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As uncertainty persists in tipping points models will AI and satellite Ocean Colour help address this?

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As uncertainty persists in tipping points models will AI and satellite Ocean Colour help address this?

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How many simulation years in total did you get to count?

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How many simulation years in total did you get to count?

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Will AerChemMIP request the MODIS cloud fraction histogram diagnostics that can be used to separate the components of aerosol forcing? 

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Will AerChemMIP request the MODIS cloud fraction histogram diagnostics that can be used to separate the components of aerosol forcing? 

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In response to the question on whether MODIS cloud fraction histogram diagnostics are included in the data request, as far as I can tell, the answer is no. Please also refer to the data request paper for the Atmosphere theme: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3189/

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A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models

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Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are a leading source of uncertainty in estimates of the historical effective radiative forcing (ERF). One reason for this uncertainty is the difficulty in estimating the ERF from aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) in climate models, which typically requires multiple calls to the radiation code. Most commonly used methods also cannot disentangle the contributions from different processes to ERFaci. Here, we develop a new, computationally efficient method for estimating the shortwave (SW) ERFaci from liquid clouds using histograms of monthly averaged cloud fraction partitioned by cloud droplet effective radius (re) and liquid water path (LWP). Multiplying the histograms with SW cloud radiative kernels gives the total SW ERFaci from liquid clouds, which can be decomposed into contributions from the Twomey effect, LWP adjustments, and cloud fraction (CF) adjustments. We test the method with data from five CMIP6-era models, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument simulator to generate the histograms. Our method gives similar total SW ERFaci estimates to other established methods in regions of prevalent liquid cloud and indicates that the Twomey effect, LWP adjustments, and CF adjustments have contributed −0.34 ± 0.23, −0.22 ± 0.13, and −0.09 ± 0.11 W m−2, respectively, to the effective radiative forcing of the climate since 1850 in the ensemble mean (95 % confidence). These results demonstrate that widespread adoption of a MODIS re–LWP joint histogram diagnostic would allow the SW ERFaci and its components to be quickly and accurately diagnosed from climate model outputs, a crucial step for reducing uncertainty in the historical ERF.

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Will any AerChemMIP2 runs be done with the same model codes used in CMIP6 or the same forcings used in the AerChemMIP1 experiments? I'm wondering how we deconvolute the model changes versus forcing changes in the documented responses

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Will any AerChemMIP2 runs be done with the same model codes used in CMIP6 or the same forcings used in the AerChemMIP1 experiments? I'm wondering how we deconvolute the model changes versus forcing changes in the documented responses

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Separating the influence of forcing updates vs. model updates is not planned in the framework of AerChemMIP2. It is a topic that the  CMIP Climate forcings task team is concerned with. Feel free to follow up offline for more information.

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 Some CMIP ESMs will not carry all the variables you mentioned, like say Fe of P. Are these essential or optional?

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 Some CMIP ESMs will not carry all the variables you mentioned, like say Fe of P. Are these essential or optional?

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Iron and phosphorus are optional for FishMIP, but they are in the baseline group. Do not need all the variables in that group to meet the requirements. If you would like to know specifically what we need and what we don't, I can provide that. Hoping more models will provide details in CMIP7!

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The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP7

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Abstract. Cloud processes constitute one of the key uncertainties for climate change projections. The fourth iteration of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project, CFMIP4, contributes to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), by providing a set of global climate model experiments aiming to enhance our understanding of clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity, thereby informing improved projections of future climate change. CFMIP4 targets four knowledge gaps: (1) Physical mechanisms of cloud feedback and adjustment; (2) Dependence of cloud feedback and adjustment on climate base state and on the nature of the forcing; (3) Coupled mechanisms of the sea-surface temperature “pattern effect”; and (4) Coupling of clouds with circulation and precipitation. CFMIP4 contributes four CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track experiments that are central to the quantification of climate feedback and sensitivity in past, present and future climates, essential for process understanding and model evaluation. Furthermore, CFMIP4 supports the joint analysis of models and observations through a data request that includes process and satellite simulator output.

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AerChemMIP2 protocol paper in discussion

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AerChemMIP2 protocol paper in discussion

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https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5669/

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The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project phase two (AerChemMIP2) allows the community to compare results from contemporary Earth system models. AerChemMIP2 is asking modelling centres to perform experiments following the same protocol. It includes experiments for enabling new science and for tracking progress. Model output will be used for addressing research and policy questions about anthropogenic and natural drivers of climate change, and the impacts on air quality.

