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Two samples of content page for reference

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                                                                                           STAGE 3

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                                                                                           STAGE 3

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GROUP REPORT
This shall be a combination of your prelim analysis in stage 1 and 2 with more DEPTH!

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F&B, retail businesses in CBD feel pinch as people work from home amid coronavirus concerns

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"It's good that the authorities are quick to respond to false news, so hopefully that helps assure the public that there is no reason not to eat out," Ms Lum, who runs the stall alone, said, "But yes, (I'm) bracing for the worst."

It is a difficult situation to be in, especially as F&B businesses operate on thin profit margins, said Mr Willin Low, owner of Relish@Frasers Tower. His lunch business has dropped by 45 to 55 per cent. Mr Low said he is in talks with other restaurant owners to see if they can come up with a plan collectively to tide through this period.

"Hopefully regular customers and landlords will support restaurants to keep them in business," he added.

But for some others, it is business as usual.

One Korean grocery store shop assistant, who asked not to be named as he was not authorised to speak, said that sales have been brisk, especially over the weekend when people came to stock up on rice and instant noodles.

OFFICE STAFF WORKING FROM HOME

Last Friday, the Singapore Government moved the DORSCON status to Orange. The Ministry of Health urged companies to "step up" their business continuity plan, with suggestions that employees could telecommute or be divided into separate teams.

Banks, technology firms and property consultancies with offices in the CBD have heeded the advice and kickstarted their segregation strategies.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) said in a media statement on Monday (Feb 10) that it activated its business continuity plans for all critical functions and services, with employees working from split sites, from home and on split shifts.

Similar measures have been put in place at DBS, according to a spokesperson. Its 12,000 employees across Singapore, either work from home or from separate sites.

A DBS employee was confirmed on Wednesday to be infected by the coronavirus, prompting the bank to evacuate 300 of its staff members from its offices on the 43rd floor at Tower 3 of Marina Bay Financial Centre.

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F&B, retail businesses in CBD feel pinch as people work from home amid coronavirus concerns

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SINGAPORE: Valentine's Day is the occasion when Mdm Wong Li Hua makes the most money in the year.But the florist was visibly frustrated when she spoke to CNA.

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DBS offers to help build online platform for businesses
[For conclusion/measures]
https://www.dbs.com.sg/sme/covid-19-relief-measures/fb-digital-relief-package

Workers get pay cut due to covid-19 outbreak
[For unemployment and GDP]
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-coronavirus-businesses-rent-sales-12461962

Government reveals $48 billion package to support workforce [For unemployment and GDP]
https://hrmasia.com/singapore-reveals-s48-billion-resilience-budget-as-economic-recession-looms/

Expansionary monetary policy
[For Government measures]
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/mas-eases-monetary-policy-as-economy-reels-from-impact-covid-19-12587788

Note: These are meant for elaboration of your prelim analysis in Stage 3 (Report Writing). For instance, reference 1 would help to expand the first point in your Prelim Analysis to a more rounded analysis to be captured in team's report.

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Macroeconomics Prelim Analysis [Based on 3 key sources of information]  

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Macroeconomics Prelim Analysis [Based on 3 key sources of information]  

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1.  Fall in real GDP: F&B industry affected by the Covid-19 outbreak
- Real GDP growth forecast for 2020 is in the red, between -4 to -1 percent
- A sharp decline in tourist arrivals and fall in domestic consumption due to the coronavirus   situation caused the fall in major sector, including F&B.
- The Restaurant Association of Singapore (RAS) has announced that the F&B industry has seen at least a 50% dip in business since the first infection.
- Net exports and consumption are two major expenditure components of SG's GDP, downward revision of growth forecast makes sense
- Fall in domestic consumption and investment due to precautionary measures such as WFH and social distancing. E.g. Cafes and dining places in CBD area reported to have fewer walk-in customers
- Fall in domestic consumption due to falling purchasing power (link to point 2)
- Fall in domestic consumption also likely due to the negative sentiments of the current situation

To find out more for report writing:
- Data/evidence indicating fall in real income and negative sentiments by consumers

2. Rising underemployment as businesses try to cut losses
- Retail and F&B employees are asking full-timers to convert to part-timers
(Evidence: CNA's interview of a boutique stall in Novena).
To find out more for report writing:
-  Rising cyclical unemployment as businesses retrench workers.

