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The use of renewables is increasing, but so is the demand for more energy, meaning that the development of renewables to create energy, is not increasing fast enough to keep pace with our economies. We are still too reliant on fossil fuel for energy creation, so we must continue to transition away from fossil fuels.  (Ref Science Direct)

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Our Goal: Limit Global warming to 1.5-2.0 degrees  by 2100

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Our Goal: Limit Global warming to 1.5-2.0 degrees  by 2100

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The purpose of this presentation is to demonstrate ways that I have deepened my knowledge and understanding of climate change and climate action.  It is designed to be shared with students who like me, are unsure where to start in becoming active in the climate space. In the second part of the presentation I delve deeper into one of the developmental models that we were presented with in Terra.do course, Namely Sustainable Development in Costa Rica.

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Global warming means that the earth's atmosphere is heating up. The warming atmosphere and oceans are destabilizing our climate, which causes many secondary effects like forest fires, heavy rain, rising sea levels, biodiversity loss, and droughts.

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To do this we must reduce CO2 Emissions.

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To do this we must reduce CO2 Emissions.

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CO2 emissions are reduced by eliminating emission sources and by natural or technical sequestration (carbon sinks) to draw down any residual emissions.

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The Terra.do course teaches us that the primary human activity that contributes to global warming is the burning of fossil fuels for energy- electricity, heat and transport. Agricultural methods, land use, industry and buildings (construction and inefficient building stock) also contribute to increased carbon in the atmosphere.

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Climate models are complex computer models that use many thousands of input points based on real world data. You can tweak climate models to simulate weather patterns and sea level rises.  We can use them to demonstrate that the global warming and resulting climate changes are mostly being caused by human activity.

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We can also use climate models to demonstrate that the rising temperatures are causing cumulative effects in weather systems, causing weather to be more intense; example droughts are more likely to last longer and hurricanes are more likely to be stronger and deadlier.

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Climate models tell us that if we continue on this trajectory of carbon creation and rising global average temperature, many areas of the earth will become inhospitable to life.  Ref: Probable Futures)

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Might occur if global warming pushes part of the earth's systems into irreversible change :ref Carbon Brief. Climate models cannot predict when this will happen.

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The concept of “carbon budget” is used to identify how much carbon can be emitted in order to stay under a particular temperature threshold and avoid certain impacts.
We must reduce it, using incremental steps as listed by the Climate Change Advisory Board.

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We know that we must use many different tools and techniques to both pull down carbon in the atmosphere (carbon sinks) and reduce or prevent new carbon from entering the atmosphere (through legislation, new economic  models, global north-south funding towards alleviating the problem, and many more as detailed on EN ROADS model)

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As well as the target areas listed in the EN-ROADS simulator, there are over 103 areas to focus on, listed in the Project drawdown website here and here.

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Terra.do introduced us to The EN-ROADS carbon and temperature simulator, from "Climate Interactive". This is a decision support model that can help people to understand the impact that changing policies have on carbon levels. I found this a very important tool to have in my arsenal because it of the interrelationships aspect, that also includes societal and equity factors

It is a way to help people understand how systems interrelate-example carbon tax can increase the use of renewables or investment in technology. But, the carbon tax cannot be too high as to impact negatively on people who cannot afford the investment to transition to renewables. Therefore it makes one consider subsidies.

In another example: changing Afforestation alone will not change CO2 levels. Afforestation in combination with agriculture and land use changes, will. This is because Afforestation (used alone, in one place) may lead to deforestation elsewhere. This is known as leakage. Therefore these two dials should be operated together.
I can see myself training to be an EN-ROADS ambassador.

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IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change policies include: abatement technologies, taxes and charges (for undesirable activities) Subsidies and tax returns (for carbon reduction activities), tradable permits, and required public disclosures from firms and governments on their carbon reduction activities. The IPCC wording is a little inaccessible/hard to understand because it is the legal agreements of many governments and many scientists. As well as paid scientists, there are over 700 volunteers who work on summarising over 50,000 articles in order to feed into the policy agreements on this document. It's updated every 7 yrs. See the summary of IPCC at the bottom.