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AerChemMIP2 - Unraveling the role of reactive gases, aerosol particles, and land use for air quality and climate change in CMIP7

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Abstract. Phase 2 of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP2) is a registered model intercomparison project (MIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7). The focus of AerChemMIP2 is the quantification of the atmospheric composition, biogeochemical feedbacks, air quality and climate responses to changes in emissions of chemically reactive gases, aerosol particles, and land use.

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Data request paper for the Atmosphere including AerChemMIP2 

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Data request paper for the Atmosphere including AerChemMIP2 

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This manuscript defines as a list of variables and scientific opportunities which are requested from the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track to address open atmospheric science questions. The list reflects the output of a large public community engagement effort, coordinated across autumn 2025 through to summer 2025.

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CMIP7 Data Request: Atmosphere Priorities and Opportunities

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Abstract. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data unlocking key research avenues in atmospheric science and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data.

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News will be distributed via the AerChemMIP2 mailing list

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News will be distributed via the AerChemMIP2 mailing list

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To subscribe, please send an empty email to: AERCHEMMIP2-subscribe-request@listserv.uni-heidelberg.de

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To help us plan AerChemMIP2 analysis, we kindly invite you to participate in our survey by 31 March 2026

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To help us plan AerChemMIP2 analysis, we kindly invite you to participate in our survey by 31 March 2026

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I would like to have more detail on DAMIP spatially the counterfactual data, how they are processed. 

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I would like to have more detail on DAMIP spatially the counterfactual data, how they are processed. 

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Do you have any priority order for other (non-Fast Track) experiments?

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Do you have any priority order for other (non-Fast Track) experiments?

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In the Data Request, what does subhour mean?

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In the Data Request, what does subhour mean?

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On hist-pi-aer, RAMIP has also been talking with AerChemMIP on this one. Our modellers are interested in it, so we could maybe contriubte

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On hist-pi-aer, RAMIP has also been talking with AerChemMIP on this one. Our modellers are interested in it, so we could maybe contriubte

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From a carbon cycle perspective - real world is emissions driven. We have been 'faking' the system by doing concentration driven runs for a long time, so it makes sense to prioritise emissions driven mode. I know you have those as tier 2 experiments, but I hope modelling centres contribute these. Adds a different perspective to attribution. 

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From a carbon cycle perspective - real world is emissions driven. We have been 'faking' the system by doing concentration driven runs for a long time, so it makes sense to prioritise emissions driven mode. I know you have those as tier 2 experiments, but I hope modelling centres contribute these. Adds a different perspective to attribution. 

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With the extensions being tier 2/3, are you hoping that the historical forcings will be updated more regularly, then you can extend the historical runs?

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With the extensions being tier 2/3, are you hoping that the historical forcings will be updated more regularly, then you can extend the historical runs?

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Why are those locations are determined for the MCB.  Looks mid lattitude not sub-tropical, why that selection?

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Why are those locations are determined for the MCB.  Looks mid lattitude not sub-tropical, why that selection?

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Lots of work to identify regions and sub/tropical regions are highly excited by MCB are response is much less uniform whereas mid latitude are much more uniform response.

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Response of Temp in Africa and E Asia is small compared to the other regions, any thoughts?

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Response of Temp in Africa and E Asia is small compared to the other regions, any thoughts?

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Looking into it, is atmospheric transport as where aerosols come in and hit ascending branch the response is quite muted. Also associated with the clouds, this is a cloud free region compared to others. Mostly a circulation effect, a dedicated experiment is coming up.

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With regard to the forcings, is the focus  emission driven simulation rather than concentration driven?

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With regard to the forcings, is the focus  emission driven simulation rather than concentration driven?

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All emissions, really is emission fields, transport, ageing in all models except one.

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That is a combination of transport of particles, possibly black carbon, and the colleague designing it loves dragons.

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Have you thought about doing a shipping emissions experiment imposing an IMO reduction?

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Have you thought about doing a shipping emissions experiment imposing an IMO reduction?

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We have considered and was completed for one model, CESM2, in Watson-Parris et al (2025) https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/4443/2025/

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Emmons, L. K., Schwantes, R. H., Orlando, J. J., Tyndall, G., Kinnison, D., Lamarque, J., Marsh, D., Mills, M. J., Tilmes, S., Bardeen, C., Buchholz, R. R., Conley, A., Gettelman, A., Garcia, R., Simpson, I., Blake, D. R., Meinardi, S., and Pétron, G.: The Chemistry Mechanism in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001882, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001882, 2020.

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Surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions are within internal variability

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Abstract. In 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented strict new regulations on the emissions of sulfate aerosol from the world's shipping fleet. This can be expected to lead to a reduction in aerosol-driven cooling, unmasking a portion of greenhouse gas warming.

