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The unemployment rate was stable in the first quarter of 2019. In March 2019, the overall unemployment rate is 2.2% - the unemployment rate of Singaporeans in March 2019 is 3.2% which is higher than the unemployment rate of 3.1% in December 2018 and the unemployment rate of residents (Singaporeans and permanent residents) remains unchanged at 3%.

One of the main reasons why there is a growth in the unemployment rate is because of seasonal unemployment as more short-term workers are being hired for year-end festivities. For example, year-end festivities such as Christmas will requires more short term staff as  there are many events held in conjunction to Christmas such as Christmas Wonderland at Gardens by the Bay.

The data from Ministry Of Manpower (MOM) also states that there were 2500 retrenchment in the first quarter of 2019 which was higher than the retrenchment of 2320 workers in the first quarter of 2018. However,  it was also noted that even though the retrenchment rate has eased, there will be quarterly fluctuations especially with United States-China trade tensions and several key political elections across the globe. With key political elections coming up, after the elections, some policies might have been altered, causing some people to lose their jobs.

The article also stated that the unemployment rate is not significant to be alarming yet and that due to the gradual growth in the unemployment rate, it is hard to pinpoint the exact
reason why a rise in the unemployment rate had occurred.

As economic restructuring continues in the later quarters of 2019, MOM and Workforce Singapore are planning to work together with the tripartite partners to ensure that Singaporeans will secure good jobs through the Adapt and Grow initiative. With the Adapt and Grow initiative, Singaporeans are better able to adapt to the changing job demand and also grow their skills so that they can remain employable.

In addition, there will also be platform like Skillsfuture to help workers to improve their skills. Skillsfuture is a national movement that provides Singaporeans with the opportunity to develop to their fullest potential in different stages in their lives through various training schemes. As a result, workers will be able to hone their skills, allowing them to remain in the workforce for a longer period of time.

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SINGAPORE - The labour market held steady in the first three months of this year, even as economic growth slowed.

Total employment continued to grow, while the overall unemployment rate remained at 2.2 per cent after accounting for seasonal variations.

Preliminary data released by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) on Friday (April 26) also showed that the number of retrenchments was roughly the same as in the previous quarter.

There were 2,500 retrenchments in the first quarter of the year, almost similar to the 2,510 in the previous quarter. This was higher than the 2,320 in the first quarter of last year, which was a five-year low.

However, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Singaporeans inched up slightly to 3.2 per cent in March, from 3.1 per cent in December. The rate for residents - Singaporeans and permanent residents - was unchanged at 3 per cent.

Economists said the higher unemployment rate for citizens is not significant enough to cause alarm for now.

"It's hard to pinpoint the exact reason for it because the uptick is very gradual, but we should keep an eye on these numbers," said DBS economist Irvin Seah.

OCBC economist Selena Ling said that businesses will probably hold on to workers going forward. "They have to balance the short-term cyclical slowdown against the medium-term picture of a tight domestic labour market and green shoots coming out of China, especially with the coming tightening of the foreign worker quota in the services sector," she said.

Singapore's economic growth came in below expectations at 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year according to flash estimates, the weakest year-on-year quarterly growth since the global financial crisis.

Some aspects of the labour market typically lag behind the economic cycle, and in the first quarter, employment here grew by 12,000, excluding foreign domestic workers.

Although this was slower than the growth of 14,700 in the fourth quarter of last year - which the ministry said was supported by short-term hiring for year-end festivities - it was a faster pace than in the first quarter of 2018, when just 400 more people were employed.

In particular, the number of workers in construction increased slightly in the first quarter of this year, after 11 consecutive quarters - or nearly three years - of decline. The manufacturing sector continued to shed workers.

The ministry said in a statement that preliminary indicators suggest that the labour market is holding up.

"Amid signs of external economic headwinds and uncertainty in 2019, and as economic restructuring continues apace, MOM and Workforce Singapore will work closely with our tripartite partners to help Singaporeans secure good jobs through the Adapt and Grow initiative."

"We also encourage workers to tap support under the SkillsFuture initiative to upskill and reskill, so as to build career resilience and improve their career mobility."

National Trades Union Congress assistant secretary-general Patrick Tay said in a Facebook post on Friday that while retrenchment figures have eased, there will likely be quarterly fluctuations especially with United States-China trade tensions and several key political elections across the globe, which cause uncertainties.

