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Link to my paragraphs bout the 2 articles

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https://docs.google.com/document/d/1sLymXRw26ycOdNbcYlPWSJbuhV-HnaNfHH1-Moz_SNQ/edit

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https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VgsfzKtXVC8kw4LRs4z2iYqMyBK4lEJbBaUFaa4crjQ/edit

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The study in the article evaluates the relationship between post neonatal infant mortality and particulate matter in the United States.

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Abstract

Recent studies have found associations between particulate air pollution and total and adult mortality. The relationship between particulate air pollution and mortality among infants has not been examined in the United States. This study evaluates the relationship between postneonatal infant mortality and particulate matter in the United States. Our study involved analysis of cohorts consisting of approximately 4 million infants born between 1989 and 1991 in states that report relevant covariates; this included 86 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States. Data from the National Center for Health Statistics-linked birth/infant death records were combined at the MSA level with measurements of particulate matter 10 microns or less (PM10) from the EPA's Aerometric Database. Infants were categorized as having high, medium, or low exposures based on tertiles of PM10. Total and cause-specific postneonatal mortality rates were examined using logistic regression to control for demographic and environmental factors. Overall postneonatal mortality rates were 3.1 among infants with low PM10 exposures, 3.5 among infants with medium PM10 exposures, and 3.7 among highly exposed infants. After adjustment for other covariates, the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for total postneonatal mortality for the high exposure versus the low exposure group was 1.10 (1.04, 1.16). In normal birth weight infants, high PM10 exposure was associated with respiratory causes [OR = 1.40, (1.05, 1.85)] and sudden infant death syndrome [OR = 1.26, (1.14, 1.39)]. For low birth weight babies, high PM10 exposure was associated, but not significantly, with mortality from respiratory causes [OR = 1.18, (0.86, 1.61)]. This study suggests that particulate matter is associated with risk of postneonatal mortality. Continued attention should be paid to air quality to ensure optimal health of infants in the United States.

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Dockery DW, Cunningham J, Damokosh AI, Neas LM, Spengler JD, Koutrakis P, Ware JH, Raizenne M, Speizer FE. Health effects of acid aerosols on North American children: respiratory symptoms. Environ Health Perspect. 1996 May;104(5):500-505. [PMC free article]

Articles from Environmental Health Perspectives are provided here courtesy of National Institute of Environmental Health Science

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The relationship between selected causes of postneonatal infant mortality and particulate air pollution in the United States.

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Recent studies have found associations between particulate air pollution and total and adult mortality. The relationship between particulate air pollution and mortality among infants has not been examined in the United States. This study evaluates the relationship between postneonatal infant mortality and particulate matter in the United States.

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Out of all regions seasons, personal characteristics and weather; CO showed the most consistently significant relationships to cardiovascular admissions,

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Abstract

We used daily time-series analysis to evaluate associations between ambient carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter [less than and equal to] 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)), or ozone concentrations, and hospital admissions for cardiopulmonary illnesses in metropolitan Los Angeles during 1992-1995. We performed Poisson regressions for the entire patient population and for subgroups defined by season, region, or personal characteristics, allowing for effects of temporal variation, weather, and autocorrelation. CO showed the most consistently significant (p<0.05) relationships to cardiovascular admissions. A wintertime 25th-75th percentile increase in CO (1.1-2.2 ppm) predicted an increase of 4% in cardiovascular admissions. NO(2), and, to a lesser extent, PM(10) tracked CO and showed similar associations with cardiovascular disease, but O(3) was negatively or nonsignificantly associated. No significant demographic differences were found, although increased cardiovascular effects were suggested in diabetics, in whites and blacks (relative to Hispanics and Asians), and in persons older than 65 years of age. Pulmonary disease admissions associated more with NO(2) and PM(10) than with CO. Pulmonary effects were generally smaller than cardiovascular effects and were more sensitive to the choice of model. We conclude that in Los Angeles, atmospheric stagnation with high primary (CO/NO(2)/PM(10)) pollution, most common in autumn/winter, increases the risk of hospitalization for cardiopulmonary illness. Summer photochemical pollution (high O(3)) apparently presents less risk.

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Articles from Environmental Health Perspectives are provided here courtesy of National Institute of Environmental Health Science

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Air pollution and daily hospital admissions in metropolitan Los Angeles.

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We used daily time-series analysis to evaluate associations between ambient carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter [less than and equal to] 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)), or ozone concentrations, and hospital admissions for cardiopulmonary illnesses in metropolitan Los Angeles during 1992-1995.

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No matter the amount of trash that gets dumped into the ocean the effects are be negligible. The shore-line areas have became more polluted than the ever have been before

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THE OCEANS ARE so vast and deep that until fairly recently, it was widely assumed that no matter how much trash and chemicals humans dumped into them, the effects would be negligible.

Today, we need look no further than the New Jersey-size dead zone that forms each summer in the Gulf of Mexico, or the thousand-mile-wide belt of plastic trash in the northern Pacific Ocean to see that this early "policy" placed a once flourishing ocean ecosystem on the brink of collapse.

Many "flavors" of marine pollution

Ocean water covers more than 70 percent of the Earth, and only in recent decades have we begun to understand how humans impact this watery habitat. Marine pollution, as distinct from overall water pollution, focuses on human-created products that enter the ocean.

Before 1972, humans around the word spewed trash, sewage sludge, and chemical, industrial, and radioactive wastes into the ocean with impunity. Millions of tons of heavy metals and chemical contaminants, along with thousands of containers of radioactive waste, were purposely thrown into the ocean.

The London Convention, ratified in 1975 by the United States, was the first international agreement to spell out better protection for the marine environment. The agreement implemented regulatory programs and prohibited the disposal of hazardous materials at sea. An updated agreement, the London Protocol, went into effect in 2006, more specifically banning all wastes and materials except for a short list of items, like leftover materials from dredging.

Many of these pollutants sink to the ocean's depths or float far distances from their original source, where they are consumed by small marine organisms and introduced into the global food chain. Marine pollution encompasses many types of pollution that disrupt the marine ecosystem, including chemical, light, noise, and plastic pollution.

Chemical pollution

Chemical pollution is the introduction of harmful contaminants. Common man-made pollutants that reach the ocean include pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, detergents, oil, industrial chemicals, and sewage.

Many ocean pollutants are released into the environment far upstream from coastlines. Nutrient-packed fertilizers applied to farmland, for example, often end up in local streams and are eventually deposited into estuaries and bays. These excess nutrients trigger massive blooms of algae that rob the water of oxygen, leaving dead zones where few marine organisms can live. Some chemical pollutants climb high into the food webs-like DDT, the insecticide that placed the bald eagle on the United States Fish and Wildlife's endangered species list.

Scientists are starting to better understand how specific pollutants, leached into the ocean from other materials, affect marine wildlife. PFAS, a chemical incorporated into many household products, accumulates in human and marine mammal blood. Even pharmaceuticals ingested by humans, but not fully processed by our bodies, end up in aquatic food webs.

Light pollution

Since the invention of the lightbulb, light has spread across the globe, reaching almost every ecosystem. Often thought of as a terrestrial problem, scientists are starting to understand how artificial light at night affects many marine organisms.

Light pollution penetrates under the water, creating a vastly different world for fish living in shallow reefs near urban environments. Light disrupts the normal cues associated with circadian rhythms, to which species have evolved timing of migration, reproducing, and feeding. Artificial light at night can make it easier for predators to find smaller fish prey and can affect breeding in reef fish.

Noise pollution

Pollution is not always visible. In large bodies of water, sound waves can carry undiminished for miles. The increased presence of loud or persistent sounds from ships, sonar devices, and oil rigs disrupts natural noises in the marine environment.

