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Robotics: Optimistic and Pessimistic Futures

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Robotics: Optimistic and Pessimistic Futures

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This Padlet explores predictions about the future of robotics from both optimistic and pessimistic perspectives. Our group used ChatGPT to generate scenarios that highlight the potential benefits—such as improved healthcare, productivity, and quality of life—as well as the possible risks—including ethical concerns and social inequality. Each prediction is expanded with supporting quotes from academic and journalistic sources to critically evaluate whether these narratives are overly optimistic or pessimistic.

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Optimistic Prediction with Supporting Evidence

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Optimistic Prediction with Supporting Evidence

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Better Healthcare Support
Medical robots can help doctors perform precise surgeries and assist in elderly care. This could improve healthcare quality and deliver better recovery outcomes.

Supporting Evidence

Academic Source

English: Recent systematic reviews indicate rapid adoption of AI-assisted robotic surgery across multiple specialties, driven by improved accuracy and reduced complication rates.

News Source

English: MarketWatch reports a future where AI and robots assist nursing home residents with mobility, hygiene, and emotional support, improving safety and reducing neglect.https://www.marketwatch.com/story/future-nursing-homes-will-be-run-by-ai-and-robots-why-that-might-not-be-a-bad-thing-0d4b109f?utm_source=chatgpt.com

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Pessimistic predictions about the social consequences of robotics

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Pessimistic predictions about the social consequences of robotics

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1. Massive Job Displacement

Robotics could hollow out entire sectors of employment. Low-skill, routine, and even many skilled jobs (warehouse work, driving, logistics, customer service, surgery assistance, journalism, law, etc.) may be automated. Unlike previous industrial shifts, new job creation might not keep pace, leaving a “surplus population” with few viable roles. This could deepen long-term unemployment, underemployment, and economic inequality.

2. Widening Wealth Gaps

The benefits of robotics may concentrate in the hands of corporations and elites who own the technology. Productivity gains may not “trickle down,” leading to an even sharper divide between tech capital owners and displaced workers. A two-tier society could emerge: those who control automation and those rendered economically irrelevant.

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Robots can perform hazardous industrial tasks—like heavy lifting or toxic material handling—helping reduce workplace injuries and fatalities.

Evidence

U.S.–Germany study: robot exposure reduced ~1.2 injuries per 100 workers (NBER, 2022).

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1.Ethical and Moral Dilemmas：

a. Autonomous Weapons (Killer Robots):

· The UN has repeatedly debated banning Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS). Human Rights Watch (2018) warned that delegating life-and-death decisions to machines risks violating international humanitarian law.

· Israel’s Harpy drone and Russia’s autonomous tank prototypes already demonstrate how robots can independently identify and strike targets.

b. Accountability Gap

· Sparrow (2007) in Ethics and Information Technology pointed out the “responsibility gap”: if an autonomous robot commits a war crime, responsibility is unclear—operator, programmer, manufacturer, or the military?

c. Medical Robots

· Studies in BMJ Quality & Safety (2019) note that surgical robots have been linked to errors, including unexpected deaths, raising questions of liability—should it be the surgeon, the hospital, or the robot manufacturer?

2.Social Isolation from Robotics

a.Substitution Effect

· Sparrow & Sparrow (2006) in Australasian Journal on Ageing noted that when institutions rely heavily on robotic caregivers, human caregivers reduce their visits, leading to emotional neglect of the elderly.

b. Illusion of Companionship

· Sherry Turkle (Alone Together, 2011) argues that social robots (e.g., the Paro robot seal) create an “illusion of relationship”—people feel connected but actually engage less in authentic human interaction

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Reducing Loneliness and Isolation& Privacy and surveillance risks

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Reducing Loneliness and Isolation& Privacy and surveillance risks

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Positive Impact: Reducing Loneliness and Isolation. Companion robots can serve as companions for the elderly, patients, or those living alone, helping to alleviate their feelings of loneliness and providing emotional support. Companion robots aim to enhance well-being, quality of life, and independence by offering services and companionship as well as assisting with daily activities(Kim, 2021).

Kim, J., Kim, S., Kim, S., Lee, E., Heo, Y., Hwang, C.-Y., Choi, Y.-Y., Kong, H.-J., Ryu, H., & Lee, H. (2021). Companion robots for older adults: Rodgers’ evolutionary concept analysis approach. Intelligent Service Robotics, 14(5), 729–739. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11370-021-00394-3

Negative impact: Social robots are often equipped with cameras, microphones, and networking systems. However, this simultaneously brings serious privacy risks. Users' home environments, health information, and even emotional states may be recorded and transmitted without their knowledge, for commercial analysis or third-party purposes. This form of surveillance is more covert than traditional internet devices because social robots are embedded in private living spaces in the guise of "companionship", making it easier for users to relax their vigilance(Calo, 2015).

Calo, R. (2015). Robotics and the Lessons of Cyberlaw. California Law Review, 103(3), 513–563.

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1：Massive Job Displacement

Acemoglu & Restrepo (2020): Empirical evidence from U.S. labor markets shows that each additional robot per thousand workers reduces employment and lowers wages, confirming large-scale displacement risks.

Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2020). Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets. Journal of political economy, 128(6), 2188-2244

West (2015): Argues that without adequate policy responses, robotics could severely disrupt labor markets, creating unemployment challenges beyond past industrial shifts.

West, D. M. (2015). What happens if robots take the jobs? The impact of emerging technologies on employment and public policy. Centre for Technology Innovation at Brookings, Washington DC.

2：Widening Wealth Gaps

Jia, Yan & Yu (2024): Finds that rising robot density exacerbates wealth inequality, particularly in developing economies, as capital owners benefit disproportionately.

Jia, N., Yan, X., & Yu, S. (2024). Does increasing robot density exacerbate wealth inequality?. Journal of Asian Economics, 95, 101830.

Gomes, Jansson & Karabulut (2024): Demonstrates that robotics adoption increases wealth dispersion, with gains concentrated among high-wealth households and technology investors.

Gomes, F., Jansson, T., & Karabulut, Y. (2024). Do robots increase wealth dispersion?. The Review of Financial Studies, 37(1), 119-160.