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Global Warming: The issues and the consequences

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Global Warming: The issues and the consequences

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As we all know, the climate change is an issue that comes up on our daily basis. It's a scientifically approved phenomenon that it's been going on for decades. The environmental policies have been made to contain the issues and the negative effects on our environment, but that's not enough...
The winter tourism and ski resorts are suffering the consecuences of the global warming, what can they do to survive and adapt to these problems?

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The following ideas are not solutions for the lack of snow problem, but just ways to adapt to the situation.
Seasonal adjustement seems to be a good way to compensate for the losses of the winter season

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Artificial snow and snow cannons: pros and cons 

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Artificial snow and snow cannons: pros and cons 

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Pros:

Employments

Maintaining seasonal tourism flow

Ensure snow presence in the winter season

Cons:

Ambiental pollution

Ambiental impacts due to deforestation to create ski slopes

Huge amount of water needed by the snow cannons

Ski-pass costs increment

Snow surface becomes dangerous for skiing

Higher electricity usage by the snow cannons

Tourists travel longer distances to reach higher skii destinations, where snow it's guaranteed, producing more CO2 emissions

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Dario Manente:                                                researcher, presentation designer  

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Dario Manente:                                                researcher, presentation designer  

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Anna Salvà: researcher, moderator , presentation designer

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Anna Salvà: researcher, moderator , presentation designer

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Giovanni Bissoli: researcher, coordinator 

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Giovanni Bissoli: researcher, coordinator 

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ARTIFICIAL SKI SLOPES: a problem or a solution? Alternative ways to ski in the Oriental Alps area (Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige)

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ARTIFICIAL SKI SLOPES: a problem or a solution? Alternative ways to ski in the Oriental Alps area (Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige)

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Due to the lack of snow the ski resorts are forced to use artifical snow produced by snow cannons, this method imply high costs in terms of economical and environmental resources.

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In February 2021 the cost for artificial snow making was from 2 to 3.8 euros/m ³
In November 2022 the total amount was around 6.5 euros/ m ³  (doubled regarding to February 2021)

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To face these problems ski resorts are figuring out new ideas to enjoy mountain experiences in alternative ways.
In fact in the last years we have seen an increment of outdoor activities instead of skiing

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The graph shows the annual percentage variation of the snow quantitiy based on the 1920-2010 annual average quantity

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Seasonal accumulation of fresh snow - Oriental Alps 1920 - 2010

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Seasonal accumulation of fresh snow - Oriental Alps 1920 - 2010

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Water consumption for artificial snow making (1996-2014) - Trentino

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Water consumption for artificial snow making (1996-2014) - Trentino

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Beyond skiers and winter tourism lovers, the Alps must be charming not only in winter, but also in all the other seasons.
So, there should be considered new types of tourism activities:
trekking, mountain-biking, canyoning, bird-watching, hiking, nordic walking, rafting, speleology etc.
Other types of tourism that should be stimulated are enogastronomic and congressual tourism.

Those who will benefits from this seasonal adjustement are:
environment (with the proper consciousness of the tourist), stakeholders (hotels, restaurants, b&b, lodges, local shops)

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Since the pandemic, trekking Google's researches are increasing year by year, and this proves that people craves for outdoor activities

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"Investments could be made to reduce the dependence of mountain economy on snow conditions: for example, by enhancing engagement in year-round  tourism,  stimulating  and  promoting  summer  tourism,  but  also  activities  and  winter  weather independent entertainments such as winter trail running races, congress, educational and health events. At the same time summer tourism in the Alps is often considered as a potential “winner” of global climate change as the Mediterranean will become too hot and lose its climatic attractiveness".

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Not only in Italy but also other countries are taking actions to face global warming, for example in Spain's Alps

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Acknowledgments
We would like to thank Professor Emmanuel Reynard for the invitation in collaborating with this special issue and his support during all the process. Thanks also to M. Olivier Vallade for helpful editorial assistance and to two anonymous reviewers for their criticisms and suggestions.

1Snow-based tourism is one of the most exposed activities to climate change (Gilaberte-Búrdalo et al., 2017; Campos et al. 2018; Steiger et al., 2019). With rising temperatures, the future viability of winter tourist resorts and especially those at lower altitudes will need the development of alternatives able to compensate for likely decline in ski and other activities based on snow (Scott and McBoyle, 2007). In this paper we focus on the Spanish Catalan Pyrenees as one area particularly exposed to the effects of climate change on the snow cover and therefore on the ski tourist industry. Several studies (Pons et al., 2015; Fraguell et al., 2017) point that most Spanish Catalan ski resorts will be affected by reductions in the snowpack which could lead to the closure of some of them and to a deep reconfiguration of the current business model for most of them. During the last decades, all resorts have opted for the installation of facilities to produce artificial snow, despite high economic, energy and environmental costs. Thus far artificial snow production has generally helped to ensure the viability of ski resorts by limiting the impacts of dry winters. However, its effectiveness may be substantially curtailed under higher average temperatures as those foreseen for the Pyrenees during the next decades. Ski resorts therefore will need to adapt to a changing climate and this adaptation necessarily involves transforming resorts towards promoting activities not dependent on snow. Ski will always remain an option, climate conditions permitting, but, likely, it may not suffice to ensure the economic viability of these resorts which are seen as fundamental for the socioeconomic survival of mountain areas. The objective of the paper is to assess how Spanish Catalan ski resorts are responding to the challenges both of insufficient natural snow covers and to longer term trends that could threaten the overall viability of resorts. Adaptation actions to confront these challenges, snow making and the transition from ski resorts to mountain resorts, pose both risks and opportunities that will be assessed.

