# data[].attributes.body
Democrats

https://democrats.org/

Republicans

https://www.gop.com/

Green

http://www.gp.org/

Illinois Secretary of State

Jesse White

https://www.cyberdriveillinois.com/

# data[].attributes.body
Democrats

https://democrats.org/

Republicans

https://www.gop.com/

Libertarians

https://www.lp.org/

Texas Secretary of State

Rolando B. Pablos

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/

# data[].attributes.body
https://lrl.texas.gov/collections/journals/journals.cfm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-ted-cruz-will-defeat-beto-orourke-in-this-texas-senate-race-2018-10-05

https://www.wsj.com/articles/beto-orourke-draws-big-crowds-in-texas-but-his-voters-tend-not-to-vote-1538731801

# data[].attributes.body
Ted Cruz

https://www.tedcruz.org/

Beto O'rourke

https://betofortexas.com/

Neal M. Dikeman

https://www.nealdikeman.com/

# data[].attributes.body
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/10/29/beto-orourke-closes-ted-cruz-still-holds-narrow-lead-texas-senate-race

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/10/06/the-texas-senate-race-is-the-most-interesting-contest-of-2018

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/4/18061696/texas-early-voting-beto-orourke-ted-cruz

# data[].attributes.body
“Polls.” RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/tx/texas_senate_cruz_vs_orourke-6310.html.

“Texas Secretary of State.” Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-Current), www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml.

“United States Senate Election in Texas, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018.

“Voter Registration in Illinois.” DMV.ORG, www.dmv.org/il-illinois/voter-registration.php.

# data[].attributes.body
https://www.politifact.com/illinois/statements/2018/oct/05/mike-bost/illinois-race-congress-mike-bost-makes-head-scratc/

https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois%27_12th_Congressional_District_election_(March_20,_2018_Democratic_primary)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/illinois/12/

# data[].attributes.body
Mike Bost

http://bostforcongress.com/

Brendan Kelly

https://brendan4southernil.com/

Randy Auxier

https://randyforcongress.org/

# data[].attributes.body
https://www.dailyherald.com/article/20181022/news/310229934/

https://thesouthern.com/opinion/editorial/voice-of-the-southern-as-th-district-congressman-bost-won/article_ad3c35cf-52a2-59ba-ab22-7672376974cf.html

https://thesouthern.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/several-southern-illinois-iea-members-sign-letter-denouncing-union-s/article_965d24d1-3863-56cd-8599-2d69ec20693d.html

# data[].attributes.body
“Illinois' 12th Congressional District.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Illinois'_12th_Congressional_District.

“Illinois' 12th Congressional District.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Illinois'_12th_Congressional_District#District_analysis.

DataDhrumil. “Illinois 12th District U.S. House Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 4 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/illinois/12/.In-text CitationCheck for GrammarCheck for Plagiarism

“Polling the 2018 Midterm Elections in Real Time.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 6 Sept. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share.In-text CitationCheck for GrammarCheck for Plagiarism

# data[].attributes.body
3 public opinion polls:

1) Emerson (781 LV, 3.7 MoE, Cruz +3)

2) New York Times/Siena (800 LV, 3.6 MoE. Cruz +8)

3) CNN (716 LV, 4.5 MoE, Cruz +7)

Interest groups:

Cruz: Woodforest Financial Group, Senate Conservatives Fund, NorPAC, Sullivan & Cromwell, Lockheed Martin, Berkshire Hathaway, Delta Airlines

O’Rourke: University of Texas, Alphabet Inc., University of California, Apple, AT&T, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon

Texas voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

Endorsements:

Cruz: President Donald Trump

O’Rourke: Houston Chronicle, The Dallas Morning News, J Street PAC, National Education Association

Campaign Spending

last reported

Cruz:  $33,896,025

O'Rourke:  $59,162,350

Dikeman: $25,220

# data[].attributes.body
Republican

Incumbent

Won primary with 85.3% of votes (March 6, 2018)

Elected to Texas Senate (2012)

Former: law clerk to U.S. Chief Justice William Rehnquist, associate D.A. to the Department of Justice, director of the Office of Policy Planning for the FTC, Solicitor General of Texas (2003-2008)

