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wind mills at Marymoor park in Redmond WA.

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anna- there have started to be unusual very warm days caused by climate change a article says

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Issue regarding Delaware and the surrounding oceans and regions

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Delaware Bay takes care of us and is a source of inspiration, recreation, rejuvenation and discovery. It is also an important element in our cultural heritage and history. Yet, today the Bay is threatened by pollution, invasive species, and sea level rise as a result of development, climate change, unsustainable agriculture, clearing of coastal forests, and oil and hazardous material spills.

Sea level rise is one of the main threats facing the Bay and the surrounding communities. State agencies such as the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control's Delaware Coastal Program have been addressing the sea level rise issue through research and adaptation planning. Sea level rise in the Mid-Atlantic is a serious concern as there is an increase of rising seas coupled with the subsidence (or gradual sinking) of the Mid-Atlantic region. However, it is an issue for which we can plan. For more information about the planning efforts about sea level rise please visit the Delaware Coastal Programs Sea Level Rise webpage.

You can help Delaware Bay and return the favor, learn, get involved and be heard!

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Delaware Bay takes care of us and is a source of inspiration, recreation, rejuvenation and discovery. It is also an important element in our cultural heritage and history. Yet, today the Bay is threatened by pollution, invasive species, and sea level rise as a result of development, climate change, unsustainable agriculture, clearing of coastal forests, and oil and hazardous material spills.

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Problems that concern West Virginia and greater Appalachia.

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West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection

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The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection is holding a public meeting Tuesday to collect and share information about the revision of human health criteria in the state's water quality standards.

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More problems that effect Richmond and the surrounding areas.

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Threats and Issues in Virginia

Direct loss and fragmentation of habitat, largely due to conversion of open space for residential and commercial development, is the greatest threat to Virginia's biodiversity. Add to this stiff competition from exotic species, diminished air quality from the combustion of fossil fuels, non-point source pollution of the waterways, climate change and associated sea-level rise -- and the picture can look pretty gloomy. Learn how citizens, agencies, and organizations in the Old Dominion are facing down these threats.

Primary Threats to Conservation in Virginia

Other Threats and Topics of Concern in Virginia

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Threats and Issues in Virginia // LandScope America

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Direct loss and fragmentation of habitat, largely due to conversion of open space for residential and commercial development, is the greatest threat to Virginia's biodiversity. Add to this stiff competition from exotic species, diminished air quality from the combustion of fossil fuels, non-point source pollution of the waterways, climate change and associated sea-level rise -- and the picture can look pretty gloomy.

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They are expecting days in the summer over 100 degrees consintently iin the summer which is a big problem

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There has been a problem with getting clean water and healthy water, this could be a seriously problem that has not yet been fixed.

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pesticides released killing loads of plants.

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waste on the water line

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the soil isnt wet enough to have plants

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Each year the first snow fall moves back one week! And yes, I did watch the whole thing

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the flat landscape is allowing tornadoes to stay together and not dissipate, causing more destruction .

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Jonesboro, Ark., came through a devastating tornado without any deaths, partly because businesses were closed and people were sheltered at home from the coronavirus.

Residents in Jonesboro, Ark., cleaning up an area that was devastated by a tornado on Saturday. Credit... Houston Cofield for The New York Times

ATLANTA - Some in Jonesboro, Ark., saw a miracle on Saturday after a tornado roared through town. It tore through businesses already closed by the coronavirus andneighborhoods where people had already been told to social distance by hunkering down at home. Not a soul died.

Now comes the really hard part: rebuilding and moving on together while officials still urge residents to stay apart.

The tornado gashed a scar of devastation that stretched on for more than four miles, scraping through the heart of the city's commercial district, destroying hangars at the municipal airport and pulverizing homes in several subdivisions.

But the morning after the tornado had passed, many acknowledged that the measures that had been put in place to thwart the coronavirus had saved lives in an unintended way. The J.C. Penny and Barnes & Noble stores that typically bustle on weekends were closed. And so were restaurants, which would have been preparing for the early dinner crowd when the tornado hit just after 5 p.m.

"Actually, that's the blessing," Bishop Adrian Rodgers, the pastor of Fullness of Joy Ministries, said on Sunday from his empty church, where he has been broadcasting his sermons to a congregation watching on Facebook.

Marvin Day, the judge for Craighead County, of which Jonesboro is the seat, added: "Truthfully, we are feeling very blessed and grateful. Our human tragedies could have been a lot worse." The authorities said 22 people were injured, but only two were hospitalized. Neither had life-threatening injuries.

Still, the tornado on its own would have created considerable hardship for a community, which now must rebuild. But it struck at an already difficult moment, as officials were contending with the coronavirus outbreak that had infected six people in Craighead County and caused many residents to lose their jobs or have their working hours reduced.

"In the midst of this response, maintaining the appropriate posture with regard to Covid-19 is going to be an added challenge," Representative Rick Crawford, a Republican who represents the area, said at a briefing on Sunday morning.

As in most of the country, normal routines have been cast aside in an effort to curb the virus. Gatherings of more than 10 people are forbidden. Businesses that were not deemed essential have closed, and restaurants have shut down their dining rooms. Students at the local school district were off last week for spring break, but starting this week, they will be taking online classes, with school canceled until at least April 17.

"Our community is taking the virus precautions to heart," said Bobby Long, a city councilman who represents one of the hardest hit areas of the city.

But the measures were becoming tougher to maintain, with the virus, which remained an invisible and undefined threat for many, being superseded by a disaster that left a path of wreckage that was much more tangible.

"All of this social distancing, for me now, is over," said Diane Bizzle, who has asthma and was isolating herself for the past few weeks. "As soon as it passed, all of the neighbors were outside, checking to make sure everyone was OK. You go out and you talk to them. You're hugging."

Curtis Brown, 54, worked with a friend to clean up after his fence and pine trees were knocked down and windows were shattered. But he has not let his guard down with the virus. "We're all doing the elbow bumps," he said, "and standing a distance from people. Using hand sanitizer. All of that."

In a city peppered with churches, the tornado was the kind of event that had many people wanting to gather with the rest of their congregations to find solace and community. Bishop Rodgers said that his congregation would continue to support its members in many ways and check on their well-being. But it would have to be at a distance.

"We certainly want to be good citizens," he said, adding that he knew of a funeral that had been attended by one person who was sick, which spread the virus to others. "All it takes is for one person to be sick, and many have been affected."

As the tornado touched down, moving from south to north, some said they were at home watching the local television news, seeing in real time the funnel forming over the meteorologist's shoulders. It caused significant damage at the Mall at Turtle Creek and at an Anheuser-Busch granary. Cars were picked up and tossed aside. Part of a freight train was knocked over.

"All I could hear was just the most horrific exploding," said Sharon Gore, 60, who could see the destroyed mall from her driveway. "There was so much glass cracking. I couldn't believe it. I was just calling the name of Jesus over and over again, because I couldn't even get a prayer out. It was like bombs were dropping."

Jonesboro, a city of about 75,000 in northeast Arkansas, had been devastated by tornadoes before. A storm in 1968 killed 34 people and injured some 300 others. Another storm in 1973 also left a trail of destruction. Three people were killed, but it was hailed as a "miracle" for not being deadlier.

"If the storm had struck just a few hours earlier, it would have caught hundreds of shoppers in the Carraway Road area, which was pounded with savage fury," wrote Mike Overall, city editor of The Jonesboro Sun, according to a retrospective published in 2013 by Memphis magazine. "And, everyone shudders to think what would have happened if the twisters had hit during school hours. Nevertheless, the fact that so many lived was a miracle in itself."

Mr. Long, the city councilman, pitched in on Sunday morning, covering roofs and boarding up windows. He saw residents picking through debris and clearing yards, and others carrying ice chests and handing out drinks and snacks. He said that keeping distance was difficult for residents, just as juggling the tandem emergencies would be for city officials.

"You do what you have to do to meet the need at the moment, and right now, this is what we're doing," he said. "We're doing our best to keep the virus under control. We will not abandon those people who need us the most at this time."

He said it was painful to go through some of the harder hit areas, seeing the homes destroyed and, with them, lives disrupted. He was also grateful. "Stuff is stuff," he said. "It's people that matter."

His voice broke as he described walking through the subdivision Bridgers Place. He approached one home where the roof had been shaved off and wooden beams inside had splintered. But Mr. Long teared up and had to pause as he recalled looking in one of the windows, where he saw a sign still tacked on the wall. "Blessed," it said.

Rick Rojas reported from Atlanta, and Vanessa Swales from New York. Michael Levenson contributed reporting from New York.

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A City Hunkered Down to Survive an Outbreak. That Helped in a Tornado, Too.

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Jonesboro, Ark., came through a devastating tornado without any deaths, partly because businesses were closed and people were sheltered at home from the coronavirus. ATLANTA - Some in Jonesboro, Ark., saw a miracle on Saturday after a tornado roared through town.

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Sea levels in South Carolina have been a victim when it comes to climate change. In this article, I read that per every decade, South Carolina's sea level rises one and a half inches. This is a major current issue that is showing up globally, and needs an urgent focus. Spread awareness.

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Climate change in South Carolina encompasses the effects of climate change, attributed to man-made increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the U.S. state of South Carolina.

Studies show that South Carolina is among a string of " Deep South" states that will experience the worst effects of climate change. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency:

South Carolina's climate is changing. Most of the state has warmed by one-half to one degree (F) in the last century, and the sea is rising about one to one-and-a-half inches every decade. Higher water levels are eroding beaches, submerging low lands, and exacerbating coastal flooding. Like other southeastern states, South Carolina has warmed less than most of the nation. But in the coming decades, the region's changing climate is likely to reduce crop yields, harm livestock, increase the number of unpleasantly hot days, and increase the risk of heat stroke and other heat-related illnesses.

As of January 2020, "South Carolina's failure to develop a comprehensive climate plan means the state has no overall effort to cut greenhouse gas pollution, limit sprawl or educate the public on how to adapt to the changing climate."

Nichols has experienced repeated flooding, and coastal areas of Charleston have flooded.

Brackish water incursions into the Waccamaw River near Georgetown due to rising sea levels are increasing the risk of exposure to toxic vibrio bacteria.

