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https://www.vox.com/2018/4/6/17206230/china-trade-belt-road-economy

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China has embarked on the most ambitious infrastructure project in modern world history. It's called the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and it spans three continents and covers almost 60 percent of the world's population. It's how China plans to become the world's next superpower.

The BRI essentially has two parts. The first, the economic belt, is made up of six corridorsthat direct trade to and from China. These corridors include roads, railways, bridges, power plants - anything that makes it easier for Europe, Asia, and Africa to trade goods with China. The second part, the maritime silk road, is a chain of seaports from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean that direct maritime trade to and from China.

China is loaning trillions of dollars to countries willing to host these projects. They're promoted as a win-win for everyone. Many of the countries involved need new infrastructure and access to new markets, while China needs new projects for its growing construction industry. But many of the countries involved in the BRI are authoritarian, corrupt, and in conflict - risky places for China to invest money in.

Watch the video above to see why China is willing to take that risk with its Belt and Road Initiative. You can find this video and all of Vox's videos on YouTube. Subscribe for the latest.

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China's trillion-dollar plan to dominate global trade

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China has embarked on the most ambitious infrastructure project in modern world history. It's called the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and it spans three continents and covers almost 60 percent of the world's population. It's how China plans to become the world's next superpower. The BRI essentially has two parts.

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https://www.nytimes.com/video/players/offsite/index.html?videoId=100000006126247

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https://www.vox.com/videos/22652273/afghanistan-us-military-timeline-effects

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On August 15, 2021, the Taliban took over Afghanistan's capital, Kabul. The Afghan president fled the country. Almost all of Afghanistan is now under Taliban control. It marks the end of an era: America's longest war is now over, and America lost. It happened fast, stunning the world and leaving many in the country racing to find an exit. But even among those surprised by the way the end played out, many knew the war was destined to end badly. According to some experts, the seeds of disaster were planted back at the war's very beginning.

Soon after the American war in Afghanistan began in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, the US government struggled to answer exactly why the military was there. In the very beginning, the goal was relatively clear: to capture the perpetrator of the attacks, Osama bin Laden. But almost immediately, the goals became murkier and more complicated.

In this video, investigative reporter Azmat Khan and former US ambassador to Afghanistan Michael McKinley explain what the US military was actually doing in Afghanistan, what it got wrong, and why America's long intervention there is considered a failure.

You can find this video and all of Vox's videos on YouTube.

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How the US created a disaster in Afghanistan

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On August 15, 2021, the Taliban took over Afghanistan's capital, Kabul. The Afghan president fled the country. Almost all of Afghanistan is now under Taliban control. It marks the end of an era: America's longest war is now over, and America lost.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luTPMHC7zHY

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Why China is building islands in the South China Sea

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w05435LQJE

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U.S. and China have been in a ‘cold war for 10 or 15 years,’ GOP congressman says

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVu8QbxafJE

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https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/06/australias-military-aid-to-ukraine-has-been-ramping-up-heres-how-it-compares-with-other-nations

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When Ukraine's defence ministry published video this week of an amphibious armoured personnel carrier "provided by Russia", it was being towed by an Australian-supplied Bushmaster.

"This technology is in safe hands," the ministry added.

It is one of 60 Bushmaster-protected mobility vehicles that Australia has either supplied or promised to help Ukraine in its defence against Russia's invasion.

The Australian government is reluctant to divulge exact delivery dates, citing operational security reasons, but says it is considering expanding the assistance to Ukraine amid growing expectations that it will be a protracted war.

Ukraine has made no secret of its wish for partners including Australia to provide further aid, including ammunition, and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, is due to give his own assessment when he addresses the Lowy Institute by video link on Thursday night.

This is what Australia has committed so far and how it compares with other nations.

