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Bam

Part 1.)
Population of Iowa https://www.google.com/search?q=population+of+Iowa&oq=population+of+Iowa&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i433i457j0i433j0l3j0i433l2.3062j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Ernst page: “Issues.” Issues - Senator Joni Ernst, 2020, www.ernst.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/key-issues.
Greenfield page: “Join Theresa's Senate Campaign.” Theresa Greenfield, 2020, greenfieldforiowa.com/.
Iowa voting history: “Iowa Presidential Election Voting History.” 270toWin.Com, 2018, www.270towin.com/states/Iowa.

Part 2.)
“Meet Joni.” Meet Joni - Senator Joni Ernst, www.ernst.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/meet-joni.
“Issues.” Joni for Iowa, 27 Sept. 2019, joniernst.com/issues/.
“Issues.” Issues - Senator Joni Ernst, www.ernst.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/key-issues.
“Sen. Joni Ernst - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/joni-ernst/summary?cid=N00035483.
“About Theresa.” Theresa Greenfield, greenfieldforiowa.com/about/.
“Theresa on the Issues.” Theresa Greenfield, greenfieldforiowa.com/issues/.
“Iowa Senate 2020 Race.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2020&id=IAS2&spec=N.
“ABOUT POET.” POET, poet.com/about.
“About Us.” Votesane, 13 Nov. 2014, votesane.com/about-us.
“Who We Are.” McAninch Corporation - Des Moines Iowa Earthmoving Contractor | McAninch Corporation, www.mcaninchcorp.com/about/who-we-are/.
“Duty Free Americas.” Duty Free Americas - Shop in Stores, Airports and Online, www.dutyfreeamericas.com/corporate/about-us/.
“Berkshire Hathaway.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 3 Nov. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkshire_Hathaway.
“Joni Ernst, Official Portrait, 116th Congress.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Joni_Ernst,_official_portrait,_116th_Congress_2.jpg .
“Theresa Greenfield.” Des Moines Register, US Today, www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/c0516a2d8555cf19e02336a2491e5a0223bf26bd/c=24-0-306-376/local/-/media/2017/06/30/IAGroup/DesMoines/636344217726349782-Theresa-Greenfield-headshot.png?width=282&height=376&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp.

Part 3.)
“2020 Senate Election Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, ABC News Internet Ventures, 13 Oct. 2020, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/iowa/.
“Election 2020 - Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Greenfield.” RealClearPolitics, Real Clear Holdings LLC, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_greenfield-7072.html.
“Awkward Debate Moment for Joni Ernst in the Midst of Tight Race.” CNN, Cable News Network, 19 Oct. 2020, www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/19/joni-ernst-iowa-senate-race-zeleny-dnt-lead-vpx.cnn.
Zeleny, Jeff. “Trump's Troubles Weighing on Iowa Senate Race as Joni Ernst Fights for Reelection.” CNN, Cable News Network, 12 Oct. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/politics/iowa-senate-race-joni-ernst/index.html.
Hooper, Kelly. “Poll: Trump, Ernst Lead in Iowa.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 1 Nov. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/10/31/iowa-poll-senate-presidential-election-433762.
Garber, Jonathan. “Coastal Donors Pouring Cash into Tight Iowa Senate Race.” Fox News, FOX News Network, 30 Oct. 2020, www.foxnews.com/politics/iowa-senate-race-costal-elites-influence.

Part 4.)“Understanding the Election.” Associated Press, www.ap.org/media-center/understanding-the-election.
Broadwater, Luke. “Joni Ernst Wins in Iowa, Frustrating Democrats' Push for Senate Majority.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 4 Nov. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/politics/iowa-joni-ernst.html.

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$47,004,937 total raised, over twice as much as Ernst

Not taking money from corporate PACs (they only make up 1.78%)

She mentions this specifically on her healthcare page, not taking anything from corporations in the healthcare or pharmaceutical industries

Financed almost completely by individual contributions; 34% ≤ $200, 60.6% larger contribution.