For many marine mammals, like whales and dolphins, low visibility and large distances make non-visual underwater communication critical. Toothed whales use echolocation-emitting sounds that reflect off surfaces-to help them "see" in the ocean. Unnatural noises interrupt communication, disrupting migration, communication, hunting, and reproduction patterns for many marine animals.

Plastic pollution

Plastic pollution seeps into the ocean through run-off and even purposeful dumping. The amount of plastic in the Atlantic Ocean has tripled since the 1960s. The garbage patch floating in the Pacific Ocean, almost 620,000 square miles- twice the size of Texas -is a powerful image of our plastic problem.

A huge culprit is single-use plastics, used once before tossed into the trash or directly into the ocean. These single-use items are accidentally consumed by many marine mammals. Plastic bags resemble jellyfish, a common food for sea turtles, while some seabirds eat plastic because it releases a chemical that makes it smell like its natural food. Discarded fishing nets drift for years, ensnaring fish and mammals.

Bits of plastic swirl throughout the water column, even sinking to the deepest depths of the ocean. Scientists found plastic fibers in corals in the Atlantic Ocean-and more concerning, they found that the corals readily ate plastic over food. Dying marine mammals, washing up on shore, also contain plastic inside their stomachs.

Is there a "fix" to marine pollution?

Many national laws, as well as international agreements, now forbid dumping of harmful materials into the ocean, although enforcing these regulations remains a challenge.

Many pollutants still persist in the environment, difficult to fully remove. Chemical pollutants often cannot be broken down for long periods of time, or they increase in concentration as they move up the food web. Because plastic is thought to take hundreds of years to break down, it poses a threat to the marine environment for centuries.

Isolated efforts to restore estuaries and bays have met with some success, but pollution gets trapped in marine sediment and makes complete clean-ups nearly impossible.

Moving forward, encouraging recycling and reuse can minimize plastic pollution. Dampening unnecessary lights at night can limit light pollution. And encouraging responsible chemical-use through consumer and political actions can protect the environment for the future.

National Geographic is committed to reducing plastics pollution. Learn more about our non-profit activities at natgeo.org/plastics. Learn what you can do to reduce your own single-use plastics, and take your pledge.

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A wide range of pollution-from plastic pollution to light pollution-affects marine ecosystems.

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The United Nations Environment Assembly meeting in Kenya, in early December 2017 was the most recent gathering to address the significant issue of plastic pollution in the world’s seas and oceans.

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Marine plastic pollution

Although there is broad-based recognition of the problem of marine pollution, the challenge in addressing marine plastic pollution reflects the complexity of a multi-faceted problem. A vast majority of marine plastic pollution derives from land-based sources (4.8-12.7 million metric tonnes of plastic annually)3, so a sole focus on marine oriented solutions is insufficient. The sources of such plastics are equally diverse, from commercial and recreational ships and vessels, fishing and aquaculture operations (rope, waste, fishing gear, nets) to land based sources, street litter, dumping, packaging (including plastic bags), plastic sheeting and production waste3.

Our growing understanding of the insidious and deleterious impacts of micro-sized (1 µm-1 mm) and nano-sized (<1 µm) plastic particles has further emphasised the environmental threat marine plastics pose. Microplastics are derived either from small particles developed for specific applications, or produced through the breakdown of larger items4. Micro-sized and nano-sized plastic particles are increasingly being consumed by marine life that confuse them with food sources1. These particles specifically, and plastic pollution in general, are being found in marine life in isolated areas indicating the pervasive nature of such pollution.

Issues for contemporary ocean governance

Marine pollution has long been recognised as a threat and a catalyst for ongoing developments in ocean governance. One major means to address and combat these threats has been through the work of international bodies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The IMO, responsible for the administration of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships 1973/78 (MARPOL), the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter 1972 and its 1996 Protocol (London Convention/Protocol), have also recognised the problem of plastic pollution and marine litter.

Ship-sourced disposal of plastics is prohibited under the MARPOL convention for vessels flagged to parties to this convention in both exclusive economic zones and waters beyond national jurisdiction. The enforcement of MARPOL provisions needs strong monitoring, control and surveillance systems to ensure effective compliance, a key role for the flag state of vessels, from the smallest fishing vessel to large supertankers. Land-based sources of pollution entering the marine environment, which are by far the main source of marine plastic pollution, need similar monitoring and control by states.

Given the character of the problem, attention has focused on international action with measurable targets to reduce macro-plastic and micro-plastic marine pollution1. The global community has risen to similar challenges in the past. Fifty years ago, Arvid Pardo, Malta's Ambassador to the United Nations, called for concerted actions to address what he saw as the potential for uncontrolled exploitation of the world's oceans, threatening what Pardo recognised as areas of for the 'common heritage of mankind'. Pardo's calls for action led to changes in ocean governance, most notably the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea that concluded with the drafting and eventual entry into force of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention.

An international agreement to address marine plastics could be pursued in a similar manner, but necessarily in a more integrated and broad-based approach than that attempted in the late 1960s. It could be modelled on the successful Montreal Protocol addressing ozone-depleting substances that saw replacement of chlorofluorocarbons and an increasing public awareness of the problem. A key starting point is to build on commitments made at Nairobi, reaffirming the principles contained in the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development in 19924, and the more recent commitments made in 2015 by world leaders in adopting the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development which, inter alia, includes 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)5. SDG 14, 'Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development', provides a focus for ongoing action on marine plastic pollution.

Another related direction (advanced by work at the United Nations Environment Assembly) is to build on the commitments made at the United Nations Conference to Support the Implementations of SDG 14, also known as the Oceans Conference, held in New York in June 2017. One outcome of the Oceans Conference was the creation of Communities of Ocean Action, with marine pollution identified in SDG Target 14.1 being the clear focus of such work. A side event at the United Nations Environment Assembly was a forum for governments, non-governmental organisations and civil society groups to present innovative solutions to tackle marine pollution through voluntary commitments by members of Communities of Action.

Scientific support can continue to be encouraged by organisations such as the Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP). Ongoing scientific work must continue in order to understand the scale and scope of the problem. However, adopting a precautionary approach would mean that this uncertainty should not be used to limit immediate efforts to reduce impacts and to mitigate their effects. Linking business and industry to such issues could be facilitated by the work of the World Ocean Council as a global industry alliance committed to Corporate Ocean Responsibility ( www.oceancouncil.org).

Community action can include initiatives that reduce the amount of plastic entering the marine environment, a focus on recycling and reusing plastics, and continue to improve public awareness of the impacts and vectors of marine plastic pollution, as well as practical mechanisms such as litter traps. These initiatives are independent of, but complement more globally focused actions at the state level6. Civil society action links to market and economic drivers that see consumer demand force a reduction in level and type of plastic. Industry can be encouraged to develop and support codes of conduct and certification of practices, along the lines of successful standard setting and certification developing in a variety of other sectors. Such certification supports and reinforces industry corporate social responsibility and social license. This in turn links back to appropriate and effective government regulation, particularly addressing the management of single use plastics and micro-sized and nano-sized plastic particles.

A way forward

There remains a number of challenges in addressing the problem of marine plastic pollution. In 1967, calls for a refocus on the 'common heritage' of the world's seas and oceans led to concerted and revolutionary action by the world community to address concerns and challenges. In late 2017, the United Nations Environment Assembly resolution on marine plastic pollution serves a similar purpose. The meeting, with broad based agreement from participating states and non-governmental organisations, may well provide the impetus for ongoing action to combat marine plastic pollution.

International agreements are not easily developed and are often criticised for the time taken to reach agreements and the tendency for a minimal tolerable consensus to shape outcomes. Despite these criticisms, the international framework for ocean governance continues to evolve. International initiatives addressing marine plastic pollution need to be supported by strong and focused scientific research, the engagement of business and community organisations, as well as engaged and committed government action on different scales, supporting community-based programs that address the use and disposal of plastics.

