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Danish Companies Seek to Hire, but Everyone’s Already Working

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Danish Companies Seek to Hire, but Everyone’s Already Working

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"As Europe rebounds from its economic malaise, Denmark is one of a few countries that can boast of nearing a golden era of full employment, meaning almost everyone who is able and willing to work has a job. But instead of being cheered, it is posing new challenges to the country’s recovery."
This article touches upon the new issue of labor shortage in places with incredibly high employment. In Denmark, companies are struggling to grow without the ability to hire new employees locally. New laws are being put in place to prevent bidding wars for employees and high inflation. The article gives specific examples of Danish companies that are facing new issues because of the labor shortage in the company. They give various examples of solutions that companies are using to compensate for the supply shortage.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/28/business/economy/denmark-jobs-full-employment.html?_r=0

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Danish Companies Seek to Hire, but Everyone’s Already Working

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Danish Companies Seek to Hire, but Everyone’s Already Working

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Trump Pinning Hopes on Economic Growth to Avoid Budget Cuts

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Trump Pinning Hopes on Economic Growth to Avoid Budget Cuts

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"Few if any economists foresee the burst of growth Mr. Trump is counting on. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the real gross domestic product will grow at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent through the end of 2018 rather than Trump's aim for an average annual rate of 3."

President Trump suggested on Tuesday that “a revved-up economy” could generate enough additional tax revenue to pay for his proposed $54 billion, relieving pressure on him to cut Social Security.  Although President Trump believes solely that a surge in economic growth would do the trick, The White House has suggested that extra money for the Defense Department could be cut elsewhere, possibly targeting the State Department, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Internal Revenue Service. Despite the hopes of President Trump, he appear at odds with the lower growth forecast by his own economic team and the forecasts of most economists. President Trump faces significant obstacles when it comes to turning his budget blueprint into reality. He faces much scrutiny by many House Republicans on budget control as well as will need to get Congress to lift the military spending caps mandated by the 2011 Budget Control Act, and he will have to convince Democrats and members of his own party that his priorities make economic sense.  This corresponds to economic growth because many people are concerned about Mr. Trump’s plans to increase spending on military and other programs while taking entitlement cuts off the table. (ERIC D'ADDARIO)

Read more at: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/28/us/politics/us-budget-trump.html

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Jacob Lubell- 35 years of data reveal economic inequality in the United States

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Jacob Lubell- 35 years of data reveal economic inequality in the United States

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"Q. What is driving the growth in economic inequality? A.globalization has pushed well-paid manufacturing jobs overseas. There is some truth to that, and we have certainly seen a drastic decrease in manufacturing jobs."

This article is formatted as an interview conducted by UVA today (University of Virginia) with their economics professor James Harrigan. The interview was run through a series of questions (ie. How has economic inequality in the United States changed since 1980?, What does the top 1 percent look like in the U.S, What is driving the growth in economic inequality, How do you account for the growth of the 1 percent, Are there things that can be done in the policy arena to slow or reverse the growth of inequality, and How does economic inequality in the U.S. compare to global trends?). His answers are supported by 35 years of data. These topics have direct relevance with the topic of Economic growth because it talks about a key factor in the process of fiscal progression, economic inequality. A detailed explination on our nations great economic divide is discussed thoroughly by Mr. Harrigan in this article.

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-02-years-reveal-economic-inequality-states.html#jCp"

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U.S. GDP Advanced 1.9% in Final Quarter of 2016

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U.S. GDP Advanced 1.9% in Final Quarter of 2016

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Monthly US home-price gains reach a 2½-year high

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Monthly US home-price gains reach a 2½-year high

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"The index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, found that home prices rose 5.8 percent year over year, up from November's 5.6 percent annual gain. The December rise was the highest annual increase since June 2014, when it rose 6.3 percent vs. to June 2013....

The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city composite index, which tracks the nation's largest cities, gained 5.6 percent year over year, up from 5.2 percent the previous month. Seattle, Portland, Oregon, and Denver once again topped the charts with the largest year-over-year gains. Seattle continued to lead the pack, rising at an annualized rate of 10.8 percent.

Of the nation's 20 largest cities, seven reached their all-time highs in December: Seattle, Portland, Denver, Boston, Charlotte, North Carolina, San Francisco and Dallas."

This price growth shows the healthy pace for home sales, which increased in December and January to the fastest level in a decade. More consistent job gains and Increasing consumer confidence have encouraged many people to risk looking for a home. Also, with a low availability for properties in the US, especially in major cities, buyers bid against one another which has caused the growth of US home-prices. Home prices continue to increase, with the national average growing faster than at any time in the last two and a half year. Seattle, Portland, Oregon, and Denver are at the top of the chart with an annualized rate of home pricing increasing 10.8%. Many people have been concerned in fear that this growth will cause an increase in the US inflation. David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, has said the rate of increase will not affect the inflation. Low availability for homes has caused the growth in home pricing.

Andrew Badeski

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/28/us-home-prices-rise-56-in-december-sp-corelogic-case-shiller.html

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China eyes global economic leadership as U.S. turns inward (USA Today)

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China eyes global economic leadership as U.S. turns inward (USA Today)

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"Trump’s pivot to economic nationalism and hostility toward multilateral trade deals create an opportunity for China — second only to the USA in economic output — to shine even brighter on the world stage, said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics" (Roger Yu, USA Today).

Roger Yu opens his article by stating that Kenya will be building a 300-mile railway that will connect its capital to one of the largest port cities in all of Africa, thanks to funds and organization from China. Just as the US seemingly withdraws from the world stage with new notions of isolationism (far more extreme than a more 'reasonable' step towards inward development), China seems to be filling the gap with goals of becoming the new world economic power and benefitting most from increased globalization. With over a 50% increase in foreign investment spending in the last year, China has begun to fund numerous infrastructure projects in developing countries
on several continents, setting themselves up to be an important trading partner and influential political force across the globe. In effect, China has and will likely continue to fill the soon-to-be-widening void in the global loanable funds market, left by the US, thus increasing their influence around the world and greatly impacting the US economy. (Drew Weisberg)
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/03/01/china-expands-global-economic-reach-us-turns-inward/98466530/

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What Booming Markets Are Telling Us About the Global Economy

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What Booming Markets Are Telling Us About the Global Economy

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"Much of the buoyant optimism on Wall Street is driven by investors’ expectations of corporate tax cuts and deregulation under the Trump administration. But there is also some real improvement in the economic data underneath the shifts, reflecting economic forces that have been underway for years. And this resetting of expectations is evident in market data beyond the always erratic stock market."

In this article from the New York Times, Neil Irwin asserts that although many people see Donald Trump as the sole reason for  recent economic growth, market powers have been at work for years in order to contributes to today's booming economy. In addition, Irwin also states that such economic growth could also lead to higher rates of inflation, possibly prompting the federal government to take action in raising interest rates.

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Australia downgrades economic growth forcast

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Australia downgrades economic growth forcast

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"Gross domestic product growth was forecast at 2 per cent this year, down from a previous estimate of 2.5 per cent. The report forecast a budget deficit of A$10bn in 2019-20, which is equivalent to 0.5 per cent of GDP."

The article summarized how the Australian government has had to decrease their original growth projections and that they are expecting to have larger budget deficits. They currently have a very good, AAA credit rating that they do not want to lose, but with the increasing budget deficit, it might be difficult to maintain that. After an election last summer, Australia now has a weakened coalition and it will not help the stability necessary to maintain their credit rating. GDP is also decreasing more than expected, which will add stress to the economy.

https://www.ft.com/content/40a809fc-c59f-11e6-8f29-9445cac8966f

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Trump Factor may slow down global economy

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Trump Factor may slow down global economy

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“But in 2016 the principal change was a surge in uncertainty about economic policy. According to the bank, that was responsible for 0.6 percentage points of the 0.8 percentage-point fall in trade growth between 2015 and 2016.”

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/world-bank-report-indicates-trump-factor-may-slow-global-economy-1.2984206

According to this article, Trump’s position as president has put a damper on the global economy, and there’s more to come. This stems from the political uncertainty that’s in the mind of every single person. With no one knowing what Trump’s policies will do and how it will affect the world’s economy, the global trade will decrease. In the past 30 years, a study between trade economic policy has showed that they are directly related. With uncertainty remaining high, global trade will be quiet. As a consequence of the explosion in recent trade,  a large number of global supply chains have been created.  These chains are seen as to improving business, making it more efficient and boosting productivity.

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The Future of the U.S. Economy Lies in Mexico

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The Future of the U.S. Economy Lies in Mexico

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"Why is Mexico providing such an important part of the U.S. economy's workforce-- both inside the U.S. and south of the border? Because it's one of the few countries in the world with the demographic and geographic profile to support the labor force needs of a country as large and dynamic as the U.S. It is 10th in the world in population and still has a growing prime-age workforce, and it's right next door to the U.S."

Connor Sen, Bloomberg View columnist and portfolio manager for New River Investments in Atlanta, explains how the outsourcing of labor to Mexico will lead to an increase of economic growth for America. According to Sen, the current American labor force is not big enough and is lacking enough prime-age workers for significant economic growth in the future. In order to increase GDP, American companies are looking across the border for additional labor. For example, Ford, an American car company, is struggling to find enough workers willing to work entry-level jobs in the United States. According to Sen, "[n]ine of the eleven new car factories built in North America since 2011 have been in Mexico". Although the cars produced in Mexican factories will not contribute to the American GDP, the sales associated with those cars can contribute to economic growth and a stronger economy in America. Sen argues that in order to maintain economic growth at a high rate, the U.S. economy is dependent on business conducted in Mexico.
(Kelsey McGinley)
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-09-26/the-future-of-the-u-s-economy-lies-in-mexico

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“If the projections turn out to be true, Ethiopia, hailed by pundits as an “African lion”, will surpass Kenya. Though the possible win would be by a small margin, Kenyans have echoed that Ethiopia is surely becoming a new superpower in the region.” (News Agency of Nigeria)

In 2016 Ethiopia’s GDP ($69.2 billion dollars) surpassed Kenya’s GDP ($69.1 billion dollars), after Ethiopia’s economy went through a period of dramatic growth. In 2000 Kenya’s GDP (14 billion U.S. dollars) was almost double that of Ethiopia’s (8 billion U.S. dollars), but Ethiopia’s recent double digit growth is causing it to become the leading economy in East Africa. Ethiopia has the second largest population on the African continent (population 100 million) and because of its large population it is drawing attention from other countries. This is the cause of Ethiopia’s fast paced growth. China has been putting a lot of resources and energy into Ethiopia; in 2013 trade between the two countries is over 2 billion U.S. dollars. Although China benefits more than Ethiopia in the trade, China is helping to modernize Ethiopia by putting in new roadways, railroads and telecommunication lines. Unfortunately for Ethiopia steady growth may not be attainable with the current political friction, droughts and constant need for emergency food aid. Even though Ethiopia has surpassed Kenya’s GDP, the GDP per capita is still far behind, once again falling at around 50 percent of Kenya’s. Although Ethiopia still faces many challenges,  World Bank and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) predict that the economy will continue to grow at an annual rate of 7 to 9 percent. (Josiah Tarrant)

http://www.nan.ng/news/ethiopia-set-surpass-kenyas-economy/

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"But in Asia’s export dynamos, trade is picking up steam. In January, Chinese exports rose year-on-year for the first time in ten months; South Korean shipments have increased for three months in a row. Surveys reveal strong export pipelines in Japan, Singapore and Taiwan. Healthy order books for Asia’s manufacturers normally bode well for global trade and indeed the global economy. It is too soon to declare a definitive upturn in global trade, but it looks like more than a blip."
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21717108-trade-figures-augur-well-global-economy-asias-exports-rebound

The Economist highlights the recent growth in Asia's economy due to their exports. Indonesia and Malaysia have benefitted from higher oil and metal prices. However, China has fallen slightly behind its neighbors because it is trying to make more complete products that are used domestically. Additionally, some of Asia's economy depends on consumer satisfaction with new technology. If Samsung and Apple have successful product launches this year Asia's market will have further growth. Even with Asia's market in a stronger position, if President Trump puts high taxes on imports it could still suffer a great deal. Therefore, while the visible growth in Asia bodes well for the future global economy, it does not make it a done deal. (Casey Donahue)

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“A jump in iron ore and coal prices late in 2016 has helped the economy spring back to life. Australia is posting record monthly trade surpluses and is on track to post its first current account surplus since 1975 in coming months, according to some economists.”

Australia had been expected to go into its first economic recession in 25 years due to a sluggish economy in the first three quarters of the year but has been able to rebound in the fourth quarter outpacing expectations. Australia’s economy heavily relies on trading natural resources like coal and iron which saw a surge in pricing due to increasing demand for chinese industry. This was also combined with an increase in consumer spending, increasing profits of private companies and large scale government investment. The Reserve Bank of Australia is singling that this fits with their optimistic outlook for the economy and that they are unlikely to lower interest rates further.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/03/28/australias-economy-avoids-recession.html

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Trump's goal of 3 percent economic growth is somewhat unrealistic, Cramer says

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Trump's goal of 3 percent economic growth is somewhat unrealistic, Cramer says

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By: Erik Berlin
"President Donald Trump's goal of 3 percent economic growth is somewhat unrealistic, CNBC's Jim Cramer said on Tuesday.

In an interview with Fox & Friends that aired Tuesday morning, Trump said part of the money for a proposed increase in military spending would come from a revved-up economy.

Wall Street will be listening for clues or details regarding the administration's plans on tax reform and deregulation, which could give the economy a boost."

With last year producing the worst economic growth (1.6%) the U.S. has seen since 2011, the U.S. was bound for intense policy changes. Changes such as foreign trade and tax cuts bring a lot of economic growth for the U.S. However, with heavy budget extensions for the military, this growth can also be put at risk. I believe that these plans are all in tact to maintain President Trump's goal of 4% growth this year, as there are numerous analysts and economists who run projections and proof read these plans. However, I think it is important to maintain priorities as a president which I believe makes it an extremely difficult job.

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GDPNow: Latest forecast: 1.8 percent — March 1, 2017

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GDPNow: Latest forecast: 1.8 percent — March 1, 2017

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"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.8 percent on March 1, down from 2.5 percent on February 27" (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta).

GDPNow is a GDP forecaster put forth by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Each day, GDP growth is calculated and estimated based on current economic growth, including real time information like Census Bureau statistical releases and retail sales. It is important to note
that the graph and numbers provided are on a relatively small scale compared to the size of the entire economy. For example, the graph shows a decreasing trend in the predicted GDP percentage growth, however the Y axis of the graph only ranges from 1.5%-3.5% and the X axis from 12/22/16 to 3/2/17 (a span of roughly 3 months). An essential takeaway from this report is that the GDP growth can change by the hour, day, week, or month, depending on recent document releases and current economic behavior.

(NICOLE WELCH)

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Provides a "nowcast" of the official GDP growth estimate prior to its first release.

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The Real Reasons Why Women Still Earn Way Less Than Men

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The Real Reasons Why Women Still Earn Way Less Than Men

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"The biggest reason for gender pay inequality has to do with participation. Wells Fargo found that 14% of the wage gap can be explained by the fact that women have less work experience. More specifically, men are able to gain more experience because once women reach their 30s, they are more likely to have young children and may choose to leave the workforce in order to deal with family obligations."

In this article, Brittany Jones-Cooper, a Yahoo! Finance contributor, says that because of our society's gender roles, women are still much more likely to stop working in order to take care of their family. Child care is too expensive and thus, women are being forced to give up their jobs in order to tend to their family. This leads to less work experience and because of that, less women are being hired for jobs. Women are still underrepresented in almost every field. However, even in some of the fields they are dominant in like nursing, they still earn $10,000 less. This is unacceptable.
(Remy Laifer)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-real-reasons-why-women-still-earn-way-less-than-men-192624737.html

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Why Japan’s Economy Posted Surprisingly Strong Growth

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Why Japan’s Economy Posted Surprisingly Strong Growth

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"Japanese gross domestic product increased by 2.2 percent in annualized terms in the three months through September, the Cabinet Office said in a preliminary estimate. That counts as rip-roaring growth in normally sluggish Japan. The country has averaged less than 1 percent over the last two decades. The growth rate more than doubled compared with the second quarter and was more than twice as high as the average forecast by economists."

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/business/japan-economy-growth-trade.html?_r=0

Jonathan Soble of the New York Times breaks down the causes and future implications for the strong acceleration of economic growth in Japan during the third quarter. The surprising growth can be attributed to a surge in exports contributing to the largest share of increased outputs and facilitated by a strong American economic quarter. While government spending loosened, reliance upon the central bank's laid-back monetary policy has lowered borrowing costs and failed to translate to domestic public investment. Yet, if Trump's promises to focus spending on US infrastructure are followed,  US economic growth will create higher demand for Japanese goods, causing the Japanese stock market to rise since Trump's presidency.  (RENEE WEISZ)

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Why deporting undocumented immigrants could slow US economy

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Why deporting undocumented immigrants could slow US economy

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"Undocumented workers account for roughly 18 percent of employment in agriculture, 13 percent in construction and 10 percent at restaurants, hotels and casinos, according to a study done last year by the National Bureau of Economic Research."

President Trump has claimed that his administration plans on deporting two to three million illegal immigrants. Trump believes this will bring the jobs back to Americans and spark our economy. Economists on the other hand believe differently. According to this article, many economists believe the deportation of millions of illegal immigrants is a blow to the American economy that we cannot take. Our economy is being depleted by an aging workforce, and we cannot afford to lose millions of young workers. Due to many more young Americans electing to pursue higher educational, illegal immigrants are making up a greater percentage of the young workforce. If every illegal immigrant America was to be deported, and our economy was at full employment, there would not be enough legal workers to fill the jobs lost. Contrary to popular belief, deporting millions of illegal immigrants will not help our economy in any way.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/01/why-deporting-undocumented-immigrants-could-slow-us-economy.html

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"Gross domestic product grew 1% in October through December compared with the previous quarter and rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the statistics office said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.9% expansion on the quarter and a 2.4% rise from a year earlier. GDP grew 3.3% for the full year 2016 compared to the previous year. ...... Sweden’s economy has been running on all cylinders, thanks in part to investments designed to address a housing shortage and care for a record number of immigrants from war-torn countries like Syria and Iraq, Bloomberg reported." (Financial Times)

Sweden's economy has experienced steady growth; exceeding expectations. One reason for this growth is due to the impact from the large number of immigrants that have recently been coming to the country. This large influx of immigrants has led to the economy been running at full force. In addition, a housing shortage as arisen from the large number of refugees. This has led to an increase in the availability of construction jobs and the amount of work that construction companies receive has also increased. This, along with the booming tech industry, with companies such as Skype, Spotify, and Minecraft, has led to an expanding economy.
I chose this article because I thought it was interesting to see economic growth in a country that is vastly different from the one that I live in. Sweden's policy on immigration is vastly different from that of the US, and it is very interesting to see how immigration is helping Sweden's economy. While the large number of immigrants has brought some issues with it, the economy is not one sector that seems to be experiencing problems as a result of immigration.

(Gabriel Holm)

https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/60600/sweden-s-strong-growth-gives-hope-to-central-bank

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Why Deporting Undocumented Immigrants Could Slow  US Economy

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Why Deporting Undocumented Immigrants Could Slow  US Economy

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"Economists note that immigrants, including those working in the country without permission, play a vital role in the U.S. economy, and not only because they fill many low-paying jobs that Americans won’t or can’t do. The United States, like Japan and Western Europe, is being hobbled economically by an aging and slower-growing workforce. Economic growth depends on a steadily growing supply of workers."

Donald Trump's presidency is still fresh in the minds of Americans. While some are thrilled, many are still, rightfully so, extremely upset and unsure of two main things: how he got elected in the first place, and how he plans on somehow managing to have a positive effect of the country over these next four years. One of the biggest issues that Trump and the nation wanted to address was the economy. The hallmark of his campaign was the proposition that we needed to regain "our" jobs by deporting these illegal aliens. While this idea enthralls many unemployed and uneducated, economists are saying, as stated in the quote above, that this plan could actually work against his ultimate goal of improving the national economy. These immigrants are doing the jobs that Americans are unwilling to do. Also, many of these jobs are extremely low paying and require certain physical standards that cannot be met by the aging US workforce. Indeed, the idea of deporting all undocumented could potentially be detrimental to the US economy.

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“The expansion of infrastructure spending, especially on road and rail projects, will help since transport costs are important with respect to goods manufacturers’ getting their input supplies at lower costs and being able to ship their outputs to markets, whether at home or abroad at lower costs,” he said.

