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By Madelyn Perez
Working Individually

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Post #2 Red Flag: Conformation Bias (Article)

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Post #2 Red Flag: Conformation Bias (Article)

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Definition: People will try and find ways to confirm their beliefs even when all evidence disproves those theories.

Connection: This article shows the many conspiracies that can be thrown away with the overwhelming scientific evidence disproving these theories. Point 3 discusses the anti-vaccine movement and how modern medicine proves these vaccines do indeed save lives. The anti-vax believe vaccines cause illness and disabilities resulting in parents with unvaccinated children, this leads to unvaccinated people being a fatal danger to themselves and others. This belief is completely untrue and has vaccines have been proven to be effective and safe many times.

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Karman Willmer, left, and Shelby Messenger protest against SB277, a measure requiring California school children to get vaccinated, on, June 9, 2015, in Sacramento. (Rich Pedroncelli/AP)

If NASA really faked the moon landing in 1969, about 411,000 people would have worked together to keep that information from the public, and the whole thing would have been exposed about four years later, according to an Oxford researcher who has found a mathematical way to examine the viability of conspiracy theories.

David Robert Grimes is a physicist and cancer researcher, but he also writes science pieces for the Irish Times and the Guardian. As a science writer, he's used to being contacted by people who adhere to science-based conspiracy theories, which generally involve accusing the scientific community at large of colluding on fake data for nefarious purposes, Oxford University said in a release about Grimes's new paper, published in PLOS this week.

[A researcher explains why hoaxes flourish on the social Web]

To help demonstrate the viability (or lack thereof) of several well-known conspiracy theories, Grimes wrote an equation to show just how hard it would be to keep large-scale conspiracies - if they were true - a secret.

"For a conspiracy of even a few thousand actors, intrinsic failure would arise within decades. For hundreds of thousands, such failure would be assured within less than half a decade," Grimes concluded. In other words: bad news for a lot of the Internet's most persistent conspiracies.

For instance, more than 440,000 people would have to be working together to fool the public if climate change deniers are correct. Grimes's equation calculated that such a conspiracy would have been exposed - either by an internal whistleblower or, accidentally - three years and nine months after it began.

"The results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1,000 agents) quickly become untenable and prone to failure," Grimes said.

How? The equation considers several factors, including the number of conspirators required over time to keep any given wrongdoing a secret, whether said conspiracy simply requires silence on the part of the people involved or active maintenance, and the rate at which those involved would die out over time, either because of natural causes or because of, uh, deliberate targeting.

The probability of exposure used in the equation comes from a handful of conspiracies that turned out to be true in real life: the U.S. mass surveillance tactics that were made public by whistleblower Edward Snowden; the Tuskegee syphilis experiment, where researchers unethically refused to give penicillin to African American men who were part of a syphilis study; and the FBI forensics scandal. Information about those conspiracies were interpreted to create a " 'best-case' scenario for the conspirators," for the sake of the equation, he said.

Grimes then used the equation to indicate the viability of four major conspiracy theories: climate change denial, anti-vaccination movements, the NASA moon hoax, and the cancer cure conspiracy - or the belief that a cure for cancer is being withheld from the public.

[When it comes to vaccination, people trust online commenters as much as doctors]

The full paper has a detailed rundown of how different interpretations of the size of the alleged conspiracy might affect the probability of exposure. For instance, the number of people involved in covering up a vaccination plot could either be about 22,000, or more than 700,000, depending on whether you believe pharmaceutical companies are colluding with the CDC and the World Health Organization, as many anti-vaccination believers do, or whether the companies were simply duped into furthering the conspirators' interests.

As you can see from the chart below, the inclusion of pharmaceutical companies in the vaccine makes a huge difference in the probable time to exposure. The same goes for whether the climate change coverup conspiracy involves only active climate research scientists, or whether it, as is more commonly alleged, includes all the scientific bodies endorsing the scientific consensus on the existence and cause of climate change:

These numbers represent the maximum time to imminent failure and are based on conservative assessments of the size of the alleged plots, even for the more widespread scenarios. They also don't take into account any possible external exposures of a conspiracy, which would only increase the likelihood of a conspiracy going public.