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Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, 7005, Australia

Marcus Haward

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Haward, M. Plastic pollution of the world's seas and oceans as a contemporary challenge in ocean governance. Nat Commun 9, 667 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03104-3
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Plastic pollution of the world's seas and oceans as a contemporary challenge in ocean governance

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The pervasive nature of marine plastic pollution was highlighted at the recent United Nations Environment Assembly. This meeting saw strong commitments for action, but at the same time reinforced the challenges for contemporary ocean governance in addressing marine plastic pollution.

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There are visible and invisible types of air pollution. Greenhouse gasses are the main pollutant that is warming this earth.  In the past 150 years enough carbon dioxide has been pumped into the atmosphere to raise its levels higher than they have been for hundreds of thousands of years.

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A new study showed that local impacts of humans nutrient pollution from activities on land may accelerate the negative impacts of global ocean acidification on coral reefs.

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A study published recently by a team of researchers, alumni and students from the University of Hawai'i at Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) showed that local impacts of humans -- nutrient pollution from activities on land -- may accelerate the negative impacts of global ocean acidification on coral reefs.

Coral reefs provide critical ecosystem services including food security and shoreline protection to coastal communities. These services largely depend on the highly complex three-dimensional structure of coral reefs. For coral reefs to thrive, calcifying organisms, such as corals, must build the reef faster than bioeroding organisms and natural dissolution break the reef down.

"There is a long history of examining the impacts of nutrient pollution and ocean acidification on coral reefs," said lead author Nyssa Silbiger, assistant professor at California State University, Northridge and alumna of the UH Manoa Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology (HIMB) at SOEST. "However, little is known about how these two stressors interact and influence coral reef ecosystem functioning."

Prior research showed that stressors associated with human-derived carbon dioxide (CO ₂) emissions, such as ocean acidification, are shifting coral reefs towards net loss, which would lead to the loss of the three-dimensional framework in the future. The new study in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences showed that nutrient pollution could make coral reefs more vulnerable to ocean acidification and accelerate the predicted shift from net growth to overall loss.

At HIMB, the team used a state-of-the-art system in which they continuously added nutrients (nitrate and phosphate) to aquariums housing different members of the coral reef community, including corals, seaweeds, dead reef rubble, or sand. They then compared this with an experiment mimicking natural systems with a mixed community containing all four constituents and measured critical "ecosystem functions" of coral reef communities: calcification, dissolution, photosynthesis, and respiration.

"We showed that nutrient pollution decreases overall reef growth and disrupts the natural chemical dynamics on coral reefs," said Silbiger. "In nutrient polluted seawater, calcifiers were less able to capitalize on the dissolved compounds that make up the building blocks of coral reefs. Nutrient pollution reduced calcification rates -- a measure of how quickly reef builders are creating the skeletal framework -- nearly tenfold in waters that would otherwise promote reef growth, and enhanced both skeletal dissolution and the growth of seaweed competitors."

Nutrients from fertilizers are often thought to impact reefs indirectly, for example by giving an advantage to weedy seaweeds that can overtake reefs, an observation reinforced by this study.

"These 'phase shifts' to algal reefs are occurring globally, causing a major change in how reefs function," said co-author Craig Nelson, faculty at UH Manoa in Oceanography and Sea Grant. "But until now we never quantified how nutrient pollution can directly reduce corals' ability to build reef structure."

What this work revealed is that the nutrients also change the local pH environment by compromising how corals and other reef organisms breathe, which influences the chemistry of the reef.

"The relationship between nutrients and reef metabolism exacerbates pH change, which can make the whole system more susceptible to global threats such as ocean acidification," said co-author Hollie Putnam, assistant professor at University of Rhode Island and alumna of HIMB.

"Nutrient pollution negatively effects reef growth both directly and indirectly, creating a double whammy for coral reefs already stressed by ocean acidification around the world," said co-author Megan Donahue, researcher at HIMB. "Our data indicate that both local management efforts such as reducing nutrient run-off and seepage into groundwater, and global actions, such as reducing global carbon dioxide emissions, are required to protect reefs from rapidly declining."

In the future, the research team will focus on how other reef constituents such as fishes interact with these processes to impact coral reef ecosystem functioning, because reefs are complex networks and these interactions are critical to resilience.

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marine biology; ecology research; sea life; fish; coral reefs; ecology; global warming; environmental issues

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Nutrient pollution makes ocean acidification worse for coral reefs

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
A study published recently by a team of researchers, alumni and students from the University of Hawai'i at Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) showed that local impacts of humans -- nutrient pollution from activities on land -- may accelerate the negative impacts of global ocean acidification on coral reefs.

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Tropical deforestation is based on identifiable regional patterns of casual factor synergies of which are the most predominate are economic factors.

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Proximate Causes and Underlying Driving Forces of Tropical Deforestation

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Amelung, T. and M. Diehl. 1992. Deforestation of Tropical Rain Forests: Economic Causes and Impact on Development. Tübingen (Germany): J. C. B. Mohr. Google Scholar Angelsen, A. and D. Kaimowitz. 1999. Rethinking the causes of deforestation: Lessons from economic models. World Bank Research Observer 14:73-98. Crossref, PubMed, Google Scholar Bilsborrow, R.

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Deforestation is sweeping earth's forests on a massive scale which is damaging the quality of the land. The most dramatic impact is a loss of habitat for millions of species

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As the world seeks to slow the pace of climate change, preserve wildlife, and support more than eight billion people, trees inevitably hold a major part of the answer. Yet the mass destruction of trees-deforestation-continues, sacrificing the long-term benefits of standing trees for short-term gain of fuel, and materials for manufacturing and construction.

We need trees for a variety of reasons, not least of which is that they absorb the carbon dioxide we exhale and the heat-trapping greenhouse gases that human activities emit. As those gases enter the atmosphere, global warming increases, a trend scientists now prefer to call climate change.

There is also the imminent danger of disease caused by deforestation. An estimated 60 percent of emerging infectious diseases come from animals, and a major cause of viruses' jump from wildlife to humans is habitat loss, often through deforestation.

But we can still save our forests. Aggressive efforts to rewild and reforest are already showing success. Tropical tree cover alone can provide 23 percent of the climate mitigation needed to meet goals set in the Paris Agreement in 2015, according to one estimate.

Causes of deforestation

Forests still cover about 30 percent of the world's land area, but they are disappearing at an alarming rate. Since 1990, the world has lost more than 420 million hectares or about a billion acres of forest, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations-mainly in Africa and South America. About 17 percent of the Amazonian rainforest has been destroyed over the past 50 years, and losses recently have been on the rise. The organization Amazon Conservation reports that destruction rose by 21 percent in 2020, a loss the size of Israel.

Farming, grazing of livestock, mining, and drilling combined account for more than half of all deforestation. Forestry practices, wildfires and, in small part, urbanization account for the rest. In Malaysia and Indonesia, forests are cut down to make way for producing palm oil, which can be found in everything from shampoo to saltine crackers. In the Amazon, cattle ranching and farms-particularly soy plantations-are key culprits.

Logging operations, which provide the world's wood and paper products, also fell countless trees each year. Loggers, some of them acting illegally, also build roads to access more and more remote forests-which leads to further deforestation. Forests are also cut as a result of growing urban sprawl as land is developed for homes.

Not all deforestation is intentional. Some is caused by a combination of human and natural factors like wildfires and overgrazing, which may prevent the growth of young trees.

Why it matters

There are some 250 million people who live in forest and savannah areas and depend on them for subsistence and income-many of them among the world's rural poor.