2The scientific literature on impacts and adaptation to climate change in the tourist sector and particularly in winter tourism has increased considerably in recent years and continues to expand (Barrios and Ibañez, 2013; Kajan and Saarinen, 2013; Arendt et al., 2014; Dogru et al., 2019). As one of the most exposed tourist modalities, snow-based tourism has received special attention (see, for example, Trawöger, 2014; Bonzanigo et al., 2016). Adaptation in the form of snow making facilities is now widespread but depending on altitude, orientation, and water and energy availability and prices, it may become unfit to guarantee the opening of ski resorts during a sufficient number of days to avoid losses (Damm et al., 2017). In sum, increasing temperatures would force to produce snow under unfavorable conditions and therefore at greater costs (Damm et al., 2014; Spandre et al., 2015). One of the key issues appears to be the increase in average temperatures. High emissions scenarios leading to temperature increases above 2°C could cause losses of up to 73 percent for the global ski sector towards midcentury (Scott et al., 2019). Given the uncertainties surrounding the viability of snowmaking, ski resorts are exploring other forms of adaptation (Bourdeau, 2009). The recreational and aesthetic (both natural and cultural) values of mountain areas represent opportunities for attracting visitors to resorts all year round as was already observed at least twenty years ago (Rautenberg, 1998; Bryden and Munro, 2000; Desmichel, 2000). New resources have been added to tourist packages of mountain areas, both those that before were not considered as part of the package (heritage in its multiple manifestations, architectural, gastronomical, religious, etc.) and those created specifically for the package (hiking and mountain bike trails, mountain races, etc.).

3While diversification is in itself a potentially sound strategy to adapt to changing climate conditions it also involves changes in the business models of ski resorts involving increasing competition with other providers of the similar products and services as well as more atomized and fragmented revenues possibly smaller than those of ski. At any rate, diversification has contributed to the expansion of a business model interested in off season activities. Still, snow continues to be the main resource of these resorts with all the uncertainties that this creates.

4In Spain and Catalonia, references on the impact of climate change on tourism show a certain bias towards summer tourism which is not surprising given the critical importance of the sector for the Spanish and Spanish Catalan economies. However, there are a number of contributions focusing explicitly on snow-based tourism (March et al., 2014). Moreover, the three reports on Climate Change and its impacts in Spanish Catalonia have always included a chapter on tourism (Saurí and Llurdés, 2005 and 2010; Fraguell et al., 2017).

5Catalonia currently has 10 Alpine ski resorts, all of them located in the Pyrenees (Fig. 1). Ski has become in recent years a key sector in the livelihood of the Pyrenees providing about 11,500 jobs (2,500 direct and 9,000 indirect) and some 350 million euros per year of revenue. In most resorts skiers come from Catalonia. However, in Baqueira Beret, Spanish skiers, especially from Madrid and the Basque Country, are dominant (Cmbsport, 2017). The business association Hosteltur (2014) estimated that every euro spent in a forfeit produces six euros in related activities. However, only a few Alpine ski resorts are clearly profitable and several of them have been turned to the public sector after bankruptcy declarations. Resorts under public ownership generate around 250 direct jobs in the winter season and 223 million euros annually which represents more than 20 percent of the total economic output of the areas in which these resorts are located (UPF Sports Lab, 2018).

Fig. 1. Location and importance (in forfeits sold) of Spanish Catalan Alpine ski resorts

Source: D. Sauri, J. C. Llurdés

6Although these may seem rather modest figures, in the context of the Pyrenees they represent critical magnitudes. In 1990 and for the first time, two million ski forfeits were sold in the Spanish Catalan Pyrenees. This figure has oscillated in the past two decades. In the 2005-2006 season a record of 2.2 million forfeits was reached. In contrast, the season 2011-2012 (1.728.900 forfeits) was rather poor of little snow and the coincidence with the height of the economic crisis that has affected Catalonia and Spain since 2008. The 2017-2018 seasons set a new record of 2.3 million forfeits sold again after an excellent winter in snow terms and the improvement in the economy. Averages for the last decade give a figure slightly below two million forfeits sold annually (Fig. 2). Baqueira Beret and Masella have always been the two more active resorts (41 and 20.5 percent, respectively, of forfeits sold in the 2017-2018 season); next comes La Molina (15 percent) connected to Masella, while the rest adds up the remaining 23.5 percent. When comparing these figures with the development of non-snow related activities, the first two resorts do not show much leverage in relation with the rest. Therefore, an interesting question appears regarding the contribution of ski to the general development of mountain areas (Lasanta et al., 2007): whether larger resorts have an advantage over smaller resorts in terms of incorporating effectively these activities to their benefit and to the benefit of surrounding areas, or, on the contrary, smaller resorts could manage a more effective adaptation than larger resorts in terms of new activities.

Fig. 2: Number of forfeits sold (2011-2018). Spanish Catalan Alpine ski resorts

Source: D. Sauri, J. C. Llurdés

7Climatic conditions in the Spanish Catalan Pyrenees are responsible of important uncertainties regarding skiing. First, almost all Spanish Catalan resorts have minimal snow packs below 1900-2000 m of altitude and forecasts question the future viability for ski in those areas. Second, climatic variability, accentuated by the latitudinal factor and also by Mediterranean influences, has a clear impact on the number of ski days (Pons et al., 2015). Finally, the nearby resorts of Andorra and Southern France, most of them with a North orientation and currently very accessible from Barcelona and other Spanish Catalan cities, have become formidable competitors attracting more and more skiers.