"When analysing manpower figures... we cannot look at unemployment and retrenchment figures alone, as they may lull us into a false sense of security. We need to also pay attention and co-relate this with employment rate, labour productivity, long-term unemployment and workforce training participation rate," he said.

Some of these statistics will be released by MOM in June.

Mr Tay also called on workers and businesses to cultivate a mindset of adaptability to respond to economic transformation and an evolving workforce landscape.

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Labour market holds steady in Q1, citizen unemployment rises slightly: MOM

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SINGAPORE - The labour market held steady in the first three months of this year, even as economic growth slowed. Total employment continued to grow, while the overall unemployment rate remained at 2.2 per cent after accounting for seasonal variations.

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Thank you for your Padlet Wall and indepth analysis.  You may want to include the government schemes to mitigate inflation in Singapore such as in the property sectors (ABSD, TDSR, increase in Stamp duties, more HDB launches etc).  Government also issue GST vouchers, Town council fees rebates etc.  Hope to see your written report.

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Thank you for your Padlet Wall and indepth analysis.  You may want to include the government schemes to mitigate inflation in Singapore such as in the property sectors (ABSD, TDSR, increase in Stamp duties, more HDB launches etc).  Government also issue GST vouchers, Town council fees rebates etc.  Hope to see your written report.

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The government has implemented schemes to mitigate inflation in Singapore. Such schemes are implemented in the property sectors. Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) and the tightening of the limit of loan-to-value limits on residential property purchases has been put to place. These actions are applied so as to cool the property market and keep price increases in line with economic fundamentals.  Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) is another way the government has put in place to ensure that people borrow and banks can lend, responsibly. TDSR limits the amount borrowers can spend on debt repayments to 60 per cent of their gross monthly income. The TDSR standardises the framework banks use when assessing a potential borrower’s capacity to make loan repayments and helps prevent high-risk loans being issued.

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The inflation rate in Singapore has been modestly rising - the rise in costs of goods and services in Singapore which has caused increasing concerns for the people living in Singapore. The three main areas which have had a price hike over the past few years would be education, healthcare and food. These three areas are all essential services and items that we need for our daily lives. According to the article, the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost increase of all items, at 0.4 per cent in 2018, has lowered from 0.6 per cent the year before. This information analyses over a five-year period, which included two consecutive years of negative inflation readings which were in 2015 and 2016, the CPI averaged at about 2.2 per cent a year. However, according to core inflation which the economist suggested using as they claim that it is a better gauge of underlying living cost. This is because core inflation excludes accommodation and private road transport costs – the two components that are influenced by government policies. Core inflation averaged at about 1.3 per cent a year since 2013.
For 2018, core inflation rose to 1.7 per cent, from 1.5 per cent in 2017.
For the main hikes :
Firstly, education – fees of tertiary institution and private tuition fees as well as the cost of textbooks has seen the most significant increase over the past five years. Based on official data showed, education inflation increased by 16.9 per cent since 2013, outpacing both headline and core inflation. Strong demand and the willingness among parents to spend on private education, such as pre-schools, tuition and enrichment classes, have partly fueled the increase of Singapore citizen's pursuing general degree courses at the Singapore Institute of Technology, causing tuition fees to go up by S$210 to S$8,130 over the same period. For most of its degree programmes, annual increases ranged from S$60 to S$90 per annum in the last three academic years, the university said.
Another critical factor would be food, as food prices were increased by about 10 per cent since 2013. The reasons are two-fold. For one, Singapore imports more than 90 per cent of the food consumed by its population, hence prices are easily swayed by adverse weather conditions and geopolitical tensions elsewhere that affect supply chains, explained Dr Tan.
Third would be healthcare. Healthcare inflation has gone up by about 8.5 per cent since 2013, and as Singapore's population ages, demand will only get stronger yet it is not easy to increase supply given the long training periods required for quality medical workers.
However even with all these inflation occurring, as long as inflation stays tame and in line with income growth, cost of living concerns can be mitigated. Household income statistics issued on 2019 February showed the median monthly income among households here rose to S$9,023 in 2017, a 1.5 per cent increase from 2016's S$8,846 after factoring in inflation. According to the same set of household income statistics, average work earnings per household member for the bottom 50 per cent of households grew by 1.5 per cent in 2017. This was slower than those in the 51st to 90th percentile which had income growth of  0.8 per cent, while the top 10 per cent saw a real increase of 2.6 per cent.
In conclusion, inflation is bound to happen and is happening however as long as a person has a job and an income, things can be resolved as although the cost of living will increase, the government will continue investing in our social safety net and the best solution for the cost of living for them would be to keep creating jobs and invest in the training of their workers so that everyone can remain employable and have a job.

