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Rising heat-related emissions a 'serious challenge' to climate targets, study finds

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A new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that up to 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate change, largely from extreme heat, heavy rainfall, drought and fire

Climate change is already wreaking widespread, pervasive and sometimes irreversible impacts on people and ecosystems globally, according to a landmark report warning it has become increasingly clear there are limits to how much humanity can adapt to a warming world.

The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that up to 3.6 billion people live in areas highly vulnerable to climate change, largely from extreme heat, heavy rainfall, drought and weather setting the stage for fires. During a press conference, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres called it "an atlas of human suffering".

Since the last assessment by the panel eight years ago, it has increasingly been possible to pin the impacts of extreme weather events on human-made climate change. A clear message from the 35-page summary for policy makers (the full report is 3675 pages) is that holding warming to the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement will limit the impacts and make adaptation more feasible.

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"We have an increased understanding that there are limits to adaptation," says Rachel Warren, a lead author on the report, based at the University of East Anglia, UK. "What has come out is a really, really strong message that at 2°C the risks are several times greater than they are at 1.5°C. Many things become much, much more difficult to manage at 2°C than 1.5°." Guterres put it bluntly: "Delay means death."

Despite the commitments nearly 200 countries made in the Glasgow Climate Pact at the COP26 summit last November, the world is still on track for more than 2°C of warming.

The report finds that climate change is already affecting people's physical health and, for the first time explicitly in an IPCC report, their mental health too. Helen Adams at King's College London, an IPCC lead author, says the main mental toll is from extreme weather impacts, such as dealing with flooded homes, but also through "eco anxiety".

Climate change's burdens are falling unequally on the richest and poorest, says the report. The world's most vulnerable people are found to be in mostly low-income nations in West, East and central Africa, South Asia and South America, as well as those living in island states and Arctic regions. Deaths from floods, droughts and storms in those regions were found to be 15 times higher than the least vulnerable areas, mostly high-income nations such as Canada and the UK, between 2010 and 2020.

During the press conference, Inger Anderson of the UN Environment Programme said the report showed impacts are here now, not just in the future: "Climate change isn't lurking around the corner waiting to pounce, it's already upon on us, raining down blows on billions of people."

Overall, the economic impact of a rapidly warming world has been adverse, according to the report. But there have been economic positives regionally, including for farming, tourism and lower energy demand.

The IPCC highlights the impact on cities, now home to more than half the global population. Urban areas are increasingly being hit by heat, floods and storms affecting energy and transport and aggravating air pollution.

The 2030s and 2040s will bring an unavoidable increase in hazards for people worldwide because there is already 1.5°C of warming baked in by our past greenhouse gas emissions. By mid-century, around a billion people will be at risk of coastal impacts such as flooding, including those in small island states, some of which face an "existential threat" later this century. If the world warms by 2°C, that will endanger food security, leading to malnutrition in some regions.

It isn't only humans bearing the brunt, but nature too: climate change is thought to be responsible for at least two species' extinctions. If global average temperatures rise by 1.5°C, up to 14 per cent of species on land will be likely to face a very high risk of extinction in future. At 3°C, the figure is up to 29 per cent.

However, Adams cautions against being fatalistic in the face of dire projections, because they hinge on how much societies cut their emissions and how much they adapt. "Yes, things are bad. But actually, the future depends on us, not the climate," she says. The report finds that holding warming to 1.5°C "substantially" cuts the losses and damages from climate change, but "cannot eliminate them all".

Attempts to adapt to a warming world, such as building flood defences and planting different varieties of crops, have made progress since the last assessment in 2014. But they fall far short of what is needed, they are uneven globally and there is growing evidence that adaptation can have negative side effects, such as sea defences causing knock-on erosion along coasts. "Most observed adaptation is fragmented, small in scale, incremental", says the report.

Published on the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of the report's authors says the war risks derailing focus and action on climate change. "If we're going back into a world of a cold war, thinking about climate change is something which we then don't do with the urgency with which we need," says Daniela Schmidt at the University of Bristol, UK.

During Sunday's final approval of the report, which is signed off line by line by governments, the head of the Russian delegation reportedly told colleagues: "this [war] is not the wish of all the Russian people and the Russian people were not asked". The Ukrainian delegation asked colleagues to continue and expressed how upset they were the war "will detract from the importance" of the report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

The assessment, part of the sixth round of reports by the IPCC since the first in 1990, closes with an urgent message: "Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all."
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Climate change causing widespread and irreversible impacts, says IPCC

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A new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that up to 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate change, largely from extreme heat, heavy rainfall, drought and fire Climate change is already wreaking widespread, pervasive and sometimes irreversible impacts on people and ecosystems globally, according to a landmark report warning it has become increasingly clear there are limits to how much humanity can adapt to a warming world.

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Scientists are observing changes in the Earth's climate in every region and across the whole climate system, according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report, released today (9 August).

Many of the changes observed in the climate are 'unprecedented' in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years, and some of the changes already set in motion-such as continued sea level rise-are irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years, the report finds.

However, strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases would limit climate change, it says.

We now have a much clearer picture of the past, present and future climate, which is essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be done, and how we can prepare

While benefits for air quality would come quickly, it could take 20-30 years to see global temperatures stabilise, according to the IPCC Working Group I report, Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis.

The Working Group I report is the first instalment of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed in 2022.

"This report reflects extraordinary efforts under exceptional circumstances," said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC.

"The innovations in this report, and advances in climate science that it reflects, provide an invaluable input into climate negotiations and decision-making."

Faster warming

The report provides new estimates of the chances of crossing the global warming level of 1.5°C in the next decades, and finds that unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.

The report suggests that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming since 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of warming.

This assessment is based on improved observational datasets to assess historical warming, as well progress in scientific understanding of the response of the climate system to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

"This report is a reality check," said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Valérie Masson-Delmotte. "We now have a much clearer picture of the past, present and future climate, which is essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be done, and how we can prepare."

Increasing changes

Many characteristics of climate change directly depend on the level of global warming, according to the IPCC but it says what people experience is often very different to the global average. For example, warming over land is larger than the global average, and it is more than twice as high in the Arctic.

"Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth, in multiple ways. The changes we experience will increase with additional warming," said IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair Panmao Zhai.

The report projects that in the coming decades climate changes will increase in all regions. For 1.5°C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons. At 2°C of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, the report shows.

But it is not just about temperature. Climate change is bringing multiple different changes in different regions - which will all increase with further warming, according to the findings. These include changes to wetness and dryness, to winds, snow and ice, coastal areas and oceans. For example:

Climate change is intensifying the water cycle. This brings more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as more intense drought in many regions.

Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. In high latitudes, precipitation is likely to increase, while it is projected to decrease over large parts of the subtropics. Changes to monsoon precipitation are expected, which will vary by region.

Coastal areas will see continued sea level rise throughout the 21st century, contributing to more frequent and severe coastal flooding in low-lying areas and coastal erosion. Extreme sea level events that previously occurred once in 100 years could happen every year by the end of this century.

Further warming will amplify permafrost thawing, and the loss of seasonal snow cover, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and loss of summer Arctic sea ice.

Changes to the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and reduced oxygen levels have been clearly linked to human influence. These changes affect both ocean ecosystems and the people that rely on them, and they will continue throughout at least the rest of this century.

For cities, some aspects of climate change may be amplified, including heat (since urban areas are usually warmer than their surroundings), flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities.

Human actions

For the first time, the Sixth Assessment Report provides a more detailed regional assessment of climate change, including a focus on useful information that can inform risk assessment, adaptation, and other decision-making, and a new framework that helps translate physical changes in the climate - heat, cold, rain, drought, snow, wind, coastal flooding and more - into what they mean for society and ecosystems.

This regional information can be explored in detail in the newly developed Interactive Atlas interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch as well as regional fact sheets, the technical summary, and underlying report.

"It has been clear for decades that the Earth's climate is changing, and the role of human influence on the climate system is undisputed," said Masson-Delmotte.

Yet the new report also reflects major advances in the science of attribution - understanding the role of climate change in intensifying specific weather and climate events such as extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall events.

Leadership starts at home. No more dither and delay. In the UK, we need the policy to match the ambition the government has already shown

The report also shows that human actions still have the potential to determine the future course of climate. The evidence is clear that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main driver of climate change, even as other greenhouse gases and air pollutants also affect the climate.

"Stabilising the climate will require strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and reaching net zero CO2 emissions. Limiting other greenhouse gases and air pollutants, especially methane, could have benefits both for health and the climate," said Zhai.

Chris Venables, head of politics at Green Alliance, said: "While this report should set off alarm bells around the world, the worry is that politicians will yet again hit the snooze button.

"This stark warning further underlines the importance of world leaders, and especially our prime minister, bringing about real change at COP26 in Glasgow.

" Leadership starts at home. No more dither and delay. In the UK, we need the policy to match the ambition the government has already shown."

CIWM commented on the report, saying: "CIWM recognises the critical role of effective and sustainable waste management in helping to mitigate the climate emergency and welcomes the findings in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report which reaffirm what we already knew: that urgent action is required to protect the future of our planet.

"As the pre-eminent membership organisation representing and supporting resources and waste managers both in the UK and overseas, our mission is to unite, equip and mobilise our professional community to deliver the science, strategies, businesses and policies required to create a sustainable future."

Tagged Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, net zero

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Climate change 'widespread, rapid, and intensifying' - IPCC

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Scientists are observing changes in the Earth's climate in every region and across the whole climate system, according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report, released today (9 August).

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New climate change report issues ‘dire warning about the consequences of inaction’

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Climate change is already disrupting people’s lives in multiple ways across different parts of the world.

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'Dire warning': Human-induced climate change already affecting 3.3bn people, report finds

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Many of the impacts of global warming are now simply "irreversible" according to the UN's latest assessment.