8Alpine skiing in Catalonia has to face more challenges. First, and also an issue for the Spanish and European ski resorts, is a stalemate market which remains stable despite the increase in the number of ski areas, the dissemination of new, snow-based modalities, better weather forecasts and accessibility, improvements in services provided, etc. (Catalan Federation of Winter Sports, 2012; Vanat, 2019). To all this, Spanish Catalan resorts must add their relative small size which not only limits the number of domestic customers but makes difficult the capture of foreign skiers. Another potentially important problem, common to many ski resorts of the developed world, is the aging of the population. For some managers, this may become a challenge for the future as important as climate change (Saurí and Llurdés, 2005).

9Assessments of global climate change in recent years have continued to expand and deepen our knowledge on this phenomenon and its impacts. Major advances have been made regarding the downscaling of projected temperature, precipitation and other climate variables. Reports exist for Europe (European Environment Agency, 2017) and the Mediterranean region (Cramer et al., 2019). Regarding the Pyrenees, we must mention the climate scenarios of the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (2012), the Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia (Martín-Vide, 2017), several studies from the Observatory for the Sustainability of Andorra (OBSA) and the last report from the Observatory of Climate Change of the Pyrenees (OPCC) (2018).

10Regionalized projections of temperature and precipitation in Catalonia for the present century are available from the Catalan Meteorological Service (Meteocat). Models and projections have been downscaled to three main sub-regions in Catalonia: the Pyrenees, the central lands and the coastal areas. Regarding temperature, projected average increase oscillates between 0.9 °C and 2 °C for 2050. Increase is expected to be the norm for the whole of Catalonia but would be especially significant in the Pyrenees during summer. Precipitation, on the other hand, appears to be more elusive and projections offer a disparity of results. However, most models show a decline of 6.8 percent for the whole of Catalonia for 2050 in comparison with current values. All models and projections are based on scenarios of moderate increases in emissions of greenhouse gases. Scenarios based on growing emissions give increases of average temperature up to 4 °C. In all cases and for Catalonia, the Pyrenees appears to be the area where the effects of climate change would be more acute (Catalan Office for Climate Change, 2012).

11Critical factors for the presence of natural snow are altitudes (maximum and minimum) of ski trails in each resort and, even more important, the orientation. In this sense, Western resorts and especially Baqueira enjoy relatively high altitudes while Eastern resorts are located at lower elevations. Furthermore, the northwestern orientation of Baqueira gives this resort a privileged location because it exposes ski slopes to the more humid Atlantic conditions while the rest of resorts depend on the Mediterranean-influenced drier conditions. Pons et al. (2015) estimated the effects of temperature increase on the viability of ski resorts in the Pyrenees. These authors considered three scenarios: current conditions, an increase of 2 °C in average temperature, and an increase of 4 °C in average temperature. Furthermore, they simulated impacts for a scenario of just naturally occurring snow and for another scenario involving the production of artificial snow. Natural viability was defined as a minimum snow cover of 30 cm for a minimum of 100 days per season whereas technical viability was defined as the achievement of the same conditions using artificial snow. The results are devastating for the Spanish Catalan ski sector since only one resort (Baqueira Beret) would be viable in any of the scenarios. Even with snowmaking, three resorts would not be viable under the +2 °C (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: Natural and technical viability of the Spanish Catalan Alpine ski resorts (scenarios + 2 °C and + 4 °C)

Source: D. Sauri, J. C. Llurdés Based on Pons et al. (2015).

12The impacts of unfavorable climate scenarios are well perceived by residents of towns and villages near the ski resorts whose livelihoods depend to an important extent on snow-based activities. In a survey contrasting the perceptions of impacts by climate change in areas of winter and summer tourism in Catalonia, it was found that, in general terms, residents in the Pyrenees were more aware and expressed more concern for these impacts than residents in coastal areas regarding jobs, future tourist development and even water availability (March et al., 2014).

13One of the most recurrent strategies to compensate for the natural variability of snow in the Alpine resorts of the Spanish Catalan Pyrenees has been the increase in snowmaking capacity during the last decades and especially since the disastrous winter of 1988-89 (table 1 and Fig. 4a i 4b).

Table 1: Main background data of Spanish Catalan Alpine ski resorts
(2009-2019)

Source: compiled with data from Saurí and Llurdés (2005, 2010) and www.infonieve.es/estaciones-esqui

Fig. 4a and 4b: Main background data of Spanish Catalan Alpine ski resorts (2009-2019)

Source: compiled with data from Saurí and Llurdés (2005, 2010) and www.infonieve.es/estaciones-esqui

14 In 2009 Spanish Catalan resorts operated 2,208 snow making devices; in 2019 this number had risen to 2,722 (23.2% increase). Snowmaking has permitted the expansion in the number of ski trails with artificial snow from 347 (2009) to 415 (2019) and of their total length as well as of the skiable area (+ 19% increase). A special mention should be made to Baqueira-Beret: during the last decade, this resort increased the number and length of ski trails with artificial snow (66 and 50 percent respectively) and the number of snow making devices (29.3%), resulting in an increase of 8.8 percent in the number of skiers per hour. In the 2017-2018 season, Baqueira Beret concentrated 40 percent of skiers of Spanish Catalan resorts (41 percent of the total on average since 2010). Baqueira is the largest winter resort in Spain and, probably, one of the few viable resorts for the whole Pyrenees under a warmer climate.

15 Snowmaking has been labelled as a "maladaptation" action since it may create important economic and environmental problems (Barnett and O'Neil, 2010). Proponents of snowmaking defend that the amount of water used is small (the equivalent to one day consumption for a city such as Barcelona). Moreover, as a non-consumptive activity, more than 80 percent of the water used is returned to the environment while environmental regulations for rivers are scrupulously respected. As to energy, comparisons with the consumption of other tourist modalities (for instance, airplanes transporting tourists to Caribbean destinations) also yields favorable outcomes. Opponents to snowmaking defend that large amounts of water are needed to produce snow and that, although a non-consumptive use, water for snowmaking may be returned to the environment in different quality conditions and to different basins thus disrupting natural flows. The other major source of concern is energy as it is argued that electricity for snowmaking may represent over 50 percent of total electricity consumption by Spanish Catalan ski resorts. In this sense, water shortages and mounting energy costs could jeopardize snowmaking even in the absence of temperature increase.

