# data[].attributes.body
DataDhrumil. “Iowa 3rd District U.S. House Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 5 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/iowa/3/.

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“RealClearPolitics - 2018 House Election Polls.” RealClearPolitics - 2018 House Election, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/.

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“Midterm Election Poll: Iowa's 3rd District, Young vs. Axne.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 27 Sept. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ia03-1.html.

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Rodriguez, Barbara. “Trump Approval, Health Care Dominate 3rd District Race between Republican David Young, Democrat Cindy Axne.” Des Moines Register, Des Moines Register, 23 Oct. 2018, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/22/iowa-3rd-district-race-david-young-cindy-axne-donald-trump-health-care-democrat-republican-voters/1676666002/.

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Cnn.com. (2018). Full 2016 election results: Iowa House 03. [online] Available at: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states/iowa/house/03 [Accessed 5 Nov. 2018].

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“David Young (Iowa Politician).” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 4 Nov. 2018, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Young_(Iowa_politician).

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“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/155218/david-young/#.W974xRNKg_U.

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Information on the candidates? (career politician?  First time running?  Business background?  Family? Age? Etc …)

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Information on the candidates? (career politician?  First time running?  Business background?  Family? Age? Etc …)

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David Young: Running for third term of being State representative, before running for state representative he was a chief of staff for Senator Chuck Grassley, 6th generation Iowan, 50 years old
Cindy Axne: Small Business owner, 5th generation Iowan, Has two children, 53 years old, considered to be a "newbee" in politics

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Demographic makeup of state/district? - Age, race, religion, gender, religion, income, etc…)

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Demographic makeup of state/district? - Age, race, religion, gender, religion, income, etc…)

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Majority is Female
13% poverty rate
73.07% urban
91.6% White
The main faith is Christianity with protestants
Median income | 43,176

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Voter registration laws in that state (registration requirements, voter ID laws, voting by mail, early voting, etc.)?

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Voter registration laws in that state (registration requirements, voter ID laws, voting by mail, early voting, etc.)?

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Polling places are open from 7 am - 9pm
Same day registration is available
Voter ID is not required to vote (unless you are doing a same day registration then you need proof of ID and residence)
If you miss the day of the election you can submit an absentee ballot, but you can't submit one until it is 29 day before the election

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Voter turnout in last election for the state/district?

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Voter turnout in last election for the state/district?

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Petroski, William. “Cindy Axne's Personal Investments Become a Public Campaign Issue in Battle against David Young.” Des Moines Register, Des Moines Register, 11 Sept. 2018, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/11/heated-words-between-cindy-axne-and-david-young-campaigns-congress-over-environment-related-issues/1001346002/.

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Thesis/Claim - take a side and predict the election outcome

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Thesis/Claim - take a side and predict the election outcome

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We believe that Cindy Axne is going to win this election because she has a bigger budget to spend and the demographics swing in her favor.

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Are there any third party candidates on the ballot? Could they play “spoiler?”

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Are there any third party candidates on the ballot? Could they play “spoiler?”

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There are 4 third party candidates on the ballot.
Green: Paul Knupp (could be spoiler for Cindy)
Libertarian: Bryan Holder (spoiler for republicans and democrats)
Legal Medical Now: Mark Elworth Jr.
Independent: Joe Grandanette

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List 3 major issues the candidates are debating.What are their positions?Are these positions in line with their party platform?

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List 3 major issues the candidates are debating.What are their positions?Are these positions in line with their party platform?

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Abortion:
(Young) Pro-life, falls in line with party
(Axne) Pro-Choice, falls in line with party

Gun Control:
(Young) Wants there to be gun owners, but advocated for regulations to be put into place, falls in line with more liberal side of republicans
(Cindy) Federal Law and should be heavily regulated, Falls into the more extreme democrats section

Health Care:
(Young) Pushes for change in health care system like for example wants there to be health care for those with pre-existing problems, falls in line for more liberal side of the republican party
(Cindy) Health care should be affordable for everyone, falls in line with party

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Iowa 3rd Congressional District Debate David Young R vs Cindy Axne Oct 11, 2018

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Who has endorsed your candidates?  Why does this matter?

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Who has endorsed your candidates?  Why does this matter?

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Several groups have endorsed Cindy Axne. A couple of the main groups are American Federation of Government Employees and AFSCME as well as more. This matters because who the candidate is connected with can influence the vote because of the connections likability.
David Young was endorsed mostly by  Planned Parenthood Action Fund-Positions(Lifetime), Campaign for Working Families-Positions,  National Right to Life Committee - Positions, and  NARAL Pro-Choice America-"Congressional Record on Choice". The effects are similar for both David Young and Cindy Axne in regards to who endorse them.

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Which candidate (Clinton or President Trump) did your state or district vote for in 2016?

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Which candidate (Clinton or President Trump) did your state or district vote for in 2016?

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The Majority of Iowa (including the 3rd district) voted for Trump

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“Congressman David Young.” Congressman David Young, davidyoung.house.gov/.

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Which interest groups are spending money on this race? Any from outside of the state? (Hint: The answer to this question is YES)

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Which interest groups are spending money on this race? Any from outside of the state? (Hint: The answer to this question is YES)

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Congressional Leadership Fund (super PAC) $408,000 during the last week. The money was used in part on a television ad against Axne.

