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On New Year's Eve, Britain will finally leave the European Union, after more than four years of negotiations-talks that are still ongoing as the clock ticks down.

It is unclear what the conclusion of those negotiations will be, but one thing is for certain: The United Kingdom will need new alliances beyond its current relationships.

The options aren't attractive. The European Union is likely to feel irked by the U.K.'s animosity to the bloc and its aggressive negotiating stance for years to come. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has been all but hostile to Brexit, publicly raising concerns about its implications for peace in Northern Ireland. And London is also on a collision course with Beijing after offering asylum to millions of Hong Kongers and banning Chinese-owned Huawei from providing the infrastructure to build up a 5G network.

On New Year's Eve, Britain will finally leave the European Union, after more than four years of negotiations-talks that are still ongoing as the clock ticks down.

It is unclear what the conclusion of those negotiations will be, but one thing is for certain: The United Kingdom will need new alliances beyond its current relationships.

The options aren't attractive. The European Union is likely to feel irked by the U.K.'s animosity to the bloc and its aggressive negotiating stance for years to come. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has been all but hostile to Brexit, publicly raising concerns about its implications for peace in Northern Ireland. And London is also on a collision course with Beijing after offering asylum to millions of Hong Kongers and banning Chinese-owned Huawei from providing the infrastructure to build up a 5G network.

But there's one underappreciated alternative: the Commonwealth.

The Commonwealth is a voluntary association of 54 independent and equal countries, home to 2.4 billion people-almost a third of the world's population-and over 10 percent of global GDP. The Commonwealth has its roots in the British Empire, but any nation can apply to become a part of it. Rwanda, which was never colonized by the British, joined as the association's newest member in 2009. The group is based on shared values, like parliamentary democracy, as well as diplomatic, governmental, and commercial ties. In short, it's everything a power bloc needs.

Within the United Kingdom, the Commonwealth is often dismissed as a colonial hangover with no 21st-century purpose. But it could be remade as a trade bloc of countries with historical ties, long-established economic relations, similar administrative and legal systems, and facility with a shared language.

A focus on the Commonwealth as an entity would be far more effective than the piecemeal approach to bilateral trade deals that the United Kingdom has pursued so far. A trade deal with non-Commonwealth member Japan, for example, signed in September, means that nearly all U.K. exports to Japan will be tariff free. In return, British tariffs on Japanese cars will be lifted by 2026. Although the trade deal is forecast to boost trade between Japan and Britain by $20 billion, it is only expected to increase British GDP by 0.07 percent.

There will need to be dozens and dozens of such trade deals to make a dent in the loss of EU trade caused by Brexit. More significant one-off trade deals (for example with the United States) could achieve the growth needed, but they seem increasingly difficult, especially given the strain the coronavirus pandemic and recession have placed on the negotiating countries. Meanwhile, although a U.S.-U.K. free trade deal has been the centerpiece of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's post-Brexit vision, the Irish American congressional lobby and the incoming Biden administration itself are more cool to the idea. Biden has already warned Johnson that a trade deal with the United States is incompatible with his current Brexit strategy. There are similar blocks to a deal with Brussels. Europhiles see the United Kingdom as undermining the union. Why should it be rewarded now?

A big free trade deal with the Commonwealth, though could be easier. To be sure, there will be some skepticism toward the idea. Economists such as Walter Isard believe that Commonwealth members do not make natural trade and commerce partners, owing to what is known as the " gravity model" -geographic distance has a negative impact on economic cooperation. That may have been true a year ago, but in a tech-enabled "work from anywhere" post-pandemic world, geography matters less.

Another argument is that the Commonwealth is simply too small to matter. In an op-ed for the , Johnson pointed out that "Today, the Commonwealth has a combined GDP of $10.5trillion, accounting for almost 14 per cent of the global economy." That is about half of the EU's GDP. But what the Commonwealth lacks in size, it more than makes up for in growth. Over the past four decades, Commonwealth economies have grown at an average rate of above four percent, compared with the EU's 2 percent.

There's also the type of growth to consider. The EU has a chronic inability to produce tech "unicorns": start-up companies with a value of over $1 billion. Considering the easy access to venture capital and private equity in the major EU financial centers, not to mention the ubiquity of accelerator programs, the lack of big start-ups suggests a structural deficiency in the continent's business and innovation culture, as well as the smaller home market.

But the next generation of unicorns could come from Commonwealth countries, especially with the U.K. backing them to preserve and increase their global standing. If cross-border barriers are sufficiently reduced so that the Commonwealth effectively becomes one large single market, the market will be far larger than the United States or China.

The quality of the market is great from a growth and innovation perspective, too. Such countries as Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Nigeria, and Pakistan have young, skilled populations. All they need is the investment and support. Already, in many of these countries, the COVID-19 pandemic has been a catalyst for a subtle shift toward digital commerce, precisely the sector venture capitalists are attracted to.

For example, in Nigeria, a Commonwealth member and Africa's largest economy, Klasha, a company that allows users to buy and sell items across Africa, has seen exponential growth since the pandemic and is tipped to become the African Stripe or PayPal. Across the Commonwealth, there are dozens of tech start-ups with a revenue of $100 million to $200 million a year, and growing year-on-year. The investment potential is far from realized. Their business models could easily be replicated at scale across the world.

London would be smart to improve access to the United Kingdom for this entrepreneurial talent by granting entrepreneur visas-a form of migration that has been inexplicably and self-defeatingly reduced or eliminated by the government in recent years. It should also invest venture capital in these countries. There is currently no viable visa that would allow the potential founders of these innovative start-ups access to the U.K., and there is no targeted British Sovereign Wealth Fund that can profit from their projects. There should be.

In 2018, Ipsos Mori found that the Brexit referendum resulted in a net positive effect on the U.K.'s perceived attractiveness in the Commonwealth countries of India, South Africa, and others. Even the most inward-looking and parochial of Brits should welcome entrepreneurs from those countries to their shores-as well as increasing economic partnership in general.

As Brexit's final chapter closes, the Commonwealth, established in 1931, may finally be coming of age nearly a century later. As it does, it may also start to deliver on its name for its billions of citizens-with the right investment.

