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post #5 (oct 11th) Growth and liberalism.

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post #5 (oct 11th) Growth and liberalism.

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The article, “The Formula for a Richer World? Equality, Liberty, Justice” states that two hundred years ago 95% of the world was poor. Now, it’s about one billion of the 7 billion people on the planet. This is referred to as "The Great Enrichment” and it works because of Adam Smith’s plan of “equality, liberty and justice” and the free market. This article makes me think of Modernization Theory which emphasizes the importance of going through five stages. This theory is rooted in the Western view of economics, such as Adam’s, suggests there is only one path to growth. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/upshot/the-formula-for-a-richer-world-equality-liberty-justice.html

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More small and medium-sized businesses are pessimistic about the future than positive for the first time in four years, according to an industry body.

Small business' concerns are growing that the domestic economy will weaken.

The first survey by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) since the Brexit vote suggests the second largest fall in confidence in the index's history.

It is the third quarter in a row that confidence has fallen.

"The political shock of the Brexit result has taken place at a time of weakening business confidence," said FSB national chairman Mike Cherry.

The FSB surveyed 1,035 small firms between July and August.

The results suggested business confidence fell into negative territory for the first time since 2012, with pessimistic business owners outnumbering confident ones.

Wake-up call

Wilson Boardman of Micromix Plant Health in Nottingham told the BBC he was positive about the future: "We will get out from under the regulatory heel of Brussels. I'm not worried we're not going to be part of the single market. We should have a deal like South Korea they don't have to take any migrants from the EU."

But Glyn Shemwell, who runs cleaning business We Clean Any House in Southend, said Brexit was already having a direct and negative impact on his business: "The main concern for us is certainly Brexit. We reply a lot on migrant workers although we don't actively recruit. They're concerned now as they don't know if they'll be allowed to work here."

The FSB said there were "many positive signs" of small businesses proving resilient, in spite of a fragile economic outlook in the longer term because of Brexit political uncertainty.

The number of small companies aspiring to grow over the year climbed to 55%, the highest level since the end of 2015.

Meanwhile, the number of firms expecting to downsize, close or hand on the business fell to 11%.

"Small firms are resilient and will survive the current fragile economic outlook, but to avoid an economic slowdown this data should be a wake-up call for our elected politicians," said Mr Cherry.

He added: "We look to the party conferences and upcoming Autumn Statement to green-light infrastructure projects at local and national level, to simplify the tax system and to help reduce the costs of doing business."

Last month, a survey by the CBI business lobby group said that small and medium-sized manufacturers fear they will be hit by a fall in orders in the next quarter.

It indicated that business optimism had fallen at its fastest rate since January 2009, driven by the uncertainty following June's Brexit vote.

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More small and medium-sized businesses are pessimistic about the future than positive for the first time in four years, according to an industry body. Small business' concerns are growing that the domestic economy will weaken. The first survey by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) since the Brexit vote suggests the second largest fall in confidence in the index's history.

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post #4 (oct 5th) Immigrants and U.S jobs.

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post #4 (oct 5th) Immigrants and U.S jobs.

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The article "Immigrants Aren’t Taking Americans’ Jobs, New Study Finds" explains that many U.S citizens believe that immigrants cause negative economic growth. However, 14 economists overwhelmingly found that immigrants do not harm U.S jobs and can create jobs. The question of whether immigration hurts or harms jobs would be answered by philosopher and economist Adam Smith by saying that the market can run itself therefore; any effect that takes place due to immigrants would be another way that the invisible hand guides the market. As long as there is no state intervention, immigrants are free to come and go.http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/22/us/immigrants-arent-taking-americans-jobs-new-study-finds.html?_r=1

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Do immigrants take jobs from Americans and lower their wages by working for less?

The answer, according to a report published on Wednesday by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, is no, immigrants do not take American jobs - but with some caveats.

The question is at the heart of the furious debate over immigration that has divided the country and polarized the presidential race. Many American workers, struggling to recover from the recession, have said they feel squeezed out by immigrants.

Donald J. Trump, the Republican nominee, has called for a crackdown on illegal immigrants, saying they "compete directly against vulnerable American workers." He promises to cut back legal immigration with new controls he says would "boost wages and ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first."