# data[].attributes.body
Gender: 50.4% female, 50.6% male

Race: 74.9% white, 11.9% black, 4.2% Asian

High school graduation rate: 81.9%

College graduation rate: 27.6%

Median household income: $53, 207

Persons below poverty level: 19.9%

# data[].attributes.body
Clinton won the state of Illinois

Trump won the  Illinois 12th district

Campaign Spending

last reported 10-17-18

Bost: $2,371,973

Kelly: $3,031,985

Auxier: $12,774

Endorsements for Bost

A Brotherhood Aimed Toward Education; A.B.A.T.E. of Illinois

American Federation of Government Employees

Campaign for Working Families

Illinois Federation for Right to Life

National Rifle Association

Republican Main Street Partnership

Endorsements for Kelly

Blue Dog Coalition

Communications Workers of America

Council for a Livable World

End Citizens United

Illinois AFL-CIO

Illinois Sierra Club

League of Conservation Voters

National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare

New Democrat Coalition

Planned Parenthood Action Fund

Planned Parenthood Illinois Action

Sierra Club

United Auto Workers

VoteVets.org

Endorsements for Auxier

Independent Voters of Illinois

NY Times

Oct. 18-22, 2018

48% Republican, 39% Democrat, 11% Undecided

Sample size 502 people

Margin of error: Bost +9

ABC News (Global Strategy Group)

July 26-30, 2018

50% Republican, 41% Democrat, 9% Undecided

Sample size 400 people

Margin of error: Bost +9

ABC News (DCCC)

Sept. 26-27, 2018

46% Republican, 44% Democrat, 10% Undecided

Sample size 574 people

Margin of error: Bost +2

# data[].attributes.body
Race:79% White, 17.1% Black, 1.1% Asian

48.9% Male, 51.1% Female

Unemployment: 9.7%

Median household income:$42,181

High school graduation rate: 88.4%

College graduation rate 20.9%

Voter turnout 2016: 313,002/713,289

# data[].attributes.body
Online registration is allowed

Must register 27 days before the election

Can vote by mail

Must have 2 forms of ID, one having a photo and one having your current address

Early voting is allowed

# data[].attributes.body
Mike Bost will win the Illinois 12th congressional district. He will win this district because our district is 79% white. Throughout many elections, white people have generally been shown to vote republican. Since a majority of our district is white, Bost, the republican candidate, should receive a majority of the votes. Bost will also win our district because the high school graduation rate of our district is 88.4%. Throughout many elections, people with more education mainly vote republican. Since the majority people in our district have at least completed high school, they will likely vote for Bost. A point against Bost winning would be that our district has a high unemployment rate at 9.7%, and people who are unemployed or make little money have been shown to vote democrat, but 9.7% is far less than a majority. Even though these people may vote democrat, there is still a majority of people who are more likely to vote republican, which would have Bost win the election.

# data[].attributes.body
Republican

Incumbent

Won primary with 83.5% of votes

1st elected in 2014 then re-elected in 2016 to the House of Reps

Previous member of the Illinois House of Reps- District 115 (1995-2014)

Treasurer Murphysboro Township

Marine Corps 1979- 1982

Created a nail salon business with his wife

Moderate Republican

# data[].attributes.body
Democrat

Won primary with 80.9% of votes

St. Clair County state's attorney

Officer in the Navy

Served as assistant state attorney

First time running for congress

Very moderate, willing to defy party to stay moderate

# data[].attributes.body
Green

First time running

No political background

Deputy Chief Editor, Edios, present

Professor at Oklahoma City University 1992-2000

# data[].attributes.body
Voter registration deadline: October 9

Early voting: October 22-November 2

Online registration: No

Voting by mail: allowed

Voter ID required? Yes

# data[].attributes.body
Democrat

Open seat

Won primary with 61.8% of votes

U,S. House in Texas 16th (2013), El Paso City Council (2005-2013)

# data[].attributes.body
Libertarian

Open seat

No primary (only nominated party candidate)

No political background

Founded Jane Capital and other tech startups, venture capitalist at Yellow Pages and Shell Oil

# data[].attributes.body
Ted Cruz will win the Texas Senate election. He will win because Texas is 74.9% white, 50.6% white, and a Southern state. These demographics tend to vote Republican, and support the gender gap as well. A potential objection is that nearly 20% of people are recorded as being below the poverty line--that's a whole 20% that would likely vote Democrat!--but the other 80% could feasibly go Republican, and the last time a Democrat occupied a Texas statewide office was 1994, so a victory for Cruz seems likely.