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On New Year's Eve, Britain will finally leave the European Union, after more than four years of negotiations-talks that are still ongoing as the clock ticks down. It is unclear what the conclusion of those negotiations will be, but one thing is for certain: The United Kingdom will need new alliances beyond its current relationships.

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Business and the Commonwealth (II): Exploring the notion of a “Commonwealth advantage” in trade

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Prospects for quick recovery in word trade

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Prospects for quick recovery in word trade

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Prospects for quick recovery in word trade improve: WTO

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GENEVAProspects for a quick recovery in world trade have improved amid an expansion more rapid than expected in the second half of last year, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Wednesday es…

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One of Brexit's potential advantages is the UK's freedom to negotiate its own trade deals instead of being dependent on the EU. Of course, trade will continue with the EU after Brexit, probably little changed, and there is little doubt that the EU will continue to be a major trading partner after Brexit. But it is widely expected that the share of UK exports going to the EU will continue to decline, reflecting the maturity of the EU markets and the continuing decline of the EU's share of global output. New deals are likely to be with countries as diverse as the US and Japan - and, of course, individual Commonwealth countries. Australia and Canada, for example, have already expressed interest in a free trade agreement. In this post, Ruth Lea, CBE (Arbuthnot Banking Group), explains why trading with the Commonwealth offers buoyant economic prospects.
The current biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), being held in London on 16-20 April, seems a suitable time to analyse the economic importance of Commonwealth countries and consider their potential as future growth markets for UK exports.
The Commonwealth: buoyant economic prospects
Commonwealth countries are rarely considered together as an economic entity. Yet they account for over 17% of world GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms (chart 1a) and contain 2.4 billion of the world's 7½ billion people. Moreover, many Commonwealth countries have favourable demographics compared with several major European countries, where working populations are expected to age and shrink. Today's 53-member Commonwealth spans the five continents and contains developed, emerging and developing economies. It also comprises some of the world's largest economies and many of the smallest. In its diversity, it captures the character of the 21 st century globalised economy as no other economic grouping can. The Commonwealth's membership includes two of the world's largest ten economies (the UK and India), two members of the G7 (Canada and the UK) and five members of the G20 (the UK, India, Canada, Australia and South Africa).

Charts 1a and 1b show the IMF's latest forecasts to 2022 for EU28, the US, China and the Commonwealth in Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and at Market Exchange Rates (MERs). 1-2 Chart 1a (in PPPs) shows just how profoundly the world economy has changed since 1980 and is projected to continue changing up to 2022. EU28 countries accounted for 30% of world GDP in 1980, whilst the US contributed nearly 22% and the Commonwealth contributed 15%. China's share was just over 2%. By 2017, China had increased its share to over 18%, reflecting China's staggering growth over the past 30 years, which exceeded the Commonwealth (over 17%), the EU28 (down to 16.5%) and the US (still over 15%). Crucially these trends are expected to continue to 2022, with China and the Commonwealth (not least of all because of India's buoyant growth) expecting to gain share over the EU28 and the US.
Chart 1a Shares of world GDP (PPP terms), %
Chart 1b (in MERs) shows how currency effects can affect the GDP data. For example, the strong dollar in 2000 "boosted" the US's share (in MERs) to over 30%. Inevitably, the forecasts are dependent on forecasts of currency movements, which make them even more than usually non-robust. The decline in the EU28 share in MERs over the forecast period less pronounced than in PPPs because GDP in MERs favours developed countries. But, nevertheless, the global share had dropped from 34% in 1980 to 21½% in 2017 and is projected to slide further by 2022. The rise in the Commonwealth's share is considerably dampened in MER terms, not least of all because the significance of India, where GDP in MER terms is significantly lower than in PPP terms. But it is still expected to more than hold its share.
Chart 1b Shares of world GDP (MER terms), %

UK-Commonwealth trade
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, database, October 2017.

Given the relatively buoyant growth prospects in Commonwealth countries, UK export growth prospects to these countries should be favourable, especially if free trade agreements are successfully negotiated. There are two other general points worth noting. The first is the observation that, because of shared history and commonalities of language, law and business practice, it has been estimated that Commonwealth countries trading with one another experience business costs 10-15% lower than similar dealings with non-Commonwealth countries of comparable size and GDP. This has been called the "Commonwealth advantage". ³

The second point notes that the potential in any export market does not, of course, just reflect the size of the economy. It is also a matter of the relative incomes per capita in various export markets. Especially when it comes to consumer goods, potential consumers need to have the kind of disposable incomes that will allow them to buy the cars, televisions and other goods that have been staples of "middle class" life in the West for decades. And, on this metric, developed countries still have a very appreciable lead over emerging and developing countries. According to the IMF, income per capita was 7 times as high in Germany as in India in PPP terms in 2017, and 24 times as a high in MER terms. The corresponding figures for China were still as high as 3 times and 5 times respectively.

But, looking forward, the potential growth of the middle classes in the emerging markets, not least of all in India and China, is expected to change matters radically. A report by Ernst & Young (EY) on this issue concluded: ⁴

"...by 2030, so many people will have escaped poverty that the balance of geopolitical power will have completely changed - global trade patterns will be unrecognizable too. Meanwhile, companies accustomed to serving the middle-income brackets of the old Western democracies will need to decide how they can effectively supply the new bourgeois of Africa, Asia and beyond."

Specifically concerning China and India, EY said "...large populations and rapid economic growth mean China and India will become the powerhouses of middle class consumerism over the next two decades."

