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Post #10 Critical Thinking Process Responses

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Post #10 Critical Thinking Process Responses

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I chose to evaluate the story of Karen Clark having a premonition that helped save her life.

Define problem (extraordinary claim):
Can dreams or premonitions warn you of things to come in the real world?

Gather Information:
The interview was conducted by the Oprah Winfrey Network. It features Karen Clark, a religious person who claims that a reoccurring dream was a premonition of her death and, by praying, god saved her from a fatal accident.

Evaluate Evidence:
The OWN is a very popular media outlet, but they are purely motivated by monetary gain so I don't think it's a very credible source. There is no proof, nor can there be any proof of what Karen claims, since it all happened inside her own head. There was no scientific method applied and the results could not be reproduced.

Recognize Assumptions, Emotions, Biases:
Karen believes in the power of prayer, so her assumption is that her praying is what actually saved her. She has a strong emotional connection to what happened, since the premonition she had involved her very own death. She's clearly a very religious person, so she's biased towards a religious solution to any question.

Synthesize Evidence, Identify Alternatives:
Alternative 1: The law of big numbers is at play. The amount of any given person dreaming about a car crash, and then in turn driving on the type of road she described is very high.

Alternative 2: She had a recurring nightmare of dying in a car crash, which is not uncommon, so she instinctively drove more safely when such a scenario came up in real life. Thus making the crash that did happen, less dangerous.

Alternative solution 3: The power of prayers to God saved her life.

Select Best Alternative:
The law of big numbers explains what happened. Premonitions and God like interventions do no exist.

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Made by Brendan Hodge, working individually

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Definition:
The act of searching for or recalling only information that applies to the opinion or stance you already have. While ignoring all other evidence.

Connection:
This video showcases secret footage shot about anti vaxxers, who's entire stance on vaccines is built on misinformation and confirmation bias. These people are searching specific terms that will show results of what they already believe, as well as joining online groups dedicated to their stance on vaccines. Creating an echo chamber that reaffirms their incorrect opinion.

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Definition:
Cosmetic products or supplements that claim that their product is better for you simply because it is made with "all natural" ingredients. Even though some natural ingredients can be harmful

Connection:
This commercial for Dr. Squatch natural soap for men, show cases the all natural red flag. It makes the claim that what most soaps are made of is bad for you, while the natural ingredients in their soaps are in fact much better for your skin. They do this without showing any scientific evidence to back it up. Although it is presented in a parody format, the commercial also touches on the appeal to authority by the spokesman putting on a lab coat and standing beside a bunch of beakers. as well as proof by verbosity, when the spokesman lists off a bunch of supposedly harmful chemicals that most people have never heard of, to try to illicit a reaction of disgust.

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Post #4 Red Flag: Suppression by Authorities

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Post #4 Red Flag: Suppression by Authorities

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Definition:
The conspiracy theory that government or medical authorities suppress knowledge about new drugs or technology for the purposes of profit.

Connection:
This article talks about, and debunks, the conspiracy theory that "Big Pharma" has been suppressing the cure for cancer and keeping it secret. People that believe this theory think that Big Pharma makes more money by keeping people sick than it does curing people, which is in fact not true. Through critical thinking, the article explains that an overall cure for cancer would in fact make massive profits, so they would have no reason to hide or suppress it.

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One survey suggests that over a quarter of Americans believe this to be absolutely true, while a further 1 in 7 believe that it might be true.

Could there really be a big conspiracy? Is it possible that pharmaceutical companies are hiding the cure for cancer to make a profit from cancer drugs?

We want to shed some light on the issue and explain why it's simply not true - there is no 'hidden cancer cure'.

Because we already know we're not looking for a single cure for cancer.

Cancer is a name for a group of over 200 distinct diseases. Types of cancer vary considerably in their causes and the way in which they grow and spread - the sheer complexity of cancer makes a single cure incredibly unlikely.

We may not find a single cure, but we do have the tools and treatments to cure many people already. Cancer survival rates have doubled in the last 40 years and continue to improve. Half of all people diagnosed with cancer in the UK in 2019 will survive their disease for 10 years or longer. That's astonishing progress - and it's been achieved by cancer research that has been carried out over years.

Because it wouldn't be profitable for 'Big Pharma' to hide a cure for cancer.

Apart from the scientific improbability of a universal cancer cure, it wouldn't make a whole lot of economic sense to hide a cure, either. Even if a potential silver bullet existed, it would take decades to test it on each type and stage of cancer. This kind of testing requires vast amounts of money.

What would the benefit of hiding a cure be? Big pharmaceutical companies invest billions in the development of new drugs. If one of them had struck gold and found a magic bullet, they'd want to claim those expenses back.

Because it wouldn't be possible to keep something like a cure for cancer secret.

The sheer scale of the operation would be mind-boggling. Think of the huge amount of people involved in the research and manufacturing of the drug. Could that number of people really keep such a secret?

Dr Robert Grimes published a great paper in which he studied the mathematical likelihood of conspiracy theories. He created a model using real uncovered medical conspiracies to estimate how long it would take for something like this to be uncovered, depending on the amount of people involved.