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While the overall prices of goods and services are rising at a modest pace, some people are still feeling the pinch due to sharp increases in three main areas: education, healthcare and food.

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SINGAPORE: Despite making sure to save about S$1,500 a month, Ms Serynn Guay, 34, still feels a niggling worry that she's not setting aside enough money for her family's future needs.

The mother of one is a marketing manager, while her husband manages his own start-up. Together, they live in a five-room flat with her husband's parents.

Food, education and utilities make up a large chunk of monthly expenses. With prices on the rise, the family of five try to live within their means.

They do not have a car or a helper at home. To save money, Ms Guay and her husband make use of cashback reward apps and have recently switched to an electricity retailer that offers them a 10 per cent discount on their monthly utilities bill.

Expenses remain manageable and with appropriate budgeting, the family is able to afford a few small luxuries, like an overseas vacation. But further down the road, Ms Guay can't help but wonder if she will have enough to last through retirement.

One of her worries is "unpredictable" healthcare bills.

"We don't know how much we'll need when we're older ... Will we be able to retire comfortably? Will our savings be enough?"

She added: "It's likely that we'll continue working for at least the next two decades. Even after my child completes university, we still need to continue saving for retirement and other living expenses."

Ms Guay is not alone and her litany of concerns is likely shared by many Singaporeans who are worried about the high cost of living here, particularly on the back of rising electricity tariffs and water prices.

Coupled with the announcement of an eventual goods and services tax (GST) hike, the issue of living costs regained traction last year - so much so that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong centred his Mandarin National Day Rally speech on it.
INFLATION PICTURE
"They sense that they have to spend more, that their earnings never seem quite enough," Mr Lee said last August as he acknowledged some of this ground sentiment. He reiterated that the Government will do its part to alleviate concerns.

A look at headline inflation seems to suggest modest overall price gains.

Data from the Department of Statistics (DOS) showed the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost increase of all items, at 0.4 per cent in 2018, a dip from 0.6 per cent the year before.

Over a five-year period, which included two consecutive years of negative inflation readings in 2015 and 2016, CPI averaged at about 0.2 per cent a year.

Some economists suggested core inflation is a better gauge of underlying living costs.

This is because core inflation excludes accommodation and private road transport costs - the two components that are heavily influenced by Government policies.

Stripping out these two components, which have fallen in recent years since the roll-out of cooling measures to the housing and motor vehicle markets, core inflation averaged at about 1.3 per cent a year since 2013.

For 2018, core inflation rose to 1.7 per cent, from 1.5 per cent in 2017.
FEELING THE PINCH
Even then, this remains manageable, according to economists who spoke to Channel NewsAsia. Such "mild" inflation is also necessary to prevent deflation and its dire consequences, like that in Japan.

So, if the overall increase in prices of goods and services is modest, why do some people still feel that the cost of living has gone up in recent years?

Economists said this boils down to the rising prices of some basic necessities, with inflation data showing three main areas with significant spikes over the past five years.

First, education.

This component - which includes fees of tertiary institutions and private tuition fees, as well as the cost of textbooks - has seen the biggest increase over the past five years, noted experts like SIM Global Education's senior lecturer Tan Khay Boon.

Calculations by experts based on official data showed education inflation gained 16.9 per cent since 2013, outpacing both headline and core inflation.

Strong demand and the willingness among parents to spend on private education, such as pre-schools, tuition and enrichment classes, have partly fuelled the increase, said Dr Tan.

Another key contributor is tuition fees for polytechnics and local universities, experts said.

The latter, for instance, rose across the bulk of universities here - such as Nanyang Technological University, National University of Singapore and Singapore Management University - from 2015 to 2018, according to figures consolidated by consumer research firm ValueChampion.

For Singapore citizens pursuing general degree courses at the Singapore Institute of Technology, tuition fees went up by S$210 to S$8,130 over the same period. For most of its degree programmes, annual increases ranged from S$60 to S$90 per annum in the last 3 academic years, the university said.

Second, food.

Experts' calculations based on official data showed food prices up by about 10 per cent since 2013.

The reasons are two-fold. For one, Singapore imports more than 90 per cent of the food consumed by its population, hence prices are easily swayed by adverse weather and geopolitical tensions elsewhere that affect supply chains, explained Dr Tan.