Eighty percent of Earth's land animals and plants live in forests, and deforestation threatens species including the orangutan, Sumatran tiger, and many species of birds. Removing trees deprives the forest of portions of its canopy, which blocks the sun's rays during the day and retains heat at night. That disruption leads to more extreme temperature swings that can be harmful to plants and animals.

With wild habitats destroyed and human life ever expanding, the line between animal and human areas blurs, opening the door to zoonotic diseases. In 2014, for example, the Ebola virus killed over 11,000 people in West Africa after fruit bats transmitted the disease to a toddler who was playing near trees where bats were roosting.

(How deforestation is leading to more infectious diseases in humans.)

Some scientists believe there could be as many as 1.7 million currently "undiscovered" viruses in mammals and birds, of which up to 827,000 could have the ability to infect people, according to a 2018 study.

Deforestation's effects reach far beyond the people and animals where trees are cut. The South American rainforest, for example, influences regional and perhaps even global water cycles, and it's key to the water supply in Brazilian cities and neighboring countries. The Amazon actually helps furnish water to some of the soy farmers and beef ranchers who are clearing the forest. The loss of clean water and biodiversity from all forests could have many other effects we can't foresee, touching even your morning cup of coffee.

In terms of climate change, cutting trees both adds carbon dioxide to the air and removes the ability to absorb existing carbon dioxide. If tropical deforestation were a country, according to the World Resources Institute, it would rank third in carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions, behind China and the U.S.

What can be done

The numbers are grim, but many conservationists see reasons for hope. A movement is under way to preserve existing forest ecosystems and restore lost tree cover by first reforesting (replanting trees) and ultimately rewilding (a more comprehensive mission to restore entire ecosystems).

(Which nation could be the first to be rewilded?)

Organizations and activists are working to fight illegal mining and logging-National Geographic Explorer Topher White, for example, has come up with a way to use recycled cell phones to monitor for chainsaws. In Tanzania, the residents of Kokota have planted more than 2 million trees on their small island over a decade, aiming to repair previous damage. And in Brazil, conservationists are rallying in the face of ominous signals that the government may roll back forest protections.

(Which tree planting projects should you support?)

Stopping deforestation before it reaches a critical point will play a key role in avoiding the next zoonotic pandemic. A November 2022 study showed that when bats struggle to find suitable habitat, they travel closer to human communities where diseases are more likely to spillover. Inversely, when bats' native habitats were left intact, they stayed away from humans. This research is the first to show how we can predict and avoid spillovers through monitoring and maintaining wildlife habitats.

For consumers, it makes sense to examine the products and meats you buy, looking for sustainably produced sources when you can. Nonprofit groups such as the Forest Stewardship Council and the Rainforest Alliance certify products they consider sustainable, while the World Wildlife Fund has a palm oil scorecard for consumer brands.

Editor's note: This story was originally published on February 2019. It has been updated.

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Deforestation and Its Effect on the Planet

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Large scale destruction of trees-deforestation-affects ecosystems, climate, and even increases risk for zoonotic diseases spreading to humans.

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Direct causes of deforestation are agricultural expansion, wood extraction and infrastructure expansion such as road building and urbanization. Rarely is there a single direct cause for deforestation, multiple processes work simultaneously to cause deforestation.

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Tropical Deforestation : Feature Articles

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Tropical forests are home to half the Earth's species, and their trees are an immense standing reservoir of carbon. Deforestation will have increasingly serious consequences for biodiversity, humans, and climate.

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Deforestation has unfortunately been practiced throughout history. 90 percent of continental United States' indigenous forest has been removed since 1600.

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Deforestation can include clearing the land for farming or livestock, or using the timber for fuel, construction or manufacturing.

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According to the WCN, cars and trucks account for about 14 percent of global carbon emissions, while most analysts attribute upwards of 15 percent to deforestation.

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Dear EarthTalk: Is it true that cutting and burning trees adds more global warming pollution to the atmosphere than all the cars and trucks in the world combined?- Mitchell Vale, Houston
By most accounts, deforestation in tropical rainforests adds more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than the sum total of cars and trucks on the world's roads. According to the World Carfree Network (WCN), cars and trucks account for about 14 percent of global carbon emissions, while most analysts attribute upwards of 15 percent to deforestation.

The reason that logging is so bad for the climate is that when trees are felled they release the carbon they are storing into the atmosphere, where it mingles with greenhouse gases from other sources and contributes to global warming accordingly. The upshot is that we should be doing as much to prevent deforestation as we are to increase fuel efficiency and reduce automobile usage.

According to the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), a leading green group, 32 million acres of tropical rainforest were cut down each year between 2000 and 2009-and the pace of deforestation is only increasing. "Unless we change the present system that rewards forest destruction, forest clearing will put another 200 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere in coming decades...," says EDF.

"Any realistic plan to reduce global warming pollution sufficiently-and in time-to avoid dangerous consequences must rely in part on preserving tropical forests," reports EDF. But it's hard to convince the poor residents of the Amazon basin and other tropical regions of the world to stop cutting down trees when the forests are still worth more dead than alive. "Conservation costs money, while profits from timber, charcoal, pasture and cropland drive people to cut down forests," adds EDF. Exacerbating global warming isn't the only negative impact of tropical deforestation. It also wipes out biodiversity: More than half of the world's plant and animal species live in tropical rainforests.

One way some tropical countries are reducing deforestation is through participation in the United Nations' Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) program. REDD essentially works to establish incentives for the people who care for the forest to manage it sustainably while still being able to benefit economically. Examples include using less land (and therefore cutting fewer trees) for activities such as coffee growing and meat and milk production. Participating nations can then accrue and sell carbon pollution credits when they can prove they have lowered deforestation below a baseline. The REDD program has channeled over $117 million in direct financial aid and educational support into national deforestation reduction efforts in 44 developing countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America since its 2008 inception.

Brazil is among the countries embracing REDD among other efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Thanks to the program, Brazil has slowed deforestation within its borders by 40 percent since 2008 and is on track to achieve an 80 percent reduction by 2020. Environmentalists are optimistic that the initial success of REDD in Brazil bodes well for reducing deforestation in other parts of the tropics as well.

CONTACTS: WCN, www.worldcarfree.net; EDF, www.edf.org; REDD, www.un-redd.org.

EarthTalk® is written and edited by Roddy Scheer and Doug Moss and is a registered trademark of E - The Environmental Magazine (www.emagazine.com). Send questions to: earthtalk@emagazine.com. Subscribe: www.emagazine.com/subscribe. Free Trial Issue: www.emagazine.com/trial.

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united nations’ reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation

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Deforestation and Its Extreme Effect on Global Warming

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Dear EarthTalk: Is it true that cutting and burning trees adds more global warming pollution to the atmosphere than all the cars and trucks in the world combined? - Mitchell Vale, Houston By most accounts, deforestation in tropical rainforests adds more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than the sum total of cars and trucks on the world's roads.

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Climate change makes new challenges for biodiversity conservation. Species ranges and ecological dynamics are already responding to recent climate shifts, and current reserves will not continue to support all species they were designed to protect.

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Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations

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Climate change creates new challenges for biodiversity conservation. Species ranges and ecological dynamics are already responding to recent climate s...

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Global assessments of the potential impact on climate change on the world food supply tells us that the carbon dioxide concentration will soon show a decrease in the global crop production.

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The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions.

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Abstract

Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42% and 45-63% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86% and 17-86%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (≈60% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability.

Methods

Data Sources. Species' distribution data are available for 2,294 plants ( 20), comprising ≈20% of the total European flora, sampled between 1972 and 1996. Modeling was conducted by using available data for Europe on a 50 × 50 km grid. The mapped area comprises western, northern and southern Europe, but excludes most of the eastern European countries where recording effort was both less uniform and less intensive ( 21). After removing species with <20 records, we considered range responses of 1,350 plant species of Europe. We assume this sample can be taken as representative of the responses of European plant species to climate change because it includes most of the life forms and phytogeographic patterns found among plant species in Europe.