Hillary Clinton, his Democratic rival, takes an upbeat view, saying immigrants contribute to the economy whether they are here legally or not, by providing labor for American employers and opening businesses that create jobs for Americans rather than taking them.

The report assembles research from 14 leading economists, demographers and other scholars, including some, like Marta Tienda of Princeton, who write favorably about the impacts of immigration and others who are skeptical of its benefits, like George J. Borjas, a Harvard economist. Here's what the report says:

* "We found little to no negative effects on overall wages and employment of native-born workers in the longer term," said Francine D. Blau, an economics professor at Cornell University who led the group that produced the 550-page report.

* Some immigrants who arrived in earlier generations, but were still in the same low-wage labor markets as foreigners just coming to the country, earned less and had more trouble finding jobs because of the competition with newer arrivals.

* Teenagers who did not finish high school also saw their hours of work reduced by immigrants, although not their ability to find jobs. Professor Blau said economists had found many reasons that young people who drop out of high school struggle to find work. "There is no indication immigration is the major factor," she said.

* High-skilled immigrants, especially in technology and science, who have come in larger numbers in recent years, had a significant "positive impact" on Americans with skills, and also on working-class Americans. They spurred innovation, helping to create jobs.

"The prospects for long-run economic growth in the United States would be considerably dimmed without the contributions of high-skilled immigrants," the report said. It did not focus on American technology workers, many of whom have been displaced from their jobs in recent years by immigrants on temporary visas.

The report asked another question Americans are debating: Do immigrants burden government budgets?

That answer is "more mixed," Professor Blau said.

* The first generation of newcomers generally cost governments more than they contribute in taxes, with most of the costs falling on state and local governments, mainly because of the expense of educating the children of immigrant families.

For those governments, total annual costs for first-generation immigrants are about $57 billion. But by the second generation in those families, immigrants, with improved education and taxpaying ability, become a benefit to government coffers, adding about $30 billion a year. By the third generation, immigrant families contribute about $223 billion a year to government finances.

* In the last two decades, the number of immigrants in the country increased 70 percent to about 43 million people; they are now 13 percent of the population. One in every four Americans is either an immigrant or the child of one. And since 2001, about one million immigrants have come legally to the United States each year.

The report called immigration "integral to the nation's economic growth" because immigrants bring new ideas and add to an American labor force that would be shrinking without them, helping ensure continued growth into the future.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A16 of the New York edition with the headline: Americans Aren't Being Squeezed Out of Jobs by Immigrants, Report Finds. Order Reprints | Today's Paper | Subscribe

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Immigrants Aren't Taking Americans' Jobs, New Study Finds

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Do immigrants take jobs from Americans and lower their wages by working for less? The answer, according to a report published on Wednesday by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, is no, immigrants do not take American jobs - but with some caveats.

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post #3 (sept 31st) Refugee Crisis in Ethiopia.

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post #3 (sept 31st) Refugee Crisis in Ethiopia.

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The article “Refugee crisis: Plan to create 100,000 jobs in Ethiopia” discusses the ongoing problem of how to help 700,000 refugees who seek asylum in Ethiopia. The plan includes building two industrial parks. The European Investment Bank is providing loans and grants provided from the UK & World Bank. What these “industrial parks” entail is not stated. Andre Gunder Frank would advise Ethiopia to be weary of this help because underdeveloped countries are caused by developed countries. There may be short term gains, but long term consequences. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37433085

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Britain, the European Union and the World Bank have announced a plan to create 100,000 jobs in Ethiopia to help tackle the migrant crisis.

Two industrial parks will be built in the country at a cost of $500m (£385m).

Ethiopia, which proposed the plan, will be required to grant employment rights to 30,000 refugees.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May said the project would be a model for how to support poorer countries housing large numbers of migrants.

Ethiopia hosts more than 700,000 asylum seekers, mainly from South Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.
South Sudan refugees reach one million mark
The deal, which was announced on Wednesday at the UN summit on refugees in New York, will be funded by loans from the European Investment Bank (EIB) and grants from the UK and the World Bank.

As part of the agreement Ethiopia will grant refugees employment rights, which many currently do not have.

A number of the new positions will be reserved for Ethiopia's growing number of young jobseekers.

Mrs May said the project would be a model for how to support poorer countries shouldering the burden of refugees.

