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Thank you for your Padlet submission.  The articles are interesting and analysis indepth.  You may want to mention that China is facing a widening income gap, i.e. the rich are getting richer, poor, poorer.  There is also the problem of Youth Unemployment where fresh university graduates are find it difficult to get jobs in the city, namely Shanghai and Beijing.  This is a problem in many developed countries such as US, India and South Korea.

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Thank you for your Padlet submission.  The articles are interesting and analysis indepth.  You may want to mention that China is facing a widening income gap, i.e. the rich are getting richer, poor, poorer.  There is also the problem of Youth Unemployment where fresh university graduates are find it difficult to get jobs in the city, namely Shanghai and Beijing.  This is a problem in many developed countries such as US, India and South Korea.

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Points we will be further analyzing on in the final report:

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Points we will be further analyzing on in the final report:

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What demand-pull inflation is

Why cold waves can affect countries with frequently-changing climates (e.g. China) so badly

Why there is such things as "temporary inflation"

Pros/Cons of inflation in China

How inflation can be controlled

how countries deal with cold wave to reduce its effects

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Preliminary Analysis for China's Inflation Rate (Article 3)

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Preliminary Analysis for China's Inflation Rate (Article 3)

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Trend:

China’s consumer price rose the most since mid-2014 in February

The consumer-price index rose 2.3 percent in February from a year earlier, up from 1.8 percent in January, as food prices surged 7.3 percent.

Why it is happening:

There is demand-pull inflation. This is due to the 1 week long Lunar New Year holidays in which millions of Chinese will celebrate. Through this celebration, many will feast on roast pork, roast duck, fish, seafood and vegetables. (Rapid increase in demand, so suppliers start to sell items at a higher price than usual)

In addition to the Lunar New Year holidays, there has been a cold wave in China. The cold wave refers to food supply decreasing because a cold wave could hinder crop growth as the weather condition will not be suitable for the crops to grow therefore the crops cannot be harvested, decreasing the supply for vegetables.

However, this inflation trend is said to be temporary by government officials and not something to be overly worried about

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-10/china-inflation-picks-up-as-food-prices-jump-demand-recovershttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-10/china-inflation-picks-up-as-food-prices-jump-demand-recovers

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China's consumer price rose the most since mid-2014 in February as food costs jumped amid the week-long Lunar New Year holidays, where millions binge on roast pork, duck, seafood and vegetables.

The consumer-price index rose 2.3 percent in February from a year earlier, up from 1.8 percent in January, as food prices surged 7.3 percent. Raising question marks over the durability of that pickup, non-food prices moderated from a month earlier to a 1 percent increase and services inflation slowed.

The producer-price index fell 4.9 percent, narrowing from a 5.3 percent decrease in January, extending declines to a record 48 months.

Stabilization in prices, if sustained in coming months, will ease policy makers' concerns over deflation, which discourages new investment and erodes profit margins. Still, CPI remains well below the government's target for 3 percent this year, meaning there's no constraint yet on policy makers' scope for easier monetary settings.

"Food prices surged before the Spring Festival and a cold wave pushed them higher," said Zhao Yang, Chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. "The jump is temporary. Inflation is unlikely to become a concern that would limit monetary policy."

Zhao said he sees inflation moderating again in coming months, while there is some risk that rents will rise in the nation's biggest cities as property prices recover.

Mining and raw materials prices remained the biggest drag on factory prices.

China's inflation rebound compares with a subdued picture in some of the world's other large economies. In Japan, the central bank's key price gauge didn't move in January, hovering around zero compared with a 2 percent inflation goal. Euro-area consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in January, keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to ease further. Meanwhile, the cost of living in the U.S., excluding food and fuel, rose in January the most in four years when the so-called core consumer-price measure climbed 0.3 percent.

For the PBOC, the acceleration in prices may be double edged.

"If households have to spend more money on food then they may cut back in other areas," said James Laurenceson, deputy director for the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney. "With household consumption now driving economic growth, that's a risk the PBOC would be keeping a close eye on. Overall, the case for a loosening of monetary policy stance remains, and perhaps has even been strengthened."
- With assistance by Xiaoqing Pi, Kevin Hamlin, and Ailing Tan
(Updates with quote from economist in final paragraph.)