Climate data were obtained from the Climatic Research Unit ( www.cru.uea.ac.uk) and included mean annual, winter, and summer precipitation, mean annual temperature and minimum temperature of the coldest month (MTC), growing degree days (>5°) and an index of moisture availability ( 22). These variables were chosen because of their strong link with the physiology and growth of plant species ( 23, 24). For instance, MTC discriminates species based on their ability to assimilate soil water and nutrients, and continue cell division, differentiation and tissue growth at low temperatures (lower limit), and chilling requirements for processes such as bud break and seed germination (upper limit). The moisture index discriminates species through processes related to phenology, rooting strategy, leaf morphology, and xylem vulnerability to cavitation. However, because there is surprisingly little experimental work for any particular species to guide the choice of bioclimatically limiting variables, the variables are generic and represent a hypothetical minimum basic set for niche-based modeling. Climate data were averaged for the 1961-1990 period. The data were supplied on a 10-foot (1 ft = 0.3 m) grid covering Europe. They were aggregated by averaging to 50 × 50 km Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) to match the species data grid. Niche-based models were calibrated on the 50 × 50 km UTM grid, and modeled species distributions were projected back onto the 10′ grid for current and future climate.

Future projections were derived by using climate model outputs made available through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Data Distribution Centre ( ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk). ‡‡ The modeled climate anomalies were scaled based on four scenarios proposed by the IPCC ( 12). The A1 scenario describes a globalized world with rapid economic growth and global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter and assumes rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Concentrations of CO ₂ increase from 380 ppm in 2000 to 800 ppm in 2080, and temperature rises by 3.6 K ( 12). The A2 scenario describes a heterogeneous world with regionally oriented economic development. Per capita economic growth and technological change are slower than in the other scenarios. Global concentrations of CO ₂ increase from 380 ppm in 2000 to 700 ppm in 2080, and temperature rises by 2.8 K. The B1 scenario describes a convergent world with global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in A1, but with a rapid change toward a service and information economy and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technology. Concentrations of CO ₂ increase from 380 ppm in 2000 to 520 ppm in 2080, and temperature rises by 1.8 K. The B2 scenario describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to socioeconomic and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population (at a rate lower than A2), intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 scenarios. Concentrations of CO ₂ increase from 380 ppm in 2000 to 550 ppm in 2080, and temperature rises by 2.1 K ( 12).

We did not assess the impacts of land-use change, even though this factor will potentially compound the effects of climate change on species distributions ( 25). However, given the spatial extent and resolution of our data and the magnitude of climate change in most projections, the effect of land use would be most likely overridden by climate ( 26, 27).

Niche-Based Models of Species Climatic Envelops. We used the biomod framework, which capitalizes on several widely used niche-based modeling techniques (generalized linear models, generalized additive models, classification tree analysis, and artificial neural networks) to provide alternative spatial projections ( 13). For each climate change scenario, models relating species distributions to the seven bioclimatic variables were fitted by using biomod and projected into the future. Then, a consensus principal component analysis was run to explore central tendencies in projections and select the niche-based model representing the greatest commonality among projections ( 8).

There is increasing evidence that model projections can be extremely variable, and there remains a need to test the accuracy of models and to reduce uncertainties ( 8, 28, 29). One recent analysis has however provided the first test of the predictive accuracy of such models by using bird observed species' range shifts and climate change in two periods of the recent past ( 30). This work provides validation of niche-based models under climate change and demonstrated how uncertainty can be reduced by selecting the most consensual projections, as done in this study. We are therefore confident that this strategy provides a robust and defensible approach to species range projections for the purposes of conservation planning and biodiversity management.

To evaluate species extinction risks, we summed the number of pixels lost, potentially gained (under universal migration), or stable by each species for the different climate-change scenarios. We assigned each species to an International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) threat category (IUCN 2001). Those that were not listed were classified as lower risk, depending on the projected reduction in range size from present to 2080. Present and future range sizes (area of occupancy) were estimated from the number of pixels where species occurred. Loss in range size was calculated by subtracting future potential range size from present potential range size. In line with IUCN Red List criterion A3(c), the following thresholds were then used to assign a species to a threat category (IUCN 2001). Extinct is a species with a projected range loss of 100% in 50 or 80 years, critically endangered has a projected range loss of >80%, endangered has a projected range loss of >50%, and vulnerable has a projected range loss of >30%. Although this Red Listing approach is simplistic and considers only the effects of climate change, it provides a synthetic overview of species-specific threats due to climate change.

To evaluate the percentage of extinctions for a given area, we summed the number of species lost ( L) by pixel and related it to current species richness by pixel. The procedure was the same to assess the percentage of species gained ( G) by pixel (under assumptions that species could reach a new suitable climate space). Percentage of species turnover by pixel, under the assumption of universal migration, is then given by T = 100 × ( L + G)/( SR + G) where SR is the current species richness.

Results and Discussion

Many European species could be threatened by future climate change ( Fig. 1). Under the assumption of no migration, more than half of the species we considered become vulnerable or committed to extinction by 2080. The impacts of climate change are, naturally, less under the universal migration because of the possibility for species to move across landscapes. Under the no-migration assumption and the most severe climate change scenario (A1-HadCM3), 22% of the species become critically endangered (>80% range loss), and 2% extinct by 2080. These numbers decrease for the other scenarios and climate models. Under the universal migration assumption, the results are, as expected, less severe. Under tA1-HadCM3, 67% of species would be classified as low risk, whereas under B1-HadCM3, 76% of the species would be at low risk.

Our results coincide with the direction of predictions made by Thomas et al. ( 11), although the magnitude of the risks we project is less [and note that we project distributions to 2080, whereas Thomas et al. ( 11) only projected to 2050].

Niche-based modeling does not address the proximate causes of species extinction. Nevertheless, any reduction in the potential geographic range of a species is likely to lead to an increased risk of local extinction ( 11). This conclusion is, in fact, the rationale for building IUCN Red Lists ( 31). A decrease in range size implies that smaller stochastic events affect a larger proportion of the species' total population, especially in fragmented landscapes. If a species becomes restricted to a few sites, then local catastrophic events (such as droughts or disease outbreaks) or an increase of land transformation by humans could easily cause the extinction of that species ( 32).

Rates of species' loss and turnover show great variation across scenarios ( Fig. 2). In A1-HadCM3, the mean European temperature increases by up to 4.4 K, leading to a mean species loss of 42% and turnover of 63%. This scenario provides the widest range of variability across Europe for both species loss (2.5-86%) and turnover (22-90%). The percentage of species loss could exceed 80% in some areas, such as northcentral Spain and the Cevennes and Massif Central in France. B1-HadCM3 gives the lowest expected mean percentage of species loss (27%), reflecting the fact that this scenario has the lowest rate of increase in CO ₂ and temperature by 2080 (mean European temperature increase of 2.7 K). Other scenarios show intermediate mean rates of species loss (≈30%) and turnover (≈50%).

The relationship between the modeled percentage of species loss and the anomalies for the two most significantly correlated bioclimatic variables, growing-degree days (representing accumulated warmth) and a moisture availability index, was used to uncover the potential causes of variations in predicted changes in plant diversity across regions within and across scenarios ( Fig. 3). The strong consistent linear relationship across scenarios indicates that projected species loss from our models could be estimated from these two predictors. The Spearman rank-correlation values for the separate univariate relationships were 0.73 and 0.65, respectively. Multiple-linear regression by using these two predictors explains 60% of the variance across scenarios. The temperature of the coldest month, although being an important predictor of distributions for many species ( 6), did not show a strong relationship with species loss overall and was therefore not used in this analysis.