Dr Grimes estimated that, if only the biggest pharmaceutical companies were involved in the conspiracy, there would still be around 714,000 people who knew something. And with that many people involved; his calculations show that it would only take around 3.17 years for someone to blab.

Because cancer researchers want to create new treatments that help people.

A lot of people believe in a 'Big Pharma' conspiracy because the companies involved are exactly that - companies that exist to make money for their shareholders. But these companies aren't faceless, they're made up of people. And whether people are rich, famous or a board member of a pharmaceutical company, cancer doesn't care, it affects everyone.

Everyone knows somebody that has been affected by the disease - it doesn't make sense that some of those people would be willing to risk their lives and the lives of their loved ones by hiding new cures.

Because we are all human and we all have the same goal.

At Worldwide Cancer Research, we are surrounded by colleagues, scientists, doctors, patients and supporters who are dedicated to their quests to conquer cancer.

Suggesting that there's some kind of conspiracy to make money by holding back a lifesaving cure for cancer insults the people who contribute every day to finding new ways to prevent, diagnose and treat the disease.

One day we will stop the suffering caused by cancer.

Not because of a miracle drug, or because there's a secret cure out there already, but because hundreds of thousands of people are working together every day, and all over the world, to find new cures.

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Could somebody be hiding the cure for cancer?

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One survey suggests that over a quarter of Americans believe this to be absolutely true, while a further 1 in 7 believe that it might be true. Could there really be a big conspiracy? Is it possible that pharmaceutical companies are hiding the cure for cancer to make a profit from cancer drugs?

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Definition:
Claiming that some intangible force is responsible for physical change in the real world. Often associated with terms like mystical energy, life force, chakras ect.

Connection:
In the video above, a man talks about the mystical energy and healing properties associated with Kundalini Yoga. Claiming that there are 114 chakras to unlock, and that this yoga is the path to do so. The scientific method shows zero evidence of this being true. There are also many red herrings within his speech, while he talks in generalities about life experiences and "being ready" for things.

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Kundalini Yoga: Awakening the Shakti Within

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Post #6 Red Flag: Confusion of Correlation with Causation

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Post #6 Red Flag: Confusion of Correlation with Causation

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Definition:
The confusion of correlation and causation happens when a person believes that one thing or action is the cause for another thing or action. The two may be correlated, but not necessarily the cause of the other.

Example:
Violent movies and video games create violent children. While the two are correlated, the violent media may not be causing the violent children. It may be that violent children just happen to play more violent video games.

Connection:
The video above shows Dee Snider, the lead singer of metal man Twisted Sister, speaking at a PMRC senate hearing in the 1980s. This was happening because parents were all up in arms about the heavy metal music their kids were listening to. They thought the lyrical content in the music, was going to warp their kids minds and get them to do terrible things that they normally wouldn't do. This is a classic confusion of correlation and causation. There is no actual proof that the music itself is the cause for bad behaviour. It is in fact more likely that people who already exhibit this bad behaviour, simply identify with those so called inappropriate lyrics because they already feel that way. These incorrect opinions of parents were only cemented when people of government and news networks ran with the story, tying those parents in to the appeal to authority.

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Post #7 Reason for Belief: Patternicity (photo)

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Post #7 Reason for Belief: Patternicity (photo)

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Definition:
The phenomenon of people seeing patterns and shapes, and therefore assigning meaning, to things that have nothing to do with whatever pattern or shape a person is seeing in an object.

Connection:
The photo above shows just how easily your brain finds recognizable shapes within any given object. The brains need to search for faces (otherwise known as Face Pareidolia) is an evolutionary function evolved to help us discern danger and emotions to survive. This reason for belief can be extremely dangerous, as it can easily lead to spread of misinformation. People could also assign agenticity to random objects, which we all know from experience can sometimes lead to violence because of ideological views, or even war.

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Post #8 Reason for Belief: Emotional Connection

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Post #8 Reason for Belief: Emotional Connection

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Definition:
The belief in something paranormal or pseudoscience related caused by a personal emotional experience. Like a death in your family for example.

Connection:
The video above depicts a clip from a show called Long Island Medium. This woman preys on innocent people by giving them "readings", which enable them to communicate with their lost loved ones, which unapologetically takes advantage of peoples emotional connection to their loved ones for monetary profit. The appeal to authority is also present in this specific case, this woman is probably the most famous medium in America at this point. Her celebrity status, and all the production involved, probably further convince people that the medium is legitimate. I have an especially large sore spot for people that take advantage of others by posing as mediums and convincing them their loved ones are talking to them. I personally find it disgusting, though that might be my own emotional connection to the content that makes me feel that way.

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Remembering Her Mother's Heroic Act on 9/11 | Long Island Medium: In Memory of 9/11

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Definition:
Believing in something that is scientifically and factually untrue, because the false explanation is much more simple to understand.

Connection:
The video above shows a woman who claims she had a premonition about her death and, through prayer, was saved from a fatal accident by God. The simplicity of just believing it was a sign from god, is much simpler than understanding the law of big numbers, as well as all the science and physics that would have been behind her survival of the car crash she was in. Can it be proven in any way that her vision saved her?

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The Power of a Premonition | Miracle Detectives | The Oprah Winfrey Network