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the older generation are skeptical of jobs that are not considered a good job in their time like being a youtuber or starting an online shop

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would employers show more empathy towards people who are mentally or physically disabled in 5 years time?

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would Singaporeans be more open to jobs that are not considered a "good or stable job" now?

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Does qualifications determine you future job?

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Your College Major Is Not Your Career Destiny

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Wondering what you can do with a liberal arts major? There are no useless college majors. Find out how to make yours valuable by selling your skills.

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what is considered a good job to youths in 5 years time?

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Will there be jobs for those with special abilities in the future?

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Jobs For The Disabled: 7 Companies With Inclusive Hiring - MyCareersFuture

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Living with a disability is tough enough as it is, but finding a job makes it even more challenging for persons with disabilities (PWD) in Singapore. As such, SG Enable and the Ministry of Manpower have come up with a guide to help companies better integrate those with special needs in the workplace.

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finding a good job would be tough as many jobs are taken over by AI

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The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence has promised to create new jobs and make workers more productive, but these changes have come with a cost. Since 2000, automation systems have slowly phased out many manufacturing jobs - 1.7 million of them - and white-collar jobs are now also at risk of being automated into obsolescence.

Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) Replace Jobs?

Some experts and industry insiders, however, aren't too worried about the rise of AI and remain unimpressed with the technology. While discussing AI models with the BBC, Nick Clegg, Meta's president of global affairs, went so far as to say, "In many ways, they're quite stupid." Even OpenAI founder Sam Altman believes current AI tools are "wildly overhyped."

Don't misunderstand, though; it isn't that the machines aren't rising. It's that they're rising much more slowly than some of the more breathless media coverage might have you believe - which is great news for most of those who think AI-powered technology will soon steal their jobs.

"Most of" being the operative words.

10 Jobs AI Will Replace

The consensus among many experts is that a number of professions will be totally automated in the next five to 10 years. Below are a few roles that are at risk of being taken over by AI in the near future.

How Many Jobs Will AI Replace?

Customer Service Representative

The customer service role is becoming more automated, as tools like chatbots and virtual assistants handle a broader range of customer inquiries and requests. Advancements like self-checkouts also make human workers less relevant in settings like grocery stores, reducing the number of jobs within the customer service industry.

Car and Truck Driver

Improvements in autonomous vehicles reduce the need for human drivers, impacting those in both the taxi and rideshare industries. In fact, Uber has partnered with self-driving car companies like Waymo and Aurora to give its riders more options, potentially setting up a conflict with its human drivers.

Computer Programmer

Generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Bard have raised questions about whether AI will replace writing-heavy jobs. While human language requires much more creativity and nuance, programming consists of more structured, straightforward language. ChatGPT can already be used to write code, so entry-level programming jobs may soon succumb to automation.

Research Analyst

Research-centric positions like market research analyst and financial analyst can be performed, at least to a degree, by AI. Machine learning has the ability to process large volumes of data, detect patterns and organize its findings into convenient visuals. This makes AI ideal for quickly delivering industry insights to teams without the need for human intervention.

Paralegal

Many administrative tasks completed by paralegals are within the range of AI's capabilities. With its ability to process massive amounts of complex data, AI can write legal reports, gather facts for a case, sort through documents and conduct legal research. This promises greater efficiency for legal firms, perhaps one day rendering the paralegal role obsolete.

Factory or Warehouse Worker

AI powers lots of machines in factories, performing many actions with greater speed and consistency than humans. Additionally, machine vision enables AI-powered machines in warehouses to retrieve goods and navigate their surroundings, making logistics providers less dependent on human warehouse workers.

Financial Trader

Financial traders are in charge of analyzing markets and informing investors' decisions, but AI can work through this process much faster. AI trading technologies can also predict market trends while remaining more accurate than human workers. These two factors combined with the fact that AI lowers hiring costs mean financial trader roles could disappear soon.

Travel Advisor

Travelers no longer need to rely on travel agents for personalized recommendations and travel tips. Travel platforms can leverage AI to power customer searches and make suggestions based on previous searches. Experiences like virtual tours and online informational videos also allow travelers to gather the information they want without turning to a travel agency.

Content Writer (In Some Cases)

AI content generators can already help brainstorm writing ideas and assist with repetitive content creation. Basic content marketing tasks like writing formulaic emails and short social media posts are no trouble for artificial intelligence. In some cases, AI can even produce a first draft for longer-form content, taking over many duties for human content marketers.

Graphic Designer

Graphic designers are in direct competition with AI-generated art, especially since the ability to produce this kind of art is available to the public. Tools like Lensa and DALL-E make it easy to create professional images without artistic expertise. As a result, businesses and individuals may depend less on graphic design services to produce eye-catching visuals moving forward.

9 Jobs AI Won't Replace

We can take comfort in the fact that some jobs are less likely to be replaced by AI. The jobs that AI won't be able to replicate range from creative fields to empathic jobs, as well as complex strategic jobs.

Teacher

AI-powered tools have made gains in the classroom, guiding small-group interactions and helping children grow their socio-emotional skills. But AI can't build the trust and intimacy that human teachers are able to have with their students. Human teachers may also be more equipped to resolve arguments, reach out to students' parents and handle other complex social interactions.

Nurse

Simple healthcare tasks like transporting medical supplies and retrieving patient data may fall to artificial intelligence. It's the face-to-face interactions where a human touch is essential. Providing bedside care, having hard conversations with families and assuaging the fears of patients are all situations where nurses and other health workers may be preferred over AI.

Social Worker

Social workers probably won't be replaced by AI anytime soon. The work they engage in - often with people from underserved or at-risk populations - requires a human touch and judgment. Understanding people's unique circumstances and helping them navigate stressful situations are areas humans may be better prepared for than artificial intelligence.

Therapist

Therapists perform a great deal of emotional labor, listening to people's problems and guiding them as they work through their feelings, thoughts and emotional responses. AI doesn't have the ability to grasp this aspect of humans to such a degree. And with a mental health crisis on the rise, human-led therapy is more crucial than ever to aid those who feel stuck or isolated.

Handyperson

People who work in the trades, like plumbers and electricians, often have to perform a range of manual labor and handle more in-depth human interactions - two things AI doesn't excel at. Plumbers, for example, have to demonstrate excellent eye-hand coordination to handle different appliances while displaying the soft skills needed to work with residents to resolve issues when relevant.

Lawyer

Although AI has become a major part of the legal industry, it's unlikely to replace lawyers any time soon. Lawyers are expected to possess a strong grasp of morals and ethics, relying on this knowledge to inform their legal advice. AI giving legal advice raises many ethical questions since AI doesn't have the same sense of 'right' and 'wrong' as humans.

HR Specialist

HR specialists oversee areas like recruiting, interviewing and onboarding - all processes that require high levels of personalized, human interactions. AI might be useful for screening resumes, but it may not be able to offer the kind of sensitivity and thoughtfulness required to navigate situations like layoffs, private questions about benefits and employee complaints.

Writer

Despite enjoying a boom in popularity, AI writing tools struggle to match the quality and creativity of talented human writers. Copywriters, UX writers and technical writers alike routinely exercise critical thinking in their work, such as making decisions based on audience preferences and needs. While AI tools can assist with generating ideas, the quirks of writing and human language are much harder to master.

Artist

AI art generators are skilled at producing high-quality pieces, but these pieces are only based on artworks and styles that already exist. Human artists are the ones who develop new styles and ideas that drive innovation within the artistic landscape. The livelihoods of artists will still be impacted by AI, but artistic originality resides with humans.

Benefits of AI in the Workplace

Despite fears of job loss due to automation, AI does offer major advantages to companies and workers who embrace the technology.

More Focused and Engaging Tasks

Among AI's biggest boons, many experts believe, is its ability to save humans from having to perform tedious repetitive tasks that are part of their overall duties so they're free to focus on more complex and rewarding projects - or just take some much-needed time off.

"There's always a concern that technology is displacing this current body of workers or tasks, and that's true," Sean Chou, co-founder of AI startup Catalytic, said. "But what always happens is that work, and that output, gets redirected to things that are much more productive."

More Efficient and Shorter Workdays

Some think increased productivity and efficiency might even shorten the work week. Which seems good in theory but comes with its own set of issues. Namely: how will pay and benefits be affected? And who reaps the bulk of monetary rewards? Those remain unanswered questions.

"Up to this point, technology has created more work because it's another thing you have to deal with," said Justin Adams, former CEO at Digitize.AI and vice president at its parent company Waystar. "But I think there's an inflection point where certain AI will get to a place where that actually flips."

How AI Will Create Jobs

The development of AI itself requires many humans to train and refine AI algorithms. This leads to the creation of roles that haven't existed until now. Machine learning engineers must design and oversee AI systems while AI ethics specialists ensure AI is deployed responsibly.

Chou confirms the necessity for human workers. "The number of people that are necessary to deliver better and better technology grows massively," Chou said. "So you move from worrying about the impact of high technology to actually helping to create the technology. When you look at AI, there's this nonstop need for training, for data, for maintenance, for taking care of all the exceptions that are happening. How do we monitor AI? How do we train it? How do we make sure that AI's not running amok? Those are all going to become new jobs."

