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How has the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected the world economically?

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How has the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected the world economically?

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This article is about how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected the world economy by causing global prices to soar, especially for oil and natural gas. Food costs have jumped, with wheat, for which Ukraine and Russia make up 30 percent of global exports, reaching a record. This article also shows graphs of how pricing is soaring up.

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How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World's Regions

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The conflict is a major blow to the global economy that will hurt growth and raise prices. Beyond the suffering and humanitarian crisis from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the entire global economy will feel the effects of slower growth and faster inflation. Impacts will flow through three main channels.

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How are kids impacted during the Ukraine War

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How are kids impacted during the Ukraine War

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There are relentless reports in Europe of children being killed, injured, orphaned, and traumatized by the attacks on civilians in Ukraine. Many children and families are forced to seek shelter in cold basements, which leaves them without basic needs. Millions of children have been displaced, as well as many of them being separated from their loved ones. There's been increased humanitarian assistance for the Ukrainian population, children fleeing the war should also be protected from human trafficking, exploitation, and sexual violence wherever they are.

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Copyright Ed Ram / GETTY IMAGES EUROPE / Getty Images via AFP

"The war in Ukraine has been devastating for children. Council of Europe member states should redouble their efforts to protect and support the children who are suffering as a result of Russia's brutal war in Ukraine", said the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, Dunja Mijatović, ahead of World Children's Day 2022.

"Since 24 February, we have received relentless reports in Europe of children being killed, injured, orphaned, and traumatised by indiscriminate or targeted attacks on civilians in Ukraine. Shelling by Russia continues to force children and their families to seek shelter in cold basements, leaving many of them without access to their most basic needs, including food, water, electricity, healthcare, and education. Millions of children have been displaced, and many have been separated from their loved ones. I call on all Council of Europe member states to make addressing the plight of all children victims of this war their top priority. This includes increased humanitarian assistance for the Ukrainian population ahead of and throughout this winter. It also means sustained, longer-term provision of dignified housing, healthcare, education and other basic needs of the children and their families for whom it may be too early yet to return home safely. Children fleeing the war should also be protected from human trafficking, exploitation, and sexual violence wherever they are.

This year we are also witnessing a new and particularly appalling effect of war on children in Europe: forcible transfers of Ukrainian children to Russia, away from their families and caregivers, as reported and documented by multiple sources. Following a legislative change to facilitate the granting of Russian citizenship to Ukrainian children, some of them have been adopted in Russia in what appears as a deliberate exploitation of these children's vulnerability. I recall UNICEF 's guidance that children separated from their parents during a humanitarian emergency cannot be presumed orphans and are not available for adoption. For this reason, adoption should not occur during or immediately after emergencies.

The forcible transfer of protected persons from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power is prohibited under Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention. I have stressed before that Article 50 of that same Convention also prohibits the changing of children's personal status, including nationality, by an occupying force.

The widespread and systematic violations of the human rights of children in the context of the war in Ukraine, including through deliberate actions that may qualify as war crimes and crimes against humanity, must be stopped and those responsible must be held fully accountable. Council of Europe member states should support every effort directed at locating and reunifying all Ukrainian children who have been separated from their families or established caregivers, in full consideration of the child's best interests."

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Protecting and supporting children impacted by the war in Ukraine must be top priority

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Strasbourg Diminuer la taille du texte Augmenter la taille du texte Imprimer la page Imprimer en PDF Copyright Ed Ram / GETTY IMAGES EUROPE / Getty Images via AFP "The war in Ukraine has been devastating for children.

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What countries, if any, are on Russia's side?

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What countries, if any, are on Russia's side?

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Although Ukraine is not a part of NATO, many of the NATO countries support Ukraine. Russia on the other hand, is not liked by NATO, but still has some countries that support Putin, Russia's leader. The countries that support him are, Belarus, China, Syria, India, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, and Pakistan.

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Which countries are supporting Russia during its invasion of Ukraine? Some include Belarus and Syria. Other countries like China haven't issued a clear stance. Ukrainian Police Department Press Service via AP

Russia's ongoing attack of neighboring Ukraine has drawn international condemnation from world leaders - even from some of its political allies in Europe such as the leaders of Hungary and the Czech Republic.

"Russia has committed a crime against peace," Czech President Milos Zeman said in an address, according to the Associated Press. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on three fronts early Thursday, Feb. 24, and has attacked its capital Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who reportedly remains in the country to fight, called the invasion a "declaration of war against the whole of Europe."

Although Ukraine isn't a member of NATO, its 30 member countries, including 28 in Europe and the U.S. and Canada, have expressed full support for Ukraine.

"Russia has shattered peace in Europe," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said during a Feb. 25 news conference, adding that NATO is calling on Russia "to stop this senseless war."

But what are countries known to be friendly with Russia saying about the invasion?