But the authors of a new report say that there is still a brief window of time to avoid the very worst.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that humans and nature are being pushed beyond their abilities to adapt.

Over 40% of the world's population are "highly vulnerable" to climate, the sombre study finds.

But there's hope that if the rise in temperatures is kept below 1.5C, it would reduce projected losses.

Just four months on from COP26, where world leaders committed themselves to rapid action on climate change, this new UN study shows the scale of their task.

"Our report clearly indicates that places where people live and work may cease to exist, that ecosystems and species that we've all grown up with and that are central to our cultures and inform our languages may disappear," said Prof Debra Roberts, co-chair of the IPCC.

"So this is really a key moment. Our report points out very clearly, this is the decade of action, if we are going to turn things around."

This report from the IPCC is the second of three reviews from the world's foremost body of climate researchers.

Last August, the first instalment highlighted the scale of the effect that humans were having on the climate system.

This new report looks at the causes, impacts and solutions to climate change. It gives the clearest indication to date of how a warmer world is affecting all the living things on Earth.

The report is a stark account of the fierce consequences that the world is already experiencing, like growing numbers of people dying from heat.

But the authors say that there is still a brief window of time to avoid the very worst.

"One of the things that I think is really, really clear in the report is that yes, things are bad, but actually, the future depends on us, not the climate," said Dr Helen Adams, a lead author on the report from King's College, London.

The report shows that extreme weather events linked to climate change like floods and heatwaves are hitting humans and other species much harder than previous assessments indicated.

The new study says that these impacts are already going beyond the ability of many people to cope.

While everyone is affected, some are being hit much harder. This outcome very much depends on where you live.

Between 2010 and 2020, 15 times more people died from floods, droughts and storms in very vulnerable regions including parts of Africa, South Asia and Central and South America, than in other parts of the world.

Nature is already seeing dramatic impacts at the current level of warming.

Coral reefs are being bleached and dying from rising temperatures, while many trees are succumbing to drought.

The report highlights the increasing impacts that are expected as the rise in global temperatures, currently around 1.1C, heads to 1.5C.

Continued and accelerating sea level rise will increasingly hit coastal settlements pushing them towards "submergence and loss".

Under all emissions scenarios, the IPCC expects a billion more people to be at risk from coastal specific climate hazards in the next few decades.

If temperatures rise to between 1.7 and 1.8C above the 1850s level, then the report states that half the human population could be exposed to periods of life-threatening climatic conditions arising from heat and humidity.

Commenting on the summary, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres described it as an "atlas of human suffering". He has no doubt as to where the blame lies.

"The facts are undeniable. This abdication of leadership is criminal. The world's biggest polluters are guilty of arson of our only home."

Health a growing concern

Diseases will likely spread more quickly in the coming decades, say the study's authors.

There is a particular risk that changing climactic conditions will ease the spread of mosquito-borne dengue fever to billions more by the end of this century.

As well as the physical health impacts, this report, for the first time, states that climate change may be exacerbating mental health issues, including stress and trauma related to extreme weather events and the loss of livelihoods and culture.

Warming threats to species

About half of the living organisms assessed in the report are already moving, to higher ground or towards the poles.

While up to 14% of species assessed will likely face a very high risk of extinction if the world warms by 1.5C, this will rise to up to 29% of species at 3C of warming.

For creatures living in areas that are classed as vulnerable biodiversity hotspots, their already very high extinction risk is expected to double as warming rises towards 2C, and to go up tenfold if the world goes to 3C.

Some researchers have speculated that going over 1.5C for a short period would be acceptable if temperatures came back down below the level soon afterwards.

This report says there are dangers with this approach.

"In any overshoot there's an increasing risk of hitting tipping points and triggering feedback, in the climate system, like permafrost thawing," said Linda Schneider from the Heinrich Boll Institute, who was an observer at the IPCC discussions.

"That would make it a lot more difficult, it could make it impossible to get back below 1.5C."

The report is disdainful of technological fixes like deflecting the Sun's rays or removing carbon dioxide from the air, saying they could make things worse.

The summary for policymakers puts much focus on "climate resilient development," which it says helps build the strength to cope with climate change in every society.

"If our development pathways are ones in which health systems don't improve much, education doesn't improve much, our economies aren't growing very fast and inequality remains a big problem, that's a world where a particular amount of climate change is going to have a really big impact," said Prof Brian O'Neill, an IPCC coordinating lead author from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in the US.

"In contrast, if it's a world where we are really making rapid progress on education and health and poverty, if climate change is imposed on that society, the risk will be much lower."

Follow Matt on Twitter @mattmcgrathbbc.

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Climate change: IPCC report warns of 'irreversible' impacts of global warming

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Many of the impacts of global warming are now simply "irreversible" according to the UN's latest assessment. But the authors of a new report say that there is still a brief window of time to avoid the very worst. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that humans and nature are being pushed beyond their abilities to adapt.

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Climate change: Five things we’ve learned from the IPCC report

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What are the key messages in the UN’s sober study on the impacts and risks from rising temperatures?