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Gasoline prices, already soaring following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, may climb even higher during the busy summer driving season.

Unleaded gas, which reached a record $4.33 per gallon in the U.S. on Friday, could pass $5 across a large part of the country over the next six months, causing particular pain to low-income households and rural residents who may be forced to cut back on spending.

"Unfortunately, I see prices going higher from here," Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at the commodity and currency investment inter-dealer brokerICAP, told Fortune. "We could see a national average of between $5 to $6 per gallon all summer long, with diesel prices even higher."

If sky-high gas prices do persist, it could have a significant impact on the U.S. economy, leading to falling consumer demand for all sorts of products as people tighten their belts to offset the higher cost of daily commutes.

The potential impact is so great that some experts are forecasting a greater likelihood of recession and stagflation. Goldman Sachs analysts now see a 35% risk of recession in 2022, up from just 10% a year ago. Meanwhile, former European Central Bank official Otmar Issing warned in an interview with Bloomberg last week that stagflation is "the biggest risk" facing the global economy. Even U.S. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh recently said that a recession is now " a real likelihood " as gas prices surge.

Why are gas prices sky-high?

Rising gas prices are mainly a result of severe sanctions by the U.S and its allies that have effectively taken Russian oil off the market. The move has led to the sixth-largest disruption in oil supply since World War II, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Research.

While the U.S. purchased only 3.3% of its crude from Russia in 2021 and around 7% of its total petroleum products in 2020, oil is ultimately priced by the highly interconnected global commodities market. That means rising oil prices are reflected at the pump worldwide, not just in countries that import Russian energy.

Russia was the world's largest oil product exporter in 2021, according to the International Energy Agency, pumping out roughly 5 million barrels of crude each day.

The loss of this supply sent Brent Crude prices, the international benchmark, to near $140 per barrel in early March, a level not seen since 2008. While oil prices have since retreated to around $105, consumers may not experience immediate relief as experts expect prices at the pump to remain elevated throughout the summer.

From bad to worse

Replacing Russian oil won't be easy, and current attempts have struggled to fill the void.

"For the short term, the question is if these barrels can be replaced or not. Now, there are attempts to replace them, but I believe so far these attempts have been unsuccessful," analyst Tamas Varga of the independent commodity broker, PVM Oil Associates, told Fortune.

If Russia cuts off natural gas exports to Europe, Varga said that oil prices could surpass the record high of $147.27 set in July 2008 due to Europe switching to using more oil to avoid high natural gas prices..

Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader for CIBC Private Wealth Management, US, said the busy summer driving season also factors into the problem.

"We're not really building the gasoline stockpiles that we would typically see in the shoulder season to prepare us to have a lot of supplies in place for summer," Babin told Fortune. "That means that when summer comes and people start driving more, we're going to have a harder time meeting that demand and prices will go up."

In a note to clients last Thursday, Goldman Sachs analysts echoed Babin's comments, saying they now expect oil prices of $115 to $175 per barrel in 2022.

Not all experts predict prices will continue to rise, however. Jay Hatfield, founder, CEO, and portfolio manager of investment management firm Infrastructure Capital Partners, said in an interview that he believes we are "close to peak pricing" in oil.

Hatfield said that U.S. gas prices could rise another 50 to 60 cents per gallon over the next six months if the war continues, but he believes increasing U.S. oil production and falling demand for gasoline due will help keep $5 per gallon gas at bay.

Demand destruction

When gas prices exceed $5 per gallon, the economy tends to experience what's called demand destruction, whereby consumers and businesses reduce spending because of the higher prices.

The San Francisco Federal Reserve described the phenomenon in a 2007 report, saying: "When gasoline prices increase, a larger share of households' budgets is likely to be spent on it, which leaves less to spend on other goods and services. The same goes for businesses whose goods must be shipped from place to place or that use fuel as a major input."

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said in an interview with Bloomberg last week that his firm is increasing production to help prevent any broader U.S. economic problems. He expects that overall U.S. output will grow by 800,000 to 900,000 barrels daily in 2022 alone.

"So the market and the industry are responding, but you just can't turn on a dime," Lance said. When gas prices nudge above $5 per gallon, "you're starting to encroach upon that area where demand destruction will start to occur."

Low-income consumers will end up being hurt the most by higher gas prices.

"For one, gas makes up a larger share of their total spending. For another, lower-income consumers tend to work in sectors where remote working is not an option (e.g. leisure and hospitality), and so their driving demand is inelastic to gas prices," Bank of America analysts wrote in a note to clients last week.

A recession, stagflation, or both?

Studies have shown that the U.S. economy reacts asymmetrically to oil price fluctuations. In other words, rising oil prices reduce economic activity more than falling prices stimulate it. This asymmetry may lead to a recession, some experts believe.

James Hamilton, an economics professor at University of California, San Diego, has detailed how large oil price increases associated with events like the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo, the Iranian Revolution in 1978, and the First Persian Gulf War in 1990 were each followed by a global recession.

Hamilton even argued that high oil prices from 2007 to 2008 were a major contributor to the Great Recession.

Billionaire investor and DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach recently warned that rising oil and gas prices could lead to consumers spending less on everyday products and lead to dire consequences for the U.S. economy. Recession and even stagflation, an economic phenomenon that couples low growth and high inflation, are possibilities.

"Historically, oil shocks have led to demand destruction that causes recessions. We're going to start hearing the word stagflation a lot more," Gundlach said in a recent interview with Magnifi Media.

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Gas prices are already expected to top $5 a gallon, but experts lay out a scenario that could be much worse

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High gas prices are here to stay due to the Ukraine war. And it may have a huge impact on the economy.

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After a week of war - and despite Ukrainians' tougher-than-expected resistance - officials said Russian troops had a major city, a first during this invasion. So far, more than 800K people have fled Ukraine.

Stocks rebounded yesterday after Fed Chair Powell that a smaller-than-expected rate hike is coming, which eased some investors' worries - even as oil continued to climb.

The first big crypto conflict... The war in Ukraine has demand for crypto on both sides of the fight, helping to lift the price of nearly 25% since the start of Russia's invasion - and thrusting decentralized finance (DeFi) into a major military conflict. How crypto is impacting the war so far:

Crowdfunded resistance: Ukraine has over $35M in crypto to finance its ops. After Ukraine's deputy PM a link to a digital wallet, donations poured in from around the world. Still, Ukraine's crypto war chest is tiny compared to the $270M it's raised from war bonds.

Sanction resistance: Russia can also use crypto to blunt the damage of sanctions, since crypto transactions are harder to block. Russia's access to global banking is mostly frozen and its currency is nearly worthless - but it can still spend bitcoin.

Exchange resistance: Ukraine officials asked crypto exchanges to bar all Russian users from their platforms, but , Kraken, and Binance refused to pull the plug. Kraken's CEO a ban would contradict bitcoin's "libertarian values."

A geopolitical X factor... Russia wouldn't be the first country to use crypto to get around sanctions: Iran and North Korea have reportedly crypto after being frozen out of global markets. Analysts are concerned Russia and China could do the same, and both countries are also rolling out state-sponsored digital currencies.

THE TAKEAWAY

Crypto could reshape war... and war could reshape crypto. Digital currencies may change how wars are fought and financed by providing a new way to move money quickly and securely. But by the same (decentralized) token, crypto's influence in Russia's war on Ukraine could push lawmakers to accelerate plans to crack down. US regulators plan to clarify their crypto rules sometime this year.

Break out the Batmobile... If you want to catch Robert Pattinson in tights on opening night, it could cost extra. testing a new pricing strategy by raising the cost of tickets for popular movies, like Warner's "The Batman'' (hits theaters Friday). In LA and NYC, ticket prices are running about a buck more, but that hasn't dampened demand:

Batty expectations: "The Batman" could be the first blockbuster of the year: it's tracking for a $245M+ worldwide open, and not a moment too soon for chains like AMC.