Are there any connections to be made between the candidate’s fundraising and their policy positions?  Draw some conclusions from the information.

Refusing to take money from corporate PACs, as well as many of her stances on issues such as education demonstrate her dedication to the working and middle class, and ultimately the general people. That focus; her focus on helping the agricultural, Black American, and LGBTQ+ communities; and her focus on education and helping to increase opportunity for Iowans has likely been the deciding factor in her raising over twice as much money as Ernst. She also talks a lot more about a lot more issues than Ernst does, which helps her appeal to a larger audience.

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$27,207,610 total from 2015-2020

12.66% from corporate PACs, 43.81% large individual contributions, and only 27.89 ≤ $200 individual contributions

Top 5 contributors:

Votesane PAC

Essentially a third party that provides information about candidates and lets people donate money to a chosen candidate through them.

Berkshire Hathaway

Huge multinational conglomerate holding company, owns things like GEICO, Duracell, and Dairy Queen, among many others in various industries. No notable ties to Iowa.

Duty Free Americas

Large travel retailer. No notable ties to Iowa.

McAninch Corp

Leading earthmoving contractor in central Iowa

Poet LLC

Biofuel company; based in South Dakota but operates plants in Iowa and other states. Small ties to Iowa.

Notably large amount of money raised from the retired— $5,161,333, with the next most being $1,144,742 from the security and investment industry.

Are there any connections to be made between the candidate’s fundraising and their policy positions?  Draw some conclusions from the information.

A significant percentage of fundraising came from corporate PACs as a result of her pro-business economic views, which explains the interest of companies with little to do specifically with Iowa, like Berkshire Hathaway, Duty Free Americas, and Poet LLC. Her large sum of money raised from the retired is explained by her support for Social Security and Medicare, specifically stated on her website “for seniors”.

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Helping veterans through healthcare and jobs

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Pro-choice (abortion)

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Pro-gun-rights

Supported bill allowing concealed carry in states outside of one's home state where it is allowed

Reversed ban on M855 ammunition, which is commonly used for target shooting and hunting

Does not believe stricter gun control is the solution

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Expanding background checks and violence research for gun owning

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Anti-abortion after pregnancy for ~5 months

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Highly values education; good public education, affordable higher education, apprenticeships

Helping the agricultural community by ending unfair tariffs and policies

Working towards fixing climate change

Reforming the immigration system

LGBTQ+ Equality

Fighting against political corruption, especially in regards to large corporations

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Pro-Social Security and Medicare for seniors (both Ernst and Greenfield)

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Helping veterans through healthcare

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Notably nothing written on either of her websites about racial or ethnic inequality

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Racial Equality

Protecting voting rights

Policing reforms (justice for Black Americans) with more transparency

Preventing hate crimes and systematic racism

Expanding access to high quality affordable health care, especially to close racial health disparities

Requiring the Department of Education to return to civil rights research

Ending discriminatory loaning practices that denied Black business owners equal opportunity

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Other

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Patient focused

Affordable

Enhance competition

Increase flexibility

Ensure people have a voice over their health care decisions

The patients, their families, and doctors should have the say over health care decisions, not the government

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Healthcare is a right

Access to quality, affordable health care for all

Strengthen the Affordable Care Act

Forming a public health insurance option for Iowans

Bring down costs in general: co-pays, prescription drugs, etc.

Helping rural hospitals and healthcare in those underserved areas

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Healthcare

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Union rights

Against large corporations influencing the government and overshadowing the working and middle class

Equal opportunity and pay for women

Ensure people have the education and skills to succeed

Investment in infrastructure

Pro-entrepreneurs / startups

Expanding opportunities and helping get through regulations

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Reducing taxes

Balancing budget; eliminating “out-of-control spending”

Eliminating harmful regulation

Boost manufacturing, wages, and jobs through more exports

Encouraging both small and large business

Roll back regulations around small businesses so they can have more flexibility and certainty and time to work on their business

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Economy

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Grew up on family farm

Attended college despite financial difficulties (took on many part time jobs simultaneously)

Widowed young with 2 kids; later remarried and now has 4 kids

Worked as an urban planner and worked in Iowa real estate and development

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Grew up on family farm

Worked hard to pay for college

Served in the military for over 23 years, spanning from platoon leader to battalion commander

Elected for senator in 2014

Worked as Montgomery County Auditor

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10.20
There’s a 58% chance that Greenfield wins.