President of the European Investment Bank Werner Hoyer said Ethiopia is a stopping point for many of those making their way to Europe.

"Initiatives and projects like this provide people with a choice to stay closer to home and an opportunity for economic growth as well," he said.

Ethiopia currently hosts the largest number of refugees on the African continent. They are mainly from South Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia and many of them try to make the journey into North Africa and across the Mediterranean to Europe.

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Britain, the European Union and the World Bank have announced a plan to create 100,000 jobs in Ethiopia to help tackle the migrant crisis. Two industrial parks will be built in the country at a cost of $500m (£385m). Ethiopia, which proposed the plan, will be required to grant employment rights to 30,000 refugees.

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In the article, “What next for US-Cuba relations?” author Will Grant explains that the there has been a reopening of the US embassy in Cuba, and direct flights will now take place between the US and Cuba. This article makes me believe that Cuba will most likely have many Foreign Direct Investments in the near future. This could cause businesses currently operating there such as hotels and restaurants to close down as bigger names come in. It could also "Americanize" Cuba and cause the country to lose many of its traditions as companies like McDonald's and Starbucks take over. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37059700

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A year has passed since one of the most symbolic moments in the long and tangled history between the United States and Cuba: the official reopening of the long-shuttered US embassy in Havana.

On a stiflingly hot August morning, the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, presided over the flag-raising ceremony and the speeches laden with pomp, emotion and bold statements of intent to move on from the hostilities of the past.

Since that day, a lot has happened between the former Cold War foes. Direct flights are due to begin this month, travel restrictions have been eased for US citizens and bilateral cooperation increased in science and the arts.

Plus of course, there was a historic visit by President Obama.

"I have come here to extend the hand of friendship to the Cuban people," he told the nation in a televised address.

But while many Cubans would happily accept another four years of Mr Obama, a new administration in Washington is coming. And the outcome could have a significant impact on the new spirit of cordiality between the two countries.

"Obviously the big problem in US-Cuban relations is the embargo. That is the elephant in the room," says Carlos Azugaray, a former Cuban diplomat.

He says the key to the next phase of United States' normalisation with Cuba has to be the lifting of the decades-long economic embargo on the island: "The elephant has already started to leave the room, you already have the trunk out!

"We can see that with the recent opening of a Sheraton hotel in Havana, with the decision that some US credit cards can be used in Cuba, that travel restrictions have been eased."

If the Democratic Party regains control of Congress, he argues, they are "bound to do something about the embargo".

But most attention is on the race for the White House. So how would a Clinton or a Trump presidency affect the rapprochement with Cuba?

"I understand the scepticism in this community about any policy of engagement towards Cuba," Hillary Clinton recently told an audience in Miami.

"I've been sceptical too. But we can't wait any longer for a failed policy to bear fruit. We have to seize this moment."

The embargo on Cuba is obsolete she told them and needs to go "once and for all".

Whereas previously those sentiments might have spelt the end of a presidential candidate's hopes in Florida, in this election they were greeted with applause - admittedly among a select audience - in Miami.

However in Cuba, where people have long called for the embargo to be lifted and where the benefits of such a change in policy would actually be felt, many ordinary Cubans don't entirely trust Mrs Clinton.

Cubans remember how she supported her husband's decision to tighten restrictions on the island in 1996, including signing a measure that meant lifting the embargo must be approved by the US Congress.

Carlos Azugaray estimates that the "votes may be there" in the US House of Representatives to approve lifting the decades-long sanctions. But unless she can secure them, Hillary Clinton probably can't expect to receive the same warmth in Cuba that Barack Obama has enjoyed.

As for Mr Trump, his foreign policy position on the question of Cuba isn't entirely clear yet. However it may come as little surprise that he differs from many in his party on the issue.

In a televised debate on CNN earlier this year, he did say he was "somewhere in the middle" between President Obama's policy of engagement and Senator Marco Rubio's outright opposition to talking to the Castro government: "I don't agree with President Obama," he said, "but I do agree that something should take place. After 50 years, it's enough time folks!"

Pushed on whether that would mean he'd row back Mr Obama's policies, and even close the US embassy in Havana, or continue towards further rapprochement, Donald Trump opted for the former: "I would probably have the embassy closed until such time as a really good deal was made and struck by the United States," he said.

