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verona koh
lee wang qian
yong qin
oshar
pearl ang

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ARTICLE
The Malaysian economy as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is forecasted to grow between 4.3% and 4.8% in 2017 from a year earlier, on domestic demand growth and as exports improve.

According to Bank Negara Malaysia’s 2016 Annual Report, domestic demand would continue to be the main driver of the nation's economic growth, underpinned by private sector activity.

Bank Negara said the country's exports and imports were expected to strengthen on projected improvement in global economic growth, higher commodity prices and sustained domestic demand.

"With the gradual improvement in global growth, recovery in global commodity prices and the continued growth of domestic demand are expected to collectively support Malaysia’s growth performance.

The Malaysian economy is projected to register a sustained growth of between 4.3% and 4.8% in 2017.

"Global economic activity is projected to improve in 2017, underpinned by an expansion in domestic demand in the advanced and emerging market economies, boosted in part by expansionary fiscal policies in selected major economies. These pro-growth policies would spur global demand and provide impetus to global trade," Bank Negara said.

On Malaysia's supply side, all major economic sectors are expected to register growth. Bank Negara said the services and manufacturing industries would be the key contributors to GDP growth.

The agriculture sector is expected to rebound, as yields recover from the El Niño weather phenomenon.

"Growth in the mining sector is expected to remain steady, as a stronger expansion in natural gas output offsets a moderation in the crude oil sub-sector," Bank Negara said.

Bank Negara's 2017 Malaysia GDP growth forecast at between 4.3% and 4.8% is better than the country's 2016 GDP expansion of 4.2%. In 2015, the country's GDP grew 5%.
ANALYSIS
The GDP growth of Malaysia was forecasted at between 4.3% to 4.8% as there seem to be an expected increase in the number of goods and services sold in formal markets due to domestic and global demands and pro-growth policies.

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ARTICLE
According to the National Statistical Institute, consumer prices fell by 0.25% in April (April: -0.08 month-on-month), which marked the largest decrease since September 2016. The monthly drop reflected much lower prices for transport—the category that carries the third largest weight in the consumer price index. Price increases in most other categories were not enough to prevent April’s contraction.

As a result of the month-on-month drop, inflation in April came in at 4.4%, which was significantly below March’s 5.1% gain and undershot market expectations of a 4.5% reading. Meanwhile, annual average inflation edged up to 2.5% in April from 2.3% in March.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 2.6% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2018, the panel sees inflation stable at 2.6%.
ANALYSIS
the CPI of Malaysia has dropped due to the decrease in prices of transport.
This resulted in a cost-pull inflation caused by increase in prices of transport. However, this was the lowest inflation rate since January 2017 as there was a steady inflation of food prices.

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Consumer prices in Malaysia rose 4.4 percent year-on-year in April of 2017, compared to a 5.1 percent increase in March and slightly below market expectations of a 4.5 percent rise. It was the lowest inflation rate since January 2017, mainly due to a marked slowdown in cost of transport while food inflation was steady. Core consumer prices went up 2.3 percent year-on-year, compared to a 2.5 percent rise in the prior month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined by 0.3 percent in April, following a 0.1 percent fall in a month earlier and the second straight month drop since September 2016. Inflation Rate in Malaysia averaged 3.64 percent from 1973 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 23.90 percent in March of 1974 and a record low of -2.40 percent in July of 2009.

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With the country that you have in mind, each group shall select a maximum of 3 news articles that are related to macroeconomics concepts taught so far (e.g. GDP, Unemployment, Inflation, Keynesian Model).  The selected article(s) must be dated after 31 Jan 2017.  Please ensure that the chosen article(s) encompasses at least THREE topics with distinct economic issues that you could do your analysis on.

The padlet wall should contain the chosen news article(s) and preliminary analysis. Your tutor will comment thereafter, ensuring your group is on the right track.

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Unemployment among graduates needs to be sorted out fast

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Unemployment among graduates needs to be sorted out fast

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Bank Negara’s latest annual report has devoted a section to the unemployment among youths, touching on Malaysia’s position compared to other countries, and what the possible long-term implications are and measures that need to be taken.

According to the survey based on 2015 numbers, when the national unemployment figure was at 3.1%, the unemployment rate among youths was about 10.7% – three times the national average.

Thailand and Singapore have a higher ratio of youth unemployment compared to their national averages at 4.4 times and 3.9 times, respectively.

Among the youths in the workforce, the percentage of those unemployed is higher among those with a tertiary education compared to the ones without a tertiary education. In 2015, of the 405,000 youths with tertiary education, 15.3% were unemployed.

Compare this to the unemployment among those without a tertiary education, where out of the 2.162 million youths without tertiary education, only 9.8% were unemployed.

The annual report cited a study by the Ministry of Education that stated that only 53% of the 273,373 graduates in 2015 were employed within six months of graduating. Another 18% opted to pursue their studies, while 24% were unemployed.

In terms of salaries, 54% of graduates who were employed earned less than RM2,000 a month.

Put in a nutshell, only half of those who graduate are able to secure a job, while a quarter are jobless six months after getting their scrolls. And of the graduates who have secured a job, about half are earning less than RM2,000.

ANALYSIS
With regard to this, the possible change in unemployment with March 2016 to March 2017 being -0.1% is due to the number of graduates being unable to get a job or being underpaid  as to what they should be earning with their level of certificates.

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Labour force in Malaysia as of March 2017. The Labour force participation rate(LFPR) is at 67.7% while the unemployment rate is 3.4%.  The labour force for the month of March is 14932.5 while the previous month is at 14916.7. The labour force has increase by 0.1%. But that does not mean that the LFPR has increased as well, in fact the previous month was at 67.8% which resulted in a change of -0.1%. As for the unemployed, in the month of March, it is at 510.8 while for the previous month, it is at 514.8. There is a -0.8% change in unemployed. With this, the Unemployment rate in March is at 3.4% while in the previous month is 3.5% which resulted in an increase of unemployment rate by 0.1%. The previous stated analysis are based on a month-on-month basis. As for the year-on-year analysis, the labour force has a change of 1.5% on March 2016 with 14710.1 as compared to March 2017 with 14932.5. The unemployed has an increase as well with a change of 0.3%. At March 2016 it was 509.5, and as for March 2017 it is at 510.8. With due to this, the unemployment rate has made a change of -0.1% with March 2016 at 3.5% and March 2017 at 3.4%.