16 A more fundamental adaptation strategy, especially in the mid and long term, would be to pursue a transition from seasonal ski resorts to all year mountain resorts. This is not a new strategy since before the current preoccupation with climate change, many ski resorts were already seeking for off season alternatives, either by promoting sports tourism (Dienot and Theiller, 1999), rural tourism (Cànoves ., 2004) or landscape and cultural heritage (Métailié and Rodríguez, 2011). That is, in addition to maintaining and expanding the range of snow-based activities, resorts would have to search for forms of sport and leisure not dependent on snow but that can still take advantage of the environmental attractiveness of mountain areas. In the case of the Spanish Catalan Pyrenees, this strategy has shown some progress although very unevenly (table 2). Around 2005, most resorts placed efforts on other adaptation measures such as the increase in snowmaking capacity; the expansion of ski tracks; the purchase of climate insurance and the reorganization of the business model towards the creation of larger and more competitive companies. In 2010, non-snow related activities had gained a greater presence (Saurí and Llurdés, 2010). In the last decade the overall number of these activities expanded from 42 to 69, the most popular being hiking trails (offered by all resorts) and mountain biking probably because they require little specific infrastructure, are largely compatible, and can use resorts as starting and ending points. A second group of activities is mostly oriented towards families with children involving adventure circuits, playgrounds, some water sports, and horseback and pony excursions. The most recent additions fall within the field of nature and heritage discoveries involving visits and sightseeing of nearby areas with environmental or cultural values (Fraguell ., 2017). This is a very important question given the fact that any strategy aimed at promoting off season activities should be developed within a global assessment of the area where the resort is located.

Table 2. No-winter activities in Spanish Catalan Alpine ski resorts (2019)

1. Horse riding and ponies / 2. Boating / 3. Archery / 4. Hiking / 5. Segway / 6. Tubbies / 7. Spa / 8. Wildlife observation / 9. Mountain biking/ 10. Fishing and water sports / 11. Observatory / 12. Heritage / 13. Chairlift / 14. Adventure circuits; amusement areas / 15. Mountaineering, rock climbing / 16. Nordic walking / 17. Quads, karts / 18. Frisbee golf / 19. Virtual racing, trail running, / 20. 4-wheel drive tours / 21. Road cycling / 22. Paintball

Source: compiled from the websites of ski resorts webpages (accessed February 2019).

17 Despite an increasing interest, resorts still show some reluctance to explore more fully possibilities for intensifying the transition especially when compared to the continuous interest in diversifying and reinforcing snow-related activities considered after all, key to the business: more ski tracks, new snow-based sports, inclusive circuits of the number of tracks, riders, more aggressive price policies, nocturnal and inclusive circuits, joint forfeits between resorts, accessibility and weather information improvements, implementation of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), etc. (Cristobal-Fransi ., 2018). Secondly, ski resorts may have to confront competition by the many small and medium businesses present in the nearby areas specializing in the same products and, at the eyes of potential customers, might be handicapped by their association with ski. Finally, and at least in the short term, for some resorts it is only profitable to remain open in winter since a weekend of a good ski season may attract the same volume of visitors as in the whole summer season.

18Developing off season activities involves the consideration of at least two important caveats: first, the fact that some of these activities could be affected by climate change as well, and second, that certain activities may cause significant environmental impacts. In the first case, climate change may deteriorate flora, fauna and mountain landscapes to the point of making unattractive activities such as hiking, fishing, nature observation, etc. As to impacts, activities such as mountain bike trails could induce soil erosion, losses of flora and fauna and landscape impoverishment.

19The impact of climate change on the snow-based tourist sector in Catalonia is likely to be significant given the high exposure to increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation. In this sense, tourism based on snow may be the "canary in the coalmine" acting as an early warning of a full range of potential impacts that would affect later on beach and other tourist modalities. That said, climate change needs to be considered in the context of the many more challenges affecting the Spanish Catalan ski sector, especially the relatively small sizes of resorts, the lack of a critical mass of skiers, the growing competition by resorts in Andorra and France or the costly investments in renovating and updating resorts. Financially the situation of the sector is extremely problematic: the ownership of six of the ten resorts has been passed to the regional government of Catalonia through a subsidiary company, another resort is owned by a local council, while the remaining three are private. Between 2007 and 2016, public resorts suffered losses above 60 million euros (Fraguell et al., 2017). This model is subject to criticism under the argument that spending public money on ruinous activities is unfair to other potential sectors also in need. And yet, for many, there is no alternative to ski and people in the Pyrenees do not want the closure of any resort. Put simply, from this perspective ski has to continue no matter the losses because otherwise the Pyrenees would be decimated in economic and demographic terms. It is possible that this argument responds to the generally accepted idea that ski resorts have created wealth, thus contributing to stop or at least attenuate migration processes. But this tends to hide a far more complex reality with negative consequences such as loss of local capacity to manage the territory, excessive weight of the service sector in comparison with agrarian and forestry activities, and the perennial dependence on climate (García, 2012). As said before, the current development model is economically unsustainable with or without climate change. In contrast, other arguments point that positive effects of ski resorts are limited to the nearest municipalities and do not extend much beyond these (Lasanta et al., 2007). As to the privately owned resorts they are all profitable and, one of them, Baqueira Beret, may be able not only to resist both socioeconomic pressures and growing climate constraints but also capture a larger portion of the ski business in Catalonia and Spain (Campos et al., 2018).