Belarus

"The world will hold Russia and Belarus accountable for their actions," Stoltenberg said on Feb. 25. "Russia as the aggressor. Belarus as the enabler."

Belarus borders both Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe and was once a part of the Soviet Union until it established independence in 1991, just like Ukraine, according to Encyclopedia Britannica.

The country has expressed its support for Russia's invasion of its shared neighbor and some Russian troops have entered Ukraine through Belarus, according to The Associated Press.

Belarus' leader Alexander Lukashenko has "committed treason," Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a Belarusian human rights leader and politician who was a presidential candidate for the country in 2020, said Feb. 26 on Twitter.

Lukashenko had previously left open the possibility of his own country's troops taking part in the invasion if needed.

"He made our country a participant in the invasion of Ukraine," Tsikhanouskaya wrote, announcing herself "the national leader of Belarus to protect the sovereignty & independence of (the) country."

China

China is allied economically with Russia but has stayed silent on issuing support or condemnation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. However, it's criticized sanctions that Europe and the U.S. have levied against Russia over the conflict.

"The US has imposed sanctions on Russia for more than 100 times since 2011," China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said during a Feb. 25 news conference.

"Facts show that sanctions are never the fundamental or effective way to solve problems."

When asked by AFP if China considers Russia's actions to be an invasion, Wang said "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and upheld."

"At the same time, we recognize that the Ukraine issue has a complex and special historical context and understand Russia's legitimate concerns on security issues."

Ultimately, Wang said China calls on "all parties to exercise restraint and prevent further escalation of the situation."

Syria

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad spoke with Putin over the phone on Feb. 25 and expressed "strong support for Russia's special military operation," the Russian Embassy in Sri Lanka wrote Feb. 25 on Twitter.

Al-Assad told Putin that Russia's invasion is a " correction of history and restoration of balance which was lost in the world after the breakup of the Soviet Union," according to Al Jazeera.

He also condemned the U.S. and NATO's stance on the conflict when speaking to Putin, according to the Russian Embassy.

India

India had been historically allied with Russia under the era of the Soviet Union, according to the Associated Press.

Similarly to China, India hasn't expressed outright support or condemnation of Russia's invasion.

India's Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi spoke with Putin over the phone on Feb. 24 regarding Ukraine and "reiterated his long-standing conviction that the differences between Russia and the NATO group can only be resolved through honest and sincere dialogue," a news release said.

Modi "appealed for an immediate cessation of violence, and called for concerted efforts from all sides to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations and dialogue."

The prime minister also expressed concern over "the safety of the Indian citizens in Ukraine, especially students."

Cuba

Cuba has expressed general support for Russia before the invasion began in a Feb. 23 statement and said the U.S. "has been threatening Russia for weeks and manipulating the international community about the dangers of an 'imminent massive invasion' of Ukraine."

The country's minister of foreign affairs, Bruno Rodríguez, said that Russia "has the right to defend itself."

He added that the country "advocates a diplomatic solution through constructive and respectful dialogue."

However, Cuba didn't directly say it supported Russia's invasion, as noted by the Miami Herald.

Venezuela

Russian ally Venezuela in South America condemned the actions of the U.S. and NATO, arguing they heightened tensions with their actions without laying blame on Russia, Reuters reported.

"The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela expresses its worry over the worsening of the crisis in Ukraine, and laments the mockery and violation of the Minsk accords on the part of NATO, encouraged by the United States of America," Venezuela's foreign ministry said on Feb. 24, according to the outlet.

"The derailment of these (Minsk) accords has violated international law and created strong threats against the Russian Federation, its territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as impeded good relations between neighboring countries."

President Joe Biden, however, has adamantly called the Russian invasion "unprovoked and unjustified."

Iran

Iran's Foreign Ministry blamed NATO for Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.

"The Ukraine crisis has its roots in NATO's provocative moves," the foreign ministry wrote.

"We believe resorting to war is not the solution. The establishment of a ceasefire and focusing on a political and democratic solution is a must," it added.

Iran and Russia are considered allies, according to the Times of Israel.

Pakistan

Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan met with Putin as the Russian invasion of Ukraine ensued, according to the prime minister's office.

However, their meeting was to discuss a wide range of issues, not particularly Ukraine.

Khan "regretted the latest situation between Russia and Ukraine and said that Pakistan had hoped diplomacy could avert a military conflict," according to a statement.

"The Prime Minister stressed that conflict was not in anyone's interest, and that the developing countries were always hit the hardest economically in case of conflict. He underlined Pakistan's belief that disputes should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy."

No other world leaders have physically met with Putin since Russia's attack on Ukraine, according to Al Jazeera.

This story was originally published February 26, 2022, 2:05 PM.

