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Presented by Prajwal Parmar, Individual Endeavour.

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Red Flag: Confusion and Correlation with Causation

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Red Flag: Confusion and Correlation with Causation

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Definition:
This is the natural human tendency to assume that, if two events or phenomena consistently occur at about the same time, then one is the cause of the other. Hence “rooster syndrome”, from the rooster who believed that his crowing caused the sun to rise.

For example, believing that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator when it is only the wind does not cost much, but believing that a dangerous predator is the wind may cost an animal its life

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Definition: People who use this tactic try to persuade you that a certain explanation, treatment or model must be correct because it’s been around for a long time.

Connection: The following Article shows how these things are related to

Triskaidekaphobia.

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If you find yourself hoping a model is true instead of judging the evidence, show yourself a red flag.

How to recognise this tactic

We all fall victim to this tactic because we use it on ourselves. We like to believe things that conform with our wishes or desires, even to the extent of ignoring evidence to the contrary.

Science is the one domain in which we human beings make a truly heroic effort to counter our innate biases and wishful thinking. Science is the one endeavor in which we have developed a refined methodology for separating what a person hopes is true from what he has good reason to believe.

Sam Harris, American neuroscientist and author, 2007

Whenever a group of people "desperately wants to believe" something, there will always be someone willing to tell them what they want to hear, whether the opportunists are charlatans or simply nutjobs.

Barry Bickmore, American geochemist, 2012

Why do people use this tactic?

We use this tactic on ourselves. It's hard to avoid because it's part of human nature. We prefer things to turn out the way we would like them to turn out. Unfortunately, some people exploit this human trait and use it for their own benefit.

What's wrong with this tactic

When we engage in wishful thinking, we avoid proper evidence from the real world. This means we are likely to come to conclusions that are unscientific and false.

What to do when confronted by this tactic

Be aware that everyone is vulnerable to wishful thinking. Acknowledge that you are no different, look for the signs, and guard against the temptation to dismiss evidence that doesn't support your wishes. Beware of those who try to exploit your tendency for wishful thinking and discipline yourself to accept only conclusion that are supported by real-world evidence.

Variations and related tactics

Wishful thinkers can recruit just about any dubious tactic or logical fallacy to help them avoid the evidence. The predominant one is confirmation bias, in which we favour information that confirms our existing beliefs. Another is expectation bias, in which investigators look for only those results that favour their own model. Sometimes wishful thinking masquerades as 'positive thinking', in which we refuse to accept the possibility of results we don't like.

Examples

Further reading

Science deniers reject authority and facts by Patrick Stokes at The Sydney Morning Herald.

Add to the list of examples by leaving a comment.

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Wishful thinking - favouring fantasy over fact

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If you find yourself hoping a model is true instead of judging the evidence, show yourself a red flag. How to recognise this tactic We all fall victim to this tactic because we use it on ourselves. We like to believe things that conform with our wishes or desires, even to the extent of ignoring...

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Definition: This tactic shows up when people make claims in the form of bald statements – “this is the way it is” or “this is true” or “I know/believe this” or “everybody knows this” – without any reference to supporting evidence.

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Definition: An ideology is a set of ideas.

Connection:
This is a set of Ideation passed from Generation to Generation and this is how the Young ones of our generation Inherit from their parents and thus is very peculiar as the start walking on the footsteps of their parents.

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Definition:
When confronted with the unexplained we try to explain it ourselves.

Connection:
Sometimes we perceive things by using our senses of sight, hearing, and smell. Or we can use our mind to perceive things, which means that we are able to recognize or understand them

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Definition:
An emotional connection is a bundle of subjective feelings that come together to create a bond between two people.

Connection:
A negative or traumatic event occurring in someone’s life on the 13thday of the month might also trigger Triskaidekaphobia.
Movies, news reports, and books on this topic can all enhance this fear.
The phobia might also be associated with other phobias like Thanatophobia, Agoraphobia etc.  People already suffering from anxiety or panic disorders are more likely to experience Triskaidekaphobia

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Definition: The tendency to process information by looking for, or interpreting, information that is consistent with one’s existing beliefs. This biased approach to decision making is largely unintentional and often results in ignoring inconsistent information.

This is a cognitive bias that we all suffer from. We go out of our way to look for evidence that confirms our ideas and avoid evidence that would contradict them.

Connection:
Confirmation bias is strong and widespread, occurring in several contexts. In the context of decision making, once an individual makes a decision, he or she will look for information that supports it. Information that conflicts with the decision may cause discomfort and is therefore ignored or given little consideration. People give special treatment to information that supports their personal beliefs. In studies examining the my-side bias, people were able to generate and remember more reasons supporting their side of a controversial issue than the opposing side. Only when a researcher directly asked people to generate arguments against their own beliefs were they able to do so. It is not that people are incapable of generating arguments that are counter to their beliefs but, rather, people are not motivated to do so.

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Word File

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Definition: Sometimes we perceive things by using our senses of sight, hearing, and smell. Or we can use our mind to perceive things, which means that we are able to recognize or understand them.