House Majority PAC (super PAC) That spending group has reserved about $800,000 in television ad time to tear down Young.

The national Democrat and Republican Congressional Campaign Committee have also taken interest, but neither have placed huge sums of money into ads.

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“Cindy Axne for U.S. Congress.” Cindy Axne for Congress, cindyaxneforcongress.com/.

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“Iowa's 3rd Congressional District Election, 2018.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2018.

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Find and display/link least 1 campaign ad from each candidate. How effective to you rate the ad?

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Find and display/link least 1 campaign ad from each candidate. How effective to you rate the ad?

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This ad is a 4 out of 5 because it strongly appeals to ones emotional state

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This ad is a 4 out of 5 because it gave background info on what she can do and had uplifting music in the background

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How much money has each candidate raised? If there is a significant difference, what do you think accounts for it?

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How much money has each candidate raised? If there is a significant difference, what do you think accounts for it?

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Cindy Axne: Raised
$4,329,314 and spent $3,425,019
David young: Raised $2,526,493 and spent  $1,863,354

We believe that Cindy has raised more money than David because she is a small business owner and so is her husband.

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Find and report at least 3 public opinion polls (as recent as possible) and evaluate the credibility (sample size, margin of error, source), and information they are telling you

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Find and report at least 3 public opinion polls (as recent as possible) and evaluate the credibility (sample size, margin of error, source), and information they are telling you

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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ia03-1.html

Their  poll results are  about what was expected. Remembering that  it's one poll  talking  about only  502 people. Each candidate’s total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.(from the source above. They sound credible because they have a newspaper that the whole country reads , it automatically guarantees you with credibility .

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/house/

This poll is showing votes from the poll called Emerson where Axne and Young are almost caught up with each other in their race as  election day is approaching .They also sound credible because their results match with  our previous source's results .

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/iowa/3/

The latest polls show votes from the Emerson college poll where Axne is leading by only 1% .This can also be classified as a credible source because our most credible source also shares the same statistics .

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Where would you place this person on the flat-line spectrum? The compass?

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Where would you place this person on the flat-line spectrum? The compass?

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- Cindy Axne would be found on the bottom - left of the political spectrum .
- David Young can be found to the right of the political spectrum which in turn classifies him as a republican .

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How do the candidates stated positions fit their party platform?

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How do the candidates stated positions fit their party platform?

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- Cindy Axne believes in things like pro-choice and gun-control legislations which automatically align her with the democratic platform .
- David Young believes in things like pro-life legislation and also in building a wall along the Mexican border which categorizes his beliefs with the republican platform .

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Do the candidates have any controversies? Scandals? 

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Do the candidates have any controversies? Scandals? 

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- Trump approval, health care dominate 3rd District race between Republican David Young, Democrat Cindy Axne

-Cindy Axne held stock for a company that illegally polluted the enviorment

-Ms. Axne tends to avoid talking about Mr. Trump,” a recent New York Times article said. “She has tried to keep her focus on expanding access to affordable health care and covering pre-existing conditions, positions that are not as easy for her opponent to attack as radical and socialist.”

-Iowa’s reliance on global trade makes tariffs an important issue here, an issue that the incumbent could be vulnerable on.

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Relevant background information on their primary race (Spoiler: They won it).

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Relevant background information on their primary race (Spoiler: They won it).

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This is Cindy Axne 's first election that she is running from.
David Young ran for his first term in the year of 2014 ."On June 21, 2014, in what was described by the Des Moines Register as a "stunning upset", Young won the nomination on the fifth ballot of the convention.[6] Young went on to defeat Democrat Staci Appel 53% to 42% in the 2014 general election."

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Who are they? Who is the incumbent? The challenger? Is there an open seat?

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Who are they? Who is the incumbent? The challenger? Is there an open seat?

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David Young is a U.S. House (IA) - District 3, Republican.  He is running for his third term in Iowa district 3 this year which in turn makes him the incumbent tin this election .
Cindy Axne is the challenger in this election and it is her first time running in an election.

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Two pieces of evidence that backup your thesis/claim - describe two of your strongest pieces of evidence; (reasoning) explain why they support your prediction

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Two pieces of evidence that backup your thesis/claim - describe two of your strongest pieces of evidence; (reasoning) explain why they support your prediction

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Cindy Axne has almost double the money to spend on campaigning to help boost her exposure to people and the demographics are in her favor (white, female, lower income) meaning they (based off of the demographics) are likely to vote for her democratically.

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David Young has a chance of winning, but is likely not going to win because the demographics and her budget swing in her favor increasing her probability of winning.

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Offer an alternate perspective - highlight a weakness in your evidence or another piece of evidence that points in the other direction (why the other candidate would win)

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Offer an alternate perspective - highlight a weakness in your evidence or another piece of evidence that points in the other direction (why the other candidate would win)

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David Young is going to win. He is the incumbent and been elected for two terms which in turn has raised his exposure to Iowans and it may seem lower than Cindy Axne's budget, but 2.5 million is still 2.5 million.

Demographics are a loosely used predicter that works only some of the time meaning you can't base who is going to win off of demographics alone which gives David Young still a fighting chance.