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Do countries friendly to Russia support its Ukraine invasion? What 8 of them have said

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Russia's ongoing attack of neighboring Ukraine has drawn international condemnation from world leaders - even from some of its political allies in Europe such as the leaders of Hungary and the Czech Republic. "Russia has committed a crime against peace," Czech President Milos Zeman said in an address, according to the Associated Press.

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At least 136 civilians have died in the conflict.

At least 677,243 people have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries since Russian forces invaded the eastern European country on Feb. 24, according to the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR.

The majority of refugees have escaped to Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania and Slovakia. However, many other unidentified Ukrainians continue to flee across Europe, the UN agency said.

At the Polish border, UNHCR staff reported lines that were miles long. In Romania, people were waiting up to 20 hours to enter, according to agency staff.

The 37-mile trek from the Ukraine city of Odessa to the border of Moldova took some refugees 24 hours to make, the agency said.

In Hungary, arrivals were "steady and waiting times vary."

Ukrainian citizens have also been displaced within the country, according to Filippo Grandi, the UNHCR commissioner, but it is unknown how many at this time. He also said there is a "growing number of unaccompanied and separated children."

More than 470,000 non-Ukrainian people, "including a large number of overseas students and labor migrants," remain in the country as well, according to the International Organization for Migration.

In what Russian President Vladimir Putin calls a "special military operation," Russian forces continue to try and push through Ukraine, as Ukrainian forces hold steady in the fight.

So far, at least 536 civilian casualties have been recorded in the conflict, 136 of whom have been killed, according to the U.N.

Many reasons have been cited as Putin's reasoning for the attacks, including the threat of Ukraine's membership in NATO, the western military alliance. But Putin has also tried to question Ukraine's legitimacy as a country and claimed that the country needed to be liberated from Nazis.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to remain in Kyiv and fight against Russian forces.

"We are all here. Our military are here, as are our people and whole society," Zelenskyy said in a video posted to Facebook. "We're all here defending our independence and our country. And we'll go on doing that. Glory to our defenders! Glory to Ukraine."

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Map: Where Ukrainian refugees are heading

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At least 136 civilians have died in the conflict. At least 677,243 people have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries since Russian forces invaded the eastern European country on Feb. 24, according to the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR. The majority of refugees have escaped to Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Romania and Slovakia.

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With the increasing conflict, it could escalate and involve others into it. Ukrainian allies (like EU countries), provides materials and supplies, but no countries have offered to send troops, for right reasons. But that doesn't mean the United States and other NATO allies can't be drawn into the war and result in the start of World War III. An analyst says, "Anything that we do that results in killing Russians puts us into World War III.", which is unfortunate but true.

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Press play to listen to this article

CHIȘINĂU, Moldova - So far, it is still Russia's war against Ukraine. But World War III has never been closer.

As Russian forces pummel Kyiv and other cities, Western powers have maneuvered extremely carefully to avoid direct conflict with President Vladimir Putin, the man who controls the world's largest nuclear arsenal and has shown no qualms in boasting about it.

Ukraine's Western allies are supplying weapons and other materiel, but have ruled out the idea of imposing a no-fly zone. EU countries are providing air defense systems, but have balked at Ukraine's request for fighter jets. No country has offered to send troops.

And yet, senior Western government officials, diplomats and military analysts acknowledge that there is now a grave danger that the United States and other NATO allies could be drawn into the war - at virtually any moment, as the result of any number of scenarios.

"One is a mistake," said a Washington-based analyst whose work is partly financed by the U.S. government. "They lob a missile into Poland. That is not impossible and then it very quickly escalates. But we have to respond. We can't not respond."

"Or the outcry against the crimes against humanity is so strong that we feel compelled to take what we think is a limited and judicious action," the analyst said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.

"The enforcement of a no-fly zone means killing Russians," the analyst said. "Anything that we do that results in killing Russians puts us into World War III."

The shelling and a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the early hours of Friday morning provided yet another frightening example of the type of emergency scenario that could ensnare a broader international coalition in Putin's war: to urgently prevent a global catastrophe.

But other more mundane scenarios abound. Already, on Wednesday Russian planes violated Swedish air space multiple times. An Estonian cargo ship sunk off the coast of Odesa, apparently after hitting a mine. Any such incident could easily escalate.

U.S. President Joe Biden has been adamant about American forces not getting involved in the fighting. In his State of the Union speech this week, Biden described the war as Ukraine's fight and said Washington would do what it could to help.

"We'll continue to aid the Ukrainian people as they defend their country and help ease their suffering," he said. "But let me be clear: Our forces are not engaged and will not engage in the conflict with Russian forces in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight [in] Ukraine but to defend our NATO allies in the event that Putin decides to keep moving west."

One European official privy to intelligence briefings provided to U.S. allies said analysts in Washington had reached a terrifying conclusion: "Russia is ready to use a thermonuclear bomb in Ukraine," the official said.

The official said the war in Ukraine was far more dangerous than anything Europe has seen since the end of World War II, including the Balkan wars of the 1990s.