Turning to the UK's current trade with our major Commonwealth partners the main conclusion is that it is still relatively modest compared with the EU. This is not, of course, surprising given the relative size and wealth of many of the EU's members. UK-Commonwealth trade is also modest relative to the US (especially) and, arguably, China. Clearly, there is potential for expansion.
Chart 2a UK exports in goods and services, growth between 2006 & 2016 (%)
Chart 2a shows exports grew by just over 31% to the top eight Commonwealth countries over the decade 2006-2016 compared with total export growth of 40%. ⁵ Trade with India, Pakistan and South Africa, in particular, was disappointing. As a consequence, the share of UK exports to these eight Commonwealth destinations actually fell from 7.5% in 2006 to 7.0% in 2016. Commonwealth trade, nevertheless, outstripped the rise of just over 11% to the EU28. Exports to the US (which took over 18% of UK exports in 2016) were up over 55% and exports to China more than tripled, though from a very low base. Other buoyant non-EU markets included Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, the Residual Gulf Arabian Countries and Hong Kong. Chart 2b notes that, even if exports growth to the top eight Commonwealth countries over the past decade has been relatively subdued, at least overall trade has been in small surplus, whereas trade with the EU28 and China is heavily in deficit.
Chart 2b Trade (goods and services) balances, 2016 (£bn)

Source: ONS, UK Balance of Payments, the Pink Book, 2017 edition.
This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of LSE Brexit Ruth Lea CBE is Economic Adviser at the Arbuthnot Banking Group. References , nor of the London School of Economics.

In conclusion, Commonwealth countries seem to have a bright economic future and offer expanding domestic markets that could greatly benefit UK exporters. There is, therefore, considerable potential for them to be future growth markets for UK exports.

1. GDP (PPP) data allow for the relative prices of goods and services, particularly non-tradeables, within an economy. They are, therefore, a better overall measure of the comparative real value of output than data calculated using market exchange rates (MERs).

2. GDP data at market exchange rates (MERs) provide a better measure of a country's international purchasing power, so relevant for international trade. Exchange rates can fluctuate wildly and currencies can, for example, be "overvalued" or "undervalued" for considerable periods of time.

3. Sarianna Lundan and Geoffrey Jones, "The 'Commonwealth Effect' and the process of internationalisation", World Economy, January 2001.

4. EY, "Hitting the sweet spot: the growth of the middle class in emerging markets", 2013.

5. Exports to the top eight Commonwealth countries: Australia, Canada, India, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Singapore and South Africa.

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The Commonwealth advantage: trading with the bloc offers buoyant economic prospects

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One of Brexit's potential advantages is the UK's freedom to negotiate its own trade deals instead of being dependent on the EU. Of course, trade will continue with the EU after Brexit, probably little changed, and there is little doubt that the EU will continue to be a major trading partner after Brexit.

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Its critics have long predicted its demise, yet the Commonwealth remains as a network whereby small and large nations can come to the table as equals. In the latest edition of Ross Davies asks Professor Philip Murphy, director of the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London, what makes the organisation still tick amidst an age of geopolitical uncertainty.

Let's be frank for a moment. If you were to take a cross section of the general public, most would struggle to describe the role of the Commonwealth.

Such is the lack of public recognition around the organisation that when asked a couple of years ago to name its head as part of a survey, a quarter of Jamaican answered Barack Obama.

As readers of this publication, and members of the Royal Over-Seas League - itself affiliated to the Commonwealth - such unfamiliarity with the institution, particularly amongst the people of its member states, might come as a disappointment.

After all, we are not talking about a clandestine society club. Its 53 member countries cover around 27% of the globe, with a total landmass of 31 million square metres - roughly 21% of the world total. Commonwealth countries account for 2.2 billion people - 33% of the world population - and have a combined GDP of £10 trillion.

Those are impressive figures all right, so why is it that the layman knows so little about the Commonwealth, compared to, say, NATO or the UN?

The first distinction to be made is that the Commonwealth is not a formal group like NATO or UN; rather, it is a network of countries that are bound mainly through historical and cultural ties, not formal obligations.

Neither is there any formal trade agreement between Commonwealth member states. Instead, it serves as a conduit or platform through which ministers can meet informally and discuss trading potential.

But, in the past, the organisation has also not been afraid to flex its geopolitical muscle. The agreement of Commonwealth leaders on a programme of economic sanctions against the South African regime in 1986 is widely credited with contributing to the end of apartheid.

In 2007, members also moved to suspend Pakistan from the Commonwealth for a second time due to the imposition of emergency rule by then-President Pervez Musharraf - judged to be in direct contravention of democracy, rule and law, and "the Commonwealth's fundamental political values". Pakistan returned to the fold a year later upon the resignation of Musharraf.

According to Professor Philip Murphy, director of the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London, in recent years the Commonwealth has sought to increasingly position itself as an organisation built on goodwill and friendship.

"Since its great crusade against apartheid in South Africa, it has attempted to reinvent itself as a group promoting good governance, human rights and democracy," Murphy tells me when I visit him in his office, located a stone's throw away from Russell Square.

Murphy, who began his current role in 2009, is keen to talk about trade. While not strictly a trading bloc, research from 2015 by the Commonwealth Secretariat - its civil service - suggests member states are 20% more likely to trade with each other than outside nations. What's more, trading costs are said to be 20% less between Commonwealth countries.

So, is there such a thing as a Commonwealth advantage?

"For a while now, there has been this idea of a Commonwealth culture, which makes trading easier, because you have common legal systems, tradition and language," says Murphy.

"From a British standpoint, we saw it most notably with Tony Blair's Labour government, which looked at pushing a trade agenda through the Commonwealth. But I think it's very difficult to measure precisely trade between member states, as we don't have standards across the globe for the cost of trade."

Murphy doesn't outwardly dispute the figures from the Commonwealth Secretariat, but warns that they "are notional, and involve a lot of counterfactuals, such as proximity between nations".

If there's anything that's galvanised UK discussion over the Commonwealth in the last year or so, it has been Brexit. Some - especially those who voted in favour of leaving the European Union - believe it offers the UK an opportunity to establish new trading channels with old friends.

Writing in an editorial in The Telegraph days after the vote, Lord Howell - a former Minister of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office - argued that "whatever relationship the UK ends up agreeing with the EU Single Market, the time for a sharply increased focus on both Commonwealth and adjacent markets is now ripe, and crucial for the UK's continuing prosperity and, because of connectivity, for other European economies as well".

Howell went on to argue that Commonwealth nations such as India, Australia and New Zealand " had all expressed interest in trade talks" with the UK, while historic ties to Hong Kong might also serve as a springboard to create new roots in Asian markets.

Murphy, however, doesn't believe that the EU can simply be replaced by the Commonwealth, which accounts for around 10-12% of UK exports - compared to 44% on the continent.