Strategy shift... During the pandemic, some studios have embraced a new way to reach viewers at home (think: same-day streaming releases). That's had mixed results: Warner's "Dune" pulled in $400M at the global box office. But the studio's other day-and-date releases, like "" and "" bombed on the big screen. With North American ticket sales still down 60% from pre-Covid levels, theater chains are getting creative:

Lux-ification: reclining seats, contactless concessions, and 4D experiences are some ways theaters are enticing people back. Pricier seats for popular showings of studio tentpoles could add to the premium feel.

BTW: AMC is already charging European theatergoers extra for theater seats (think: middle, not too close).

THE TAKEAWAY

Movie tix are getting "premium-ized"... Movie tickets are famously uniform: you'll pay the same to see a $200M Marvel blockbuster as a $2M indie flick. And dynamic pricing has long been a popular model in other industries, from flights to hotels to concerts. Whether you're booking a last-minute red-eye or front-row seats to a J. Biebs show, high demand = higher cost. But hiking prices could jeopardize attendance - at a time when theaters are struggling to fill seats.

What else we're Snackin'

In his first State of the Union, President Biden said the CDC's new mask guidelines and antiviral pill would help the US return to "more normal routines."

Hold on to your Cheerios: Grocery prices are expected to spike - again - this time because Russia is a major supplier of the fertilizer used to produce many snack-aisle staples.

splitting itself into two businesses, one for gas-powered models and one for EVs, as a way to juice its electrification efforts. The Blue Oval expects to spend $50B on EVs over the next five years.

holding its first product event of the year on Tuesday. The big reveal is expected to be a cheaper iPhone SE model and an updated iPad Air.

Fitbit is recalling 1.7M smartwatches because of a risk of the battery overheating while on users' wrists. snatched up Fitbit last year for $2B to get deeper into wearables.

Snacks Daily Podcast

Two ginger kombuchas, zero credit cards...

Thanks to Amazon's "just walk out" tech, Whole Foods wants you to leave your wallet at home.

to hear why the Zon takes a "slow and steady" approach to shopping experiments.

Snack Fact of the Day

Reported Covid cases in the US have fallen by 96% from their peak in mid-January. Globally, reported cases have dropped by 16% in the past week

Thursday

Weekly jobless claims

Earnings expected from Costco, Kroger, Broadcom, TD Bank, Best Buy, Brown Forman, Gap, Duolingo, Sweetgreen, and Utz

Authors of this Snacks own: Bitcoin, and shares of Ford, Amazon, Apple, Pfizer, and Google

ID: 2063213

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🔑 The first crypto conflict - Robinhood Snacks

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After a week of war - and despite Ukrainians' tougher-than-expected resistance - officials said Russian troops had a major city, a first during this invasion. So far, more than 800K people have fled Ukraine. Stocks rebounded yesterday after Fed Chair Powell that a smaller-than-expected rate hike is coming, which eased some investors' worries - even as oil continued to climb.

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Britney Spears is getting ready to share her side of the story.

The "Toxic" singer, 40, has signed a $15 million book deal with publishing house Simon & Schuster for a tell-all memoir, PEOPLE confirms.

The news of the book deal - first reported by Page Six - comes three months after a judge terminated Britney's 13-year conservatorship.

A rep and lawyer for Britney have not responded to requests for comment. Simon & Schuster did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Over the last several months, the pop star has been vocal about her estrangement from her family, including dad Jamie, mom Lynne and sister Jamie Lynn (who recently released her own memoir).

For more on Britney Spears' new book deal and upcoming memoir, listen below to our daily podcast on PEOPLE Every Day.

"This message is to my family ... for hurting me deeper than you'll ever know !!!" she wrote on social media in October. "I know the conservatorship is about to be over but I still want justice !!!" (Jamie, Lynne and Jamie Lynn have all denied any wrongdoing.)

Britney - who has claimed she faced "conservatorship abuse" over the last decade - is still entangled in legal battles with Jamie, who requested she continue to pay his legal fees despite her conservatorship being terminated last November.

Jamie, 69, filed court documents in December 2021, demanding his daughter's estate pay his legal team for "ongoing fiduciary duties relating to the winding up of the Conservatorship of the Person and Estate."

Britney filed documents in response in January, alleging that Jamie had violated California's standards of conduct with his financial misconduct while acting as her conservator. (Jamie has insisted he only had Britney's best interest at heart during the duration of the conservatorship.)

During a court hearing to discuss the legal fees on Jan. 19, Los Angeles Judge Brenda Penny did not make a decision regarding Jamie's request and instead decided it would be discussed in a July 27 hearing.

Last week, the "Stronger" singer shared a letter she received from the United States Congress, which was signed by Congressmen Charlie Crist and Eric Swalwell and included an invitation to meet, on her Instagram account.

The letter, dated Dec. 1, 2021, started by congratulating Britney and her lawyer Mathew Rosengart for their recent "historic victories."

RELATED: Sam Asghari Tells Fiancée Britney Spears, 'The World Is Ours Baby,' in Sweet Instagram Post

In the caption of her post, Britney wrote that she was "immediately flattered" by the invitation to share her story, but that "at the time I wasn't nearly at the healing stage I'm in now."

Meanwhile, on Feb. 14, Britney celebrated her first Valentine's Day with Sam Asghari as an engaged couple.

The pop star paid tribute to her fiancé with a sweet video on Instagram that featured the pair riding bikes outside as they joked about a FedEx delivery truck.

"This man has been with me through it all !!!! I don't know what I would do without him so I think I will keep him around a bit longer .... I mean he is pretty hot 🥵 !!!!!" she captioned the video. "I love you @samasghari 👠👠👠👠👠💕💕💕💕 !!!!"

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Britney Spears Is Set to Release a Tell-All Memoir as She Signs $15 Million Book Deal

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PEOPLE confirms Britney Spears has signed a massive book deal three months after the termination of her long-held conservatorship

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https://www.the-sun.com/tech/4805830/spacex-rocket-moon-crash-watch-live-crater/

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Moon crash confusion

People on social media were confused on Friday about the rocket part, and whether it had actually crashed on the moon or not.

"Anyone know if the #moon crash has happened?" one person wrote.

"Doesn't something crash into the moon today?? 🌝🤔" another person tweeted.

What is the moon made of, continued

The crust that covers the lunar surface is around 42 miles (70 kilometers) thick on average.

Due to all of the huge hits that the moon has received, the outermost section of the crust is fragmented and jumbled, with the shattered zone giving way to intact material below a depth of around 6 miles (9.6 km).

The lunar surface is around 43 percent oxygen, 20 percent silicon, 19 percent magnesium, 10 percent iron, 3 percent calcium, 3 percent aluminum, 0.42 percent chromium, 0.18 percent titanium, and 0.12 percent manganese by weight.

The moon doesn't have an atmosphere

This implies that the Moon's surface is exposed to cosmic rays, meteorites, and solar winds, and experiences extreme temperature swings.

Because there is no atmosphere on the Moon, no sound can be heard, and the sky is constantly pitch black.

Evidence of crash will be 'lost'

There is no way to have seen the crash happen in real-time, and we won't know that it happened for sure until satellites orbiting the Moon send back images of a probable crash site.

The rocket booster part also likely broke into thousands of pieces, the BBC reported.

Therefore, much of the physical evidence of where it came from will be lost as well.

Rocket's last moments

No one will have seen the rocket part's last moments in real-time, according to the BBC.

Two satellites that orbit the Moon will eventually provide evidence of the crash after they pass over the likely impact site.

The satellites will then photograph the crater that will probably result from the impact.

Did the rocket hit the moon?

We might not know for weeks or months when, where, and how the rocket part actually landed on the lunar surface.

But experts predicted it would do so at around 7.25am (12.25 GMT).

Did SpaceX respond?

The SpaceX Twitter account doesn't show any sort of recent response to the accusations that the rocket booster belonged to the company.

In fact, the rocket part most likely belonged to China, not Elon Musk's company.

China has since denied the accusation.

How many people have been on the moon?

Twelve people, all as part of the Apollo program, have stepped on the Moon.