Rather than completely destroying jobs, AI is shifting jobs and changing the type of work that professionals do. It's the kind of impact that the internet had upon its introduction. Chris Nicholson, CEO of machine learning company Skymind.AI, shares a similar view rooted in even more distant history.

"Everybody uses this analogy, but when the Industrial Revolution came, a certain kind of job disappeared," Nicholson said. "But many jobs, and many [new] jobs, were created. So when you think about, say, England before and after the Industrial Revolution, it wasn't a poorer place where there was less work. There was a lot more work, but it was a different kind of work."

How to Prepare for AI in the Workplace

Amazon - whose warehouses buzz with AI-powered machines and will be increasingly automated in years to come - announced that it would retrain 300,000 employees to the tune of $1.2 billion. Participation is voluntary in a program the company calls " Upskilling 2025," which is designed to teach employees skills they can apply to work in technical roles inside or outside of Amazon.

Skills to Cultivate in the Age of AI

More cynical observers might chalk that up to an expensive public relations campaign in light of less-than-flattering reports about how the company allegedly treats its workers. Besides that, Chou said, it's infeasible. Why not simply make technology that's more adaptable to more people, he wonders, so the learning curve is much lower? Retraining warehouse workers to be, say, engineers is completely unrealistic. Which isn't to say there's no value in additional education.

"I think that we should be trying to get people to understand a little bit about a lot of things so the jump is not very large and the opportunities come," said Dan Platt, senior principal of market innovation at AI company Narrative Science. "You're not going to train everybody to write in Python, but if you have people that are trained to understand the basics of engineering, or how things work, their chances [of not being displaced] are a lot higher."

For Nicholson, surviving and thriving in an increasingly AI-powered world requires a multi-pronged approach. First and foremost, he advises, "Avoid bullshit jobs. If you're bored in your job, it's probably a bullshit job and the machines will probably eat it."

Beyond that, his practical recommendations are surprisingly tech-less. And they can be summed up in two words: basic skills. For example, having solid verbal and written communication like listening, reading emotions, asking questions, writing clearly and structuring cogent arguments devoid of ambiguity.

"That's all very important," he said, "and it's also very hard for machines to do. Barring a nuclear holocaust, there will be no lack of humans who need to be communicated with."

It's also a good idea, Nicholson says, to cultivate a decent understanding of statistical concepts, calculus and algebraic linear regression in order to comprehend the " output of AI algorithms." Arming oneself with that sort of foundational knowledge is key to "being able to adapt." And in these tech-driven times, adaptation has no patience for slow pokes.

"People like to compare AI to electricity," Chou said. "And I actually agree with that analogy. But electricity took one or two generations to go from idea to widespread adoption, whereas today we're seeing the impact of technology occur much faster. And so the rate of fundamental social change is increasing, and it's taking a toll faster than people are ready and able to adapt."

But in order to survive and thrive, they must. And so, while big change is coming, a little advance planning - by workers who stand to be replaced and the companies that employ them - goes a long way.

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AI Taking Over Jobs: What to Know About the Future of Jobs

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AI promises to create new jobs and improve productivity at the expense of current roles. Learn how AI is impacting industries and reshaping the future of work.

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What are the processes/requirements to get a decent job?

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Is getting hired for a good job really the main concern for Singapore youths?

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Youth concerns include driving sustainability, helping vulnerable

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The need for Singapore to focus on environmental and sustainability initiatives, while looking after the vulnerable in society, were among the top concerns highlighted by youth at a pre-Budget 2021 dialogue yesterday. Some 170 Singaporean youth participated in the virtual event, held ahead of Budget 2021, which will be unveiled in Parliament on Feb 16.

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Readers Question: Does the level of real income grow as the economy grows? Can we say that real income grows as the economy grows? If yes, what factors surround it? Summary
In a period of positive economic growth, usually, you would expect a rise in real wages and higher pay. However, it is not guaranteed. GDP measures wages, but also profit, interest and rent.

Therefore, it is possible for GDP to increase but average wages to stagnate and even decline. - e.g. if profit takes a bigger share of GDP.

Economic growth means an increase in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

GDP is a measure of National Income / National Output / National Expenditure.

National Income measure of GDP

Wages and Salaries (compensation of employees)

Rent

Interest

Profit

Economic growth and real GDP per capita
Another issue is that we could see a rise in real GDP caused by an increase in the population. If real GDP increases 2%, but the population increases 2%, then there will be no increase in GDP per capita and average real wages will stay the same.

Approx 33% of UK real GDP growth in past decade has been caused by population growth.

See: economic growth per capita

Rise in non-wage rewards

Another factor is that pay could be affected by non-wage rewards. Suppose firms became responsible for providing private health care insurance (like the US). Wages would be cut to enable healthcare payments. GDP would not be affected but workers would see lower pay. In recent years, UK firms have become more responsible for providing private pensions.

Economic growth but fall in average wages

It is possible economic growth could lead to a rise in company profit, but companies do not share this increase in profit with their employees.

During the period 2010-2015, the UK experienced positive economic growth and rising real GDP, but average wages fell.

This was partly due to the nature of the labour market. Increased labour market flexibility and competitive pressures saw real wage growth decline. Company profit was taking bigger share of GDP.

Evidence suggests that between 2012 and 2014 corporations were retaining more profit. The total corporations gross operating surplus increased over 10% in the 12 months to 2014 Q2. This suggests firms are increasing profitability but are reluctant to spend the increased profit

See: Economic growth with falling wages
Evaluation

This experience of the UK - rising real GDP and falling wages is quite rare.In the post-war period, the UK's economic growth led to rising real wages. Also, if you look at other economies with economic growth in this period, e.g France and Germany, wages are rising. (FT)

The UK paradox is explained by several factors:

Population growth causing higher GDP, but not higher GDP per capita.

Rising in the share of profit retained by firms.

Flexible labour markets putting downward pressure on wages.

Fall in unemployment but enabled by low wage jobs/part-time job.

Low productivity growth. With low productivity, firms are keeping wages correspondingly low.

Cost-push inflation reducing real wages.

Rise in non-wage benefits (private pensions/healthcare)

GDP statistics only tell part of the story

This is an important development because GDP and economic growth is the primary economic statistic. The government can point to rising GDP in recent years. Yet, for many people, this rise in GDP may feel alien or not applicable to their situation. They don't see the effects of this economic growth - they see stagnating real wages, rising prices and poor employment prospects.
Related

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The relationship between economic growth and average pay - Economics Help

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Readers Question: Does the level of real income grow as the economy grows? Can we say that real income grows as the economy grows? If yes, what factors surround it? Summary In a period of positive economic growth, usually, you would expect a rise in real wages and higher pay.

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Is it possible to find good jobs when there are external factors such as economic downturns or Covid-19?

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SINGAPORE: In April, the future seemed certain for Brian Chee. He was about to finish his final examinations and was on track to graduate from university with a job offer in the bag.

A biotechnology company where he had completed his internship had offered him a full-time position and he was to start work in a few weeks.

But three months later, he found himself still looking for a job.

"(The company) said (the job) would start sometime in May," said the 25-year-old life sciences major, who graduated from the National University of Singapore (NUS) in June.

"Then it got pushed back to June, then to July. Then in July, they told me that it will be postponed, or it will be pushed back indefinitely because the headquarters decided that they'll be having a global hiring freeze."

The first two times the company pushed the offer back, Mr Chee was understanding. After all, there was the recession caused by COVID-19 and the company said it was its first time hiring a fresh graduate, instead of headhunting experienced individuals from other firms.

But when the company eventually told him that he would have to wait indefinitely for the role, Mr Chee decided he could not continue to wait without doing anything in the meantime.

And with student loans to pay off, he was starting to worry.

He sent out 30 applications in the first week of his job search. But his urgency in wanting to secure a job meant that he had to do some prioritising.

"I wanted it to be something that was relevant to my degree or my major, so that's why I looked for positions in the healthcare, pharmaceutical industry ... and then after that, I looked at location," said Mr Chee.

Which was why he was "thankful" when, in the second week of his job hunting, international drug development firm Covance came back with a traineeship offer as a clinical study coordinator in the clinical research and pharmaceutical industry for 12 months.

Although his workplace is located in Jurong East, this is something he "can live with", said Mr Chee, who lives in Pasir Ris.

"At least I have a position," he said.

For many like Mr Chee, the COVID-19 pandemic, which has dragged the Singapore economy into its worst recession since independence, has had a bigger impact than rushed goodbyes in school, cancelled graduation trips and disrupted lifestyles.

Amid rising retrenchment and unemployment rates, some of these fresh school leavers - about 50,000 from various tertiary institutions in Singapore and overseas - found themselves stumbling into a grim reality with hopes of ideal careers and salaries dashed.

The biggest impact is likely in those industries which have come under the most pressure, such as aerospace and aviation as well as tourism and hospitality. There are sectors still holding up and hiring - such as information and communications technology (ICT), financial services and manufacturing - but overall, the jobs market is challenging.

There were 42,400 job vacancies in June, down from 46,300 three months before, according to data from the Ministry of Manpower (MOM).

In turn, the seasonally adjusted ratio of these vacancies to unemployed people fell from 0.71 in March to 0.57 in June - meaning there were fewer than six vacancies for every 10 unemployed people.