DOS data showed varying price increases for household essentials, such as rice and eggs, over the years.

A 5kg packet of fragrant Thai rice, for example, cost S$13.06 last year but S$12.78 in 2013. One will also have to pay 10 per cent more for a box of 10 eggs, which rose to S$2.14 last year from five years ago.

For food services, higher rentals and labour costs, as well as water and electricity bills, have made dining out more expensive. This is "unavoidable" as food operators, especially stall owners at food courts and hawker centres, face rising business costs, said economist Jeff Ng.

Echoing that, economist Walter Theseira from the Singapore University of Social Sciences said: "While there are calls (for the Government) to control food prices, we need to remember that the majority of Singaporeans employed in providing low-cost food are themselves low to medium-wage workers."

"It's not reasonable in my view to ask the hawker to bear the burden for keeping prices low," he added.

Third, healthcare.

Amid a greying population, healthcare inflation has gone up by about 8.5 per cent since 2013, based on experts' calculations of official data. Of which, the cost of seeking medical and dental treatment rose about 10.6 per cent over the same period.

"As Singapore's population ages, demand will only get stronger yet it is not easy to increase supply given the long training periods required for quality medical workers," said Dr Tan.

"This is an area that isn't easily contained so healthcare prices could keep going up. For retirees, this is an area of concern."

Given the price gains in basic necessities, it is only natural that Singaporeans feel the pinch even if overall inflation stays low, experts told Channel NewsAsia.

"People form their idea of inflation from their day-to-day expenses and these include food and healthcare costs, which are ever rising," said DBS senior economist Irvin Seah.

To be sure, there is also the desire for better things in life that may contribute to cost-of-living pressures - a point also mentioned by the prime minister in his National Day Rally speech.

"As the country progresses, there are expectations, to a certain extent, for a higher quality of life. A better phone, an expensive bag, a reputable tutor or healthcare option - all these add up," said Mr Ng from independent economics research firm Continuum Economics.
WHO'S FALLING BEHIND?
Agreeing, Dr Theseira said consumption choices play a role. Using food inflation as an example, he explained: "Restaurant food, for example, occupies a significant share of retail food expenditures and that share has been rising overtime as Singaporeans get more affluent."

In general, as long as inflation stays tame and in line with income growth, cost of living concerns can be mitigated, economists told Channel NewsAsia.

Household income statistics issued last February showed the median monthly income among households here rose to S$9,023 in 2017, a 1.5 per cent increase from 2016's S$8,846 after factoring in inflation.

While that shows income growth broadly keeping up with overall inflation, economists said the devil may be in the details.

According to the same set of household income statistics, average work earnings per household member for the bottom 50 per cent households grew between 2.1 and 3.6 per cent in 2017. This was slower than those in the 51st to 90th percentile which had income growth of between 3.7 and 4.5 per cent, while the top 10 per cent saw real growth of 2.6 per cent.

To be sure, if traced back over a five-year period from 2012 to 2017, households in the bottom 50 per cent experienced a higher rate of real income growth (4.2 to 4.6 per cent a year), compared with those in the top 50 per cent (2.2 to 4.2 per cent).

Another set of data to examine is how inflation impacts income groups differently.

For 2018, the effects of an increase in food, water and electricity prices, as well as medical and dental treatment costs, have been felt more pointedly by households in the lowest 20 per cent, according to the latest CPI data.

CPI inflation, excluding imputed rentals on owner-occupied accommodation, was up 1.8 per cent for the less well-off. Inflation was 1.3 per cent and 1.1 per cent for the middle 60 per cent and the highest 20 per cent income groups, respectively.

"Uneven wage growth is one factor but we must also consider that the less well-off spend a larger proportion of their income on food items," said Dr Mathew Mathews, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies. "Cost of these have been going up quite a bit over the past few years."

With inflation expected to pick up further this year - on the back of higher imported oil prices and possible spillover impact from the US-China trade war - the lower-income group could be disproportionately hit, other experts added.

Meanwhile, other segments within the society could also need help, such as the sandwiched generation.

"These are the people in the middle class who are taking care of both young children who are still schooling and aged parents who may have chronic or other illnesses, and staying in perhaps a 3 or 4-room flat," said Dr Mathews.

"Healthcare inflation exceeds general inflation considerably every year, and this group of Singaporeans may need more help in the future."

Economists said that while schemes such as GST vouchers and rebates off utilities bills are useful, the long-term solution to cost-of-living concerns lies in ensuring pay increases in low-wage jobs and pushing on with economic restructuring efforts to create better jobs for all.