Those who have walked on the moon are:

Neil Armstrong

Buzz Aldrin

Pete Conrad

Alan Bean

Alan Shepard

Edgar Mitchell

David Scott

James Irwin

John Young

Charles Duke

Gene Cernan

Harrison Schmidtt

As of January 2022, four of them are still alive: Aldrin, Scott, Duke, and Schmitt.

A unique event

The orbiter's mission teamis assessing whetherobservations can be made of any changes to the lunar environment associated with the impact.

The team at NASA are also hoping to later identify the crater formed by the impact.

"This unique event presents an exciting research opportunity," NASA said in an emailed statement.

"Following the impact, the mission can use its cameras to identify the impact site, comparing older images to images taken after the impact. The search for the impact crater will be challenging and might take weeks to months."

When is the next full moon?

The next full moon will be on Friday, March 18 at 3.17am, however, the moon will seem full to the casual stargazer the night before and following its peak.

The Full Worm Moon is the name given to the full moon in March.

Origin of debris that hit moon is unclear

The origin of the rocket part that supposedly hit the moon today is unclear.

Bill Gray, who identified the rocket in the first place, had initially thought it was the SpaceX Falcon rocket stage that launched the US Deep Space Climate Observatory, or DSCOVR,in 2015.

However, Gray later admitted he'd gotten that wrong, and it was likely from a 2014 Chinese lunar mission - an assessment NASA agreed with.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has denied the booster was from its Chang'e-5 moon mission, saying that therocket burned up on re-entry to Earth's atmosphere.

How much space debris is there?

According to the European Space Agency, there is around 9,200 tonnes of space debris, with 34,000 objects greater than 10cm in size and 128 million objects measuring from 1mm to 1cm.

It also estimates there have been more than 560 break-ups, explosions, collisions or non-typical events resulting in fragmentation.

While rocket launches have placed about 10,680 satellites in Earth's orbit since 1957, around 6,250 of these remain in space, but only 3,700 are still functioning.

Explained: When will we get images of the crash?

The only way toknow exactly where the rocket hits is through images, which could be in a few weeks... or even months.

NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter was not in a position to observe the impact as it happened, the agency said.

What are the full moons in 2022?

There are 12 full Moons to spot in 2021, each with its own unique name.

Here's the full list:

January 17 - Wolf Moon

February 16 - Snow Moon

March 18 - Worm Moon

April 16 - Pink Moon

May 16 - Flower Moon

June 14 - Strawberry Moon

July 13 - Buck Moon

August 11 - Sturgeon Moon

September 10 - Harvest Moon

October 9 - Blood Moon

November 8 - Frost Moon

December 7 - Cold Moon

What would've happened if we were able to see the crash

Bill Gray, who first identified the rocket heading for the moon, has predicted what would have happened if we were able to see the crash.

He said: "If it were observable -- which, sadly, it won't be -- you would see a big flash, and dust and disintegrated rocket bits and pebbles and boulders thrown out, some of it for hundreds of kilometers".

NASA has revealed some very important dates for Moon missions that should be happening this year.

The US space agency hopes to send a rocket around the Moon in May or June of 2022 but that all depends on the success of a 'mini mission' this month.

Nasa's 2022 mission to the Moon is called Artemis 1.

It will be testing out hardware so that Nasa can land the first woman and the first person of color on the Moon by 2025.

That crewed mission is being referred to as Artemis 3 and a lot has to happen before it can take place.

Before Artemis 1 can launch, Nasa wants to do a test run this month.

The test will be a full "wet" dress rehearsal on March 17.

Artemis 1 isn't a crewed mission but it needs to loop around the Moon to test three key components.

Impact expected to be 'minor'

The impact of the hit on the Moon is expected to be minor, experts have said.

The collision was expected to hit the moon a few minutes ago at a velocity of 2.58km/s.

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Massive rocket 'has crashed into moon' traveling at 5,800mph, experts say

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Moon crash confusion People on social media were confused on Friday about the rocket part, and whether it had actually crashed on the moon or not. "Anyone know if the #moon crash has happened?" one person wrote. "Doesn't something crash into the moon today?? 🌝🤔" another person tweeted.

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California Has the Strictest Car Modification Laws

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Modifying your car comes at a price and what you pay depends on the extent of modification you want . For some individuals, the end product is much more important than what they pay for car modifications. People will ensure their vehicle has every modification they want. Unfortunately, some states h…

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There are two signs that Taiwan's fast-pastry phenom, the 85°C Bakery Cafe, has moved into your neighborhood:

First are the telltale lines. Second are the cries of "fresh bread!" whenever hot loaves of milk bread or brioche come out of the oven.

The newest Bay Area location is in Concord, at the Park & Shop center on Willow Pass Road. It's the first in Contra Costa County.

Launched in Taiwan in 2004, the 85°C chain - the philosophy is "5-star quality at affordable prices" - moved into Southern California in 2008 and has been expanding rapidly ever since. There are now more than 1,000 locations worldwide, the vast majority in Taiwan and mainland China, with rapid expansion in Northern California.

The first Bay Area location was in Newark. Now there are cafes in San Jose (2), Milpitas, Cupertino, Fremont, San Leandro, Pleasanton, Daly City and San Francisco.

Besides breads, the cafe specializes in freshly baked Euro-style danishes, Asian-style buns, savories, dessert cakes and coffee and tea drinks. Although the name is derived from the company's belief that coffee holds its flavor best at 85 degrees Celsius (which translates into 185 degrees Fahrenheit), the chain's signature coffee drink is an iced coffee topped with sea salt foam.

The bakeries used to be known for long, late hours, but that was before the pandemic created staffing shortages and other issues. Currently, the Concord hours are 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. daily; some locations are open a little later.

Details: 1691 Willow Pass Road, Concord; 925-705-4200; www.85cbakerycafe.com

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85°C Bakery comes to Concord - first one in Contra Costa County

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There are two signs that Taiwan's fast-pastry phenom, the 85°C Bakery Cafe, has moved into your neighborhood: First are the telltale lines. Second are the cries of "fresh bread!" whenever hot loaves of milk bread or brioche come out of the oven.

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West Orders Seven Russian Banks Off Swift, But Leaves Others On

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Western countries agreed to remove seven Russian banks from Swift, the financial-messaging infrastructure that serves as the bloodline for the global financial system. But they kept access for other Russian banks, inclu

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https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/powell-tells-congress-fed-raise-rates-month-83202528

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WASHINGTON -- Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he supports a traditional quarter-point increase in the Federal Reserve's benchmark short-term interest rate when the Fed meets later this month, rather than a larger increase that some of its policymakers have proposed.

But Powell did open the door to a bigger hike in the event that inflation, which has reached a four-decade high, doesn't noticeably decline this year, as the Fed expects it to.

"I'm inclined to propose and support" a quarter-point rate hike to fight the acceleration of inflation that has engulfed the economy in recent months, Powell told the House Financial Services Committee on the first of two days of semiannual testimony to Congress.

Most other Fed officials have in recent weeks supported a similar modest rise, while a few have said they back a half-point hike or are at least open to such an increase. Higher Fed rates typically lead, in turn, to higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, including for homes and auto loans and credit cards.

"We have an expectation that inflation will peak and begin to come down this year," Powell said. But he added: "To the extent inflation comes in higher ... then we would be prepared to move more aggressively" by raising rates by more than a quarter point later this year.

The stock market rose in response to Powell's support of the smaller increase. The S&P 500 jumped 1.7% in mid-day trading.

The Fed chair cautioned that the economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting sanctions by the U.S. and Europe, are "highly uncertain" and said "it's too soon to say" how they might affect the Fed's policies.

Before Russia's invasion, the Fed planned to carry out "a series" of rate increases this year, Powell said, potentially at each of the remaining seven Fed meetings. For now, the Fed will "proceed carefully along the lines of that plan."

Economists have forecast that the Fed will implement five to seven quarter-point hikes this year.

Powell spoke a day after President Joe Biden said in his State of the Union address that "my top priority is getting prices under control."

This month's increase would be the first since 2018. And it would mark the beginning of a delicate challenge for the Fed: It wants to increase rates enough to reduce inflation, now at a four-decade high, but not so fast as to choke off growth and hiring. Powell is betting that with the unemployment rate low, at 4%, and consumer spending solid, the economy can withstand modestly higher borrowing costs.