The first people affected by such a radical step would be the diplomats in Havana themselves.

The candidates' positions on Cuba

Hillary Clinton:

Told an audience in Miami: "The Cuba embargo needs to go, once and for all."

She's claimed she urged President Obama towards normalisation with Cuba while secretary of state.

But Cubans have lingering doubts - and remember how she supported her husband's decision to sign the Helms-Burton Act in 1996, which tightened restrictions on Cuba.

Donald Trump:

He said "the concept of opening with Cuba is fine" in a recent interview with The Daily Caller.

But added that the US "should have made a better deal" and claimed - during a debate on CNN - he would close the US embassy in Havana "until such time as a really good deal could be struck".

He has also written in favour of the trade embargo in the past.

The US Charge d'Affaires in Cuba is Jeffrey de Laurentis. I asked him about the potential consequences of the US presidential election on the relationship with Cuba, during an interview at the end of last year.

He said: "My wish is that when the campaign is over and the election is over and whoever is elected president is in the White House, he or she will recognise the value of the direction we've taken and wish to continue it."

For the time being the Cuban diplomats are staying similarly tight-lipped. Josefina Vidal heads the US affairs department at the Cuban Foreign Ministry.

"We expect that whomever is the next president of the United States will take into consideration what the majority of the American public and the majority of the Cuban-American population in the US thinks about this," she told the BBC, adding that the polls show they are in favour of the normalisation of relations.

Former diplomat, Carlos Azugaray, can speak a little more freely about the prospect of a billionaire conservative businessman as the next president. He sees two key problems with Mr Trump from a Cuban perspective: "Unpredictability: we cannot say that what he says is what he thinks. And the other thing is how far he will want to take his independence from the leadership of the Republican Party."

Ironically, as Cuba is gearing up for a record year in tourism, there is an argument that says the island's economy might benefit from having a hotel man in the White House.

He could well put the politics aside in favour of the economy, says Mr Azugaray.

"After all, the business of the United States is business!" he laughs.

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A year has passed since one of the most symbolic moments in the long and tangled history between the United States and Cuba: the official reopening of the long-shuttered US embassy in Havana.

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post #2 (sept 17th) India's slowing economy.

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post #2 (sept 17th) India's slowing economy.

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The article “India’s economic growth rate slowest for two years,” describes how the government has a target growth rate of 8%, and it has currently dropped to 7,1% from 7.9% last quarter. Private spending is currently low while the government drives what spending. Related to Globalization and Development, the slowing of India’s economy would cause business owners to sell products for cheaper and cheaper. This creates a domino effect whereby incomes go down, and everyone spends less as a result. An economist would advise India to welcome Foreign Direct Investments which would help growth by bringing job and creating spillovers.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37231394

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India's economy grew at its slowest pace for two years in the April to June quarter, according to official figures.

The growth rate slowed to an annual rate of 7.1%, compared with 7.9% in the previous quarter.

It is the slowest growth since the April to June quarter in 2014, when the rate was 6.7%.

Analyst Abhishek Upadhyay of ICICI Securities said growth "continues to be driven by government spending while private spending remains muted".

The sharp slowdown in growth could make it more difficult for the government's to reach its target of 8% in the year, although the country retained its claim to be the fastest-growing large economy, ahead of China.

Growth was dragged down in the quarter by a contraction in mining and a sluggish agricultural sector.

Reform push

"This number is much, much below the market expectation," said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research.

Growth needs to be towards double digits to create the jobs that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised to the millions of Indians joining the workforce each year.

Mr Modi has sought to get growth moving by implementing reforms and boosting government spending to offset a lack of private sector investment.

In the summer quarter, the monsoon season should provide some support to growth.

Normal rainfall this summer after two seasons of drought could lift rural consumption by $80bn in the year to the end of March 2017, according to Citibank estimates.

A wage rise for nearly 10 million federal government employees and pensioners could also help fuel spending.

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India's economy grew at its slowest pace for two years in the April to June quarter, according to official figures. The growth rate slowed to an annual rate of 7.1%, compared with 7.9% in the previous quarter. It is the slowest growth since the April to June quarter in 2014, when the rate was 6.7%.