"As horrible as that was," the official said, "this is worse, with the potential of getting a real European war, or a world war very quickly. This is just getting deeper and deeper, every day."

On Friday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated the alliance's wish to avoid conflict and unwillingness to impose a no-fly zone. "The only way to implement a no-fly zone is to send NATO planes - fighter planes - into Ukrainian airspace, and then impose that no-fly zone by shooting down Russian planes," Stoltenberg said following a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels. "If we did that, we'll end up with something that could end in a full-fledged war in Europe involving many more countries and causing much more human suffering."

On a visit to Chişinău, the Moldovan capital which has been swamped by Ukrainian refugees, the EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said he recognized the whole world has a stake in what's happening in Ukraine.

"Today the problem is not only Donbas, the problem is not only Ukraine - what is at stake is the stability in Europe and the whole international order," he said.

But asked if he would back a no-fly zone enforced by NATO allies, 21 of whom are EU members, Borrell said that was not a decision for him or the EU to take.

Proxy war

Officials and diplomats who are experts on Russia say the effort to portray the conflict as Ukraine's war misses the key point: Putin has attacked Ukraine precisely because it chose a path toward the EU and NATO. Fighting Ukraine, they say, is a proxy for fighting the West.

Some believe the conflict can only be resolved if Putin's complaints about the U.S. and NATO are resolved. Until then, he will continue the war, seeking to conquer or destroy the country, and making the peace negotiations with Ukrainian officials of little significance.

In other words, the West will end up even more directly involved, politically and perhaps militarily, than it is already. The precise nature of that greater role is a matter of debate but many believe it is coming, one way or another - and some argue that the sooner it happens, the quicker the war will end. That calculation, of course, presumes Putin choose self-preservation over nuclear Armageddon.

But all signs suggest the situation in Ukraine will get far worse in the coming days, a point French President Emmanuel Macron warned about on Thursday.

As Putin realizes that fury among the Ukrainian population means he will lose politically, no matter the military outcome, there is a heightened risk he will simply seek to destroy Ukraine, flattening its cities and towns just as Russian forces obliterated the Chechen capital of Grozny.

And the devastating barrage of severe sanctions that are punishing the Russian economy will almost certainly remain in place, giving Putin little incentive to back away from his goal of conquering Ukraine and toppling its government. Putin chose war fully knowing there would be severe economic consequences - a calculation he made previously with the invasion and annexation of Crimea, which led to sanctions and steep absorption costs.

One senior EU official said that Ukrainians would pay a terrible price as a result of the West insisting it is not in the fight, and delaying its direct involvement. "They will try to pretend for a while longer, and many more Ukrainians will have to die," the senior official said, adding that there was a need for the West to recognize that it was Putin's primary target.

"Even if they would [impose] the damn no-fly zone, that wouldn't change the dynamics," the senior official added. "It's still taken as somebody else's war."

A second senior EU official said that EU member countries had taken care to be sure that the weapons and other aid they are supplying to Ukraine were in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, regarding a country's right to self-defense, and that it should not be seen in any way by Moscow or anyone else as EU states directly entering the conflict with Russia.

"The Union is not at war with Russia," the second official said. "We are in line with the U.N. Charter." The second official added: "But we need to help Ukraine because Ukraine is being attacked and has the right to self-defense."

Molly McKew, an independent security analyst based in Washington who publishes a newsletter called Great Power, said by denying their centrality in the dispute, Western powers were failing to seize on an opportunity to unite the three Slavic nations that Putin often talks about - Ukraine, Russia and Belarus - but against the Russian autocrat, in support of democracy.

"It's like we're not understanding that we're a participant in this war already - not because we put ourselves there, not because we were looking for this war, not because of any decision that NATO made or any individual bilateral partners of Ukraine made, but because Vladimir Putin is fighting a war against us," McKew said. "And if we show up to the war, it will end sooner and faster with less people dead, and that's really the decision we have to make now."

She said that there was a chance Putin would decide to broaden the conflict even as Western countries continued to try to walk a legal tightrope. "I think right now there's extremely cautious legal microanalysis happening - Is a fighter jet too much? Is that NATO participating in a war? Is the drones too much? Is that NATO arming Ukraine in the war? - You know what? Vladimir Putin doesn't care about your 40-page legal microanalysis that you just sent to the National Security Council."

Putin's 'Gaddafi mindset'

Increasing talk about the need to kill or depose Putin could also transform the fight in Ukraine into a world war, experts say, as the Russian leader concludes that he is not only engaged in regime preservation but literally in self-preservation.

Many Western officials and diplomats aren't whispering these days when they express hopes that a Russian oligarch or someone else close to Putin will kill him. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham on Thursday publicly suggested Putin should be assassinated, saying: "Is there a Brutus in Russia? Is there a more successful Colonel Stauffenberg in the Russian military?" Graham was referring in the first instance to the Roman politician who was among the assassins of Julius Caesar, and in the second to the German army officer who failed to assassinate Adolf Hitler.

