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Demographic Makeup of West Virginia

Population: 1,852,994

Median Age: 41.9

Sex: 50.6% Female; 49.4% Male

Race: 93.5% Caucasian; 3.4% African American; 1.8% Two or more races; 0.8% Asian; 0.3% Other

Religious Preference: 78% Christian; 3% Non-Christian; 18% No Particular Faith

Voter Turnout

In the 2016, the primary election turnout was 40% and in the 2014 general election, the voter turnout was 37.3% in which it was ranked last in the entire United States in voter turnout

Voter Registration Laws in West Virginia

Be a United States citizen.

Be a West Virginia resident.

Not be deemed "mentally incompetent" by the court.

You must be 18 years old or older before the general election or special election.

You are not currently incarcerated, on probation, or on parole for a treason or bribery in an election.

You are not currently incarcerated, on probation, or on parole for a felony conviction (Restored after supervised release

A voter in West Virginia is required to present identification at the polls. Acceptable forms of identification include government-issued IDs (both those with and without photographs), bank cards, bank statements, and insurance cards

Additionally, West Virginia practices no-excuse early voting which means you do not need an excuse to vote early and also allows absentee voting.

Key Industries of Specialization in West Virginia

The top five key industries of specialization in West Virginia are Chemicals, Biotech, Energy, Aerospace, and Automotive

Most valuable public companies headquartered in West Virginia
The 5 most valuable public companies in West Virginia are:

United Bankshares Inc - $3.64 billion market cap

PDC Energy Inc. - $3.08 billion market cap

WesBanco Inc. -$ 2.3 billion market cap

Premier Financial Bancorp - $2.07 billion market cap

City Holding Company - $1.18 billion market cap

Impact of recent events on demand/supply for these industries and related companies

A recent event on demand/supply for these industries is the trade war with China which could be preventing these companies from getting the needed materials and growing. For instance, specifically in the Biotech field, companies in the US and China are competing for technological resources.

Price controls important to the people/businesses of West Virginia

The floor set price on the technological goods and services as well as chemical resources are probably important to the businesses of West Virginia as these are the major industries in the area

Quality of the Economy

The Real GDP Growth Rate is 1.3% in West Virginia compared to 2.3% percent for the United States as a whole.

The Real GDP Per Capita is $36,315 in West Virginia compared to $50,619 for the Unites States as a whole

The Unemployment Rate in West Virginia is 5.3% here compared to 2.3% for the United States as a whole.

Overall, West Virginia is not doing as well economically when compared to the United States as a whole

West Virginia's Largest Employers
1. Walmart (General Merchandise Stores)
2. West Virginia United Health System (Hospitals)
3. Charleston Area Medical Center (Hospitals)
4. Kroger (American Retail Company)
5. Mylan Pharmaceuticals (Pharmaceutical Company)
Distributions of Occupations Relative to the Nation

In West Virginia, employment in the industries of biotech and energy are over represented compared to the rest of the country. However, West Virginia is under represented in jobs in government, leisure, and professional industries

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Polling of the Race
Manchin(+7%)
Manchin 47% - Morrisey 42%
Conducted by Emerson College
Margin of Error - 6.4%

This poll is one of the most credible as it had a large sample size of 1,013 participants and it is also a fairly newer poll. Additionally, the margin of error is not particularly high when compared to many of the other polls on the Senate race and Emerson College is a credible source

Endorsements for Joe Manchin

Manchin has been endorsed by a variety of organizations such as the United Mine Workers of America, the WV Hospitality & Travel Association

Endorsements for Patrick Morrisey

Morrisey has been endorsed by a variety of organizations such as The National Rifle Association, the Campaign for Working Families, as well as Donald Trump himself

Support for Trump in 2016

During the 2016 presidential election, Manchin did not support Donald Trump due to the fact that he believes that his rhetoric is harmful for US citizens and does not agree with his policy. Manchin did say, however, that he would work with president Trump but stand up to him when he need to protect West Virginians. On the other hand, Morrisey is a supporter of Donald Trump as he agrees with many of his views such as border protection and the economy, He has said that he wants to work with Donald Trump to enact policies in West Virginia

Big Issues of the Race

Some of the big issues in this race are health insurance for people with preexisting conditions, jobs in the coal industry, the  opioid addiction, and electing state board of education at the local level. However, some of the big national issues involved with how to manage the economy, immigration, and healthcare.

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Results

Joe Manchin III defeated Patrick Morrisey for the Senate seat in West Virginia by a margin of 3% and by approximately 18,936 votes. The voter turnout for this election was extremely low with only 43% of the population showing up to vote.

Prediction

My prediction for the Senate election in West Virginia was correct as Joe Manchin did defeat Patrick Morrisey, but I predicted that he would win by a significant margin while he only ended up winning by 3 percentage points. The reason that this margin may have been smaller than I predicted was due to the fact that Morrisey received a lot of more support from the Republicans in the state than anticipated as Manchin appealed to both Democrats and Republicans. Addittionally, the fact that Manchin did not support Doanld Trumo in the 2016 presidential election also could have made this margin smaller due to the fact that West Virginia voted for him in that election.