"This (ratio) is the lowest since the third quarter of 2009 and we haven't seen the worst of the labour market yet," said DBS senior economist Irvin Seah. "It is a very tough climate."

While they knew it wouldn't be easy, the extent of the impact - much-longer job searches, job or internship offers postponed or rescinded - still caught people off guard.

Mr Muhammad Ismail Muhammad Ishak, for one, did not expect to send out 150 job applications over the past nine months, and not hearing back from any firm for the first half of the year. Learning from friends about offers being rescinded did not help.

"I got a little sad when all the jobs I applied for did not get back to me," said the 25-year-old who studied mechanical engineering in NUS. "I had a second class upper honours; I made sure my electives were non-engineering; I've done internships ... but it seemed like these were still not enough."

To keep going, he signed up for various courses in the emerging technology industry over the past few months, as part of picking up new skills to beef up his resume.

Others like material science engineering graduate Wayne Lee recalibrated their expectations in hope of striking a balance between interest and reality on the ground.

"I think before we graduated, we had dreams of working in a certain role (or) environment. But when COVID-19 struck and opportunities vanished, we panicked."

The 25-year-old, who also recently graduated from NUS, had wanted to follow his passion in the social work sector but as weeks turned into months, he knew he had to start casting a wider net. Anxiety hit the roof when Mr Lee found out that his mother lost her job in June.

"Suddenly that luxury of thinking that 'My family is ok' and I have time to find a job disappeared," he recalled.

"Even though my parents said they had savings, not knowing how long this pandemic will last made me feel that I have to get a job to at least make things more comfortable at home."
GOVERNMENT HELP
The challenges faced by this new cohort of workers have not gone unnoticed.

As part of the slew of support measures rolled out by the Government, the SGUnited Jobs and Skills Package aims to create close to 100,000 opportunities, with 21,000 out of 25,000 traineeship positions going to local first-time jobseekers.

These traineeships can give fresh graduates opportunities to develop industry-relevant skills and build professional networks, which will help boost their credentials to potential employers, said MOM.

University graduates will get a monthly training allowance of between S$1,800 and S$2,500 under the SGUnited Traineeships programme, of which 80 per cent is paid by the Government. The allowance for polytechnic graduates ranges from S$1,300 to S$1,800, while graduates from the Institute of Technical Education (ITE) receive S$1,100 to S$1,500.

This week, Manpower Minister Josephine Teo said in Parliament that more than 20,500 traineeship and company attachment opportunities have been made available under the SGUnited Traineeship and SGUnited Mid-Career programmes.

More than 2,800 job seekers have taken up these opportunities.

The minister did not provide a breakdown in terms of fresh graduates who took up these traineeship opportunities. But in a separate speech in Parliament last month, she said more than 1,000 fresh graduate trainees have been placed under the inaugural programme.

Observers have described the government-backed inaugural traineeship programme as a step in the right direction.

ManpowerGroup Singapore's country manager Linda Teo said it helps fresh graduates to gain experience and exposure, especially in jobs that they were interested in but not directly related to their field of study, as well as grow their network.

The programme is an attempt to prevent a "lost generation of fresh graduates", said Mr Adrian Choo, founder of career consultancy Career Agility International.

Citing personal observations, he noted that such a situation had occurred during 1998 to 2003 when big firms cut back on hiring, especially fresh graduates, as the local economy dealt with successive hits from the Asian Financial Crisis, the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak.

That later resulted in a shortage of talent for middle management roles in these big firms, said Mr Choo.

"The Government is recognising that and they don't want this to happen again. That is why they are having these traineeships - a form of subsidised employment," he added.

Recent graduates who spoke to CNA said that they were glad for the traineeship opportunities, in lieu of having a full-time job.

For 26-year-old Shivaram Rasu, currently doing a traineeship as a research assistant with the Lee Kong Chian Natural History Museum, a traineeship is about getting experience.

"I was looking at options of getting into research (via) a full-time job. But the thing is the economy isn't so stable now, so I decided to try out a traineeship instead.

"The pay is obviously lower but the job scope is about the same. so I'm glad I'm able to get experience in the field because it's still relevant to me," he said.

Similarly, while Mr Chee hopes the 12-month traineeship would eventually turn into a full-time position, he said he is just "glad" for the chance to gain some experience, which could put him in better stead for his next job hunt - a prospect which he has already had to adjust his expectations for.

"I'll expect that the pay will definitely be lower than before the recession," he said, as he discussed future expectations for his post-traineeship job.

"Competition for the job will definitely be harder ... because there will be more people applying for the same position."

Another programme that helps ITE and polytechnic graduates in their job search is Workforce Singapore's Career Starter Programme.

However, a spokesperson told CNA last month that they have not seen a "significant" increase in the take-up for workshops and personalised one-to-one career coaching, "partly due to the current COVID-19 situation".
SUPPORT FROM SCHOOLS
Tertiary institutions have also stepped up to help their graduates.

The Singapore Management University (SMU), NUS and the Nanyang Technological University (NTU) curate job offers on their respective job portals and have held virtual career fairs for their students.

Universities and polytechnics have also extended career guidance for graduates, with SMU's career coaches "proactively" reaching out to all its 2020 graduates to check on their employment status and offer coaching if they have not secured employment.

The school also increased its number of online Employability Clinics, giving priority to those seeking full-time jobs, said Mr Sim Cher Young, director of the Singapore Management University's (SMU) Dato' Kho Hui Meng Career Centre. SMU has 1,884 Bachelor's degree graduates this year.

Republic Polytechnic (RP) said it provides individual guidance to graduates through its personalised one-on-one e-counselling sessions, with general feedback being "very positive".

The NUS Centre for Future-ready Graduates "intensified" its graduates' training to prepare them for digital interviews, and providing career webinars to help them understand the job market, write effective resumes and participate in career networking.

The university is also tapping its network to identify full-time jobs, internships and traineeship opportunities for its graduates, said the NUS spokesperson. NUS has 7,000 first-degree graduates this year.

Another NUS initiative compiles the CVs of graduating students into a book by sector, giving them to employers for recruitment. In addition, students receive a weekly curated list of jobs, sorted by major.

For those who prefer to continue their education, they can opt for the Continuing Education and Training (CET) modules with their respective tertiary institutes.

NUS, SIT, Ngee Ann Polytechnic (NP), Singapore Polytechnic and RP provide a number of free CET modules for their graduates.

Meanwhile, NTU has given its Class of 2020 an additional S$1,600 in alumni credits - on top of the existing S$1,600 for all alumni - that can be to offset fees for a suite of CET courses. The bonus credits are valid until June 2021 and are part of the university's two COVID-19 relief packages.

Temasek Polytechnic (TP) identified 17 programmes with up to 2,100 training places, which can equip students with "in-demand knowledge and skills that will put them in good stead when the economy picks up", said its spokesperson.

There are also 28 post-diploma courses that graduates can choose from.

In addition, TP provides a one-time credit of S$500 to each graduate to sign up for these courses, to ensure that "students are left with no out-of-pocket expenses" as they upskill and expand their skillsets.

Graduates can also take advantage of full-time and traineeship positions with their universities or polytechnics.

Under the SGUnited Traineeships Programme, SIT hires graduates to work on projects done in collaboration with industry wherever possible.

NUS has offered 200 full-time salaried positions and 800 paid traineeships under its NUS Resilience and Growth Initiative, which was announced on Apr 24.

And NP has created 100 traineeship positions and more than 80 campus jobs. To date, 50 per cent of these traineeships in Learning and Design, and 50 per cent of the campus jobs, have been taken up, said a spokesperson.

In the longer run, the tertiary institutions are working to improve the employability of future graduates by updating their curriculum.

SMU uses real-world settings in their courses, while parts of its curriculum are experiential, exposing students to immediate industry problems and questions.

The university also emphasises international exposure and experience. To that for the current academic term amid the travel restrictions, the university tapped on faculty collaboration with foreign instructors and remote work that allow students to work on industry or community service projects with overseas partners.

NP too, has introduced digital components to its Diploma of Tourism and Resort Management and Diploma in Hotel and Leisure Facilities Management to keep its students competitive amid digital transformation and disruption.
LONGER-TERM WOES?
But the distress faced by the class of 2020 could go beyond a discouraging job hunt in the near term.

Some overseas studies have found more worrying records of longer-lasting negative outcomes associated with graduating into a recession, such as lower earnings for years.

One such study by economists Philip Oreopoulos, Till Von Wachter and Andrew Heisz, looked at Canadian college students who joined the workforce during the downturns in the 1980s and 1990s.

This batch of graduates, according to the 2006 study, saw lower earnings in the initial stage - about 9 per cent less than those who graduated in better economic conditions - as they tend to start out at smaller, lower-paying firms or jobs that are less well-matched to their skills. This setback in earnings can stick around for as long as 10 years, with the graduates playing financial catch-up by switching jobs more frequently than others. By then, they had lost an average of 5 per cent of their lifetime earnings.

Another study focused on those who left school during the 1982 recession in the United States and found that the impact on earnings could last for 10 to 15 years. The 2019 study by researchers Hannes Schwandt and Till Von Wachter also noted longer-term chain effects in other aspects of life, such as higher divorce, childlessness and death rates by the time these graduates reached middle age.