Trump wants to invest 1 trillion into infrastructure to help Gdp in the short run, and to sow the seeds for a buoyant economy in the long run.  Trump wants to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. He wants to ramps up efforts to rebuild and revive America's highways, tunnels, and bridges. Trumps remarks helped send infrastructure stocks which include construction, engineering and materials names soaring in Wednesday’s trading session . His plan will try and help jobs and hopefully will help the manufacturing bases countrywide.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/03/01/will-trumps-infrastructure-plan-help-keep-manufacturing-growth-on-track.html

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Bank of Mexico Cuts 2017 Economic Growth Outlook on Uncertainty Over U.S.

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Bank of Mexico Cuts 2017 Economic Growth Outlook on Uncertainty Over U.S.

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"The Bank of Mexico on Wednesday lowered slightly its economic growth estimate for 2017, citing concerns that protectionist measures in the U.S. could have a negative impact on Mexican trade.  In its quarterly inflation report, the central bank said it expects gross domestic product to rise between 1.3% and 2.3% this year, down from its previous estimate of 1.5% to 2.5%. The economy grew 2.3% in 2016, with a 3.4% expansion in services compensating for flat industrial output."

The Mexican government is looking ahead to the remainder of 2017 to predict economic growth in their country. The Bank of Mexico expects to see a fall in their economy, including a decrease in GDP and rise in inflation. The claim of reasoning for this is due to the Mexican government's uncertainly and tentativeness toward the US's new administration.

Susie M.

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Bank of Mexico Cuts 2017 Economic Growth Outlook on Uncertainty Over U.S.

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The Bank of Mexico on Wednesday lowered slightly its economic growth estimate for 2017, citing concerns that protectionist measures in the U.S. could have a negative impact on Mexican trade.

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Key Inflation Gauge Closest to Fed’s 2% Target Since 2012

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Key Inflation Gauge Closest to Fed’s 2% Target Since 2012

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(Jesse Levinson)

“Now, higher energy prices are lifting broad price gauges across advanced economies and low unemployment in the U.S. is forcing employers to compete over a smaller pool of available workers, putting upward pressure on wages. Fed officials have said they expect continued firming in inflation over the coming months and years.”

As the United States’ inflation rate approaches 2 percent––the Federal Reserve’s annual target––the case has been made for the central bank to raise short-term interest rates as quickly as this month. Additionally, the personal-consumption price index (PCE) rose 0.4 percent in January––a 1.9 percent increase from 2016. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting is in approximately two weeks, and the odds of a price increase are estimated at 2-in-3, per CME Group. Still, a rate increase seems imminent with the country’s expected growing inflation over the coming months.

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Left Pretends Trump Inheriting Strong Obama Economy

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Left Pretends Trump Inheriting Strong Obama Economy

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"Donald Trump won by campaigning on making the election a referendum on President Obama’s failed economic policies....the Obama administration’s economic recovery was the worst since the Great Depression in the 1930s"   the average American family would have $17,000 more in annual income if 8 years of the Obama recovery had equaled the average recession recovery since WW2. Any attempt to say that Obama had left the nation better off after his presidency is a liberal bias. He could have left the economy on autopilot and it would have grown so much better. The Obama administration was shocked themselves at the very low unemployment rate. Maybe because more than half of that supposed decline during the Obama Administration was due to the roughly 7.5 million Americans who had given up looking for a job or dropped out of the labor force. Furthermore, the current level of part-time employment is at 18.3%, a higher percentage than at any time since the Great Depression.(FRIES)

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US GDP At 1.9% Growth In 4th Q 2016 - Will Trump Get It Up To 3%?

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US GDP At 1.9% Growth In 4th Q 2016 - Will Trump Get It Up To 3%?

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/02/28/us-gdp-at-1-9-growth-in-4th-q-2016-will-trump-get-it-up-to-3/#1e4bef176fbe

Quote:
"The gain in gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, was smaller than the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey for a 2.1 percent annualized rate. Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, rose 3 percent, more than projected, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday in Washington." (Worstall)

I think that it is very interesting how the expected GDP can be so different than the actual. This has to do with the fact that although economists can try to follow certain trends, they will never be certain as the economy is affected by so many factors. Worstall in this article describes the headline, about how Trump may or may not raise the GDP to 3%. He talks about how the answer is typically no, and this has to do with the demographics, age, and the build of the economy. These problems, he says, are somewhat solvable, but not easy. Worstall says that "we can only do it by being more economically efficient, which means less government, less regulation". This clearly is a more conservative view, but he says it is "worth trying anyway".

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"While Morocco takes pride in its pro-market, macroeconomic reforms, which spur competition and foreign direct investment, the economy’s progress as a whole - which still depends on agriculture - falls short of sizzling growth.

The kingdom's major infrastructure projects include modern highways, tourism, a growing manufacturing sector, a nascent aeronautics industry, a new port and free trade zone near the city of Tangier in the north, and a massive solar plant in the country's remote southern desert with a renewable electricity goal of 40 percent by 2020.

Such projects, however, are not generating enough employment in a country where - according to the World Bank - more than a fifth of young people are out of work.

This has created a two-speed Morocco.

The country's business community is gaining higher exports from the "new" industries [automobile, aeronautics, and electronics], while this year's poor harvest drags down total GDP growth below two percent in 2016."

The article detailed the macroeconomic situation in Morocco and how the economy has changed. The issue for the Moroccan government is that as they have been attempting to diversify their primary streams of income and national GDP, they have utterly abandoned their formerly prominent agricultural. This has put the Moroccan government in a difficult spot of having to try  and satisfy their ambitions for a balanced and well rounded economic system while still keep what they've got with their established agricultural industry. Unfortunately, at the moment they're trying to do both and neither is working. One of the primary factors for why the new measures have been falling short is because they haven't invested in education. The United Nations rank Morocco 126th out of 188 countries in terms of human development. Multiple economists believe that the only reliable way for Morocco to improve its economic standing is through developing its people. In essence, Morocco should invest more in education in order to improve its economic strength.

DANNY JERSEY

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While Morocco takes pride in its pro-market, macroeconomic reforms, which spur competition and foreign direct investment, the economy's progress as a whole - which still depends on agriculture - falls short of sizzling growth.

The kingdom's major infrastructure projects include modern highways, tourism, a growing manufacturing sector, a nascent aeronautics industry, a new port and free trade zone near the city of Tangier in the north, and a massive solar plant in the country's remote southern desert with a renewable electricity goal of 40 percent by 2020.

Such projects, however, are not generating enough employment in a country where - according to the World Bank - more than a fifth of young people are out of work.

This has created a two-speed Morocco.
READ MORE: Going green - Morocco bans use of plastic bags
The country's business community is gaining higher exports from the "new" industries [cars, aeronautics, and electronics], while this year's poor harvest drags down total GDP growth below two percent in 2016.

"Morocco's economic model, based on attracting foreign investment in carefully selected sectors and building major infrastructure projects, is not really sustainable in the long term," Riccardo Fabiani, a senior analyst of Eurasia, told Al Jazeera.

Corruption in Morocco remains widespread in both the public and business spheres, Fabiani said, leading the country to slide backwards in terms of high unemployment, poverty, illiteracy and stalling living standards.

"The mega projects are rarely supported by a buoyant, local business environment. Their impact is limited by these structural weaknesses," Fabiani added.

"In addition, in the past five years the government has reduced spending by cutting public sector jobs and subsidies. This has pushed many young Moroccans to look for precarious jobs in the informal sector, despite having university degrees."

To the detriment of Moroccans, improving access to health and education are considered low priority compared with the push to build mega projects, said Omar Hyani, a Rabat-based financial analyst and city councilor.
READ MORE: My Arab Spring - Clinging to hope in Morocco
In 2014, Morocco spent 5.9 percent of GDP on health, according to the World Health Organization. To compare, nearby Algeria spent 7.2 percent in the same year, while Tunisia spent 7 percent.

"While some of these [mega] projects have been genuine development accelerators, others are real money pits with no real contribution to the country," Hyani told Al Jazeera.

"I am thinking of the high-speed train project, which is eating up more than 25 billion dirhams ($2.5bn) for the construction of a high-speed line of 180km, which is already a few years delayed."

The government would have spurred more economic growth by investing in education, he said, noting that the United Nations ranks Morocco as 126th out of 188 countries in terms of human development.

"The budget for this project is equivalent to the construction of 25,000 schools or 25 academic health centres," Hyani added.

"One wonders seriously about the usefulness of some of these projects. We urgently need to conduct an overall assessment of the policy."

Morocco plans further investment into its strategy, with the help of foreign loans.
READ MORE: Morocco asks to rejoin the African Union after 32 years
In July, Industry Minister Moulay Hafid Elalamy presented the king with an ambitious investment plan for more than 30 projects to the tune of 7.5bn Moroccan dirhams ($768m), claiming it would "create the conditions for sustainable economic growth where private investment plays the leading role and the support of the state will be the accelerator".

However, there are fears that such measures fail to address social challenges.

Sarah Bentahar, 25, is a graduate from the Faculte de Science in Rabat with a degree in energy engineering. She said that infrastructure projects only exist to please foreign investors. She hasn't seen much impact in her life.
READ MORE: Morocco's colonial heritage in higher education
"We, in Morocco, are a market," she added. "The engineers in Morocco are very competent, of course, but it's not a question of competence. It's a question of politics."

There are also concerns that foreign companies are exploiting the wealth of human resources.

"If you want to work in the domain of renewable energy, you should work with private companies. But these private companies take advantages of interns - for example, [by offering] a six-month internship with no salary," said Said Chabe, a 21-year-old searching for a paid position in the environmental energy sector.

While the push for massive investment is supposed to create a more inclusive economy, many Moroccans feel left out and are apathetic in terms of trying to participate in the country's decision-making process.
Danielle Douglas also contributed to this report

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While Morocco takes pride in its pro-market, macroeconomic reforms, which spur competition and foreign direct investment, the economy's progress as a whole - which still depends on agriculture - falls short of sizzling growth.

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Poland’s Economic Growth to Accelerate in 2017

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Poland’s Economic Growth to Accelerate in 2017

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"'After years of disappointing global growth, we are encouraged to see stronger economic prospects on the horizon,' World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said. 'Now is the time to take advantage of this momentum and increase investments in infrastructure and people. This is vital to accelerating the sustainable and inclusive economic growth required to end extreme poverty.'"

This article is about Poland's predicted economic growth in 2017. The GlobalEconomic Prospects predict that Poland's economic growth will increase from 2.5 percent in 2016 to 3.1 percent in 2017. On top of that, it's also predicted to increase by 3.3 percent in 2018 and 3.4 in 2019. This improvement of economic growth in Poland is partially due to the global increase of economic growth of 2.3 percent in 2016 to 2.7 percent in 2017. These economic improvements are predicted to cause Poland's GDP to rise from 3.2 percent in 2016 to 3.4 percent in 2017 and 3.5 percent in 2018. (Alec O'Donnell)
(Real One)

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/01/10/polands-economic-growth-to-accelerate-in-2017

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U.S. economy slowed in fourth quarter despite robust consumer spending

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U.S. economy slowed in fourth quarter despite robust consumer spending

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN1671KL

"The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter, as previously reported, and appeared to remain on a moderate growth path as President Donald Trump took office with a promise to reinvigorate manufacturing and protect jobs.....It now looks like trade will subtract over a half point from growth in the first quarter and inventories will be close to a neutral factor," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.
The trade deficit sliced off 1.70 percentage points from GDP growth in the fourth quarter, while inventories contributed 0.94 percentage point."

The U.S. economy has had substantial growth at the beginning of 2017. Trump, and is plan to boost economic growth has so far been working. GDP rose 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter showing progress in trumps 4 percent annual goal. However, even with these impressive numbers for Q3, Q4 has actually slowed in economic growth even though output and consumer spending increased. Economists said the wider goods deficit and weak inventories posed a downside risk to first-quarter GDP growth estimates.

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Poland’s Economic Growth to Accelerate in 2017

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Poland’s Economic Growth to Accelerate in 2017

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"Economic growth in Poland is estimated to increase to 3.1 percent in 2017, up from 2.5 percent in 2016, according to the latest edition of the Global Economic Prospects report, launched today."

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Bank of Japan raises economic growth forecasts, keeps policy unchanged

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Bank of Japan raises economic growth forecasts, keeps policy unchanged

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"For the current fiscal year, it expected the consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food, its preferred indicator, would fall 0.2 percent, compared with its October forecast for a 0.1 percent fall, but in fiscal 2017, the BOJ expected inflation of 1.5 percent."

In the article, Leslie Shaffer examines the Bank of Japan's decision to raise its economic forecast. The previous prediction for economic growth was 1.3%, however, it was updated to 1.5% for the fiscal year 2017. The prediction for 2018 was raised as well. Japan currently has the world's 3rd largest economy based on nominal GDP, so it will be interesting to see if they can keep up with the rapid growth of both the US and Chinese economies. My prediction is that they won't be able to, due to the fact that they lack the raw materials and space that the Chinese and Americans have.

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The Bank of Japan raised its economic growth forecasts on Tuesday, but kept its policy stance unchanged, as was widely expected in its latest policy review.

The central bank raised its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to 1.4 percent for the current fiscal year, from its previous forecast, made in October, of 1.0 percent growth. For fiscal 2017, it raised its economic growth forecast to 1.5 percent, from 1.3 percent, and for fiscal 2018, it raised its forecast to 1.1 percent, from 0.9 percent.

The BOJ said in a statement on Tuesday that it expected inflation to rise to around its target of 2 percent around fiscal 2018. It cited signs that medium-to-long term inflation expectations have stopped declining and were showing some indications of rising.

It also noted the labor market was tightening and that the effects of commodity-price declines were set to dissipate, with a pickup in international commodity prices set to push up consumer prices.

For the current fiscal year, it expected the consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food, its preferred indicator, would fall 0.2 percent, compared with its October forecast for a 0.1 percent fall, but in fiscal 2017, the BOJ expected inflation of 1.5 percent.

Analysts at DBS said in a note before the announcement that growth upgrades could be justified.

"Japan's exports and manufacturing have showed clear signs of recovery compared to a quarter ago, thanks to the improvement in the global economy, rebound in commodity prices and depreciation of the yen," DBS said.

The yen briefly strengthened after the decision, with the dollar fetching as little as 113.21 yen after the announcement, compared with as much as 113.73 yen shortly before the statement. At 11:35 a.m., the dollar was fetching 113.53 yen.

The BOJ decision followed some signs of improvement in the economy, but was likely tempered by uncertainty as the U.S., one of Japan's key trading partners, appeared set to pursue protectionist policies.

In its statement of risks, the BOJ mentioned developments in the U.S. economy and monetary policy, emerging market economies, particularly China, the consequences of Brexit and European debt issues as well as unspecified geopolitical risks.

The central bank had been widely expected to stay the course with its current yield-curve control policy, introduced at its late-September meeting.

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Bank of Japan raises economic growth forecasts, keeps policy unchanged

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The Bank of Japan raised its economic growth forecasts on Tuesday, but kept its policy stance unchanged, as was widely expected in its latest policy review. The central bank raised its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to 1.4 percent for the current fiscal year, from its previous forecast, made in October, of 1.0 percent growth.

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See all the wonderful things Fleur Byrne has made

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Trump Pinning Hopes on Economic Growth to Avoid Budget Cuts

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Trump Pinning Hopes on Economic Growth to Avoid Budget Cuts

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"'I think the money is going to come from a revved-up economy,' Mr. Trump said in an interview with Fox News when asked how he would pay for his plans. 'I mean, you look at the kind of numbers we’re doing — we were probably G.D.P. of a little more than 1 percent, and if I can get that up to 3 or maybe more, we have a whole different ballgame.'"

Alan Rappeport, an economic policy reporter at The New York Times, reviews details of President Trump's fiscal plans, specifically his reliance on a 3 percent economic growth in order to accumulate sufficient funds to finance his desired policies. The president has recently proposed a $54 billion increase in military spending, along with many other commitments including investment in infrastructure. He has also assured Republicans that he would not touch Social Security or medicare, appeasing their nervousness, even though these are the two biggest drivers of national debt. Few economists see Trump's 3 percent growth as realistic. Many Republicans are becoming increasingly worried of the fiscal dangers of his policies.

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WASHINGTON - President Trump suggested on Tuesday that "a revved-up economy" could generate enough additional tax revenue to pay for his proposed $54 billion military buildup, relieving pressure on him to cut Social Security.

The White House had said Monday that the extra money for the Defense Department would be offset dollar-for-dollar with cuts elsewhere in the government. Aides singled out the State Department, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Internal Revenue Service as targets for austerity - plans that the White House has not backed away from.

But on Tuesday, the president seemed to cling to a different hope - that a surge in economic growth would do the trick.

"I think the money is going to come from a revved-up economy," Mr. Trump said in an interview with Fox News when asked how he would pay for his plans. "I mean, you look at the kind of numbers we're doing - we were probably G.D.P. of a little more than 1 percent, and if I can get that up to 3 or maybe more, we have a whole different ballgame."

The comments, made ahead of his first presidential address to Congress, reflect the tension within the Trump administration over how to make bold investments in infrastructure and the military, cut taxes, protect Social Security and Medicare - and still remain fiscally responsible. Mr. Trump's hopes, moreover, appear at odds with the lower growth forecast by his own economic team and the forecasts of most economists.

Mr. Trump's budget outline has made some Republicans nervous because he appears to be keeping his campaign pledge not to touch Social Security or Medicare, the two biggest drivers of the national debt. Mr. Trump's budget director, Mick Mulvaney, has been a fierce advocate for making cuts to the programs, but Mr. Trump said on Tuesday that it would not be necessary because his tax cuts and the repeal of the Affordable Care Act would unleash a torrent of growth.

"If the economy sails, then I'm right, because I said I'm not touching Social Security," he said.

Few if any economists foresee the burst of growth Mr. Trump is counting on. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the real gross domestic product will grow at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent through the end of 2018.

Even the president's own budget office is using an optimistic forecast - 2.4 percent economic growth - to calculate the White House's anticipated deficit for the coming fiscal year. That rate is above most other estimates but well below the 3 percent Mr. Trump appears to be counting on.

Mr. Trump faces significant obstacles when it comes to turning his budget blueprint into reality. He will need to get Congress to lift the military spending caps mandated by the 2011 Budget Control Act, and he will have to convince Democrats and members of his own party that his priorities make economic sense.

Early doubts among Republicans were palpable on Tuesday. Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, suggested that Mr. Trump's proposal to reduce spending on foreign aid would be unwise for fiscal and security reasons.

Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, panned Mr. Trump's plan to make deep cuts at the State Department, calling the idea "dead on arrival."

On the other side of the ledger, House Republicans openly worried about Mr. Trump's plans to increase spending on military and other programs while taking entitlement cuts off the table.

"It is essential that we put our nation onto a sustainable fiscal path," Representative Jeb Hensarling of Texas, chairman of the Financial Services Committee, said while discussing the 2018 budget. "We cannot simply call for more spending and more taxes that grows Washington's economy at the expense of the Main Street economy."

As the budget negotiations move forward, Mr. Mulvaney, a former representative from South Carolina who once favored government default over adding to the deficit, will be instrumental in persuading his old colleagues that Mr. Trump has the right approach. But asked on Tuesday about how the president would manage to keep all of his promises without making politically fraught cuts to entitlement programs, Mr. Mulvaney was noncommital.

"Those are bigger discussions for another day," he said on ABC News.

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Trump Pinning Hopes on Economic Growth to Avoid Budget Cuts

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WASHINGTON - President Trump suggested on Tuesday that "a revved-up economy" could generate enough additional tax revenue to pay for his proposed $54 billion military buildup, relieving pressure on him to cut Social Security. The White House had said Monday that the extra money for the Defense Department would be offset dollar-for-dollar with cuts elsewhere in the government.

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To strengthen the economy, raise the bar for immigrants

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To strengthen the economy, raise the bar for immigrants

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"That needs to change. This “family preference” system isn’t in America’s economic interests. It doesn’t bring in the workers our economy needs. And it deprives American citizens of the right to choose who gets to come here, and instead gives that power to recent immigrants. A better system would prioritize admission based on an immigrant’s potential to create jobs and contribute to America’s economy."