Putin is known to harbor deep anger over the death of the Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, who was taken prisoner, humiliated, beaten and killed while begging his captors for mercy. The scenes were filmed on a mobile phone.

The Washington-based analyst said the Russian president would go to any lengths to avoid Gaddafi's fate, and that suggestions Putin should be tried as a war criminal could trigger him.

"Even scarier" than other scenarios that would draw NATO into the conflict "is the talk about trying him before the International Criminal Court," the analyst said. "That's kind of Gaddafi territory. You have to be real careful about putting a dictator who still has his finger on a nuclear button in a Gaddafi mindset."

Overall, the analyst said, Western officials including Biden were not recognizing the acute danger of a world war. "Everybody is doing what they have done all along, except something fundamental has changed," the analyst said.

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The fighting is in Ukraine, but risk of World War III is real

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Press play to listen to this article CHIȘINĂU, Moldova - So far, it is still Russia's war against Ukraine. But World War III has never been closer. As Russian forces pummel Kyiv and other cities, Western powers have maneuvered extremely carefully to avoid direct conflict with President Vladimir Putin, the man who controls the world's largest nuclear arsenal and has shown no qualms in boasting about it.

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Is it true that all Ukrainian men had to get drafted into the war?

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Is it true that all Ukrainian men had to get drafted into the war?

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Yes, every man in Ukraine has to stay and fight. From the age 18-60 they have barred them from leaving the country. If they ask to flee with their families they will be denied. Regardless of their training for fit for the military they are forced to stay and fight.

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After Russia's invasion, Ukraine announced martial law in February and issued a travel ban, so most men couldn't leave the country. Many have since felt trapped and worry they'll be drafted to fight.

MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

Ukraine has always had military conscription. It's a legacy of the Soviet Union. But until Russia invaded Ukraine this year, some men could defer military service. Now a travel ban on men between the ages of 18 and 60 has people who never wanted to enlist or who might have gotten deferments feeling trapped and afraid. NPR's Ashley Westerman has more.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: (Non-English language spoken).

ASHLEY WESTERMAN, BYLINE: A quick trip to Kyiv's main train station shows the spectrum of opinions about mandatory military service to fight this Russian invasion. Ivan Kovichinski was out front, waiting to pick up a friend who's been serving in the East. I asked him if he supported conscription.

IVAN KOVICHINSKI: (Non-English language spoken).

WESTERMAN: "It's war," he says. "If you don't want to go, too bad. It's war." A few feet away, Anastasia Petrova says conscription is probably necessary.

ANASTASIA PETROVA: We have to be prepared to, you know, be the country like Israel, where even women are ready to serve, because, you know, like, we have a neighbor who's insane, so we kind of all have to be ready.

WESTERMAN: But Maxim Ponomarenko, who says he has several friends who have been recently drafted, disagrees.

MAXIM PONOMARENKO: No, I don't think is that the forcing of prescription is the right thing. I believe it has to be voluntary.

WESTERMAN: Not only is conscription not voluntary, the exceptions have been suspended under martial law and a travel ban put in place that prevents most men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country, effectively trapping them inside Ukraine. Charli Carpenter is the head of the Human Security Lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, which recently surveyed thousands of Ukrainians about the travel ban. A majority said they do not support requiring men to stay.

CHARLI CARPENTER: They gave a variety of reasons, some of them ethical - human-rights based - and some of them very practical.

WESTERMAN: Like that some men could better support the war effort working abroad and sending money home or that many wouldn't make good soldiers because they aren't trained properly or do not wish to fight, she says. And she says closing the country's borders for men could have some human rights ramifications.

CARPENTER: There's a human rights law that says everybody has the right to leave their country and return to it if they want. And that is a rule in treaty law that can be suspended in time of national emergency, but only when it's strictly necessary, which it's hard to argue this is.

WESTERMAN: When the travel ban was announced by the Ukrainian border service, experts saw it as a move by Kyiv to bolster the Ukrainian resistance.

ROMAN GORBACH: (Non-English language spoken).

WESTERMAN: Colonel Roman Gorbach is the head of personnel for Ukraine's ground forces. He says so far they've primarily called up men with current military contracts, previous combat experience or relevant training. And while he wouldn't talk numbers, the colonel says less than 10% of conscripts who have been called up have been immediately sent to fight and that rumors that men are being randomly picked up off the street and drafted are lies. Regardless of what the government is saying, Anton Waschuk with the Western NIS Enterprise Fund says a good portion of Ukrainian men would still rather leave the country than fight now or later. He says how the war resolves itself will dictate how many people end up leaving.