"As the oceans warm, seawater expands and raises sea level. Melting ice adds more water to the ocean, further raising sea level. In South Carolina, the land surface is sinking, so the observed rate of sea level rise relative to the land is greater than the global average rise in sea level. If the oceans and atmosphere continue to warm, sea level is likely to rise one to four feet in the next century along the coast of South Carolina".

"As sea level rises, the lowest dry lands are submerged and become either tidal wetland or open water. To some extent, wetlands can create their own land and keep pace with a slowly rising sea. But in many southeastern coastal areas, wetlands will not keep pace, and instead convert to open water. Many species of birds, fish, and shellfish in South Carolina depend on coastal wetlands that are threatened by rising sea level. Salt marshes provide habitat for clams, mussels, oysters, and other shellfish. They also provide nurseries and feeding grounds for many fish, and provide food for birds, such as egrets and the endangered wood stork".

"Beaches also erode as sea level rises. A higher water level makes it more likely that storm waves will wash over a barrier island or open new inlets. Eroding shores will threaten homes throughout the South Carolina coast unless people take measures to prevent shore erosion".

Storms, homes, and infrastructure

"Tropical storms and hurricanes have become more intense during the past 20 years. Although warming oceans provide these storms with more potential energy, scientists are not sure whether the recent intensification reflects a long-term trend. Nevertheless, hurricane wind speeds and rainfall rates are likely to increase as the climate continues to warm".

"Whether or not storms become more intense, coastal homes and infrastructure will flood more often as sea level rises, because storm surges will become higher as well. Rising sea level is likely to increase flood insurance rates, while more frequent storms could increase the deductible for wind damage in homeowner insurance policies. Charleston and the barrier islands are especially vulnerable to the impacts of storms and sea level rise".

"Changing the climate is also likely to increase inland flooding. Since 1958, the amount of precipitation during heavy rainstorms has increased by 27 percent in the Southeast, and the trend toward increasingly heavy rainstorms is likely to continue."

As of January 2020, South Carolina had no state-level plans for climate change, and politicians and departments in the state convey mixed, non-centralized approaches. At the top level, governor Henry McMaster has expressed disinterest in a statewide climate plan, arguing that it would create excessive bureaucracy. On the departmental level, the state wildlife department released a report in 2013 on the climate-related problems predicted for wildlife, such as an increase in invasive species. However, this report had been suppressed for two years prior to release.

In 2008, Governor Mark Sanford organized a special task force to recommend strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Though the subsequent report recommended over fifty strategies, criticism by utilities and political appointees resulted in the report not being used.

"Changing the climate will have both harmful and beneficial effects on farming. During the next few decades, hotter summers are likely to reduce yields of corn. But higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase crop yields, and that fertilizing effect is likely to offset the harmful effects of heat on cotton, soybeans, wheat, and peanuts-assuming that adequate water is available. More severe droughts, however, could cause crop failures. Higher temperatures are also likely to reduce livestock productivity, because heat stress disrupts the animals' metabolism".

"Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall are unlikely to substantially reduce forest cover in South Carolina, although the composition of trees in the forests may change. More droughts would reduce forest productivity, and climate change is also likely to increase the damage from insects and disease. But longer growing seasons and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide could more than offset the losses from those factors. Today forests cover two-thirds of the state. Loblolly pine trees dominate forests in most of the state, while oak, gum, and cypress trees are common in northeastern South Carolina; and oak and white pine are more common in the mountains. Changing the climate may alter the composition of forests throughout the state to more closely reflect the oak and white pine forests found today in the mountains".

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Climate change in South Carolina encompasses the effects of climate change, attributed to man-made increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the U.S. state of South Carolina. Studies show that South Carolina is among a string of " Deep South" states that will experience the worst effects of climate change.

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The waters of the grate lakes are rising every year.

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Due to the horrific impact of climate change, over the past 40 years North Carolina has had precipitation changes, the sea level continues to rise, agriculture is affected, and the has had a significant heat rise that continues going up.

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The Southeast is experiencing climate change. Generally, temperatures are expected to become warmer with more extreme heat waves. Changes in rainfall are less certain. Sea level rise coupled with increased hurricane intensity could be detrimental to Southeastern coastlines.
Why do I care? The climate is changing in the Southeast, and if you live there, these changes will affect you. However, computer models vary in exactly how and when these changes will occur. For example, average rainfall amounts could increase or decrease and the seasonal patterns and timing of precipitation may change.
I should already be familiar with: Global Warming vs. Climate Change

Figure A. Annual average temperature of the southeast United States for the period 1895-2009. The trendline shows a decrease in average temperature.

Temperature Changes

Although annual average temperatures across much of the United States are expected to increase in the future, over the past 100 years annual average temperatures in the Southeast have decreased slightly as shown in Figure A. This cooling has been attributed partially to changes in land use over time from bare fields of cotton and row crops in the early 20th century to the present forest stands, which are cooler and moister than open fields.

Over the last 40 years, however, temperatures have increased throughout much of the Southeast. This is true even in rural areas away from cities and suburbs which are becoming more urban in nature over time. Winters are becoming milder, but the summers are also becoming more sweltering. In parts of the Southeast, like northern Georgia, there are 20 fewer days below freezing each year than there were 40 years ago. The number of days above 90°F is expected to almost triple over the next 100 years. This could cause heat stress not only for humans, but animals and crops as well.

Precipitation Pattern Changes

Figure B. Map of changes in precipitation by season.

Generally, for everyone outside of Florida fall is becoming wetter and all other seasons are the same or becoming drier. Annual average rainfall in many locations is nearly constant, but the rains have been falling in more intense and short-lived episodes, with longer dry spells in between. In some locations rainfall is becoming heavier, but occurrences of drought have also increased by about 10% in the past 40 years. Global climate models have a difficult time predicting whether the rainfall in the Southeast will increase or decrease in the next 100 years, however, because the physical processes that form clouds and rain in the computer models are highly variable and do not do a good job of simulating even the current rainfall well. While water supply from reservoirs is likely to be adequate under good management practices and conservation efforts, more frequent droughts or large population increases will stress the ability of water utilities to meet everyone's needs.

Sea Level Rise

Figure C. Changing shoreline over many centuries. (Image from Carrie Thomas).

There is a potential for the sea level to rise by about two feet off the Southeast coast over the next one hundred years. Not only could this flood low lying areas like barrier islands, but it could also increase the salinity in estuaries, wetlands and tidal rivers. It could also increase vulnerability of coastal areas to the damaging effects of storm surge. Low lying areas that currently flood during heavy rains would likely flood more frequently, and others that don't currently flood may start to experience flooding.

Hurricane Intensity Increases

There is some theory and scientific evidence that hurricanes will increase in intensity in the next hundred years. This would mean more strong hurricanes (CAT3+), and storms that form would have stronger winds and the associated storm surge would be higher, pushing more water inland before and during the storm. This coupled with sea level rise could spell catastrophe for some coastal communities in the Southeast.

How does this relate to agriculture?

Warmer temperatures would likely result in a change of the ecosystem. Plants that once grew in certain regions will now thrive farther north. Soil moisture could decrease under the higher temperatures and more intermittent rainfall, even if the total amount of rainfall increases. The growing season could increase in length, leading to longer growing periods. Some crops could benefit from warmer temperatures and increased carbon dioxide while others might not. Crops that are already near their temperature limits will be the most affected in terms of yield and quality if temperatures continue to rise. The crops that are not near their temperature thresholds would benefit from warmer temperatures, and would likely increase their yield and quality. Freezes in Florida would be reduced, leading to decreased loss from cold weather, and citrus crops might be able to migrate north of their current range.

Because of the warmer temperature and potential drying of the soil, irrigation may need to be expanded, or else marginal lands will have to be taken out of production or switched to more suitable crops. Pests could increase in range, necessitating the use of more pesticides. Forests could also die back and change to a more open prairie.

All of these local changes will take place in the context of a world that is also changing in many ways. Economic demands, health issues, coastal changes, energy needs and production methods, and population growth will also be varying in ways that are difficult to predict now. All of these changes will affect the costs of agricultural production and the demand for your products in the future.

How does this relate to public health?

Some of the biggest climate change concerns for public health include rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and increasing intense precipitation events. Mid-latitude cities, such as those in North Carolina, tend to experience greater summer climate variability. These cities are also expected to experience the greatest increase in summertime heat-related deaths as a result of climate change. ¹

Figure D. Sea level.

Rising average temperatures and more frequent and more intense heat waves due to climate change are affecting human health in several ways. Most directly, warmer average temperatures and more extreme temperatures put more people at risk for heat-related death and disease, such as heat stroke and dehydration. ¹ For example, in North Carolina, the number of heat-related visits to the emergency department increases by 15.8 for every 1°F increase in temperature from 98°F to 100°F. ²

Older adults and young children are vulnerable to heat-related illnesses. However, over the past two summers, North Carolina has seen the greatest number of heat-related visits to the emergency department among men ages 25-64. 3,4 The state of North Carolina has much more rural land mass and less densely populated urban areas than other states, making it less susceptible to the urban heat island effect. 5,6 In fact, research suggests that in North Carolina, heat-related illnesses are more likely to occur in rural areas than in urban areas. ⁷

Rising temperatures may facilitate the melting of glaciers and ice caps in the ocean, contributing to rising sea levels. When coupled with more frequent storm surges, more frequent and intense flooding may result. ⁸ These extreme weather events can reduce the availability of drinkable water, compromise the integrity of public health infrastructure, and cause direct death or injury in coastal communities. 9,10The North Carolina coast is especially vulnerable to sea level rise, which has risen over a foot in the past 100 years, with large areas of land elevated only a small amount above sea level. ¹¹ A one-foot rise in sea levels is correlated with 200 feet of beach erosion in North and South Carolina. ⁶

¹ Portier CJ, et al. 2010. A human health perspective on climate change: a report outlining the research needs on the human health effects of climate change. Research Triangle Park, NC: Environmental Health Perspectives/National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002272 <www.niehs.nih.gov/climatereport> Accessed November 17, 2012.

² Rhea, S; Ising, A; Fleischauer, AT; Deyneka, L; Vaughn-Batten, H; Waller, A. 2012. Using near real-time morbidity data to identify heat-related illness prevention strategies in North Carolina. Journal of Community Health 37:495-500. DOI 10.1007/s10900-011-9469-0.

³ North Carolina Division of Public Health, Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology. The 2011 North Carolina heat report. July 2011. <http://publichealth.nc.gov/chronicdiseaseandinjury/doc/HeatReport-13-2011.pdf> Accessed November 17, 2012.