Quick Guide
Australia's $388m in military assistance to Ukraine

Australia's $388m in military assistance to Ukraine

60 x Bushmaster protected mobility vehicles

6 x M777 155mm lightweight towed howitzers plus ammunition

28 x M113AS4 armoured vehicles

Anti-armour weapons and other weapons

Soldier personal combat equipment

Equipment (including unmanned aerial systems) sourced from Australian industry

De-mining equipment to help remove explosive ordnance littering the battlefield

Thank you for your feedback.

Australia has gradually ramped up its assistance since February, first under the Morrison government and now under the Albanese government, with bipartisan support for the view that helping Ukraine respond to the "illegal, immoral" invasion is important for broader preservation of international stability - including in the Indo-Pacific, where China has not ruled out taking Taiwan by force.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy has compiled data on military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

The military section of the analysis shows that between 24 January and 3 August 2022 the US was by far the biggest provider of weapons, equipment and financial aid with a military purpose. The next-biggest provider, in euro terms, was fellow Nato member the UK, followed by Poland, Germany and Canada. Australia was ranked ninth out of 30 donor countries, sitting between the Baltic states Latvia and Estonia.

A chart of the military aid given to Ukraine compiled by the Kiel Institute's Ukraine support tracker

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and some of his ministers have been fond of saying that Australia is "the largest non-Nato contributor" to the defence of Ukraine, but that language has shifted in recent weeks. Now the favoured term is "one of the largest".

Officials told Guardian Australia the statement about Australia being "the largest non-Nato contributor" to Ukraine was used in the early phase of the invasion and based on public reporting by the Kiel Institute of military support to Ukraine. But they said it was becoming "increasingly difficult to verify, measure, monitor and compare nations' contributions".

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The picture is a little different when all forms of assistance (not just military aid) are also taken into account and the size of the economies are also considered.

The Kiel Institute's tracker shows that Estonia and Latvia are the countries that have committed the largest assistance as a share of their own gross domestic product (0.9%), whereas the US is 10th in this analysis (0.2%) and Australia 32nd (0.02%). This data took into account 40 donor countries.

Beyond the war, the Ukrainian government is also seeking help from countries including Australia to start the rebuilding process.

The Ukrainian ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, submitted a proposal to the Australian government last month to "adopt" a region of Ukraine as the target of its reconstruction assistance, Crikey reported on Wednesday.

When asked about the prospects of Australia joining the "adopt a region" scheme, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said discussions were continuing.

"The Australian government continues to engage with our Ukrainian counterparts and acknowledges the significant challenges associated with rebuilding Ukraine," the department's spokesperson said on Wednesday.

"Australia will continue working with partners to support Ukraine and consider all formal requests for further assistance."

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Australia's military aid to Ukraine has been ramping up - here's how it compares with other nations

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When Ukraine's defence ministry published video this week of an amphibious armoured personnel carrier "provided by Russia", it was being towed by an Australian-supplied Bushmaster. "This technology is in safe hands," the ministry added. It is one of 60 Bushmaster-protected mobility vehicles that Australia has either supplied or promised to help Ukraine in its defence against Russia's invasion.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/china-accuses-australia-of-trying-to-sabotage-its-relationships-in-pacific-region

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China accuses Australia of trying to sabotage its relationships in Pacific region

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Beijing says US, Australia and New Zealand have ‘a cold war mentality’ and are driving up geopolitical tensions

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https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/why-the-us-and-australia-are-worried-about-chinas-maritime-empire-in-the-south-china-sea/4dca4lybr?/?cid=news:search:gg:en:nacadigital:dsa:prog&gclid=CjwKCAjwjYKjBhB5EiwAiFdSfnsKBi8WLWia82p_2uHTG7r4xp_m5lbd7yRfFAScBcoTuiyhbDCH4RoCTRgQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

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Tensions in the South China Sea

The global response to the pandemic will be high on the agenda, but the US Ambassador to Australia, Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr, has pointed to another pressing issue - China's activity in the South China Sea.

Australia will also discuss the effort to counter the spread of disinformation from authoritarian states in the wake of COVID.

Why is the South China Sea on the agenda?

