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Making predictions

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Watch the advert and get the main feature of it

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evidence - by NASA

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Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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The rate of change since the mid-20th century is unprecedented over millennia.

Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era - and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth's orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Credit: Luthi, D., et al.. 2008; Etheridge, D.M., et al. 2010; Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record.) Find out more about ice cores (external site).

The current warming trend is different because it is clearly the result of human activities since the mid-1800s, and is proceeding at a rate not seen over many recent millennia. It is undeniable that human activities have produced the atmospheric gases that have trapped more of the Sun's energy in the Earth system. This extra energy has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred.

Do scientists agree on climate change?

Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists - 97 percent - agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change.

detailed answer

Earth-orbiting satellites and new technologies have helped scientists see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate all over the world. These data, collected over many years, reveal the signs and patterns of a changing climate.

Scientists demonstrated the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases in the mid-19th century. Many of the science instruments NASA uses to study our climate focus on how these gases affect the movement of infrared radiation through the atmosphere. From the measured impacts of increases in these gases, there is no question that increased greenhouse gas levels warm Earth in response.

"Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal."

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that Earth's climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age. Carbon dioxide from human activities is increasing about 250 times faster than it did from natural sources after the last Ice Age.

References

References
Header image shows clouds imitating mountains as the sun sets after midnight as seen from Denali's backcountry Unit 13 on June 14, 2019. Credit: NPS/Emily Mesner

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Climate Change Evidence: How Do We Know?

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Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. How do we know it's happening? Here's the evidence.

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Will America leave or remain in Paris Climate Agreement? 

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Will America leave or remain in Paris Climate Agreement? 

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Article - Independent

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President Donald Trump has said that the US could "go back" into the Paris climate deal - having withdrawn America from the global accord last year.

"We could conceivably go back in ... I feel very strongly about the environment," said the President during a joint news conference with Norway's Prime Minister Erna Solberg.

Mr Trump began the withdrawal process in June last year but it will not officially conclude per the terms of United Nations-brokered agreement until just before the 2020 US election.

The agreement was signed under former President Barack Obama's administration in December 2015 by nearly 200 countries to curb global carbon emissions and contain global warming to 2 C.

Mr Trump has called climate change a "hoax" in the past - one perpetrated by the Chinese.

The President said in his 1 June 2016 withdrawal announcement that the agreement put American workers - particularly in the coal industry - at an "economic disadvantage."

The Paris accord "as drawn and as we signed was very unfair to the US," he said today.

Mr Trump said the agreement "put penalties on us...and took away a lot of our asset values."

He noted that this is "rich in gas, and coal, and oil, and other things...there was a tremendous penalty to using it. According to some estimates we would have had to close businesses in order to qualify by 2025," but it was unclear to which "estimates" the President had been referring.

"Frankly, it's an agreement I had no problem with, but I had a problem with the agreement that was signed because as usual, [the Obama administration] made a bad deal," he said.

The crux of the President's message was that the deal "really would have taken away our competitive edge."

He added that though he feels "very strongly about the environment" and the Environmental Protection Agency along with its administrator Scott Pruitt "want clean water, clean air," American businesses needed to be able to "compete."

The announcement that the US - one of the world's largest polluters - could withdraw its withdrawal from the Paris accord appears to be contradictory to Mr Trump's repeated comments about the "unfair" deal.

As Neil Bhatiya, a researcher at the DC-based think tank Center for a New American Security, told The Independent: the administration has not been able to articulate a criticism of the Paris agreement that reflects what the agreement actually says."

He explained that the US "has a lot of flexibility" in determining exactly how to reduce emissions to meet the agreed-upon targets in the Paris accord.

Also, ahead of the signing the Obama administration's team had been insistent on language which would make the agreement entirely voluntary and not make the Paris Agreement a treaty - which would have required Congressional approval and been legally binding.

In other words, the accord is entirely voluntary.

"It would not be too difficult to submit a new national climate change plan that addresses the competitiveness issues Trump cites," Mr Bhatiya said.

Sue Biniaz, the former US State Department Deputy Legal Adviser on climate, previously told The Independent "there's no legal reason why [the Paris accord] couldn't be amended, but I don't think it needs to be amended or "renegotiated" in order to address the concerns raised by the President."

Mr Trump and Mr Pruitt had indicated that the US was open to renegotiating the deal which took 21 years of global meetings to draft and sign.

However, any possibility of that was quickly dismissed when Germany, France, Italy issued a rare joint statement in the wake of June 2016 announcement and unequivocally said the deal "cannot be renegotiated since it is a vital instrument for our planet, societies and economies."

The carbon emissions targets and financial contributions to the various funds set up through the UN, the Green Climate Fund, and bilateral commitments can be changed based on each countries' prerogatives.

Todd Stern, Mr Obama's appointed Special Envoy on Climate Change in the US State Department, told The Independent last June that it was "extremely hard to imagine any country wanting to renegotiate [the agreement] because they felt the US got a bum deal."

The other issue is figuring out "what the President even means by" renegotiation, said Mr Stern.

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Trump has said America could 'go back' into the Paris climate change deal

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President Donald Trump has said that the US could "go back" into the Paris climate deal - having withdrawn America from the global accord last year. "We could conceivably go back in ... I feel very strongly about the environment," said the President during a joint news conference with Norway's Prime Minister Erna Solberg.