Tim Conway explains the negative economic effects of uneducated immigrants brought in on this family system. He talks about the mass amount of immigrants which drop out leading to them working low skill jobs. He feels that these jobs can easily be filled up by Americans and would be in best interest for the economy. Another big problem he talks about is how immigrants create a burden on tax payers. Tim writes that over half of immigrant households rely on at least one welfare program, compared to 30 percent of households headed by someone born in America which is obviously not good for tax payers. With all these flaws, he think the bar has to be raised for immigrants to further benefit out economy.

http://www.dailyprogress.com/newsvirginian/opinion/guest_columnists/to-strengthen-the-economy-raise-the-bar-for-immigrants/article_ab75a2ce-fe0e-11e6-985c-a3988abe67ff.html

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U.S. economy slowed in fourth quarter despite robust consumer spending

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U.S. economy slowed in fourth quarter despite robust consumer spending

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"U.S. economy slowed in fourth quarter despite robust consumer spending"

According to Reuters Business Report, despite massive consumer spending our GDP has decreased growth in the fourth quarter. Several estimates in the business and government spending sector were much higher than the real numbers turned out to be. This is only one quarter and the economist writing this report that an acceleration in growth is likely.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN1671KL

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US Q4 2016 second reading GDP up 1.9% vs 2.1% growth expected

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US Q4 2016 second reading GDP up 1.9% vs 2.1% growth expected

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(BRIAN MACCORDY)

"Gross domestic product rose at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the final three months of 2016, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday in its second estimate for the period. That matched the estimate published last month. Output increased at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter. The economy grew 1.6 percent for all of 2016, its worst performance since 2011, after expanding 2.6 percent in 2015."

This article talks about the growth of GDP in America, both at the end of 2016, and the expectations for GDP growth in the future. The article cites revisions and government investments as reasons for the final quarter of 2016 having a GDP at a historic low. The article continues by talking about how President Trump will likely impact Quarter 1 of 2017 and the GDP growth of the United States, as he promised a 4% increase in the annual GDP increase. Although in 2017 it has been hard to get a read of where GDP is heading due to things such as retail sales rising, but capital good sales decreasing. One other thing to note is that there has been an increase in consumer spending, which makes up a large majority of the US' economic activity.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/28/second-estimate-of-us-q4-2016-gdp.html

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"The expansion of education determines not only the rate of economic progress but also the rate of social and economic transformation, he said."

This article focusses on the fact that education is necessary to maintain a healthy economy. The economy can only increase when the people who are helping to improve it are educated on what they are doing. The increase in available education options are helping economies all over the world to improve. Manmohan Singh, the former Prime Minister of India, states that “education is well recognised as an instrument of fast economic development and is key to the achievement of social and economic transformation”. There is also a close relationship between knowledge and innovation leading to a higher productivity.

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Trump Administration to Rev Up Global Growth, Says OECD

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Trump Administration to Rev Up Global Growth, Says OECD

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"In the aftermath of the U.S. elections, there is widespread expectation of a significant change in direction for macroeconomic policy," the report said. "All told, the combined fiscal measures raise calendar year U.S. [gross domestic product] growth by around 0.4 percentage points in 2017 and a little over 0.8 percentage points in 2018."

In the article, Andrew Soergel discusses how economic experts believe that the Trump administration will help the global economy grow faster than previously believed. The article mentions the continued increase in economic growth expectancy in 2017 and 2018. According to the article, the economy is expected to grow 2.3 percent in 2017 and then 3 percent in 2018, while previously in 2016 we did have economic growth, the growth was less than expected for this current year. Because of this, Soergel infers that the economy should continue to grow more and more over the recent years to come.  Furthermore, the OECD (The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) believes that with some deregulation, the new administration can help the U.S. economy in the long run.

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-11-28/donald-trump-to-benefit-global-economic-growth-oecd-says

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Total federal debt set to pass $20 trillion, a huge threat to millennials

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Total federal debt set to pass $20 trillion, a huge threat to millennials

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"The nonchalance many policymakers have toward our national debt has many millennials thinking, "Why should I care?" After all, spending decisions from Washington can seem intangible and meaningless for what matters most to young Americans.

But failing to act and leaving future generations with the bill, particularly for millennials—the single largest and most diverse generation of Americans—will have severe negative effects. If not addressed, the debt and Washington's culture of spending threatens to harm all of us, limiting economic opportunity, earning power, and the ability to repay student loans, buy a home, or start a new business. If we don't put Medicare and Social Security on a sustainable path, they'll be bankrupt long before we reach retiring age."

This article speaks to the United States' national wealth, specifically, the country's national debt. The debt is currently at 19.93 trillion dollars, and with it closing in on 20 trillion dollars, the article talks about impacts that a huge debt could have in the future. Entitlement programs are likely to go bankrupt long before any of our generation is ready to recieve them, which means we will be paying in money we will never see. Additionally, the interest on the debt will become a larger sum of our budget, only compounding the issue and resulting in higher taxes.

President Trump has stated, consistent with conservative values, that taxes should be cut and the government should be smaller. However, unlike Republicans like Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, who ran on entitlement reform in 2012, Trump says he will not touch entitlements. This will likely cause an even more significant rise in the debt, only worsening the problems created by Obama's disastrous spending policies, which doubled the debt during his presidency.

(Fritz Schemel)

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/total-federal-debt-set-to-pass-20-trillion-a-huge-threat-to-millennials/article/2615903

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"In this century, per-capita growth has been less than 1 percent a year on average, and even since 2009 it’s been only 1.1 percent a year. If the U.S. had been able to maintain postwar 20th-century growth rates into this century, U.S. per-capita G.D.P. would be over 20 percent higher than it is today."

David Brooks, a New York Times Op-Ed writer, explains that the U.S. is actually experiencing declining economic growth. Although there is still growth, it is not nearly as rapid as it could be. Brooks contributes this to a decrease in moving, business start-ups and patents. Further, more people are dropping out of the labor force. As an effect, this has created a static economy and society.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/21/opinion/this-century-is-broken.html

(Samantha Little)

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If we want jobs and economic growth, cut the regulatory budget

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If we want jobs and economic growth, cut the regulatory budget

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Kenny Brill
"Reducing the size of the regulatory state is a promising means for cutting spending and growing the economy."

In this article,  Lawrence J. Spiwak, an opinion contributor,  claims that excessive regulation on the U.S. economy slows down economic growth and the creation of jobs. President Trump has already started to cut back on regulation and has even promised to cut it by 75%. Already, President Trump has signed an executive order that states executive agencies must destroy two regulations for every one created. Lawrence Spiwak's research at the Phoenix Center shows that government spending on regulations is inversely related to economic growth and job creation. It was concluded in the research that cutting spending on regulations will increase America's GDP and create more jobs in the economy. Congress is the branch who has control over this as they have "the power of the purse", meaning they determine where to spend money.

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There can be no doubt that excess regulation weighs heavily on the American economy, slowing both economic growth and job creation, two things this nation desperately needs. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged only 1.4 percent over the past decade, the U.S. now has nearly $20 trillion in debt, and real wages are stagnant.

And while the reported unemployment rate may only be 4.6 percent, much of the rate's decline has come from the sharply falling labor participation rate that now sits at just under 63 percent. Today, nearly 95 million Americans are out of the workforce, about 7 million more than in 2008.

Recognizing the role of excessive regulation on growth, President Trump has launched an aggressive campaign to curb the regulatory state, promising to cut regulations by a whopping 75 percent.

The president appears to mean business.

For example, as one of his first actions as president, Trump signed an executive order implementing a regulatory freeze across executive agencies.

Shortly thereafter, the president signed a second executive order requiring executive agencies to identify two existing regulations for elimination for every one new regulate they seek to promulgate. This simple yet clever mandate forces even an active regulator into a deregulatory mindset, a shift of attention that may yet prove effective.

And just last week, the president signed a third executive order which directs executive agencies to designate a "regulatory reform officer" who will head a new "regulatory reform task force" to identify existing regulations which, inter alia, either harm job creation and employment, are outdated or impose costs that exceed their benefits.

While the administration's efforts should be lauded, the president is likely to find - just like his predecessors before him - that aggressive regulatory reform is easier imagined than accomplished. The regulatory state has created powerful constituencies that are reluctant to disrupt the status quo.

Moreover, given the inherent nature of the regulatory process (i.e., the need for an administrative agency to draft a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking [NPRM] before it seeks to strike existing regulations off the books, the due process requirement that such NPRM be put out for public notice and comment, and other statutory constraints on deregulatory efforts), significant and rapid change will face multiple hurdles.

However, empirical evidence suggests that significant regulatory reform and corresponding economic growth may also be achieved by using a fundamental tool in Congress's arsenal: the power of the purse.

In 2011, we at the Phoenix Center released an econometric analysis in which we suggested that one way to reduce the overall size of the regulatory burden would be by curbing federal spending on regulatory efforts, an approach that also has a direct and favorable effect on the overall federal budget. Our results were significant.

Using modern time-series econometric methods, our research quantified the relationship between government spending on regulatory activity and the important goals of economic growth and job creation. We evaluated 50 years of data on the regulatory budget, GDP and private-sector employment.

We found that the size of the regulatory budget is inversely related to economic growth and the number of private-sector jobs. As such, our study provided empirical evidence to support what most Americans already intuitively know: Reducing the size of the regulatory state is a promising means for cutting spending and growing the economy.

Last week, we released an update to that paper, applying the statistical model to an expanded set of data. Again, our results reveal that a judicious use of the power of the purse on the federal regulatory budget can produce positive economic effects.

Among other findings, our updated empirical analysis reveals:

A 10 percent reduction in the regulatory budget - or about $5.6 billion - will produce an additional $1.2 trillion in GDP annually over the next five years, or $244 billion annually.

On average, a 10 percent reduction in the regulatory budget implies a $45 gain for every $1 decline in the regulatory budget.

A 10 percent reduction in the regulatory budget - which implies a return to pre-Obama administration levels - leads to an increase of 3 million new private-sector jobs annually.

On a cost-per-regulator basis, one regulator costs the U.S. economy the equivalent of 138 private sector jobs per year under current conditions. Each regulator costs the U.S. economy $11 million annually.

Recent press reports indicate that the Trump administration intends to propose a budget with significant reductions to the funding of most federal administrative agencies.

While we won't know the details of the president's plan until mid-March, our empirical analysis demonstrates that any discussion of responsible cuts to the regulatory budget is at least a welcome first step toward shrinking federal spending and getting the economy moving again.

Lawrence J. Spiwak is the president of the Phoenix Center for Advanced Legal & Economic Public Policy Studies, a research organization that studies broad public-policy issues related to governance, social and economic conditions, with a particular emphasis on the law and economics of the digital age. A full copy of the study referenced in above - "Phoenix Center Policy Perspective No. 17-01: What is the 'Cost per Regulator' on GDP and Private Sector Job Creation? An Update on Prior Research" - may be downloaded here.
The views of contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.

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If we want jobs and economic growth, cut the regulatory budget

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There can be no doubt that excess regulation weighs heavily on the American economy, slowing both economic growth and job creation, two things this nation desperately needs. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged only 1.4 percent over the past decade, the U.S. now has nearly $20 trillion in debt, and real wages are stagnant.

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Oxfam Study Highlights Massive Global Wealth Divide

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Oxfam Study Highlights Massive Global Wealth Divide

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"Our economic system is heavily skewed in their (the wealthiest) favor, and arguably increasingly so," Oxfam said. "Far from trickling down, income and wealth are instead being sucked upwards at an alarming rate." – Hjelmgaard (USA Today, 2016)

This article discusses the economic and societal concerns of inequality throughout the world. Published right before the World Economic Forum in 2016, Kim Hjelmgaard wrote this article with the goal of exploiting how technology has altered everyday life and had a huge impact on the economic status of the poorest and richest people in our population. An interesting aspect of this article was the study conducted by Oxfam, a poverty fighting organization, which explored how it only took 388 of the world’s wealthiest individuals to match the poorest half of the world. Furthermore, Oxfam credits this large gap to the decline of national income going to the workers and the constant capital growth  through interest payments, dividends, or retained profits experienced by their owners. In summation, the growing gap in our society's economy negatively impacts our ability to interact with one another and limits our society to act on the desires of the rich. (KATIE ORLIN)

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/01/17/oxfam-wealth-inequality-report-davos/78929370/

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How A Weakened Mexican Economy Could Threaten U.S. Security

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How A Weakened Mexican Economy Could Threaten U.S. Security

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-weakened-mexican-economy-could-threaten-u-s-security/

This dynamic has played out in country after country. Economic pressures were part of the drivers of the Arab Spring protests in Egypt and across the region. The current economic recession in Brazil and a century of economic turmoil in Argentina have both been linked to political instability in those countries. Or, to take an example of the relationship working in the reverse: The Chinese government’s primary tool for survival — social stability — depends almost entirely upon its ability to maintain economic growth. We’ve seen it here at home, too: The Great Recession that began in 2008 preceded, in quick succession, the tea party movement and Occupy Wall Street, forces that are in some ways still at play today.

With Trumps plan to completely shut out Mexico, we will see if this really does have an affect on our economy. Higher tariffs on imports from Mexico and dismantling NAFTA could play a large role not only the political relations between our two countries, which we have already seen, but could also play a role in the economy. This article has linked weakened economies of countries to the surrounding countries around it. Corruption is a big player in this ultimate decision. If Trump were to put these new laws into effect corruption may only get worse due to economic pressure. Instability might have an effect on the people of Mexico blaming us for their new found problems.

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How A Weakened Mexican Economy Could Threaten U.S. Security

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How A Weakened Mexican Economy Could Threaten U.S. Security

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How A Weakened Mexican Economy Could Threaten U.S. Security

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How A Weakened Mexican Economy Could Threaten U.S. Security

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How A Weakened Mexican Economy Could Threaten U.S. Security

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Economic growth lackluster at end of 2016 but stronger gains may lie ahead

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Economic growth lackluster at end of 2016 but stronger gains may lie ahead

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http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/02/28/economy-grew-19-q4/98497274/
"Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of economic activity, grew a healthy 3% in the fourth quarter, above the 2.5% previously estimated. U.S. households are opening their wallets in response to solid job and income growth, still inexpensive gasoline, and higher home and stock prices." - Paul Davidson
"Economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics expects 2.5% growth by 2018 after Congress passes a compromise version of Trump’s stimulus plan." - Paul Davidson

This article focuses on the hope of economic growth in the future despite sluggish results in the past year. This is based on the assumption that congress will compromise Trump's stimulus plan for the economy.

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"Mr. Trump did not describe his calculations, but similar numbers can be derived from the Treasury’s daily reports on the national debt. The data show that on Feb. 21, the national debt was $12 billion smaller than on Jan. 20. As of Thursday, the day with the most recent data, the national debt had declined by $33 billion since Mr. Trump’s inauguration.

The daily Treasury reports also show that the national debt increased by $212 billion from Jan. 20 to Feb. 20 in 2009."

Since the inauguration of president Trump the national debt has gone down by $12 billion, a drop of .06%, according to Treasury data. While Trump boasts of his recent success comparing his performance to that of president Obamas, there are some factors he forgot. While the U.S. Debt under president Obama went up $200 billion in the first month, he was also working his way to getting america out of the recession. In the article in the New York Times it reads, "The debt is rising more slowly now because economic growth has strengthened and because of policy decisions made during Mr. Obama’s administration. But the debt is on a clear upward trend."

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WASHINGTON - In a message posted on Twitter on Saturday, President Trump highlighted a dip in the national debt during his first month in office, contrasting it with an increase in the first month of the Obama administration.

The numbers are broadly accurate, but the lack of attention to them is for good reason: Neither president bore responsibility for changes in the federal debt in his opening month in the White House. The slight decline cited by Mr. Trump - a drop of 0.06 percent, according to Treasury data - is a temporary fluctuation, not a change in direction.

The federal debt is determined by the government's decisions about taxing and spending, and by the strength of the American economy. The debt was increasing rapidly in early 2009 because the economy was in free fall, and because of policy decisions made during the administration of President George W. Bush.

The debt is rising more slowly now because economic growth has strengthened and because of policy decisions made during Mr. Obama's administration. But the debt is on a clear upward trend. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated in January that the debt would increase by $559 billion in the current fiscal year, ending in September.

The exact amount of the debt bounces around that trend line because the Treasury borrows money by selling securities with maturities - or repayment dates - ranging from 28 days to 30 years. That creates an irregular pattern of inflows and outflows from the federal cash box.

The president leveled his complaint on Twitter not long after Herman Cain, a former Republican presidential candidate, raised a similar criticism on "Fox and Friends Weekend."

Mr. Trump did not describe his calculations, but similar numbers can be derived from the Treasury's daily reports on the national debt. The data show that on Feb. 21, the national debt was $12 billion smaller than on Jan. 20. As of Thursday, the day with the most recent data, the national debt had declined by $33 billion since Mr. Trump's inauguration.

The daily Treasury reports also show that the national debt increased by $212 billion from Jan. 20 to Feb. 20 in 2009.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, issued a statement applauding the president for focusing on the national debt while noting that "the improvement this early in his term has to do with normal fluctuations in spending and revenues rather than new policies he has implemented."

While presidents do not exert immediate influence over the size of the national debt, Mr. Trump will have his chance to make an impact.

He has proposed tax cuts that would reduce federal revenues, as well as tariffs on imports that would have the opposite effect. He has also proposed reducing federal spending in some areas while increasing it in others, like defense and infrastructure.

The performance of the economy will also play an important role. Economic growth generates more tax revenue and reduces federal spending on social welfare programs.

The national debt increased sharply during Mr. Obama's first term as the government increased spending in response to the 2008 financial crisis. The debt grew more slowly during his second term as the economy improved and tax increases brought more money into the government's coffers.

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National Debt Dips. Trump Crows. Well, Sure, but ...

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WASHINGTON - In a message posted on Twitter on Saturday, President Trump highlighted a dip in the national debt during his first month in office, contrasting it with an increase in the first month of the Obama administration.

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Trump to Seek $54 Billion Increase in Military Spending

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Trump to Seek $54 Billion Increase in Military Spending

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"The president’s budget proposals — which were short on detail but are said to exempt not just Medicare and Social Security but also veterans’ benefits and law enforcement efforts — would lead to deep reductions in federal programs that touch millions of lives. The White House signaled that it would begin with agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency, the Internal Revenue Service and social safety-net programs."

This article discusses how President Trump plans to slash funds for popular programs relating to education, the environment, science, and poverty. Although Republicans generally agree on cutting government programs to reduce the federal deficit, President Trump has broken with Republican leaders, such as Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, in campaigning on his promise not to cute= Social Security or Medicaid. Trump believes that increased military spending will make America stronger and safer abroad. Although his budget proposals were not detailed, it is clear that these new budget cuts will impact many American lives, whether it's positive or negative. What many political scientists think is the most significant part of his budget proposals is how it signifies a consistent inclination for President Trump to oppose traditional Republican policies- such as  cuts to Medicaid and Social Security, relationships with Russia, and free trade,

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U.S. Housing Market Roars Into 2017, Case-Shiller Says

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U.S. Housing Market Roars Into 2017, Case-Shiller Says

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"A number of markets that have seen prices grow modestly since the recession are starting to see much faster rates of increase than they had in the recent past. Tampa, Fla., jumped 8.4%, while Atlanta enjoyed a gain of 6.3% and Las Vegas increased 5.8%.  Nationwide, home prices hit a record in September and have continued climbing by more than 5% year-over-year since then, driven by strong demand and a shortage of homes for sale."

Due to buyers largely ignoring the effects of high interest rates, WSJ's Laura Kusisto reported that home prices rose as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices rose 5.8% the last of 12 months of 2016 (December) compared to a 5.6% year-over-year increase reported in November.  Unlike the increases in housing prices and mortgages leading up to the Global Financial Crisis (in which a real estate bubble was created following a fraudulent land boom), these price increases are a result of job growth and changing demographics.  Though the U.S. GDP grew 1.9% in 2016, if these prices continue to rise at a faster rate than personal incomes, economists predict future market challenges.  Such analyses promulgate the complexity of economic growth in the United States and the many industries that contribute to it.

(Jackie Sussman)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-home-prices-end-2016-on-high-note-case-shiller-says-1488290979

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Poland’s Economic Growth to Accelerate in 2017

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Poland’s Economic Growth to Accelerate in 2017

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http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/01/10/polands-economic-growth-to-accelerate-in-2017

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President Trump's Border WALL will SAVE money (WOOD)

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President Trump's Border WALL will SAVE money (WOOD)

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If President Trump’s border wall stopped just 10 percent of new illegal immigrants it would pay for itself by saving American taxpayers from spending money on services for those migrants over their lifetimes, according to a new report from the Center for Immigration Studies.

The center, which advocates for a crackdown on immigration, said illegal border crossers are a net drain of nearly $75,000 per person over their lifetimes. Stopping just 200,000 border-jumpers over the next decade would save some $15 billion.

