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                 Source: Khorana et al. (2021)

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Comparison of Commonwealth's worldwide and intra-Commonwealth exports (2019 and 2020)

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Comparison of Commonwealth's worldwide and intra-Commonwealth exports (2019 and 2020)

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Link 1: Khorana, S. et al. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on the global and intra-commonwealth trade in goods. The Commonwealth [online].  Available from: https://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/inline/ITWP_2021-08_UPDF.pdf [Accessed 04/01/22]

The COVID-19 pandemic caused chaos on the economic systems of the majority of Commonwealth countries. Commonwealth populations had fallen to 20 million as of March 20, 2021.  1 million people died as a result of infections.
This disaster was associated with a substantial drop in the Commonwealth's revenue.  Trade flows on a worldwide and intra-Commonwealth scale on the figure above  illustrates this. In comparison to pre-pandemic levels  Commonwealth economies, growth trends  In 2020, this group of countries is estimated to contract by around 10%, making them an interesting case study.  in which to investigate the pandemic's implications.  Although some of them have been successful, end the pandemic and restart production  and trading activities, at time of this post most Commonwealth nations are still trying to battle to  control the pandemic.

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Link1: Khorana, S. et al. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on the global and intra-commonwealth trade in goods. The Commonwealth [online].  Available from: https://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/inline/ITWP_2021-08_UPDF.pdf [Accessed 04/01/22]

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a massive distress of enormous proportions, causing chaos on international trade flows (WTO, 2020a). This was the result of a financial and economic shock caused by the interruption of economic activity as a result of lockdowns, travel restrictions, international border and port closures, and other virus-containment measures.
The paper examines the short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on worldwide and intra-Commonwealth trade in member nations' goods, including LDCs and small states, from January 2019 to November 2020 using bilateral monthly export data.
The study uses three various metrics of COVID-19 incidence in a country: the number of COVID-19 infectious diseases, the amount of deaths, and the stringency of virus-containment measures. The research demonstrates explanatory information on the impact of COVID-19 on the economies of Commonwealth countries. It also provides a summary of the present literature on COVID-19's economic impact.
Finally, the last section provides information about the data and the evidence based configuration of the theoretical model, as well as our key findings. Also, it gathers some conclusions and make recommendations for Commonwealth countries looking to strengthen their economies and protect them from future shocks.

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Link 2: Escaith, H. et al. (2020). The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on Commonwealth Trade, Recovery and Resilience. The Commonwealth [online]. Available from: https://www.thecommonwealth.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/COVIDTradeRecoveryResilience_THT161.pdf [Accessed 07/01/22]

The pandemic of COVID-19 is having an extraordinary influence on international economic systems, companies, governments, and society. There are now over ten million coronavirus cases worldwide, with over 500,000 deaths. While it is too early to understand the full economic implications, especially given the uncertainties surrounding the duration of the epidemic and the risk of a second wave of infection, as well as progress on vaccine development, just several doubt the magnitude of the challenge ahead. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a 4.9 percent drop in global GDP in 2020 (down from the 3% drop predicted in April 2020), with advanced economies losing up to 8% (IMF, 2020b).
Moreover, because of the global economy's inadequate perspective, only 39 countries out of 190 are expected to have positive GDP growth in 2020 (and none of them will grow at a rate greater than 2%). (IMF, 2020a). To put this in context, at the height of the global financial crisis, just over 100 countries experienced positive growth.

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Development in goods and services from 2010 to 2018 in the post-financial-crisis timeframe (average percent )

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Development in goods and services from 2010 to 2018 in the post-financial-crisis timeframe (average percent )

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Link 2: Escaith, H. et al. (2020). The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on Commonwealth Trade, Recovery and Resilience. The Commonwealth [online]. Available from: https://www.thecommonwealth.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/COVIDTradeRecoveryResilience_THT161.pdf [Accessed 07/01/22]
Commonwealth exports of goods and services started growing faster than the global in the post-financial crisis period (2010-2018). During this time, the Commonwealth's goods exports increased by around 8%, compared to a global increase of only 5.5%. Despite the disruption in economic activity caused by the 'great lockdown,' the IMF (2020a) predicts that 13 Commonwealth developing countries will have positive growth rates in 2020.
However apart from merchandise trade, the Commonwealth's growth in service exports was particularly strong. Services exports increased at an 8.8 percent annual rate, compared to 5.6 percent for the rest of the world.

