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Release date: 02/04/2020

Global cereal markets are expected to remain balanced and comfortable despite worries over the impacts of COVID-19. While localized disruptions, largely due to logistical issues, pose challenges to food supply chains in some markets, their anticipated duration and magnitude are unlikely to have a significant effect on global food markets.

Global cereal markets expected to remain well supplied through 2019/20

FAO's estimate for 2019 world cereal production has been revised upward by 1.2 million tonnes this month, and now stands at 2 721 million tonnes, surpassing the 2018 global output by 64.6 million tonnes (2.4 percent). The latest revision rests mostly on raised estimates for maize production in the European Union and the Russian Federation, based on higher-than-previously expected yields. As a result, world production of coarse grains in 2019 now stands at 1 445 million tonnes, 36.3 million tonnes higher year-on-year. The estimate for global wheat production remains unchanged since the previous month at 763 million tonnes, 30.9 million tonnes above the 2018 output and only slightly short of the record 765 million tonnes registered in 2016. There have been only minor adjustments to the global rice production outlook since March, with world output still expected at 512 million tonnes (milled basis), down only 0.5 percent from the 2018 high and the second largest volume on record.

Prospects for 2020 crops

FAO's forecast for 2020 world wheat production remains unchanged this month, with preliminary expectations still indicating an output of 763 million tonnes, a comparable level to the outturn in 2019. Lower outputs are expected in the European Union, Ukraine and the United States of America, mostly underpinned by area contractions. These declines are likely to be compensated by anticipated production gains in the Russian Federation, as well as in India and Pakistan; although in the latter two countries, pest infestations and recent unseasonal precipitations could temper the increases.

For coarse grains, harvesting of the 2020 crops is soon to commence in Southern Hemisphere countries. In South America, similar sized harvests to the previous year's bumper levels are forecast in Argentina and Brazil, primarily owing to above-average maize sowings. In South Africa, maize production is forecast to recover strongly from the drought-reduced level of 2019, exceeding 15 million tonnes and representing the second highest on record.In the Northern Hemisphere, planting of coarse grain crops has either commenced or is about to start. The recent downturn in international maize prices, reflecting in part the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, could negatively influence sowing decisions.

World cereal utilization forecast for 2019/20 is lifted marginally to 2 722 million tonnes, now pointing to an expansion of 33 million tonnes (1.2 percent) from the 2018/19 level. The global wheat utilization forecast remains nearly unchanged this month, as upward revisions made for China were balanced by a downward revision in the European Union resulting from lower than previoualy expected production and a faster pace in exports. Coarse grain utilization is now pegged at 1 447 million tonnes, roughly 19 million tonnes (1.3 percent) above 2018/19, following upward revisions in maize utilization made this month for the European Union and the Russian Federation on larger production than earlier anticipated. FAO's forecast of world rice utilization in 2019/20 has been lowered by 900 000 tonnes from last month to 513 million tonnes. At this level, world rice use would still surpass the 2018/19 high by 0.9 percent, thanks to a 1.6 percent predicted expansion in food intake.

FAO's forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the 2020 seasons has been lowered by almost 5 million tonnes, now totalling 8 million tonnes below their opening levels. As a result of this projected drop in cereal stocks, on top of the rise in forecast cereal utilization, the global cereals stocks-to-use ratio is down to 30.7 percent, which is still considered a comfortable level. Despite a reduction of 4.3 million tonnes (1.5 percent) this month on account of revised estimates in China, global 2019/20 wheat inventories are still forecast to remain above their opening level by 1.4 million tonnes (0.5 percent). Global coarse grain stocks have also been trimmed since March, by 700 000 tonnes (0.2 percent), further amplifying the forecast decline from opening levels to over 9 million tonnes (2.2 percent), still reflecting large anticipated decreases in maize inventories. FAO's forecast of world rice stocks at the close of 2019/20 has been raised by a further 400 000 tonnes to 183 million tonnes, which would imply a marginal (0.3 percent) decline from the previous season's record high. The major rice exporting countries account for all of this month's slight upward revisions, now expected to lift their aggregate level of reserves by 10.5 percent year-on-year to a six-year high of 44 million tonnes.