ANTON WASCHUK: So if there is a good peace deal, then a large proportion of Ukrainians will remain within Ukraine. If there is a further negative outcome, whether that's, you know, further loss of territory or the loss of job opportunities, we can expect anywhere up to 50% of the current population to uproot itself.

WESTERMAN: Ashley Westerman, NPR News, Kyiv.

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Ukrainians express worries over conscription following Russia's invasion

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After Russia's invasion, Ukraine announced martial law in February and issued a travel ban, so most men couldn't leave the country. Many have since felt trapped and worry they'll be drafted to fight. MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST: Ukraine has always had military conscription. It's a legacy of the Soviet Union.

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This article talks about the damages and money that was spend on the Russian Ukraine war. According to Kiel, the U.S. has transferred military and non-military aid worth $54.43 billion to the government of Ukraine. Republican members of Congress are calling for a forensic examination of US military and non-military aid. The pleas for transparency come as President Joe Biden's administration has requested the United States Congress for an additional $37 billion to fund the war in Ukraine. The aid includes not only cash transfers but also loans, military equipment, and humanitarian supplies?

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Several Republican Members of Congress are escalating calls for a forensic audit of U.S. military and non-military aid to Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February. Those calls for transparency come as President Joe Biden's White House just asked the U.S. Congress for another $37 billion for the war in Ukraine. But is an audit of all that aid, which includes not just cash transfers but loans, military equipment, and humanitarian supplies, even possible?

To begin with, we need to answer a simpler question: how much money has the U.S. government sent to Ukraine?

Try Googling the question to find an answer. The search isn't likely to be an easy one, as I discovered. There's no media outlet keeping an ongoing tally of the cost of the Ukraine war to American taxpayers, and obviously there's no government website doing so. Even conservative American think tanks, many of them stuck in Cold War mentalities, haven't focused on financial transparency as they analyze U.S. involvement in the conflict. A factor that complicates the answer is the discrepancy between total aid appropriated and committed versus aid that has actually been delivered. The Biden administration has not been lightning fast in turning appropriations into actual aid, so there are significant differences between the two numbers.

The Congressional Research Service, the non-partisan in-house think tank for Congress, produced a report on total "security assistance" as of Oct. 21, 2022. Funding in that category, from 2014 to Oct. 14, 2022, was $20.3 billion. But this points up another complicating factor. Different sources measure buckets of aid differently: some will talk about security assistance, some talk of military assistance, some talk of humanitarian aid. Few offer a clear cut, "This is the total cost of all U.S. support for the war in Ukraine."

Eventually I tracked down a database operated by the Kiel Institute, a German think tank. They have been tracking total military and non-military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict. Their numbers include all aid from Jan. 24, 2022 to Oct. 3, 2022 (the data is scheduled for an update on Dec. 6).

According to Kiel, the U.S. has transferred military and non-military aid worth $54.43 billion to the government of Ukraine. The database Kiel has maintained is by far the most granular and detailed accounting of what the U.S. government has provided to Ukraine, including descriptions of the individual batches of military equipment. If you're interested, you can check it out here.

It's unfortunate that an American journalist must rely on a German think tank for get this information. It's also unfortunate that Kiel had to copiously piece together this information from various statements made by the Department of Defense, the White House, and the Secretary of State. Because of that, the data is only as accurate as the American federal government's statements to the media.

Kiel's estimated $54.43 billion plus the White House's new request for $37 billion would bring the total cost of U.S. involvement in Ukraine to $91,430,000,000.

Let's put $91.43 billion into context: the European Union member countries and institutions have provided $30.45 billion to Ukraine, per Kiel. The Jamestown Foundation estimates the Russias most recent annual defense spending was $77.7 billion. In 2021, the Gross Domestic Product of the state of Maine was $77.9 billion. And, of course, all of this is meaningless without noting that the total U.S. federal debt currently sits at $31.3 trillion.

As for the calls to audit all of that spending, it's a noble goal. But much of that aid is physical aid - guns and butter - which has likely been consumed or expended. I rather doubt the Ukrainian government is tracking all of this. Why, in a time or crisis with no expectations from the U.S., would they bother tracking it? The cash assistance may be a different story, perhaps there is a paper trail. But even then: We're talking about billions of dollars funneled into one of the most corrupt countries in Europe. How much can you trust a paper trail? The truth is that money is gone, and no American politician will ever suffer the consequences or be held accountable. Go Democracy!

Lastly, if you object to the headline calling the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe a proxy war, then you should take that up with people like former Counselor to Condaleeza Rice Eliot Cohen, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO Phillip Breedlove, among others. People close to the conflict all agree that what's happening is more than a fight over disputed border regions in Ukraine, and is in fact a proxy war between Russia and the U.S. Americans are being asked to foot the bill for an enormous transfer of arms and wealth to a country most couldn't even locate on a map a month ago. So it's a small request to ask that we at least accurately understand the conflict now underway.

