# data[].attributes.body
According to the 2023 New York Times article, climate change and rising temperatures have devastated much of the land within the Tigris-Euphrates river basin. In many areas, with rainfall becoming more erratic, little water remains. It is said that the availability of water is unsustainable for the coming years and even months for some parts of the Middle East.

The drop in river flows is only expected to worsen as the effects of climate change progress. The Center for Strategic and International Studies reports that the Euphrates River is at risk of completely drying up due to climate change. It has been reported this could occur as early as 2040.

(Arvanita, et al. 2023)

(Rubin 2023)

# data[].attributes.body
The Tigris and Euphrates rivers originate from the Taurus mountains of Turkey where they are fed from snow and rain precipitation. As the water flows down from the mountain range, it diverges and makes its way to the plains of Syria and Iraq before heading into the Persian Gulf. Each of these countries, as well as Iran, have tributaries that contribute to the river basin; however, Turkey is the primary contributor (~58%).

As reported in 2016 by a journal article from Ohio State, the basin of the river system covers nearly 35,000 square kilometers or 13,700 square miles.

The Tigris River has an average annual discharge of 52 billion cubic meters, and the Euphrates River has an average annual discharge of 32 billion cubic meters.

(Gibson 2022)

(Kibaroglu, et al. 2016)

# data[].attributes.attachment_caption
Source: SpringerNature via WSU Libraries 

# data[].attributes.body
Tigris Euphrates Basin Boundary, Major Rivers, and Waterbodies

# data[].attributes.body
This presentation has addressed a number of key issues that the Tigris-Euphrates river basin has and continues to experience. To better illustrate the various challenges, a transboundary causal loop diagram is provided below. The diagram helps to identify the many connection points, their polarity, as well as the smaller feedback loops contained within.

# data[].attributes.body
As highlighted in a journal article in SpringerNature, precipitation in the region has fluctuated greatly and the area has experienced more drought and water scarcity issues due to climate change and extreme temperatures. To compound the problem is a growing population, poor water management, and a tense conflict that exists among the countries where resources are ineffectively shared and utilized.

These challenges directly impact the availability of water both present day and in the years to come. Remarkably, these rivers once sustained civilizations, but are now said to be suffering a slow death.

Another problem for the basin is the quality of available water in many of the villages. Excessive drought and poor irrigation practices, including the use of synthetic fertilizers, have caused the salinity levels in the groundwater to spike. This has made the water undrinkable for many who rely on it.

In some places, the water is deemed unusable for livestock and agriculture, and even washing dishes and clothes.

(Daggupati, et al. 2017)

(Rubin 2023)

# data[].attributes.body
The Tigris-Euphrates River Basin is a river system located in Mesopotamia, which is referred to as the cradle of human civilization. Present day, this area is known as the Middle East.

This watershed, which touches Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, has been critical to the surrounding area because it has provided food and water to the region's communities, as well as supported trade, transportation, and energy.

The river basin also plays a vital role in sustaining biodiversity and the river's ecosystem and has important cultural and historical significance.

# data[].attributes.body
Tigris Euphrates River Basin Causal Loop Diagram

# data[].attributes.body
This forecast has the potential to be catastrophic with further implications to ecosystems, personal and domestic water use, agriculture, energy and electricity infrastructure, and so on.

Another important issue to mention is how the decreasing water supply implicates sanitation and hygiene, increasing the risk of disease due to water contamination. For example, a lack of clean water gives rise to highly contagious diseases such as cholera which can be treated simply through effective hydration. This type of scenario would also put stress on healthcare and emergency responsiveness, creating dire consequences for many.

(Arvanita, et al. 2023)

(Rubin 2023)

# data[].attributes.body
The river basin is an essential part of food security for the region as it its water irrigates crops and supports local farms and fisheries. Sufficient water also is important in supporting the biodiversity of plants and wildlife but also within the soil to grow nutritious food.