The Fed's rate is now pegged near zero, where it has been since the pandemic struck in March 2020 and the Fed responded by slashing interest rates to help support the economy.

Powell acknowledged that consumer price increases have jumped far above the Fed's target of 2% - inflation hit 7.5% in January compared with a year earlier - and that higher prices had persisted longer than expected. He also pledged to use the Fed's tools to bring inflation back down to its target.

"We understand that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation," the Fed chair said.

Under questioning by Rep. Roger Williams, a Texas Republican, Powell said he believes the Fed can reduce inflation without tipping the economy into recession. One reason he thinks so, Powell said, is that the economy is strong now, with solid growth and the unemployment rate at a low 4%.

The Fed chair added that the central bank expects inflation to gradually decline this year as tangled supply chains unravel and consumers pull back a bit on spending. Many economists agree with him but nevertheless think inflation will stay elevated. Rising prices are spreading beyond items that were disrupted by the pandemic - autos, electronics, furniture and other household goods - into broader categories of spending, especially rental costs.

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for inflation and now predicts that prices, according to the Fed's preferred measure, will still be rising at a relatively high annual rate of 3.7% by year's end. That is far above the Fed's own most recent projection, issued in December, of 2.7%.

Powell said the Fed will also begin reducing its huge $9 trillion balance sheet, which more than doubled during the pandemic when the Fed bought trillions of dollars of bonds to try to hold down longer-term rates. He said the central bank's policymakers will likely agree on a plan for how to shrink its bond holdings when it meets in two weeks but declined to say when the plan might be implemented.

Oxford Economics, a consulting firm, projects that the Fed will reduce its holdings by about $400 billion this year, which it estimates would have the effect of rates hikes adding up to roughly one-half of a percentage point.

The invasion of Ukraine has driven up oil prices by about 18% to roughly $110 a barrel, which will make gas more expensive. Some economists have forecast that average gas prices could soon reach $4 a gallon, up from a national average of $3.66 Wednesday.

Costlier energy will send inflation even higher than it otherwise would have been in the coming months, bolstering the case for Fed rate hikes. But more expensive gas also deprives consumers of money to spend on other things. This, in turn, will likely hold down consumer spending and potentially weaken the economy - a scenario that would usually discourage the Fed from raising rates.

Powell warned that the war could lead to shortages of such commodities as neon gas and palladium, which are used to produce semiconductors. A lack of computer chips last year slowed production of cars and electronics and contributed to high inflation.

But the Fed chair also suggested that the war's overall effect on the U.S. economy may be limited as long as the conflict doesn't significantly escalate. Only about 0.5% of U.S. trade is with Russia.

"Our financial institutions and our economy do not have large interactions with the Russian economy," he said. "And it's gotten smaller and smaller in recent years."

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Powell expects a quarter-point Fed rate hike this month

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WASHINGTON -- Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he supports a traditional quarter-point increase in the Federal Reserve's benchmark short-term interest rate when the Fed meets later this month, rather than a larger increase that some of its policymakers have proposed.

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"W e will accept as many refugees as will be needed," said Marcin Ociepa, Poland's deputy minister of defence, on February 21st, three days before Russia invaded Ukraine. More than 1m people have since fled Ukraine amid Vladimir Putin's bloody war. Over half a million of them have sought refuge in Poland, one of four neighbouring countries that is a member of both the European Union and NATO.

All neighbouring EU countries have pledged to accept Ukrainians, in contrast to previous refugee crises. Data from the UNHCR, the UN's refugee agency, show that Hungary, Romania and Slovakia have accepted 133,000, 51,000 and 79,000 refugees, respectively. Others have fled to Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries (which belongs to neither the EU nor NATO). Around 100,000 have arrived since war broke out-equivalent to about 4% of Moldova's population.

Many migrants are trying to join relatives in countries farther afield. About 90,000 have so far reached European countries beyond Ukraine's immediate neighbours. On March 3rd EU member states agreed to extend visa-free travel for people fleeing Ukraine. They will also have access to government services without applying for asylum.

Not all those crossing the border are Ukrainians and some non-white refugees are receiving a hostile welcome. Nor is everyone heading west: 50,000 people have left for Russia and 374 people crossed into Belarus. Hundreds of thousands are thought to have been displaced within Ukraine.

The UNHCR reckons up to 4m people-almost a tenth of Ukraine's population-might flee in the coming weeks. At current levels of migration that number would be hit by March 19th. The EU's estimate is even higher: it expects up to 7m refugees. That would represent about a quarter of the population eligible to leave (Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 have to stay in the country as they may be conscripted). With war raging, no one knows how many will return, or when. The exodus from Ukraine has been sudden, but its effects will endure for years. ■
For a look behind the scenes of our data journalism, sign up to Off the Charts, our weekly newsletter. Our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis can be found here.

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"W e will accept as many refugees as will be needed," said Marcin Ociepa, Poland's deputy minister of defence, on February 21st, three days before Russia invaded Ukraine. More than 1m people have since fled Ukraine amid Vladimir Putin's bloody war.

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A spokesman said the decision meant that the university would have to cut in-person enrollment by at least 2,500 students in the fall of 2022.

Wheeler Hall on the University of California, Berkeley, campus. A neighborhood group challenged the university's admissions practices, contending that they had created housing problems in the community. Credit... AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

It could be harder to get into one of California's most prestigious universities after the state's highest court on Thursday declined to reverse a lower-court ruling that capped enrollment at the University of California, Berkeley, at 2020-21 levels.

The decision by the Supreme Court of California left in place a ruling issued last August that ordered the university to freeze student enrollment at 42,347.

The decision was the result of a legal battle with a residents' group, Save Berkeley's Neighborhoods, that had accused the university of failing to provide enough on-campus housing while at the same time admitting high numbers of students, many of them from other states or countries.

University officials said on Thursday that, as a result of a new analysis that concluded that they needed to include in their head count hundreds of students who would be studying abroad or in Washington, the university would have to cut in-person enrollment by at least 2,500 students in the fall of 2022.

University officials had previously said that U.C. Berkeley, already one of the nation's most selective institutions, would have 3,050 fewer seats for incoming first-year students and transfer students than it had planned for the fall of 2022.

Typically, U.C. Berkeley said, it offers admission to about 21,000 first-year and transfer students, and about 9,500 of them enroll. University officials emphasized that the decision did not mean that acceptance letters would have to be rescinded.

To soften the blow of the enrollment freeze, they said, at least 1,500 undergraduates will be offered one of two options. One group will be asked to study as online-only students in the fall and will then be allowed to attend in person in January 2023. A second group will be offered deferred enrollment to begin attending in person in January 2023.

All told, officials said, they will be able to reduce the number of students who won't be allowed to enroll at all to about 400. But the university still described those options as "far from ideal" because they would deny deserving students "a full, rich in-person experience starting in the fall when all of their classmates enroll."

"We still know this is going to be a very disappointing outcome for these thousands of students, but we are doing our best under the terms of an unprecedented court decision," Dan Mogulof, a university spokesman, said on Thursday.

University officials said they were also pursuing state legislative solutions "that could address the significant impacts of the lower court's ruling on enrollment decisions at U.C. Berkeley and other campuses."

Save Berkeley's Neighborhoods said on Thursday that while it was pleased that the State Supreme Court had maintained enforcement of the enrollment freeze, "we'd like to assure deserving California high school students that we are as disappointed as they are that U.C. has tried to use them as pawns in U.C.'s attempts to avoid mitigating the impacts from the massive enrollment increases over the past few years."

"We have offered many times to settle our case in exchange for U.C. Berkeley's agreement to a legally binding commitment to increase housing before they increase enrollment," the group said in a statement. "We have been rebuffed every time."

Phil Bokovoy, the group's president, said that since 2005, U.C. Berkeley had admitted 14,000 students but had provided only 1,600 beds. That, he said, has prompted students to seek housing in Berkeley's neighborhoods, where they have moved into apartments that were once rent-controlled, displacing low-income and middle-income residents.

