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We predict that Republican Martha McSally will win Arizona's 2018 Senatorial Election.

According to RealClearPolitics, McSally currently has 46% of the votes in Arizona. This includes polling information from the following source: New York Times, CBS News, ABC 15, and Fox News

McSally holds a 0.7% spread over her competitor Krysten Sinema. We believe this to be a strong piece of evidence because this public opinion poll accompanies four major media and news networks.

Statistically, Arizona has elected five Democratic Senators and six Republican Senators since 1912. In recent years, the last four elected Senators have been Republicans and since 1969 every elected Senator has been a Republican

To further back this up, Arizona has voted Republican in every single Presidential election since 1952 with the exclusion of Bill Clinton's 1996 victory

Arizona has statistically always been a Republican state and their voting patterns have remained constant

These three pieces of evidence currently show that McSally is ahead of Sinema in the public opinion polls and that her lead in steadily increasing

In addition to this, Arizona has consecutively elected Republican senators since 1969 and has remained constantly Republican in every single presidential election excluding 1996. This shows that Arizona is continuously a red republican state in federal elections

An alternative viewpoint may argue that McSally only has a minute advantage in polling data currently. While McSally is in the lead at 46%, Sinema closely follows with 45.3% collectively

With how close the opinion polls are, this election will most likely be highly competitive. Sinema could easily take the lead on election day and since the voting percentages are so close, the 4% margin of error could quite possibly give Sinema the lead

Public opinion polls are not always representative of the true voting population and can be completely inaccurate in some instances

An Election as competitive as Arizona's Senate Race could go either way and in the end we'll have to wait and see.

To wrap things up though we do believe that Arizona's many Republican voters will turn out and elect a seventh Republican Senator.

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“About.” McSally for Senate,

mcsallyforsenate.com/about/.

Bycoffe. “Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump.” FiveThirtyEight, 10 Oct. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/martha-mcsally/.

“Issues.” Congresswoman Martha McSally, 2018,

mcsally.house.gov/issues.

“List of United States Senators from Arizona.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Arizona.

Martha Mcsally Is the Rare Republican Woman Putting Gender At the Forefront Of Her Campaign, Li Zhou - https://www.vox.com/2018/8/29/17772958/arizona-senate-primary-martha-mcsally-gender

Mcsally Wins Arizona Senate Gop Primary Over Arpaio and Ward, Nbc Projects

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/arizona-senate-republican-primary-election-results-n904601

“Register to Vote or Update Your Current Voter Information.” Register to Vote or Update Your Current Voter Information | Arizona Secretary of State, Arizona Secretary of State, 2018, azsos.gov/elections/voting-election/register-vote-or-update-your-current-voter-information.

“Rep. Kyrsten Sinema - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, The Center for Responsive Politics, 2018, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033983.

“Rep. Martha McSally - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, The Center for Responsive Politics, 2018,

www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00033982&cycle=2018&type=C.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/137299/martha-mcsally.

“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, 2018, votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/28338/kyrsten-sinema.

“Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump.” FiveThirtyEight, 10 Oct. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/martha-mcsally/.

Hanson, Ronald.

“Voter Registration & Historical Election Data.” Voter Registration & Historical Election Data | Arizona Secretary of State, Arizona Secretary of State, 2018, azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data.

“Voting in Arizona.” Ballotpedia, Ballotpedia, 2018,

ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Arizona.

“U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Arizona.” Census Bureau QuickFacts, U.S Census Bureau, 2018,

www.census.gov/quickfacts/az.

"We polled voters in Arizona.” The New York Times, 2018,

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html

“2 Arizona Democrats Side with Donald Trump More Often than Some Republicans.” Azcentral, The Republic | Azcentral.com, 1 Apr. 2018,

www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/04/01/kyrsten-sinema-tom-ohalleran-side-donald-trump-more-often-than-some-republicans/471206002/.

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• Conducted by the New York Times from October 15th to October 19th

• Pollers called 39,289 Arizona residents from all over the state

• 606 of the people called answered and spoke to pollers

• 48% supported Republican candidate Martha McSally

• 46% supported Democratic candidate Kyrsten Sinema

• 6% were undecided

• 8% margin error for the overall lead

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Which Interest Groups are Spending Money

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Which Interest Groups are Spending Money

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Martha McSally has Raised  $12,637,152 dollars for the Arizona Senate Race. She had got this money from interest groups such as

Citizens for Prosperity in America today

Raytheon Co.

Elliott Management

Wtl Inc

All of these donations ranged from $279,000 to $29,700
She had also gained money from The Republican party too.

Kyrsten SInema has raised $15,688,595 for the 2018 Senate race. These are some of the groups that had donated money.