The better the wall does at stopping people, the more money it saves taxpayers, the report said.

“If a wall stopped half of those expected to successfully enter illegally without going through a port of entry at the southern border over the next 10 years, it would save taxpayers nearly $64 billion — several times the wall’s cost,” Steven A. Camarota, a demographer and the report’s author, wrote.

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If President Trump 's border wall stopped just 10 percent of new illegal immigrants it would pay for itself by saving American taxpayers from spending money on services for those migrants over their lifetimes, according to a new report from the Center for Immigration Studies.

The center, which advocates for a crackdown on immigration, said illegal border crossers are a net drain of nearly $75,000 per person over their lifetimes. Stopping just 200,000 border-jumpers over the next decade would save some $15 billion.

The better the wall does at stopping people, the more money it saves taxpayers, the report said.

"If a wall stopped half of those expected to successfully enter illegally without going through a port of entry at the southern border over the next 10 years, it would save taxpayers nearly $64 billion - several times the wall's cost," Steven A. Camarota, a demographer and the report's author, wrote.

The figure for the cost of illegal immigrant border-crossers comes from a recent National Academy of Sciences report. It covers federal, state and local spending and benefits for illegal immigrants.

Mr. Camarota said new research from the Institute for Defense Analysis calculated that 170,000 illegal immigrants successfully jumped the border in 2015. Stopping just an extra 20,000 a year over the next decade would be enough to pay for a wall at $15 billion - a figure floated by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell earlier this year.

But Reuters reported this month on an internal Homeland Security study that said the wall's cost could be more than $20 billion, which would change the calculations for the break-even point.

Mr. Trump has said the price tag would be born by Mexico, but he has struggled to come up with a successful way to transfer the cost.

The crux of Mr. Camarota's calculations depends on the type of immigrant that's jumping the border. They are far more likely to have lower levels of education than either native-born Americans or legal immigrants. Some 57 percent of border crossers haven't completed high school, he calculated.

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Cost of wall is less than cost of services for illegals: Report

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If President Trump's border wall stopped just 10 percent of new illegal immigrants it would pay for itself by saving American taxpayers from spending money on services for those migrants over their lifetimes, according to a new report from the Center for Immigration Studies.

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Trump's Immigration Plans Could Cripple the US Economy and Hurt the Workers He's Pledging to Protect

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Trump's Immigration Plans Could Cripple the US Economy and Hurt the Workers He's Pledging to Protect

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“Almost unequivocally, experts from the left and the right ends of the political spectrum see immigration as a net benefit to the economy. They cite everything from population growth to increased tax receipts to diversity of people and ideas.”

Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, economics commentator and senior correspondent of Business Insider, sees immigration as a factor that increases the overall welfare in our economy.   Costa is surprised that Wall Street analysts today are more focused on President Trump’s corporate tax cuts than they are on the destructive economic effects of his immigration orders.  These immigration orders include “blanket travel bans on citizens of seven Muslim-majority nations as well as orders to increase deportations at the Mexican border with still-shifting guidelines.”   Costa analyzes the role of immigration bans in economic growth.   According to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, immigration is a substantial source of labor-force growth.  Consequently, a decline in immigration will likely reduce the rate of economic growth.  Furthermore, according to the Center for American Progress (CAP), mass deportation would eventually drop United States GDP by 2.6 percent.  A report by the CAP found that removing these immigrants, largely made up of unauthorized workers, would “reduce national employment by an amount similar to that experienced during the Great Recession.”  In addition, Casto states that immigrants are, in fact, more likely than those born in the United States to start their own business.  Therefore, it is clear that the elimination of unauthorized immigrant workers in the United States will stifle our economic growth. (JACKIE RHOADS)

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-immigration-plans-bad-for-us-economy-and-workers-2017-2

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https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/the-economy-is-not-doomed/517482/

"The 2016 election might seem like a death knell for liberals who dream that the United States might eventually come to resemble one of Europe’s social democracies. The Republican Party now controls the White House, both houses of Congress, and the majority of governorships and state legislatures.

But America’s youngest cohort of voters remains an underrated force for leftist economics. Burdened by student debt and the rising cost of housing and health care, this younger generation embraces a larger role for government. If, in a decade or two, today’s young liberal revolutionaries become the mainstream force in U.S. politics, Trump will have been a nativist paroxysm that merely delayed the inevitable evolution toward American social democracy."

"Jeffrey Sachs: Markets can only do certain things. They cannot ensure fairness. They cannot help the poorest of the poor. They cannot save the environment, or provide for modern infrastructure. But America has forgotten that in the last 36 years. We’ve been on one long privatization jaunt. The result is an economy that is quite rich but quite unequal, with decrepit infrastructure. The problem is not a shortage of technology but a shortage of common action.

Thompson: That is one of the book’s largest themes. The U.S. doesn’t suffer from scarcity, but rather from the unequal distribution of its abundance. So, there is little in the U.S. economy that cannot be fixed by more taxes, more planning, more spending, and more redistribution. But do any voters really want to hear that message?

Sachs: Millennials do. Bernie Sanders’ campaign showed that a message of economic redistribution can work. Words that used to be horrifying in the American political context, like socialism and social democracy, are commonplace among Millennials. They say government should have a larger role in health care and climate change. So I think the tide is turning."

"...in places where there is a higher African American population, there is less support for public goods. After the war on poverty, you had the Civil Rights Act and changes in the immigration code, which led to the Southern strategy, white identity politics, and a backlash to the civil rights movement.

Beyond that, American politics is much more penetrated by big money, especially after Citizens United. Big money has changed our politics, so that we have the politics of the billionaires. Even Trump, in an unbelievably crass bait and switch, attacked Hillary for her connections to Wall Street and turned to Wall Street to run his economic policy."

In this article, economist and Bernie Sanders adviser Jeffrey D. Sachs is interviewed about the current state and future of the US economy. Sachs believes that as the younger constituents in the United States age and become a more powerful force in the US populace, economic policy will likely take a leftward turn. He also discusses the trends in politics regarding taxation and redistribution. Since the Reagan Era the US has continually cut taxes which has significantly distanced the nation from social democracies around the world. Much of this movement has to do with the racial diversity of the United States, as most countries with Bernie's brand of democracy are predominantly white, and as diversity increases support for redistribution of wealth decreases. Sachs suggests that the growing automation in industry precipitates a need for further transfer of wealth as the income gap will continue to grow while the nation's total income will also increase. He states that blaming someone outside the US for the state of the middle class, Trump's strategy, was formulated as a way by which the rich can avoid be taxed at higher rates, which would be a more pragmatic solution. Finally, Sachs discusses the indifference Americans have towards global problems if they do not affect the United States. He believes that Americans can change the world with very little sums of money, which most Americans don't realize. He also states that is humanity's duty to distribute the incredible wealth the world has amassed so as to help elevate the living conditions and status of those who live in extreme poverty around the world. (Henry Carter)

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Attracting Young, Skilled Workers Drives a State’s Economic Growth

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Attracting Young, Skilled Workers Drives a State’s Economic Growth

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2017-02-28/attracting-young-skilled-workers-drives-a-states-economic-growth

"Broad-based economic gains, like those in Denver and Colorado Springs in recent years, ultimately depend on an array of factors firing on all cylinders. But it's difficult to overstate the importance of where Americans – particularly younger working-aged Americans – are choosing to live as a determinant of economic success" (Andrew Soergel, Feb. 28 2017).

The article follows a startup company based out of San Francisco called Gusto and questions Gusto's CEO, Joshua Reeves, about the company's recent success in growth. Reeve's response was insightful as he claims that after he had succeeded in the Silicon Valley startup area, he looked to expand elsewhere. He emphasized the importance of finding a place that was similar to Silicon Valley; a place where innovation strived but also where young talent could be scouted and hired. The place that Reeves found that was most similar, in his mind, to Silicon Valley was Denver, Colorado. The article then supports Reeve's decision and points out other states that have the same characteristics as Denver and San Francisco and evaluates those others state's success. It was discovered in the article that states and cities that share the same characteristics as San Francisco experience the best economic growth nationwide and overall, have the best economies nationwide. (Joshua Parower)

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Trump is already walking back his most important promise on the economy

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Trump is already walking back his most important promise on the economy

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"The White House website still boasts that "to get the economy back on track, President Trump has outlined a bold plan to create 25 million new American jobs in the next decade and return to 4% annual economic growth." But in an interview with CNBC, Mnuchin was signing a much softer tune. "We believe we can get back to sustainable growth of 3% or more," he said. To put the difference in perspective, a full percentage point of growth could equate to millions of new jobs, so the margin of error is hardly trivial" (Business Insider).

President Donald Trump ran under a somewhat empty promise of ensuring a 4% economic growth in America. His plan ultimately promised 25 million new jobs for U.S. citizens, however, recent analysis estimates that the U.S. economy will only have a 3% growth rate. Although a 1% difference does not seem great, in terms of macroeconomics it is. This amount means millions of less jobs than Trump has promised, so already Trumps promises are not being met. This is a huge margin of error and should not be ignored. (Lauren Chasnow)

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What the U.S. really needs is a wall to keep immigrants in

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What the U.S. really needs is a wall to keep immigrants in

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"To deliver the economic growth Trump has promised, the U.S. will need producers and consumers, and there won’t be enough of them without immigration."

This article talked about the decreasing number of Mexican immigrants in the United States. The author claims that in order to achieve the economic growth that Trump promises, we will need to have more producers and more consumers, and that Mexican immigrants have the potential to add these. The author talks about how in the 1990's, 3 million Mexicans migrated to the United States, and that this contributed to the strengthening of the economy during this time. However in the years since, there have been fewer immigrants from Mexico, and this could hinder the president's efforts to strengthen our economy. (MAX POPKEN)

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-sciubba-why-the-us-needs-more-not-fewer-mexican-immigrants-20170221-story.html

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Trump's wrong — Immigrants promote economic growth

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Trump's wrong — Immigrants promote economic growth

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"A central issue is that it is easy to think that the labor market is a zero-sum game and the number of jobs available is fixed. If everyone were competing over a finite number of jobs, more immigrants would mean fewer opportunities for natives, and vice versa, right? The reality, however, is much more complex, as I will show. Further, it is simply false to think of the number of jobs as fixed in the first place. Employment has been generally rising since 2010, which means more jobs for everyone.

A new migrant interested in the same job as you may diminish your odds a little, but a single immigrant with a good idea might end up creating hundreds or thousands of jobs that wouldn’t have existed had he or she not crossed an ocean or border (the impact of son-of-a-migrant Steve Jobs or South African tech entrepreneur Elon Musk comes to mind)." (Shih)

Overall, this article discusses how even though many Americans feel that immigrants will hurt our economic and cause economic failures, immigrants actually help the economy and promote growth. This is because immigrants do not go into all sectors of the work force equally. According to Kevin Shih, "Immigrants are highly overrepresented in either very low-skilled manual and labor-intensive jobs or very high-skilled science and engineering occupations" so therefore, the workforce is minimally changed. There are immigrants who have the power to change the world, such as Elon Musk. Also, because many immigrants are engineers and scientists, they promote growth by promoting innovation from researching. Therefore, this is one reason of how the economy is indeed helped by the addition of immigrants in our society. (KAPLAN)

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Israel's Economic Growth Surged 6.2% Higher in Fourth Quarter

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Israel's Economic Growth Surged 6.2% Higher in Fourth Quarter

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“Data on economic activity like these puts the Bank of Israel is a very uncomfortable place. On the one hand, a rate of expansion like this doesn’t justify interest rates at zero, especially when much of the growth is due to expanding credit,” Yehuda said. “On the other hand ... it would strengthen the shekel and make it harder to reach the inflation target.” (Bassok)

This article talks about Israel's extremely strong rate of economic growth and the consequential increase in value of the Israeli shekel. In the fourth fiscal quarter Israel's economy grew by over 6%, which as the quote explains puts banks in Israel in a difficult position.   Israel's GDP increased a lot mainly due to the export of goods and services as these rose at an 11.2% rate. Israeli economists expect consumer spending to continue to rise but at a slower rate. Economists in Israel are very impressed by the growth and expect it to continue in the coming years.

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See all the wonderful things Victoria Orlin has made

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Trump speech could detain economic plan, tax cuts  (USA TODAY)

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Trump speech could detain economic plan, tax cuts  (USA TODAY)

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"A busy week of economic news will be highlighted by a familiar wildcard: President Trump. Trump is scheduled to address a joint session of Congress Tuesday evening and analysts are awaiting any details of his economic plan, particularly tax cuts. A batch of other releases will shed light on business investment, consumer confidence and spending, the health of the manufacturing and service sectors, and a revised estimate of economic growth in the fourth quarter" (Paul Davidson, Feb 27).

It is apparent that Trump's state of the union speech will clear up many uncertainties within the American economy. It is worrisome that non-defense capital goods has risen for 3 straight months. The potential cutting of taxes also will have a domino effect. Trump could potentially lower corporate taxes from 35 to 15 percent. Many lawmakers are skeptical of Trump's idea that the economic growth will be made up faster than the government revenue losses from taxes. Trump has made many economists and businesses extremely wary and cautious about the future of the country. But the upcoming days could provide clarity to the of America.

STEVEN FROST

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/02/27/trump-speech-could-detail-economic-plan-tax-cuts/98352574/

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Connecticut: Two sides of a Deep Economic Divide 

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Connecticut: Two sides of a Deep Economic Divide 

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"But in Bridgeport, where incomes hover overwhelmingly in the bottom two quintiles, residents see their ills as going far beyond tax reform. Once a leading industrial city with huge factories that produced Singer sewing machines, Remington rifles, Sikorsky helicopters, engines and electronics for General Electric and components for the wartime Manhattan Project that produced the atomic bomb, Bridgeport has failed to reinvent itself." -Michael Moran (npr, 2013)
In the article Connecticut: Two Sides of a Deep Economic Divide, Michael Moran talks about the vast contrast in lifestyle and wealth between Bridgeport and the rest of Fairfield County is dramatic. He states that during WW2 Bridgeport mass produced " Singer sewing machines, Remington rifles, Sikorsky helicopters, engines and electronics for General Electric and components for the wartime Manhattan Project." However these all soon became unnecessary and the factories were abandoned. Without many attempts buy the government to redevelop, these buildings left vacant and become environmentally hazardous . Moran says that because of this lack of government development, any prosperous Bridgeport residents move out to cities like Stratford, Fairfield, and Trumbull. The local government has to take action quick if they want Bridgeport to experience the success the rest of Fairfield County has experienced in recent years.

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Status anxiety: 12,000 millionaires fled this country last year (it’s not the U.S.)

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Status anxiety: 12,000 millionaires fled this country last year (it’s not the U.S.)

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"The movement of millionaire migrants is a key indicator of how wealthy residents feel about the current political and economic climate of the countries that have fallen in and out of favor." -  Quentin Fottrell
There has been a recent increase in the migration of wealthy individuals, particularly millionaires. Australia has been the most popular destination for millionaires for the second year in a row. This reflects Australia's stability both economically and politically. For many countries, the recent loss of wealthy individuals will show effects later on in the year, in both consumption of goods and tax revenue. (ALIN PASA)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-country-is-no-1-for-millionaire-migrants-and-its-not-the-us-2017-02-27

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The U.S. Economy in 2017: Welcome Higher Growth

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The U.S. Economy in 2017: Welcome Higher Growth

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“The promise of an important decrease in regulatory and tax burdens on U.S. businesses suggests that the U.S. economy will grow faster than most analysts expected. In addition, (and mostly due to internal rather than external factors), the U.S. economy will be a key driving force of other Western economies.” -- Alejandro Chafuen (Forbes, 2017)

Alejandro Chafuen, president and CEO of Atlas Economic Research Foundation, predicts higher growth within the U.S. economy as a result of a “change in outlook as well as in the ideological bent of the designated cabinet members of the incoming administration.” President Trump’s role in increasing the economic growth is analyzed throughout this particular article. In fact, Chafuen believes that some of Trump’s choices for his cabinet reflect a determination to make the U.S. more attractive to business. Furthermore, the strong performance of stocks, in the U.S. and UK, indicate that the world market does in fact take Trump seriously. However, Chaufen describes how an increased amount of global terrorism and conflict affecting U.S. allies poses national security challenges and protectionist threats which threaten the overall growth of the economy. In sum, Chafuen believes that Trump’s role as president will work to increase the economic growth of the U.S.; even so, the country continues to face economic challenges as a result of terrorism and global conflicts. (ANAY SIMUNOVIC)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alejandrochafuen/2017/01/03/the-u-s-economy-in-2017-welcome-higher-growth/2/#6d41c7e57ba7

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See all the wonderful things Jackson Delgado has made

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The economic consequences of Donald Trump

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The economic consequences of Donald Trump

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"Trump's victory will harm growth and corporate profits. But volatility, rather than a bear market, might be the more probable outcome, given the lack of clarity as to what Mr. Trump will prioritise in office. Bond prices will probably wobble a lot as markets seek insurance against risk. Normally, American bonds are the world's great safe haven. Treasury prices look set to fall this morning, however. Traders might be second-guessing the safety provided by American government debt; the trouble for investors is that if treasuries are not safe, nothing is."

This article discusses how President Trump and his economic plans are predicted to cause economic chaos. The article discusses how Trump's tax cuts would only benefit the rich. In addition, it discusses how if Trump follows through with his "plans" to increase spending on defense, infrastructure, and detain and deport large numbers of people; government spending would sky rocket. It also discusses the implications of the loss of our country's undocumented immigrants . Under Trump immigrants  are very vulnerable. This vulnerability will reduce their ability to move, change jobs, make large investments, and ask employers for higher pay or better treatment.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2016/11/global-economy

(Emily Bass)

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"More important for the modern reader is that these economic problems can only be solved once, which means that we can only get the economic and productivity growth from solving these problems once. And save for the information technology revolution that began in the 1970s, and which gave us the productivity boom of the late 1990s, there have been no similar technological leaps since the 1970s."

This article discusses a book written by economist Robert Gordon, titled The Rise and Fall of American Growth. According to Gordon, the growth of the american economy is at a stand still, and most likely will not come out of it. One of the factors he claims that causes this is the lack of technological development in America currently. Back in 1890, less than 25% of the population had running water, while slightly more than 10% had a toilet that could actually be flushed. Nobody had electricity as their primary means of lighting or indoor heating. The solving of these problems in future years allowed for increased economic growth, with the new money that could be brought in with new technological advancements. Gordon claims that problems like these can only be solved once, and since many of them have already been solved, there is no where to go to look for a new technological advancement that could increase our economic growth.

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Here's Why Economic Growth in America is Over

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Economist Robert Gordon's new book argues that we can't replicate the technological advances of the industrial revolution

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Some Fed Officials Support Moving Faster to Raise Interest Rate

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Some Fed Officials Support Moving Faster to Raise Interest Rate

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"At the Fed’s most recent meeting, on Jan. 31 and Feb. 1, 'many participants' wanted to increase the benchmark rate 'fairly soon' if the economy continued to grow, according to minutes published Wednesday. But the minutes stopped short of suggesting a rate increase was likely at the Fed’s next meeting, in mid-March. They said that a core group of Fed officials remained cautious about the economic outlook, seeing balanced risks of faster and slower economic growth."

This article analyzed the released audio files of the Federal Reserve's meeting from four weeks ago, where voting members discussed whether they should increase the benchmark interest rate. Due to confidence in a growing economy and labor force from economists, and optimism amongst corporate executives, proponents of the measure hold that borrowers will be able to pay back their loans, ultimately rewarding the lenders while allowing businesses to acquire funds. Opponents of the measure cite the increase of the rate in December, from 0.5% to 0.75%, to argue that immediate action is unnecessary. One interesting component of the matter is the uncertainty involved in making this decision, as there is no way of knowing whether the economy and labor force will continue to grow, especially after a transition to a new presidential administration. Ultimately, it seems like the Fed will be cautious regarding the benchmark interest rate.

(Jackson Delgado)

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/business/economy/federal-reserve-minutes.html?ref=economy

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WASHINGTON - The American economy appears to be avoiding the kind of winter swoon that has become an annual event in recent years, a turn for the better that could encourage the Federal Reserve to start raising its benchmark interest rate sooner.

At the Fed's most recent meeting, on Jan. 31 and Feb. 1, "many participants" wanted to increase the benchmark rate "fairly soon" if the economy continued to grow, according to minutes published Wednesday.

But the minutes stopped short of suggesting a rate increase was likely at the Fed's next meeting, in mid-March. They said that a core group of Fed officials remained cautious about the economic outlook, seeing balanced risks of faster and slower economic growth.