⁴ North Carolina Division of Public Health, Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology. The 2012 North Carolina heat report. <http://publichealth.nc.gov/chronicdiseaseandinjury/doc/HeatReport20-2012.pdf> Accessed November 17, 2012.

⁵ Reid CE, O'Neill MS, Gronlund CJ, Brines SJ, Brown DG, Diez-Roux AV, Schwartz J. 2009. Mapping community determinants of heat vulnerability. Environmental Health Perspectives. Nov;117(11):1730-1736.

⁶ UNC Institute for the Environment, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. 2009. Climate change committee report 2009. <http://www.ie.unc.edu/PDF/Climate_Change_Report.pdf> Accessed November 17, 2012.

⁷ Fuhrmann, C.M., Kovach, M.M., and C.E. Konrad II: Heat-related illness in North Carolina: Who's at Risk? Annual Education Conference of the North Carolina Public Health Association, New Bern, NC, September 20, 2013. <http://www.sercc.com/sercc_projects> Accessed December 22, 2012.

⁸ Tebaldi, C., Strauss, B. H., & Zervas, C. E. (2012). Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7(1):014032.

⁹ Environmental Protection Agency. Climate change: Human impacts and adaptation. June 14, 2012. <http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html#impactssea> Accessed November 17, 2012.

¹⁰ English, PB; et al. 2009. Environmental health indicators of climate change for the United States: Findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative. Environmental Health Perspectives. Nov;117(11):1673-1681.

¹¹ RENCI at ECU. 2011-2012 focus: Sea level rise. March 29, 2012. <http://www.ecu.edu/renci/Focus/SeaLevelRise.html> Accessed November 17, 2012.

Want to learn more?

Greenhouse Effect, Greenhouse Gases

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Effects of Climate Change on the Southeast

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The Southeast is experiencing climate change. Generally, temperatures are expected to become warmer with more extreme heat waves. Changes in rainfall are less certain. Sea level rise coupled with increased hurricane intensity could be detrimental to Southeastern coastlines. Why do I care?

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Kansas Forest Service 2610 Claflin Road Manhattan, KS 66502 785.532.3300

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Kansas Forest Service 2610 Claflin Road Manhattan, KS 66502 785.532.3300

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there are drouts

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Coastal Land Loss
The picture shows how much land loss has happened and is predicted to happen.
Red=land that has been lost
all other colors are predictions

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South Carolina has not been affected as badly as other states, but is expected to have crop failures and agriculture issues due to climate change. The level of heat is bound to increase over the next few years and is said to brig up new heat related illnesses in the act. -Ani B

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Over the last 40 years or so, North Carolina has been greatly affected by climate change. Multiple issues such as rising sea levels, precipitation changes, and heat emergencies. -Ani B

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The Southeast is experiencing climate change. Generally, temperatures are expected to become warmer with more extreme heat waves. Changes in rainfall are less certain. Sea level rise coupled with increased hurricane intensity could be detrimental to Southeastern coastlines.
Why do I care? The climate is changing in the Southeast, and if you live there, these changes will affect you. However, computer models vary in exactly how and when these changes will occur. For example, average rainfall amounts could increase or decrease and the seasonal patterns and timing of precipitation may change.
I should already be familiar with: Global Warming vs. Climate Change

Figure A. Annual average temperature of the southeast United States for the period 1895-2009. The trendline shows a decrease in average temperature.

Temperature Changes

Although annual average temperatures across much of the United States are expected to increase in the future, over the past 100 years annual average temperatures in the Southeast have decreased slightly as shown in Figure A. This cooling has been attributed partially to changes in land use over time from bare fields of cotton and row crops in the early 20th century to the present forest stands, which are cooler and moister than open fields.

Over the last 40 years, however, temperatures have increased throughout much of the Southeast. This is true even in rural areas away from cities and suburbs which are becoming more urban in nature over time. Winters are becoming milder, but the summers are also becoming more sweltering. In parts of the Southeast, like northern Georgia, there are 20 fewer days below freezing each year than there were 40 years ago. The number of days above 90°F is expected to almost triple over the next 100 years. This could cause heat stress not only for humans, but animals and crops as well.

Precipitation Pattern Changes

Figure B. Map of changes in precipitation by season.

Generally, for everyone outside of Florida fall is becoming wetter and all other seasons are the same or becoming drier. Annual average rainfall in many locations is nearly constant, but the rains have been falling in more intense and short-lived episodes, with longer dry spells in between. In some locations rainfall is becoming heavier, but occurrences of drought have also increased by about 10% in the past 40 years. Global climate models have a difficult time predicting whether the rainfall in the Southeast will increase or decrease in the next 100 years, however, because the physical processes that form clouds and rain in the computer models are highly variable and do not do a good job of simulating even the current rainfall well. While water supply from reservoirs is likely to be adequate under good management practices and conservation efforts, more frequent droughts or large population increases will stress the ability of water utilities to meet everyone's needs.

Sea Level Rise

Figure C. Changing shoreline over many centuries. (Image from Carrie Thomas).

There is a potential for the sea level to rise by about two feet off the Southeast coast over the next one hundred years. Not only could this flood low lying areas like barrier islands, but it could also increase the salinity in estuaries, wetlands and tidal rivers. It could also increase vulnerability of coastal areas to the damaging effects of storm surge. Low lying areas that currently flood during heavy rains would likely flood more frequently, and others that don't currently flood may start to experience flooding.

Hurricane Intensity Increases

There is some theory and scientific evidence that hurricanes will increase in intensity in the next hundred years. This would mean more strong hurricanes (CAT3+), and storms that form would have stronger winds and the associated storm surge would be higher, pushing more water inland before and during the storm. This coupled with sea level rise could spell catastrophe for some coastal communities in the Southeast.

How does this relate to agriculture?

Warmer temperatures would likely result in a change of the ecosystem. Plants that once grew in certain regions will now thrive farther north. Soil moisture could decrease under the higher temperatures and more intermittent rainfall, even if the total amount of rainfall increases. The growing season could increase in length, leading to longer growing periods. Some crops could benefit from warmer temperatures and increased carbon dioxide while others might not. Crops that are already near their temperature limits will be the most affected in terms of yield and quality if temperatures continue to rise. The crops that are not near their temperature thresholds would benefit from warmer temperatures, and would likely increase their yield and quality. Freezes in Florida would be reduced, leading to decreased loss from cold weather, and citrus crops might be able to migrate north of their current range.

Because of the warmer temperature and potential drying of the soil, irrigation may need to be expanded, or else marginal lands will have to be taken out of production or switched to more suitable crops. Pests could increase in range, necessitating the use of more pesticides. Forests could also die back and change to a more open prairie.

All of these local changes will take place in the context of a world that is also changing in many ways. Economic demands, health issues, coastal changes, energy needs and production methods, and population growth will also be varying in ways that are difficult to predict now. All of these changes will affect the costs of agricultural production and the demand for your products in the future.

How does this relate to public health?

Some of the biggest climate change concerns for public health include rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and increasing intense precipitation events. Mid-latitude cities, such as those in North Carolina, tend to experience greater summer climate variability. These cities are also expected to experience the greatest increase in summertime heat-related deaths as a result of climate change. ¹

Figure D. Sea level.

Rising average temperatures and more frequent and more intense heat waves due to climate change are affecting human health in several ways. Most directly, warmer average temperatures and more extreme temperatures put more people at risk for heat-related death and disease, such as heat stroke and dehydration. ¹ For example, in North Carolina, the number of heat-related visits to the emergency department increases by 15.8 for every 1°F increase in temperature from 98°F to 100°F. ²

Older adults and young children are vulnerable to heat-related illnesses. However, over the past two summers, North Carolina has seen the greatest number of heat-related visits to the emergency department among men ages 25-64. 3,4 The state of North Carolina has much more rural land mass and less densely populated urban areas than other states, making it less susceptible to the urban heat island effect. 5,6 In fact, research suggests that in North Carolina, heat-related illnesses are more likely to occur in rural areas than in urban areas. ⁷

Rising temperatures may facilitate the melting of glaciers and ice caps in the ocean, contributing to rising sea levels. When coupled with more frequent storm surges, more frequent and intense flooding may result. ⁸ These extreme weather events can reduce the availability of drinkable water, compromise the integrity of public health infrastructure, and cause direct death or injury in coastal communities. 9,10The North Carolina coast is especially vulnerable to sea level rise, which has risen over a foot in the past 100 years, with large areas of land elevated only a small amount above sea level. ¹¹ A one-foot rise in sea levels is correlated with 200 feet of beach erosion in North and South Carolina. ⁶

¹ Portier CJ, et al. 2010. A human health perspective on climate change: a report outlining the research needs on the human health effects of climate change. Research Triangle Park, NC: Environmental Health Perspectives/National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002272 <www.niehs.nih.gov/climatereport> Accessed November 17, 2012.

² Rhea, S; Ising, A; Fleischauer, AT; Deyneka, L; Vaughn-Batten, H; Waller, A. 2012. Using near real-time morbidity data to identify heat-related illness prevention strategies in North Carolina. Journal of Community Health 37:495-500. DOI 10.1007/s10900-011-9469-0.

³ North Carolina Division of Public Health, Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology. The 2011 North Carolina heat report. July 2011. <http://publichealth.nc.gov/chronicdiseaseandinjury/doc/HeatReport-13-2011.pdf> Accessed November 17, 2012.

⁴ North Carolina Division of Public Health, Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology. The 2012 North Carolina heat report. <http://publichealth.nc.gov/chronicdiseaseandinjury/doc/HeatReport20-2012.pdf> Accessed November 17, 2012.

⁵ Reid CE, O'Neill MS, Gronlund CJ, Brines SJ, Brown DG, Diez-Roux AV, Schwartz J. 2009. Mapping community determinants of heat vulnerability. Environmental Health Perspectives. Nov;117(11):1730-1736.

⁶ UNC Institute for the Environment, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. 2009. Climate change committee report 2009. <http://www.ie.unc.edu/PDF/Climate_Change_Report.pdf> Accessed November 17, 2012.

⁷ Fuhrmann, C.M., Kovach, M.M., and C.E. Konrad II: Heat-related illness in North Carolina: Who's at Risk? Annual Education Conference of the North Carolina Public Health Association, New Bern, NC, September 20, 2013. <http://www.sercc.com/sercc_projects> Accessed December 22, 2012.