He said the housing shortage had created a "a massive amount of homelessness in Berkeley." The residents' group said it was trying to avoid a housing crisis like the one at the University of California, Santa Barbara, where students have had to sleep in cars or hotels.

Last August, Judge Brad Seligman of the Superior Court of Alameda County agreed with the group that the university had "continued to increase and quickly exceeded" its enrollment projections.

He also said the university could not go forward with the Upper Hearst Project, a plan for new housing and academic space for faculty members, postdoctoral researchers and graduate students.

Save Berkeley's Neighborhoods sued the university in 2019 to stop the project because it said the university had not provided enough information or assurances about how the project would alleviate the housing crisis or affect traffic, noise and other environmental concerns.

In its statement on Thursday, Save Berkeley's Neighborhoods said it agreed with a dissent by Associate Justice Goodwin H. Liu of the Supreme Court of California, who suggested that the parties could engage in negotiations or mediation to settle their dispute.

"Indeed, given the stakes on all sides, it is hard to think of a case where a negotiated settlement seems more imperative for the good of the local community and our state," Justice Liu wrote. He added, "It is not too late to find a solution that mitigates the local community's environmental concerns without leaving 3,050 of our young people behind."

University officials said they were not able to agree to Mr. Bokovoy's demand for an enrollment cap, in part because enrollment is not determined by U.C. Berkeley, but by the University of California Board of Regents and the Legislature, which has called on the state's public universities to accept more students from California.

Mr. Mogulof said previously that the university's efforts to build more housing had also been stymied by lawsuits from community groups, a development he described as "ironic."

Maria Cramer contributed reporting.

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U.C. Berkeley Must Freeze Enrollment, California Supreme Court Says

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A spokesman said the decision meant that the university would have to cut in-person enrollment by at least 2,500 students in the fall of 2022. It could be harder to get into one of California's most prestigious universities after the state's highest court on Thursday declined to reverse a lower-court ruling that capped enrollment at the University of California, Berkeley, at 2020-21 levels.

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California continues to ease up on its executive orders that were implemented during the coronavirus pandemic as case rates and hospitalizations continue to drop.

RELATED: Newsom eliminates most pandemic-related health orders, focusing on testing, vaccines

Beginning Tuesday, March 1, unvaccinated adults, like adults who are vaccinated, will no longer be required to wear a mask in most indoor settings, state officials announced. However, masking remains "strongly recommended."

State officials made this announcement as it also said indoor masking will no longer be required at California schools and child care facilities beginning March 12.

RELATED: California to relax mask guidelines in schools starting March 12

"California continues to adjust our policies based on the latest data and science, applying what we've learned over the past two years to guide our response to the pandemic. Masks are an effective tool to minimize the spread of the virus and future variants, especially when transmission rates are high. We cannot predict the future of the virus, but we are better prepared for it and will continue to take measures rooted in science to keep California moving forward."

Masks will continue to be required in high transmission settings including public transit, health care settings, homeless shelters, corrections facilities, and long-term facilities.

However, it's worth noting local jurisdictions have the option not to align with the newly implemented state guidance.
Get your top stories delivered daily! Tune in to FOX 11 Los Angeles for the latest Southern California news. Sign up for FOX 11's Fast 5 newsletter. And, get breaking news alerts in the FOX 11 News app. Download for iOS or Android.

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California lifts indoor mask mandate for unvaccinated adults

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California continues to ease up on its executive orders that were implemented during the coronavirus pandemic as case rates and hospitalizations continue to drop. RELATED: Newsom eliminates most pandemic-related health orders, focusing on testing, vaccines Beginning Tuesday, March 1, unvaccinated adults, like adults who are vaccinated, will no longer be required to wear a mask in most indoor settings, state officials announced.

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March 4, 2022, 10:47 a.m. ET

NATO foreign ministers Friday in Brussels during a meeting on the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the growing refugee situation in Europe. Credit... Pool photo by Olivier Douliery

BRUSSELS - NATO foreign ministers rejected any possibility of intervening against Russian forces in Ukraine, whether on the ground or in the air, the alliance's secretary general said Friday.

"Allies agree we should not have NATO planes operating over Ukrainian air space or NATO troops operating in Ukrainian territory," Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general, said at a news conference after a meeting of foreign ministers.

Ukrainian officials have called for a no-fly zone over Ukraine's air space, but NATO is resisting for fear that it could draw member states into a war with Russia.

"We understand the desperation, but if we did that, we would end up with something that could lead to a full-fledged war in Europe involving much more countries and much more suffering," he said. "We will provide support, but we will not be part of the conflict."

The Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, pleaded for help from the foreign ministers of the 30 nations of the alliance, plus those of Sweden and Finland.

"Our country is ready to fight. We continue to battle the Russian invasion, but we need immediate help in repelling Russian attacks in the air," he told the meeting, according to the online news site Ukrayinska Pravda. "If you do not do this, you will have to share the responsibility for the lives and suffering of the civilian population of Ukraine who are being killed by rocket attacks from Russian planes."

The allies agreed to step up their support for other countries that are threatened by Russian subversion and even military action, Mr. Stoltenberg said. He cited Moldova, Georgia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, all of which NATO is already assisting. Like Ukraine, none is a member of the alliance.

Mr. Stoltenberg called on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to stop the war and, at least, allow the creation of humanitarian corridors for civilians suffering in Ukraine.

"This is President Putin's war, one he has chosen, planned and is waging against a peaceful country. We call on President Putin to stop this war immediately, withdraw all his forces without conditions and engage in genuine diplomacy now," he said.

He also said NATO had verified Russia's use of cluster bombs in Ukraine.

"We have seen the use of cluster bombs, and we have seen reports of use of other types of weapons which would be in violation of international law," he said. He did not specify any other kind of weapon.

Anti-personnel cluster munitions are rockets, missiles, artillery shells and bombs that deploy a large number of small explosives over a wide area, intended to attack infantry formations. The Convention on Cluster Munitions, a treaty banning such weapons, took effect in August 2010.

NATO forces used cluster bombs during the Kosovo war in 1999, and the United States dropped more than 1,000 cluster bombs in Afghanistan from October 2001 to March 2002, according to a Human Rights Watch report.
Reporting contributed by Thomas Gibbons-Neff in Kabul.

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NATO rejects intervening in Ukraine, including with a no-fly zone.

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March 4, 2022, 10:47 a.m. ET BRUSSELS - NATO foreign ministers rejected any possibility of intervening against Russian forces in Ukraine, whether on the ground or in the air, the alliance's secretary general said Friday.

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Ukraine's foreign minister said Europe's largest nuclear power plant is on fire after the facility in the country's southeast endured heavy shelling from Russian troops Friday morning.

"Russian army is firing from all sides upon Zaporizhzhia NPP, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe," the foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said on Twitter. "Fire has already broke out."

Kuleba added that if the plant, which holds six of the country's 15 reactors, explodes, it will be far worse than the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.

In a video posted on Telegram, Andriy Tuz, a facility spokesperson, demanded that Russia stop shelling the plant and said there was a "real threat of nuclear danger," according to the Associated Press.

Speaking on local television, Tuz said that shells had set fire to one of the facility's six reactors, the AP reported. The unit is under renovation but has nuclear fuel inside and remains inaccessible to firefighters because they're being shot at, Tuz said, the AP reported.

The development came one day after Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he was "gravely concerned" about the invasion of Ukraine.

"It is the first time a military conflict is happening amidst the facilities of a large, established nuclear power program," he said.

"I have called for restraint from all measures or actions that could jeopardize the security of nuclear and other radioactive material, and the safe operation of any nuclear facilities in Ukraine, because any such incident could have severe consequences, aggravating human suffering and causing environmental harm."

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Nuclear plant on fire in Ukraine after Russia attacks facility

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Ukraine's foreign minister said Europe's largest nuclear power plant is on fire after the facility in the country's southeast endured heavy shelling from Russian troops Friday morning. "Russian army is firing from all sides upon Zaporizhzhia NPP, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe," the foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said on Twitter.