Reading about these studies can be unnerving, said Mr Ismail.

"The long-term consequences in the overseas study I read gave me a shock, especially the potential earning losses," added the mechanical engineering graduate.

"That's money that can be used for investment, extra learning or anything else so it made me feel like I really need to take this seriously otherwise I might end up as one of these recession graduates."

A 2011 study by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) attempted to examine the long-term impact of recessions on the wages of local graduates by tracking those who entered the labour force between 2000 and 2007.

It found that while there was an initial wage loss for those who graduated amid a weak economy and dismal job market, this negative hit would "diminish over time and fully disappear after three years in the labour market".

"Singapore's labour market would thus appear to be efficient enough to prevent the perpetuation of downward wage persistence for 'unlucky' cohorts of graduates," the MTI study concluded, although it noted several caveats.

For one, the longitudinal data spanning just eight years was a "short timeframe" that covered only one recession when the Singapore economy shrank 1.1 per cent during the dotcom bust in 2001.

Wage data for many of the graduates in the study were also shorter than four years, meaning that researchers were unable to observe how the "unlucky" cohorts of graduates fared against their peers after catching up in wages.

"We cannot rule out the possibility that entry economic conditions could have long-term negative effects not captured within the period of observation," the study said, adding that similar studies conducted overseas tend to have much longer observational periods of 12 to 22 years.

The MTI study also noted how it was unable to determine whether recessions affect segments of university graduates differently, as information on individual ability and job switches was not available.

BIGGER HIT ON ECONOMY, HIGHER RISKS?
Some observers of the local economy said results from the MTI's study could boil down to Singapore's ability to bounce back relatively quickly from past downturns and having low unemployment.

"Most of the studies are based on overseas economies. Singapore is quite different," said Mr Seah.

Singapore has "a nimble economic structure", with the Government having much-needed resources to put together "highly responsive" policies when a crisis strikes, he added.

"We are able to reinvent ourselves quickly during major crises ... and that in some way, contributed to how we don't see that kind of permanent effect on those who happen to graduate during the bad times," said the DBS economist, noting that Singapore is also a meritocratic society that rewards individuals as long as they work hard.

The economy has also been able to churn out "more jobs than can be filled" by the local labour force, throwing up career and wage progression opportunities, said CIMB Private Banking economist Song Seng Wun.

Whether Singapore can keep doing so will depend on how it maintains its economic competitiveness and relevance as a global business hub in a post-pandemic world, he added.

"It's typical in a recessionary environment to see more cautious hiring and pressure on wages, unless you are in sectors that are in demand. When the broader economy improves and you see businesses more confident about the future and thinking about expanding or hiring, you will be able to ride along with the recovery, switch jobs and command better salaries.

"Wages will adjust in a normal cycle when demand for labour goes up so we mustn't get stuck in the notion that just because you are starting at the lower end, you'll always be at the lower end unless you're in a sector that's no longer in demand," Mr Song said.

"So long as Singapore stays relevant to the world by continuing to create new industries and remaining an attractive destination for businesses to set up shop, there will always be job creation.

"If more jobs are created than can be filled by the local labour force, then you should never have any doubt that you will be able to ride on the recovery," he said, adding that individual skillsets also matter in a changing world.

Unprecedented help is also at hand as the Government recognises the toll of a historic recession, said Mr Song. Apart from the national traineeship programme, other initiatives to help firms adapt and survive the pandemic also serve to cushion the impact on fresh graduates.

Echoing that, Mr Seah said the slew of support measures unveiled thus far has been "significantly stronger and far more comprehensive" compared to those in past crises.

Apart from saving jobs, the Government is also looking at job creation with the new Emerging Stronger task force looking at reinventing the economy for a post-pandemic world.

Mr Seah cited his personal experience of being a "recession graduate" - not once but twice.

He was a fresh university graduate in 1999 when the Singapore economy was still reeling from the Asian Financial Crisis. After six months of fruitless job hunting, he decided to head back to school but found himself in a similar situation after finishing his Master's degree in 2001. That year, the economy fell into a recession due to the dotcom bubble burst in the US.

"Back in 1999, we didn't have initiatives like the Jobs Bank. You just rely on the Straits Times' recruit section that comes every Saturday. I'll spend half the day going through every single job advertisement and the rest of the day typing out my application letters so that I can mail them out on Sunday."

"I sent out about 40 applications for all sorts of jobs ... but I didn't get a single phone call," Mr Seah recounted. The discouraging job hunt repeated itself in 2001 for about six months until he landed his first job.

While graduates like him had a rough start, they eventually managed to catch up financially and professionally, said the DBS economist, citing his own experience as well as that of his friends.

"Many of my friends are doing well. I don't think there was a lost year so to speak," he said.

With the step-up in help from the Government for fresh graduates amid the ongoing crisis, he added: "It is definitely a good thing that policies are headed in this direction, which is why I'm even more optimistic about the graduates' longer-term career prospects."

To be sure, there are others who hold a more cautious view.

The severity of the economic slump and the likelihood of a protracted recovery given the uncertain nature of the coronavirus pandemic could leave more economic scars on the class of 2020, according to NUS senior economics lecturer Kelvin Seah and Maybank Kim Eng economist Chua Hak Bin.

"Never before have we seen a crisis so serious to the extent of having a 'circuit breaker' and shutting our borders so I'd imagine that the impact could be worse than anything we've experienced before," said Dr Seah from NUS.

Dr Chua said the coronavirus-induced slump has resulted in "massive" job losses thus far, with the full-year number likely to be between 180,000 to 220,000. While the economy could see positive growth next year, it would only be in 2022 that economic growth will return to pre-pandemic levels. This means a "sluggish and choppy" recovery ahead.

"We don't know how long this virus will be here for and even when a vaccine becomes available next year, most still think that it would not be widely distributed so quickly. Many of the border controls, for example, could remain with us for some time," he explained.

"To us, it's more of a U-shaped recovery and it will differ across sectors," he added, noting that while a still-growing industry like manufacturing will probably emerge from contraction by the fourth quarter, others like aviation, tourism and hospitality could be in for a long winter for as long as four years.

Graduates in these sectors, as a result, will inevitably be hit more than their peers.

"For people who have trained or invested in education for these sectors, they may not go into these sectors. There will be a lot of movement of workers in sectors; it will be difficult and that is why job matching and re-skilling is so important," said Dr Chua.

"So it looks as if this recession is going to leave a lot more scars than the last one."

While COVID-19 has the most visible impact economically, there are other consequences at play too, said social scientists.

In the short-term, graduates will likely experience the "fear and anxiety" with being unable to land a "decent job" expected of a graduate and young adult, which enables them to "exit their adolescence", said NUS sociologist Tan Ern Ser.

And with the disruption of their education, this could affect students who establish their social networks within the university, said NTU social scientist Andy Ho.

"People who really establish their social network in the university system, that network has been disrupted drastically, and not being able to maintain that social network plays a potential role in affecting their identity formation," he said.

As university is a "critical age" for people to form their identities, not being able to have closure on that chapter would affect them "for sure", added Associate Professor Ho.

With students having to "refix their expectations" of graduating in "normal circumstances" which is "not normal anymore", this comes with a cost for their emotional well-being and quality of life, he added.

In the long-term, uncertainty over their economic situation could lead to graduates prioritising their careers and delaying marriage and childbirth.

"I believe young Singaporeans believe in putting their careers on a sure footing so as to be able to attain a sustainable, desirable family lifestyle. And if they can't, they would likely delay marriage and childbirth. Or they may just cohabit," said Dr Tan.

WHAT MORE TO DO
With COVID-19 set to bring about long-lasting impact on workers, jobs and businesses, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat noted ongoing talk of a global "lockdown generation" who will have their skills, employability and incomes permanently affected even after the pandemic ends.

Singapore must work to prevent a " COVID Generation" of workers and students, he had said in June during a wrap-up speech on the Government's fourth tranche of relief measures in which the SGUnited Jobs and Skills Package were part of.

On top of existing measures, improving job mobility is one area where more can be done.

Tampines GRC Member of Parliament Desmond Choo described this as " paramount" with the coronavirus-induced recession being unprecedented in scale, depth and duration. Its negative impact on fresh graduates could "reasonably ... last longer" than the three years mentioned in MTI's 2011 study, he said.

Companies should be encouraged to convert traineeships into permanent roles, while the Government can also customise incentives via the Jobs Growth Incentive to nudge employers to do so, he suggested during the debate on the President's Address last month.

Echoing that, Associate Professor Walter Theseira said: "It is through those job switches that graduates eventually return to their better-matched career paths (or) jobs.

"Hence, what we should think about, to improve the chances of that in the future, is whether our policies support good job mobility."

While he is not aware of any study on structural impediments to job mobility here, the Singapore University of Social Sciences economist pointed out a few areas of concerns: Employment bonds, no-compete clauses found in work contracts and non-universal healthcare benefits which may deter some from switching jobs.

It is also critical for Singapore to take "a moderated approach to foreign employment" even when the economy recovers.