In a note lodged to the United Nations last week,

"There is no legal basis for China to draw straight baselines connecting the outermost points of maritime features or 'island groups' in the South China Sea, including around the 'Four Sha' or 'continental' or 'outlying' archipelagos."

Navy exercise in South China Sea. Source: Department of Defence

While the move is likely to draw ire from Beijing, it's been welcomed by Washington DC.

The US has also rejected China's claims saying the South China Sea is "not China's maritime empire.''

"Our note lodged with the UN Secretary General refutes China's unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea. It rejects China's claim to historic rights and internal waters, its assertion of certain maritime zones, and its contention that there is wide international recognition of its South China Sea sovereignty claims."

"This is a step up by Australia to get involved in the diplomatic fray around the South China Sea, but also to remain consistent with international legal precedents and understanding of how the law of the seas should be managed."

An airstrip, structures and buildings on China's man-made Subi Reef in the Spratly chain of islands in the South China. Source: AP

The South China Sea has been disputed for decades with the Philippines, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei all having overlapping territorial claims in the region.

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Why the US and Australia are worried about China's 'maritime empire' in the South China Sea

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Tensions in the South China Sea The global response to the pandemic will be high on the agenda, but the US Ambassador to Australia, Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr, has pointed to another pressing issue - China's activity in the South China Sea.

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-30/is-the-terrorism-threat-over-in-australia/101814878

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Eight years after raising the national terrorism threat level, Australia recently lowered it again - from mid-range (probable) to low-range (possible).

Does this mean the threat from terrorism is over?

Few are better placed to answer this than Mike Burgess, Director-General of Security and head of ASIO, Australia's domestic intelligence agency.

Burgess is one of the handful of people who can talk openly about his agency's work. And when he speaks, his words are carefully calibrated and warrant close attention.

In a rare public address in November, he told the Australian public that, for the time being at least, they could stop worrying about the threat of a terrorist attack in Australia. He said:

When ISIL formed its caliphate in the Middle East, significant numbers of Australians were seduced by slick propaganda and false narratives, and that led ASIO to raise the terrorism threat level to PROBABLE. Our decision was tragically justified.

Since 2014, there have been 11 terrorist attacks on Australian soil, while 21 significant plots have been detected and disrupted.

Decades of hard work by police, communities and government agencies have ultimately reduced the capacity of terrorist groups (al-Qaeda and the Islamic State movement in particular) to significantly threaten stable, democratic states.

But in weak or failing states (including Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia) al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates continue to represent an existential threat.

According to the Global Terrorism Index, Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for almost half of all terrorist deaths, and the Sahel (a region of North Africa that includes countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso) is home to some of the most potent terrorist networks on the planet.

How have stable democracies minimised the terror threat?

Established democracies have developed police-led counterterrorism intelligence capacity to the point where ambitious, large-scale, terrorist plots are largely detected and disrupted, and terrorist social networks are effectively pinned down.

And this is not just the case with Western democracies. In our region, for example, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have made impressive progress in constraining a resilient and pernicious terrorist threat.

For Indonesia - and Australia - the bomb attacks in Bali 20 years ago were transformative. In the wake of the bombings, successful forensic investigations by the Indonesian National Police, in partnership with the Australian Federal Police (AFP), profoundly reshaped the police forces of both nations.

The AFP was established in 1979 and tasked with leading counterterrorism in response to the Sydney Hilton bombing of 1978. This was an unprecedented attack that killed three and injured 11. By the turn of the century, however, the modest resources of the AFP were being reorientated towards more pressing threats, such as counternarcotics and port security.

The September 11 al-Qaeda terrorist attacks on America in 2001, however, forced an abrupt pivot, returning the AFP to its original focus on counterterrorism. A year later, in October 2002, AFP agents Mick Keelty and Graham Ashton were forced to draw on their relationships of trust with Indonesia National Police officers to figure out who was responsible for the Bali bombings, and to limit their capacity to launch further attacks.