20Under these climatic constraints, a sufficient length of the snow cover needed for skiing cannot be guaranteed alone with natural conditions in almost all resorts. Therefore, all have opted for introducing snowmaking facilities, which can be seen as a form of adaptation. To a greater or lesser degree (more so those located in the Eastern Pyrenees) all resorts are now dependent on snowmaking but for increase of temperature above 2 °C even snowmaking will not be enough and only the Baqueira Beret resorts (the Westernmost resort in the central Pyrenees) will be able to survive. Still the most likely consequence of climate change will not be the complete disappearance or even a significant decrease of ski in the Pyrenees but rather the territorial redistribution from Eastern to Western resorts.

21In front of this challenge another, more comprehensive but equally challenging adaptation strategy for ski resorts would be to undergo a transition towards their transformation into mountain resorts able to break the snow dependency and offer other activities all year round. This transition faces however important challenges and difficult tradeoffs, especially whether or not alternative activities will be able to compensate for the loss of skiers. This is why it is so important to attempt to maintain skiing as much as possible even acknowledging the impacts of snowmaking. The crucial question therefore is whether ski must continue to be the main tourist activity of the Pyrenees or rather must become secondary to other activities. Even if the answer points towards this second option, any change in the tourist business model must include climate change as well and also the possibility that the new model creates its own set of negative environmental impacts.

22Hence sustainable and perhaps not so sustainable measures will have to be applied to ensure as much as possible snow although, at any rate, ski seasons would probably be shorter and increasingly unmanageable from an economic point of view. Thus ski will not disappear from the Spanish Catalan Pyrenees in the next decades but unless a renovated productive base (based or not on tourism) consolidates, the socioeconomic future of this area, with a few exceptions, appears rather bleak.

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winter tourism / climate change / adaptation strategies / catalan pyrenees

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Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies of Spanish Catalan Alpine ...

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Ski tourism in Catalonia has long been a fundamental socioeconomic asset for the Pyrenees region. However, in recent years some studies increasingly warn about the dubious future viability of most ski resorts as a result of climate change, and recommend the implementation of adaptation strategies for seasons in which snow maybe absent or insufficient.

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Medium instead of high snow reliability is economically bearable for ski destinations.

Low snow reliability and bad snow experiences could cause market-wide demand losses of 64%.

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Abstract

Climate change will affect tourism as one of the sectors most dependent on natural resources. Due to the strong dependency of many peripheral areas on tourism, climate change has the potential to destabilize regional economies. The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of climate change on ski tourism demand. A tourist survey ( n = 1957) with a choice experiment conducted in 53 ski areas in Austria provides the data for our analyses. Results show that snow is the most important factor for destination choice. Nevertheless, preferences of respondents are heterogeneous. Measures that enhance price-performance ratio, i.e. lowering lift ticket prices and avoiding crowding, turn out to be the most suitable compensation for suboptimal snow conditions. As long as substitute ski areas with better snow conditions exist, destinations with marginal snow conditions are likely to face severe demand losses (up to 60%). Nevertheless, dynamic pricing has the potential to compensate medium snow reliability. If all destinations are affected by deteriorating snow conditions, total demand reduces by 64% if snow reliability is low. If these conditions and effects are limited to the beginning and the end of the ski season, demand is projected to decline by 18%.

Introduction

Climate change is a major challenge in the 21st century affecting both natural and human systems (IPCC, 2014). Economic sectors with a high dependency on natural resources are particularly affected by a climate change induced alteration of these resources. Consequently, regional economies with a high dependency on such industries are facing an uncertain future and decision makers are required to assess climate change risks and take action against potential impacts in order to foster sustainable development.

The IPCC (2018) marked tourism as one of the key economic sector affected by climate change. In many peripheral areas, tourism is an important pillar for the economic stability. The European Alps are an important example with 120 million guests (Permanent Secretariat of the Alpine Convention, 2010), over 330 million overnight stays (Mayer et al., 2011) generating directly and indirectly 15% of jobs (BAKBasel, 2018). The relevance of tourism is even more pronounced when looking at the regional level, where tourism often represents the main economic activity and source of income, especially in more peripheral and/or higher elevated areas (Tappeiner et al., 2008).

Tourism in general is dependent on natural resources, as e.g. in the Italian Alps where districts with high environmental performance (measured by land degradation) tend to have a specialization in tourism (Salvati and Carlucci, 2011). Tourism is also characterized by high fixed costs (investments) or seasonal step-fixed costs (labor) (Adams, 2019). Therefore, in this sector a region's economic success is especially dependent on capacity utilization. Most tourism municipalities in the Alps have a two peak season, with 48% of overnight stays being generated in the winter season (ASTAT, 2018). Winter tourism is highly dependent on natural resources, first and foremost on snow (Shih et al., 2009). Lack of snow has repeatedly affected tourism performance indicators in past winter seasons in the Alps (Abegg, 1996; Steiger, 2011b) and other markets (Dawson et al., 2009; Pickering, 2011) and was also found to have contributed to the permanent closing of ski resorts (Beaudin and Huang, 2014).

With strong links to up- and downstream industries (e.g. food producers, retail, construction, etc.) tourism has substantial multiplier effects (Castillo et al., 2017) and not only affects income, but also investments and intermediate input. A reduced winter tourism, questioning the profitability of the accommodation sector, could thus have far-reaching consequences for the stability of tourism-dependent economies. Without exaggeration, such a development has the potential to change the economic and social landscape of the alpine arc.