Regional deviations from the inferred relationship (positive and negative residuals) can be interpreted as indications of particularly high or low species vulnerability, because of ecological and historical characteristics of the flora, and/or specific environmental conditions ( Fig. 4). An excess of species loss (red color) is shown for mountain regions (mid-altitude Alps, mid-altitude Pyrenees, central Spain, French Cevennes, Balkans, Carpathians). Severe climatic conditions have occurred in mountains over evolutionary times, promoting highly specialized species with strong adaptation to the limited opportunities for growth and survival ( 33). The narrow habitat tolerances of the mountain flora, in conjunction with marginal habitats for many species, are likely to promote higher rates of species loss for a similar climate anomaly than in any other part of Europe ( 34). By contrast, the southern Mediterranean and part of the Pannonian regions have a negative residual for species loss (gray color). Both regions are characterized by hot and dry summers and are occupied by species that tolerate strong heat and drought. Under the scenarios used here, these species are likely to continue to be well adapted to future conditions.

We finally present mean percentages of species loss and turnover by environmental zones (M. Metzger, unpublished data) with the A1-HadCM3 scenario of maximum change to best illustrate the spatial patterns ( Fig. 5). The major spatial patterns are similar over all scenarios. The northern Mediterranean (52%), Lusitanian (60%) and Mediterranean mountain (62%) regions are the most sensitive regions; the Boreal (29%), northern Alpine (25%), and Atlantic (31%) regions are consistently less sensitive. Species turnover shows a somewhat different pattern. The Boreal region could, in principle, gain many species from further south, leading to a high species turnover (66%). The Pannonian region could also theoretically gain eastern Mediterranean species and has a calculated turnover of 66%. Thus, these regions stand to lose a substantial part of their plant species diversity, and (in time) to show a major change in floristic composition. Projected species turnover peaks at the transition between the Mediterranean and continental regions ( Fig. 5) with extirpation of Euro-Siberian species and expansion for Mediterranean or Atlantic species. Southern Fennoscandia is also an area of high potential turnover with the loss of boreal species and gain of Euro-Siberian species.

These results cannot be taken as precise forecasts given the uncertainties in climate change scenarios, the coarse spatial resolution of the analysis ( 35), and uncertainties in the modeling techniques used ( 8, 29). The relatively coarse grid scale of our study may hide potential refuges for species and environmental heterogeneity that could enhance species survival, especially in mountain areas where our estimation of risks of extinctions could be overestimated. On the other hand, landscape fragmentation could increase the vulnerability of these refuges to fire or other disturbances, which in combination with the lack of propagule flow, could compromise the survival of remnant populations. There are also major uncertainties due to lags associated with biotic processes. The recognized time scales for assigning species IUCN Red List categories are not suited to evaluating the consequences of slow-acting but persistent threats. We have substituted a time scale of 80 years (instead of 20) for critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable, respectively, over which to assess declines. The extent of species losses may be overestimated, because the plasticity of species and the survival of species in favorable microhabitats is not considered. However, even if the numbers are overestimated, patterns across regions may stand (e.g., the ranking of region in terms of vulnerability to loss). Species loss does not necessarily imply the immediate loss of a species from a site, rather it may imply a potential lack of reproductive success and recruitment that will tend to extinction on a longer time scale ( 36). Migration rates are likely to be species-specific, and resulting biotic interactions in "no-analogue" assemblages may alter species' realized niches.

Land use and associated habitat fragmentation are likely to generally inhibit migration rates ( 19). Further, future species distributions will likely be influenced by other environmental factors than changing climate. The current atmospheric CO ₂ concentration exceeds any experienced during the past 20 million years ( 12). Plant physiological responses, including growth responses to increased atmospheric CO ₂ and changes in wateruse efficiency, are expected to ameliorate the response of some plant functional types to climate change ( 37). On the other hand, nitrogen deposition, the enhanced potential for invasion by exotic species, or the promotion of more competitive native species may change competitive interactions in plant communities, yielding novel patterns of dominance and ecosystem function ( 38).

Despite uncertainties, our findings provide illustration of the potential importance and the likely direction of climate change effects. From a conservation perspective, a proportion of European plant species could become vulnerable. The strong positive relationship between projected species loss and changes in bioclimatic variables implies that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would also mitigate climate-change effects on plant diversity. However, even under the least severe scenario considered, the risks to biodiversity appear to be considerable. Different regions are expected to respond differently to climate change, with the greatest vulnerability in mountain regions and the least in the southern Mediterranean and Pannonian regions. Recent observations ( 39) and predictions ( 9) corroborate our conclusion regarding the climatic sensitivity of species in European mountain areas. We have also identified a broad transition zone where the greatest species mixing is likely to occur. During the Quaternary period, this region acted both as a crossing point and a refuge zone for Boreo-alpine and Euro-Siberian species ( 40). This transition zone will be a strategic region for plant-species conservation in a changing climate.

Acknowledgments

M.B.A. thanks T. Lathi and R. Lampinen for providing a digital version of Atlas Florae Europaeae. We thank M. Erhard (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany) for repackaging and aggregating original climate data into the Atlas Florae Europaeae grid and M. Metzger for his environmental classification of Europe. This research was funded by the integrated projects of the European Commission's FP5 Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modeling (EVK2-CT-2000-00075) and FP6 Assessing Large-Scale Environmental Risks with Tested Methods (GOCE-CT-2003-506675).

Footnotes

↵ § To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: thuiller{at}sanbi.org .

Author contributions: W.T. and S.L. designed research; W.T. performed research; W.T., S.L., M.B.A., M.T.S., and I.C.P. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; W.T. and M.B.A. analyzed data; and W.T., S.L., M.B.A., M.T.S., and I.C.P. wrote the paper.

This paper was submitted directly (Track II) to the PNAS office.

Abbreviation: IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources.

↵ ‡‡ Mitchell, T. D., Carter, T. R., Jones, P. D., Hulme, M. & New, M. (2004) A Comprehensive Set of High-Resolution Grids of Monthly Climate for Europe and the Globe: The Observed Record (1901-2000) and 16 Scenarios (2001-2100) (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Res., Norwich, U.K.), Working Paper 55.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

View Abstract

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Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios.

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What is new about the ensembles results is that they describe in far greater detail how the climate is expected to change under standard scenarios of future emissions

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CiteULike: ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts - Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project

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P. van der Linden, J. F. B. Mitchell. (2009). The climate projections generated in ENSEMBLES describe the world and Europe experiencing tangible,measurable climate change. As the century progresses the projected climate moves increasingly fartheraway from its current state, so that by 2100 the climate of Europe will be very different from today.

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Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growing energy crops on spare lands.

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Soil Carbon Sequestration Impacts on Global Climate Change and Food Security

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The carbon sink capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils is 50 to 66% of the historic carbon loss of 42 to 78 gigatons of carbon. The rate of soil organic carbon sequestration with adoption of recommended technologies depends on soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature, farming system, and soil management.

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To illustrate how civilization-planet systems co-evolve, Frank and his collaborators developed a mathematical model to show ways in which a technologically advanced population and its planet might develop together.

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In the face of climate change, deforestation and biodiversity loss, creating a sustainable version of civilization is one of humanity's most urgent tasks. But when confronting this immense challenge, we rarely ask what may be the most pressing question of all: How do we know if sustainability is even possible? Astronomers have inventoried a sizable share of the universe's stars, galaxies, comets, and black holes. But are planets with sustainable civilizations also something the universe contains? Or does every civilization that may have arisen in the cosmos last only a few centuries before it falls to the climate change it triggers?