⁸ Tebaldi, C., Strauss, B. H., & Zervas, C. E. (2012). Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7(1):014032.

⁹ Environmental Protection Agency. Climate change: Human impacts and adaptation. June 14, 2012. <http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/coasts.html#impactssea> Accessed November 17, 2012.

¹⁰ English, PB; et al. 2009. Environmental health indicators of climate change for the United States: Findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative. Environmental Health Perspectives. Nov;117(11):1673-1681.

¹¹ RENCI at ECU. 2011-2012 focus: Sea level rise. March 29, 2012. <http://www.ecu.edu/renci/Focus/SeaLevelRise.html> Accessed November 17, 2012.

Want to learn more?

Greenhouse Effect, Greenhouse Gases

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Effects of Climate Change on the Southeast

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The Southeast is experiencing climate change. Generally, temperatures are expected to become warmer with more extreme heat waves. Changes in rainfall are less certain. Sea level rise coupled with increased hurricane intensity could be detrimental to Southeastern coastlines. Why do I care?

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Every day people are throwing away tons of single-use cups, containers and other plastic “stuff.” Among the worst forms of plastic pollution is polystyrene foam (the stuff most of us call Styrofoam), which never fully degrades. Nothing we use for a few minutes should be allowed to pollute our oceans and rivers and threaten wildlife for centuries. That’s why we’re calling on state leaders to ban take-out foam cups and containers.

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Pollution from single-use plastics - straws, polystyrene food takeout containers, plastic bags, and plastic water bottles - have become the poster child showing how our throw-away society harms our environment and puts our health at risk. We're barraged with images of islands made of plastics floating in our oceans, sea turtles choking on plastic bags, and sea birds strangling on plastic packaging.

PennEnvironment is teaming up with legislators in Harrisburg to tackle the most insidious forms of single-use plastic waste. Specifically, we've introduced legislation that will ban straws except upon request, ban foam takeout food containers and cups, and put a fee on single-use plastic bags. We are also introducing successful legislation from other states like the five-cent deposit on beverage bottles and cans that are used in 10 states to increase recycling rates.

Through our Zero Waste PA package, PennEnvironment wants to make sure we're tackling the largest waste streams in our throwaway society. The largest source is food waste and organic waste, which makes up a whopping 22 percent of our overall residential waste stream. And the fastest growing is electronic waste (often called "e-waste") as consumers dispose of more phones, televisions, computers and electronic devices each year. E-waste is also one of the most toxic parts of our waste stream: while e-waste represents only 2 percent of America's trash in landfills, it represents 70 percent of the toxicity in this waste stream.

To put Pennsylvania on a path to solving these problems, PennEnvironment has included legislation in the Zero Waste PA package to develop and implement state-required composting programs, and to improve and enhance Pennsylvania's e-waste recycling law in order to capture more electronic waste to keep it out of landfills and incinerators.

One of our biggest challenges to moving away from a throwaway society is the fact that it's often cheaper to send things to a landfill or incinerator instead of recycling or reducing products from our waste stream in the first place. For example, Pennsylvania's incredibly low cost of sending trash to landfills and incinerators doesn't only make it harder to break the cycle of a disposable society, it also makes Pennsylvania the largest importer of out-of-state waste in the nation, as other states send us their trash for disposal. At the same time, Pennsylvania hasn't increased funding rates for the state's Recycling Fund in thirty years, meaning that there are less financial resources for our cities and counties to expand and improve their recycling efforts.

Through the Zero Waste PA package, PennEnvironment works to put the "Three R's" over throwing away by increase funding for recycling programs in the state, allowing local governments to have more tools to fund recycling in their communities, and increasing the cost for sending waste to our landfills and incinerators as well as for those who litter and dump waste illegally.

PennEnvironment Director David Masur (podium) is joined by state legislators to announce the introduction of the Zero Waste PA package.

We can make three big dents in the problem by getting rid of the stuff that we use once and throw away, making it easier to repair stuff that would otherwise be thrown away, and never making it cheaper to throw things away versus to reuse and recycle them.

That's why we've been working with a group of legislators in the state capitol to design the Zero Waste PA package of legislation.

Zero Waste PA will address some of the most pervasive, harmful sources of this waste through a package of legislation that will address many of the most common single-use plastics (polystyrene food containers, plastic bags, plastic bottled water bottles, etc), some of the largest sources of our waste stream (such as organic and food waste), and the fastest growing sources of waste (e-waste).

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Pollution from single-use plastics - straws, polystyrene food takeout containers, plastic bags, and plastic water bottles - have become the poster child showing how our throw-away society harms our environment and puts our health at risk. We're barraged with images of islands made of plastics floating in our oceans, sea turtles choking on plastic bags, and sea birds strangling on plastic packaging.

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Of course, there are plastics companies that don't like this idea. Earlier this year, their opposition helped block a bill banning plastic foam containers in California.

But across the country, plastic foam bans have passed in over 200 cities and other communities, from Portland, Ore., to Portland, Me. Some companies are also getting with the program. By the end of this year, McDonald's will phase out foam cups and containers worldwide, in favor of 100% recycled materials. It's time to take this effort to the next level, but we're going to need all the support we can find.

Our national network has won similar efforts to reduce waste and plastic pollution, from statewide pro-recycling laws to the first statewide plastic bag ban in California. We know how to combine professional research and advocacy with citizen support to get results.

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Of course, there are plastics companies that don't like this idea. Earlier this year, their opposition helped block a bill banning plastic foam containers in California. But across the country, plastic foam bans have passed in over 200 cities and other communities, from Portland, Ore., to Portland, Me.

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very day people are throwing away tons of single-use cups, containers and other plastic “stuff.” Among the worst forms of plastic pollution is polystyrene foam (the stuff most of us call Styrofoam), which never fully degrades. Nothing we use for a few minutes should be allowed to pollute our oceans and rivers and threaten wildlife for centuries. That’s why we’re calling on state leaders to ban take-out foam cups and containers.

# data[].attributes.body
every day people are throwing away tons of single-use cups, containers and other plastic “stuff.” Among the worst forms of plastic pollution is polystyrene foam (the stuff most of us call Styrofoam), which never fully degrades. Nothing we use for a few minutes should be allowed to pollute our oceans and rivers and threaten wildlife for centuries. That’s why we’re calling on state leaders to ban take-out foam cups and containers.

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In Maine, one of the biggest worries was flooding, which could include acid rain becoming more acidic.

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Shavonne Smith, director of the Shinnecock Nation's environmental department. Credit... Andrew Seng for The New York Times

Shinnecock Indians are using nature-based solutions to calm the waves and restore the beaches that protect their lands.

Shavonne Smith, director of the Shinnecock Nation's environmental department. Credit... Andrew Seng for The New York Times

SHINNECOCK NATION, Southampton, N.Y. - A maritime people who once spanned a large swath of the eastern Long Island shore, the Shinnecock Indians have been hemmed into a 1.5-square-mile patch of land on the edge of a brackish bay. Now, because of climate change, they're battling to hold on to what they have left.

Rising seas are threatening to eat away at the Shinnecock lands. But the tribe is using everything at its disposal to calm the waves and restore a long, slim beach at the edge of Shinnecock Bay: dredged sand, sea grasses, beach grasses, boulders, oyster shells.

It's a forever battle. Climate change is swelling and heating the world's oceans at an accelerating pace. Inevitably, the Shinnecock will have to bring more sand to replenish what the rising tide keeps washing away. More grass will have to be planted. This spring, Shavonne Smith, director of the tribe's environmental department, wants to expand the oyster reef designed to dissipate the energy of the waves.

"We have an inherent responsibility to protect the homeland," Ms. Smith said on a recent Monday morning walk along the shore. "It's not the type of thing where you can work against nature. You work with it."

The project is using wind and water to sculpt the sand into gently rising dunes. It has taken nearly four years to restore a modest 3,250-foot stretch of beach and buffer the burial grounds that lie just beyond.

What the Shinnecock are doing on their land represents what climate adaptation experts call nature-based solutions. Several such efforts are underway elsewhere. New York City's oyster reefs are being restored to protect Manhattan from storm surges. Marsh grasses have been planted to control erosion in parts of the Florida panhandle. Mangroves have been restored in Vietnam to protect coastal communities from sea level rise and storm surges.

To what extent these natural defenses will succeed in slowing down climate hazards remains uncertain. Ultimately, it depends not on nature, but on how quickly the world as a whole reduces the emission of planet-warming gases and stems the rate of sea level rise.

The global outlook for beaches is bleak. One study, published in Nature Climate Change this week, found that more than half of the world's sandy beaches could disappear by the end of this century.

For now, the Shinnecock experiment has succeeded in saving their land from being devoured by the sea, Dorothy Peteet, a paleoclimatologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, observed on a recent visit.

"The question is how long will it work," Dr. Peteet said. "It all depends on how fast the sea comes in, basically."

Roughly 500 members of the Shinnecock Nation, which won federal recognition a decade ago, live on their traditional land, encircled by the summer homes and yacht clubs of the Hamptons. Across the water, sea walls try to hold back the water from the shoreline homes of Southampton, but they ultimately cause the beach to be washed away, which is why, said Eric Shultz, head of Southampton's board of town trustees, officials are trying to dissuade residents from building new sea walls.

On the Shinnecock's beach, facing Shinnecock Bay and the barrier island out in front, the sands have shifted over the years, as sands naturally do. A hurricane in 1938 knocked out a small chunk of the barrier island, bringing the force of the ocean into the calmer bay.

People in their 70s and 80s remember when the beach was wide. By the time Ms. Smith, 42, came here as a child, it was mostly pebbles. The trees along the shore, saltwater licking at their roots, were beginning to die off. Several times, recalled the Rev. Mike Smith, the 71-year-old former pastor of the Shinnecock Presbyterian Church, the road that encircled the cemetery flooded.

Then came Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The water swept over the pebbles and swelled up into the cemetery. It flooded the basement of the pastor's house, jumping over the concrete berm he had built. It raced up Seneca Bowen's yard.

Gradually, the beach that was part of Mr. Bowen's yard was replaced by a marsh. The water just kept coming in.