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The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France in 2015

Its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

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We should  see the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit as a “defense line”.  If the world can keep below this line, it potentially could avoid the more extreme and irreversible climate effects that would occur with a 2 degrees Celsius increase. However  it is not a magic number or a guarantee of stability: even at 1.5 degrees warming, many areas of the planet are experiencing extreme climate difficulties, expensive clean ups operations and biodiversity loss.

Climate change won’t stop until we reach net zero emissions; keeping warming closer to 1.5C will avoid worst impacts of climate change   (Ref MIT News Aug 2023)

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In 2022, the average global temperature was about 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, which means that we have hit the defense line.
According to the WMO, there is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. (Ref WMO July 2023)

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The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France in 2015
This is also a reporting tool.
Its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

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The difference between 1.5 and 2.0 is illustrated in this WWF infographic.
The graphic demonstrates data for how much of the global population will be impacted by sea level rises, and other effects such as declining ocean productivity, biodiversity loss, heat waves and severe drought.

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In Terra.do we covered 4 types of mental models.

1. Climate impacts and costs

2. Economic Growth Vs Degrowth

3. Systems & Justice lenses

4. Masculine Vs Feminine Framings

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These are models that work for humans and the environment:
In Terra.do we covered

1. Sarvodaya Shramadana Movement(Sri Lanka)

2. Green New Deal (USA)

3. Sustainable Development in Costa Rica

4. Doughnut economics

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Economic GDP growth model VS Development model

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Economic GDP growth model VS Development model

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GDP growth lies at the heart of most Govt policy objectives. Many Economies link increased GDP with success of a country in terms of human wealth, education and health.

At the moment, global GDP growth is increasing by 3% each year, driving the global demand for energy increasingly higher.
If GDP growth is averaging 3%, and we are only reducing carbon through renewables by 1.9% each year, (Ref Guardian article) then our carbon count is heading in the wrong direction.

Could it be that measuring our success by GDP alone, gives too narrow a view of what is good for the world?
What would happen if we focused at producing less GDP (economic degrowth rater than growth)? What if we were to challenge the statement 'Wealthier is healthier'? (Ref article by Pritchett & Summers)

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Costa Rica is a country that bucks that widely held view that high GDP = Successful country. In Costa Rica GDP is low.

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Costa Rica is set to become the first completely carbon neutral nation

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Costa Rica is set to become the first completely carbon neutral nation

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In addition, this country produces a high standard of living for it's citizens and poses minimal pressure on resources and the environment,  (Ref Guardian article)

For this reason I have chosen to dive deeper into the Costa Rican Development model.

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Here is what I have found

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Energy-99% comes from Renewable Resources

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Energy-99% comes from Renewable Resources

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1)      70-75% of electricity comes from hydropower, in addition, the dams are set up to allow aquatic wildlife to swim through, protected from the turbines. (ref: Youtube Costa Rica’s last green mile)

2)      17% from windpower, 13.5% geothermal, with solar energy panels filling the shortfall.

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Costa Rica has more than doubled the proportion of its landmass to forestry since 1984, to 52% in 2020. The government paid landowners to plant trees. (Ref Grist article). Forests can absorb carbon and increase biodiversity.

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Costa Rica is home to 6% of the world’s biodiversity, which are situated inside functioning ecosystems. Costa Rica has created protected zones and incentivized farmers to plant native trees (Ref Financial Times)

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Leading others in Biodiversity Protection

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Leading others in Biodiversity Protection

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The Costa Rican Govt also is a founding member of the High ambition Coalition for Nature and people. -This is an intergovernmental group of 115 countries, with the gaol being for each country to put 30% of their oceans and 30% of their land mass under protection, because ecosystems and conservation measures are the natural solutions within our reach.

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Since the 1940’s, the Government has invested heavily in education, healthcare and welfare assistance (Ref Grist article). This places people in the position to learn about the best ways to care for their environment whilst at the same time improving their standard of living.

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Cooperative systems owned locally (not big corporations)

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Cooperative systems owned locally (not big corporations)

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The development of institutions in Costa Rica — like farmers’ cooperatives and a stable government — has allowed more rapid diffusion of new ideas and technologies to lots of small farmers. (Ref Grist). It has pulled its population out of poverty.