GEN. MILLEY: "We, the United States, are determined to continue to support Ukraine with the means to defend themselves for as long as it takes." pic.twitter.com/TagvgJkG7v
- Breaking911 (@Breaking911) November 16, 2022

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How Much Money Has the U.S. Spent on the Russian Proxy War in Ukraine? - The Maine Wire

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Several Republican Members of Congress are escalating calls for a forensic audit of U.S. military and non-military aid to Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February. Those calls for transparency come as President Joe Biden's White House just asked the U.S. Congress for another $37 billion for the war in Ukraine.

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NATO won't let Ukraine join because they don't want to cause more fuse between them than there already is. There was talk about letting them join but Putin had to make sure they didn't join so he attacked. If Ukraine were part of NATO, the alliance would be obligated to defend the country against Russia. Instead of shutting them open, they have helped them by giving them any materials they need but Putin has threatened that if it continues, he will attack us, so instead, we have been giving them money. Though Ukraine is not a part of NATO Russia is and they have not supported the actions of Putin.

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Ukraine has pressed for membership to defend against Russia. But President Biden and European leaders are not ready for that step.

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Ukrainian troops took part in an exercise near Kyiv in December. If Ukraine were a NATO member, the alliance would be obligated to defend it against Russia and other adversaries. Credit... Sergei Supinsky/Agence France-Presse - Getty Images

WASHINGTON - As the Russian military decimates cities across Ukraine, kills thousands of civilians and displaces millions, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has acknowledged that his country will not be joining NATO anytime soon.

In his first speech to Congress, on Wednesday, Mr. Zelensky said the world needed "new institutions, new alliances" and called for "a union of responsible countries that have the strength and consciousness to stop conflicts immediately."

Even in January, a month before President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia began his full-scale invasion, tense talks among the United States, Russia and European members of NATO made one thing clear: While the Biden administration insists it will not allow Moscow to quash Ukraine's ambitions to join NATO, it has no immediate plans to help bring the former Soviet republic into the alliance. Mr. Putin's insistence that he needed to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO appeared to be a pretext for war, a stated rationale without substance.

If Ukraine were a NATO member, the alliance would be obligated to defend it against Russia and other adversaries. U.S. officials say they will not appease Mr. Putin by undermining a policy enshrined in NATO's original 1949 treaty that grants any European nation the right to ask to join.

"Together, the United States and our NATO allies made clear we will not slam the door shut on NATO's open door policy - a policy that has always been central to the NATO alliance," Wendy R. Sherman, the deputy secretary of state, said on Jan. 12.

But France and Germany have in the past opposed Ukraine's inclusion, and other European members are wary - a deal breaker for an alliance that grants membership only by unanimous consent. American and Russian leaders know this. As Russian troops continued to amass on Ukraine's eastern border in January, current and former American and European officials said Mr. Putin was raising the NATO issue to lay the rhetorical groundwork for an invasion, even if it had little basis in reality.

Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, suggested that Mr. Putin was trying to distract from more urgent matters. "Everybody's talking about NATO expansion," Mr. McFaul said on a podcast by the Center for a New American Security that was released on Jan. 11. "Suddenly, we're debating this issue that wasn't even an issue. That's a great advantage to him."

Like European leaders, President Biden remains uninterested in Ukrainian membership in NATO. Here are four reasons.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mr. Biden successfully urged NATO to accept Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic as member states in the late 1990s. The top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at the time, Mr. Biden said that turning the former Cold War adversaries into allies would mark the "beginning of another 50 years of peace" for Europe. He added that the move would right a "historical injustice" perpetrated by Stalin.

But over the course of two decades of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, experts said, Mr. Biden's fervor for expanding NATO cooled considerably. In 2004, seven Eastern European countries joined the alliance, and in 2008, President George W. Bush pushed NATO to issue a declaration that Ukraine and Georgia would become members in the future despite reservations from U.S. intelligence agencies. However, the alliance has never offered either country a formal action plan to join, a necessary step for them to do so.

As recently as June, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told senators that "we support Ukraine membership in NATO." Mr. Biden, however, has been far more circumspect in his public comments and "has soft-pedaled talk of extending NATO membership to Ukraine," two foreign policy scholars, Joshua Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim, wrote in September in Foreign Affairs.

In 2014, as vice president, Mr. Biden told officials in Ukraine during a visit there that any U.S. military support would be small, if given at all, according to a biography of Mr. Biden by Evan Osnos, a New Yorker writer who was on the trip. Russia had just invaded and annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, and Ukrainian officials were unhappy with Mr. Biden's message.

"We no longer think in Cold War terms," Mr. Biden told Mr. Osnos, adding that "there is nothing that Putin can do militarily to fundamentally alter American interests."

Last June, Mr. Biden told journalists at NATO headquarters in Brussels that "school is out on that question" when asked whether Ukraine could join the alliance.