# data[].attributes.body
It is evident that the issue of the Tigris-Euphrates watershed is a complex one. There are a number of very serious challenges that have been going on for some time, and continue to worsen.

The damage that has been done is likely to not be undone within this century, perhaps even the next. However, several things could potentially help ease the burden and move the nations toward a more harmonious and equitable future.

# data[].attributes.body
As is evident from the above illustration, this is a reinforcing feedback loop, meaning the individual factors influence and inform the complexity and extent of the larger issue(s).

This is important to understand in order to formulate a systems thinking approach, understand the bigger picture, and identify possible solutions.

# data[].attributes.body
Millions of people rely on the Tigris-Euphrates river basin. Yet as water demands continue to rise, availability is quickly plummeting. In addition to personal and domestic use, water is required for many important activities such as irrigation for agriculture, manufacturing and production, hydropower energy generation, transportation, and recreation.

Because of these uses, water is inextricably linked to livelihood. Without it, many cannot make a means to survive in the area. In fact, according to a 2023 New York Times article, each year, thousands of people from various parts of the basin are displaced or have been forced to leave their homes in search of better economic and living conditions.

(Kibaroglu, et al. 2016)

(Rubin 2023)

# data[].attributes.body
In the region surrounding the rivers, the land has many uses. Beyond space for infrastructure, urban, and residential purposes, one of the most prominent uses is agriculture and food production such as rice, wheat, barley, corn, sugar beets, date palms, millet, tobacco, fruits, olives, and sorghum.

Manufacturing is another major land use that produces a variety of goods for the region. This includes textiles, electronics, chemicals, construction materials, machinery, and steel.

Both agriculture and manufacturing require a large and continuous amount of water to support their processes. This puts further strain on the already fragile basin.

(Gibson, et al. 2022)

(Kibaroglu, et al. 2016)

# data[].attributes.body
The nations who depend on the Tigris-Euphrates river basin were once unified in their stance of "security, provision of water supply and sanitation, food, and energy." However, as they further developed and their populations rose, competition for water intensified dramatically.

This competition prompted some authorities to implement nationalistic reforms, which resulted in hoarding or withholding resources. The emergence of large-scale water developments and infrastructures furthered the conflict. Some have even weaponized the river's supply against neighboring nations.

One example of this type of approach is Turkey's aggressive construction of dams and hydropower projects which have reduced Iraq's water supply by nearly 80% over the past four decades. This has put a chokehold on Iraq's water supply, which is now rigorously rationed.

These disputes and the lack of transnational water cooperation and management throw the river basin, and its inhabitants, into further peril.

(Chibani 2023)

# data[].attributes.body
The Tigris-Euphrates ecosystem has been the foundation of the region's biological diversity and has supported the areas' cultural resources, human health, and economic productivity for centuries. However, this very ecosystem is under attack and, over the years, has become deeply impacted by climate change, hydrological systems, pollution, and unsustainable practices and policies.

In a paper published by the Mesopotamia Water Forum in 2019, the forum recorded 117 insect species, 12 amphibians, 100 freshwater and marine fish, 251 birds, and 6 mammal species. Of these listed, many are under threat or have already been classified as a threatened species.

The declining populations of species in this region are notable given how the diversity of wildlife contributes to the basin's ecosystem. However, the habitat is no longer a "friendly" one, as the quality and quantity of the water make it unlivable for many to thrive.

(Bachman, et al. 2019)

# data[].attributes.body
Akça, E., Andrews, S. W., Anusha, B. N., Aragüés, R., Askri, B., Cañedo-Argüelles, M., Chang, X., Corwin, D. L., Cote, C. M., Devkota, K. P., Hopmans, J. W., Jacques, D., Llamosas, C., Malash, N., Manasa, M. R. K., Melikoglu, M., Ren, D., Shahrokhnia, H., Abbas, A. H., … Chen, W.-B. (2022, October 28). Effects of upstream activities of Tigris-Euphrates river basin on water and soil resources of Shatt al-Arab border river. Science of The Total Environment. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722068516

Arvanita, E., Boti, M., Eleftheroglou, D., & Krasanaki, M. (2023, February 27). The future of the Euphrates River. The Future of the Euphrates River. https://features.csis.org/the-future-of-the-Euphrates-River/#:~:text=The%20Euphrates%20River%20is%20at,could%20be%20dry%20by%202040.