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Sunday November 1: Real Clear Politics:

As of 10/18-10/30 there was an average lead of .5 for Ernst

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Tuesday October 27:

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10.21

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10.16: 47 to 53 in 538 model; 48.4% to 49.0% popular vote margin; Greenfield’s favor

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Polling data leading into the general election-

(See posts below)

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Works cited:

Part 1.)

Ernst page: “Issues.” Issues - Senator Joni Ernst, 2020, www.ernst.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/key-issues.

Greenfield page: “Join Theresa's Senate Campaign.” Theresa Greenfield, 2020, greenfieldforiowa.com/.

Iowa voting history: “Iowa Presidential Election Voting History.” 270toWin.Com, 2018, www.270towin.com/states/Iowa.

Population of Iowa https://www.google.com/search?q=population+of+Iowa&oq=population+of+Iowa&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i433i457j0i433j0l3j0i433l2.3062j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Part 2.)

“ABOUT POET.” POET, poet.com/about.

“About Theresa.” Theresa Greenfield, greenfieldforiowa.com/about/.

“About Us.” Votesane, 13 Nov. 2014, votesane.com/about-us.

“Berkshire Hathaway.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 3 Nov. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkshire_Hathaway.

“Duty Free Americas.” Duty Free Americas - Shop in Stores, Airports and Online, www.dutyfreeamericas.com/corporate/about-us/.

“Iowa Senate 2020 Race.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2020&id=IAS2&spec=N.

“Issues.” Joni for Iowa, 27 Sept. 2019, joniernst.com/issues/.

“Issues.” Issues - Senator Joni Ernst, www.ernst.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/key-issues.

“Joni Ernst, Official Portrait, 116th Congress.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Joni_Ernst,_official_portrait,_116th_Congress_2.jpg .

“Meet Joni.” Meet Joni - Senator Joni Ernst, www.ernst.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/meet-joni.

“Sen. Joni Ernst - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/joni-ernst/summary?cid=N00035483.

“Theresa Greenfield.” Des Moines Register, US Today, www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/c0516a2d8555cf19e02336a2491e5a0223bf26bd/c=24-0-306-376/local/-/media/2017/06/30/IAGroup/DesMoines/636344217726349782-Theresa-Greenfield-headshot.png?width=282&height=376&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp.

“Theresa on the Issues.” Theresa Greenfield, greenfieldforiowa.com/issues/.

“Who We Are.” McAninch Corporation - Des Moines Iowa Earthmoving Contractor | McAninch Corporation, www.mcaninchcorp.com/about/who-we-are/.

Part 3.)

“Awkward Debate Moment for Joni Ernst in the Midst of Tight Race.” CNN, Cable News Network, 19 Oct. 2020, www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/19/joni-ernst-iowa-senate-race-zeleny-dnt-lead-vpx.cnn.

“Election 2020 - Iowa Senate - Ernst vs. Greenfield.” RealClearPolitics, Real Clear Holdings LLC, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_greenfield-7072.html.

Garber, Jonathan. “Coastal Donors Pouring Cash into Tight Iowa Senate Race.” Fox News, FOX News Network, 30 Oct. 2020, www.foxnews.com/politics/iowa-senate-race-costal-elites-influence.

Hooper, Kelly. “Poll: Trump, Ernst Lead in Iowa.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 1 Nov. 2020, www.politico.com/news/2020/10/31/iowa-poll-senate-presidential-election-433762.