3. The government is implementing massive expansionary fiscal policy to help businesses stay  afloat
- In the form of rental waiver, deferment of tax payments, wage co-payment, temporary loan
- By keeping businesses afloat, there will be less retrenchment, mitigating the fall in consumer spending.

To find out more for report writing:
- Fiscal expenditures to help workers
- Whether the government is also implementing expansionary monetary policy
- Overall impact on inflation rate with falling demand-pull inflation (falling income and negative sentiments) but rising cost-push inflation (restrictions in importing raw materials such as coffee beans)

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4 ways the Resilience Budget is helping Singapore’s businesses stay afloat

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The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have long-lasting economic repercussions, as the global economy faces demand and supply shocks, falling growth forecasts and rising uncertainty.

To pull through this difficult time, additional support will be given to businesses. Addressing immediate challenges, the Resilience Budget will tackle the 3 Cs on business owners minds - cash flow, cost, and credit, in addition to offering help to specific sectors affected by COVID-19.

Here are the four ways the Resilience Budget is going to help businesses:

Help with cash flow
The Government is working to flow payouts under the wage support schemes quickly to provide timely assistance. By end-May 2020, a total of $5.6 billion would have been paid out. On top of this, an additional $500 million of wage credits under the enhanced support will be brought forward. Altogether, by Oct 2020, $16.2 billion will flow into the hands of businesses through the Job Support Scheme and Wage Credit Scheme.

To further ease cashflow as businesses await cash from wage support schemes, companies and self-employed persons will be granted an automatic deferment of income tax payments for 3 months. No application will be required.

Companies

Apr, May and Jun 2020

Self-employed persons

May, Jun and Jul 2020

Employees

May approach IRAS if they need help with tax payments and
wish to avail themselves to this arrangement

Help with business costs
Where the cost is within the Government's control, it will do its best to help.

The Property Tax Rebate announced in the Unity Budget will be enhanced, by raising the amount and covering more types of properties:

For 2020, qualifying commercial properties that have been more badly affected by the COVID-19 outbreak will pay no Property Tax. These include hotels, serviced apartments, tourist attractions, shops, and restaurants. This is a step up from the 15%-30% Property Tax Rebate announced earlier.

Businesses in other non-residential properties such as offices and industrial properties affected by the COVID-19 situation will be granted a Property Tax Rebate of 30% for the year 2020.

Landlords are urged to fully pass on the rebate to tenants by reducing rentals, to directly ease the cash flow and cost pressures faced by tenants.

Rental waivers will be enhanced to support tenants.

Stallholders in hawker centres managed by
NEA or NEA-appointed operators

3 months
(up from 1 month announced in Budget 2020)

Eligible tenants under government agencies

2 months
(up from 0.5 month announced in Budget 2020)

All other non-residential tenants

0.5 month

In addition, all government fees and charges will be frozen for one year , from 1 April 2020 to 31 March 2021.

Help with credit
Financing schemes will be further enhanced so that even the hardest-hit businesses will continue to have access to credit.

Earlier enhancements were made to the to alleviate SMEs' cash flow concerns, and the Enterprise Financing Scheme (EFS) - SME Working Capital Loan Temporary Bridging Loan Programme (TBLP) was introduced for enterprises in the tourism sector.

To support businesses' trade financing needs, the EFS - Trade Loan will be enhanced , with the maximum loan quantum being increase from $5 million to $10 million, and an increase in the Government's risk-share to 80%, up from 70%.

Subsidies to businesses for loan insurance premiums will be increased from 50% to 80%, under the Loan Insurance Scheme.

The Temporary Bridging Loan Programme will be expanded to all enterprises, and the maximum supported loan will be increased from $1 million to $5 million.

SMEs that require support beyond the TBLP can continue to tap on the EFS - SME Working Capital Loan. The maximum loan quantum for this will be further enhanced, from $600,000 to $1 million.