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Link 3: The international trade committee (2020). The Covid-19 pandemic and international trade. Available from: https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/2177/documents/20125/default/ [Accessed 07/01/22]

The COVID-19 pandemic had an extremely serious impact on the economic output and global trade that appears to have exceeded the 2008–09 financial crisis. A "mutually reinforcing triple shock" in consumption, supply, and commerce was caused by the pandemic. Economic growth fell as a result of government lockdown policies and uncertainty about employment. In most sectors, production was halted or greatly reduced, reducing demand for intermediate inputs and affecting production.
In this findings, the impact of disturbance on trade in essential goods (pharmaceuticals, medical supplies, and agricultural products—Chapter 2), trade in manufactured goods and services (Chapter 3), and international investment is discussed (Chapter 7). Furthermore, it was investigated how the UK government has attempted to assist businesses in continuing to trade internationally in an interrupted trading environment (Chapter 4). Many of the pandemic-response measures were implemented unilaterally by governments, with little advance discussion at the international level.
Furthermore, there is an evidence received that COVID-19 could result in a shift toward protectionism in the long run. Additionally, the role of international institutions in coordinating a unified response to the pandemic is examined(Chapter 5), and considered what long-term effects the crisis might have on supply chain operations and commerce (Chapter 6).

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Link 4:Banga, K. and Raga, S. (2021) Digital Trade for Post-COVID Recovery and Resilience in the Commonwealth. Commonwealth (online). Available from: https://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/inline/ITWP 2021_04_UPDF.pdf

There is a comprehensive digital division within the Commonwealth in accessibility to and adoption of digital infrastructure and technologies, with Continuous - wave developing nations also continues to lag behind on key digital enablers. This assumes that not all Commonwealth nations will be able to benefit from digital trade in any post-crisis recovery. In fact, COVID-19 and digitalization pressures may exacerbate existing inequalities and/or create new economic and social divides within the Commonwealth if proper policies are not implemented. Technology differentiations may also worsen the difficulties that some Commonwealth countries are experiencing in the post-COVID-19 recovery period.
Overall, national e-commerce techniques should plan to improve the country's e-commerce industry by providing the necessary infrastructure, developing appropriate skills, and implementing e-commerce laws and regulations.

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Link 4:Banga, K. and Raga, S. (2021) Digital Trade for Post-COVID Recovery and Resilience in the Commonwealth. Commonwealth (online). Available from: https://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/inline/ITWP 2021_04_UPDF.pdf
The graph above shows that Commonwealth3 ICT trade has increased by 16.5 percent over the decade, from US$634 billion in 2010 to $739 billion in 2019. However, the Commonwealth's share of world ICT goods and services trade has dropped significantly, particularly in the case of ICT services, with a 3.4 percentage point drop between 2010 and 2019. This is partly due to minor decrease in ICT trade by major CW developed countries such as Canada (2.0 percent) and the United Kingdom (1.4 percent), combined with strong growth in ICT trade outside the Commonwealth, particularly China's ICT trade growth of 59.2 percent during the period. Overall, the Commonwealth has done better in terms of ICT trade flows than it has in terms of ICT goods trade.

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Link 4:Banga, K. and Raga, S. (2021) Digital Trade for Post-COVID Recovery and Resilience in the Commonwealth. Commonwealth (online). Available from: https://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/inline/ITWP 2021_04_UPDF.pdf  [Accessed 08/01/22]

Inside the Commonwealth, developed nations' proportion has declined significantly, while developing countries' share has increased massively, accounts for approximately 71% of Commonwealth ICT trade in 2019. The proportion of CW LDCs has remained unchanged. Within CW developing countries, CW Asia's share of total Commonwealth ICT trade increased from 67.2 percent in 2010 to 70.6% in 2019.

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Link 5: Commonwealth trade review (2018). Strengthening the Commonwealth advantage. The Commonwealth [online]. Available from: https://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/inline/Strengthening_the_Commonwealth_9781849291798_UPDF.pdf

The 2018 Commonwealth Trade Review examines how Commonwealth members, both independently and collaboratively, can enhance this Commonwealth benefit in two ways: by utilising new technologies, particularly digitalization, to introduce additional trade and investment opportunities; and by strengthening specific elements of their internal trade governance system to further decrease trade costs.

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Link 5: Murphy et al. (2021) Business and the Commonwealth (II): Exploring the notion of a "Commonwealth advantage" in trade. YouTube (online). Available from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oo39qy2KXtw  [Accessed 09/01/22]

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Business and the Commonwealth (II): Exploring the notion of a “Commonwealth advantage” in trade

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Link 6: Opportunities for Commonwealth development (2018). Creating jobs, sharing prosperity and increasing resilience. Available from:https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/12159.pdf  [Accessed 10/01/22]

To provide development of young people entering into the market, Commonwealth countries must create 50,000 jobs per day until 2030. Promoting trade and investment is critical to meeting this goal.
The Commonwealth should assist member countries in accelerating progress on the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as aim policies and finance to highlight those most at risk of falling behind. The Commonwealth should collaborate to improve Small Island Developing States' access to financing, achieving higher adaptive capacity and better cope with disasters.

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Link 6: Opportunities for Commonwealth development (2018). Creating jobs, sharing prosperity and increasing resilience. Available from:https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/12159.pd  [Accessed 10/01/22]

The table above illustrates how many additional jobs Commonwealth countries must create every year day after day to stay current with the increase in new young people into the labour force.