World trade in cereals in 2019/20 is still forecast to rebound from 2018/19 by 9.5 millon tonnes (2.3 percent) and reach 420 million tonnes. Global 2019/20 wheat trade (July/June) remains pegged at close to 174 million tonnes, a 3.2 percent recovery from 2018/19, while the FAO 2019/20 (July/June) forecast of world trade in coarse grains is also nearly unchanged, at 201.5 million tonnes, up 3.1 million tonnes (1.6 percent) from 2018/19. Now surpassing 167 million tonnes, world maize trade in 2019/20 (July/June) is forecast to reach an all-time high, with record maize shipments from Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine more than compensating for a fall in exports from the United States of America. World rice trade in 2020 (January-December) is forecast to reach 45 million tonnes, down 700 000 tonnes from the March forecast but up 2.2 percent from the 2019 reduced level. The month-on-month revision primarily stems from less buoyant import expectations for the Asian Near East and Africa, while on the export side, forecasts were lowered for India and Thailand.

More detailed information can be found in the March issue of Food Crop Prospects and Food Situation http://www.fao.org/giews/reports/crop-prospects/

Summary Tables

Download full dataset

1/ Production data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. Rice production is expressed in milled terms.
2/ Production plus opening stocks.
3/ Trade data refer to exports based on a July/June marketing season for wheat and coarse grains and on a January/December marketing season for rice (second year shown).
4/ May not equal the difference between supply and utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.
5/ Major wheat exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States; major coarse grain exporters are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, the EU, Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States; major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Viet Nam. Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.

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FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief | World Food Situation | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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Release date: 02/04/2020 Global cereal markets are expected to remain balanced and comfortable despite worries over the impacts of COVID-19. While localized disruptions, largely due to logistical issues, pose challenges to food supply chains in some markets, their anticipated duration and magnitude are unlikely to have a significant effect on global food markets.

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The European Union produces close to five billion bushels of wheat each year, while the United States produces about two billion bushels [source: Brester]. Unless you're a professional baker, you might think that all wheat is the same, but these two regions actually produce vastly different varieties of this crop.

Around 60 percent of U.S. wheat production is of the hard red wheat variety; just 23 percent consists of soft wheat [source: Brester]. In Europe, the principal strains of wheat are generally of the soft variety. So what's the difference between the two? Part of the difference lies in gluten, a protein blend found in wheat and other grains. Hard wheat has more gluten than soft wheat, and the gluten it contains is stronger than gluten found in soft wheat. This tough gluten is ideal for baking soft, fluffy bread that people are used to consuming in the United States.

Soft wheat has a very different consistency. It has less gluten - and less protein overall - than hard wheat, and what gluten it does have is weak and easily broken down. This softer wheat is generally preferred for making pastries, cakes, cookies and other non-bread products.

Due to soil and growing conditions, the differences between American and European wheat extend further than gluten content. American wheat contains about 10 times more selenium, a trace mineral, than European varieties [source: Shewry]. Levels of all proteins are lower overall in European wheat compared to American varieties [source: Gisslen], but many growers are working hard to increase protein levels to make this wheat more attractive to potential buyers.

Of course, this doesn't mean that all American wheat is high in gluten and all European wheat is low in gluten. Producers in each of these regions plant many different varieties of wheat, so you can find a blend to suit any purpose, no matter where you live. It's also important to keep in mind that while the U.S. imports little wheat, Europe imports about 1.1 million tons of American wheat each year, so you can find plenty of American wheat throughout the EU [source: Mufson and Branigin].

Interestingly, despite the difference in gluten between American and European wheat, rates of celiac disease between the two regions are identical, with 1 in 133 people believed to suffer from this gluten-related autoimmune disease [source: Gitig].

Related Articles

Sources

Brester, Gary. "Wheat." Agricultural Marketing Resource Center. April 2012. (Oct. 26, 2014) http://www.agmrc.org/commodities__products/grains__oilseeds/wheat/

de la Hamaide, Sybille. "Seed Makers Gearing Up for French Wheat Protein Challenge." Reuters. July 3, 2014. (Oct. 26, 2014) http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/03/wheat-france-protein-idUSL6N0PC4PS20140703

Gisslen, Wayne. "Professional Baking." John Wiley and Sons. 2012.