The Government will work with Participating Financial Institutions to defer capital payments for one year on the EFS-Working Capital Loan and the TBLP loans if requested by businesses, subject to assessment by Participating Financial Institutions.

In addition to financing schemes, $20 billion of loan capital will be set aside this budget. This will help to support good companies with strong capabilities, and catalyse private sector loan capital.

Businesses and individuals facing cash flow challenges will be receive help from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which is working with banks and insurers, for their loan obligations and insurance premium payments.
Help for sectors most affected by COVID-19
Additional help will be given to specific sectors that are most directly affected by COVID-19. These include sectors that rely on tourism and international travel, which have been hit the hardest, as well as sectors that involve a high level of human interaction that have been hit by safe distancing measures.

Enhanced Jobs Support Schemes will be rolled out for business in the aviation, tourism and food service sectors. For every local worker employed, a total of up to 75% wage offset for the first $4,600 of monthly wages will be provided.

A $350 million enhanced aviation support package will be introduced to fund measures such as rebates on landing and parking charges, and rental relief for airlines, ground handlers and cargo agents.

will be set aside to help the tourism industry rebound strongly, when the time is right.

The Point-to-Point Support Package to help taxi and private hire car drivers will be extended and enhanced. Eligible taxi hirers and PHC drivers will continue to receive the Special Relief Fund payments of $300 per vehicle per month until end-Sep 2020.

will be given a Private bus owners one-year road tax rebate and a six-month waiver of parking charges at government-managed parking facilities.

The arts and culture sector will be given an additional $55 million support package, to save jobs and support upskilling and digitalisation of the sector.
What businesses can do in the meantime
As Singapore prepares for recovery, businesses should continue to make use of this downtime to digitalise, restructure, and transform.

They can leverage the SMEs Go Digital Programme, the Productivity Solutions Grant (PSG) and the Enterprise Development Grant (EDG) to do so. These schemes will be enhanced until Dec 2020, in the following ways:

SMEs Go Digital Programme will provide support for more digital solutions, from basic remote working tools, to more advanced systems.

Maximum support levels for PSG and EDG raised to 80% and 90% respectively to spur transformation.

Upgrading workers' skills must continue to be a focus, thus enhanced support for skills upgrading will be provided in the following ways:

Course fee subsidies will be extended to the arts and culture and land transport sectors from 1 Apr 2020. This is on top of enhanced training support for aviation, tourism, food services, and retail trade sectors previously announced at the Unity Budget.

90% absentee payroll rates will be extended to all employers , to provide additional cash flow relief when they send their workers for training, from 1 May 2020.

The duration of the enhancements will also be extended, to cover eligible courses starting before 1 January 2021.

For more on Budget 2020, visit www.singaporebudget.gov.sg.

View the Budget booklets here

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4 ways the Resilience Budget is helping Singapore's businesses stay afloat

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The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have long-lasting economic repercussions, as the global economy faces demand and supply shocks, falling growth forecasts and rising uncertainty. To pull through this difficult time, additional support will be given to businesses.

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A month into COVID-19 outbreak, retailers, eateries are reeling from near-empty malls and streets

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SINGAPORE: It has been just about a month since the first case of COVID-19 landed in Singapore, but Ms Patricia Zhuang has already had her pay cut by half, to just under S$1,000.

The 37-year-old sales staff at Vivy Boutique, an apparel store at Novena Square, was converted from a full-time employee to a part-time staff as part of her company's cost-cutting measures.

"Now, I'm only earning my pocket money," said Ms Zhuang.

It's a similar story for Mr Rex Xu, a manager at Ker's Hair Salon, over at Jurong East. The decline in the number of customers at the hair salon has led to a drop in his commission, resulting in an overall 50 per cent dip in income, said the 32-year-old.

"If this continues, we cannot survive. We need to eat and pay rent," he said.

The novel coronavirus, now officially known as COVID-19, originated from the Chinese city of Wuhan and has now spread to 29 other countries and territories, with Singapore reporting 86 confirmed cases as of Friday (Feb 21).