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Boulders placed along the shore to blunt the impact of waves. Credit... Andrew Seng for The New York Times

To Chris Pickerell, marine program director of the Cornell Cooperative Extension program, Sandy was a foretaste of what is to come in the era of climate change. "The extent and duration of flooding on the reservation showed what unabated sea level rise will look like in the future," he said. "Sea level rise, combined with storms like Sandy, alter these natural rhythms and can result in catastrophic damage."

Across New York state, between 1880 and 2015, wetlands shielded by barrier islands have eroded by about 20 inches per year, according to the United States Geological Survey. The ocean-facing coast has eroded much faster. On the Shinnecock land, by the end of this century, sea level rise, relative to the land, is estimated to be between 2.1 and 4.4 feet, according to a climate adaptation report prepared by the tribe. In the coming decades, depending on how fast the sea rises, climate models project rising risks of chronic floods of 6 feet or more in the area.

"Something that was just slowly happening over time has picked up speed," Ms. Smith said.

Hurricane Sandy also brought an opportunity: federal reconstruction money that the Shinnecock could use to save their territory.

In 2016, they poured 30,000 cubic yards of dredged sand on what they call Cuffey's Beach. They filled biodegradable bags with oyster shells and then laid them in rows to calm the waves and clean the water in the process. Mr. Pickerell and his colleagues propagated local grass seeds to plant: sea grass in the bay, cord grass for the intertidal marsh area, and a native beach grass called Ammophila breviligulata to hold down the sand. A row of rocks was planted near the high tide line to protect the cord grasses from the southwestern winds that blow across the bay in summer.

Today, the beach grass is flourishing. The dunes gently slope upward. Viola Cause, natural resources manager at the Shinnecock environment department, pointed to the trees thriving behind the dunes: sassafras, oak, elderberry. Under the trees may lie very old, unmarked graves that the Shinnecocks are keen to preserve.

But nature does what nature will. Ducks have eaten much of the cordgrass. More will have to be planted. At some point, more sand will have to be poured on the beach, too. Ms. Smith aspires to expand the oyster reef in the coming months.

At high tide, as the sun shined brightly on the bay, Ms. Cause stood on Cuffey's Beach. Before the coastal restoration project, the water would come up to her knees. "We've been able to push back the water some, slow the water down, allow the plants and things to do what they need to do to revive themselves," Ms. Cause said. "Just trying to use the natural things that were given to us."

The beach was dotted with signs of life: sea lettuce, oyster shells, horseshoe crab remains, a dark green seaweed known as dead man's fingers. The occasional great blue heron passed over the marsh. When the tide ebbed in midafternoon, a man dug for clams on the far end of a sand bank.

"This is what we have left. So then what?" Ms. Cause said. "We would like to just have it still be preserved here for our future, our future generations. The beach. The land. The clean water."
For more climate news sign up for the Climate Fwd: newsletter or follow @NYTClimate on Twitter.

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The Original Long Islanders Fight to Save Their Land From a Rising Sea

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Shinnecock Indians are using nature-based solutions to calm the waves and restore the beaches that protect their lands. Shavonne Smith, director of the Shinnecock Nation's environmental department. Credit... Andrew Seng for The New York Times SHINNECOCK NATION, Southampton, N.Y.

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Center of My Region

Threats regarding Maryland and the Surrounding area

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201 West Main Street, Suite 14, Charlottesville, VA 22902 | 434-977-4090

Charlottesville | Virginia | Chapel Hill | Asheville | Atlanta | Birmingham | Charleston | Nashville | Richmond | Washington

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201 West Main Street, Suite 14, Charlottesville, VA 22902 | 434-977-4090 Charlottesville | Virginia | Chapel Hill | Asheville | Atlanta | Birmingham | Charleston | Nashville | Richmond | Washington

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Suffering from melting glaciers and extreme wildfires

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An article about what climate change means for Utah

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An article about what climate change means for Nevada

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An article about how the climate crisis is affecting Arizona

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When you think of Arizona, what usually comes to mind? For most of us, along with scenic desert landscapes, heat is probably at the top of the list. Very intense heat. In terms of average number of 90-plus degree days per year, we're talking the home-of-the-two- hottest-cities-in-the-country-type heat.

So, that raises the question: how is an already exceptionally hot state faring in a rapidly warming planet? The answer, unsurprisingly, is not too well - at least relative to the rest of the country.

The bottom line is this: The climate crisis is making hot Arizona even hotter - and it's impacting Arizonans in a variety of ways.

Today, millions of Arizonans are getting used to record-breaking heat. Just this decade, Phoenix has set new daily heat records on 33 different days, which is significantly more than any previous decade in recorded history.

It's not just for highs, though. The city has set new records for hottest minimum daily temperatures 44 times as well - and that's just since 2010.

As Paul Iñiguez, science and operations officer at the National Weather Service in Phoenix, explained to the Arizona Republic: "There's no doubt climate change is happening. We see this reflected in the temperature records. It's getting warmer. Our heat season is getting warmer."

The thing is, escalating heat doesn't just intensify drought and kindle wildfires - it poses a real threat to our health all by itself.

The sweltering temperatures Arizona sees today are nothing short of hazardous. Even for a relatively adaptation-capable country like the United States, they can be lethal.

In fact, heatwaves are the leading cause of extreme-weather event deaths in the country - even more so than hurricanes, fires, floods, or earthquakes. In the Phoenix area alone, 154, 179, and 181 people died from heat-related causes in 2016, 2017, and 2018 respectively.

This severe toll, which is partly due to a growing, particularly vulnerable homeless population, is also just a clear-as-day alarm on the threat rising temperatures present in Arizona.

Really, what's happening in Phoenix echoes exactly what medical professionals already know: that children, the elderly, and the poor - just like Phoenix's homeless population - are disproportionately vulnerable to these changes. Even temperatures significantly below Arizona's rising highs have the potential to cause heatstroke and dehydration and can affect people's cardiovascular, respiratory, and nervous systems.

What's more, rising temperatures can increase the formation of ground-level ozone, a primary component of smog. This nasty pollutant has a variety of health effects, including aggravating lung diseases like asthma.

So, what might Arizona heat look like in a warming future?

For the state as a whole, "dangerous" heat days (days with a heat index above 105 degrees Fahrenheit) are projected to grow from 50 days a year to 80 on average by 2050 if emissions continue business as usual.

For cities, it's even worse. Phoenix, which can get up to 21 degrees Fahrenheit (11.76 degrees Celsius) hotter than nearby rural areas because of the heat island effect, can expect its number of dangerous heat days to go from 80 to a stunning 147 by the end of the century.

As for many other regions of the planet, Arizona's climate story is quickly becoming all about water.

The state, along with the rest of the Southwest, has seen its supply of this precious resource dwindle as rising temperatures have made droughts even more intense. The scale of drying seen is so great, in fact, that experts deem the entire region is undergoing a "mega-drought".

As Columbia University professor Park Williams described of the Southwest in a recent Atlantic report, "The last 19 years have been equivalent to the worst 19 years of the worst mega-droughts on record." As the article went on to explain, "only three recent mega-droughts - in the late 800s, the mid-1100s, and the late 1500s - were worse than the current period".

Clearly, this drought, just like the heat seen across the region, is just not normal - and neither are its impacts.

Take the Colorado River, for example.

The flow of this critical source, which supplies over a third of Arizona's water, has decreased by about 19 percent from 2000 to 2014 compared to its twentieth-century average. In the five years since, the river's aridification has only continued. So, has climate change significantly contributed to its decline? Absolutely.

As experts Bradley Udall and Jonathan Overpeck explained in a 2017 study, "the emerging reality is that climate change is already depleting Colorado River water supplies at the upper end of the range suggested by previously published projections. Record setting temperatures are an important and underappreciated component of the flow reductions now being observed."

This is likely just the beginning, however. As they go on to describe, "continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by midcentury and -35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at mid-century and -55% at end-century."

Once again, the Colorado River supplies over a third of Arizona's water supply, including 40 percent of the water for Phoenix - the fifth-most populated city in the United States. Though the situation may be under control today, Phoenix is among the fastest growing-cities in the country - a trend that's expected to continue in coming decades. This is all happening just as scientists warn of worsening drought.

So, can Phoenix continue addressing this water decline exclusively through adaptation? A decline in basic resource availability won't stop being a risk to residents until the real cause of the problem - our changing climate - is addressed.

Today, however - even in the midst of clear climate impacts like this - Arizonan representatives, senators, and other decision makers continue to deny the science.

THE ENVIRONMENT, WILDFIRES, AND AGRICULTURE

The sad reality is that such fast warming today is taking a serious toll on Arizona's natural environment. The timescale at which our climate is changing is simply not giving much of the state's vegetation or wildlife enough time to adapt.

This is worrying because once Arizona's threatened varieties of flora are gone, they are likely gone for good.

Heat and drought are major culprits behind this decline, but also important are fires. From 1998 to 2018 alone, wildfires have burned over 1.5 million acres of Arizona forests.

Perhaps more revealing of climate's impact, however, is that today the Western U.S. sees a whopping three times more wildfires burning per year than in the 1970s. Plus the 10 biggest fires in the state's history have all happened just since 2002. What's more, the wildfires destroying the environment can significantly reduce air quality throughout the state - posing an acute risk to people with respiratory and heart problems.

It's not just the natural environment, though. Arizonan agriculture faces similar climate challenges.

Given that two-thirds of the water used in the state is used for farming, decreasing water supplies pose a clear and present danger to the sector. Similarly, rising temperatures are hurting many popular Arizona crops, including wheat, corn, cotton, mint, and alfalfa.

It's also worth mentioning that agriculture in Arizona is an economic powerhouse, contributing $23 billion annually to the state's economy and sustaining over 130,000 jobs. A threat to agriculture is a serious threat to the state's overall wellbeing.

What's more, Arizona is the nation's second-largest producer of lettuce, broccoli, and cantaloupe in addition to the crops already mentioned. This means that consumers in the state and across the country will feel farmers' pain too through increased prices and staple foods becoming less readily available.

Like the other impacts, wildfires and environmental and agricultural decline are only expected to get worse without bold action to slash emissions.

By 2050, Arizona is projected to see 115 at-risk days for high wildfire potential each year. Similarly, as one study predicts, major Arizona crops could decrease in yield by 12.2 percent for every degree Celsius of warming we let happen.

IT'S TIME FOR CLIMATE ACTION

These impacts are sending out a clear message: Arizona, just like the rest of the planet, is in the midst of a climate crisis that calls for urgent action.