"If there was even a 5% drop in trade with the EU as a result of Brexit, the UK would need at least a 25% increase in trade with Commonwealth by way of compensation," he says.

"So it's not necessarily the case that any new deal Britain strikes would be of greater advantage to it trading position - or to developing countries within the Commonwealth."

In other words, the UK would need to look at trade deals through the prism of all of its Commonwealth allies, and avoid anything resembling Anglo-centricity. Deals and investment relations should be akin to a partnership of equals.

In fact, this is something that even those ambivalent towards the Commonwealth admit is one its best characteristics - the provision of a platform on which smaller nations can speak to larger nations on an equal footing.

In recent years, the biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government meetings have been hosted in Malta, Uganda and Trinidad and Tobago. Last year's summit had been scheduled to take place in Vanuatu, until it was cancelled due to cyclone devastating the island nation's infrastructure in 2015.

"If you were the president of small state, you'd want to belong to the Commonwealth, because it has the hallmark of legitimacy and international respectability," says Murphy.

"That's a really useful thing to have. It allows smaller countries to interact in diplomatic fora with larger, more powerful states. So, if someone staged a coup against you, for instance, you could contact Marlborough House and raise international concerns that way."

Despite the brand of gentle goodwill projected by the Commonwealth, it's not all been plain sailing in the last few years. In 2013, the Gambia rescinded its membership with former President Yahya Jammeh labelling it a neo-colonial institution. In 2016, the Maldives also withdrew, accusing it of interfering in its domestic affairs.

Yet last year, after Jammeh went into exile after losing the Gambian elections, new President Adama Barrow pledged to return the country to the organisation. There is even a chance the institution may see its ranks swell in the near future. Sudan, South Sudan and Somaliland have all voiced their intent to join in recent years.

"Like I said earlier, it's not surprising these countries want to join the Commonwealth," says Murphy. "It boosts their diplomatic weight."

A while back, there was also talk of Palestine joining, although Murphy doubts this could ever happen while tensions in the Middle East remain so fraught. "It would be political dynamite".

As for its future, Murphy sees the Commonwealth as a going concern. Of its 53 members, 16 countries still have the Queen as their monarch, which won't change any time soon, "as it's too difficult for these states to make the transition to republics, even if they wanted to".

Commonwealth detractors - particularly those on the far left - view it as nothing more than a hangover of the British Empire.

As evidenced by the recent furore Christmas surrounding Oxford University professor Nigel Biggar - who launched a project balancing the rights and wrong of Britain's colonial legacy - the empire can be a polarising topic. Biggar stands accused by some 60 of his own colleagues at Oxford of "whitewashing" history.

But, the Maldives aside, there is little evidence that former colonies want to break ties with Commonwealth, says Murphy. Research conducted by his department reveals quite the contrary.

"Between 2013 and 2016, we interviewed over 70 leading Commonwealth figures - including secretaries and Prime Ministers - as part of a major project called the Commonwealth Oral History Project," he explains.

"I went over to Dehli to speak with three Indian foreign ministers, and I asked about a possible exit, and one of them turned to me and said, 'Well, if you are a member of a club, why would you leave it?' One of the Commonwealth's greatest achievements is that it still exists."
Read more features on the Commonwealth in the latest edition of Overseas.

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Its critics have long predicted its demise, yet the Commonwealth remains as a network whereby small and large nations can come to the table as equals. In the latest edition of Ross Davies asks Professor Philip Murphy, director of the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London, what makes the organisation still tick amidst an age of geopolitical uncertainty.

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Commonwealth countries are estimated to have lost up to US$345 billion worth of trade in 2020, including $60 billion in intra-Commonwealth trade, according to 2021 Commonwealth Trade Review on "Energising Commonwealth Trade in a Digital World: Paths to Recovery Post-COVID".

Released today, the Commonwealth Trade Review provides a timely and comprehensive analysis of the impact of the pandemic on the trade and investment flows of Commonwealth member countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a heavy toll globally, substantially impacting all Commonwealth members economies and leading to US$1.15 trillion in foregone gross domestic product (GDP) in just one year. Compared to pre-pandemic growth trends in 2020, Commonwealth economies contracted by approximately 10%.

Most Commonwealth countries also experienced a significant decline in overall Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in 2020, with a loss of US$153 billion to the Commonwealth.

Given the linkages between trade and investment and the role of FDI in supporting cross-border trade, these disruptions could limit trade prospects for Commonwealth countries.

Commonwealth advantage

Speaking ahead of the launch of the report, Rt Hon Patricia Scotland QC, Secretary-General of the Commonwealth said:

"Our Commonwealth members can harness the 'Commonwealth advantage' to provide a post-pandemic tailwind that supports recovery, especially in small states, who have been particularly hard-hit. We know that trade can offer positive solutions to manage the pandemic and it's an essential tool for building back better. Commonwealth members can draw on the mutual support and benefits offered through initiatives such as the Commonwealth's Connectivity Agenda, Blue Charter, Sustainable Energy Transition Agenda and our other work that helps boost trade recovery in a more inclusive, resilient and sustainable way."[GR1]

A reassuring finding from the Trade Review is that the Commonwealth trade advantage has remained strong and resilient, and is now estimated at 21 per cent, on average. On the investment side, this advantage has almost tripled since the 2015, to around 27 per cent.

Regional trends

The economic fallout from COVID-19 varied across Commonwealth regions. The drop is higher for developing Commonwealth countries, where exports have contracted by approximately 10.1%.

In absolute terms, Asian economies suffered the largest decline in exports (at US$146 billion), followed by African ($20 billion), Caribbean ($4.2 billion) and Pacific members (1.3 billion). However, relatively Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) underwent a greater slump. Their global exports shrank by almost 20 per cent. These SIDS largely rely on the exports of services, particularly travel and tourism, which were hit hard in this pandemic.

For FDI the drop affected all developed and developing countries but to a varying degree, with Australia and Rwanda notably experiencing a 50 per cent decline in inflows compared with the pre-pandemic (2017-2019) average.

Only eight Commonwealth developing countries recorded higher overall FDI inflows in 2020 compared with this previous average. They were The Gambia, Malawi and Sierra Leone in Africa, India in Asia, Belize, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago among Caribbean SIDS and Papua New Guinea in the Pacific.