Not only has the virus infected close to 75,000 individuals globally and caused more than 2,000 deaths, mainly in China, it also left a trail of economic casualties.

As the authorities in Singapore try to curb the spread of the virus through various measures, such as a travel ban on non-residents who have been to China recently, businesses in the retail and food and beverage (F&B) sectors have borne the brunt of the sharp drop in tourist arrivals and weak consumer spending among Singaporeans.

The virus-related blow comes on the back of an already challenging retail environment, which has been buffeted by continuing US-China trade tensions and e-commerce competition.

The plight of Ms Zhuang and Mr Xu was not uncommon among retail and F&B employees, based on our visits to eight different locations across the island this past week to find out how businesses in these sectors were coping with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.

On Monday (Feb 17), the Trade and Industry Ministry downgraded its 2020 full-year growth forecast for Singapore to between -0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent - with a possible recession - from an initial projection of between 0.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had earlier said that the COVID-19 situation already had a greater impact on the economy compared to when Singapore went through an outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) back in 2003, and would likely last longer.
A 'PITIFUL' SIGHT

With travel restrictions imposed on non-residents who have been to China in the last 14 days, it is unsurprising that tourist spots have been hit the hardest.

At Chinatown, staff and business owners of several establishments said sales had gone down by 80 per cent.

"Business has dropped so much that it's very quiet here, nobody at all during the night time ... Everybody here is very worried, it's very pitiful," said Ms Kathy Fan, co-owner of Vietnamese restaurant Co Ba Quan, which is located along Chinatown's Food Street.

During a visit on a weekday afternoon, it was possible to see one end of the road from the other, lined with rows of empty tables. Tourists were few and far between, with some restaurants serving only one table of customers, or none at all.

One elderly worker could be seen dozing off at an empty table.

Earlier this week, local news reports highlighted how some Chinese workers, businesses in Singapore - including those in Chinatown - are being shunned, amid discrimination faced by some Chinese nationals here. The discrimination stems from anxiety over COVID-19, which originated in the city of Wuhan in China.

But the retail slump goes beyond that - consumers are also avoiding retailers and F&B outlets elsewhere.

At Jewel Changi, sales staff said that business had gone down by as much as 70 per cent. Queues at fast-food outlets Shake Shack and A&W were also visibly shorter.

And it is not just retail outlets at tourist spots that have been affected. Businesses in the heartlands from Simei to Jurong East also reported a slump in sales.

Mr Kelvin Wai, owner of Evergreen Handphone Shop at Simei, said the travel restrictions had also affected his business as 20 per cent of his customers were Chinese tourists who bought mobile phone SIM cards. He has stopped ordering new stock with business down by 40 per cent.

At The Digital Gadgets, a mobile phone accessory outlet at Westgate mall in Jurong East, its manager, Ms Serena Nguyen, said that her company was trying to push for more online sales via e-commerce websites as business had dropped by 50 per cent at the shop.

Reports of confirmed COVID-19 cases at Marina Bay Financial Centre, as well as companies' directive for staff to work from home, have also turned the Marina Bay Link Mall into a "ghost town", said Ms Lyn Lee, founder of Awfully Chocolate.

Sales of her two stores at the Marina Bay area have been particularly affected, she said.

When we visited Suntec City around noon on Thursday, there was a decent lunchtime crowd at the restaurants surrounding its iconic Fountain of Wealth. But those located further away were more than half empty.

Mr Oscar Apiado, the outlet manager of apparel store The Shirt Bar, said that the mall corridors were "almost empty" after 3pm when the lunchtime crowd dwindled.

At Japanese buffet restaurant Kuishin Bo, staff could be seen standing around, tending to only a handful of customers during the lunch hour.

Its restaurant manager, Ms Chao Jun, said that the place would typically be three-quarters full during lunchtime, but it was not even a quarter-full at the time of visit.

SHORTER OPENING HOURS, STAFF ASKED TO TAKE NO-PAY LEAVE
With sales dropping by 80 per cent, Ms Chao said staff had been asked to clear leave as there was no longer the need to have the usual manpower strength of five servers on a weekday.