[What was fake on the Internet this week: Why this is the final column]

Recent research has shown that models like Grimes's, however clever they are, probably won't do very much to sway the minds of those who are invested in these conspiracy beliefs. The Intersect's Caitlin Dewey put it this way while discussing hoax news sites in her final installment of the " What was Fake on the Internet" series:

Institutional distrust is so high right now, and cognitive bias so strong always, that the people who fall for hoax news stories are frequently only interested in consuming information that conforms with their views - even when it's demonstrably fake.

Grimes, too, knows that "it is highly unlikely" that his equation would change the viewpoint of most conspiracy believers. But he ended his study on a mildly optimistic thought anyway: "For the less invested," he wrote, "such an intervention might indeed prove useful."

"'Not everyone who believes in a conspiracy is unreasonable or unthinking," Grimes added in a statement accompanying his study. "I hope that by showing how eye-wateringly unlikely some alleged conspiracies are, some people will reconsider their anti-science beliefs."

Meet the crunchy, chemical-hating anti-vaccine conspiracy theorists. From 100 years ago.

The big myth Facebook needs everyone to believe

The guy who made a fake Ammon Bundy account says it was easy to trick the Internet

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Why the Internet's biggest conspiracy theories don't make mathematical sense

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If NASA really faked the moon landing in 1969, about 411,000 people would have worked together to keep that information from the public, and the whole thing would have been exposed about four years later, according to an Oxford researcher who has found a mathematical way to examine the viability of conspiracy theories.

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Definition: The use of natural remedies in order to heal a person. Many do not see the consequences of using these ways of "healing". Using "all natural products" can be unsafe. (essential oils, herbal remedies, faith healing/prayer, etc.)

Connection: This article depicts the consequences of relying on God and natural healing. The twins in question were born prematurely with the mother not receiving and ultrasound or prenatal care once throughout her pregnancy. The parents did not know they were having twins and this resulted in one of twins death. The child was placed in "the hands of God" resulting in death. If the pregnancy was watched and the mother and father took the proper steps their child would probably still be alive today. The parents were charged and sent to jail for failing to provide the necessaries of life.

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News flash: Prayers aren't medicine

The deputy medical examiner knew before knocking on the door. There was a grim scene waiting for Eric Tonsfeldt inside the single-story house set among the pine trees outside of Oregon City, Oregon- a tragedy that had played out there before.

It was around 8:45 on March 5, 2017, and the Clackamas County official was responding to a report of a dead newborn.

The child had not been delivered in a hospital. She wasn't attended to by doctors and nurses. The baby died amid the murmured prayers of friends and family. But Tonsfeldt knew - as everyone else in the county and many beyond all the way up to the state legislature - that this was a familiar occurrence with members of the Followers of Christ Church, a faith-healing sect numbering around 1,000 members.

Tonsfeldt found the newborn's mother, Sarah Elaine Mitchell, in the master bedroom cradling the dead child in a blanket. As the official later recounted in a probable cause affidavit obtained by KGW8, the child's father, Travis Lee Mitchell, was also in the room, as was Sarah's father, Walter White. Tonsfeldt would say that when he questioned the individuals in the room about the death, the answers were "stilted and forced." No one would make eye contact. Eventually, he learned the baby - Ginnifer - had been born around 2:55 p.m. Hours later, the baby stopped breathing, dying around 7 p.m. As Tonsfeldt examined the child, he noted Ginnifer was 3 pounds, 6 ounces. The baby had been born prematurely at 32 weeks.

Only then did the family tell Tonsfeldt about the twin born alongside Ginnifer. When Tonsfeldt inspected Evelyn, he told the family the surviving child was "at medical risk" and must go to the hospital. He told the family twice.

"Thank you for your input," Walter White replied both times, according to KGW8.

On Monday, Ginnifer's parents Sarah and Travis Mitchell - 25 and 22, respectively - both pleaded guilty to criminal negligent homicide and criminal mistreatment, Clackamas County District Attorney John S. Foote announced in a statement.

The Mitchells are the fifth set of parents from the Followers of Christ Church to face criminal charges after failing to secure medical attention for their children in the past 9 years, according to the prosecutor. In 2009, Sarah Mitchell's sister Shannon Hickman delivered a premature baby boy in the same room where Ginnifer died, according to the Oregonian. The child passed away eight hours after his birth, and later both Hickman and her husband were convicted of second-degree manslaughter.

"For far too long, children in this church have been needlessly suffering and dying because their parents, as a condition of their religious beliefs, have refused to seek medical care for their children," the district attorney's office stated. "And for the past 17 ½ years, the Clackamas County District Attorney's Office has been working diligently to hold criminally responsible any parents who fail to provide adequate medical care for their children which causes their death or serious physical injury."