There is good news, though. This state, much like the rest of the Southwest, has unprecedented potential to reap the growing benefits of clean, limitless solar energy. In fact, as a state with some of the best solar resources, hardly any place is as well equipped for the renewable energy rush we need as Arizona.

We have the solutions to the climate crisis - now, we just need to push them forward.

Here at The Climate Reality Project, we're working to build popular demand for climate action all around the world. Are you interested in joining a movement to protect our planet and our future? If so, learn how you can become a Climate Reality Leader at a Climate Reality Leadership Corps training. Here, you'll join a global community of activists leading the fight for climate solutions.

Ready to join the movement? Learn more and sign up for training updates at climaterealityproject.org/training.

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How the Climate Crisis is Affecting Arizona

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When you think of Arizona, what usually comes to mind? For most of us, along with scenic desert landscapes, heat is probably at the top of the list. Very intense heat. In terms of average number of 90-plus degree days per year, we're talking the home-of-the-two- hottest-cities-in-the-country-type heat.

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When Pigs Fly Breads, Beacon Street, Brookline, MA, USA

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When Pigs Fly Breads, Beacon Street, Brookline, MA, USA

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When Pigs Fly Breads, Beacon Street, Brookline, MA, USA

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Rising temperatures and stagnant air.

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Climate Change in Illinois

Dr. Jim Angel, State Climatologist

Climate change has become a major issue will have direct and indirect impacts on Illinois. We know the climate in Illinois has changed in the past due to natural forces such as changes in the amount of solar radiation, ocean circulation, volcanoes, etc. However, humans can impact climate on a local, regional, and global scale, through increases in greenhouse gasses, changing aerosols (small particles in the air such as dust or sulfates from coal burning), and land use changes (change from prairie to agriculture to cities). Therefore, climate change is the result of complex interactions between natural and human-induced forces and remains a challenge for planning and adapting to future climate change.

Climate Assessment Summary for Illinois

The NOAA Centers for Environmental Information released climate assessments for each state in 2017, including the Illinois Climate Summary. The key findings for Illinois are:

Average annual temperature has increased by about 1°F since the beginning of the 20th century. There has been seasonal variation in this warming, with average spring temperature increasing by about 2°F and average summer temperature increasing very little. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected by the end of the 21st century.

Precipitation in spring and summer has generally been above average over the past two decades, affecting agriculture in both positive (adequate soil moisture) and negative (delays in spring planting) ways. Precipitation in winter and spring is projected to increase, which poses a continuing risk of spring planting delays.

Severe flooding and drought have occurred periodically in recent years. Future increases in extreme precipitation events and in evaporation rates may increase the intensity of both floods and droughts.

Figure. The observed number of days with extreme precipitation events (annual number of days with precipitation greater than 2 inches) for 1900-2014, averaged over 5-year periods; these values are averages from 43 available long-term reporting stations. A typical station experiences 1-2 such events each year. The number of extreme precipitation events has been above average since the 1990s. During the most recent 5-year period (2010-2014), Illinois experienced a record high number of events when stations averaged more than 2 events annually. The dark horizontal line is the long-term average (1900-2014) of 1.62 days per year. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.

National Climate Assessment: Midwest Region

The 2014 National Climate Assessment reviewed climate trends across the Midwest, including Illinois, in this chapter report. Extreme heat, heavy downpours, and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes. Explore how climate change is affecting the Midwest. The report also has chapters by sectors such as water, agriculture, transportation, forestry, and human health. In addition, there are response strategies presented mitigate or adapt to the current and expected trends. The full report can be found at the National Climate Assessment website. The next National Climate Assessment is currently underway and is expected to be released by the end of 2018.

Illinois

Here are the annual temperature and precipitation trends for Illinois. A more detailed analysis, including tentative conclusions of the 1800s, can be found on the Illinois Trends page

Temperature

Precipitation

Here are two great interactive resources for plotting time series of temperature and precipitation for Illinois or elsewhere

World

Calculating the Earth's temperature is very challenging. Changes in sites, exposure, instruments, procedures, and observers can introduce errors and biases into the data. Observations before 1900 were more sparse and were concentrated in the land areas of the northern hemisphere. However, extensive research has gone into accounting for these issues.

While no data set is perfect, several groups applying different techniques have reached similar conclusions. Furthermore, other kinds of observations support the evidence of warming. These include the observed reduction of glaciers in every continent, reductions in snow cover, shorter ice season on many lakes and rivers, and changes in the oceans.

Groups who have calculated global temperatures include NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GIS), the U.S. National Climatic Data Center.

These data are updated frequently at the NCEI global temperature page.

Other Resources within Illinois

Outside Resources

These external links do no imply an official endorsement by the Water Survey and may not reflect the views of the Illinois State Water Survey, University of Illinois, or the State of Illinois. See this disclaimer for our full policy on external links.

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Climate Change in Illinois, Illinois State Climatologist Office, Illinois State Water Survey, U of I

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Dr. Jim Angel, State Climatologist Climate change has become a major issue will have direct and indirect impacts on Illinois. We know the climate in Illinois has changed in the past due to natural forces such as changes in the amount of solar radiation, ocean circulation, volcanoes, etc.

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There has been  lot of flooding here

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About 100 miles downstream of Hannibal, the boyhood home of Mark Twain, the small Missouri town of West Alton has spent the past week without almost its entire population as it has been completely swamped by water.

William Richter is the mayor of a town he cannot reach. West Alton's 525 people were evacuated due to deadly floods that caused the nearby Mississippi river to surge to 38ft high - a good 17ft above the flood level. Both roads into the town are still cut off.

"You can only really get in and out by tractor," Richter says. "Either that or wade in but it's hard because it's cold and there's ice. You want to get there and help people, but you can't."

Richter thinks West Alton will lose around 20% of its population as residents decide to pack up and leave. It's happened before - following widespread floods in 1993 the town's population dropped by two-thirds.

"There are some good people that just aren't coming back," he says. "The flooding has become just too much of an inconvenience. I really don't want the community to die."

The winter floods, of a scale unseen since the time a young Twain was on a skiff, caught Missouri a little by surprise. Tragically so - at least 24 people have died as a result of the floods so far, with many of these, including a group of overseas soldiers, perishing while trapped in their cars. With the water funneling downstream to southern states that have already declared pre-emptive states of emergency, this grim number is likely to climb.

Heavy flooding isn't meant to occur until spring, when the melting winter snows swell the rivers. Instead, hundreds of people saw in the new year enveloped in the Mississippi, houses marooned in muddy water, trees poking out like rice stalks.

To many Missourians the culprit is clear - a hefty 10 inches of rain fell on east Missouri and west Illinois from Christmas onwards. But others are beginning to wonder whether some difficult choices need to be made in the face of an increasing number of flood events and the misery they cause, rather than simply brushing them off as a flinty reality of midwest life.

In the past eight years, there have been three major flooding events on the Mississippi. The definition of what is considered a rare or freak flood is being stretched. Some residents feel their clean-ups are becoming a little too routine.

Hydrologist Bob Criss, of St Louis's Washington University, recently studied flooding events in Hannibal. Every year between 2009 and 2015, bar one, Hannibal has experienced a flood that's officially considered either a once in every 10-year or once in every 50-year event.

"Our flood frequencies are way off. It's absurd, a tragedy," Criss says. "Every time, the authorities blame unusual rain events. It's balderdash. We are just in denial."

Climate change is playing a role, with extreme downpours becoming more common in the midwest as moisture builds up in the atmosphere. US government scientists warned last year that heavy rainfall and flooding poses a growing risk to the midwest's transportation, agriculture, human health and infrastructure. As if to underline this point, 2015 was the second wettest, as well as second warmest, year on record in the US.

There are other factors, though. Criss blames a combination of risky property development in floodplain areas and a proliferation of levees in the 3,500-mile network of flood defenses along the Mississippi. The levees, barriers made from huge mounds of compacted soil and clay, are meant to divert surging river water to "natural backwater areas" rather than soak citizens.

But the scale of the network appears to be pushing large volumes of water up and invariably out of rivers - a study by Criss and the University of Oxford found that an 800-mile stretch of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers has halved in width since the beginning of the 20th century due to being hemmed in by levees. The US army corps of engineers, which administers the levees, didn't respond to a request for comment.

"The Mississippi should shrug off the rain but instead it's acting like a little river because it's being channeled by levees," Criss says. "Flash flooding shouldn't occur on one of the world's great rivers. But the water has nowhere else to go but on to the heads of people who don't have levees. You need levees for big cities but you can't do it for 1,000 miles because the water needs somewhere to go.

"We seem to be oblivious to the effects of recurrent flooding. Whole neighborhoods were underwater in 1993, in 2008 and now again and we just rebuild in the same place. We're amplifying flood frequency and damage. It's the wrong approach. We need to wake up and smell the coffee."

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Volunteers organized by the non-profit relief agency Convoy of Hope help clean up flood damage along Cessna Drive in Arnold. Photograph: Sid Hastings/The Guardian

In Arnold, Missouri, every other house has mounds of sodden furniture, children's toys and carpet heaped on to muddy front yards. One homeowner has forlornly hauled a full, but ruined, drum kit outside. Another, Jon Thompson, 56, has enlisted the help of a roving band of volunteers to remove the contents of his recently renovated basement that was submerged by six feet of water in just one day.

"I had a 50-inch TV down there and everything," Thompson says ruefully. "The water came through the sewers and I said to my wife: 'We've got to get out of here.' It lifted up the furniture and spun it around. The washer and drier were moving around, still connected to their hoses. That's the power of water, really."

In the town of Arnold, the housing ends abruptly about 200 yards from the river after floods in 1993 caused waterside homes to be purchased and dismantled by the state government as a precaution that has, sadly, proved insufficient. Thompson admits to feeling "helpless" at floods that are causing some long-term residents to consider moving away, like they have in West Alton. The upheaval is wearing a little thin, even among those who have previously met floods with stoicism.

Missouri floods map. Photograph: Guardian

"Some people just accept this will happen, they are the ones with their trailers ready to take their things away," he says. "I thought we had a once in 500 years flood in 1993 and we'd be OK. But we weren't. Some of the people who first came to this neighborhood in 1959 are thinking about that. You're hearing mumblings like: 'You know what, it's time to move.' I think a lot of people will move."