"I think our attention here should be at the low-wage worker," said Dr Theseira. "Rather than artificially hold costs down which also affects workers in those industries, it would make more sense to spend effort raising wages."

"Cost of living is a problem but as long as a person has a job and an income, things can be resolved," said Mr Seah. "So we have to continue investing in our social safety net and by that, I'm not just talking about public assistance schemes."
Editor's note: A previous version of this article gave incorrect figures for tuition fees at the Singapore Institute of Technology from 2015 to 2018. We apologise for the error.

He added: "The best solution is to keep creating jobs and invest in the training of our workers so that everyone remains employable and can have a job."

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Cost of living in Singapore: Slow overall inflation but some pressure points

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While the overall prices of goods and services are rising at a modest pace, some people are still feeling the pinch due to sharp increases in three main areas: education, healthcare and food.

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There will be an estimated drop of 2.4% in the GDP in 2019. Due to the fall in exports from 5.1% in 2018 to 4.8% in 2019. As China as increased its trade protection there will be lesser demand for people to ship their goods into China due to the higher prices cause export to fall and AD to fall. Due to these trade tensions there will be lesser investments into firms and will cause the corporate profits to fall. There will be higher interest rate rates will which reduce consumers spending power causing the consumer expenditure to decrease.

C+I+G+(X-M)=AD
As there is a fall in consumer expenditure , investment expenditure and a decrease of exports causing net imports to be higher. This will cause AD to fall causing a slow down in economic growth. Thus, having the GDP to fall

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SINGAPORE'S gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2019 is expected to drop to 2.4 per cent "against a more challenging environment for exports and the manufacturing sector", according to a report on Monday from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW).

This is in line with easing growth across South-east Asia, as export growth slows amid increased trade protectionism and slower Chinese import demand, said ICAEW, which sees regional growth at 4.8 per cent in 2019 and 4.7 per cent in 2020, down from 5.1 per cent in 2018.

The ICAEW forecast for Singapore's 2019 growth is comparable to the Ministry of Trade and Industry's expectation of growth coming in slightly below the mid-point of the official 1.5 to 3.5 per cent forecast range, as well as the 2.5 per cent forecast arrived at in the Monetary Authority of Singapore's March survey of professional forecasters. The Singapore economy grew 3.2 per cent in 2018.

Across the region, economies started on a soft note with a broad-based deterioration in export momentum, with only Malaysia seeing positive annual growth, said the report. While Singapore export growth improved in January, "the data is likely to be volatile in Q1 given the timing of Chinese New Year", it added.

"Looking ahead, we expect the risks to the region's economic outlook to be primarily to the downside," said ICAEW economic advisor and Oxford Economics lead Asia economist Sian Fenner.

"A sharper slowdown in Chinese economic growth triggered by worsening confidence or a renewed escalation in US-China trade tensions would all affect global trade and growth across the region," she added.

Singapore's exposure to China means additional risks to growth, both directly to domestic demand and via supply chains, said the report. While the mildly expansionary Budget 2019 leaves room to intervene if economic conditions worsen sharply, moves such as the Bicentennial Bonus are "unlikely to lead to any significant bounce in household spending in Singapore this year".

Domestic demand is expected to moderate due to sluggish residential investment and rising headwinds facing business investment. Trade tensions may dampen private sentiment and investment intentions, while momentum in corporate profits is also forecast to soften.

Said ICAEW regional director for South-east Asia Mark Billington: "While the mildly expansionary budget will support growth, we maintain our cautious outlook for Singapore's economy, given the slowdown in global trade and the likely impact on Singapore's manufacturing and externally-dependent service sectors."

ICAEW sees a slight acceleration in employment growth as likely to support wage growth of around 3.7 per cent, similar to 2018. Household spending momentum is expected to moderate from 2018 as higher domestic interest rates and negative wealth effects - linked to the fall in equity prices in 2018 -- reduce households' spending power.

"On a more positive note, government measures to support businesses and encourage investment, particularly in adapting to Industry 4.0, should continue to back and provide a boost to planned infrastructure investment," said ICAEW, expecting this to support investment over the next 18 months.

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Singapore GDP growth to slow to 2.4% in 2019: ICAEW report

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SINGAPORE'S gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2019 is expected to drop to 2.4 per cent "against a more challenging environment for exports and the manufacturing sector", according to a report on Monday from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW). Read more at The Business Times.