As a sign of the church's willingness to finally stop the pattern of newborn deaths, the church agreed as part of the plea agreement to post the following statement inside its building: "Everyone in the church should always seek adequate medical care for our children."

"We hope that this office is never again forced to prosecute parents in the Followers of Christ Church for neglecting the medical care of their children," the prosecutor stated. "However, we continue to stand ready to do so if the members of that congregation do not heed the call of this family."

Due to the couple's religious beliefs, Sarah Mitchell received no prenatal care. Without the benefit of an ultrasound, the couple did not know they were having twins or that the children were at risk.

The church, which believes in a literal interpretation of the Bible and shuns modern medicine, is rooted in the 19th-century Pentecostal movement, the Associated Press reported. The branch in Oregon was founded by Sarah Mitchell's grandfather.

"They believe that God heals, which all Christians believe, but they take it a step further, thinking that God always heals," religion columnist Jonathan Merritt told The Washington Post in 2015. "Most Christians have not interpreted scripture as a sort of universal promise that faith will always lead to healing. But there are some popular movements in America that still hold those views. Even those movements, however, don't believe you should withhold medicine; they believe medicine is used as a conduit to healing."

But those practices in Oregon have led to a number of deaths - and drawn scrutiny.

"They have their own graveyard, and it's just full of children," Myrna Cunningham, a former Followers of Christ Church member told the Oregonian in 2017. "There shouldn't have been that many children who died. It's terrible."

For far too long, children in this church have been needlessly suffering and dying because their parents, as a condition of their religious beliefs, have refused to seek medical care for their children

In 1998, the Oregonian reviewed the records of the 78 children buried in the Followers of Christ Church cemetery between 1955 to 1998. The newspaper's analysis concluded 21 of the children could have been saved by modern medicine.

Oregon law initially protected church members from legal consequences related to the deaths, according to KGW8. But beginning in 2008, local prosecutors began filing criminal charges against parents. That year, Raylene and Carl Brent Worthington were charged after their 15-month-old died from pneumonia and a blood infection. The father was eventually convicted of misdemeanor criminal mistreatment, according to the prosecutor's office.

The death of 15-year-old Neil Beagley from a urinary tract blockage in 2008 resulted in the conviction of his parents Jeffery and Marci Beagley of criminally negligent homicide, according to authorities.

In 2011, Rebecca and Timothy Wyland were convicted of criminal mistreatment after their daughter suffered a serious growth on her eye that resulted in permanent damage to her vision.

In the statement released following the Mitchells's sentencing, Foote acknowledged that his office has pursued the criminal charges against these parents not only to get justice for the victims but also "to convince The Followers of Christ congregation that they must stop this misconduct."

To that end, the Mitchells are the first church members to willingly plead guilty to criminal charges related to the death of their child.

On Monday, both parents were sentenced to 6 years in prison.

Their surviving child is currently in foster care.

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Newborn dies because religious parents don't believe in medical care. Now they're headed to jail

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News flash: Prayers aren't medicine The deputy medical examiner knew before knocking on the door. There was a grim scene waiting for Eric Tonsfeldt inside the single-story house set among the pine trees outside of Oregon City, Oregon- a tragedy that had played out there before.

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Post #4 Red Flag: Appeal to Authority (video)

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Post #4 Red Flag: Appeal to Authority (video)

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Definition: The presence of authority, (celebrity endorsements, athletes, etc.) which are used to sell products and influence fans, targeting a specific audience.

Connection: This commercial uses a famous basketball player to show an appeal to authority. This commercial claims that this particular brand of cereal is the greatest way to start off your day. It shows Michael Jordan eating the cereal, so why wouldn't you want to eat what he "eats everyday."

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micheal jordan wheaties commercial - Bing video

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Top suggestions for micheal jordan wheaties commercial

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Post #5 Red Flag: Mystical Energy (video)

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Post #5 Red Flag: Mystical Energy (video)

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Definition: Belief in Mystical energy such as telepathy, mediums, past life regression etc.

Connection: This video shows John Edward (a medium) perform a reading on a audience. The audience members are caught by surprise with what he knows. Some people find these readings 100% real and accurate, while others won't listen or believe a word mediums say.

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Psychic medium John Edward performs a shocking audience reading