Global Goals

The pandemic's disproportionate impact on already vulnerable economies, societies and healthcare systems exacerbates existing challenges to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Future prospects and leveraging technology to boost recovery

The changes brought about by the pandemic underline the centrality of technology to all aspects of our lives, from the rapid development of vaccines and 3D printing of medical equipment and devices to e-commerce and the online delivery of services.

Furthermore, the growth of investment in renewable energy is hugely encouraging as Commonwealth members aspire to greener, more regenerative development.

Looking forward, intra-Commonwealth exports are expected to rebound and surpass US$700 billion by 2022. However, FDI inflows to the Commonwealth are expected to decline by 18 per cent in 2021, and a further 7 per cent in 2022. As a result, the total value of FDI inflows to the Commonwealth is expected to decline to US$136 billion in 2022, or a loss of around $220 billion compared with 2019.

While there are still many challenges ahead, the 2021 Commonwealth Trade Review identifies possible pathways to help guide Commonwealth policymakers and businesses towards a more inclusive, sustainable and resilient recovery, especially through digital trade and technologies.

Explore the digital report at: trade-review.thecommonwealth.org

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US$345 billion loss in trade for Commonwealth countries due to pandemic

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Explore the digital report at: trade-review.thecommonwealth.org Commonwealth countries are estimated to have lost up to US$345 billion worth of trade in 2020, including $60 billion in intra-Commonwealth trade, according to 2021 Commonwealth Trade Review on "Energising Commonwealth Trade in a Digital World: Paths to Recovery Post-COVID".

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Trade officials and experts gathered at the Commonwealth's headquarters to debate the future of intra-Commonwealth trade in view of emerging trends such as increased digitalisation of services and regulatory barriers.

Reflecting on the findings of the Commonwealth Trade Review 2015 and 2018, participants focused on ways to strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system, deal with rising protectionism and overcome non-tariff barriers.

Delegates at the meeting, entitled Future Trends Influencing intra-Commonwealth Trade and Investment, discussed solutions for member countries to remain adaptive and resilient. They recommended improved connectivity, advanced broadband infrastructure and better market access for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to overcome such constraints.

Opening the meeting, Teddy Soobramanien, the Acting Head of International Trade Policy at the Commonwealth, said: "There is no doubt that modern technology, the internet of things and more broadly the digitalisation of the economy is shaping the way we trade, what we trade and with whom we trade." Improving broadband penetration, he said, could be a catalyst for e-commerce development, trade and income generation for many member countries.

Delegates said there was a communication gap between business and political leaders that hindered economic growth. The Commonwealth, they said, could play a critical role in bridging the divide. They encouraged governments to listen to the concerns of the business community, including SMEs, before making multilateral decisions in Geneva that directly impacted them.

Michelle Chivunga, from British Blockchain Association, said that innovations such as block chain technology could help SMEs to interact, grow and contribute more to GDP. "Marginalised groups, refugees and people that have lost identity are often segregated from society with lack of access to economic and financial systems," she said.

Blockchain technology, an incorruptible digital archive that can record virtually everything of economic value, has the potential to address some of these barriers. "It brings people back into the trading system so they can interact, boost financial and economic inclusion, participate effectively in trade and become empowered," said Ms Chivunga.

Addressing these issues, while leveraging the 'Commonwealth Advantage' will boost trade among member countries significantly. The unique attributes of the Commonwealth Advantage such as common laws, language, and regulatory systems, make trade costs among member countries 19 per cent cheaper, on average, according to Commonwealth research.

The conclusions of the meeting will inform the assessment study for the forthcoming Commonwealth Trade Review 2020.

Download the International Chamber of Commerce's (ICC) Digital Trade Roadmap which was used as a reference.

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Officials sketch the future of intra-Commonwealth trade

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Trade officials and experts gathered at the Commonwealth's headquarters to debate the future of intra-Commonwealth trade in view of emerging trends such as increased digitalisation of services and regulatory barriers. Reflecting on the findings of the Commonwealth Trade Review 2015 and 2018, participants focused on ways to strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system, deal with rising protectionism and overcome non-tariff barriers.

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The world is bracing for a massive hit to the global economy in the wake of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Experts have warned of a US$1-2 trillion shortfall in global income this year, while world trade could contract by between 13 and 32 per cent.

As countries take drastic measures to fight the spread of the disease, we are seeing borders and businesses closed, domestic and international travel scaled back, and a totally transformed way of life due to social distancing. Currently, 2.6 billion people across the world are affected by their workplace closing.

The result is a sweeping drop in economic activity, a much less active workforce, on top of growing global insecurity for the future. Without ample government bailouts, poor developing countries and small states remain the most vulnerable in the face of the pandemic.

However, history has shown that with the right policies and support measures in place, the Commonwealth as a whole will eventually be able to overcome the economic fallout - though extremely bleak times lie ahead.

In particular, gradually reviving trade flows amongst 54 member countries - worth more than an estimated US$700 billion in 2019 - can play a fundamental role in boosting economic recovery, while harnessing the benefits of Commonwealth ties.

Recovering from the crisis

Given the unprecedented nature of current pandemic, I am cautious in comparing economic-induced and biological-induced crises. However, the 2008-2009 global financial crisis can offer some insights about the Commonwealth's possible performance.

Over the years following the global financial crisis, the Commonwealth's overall exports of both goods and services grew at a faster rate than the world average.

From 2010 to 2018, the Commonwealth's exports in goods, which make up 70 per cent of its trade, grew by around 8 per cent, compared to only 5.5 per cent for the world.

In fact, during the global trade slowdown of 2012 to 2016, the Commonwealth's services exports were especially resilient, expanding by 7 per cent, on average - more than twice the growth rate for the rest of the world.

Rapid population and per capita income growth (especially in Asia) are part of the driving forces behind the Commonwealth's buoyancy. With 2.4 billion people, 60 per cent of whom are under the age of 30, these drivers are unlikely to slow anytime soon - with or without coronavirus.

Commonwealth Advantage

Moreover, Commonwealth countries share historical ties, familiar legal and administrative systems, a common language of operation (English) and large dynamic diasporas, which help make trade and investment more convenient and efficient.