"The committee has been quite patient, and I believe that has served us well," Jerome H. Powell, a Fed governor, said in separate remarks on Wednesday. But now, the risks seem more in balance, he said, and "I see it as appropriate to gradually tighten policy as long as the economy continues to behave roughly as expected."

The minutes of the Fed meeting, published after a standard three-week delay, portrayed an economy that appears to be gaining strength, although it is still far from booming. The unemployment rate was little changed in the last year, standing at 4.8 percent in January, even as the economy added an average of 190,000 jobs a month in the second half of 2016, indicating that more people were returning to work.

The minutes also cited "a high level of optimism" among business executives, which was attributed to "the expectation that firms would benefit from possible changes in federal spending, tax and regulatory policy." For the most part, however, companies were still waiting for Washington. Although a few companies had reported increased capital spending, the minutes said that most, "while optimistic, intended to wait for more clarity about federal policy initiatives before adjusting their capital spending and hiring."

Financial markets also remained calm. Things were so quiet that some Fed officials had turned to fretting about the lack of excitement. By some measures, financial conditions are easier now than before the Fed raised its benchmark rate in December.

Some officials worried, the minutes said, that "the low level of implied volatility in equity markets appeared inconsistent with the considerable uncertainty attending the outlook."

The Fed left rates unchanged in February after raising its benchmark rate in December to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent and predicting three rate hikes in 2017. Fed officials at the meeting discussed whether improving conditions warranted faster movement, but "participants generally characterized their economic forecasts and their judgments about monetary policy as little changed since the December meeting," the minutes said.

In recent weeks, investors have assessed the Fed as more likely to raise rates in the first half of the year, although the chances that it will do so at its next meeting, in March, remain low.

"It's not obvious that 'fairly soon' means March," said Samuel D. Coffin, an economist at UBS. He said that the Fed was "growing gradually more confident in its economic expectations" but that there was little sign of urgency in the account of the meeting.

The minutes portrayed some of the 12 presidents of regional reserve banks as increasingly ready to move faster on rates. But the minutes also indicated that the voting members - five governors and five of the presidents - felt less urgency. That core group appeared to remain committed to "gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy."

Patrick T. Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and one of the voters this year, said in a speech Tuesday that his outlook had not changed.

"Given the state of the economy - more or less back to normal - I continue to see three modest rate hikes of 25 basis points each as appropriate for 2017, assuming things stay on track," Mr. Harker said. He added, however, that a March increase remained possible.

One major question is whether the labor force will continue to grow. Some officials see room for stronger economic growth to continue pulling people into the work force: The share of American adults between 25 and 54 who are working or seeking work remains low by historical standards. But other Fed officials contend that the Fed's stimulus campaign has reached its limit. They worry that maintaining low interest rates could drive unemployment down to an unsustainable level and lead to more inflation.

The minutes said the Trump administration's economic plans had injected "considerable uncertainty" into the business of forecasting economic growth. But Fed officials have emphasized that they will wait to see what happens before adjusting their plans.

The Fed also announced a few housekeeping changes, primarily of interest to its close watchers. Fed officials are now prohibited from speaking about monetary policy for 10 days before a policy-making meeting, rather than one week. The Fed also said it would expand the information provided with its quarterly economic forecasts to include an illustration of the uncertainty surrounding the projections.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page B2 of the New York edition with the headline: Some Fed Officials Support Raising Major Rate 'Fairly Soon,' Minutes Say. Order Reprints | Today's Paper | Subscribe

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Some Fed Officials Support Moving Faster to Raise Interest Rate

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WASHINGTON - The American economy appears to be avoiding the kind of winter swoon that has become an annual event in recent years, a turn for the better that could encourage the Federal Reserve to start raising its benchmark interest rate sooner. At the Fed's most recent meeting, on Jan.

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Trump's wrong - Immigrants promote economic growth

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Trump's wrong - Immigrants promote economic growth

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"All in all, most of the research suggests that the fear that immigration will drastically harm native wages and job prospects is by and large unsubstantiated. In fact, much work has shown the labor market is dynamic, and that native workers and employers take measures to evade any competitive forces from immigration."  (Kevin Shih)

"Economists Giovanni Peri and Chad Sparber found that inflows of immigrants – whether low- or high-skilled – induced native workers to shift to jobs that are more complementary in nature and where they have a comparative advantage. This type of shifting also limits the impact on native wages and employment."

This article goes against President Trump in his current policy's against immigration. It explains how immigrants do not affect our job market negatively but in reality flurish the job market. It is thought that the number of jobs is fixed but this is not true. If this was true then there would be less jobs for both immigrants and natives. These immigrants have a comparative advantage in manual labor and low skilled jobs. It is found that immigration does not hurt the economy as much as the consensus argues.

(Brian Katz)

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Immigrants have long been a scapegoat when economies are sputtering, jobs are being lost or security is a concern.

President Donald Trump's planned wall along the Mexican border, for example, is premised on the notion that immigrants are pouring across the border ( they're not), taking Americans' jobs ( they haven't) and committing a disproportionate share of crimes ( they don't).

The presumed threats of immigration were also front and center in Trump's recently announced plan to deport millions of people who were in the U.S. illegally.

We saw something similar when U.K. voters opted for a "Brexit" from the European Union last year, when many British politicians cast immigrants as a threat to the physical, social and economic welfare of natives.

While it has become a popular notion in the West that immigrants jeopardize the job prospects of natives, over 30 years of economic research ( including my own) give strong reason to believe otherwise.

And in fact, the opposite may be more likely: There's evidence immigrants actually promote economic growth.

Why we blame immigrants for our troubles

Extensive reviews of research on the topic ( like this one) show that most studies of how immigration affects native wages and employment found very little effect.

Although economists have yet to arrive at a complete consensus, decades of studies generally do not support the notion that immigration harms the economy, market wages or native employment. So why do so many believe it when research suggests otherwise?

A central issue is that it is easy to think that the labor market is a zero-sum game and the number of jobs available is fixed. If everyone were competing over a finite number of jobs, more immigrants would mean fewer opportunities for natives, and vice versa, right? The reality, however, is much more complex, as I will show. Further, it is simply false to think of the number of jobs as fixed in the first place. Employment has been generally rising since 2010, which means more jobs for everyone.

A new migrant interested in the same job as you may diminish your odds a little, but a single immigrant with a good idea might end up creating hundreds or thousands of jobs that wouldn't have existed had he or she not crossed an ocean or border (the impact of son-of-a-migrant Steve Jobs or South African tech entrepreneur Elon Musk comes to mind).

The labor market is dynamic, and both individual workers and employers constantly readjust to changing conditions. In fact, many economists have found evidence that natives quickly adjust to the labor market forces of immigration and in a way that often yields positive benefits.

Adjusting to immigration

Immigration flows into the U.S. do not affect all sectors equally. Immigrants are highly overrepresented in either very low-skilled manual and labor-intensive jobs or very high-skilled science and engineering occupations.

The types of immigrants who arrive and the areas in which they work are crucial for understanding the impact, and this concentration makes it possible to adjust to it.

In a 2010 study, Dartmouth economist Ethan Lewis found that companies in regions that saw inflows of less-skilled immigrants in recent decades adopted capital machinery at a lower rate.

Another study by Lewis and researchers Michael Clemens and Hannah Postel focused on an effort by the U.S. government in the 1960s to improve labor market conditions for native workers and boost their wages by excluding about a half-million seasonal workers from Mexico (braceros). It had precisely the opposite effect: Instead of raising wages or hiring more locals, farm owners reacted by adopting technologies that required less labor. The owners even switched their crops from ones that were less labor-intensive to ones whose production could be more easily mechanized.

In other words, the ability of businesses to substitute between technology and less-skilled immigrant workers means wages won't necessarily fall when immigration rises. And conversely, this means excluding or limiting immigration won't necessarily lift wages or benefit natives in other ways.

Economists Giovanni Peri and Chad Sparber found that inflows of immigrants - whether low- or high-skilled - induced native workers to shift to jobs that are more complementary in nature and where they have a comparative advantage. This type of shifting also limits the impact on native wages and employment.

For example, natives working in fields receiving large inflows of low-skilled immigrants - who had a comparative advantage in manual and physical labor - moved toward occupations requiring more communication-intensive tasks. They observed a similar phenomenon when high-skilled immigrants with comparative advantages in fields like science and mathematics enter the U.S. labor force. Rather than being laid off, native skilled workers moved to occupations that required more managerial and communication skills.

Just as natives move toward occupations in which they possess a comparative advantage relative to immigrants, they can also move across skill groups by acquiring education. Several economic papers, like ones by Jennifer Hunt and Will Olney and Dan Hickman, found that natives tend to acquire more education following the arrival of less-skilled immigrants. Increases in education benefit the long-term prospects of natives, and means they are no longer competing in the less-skilled labor market.

Growing the economic pie

But beyond simply doing no or little harm to natives, there's evidence immigrants actually benefit the overall economy - which helps everyone.

Recall that immigrants in the U.S. are highly represented in high-skill science and engineering occupations. Economists have long understood that economic growth is generated by innovation, which in turn comes from research and development. A study by Stanford economist Charles Jones found that nearly half of U.S. economic growth since the 1950s is attributable to the increase in the number of scientists and engineers engaged in research and development.

Combine this with the fact that about half of the growth in the number of scientists and engineers in the U.S. since the 1980s was due to immigrants and it is not difficult to understand the connection between skilled immigration and economic prosperity.

In a recent paper, coauthored with Giovanni Peri and Chad Sparber, I formally tested this idea. We examined whether increases in skilled foreign-born scientists and engineers in the U.S. from 1980 to 2010 improved productivity. We found modest gains in real wages for native skilled workers. And no negative impacts on native employment.

Complementing our finding is research by economists William Kerr and William Lincoln, who found that skilled immigrants increase innovation, thereby generating productivity gains for native workers most ready to take advantage of such technological advances.

As long as immigrants continue to innovate and invent, they can continue to boost economic growth.

Who is actually most hurt by immigration

Although most studies don't find adverse impacts on natives, that does not mean they have not found adverse impacts at all. In fact, the group that most commonly appears to be negatively affected by new immigrants are other recent immigrants.

Recent immigrants are the most easily substituted with new immigrants, tend to live and work in the same labor markets that new immigrants enter, often do not have the skills to move toward communication-intensive jobs and face restrictive policies that limit access to higher education. As such, their labor market prospects appear to deteriorate when new immigrants arrive.

Other studies that take a general focus on the labor market and find negative effects have been debated from time to time among academics, however, with little consensus.

A recent paper, however, calls into question many of these negative findings, showing researchers have been using measures of immigration that carry an inherent negative bias. Using correct measures eliminates the negative impact.

Facts are facts

All in all, most of the research suggests that the fear that immigration will drastically harm native wages and job prospects is by and large unsubstantiated. In fact, much work has shown the labor market is dynamic, and that native workers and employers take measures to evade any competitive forces from immigration.

While some pundits and presidential candidates will likely continue to claim immigration is harming our economy, that won't alter the evidence economists have uncovered in study after study. By the same token, claims that immigrants are flooding across our southern border (so we need a giant wall to keep them out) doesn't change the fact that illegal immigration to the U.S. has actually been falling for the past nine years.

Though it is easy to believe that foreigners will overcrowd a frail, zero-sum labor market, decades of research has shown the only thing that sums to zero are the estimated effects of immigration.
This is an updated version of an article originally published on Aug. 21, 2016.
Kevin Shih, Assistant Professor of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

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Trump's wrong - Immigrants promote economic growth

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Immigrants have long been a scapegoat when economies are sputtering, jobs are being lost or security is a concern. President Donald Trump's planned wall along the Mexican border, for example, is premised on the notion that immigrants are pouring across the border ( they're not), taking Americans' jobs ( they haven't) and committing a disproportionate share of crimes ( they don't).

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China’s economic growth will be surprisingly strong, CICC says

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China’s economic growth will be surprisingly strong, CICC says

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"The nation’s nominal GDP rate, which is not adjusted for inflation, may expand 11.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 9.3 per cent thanks to stronger-than-expected investment in infrastructure and real estate, and the yuan may only weaken slightly to stay at 6.98 against the dollar by the end of the year, the research note said."

This article discusses how original estimates for China's economic growth were not quite accurate.  It expected that Trump's trade threats against China would have a greater effect on the nation than later estimates showed.  The original estimates stated that the nation's GDP would slow 0.4% from the previous year's, and that the Yuan would weaken to 7.18 against the US dollar.  However, new estimates suggest that the Yuan will only depreciate by 2%, rather than the expected 5%.  However, any mishandling of money policy would negatively affect China's economy.  (Alyssa Hyman)

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How dominate is the US economy actually?

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How dominate is the US economy actually?

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"the U.S. economy is roughly equivalent to the combined gross domestic products of the eight next-biggest countries after China — Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, India, Italy, Brazil and Canada."
I think this article is very helpful in understanding the magnitude of the US economy compared to the rest of the world. Using numbers and shapes, it is easy to compare how much more GDP the US has than the closest second. The US is the world leader in GDP with $18 trillion while China, which is second, produces only $11 trillion. The US accounts of a quarter of the world GDP which means if there is an issue with the US market than the world market is greatly effected.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-absolute-dominance-of-the-us-economy-in-one-chart-2017-02-22

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While We’re Distracted by the Drama, the Economy Seems to Be Taking Off

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While We’re Distracted by the Drama, the Economy Seems to Be Taking Off

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"The steady flow of improving economic data is a reminder that things are looking pretty good for 2017 if President Trump and Ms. Yellen can avoid messing it up."

According to the NY Times' Neil Irwin, the U.S. economy is in a period of growth amidst high political tensions. People are actually buying more, and the Consumer Price Index's rise of 0.6% reflects this. Irwin, like other analysts, attributes the growth to the winter seasons warm weather, but warm weather isn't great for everyone. Utility companies observed a 0.3% fall all around. All in all, the consensus on the state of the U.S. economy is that it is in fact growing, and now, we just have to wait and see how Trump and the Feds react.

(Jacob Leaf)

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/15/upshot/us-economy-shows-more-signs-of-heating-up.html?action=click&contentCollection=The%20Upshot&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article

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The Mexican peso surges despite Trump threats

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The Mexican peso surges despite Trump threats

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"Trump's threats to potentially slap tariffs on Mexican imports and withdraw from NAFTA helped push the peso down to an all-time low in January. But by mid-January, the peso began gaining value again. A few factors outside of Banxico's contingency plan have also contributed to the peso's recent rise. Investors believe the Federal Reserve may be waiting to hike rates for a few more months -- that's generally good news for developing countries like Mexico. And Trump's cabinet members have recently tried to ease U.S.-Mexico relations, which have been battered by Trump's rhetoric. Some investors believe that's a sign that Trump may not follow through on his most severe threats." (Patrick Gillespie CNN Money 2017)

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/24/news/economy/mexican-peso-rises-in-february/index.html?iid=SF_LN

President Trump has suggested in past months that he would impose higher tariffs on imports from Mexico, which would lower the trade activity between the United States and Mexico. Because of this, many believed the Mexican peso would plummet, as it did in early January. However, because of other factors the Peso's performance has done incredible and has "gained momentum" ever since the drop.

(Lindsey Felner)

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"The impact of Trump’s actions and policies for Latin America will fall mostly on Mexico, given the deeply-integrated trade and business cycle links between the two countries. However, a serious disruption in trade seems unlikely, precisely because of their high level of economic integration. The rest of Latin America doesn’t appear to be on Trump’s radar, but there are risks that protectionist policies could damage some of the region's agricultural exports to the U.S."

Latin American countries are waiting for the impact of Trump's policies on trade and their own GDP growth. There is growing concern for the Mexican government since Mexico and the U.S. are heavy trade partners. There is also a concern for the South American countries, which are big producers of food, and the U.S. is their big client.

(John Fitzpatrick)
"Life's a beach, and you gotta ride the wave that is life"

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FocusEconomics | Economic Forecasts from the World's Leading Economists

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April 18, 2018
Bumpy recovery continues in Q1; Colombia and Paraguay elections expected to yield market-friendly outcomes
The Latin American economy's recovery is expected to have remained on course in the last quarter of 2017 and first months of 2018 as the region puts a tough 2015-2016 firmly in the rearview mirror. A comprehensive estimate revealed that GDP grew 2.0% annually in Q4, which marked the fastest rate of growth since Q1 2014. Moreover, FocusEconomics estimates that GDP expanded 1.9% in the first quarter of 2018, broadly keeping pace. Higher commodities prices, solid global growth and accommodative financial conditions are expected to have supported growth in the region in Q1.

Newly released national accounts data for Argentina revealed that the economy gained steam in the final quarter of 2017, expanding at the fastest pace since Q2 2015. The domestic economy was the engine of growth as declining unemployment boosted household spending, and improving confidence caused investment to surge. Data for Chile showed that the economy ended the year with a bang, fueled by surging investment and healthy private consumption. Uruguay also saw growth pick up speed, amid rising private consumption. Meanwhile, freshly released data for Ecuador shows that growth decelerated in Q4, chiefly due to weaker government expansion. Expenditure-based GDP data for Mexico confirmed that the economy lost momentum as household incomes were eroded by high inflation and rising borrowing costs. In addition, investment continued to decline, weighed down by heightened political noise.

As the region's economic dynamics continue to firm, the crowded political cycle is well underway, and recent developments have been largely positive for the economic outlook. In Colombia, legislative elections on 11 March yielded a victory for market-friendly right and center-right parties, boding well for economic policy going forward. A market-friendly legislature should help ensure the swift passage of economic reforms or act as a balancing act in the face of a non-market friendly president. Consistent with the outcome of the vote, Iván Duque of the Democratic Center party, who has campaigned on a business-friendly platform, is leading in the polls for the 27 May presidential vote.

Paraguay is also gearing up for elections, with a presidential and legislative vote set for 22 April. The front-runners have campaigned on largely market-friendly policies, and the verdict is unlikely to shake the economy from its steady growth path. Meanwhile, the front-runner in Brazil's October vote, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was imprisoned at the beginning of April and has been barred from running. The presidential race in Brazil is now wide open, and at this stage it is difficult to predict if a reform-minded president will be elected.

Venezuela will head to the polls on 22 May, in what is widely regarded to be anything but a free and fair process, and the increasingly authoritarian regime is expected to ensure President Nicolás Maduro will be re-elected.
See the Full FocusEconomics Latin America Report Growth set to firm in 2018
The economy of Latin America is expected to accelerate this year as the region benefits from a favorable external environment, higher commodities prices, low inflation and more accommodative monetary policies. While growth dynamics are stronger than in recent years, the recovery has so far been moderate, and spare capacity continues to linger in the region's major players. Moreover, imbalances are wide, and high fiscal and external deficits threaten to derail the region's growth momentum. This month, the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast for the region was unchanged, and regional GDP is seen growing 2.3% in 2018. In 2019, growth is seen rising to 2.8%.
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This month's outlook for the region is due to stable growth forecasts for 5 of the 11 economies in Latin America, including regional heavyweights Brazil and Mexico. The forecasts for Argentina, Colombia, Peru, U ruguay and Venezuela were all downgraded this month. Despite recent gains made, Argentina's outlook continues to be sober due to high inflation, a widening current account deficit and an elevated fiscal deficit. Moreover, a severe drought is expected to dent economic activity in H1. In contrast, Chile's prospects were revised up, and growth is seen accelerating thanks to a turnaround in investment.

Bolivia and P araguay are expected to be the fastest-growing economies in the region this year, with economic growth of 3.9%. At the other end of the spectrum, Venezuela is seen contracting a significant 8.9%. The country is in the midst of a severe economic and humanitarian crisis due to a scarcity of hard currency, goods shortages, falling oil production and hyperinflation.
BRAZIL | Presidential race blown open after Lula's imprisonment
The economic recovery appears to be strengthening, after growth accelerated in the final quarter of 2017. Business and consumer confidence hit multi-year highs in March, and the manufacturing PMI rose further into expansionary territory in the same month. However, economic slack lingers, and the improvement is expected to be gradual. Retail sales dropped in February, and the rolling three-month unemployment rate rose as well. The focus has shifted to the October election, with the race wide open after the front-runner, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was barred from running. Lula was jailed on 7 April after losing an appeal on a corruption conviction. The field is crowded with potential candidates, and a clearer view will emerge closer to August's deadline for candidate nomination. The incoming president will need to focus on correcting government finances, including implanting the pension reform, to put the economy on a sounder footing and comply with the constitutionally-mandated spending cap. In a vote of confidence, on 9 April, Moody's upgraded Brazil's outlook from negative to stable, stating that it expects new policymakers to approve needed reforms.