EMLIY's List

Democracy Engine

Paul, Weiss et al

Cresent Capital Group

Alphabet Inc

All of these donations range from $185,462 to $51,944

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Kyrsten Sinema believes that healthcare should become more affordable for everyone. She hasn't made any definitive stands on any other issues. However the way she has voted on issues while in the house of representatives,she has more moderate views

Martha McSally is running on increasing The United states military budget and securing the southern border of the U.S. She also is an avid supporter for Pro-life and gender equality. She hasn't taken a definitive stance on many other issues. She does have consistently conservative values though.

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Kyrsten Sinema had voted yes for 59.5% of the bills the trump administration proposed, even though her party views don't align with the views of the president Sinema did not openly support Donald Trump in the 2016 election however.

Martha McSally has voted 97.8% of the time with Donald trump while she was a member of the House of Representatives. McSally also openly supports Donald Trump. She had also supported Trump before the election also. Trump has mentioned McSally a number of times over the past couple of years.  Overall she voted for 68 times out of 70 with the views of the Trump Administration.

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This is a complete list of the groups Kyrsten Sinema endorses in the year 2018

American Federation of Government Employees

Arizona Education Association

Arizona Police Association

Arizona State AFL-CIO

Communications Workers of America

Emily's List

End Citizens United

Equality PAC

Feminist Majority Political Action Committee

Human Rights Campaign

League of Conservation Voters

LGBTQ Victory Fund

LPAC

National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare

National Education Association

National Organization for Women

Planned Parenthood Action Fund

Population Connection

Rachel's Action Network

Run with Pride

Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters

Stonewall Democrats of Arizona

United Mine Workers of America

This is a complete list of the groups Martha McSally endorses in 2018

Arizona Police Association

ClearPath Action Fund

Maggie's List

National Border Patrol Council

National Rifle Association

Republican Main Street Partnership

RightNow Women PAC

Value In Electing Women Political Action Committee (VIEW PAC)

Winning for Women

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Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema currently represents Arizona’s 9th Congressional District in the House of Representatives

Sinema has served in both chambers of State Legislature, having been elected to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2004 and the Arizona Senate in 2010

After being elected to Congress in 2012, Kyrsten joined the Democratic Blue Dog Coalition, a caucus of Representatives that identify as conservative Democrats,  and the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, which is group of 48 members who are equally divided between Democrats and Republicans.

Sinema has worked for the adoption of the DREAM Act and has campaigned against proposals to ban recognition of same-sex marriage in Arizona

She was also the first openly bisexual and atheist person elected to the U.S. Congress

Incumbency does not play a role in this election race as Kyrsten has held no seats in United States' Senate

Sinema has usually been labeled as a centrist or moderate Democrat

Her all time voting record placed her near the center of a liberal-conservative scale in the National Journal’s 2013 vote ratings

The National Journal also gave her an ideology score of 57% liberal and 43% conservative. According to FiveThirtyEight, as of July 2018, Sinema voted in line with Trump's position on legislation 59.5% of the time.

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In 2017 an estimated 7,016,270 people lived in Arizona

54.9% of the people were White

31.4% of the people were Hispanic

5.2% of the people were Native American

5% of the people were Black

3.5% of the people were Asian

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Congresswoman Martha McSally represents Arizona’s Second Congressional District in the House of Representatives

She was elected to the House of Representatives in 2014 after retiring in 2010 as a Colonel in the United States Air Force

Martha was the first woman ever to fly a fighter jet into combat and over her 26 year career accumulated 325 combat hours

She was deployed six times flying over Iraq and Afghanistan. During her career she earned a bronze star and six other combat medals

McSally defeated Joe Arpaio and Kelli Ward in the Senate GOP election. Martha swept the floor with 51.2% of the votes during the Arizona Republican Senate primary

Her competition, Kelli Ward had 28.6% and Joe Arpaio only had 20% of the total votes

Republican Senator Jeff Flake current holds the seat up for election and has decided to not run for re-election. Incumbency does not play a role in this election race

McSally is usually labeled as a moderate conservative as she has previously spoken out against comments made by current president Donald Trump

She has also placed gender equality as the backbone of her campaign. She has also been an avid supporter of Pro-Life and has argued that strict gun control legislation is unconstitutional

According to FiveThirtyEight, McSally voted in line with President Donald Trump on 97.8% on legislation but, she only supported Trump 57.6% of the time

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There were 3,588,466 registered voters for the election of 2016

There were 2,661,497 people who actually voted

This is a 74.17% voter turnout

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The day of the election in Arizona is November 6th

The deadline to have been a registered voter was October 9th

Arizona allows online registration but not same day registration

There is no requirement for photo identification when voting

However a non-photo I.D is needed in order to vote

Early voting starts October 10th and goes until November 2nd

Arizona does allow voting by mail

Arizona also allows absentee voters to have their ballots in by a deadline of November 6

Arizona's polls are open from 6:00 am until 7:00 pm

To be able to vote in Arizona, you have to be a citizen of Arizona, over 18 years of age and  U.S citizen

You cannot vote if you have committed a felony and have not had your rights given back to you