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Involves going beyond forecasting identifying possible ways that the organisation could develop in the future

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Foresight is going further than forecasting by trying to identify what will happen to an organisation in the future

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Foresight goes beyond simple forecasting and tries to identify possible ways that the future of the organisation could develop.

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Foresight goes beyond simple forecasting and tries to identify possible ways that the future of the organisation could develop.

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Foresight is a useful technique used in future strategic planning. It goes beyond the planning technique of forecasting, which is a quantified prediction of future events, and attempts to identify possible ways in which an organisation’s future could develop. Foresight can be carried out by a variety of techniques, such as visioning, relevance trees and scenario planning.

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Organisations must develop an understanding of how to react to future changes and how they can develop opportunities in response to these changes.

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Foresight is more complex than forecasting, as it attempts to identify ways an organisation could develop. It not only predicts the future, but develops an understanding of the potential changes that have the ability to be turned into opportunities

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Foresight is a structured approach of understanding potential future scenarios to proactively prepare for change.

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Is the proactive approach of identifying possible ways an organisation can develop. Looks to attempt to predict the future but also develop an understanding of the potential changes which may result in more opportunities but also potentially highlight the risks as well

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Foresight is anticipation of the future. It goes beyond forecasting and tries to identify, understand and prepare for potential changes/developments.

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Foresight techniques not including Scenario Planning

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Foresight techniques not including Scenario Planning

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Visioning involves developing a mental image of the future of the organisation.

Role-Playing is when a group is given a scenario to act out what they would do if it was real.

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Is the ability to develop past forecasting, anticipate and prepare for future challenges, trends, and opportunities.

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Scenario Planning

Delphi Method

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Remember to apply this to the scenario - case style not knowledge 

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Remember to apply this to the scenario - case style not knowledge 

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Morphological Analysis- Investigation into issues that NSF have faced would be to explore possibly why the government of Country Z cut funding for the staff and reasons for dong this.

Visioning- This could help NSF develop a vision of the organisation in the future based on if the economy, environment and social and technological environment was to continue.

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As discussed above, there are a selection of techniques we can use in employing foresight in our strategic planning. One of these is visioning; this technique involves developing a mental image of the organisation in the future, and management then devise ways in which to reach this future ideal. The mental image should be realistic, attractive, and better than the company’s current state. For example, we may envision the company in a position where we are prepared for any strict changes in regulations, and have contingency plans we can turn to in these circumstances. We would then develop these plans.

Another technique we can employ through foresight is the use of relevance trees. This involves starting with a clear goal, which is then traced back through any trends and events on which it depends. This allows the organisation to determine what needs to change or be developed in order for us to achieve the desired outcome. For example, our goal may be to have improved demographics in sports participation, and we would then work through the trends and events that would allow this to happen.

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This could allow NSF to change their planning of the scenario and strategic options if the economic, technological and social environment keeps changing. This would then make the scenario planning relevant and more robust and providing strategic options and more adaptability

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Morphological Analysis is an investigation into the components of a large scale problem. In this example we've been given the reasons as to why NSF has suffered in previous years. As there are multiple issues, morphological analysis will help dig into all of these problems and come up with an action plan for all of them. An example of this would be looking into the reasons as to why there is a gap in the knowledge of the staff and how that works in tandem with the issues surrounding the decisions that have led to a lack of volunteers in recent years.

Relevance trees is a technique used to work back from a clear goal and work back to determining what needs to be changed. An example of this within NSF would be to look at a clear goal such as number of volunteers required to make NSF a success and work back to the root of this to work out what has to be done for this to be a possibility. An example of a strategy that could be applied to achieve this would be to educate the population on the importance of sports and culture on the demographics that need it most and hopefully from there NSF will see an increase in the number of volunteers.

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Include:

Scenario planning - for example impact of changes within the country the impact of government funding cuts to see the need to cut costs, or invest in other revenue generating activities to offset and grow the revenue in the longer term. Making the group stronger with more diverse revenue streams and less reliance on government spending.

Visioning- would help with the change in consumer demand increasing technology how they can capitalise on the changes within the environment to benefit the group as a whole, which could be used in conjunction with opportunity mapping.

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Visioning

This involves developing a desirable future state of the organisation. NFS may visualise a nation where sport participation is high across all age groups/ communities. It may use this vision to align efforts and resources.

Role playing

Role playing involves giving a group a hypothetical situation and asking them to respond to the situation as if it was real. NSF could provide a scenario such as the complete ceasing of government funding, and also simulate minimal funding from the private sector. The group can then think strategically about how to respond .The response to this may be seeking community support, or find new revenue streams. This encourages creative thinking and helps NSF become more responsive to change.

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Scenario planning is another technique we may use as part of foresight. This involves the creation of detailed possible futures that the organisation may encounter, which leads us to create contingency plans. There are a number of stages involved in this process.

The first stage is to identify high impact, high uncertainty factors in the environment; for example, we may identify an abrupt change in regulations regarding sports in communities that could restrict our ability to operate. For each of these factors, we would then identify possible futures.

The next stage is to cluster together the different factors, in order to identify any various consistent future scenarios. We would then write these scenarios, usually around three, and identify the financial and strategic implications and their associated probabilities. For each of these scenarios, we would assess and identify any possible courses of action for the company. In our situation, this could be finding new sources of finance as our government funding has been cut, and private investment declines.

The final stages are to monitor reality in order to see which scenarios, if any, are unfolding; if scenarios we have planned for, such as new technology disrupting the number of young people participating in sports even further, come to occur, we would have contingency plans to combat this risk. Finally, the scenarios, and our strategic options, are revised or redeployed as necessary.

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The phases of scenario planning are as follows:

firstly identify areas of high impact for example volunteer numbers, less demand due to shift in behaviours / demand

then identify the various outcomes.

then cluster them together to identify potential future outcomes.

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Identifying high-impact, high-uncertainty factors is the starting point of scenario planning as it allows us to identify the factors that could cause the highest risk to NSF. From here we are able to identify possible futures and use this to write scenarios. In this case, we may look at the example of the rapid growth of technology on the impact of the demographic of NSF users and look at the futures of this. This could be how we need to use technology to attract future participants and embrace the technology.

From here, we would identify possible courses of action and analyse how our new strategy of using technology has impacted our environment and look at both the positives this could bring but also the negatives. We would then monitor this strategy before finally revising to see if we can learn any lessons from this strategy.

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We usually start scenario planning with a PESTLE analysis to identify High impact and high-uncertainty factors. And then identify possible futures.

Political - funding is being reduced from the government, NSF is heavily reliant on government funding therefore it has a big impact and will cause further uncertainty.

Social - The ageing population of the country is having a detrimental impact on the amount of people participating in sport. If this continues then there will be less and less people interested in engagin in sports.

Technological - Technology based entertainment products are reducing the number of young people participating in sports.

Next we need ot cluster together different factors to indentify various consistent future scenarios, from the examples above one consistent scenario is the lack of younger people playing sports.