While not a formal trading bloc, this 'Commonwealth Advantage' enables member states to trade up to 20 per cent more with each other than with non-members, at a 21 per cent lower cost, on average. Our research also shows that these countries invest up to 27 per cent more within the Commonwealth than outside of it - almost tripling investment levels five years ago, which stood at 10 per cent.

The potential benefits have not been lost on countries, even as we prepare to face a severe slowdown of the global economy brought on by COVID-19.

The slowing of the Chinese economy (a major trading partner), the decline in tourism and travel, as well as plunging oil prices will certainly cause economic strain to members. However, investment flows to sectors such as e-commerce, digital technologies, cybersecurity, healthcare and biotechnologies could shore up, as business migrates online, and countries race to find a vaccine and other medical treatments.

Strengthening the connectivity among our countries is therefore critical, so that trade flows remain resilient during times of crisis. Digital connectivity will be especially key, as the need to interact virtually now will transform the way people trade and do business. It is already a major area of focus for the Commonwealth, under its flagship Connectivity Agenda.

While being extremely watchful of the pandemic's economic impacts, I am cautiously hopeful about the potential for intra-Commonwealth trade to act as a lifeline during the darkest of times. By leveraging the Commonwealth Advantage and robust policy responses, countries can bolster vital trade and investment flows, to eventually emerge at the end of the tunnel.

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We must leverage the 'Commonwealth Advantage' to counter the economic fallout of COVID-19

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By Patricia Scotland, Commonwealth Secretary-General The world is bracing for a massive hit to the global economy in the wake of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Experts have warned of a US$1-2 trillion shortfall in global income this year, while world trade could contract by between 13 and 32 per cent.

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Foreword by the Secretary of State and Permanent Secretary

DCMS sectors are among the most dynamic and fast-growing in the UK. Supporting them through the pandemic has therefore not just been about protecting our nation's cultural and social fabric, but making an investment in the industries that will power our recovery.

Now, as we aim to build back better from the pandemic, DCMS will play a leading role in ensuring that we create a stronger and more united country, levelling up opportunities right across the United Kingdom. By taking an unashamedly pro-growth approach, we believe we can deliver both the UK's economic and cultural renewal.

In order to drive growth and create jobs, we have ambitious plans to invest in the digital infrastructure that makes us more productive and the cultural infrastructure that makes us proud of the places we live in. We are also taking forward reforms that will promote greater competition in the tech sector and unleash the power of data to help companies and public services innovate in new ways, whilst ensuring people are safe online.

As our cultural and creative industries recover from the pandemic and adapt to our departure from the EU, our investment will help them recover their audiences at home and attract new ones abroad. And as we look forward to a fantastic year of events in 2022, we will find new ways to inspire and unite the nation, whilst bringing in new visitors and reminding the world of the UK's unique strengths.

The role of the Outcome Delivery Plan is to help us deliver those objectives, and deliver tangible change. Of course, not all of the department's work is included in the plan. This plan does not encompass all of our COVID-19 recovery programmes, for example, despite the crucial role they have played in allowing our sectors to survive and thrive. But this plan is an illustration of our key areas of focus in the coming year and of our ambition to help the nation bounce back strongly.

Rt Hon. Oliver Dowden CBE MP
Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport

Sarah Healey
Principal Accounting Officer and Permanent Secretary

A. Executive summary

Vision and mission:

DCMS drives growth and enriches lives for people across the whole of the UK.

During the pandemic, the department has played a critical role in maintaining the cultural and social fabric of the country - particularly through interventions to protect our precious heritage and cultural institutions, safeguard and restart sport and physical activity and, support charities and volunteers on the front line. At the same time, we have helped industries such as news publishers and film and TV bounce back strongly, and our digital sector has kept the country connected through secure infrastructure.

As we emerge from COVID-19, DCMS will be at the forefront of efforts to build back better and level up economic opportunity across the UK. The high growth industries we represent will be key to generating the new jobs and that can help fuel the nation's recovery.

We have ambitious plans to invest in infrastructure and unleash innovation in the tech and digital sectors. By the end of 2021, gigabit connectivity will be available to 60% of premises and we will have published technical consultations on mobile planning reforms and gigabit connectivity in new builds. We will also set out new plans for how we can use data to drive growth and improve public services, including through disruptive digital technologies like artificial intelligence. We will publish a Digital Strategy that lays out the government's approach to the digital technology sector, underpinned by clear principles that promote competition and encourage innovation. In addition, we will also introduce legislation to establish a new online safety regulatory framework - balancing the safety of internet users, particularly children and the most vulnerable, with the need to protect freedom of expression; as well as legislation to improve the cyber security of consumer connected products.

As restrictions on social contact are lifted, DCMS will lead a programme to reopen live events across sports, the arts, creative industries and business. We will continue to deliver the Culture Recovery Fund, the biggest one off-investment in culture ever made and will build on this through the Cultural Investment Fund alongside Arts Council England and our other ALBs, which will drive regeneration and cultural renewal through culture, creativity and heritage. We will continue to deliver the £600m Sports Survival Package to protect the immediate futures of major spectator sports in England as we build towards the return of spectators.

We are working closely with the creative industries, from music to fashion, to support their recovery from the pandemic and help them adapt to our departure from the EU. In collaboration with UKRI, we are also supporting the best of British creativity and innovation across the nations and regions. The UK Global Screen Fund and the Film & TV Production Restart Scheme are enabling UK productions to compete on a level playing field and helping to project the UK's soft power with both current and future trading partners. The extension of the UK Games Fund will continue to support early stage businesses and talent in our trailblazing video games development sector. This year, the Secretary of State will be setting the level of the licence fee, to fund the BBC and S4C for at least 5 years from April 2022. The BBC is a world-class broadcaster, trusted and recognised across the globe, and it played a vital role in keeping the nation unified, entertained and informed throughout the pandemic. However, to ensure that it can deliver the best value for money for everyone across the UK and its long-term sustainability in a rapidly changing digital world it must also continue to reform.

