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Business cycle is weakening materially, especially in Europe. Developments in China are a major concern. The US looks relatively strong with strong fiscal support an lower energy prices.

CB's communication and reactions to lower growth and inflation will be key to watch.

Eroded purchasing power may lead to a sudden fall back of inflation. This could be enough for CB:s to halt and eventually reverse policy. This in turn could be an inflection point for risk assets.

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Conflict in Taiwan, companies pulling out of China

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Conflict in Taiwan, companies pulling out of China

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US  going strong for longer - higher for longer interest rates is bad news for the rest of the world

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US  going strong for longer - higher for longer interest rates is bad news for the rest of the world

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financial systems crashes, central banks steps in, stops QT starts QE, accepts inflation, results in melt up in equities

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financial systems crashes, central banks steps in, stops QT starts QE, accepts inflation, results in melt up in equities

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core inflation is falling faster than expected

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core inflation is falling faster than expected

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Atomic bomb and the Russian relation to China

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Atomic bomb and the Russian relation to China

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Price hikes are, anecdotally, harder to implement as of late. A sign that inflation will roll over.

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High energy / electricty prices during winter will cause inflation to stay elevated in Europe.

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Inflation proof today. But more quality and sustaibable growth from 2023….

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Inflation proof today. But more quality and sustaibable growth from 2023….

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Inflation expectations surprised

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Hi