Gitig, Diana. "When, and Why, Did Everyone Stop Eating Gluten?" Scientific American. May 10, 2011. (Oct. 26, 2014) http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/05/10/when-and-why-did-everyone-stop-eating-gluten/

Great River Organic Milling. "FAQ." 2015. (Oct. 26, 2014) http://www.greatrivermilling.com/faq.php

Mufson, Steven and Branigin, William. "European Union urges testing of U.S. wheat imports for unapproved strain." Washington Post. May 31, 2013. (Oct. 26, 2014)http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/european-union-urges-testing-of-us-wheat-imports-for-unapproved-strain/2013/05/31/eaaefcdc-c9fc-11e2-8da7-d274bc611a47_story.html

Shewry, P.R. "Wheat." Journal of Experimental Botany. Feb. 13, 2009. (Oct. 26, 2014) http://jxb.oxfordjournals.org/content/60/6/1537.full

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Is American wheat different than European wheat?

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The European Union produces close to five billion bushels of wheat each year, while the United States produces about two billion bushels [source: Brester]. Unless you're a professional baker, you might think that all wheat is the same, but these two regions actually produce vastly different varieties of this crop.

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The Combines are Rolling | 2019 Wheat Harvest day 1

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What are they?

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A cereal is any grass cultivated (grown) for the edible components of its grain (botanically, a type of fruit called a caryopsis), composed of the endosperm, germ, and bran. The term may also refer to the resulting grain itself (specifically " cereal grain"). Cereal grain crops are grown in greater quantities and provide more food energy worldwide than any other type of crop and are therefore staple crops. Edible grains from other plant families, such as buckwheat, quinoa and chia, are referred to as pseudocereals.

In their natural, unprocessed, whole grain form, cereals are a rich source of vitamins, minerals, carbohydrates, fats, oils, and protein. When processed by the removal of the bran, and germ, the remaining endosperm is mostly carbohydrate. In some developing countries, grain in the form of rice, wheat, millet, or maize constitutes a majority of daily sustenance. In developed countries, cereal consumption is moderate and varied but still substantial, primarily in the form of refined and processed grains.

The word "cereal" is derived from , the Roman goddess of harvest and agriculture.

Agriculture allowed for the support of an increased population, leading to larger societies and eventually the development of cities. It also created the need for greater organization of political power (and the creation of social stratification), as decisions had to be made regarding labor and harvest allocation and access rights to water and land. Agriculture bred immobility, as populations settled down for long periods of time, which led to the accumulation of material goods.

Early Neolithic villages show evidence of the development of processing grain. The Levant is the ancient home of the ancestors of wheat, barley and peas, in which many of these villages were based. There is evidence of the cultivation of cereals in Syria approximately 9,000 years ago. Wheat, Barley, Rye, Oats and Flaxseeds were all domesticated in the Fertile Crescent during the early Neolithic. During the same period, farmers in China began to farm rice and millet, using human-made floods and fires as part of their cultivation regimen. Fiber crops were domesticated as early as food crops, with China domesticating hemp, cotton being developed independently in Africa and South America, and Western Asia domesticating flax. The use of soil amendments, including manure, fish, compost and ashes, appears to have begun early, and developed independently in several areas of the world, including Mesopotamia, the Nile Valley and Eastern Asia.

The first cereal grains were domesticated by early primitive humans. About 8,000 years ago, they were domesticated by ancient farming communities in the Fertile Crescent region. Emmer wheat, einkorn wheat, and barley were three of the so-called Neolithic founder crops in the development of agriculture. Around the same time, millets and kinds of rice were starting to become domesticated in East Asia. Sorghum and millets were also being domesticated in sub-Saharan West Africa.

Cereals were the foundation of human civilization. Cereal frontiers coincided with civilizational frontiers. The term Fertile Crescent explicitly implies the spatial dependence of civilization on cereals. The Great Wall of China and the Roman limes demarcated the same northern limit of the cereal cultivation. The Silk Road stretched along the cereal belt of Eurasia. Numerous Chinese imperial edicts stated: "Agriculture is the foundation of this empire," while the foundation of agriculture were the Five Grains.

Cereals determined how large and for how long an army could be mobilized. For this reason, Shang Yang called agriculture and war "the One." Guan Zhong, Chanakya (the author of Arthashastra) and Hannibal expressed similar concepts. At the dawn of history, the Sumerians believed that if agriculture of a state declines, Inanna, the goddess of war, leaves this state. Several gods of antiquity combined the functions of what Shang Yang called "the One" - agriculture and war: the Hittite Sun goddess of Arinna, the Canaanite Lahmu and the Roman Janus. These were highly important gods in their time leaving their legacy until today. We still begin the year with the month of Janus (January). The Jews believe that Messiah's family will originate in the town of Lahmu ( Bethlehem); in Hebrew, beit lehem literally means "house of bread". Christians believe that Jesus Christ, who is said to have been born in Bethlehem, is the messiah. Lahmu is the reason why, in Hebrew, bread ( lehem) and warfare ( milhama) are of the same root.[citation needed ] In fact, most persistent and flourishing empires throughout history in both hemispheres were centered in regions fertile for cereals.