Bachmann, A., Tice, V., Ali Al-Obeidi, L., & Tuba Kilıç, D. (2019). Tigris-Euphrates River Ecosystem: A status report. https://www.savethetigris.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Paper-Challenge-C-Ecosystem-FINAL-to-be-published-1.pdf

Chibani, A. (2023, May 31). Water politics in the Tgris-Euphrates basin. Arab Center Washington DC. https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/water-politics-in-the-tigris-euphrates-basin/#:~:text=The%20Water%2DEnergy%2DFood%20Nexus%20along%20the%20Tigris%20and%20Euphrates&text=The%20rivers’%20waters%20have%20been,collective%20punishment%20on%20certain%20populations

Daggupati, P., Srinivasan, R., Ahmadi, M., & Verma, D. (2017, January 5). Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and stream flow variations in Tigris-Euphrates River basin - environmental monitoring and assessment. SpringerLink. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10661-016-5752-y

Gibson, M., et al. (2022, October 3). Tigris-Euphrates river system. Encyclopædia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/place/Tigris-Euphrates-river-system

Kibaroglu, A., Rifai, F., Zakzok, E., Schmandt, J., Oueidat, H., Payind, A., & Melinda McClimans, E. (2016). The Tigris and Euphrates River Basins. EuphratesTigris Water Issues An Introduction. https://ohiostate.pressbooks.pub/etwr/front-matter/introduction/#:~:text=The%20Tigris%2DEuphrates%20river%20basin,banks%20of%20the%20aforementioned%20rivers.

Kibaroglu, A. (2015, July 22). Transboundary water governance in the Euphrates Tigris River Basin. E-International Relations. https://www.e-ir.info/2015/07/22/transboundary-water-governance-in-the-euphrates-tigris-river-basin/#google_vignette

Rubin, A. J., & Denton, B. (2023). A climate warning from the cradle of Civilization. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/29/world/middleeast/iraq-water-crisis-desertification.html?auth=login-google1tap&login=google1tap

# data[].attributes.body
Source: Arab Weekly

# data[].attributes.body
Water scarcity, water quality, and poor management of resources have resulted in a steady decline in fish populations and species. For the remaining fish, overharvesting has been a problem as competition for food and economic security have risen.

In the paper published by the Mesopotamia Water Forum, it was reported that illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing was becoming increasingly problematic, and regional experts had warned that natural resources would continue to be depleted if new policies and a more cooperative framework were not implemented to ensure sustainability.

(Bachman 2019)

# data[].attributes.body
One of the most important changes to be prioritized is to implement efficient and equitable water management practices to optimize existing usage across the basin. This would include replacing outdated and wasteful irrigation practices that have plagued the region for hundreds of years.

Another important solution is to create a treaty or comprehensive riparian agreement that works to de-escalate conflict, improve cooperation, and support the negotiation of new transboundary solutions. With this, it would mean transparency around infrastructure use and development, and possible de-construction of previous dams that are monopolizing water flow.

Ecosystem restoration and conservation initiatives are also essential in preserving the land and enabling habitable environments for plants and wildlife, while driving down land degradation and overharvesting. As part of this, community education and involvement would be key, as well as partnering with local farmers and fishermen to support more sustainable practices.

Each of these changes could help to promote social responsibility, improve economic vitality, and create environmental sustainability for the river basin and surrounding areas. These things are imperative for the future of the cradle of human civilization.