Their successful cooperation led to the arrest of members of a breakaway bombing cell of an Indonesian al-Qaeda affiliate, Jemaah Islamiyah. Formed in 1993 along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border by so-called mujahideen, or holy fighters, this group supported the resistance to Soviet occupation in Afghanistan.

The Bali attacks resulted in the establishment of a specialist counterterrorism unit of the Indonesian police called Densus 88. In the 18 years since its establishment, Densus 88 has arrested and contributed to the successful prosecution of more than 2,000 terrorists (this is my estimate based on the hundreds of arrests reported year on year).

The challenge now for Indonesian police is breaking the cycle of radicalisation. The recent release of Bali bomb-maker Umar Patek, on closely supervised parole, is confronting. But it's also an encouraging indication of the success of Indonesian police in rehabilitating former terrorists.

The rise of the Islamic State caliphate in Syria and Iraq in mid-2014 marked a disturbing setback in counterterrorism in Australia and south-east Asia. It was, in large part, a product of an unwise, and unwarranted, military intervention in Iraq a decade earlier. This toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein and opened the door to insurgent forces, including al-Qaeda in Iraq, which later became Islamic State in Iraq, and then Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

The 2003 invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein proved deeply destabilising, with cascading perverse outcomes. The international military operation, in which Australia played a significant role, contributed both to the rise of ISIS and to its ultimate defeat.

A similar, though strikingly incomplete, cycle of events played out in Afghanistan. Initially, the US-led military operation that began in October 2001 constrained al-Qaeda, almost to the point of defeat. But ultimately, the military intervention led to the reconquest of Afghanistan by the Taliban, and the opening of the door to al-Qaeda and its rival Islamic State.

Not only does al-Qaeda now enjoy safe haven in Afghanistan, Islamic State continues to launch devastating attacks across Afghanistan.

For the time being, however, police counterterrorism intelligence has constrained the capacity of both al-Qaeda and ISIS to project a threat into Australia.

What about far-right terror?

Far-right and related conspiracy extremism has gone from representing just 10-15 per cent of the counterterrorism caseload of ASIO and the AFP to almost 50 per cent. This is a pattern matched across North America and Europe.

For the moment, this new threat is most likely to manifest in lone-actor attacks that are mostly smaller-scale and less lethal (but not always, as we saw in Christchurch in 2019).

For Western democracies, and increasingly Asian democracies as well, toxic ultranationalism in the form of ethnic and religious supremacist movements is the rising threat. Currently, it's less well organised and coordinated than jihadi terrorism. But that's likely to change.

And, as the tragic attacks in Wieambilla have shown, it has all become much more complex and unpredictable. Paranoia fuelled by conspiracy theories, mixed with religious fundamentalism and hatred of governments and police, is generating new forms of violent extremism.

As Mike Burgess reminded us:

Terrorism is an enduring threat. And terrorism is an evolving threat ... We keep the terrorism threat level under constant review. There can be no 'set and forget' in security intelligence.

Greg Barton is a Chair in Global Islamic Politics at the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University. This piece first appeared on The Conversation.

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The terrorism risk level in Australia has been downgraded. Does that mean the threat is over?

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Eight years after raising the national terrorism threat level, Australia recently lowered it again - from mid-range (probable) to low-range (possible). Does this mean the threat from terrorism is over? Few are better placed to answer this than Mike Burgess, Director-General of Security and head of ASIO, Australia's domestic intelligence agency.

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https://theconversation.com/australia-is-under-sustained-cyber-attack-warns-the-government-whats-going-on-and-what-should-businesses-do-141119

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison had some alarming news for Australians this morning: we are under cyber attack. He informed the nation the attacks "hadn't just started", and that Australian businesses and governments are being widely targeted.

It is unclear why the government chose today to make the announcement, or indeed what exactly is going on.

The attack is described as "state-sponsored", which means a foreign government is believed to be behind it. When asked who that might be, Morrison said there is a high threshold for drawing that kind of conclusion, but added:

...there are not a large number of state-based actors that can engage in this type of activity.