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Joe Manchin III          (Democratic Incumbent)

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Joe Manchin III          (Democratic Incumbent)

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Background

Joseph Manchin III  is the senior United States Senator from West Virginia, a seat he has held since 2010. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as the 34th governor of West Virginia from 2005 to 2010 and the 27th secretary of state of West Virginia from 2001 to 2005. Additionally, he has been on the Committee of Appropriations as well as the Committee of Energy and Natural Resources

Democratic Primary

In the Democratic primary election, Joe Manchin defeated his opponent, Paula Jean Swearengin, who wanted to push for more progressive reforms in a state that has generally leaned more conservatively

Fit with Democratic Party

Joe Manchin is much more on the conservative end of the Democratic party and could therefore be seen as a moderate Democrat. He has been known to cross party lines and has generally had good relations with many Republicans. His OnTheIssues social score is 40% which is not as typical for a Democrat

Economic Platform

Joe Manchin’s economic platform is very similar to the other members of his party as he firmly believes in keeping a balanced budget. Similar to other Democrats, Manchin supports federal spending as a means of promoting economic growth and does not support the lowering of corporate taxation. He also does not outright support a decrease in the amount of military spending.

Economic views on spectrum from communism to capitalism

Manchin has an OnTheIssues economic score of 50% due to the fact that he does support federal spending as a means to promote economic growth which means that he would still be on the capitalist side, but he does believe in some government interference in the economy

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Patrick Morrisey         (Republican challenger)

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Patrick Morrisey         (Republican challenger)

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Background

Patrick James Morrisey has served as the 34th and current Attorney General of West Virginia since 2013. He is a member of the Republican Party. Morrisey was elected Attorney General of West Virginia in 2012, becoming the first Republican to serve in the role since 1933. He has been involved in numerous federal lawsuits such as the DEA opioid lawsuit as well as challenging the EPA in regards to coal-fired power plants.

Republican Primary

In the Republican primary election, Patrick Morrisey defeated both of his opponents, Evan Jenkins and Don Blankenship, Endorsement from President Trump may have helped him to achieve success in the primary election over his competitors.

Fit with Republican Party

Morrisey is an ideological conservative on the right wing of the Republican party with an OnTheIssues social score of 10% which is considered particularly on the low even for the Republican party

Economic Platform

Patrick Morrisey’s economic platform is also very similar to many of the other members of his party as he firmly believes that an income tax increase on any tax bracket should not be done. He also believes in lowering corporate tax rates and does not support a reduction in defense spending, but believes there should be some government interference in the economy and the balanced budget.

Economic views on spectrum from communism to capitalism

Morrisey has an OnTheIssues economic score of 80% due to the fact that he does not believe in increasing income tax on any tax bracket and does not support excessive spending from the government to spur the economy, but he does believe in some interference but not as much as most Democrats which makes him extremely capitalist.

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1. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2018/10/23/race-for-the-senate-2018-key-issues-in-west-virginia/
2. http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Patrick_Morrisey.htm
3. https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/43227/patrick-morrisey
4. https://votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/43227/patrick-morrisey/
5. http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Joe_Manchin_III.htm
6. https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/polls-show-west-virginia-voters-feelings-on-current-issues/article_54c2a7bb-a1ff-586e-adce-2fa295f44682.html
7. http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/
8. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/west-virginia/
9. https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_Party_primaries_in_West_Virginia,_2018
10. https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/west-virginia-senate
11. https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/biotechnology-biotech-china-united-states-crispr-genome-agriculture-trade-war
12. https://www.register-herald.com/news/w-va-gdp-growth-less-than-national-average/article_42c30385-806d-587e-9e55-d39e365416a4.html
13. https://www.deptofnumbers.com/gdp/west-virginia/
14. https://workforcewv.org/workforce/entry/west-virginia-s-largest-private-employers-in-march-2015.html

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I predict that Joe Manchin (D) will win the election by 7 percentage points.

Evidence 1- Polling Results

According to all of the polls that I have seen, Manchin is leading in all of them by a signifcant number of percentage points. Even with the margin of error on these polls, the results still show that Manchin definetly has the advantage in this election

Evidence 2 - Incumbent Advantage

Manchin also has the distinct advantage of being the incumbent in this election. This gives him an advantage in a small state because he really gets to know all areas of the state along with its people. While West Virginia is typically a conservative state, Manchin has been known to have some conservative ideals and could therefore appeal to a wider audience along with his familiarity.

Counterargument - Political Party

While I do believe that Manchin will win the 2018 election, Morrisey could win due to the advantage of political party. In 2016, West Virginia unanimously voted for President Trump and therefore would be considered a Republican state. As Morrisey is running with the Republican party, those who vote according to party lines and those who support Trump are likely to vote for Morrisey.