"This is because we want to ensure that our own people have the best chance of being considered first for upgrading job switches as the economy gets better," Dr Theseira said, noting that this will be painful for businesses who will be looking to expand urgently in good times.

"But if we don't do it, we may leave behind Singaporeans who were mismatched into jobs because they graduated in a recession," he added.
SOLDIERING ON
For now, fresh graduates will have to be realistic in their expectations and keep in mind that graduation is not the end to learning.

"Don't be too picky ... Get your foot in the door first and learn", said Mr Choo.

Those in badly-hit industries can try building up transferable skills and relevant experience so as to be able to secure jobs once demand returns, said Ms Teo from ManpowerGroup Singapore.

Overall, "very different" skill sets will be required in a post-pandemic world, which is why one's ability and openness to learning will be critical, she added. These include communication, negotiation, analytical thinking and other people-oriented skills, which are transferable and in demand by employers across industries.

Mr Choo added that the building up of such skills will require people to actively manage their careers.

"Don't count on your employer to develop your career. Be active in thinking where the growing industries are, the skills needed and how you can get those skills," said the career coach.

"Even if it was true that people who graduate in a recession may not find a footing as good as someone graduating in a good year, it's one thing to sit down and cry and another to actively manage your way back into the opportunity area."

All these are not lost on the young graduates whom CNA spoke with.

"Even the CEO of PayPal has said that whatever transformation that is supposed to happen in five years is now condensed into a few months. Obsolete skill sets in a shifting economy is now a legit concern," said Mr Lee, who started a full-time job about two months ago.

Noting that he is now "more cautious" in career planning, he added: "Now more than ever, you need to constantly upgrade yourself."

Mr Ismail, who turned his anxieties into action by signing up for various courses over the past few months, has found a traineeship position as a business analyst with DBS after taking professional certificate classes in financial technology with his alma mater.

He said he is aware that he will need to be able to apply what he has learnt "to make the skills real", and is determined to make the best out of the traineeship even though he is unsure if it will pan out into a permanent role.

"For the next nine months, I'll be a sponge - just absorb everything I can. Be brave to say 'I don't know' and if there are criticisms, take them humbly. This whole experience has made me more hardy, I feel."
Download our app or subscribe to our Telegram channel for the latest updates on the coronavirus outbreak: https://cna.asia/telegram

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IN FOCUS: Graduating into a COVID-19 jobs market - short-term challenges and longer-term issues?

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SINGAPORE: In April, the future seemed certain for Brian Chee. He was about to finish his final examinations and was on track to graduate from university with a job offer in the bag.

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how much is considered a good pay in SIngapore?

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Working Adults: What Is A Good Salary In Singapore?

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When you just started working, you would most likely be thinking of how much you are earning compared to the average Singaporean. This article serves a simple guide and representation of the income distribution among Singaporeans in the world's most expensive country with unique insights.

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Having a good job gives us a sense of purpose and boost our overall morale

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Will there be enough jobs that offer an average pay. The Article shows that the average pay of Singaporeans is $5,877

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The Ultimate Salary Guide For Singaporeans

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Are you being paid enough? What should your asking salary be when you search for your new job? This comprehensive guide to understand the various salary ranges for the different occupations, across sectors like techology, healthcare, human resource, finance, accounting and logistics in Singapore.

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Does a good job refers to the high qualifications involved to be hired or the money earned from the job?

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will 5 years make a big difference in job opportunities?

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Just five years ago, higher education as we knew it appeared headed toward a precipice.

MOOCs from Stanford, MIT, and Harvard held out the prospect of a handful of institutions providing "the best courses from the top professors" to students across the world for free. Meanwhile, for-profit universities - with little competition from existing brick and mortar institutions - were tapping the most rapidly growing segments of the student population: the working adults, family caregivers, and low-income students who were seeking marketable skills.

Radical innovation was in the air, as transformational educational models - like Minerva's or the University of the People's or the University of North Texas Dallas's (with a non-tenured, non-research-oriented faculty offering a narrow range of career-aligned majors) - sprang up.

Five years later, MOOCs continue to grow and, for the first time, generate a significant amount of revenue. 58 million students registered for MOOCs in 2016, 23 million for the first time, and, thanks to revenue resulting from pay walls, course and platform fees, and paid access to certificates, instructors, and student support, earned an estimated $100 million. At the same time, for-profit institutions enrolled nearly 3 million of the more than 19 million college students in the United States.

Nevertheless, higher education's existential crisis was over. The most radical forces for disruption had faded. MOOCs and various transformational models failed to attract substantial numbers of undergraduates. For-profits' enrollment rapidly fell under pressure from government regulators. Use of interactive courseware, like OLI's, and even OER seemingly stalled. Free and low-cost options, like ASU's Global Freshman Academy, failed to find a substantial audience.

Still, the higher education ecosystem had undergone a sea change. At the broad access institutions that serve the overwhelming majority of students, an unprecedented focus on student success, both in terms of academic and post-graduation outcomes, educational equity, and affordability arose, along with an unparalleled willingness to rethink existing ways of doing business.

Institutions began to test new curricular pathways that were simpler and more transparent, coherent, and intentionally designed; novel pedagogies informed by the science of learning; innovative delivery modes that emphasized flexibility; and state-of-the-art student services that were robust, proactive, and data-driven. Ferment and a willingness to think outside of traditional boxes were in the air, as institutions and foundations explored fresh approaches to assessment, credentialing, and transcripting.

A series of forces - demographic, behavioral, financial, and political - had combined to drive these transformations. Many more non-traditional students, often the graduates of underperforming high schools, enrolled in colleges and universities, and too few ever earned a degree. Many more students acquired credits from multiple institutions, including high schools, threatening lower division enrollment and existing business models. As per student, inflation-adjusted public funding stagnated or even declined, institutions suddenly realized that their financial sustainability now hinged upon their retention and graduation rates, prompting many to turn to vendors - like EAB or Civitas Learning - that promised to help out.

Perhaps most importantly, the political context had shifted. In the wake of the Great Recession, concern about student debt, attainment gaps, graduation rates, and learning and employment outcomes greatly intensified.

Although the threat of radical disruption abated, there was no reason to think that higher education has achieved a new steady state. Costs - for instruction, financial aid, technology, support services, compliance with federal and state laws and regulations, and facilities - continue to rise above the inflation rate and neither public investment, revenue from continuing education, nor philanthropy or grants and contracts are able to make up the difference. Enrollment trends, too, pose severe challenges, as the proportion of students requiring financial aid, remediation, and wrap-around supports increases and as institutions in areas with declining numbers of high school graduates compete aggressively for students.

Public policy - including performance-based funding, demands that institutions make credit transfer more seamless, and mandates that programs identify the marketable skills their students acquire - presents additional challenges. So, too, does competition from a new breed of alternate providers, including coding boot camps and low-cost competency-based programs like Western Governors University.

In the meantime, standards for a high-quality education continue to rise. There is a widespread sense that student access to experiential learning and high impact pedagogies - including mentored research, internships, service learning opportunities, and study abroad - should increase. A quality education, many believe, needs to be immersive, activity-focused, well-supported, and technology-enhanced, featuring advanced simulations, maker spaces, and expanded interactions with faculty.

Providing such a rich educational experience at a time when institutions are under extreme financial pressure will not be easy. What is clear is that business as usual is not an option.

The "artisanal" approach to course development, in which individual faculty members create all their courses wholly on their own, without any assistance from instructional designers, technologists, and assessment experts, will decline. So, too, will traditional lecture courses. Fewer faculty, I suspect, will be able to decide, largely on their own, what and when to teach. Faculty members, especially those in the humanities, are likely to be tasked with placing much more emphasis on developing their students' "21st century literacies" and soft skills.

Yet at the same time faculty will have expanded opportunities to architect much more meaningful learning experiences, work collaboratively with colleagues from other departments to design learning pathways, engage in rigorous research on student learning, and devote their time and energies to student mentoring.

Historical change always involves trade-offs. If higher education is to serve as society's primary vehicle for social mobility, if our broad access institutions are going to successfully address society's class divide, we need to view this brave new world not as a declension from a mythical golden age, but as an exciting opportunity for innovation and transformation.
Steven Mintz is Executive Director of the University of Texas System's Institute for Transformational Learning and Professor of History at the University of Texas at Austin.

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What a Difference Five Years Make | Higher Ed Gamma

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Just five years ago, higher education as we knew it appeared headed toward a precipice. MOOCs from Stanford, MIT, and Harvard held out the prospect of a handful of institutions providing "the best courses from the top professors" to students across the world for free.

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will economic growth affect the definition of high salary?

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will job opportunities decrease in the near future because of advancement in technology?

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The list of new technologies grows every day. Robots, Augmented Reality, algorithms, and machine-to-machine communications help people with a range of different tasks.(1) These technologies are broad-based in their scope and significant in their ability to transform existing businesses and personal lives. They have the potential to ease people's lives and improve their personal and business dealings.(2) Technology is becoming much more sophisticated and this is having a substantial impact on the workforce.(3)

In this paper, I explore the impact of robots, artificial intelligence, and machine learning on the workforce and public policy. If society needs fewer workers due to automation and robotics, and many social benefits are delivered through jobs, how are people outside the workforce for a lengthy period of time going to get health care and pensions? These are profound questions for public policy and we need to figure out how to deliver social benefits in the new digital economy.