"Now I only plan for two people to work. Even two people also got nothing to do ... only standing there waiting for customers," she said.

Even restaurants which open only for dinner are facing the same problem. Two Saturdays ago, Mr Marjun de Claro, manager at the House of Peranakan at Outram Park, said that the restaurant did not have a single customer for the whole night.

The "zero sales" phenomenon is also happening at retail outlets. Ms Zhuang said that there were several days where the store did not manage one single transaction. There was one particular day where it made a total of S$15 in sales.

During a visit to apparel store Ns' Boutique at Novena Square at 2pm on Wednesday, its director Ms Chrislyn Ng said the store had not managed a single sale since it opened at 10.30am.

With business down by 30 per cent, Mr Freddy Ng, operations manager of Wang Tian Kitchen at Outram Park, said that his restaurant is now closed on Saturdays. Operating hours on weekdays have also shortened by about two hours.

Across the island, several business owners said they have started similar cost-cutting measures, such as reducing the number of part-time staff, or shortening the working hours of their full-time staff, inevitably affecting the income of these workers.

Several workers also voiced fears about losing their jobs if their companies continue to be battered over the next few months.

Ms Candy Chen, 47, a sales staff at Just Mobile, a mobile phone accessory store at Nex mall in Serangoon, said her commission had fallen by 30 per cent along with the drop in sales.

All three employees of Mr Joe Chen, a director of two apparel stores at Novena Square, have been asked to take turns to go on no-pay leave. As a result, they end up working only three to four days a week.

He has applied for them to go for skills upgrading courses on the days that they are not working.

CONSUMERS STAYING AT HOME
With companies activating remote-working arrangements, and more individuals choosing to stay home because of the COVID-19 outbreak, it is not surprising that malls are seeing lower footfall, thus affecting the businesses of retailers and F&B outlets.

For Ms Michelle Chin, 49, it is not just the malls she is avoiding. She has also stopped going to her church in Bukit Batok.

"When (the virus crisis) first broke out, I said I didn't want to go church. My kids say, 'Ma, don't be paranoid'. But it's my personal choice... It's just a precaution," said the retiree, who had stopped attending church service for the past three Sundays.

Some churches and other religious institutions have cancelled or scaled back their regular religious services and holding them online instead, after two COVID-19 clusters were identified at churches.

Before the outbreak, Ms Chin used to head to Novena Square at least once a day to buy her groceries, and patronised some of the shops in the mall now and then.

That has all but stopped with the exception of a weekly grocery run.

Even then, it is a real quick run. "The minute I get into the mall, I get to the escalator, buy whatever I need and run back," said Ms Chin.

While work-from-home arrangements naturally mean that F&B establishments in office areas would see a smaller lunch-time crowd, it does not automatically translate to increased sales at outlets in residential estates.

To reduce the risk of exposure to the virus, Ms Doreen Yeow started working from home whenever possible even before her workplace made it official.

Her lunch now consists of home-cooked food, as the 38-year-old engineer has stopped going to crowded places, such as malls.

"I don't step out of the house at all," she said. She only left home twice in the past week, once to visit her parents and another time to attend a class.

Mr Sean Wei Leong, a 32-year-old risk manager, who also started working from home last week, said he generally avoids crowded areas, such as Orchard Road, although he does head to the suburban malls in Tampines where he lives.
SOME LANDLORDS EXTEND A HELPING HAND
Amid mounting calls for help from the retail and F&B sectors due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat on Tuesday unveiled two special packages totalling S$5.6 billion to help firms and workers, as well as households during his Budget speech.

The packages dwarf the S$230 million package introduced during the SARS crisis in 2003, and significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of at least a S$500 million package.

Part of the S$5.6 billion package is a S$4 billion Stabilisation and Support Package (SSP) meant for businesses and workers affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.

The SSP includes:

A S$1.3 billion Jobs Support Scheme where the Government will pay for 8 per cent of the wages of local employees, up to a monthly cap of S$3,600, for three months.