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Proof that decarbonisation can have Economic Benefits

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Proof that decarbonisation can have Economic Benefits

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Under all but 22 of the more than 3,000 plausible futures considered, implementation of the decarbonization plan would lead to economic benefits that exceed the costs. (Ref: Key Findings RAND report)

Under baseline assumptions, decarbonization would yield $41 billion in net benefits to Costa Rica between 2020 and 2050, using a 5 percent discount rate. (Ref: Key Findings RAND report)

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The Govt. of Costa Rica established a full ban on oil exploration. In addition, increased taxes on fuel, are reinvested in afforestation . (ref: Youtube Costa Rica’s last green mile)
Established a buy back programme for normal cars to incentivize use of electric cars.

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Costa Rica has the third-highest car ownership rate in Latin America, so decreasing the reliance on cars and switching to more eco-friendly forms of travel will be essential for the country meeting net zero by 2050. (Ref: business leader).

Traffic emissions account for 54% of Costa Rica's Greenhouse Gas emissions (Ref BBC Future)

The country has a very high use of pesticides outside of the protected areas.  (Ref Pesticides burden in Costa Rica)

Nearly 80% of Costa Rica’s population live in areas of high risk from multiple climate hazards, for example exposure to wildfires and drought. The costs of climate related extreme weather events are high and could reach 1.6-2.5% of GDP by 2025.  (Ref: OECD Environmental Performance review of Costa Rica 2023)

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Although Costa Rica has some way to go in terms of ecological footprint, it is still a worthy role model for other countries to follow.

Costa Rice demonstrates good systems thinking, electrification of the grid, and protection of lands and protection of biodiversity. In addition, it is one of the first countries to go carbon neutral, without having to place unnecessary burden on the country's resources and on the standard of living of its population.

Lastly but no less important, Costa Rica has provided a good standard of living, and stability for its population, and the country is one of the happier places in the world to live (Ref Happy Planet Index)

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Ref Clinical Psychology Oct 2023

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Finding ways to instill hope could therefore be seen as vital. Our communications about climate change must adapt and improve in order to get at least 1 million people working in climate solutions by 2030.

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Ref Hope & Climate Change Research Gate 2011

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The participants, among other things, agreed to strengthen efforts to build resilience to climate change, to curb greenhouse gas emissions and to provide the necessary finance for both. They collectively agreed to work to reduce the gap between existing emission reduction plans and what is required to reduce emissions, so that the rise in the global average temperature can be limited to 1.5 degrees.

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How Three Small Countries Are Teaching The World About Sustainable Energy

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They are three of the worlds smallest nations Bhutan, Suriname and Panama but they have taught countries many times their size, a lesson in how to implement sustainable energy

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As part of the education for sustainability goals, we have the greencomp document, European sustainability competencies, which talks about competencies that feed into the education framework, and is divided into knowledge, skills and attitudes. It consists four interrelated competence areas: ‘embodying sustainability values’, (not being afraid of the points of view of other people and becoming comfortable with being part of the problem'. ‘embracing complexity in sustainability’ (interrelated systems, social problems, being comfortable with the complexity, no simple solution, wicked problems) , ‘envisioning sustainable futures’ and ‘acting for sustainability’. Each area comprises three competences that are interlinked and equally important.

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GreenComp, the European sustainability competence framework - Publications Office of the EU

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The development of a European sustainability competence framework is one of the policy actions set out in the European Green Deal as a catalyst to promote learning on environmental sustainability in the European Union. GreenComp identifies a set of sustainability competences to feed into education programmes to help learners develop knowledge, skills and attitudes that promote ways to think, plan and act with empathy, responsibility, and care for our planet and for public health. This work began with a literature review and drew on several consultations with experts and stakeholders working in the field of sustainability education and lifelong learning. The results presented in this report form a framework for learning for environmental sustainability that can be applied in any learning context. The report shares working definitions of sustainability and learning for environmental sustainability that forms the basis for the framework to build consensus and bridge the gap between experts and other stakeholders. GreenComp comprises four interrelated competence areas: ‘embodying sustainability values’, ‘embracing complexity in sustainability’, ‘envisioning sustainable futures’ and ‘acting for sustainability’. Each area comprises three competences that are interlinked and equally important. GreenComp is designed to be a non-prescriptive reference for learning schemes fostering sustainability as a competence