To meet one of the three main criteria for entry into NATO, a European nation must demonstrate a commitment to democracy, individual liberty and support for the rule of law. While Ukrainian leaders say they have met that threshold, some American and European officials argue otherwise.

In a 2020 analysis, Transparency International, an anticorruption watchdog, ranked Ukraine 117th out of 180 countries on its corruption index, lower than any NATO nation.

Officials in European nations with stronger liberal governance - notably in Sweden and Finland - have also floated the possibility of joining NATO, despite years of determined nonalignment. That is a discussion "we are ready to do," Victoria J. Nuland, the State Department's under secretary for political affairs, told journalists on Tuesday. "Obviously, they are longtime, established, stable democracies."

She signaled that might not be the case with Ukraine. "That conversation would be slightly different than it is with countries that are making the transition to democratic systems and dealing with intensive problems of corruption and economic reform and democratic stability, etc.," Ms. Nuland said.

Her comments echoed those of Mr. Biden on his 2014 visit to Ukraine. "To be very blunt about it, and this is a delicate thing to say to a group of leaders in their house of parliament, but you have to fight the cancer of corruption that is endemic in your system right now," Mr. Biden told Ukrainian officials then.

Some Western officials also question whether Ukraine could meet a second set of criteria: contributing to the collective defense of NATO nations. But Ukraine sent troops to the U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"There are steps that Ukraine needs to take," Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said in September after President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine met with Mr. Biden in the Oval Office. "They're very familiar with these: efforts to advance rule of law reforms, modernize its defense sector and expand economic growth."

After annexing Crimea, Mr. Putin invaded eastern Ukraine and gave military aid to a separatist insurgency there. He did something similar in Georgia in 2008. The message has been clear: If these two nations join NATO, the United States and European countries will have to grapple directly with ongoing Russian-fueled conflicts.

Russia could also impose other costs on Europe, such as withholding gas exports. And Germany and many other NATO nations prefer to choose their battles with Russia, given its proximity and Mr. Putin's aggressive nature. They know he and other Russian officials are obsessed with Ukraine.

From left, Russia's deputy defense minister, Aleksandr V. Fomin; its deputy foreign minister, Aleksandr V. Grushko; and Jens Stoltenberg, NATO's secretary general, on Wednesday in Brussels. Credit... Pool photo by Olivier Hoslet

Given all that, Ukraine would almost certainly be unable to meet the third main criterion to join NATO: approval from all 30 members.

"The principal objection would be: Does such a move actually contribute to the stability in Europe, or would it contribute to destabilization?" said Douglas E. Lute, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO. "I think it's indisputable there wouldn't be consensus among the 30 members, even though all allies agree that Ukraine has the right to aspire to become a NATO member."

Stephen M. Walt, a professor of international affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, said that even in the 1990s, when NATO enlargement was first proposed, many prominent American strategists, most notably George F. Kennan, opposed it for this reason. "That was the concern all along - it wouldn't be easy to do this in a way that wouldn't threaten Russia," he said.

Ukrainian leaders have not always pushed hard to join NATO, and that has shaped the American approach.

Former President Viktor Yushchenko wanted entry into the alliance, but Ukrainians became more reluctant after Russia invaded Georgia. His successor, Viktor Yanukovych, dropped any drive for membership and promoted closer ties with Russia, even agreeing to allow Moscow to continue leasing a Black Sea naval port in Crimea.

During the Obama administration, American officials encouraged Ukraine to sign a formal association agreement with the European Union rather than try to join NATO. Mr. Putin pressured Mr. Yanukovych to reject the agreement, which led to the Euromaidan protests starting in 2013 that eventually ousted Mr. Yanukovych.

"A lot of the U.S. policy has been quite reactive due to circumstances," said Fiona Hill, a Russia expert at the Brookings Institution who was a senior director for Europe and Russia on the National Security Council under President Donald J. Trump. "It has also changed due to changes in Ukraine itself toward this."

"By now, you've got much more sentiment in Ukraine for joining NATO," she added.

Mr. Zelensky has pressed Mr. Biden repeatedly on membership, including during his visit to the White House in September. "I would like to discuss with President Biden here his vision, his government's vision of Ukraine's chances to join NATO and the time frame for this accession, if it is possible," he said as he sat next to Mr. Biden.

Mr. Biden blew past those comments without responding.

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NATO Won't Let Ukraine Join Soon. Here's Why.

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Ukraine has pressed for membership to defend against Russia. But President Biden and European leaders are not ready for that step. Send any friend a story As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. Anyone can read what you share.

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Many of the refugees are going to surrounding countries or just other European countries. The countries they mostly are going to are, Poland, Romania, Moldova, Russian Federation,Hungary, Slovakia, and also some other European countries. Many refugees wait a long time to be let into a country and the journey is not easy.