Growth should gain traction throughout this year thanks to moderate inflation, lower interest rates and a recovering labor market. A market-friendly outcome from October's elections, is, however, critical to supporting the economy's outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.5% in 2018, unchanged from last month's forecast, and 2.8% in 2019.
See the Full FocusEconomics Latin America Report MEXICO | Activity appears to be on the upswing as presidential vote nears
The economy is gradually regaining traction following an anemic performance in H2 2017. In January, private consumption expanded at a five-month high in annual terms on the back of ebbing inflationary pressures and robust employment growth, while fixed investment rose at its second-highest rate in nearly two years. Likewise, healthy employment growth in February and a marked slowdown in inflation in Q1 should further lift private spending; double-digit capital import growth in the first two months of the year bodes well for capital outlays. A pick-up in investment and another round of successful bidding for multiple oil basins in the Gulf of Mexico are encouraging signs of economic resilience amid a busy political agenda dominated by ongoing NAFTA talks and looming general elections. Official campaigning began in earnest in early April, with left-of-center nationalist candidate López Obrador leading most polls by a double-digit margin.

Dwindling price pressures, firmer credit growth, tight labor conditions and robust remittances should support household consumption this year. Healthy factory output in the U.S. is also expected to buttress manufacturing exports, while incipient signs of a potentially successful renegotiation of NAFTA should benefit fixed investment. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. For 2019, analysts see growth accelerating slightly to 2.3%.
ARGENTINA | Drought and inflation temper economic outlook
GDP growth in annual terms accelerated to a multi-year high in Q4 2017. The expansion came in above market estimates and underscores a domestic economy that is showing signs of recovery, with declining unemployment and robust industrial production. More recent data is positive, suggesting the growth momentum carried over into the first quarter of this year. Economic activity accelerated markedly in January, and industrial output surged in February. However, this positive data contrasts with figures from the external and monetary sectors. The trade balance recorded its fourteenth consecutive month of deficit in February, and a devastating drought in parts of the country throughout Argentina's summer months will hit export-oriented industries. Inflation in Q1 furthermore remained untamed, implying that the external debt burden will continue to grow in the coming months to keep up with elevated public spending.
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The economy is expected to grow at a solid pace this year and next thanks to a sharp expansion in fixed investment and still-strong private consumption. However, a weaker currency and high inflation will weigh on private consumption growth. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 2.6% in 2018, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 3.2%.
COLOMBIA | Duque takes lead in presidential election polls
In 2017, the economy grew at the slowest pace in eight years owing to persistently weak domestic demand. Available data, however, points to a revival in growth at the start of the year, suggesting a turning point for the economy. Retail sales accelerated sharply in January, expanding more than 10-fold in annual terms from December. Moderating inflation, which fell to within the Central Bank's target range for the first time in January 2018 since September 2017 and dropped to the lowest level in three and a half years in March, has bolstered consumers' purchasing power, translating into a turnaround for the retail sector. However, a loss of confidence among consumers in February suggests growth in private consumption weakened slightly in the month. Moreover, exports picked up mildly in January but lost considerable ground in February. Primary run-offs for the upcoming presidential election confirmed Iván Duque, from ex-President Álvaro Uribe's Centro Democrático party, as the main contender on the right, and Gustavo Petro on the left. Duque is currently leading in the polls.

The economy should enter the recovery phase this year, thanks to stronger domestic demand and an upturn in crude oil prices. Moreover, increased oil exploration activities should help boost growth in the medium-term. Dependence on oil, however, leaves the economy exposed to the same external shocks that induced a slowdown in 2015-2016. Investment in the non-oil sector will be crucial to attaining sustainable growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.5% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.
MONETARY SECTOR | Regional inflation drops to nearly five-year low in March
A preliminary estimate for inflation, without considering the current period of hyperinflation in Venezuela, revealed that price pressures dropped in March. FocusEconomics estimates that inflation in Latin America (excluding Venezuela) was 5.3% in March, below February's 5.5% and the lowest print since February 2013. Lower price pressures were seen nearly across the board, with only Bolivia and Colombia recording higher inflation. Pass-through effects from past exchange rate appreciation, along with continued economic slack, is helping tame price pressures.

Low inflation has given central banks in the region room to cut interest rates, although a hiking cycle in the U.S. has caused some policymakers to pause their easing cycles. In recent weeks, policymakers in Colombia and Peru held rates unchanged, while the Central Bank of Brazil continued to cut rates. Meanwhile, Mexico's Central Bank had been defying the regional trend and hiking rates in the face of stubbornly high inflation; however, it paused its hiking cycle in April as inflation has finally begun to fall.

Regional inflation excluding Venezuela is seen remaining moderate this year, coming in at 5.5% at the end of 2018, unchanged from last month's projection. In 2019, inflation is seen ending the year at 4.9%. Venezuela is experiencing an episode of hyperinflation; if we include it in the aggregate, inflation in Latin America is projected to end 2018 at 1,799% and 2019 at 80.1%.
See the Full FocusEconomics Central and Eastern Europe Report Angela Bouzanis
Senior Economist

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Latin America Economic Outlook | Data, Statistics & Forecasts | FocusEconomics

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April 18, 2018 Bumpy recovery continues in Q1; Colombia and Paraguay elections expected to yield market-friendly outcomes The Latin American economy's recovery is expected to have remained on course in the last quarter of 2017 and first months of 2018 as the region puts a tough 2015-2016 firmly in the rearview mirror.

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"The data underscore the U.S. economy’s round trip over the past decade, from a housing bubble to a deep recession to a long and slow recovery." - Josh Zumbrun (WSJ)

Total household wealth in the U.S. has been soaring for the last three quarters, consistently reaching new highs. It is currently at a point of $89.1 trillion. Household wealth is calculated by totalling the values for the nation’s household assets, including homes, stocks, and vehicles, and then subtracting all outstanding debts. Total wealth quickly escalated after the election of Donald Trump, and stocks jumped during the implementation of his pro-business policies. Assets invested into the markets have seen the greatest growth in value and have fully recovered to pre-crash levels in most industries.  However, housing prices have still not been able to rebound to previous points in many cities across the nation. Overall, this gives evidence for an optimistic economic outlook going forward, bullish sentiment on the market, and the light at the end of the tunnel for post-crash recovery. Although there is still a long way to go, investors and homebuyers are demonstrating their new-found confidence. Of course, we must always be cognizant of the possibility of another housing bubble and impending market crash.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-household-wealth-rises-to-record-1474042043

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"When discussing ideal emerging markets in Africa, the most popular tend to be South Africa, Ghana and Morocco. The fact that Rwanda rarely features in spite of all these successes merits describing it as ‘underrated’. This is not to demean the incredible progress achieved by the aforementioned countries, but rather to illustrate how Rwanda needs to be acknowledged more often on the grounds of it being a notable emerging market.

Burundi, for example – Rwanda’s neighbour – as been an example of anything but. Burundi suffers poor leadership, continued political instability economic instability; everything Rwanda has defied. Over the last three years, Burundi has seen growth of about 3.4% on average, whereas Rwanda’s reached 6.5%."

This article is all about Rwanda's rapid economic growth, while still being overlooked. Since its horrific genocide only two decades ago, Rwanda has been trying to "rebrand" itself as a modern nation with strong stable leadership, and strong and stable economy. Rwanda is one of the fastest growing economies in not only Africa, but the world, but because of its history, it's not seen as so. Despite this, in some senses, it is more modern than America. They are investing heavily in infrastructure and renewable energy (currently 59% of Rwanda's energy comes from hydropower, whereas only 14% of America's power comes from renewable sources) in hopes of emerging from a dark history similar to Germany's in the 1940s and becoming a player in the African and global community.
(Johnny Donovan)

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Rwanda has not only exhibited miraculous economic growth since its tragic genocide but also showcases a story of familial recovery. The road map that the government of Rwanda has drawn out for itself is community-inclusive. Thus the development seen in this once ill-fated country is accountable just as much to its people as it is to the government running it.

A service based economy, it delivers with efficiency, using flexible methods and maintaining its authenticity with home-grown solutions. The Government's strategy cultivates a sense of togetherness amidst Rwanda's citizens.

Rwanda: Championing Energy and Technology

Rwanda is a foreign aid-dependent country with a total obligated relief of up to $156m flowing from the United States. Every dollar invested in Rwanda has been used in developing its information, communication and technology sector, and the renewable energy sector.

59% of Rwanda's generation capacity comes from hydropower

Rwanda withholds immense potential in solar and hydroelectric power. The Africa-EU Renewable Energy Cooperation Programme (RECP) states in their findings that hydropower supplies around 59% of current electricity generation capacity at 59.43MV, and has the capability to achieve over 300MV. Scoring renewable energy has been a tough road because 23% of total power gets wasted in transmission.

With regards to the ICT sector, Rwanda's President Paul Kagame has not held back. Rural children are now bred to computer literacy, and tourists in Rwanda have access to the highest level of mobile internet, 4G. These digitally transforming changes have taken place amidst an economic scenario in which individuals earn as low as $696 a year (according to UN data). This is largely because Rwanda's economy is still about 90% agriculture-based.

Internet access has led to a degree of connectivity that helps potential investors look past a landlocked piece of land and the increased cost of doing business there as a result of its lack of sea access.

Open For Business

The key element that differentiates Rwanda from its closest equivalents in Africa is the ease of doing business there, and an improving corruption situation. The procedure to starting up a business in Rwanda is favourable both legally and when considering administrative work. A new business can be formally registered in less than a day.

It has been argued, that this policy could lead to illegitimate businesses being set up. But Rwanda is Africa's third least corrupted country - Kagame's administration operates with zero tolerance on any shady dealings between politicians and businesses.

8% Rwanda's average growth in the decade up to 2015

Poverty may be overshadowing its colossal growth, but Rwanda's vision for the future has not proved to be far-fetched on any grounds, with improvements transpiring every forthcoming year. According to the World Bank, real GDP growth averaged roughly 8% pear year for over a decade in the run-up to 2015.

Apart from pure GDP, socio-economic matters have been dealt with as well. About 64% of Rwanda's MPs are women, one of the many steps taken by the government to diminish gender parity.

An Overlooked African Tiger

When discussing ideal emerging markets in Africa, the most popular tend to be South Africa, Ghana and Morocco. The fact that Rwanda rarely features in spite of all these successes merits describing it as 'underrated'. This is not to demean the incredible progress achieved by the aforementioned countries, but rather to illustrate how Rwanda needs to be acknowledged more often on the grounds of it being a notable emerging market.

Burundi, for example - Rwanda's neighbour - as been an example of anything but. Burundi suffers poor leadership, continued political instability economic instability; everything Rwanda has defied. Over the last three years, Burundi has seen growth of about 3.4% on average, whereas Rwanda's reached 6.5%.

With hard facts supporting its own case, Rwanda has achieved the impossible, going from a genocide-struck war zone to a land of ever-growing development. Dismissed because of its lack of infrastructure and electricity availability, most private investors still fail to see a priceless driving force in Rwanda. With innovation bubbling within its core, this emerging African tiger doesn't have to be the Singapore of Africa, but rather an example of its own.

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Rwanda: An Underrated Emerging Economy - The Market Mogul

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Rwanda has not only exhibited miraculous economic growth since its tragic genocide but also showcases a story of familial recovery. The road map that the government of Rwanda has drawn out for itself is community-inclusive. Thus the development seen in this once ill-fated country is accountable just as much to its people as it is ...

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Ukraine's economy grows by nearly five percent

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Ukraine's economy grows by nearly five percent

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(Vicky Orlin)

"Analysts said it is relatively easy for Ukraine to achieve a short-term economic boom because growth contracted by about 17 percent between 2014 and 2015 when its nearly three-year war with Russian-backed insurgents was at its worst."

Within the article it is explained how between October and December 2016 the GDP in Ukraine has increased to 4.7 percent. Following a two year recession for the country the sudden increase was a shock to many analysts. It is estimated the growth is due to greater demand in housing/ construction, and from the agriculture industry within the nation. It has the ability to expand extremely fast because it is growing from an extremely low base, therefore making it easier. It is predicted that the growth will slow down within the first quarter of 2017 since the agriculture business slows down during the winter months because of the weather.

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World Bulletin / News Desk
Ukraine said Tuesday its economy expanded at a surprisingly fast pace of nearly five percent in the fourth quarter as it continued its steady climb out of a two-year recession.

It provided no other comment.

But analysts said they were taken aback by such a large jump in the war-scarred former Soviet republic.

"I was surprised," Olena Bilan of the Dragon Capital investment company in Kiev said. "My estimate was 3.3 percent."

She attributed the figure primarily to greater housing demand and construction.

"That made up about half the figure -- maybe a little more," she said.

Bilan said other sectors contributing the most were industrial output and consumer demand.

Another factor was agriculture -- a vital industry that once gave Ukraine the nickname "the breadbasket of Europe".

The State Statistics Service did not provide a growth figure for all of 2016 but government officials expect it to be about one percent.

Analysts said it is relatively easy for Ukraine to achieve a short-term economic boom because growth contracted by about 17 percent between 2014 and 2015 when its nearly three-year war with Russian-backed insurgents was at its worst.

This means that it is building from a very low base and that the economy will not continue to grow as quickly going forward. Central bank officials believe any expansion will probably be limited to about two percent in 2017.

Ukraine has undergone some urgent economic restructuring and belt-tightening measures to secure a $17.5-billion (16.5-billion-euro) loan from the International Monetary Fund in 2015.

That money was supported by additional funds from Kiev allies such such as the European Union and the United States.

Unpopular measures like steep hikes for once-subsidised utility bills have drawn periodic street protests.

Pro-Western Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has withstood the pressure and picked a government that could push the IMF's prescriptions through parliament.

But his government has had to move more slowly than the IMF would have liked because of populist and nationalist deputies' resistance to changes that put a burden on the population.

Bilan said growth will slow down in the first quarter of this year because Ukraine's harvest will be taken out of the equation in the January through March stretch.

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Ukraine's economy grows by nearly five percent - World Bulletin

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World Bulletin / News Desk Ukraine said Tuesday its economy expanded at a surprisingly fast pace of nearly five percent in the fourth quarter as it continued its steady climb out of a two-year recession. It provided no other comment. But analysts said they were taken aback by such a large jump in the war-scarred former Soviet republic.

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POLAND'S POPULIST GOVT BRINGS HOPE TO STRUGGLING RURAL AREAS

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POLAND'S POPULIST GOVT BRINGS HOPE TO STRUGGLING RURAL AREAS

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/polands-populist-govt-brings-hope-to-struggling-rural-areas/2017/02/27/34a3df5c-fcde-11e6-9b78-824ccab94435_story.html?utm_term=.cf84c1462e4a

"He and his wife Barbara are among those who voted for the populist Law and Justice party, which won power in 2015 promising to help those left behind by the inequalities of Poland’s free-market era, to protect traditional Catholic values and to rebuild national pride"

This article is about the changing economy in Poland and how it's people hope the most recent change will help them. There was once a communist era that included fuel shortages. There was a capitalist era where some businesses went out of business causing many people to be jobless. There is a new party called the Law and Justice party. It won the election in 2015. The party wanted to decrease the inequalities brought upon in the free market economy. There have been major increases in welfare spending. These increases include free medication for the elderly,  higher pensions, a lower retirement age, a increase in the minimum wage from 10 zlotys ($2.32) per hour to 12 zlotys ($2.79), and cash payments of 500 zlotys ($125) for all second and subsequent children in a family up to the age of 18. There have been protests for about a year, but the majority of people are with the party. Most people are happy with the party because they are keeping their promises of change. The new government spending is helping many people and overall decreasing the wealth gap.
(Ryan Mahoney)

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The Latino Drivers of Economic Growth WSJ

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The Latino Drivers of Economic Growth WSJ

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"Latinos are driving American economic growth, and they are at the core of what I call America’s New Mainstream Economy."

The article was about how President Trump will become the first American president in 28 years without electing a Latino Cabinet member. This is bad since in the recent economy, latinos are the drivers of economic growth. In fact, Latino owned business' grew 46% from 2007-12, while non-latino only grew 2%. In addition, in the last 10 years, the Latino wage has grown almost 200%. In the end, it is necessary for President Trump to reconsider his cabinet picks and elect a Latino since the Latino population is the driving force of our new economy. (ALEJANDRO PEREZ ELORZA)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-latino-drivers-of-economic-growth-1482363118

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Casey Donahue

"But in Asia’s export dynamos, trade is picking up steam. In January, Chinese exports rose year-on-year for the first time in ten months; South Korean shipments have increased for three months in a row. Surveys reveal strong export pipelines in Japan, Singapore and Taiwan. Healthy order books for Asia’s manufacturers normally bode well for global trade and indeed the global economy. It is too soon to declare a definitive upturn in global trade, but it looks like more than a blip "
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21717108-trade-figures-augur-well-global-economy-asias-exports-rebound

The economist highlights recent growth seen in Asia's economy.

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China posts weakest annual economic growth in 26 years

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China posts weakest annual economic growth in 26 years

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(MATT GREENAPPLE)

"The Chinese government had to pull on a series of stimulus levers to keep the economy chugging along in 2016. Public investment in infrastructure skyrocketed and bank lending soared despite repeated warnings about the country's worryingly high level of corporate debt. Economists say that approach can't continue indefinitely. They expect growth to slow further to 6.5% next year".

This article discusses the state of China's economy and its ever decreasing economic growth. Author Jethro Mullen explores  possible factors for the decrease in growth such as many years of false economic data that was provided to the public. Additionally, through interviews with Chinese economists Mullen discovers the economic struggles that China will face in the future. For example, China is taking on huge levels of corporate debt which is a temporary solution that has very negative long term effects. Lastly, Mullen concludes that China has serious work to do on their solution to this situation.

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All in all, most of the research suggests that the fear that immigration will drastically harm native wages and job prospects is by and large unsubstantiated. In fact, much work has shown the labor market is dynamic, and that native workers and employers take measures to evade any competitive forces from immigration.While some pundits and presidential candidates will likely continue to claim immigration is harming our economy, that won’t alter the evidence economists have uncovered in study after study. By the same token, claims that immigrants are flooding across our southern border (so we need a giant wall to keep them out) doesn’t change the fact that illegal immigration to the U.S. has actually been falling for the past nine years.Though it is easy to believe that foreigners will overcrowd a frail, zero-sum labor market, decades of research has shown the only thing that sums to zero are the estimated effects of immigration. --- Kevin Shih(Business Insider, 2017)

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All in all, most of the research suggests that the fear that immigration will drastically harm native wages and job prospects is by and large unsubstantiated. In fact, much work has shown the labor market is dynamic, and that native workers and employers take measures to evade any competitive forces from immigration.While some pundits and presidential candidates will likely continue to claim immigration is harming our economy, that won’t alter the evidence economists have uncovered in study after study. By the same token, claims that immigrants are flooding across our southern border (so we need a giant wall to keep them out) doesn’t change the fact that illegal immigration to the U.S. has actually been falling for the past nine years.Though it is easy to believe that foreigners will overcrowd a frail, zero-sum labor market, decades of research has shown the only thing that sums to zero are the estimated effects of immigration. --- Kevin Shih(Business Insider, 2017)

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Kevin Shih, in his article, explains the fallacy of the belief that immigration harms future economic growth of America. Shih claims that labor markets are constantly shifting, as is our economy. The temporary unemployment people find themselves in and may choose to blame on immigrants is often simply "creative destruction." Illegal immigrants usually fill positions in manual labor, factory, or low-skilled jobs. Shih found that the ability of businesses to substitute between technology and less-skilled immigrant workers wont necessarily fall when immigration rises. This means that if immigration does rise, it doesn't lead to lower wages. Shih also claimed that inflows of immigrants caused native workers to shift to complimentary jobs, where they'd have a competitive advantage. (JERRETT RENDE)
http://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-wrong-immigrants-promote-economic-growth-2017-2

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Chinese GDP Growth Drops to 26-Year Low as Trump Trade War Looms

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Chinese GDP Growth Drops to 26-Year Low as Trump Trade War Looms

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"China's economic growth slowed in 2016 to its softest pace in 26 years, as a possible trade war with the U.S. – spearheaded by President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration – looms. The Chinese economy ended up growing at a 6.8-percent clip in the fourth quarter, bringing the nation's annual GDP growth to 6.7 percent, according to government data published Friday. That's the softest annual expansion China has seen since 1990. But economists met the release with a degree of skepticism. The Chinese government has previously been accused of fudging its growth statistics to maintain public support, and the governor of northeastern China's industrial Liaoning province said this week that falsified growth metrics boosted his province's on-paper performance between 2011 and 2014, according to state media."