“2020 Senate Election Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, ABC News Internet Ventures, 13 Oct. 2020, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/iowa/.

Zeleny, Jeff. “Trump's Troubles Weighing on Iowa Senate Race as Joni Ernst Fights for Reelection.” CNN, Cable News Network, 12 Oct. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/politics/iowa-senate-race-joni-ernst/index.html.

Part 4.)

“Understanding the Election.” Associated Press, www.ap.org/media-center/understanding-the-election.

Broadwater, Luke. “Joni Ernst Wins in Iowa, Frustrating Democrats' Push for Senate Majority.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 4 Nov. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/politics/iowa-joni-ernst.html.

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The third section will be a work in progress leading up to election day:

How is this race being covered in the media? What are the big stories in this race?

CNN noted Joni Ernst’s statements about having a particularly “tough” election this year and cited Trump as the reason why. Four years ago it seemed as though Ernst was “insulated from the political headwinds” when Trump won Iowa by 9 percentage points. Now, Trump’s difficulty against Biden reflects Joni’s difficulty against Greenfield. CNN also interviewed a former Republican who’d voted for Trump four years ago. The citizen looked favorably upon Trump’s economic work prior to the Pandemic but is “disgusted with him now”. (Zeleny, Jeff. “Trump's Troubles Weighing on Iowa Senate Race as Joni Ernst Fights for Reelection.” CNN, Cable News Network, 12 Oct. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/10/12/politics/iowa-senate-race-joni-ernst/index.html.)

CNN pointed to Ernst’s recent political gaffe on corn prices in Iowa as a factor that may harm her campaign. When asked a critical agricultural question about the breakeven price of soy-beans in Iowa, Ernst’s answer was off by 5 dollars. This was particularly striking given the fact that Iowa is in the middle of its harvest. Her farming experience was a major foundation of her initial, 2014 campaign. This gaffe makes her seem out of touch. On a more neutral note, CNN pointed out a simple difference in what the two candidates believe is the most pressing, current issue in the suburbs. Ernst cited law and order while Greenfield cited healthcare. (“Awkward Debate Moment for Joni Ernst in the Midst of Tight Race.” CNN, Cable News Network, 19 Oct. 2020, www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/19/joni-ernst-iowa-senate-race-zeleny-dnt-lead-vpx.cnn.)

Sunday November 1: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/31/iowa-poll-senate-presidential-election-433762
The author states that suddenly as of Oct. 31, Trump took the lead of 7 percentage points in Iowa. Ernst, for the first time in this election, took the lead ahead of Greenfield with a 4 percentage point lead. The author’s source noted that Trump won over independents while Biden lost women voters.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/iowa-senate-race-costal-elites-influence
This author states that Theresa Greenfield holds a 1.5 percent lead. He notes that a major point of Ernst’s campaign lies upon her campaign promises to be hard on the pigs in Washington: an area that Greenfield has been working to undermine. Greenfield argues that Ernst sold out Iowans and is soft on the Coronavirus. Ernst argues to the contrary; she states that she’s been hard at work to protect Iowans, especially those with preexisting conditions.

What did these sources indicate were the key issues?  Why?-

10.19: In recent weeks Iowa has been very focused on social issues, particularly police brutality.(https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2020/10/19/how-iowa-republicans-democrats-found-common-ground-po). The Des Moines Register reports that Iowa had Democrats and Republicans compromise towards legislation against recent police actions. 17 days after George Floyds death, on June 11th Iowa’s Republican legislature had passed a bill to fight police misconduct. Before the new bills passed, Democrats urged specific reasons for bringing change to Iowa's current laws impacting law enforcement since June 4th due to race conflicts.