Flexible rental payments for tenants and lessees under the JTC Corporation, Housing and Development Board (HDB), Singapore Land Authority, Singapore Tourism Board and Sentosa Development Corporation.

A waiver of one full-month of rent for tenants at National Environment Agency-managed hawker centres and markets.

A half-month rent waiver for tenants under government agencies, such as HDB.

A 15 per cent property tax rebate for Changi Airport and commercial properties.

"I strongly urge landlords to pass this on to their tenants by reducing rentals," Mr Heng had said.

Several property developers, such as CapitaLand, GuocoLand, AsiaMalls and Frasers Property, have said that they will pass on the full savings of the tax rebates to their tenants, in response to queries.

Marketing campaigns and free parking for visitors, among other initiatives, have also been introduced by some developers to help their struggling tenants.
BUSINESSES SAY THEY NEED MORE HELP
On the Budget measures, several businesses said they would have preferred more direct help on rental rebates - such as how Jewel Changi is offering a 50 per cent rebate on rent for its F&B tenants for the months of February and March - instead of leaving it to the landlords' discretion whether to pass on savings from tax rebates to them.

"Savings from the tax rebates are nothing to me ... We are talking about occupancy costs (being) as high as 70 to 80 per cent (out of tenants' total costs) now," said Mr R Dhinakaran, president of the Singapore Retailers Association (SRA).

If developers do not provide a direct rebate on rent, a potential consequence would be the closures of several retailers, causing the malls to be empty, he noted.

"What can (the developers) do? They can't sue everybody who can't pay rent... (Retailers) will just pull down the shutters and go away... That's a situation, I hope, will not happen," Mr Dhinakaran said.

Instead, a "fair approach" during these challenging times would be to pay the landlord a certain percentage of the tenants' sales as rent, he suggested.

Mr Vincent Tan, president of the Restaurant Association of Singapore (RAS), echoed Mr Dhinakaran's sentiments, adding that passing on savings from a tax rebate is "way below" what the association is asking for.

"In fact, the 15 per cent rebate (announced during Budget) comes from the Government. The developers (are not going to) sacrifice a single cent," Mr Tan said.

Last week, RAS told the media that it had sent letters to 24 landlords, requesting that they offer rental rebates of up to 50 per cent for February, March and April.

Awfully Chocolate's Ms Lee said there was "little" offered in the Budget that would help retailers directly and materially. Recalling how property tax rebates were also part of the SARS relief package back in 2003, she said that landlords then were reluctant to pass on the savings to their tenants.

"It felt as if a great amount of cajoling had to be done before help was given ... Is the same thing going to happen? I can only assume so ... So if the Government's intention is that these tax rebates are passed down to the tenants, then I think they should be given with a set of parameters and directives. Not left to goodwill and best endeavours," she added.

Passing on the savings of a tax rebate may also not be as timely as compared to a direct rebate, said Wang Tian Kitchen's Mr Ng.

"If for now, I keep paying the same rent, so at the end of the year, the landlord say, 'I rebate you 15 per cent'. What's the point? It won't help already. The thing is already over by then," he said.

Some businesses said they were disappointed that unlike the 2003 SARS relief package, the foreign worker levies were not reduced this time.

While Ms Chris Lim, a business partner at children edutainment provider Diggersite, said she knows that the Government's intention is to encourage companies to hire more locals, her hands, unfortunately, are tied.

"Our situation is different. The jobs we have, the locals will not take... (The Government) thinks we should hire locals, but it's actually not our call," said Ms Lim, whose business includes a cafe at Suntec City.

As her company provides edutainment at company events and conducts field trips for children, she has had to temporarily suspend these weekday services, as the Government has discouraged large-scale public gatherings with the raising of the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) risk assessment level from Yellow to Orange.

As for Mr Wai, who is renting a space from HDB for his mobile phone accessories shop in Simei, he lamented that the half-month waiver for rental is "very little" and not of much help.

However, he said he was looking forward to the possibility of setting up flexible arrangements to pay rent, such as through an installment plan.
A STRUGGLE TO HANG ON
Businesses are worried about the prospect of closures should the situation drag on longer than expected.