Future prospects of winter tourism have repeatedly been questioned due to the impacts of climate change, both in academia (Scott et al., 2012; Steiger et al., 2019) and in public discussion (Ma and Kirilenko, 2019). The extent of the consequences, especially on a regional to local level, still has not been fully clarified. Moreover it has been noted that demand reactions to changing climatic conditions are still under-researched (Gössling et al., 2012). In a recent review of the scientific literature on climate change and winter tourism, Steiger et al., 2019 found that the majority (46%) of studies are impact and vulnerability assessments focusing on the availability of snow, whereas skier behavioral response studies represent the smallest group with only 10% of studies. They concluded that more knowledge on potential tourist responses to changing climate conditions is required to better inform decision makers on potential risks and opportunities.

With this paper, we want to contribute to a better understanding of climate change impacts on tourism demand and to improve the knowledge base for sustainable winter tourism development. The aim of this paper is to estimate the reaction of winter tourists to potential future snow scenarios. More specifically, we want to address the following questions:

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What are impacts on distribution of demand in a situation where one destination has marginal snow conditions but nearby substitutes are available versus a situation where all alpine destinations are affected by snow deficiency?

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Which snow scenarios would still be bearable with corresponding adaptation of suppliers and which scenarios have the potential to trigger reactions that go beyond the tourism industry?

In order to investigate the above questions and to assess climate change impacts for alpine regions, we also need to address the following questions on tourists' preferences:

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How important are anticipated and actual snow conditions for ski destination choice?

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Are all current ski tourists equally sensitive to snow or do more and less snow sensitive groups exist?

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Is it possible to compensate marginal snow conditions with additional non-snow activities?

It is neither possible to answer all of these questions with a high degree of certainty nor to completely estimate the quantitative effects. Although using quantitative methods, the contribution of this article is to structure and both qualitatively and quantitatively assess customer reaction, in order to draw evidence-based conclusions on regional effects of climate change and climate variability. Our approach contributes to the climate change and winter tourism literature in several novel aspects We use results of a choice experiment completed by a sample of skiing guests in Austria representative (see Methods) for the main source markets to simulate the impacts of climate change on winter tourism demand. Hence, the simulation uses individual data and additionally takes the heterogeneity of preferences and reactions to climatic changes into consideration. We show demand changes both on a local (i.e. individual ski areas) and on a market-level (i.e. Austria). Finally, we investigate the potential of adaptation measures to compensate deteriorating snow reliability and snow conditions.

Section snippets

Literature review

The scientific literature largely agrees that climate change represents a serious risk to ski tourism (Steiger et al., 2019). Snow depth and snow cover duration in the Alps have already declined in the 20th century (Klein et al., 2016; Marty et al., 2017; Schöner et al., 2019) and projections for the upcoming decades show a drastic decline especially at elevations below 2000 m (Gobiet et al., 2014), an altitude where the majority of Austrian ski areas is located. Consequently, the natural ski

Survey and sampling

An in-situ survey was conducted in 53 ski areas in Austria (Fig. 1) on 34 different days between December 2015 and March 2016. The selection of ski areas was based on location, to include all federal states; on size, from local ski areas to internationally renowned; and on elevation to include less and more snow reliable ski areas. This in-situ survey was used to collect e-mail addresses for contacting the respondents to participate in a larger online survey and to personally address potential

Survey results

The most frequently chosen factors for ski destination choice out of 12 factors are the snow conditions, price performance ratio and crowding (Fig. 2).

Factors that are not directly related to skiing, such as landscape/nature and additional leisure activities are chosen considerably less. Surprisingly, factors representing snow reliability and the risk of closed ski slopes due to a lack of snow (i.e. altitude, snowmaking capacity) were only rarely chosen.

'Snow conditions' is not only the most

Discussion

Results of our survey and of the choice experiment show that snow is the most important factor for destination choice. In the former, snow conditions gained a significantly higher ranking than all other factors and in the latter, both snow variables are on average responsible for 48% of the overall evaluation of ski area characteristics. This finding is consistent with previous literature (Carmichael, 1992; Klenosky et al., 1993; Richards, 1996; Godfrey, 1999; Dickson and Faulks, 2007; Won et

Conclusions

In this study we have investigated the impact of climate change on winter tourism demand by using results of a choice experiment for simulation. The originality of our approach is that we used individual data thus considering the heterogeneity of preferences and reaction to marginal snow conditions. We also show that simulated demand changes differ significantly on the local (i.e. ski area) and the market level (i.e. Austria). Including seasonality in the estimation of demand losses was found

Funding

This research was gratefully funded by the Austrian Climate Research Programme (grant number KR14AC7K11929). The funding source was not involved in study design, collection, analysis, interpretation of data or in the decision to submit the article.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Klimaänderung und Tourismus. Klimafolgenforschung am Beispiel des Wintertourismus in den Schweizer Alpen

Management Accounting for the Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure Industries

ASTAT
Tourismus in einigen Alpengebieten

BAKBasel
Benchmarking du tourisme -Le secteur Suisse du tourisme en comparaison internationale, Basel

Entering into the "greenhouse century": recent record temperatures in Switzerland are comparable to the upper temperature quantiles in a greenhouse climate

B. Carmichael
Using conjoint modelling to measure tourist image and analyse ski resort choice

The demand for winter sports: empirical evidence for the largest French ski-lift operator

Attributes of destination choice: British skiing in Canada

IPCC
Climate change 2014: Synthesis report

IPCC
Global warming of 1.5°C

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The impact of climate change on demand of ski tourism - a simulation study based on stated preferences

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Climate change will affect tourism as one of the sectors most dependent on natural resources. Due to the strong dependency of many peripheral areas on tourism, climate change has the potential to destabilize regional economies. The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of climate change on ski tourism demand.