(https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/2020-election-news-tariffs-and-flooding-make-iowa-key-swing-state.html)

In this CNBC Article, they mention how agriculture will be a primary issue for Iowa/Western voters in election. This is due to the fact that Trump's big trade war with China has led to a steep drop off in prices for farmers that has only hurt them. A significant amount of people in the agricultural industry have expressed their displeasure. Lindsey Greiner, the President Of The Iowa Soybean Association states; “there's really been a lack of any good news.” Greiner's Organization pushes for soybean farmers within the state. Unfortunately, conflicts between the U.S. and Canada and the U.S. and Mexico have hurt Iowan exports. Iowan farmers are hopeful to see a United States Mexico agreement, which can help sustain reliability amongst the transportation of exports from Iowa to both Mexico and Canada. Iowa had delivered thirty percent of its exports (4.2 billion) to Canada in 2018. 2.3 billion of the exported goods went to Mexico in 2018, according to the U.S Trade Representative (CNBC).

(https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/03/politics/iowa-caucuses-entrance-polls/index.html) CNN highlighted recent surveys and polls conducted with Democratic caucus goers in Iowa surrounding key issues. Just before the Caucuses in Iowa, a CNN poll found that healthcare was the biggest issue with Democratic voters. In this entrance poll leading up to the caucus, two out of every five people said healthcare was the biggest issue in determining who they vote for/support, while one in five said climate change. Out of the total 1,664 respondents, 42% said healthcare was the biggest issue when given the choice of healthcare, income inequality, foreign policy, and climate change. Climate change was second, leading at 21%. Although small sample sizes, the analysis of these Democratic caucosgoers goes further into depth when mentioning the ratio of people that support public healthcare, and those in support of removing private health insurance as an option. This allows the reader to get a small sampling of what Democratic voters in Iowa are learning towards in regards to voting candidates, general and presidential election, and key issues within the states on a federal and state level.

Who do you think will win and why?:

Write out an argument paragraph explaining your choice and your reasoning- Based on the polling data and news articles we observed over the last few weeks, we’ve determined that it is impossible to know who will win the Iowa Senate race. Since the beginning of our research, we knew that the election was to be a tossup; all of our polling data and every article we viewed said so. However, it first appeared as though Theresa Greenfield had the slight advantage for two reasons. One, we had researched Democrat-aligned sources first, so the information was skewed to make it seem as though Greenfield was the better candidate. Two, many sources had given Greenfield a lead of around 4.8 percent from October 16th to October 21st. But, things began to shift around October 27th, when her lead dropped to 1.8 percent. As of October 31st, Joni Ernst has taken a .5 percent lead. The polling has been too inconsistent for even partisan news outlets to determine who will win. Therefore, it is an absolute tossup.

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Demographic information of the state:

Total population-  Pop. of Iowa = 3.155 million (2019)

Break this total population section down into 4-5 demographic categories (choose categories that make sense to your election)- Demographics (based on key issues for Iowans):
-Veterans: (many veterans)
-Education: (many invested in education)
-Agriculture: (many agricultural workers)
-Healthcare: (many invested in healthcare)
-Economy: (many invested in the economy)

Political Representation in the state:

History of how the state has voted in the last 8 years in major elections and what conclusions can be drawn from this?  Be sure to note the political party of the winner-

Presidential- Presidential voting history over the last 8 cycles: (a battleground every year)
1988- Democrat
1992- Democrat
1996- Democrat
2000- Democrat
2004- Republican
2008- Democrat

Last 8 years...

2012- Democrat (Obama wins by 5.8%)
2016- Republican (Trump wins by nearly 9.5%)

Presidential conclusion: The state slid toward the right as of 2004, rendering it more of an even split. In 2016 it became very Republican (with Trump winning by nearly 9.5% points) and now it has swung back towards the middle. I believe that the candidate, rather than the party, is certainly what influences Iowan voters the most given that they voted Obama twice, then totally bailed on Hilary and have now moved towards the middle.

Senate- Senate voting history in the last 8 years:
2014 = Republican (Ernst) 52.1% of the vote (democratic candidate Bruce Braley had only 43.7% by comparison)

Senate conclusion: While Ernst won by such a great majority in 2014 she still struggles now because Iowa is a swing-state.