Astrophysicist Adam Frank, a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Rochester, is part of a group of researchers who have taken the first steps to answer these questions. In a new study published in the journal Astrobiology, the group -- including Frank, Jonathan Carroll-Nellenback, a senior computational scientist at Rochester, Martina Alberti of the University of Washington, and Axel Kleidon of the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry -- addresses these questions from an "astrobiological" perspective.

"Astrobiology is the study of life and its possibilities in a planetary context," says Frank, who is also author of the new book Light of the Stars: Alien Worlds and the Fate of the Earth, which draws on this study. "That includes 'exo-civilizations' or what we usually call aliens."

Frank and his colleagues point out that discussions about climate change rarely take place in this broader context -- one that considers the probability that this is not the first time in cosmic history that a planet and its biosphere have evolved into something like what we've created on Earth. "If we're not the universe's first civilization," Frank says, "that means there are likely to be rules for how the fate of a young civilization like our own progresses."

As a civilization's population grows, it uses more and more of its planet's resources. By consuming the planet's resources, the civilization changes the planet's conditions. In short, civilizations and planets don't evolve separately from one another; they evolve interdependently, and the fate of our own civilization depends on how we use Earth's resources.

In order to illustrate how civilization-planet systems co-evolve, Frank and his collaborators developed a mathematical model to show ways in which a technologically advanced population and its planet might develop together. By thinking of civilizations and planets -- even alien ones -- as a whole, researchers can better predict what might be required for the human project of civilization to survive.

"The point is to recognize that driving climate change may be something generic," Frank says. "The laws of physics demand that any young population, building an energy-intensive civilization like ours, is going to have feedback on its planet. Seeing climate change in this cosmic context may give us better insight into what's happening to us now and how to deal with it."

Using their mathematical model, the researchers found four potential scenarios that might occur in a civilization-planet system:

1. Die-off: The population and the planet's state (indicated by something like its average temperature) rise very quickly. Eventually, the population peaks and then declines rapidly as the rising planetary temperature makes conditions harder to survive. A steady population level is achieved, but it's only a fraction of the peak population. "Imagine if 7 out of 10 people you knew died quickly," Frank says. "It's not clear a complex technological civilization could survive that kind of change."

2. Sustainability: The population and the temperature rise but eventually both come to steady values without any catastrophic effects. This scenario occurs in the models when the population recognizes it is having a negative effect on the planet and switches from using high-impact resources, such as oil, to low-impact resources, such as solar energy.

3. Collapse without resource change: The population and temperature both rise rapidly until the population reaches a peak and drops precipitously. In these models civilization collapses, though it is not clear if the species itself completely dies outs.

4. Collapse with resource change: The population and the temperature rise, but the population recognizes it is causing a problem and switches from high-impact resources to low-impact resources. Things appear to level off for a while, but the response turns out to have come too late, and the population collapses anyway.

"The last scenario is the most frightening," Frank says. "Even if you did the right thing, if you waited too long, you could still have your population collapse."

The researchers created their models based in part on case studies of extinct civilizations, such as the inhabitants of Easter Island. People began colonizing the island between 400 and 700 AD and grew to a peak population of 10,000 sometime between 1200 and 1500 AD. By the 18th century, however, the inhabitants had depleted their resources and the population dropped drastically to about 2,000 people.

The Easter Island population die-off relates to a concept called carrying capacity, or the maximum number of species an environment can support. The earth's response to civilization building is what climate change is really all about, Frank says. "If you go through really strong climate change, then your carrying capacity may drop, because, for example, large-scale agriculture might be strongly disrupted. Imagine if climate change caused rain to stop falling in the Midwest. We wouldn't be able to grow food, and our population would diminish."

Right now researchers can't definitively predict the fate of the earth. The next steps will be to use more detailed models of the ways planets might behave when a civilization consumes energy of any form to grow. In the meantime, Frank issues a sober warning.

"If you change the earth's climate enough, you might not be able to change it back," he says. "Even if you backed off and started to use solar or other less impactful resources, it could be too late, because the planet has already been changing. These models show we can't just think about a population evolving on its own. We have to think about our planets and civilizations co-evolving."

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extrasolar planets; kuiper belt; eris (xena); astrophysics; environmental awareness; climate; global warming; environmental issues

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Alien apocalypse: Can any civilization make it through climate change?

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Does the universe contain planets with truly sustainable civilizations? Or does every civilization that may have arisen in the cosmos last only a few centuries before it falls to the climate change it triggers? Astrophysicists have developed a mathematical model to illustrate how a technologically advanced population and its planet might develop together, putting climate change in a cosmic context.

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New research has revealed that metal-related pollution began in the Balkans more than 500 years before it appeared in western Europe, and persisted throughout the Dark Ages and Medieval Period, meaning the region played a far bigger role in mineral exploitation than previously believed.

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New research from Northumbria University has revealed that metal-related pollution began in the Balkans more than 500 years before it appeared in western Europe, and persisted throughout the Dark Ages and Medieval Period, meaning the region played a far bigger role in mineral exploitation than previously believed.

The study provides a new perspective on both the timing and extent of metallurgy -- the technique of extracting metal from ores prior to heating or working with metals to give them a desired shape -- in the Balkans, and the associated economic change this brought to the region, such as the inception of the Metal Ages.

The findings are published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ( PNAS) today (Monday 28 May 2018).

The exploitation of mineral resources has a broad range of environmental impacts, including metal-contaminated wastewater and the release of microscopic chemical particles into the atmosphere from mining and smelting. As these particles settle on to the surface of a peat bog, an environment in which the sediment develops year on year, a clear history of the bog's development may be established.

Samples recovered from the Crveni Potok peat bog, located on the Serbia/Montenegro border, were geochemically examined by researchers from Northumbria's Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences alongside colleagues from the University of Montpellier and the Romanian Academy. They found the first clear evidence of metal pollution originating from lead in the region dating back to approximately 3600 BC.

The evidence is supported by a concurrent rise in charcoal concentration, which suggests an increase in biomass burning which is potentially related to a broad range of economic activities, including fuel production for metal smelting.

Previously, the oldest European environmental pollution dating to circa 3000 BC had been found in southern Spain, but the new data from Crveni Potok show that metal pollution was evident in this region of eastern Europe more than 500 years earlier. This evidence is the earliest documented in European environmental records and indicates environmental pollution from metallurgy at a time when Britons were still in the Stone Age. This confirms that the Balkans were not only the birthplace of metallurgy in Europe, but also of metallic pollution.

Furthermore, levels of lead pollution decreased dramatically in western Europe after the collapse of the Roman Empire, a feature not observed in this Balkan record. This suggests that the region -- which is metal rich -- should be considered more of a major player in environmental metal pollution through Dark and Middle Ages than previously thought.

This contrast between eastern and western Europe indicates that while western Europe was in the 'Dark Ages' there was significant economic development in the Balkan area with high levels of metal environmental pollution throughout the Medieval period. This confirms the large extent and size of the metalworking industry in the Balkans during this era.

As part of his PhD research Jack Longman uncovered these findings supervised by Dr Vasile Ersek, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography in the University's Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences.

Dr Ersek explained: "Much of the focus in determining sources of ancient pollution has been on established sources such as the Romans or ancient Greeks, but these findings highlight the crucial role that the Balkan metallurgy has played in the economic development of the area.

"Metallurgy and mining is intimately linked to socioeconomic development, therefore improving our knowledge of how these resources were exploited in the past can help us understand better how societies developed over time. In this respect, the peat bog record from Crveni Potok provides a fascinating history of pollution from the early Bronze Age through to the Industrial Revolution."