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Ukraine reportedly foiled a Zelensky assassination plot after a tipoff from Russian authorities

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An alleged assassination plot against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was thwarted over the weekend, The Washington Post reports per a Ukrainian security leader, who also noted the Chechen special forces behind the plot had been “eliminated.”

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Prosecutors: Woman faked kidnapping, defrauded California

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A Northern California woman whose disappearance and mysterious reappearance set off a frantic three-week search more than five years ago has been arrested

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Wisconsin businesses respond to current events with fundraisers, donations and acts of solidarity

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Wisconsin businesses respond to current events with fundraisers, donations and acts of solidarity

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https://www.channel3000.com/wisconsin-businesses-respond-to-current-events-with-fundraisers-donations-and-acts-of-solidarity/

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Photo courtesy of Orange Tree Imports

Orange Tree Imports is hosting a Ukrainian Egg Decorating Demonstration on April 9.

Wisconsin businesses in Madison and beyond are showing support for current events, including the Russia-Ukraine crisis and an anti-transgender order in Texas.

Orange Tree Imports
Orange Tree Imports is hosting a freeUkrainian Egg Decorating Demonstration from 1-3 p.m. on April 9. The Monroe Street business has hosted this event for years, welcoming artist Pat Hall into the shop to show guests how to use a kistka, or a traditional stylus, to decorate eggs with hot wax. Orange Tree Imports sells all the Ukrainian egg decorating supplies, including the dye baths needed to give them color. While the home and gift store has hosted the event for about 40 years, this year the store plans to donate all proceeds from Ukrainian egg decorating supplies to the International Rescue Committee 's fund to help people who are displaced by the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Carol "Orange" Schroeder, co-owner and founder of 47-year-old Orange Tree Imports, says she has already donated a few hundred dollars to the fund ahead of the egg demonstration, because she says she knows the need is imminent. Orange Tree Imports also plans to bring back its egg decorating contest this year on April 9. Only raw or blown chicken eggs will be accepted, no hard boiled ones. There will be an award for best Ukrainian decorated egg as well as an overall award for any type of decorated egg. Other details about the contest will be forthcoming.
A Room of One's Own
In response to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's new order that asks " state child welfare officials to launch child abuse investigations into reports of transgender kids receiving gender-affirming care," A Room of One's Own bookstore is donating 15% of all in-store and online sales March 4-6 to the Transgender Education Network of Texas.

Crescendo
For one day only (March 1), is donating 9% of sales from both stores (Crescendo Espresso Bar + Music Cafe on Monroe Street and Crescendo Espresso Bar at Hilldale Shopping Center) to the International Rescue Committee. The 9% figure is in celebration of the coffee shop's nine years of business.
Door County Candle Co.

The Door County Candle Co. is currently running a fundraiser with a special Ukraine candle in which 100% of proceeds will be donated to Razom for Ukraine, a nonprofit Ukrainian American human rights organization. The owner of the candle company, Christiana Trapani, is a Ukrainian American. Candle orders can be placed here.
Macarons by Sim
In a sign of solidarity, the Sun Prairie-based business Macarons by Sim created a set of macarons in the colors of the Ukrainian flag.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel created a running list of opportunities for Wisconsinites to help Ukrainians in need. Find that list here.
Bloom Bake Shop
Bloom Bake Shop will join forces with bakeries all over the world in a hamantaschen sale to support Ukraine. Bloom will sell raspberry and apricot hamantaschen, a Jewish pastry, from March 4 to March 17. 70% of proceeds will go towards SOS Ukraine, an organization that provides humanitarian aid to those who have had to flee their home. This sale is a part of @hamantashen_for_ukraine, a page organized by Laurel Kratochvila, a Jewish-American who owns a bakery in Berlin.
[bayk] MADISON
[bayk] MADISON will donate 40% of their sales for their apricot pistachio crumble babka purchased between March 3rd and March 31st. Proceeds will go to World Central Kitchen, a not-for-profit organization that provides relief in the wake of a natural disaster. WCK has been offering hot meals to refugees at the border and within five Ukrainian cities.
Nik J Designs
Nik J Designs is creating 8″x 12″ Ukrainian flags to be hung up in support of Ukraine. The flags are free and available for pick-up but donations are welcomed to support their UNHCR fundraiser.
Are there other donation opportunities or signs of solidarity organized by a Wisconsin business that you don't see on the list? Email the details to eknepple@madisonmagazine.com for consideration to be added to this list.

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Wisconsin businesses respond to current events with fundraisers, donations and acts of solidarity

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Wisconsin businesses in Madison and beyond are showing support for current events, including the Russia-Ukraine crisis and an anti-transgender order in Texas. Orange Tree Imports Orange Tree Imports is hosting a freeUkrainian Egg Decorating Demonstration from 1-3 p.m. on April 9.

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Consumers across Ontario will want to fill their tanks on Wednesday as gas prices are expected to rise by as much as 10 cents a litre by the weekend, according to an industry expert.

"Tomorrow, we're going to see a net seven cent increase, bringing gas prices to a $1.67.9 and at this stage, it looks like at least another three-cent increase on Friday, which will bring us to a $1.70.9," Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, told Global News Morning on Wednesday.

This would continue to establish new records for the price of gas across the province.

"The record price, which we established just a couple of weeks ago, $161.9, represented the high-water mark," McTeague said.

"We're well over that now and we're to continue to see prices move much higher for the foreseeable future. I'm looking at at least marching towards it over $1.75.9, at some point, likely in the next week, if not earlier."

He said Russia's attack on Ukraine is playing a major part, with sanctions being placed on Russia causing prices to rise, as that country is the world's third-largest oil producer.

Drivers feeling the pricing pinch at Kingston, Ont. gas pumps

"So as we sanction Russia, it's oil and gas, it leaves the world extraordinarily short of supply," he explained.

McTeague says that the cost of diesel is rising at an even faster rate, which will hurt consumers even more.

"We're going to pay much more for everything, even those of us who don't drive," he said.

"Everything from public transit to the cost of food, because agricultural products and of course, processing costs and transportation costs are going through the roof."

There is not much consumers can do to find relief other than suck it up for now.

"Sometimes drivers can find a bit of a break in the evenings, but with prices moving up by three, five, seven, 10 cents a litre, week over week, it looks like we're going to have to, as it were, buckle up and hunker down for the next several weeks, at least," the former Liberal MP said.

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Gas prices expected to rise another 10 cents in Ontario by the weekend: expert | Globalnews.ca

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Consumers across Ontario will want to fill their tanks on Wednesday as gas prices are expected to rise by as much as 10 cents a litre by the weekend, according to an industry expert.

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A 16-year-old McDonald's employee in Arizona was fatally shot Wednesday in the restaurant's restroom, police said.

Phoenix police responded to a call about a shooting at the restaurant at 51st Avenue and Baseline Road around 10:15 a.m. and found a victim suffering gunshot wounds.

The victim was identified as Prince Nedd, who died of his wounds at the scene, the Phoenix Police Department said.

After speaking with witnesses, investigators learned Nedd was involved in a fight with "a male believed to be known to him" prior to the shooting, police said.

Police did not say if a suspect has been identified. The investigation is ongoing.

Nedd's family told NBC affiliate KPNX of Phoenix that he started working at the McDonald's just two months ago.

Two employees working at the time of the shooting said the gunman is another teenage employee, and the two had argued multiple times in the past, according to the news station.

Nedd was a senior at Betty H. Fairfax High School and played football there, his friends said.

"We are saddened by the tragic loss of our friend and colleague," the restaurant's owner said in a statement to NBC News.

"Our organization's biggest priority is always the safety and well-being of our employees and customers at our restaurants. We are fully cooperating with the police department and their investigation," the statement continued.

Anyone with information is asked to contact the Phoenix Police Department at 602-262-6151 or Silent Witness at 480-WITNESS / 480-TESTIGO.

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Arizona McDonald's employee, 16, fatally shot at work, police say

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A 16-year-old McDonald's employee in Arizona was fatally shot Wednesday in the restaurant's restroom, police said. Phoenix police responded to a call about a shooting at the restaurant at 51st Avenue and Baseline Road around 10:15 a.m. and found a victim suffering gunshot wounds.