Andrew Soergel from US News writes about the GDP growth or lack thereof in China, following Trump's trade plans. While China has been known as one of the largest growing economies in the world, it has been slowly decreasing in growth over the past year. Its national annual GDP growth of 6.7 percent has been the lowest since 1990. This lack of economic growth in such a economically powerful country could mean detrimental effects for the world over.
(FLEUR BYRNE)

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2017-01-20/chinese-gdp-growth-drops-to-26-year-low-as-trump-trade-war-looms

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"If the economy grows just 2.5 percent this year, gross domestic product will reach the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of the nation’s economic potential by the end of the year. If the Trump administration succeeds at achieving the 4 percent growth the president has said he seeks, we’ll be there by the Fourth of July."
"The unemployment rate is the most common measure of slack in the labor market, and it suggests that full employment has very nearly arrived: The 4.8 percent unemployment rate is roughly what Fed officials believe is the long-term rate that won’t provoke inflation, and not far from the 4.4 percent low in the last expansion."
"If officials at the Fed and in the Trump administration try to run the economy a little hot — to keep pursuing faster growth even as the economy gets close to or above potential G.D.P. — it would be a chance to do the reverse, to create a virtuous cycle."
- Neil Irwin NY Times 2017

Neil Irwin, a senior economic correspondent at The New York Times, discusses the feasibility of Trump's plan to double US GDP Growth by 2018. Since there is little true economic slack, Irwin argues that if there is growth it will lead to inflation rather than higher output and incomes. He acknowledges how hard it is to determine potential GDP. He states that it is easy to measure factory capacity utilization which is currently at 75.7% (the same rate as the last 5 years) but nearly impossible to measure how much room for expansion there is in the service sector. Physically, 15.8 percent of all office space is vacant which is a decrease from previous years. He also discusses the idea that America has almost reached its long term unemployment rate. All of these bring up the idea that we will not reach the levels of growth Trump claims to we are able to attain.

(Neal Soni)

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In assessing how close we are (or aren't) to full capacity, it helps to look at America's industrial parks and office complexes. The Federal Reserve watches the industrial sector by measuring what is called factory capacity utilization. American companies were operating factories at 75.7 percent of their potential in January. That's roughly the rate they've been at for the last five years.

Experience suggests it could go higher. In the spring of 2007, the rate was 79.5 percent. It was above 80 percent for the better part of the 1990s.

In other words, the manufacturing sector would seem to have room to produce more stuff even without expanding factory floors or adding equipment. At Caterpillar, the giant maker of heavy equipment based in Peoria, Ill., Jim Umpleby, the chief executive, told analysts last month that, even as it closely managed costs, "we're also preserving capacity for a potential increase in business whenever that comes."

Economic slack is trickier to measure in the service sector; good luck judging whether, say, an insurance company is operating below or at its full potential. But one window into it is the office vacancy rate.

Nationwide, 15.8 percent of office space was vacant in the final months of 2016, according to the real estate information firm Reis. That was down from a recent high of 17.6 percent in 2011 - but could still have room to fall. In the last expansion, it fell as low as 12.5 percent, implying that millions of square feet of offices are sitting idle, ready for white-collar workers to fill them.

"Vacancy has fallen, but there are still some large blocks of space out there," said John Ferguson, president of the Southeast division of the commercial real estate firm CBRE. "A tenant can typically find a short-term solution if they need to, even if it's not perfect for the long term."

One thing to keep an eye on: Development of new office space has been relatively depressed since the 2008 recession, which raises the possibility that the remaining vacant space could be filled up quickly with little new supply arriving to fulfill the demand. Mr. Ferguson sees it in Atlanta, where he is based, and in other Southern cities like Nashville and Charlotte, N.C.

"In the last cycle 10 years ago, there were six new office towers added in Buckhead," Mr. Ferguson said, referring to an affluent Atlanta neighborhood. "In this cycle, there's one."

How Many Are Really 'Missing'?

The biggest factor that will determine how much room the United States economy has to grow is the supply of workers.

The unemployment rate is the most common measure of slack in the labor market, and it suggests that full employment has very nearly arrived: The 4.8 percent unemployment rate is roughly what Fed officials believe is the long-term rate that won't provoke inflation, and not far from the 4.4 percent low in the last expansion.

But there are important wrinkles. Millions of Americans left the labor force entirely in the aftermath of the last recession. And there are "missing" workers, people who do not count as unemployed because they are not looking for a job but might be available to work - and contribute to G.D.P. - if things were rosier.

To people who work on employment issues, there is both good news and bad. "A third to a half of the people on the sidelines, it wouldn't take much to employ tomorrow," said Stefani Pashman, chief executive of Partner4Work, a work force development group in the Pittsburgh area. "The other half are much tougher to employ," often facing challenges from drug use, criminal records and transience.

That would seem to support the idea that there are meaningful numbers of would-be workers out there - but not an unlimited number. The Economic Policy Institute calculates that there are 1.85 million missing workers.

Breaking a Cycle, With Risk

In all these areas, the evidence points to an economy not being quite on the verge of overheating, but also not offering huge potential for growth.

Perhaps the best argument for policy makers to be cautious about putting the brakes on economic growth with rapid Fed interest rate increases is how much we don't know about why growth has been so disappointing over the past several years.

Here's a weighty fact: In 2007, the Congressional Budget Office published long-term projections of potential G.D.P. that assumed the United States would grow around 2.7 percent a year for the ensuing decade. It didn't. Growth in both the labor force and worker productivity underperformed those projections. So the reality we're living in underperforms that theoretical potential by $2.2 trillion, or 14 percent.

One possibility of what went wrong is that the damage of the deep 2008 recession had lasting effects, both pulling some Americans out of the work force and causing businesses to underinvest in innovations. Weak demand for goods and services damaged the capacity of the economy, producing a vicious cycle.

If officials at the Fed and in the Trump administration try to run the economy a little hot - to keep pursuing faster growth even as the economy gets close to or above potential G.D.P. - it would be a chance to do the reverse, to create a virtuous cycle.

Trying it carries risks of its own - of inflation, and perhaps new financial bubbles. The alternative is to take the low-growth world we've been living in as an immutable fact of life, and get used to it.

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The Big Question for the U.S. Economy: How Much Room Is There to Grow?

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In assessing how close we are (or aren't) to full capacity, it helps to look at America's industrial parks and office complexes. The Federal Reserve watches the industrial sector by measuring what is called factory capacity utilization. American companies were operating factories at 75.7 percent of their potential in January.

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Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says

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Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says

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(WOOD)

"Gross domestic product growth would be double its current level under an agenda that cuts regulations across a broad swath of critical sectors, enacts tax reform that slashes personal and corporate taxes, and calls for at least $1 trillion in improvements for bridges, roads and other public projects.
This policy mix has the potential of reigniting productivity growth and raising U.S. growth potential," David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a report for clients. "While Trump introduces higher uncertainty, this is better than the near certainty of the continuation of a mediocre status quo.

One of the broad keys for the Trump economy will be a shift from one that relies on aggressive monetary policy — zero interest rates, trillions in Fed money-printing — to fiscal policies focused on more broad-based growth that will stretch from Wall Street to Main Street. Though Obama's GDP numbers were pedestrian, the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 jumped more than 240 percent during his time in office.
This policy will be successful in moving the U.S. economy away from low-growth secular stagnation towards significantly more buoyant performance," Folkerts-Landau said. "We would not be taken by surprise by a doubling of the growth rate of real GDP in the U.S. over the next two years, nor by a further significant move up of equity valuations and a material further appreciation of the dollar."

It is clear that the president's policies are pro-growth, pro-small business, and pro-job creation and there is no doubt that these policies will improve living standards for all americans. The president wants free trade, however he wants fair trade. This means leveling the global economic playing field.

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President-elect Donald Trump's policies have the potential to trigger a new age in U.S. economic growth that could serve as a global template, according to a Deutsche Bank forecast.

Gross domestic product growth would be double its current level under an agenda that cuts regulations across a broad swath of critical sectors, enacts tax reform that slashes personal and corporate taxes, and calls for at least $1 trillion in improvements for bridges, roads and other public projects.

"This policy mix has the potential of reigniting productivity growth and raising U.S. growth potential," David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a report for clients. "While Trump introduces higher uncertainty, this is better than the near certainty of the continuation of a mediocre status quo."

The impact may not be felt immediately, but once the new agenda kicks in it will serve as a "game changer for the U.S. economy," Folkerts-Landau added.

In raw numbers, that would push 2017 growth to 2.4 percent and 2018 up to 3.6 percent. By way of comparison, the economy has grown an average of about 1.6 percent a year under President Barack Obama, the worst recovery since the Great Depression. Obama is the first president since Herbert Hoover not to see at least 3 percent growth for a calendar year.

U.S. growth will bleed into the world economy, according to Deutsche, which pushed its 2017 global GDP forecast from 3 percent to 3.4 percent.

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Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says

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President-elect Donald Trump's policies have the potential to trigger a new age in U.S. economic growth that could serve as a global template, according to a Deutsche Bank forecast.

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As we begin to explore macroeconomic growth and changes in national wealth, we are going to be looking at various perspectives, reports, and articles on this issue.  You may choose to look at something in the United States (see below with Mr. Coyne's example) or something on the global scale.  Please follow the template below and make sure to include your name for credit.

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As we begin to explore macroeconomic growth and changes in national wealth, we are going to be looking at various perspectives, reports, and articles on this issue.  You may choose to look at something in the United States (see below with Mr. Coyne's example) or something on the global scale.  Please follow the template below and make sure to include your name for credit.

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Every story must be unique (no repeats).  Once you have selected the story, read or listen to it, and select the best quote that summarizes the argument that is being presented.  Then write a one paragraph summary of that article and how it corresponds to economic growth and/or national wealth, this week's theme.

Lastly, you must respond to one other story by another student (see comment abilities below).  You may follow-up on their perspectives or you may challenge their thinking.  As always, be diplomatic in your discourse.  If someone does respond to your prompt, it is your obligation to then respond to that person's comments on your piece.

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"In a lot of ways, intergenerational poverty is something that they inherited and that they've lived with as part of a family tradition. I think part of that means they've grown up with a certain resentment at rich people. But it also means that, for them, the upward mobility that a lot of folks experienced right after World War II was their first real taste of economic optimism, and I think that's something that really gave them a lot of hope. And ultimately, as I write later in the book, that hope didn't really materialize." --- JD Vance (NPR, 2016)

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"In a lot of ways, intergenerational poverty is something that they inherited and that they've lived with as part of a family tradition. I think part of that means they've grown up with a certain resentment at rich people. But it also means that, for them, the upward mobility that a lot of folks experienced right after World War II was their first real taste of economic optimism, and I think that's something that really gave them a lot of hope. And ultimately, as I write later in the book, that hope didn't really materialize." --- JD Vance (NPR, 2016)

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Mr. Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy, explores the current economic plight of Americans in the Rust Belt, particularly through his family's experiences in West Virginia. An interesting component of his interview with Terry Gross was his understanding that many Americans truly believed in the American Dream after World War II. Yet, for many Americans, the economic prosperity that came to areas like Fairfield County (Westport, Darien, or Greenwich) never materialized because of a rapidly transforming economy, academic opportunities, and migration away. In sum, while economic growth is quite apparent in our own community, the effects are not universal for the United States - let alone the global macroeconomic economy. (DREW COYNE)

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TERRY GROSS, HOST:

This is FRESH AIR. I'm Terry Gross. My guest, J.D. Vance, is the author of the new best-seller "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir Of A Family And Culture In Crisis." He says the book is about what goes on in the lives of real people when the industrial economy goes south. He writes about the social isolation, poverty, drug use and the religious and political changes in his family and in greater Appalachia. He grew up in a Rust Belt town in Ohio in a family from the hills of eastern Kentucky. Until the age of 12, he spent summers in Jackson, Ky., with his grandmother and great-grandmother. Vance joined the Marines, which helped him afford college. After attending Ohio State University, he went to Yale Law School where he initially felt completely out of place. He has contributed to the National Review and is now a principal at a Silicon Valley investment firm.

J.D. Vance, welcome to FRESH AIR. There's a paragraph from your new book that I want you to read. It's on Page 2.

J D VANCE: There is an ethnic component lurking in the background of my story. In our race-conscious society, our vocabulary often extends no further than the color of someone's skin - black people, Asians, white privilege. Sometimes these broad categories are useful. But to understand my story, you have to delve into the details.

I may be white, but I do not identify with the WASPs of the Northeast. Instead, I identify with the millions of working-class white Americans of Scots-Irish descent who have no college degree. To these folks, poverty's the family tradition. Their ancestors were day laborers in the southern slave economy, sharecroppers after that, coal miners after that, and machinists and mill workers during more recent times. Americans call them hillbillies, rednecks or white trash. I call them neighbors, friends and family.

GROSS: Thanks for reading that. There's, you know, the line where you make a point of saying that your people were day laborers in the slave economy of the South. Reading between the lines there...

VANCE: Sure.

GROSS: ...What are you saying about class and race with that statement?

VANCE: Well, I guess, I'm not trying to say anything too explicit about race, but to note that poverty just goes back really, really far in the generational stories of these families. So the point I'm trying to make, ultimately, is that these folks have been poor for a very long time. In a lot of ways, intergenerational poverty is something that they inherited and that they've lived with as part of a family tradition. I think part of that means they've grown up with a certain resentment at rich people. But it also means that, for them, the upward mobility that a lot of folks experienced right after World War II was their first real taste of economic optimism, and I think that's something that really gave them a lot of hope. And ultimately, as I write later in the book, that hope didn't really materialize.

GROSS: You know, reading your book, I get the impression that you think - and I think rightfully so - that there's a lot of similarities between what poor people who are white endure in America and what poor people who are black endure in America. Sure, there's differences, too, but there's a lot of things in common. Yet, I'm wondering if you and the people who you grew up with made that connection at all and felt any sense of identification with black people who were your class counterparts.

VANCE: I never thought when I was a kid that there was a sense of competition or animosity towards poor blacks. I just thought there was a recognition that they lived differently - they primarily lived on the other side of town. And we're both poor, but that's kind of it. There wasn't much explicit statement of kinship or of the lack of kinship. Though, I will say there was one really interesting experience I had with my grandma where I started to realize that there was some sort of kinship at least that she felt. And I think I was very lucky to have that exposure to a woman who had lived the life she had but was able to think these thoughts. And what happened is that we were watching a golf tournament. And it was, I believe, the 1997 Masters, where Tiger Woods won.

I was a very young kid, maybe 19 or 20, and the only reason my grandma was watching it was because he was in it. She loved Tiger Woods. And the reason she liked Tiger Woods is because she saw him as an outsider that was shaking up a rich man's game. And there was this really interesting moment where after he won - and the Masters always has this ceremonial winner's dinner to celebrate the victor. One of the golfers said something to the effect of, what are we going to have at the winner's dinner - fried chicken and watermelon, which, of course, was this extraordinarily nasty racist comment.

But it struck me at that moment, one, that that fried chicken and watermelon was almost the cultural food of my people, and my grandma just got so viscerally angry. And she said, those a-holes, they're never going to let people like us be part of their crowd. And the sense that she had was they both looked down on the black people who were outsiders and the poor, white people who are outsiders. And she really saw the similarities. And that was the first real exposure that she felt some sort of kinship to people who looked very different from her but ultimately were similar in a lot of ways.

GROSS: Your family is from Jackson, Ky. And your grandparents moved to southwestern Ohio after that. But you spent a lot of time in Jackson growing up. Would you describe what that community was like physically and also just what it was like as a community?

VANCE: Jackson, Ky., is in southeastern Kentucky coal country. And it's this extraordinarily beautiful part of the Appalachian Mountains - pretty big hills, pretty severe, harsh landscape, but also just a very beautiful town with very beautiful people. It's about 6,000 people. There are only a couple of stoplights in town. There are maybe a few restaurants, most of them are fast-food restaurants. And the people are these extraordinarily sweet people who love the land and also love the people that they grew up around.

And when I was a kid, the first time I realized that there was something really unique about Jackson and its people, as I write in the book - there was a funeral motorcade passing by. And my grandma said, we have to get out. We have to stand at attention. And I said, you know, why, Mamaw (ph)? Why are we all doing this? Why does everybody stop and stand at attention when a funeral motorcade passes? And she said because, honey, we're hill people, and we respect our dead. And it made me realize that there was something very important about this identity of hill people that both my grandma and the rest of Jacksonians took on as a certain, you know, as a certain self-identifier.

GROSS: So you write that you consider your family part of a greater migration from Appalachia to Ohio. What is that period of migration that you're writing about? What is that larger wave that you feel your family is part of?

VANCE: So there were two big waves of migration - one right after World War I, the second right after World War II. And my grandparents were part of that second wave where literally millions of people moved from the hills of eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, eastern Tennessee into southern Ohio, into Michigan, into northern Ohio, Pennsylvania and so forth. And in many ways, the white part of the Rust Belt economy was really filled with these Appalachian migrants. There are various studies that suggest that at any given time, at least 30 percent of the population of some of these Rust Belt counties were directly from Appalachia. And of course, that doesn't count that the kids and grandchildren of the Appalachian migrants.

And so there was this sense, in southern Ohio especially - we called our hometown of Middletown Middletucky (ph) because so many of the residents actually came from Kentucky. There was a massive family-based recruiting program that brought migrants from eastern Kentucky into the southern Ohio steel mill where my grandpa worked. So it was this massive transplantation of one culture and one group of people into an entirely different area. And a lot of times, of course, they kept the culture, and they kept a lot of their habits with them when they moved.

GROSS: Yes. You write that a lot of the people who move from Appalachia to Ohio kept the culture. But your grandparents, you say, brought an ancient family structure from the hills and tried to make it work in a world of privacy and nuclear families, and it didn't quite fit. Would you explain?

VANCE: Sure. So in Appalachia, in eastern Kentucky, these families are extraordinarily large. And they're built on an extended network of kin. So grandparents, parents, aunts, uncles, cousins - they're all a part of the mix. And they all, ultimately, I think, are involved in family life in a way that's a little bit different from upper-income white people from the Northeast, for example.

And what I think my grandparents found when they moved north is that they didn't have quite that extended network of kin that so many of their people back in eastern Kentucky depended upon. So there was no grandma or grandpa to look after the kids. There wasn't help from aunts and uncles.

And I think my grandparents really struggled in a lot of ways without that big, extended family network that they had become so dependent upon and so reliant upon. It's really sad in a lot of ways because I think - you know, this is a slight aside.

But a lot of the modern social welfare state is built around a nuclear family. So when a kid enters a foster care system, for example, they're presented with an opportunity to go live with a licensed foster care parent or to stay with their parent, who's potentially abusive or neglectful. That's why they're in that situation in the first place.

And a lot of times, these child welfare bureaucracies ignore these extended networks of kin that are really important to these children's lives. And so that's one of the things I found when I was a kid - is that I wasn't really given an opportunity by the child welfare worker to go and live with mamaw and papaw, which is what I wanted to do.

What I was given - an opportunity was to either shut up or to go live with a complete stranger. And so it's not just that my grandparents, I think, were culturally disconnected from the modern WASPy nuclear family. But in a lot of ways, the broader community of Appalachians was thrust into a world that respected a different family structure than the one they came from.

GROSS: Why were you almost put in a foster home when you were 12 years old?

VANCE: So what happened is my mom, who was, in a lot of ways, this really wonderful person who tried very hard but also carried around the demons of her youth a little too much - she had come over to my grandma's house where I was staying. She had apologized for something she had done earlier. And she had offered to take me on this trip to go and do some fun things.

And it was supposed to be a big makeup trip. But what happened is that something ignited her temper while we were together. She sped up the car on the highway. Went over - you know, it seemed at the time like she was driving over 100 mph. And she just kept on saying, I'm going to crash this car and kill us both. I'm going to crash this car and kill us both.

And so what I did is hopped in the backseat to hide from her. And this got her really angry. And she stopped the car and pulled over and, I think, was going to start hitting me. And so I ran. I ran out of the car. We were in a pretty rural part of the state. And I actually ran through a field to a person's house.

And eventually, this set in chain a set of events where mom was arrested. She was charged with domestic violence. And I was made to sit in a police car until my grandparents and my sister came to rescue me. But that's what invited the child welfare bureaucracy into our lives - is that as soon as she was charged with domestic violence, it became a case of child abuse and neglect.