Emerging Technologies

Robots

Industrial robots are expanding in magnitude around the developed world. In 2013, for example, there were an estimated 1.2 million robots in use. This total rose to around 1.5 million in 2014 and is projected to increase to about 1.9 million in 2017.(4) Japan has the largest number with 306,700, followed by North America (237,400), China (182,300), South Korea (175,600), and Germany (175,200). Overall, robotics is expected to rise from a $15-billion sector now to $67 billion by 2025.(5)

According to an RBC Global Asset Management study, the costs of robots and automation have fallen substantially. It used to be that the "high costs of industrial robots restricted their use to few high-wage industries like the auto industry. However, in recent years, the average costs of robots have fallen, and in a number of key industries in Asia, the cost of robots and the unit costs of low-wage labor are converging... Robots now represent a viable alternative to labor."(6)

In the contemporary world, there are many robots that perform complex functions. According to a presentation on robots:

The early 21st century saw the first wave of companionable social robots. They were small cute pets like AIBO, Pleo, and Paro. As robotics become more sophisticated, thanks largely to the smart phone, a new wave of social robots has started, with humanoids Pepper and Jimmy and the mirror-like Jibo, as well as Geppetto Avatars' software robot, Sophie. A key factor in a robot's ability to be social is their ability to correctly understand and respond to people's speech and the underlying context or emotion.(7)

These machines are capable of creative actions. Anthropologist Eitan Wilf of Hebrew University of Jerusalem says that sociable robots represent "a cultural resource for negotiating problems of intentionality."(8) He describes a "jazz-improvising humanoid robot marimba player" that can interpret music context and respond creatively to improvisations on the part of other performers. Designers can put it with a jazz band, and the robot will ad lib seamlessly with the rest of the group. If someone were listening to the music, that person could not discern the human from the robot performer.

Amazon has organized a "picking challenge" designed to see if robots can "autonomously grab items from a shelf and place them in a tub." The firm has around 50,000 people working in its warehouses and it wants to see if robots can perform the tasks of selecting items and moving them around the warehouse. During the competition, a Berlin robot successfully completed ten of the twelve tasks. To move goods around the facility, the company already uses 15,000 robots and it expects to purchase additional ones in the future.(9)

In the restaurant industry, firms are using technology to remove humans from parts of food delivery. Some places, for example, are using tablets that allow customers to order directly from the kitchen with no requirement of talking to a waiter or waitress. Others enable people to pay directly, obviating the need for cashiers. Still others tell chefs how much of an ingredient to add to a dish, which cuts down on food expenses.(10) Other experimentalists are using a robot known as Nao to help people deal with stress. In a pilot project called "Stress Game," Thi-Hai-Ha Dang and Adriana Tapus subject people to a board game where they have to collect as many hand objects as they can. During the test, stress is altered through game difficulty and noises when errors are made. The individuals are wired to a heart monitor so that Nao can help people deal with stress. When the robot feels human stress levels increasing, it provides coaching designed to decrease the tension. Depending on the situation, it can respond in empathetic, encouraging, or challenging ways. In this way, the "robot with personality" is able to provide dynamic feedback to the experimental subjects and help them deal with tense activities.(11)

Computerized Algorithms

There are computerized algorithms that have taken the place of human transactions. We see this in the stock exchanges, where high-frequency trading by machines has replaced human decision making. People submit buy and sell orders, and computers match them in the blink of an eye without human intervention. Machines can spot trading inefficiencies or market differentials at a very small scale and execute trades that make money for people.(12)

Some individuals specialize in arbitrage trading, whereby the algorithms see the same stocks having different market values. Humans are not very efficient at spotting price differentials but computers can use complex mathematical formulas to determine where there are trading opportunities. Fortunes have been made by mathematicians who excel in this type of analysis.(13)

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence refers to "machines that respond to stimulation consistent with traditional responses from humans, given the human capacity for contemplation, judgment and intention."(14) It incorporates critical reasoning and judgment into response decisions. Long considered a visionary advance, AI is now here and being incorporated in a variety of different areas. It is being used in finance, transportation, aviation, and telecommunications. Expert systems "make decisions which normally require a human level of expertise."(15) These systems help humans anticipate problems or deal with difficulties as they come up.

There is growing applicability of artificial intelligence in many industries.(16) It is being used to take the place of humans in a variety of areas. For example, it is being used in space exploration, advanced manufacturing, transportation, energy development, and health care. By tapping into the extraordinary processing power of computers, humans can supplement their own skills and improve productivity through artificial intelligence.

Impact on the Workforce

The rapid increase in emerging technologies suggests that they are having a substantial impact on the workforce. Many of the large tech firms have achieved broad economic scale without a large number of employees. For example, Derek Thompson writes: "Google is worth $370 billion but has only about 55,000 employees-less than a tenth the size of AT&T's workforce in its heyday [in the 1960s]."(17) According to economist Andrew McAfee: "We are facing a time when machines will replace people for most of the jobs in the current economy, and I believe it will come not in the crazy distant future."(18)

In a number of fields, technology is substituting for labor, and this has dramatic consequences for middle-class jobs and incomes. Cornell University engineer Hod Lipson argues that "for a long time the common understanding was that technology was destroying jobs but also creating new and better ones. Now the evidence is that technology is destroying jobs and indeed creating new and better ones but also fewer ones."(19)

Martin Ford issues an equally strong warning. In his book, The Lights in the Tunnel, he argues that "as technology accelerates, machine automation may ultimately penetrate the economy to the extent that wages no longer provide the bulk of consumers with adequate discretionary income and confidence in the future. If this issue is not addressed, the result will be a downward economic spiral."(20) Continuing, he warns that "at some point in the future-it might be many years or decades from now-machines will be able to do the jobs of a large percentage of the 'average' people in our population, and these people will not be able to find new jobs."

Firms have discovered that robotics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can replace humans and improve accuracy, productivity, and efficiency of operations. During the Great Recession of 2008-09, many businesses were forced to downsize their workforce for budgetary reasons. They had to find ways to maintain operations through leaner workforces. One business leader I know had five hundred workers for his $100 million business and now has the same size workforce even though the company has grown to $250 million in revenues. He did this by automating certain functions and using robots and advanced manufacturing techniques to operate the firm.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) compiles future employment projections. In its most recent analysis, the agency predicts that 15.6 million new positions will be created between 2012 and 2022. This amounts to growth of about 0.5 percent per year in the labor force.

The health-care and social assistance sector is expected to grow the most with an annual rate of 2.6 percent. This will add around five million new jobs over that decade. That is about one-third of all the new jobs expected to be created.(21) Other areas that are likely to experience growth include professional services (3.5 million), construction (1.6 million), leisure and hospitality (1.3 million), state and local government (929,000), finance (751,000), and education (675,000).

Interestingly, in light of technology advances, the information sector is one of the areas expected to shrink in jobs. BLS projections anticipate that about 65,000 jobs will be lost there over the coming decade. Even though technology is revolutionizing many businesses, it is doing this by transforming operations, not increasing the number of jobs. Technology can boost productivity and improve efficiency, but does so by reducing the number of employees needed to generate the same or even higher levels of production.

Manufacturing is another area thought to lose jobs. The BLS expects the United States to lose 550,000 jobs, while the federal government will shed 407,000 positions, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting will drop 223,000 jobs.(22) These sectors are the ones thought to be least likely to generate new positions in the coming decade.

Since BLS projections make few assumptions about emerging technologies, it is likely that their numbers underestimate the disruptive impact of these developments. It is hard to quantify the way that robots, artificial intelligence, and sensors will affect the workforce because we are in the early stages of the technology revolution. It is hard to be definitive about emerging trends because it is not clear how new technologies will affect various jobs.

But there are estimates of the likely impact of computerization on many occupations. Oxford University researchers Carl Frey and Michael Osborn claim that technology will transform many sectors of life. They studied 702 occupational groupings and found that "forty-seven percent of US workers have a high probability of seeing their jobs automated over the next twenty years."(23) According to their analysis, telemarketers, title examiners, hand sewers, mathematical technicians, insurance underwriters, watch repairers, cargo agents, tax preparers, photographic process workers, new accounts clerks, library technicians, and data entry keyers have a ninety-nine percent of having their jobs computerized. At the other end of the spectrum, recreational therapists, mechanic supervisors, emergency management directors, mental health social workers, audiologists, occupational therapists, health-care social workers, oral surgeons, supervisors of fire fighters, and dieticians have less than a one percent chance of having their tasks computerized. They base their analysis of improving levels of computerization, wage levels, and education required in different fields.(24) In addition, we know that fields such as health care and education have been slow to embrace the technology revolution, but are starting to embrace new models. Innovations in personalized learning and mobile health mean that many schools and hospitals are shifting from traditional to computerized service delivery. Educators are using massive, open, online courses (MOOCs) and tablet-based instruction, while health-care providers are relying on medical sensors, electronic medical records, and machine learning to diagnose and evaluate health treatments.