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Oil prices are spiraling higher on supply concerns as the Russia-Ukraine crisis develops, and this could lead to demand destruction and an economic recession, according to an oil analyst.

"I'm concerned that we don't have enough oil at all here, and we need to go to $120 to $150 [per barrel], and then we get into economic destruction," said Paul Sankey of Sankey Research.

The firm sees oil trading between $100 and $150 per barrel until the situation in Ukraine is resolved, according to a research note.

International benchmark Brent crude futures jumped 3.24% to $116.59 per barrel, after earlier crossing the $119 level. U.S. crude futures climbed 3.26% to $114.21 per barrel.

Oil cargoes from Russia "simply aren't moving" following the invasion and news of sanctions, despite lower prices, Sankey told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Thursday.

"There's a major, physical, immediate outage that caught an already tight market with very low inventories," he said.

Everyone is worried that the elevated prices will be highly recessionary, destroy oil demand and slow down many economies, he added.

Despite the extreme oil price moves, Sankey suggested that it may have been the right call for OPEC and its allies to stick to their small production increase in April as planned.

"The scale of the emergency here is so severe that you probably don't want to be doing what the Western governments are doing, which is ... releasing emergency stocks, leaving yourself with even lower stocks," he said.

"By the same token, if Saudi and the UAE run down their spare capacity, well, you don't know what's going to happen next," he added.

Pointing to countries such as Libya and Iraq, Sankey said "any risky supply source might go missing," and oil prices could then leap to $200 per barrel.

OPEC+ is "probably just sitting on their hands here, to see how this plays out," he said.

Not everyone agrees.

"I think it's an enormous mistake," said David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies, an international energy advisory consultancy.

He singled out Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have spare capacity to pump more oil, and said they are punishing their primary future market - Asia.

"They're putting themselves on the wrong side of history, making themselves an unreliable supplier and reminding the world why we wanted to get off Middle East oil in the first place," he said.
- CNBC's Sam Meredith contributed to this report.

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'Economic destruction' may lie ahead as oil prices push higher, analyst says

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Oil prices are spiraling higher on supply concerns as the Russia-Ukraine crisis develops, and this could lead to demand destruction and an economic recession, according to an oil analyst. "I'm concerned that we don't have enough oil at all here, and we need to go to $120 to $150 [per barrel], and then we get into economic destruction," said Paul Sankey of Sankey Research.

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Western Nations are attacking Russia's Economy for some reason

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Western Nations are attacking Russia's Economy for some reason

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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/ukraine-analysts-think-western-sanctions-may-destroy-russias-economy.html

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LONDON - Western nations have responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a raft of sanctions intended to cripple the country's economy, and economists suggest it could work.

The G-7 (Group of Seven) major economies have imposed unprecedented punitive sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia along with widespread measures by the West against the country's oligarchs and officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Key Russian banks have been barred from the SWIFT international payments system, preventing them from secure international communication and ostracizing them from much of the global financial system.

Sanctions announced by the U.S. over the weekend also targeted the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

They also effectively prohibit western investors from doing business with the central bank and freeze its overseas assets, not least the vast foreign currency reserves the CBR has used as a buffer against the depreciation of local assets.

In the latest crackdown on Moscow, U.S. President Joe Biden announced Tuesday that Russian flights would be banned from U.S. airspace, following similar decisions by the EU and Canada.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Tuesday told a French radio station that the aim of the latest round of sanctions was to "cause the collapse of the Russian economy."

The Russian ruble has plunged since Russia invaded its neighbor last week and hit an all-time low of 109.55 against the dollar on Wednesday morning. Russian stocks have also seen massive sell-offs. Moscow stock markets were closed for a third consecutive day on Wednesday as authorities looked to stem the bleeding in local asset prices.

Meanwhile, the country's largest lender, Sberbank, exited its European operations and saw its London-listed shares fall more than 95% to trade at a penny. Shares of the country's other major players on the London Stock Exchange, including Rosneft and Lukoil, also collapsed.

The CBR on Monday more than doubled the country's key interest rate from 9.5% to 20% in a bid to curtail the fallout, but analysts believe the move to freeze its foreign exchange reserves is the key to blocking its ability to stabilize the Russian economy.

Swedish economist and former Atlantic Council senior fellow Anders Åslund tweeted on Wednesday that the western sanctions effectively "took down Russian finances in one day."

"The situation is likely to become worse than in 1998 because now there is no positive end. All Russia's capital markets appear to be wiped out & they are unlikely to return with anything less than profound reforms," he added.

Facing a 'serious financial crisis'

"While previously the CBR could rely on its reserves to smooth out any temporary volatility in the Ruble, it is no longer able to do so. Instead, it will need to adjust rates and other non-market measures to stabilize the Ruble," said Clemens Grafe, chief Russia economist at Goldman Sachs.

"Limiting Ruble volatility without adequate reserves is more difficult and the Ruble has already sold off, with implications for inflation and rates."

Goldman Sachs has raised its end-of-year forecast for Russian inflation to 17% year-on-year from a previous projection of 5%, with risks skewed to the upside given that the ruble could sell off further, or the CBR may be forced to hike rates further to maintain stability.

Economic growth is also expected to take a severe hit, and the Wall Street giant cut its 2022 GDP (gross domestic product) forecast from a 2% expansion to a 7% contraction year-on-year, though Grafe acknowledged uncertainty surrounding these figures.

"Financial conditions have tightened to a similar level to 2014 (Russia's annexation of Crimea), and hence we think domestic demand will contract by 10% [year-on-year] or slightly more," Grafe said.

"While exports are, in principle, not significantly restricted by the sanctions so far, we expect them to contract by 5%yoy because of the physical disruption of exports through the Black Sea ports, which are instrumental for dry bulk exports, and the risk of sanctions reducing other exports."

This scale of decline is similar to the 7.5% fall during the 2008/9 financial crisis and the 6.8% contraction during Russia's financial crisis in 1998.

"The ratcheting up of Western sanctions, alongside a tightening of financial conditions and the prospect of a banking crisis, mean that Russia's economy is likely to experience a sharp contraction this year," Liam Peach, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note Tuesday.

Although the outlook remains highly uncertain, Capital Economics' baseline forecast is for a 5% contraction in Russian GDP in 2022 compared to its previous forecast for 2.5% growth, and for annual inflation to reach 15% this summer.

Peach suggested that a worst-case scenario for Russia in terms of international sanctions would involve restrictions on the flow of oil and gas, which represents about half of all goods exports and a third of government revenues.

"Restricting these would also choke off a key source of dollar incomes for energy companies that have FX debts and perhaps cause a much more significant financial crisis in Russia," he added.

Depth of recession depends on exports, China

Steven Bell, chief economist at BMO Global Asset Management, said Russia is now facing a "serious financial crisis," with the role of China becoming ever more important to Moscow due to its demand for raw materials and energy.

"Russia has also moved a large portion of their foreign exchange reserves into the Chinese currency and switched their payment systems to Chinese banks. China may hold the key to Russia's ability to sustain the conflict," Bell added.

As yet, there are no sanctions on Russian exports, and SWIFT exclusions are targeted at specific banks to allow export payments to continue being processed. Goldman Sachs' Grafe suggested that this might not be the case much longer.

"The willingness of the G7 to incur costs is rising and it might ultimately imply that restricting Russian exports and accepting higher commodity prices could become politically feasible," Grafe said.

A major constraint for Russia is its inability to use its foreign exchange reserves to underwrite the ruble, but Grafe suggested this could be overcome by changing the ruble's reference currency to the Chinese yuan from the U.S. dollar.

"This would also allow the CBR and the Ministry of Finance to adhere to their fiscal rule that channels the excess fiscal savings due to higher oil prices into foreign assets," he said.

However, creating a cross-currency market would need full cooperation from Beijing, which Goldman Sachs sees as unlikely given the risk to China of secondary sanctions for helping Russia sidestep western sanctions.