This has been interpreted as a coded reference to China, which the Australian government reportedly suspects of being behind the attacks.

Read more: Why international law is failing to keep pace with technology in preventing cyber attacks

What do we know about the attack so far?

An advisory note posted on the government's Australian Cyber Security Centre website describes the attack as a "cyber campaign targeting Australian networks".

The advisory says the attackers are primarily using "remote code execution vulnerability" to target Australian networks and systems. Remote code execution is a common type of cyber attack in which an attacker attempts to insert their own software codes into a vulnerable system such as a server or database.

The attackers would not only try to steal information but also attempt to run malicious codes that could damage or disable the systems under attack.

Detecting this is hard, and would require advanced defensive measures such as penetration testing, in which trained security professionals known as "ethical hackers" try to hack into a system in an attempt to find potential vulnerabilities.

What systems have been affected?

The advisory linked the attack to three specific vulnerabilities in particular systems, detailed in the table below. Any business that uses any of these systems is vulnerable to attack. It is too early to tell whether other systems are also vulnerable; other vulnerabilities may emerge as investigations continue.

Microsoft Internet Information Services (IIS)

This is a general-purpose webserver from Microsoft that runs on Windows systems. The most common use of an IIS is to host web-based applications and simple static websites.

For all three systems:

Ensure you are running the latest version of the software

Install the latest patches and updates

Change all passwords, log off from all devices

Set up multifactor authentication, more details can be found here

Scan and remove any malicious codes which you don't recognise

SharePoint

A SharePoint Server is used by organisations to manage Office 365 Enterprise accounts within their own organisation.

The affected Citrix products are mainly Citrix gateways and servers. These are used to support web, cloud and mobile application services.

How can businesses protect themselves?

Even though the specific threats are not fully known to the public, there is a range of measures businesses can take in the meantime. These include:
Use available government resources
The federal government has provided extensive cyber safety guidelines for Australian businesses, featuring advice on cyber security and data protection, and information on the various types of cyber threat.

More comprehensive cyber security guidelines can be found at the ACSC website, including detailed advice on secure management of databases, email systems and physical computer assets, among others.
Watch out for spam
Phishing is not just limited to email. These scams can be executed via text messages, social media such as Facebook, and VOIP messaging services such as WhatsApp.

As a general guide:

do not open messages or attachments from unknown senders

remember that genuine organisations such as banks, government departments and online retailers never ask for personal information via email, and you should always check with them directly (such as by calling them) if in doubt.

Read more: Everyone falls for fake emails: lessons from cybersecurity summer school
Beware DDoS attacks
A "distributed denial of service" (DDoS) attack is the most common type of cyber attack. It works by flooding your website with traffic, preventing genuine customers from reaching your website. Think of it like a traffic jam clogging up a highway and preventing cars from reaching their destinations.

Luckily, there are ways to reduce the impact of DDoS attacks, such as by using intrusion detection and prevention systems. If you are concerned about DoS attacks speak with your internet provider about developing a DDoS response plan.
Have a backup plan
A "continuity plan" ensures important assets such as personnel records, customer databases and network configurations are protected and can be restored quickly in the event of a cyberattack.

Suggested plans are available via the federal and Queensland governments.

Businesses should also follow sensible IT security procedures, which include the following:

Regardless of the details, the latest announcement is a reminder that we should not lower our guard against cyber attacks. The latest round of cyber attacks are likely the result of previous "reconnaissance attacks", which revealed existing vulnerabilities in Australian networks.

Taking the steps outlined above could help prevent hackers mounting similar attacks in the future.

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Australia is under sustained cyber attack, warns the government. What's going on, and what should businesses do?

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison had some alarming news for Australians this morning: we are under cyber attack. He informed the nation the attacks "hadn't just started", and that Australian businesses and governments are being widely targeted. It is unclear why the government chose today to make the announcement, or indeed what exactly is going on.