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China Inflation Fastest Since Mid-2014 as Food Prices Jump

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China's consumer price rose the most since mid-2014 in February as food costs jumped amid the week-long Lunar New Year holidays, where millions binge on roast pork, duck, seafood and vegetables. The consumer-price index rose 2.3 percent in February from a year earlier, up from 1.8 percent in January, as food prices surged 7.3 percent.

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Points we will be further analyzing on in the final report:

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Points we will be further analyzing on in the final report:

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Causes for unemployment

Why GDP growth has slowed down although employment rate has grown

Government policies and whether they will help improve unemployment rate

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Preliminary Analysis for China's Unemployment Rate and growth (Article 2):

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Preliminary Analysis for China's Unemployment Rate and growth (Article 2):

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Unemployment rate trend:

Has been consistently at 4.1% over the past 6 years, although GDP has been decelerating.

Reported unemployment rate given by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is believed to be unreliable

Why it is happening:

NBS lacks data because the unemployment rate that the NBS provides reflects how many members of the registered urban population have reported to the government to receive unemployment benefits.

China’s piecemeal unemployment insurance and underdeveloped re-employment programmes weaken the incentive for people to seek assistance. As a result, the NBS unemployment figures are far from accurate.

China’s government has moved to remedy the unreliable unemployment rate, by carrying out urban unemployment surveys. But, despite having been collected a decade ago, those statistics have yet to be released. This shows that the government may be hiding some information.

UHS data shows that the shift from a manufacturing-driven growth model to a services-led model that empowers private innovators led to continuous job creation in the services sector from 2005 to 2012. Shift refers to manufacturing-driven growth model to a services-led model that empowers private innovators

UHS data suggests the average time it takes an unemployed worker to find a new job in the services and non-state sectors is shorter than in the manufacturing and state sectors. If the manufacturing and state sectors do begin to lay off more employees, urban unemployment rates are bound to rise.

Based on UHS data, labour-force participation in China has increased slightly since 2008 and proportion of workers exiting the labour market has decreased. The employment rate has grown rapidly in recent years, although GDP growth has slowed

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China's Unemployment Rate and growth(Article 2)

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China's Unemployment Rate and growth(Article 2)

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http://m.todayonline.com/chinaindia/china/difficult-choice-between-unemployment-and-growth

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The difficult choice between unemployment and growth

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Since 2002, China's economy has undergone significant changes, including a shift from acceleration to deceleration of Gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Yet the official urban unemployment rate, jointly issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Department of Labor and S

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Points we will be further analyzing on in the final report

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Points we will be further analyzing on in the final report

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China's structural shift in the Chinese economy to be more focused on the services sector than on the manufacturing sector.

How China's matured economy affect the GDP growth rate.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/china-s-gdp-misses-estimates-as-stimulus-struggles-for-traction

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China's economy slowed in December, capping the weakest quarter of growth since the 2009 global recession, as the Communist leadership grapples with a transition to consumer-led expansion.

Industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all slowed at the end of the year, while gross domestic product rose 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. Full-year growth of 6.9 percent, the least since 1990, was in line with the government's target of about 7 percent.

Policy makers must weigh the need for further monetary easing with the risk it would spur more weakness in the yuan and additional capital outflows. Arguing against major stimulus: a rise in services, which became more than half of the economy for the first time, cushioned the slowdown and underpinned employment.

"2016 will be another challenging year as the old capital-intensive, highly levered industrial sector continues to be placed under severe strain," said Kenneth Courtis, former Asia vice chairman at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and now chairman of Starfort Holdings. "But we remain constructive on the outlook for the period ahead," he said,
citing steady job gains and retail sales that are rising faster than GDP.

Industrial production posted one of the weakest gains in the past quarter century, increasing 5.9 percent in December from a year earlier, compared with a 6 percent median estimate of analysts and November's 6.2 percent.

Retail sales increased 11.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with the 11.3 percent projected by economists. Fixed-asset investment excluding rural areas expanded 10 percent last year, the slowest pace since 2000.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed 3.2 percent higher as the data fueled speculation of increased stimulus and industrial shares rallied on prospects of state-fund buying.

Deflation Pressure

Bloomberg's monthly GDP tracker slipped to 6.69 percent in December, from 6.85 percent a month earlier. A measure of economy-wide inflation slipped deeper into negative territory, declining 0.5 percent in 2015, according to another Bloomberg gauge.