And I was effectively given a choice between - keep talking, and we're going to have to file charges, and we're going to have to take you out of the home - on the one hand. Or if you just keep quiet about things, then you can stay living with your family. And that was, of course, a pretty hard decision for a 12-year-old.

But luckily, I had enough faith in my grandma. I knew that she wouldn't let anything too bad happen to me. And so I lied to the people who asked whether something bad had happened. I remember my mom had a domestic violence hearing. And the judge asked whether she had done anything to threaten me. And I lied. I told him no because I knew that if I kept on pushing the case, one, it would cause a lot of problems for the family. And two, it might land me in a foster home.

GROSS: How did you feel about lying? You're always taught not to lie. And here you are at a hearing, lying. And you think it's for your good and your family's good. Nevertheless, it's a lie.

VANCE: The honest truth is that I didn't care at all about lying because I remember sitting in that courtroom and feeling in some ways that I was on the wrong side of an invisible line because the lawyers and the judge - they all talked a certain way. They all wore certain clothes. And I felt like they were outsiders.

They were the people that I was taught, in some way, to mistrust and to fear. They were rich people - whether they were actually rich - they seemed rich to me. And I noticed that in this little courtroom, all of the people who were subjected to the court system were like me. They were white people. They didn't wear that nice of clothes.

They were obviously very poor, both in the way that they talked and the way that they conducted themselves. And when I was asked to lie to that judge, frankly, I didn't feel bad at all because I knew that it was something that was necessary to protect my family and to protect myself.

And it's really interesting, looking back, that I didn't, you know - I'm a member of the bar now - that I didn't feel at all guilty about lying to a judge. And a big part of it is just because I felt like - look, my people are here. And they're being subjected to this system. These people are over there. And they're administering this system. And it's fine to tell a little white lie to them. And that's, of course, a little ironic because I was there, theoretically, because of my own protection.

But it was pretty clear to me, both in my exposure to the courthouse and my exposure to the child welfare bureaucracy, that the folks who were involved in our lives were outsiders. And what was most important was to push them out as quickly as possible.

GROSS: If you're just joining us, my guest is J.D. Vance. He's the author of the new best-selling memoir "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir Of A Family And A Culture In Crisis." Let's take a short break. And we'll be right back. This is FRESH AIR.

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GROSS: This is FRESH AIR. And if you're just joining us, my guest is J.D. Vance, author of the new best-selling memoir "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir Of A Family And Culture In Crisis." And his family is from Kentucky and moved to Ohio. His grandparents moved to Ohio to a steel town there - what he calls now a Rust Belt town. So this is the story about his family and the larger story of Appalachian poverty.

Your grandfather was an alcoholic for many years. Your mother was addicted to various drugs for many years. And the way you describe it in your book, it sounds like both the area of Ohio where your family lived in and the area of Kentucky where they're from ended up having a lot of alcohol and drug problems there - drugs including heroin and opioids.

VANCE: That's absolutely right. And it's maybe even worse in southern Ohio than it is in eastern Kentucky, though it's certainly terrible in both. I saw a statistic a few weeks ago that in the Ohio county where I grew up, Butler County, deaths from drug overdoses actually outnumber deaths from natural causes. And that's just an extraordinary statistic. I don't know that that's ever been true in that area. It certainly hasn't been true in recent history.

And it goes to show how really rooted this opioid epidemic is. It's something that everyone thinks about and talks about. You see signs about support groups whenever you go back to these areas. And it's just an extraordinarily terrible thing that's happened to these communities. And I'm not sure that there's a super easy solution for how to get out of it.

GROSS: Do you feel like you saw it start to happen and then build?

VANCE: Absolutely. I definitely - in a lot of ways, I was at the ground floor of the opioid epidemic because I saw it happening with my mom before it had really reached crisis proportions. But in a lot of ways, she was just responding to the things that cause people to go and search for drugs in the first place.

She was a person, I think, who carried around a lot of emotional baggage, a lot of emotional turmoil and hurt from her own childhood. And so she turned to drugs. But a lot of people have done the same, of course, in the past five or 10 years, which is why these addiction rates - which is why these overdose rates are so high in these communities.

GROSS: What was your attitude towards drinking and drugs when you were growing up and seeing how it affected your grandfather, seeing how it affected your mother?

VANCE: Well, growing up as a young child, I think that I had attitudes pretty similar to a lot of kids, which is just, say no to drugs. These things are bad for you. They're immoral and so forth. But as I grew older, I started to be attracted, frankly, to the kids who were doing drugs, to the possibility of having a bit of an escape from a very chaotic and very troubling home life.

And so by the time I was 13 or 14, I was hanging out with kids who were doing drugs. And I was even starting to experiment myself. And it's funny that my grandma - she was so perceptive that she recognized that I was starting to do these things and that they were becoming a problem, I think, much earlier than a lot of kids' parents would have.

GROSS: What did she do when she realized it?

VANCE: (Laughter) Well, the first time she realized that I was hanging out with the wrong kids, she actually told me in a very menacing voice, look J.D., I'll give you a choice. You can either stop hanging out with these kids, or I'll run them over with my car.

GROSS: (Laughter).

VANCE: And trust me, no one will ever find out. And I don't think she would've actually run over 12 or 13-year-old kids with her car. But I sure thought she would. And so I actually did stop hanging out with the kids she told me I couldn't hang out with. A lot of kids don't listen to that demand when their parents make it. But I was so terrified of mamaw that I listened and listened good.

GROSS: I'm just thinking about the violence in your family. Your mother threatened to crash the car to kill both of you. You thought she might actually attack you. Your grandmother threatened to, like, run down the guys you were hanging out with. And you believed that she had it in her to do that.

Your mother was always - sounds like she was always arguing - and I mean, like, fighting, arguing with her husband - she had several of them - and her boyfriends. It seems to me you grew up in an atmosphere where violence was always a possibility, even among people who are supposed to love each other.

VANCE: That's absolutely true. Violence and chaos were an ever present part of the world that I grew up in. And unfortunately, it wasn't just in my family. Sometimes, you'd see, you know, mom fighting with one of her boyfriends. But a lot of times, you'd see people exploding on each other in a local restaurant or on the street. It was just this ever present part of the world that I grew up in.

And it's interesting that all of the people that I talk about in my book that grew up in this chaos that ended up having successful home lives and successful marriages - they married an outsider.

They married someone like I did who didn't grow up with these lessons, who didn't grow up with these experiences, and because of that, knew how to manage the people that they were married to and knew how to not respond in kind. As I write in the book, you put two of me in the same marriage, and I don't think it works.

But you put one of me, who's maybe a little self-reflective, in a marriage with somebody who hasn't faced that trauma - then I think you have a good chance. And that's one of the lessons of my life.

GROSS: My guest is J.D. Vance, author of the new book "Hillbilly Elegy." After we take a short break, we'll talk about what the conversation is like with family and friends when the subject turns to Donald Trump. And Ken Tucker will review the new album by the bluegrass group The Earls of Leicester, which pays tribute to Earl Flatt and Lester Scruggs. I'm Terry Gross. And this is FRESH AIR.

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GROSS: This is FRESH AIR. I'm Terry Gross, back with J.D. Vance, author of the new best-seller "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir Of A Family And Culture In Crisis." He writes about the social isolation, poverty and religious and political changes in his family and in greater Appalachia. He grew up in a Rust Belt town in Ohio in a family from the hills of eastern Kentucky, where he spent summers when he was a boy.

Christianity was a presence in your life. But you say church wasn't that important. Your grandmother had a deeply personal faith. But she saw churches as breeding grounds for perverts and money changers. So what was the gap between faith and church?

VANCE: Absolutely. That was a really important part of my life. And so my grand - my - you know, Mamaw taught a very personal faith. She really loved the Christian faith. She loved God, and that was an important part of her life. But she was disconnected from a traditional religious institution. And it's interesting that we hear so much about how religion and evangelical faith is really important in these communities. But if you actually look at the statistics, lower-income Americans are increasingly less likely to go to church. So church is increasingly the province of upper-income and well-educated folks, despite a lot of the stereotypes that exist around religion.

The problem, of course, is that children who go to church, they are less likely to commit crimes, less likely to do drugs. And there's some really good evidence by MIT economist Jonathan Gruber that this relationship is causal. So in this world where a lot of things are falling apart, church can be a really important backstop, but less and less people are going to church. And that was certainly something that was true in my life.

GROSS: Your grandparents were both religious. They were deeply Christian. Why didn't they go to church?

VANCE: So there were a couple of reasons, I think. So one is that Mamaw just mistrusted a lot of the parts of institutional Christianity as she saw it. She saw that people were primarily asking for money and weren't actually that interested in the faith. And the other side of it - and I think that this is related - is that Mamaw saw church as increasingly an upper-crust institution.

There were a lot of churches in Middletown, Ohio, but there weren't a lot of churches in the very poor, white communities. They were typically in the wealthier suburbs. They were typically in the better-educated suburbs, the parts of Middletown where people were doing a little bit better off. And in some ways, I think Mamaw's approach to church was a leading indicator of what we're seeing a lot these days, which is that lower-income folks don't feel as comfortable in church and don't have as much exposure to church.

GROSS: Your father, who you lived with very briefly, was one of the few conservative Protestants you knew who attended church regularly. And when you briefly lived with him, you went to his church. And you were exposed to things like not believing in evolution. You say there was a big emphasis on the war against Christmas, as it's called (laughter), remarks about the gay lobby.

VANCE: Sure.

GROSS: So how did you how did you interpret that when you were exposed to - are those ideas that - like, did your grandmother not talk about the gay lobby? Was that not a part of her Christian view?

VANCE: No, she definitely didn't. And I think that was a big part of the modern fusion of conservative politics and evangelical Christianity. And because she was not part of a modern church, I don't think she ever picked up the rhetoric, some of the more political rhetoric of conservative Christianity. The juxtaposition between my dad's church's social importance and its teachings is really fascinating to me.

So on the one hand, my dad's church provided a lot of moral pressure, a good community of believers that really supported me and supported him. And that was really important, and it was really great, full of the best people, honestly, that I've ever known. But on the other hand, there was this sense that the outside world was starting to gang up on Christians. There was - you know, evolution was a lie that the devil told to get Christians to believe in modern science. There was a feeling that the gay lobby was making it more and more difficult for Christians to live their lives or to practice their faith - that it was impossible to speak your faith in the public square.

And all of this stuff taken together really meant that we felt isolated from the larger community. To be a Christian, in a lot of ways, meant to feel a certain mistrust for the broader community. And that has really problematic consequences because I needed church. I needed a lot of the good things that church provided. But as I grew older, it became increasingly hard for me to rationalize the importance of church in my life with the beliefs that it required that were at odds with modern science.

GROSS: Did you ever subscribe to those beliefs that are at odds with modern science or subscribe to the homophobia that you were taught in church?

VANCE: Absolutely. I used to go on chat rooms on AOL, back when those things existed, and argue with believers in evolution and argued with them that it was against God's law to believe in evolution. It was something I believed really personally. But as you grow up and you're exposed to more and more people from different walks of life and you realize that evolution is just a scientific truth - it doesn't necessarily have much to do with the Bible one way or the other - you start to realize that there are real conflicts in your church. And it makes it hard to believe that you can be a good Christian if you don't necessarily believe the teachings, all the way, of the church.

So it creates this conflict in people where you want to believe in modern science, but you also want to be a good Christian. And a lot of people can't do both at the same time in a very politicized, very conservative sort of Christianity.

GROSS: You read the "Left Behind" books when you were a teenager. And those are books - those are novels written by, you know, a Christian fundamentalist who - and the novels are about the rapture and about the tribulations after the good Christians are raised up to heaven and everybody else is left behind. As I recall, the devil, in at least the first installment of the "Left Behind" books, the great Satan is the head of the United Nations. So...

VANCE: (Laughter).

GROSS: ...Like, did you buy into that?

VANCE: That's exactly right. And I even remember, as a kid, wondering if Kofi Annan might be the Antichrist because he was then the secretary-general of the United Nations, when those books came out. But it's part-and-parcel of this idea that there's a war against Christians, this sense that the world is hopelessly corrupt, that institutions like the United Nations are going to produce the Antichrist. And when you are exposed to that sort of message, it is hard to simultaneously be a Christian but also engage meaningfully with the modern world.

GROSS: You really thought Kofi Annan might be the the great Satan?

VANCE: I was 12 years old, and it definitely crossed my mind. We would sit around and talk about where - you know, where is the Antichrist going to come from? Maybe it's Kofi Annan. Maybe it's - you know, it was definitely a conversation that we had. And of course, I don't know many secretary-generals of the United Nations. But I remember Kofi Annan because he was such a prominent part of my thinking when I was that age because yeah, I did think maybe this guy could be the Antichrist.

GROSS: I always wonder what impact thinking that the rapture is about to happen has on a child growing up because, on the one hand, if it's going to be the end of the world, like, why not do whatever you want? You know, like, why not get the instant gratification while the world still lasts, right? But on the other hand, if you do the wrong thing, you're not going to be raptured and you're going to be left behind to face the tribulation. So, you know, you're facing, like, two extreme choices there because you believe in an extreme and an immediate extreme.

VANCE: Yeah, that's absolutely right. And what's interesting about it is that you don't prepare for a material future when you think that you're going to be raptured. I had a friend who, no kidding, said he was going to take on as much debt as he wanted in college because he thought the rapture would happen before he had to pay it back. And, of course, that's not a really good way to go through life, if you're trying to live an upwardly mobile American life, is to think that, on the one hand, you need to be a good Christian and worry about how you're going to live your life - that's very important - but on the other hand, you can make as many terrible financial decisions as you want to because you'll never have to face the consequences of them.

GROSS: If you're just joining us, my guest is J.D. Vance. He's the author of the new memoir "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir Of A Family And Culture In Crisis." Let's take another short break and then we'll be back. This is FRESH AIR.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

GROSS: This is FRESH AIR, and if you're just joining us, my guest is J.D. Vance, author of the new book "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir Of A Family And Culture In Crisis." He writes about the social isolation, poverty, drug use, as well as religious and political changes in his family and in Greater Appalachia.

You describe yourself as conservative, and you've written for The National Review, a conservative magazine. You've become kind of famous for an article or two in which you try to explain why, you know, a lot of poor people would be voting for Trump. And in your writing and in your discussions, you've called Trump's promises the needle in America's collective vein. You've described Trump as the new pain reliever, trying to make comparisons between, you know, narcotisizing (ph) pain and what Trump is trying to do in explaining things away, easy solutions. Do you know a lot of people who are going to be voting for Trump or - yeah.

VANCE: I do. A lot of people in my family are going to be voting for Trump, a lot of my neighbors and friends from back home. So it's definitely a phenomenon I, I think, recognize and frankly saw coming pretty early. You know, it's interesting that I don't think the Trump phenomenon is exclusively about the white poor.

I think that it's more about the white working-class folks who aren't necessarily economically destitute but in some ways feel very culturally isolated and very pessimistic about the future. That's one of the biggest predictors of whether someone will support Donald Trump - it may be the biggest predictor - is the belief that America is headed in the wrong direction, the belief that your kids are not going to have a better life than you did.

And that cynicism really breeds frustration at political elites, but, frankly, that frustration needs to find a better outlet than Donald Trump. And that's why I've made some of the analogies that I have because I don't think that he's going to make the problem better. I think, like you said, he is in some ways a pain reliever. He's someone who makes people feel a little bit better about their problems. But whether he's elected president or not, those problems are still going to be there, and we've got to recognize that.

GROSS: So when you're having a discussion about the presidential race with someone in your family, someone who's going to be voting for Trump, what is that conversation like?

VANCE: It typically starts with me making a point that I just made, which is, look, maybe Trump is recognizing some legitimate problems. He's talking about the opioid epidemic in a way that nobody else is. But he's not going to fix the problem. You know, better trade deals is not going to make all of these problems just go away.

And typically my family actually recognizes that. That's what I find so interesting. They don't think that this guy is going to solve all their problems. They just think he's at least trying and he's saying things, primarily to the elites, that they wish they could say themselves. So it's really interesting. There's a recognition that Trump isn't going to solve a lot of these problems, but he's, at the end of the day, the only person really trying to tap into this frustration.

And it's, you know, I - so my dad is a Trump supporter, and I love my dad, and I always say, Dad, you know, Trump is not going to actually make any of these problems better. And he says, well, that's probably true, but at least he's talking about them and nobody else is and at least he's not Mitt Romney. At least he's not George W. Bush. He's at least trying to talk about these problems.

And I think it's amazing how low the bar has been set by the political conversation we've had for the past 20 or 30 years that this guy, who many people don't think is going to solve the problems, is still getting a lot of support from people who are blue-collar white folks.

GROSS: I think a lot of people are mystified that working-class people would find anything to relate to in somebody whose accent might sound working class but was born into wealth and has, you know, is a billionaire if you, you know, listen to what he says about his net worth and who has, you know, like, you know, gold all over his many properties. I mean, there's - he's - it's such an extravagantly flaunting it rich lifestyle that he leads. Like, it's always a little hard to understand why somebody who so strongly identifies as working class would think that somehow he'd be able to best represent their interests.

VANCE: I certainly understand why a lot of folks are surprised. I think a big part of it is just the way that Donald Trump conducts himself. A lot of people feel that you can't trust anything Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama say, not because they necessarily lied a lot but because they sound so filtered and they sound so rehearsed. Donald Trump, if nothing else, is relatable to the average working-class American because he speaks off the cuff. He's clearly unfiltered and unrehearsed.

And there is something relatable about that, even if, you know, half of the things that he says don't make any sense or a quarter of the things that he says are offensive. There's something to be said about relatability. And it's not, you know - there's been a lot written about how elite political conversation is not emotionally relatable to big chunks of the country. I think that in a lot of ways, Trump is just the first person to tap into that sense of disconnect in the way that he conducts himself with politics.

GROSS: So, as a conservative who thinks that Trump does not have the answers and isn't qualified to be president...

VANCE: Sure.

GROSS: ...What are you going to do this election, if you don't mind saying?

VANCE: My current plan is to vote either third party or, as I joked to my wife, I might write in my dog because that's about as good as it seems. But, you know, I think there's a chance, if I feel like Trump has a really good chance of winning, that I might have to hold my nose and vote for Hillary Clinton. But at the end of the day, I just feel like she is so culturally disconnected from the people that I grew up around that it would be very, very hard for me to cast my ballot for her. So ultimately I think I'll probably vote third party. I might vote for this new guy who I really like, Evan McMullin, who I actually met the other day. But I think that I'm going to vote third party because I can't stomach Trump. I think that he's noxious and is leading the white working class to a very dark place. And ultimately I just don't share Hillary Clinton's politics.

GROSS: I'm just curious, though, in terms of the cultural difference you see between your life and the Clintons' - like, Hillary Clinton's mother was, I think, poor. Bill Clinton had a single mother who was somewhere between poor and working class. They have a lot of money now. You have a lot of money now.

VANCE: Yeah. So I think that there are obviously a lot of things that are relatable about Hillary and Bill Clinton. But fundamentally, they've surrounded themselves by very elite people who went to very elite universities. And because of that, both in the way they conduct themselves and the things they seem to care about - they just seem very different from the people that I grew up around. And that makes it very hard for me to feel that Clinton - Hillary or Bill Clinton are very relatable.

GROSS: The title of your memoir is "Hillbilly Elegy." What do you think of the word hillbilly? It's often used as a pejorative expression. You say people you know call themselves that.

VANCE: Yeah, I think it's an insider's term. It's something that my grandma once told me, we're allowed to call ourselves hillbillies - and we did - but nobody else is allowed to call us hillbillies. So it's very much a term of endearment for the people who use it about themselves and their families. But it's definitely pejorative and it's definitely the sort of term where if someone called me a hillbilly and meant it seriously, I'd be very, very offended.

GROSS: I want to thank you so much for talking with us.

VANCE: Yeah, Terry, thank you so much for having me. I really enjoyed chatting with you.

GROSS: J.D. Vance is the author of the new memoir, "Hillbilly Elegy." After we take a short break, Ken Tucker will review the new album by the bluegrass group The Earls of Leicester which pays tribute to Earl Flatt and Lester Scruggs. This is FRESH AIR.

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'Hillbilly Elegy' Recalls A Childhood Where Poverty Was 'The Family Tradition'

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TERRY GROSS, HOST: This is FRESH AIR. I'm Terry Gross. My guest, J.D. Vance, is the author of the new best-seller "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir Of A Family And Culture In Crisis." He says the book is about what goes on in the lives of real people when the industrial economy goes south.