Historian Max Ostrovsky argues that this historic pattern never changed, not even in the Industrial Age. He stresses that all modern great powers have traditionally remained first and foremost great cereal powers. The "finest hour" of the Axis powers "ended precisely the moment they threw themselves against the two largest cereal lebensraums" (the United States and the USSR). The outcome of the Cold War followed the Soviet grave and long-lasting cereal crisis, exacerbated by the cereal embargo imposed on the USSR in 1980. And, called "the grain basket of the world," the most productive "cereal lebensraum" dominates the world ever since.

Having analyzed the mechanism at work behind this pattern, Ostrovsky outlined that the cereal power determines the percentage of manpower available to non-agricultural sectors including the heavy industry vital for military power. He emphasized that chronologically the Industrial Revolution follows the modern Agricultural Revolution and spatially the world's industrial regions are bound to cereal regions. Taken from space, map of the global illumination is said to indicate by its brightest parts the industrial regions. These regions coincide with cereal regions. Ostrovsky formulized a universal indicator of national power valid for all periods: total cereal tonnage produced by one percent of nation's manpower. For the present, this indicator demonstrates a unipolar international hierarchy.

During the second half of the 20th century there was a significant increase in the production of high-yield cereal crops worldwide, especially wheat and rice, due to an initiative known as the Green Revolution. The strategies developed by the Green Revolution focused on fending off starvation and increasing yield-per-plant, and were very successful in raising overall yields of cereal grains, but did not give sufficient relevance to nutritional quality. These modern high yield-cereal crops tend have low quality proteins, with essential amino acid deficiencies, are high in carbohydrates, and lack balanced essential fatty acids, vitamins, minerals and other quality factors. So-called ancient grains and heirloom varieties have seen an increase in popularity with the "organic" movements of the early 21st century, but there is a tradeoff in yield-per-plant, putting pressure on resource-poor areas as food crops are replaced with cash crops.

While each individual species has its own peculiarities, the cultivation of all cereal crops is similar. Most are annual plants; consequently one planting yields one harvest. Wheat, rye, triticale, oats, barley, and spelt are the "cool-season" cereals. These are hardy plants that grow well in moderate weather and cease to grow in hot weather (approximately 30 °C or 85 °F, but this varies by species and variety). The "warm-season" cereals are tender and prefer hot weather. Barley and rye are the hardiest cereals, able to overwinter in the subarctic and Siberia. Many cool-season cereals are grown in the tropics. However, some are only grown in cooler highlands, where it ' "may" ' be possible to grow multiple crops per year.

For the past few decades, there has also been increasing interest in perennial grain plants. This interest developed due to advantages in erosion control, reduced need for fertiliser, and potential lowered costs to the farmer. Though research is still in early stages, The Land Institute in Salina, Kansas has been able to create a few cultivars that produce a fairly good crop yield.

The warm-season cereals are grown in tropical lowlands year-round and in temperate climates during the frost-free season. Rice is commonly grown in flooded fields, though some strains are grown on dry land. Other warm climate cereals, such as sorghum, are adapted to arid conditions.

Cool-season cereals are well-adapted to temperate climates. Most varieties of a particular species are either winter or spring types. Winter varieties are sown in the autumn, germinate and grow vegetatively, then become dormant during winter. They resume growing in the springtime and mature in late spring or early summer. This cultivation system makes optimal use of water and frees the land for another crop early in the growing season.

Winter varieties do not flower until springtime because they require vernalization: exposure to low temperatures for a genetically determined length of time. Where winters are too warm for vernalization or exceed the hardiness of the crop (which varies by species and variety), farmers grow spring varieties. Spring cereals are planted in early springtime and mature later that same summer, without vernalization. Spring cereals typically require more irrigation and yield less than winter cereals.

Harvesting

Once the cereal plants have grown their seeds, they have completed their life cycle. The plants die, become brown, and dry. As soon as the parent plants and their seed kernels are reasonably dry, harvest can begin.

In developed countries, cereal crops are universally machine-harvested, typically using a combine harvester, which cuts, threshes, and winnows the grain during a single pass across the field. In developing countries, a variety of harvesting methods are in use, depending on the cost of labor, from combines to hand tools such as the scythe or grain cradle.