Hospitals used to be staffed with people who personally delivered the bulk of medical treatment. But health providers now are storing information in electronic medical records and data-sharing networks are connecting lab tests, clinical data, and administration information in order to promote greater efficiency. Patients surf the web for medical information and supplement professional advice with online resources. Both education and health-care sectors are seeing the disruption that previously has transformed other fields.

Given the uncertainties surrounding job projections, it is not surprising that experts disagree over the impact of emerging technologies. For example, in their highly acclaimed book, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies , economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee argue that technology is producing major changes in the workforce. According to them:

Technological progress is going to leave behind some people, perhaps even a lot of people, as it races ahead. As we will demonstrate, there has never been a better time to be a worker with special skills or the right education because these people can use technology to create and capture value. However, there has never been a worse time to be a worker with only "ordinary" skills and abilities to offer, because computers, robots, and other digital technologies are acquiring these skills and abilities at an extraordinary rate.(25)

Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers is equally pessimistic about the employment impact. He argues that "if current trends continue, it could well be that a generation from now a quarter of middle-aged men will be out of work at any given moment." From his standpoint, "providing enough work" will be the major economic challenge facing the world. (26)

However, some economists dispute these claims. They recognize that many jobs will be lost through technology improvements, but say that new ones will be created. There may be fewer people sorting items in a warehouse because machines can do that better than humans. But jobs analyzing big data, mining information, and managing data-sharing networks will be created. According to those individuals, the job gains and losses will even out over the long run. In future decades, work will be transformed but humans will still be needed to manage the digital world.

For example, MIT economist David Autor has analyzed data on jobs and technology but "doubts that technology could account for such an abrupt change in total employment [...] The sudden slowdown in job creation is a big puzzle, but there is not a lot of evidence it is linked to computers."(27) In the same vein, Harvard economist Richard Freeman is "skeptical that technology would change a wide range of business sectors fast enough to explain recent job numbers."(28)

Northwestern economist Robert Gordon takes an even stronger stance. He argues that:

Recent progress in computing and automation is less transformative than electrification, cars, and wireless communication, and perhaps even indoor plumbing. Previous advances that enabled people to communicate and travel rapidly over long distances may end up being more significant to society's advancement than anything to come in the twenty-first century.(29)

Based on this reasoning, he does not anticipate dramatic workforce effects from emerging technologies, even though many other experts already see the substitution of technology for labor.

A Pew Research Center study asked 1,896 experts about the impact of emerging technologies. Its researchers found that:

Half of these experts (48%) envision a future in which robots and digital agents have displaced significant numbers of both blue- and white-collar workers-with many expressing concern that this will lead to vast increases in income inequality, masses of people who are effectively unemployable, and breakdowns in the social order.(30)

Implications for Public Policy

In the classic Edward Bellamy book, Looking Backwards, protagonist Julian West wakes up from a 113-year slumber and finds that the United States in 2000 is completely different from 1887. People stop working at age forty-five and devote their lives to mentoring other people and contributing to the overall sense of community.(31) There are shorter work weeks for ordinary people and everyone receives full benefits, food, and housing.

Similar to our time period, new technologies at that time enabled people to be very productive in a short period of time. Society did not need a large number of workers so people could devote much of their lives to education, volunteerism, and community development. In conjunction with these employment trends, public policy shifted to encourage new lifestyles and ways of living.

In flash-forwarding to the current era, we may be on the verge of a similar technology transition. Robotics and machine learning have improved productivity and enhanced the overall economy of developed nations. Countries that have invested in innovation have seen tremendous growth in overall economic performance. In the future, it may be possible that society will not need as many workers as seen today.

Yet unlike Bellamy's utopia, there has been little public discussion regarding the economic or policy impact of emerging technologies. Observers worry that knowledge societies are destroying industrial and manufacturing jobs, and exacerbating social and economic divisions. In its most pointed form, skeptics fear that technology will eliminate jobs, reduce incomes, and create a permanent underclass of unemployable people. As argued by Nicolas Colin and Bruno Palier: "Employment is becoming less routine, less steady, and generally less well remunerated. Social policy will therefore have to cover the needs of not just outside the labor market but even many inside it."(32)

If technology innovation allows businesses to provide goods and services with far fewer employees, what will that mean for workers? A significant increase in the number of people without full-time jobs would exacerbate divisions within society and complicate the distribution of benefits such as pensions, health care, and insurance. Most benefits are tied to employment so if the economy requires fewer workers due to technological advancement, we need to consider how this will affect social benefit delivery.

In this section, I review short- and long-term steps we should consider to deal with emerging technologies. This includes thinking about how to deliver benefits outside of jobs, considering a basic income guarantee, revamping the earned income tax credit, providing activity accounts for lifetime learning and job retraining, encouraging corporate profit-sharing, providing benefit credits for volunteerism, making curricular reforms to assure that students have the skills they need for a twenty-first-century economy, encouraging adult education and continuing learning, expanding arts and culture for leisure time, and avoiding a permanent underclass suffering the ill effects of income inequality.

Benefits Outside of Jobs

If we end up in a situation with many people unemployed or underemployed for significant periods of time, we need a way to provide health care, disability, and pension benefits outside of employment. Called "flexicurity" or flexible security, this idea "separate(s) the provision of benefits from jobs."(33) It offers health care, education, and housing assistance on a universal basis.

Currently, people must work sixty percent of the time (around twenty-four hours a week) in order to qualify for full-time benefits. When they are fully employed, they are eligible for company-sponsored health-care plans and pensions. During the period since World War II, jobs have been a primary distribution system for social benefits. Except for the poor and elderly, this keeps benefits outside of the public sector and places the onus on private companies.

That approach worked well in an era when most of the people who wanted jobs were able to get them. People with limited skills were able to get well-paying jobs with benefits in factories, warehouses, and production facilities. They could educate their children, achieve a reasonable standard of living, and guard against disabling illnesses.

The complication came when the economy shifted, wages stagnated, and technology made it possible for companies to get by with fewer workers. The advent of robotics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and machine-to-machine communications eliminated a number of jobs and put a number of people outside the typical workforce.

For health care, people need access to quality care through plans outside of employment. It is possible through commercial insurers to purchase catastrophic insurance for extraordinary health claims. Or if people are poor or elderly, there are government programs that guarantee access to medical care. The recent expansion of health insurance through the Affordable Care Act has extended insurance to millions of people who previously lacked coverage.

In regard to retirement planning, many employers have moved to 401-style pension plans. Employees contribute to their own funds and sometimes get a match from the employer. But this does not help those outside the workforce who need retirement assistance. Even Social Security is tied to employment. People who have not worked are not eligible for retirement benefits so we need to figure out ways to take care of those people in the newly emerging economy.

Provide Activity Accounts for Lifetime Learning and Job Retraining

We should consider the establishment of activity accounts for lifetime learning and job retraining. In an era of fast technology innovation and job displacement, there needs to be a means for people to gain new skills throughout their adulthood. When people are employed, their companies could contribute a set amount to an individual's fund. This account could be augmented by contributions from the person him or herself as well as the government. Similar to a retirement account, money in the fund could be invested tax-free in investment options including cash reserves, stocks, and bonds. The owner of the account could draw on it to finance lifetime learning and job retraining expenses. It would be portable, meaning that if the person moved or switched jobs, the account would migrate with that individual.

The goal of this account is to provide incentives for continuing education. Under virtually any scenario, people are going to have to continue their education beyond the first twenty years of their lives. Emerging jobs are going to require different skills than what people gain in school. There will be new jobs created that may not exist today. As pointed out by Brookings Institution scholar Kemal Dervis, it will be crucial as technology innovation continues in the future to provide people with a means to upgrade their skills and knowledge levels.(34) He notes that France has established "individual activity accounts" that provide social benefits.

With the expected increase in leisure time, adults need time and financial support for continued learning. We should not envision education merely as a time for young people to learn new skills or pursue areas of interest. Instead, we need to think about education as a continuing activity that broadens people's horizons over the course of their entire lives. Education is an enrichment activity and we need to view it as a general benefit for the individual as well as the society as a whole.

Incentives for Volunteerism

The trends cited in this analysis suggest that we need to consider income supplements or benefit eligibility through vehicles other than full-time jobs. The workforce ramifications of emerging technologies mean that many people in the future may not be able to provide for their families through regular employment.

One possibility comes through volunteer activities. Even if people have limited employment options, many participate in a wide range of public-minded organizations. They help other people, train the next generation, or provide assistance for the less fortunate in society.

A variety of survey evidence demonstrates that young people are particularly interested in volunteerism. In general, they have different attitudes toward work and leisure time, and many say they want time to pursue outside activities. For example, a survey of American students found that they want "a job that focuses on helping others and improving society." In addition, they value quality of life considerations, not just financial well-being.(35)

A number of them value volunteer activities outside of their work experience. They have varied interests and want extra-curricular activities that fulfill them. This may involve tutoring in after-school programs, helping English as a Second Language pupils, stopping domestic violence, protecting the environment, or encouraging entrepreneurship. According to a Deloitte study, "63 percent of Millennials donate to charities and 43 percent actively volunteer or are a member of a community organization."(36)

In a digital world where there may be less work and more leisure time, it makes sense to think about incentives and work credits for volunteerism. This could include credits toward social benefits or public rewards that acknowledge community contributions. In the United Kingdom, for example, volunteers get reimbursed for expenses or earn credits for job training programs through participation in worthy causes. In addition, volunteering counts as "looking for work" so people can use those activities to qualify for national insurance credits.(37)

Going forward, the United States should consider those types of incentives. In the future, people are likely to have more time outside of employment so it makes sense to encourage them toward community engagement and give them incentives to volunteer for nonprofit organizations or charitable causes. This will benefit the overall community and give people purposeful activities in which to engage.