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There seems to be a mismatch between the aerosol perturbation simulations in DAMIP and AerChemMIP(2). In DAMIP, NOx, CO and NMVOCs are included as aerosol precursors, whereas in AerChemMIP(2) they are not.

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The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7

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Abstract. The first version of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) coordinated key simulations exploring the role of individual forcings in past, current and future climate as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). The simulations have been used extensively in the literature for detection and attribution of long-term changes, constraining projections of climate change, attributing extreme events and understanding drivers of past and future simulated climate changes. Attribution studies using DAMIP v1.0 simulations underpinned prominent assessments of human-induced warming in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. Here, we describe the set of DAMIP v2.0 simulations, proposed for the next phase of CMIP, CMIP7. Detection and attribution studies rely on pre-industrial control simulations and historical simulations, which will be part of the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) set of simulations for CMIP7. In addition, we identify the three highest-priority single-forcing experiments for CMIP7 to be run as “Assessment Fast Track” simulations in support of the Seventh Assessment Report of the IPCC: simulations with natural forcings only, anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases only and anthropogenic aerosols only. Beyond this, the DAMIP v2.0 experimental design includes full-column ozone-only simulations and land-use-only simulations, such that the set of individual forcing experiments, when these are considered together, represents the full set of historical forcings. While concentration-driven simulations are prioritised for attribution, emissions-driven versions of the DAMIP experiments are also proposed to support understanding of the influence of carbon-cycle feedbacks on the simulated responses to individual forcings.

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Which Atmospheric forcing will be used to force the historical land-only (land-hist) simulation?

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Which Atmospheric forcing will be used to force the historical land-only (land-hist) simulation?

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What is the progress on the predicting skill in case of Low likelihood high impact events in HighresMIP? What could be some feasible and solid starting points to get started for someone wanting to pursue research in this direction?

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What is the progress on the predicting skill in case of Low likelihood high impact events in HighresMIP? What could be some feasible and solid starting points to get started for someone wanting to pursue research in this direction?

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@david  and kim, the land is being used to store CO2 ,do you have specifications of the land which has to store the co2?and for how long will be stored?

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@david  and kim, the land is being used to store CO2 ,do you have specifications of the land which has to store the co2?and for how long will be stored?

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 What assumptions do you suggest to get low emission by 2100?

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 What assumptions do you suggest to get low emission by 2100?

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Why is land-amip included in the protocol? is it still land-only (if yes AMIP is confusing)? If land-amip is still off-line land-only, why is it distinguished from land-hist then?

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How will the forcing for the high-resolution land-only simulations be prepared?

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You mentioned about the objective of LMIP to assess also predictability in the intro; how do you plan to do this in land-only simulations? shall we include AMIP (real atmosphere-land simulations with prescribed SSTs; both historical and future) as tier-2 in the protocol to cover that? maybe good timing now to discuss about this opportunity...

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Dave, while we try to keep our model parameters the same in coupled and offline simulation, it's not always possible. How bad is this? Vivek

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Is there a Coupled Land Use History run?

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 For the land-hist, is there any requirement on the number of initial-condition ensemble members? 

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 For the land-hist, is there any requirement on the number of initial-condition ensemble members? 

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Fixed land surface temperature experiments

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Fixed land surface temperature experiments

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Is the Zhang et al study shown on your slides published?

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How are the aerosol perturbation experiments defined in RFMIP? Assuming aerosols are interactive, should both aerosol and ozone precursors be perturbed (like in DAMIP) or only the aerosol precursors (like in AerChemMIP)?

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We are happy to have feedback to our experimental design! Please follow this link to share your impressions: 

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We are happy to have feedback to our experimental design! Please follow this link to share your impressions: 

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i would like to know if the role of global ocean circulation have been considered into consideration during the Glacier models as we know it carries Temperatures which affects the thickness of glacier?

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i want to understand how the irrigation models can help to cool down global/regional warming while you didn't consider wind (speed)parameter of the study areas?

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You have considered fire -biomass burning-land model and Fire-aerosol-atmospheric model, what could happen if you also considered : Fire-volcanic -ocean model? because it is proven that geological activities "volcanic activities are happening in the ocean and are causing changes into ocean-land-atmospheric relationship.

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Where can we ask questions about the ESM variables that are requested for ISMIP7?

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Do you look at historical irrigation only? Projections would be very useful as well if possible

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Do you look at historical irrigation only? Projections would be very useful as well if possible

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Adding and removing the CO2 from a non-steady state - what are you hoping to achieve with these?