Dr Longman added: "What is most interesting is that after the Roman Empire falls in the third and fourth centuries AD, lead pollution continues and even increases, indicating that the strong mining and smelting culture developed by the Romans was continued by the local population. This goes against the long-held view of barbaric hordes with little technological know-how ousting the Romans leading to the Dark Ages -- as we term the 1,000 years following the Roman period. These Dark Ages may well have been true in much of western Europe, but in the Balkans, it seems that this period was, in fact, rather 'well-lit'."

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environmental issues; pollution; environmental science; air quality; ancient civilizations; fossils; archaeology; origin of life

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Earliest European evidence of lead pollution uncovered in the Balkans: Metal-related pollution began in the Balkans more than 500 years before it appeared in western Europe

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New research has revealed that metal-related pollution began in the Balkans more than 500 years before it appeared in western Europe, and persisted throughout the Dark Ages and Medieval Period, meaning the region played a far bigger role in mineral exploitation than previously believed.

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Global warming can be limited to 1.5°C by unprecedented improvements in the energy efficiency of everyday activities, according to new research

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Global warming can be limited to 1.5°C by unprecedented improvements in the energy efficiency of everyday activities, according to new research from an international team of scientists at IIASA.

A new study published in Nature Energy shows that dramatic transformations in the way we move around, heat and cool our homes, and buy and use devices and appliances in our cities can help raise living standards in the global South to meet UN Sustainable Development Goals while also remaining within the 1.5°C target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. Improved living standards for all need not come with a large increase in energy demand at the expense of the global environment.

The study is also the first ever to show how the 1.5°C target can be reached without relying on unproven technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (CCS) which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and bury it.

Arnulf Grubler, lead author of the study and IIASA acting program director, says: "Our analysis shows how a range of new social, behavioral and technological innovations, combined with strong policy support for energy efficiency and low-carbon development can help reverse the historical trajectory of ever-rising energy demand."

Study co-author, Charlie Wilson, from IIASA and also the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, UK, adds: "A rapid down-sizing of the global energy system between now and 2050 makes it much more feasible to transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewables and electricity to provide for development needs while limiting the impacts of climate change."

The team examined a wide range of innovations at the fringes of current markets but which could help reduce emissions if they became mainstream. Drawing on detailed studies of energy used in transport, in homes and offices, and in the manufacture of consumer goods, they found evidence of 2-4 fold reductions in the amount of energy required to move people and goods around, to provide comfort in buildings, and to meet the material needs of growing populations, particularly in the global South.

They identified a number of key innovations, for example, shared and 'on-demand' fleets of more energy efficient electric vehicles with increased occupancy can reduce global energy demand for transport by 60% by 2050 while reducing the number of vehicles on the road. Single digital devices such as smartphones serving a wide range of functions combined with younger generations' preferences for accessing services instead of owning goods can limit the otherwise explosive growth in global energy demand to a mere 15% by 2050 for a digital economy with over twice the number of devices than are in use today.

Strict standards for the energy performance of new buildings as well as renovations of existing buildings can reduce energy demand from heating and cooling by 75% by 2050. In addition, shifting to a healthier diet with less red meat but similar calorific intake can significantly reduce emissions from agriculture, while increasing forest cover by 2050 equivalent to the size of Italy and Bangladesh combined.

"Changes in the ways that we as the final users of energy go about our daily lives have knock-on effects on the ways that goods are manufactured and transported around, offices and malls are built, and food is grown. It is us as energy users who ultimately define the potential for transforming our energy system to meet climate targets," says Grubler.

The study found that if the total global energy demand is reduced by 40% by 2050, with a strong emphasis on electrification, current rates of renewable energy deployment projected on into the future could more than meet the world's energy needs without having to rely on unproven technologies such as CCS to capture and store greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels or plant matter.

"Not only does our scenario show how to meet the 1.5°C climate target based on evidence on what is already possible, it also shows how this dramatic reversal in global emission trends supports a wide range of development objectives in the global South, from rising living standards to cleaner air and improved health," says Wilson.

However, the team emphasizes that making this scenario a reality will require unprecedented efforts by policymakers to tighten standards, by businesses to develop and roll out low-carbon innovations, and by individuals and households to embed new forms of activity into their daily lives.

"The global community from world leaders and multinational corporations down to individual consumers and citizens need to act in concert to avoid dangerous climate change while improving human wellbeing. Our scenario offers a roadmap as to how this can be achieved," says Grubler.

Journal Reference:

Arnulf Grubler, Charlie Wilson, Nuno Bento, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Volker Krey, David L. McCollum, Narasimha D. Rao, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Simon De Stercke, Jonathan Cullen, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Fei Guo, Matt Gidden, Petr Havlík, Daniel Huppmann, Gregor Kiesewetter, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang Schoepp, Hugo Valin. A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. Nature Energy, 2018; 3 (6): 515 DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

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numeracy; consumer behavior; psychology; energy and the environment; global warming; sustainability; energy issues; environmental policies; resource shortage

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Global warming can be limited to 1.5°C by changing how we travel, heat homes, use devices

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Global warming can be limited to 1.5°C by unprecedented improvements in the energy efficiency of everyday activities, according to new research from an international team of scientists at IIASA.

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Researchers use the length of time needed for deuterium concentrations to return to background levels and the temperature of the hot springs to calculate the amount of water and heat flowing out of the springs. Using deuterium for estimating heat flow is safe for the environment and has no visual impact to distract from the park visitors' experience.

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Researchers at Washington State University and the University of Idaho have found a new way to estimate how fast magma is recharging beneath the Yellowstone supervolcano. While their findings offer no help in predicting if the volcano will erupt, they can now get a better understanding of a key factor -- a pool of basalt magma recharging the system -- in how it works.

"It is the coal in the furnace that's heating things up," said Peter Larson, a professor in the Washington State University School of the Environment. "It's heating up the boiler. The boiler is what explodes. This tells us what is heating the boiler."

Some 640,000 years have passed since the volcano's last major eruption. But it can be "super," having produced one of the largest known blasts on Earth and spewing more than 2,000 times as much ash as Mount St. Helens did in 1980.

A major element in the volcano's power is the explosive, silica-rich rhyolite that break's through the Earth's crust during an eruption. Larson and his colleagues focused on the plume of basalt magma heating the rhyolite from below.

"This gives us an idea of how much magma is recharging the volcano every year," said Larson, whose findings appear in the latest issue of the journal Geosphere.

With funding from the National Science Foundation, the researchers "spiked" several hot springs in Yellowstone National Park with deuterium, a stable hydrogen isotope. The researchers used the length of time needed for deuterium concentrations to return to background levels and the temperature of the hot springs to calculate the amount of water and heat flowing out of the springs. Using deuterium for estimating heat flow is safe for the environment and has no visual impact to distract from the park visitors' experience.

The team found that previous studies underestimated the amount of water coursing through the springs and the amount of heat leaving the springs. The data also allowed the team to estimate the amount of magma entering the supervolcano from the mantle.

The study also has implications for geothermal energy, helping inform how heat is transported to the earth's surface from molten rock.

Journal Reference:

Nicholas McMillan, Peter Larson, Jerry Fairley, Joseph Mulvaney-Norris, Cary Lindsey. Direct measurement of advective heat flux from several Yellowstone hot springs, Wyoming, USA. Geosphere, 2018; DOI: 10.1130/GES01598.1

Cite This Page:

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volcanoes; geology; natural disasters; renewable energy; earth science; near-earth object impacts; water; geochemistry

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New way to estimate magma beneath Yellowstone supervolcano: 'This tells us what is heating the boiler'

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Researchers have found a new way to estimate how fast magma is recharging beneath the Yellowstone supervolcano. While their findings offer no help in predicting if the volcano will erupt, they can now get a better understanding of a key factor -- a pool of basalt magma recharging the system -- in how it works.