"Deepening of deflationary pressures require more decisive reflationary policies," economists Julia Wang and LiJing at HSBC Holdings Plc wrote in a report. "Both monetary and fiscal easing measures are needed to help support demand and anchor expectations."

HSBC forecast a quarter percentage point interest-rate cut and 100 basis-point reserve ratio reduction this quarter, plus a wider fiscal deficit target for the year.

IMF Outlook

In an update to its annual outlook published Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund left its estimate for China's growth this year unchanged at 6.3 percent even as it lowered the global projection to 3.4 percent. The fund said risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside, with the world facing three big adjustments: the emerging-market slowdown, China's shift to growth driven less by exports and manufacturing, and the Federal Reserve's gradual exit from ultra-low interest rates.

China's top leadership has signaled in recent months it may allow some additional slowness as officials tackle delicate tasks such as reducing excess capacity, but nothing that could threaten President Xi Jinping's goal of at least 6.5 percent growth through 2020. The world's second-largest economy will slow to 6.5 percent this year and 6.3 percent next year, according to the median of economist estimates.

Reaching the official 6.5 percent target "is fast becoming a challenge," Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong, said in a note.

China's economy is going through a "tough transition to make, but critical if growth is to be sustainable," former Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said at a forum Tuesday in Hong Kong. "You have to have a transition to more services if you want to keep the economy growing and providing jobs."

Two-Speed Growth

China's economy is growing at two speeds, with old rust-belt industries from steel to coal and cement in decline while consumption, services and technology do better. Services accounted for 50.5 percent of output last year.

The policy response to last year's slowdown included accelerated monetary easing with six interest-rate cuts since late 2014 and increased fiscal spending. Through market turbulence, the central bank forged ahead with interest-rate liberalization by removing a cap on deposit rates and won the IMF's approval for the yuan to enter its Special Drawing Rights basket of reserve currencies.

This year, attention is likely to turn more to a new focus on supply-side reforms such as slashing excess industrial capacity and labor in state enterprises, cutting taxes and boosting productivity.

"China's monetary policy should remain extremely accommodative," said Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. "While headline growth looks fine, the breakdown of the figures points to overall weakness in the economy. More importantly, recent market turmoil warns many of the weakness of China's economy and its financial system."
- With assistance by Kevin Hamlin, Xiaoqing Pi, Enda Curran, Chris Anstey, Jeff Kearns, and Ailing Tan
(Updates with analyst's comment in 13th paragraph.)

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China GDP Slows to Weakest Since 2009 on Manufacturing Slide

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China's economy slowed in December, capping the weakest quarter of growth since the 2009 global recession, as the Communist leadership grapples with a transition to consumer-led expansion. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all slowed at the end of the year, while gross domestic product rose 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.

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Preliminary Analysis for CHINA GDP (Article 1)

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Preliminary Analysis for CHINA GDP (Article 1)

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GDP trend:

There has been a steady decline in GDP growth rates since peaking in 2009 after the Global Recession. This is shown as from data shown from the World Bank, China’s GDP growth rate was 10.63% in 2010, 9.48% in 2011, 7.75% in 2012, 7.68% in 2013 and 7.35% in 2014. In 2016, China’s GDP growth rate reached a low of 6.7% in the first quarter of 2016, capping the weakest quarter of growth since the 2009 global recession.

A rise in services which became more than half of the economy for the first time, cushioned the slowdown and underpinned employment.

The reasons for the decline in GDP growth rates are the slow down of industrial production, fixed-asset investment at the end of 2015, China's shift to growth to services and less on exports and manufacturing, focusing on supply-side reforms, grappling with communist leadership along with the transition to a consumer-led expansion and tackling of delicate tasks by officials and a maturing economy.

There is a slow of industrial production as construction and manufacturing industries are unable to keep up with the world's high demands.  Thus, this puts these sectors under tremendous strain and as a result, China is unable to produce as many goods as what is demanded and this therefore lead to lower economic growth.

Chinese economy growth rate is also decreasing because China’s economy is maturing and as a result, the economic growth rate is decreasing.

A slowdown in a country's economy would weaken the country's currency (Yuan) and therefore the weakening of currency will cause a trade deficit when the cost of imports is higher than the value of exports.