Mr Heng has repeatedly assured businesses and households that the Government is watching the situation closely, and it will not hesitate to do more if needed.

Mr Chen, the apparel store director, said that he has an emergency fund that would be able to tide him through this crisis for the next six months, at most.

"If worst comes to worst, if after six months and we're still making losses, then we may have to close one of our stores. Instead of two, we would just run one," he added.

Other businesses gave a shorter time frame.

For example, Diggersite's Ms Lim said she may have to take more drastic measures, such as retrenching full-time staff, if things do not improve in three months.

Mr Shah Iskandar, owner of South Asian eatery Az Zumar at Outram Park, said he would assess the situation in a month's time.

"If the problem goes beyond end of March, finances will be very tight for us," he said. He might have to cut short his eatery's operating hours, which is currently open for 24 hours daily to just 12.

That would also mean cutting the number of staff required to sustain the operations, he added.

Mr Dhinakaran said most retailers would probably be able to hold the fort for only the next two to three months, if things do not get better or if the landlords do not provide substantial rebates in rent. He said:

Suppliers will also chase for money. You have stock in the shop but not sold, doesn't mean they won't chase... You have to pay this, pay that, but no sales, how do you pay? Then everybody will put up their hands and say, 'Sorry cannot pay'. That's what will happen.

RAS' Mr Tan said most F&B outlets would be able to sustain business under current conditions for the next three to six months.

Professor Lawrence Loh, from the National University of Singapore Business School, called on major developers - the ones with the "deep pockets" - to "demonstrate their social responsibility" and help retailers and F&B outlets struggling to cope with the crisis.

He pointed out that the economy this time would not undergo a V-shaped recovery, unlike what happened after Singapore eradicated SARS in July 2003.

"It would be more like a flat U-shaped recovery ... For this COVID-19 outbreak, it's expected to be longer. It will simmer on, in dribs and drabs ... There will be a persistent effect on retail. And even after the outbreak is officially declared to be over, business will not just recover overnight," he said.

In the meantime, for service staff like Ms Zhuang and Mr Xu, they would need to tighten their belts and watch their spending - setting off a spiral of reduced consumption which would further hit retailers and eateries. Mr Xu said:

Right now, having a job is not bad already.

Download our app or subscribe to our Telegram channel for the latest updates on the novel coronavirus outbreak: https://cna.asia/telegram

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The Big Read: A month into COVID-19 outbreak, retailers, eateries are reeling from near-empty malls and streets

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SINGAPORE: It has been just about a month since the first case of COVID-19 landed in Singapore, but Ms Patricia Zhuang has already had her pay cut by half, to just under S$1,000. The 37-year-old sales staff at Vivy Boutique, an apparel store at Novena Square, was converted from a full-time employee to a part-time staff as part of her company's cost-cutting measures.

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Singapore's 2020 growth forecast hits negative territory, Q1 GDP contracts 2.2%

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                                                                                                                                            STAGE 2

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MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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Coffee bean prices hit 2-year high as Asians drink more

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SACHIHA KUROSE, Nikkei staff writer

TOKYO -- The international price of coffee beans has risen sharply as the world's biggest suppliers Brazil and Vietnam are expected to cut production in the year to the end of September 2020.

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Coffee bean prices hit 2-year high as Asians drink more

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SACHIHA KUROSE, Nikkei staff writer TOKYO -- The international price of coffee beans has risen sharply as the world's biggest suppliers Brazil and Vietnam are expected to cut production in the year to the end of September 2020.

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[1] Coffee ranked number 1 in terms of beverage consumption. 62.22% of Singaporeans consume coffee regularly [Cint, 2018]
https://www.statista.com/statistics/920752/singapore-regular-beverage-consumption/

[2] Singapore sits at number 36 in the list of  "Top 50 coffee consuming countries", [Euromonitor, Mar 2018]
https://perkcoffee.co/sg/countries-consume-coffee/

Note: These are meant for elaboration of your prelim analysis in Stage 3 (Report Writing). For instance, reference 1 would help to expand the first point in your Prelim Analysis to a more rounded analysis to be captured in team's report.