If a crop is harvested during humid weather, the grain may not dry adequately in the field to prevent spoilage during its storage. In this case, the grain is sent to a dehydrating facility, where artificial heat dries it.

In North America, farmers commonly deliver their newly harvested grain to a grain elevator, a large storage facility that consolidates the crops of many farmers. The farmer may sell the grain at the time of delivery or maintain ownership of a share of grain in the pool for later sale. Storage facilities should be protected from small grain pests, rodents and birds.

The following table shows the annual production of cereals in 1961, 1980, 2000, 2010, 2018 and 2019/2020.

Grain

Worldwide production
(millions of metric tons)

Notes

205

397

592

852

1,148

1,148

A staple food of people in the Americas, Africa, and of livestock worldwide; often called corn in North America, Australia, and New Zealand. A large portion of maize crops are grown for purposes other than human consumption.

Rice Production is in milled terms.

285

397

599

480

506

755

The primary cereal of tropical and some temperate regions. Staple food in most of Brazil (both maize and manioc/ cassava were once more important and their presence is still stronger in some areas), other parts of Latin America and some other Portuguese-descended cultures, parts of Africa (even more before the Columbian exchange), most of South Asia and the Far East. Largely overridden by breadfruit (a dicot tree) during the South Pacific's part of the Austronesian expansion.

222

440

585

641

734

768

The primary cereal of temperate regions. It has a worldwide consumption but it is a staple food of North America, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, most of the Southern Cone and much of the Greater Middle East. Wheat gluten-based meat substitutes are important in the Far East (albeit less than tofu) and said to resemble meat texture more than others.

26

25

28

33

31

28

A group of similar but distinct cereals that form an important staple food in Asia and Africa.

50

41

26

20

23

Popular worldwide as a breakfast food and livestock feed. In human consumption, oats can be served as porridge as oatmeal, although oats could be eaten in various different forms other than rolled oats, including unprocessed oats.

Maize, wheat, and rice together accounted for 89% of all cereal production worldwide in 2012, and 43% of the global supply of food energy in 2009, while the production of oats and rye have drastically fallen from their 1960s levels.

Other cereals not included in FAO statistics, include:

Teff, an ancient grain that is a staple in Ethiopia and grown in sub-Saharan Africa as a grass primarily for feeding horses. It is high in fiber and protein. Its flour is often used to make injera. It can also be eaten as a warm breakfast cereal similar to farina with a chocolate or nutty flavor. Its flour and whole grain products can usually be found in natural foods stores.

Wild rice, grown in small amounts in North America.

Several other species of wheat have also been domesticated, some very early in the history of agriculture:

Spelt, a close relative of common wheat.

Einkorn, a wheat species with a single grain.

Emmer, one of the first crops domesticated in the Fertile Crescent.

Durum, the only tetraploid species of wheat currently cultivated, used to make semolina flour.

Kamut, an ancient relative of durum with an unknown history.

In 2013 global cereal production was a then record 2,521 million tonnes. The FAO 2019/2020 global cereal production estimate released in December 2020 is 2,706 million tonnes and the forecast for the 2020/2021 season was 2.741 million tonnes.

The FAO reports the major wheat exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States. The major coarse grain exporters are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, the EU, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam.

Some grains are deficient in the essential amino acid, lysine. That is why many vegetarian cultures, in order to get a balanced diet, combine their diet of grains with legumes. Many legumes, however, are deficient in the essential amino acid methionine, which grains contain. Thus, a combination of legumes with grains forms a well-balanced diet for vegetarians. Common examples of such combinations are dal (lentils) with rice by South Indians and Bengalis, dal with wheat in Pakistan and North India, beans with corn tortillas, tofu with rice, and peanut butter with wheat bread (as sandwiches) in several other cultures, including the Americas. The amount of crude protein measured in grains is expressed as grain crude protein concentration.

Cereals contain exogenous opioid food peptides called exorphins such as gluten exorphin. They mimic the actions of endorphines because they bind to the same opioid receptors in the brain.

The ISO has published a series of standards regarding cereal products which are covered by ICS 67.060.

Media related to Cereals at Wikimedia Commons The dictionary definition of cereal at Wiktionary

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A cereal is any grass cultivated (grown) for the edible components of its grain (botanically, a type of fruit called a caryopsis), composed of the endosperm, germ, and bran. The term may also refer to the resulting grain itself (specifically " cereal grain").