Flood insurance, a decent income and help from friends, family and volunteers are the deciding factors on whether the flood-ravaged can get back on their feet. The government isn't entirely invisible - the national guard has helped fill sandbags and purify water and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) is gearing up to provide assistance - but the frontline is largely manned by faith-based groups, mainly baptists and mennonites. Their trucks, with varying cross-centric logos, swarm around St Louis's suburbs.

In some cases this is enough. The town of Eureka, where 120 homes were damaged, has quickly bounced back thanks to an exemplary community effort. But others are less fortunate and find there is no one they can turn to.

Nearly 700 people in the St Louis region took advantage of one of 13 Red Cross shelters in lieu of ruined homes. But the shelters are winding down now and without family or friends to fall back on, the handful of remaining residents are left in limbo.

"This really is the Taj Mahal of shelters," says Bob Kawka, head of the Red Cross shelter at the huge First Baptist church in Arnold. It has its own elevated jogging track which several displaced people use for their daily constitutionals. "But we are a lifeboat, not a love boat."

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Danny Brininger reads while resting on his cot at the emergency shelter opened by the American Red Cross at Arnold Baptist church. Photograph: Sid Hastings/The Guardian

Uncertainty shrouds the life of Damon Thorne, an amiable 44-year-old man who lives with his mother Linda in a trailer park wedged between a freeway and the Meramac river, a tributary of the Mississippi that experienced record flooding over the new year.

"The water came around the levees and in about an hour's time it was ankle deep," Thorne says. "It was scary. We got some bags of clothes but that was it. There was three feet of water in our trailer. It destroyed our furniture, everything really."

The Thornes' abode is now a warped mess, its wooden floor having bent horribly our of shape, so they are temporarily staying in their landlord's trailer. They had home insurance but it doesn't cover floods. Their county didn't supply sandbags and no volunteers are helping them out.

"We felt like we were abandoned," says Damon, who doesn't work due to severe epilepsy. "We lost everything. We are trying to figure out where we go from here. How do we pick up from here? We are totally lost.

"We are waiting for whatever the federal government can do. Being on a fixed income and disabled makes it hard. Right now we are just hoping for the best and leaving it in God's hands."

Others, sadly, will share the Thornes' fate over the coming week. The flooding surge is set to peak at 40ft in Memphis on Friday, falling to 17ft by the time it reaches New Orleans on 12 January. Preparations are already under way, including the piece-by-piece removal of the treasures of Vicksburg's old depot museum to safer ground.

Back in Arnold, Missouri, Jon Thompson is already planning where his new 50-inch TV will go once his insurance pays out.

"I'll stick it out a few more years here, I'll get a new drywall and TV and everything and then I'll retire and put it up for sale," he says. "I'll go and live on a mountain somewhere. I'd rather ski down than float up there."
Topics

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Missouri residents pack up and leave as once-rare floods become the new normal

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About 100 miles downstream of Hannibal, the boyhood home of Mark Twain, the small Missouri town of West Alton has spent the past week without almost its entire population as it has been completely swamped by water. William Richter is the mayor of a town he cannot reach.

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Increase algae blooms, or "red tides", producing neurotoxins that cause human respiratory illness and widespread mortality of marine life.

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By 2050, there will be an estimated 45 days with a heat index above 100  degrees, compared to the average 6 days per year

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CLOSE

Surely, it will feel hot in Louisville over the next couple of days. But the worst is yet to come.

In a recent study, the Union of Concerned Scientists found that heat indexes - or the "feels like" temperature - will drastically increase across the United States throughout the rest of the century.

For example, if there is no reduction in heat-trapping emissions by 2050, the average number of days per year with a heat index of above 100 degrees will more than double, and the number of days per year above 105 degrees will quadruple.

According to the study, historically, Kentucky has had an average of six days per year with a heat index above 100 degrees. But if no action is taken, that number will increase to 45 days by 2050 and 76 days by 2100.

Of the cities with a population of at least 50,000 in Kentucky, Bowling Green, Louisville and Owensboro would experience the highest frequency of these days.

More on climate: Louisville is going to be hotter and wetter by 2050, study shows

If we crank up the heat, while Kentucky has historically only had an average of one day with a heat index above 105 degrees, by 2050 and 2100, those averages will rise to 26 days and 55 days, respectively.

Louisville hasn't been too scorching this year, according to the North Carolina Climate Office, which has a tool for searching historic heat indexes nationwide, the Louisville area has had a heat index of at or above 100 degrees for six hours of 2019.

According to National Weather Service meteorologist Evan Webb, Louisville had at least briefly hit a heat index of 100 degrees on three days so far this year.

The total number of hours and days with a high heat index will increase very soon in Louisville, as meteorologists predict the heat index to reach above 100 degrees Thursday and possibly even 110 degrees on Friday and Saturday.

Yikes!: 'Oppressive' humidity coming to Louisville with a heat index above 100
Contact Ben Tobin at bjtobin@gannett.com and 502-582-4181 or follow on Twitter @TobinBen. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: subscribe.courier-journal.com.
Read or Share this story: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2019/07/17/kentucky-heat-index-feel-100-degrees-more-often-2050-study/1753795001/

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Kentucky days that feel 100 degrees will soar by 2050 if climate change ignored, study says

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CLOSE Surely, it will feel hot in Louisville over the next couple of days. But the worst is yet to come. In a recent study, the Union of Concerned Scientists found that heat indexes - or the "feels like" temperature - will drastically increase across the United States throughout the rest of the century.

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Charlie Swanson
Possible spot for offshore wind farm

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350 million gallons of sewage spilt due to heavy down pours

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Record rainstorms across the U.S. in the past year have continued to make national news, causing billions of dollars of flood damage and killing dozens. But what has barely made headlines are that these floods often cause massive overflows of untreated sewage into streams, rivers, bays, canals, and even streets and homes. See the full report.

Climate Central has investigated the extent of these sewage overflows. In most cases, we found reports that millions of gallons of untreated sewage were released into streets and waterways. These overflows can have devastating consequences for public health and the environment: they can trigger dangerous outbreaks of waterborne diseases and are often linked to fish kills. And when sewage overflows into homes and businesses, expensive remediation and decontamination is needed to make them safe again.

Worse was the discovery that the true extent of sewage overflow is often undocumented and largely unknown.

From the 70 sewage overflows we identified that had occurred in the past 20 months, overflows of more than one billion gallons combined were reported, triggering health warnings in dozens of cities. Local officials confirmed that these reported volumes are likely underestimating the true extent of overflows; during these flooding emergencies, there is typically no reliable way to determine how much untreated sewage gets into the waterways.

With a backdrop of antiquated and overpopulated sewer systems, the increase in rain and heavy downpours in recent decades - one of the ongoing impacts of climate change - continues to trigger overflows that affect millions of Americans every year.

While many cities are working toward upgrading their sewer systems, they can't eliminate their sewage overflow risks entirely. Climate models project that both overall precipitation, and the amount of rain falling in heavy downpours, will continue to increase this century with continued climate change, which could cause even more overflows.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the epic rains in Louisiana in August 2016 that flooded 60,000 homes and killed 13, were made nearly twice as likely due to carbon pollution in the atmosphere. Climate Central's analysis of more than 3,000 rain gauges nationwide shows that heavy downpours are happening more frequently than they did in the 1950s. We found that all but two of the Lower 48 states have seen an increase in the number of heavy downpours happening each year, on average, compared to the 1950s, and 28 states have seen at least a 25 percent increase in these heaviest events. With downpours projected to be even more frequent and intense as the world continues to warm, we can expect more of these costly and dangerous overflows for many years to come.
Editor's note: This entry has been updated to reflect a larger volume of sewage overflow after Hurricane Hermine in St. Petersburg, as estimated by city officials. Report and analysis by Alyson Kenward, PhD, Nicole Zenes, James Bronzan, Jennifer Brady, Kasturi Shah

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When it Rains it Pours, and Sewage Hits the Fan

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Record rainstorms across the U.S. in the past year have continued to make national news, causing billions of dollars of flood damage and killing dozens. But what has barely made headlines are that these floods often cause massive overflows of untreated sewage into streams, rivers, bays, canals, and even streets and homes.

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The main threats to California are wildfires, droughts, and coastal flooding. The link goes to an article talking about rising threats to California due to Climate Change.

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5 Key Threats to California From Climate Change

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California is threatened by drought, wildfires, smog, diseases, storms, and loss of native fish.

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This article states that 45K acres have been impacted by wild fires in Georgia. https://www.climatecentral.org/news/warmer-future-southeastern-wildfires-20912

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Lia kermes

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How Offshore wind farms can reduce the dependency on fossil fuels in Oregon

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Mississippi river flooding, drought

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drought, wildfires are increasing, crop failure

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In waters off the Alabama coast, and in the forests blanketing much of the state, warmer winters - and warmer nights - are opening paths for pests and invasive species.

Rain patterns have shifted. Long-term forecasts expect a significant rise in the number of 95-degree days in Alabama over the next 50 years, heat that could particularly affect the poor and elderly.

Climate change is starting to transform Alabama.

"The uncertainties have diminished to the point where anybody that denies it is just not paying attention, or they have other motives for denying it," said George Crozier, a retired director of the Dauphin Island Sea Lab on Dauphin Island.

And during the next few decades, climate-related changes in Alabama could accelerate.

Under current fossil fuel consumption models, the Southeast is expected to warm considerably over the next several decades. The Fourth National Assessment of Climate Change, released by the federal U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program last November, foresees summers where daytime temperatures usually stay at 95 degrees or above, and nighttime lows rarely dip below 75. Days requiring air conditioning are expected to double. Days requiring heating could fall by a third.

That could have significant impacts on human health, driving up the risks from heat-related illnesses. The National Climate Assessment in 2018 said the Southeast was responsible for nearly 29% of heat-related deaths in the United States between 2000 and 2010. Those warmer days could also put more ozone in the air, contributing to respiratory illnesses. Or allow mosquitoes to live year-round, extending the threat of illnesses. Birmingham is already experiencing heat waves that are longer and more intense than the nation as a whole.

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Climate change could also alter state industries, particularly forestry and fishing, as added heat and shifting water supplies alter flora and fauna. Scientists throughout multiple disciplines say the area needs more study to help prepare Alabamians for what's coming.

Because one thing is clear: Alabama will be different.