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ISBN: 9789264031692
Published: 18 January 2007
Edited by Shardul Agrawala

Climate change poses a serious challenge to social and economic development in all countries. While international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential, adaptation to the impacts of climate change must also be integrated into sectoral and economic policies worldwide. This report examines the implications of climate change for the economies in the European Alps. It focuses on adaptation measures to address two key vulnerabilities: increasing losses in winter tourism due to reduced snow cover, and increased exposure of settlements and infrastructure to natural hazards.

Climate Change in the European Alps: Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management is the product of a two year study by the OECD Environment Directorate. The report presents the first systematic cross-country analysis of snow-reliability of Alpine ski areas under climate change for five countries in the region: France, Switzerland, Austria, Italy and Germany.

It examines the implications of climate change for a range of natural hazards prevalent in the Alps, with a particular focus on frameworks and financial mechanisms to manage natural hazards in three countries: France, Switzerland and Austria. Technological and behavioural adaptation measures, together with institutional structures and risk transfer mechanisms, are also reviewed.

The implications of this assessment extend beyond the European Alps to other mountain systems which may face similar climate and contextual challenges, for example in North America, Australia and New Zealand. The case of the European Alps, with its high adaptive capacity, provides examples of good practices which are valuable not only for other developed country contexts, but for developing countries as well.

OECD News Release

Table of Contents

Executive Summary - Résumé - Zusammenfassung

Chapter 1: The European Alps: location, economy and climate

Chapter 2: Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism

Chapter 3: Climate change adaptation and natural hazards management

The report in the news

Winter sports face a double threat, from climate and demographic change, 25 January 2018, The Economist

Forum d'Avoriaz - 20/01/2007 - Dans l'édition régionale de France 3 (Rhône Alpes Auvergne), Shardul Agrawala, de la Direction de l'Environnement de l'OCDE, a exposé les chiffres délivrés par l'organisation, ce qui n'a pas manqué d'inquiéter les écologistes et les professionnels des stations de montagne car chaque année la neige s'y fait de plus rare (Copyright: www.france3.fr).

Snow Cannons against the Apocalypse - Der Spiegel - 03/01/2007 - According to a study published at the start of this winter's ski season by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), global warming could jeopardize as many as two-thirds of all ski areas in the Alps.

Global Warming Poses Threat to Ski Resorts in the Alps - New York Times - 15/12/2006 - KITZBÜHEL, Austria - The O.E.C.D. study may focus minds. In Austria today, it says, 83 percent of ski resorts are "snow-reliable," meaning they have enough snow for 100 days a season. If temperatures increased one degree Celsius, only 67 percent would have enough; if they rose two degrees, only half would.

Europe's Endangered Slopes - Carol Matlack, BusinessWeek - 15/12/2006 - The snow is all but a no-show so far this season at many famed ski resorts. Global warming is forcing them to think more about golf and hiking.

OECD warns on Alpine ski future - BBC News - 14/12/2006 - The OECD said sufficient snow may become a thing of the past on lower-lying slopes.

OECD: Global warming could spell ruin for Alps - Edmund Conway, Daily Telegraph - 14/12/2006 - ...Shardul Agrawala of the OECD's environment directorate said: "The Alps accounts for a significant share of global tourism. There will be winners and losers from climate change. The resorts which lie at lower altitudes may lose out as their snow reliability falls, and they lose visitors, or have to invest more in snow-making. Then, the relative attractiveness of high altitude resorts increases."

Ski resorts face uncertain future - Angelique Chrisafis, The Guardian - 14/12/2006 - A report by the OECD yesterday heaped more bad news on Alpine ski resorts, which are already struggling against the warmest weather in 1,300 years, according to Austrian climatologists, with flowers still blooming on some slopes and world ski tournaments being cancelled through lack of snow.

Climate change threatens ski resorts in Europe - Swissinfo - 13/12/2006 - An international report warns almost half of Switzerland's ski regions are facing a lack of snow as a result of global warming.

Global warming threatens German ski resorts (OECD zu Klimawandel) - 13 December 2006 - The OECD sees a difficult future for most ski resorts in Germany. In a new OECD report warns that climate change endangers winter tourism. Report includes interview with Shardul Agrawala, OECD's Environment Directorate (Copyright: www.tagesschau.de/).

European ski resorts fear melting profits - 13 December 2006 - A new OECD report says a critical lack of snow in Europe might be only the tip of the iceberg for its thawing slopes. Sam Eaton reports. Listen to interview with Shardul Agrawala, OECD's Environment Directorate (Copyright: www.marketplace.publicradio.org).

Additional Information

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Climate Change in the European Alps: Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management - OECD

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Data and research on climate change including adaptation, climate finance, international climate framework, carbon markets, UNFCCC, cities, flood risk, Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG). , As the first flurries are coating Alpine slopes, questions arise: was this balmy autumn an exception or a harbinger of the effects of climate change?

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Ski is becoming an elite product: ski-pass have increased by 8.7% for 2022/23 season compared to the previous season (2021/22); the average daily cost in Veneto's Alps (2022/23) for a family of 3, including skilift and equipement rental, is 270 euros per day

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When fellow skiers sent Amadeo Reale photos of churned mud and grassy slopes at their French and Swiss ski resorts last week, he shuddered in sympathy, but felt no sense of foreboding. As the president of Cortina d'Ampezzo's historic Sci Club 18, he is confident that Italy's premier ski resort in the Dolomites is pretty much immune to the no-snow-pocalypse that emptied out Europe's prime ski destinations over the winter holidays. After all, most European resorts are located at 900-1,000 meters (2,952 to 3,280 ft.) above sea level. Cortina d'Ampezzo starts at 1,600 meters (5,249 ft.) and ascends to 2,362 m (7,749 ft.). Even if the lower slopes get a little slushy from above average temperatures, as they did last week, well, there is always manufactured snow. Cortina d'Ampezzo will host the women's world ski championships this weekend, and after five days of low temperatures and steady efforts by the resort's snow cannons, the slopes are in perfect condition, says Reale.