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Singapore coffee industry evolves amid growth of specialty shops | Video

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The Singapore coffee industry is evolving along with a growth of specialty and hipster shops, as coffee lovers here develop more discerning tastes. Channel NewsAsia talks to experts to find out how the coffee scene has transformed over the last 15 years.

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Singapore coffee industry evolves amid growth of specialty shops | Video

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The Singapore coffee industry is evolving along with a growth of specialty and hipster shops, as coffee lovers here develop more discerning tastes. Channel NewsAsia talks to experts to find out how the coffee scene has transformed over the last 15 years.

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Changing culture of coffee drinkers

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One of the global trends in coffee is the need to know more, and to build culture around the quality of the coffee people drink. There is a growing attention towards organic and biological coffees, and towards certified products, which reassures people about the product sustainability.

Also, there is growing interest towards origins of coffee beans, and more and more single-origin products are being developed. We believe that the coffee drinkers around the world, as well as in Asia, will be more and more keen to learn and know more information about the quality of the coffee they drink, the origins of the green coffee, the quality of the harvest, to name a few. With this context, I would say that coffee itself is the functional ingredient which keeps stimulating the interest and the curiosity of worldwide coffee drinkers. Our company is focused on building culture and education around good quality coffee. Therefore, at the moment we are focusing on this value.

Together with our network of top chefs around the world, we have created the "Coffee Design" and the "Coffeetail" concepts, which reinterpret the roles that coffee plays in food and top gastronomy. These concepts already see a combination of coffee with either innovative transformation processes or other ingredients, in order to create new drinking and tasting experiences.

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changing culture of coffee drinkers - asia pacific food industry

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Changing Culture Of Coffee Drinkers - Asia Pacific Food Industry

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One of the global trends in coffee is the need to know more, and to build culture around the quality of the coffee people drink. There is a growing attention towards organic and biological coffees, and towards certified products, which reassures people about the product sustainability.

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Singaporeans drinking more coffee

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Microeconomics Prelim Analysis [Based on 4 key sources of information]  

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Microeconomics Prelim Analysis [Based on 4 key sources of information]  

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1. Demand for coffee, especially specialty coffee, increased over the years
Support from key sources:
- The overall coffee consumption is predicted to increase by 2.5 to 3% per year led thanks to rising popularity of indie/small entrepreneur owned cafes.
- Such trend can also be inferred from the increase in demand of essential resources. E.g. the imports of coffee beans went from S$1.1 billion in 2008 to S$1.4 billion in 2011.

To find out more for report writing:
- Overview of beverage industry/Ranking of coffee consumption versus other beverages

2. Changes in taste and preferences led to the increase in demand for specialty coffee
Support from key sources:
- NTU Associate Professor, Julien Cayla, commented that consumers are increasingly rejecting mass-produced common food and brands. That gave rise to the "third-wave" in the coffee industry, the rise of specialty coffee.
- Starbucks General Manager, Patrick Kwok, commented that consumers now wants to know more about what they are drinking. E.g. The origin of the coffee beans

3.  Changes in consumers income affects demand for specialty coffee
Support from key sources:
- With rising affluence, consumers are changing their preference from instant coffee, to high-quality specialty coffee.

To find out more for report writing:
- Evidence supporting rising income of consumers

4. Market structure of the specialty coffee industry: Monopolistic competition
Support from key sources:
- Production differentiation such as different branding, location and product image are widely practiced
- E.g. JBM coffee & dining differentiated their cafe from others in terms of their unique  European themed interior and location (CBD area).
- There are numerous specialty cafes in Singapore and no dominant cafe(s) within the industry.

To find out more for report writing:
- The number of players in the market, double check that there is/are no cafe(s) that own(s) bulk of the market share.
- A few more examples of how certain cafes selling specialty coffee differentiate their products and services from others. E.g. Online purchase and delivery of coffee beans

Note: This is just an example. Analysis depends on the information and economic concepts chosen by team. Noticed that other appropriate concepts such as price elasticity of demand is not covered in this example but that doesn't mean you can't.  In fact, you should!