Climate change has been less intensely studied in the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast than other regions in the country. Studies of fish stock in the Gulf, for example, don't go nearly as far back as similar studies on the West Coast and in the Northeast.

"In the Chesapeake Bay, there are more studies than in the entire Gulf of Mexico," said Dr. Ken Heck, a marine ecologist at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab. "Money rolls downhill from Washington into Chesapeake Bay. We call this the third coast."

Alabama and other portions of the Southeast have also seen average maximum temperatures (daily highs) that are the same or - in the case of summers - slightly cooler compared to the 1930s. Vasubandhu Misra, a professor of meteorology at Florida State University who has studied the "global warming hole," said in an interview several theories to explain it have been advanced, including shifts in rainfall and reforestation of the Southeast in the 20th century.

But, Misra said, the cooling in Alabama is in the past. All other indices show temperatures rising.

"The global warming hole is filling up," Misra said. "There is a warming trend. The cooling trend is reducing over time."

Even if the days were slightly cooler, the nights in the Southeast have become hotter since the 1960s. Winter and springtime temperatures have also gone up during that time. The period from 2010 to 2017 featured the hottest nights recorded in the Southeast, the National Climate Assessment said.

"During the 2010s, the number of nights with minimum temperatures greater than 75 degrees Fahrenheit was nearly double the long-term average for 1901-1960, while the length of the freeze-free season was nearly 1½ weeks greater than any other period in the historical record," the report said.

Warmer nights and shorter cold periods have a multitude of effects. In the state's forests, they draw moisture out of trees, affecting growth patterns, and giving pests more time to damage trees. With fewer freezes, aquatic species from more tropical regions are beginning to thrive in the waters off the state. Those species, or their offspring, used to die when the temperature dropped. With Mobile becoming a tropical zone, that's no longer the case - with, at best, uncertainty for the life that's already there.

"We've always had them coming in," said Heck. "What's different now is we're not having the cold winter nights that knocked them out. It's allowed them to survive."

More and frequent storm events are making their mark on the state. One study that tracked 70 climate-related natural disasters that caused $1 billion in damage between 1980 and 2007 found 21 affected Alabama. Increased threats from storm surges will likely stress the transportation system in the Mobile area, particularly the seaport.

"Damage can range from debris removal to complete destruction of certain assets," a 2012 Federal Highway Administration study of the Mobile area said. "The direct costs of clean up, repair and replacement can be high, and the secondary implications of disrupted transportation networks and supply chains can have widespread impacts on community life, and on the local and regional economy."

Even without large storms, more rain is falling in Alabama. According to a 2016 report by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, rain in Alabama has increased between 5 and 10% since 1950. Stations in north and south Alabama have reported increases in extreme rainfall events - defined as days with 3 or more inches of rain - as high as 40%. When the Mobile Area Water and Sewer System (MAWSS) reached a consent decree with environmental groups in 2001 over violations of the Clean Water Act, the decree came with a specific definition of what a 100-year flood event was, to determine events when MAWSS might not have to pay a penalty.

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"When we redid that agreement (in 2017), we made them go back and re-evaluate what a rain event was," said Casi Callaway, executive director of Mobile Baykeeper, one of the groups involved in the negotiations. "And that has changed dramatically. We've had four 100-year flood events in the last six years. When that happens, that's not a 100-year flood event anymore." (Messages seeking comment were left with MAWSS.)

All the rain could impact Mobile Bay, already seeing a potential influx of saltwater from rising ocean levels. Rising sea levels could increase saltwater intrusions into coastal areas, affecting not only wildlife but threatening marshes in the Mobile-Tensaw delta that act as natural filters for water flowing into the bay. Conversely, increased rainfall could lower salinity in Mobile Bay, which could wreak havoc on species such as oysters. Mississippi has already seen a significant loss of oysters this year, thanks to rains in the Midwest that forced freshwater into the bay.

North of the bay, shifting precipitation and higher temperatures are likely to impact the state's agriculture and forest industry. Drier, hotter conditions in the West could shift more agriculture into Alabama and the Southeast from areas no longer able to sustain them. Corn and cotton could thrive. But other crops, like wheat and soybeans, could decline.

And even with increased rainfall, the land might struggle to hold onto moisture. Despite increased rainfall, higher temperatures could send more water into the air, reducing water supplies and leading to longer drought periods. Longer periods of warmth and drier soils could radically alter the state's forests. Steve McNulty, director of the USDA's Southeastern Climate Hub, said an absence of water would force trees over time to spread out, resulting in forests with less canopy cover, and shorter, thicker trees that could force changes to the forest industry in the state.

"It's not because (trees) don't want the sunlight," McNulty said. "It's because if they've got less water, those leaves would take more water."

Evaporation, combined with population growth and increased need for irrigation by farmers, could cut the water supply in Alabama by as much as 5% over the next four decades. Scott Duncan, an author writing a book on climate change in the Southeast, said in a recent interview that will have consequences not only for agriculture but for energy plants that rely on water resources to cool off their turbines.

"It gets even more acute and worse in the future because we don't have a plan," he said. "I would love to see Alabama have a plan and then build into the system resiliency and adaptability."

Some state agencies are factoring climate change into their plans. The Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources' Coastal Comprehensive Plan includes a point to identify "areas vulnerable to sea level change and coastal storms and characterizes the resilience of the area." In a statement, Gov. Kay Ivey pointed to those factors as "tools in the toolbox to be prepared for anything that might come in our future."

"We must always be good stewards of the Earth," the statement said. "In Alabama, we are very fortunate to be blessed with an abundance of natural resources - from our timber to our Gulf waters. It is our duty to take care of our resources, and we are certainly always working to do that."

Generally, though, state leaders have been at best uneasy about climate change and at worst openly hostile to the idea that it's happening. The state does not have a comprehensive climate change plan, and officials have rarely addressed the topic. The then-Democratic-controlled Legislature in 2009 passed a resolution encouraging action on climate change, though the resolution was more focused on protecting existing jobs and industry than attacking consequences of climate change for the state. This attitude shifted after the Republican-controlled Legislature in 2011 passed a resolution calling on Congress - "by any means necessary" - to prohibit the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency from regulating greenhouse gases.

Republicans in the U.S. Senate race have taken different approaches. Though critical of the Green New Deal proposed by House Democrats, U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne, R-Mobile, said last February he wanted to see a "moonshot" of technology investment to address climate change. On the other end, Republican candidate John Merrill, the Alabama secretary of state, appeared to shrug off the issue at his campaign kickoff in June.

"Climate change and weather changes and atmospheric changes have been happening since the Lord created this world," Merrill said.

One reason scientists across multiple disciplines seek better studies of climate change in the Southeast is to help the region plan for those changes. Because the changes are coming.

"I think that what's kind of scary is that what was an unreasonable radical extreme 10 years ago is no longer an extreme," Crozier said. "The extremes have ratcheted up 10, 50, 100%."
Next in the series: How warming temperatures could alter Alabama's forests. CLIMATE AND CHANGE
Part 2: How a hotter world could transform Alabama's forests

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Climate and change: Rising temperatures transforming Alabama

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In waters off the Alabama coast, and in the forests blanketing much of the state, warmer winters - and warmer nights - are opening paths for pests and invasive species. Rain patterns have shifted. Long-term forecasts expect a significant rise in the number of 95-degree days in Alabama over the next 50 years, heat that could particularly affect the poor and elderly.

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adaption,pests,wildfires, melting snowpacks, increasing temps.

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native communities, adaption, pests, wildfires, melting snowpacks, increasing temps.

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WY: Adaption, wildfires,increasing temps, melting snowpack/glaciers.

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https://www.metroparent.com/m-parenting-issues-tips/michigan-environmental-issues-affect-families/

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sinkhole caused by heavy rain/flooding

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Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area, TX, USA

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Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area, TX, USA

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Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area, TX, USA

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One of the most polluted cities  in the state. The air and water pollution are causing a problem on top of the abundance of oil spills.

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In our emails, sent once or twice a week, you'll receive: * alerts on new threats to Texas' environment * opportunities to join other Texans on urgent actions * updates on the decisions that impact our environment * resources to help you create a cleaner, greener future

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Major temperature rises in HI!

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This was the site of the 2006 and 2017 BP Oil Spill

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ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) - Regulators in the U.S. state of Alaska will investigate all of the oil and natural gas wells operated by BP Plc at its Prudhoe Bay oil field after the release of a small amount of crude oil and gas from a well that had earlier been shut.

The Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (AOGCC) has scheduled a Feb. 7 hearing "to assess the mechanical integrity of Prudhoe Bay wells operated by BP Exploration (Alaska), Inc.," the agency said in a notice issued on Friday.

Last month's leak occurred at one of 14 wells that BP had shut in 2017 following a much bigger release oil and gas then.

The most recent failure, detected on Dec. 7, released natural gas and about two gallons of crude oil, said Megan Baldino, spokeswoman for BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc. The gas release was brought under control two days later, she said. There was no oil released to the tundra and no one was injured, she said.

There are 1,780 Prudhoe Bay wells, said Baldino, adding that the company is cooperating with the AOGCC's investigation.

"BP is investigating the incident to determine the cause. We are cooperating with AOGCC's request for more information," she said in an email on Monday.

The earlier failure, in April 2017, caused crude oil to spray over a roughly 1 acre (0.4 hectare) area and caused natural gas to vent for days before it was brought under control.

That well failure was linked to permafrost thaw. The normally frozen soil thawed, triggering movement that pushed the well up 3 to 4 feet (1.2 meters), breaking a pressure gauge that previously regulated the site, according to regulators.

That sparked a North Slope-wide well review ordered by the AOGCC. In the end, BP identified and shut the 14 wells that because of an outdated and flawed design.

In the aftermath of that incident, AOGCC officials concluded that the permafrost thaw was the result of the wells' design flaw, not to climate change.

However, permafrost in Prudhoe Bay, which is located on the Alaska North Slope region above the Arctic Circle, from the area near the tundra's surface to the depths far below it, has warmed significantly since the 1980s in response to the rising temperatures in that region, according to scientists at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks.

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oil and gas refining and marketing (trbc)

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Alaska officials probing BP oil, gas wells at Prudhoe Bay after spill

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Regulators in the U.S. state of Alaska will investigate all of the oil and natural gas wells operated by BP Plc at its Prudhoe Bay oil field after the release of a small amount of crude oil and gas from a well that had earlier been shut.