A lot hinges on a steady snowpack. In February 2026 Cortina d'Ampezzo will host the Winter Olympics' downhill events, and Reale is confident that there will be plenty of snow (manmade or natural), and enough cold weather, to make it stick. But artificial snow is only a stopgap solution, and an expensive one at that. Snow cannons only work at freezing temperatures or below. "The only thing we are scared of is having one or two months of hot weather," he says, which is unlikely at the resort's elevation, at least for the near future.

Over the winter holidays, though, most of Europe's resorts got a taste of that much warmer future-the Swiss resort of Gstaad ended up flying in snow by helicopter from elsewhere in Switzerland when temperatures hit 20°C (68°) in early January. It's not the first time Europe's ski resorts have been without snow, but it's the first time that snow cannons, at least since they were first deployed in the '80s, couldn't make up for the shortfall because of high temperatures. This drove home the reality of winter without snow to resorts and skiers alike.
A version of this story first appeared in the Climate is Everything newsletter. To sign up, click here.
Winter sports have become a major economic engine for alpine villages that have pinned their fortunes on regular snow and the skiers that seek it out every year, spending hundreds of dollars a day in lift fees, hotels, restaurants, and equipment rentals. When there is no snow, there are no tourists, and no income. Rolando Galli says that his ski lift operation, in the Italian Apennines resort of Abetone, is down €2 million ($2.15 million) compared to this time last year, due to a lack of snow this season. For the area as a whole he estimates that it comes to about €10 million ($10.7 million) in lost lodging, dining, and shopping revenues.

While temperatures have gone back down to below freezing in most of Europe's alpine regions this week, the climate trajectory suggests that muddy ski slopes will become a regular part of the future. Already the region has averaged a 2°C increase in temperatures since pre-industrial times, compared to the globe's 1.2°C. That doesn't mean there won't be any snow, in fact, there could be increased periods of excessive snow, interspersed by bouts of rain or even hot days-extreme weather variations are as much an effect of climate change as increasing average temperatures. That doesn't bode well for businesses, like ski resorts, that depend on reliable conditions.

Even if it dumps snow for the rest of the season, Galli says, there is no way to make up for this year's lost income. He has already diversified his business model by running lifts in the summer for hikers and vacationers, which helps, but for winter there aren't many options. He tried running the lifts even without snow this year, but not many tourists were willing to brave the fog and rain for little more than a glimpse of the end of their noses by the time they reached the top of the mountain. "It's not like climate change means warm weather and nice views at 1,500 meters above sea level in December," he says. Until it does, the only solution for saving the industry, he says, is to use artificial snow as much as possible to help people ski through the winter. Resorts further south may not even be able to bet on manmade snow in years to come. The ubiquitous snow cannons at Campitello Matese, one of the largest and most popular ski resorts in central-southern Italy, were paralyzed earlier this month due to persistent high temperatures. There, at least, would-be skiers were able to pivot to more typical summertime activities, like quad bikes and horse riding.

Reale, in Cortina d'Ampezzo, says Italy's northern resorts will be spared that fate, at least in the short term. "We all know global warming is a serious thing, but for the future of skiing in Cortina, I don't think there is any problem, especially with artificial snow."

More from TIME

Longer term, it's not so clear. A 2022 study published in the journal Current Issues in Tourism, predicted that out of the 21 cities, including Cortina d'Ampezzo, that have hosted the Winter Olympics since 1924, only a handful will reliably offer safe and fair conditions for competition by mid-century under current greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Even under a low emissions scenario in line with the goals of the Paris climate agreement to keep warming below 1.5°C since the pre-industrial area, Cortina d'Ampezzo is only rated "marginal" for downhill events by the 2050s; without emission reductions, it is rated unacceptable. (Out of all previous hosts, only Sapporo in Japan is considered a reliable bet for the 2078 or 2082 games under either emission scenarios.)

Last year, the International Olympic Committee held off naming a host for the 2030 Winter Olympics, saying it is now considering rotating the event among several hosts as a response to the impact of climate change on winter sports. Last week, organizers of the World Cup Skiing Championships were forced to cancel this year's men's downhill and giant slalom events in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, for lack of snow, and a "not favorable weather forecast" for the scheduled Jan. 28-29 dates.

Italians are taking note. "Take off the blinders: The future of skiing does not exist, and those who work in tourism must accept it," screamed a Jan. 12 headline in the Italian online newspaper Linkiesta, pointing to pessimistic studies predicting the end of skiing in the Dolomites by as soon as 2036. Marco Bussone, president of Italy's Union of Mountain Communities, told the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera that it was vital for winter sports meccas to start investing in summertime activities. We "need to reflect on what mountains [mean] today in the light of climate change."

While no one is writing off winter sports just yet, a fuller embrace of summertime options is probably a good business strategy. In addition to running lifts and operating mountain lodges in the summertime, Galli, who is also the president of the Abetone tourist board and a board member of the National Ski Lifts Association, suggests that the government and mountain communities invest in reservoirs. In winter they can provide water for the increased use of snow cannons, and in the summer they could become tourist destinations-for fishing, boating and sightseeing. And, in anticipation of another symptom of a changing climate, they also provide water to combat bushfires. "Climate change is something that we have to face," he says. "We can't just put our heads in the ground and ignore it."

Contact us at letters@time.com.

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Italy's Ski Resorts Grapple With a Snowless Future

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When fellow skiers sent Amadeo Reale photos of churned mud and grassy slopes at their French and Swiss ski resorts last week, he shuddered in sympathy, but felt no sense of foreboding.