China's banking regulator on Wednesday said the country opposes and will not join financial sanctions against Russia. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has thus far refused to call the attack on Ukraine an invasion, instead promoting diplomacy and negotiations.

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The West is trying to destroy Russia's economy. And analysts think it could succeed

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LONDON - Western nations have responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a raft of sanctions intended to cripple the country's economy, and economists suggest it could work. The G-7 (Group of Seven) major economies have imposed unprecedented punitive sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia along with widespread measures by the West against the country's oligarchs and officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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DANVILLE, CA - Danville Patch asked our Facebook page members "If you could bring back one local business that closed in town (it doesn't matter how long ago), which would it be?"

The question got a lot of attention and brought on nostalgic feelings for many of our readers. There were a handful of favorites listed but we saw a few popular repeats.

Elegant Clutter, Jules and Bon Appetite topped the list.

"We got some amazing Christmas stuff at Elegant Clutter. I always loved how they decorated that place," one follower said.

Breakfast lovers miss Prickly Pear Cantina. One follower even deemed the restaurant as having "the best breakfast around!"

Patch reported on the cantina closing in 2020. The owner said California's harsh business climate was one of the reasons for closing.

Readers also mentioned the French bistro that was in Blackhawk Plaza and Flakey Jakes as local favorites.

Take a look at the other favorites Danville misses.

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Favorite Danville Businesses That Have Closed

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DANVILLE, CA - Danville Patch asked our Facebook page members "If you could bring back one local business that closed in town (it doesn't matter how long ago), which would it be?" The question got a lot of attention and brought on nostalgic feelings for many of our readers.

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- Audrey M

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In her latest podcast episode, Emma Chamberlain announced that she had taken a step back from uploading videos on YouTube. The content creator extensively detailed the burnout she has faced since starting her career online. Following her latest announcement, her fans have shown endless support and have encouraged her to take a break from the video-sharing platform.

In Anything Goes with Emma Chamberlain's latest episode titled the truth about youtube, the 20-year-old shared her opinion on the video-sharing platform and her job as a YouTuber. She said during the podcast:

"I started to feel really stressed out that this is my job. I don't understand how I ended up here in the first place. So I don't know how I'm supposed to continue it successfully because I don't even know how I got here!"

The YouTuber deliberated on why people watch videos on YouTube. At one point, she exclaimed:

"I don't understand the concept behind YouTube! I don't get what people like about it. I don't understand how this is a job that people have nowadays."

Emma Chamberlain announces break from YouTube

The YouTube algorithm waits for no one. When a content creator takes longer breaks from uploading videos on the platform, they do not get recommended enough, leading to the loss of views. Speaking about the same, Emma Chamberlain said:

"If I stopped uploading people aren't going to even care anymore. So I'm trying to figure out how I can do YouTube in a sustainable way."

Chamberlain shared that having to upload on a regular schedule would "destroy" her "mentally in the quickest way possible."

She announced:

"I got to such a dark place in this hamster wheel of being a YouTuber that I said, you know what, I can't do this at all. I need to step back completely. I need to step back and heal from the years and years of burnout and give myself weeks, months, years if I need to to figure out if its something that I can do in a healthy way."

The influencer revealed that she has not been active on the video-sharing platform for the last two months and has been focusing on her podcast and her coffee company Chamberlain Coffee alone. She also shared that she is focusing on herself and exploring different hobbies.

Following her YouTube hiatus, she stated that she was "in a better state mentally" than she has ever been in the past four years.

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Did Emma Chamberlain quit YouTube? Influencer shares podcast and coffee company plans

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In her latest podcast episode, Emma Chamberlain announced that she had taken a step back from uploading videos on YouTube. The content creator extensively detailed the burnout she has faced since starting her career online. Following her latest announcement, her fans have shown endless support and have encouraged her to take a break from the video-sharing platform.

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-Logan White

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E.V. operations will focus on technology and growth while the traditional business continues to chase profits. "You can't have people work on both at the same time," the chief executive said.

An electric Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck being assembled in Dearborn, Mich., in January. Credit... Brittany Greeson for The New York Times

Ford Motor has decided the best way to make the transition to electric vehicles is to transform itself first.

On Wednesday, the automaker said it had reorganized its auto operations into two distinct businesses - one that makes its gasoline-powered vehicles and focuses on maximizing profits and another that develops and ramps up production of electric models and aims for rapid growth.

Ford's chief executive, Jim Farley, said in an interview that the two businesses required different skills and mind-sets that would clash and hinder each area if they remained parts of one organization. "You can't be successful and beat Tesla that way," he said.

Sales of battery-powered cars are rising rapidly, a trend that Mr. Farley and other auto executives see as the industry's biggest disruption since Henry Ford introduced mass production and the Model T in 1908. Ford, General Motors, Toyota, Volkswagen and other traditional manufacturers are spending tens of billions of dollars to field new models, build battery plants and develop new technologies that Tesla has pioneered, such as advanced driver-assist systems and over-the-air software updates.

Mr. Farley said Ford would spend $50 billion on electric vehicles between 2022 and 2026. It previously planned to spend $30 billion in the five years ending in 2025. It plans to spend $5 billion on E.V.s this year, double the 2021 total.

The company's move was welcomed by Wall Street investors, who have placed a huge premium on the shares of Tesla and other electric carmakers over the last two years. Ford's stock price closed on Wednesday up about 8 percent.

This spring, Ford is supposed to start full production of an electric version of its F-150 pickup truck and has taken reservations for more than 150,000 of them. It is also building two battery plants in Kentucky, and a third battery plant and an electric truck factory in Tennessee.

Separately on Wednesday, Stellantis outlined a long-term strategic plan that calls for rapid introductions of new electric vehicles. The company, which was formed a year ago from the merger of Fiat Chrysler and the French automaker Peugeot, said that it would introduce 25 E.V.s in the United States by 2030, and that all new models in Europe would be electric by that time. It plans to build two battery plants in the United States.

G.M. has similar plans. It is building two battery plants, and aims to phase out internal-combustion models by 2035.

Ford's reorganization is one of the most sweeping taken by a traditional automaker in preparation for the transition to electric vehicles. Mr. Farley said the plan had come together after he and other top Ford executives noticed stark differences in the two business areas.

In making gas-powered vehicles, Ford must focus on reducing costs and generating the profits it needs to fund its E.V. plans. Over the next four years, Ford aims to trim costs for its internal-combustion models by $3 billion, with some cuts coming through job reductions, Mr. Farley said.

The electric business, in contrast, will have to spend heavily to develop software and technologies and to ramp up production quickly to achieve economies of scale. Ford aims to produce two million electric vehicles a year by 2026.

"For Ford to win against the new players and the other manufacturers, we have to focus more than we do today," Mr. Farley said. "You can't have people work on both at the same time."

The E.V. group will be known as Ford Model e. Mr. Farley will serve as its president. Doug Field, a former Apple and Tesla executive hired by Ford in September, will lead its vehicle, software and digital systems development.

The internal-combustion business, known as Ford Blue, will be led by Kumar Galhotra, who was president of Ford's North American operations.

Ford plans to begin breaking out the profits and losses of the two groups in 2023, and expects the electric business to become profitable within four years. Mr. Farley said the group would most likely have 2,000 to 5,000 employees. In addition to developing electric models, it will engineer new types of assembly lines to build them and manage Ford's sourcing of key components like motors and inverters and raw materials such as lithium and rare earth metals.

Mr. Farley said he envisioned the two groups working closely together. Ford Model e will use body engineering, stamping, and components like seats and steering systems that the internal-combustion group develops. The E.V. unit will produce software and digital components that will be incorporated into traditional gasoline vehicles made by Ford Blue.

Mr. Farley said Ford had decided against spinning off the E.V. business because it would hinder the ability of the two groups to cooperate. "They would come to see each other as competitors, and the cooperation would stop," he said.

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Ford Splits Into Electric and Gas Divisions to Speed Up Transition

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E.V. operations will focus on technology and growth while the traditional business continues to chase profits. "You can't have people work on both at the same time," the chief executive said. Ford Motor has decided the best way to make the transition to electric vehicles is to transform itself first.