Expanding Arts and Culture for Leisure Time

The so-called "end of work" may create a new kind of economy. According to Harvard economist Lawrence Katz: "It is possible that information technology and robots [will] eliminate traditional jobs and make possible a new artisanal economy [...] an economy geared around self-expression, where people would do artistic things with their time."(38) From his standpoint, this transition would move the world from one of consumption to creativity.

People will use their leisure time to pursue interests in arts and culture, or special areas that they follow. This could include reading, poetry, music, or woodworking. Depending on their background, they could have more time for family and friends. A study of family time found that macroeconomic conditions affect how much time people spend together. When employment problems rise, "fathers spend more time engaging in enriching childcare activities" and "mothers are less likely to work standard hours."(39) As long as there are opportunities for people to pursue broader interests, reduction in work does not have to eliminate chances for cultural pursuits.

Conclusion

To summarize, advanced societies are at a major turning point in terms of how we think about work, leisure, and social benefit delivery. If these economies need fewer workers to complete needed tasks and benefits are delivered mainly through full-time jobs, there is a danger that many people will have difficulties getting health care, pensions, and the income maintenance they need to sustain their lives. This is of particular concern at a time of large income inequality and highly skewed economic distributions.(40)

The contrast between the age of scarcity in which we have lived and the upcoming age of abundance through new technologies means that we need to pay attention to the social contract. We need to rewrite it in keeping with the dramatic shifts in employment and leisure time that are taking place. People have to understand we are witnessing a fundamental interruption of the current cycle where people are paid for their work and spend their money on goods and services. When a considerable portion of human labor is no longer necessary to run the economy, we have to rethink income generation, employment, and public policy. Our emerging economic system means we will not need all the workers that we have. New technologies will make these individuals obsolete and unemployable.

In this situation, it is important to address the policy and leisure time issues raised by persistent unemployment or underemployment. There is a danger of disruptions and unrest from large groups of people who are not working. That creates poverty and social dissatisfaction and runs the risk of instability for the society as a whole. Stability cannot be enforced through a police presence or having wealthy individuals live in gated communities.

There needs to be ways for people to live fulfilling lives even if society needs relatively few workers. We need to think about ways to address these issues before we have a permanent underclass of unemployed individuals. This includes a series of next steps for society. There needs to be continuous learning avenues, opportunities for arts and culture, and mechanisms to supplement incomes and benefits other than through full-time jobs. Policies that encourage volunteerism and reward those who contribute to worthy causes make sense from the standpoint of society as a whole. Adoption of these steps will help people adapt to the new economic realities.
Acknowledgments
I wish to thank Hillary Schaub for outstanding research assistance on this project.

1. James Manyika, Michael Chui, Jacques Bughin, Richard Dobbs, Peter Bisson, and Alex Marrs, Disruptive Technologies: Advances That Will Transform Life, Business, and the Global Economy (McKinsey Global Institute, May, 2013).

2. Daniela Rus, "How technological breakthroughs will transform everyday life," Foreign Affairs, July/August, 2015.

3. A more extended discussion of these issues can be found in Darrell M. West, What Happens If Robots Take the Jobs? (Brookings Institution Policy Report, October, 2015).

4. James Hagerty, "Meet the new generation of robots for manufacturing," Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2015.

5. Alison Sander and Meldon Wolfgang, "The rise of robotics," The Boston Consulting Group, August 27, 2014. https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/business_unit_strategy_innovation_rise_of_robotics.

6. RBC Global Asset Management, Global Megatrends: Automation in Emerging Markets (2014).

7. Cynthia Breazeal, "The personal side of robots," South by Southwest, March 13, 2015.

8. Eitan Wilf. "Sociable robots, jazz music, and divination: contingency as a cultural resource for negotiating problems of intentionality," American Ethnologist: Journal of the American Ethnological Society, November 6, 2013: 605. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/amet.12041/abstract.

9. Mike Murphy, "Amazon tests out robots that might one day replace warehouse workers," Quartz, June 1, 2015.

10. Lydia DePillis, "Minimum-wage offensive could speed arrival of robot-powered restaurants," Washington Post, August 16, 2015.

11. Thi-Hai-Ha Dang and Adriana Tapus, "Stress game: the role of motivational robotic assistance in reducing user's task stress," International Journal of Social Robotics, April, 2015.

12. Michael Lewis, Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt (New York: Norton, 2015).

13. Andrei A. Kirilenko and Andrew W. Lo, "Moore's Law versus Murphy's Law: algorithmic trading and its discontents," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2013. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/23391690.pdf?acceptTC=true.

14. Shukla Shubhendu and Jaiswal Vijay, "Applicability of artificial intelligence in different fields of life," International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Research, September, 2013.

15. Ibid.

16. Ibid.

17. Derek Thompson, "A world without work," The Atlantic, July/August, 2015.

18. Dawn Nakagawa, "The second machine age is approaching," Huffington Post, February 24, 2015.

19. MIT Technology Review, "Who will own the robots," September, 2015.

20. Martin Ford, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology, and the Economy of the Future (CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2009). Also see his more recent book, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future (New York: Basic Books, 2015).

21. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Employment projections: 2012-2022 summary," December 19, 2013. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm

22. Ibid.

23. Quoted in Harold Meyerson, "Technology and trade policy is pointing America toward a job apocalypse," Washington Post, March 26, 2014. The original paper is by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, "The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation," Oxford University Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013.

24. Frey and Osborne, "The future of employment," op. cit.: 57-72.

25. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W. W. Norton, 2014), 11.

26. Lawrence Summers, "The economic challenge of the future: jobs," Wall Street Journal, July 7, 2014.

27. Quoted in David Rotman, "How technology is destroying jobs," MIT Technology Review, June 12, 2013. http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/

28. Ibid.

29. Quoted in Melissa Kearney, Brad Hershbein, and David Boddy, "The future of work in the age of the machine," Brookings Institution Hamilton Project, February, 2015.

30. Aaron Smith and Janna Anderson, "AI, robotics, and the future of jobs," Pew Research Center, August 6, 2014.

31. Edward Bellamy, Looking Backward 2000-1887 (Boston: Ticknor & Co., 1888).

32. Nicolas Colin and Bruno Palier, "Social policy for a digital age," Foreign Affairs, July/August, 2015.

33. Ibid.

34. Kemal Dervis, "A new birth for social democracy," Brookings Institution Project Syndicate, June 10, 2015.

35. The Griffith Insurance Education Foundation, "Millennial generation attitudes about work and the insurance industry," February 6, 2012.

36. Lindsey Pollack, "Attitudes and attributes of millennials in the workplace," September 12, 2014.

37. Job Centre Plus, "Volunteering while getting benefits," UK Department for Work and Pensions, October, 2010. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/264508/dwp1023.pdf

38. Quoted in Thompson, "A world without work," op. cit.

39. Melinda Sandler Morill and Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia, "What effects do macroeconomic conditions have on families' time together?" Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/58561

40. Darrell M. West, Billionaires: Reflections on the Upper Crust (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2014).

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Technological Progress and Potential Future Risks | OpenMind

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Darrell M. West contributes to the book "The Next Step: Exponential Life" with the article "Technological Progress and Potential Future Risks"

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In Singapore, we have many foreigners coming in for Jobs and that creates competition between us

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You can download the Foreign Workforce Numbers file.

1. Data may not add up to the total due to rounding.

2. "Other work passes" includes Letter of Consent (LOC), pre-approved LOC, Training Work Permit (TWP) and Training Employment Pass (TEP).

3. Data are revised at the industry level to reflect updates in industry classification of firms based on the Singapore Standard Industrial Classification (SSIC) 2020.

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what will be the average salary in 5 years time?

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Does the claim refer to all Singapore youths, or are there exceptions?

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PA recognises the importance of getting a good start in life, and we have the tools and channels to help you express yourself in your community. We know you have something to say, ideas to contribute and activities you want to participate in.

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many are pressured to find a good job by people around them

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are qualifications more important than skills to secure a job in Singapore?

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Are Skills and Experience More Valuable Than a Degree?

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Today, employers are looking for a variety of talents, skills and personality traits in future candidates. This means that people who haven't attended university, have just as much of a chance of getting employed due to the potential skills and experience that they have gained in the time that others have spent studying for a degree.

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What are the other concerns Singapore youths may have?

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what is the age group for youths?

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The age range of a youth group varies. Church youth groups generally depend on the size and culture of a church. Most youth groups include youth who are in grades 6 to 12, aged 12 to 18.

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How developed technology will be over the 5 years

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Since a "good" is a subjective term, how do we determine it?

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Is it specifically in 5 years time?
Does it vary between each youths?

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Instead of just a decent job, we are looking at jobs that requires good qualifications

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it is important to have a job in singapore in order to feed a family