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https://theconversation.com/australia-would-be-among-the-biggest-economic-losers-from-a-new-cold-war-179102

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If tensions between the Western world and China and Russia led to a split into two separate financial and trading systems, Australia would be among the countries most hurt.

We ran the numbers on this earlier this year for the West Australian Governor's Strategic Foresight Dialogue. At the time the possibility of a new " bamboo curtain " with China, Russia and like-minded nations on one side, and the "West" led by the United States on the other, was academic.

It remains so. Nevertheless, it is worth reexamining what our model produced.

We modelled the short-term effects of an end to trade and investment flows across a curtain which leaves the Western economies on one side and China and the rest of the world on the other.

Read more: Russian sanctions are biting harder than imagined, and it'll get worse

Examining only the short-term effects of an end to trade and investment flows across such a curtain, we conservatively assumed:

no associated military expenditures or losses

exchange rate targeting within each group, with Western currencies pegged to US dollar and Eastern countries pegged to the Chinese Renminbi

money wages, capital and government spending fixed in all countries

employment, business rates of return and fiscal deficits allowed to adjust

in all regions, the unemployed get 60% of the low-skill wage

Australia among the hardest hit

Proportionately, the negative effect on Australia would be larger than on the world as a whole, due to Australia's relative affluence and dependence on trade.

The United States was the least affected in terms of GDP.

The relative resilience of the US is because it is less trade-dependent than other economies. It would receive an expanded share of the diminished Western investment pool.

Production would fall everywhere until production centres are relocated, resulting in mass unemployment and plunging returns on capital.

Our model suggests half a billion workers would lose their jobs worldwide, including one fifth of employed Australians.

The worth of financial assets would fall by one fifth on average, and by one quarter in Australia.

An end to trade across a bamboo curtain would hit Australia, since we export more resources to China than anywhere else and we import more goods from China than anywhere else.

Australia's (mainly commodity) export prices would fall 6.9%, while Australia's (mainly manufactured) import prices would climb, by as much as 13.2%.

The result would be a real decline in the value of Australia's currency, which would be biggest against the US dollar (20%).

Australia's export income would fall 55%, a loss almost as big as China's.

Western Australia would be by far the worst affected Australian state, because it depends on exports for 61% of its gross state product, compared to 24% for Australia as a whole.

The 55% collapse in Australia's export income predicted by the modelling would cause a collapse in Western Australia's nominal gross state product by 34%, while Australia's nominal GDP would fall by 17%.

Diversity, within the bloc

The scenario remains unlikely, but the best early defence against extremely large losses is greater economic diversity. Interestingly, this need not be diversity within the Australian economy, or within one state within it, but diversity within the entire Western bloc on Australia's side of the potential curtain.

It is achievable with far less restructuring than would be needed to make all of Australia self-sufficient.

Nonetheless, to support the expanded investments required, Australia would have to quickly enhance its strengths in sophisticated manufacturing.

Read more: Chief Scientist: science will drive a post-pandemic manufacturing boom

This needn't happen within the state with the most to lose, which is Western Australia. Expanded manufacturing in Australia's east could source the minerals, energy and agricultural inputs it needed from Australia's west.

Of course, any support of manufacturing in Australia will require programs that avoid the import protection that held back Australian growth through the 1970s.

One idea would be tax reforms combined with tax-financed direct assistance. Finding other ideas will be challenging for Australia's economists and policy makers, but we fear they could become very important.
The substance of this article was prepared for the WA Governor's Strategic Foresight Dialogue: Possibilities for Western Australian Economic and Industrial Resilience in the Event of Regional Conflict, 23 February 2022

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Australia would be among the biggest economic losers from a new cold war

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If tensions between the Western world and China and Russia led to a split into two separate financial and trading systems, Australia would be among the countries most hurt. We ran the numbers on this earlier this year for the West Australian Governor's Strategic Foresight Dialogue.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.

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Describe the threat to Australia’s national security.