DCMS creates the moments that inspire and unite every corner of the UK, and allows our world class cultural and sporting talent to shine. The department will play a leading role in delivering a brilliant programme of events in 2022: the Birmingham Commonwealth Games, the Platinum Jubilee and the Festival UK* 2022. This year we have published the Commonwealth Games Legacy Plan and will launch ticket sales, the Queen's Baton relay and the Business and Tourism Programme. We have also revealed 10 winning cutting-edge Festival UK* 2022 projects that will showcase our greatest institutions, world class talent across the STEAM sectors and emerging creatives throughout the year. Coventry UK City of Culture launched in May and will take us into 2022 with an exciting and innovative programme that celebrates the dynamism of the historic city. Together, these events represent a £1bn investment in major events and national moments that will bring people together, drive tourism, support jobs and businesses and provide a platform for recovery and the UK to shine on a global stage.

Charities, community groups and social enterprises have been instrumental in responding to the pandemic, clearly demonstrating their vital contribution to supporting people and communities in need, and building a strong social fabric. We will reshape our stewardship role to better support civil society in realising its potential. We will build a centre of expertise on the health and potential of civil society within DCMS and draw on this intelligence, as well as cross government networks, to inform policy that enables the sector to deliver efficiently and effectively. We will continue to maintain an effective regulatory framework for charities, and will aim to simplify charity law. We support social responsibility, helping people volunteer in their communities and increasing opportunities for young people to achieve. In 2021/22 we will invest £30m to create new and refurbished facilities for young people.

We are also in the process of modernising DCMS. Through investing in our people, improving their capabilities and becoming a more diverse and inclusive department, we will ensure we are truly reflective of the country we serve. Our modernisation also includes critical investment in our systems, ensuring they are fit for purpose and reduces the manual input required. As part of this we will improve our business data to enable effective decision making across the department. We will also formalise our processes and ways of working, ensuring rigour in our reporting; enhanced capabilities in managing risk; delivering our programmes; and professionalising the relationships with our public bodies.

DCMS works with 45 public bodies to deliver these goals and we aim to realise the cross-government ambition that by 2022, 50% of all public appointees are female and 14% of all public appointments made are from ethnic minorities.

Our priority outcomes

This delivery plan sets out in detail how we will deliver our priority outcomes, how we will measure our success, and how we will ensure we continuously improve.

Our priority outcomes are:

1. Increase economic growth and productivity through improved digital connectivity (Supporting departments: Department for Transport and Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government).

2. Grow and evolve our sectors domestically and globally, in particular those sectors most affected by COVID-19, including culture, sport, civil society, and the creative industries.

3. Increase growth through expanding the use of data and digital technology and increasing innovation, while minimising digital harms to the UK's economy, security and society.

4. Enhance the cohesiveness of our communities and nations including through major events and ceremonial occasions, and reduce inequalities of participation in society, particularly among young people.

The department is also supporting the delivery of the following Priority Outcomes led by other departments:

Provisional priority outcomes and associated metrics will be adjusted through the next Spending Review as necessary, including to deliver the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.

Strategic enablers

To deliver our priority outcomes - and reinforce the ambitions of the Declaration on Government Reform - we will focus on four key enablers:

B. Introduction

Context

DCMS operates in a unique environment, facing a number of internal and external threats and challenges. Key elements of our operating environment include:

The occasional need to react at short notice to implement new policies and programmes to support UK government commitments.

The visibility and prominence of our responsibilities, which expose the department to an extraordinary level of inherent reputational risk.

The reliance of many of our programmes on the co-operation and participation of external parties engaged under bespoke framework agreements.

Although we hold responsibility for the delivery of projects and programmes, we often have a limited level of direct control with which to influence arm's length bodies, local government and other stakeholders. This can present a challenge in gaining an adequate level of assurance.

Like many other departments, we and our sectors have been preparing and reacting to impacts caused by the UK leaving the European Union and COVID-19. We have developed and implemented our contingency plans, to respond to concurrent risks and issues.

Our remit has grown significantly in the past few years with significant new areas of policy ownership. To support delivery of our strategic vision, we are committed to developing a workforce strategy to articulate the future shape and size of DCMS and embed a culture of strategic workforce planning. The workforce strategy will enable us to deliver our ambition to have the right people, in the right roles at the right time, while continuing to maintain a flexible, diverse and resilient department.

Alongside our growth in remit, we have seen significant growth in budget in recent years. The shift from being a smaller policy department, to an economic department delivering multi-billion pound capital programmes has also required investment in our corporate centre in order to ensure we are fully resourced to deliver on these priorities.

2. Governance and delivery agencies

The Departmental Board is the most senior board in the department, providing advice and challenge on strategic issues. It is chaired by the Secretary of State. Membership includes Ministers, Non-Executives, the Permanent Secretary, Directors General and Finance Director.

The Audit and Risk Committee provides constructive challenge on the department's governance, risk management and financial controls. It also provides assurance of the financial report and accounts. It is chaired by Hemant Patel (Non-Executive Board Member). Membership comprises the Lead Non-Executive Board Member and two Independent members. It is also attended by the Permanent Secretary, Directors General, Finance Director, NAO and GIAA officials.

The Executive Board is the key operational board within DCMS, responsible for all operational policy, delivery areas and departmental budget. It is chaired by the Permanent Secretary. Membership includes the Directors General and Directors of Corporate Strategy, People and Workplace, and Finance and Commercial, and Legal.

The Executive Board is supported by a Shadow Board composed of staff from a range of grades. Shadow Board meetings mirror the agenda of the Executive Board to provide representative staff views on a range of issues including operational, policy and delivery areas, strategy, risk management and the overall departmental budget.

The Executive Board is also supported in its role by four committees:

The Finance Committee approves and monitors the department's major financial commitments as well as arm's length body projects of £15m and above. It is chaired by the Director for Finance and Commercial. Membership includes directors and deputy directors from all Director General areas.

The Major Programmes Committee provides strategic oversight and assurance on the department's portfolio of major programmes/projects, closely aligned to the Performance, Assurance and Risk Committee. It is chaired by the Director General for Culture, Sport and Civil Society. Membership comprises directors from all Director General areas and independent members, who provide external advice and challenge.

The Performance, Assurance and Risk Committee ensures DCMS has the right environment to effectively manage performance and risk, with its work complemented by the Major Programmes Committee. It is chaired by the Director General for Digital and Media Group. Membership includes directors from all Director General areas and an external member, who provides additional challenge.

The People and Operations Committee ensures effective and appropriate business and people procedures are in place and the right culture and values are in place across the department. It is chaired by the Director General for Strategy and Operations. Membership includes directors from across Director General areas and DCMS network representatives.

DCMS works with 45 public bodies to deliver our objectives. The Public Bodies Performance and Risk Board is a sub-committee of the Performance, Assurance and Risk Committee. It provides assurance to PARCo, and through them to the Executive Board and Accounting Officer, that risks and performance are being effectively and appropriately managed across the Department's public bodies. It is chaired by the Deputy Director for Public Bodies, Appointments, Honours and Awards. Membership comprises deputy directors from all Director General areas.
Find out more about DCMS on GOV.UK.
3. Overview of strategic risk

We monitor strategic risks to the Department through our executive risk register. This is owned and reviewed monthly by the Executive Board. The principal risks that have been identified are outlined below along with the department's ongoing mitigating actions:

Departmental Resourcing - ensuring we have sufficient agility, data and flexibility to respond both to short term demands (including COVID-19 response) as well as remaining on track to achieve our longer-term policy and delivery goals. We continue to prioritise and work flexibly to deliver this plan.

Cumulative impact of challenging delivery ambitions, the economic environment, COVID-19 and EU Exit have put pressure on staff and resources. Prioritisation and business planning have been undertaken to ensure this plan is deliverable.

Further economic shocks placing greater pressure on already distressed sectors as well as pressure on the department to change its operating model again, provide greater financial support packages, and re-prioritise work. This plan details how we continue to support our sectors.

Financial Fraud Risks - funding packages developed to support our sectors through the COVID-19 pandemic have increased the department's exposure to fraud risks due to the pace these have been developed and implemented. This higher level of risk is being mitigated through counter-fraud measures and the delivery of post event assurance plans.

Commercial Risks - The urgent COVID-19 projects coupled with the increasing portfolio of large and more complex digital and sports programmes give rise to complex and impactful Commercial and delivery risks. We continue to enhance the capabilities of key teams to ensure there is appropriate management and mitigation of these risks.

Diversity and Inclusion - meeting key targets including representation rates, inclusion gaps and pay gaps. Progress towards our ambition to be the most diverse and inclusive department by 2025 is closely monitored by the Executive Board and Talent Board, with a particular focus on LGBT inclusion, disability and ethnic minority representation, cultural change and staff training.

We are continuing to improve our approach to risk with a new risk management framework and risk appetite statement being rolled out across the department. This includes a more joined-up approach to our risk management engaging across the whole department, not just in the delivery and policy areas and the main governance boards and committees.

4. Our resources

a. Our finances:

i. Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL): £3.0 billion
ii. Resource DEL (including depreciation): £2.0 billion
iii. Capital DEL: £1.0 billion
iv. Annually Managed Expenditure (AME): £4.6 billion

Control totals included in this document are in line with those presented in the Main Supply Estimates 2021/22. Any changes arising from the Parliamentary approval process will be reflected in due course.

Source: Main Supply Estimates 2021/22

5. Our people:

As at 31 December 2020, DCMS had 1615.9 full-time equivalent employees.

Source: ONS public sector employment data / Release schedule: quarterly

Breakdown of resource by work

In this environment, the importance of our work has never been greater. We need to have the resources to do our work effectively and respond to new priorities as they arise. The table below shows how our resources are allocated across the department. Due to the cross-cutting nature of our outcomes, with directorates often contributing to multiple outcomes, it is not possible to allocate resources by outcome.

*Figures exclude temporary workers and contractors

C. Priority outcomes

Priority Outcome 1: Increase economic growth and productivity through improved digital connectivity

Lead minister Matt Warman, Minister for Digital Infrastructure
Outcome strategy:
We have an ambitious digital infrastructure agenda, including objectives to improve 4G mobile coverage, be world leaders in the development and deployment of 5G, and to build nationwide gigabit-capable broadband as soon as possible.

Digital infrastructure also plays a vital role in the UK economy by increasing productivity, creating new business and reducing unemployment. In addition, there has been an increase in the dependence on digital infrastructure since March 2020 due to COVID-19 and the increase in working and socialising from home.

DCMS' Barrier Busting and teams in other government departments are pursuing a number of cross-government measures to make it easier and cheaper to deploy digital infrastructure, supported by other departments as below:

Department for Transport (DfT): We are working with the DfT on reforming current street work regulations to create a more permissive approach in England (as street works is a devolved issue) to aid the deployment of new networks. We are also working with DfT stakeholders (including Network Rail) on the wider strategic fibre/gigabit rollout.

Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government (MHCLG): We are working with MHCLG on two barrier-busting measures. The first aims to simplify planning rules to support 5G rollout and extend mobile coverage, particularly in rural areas. The second aims to ensure gigabit-capable broadband in new homes. We are also advising on digital infrastructure grant requests in the shared MHCLG/BEIS Town Fund.
Departments supporting the outcome delivery:

Department for Transport

Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government

Our performance metrics

Percentage of premises passed with gigabit-capable broadband (including premises with access to FTTP and/or DOCSIS3.1)

Percentage of UK and nation/region geography with 4G coverage provided by at least one mobile network operator

Percentage of premises passed with gigabit-capable broadband by nation

Source: ThinkBroadband (Further historical data is available)

Release schedule: Monthly

Geographic area covered by at least one mobile network operator (4G coverage, outdoor)

Coverage figures are rounded to the nearest 1%.

Source: Ofcom Connected Nations reports (further historical data is available)

It is possible that small changes in the data from one year to the next may be due to continual improvements to the modelling methodology used and therefore should be treated with caution.

Release schedule: annually (main report, with interim updates twice a year)

How our work contributes to the delivery of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG):

Priority Outcome 1

SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth (Target 8.2)

SDG 9 - Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure (Target 9.1, 9.C)

Projects and programmes

UK Gigabit Programme: Deliver gigabit-capable broadband for the hardest to reach parts of the UK through a combination of supply side and demand side products. (Contributes to SDG 8, targets 8.2, 8.3 and SDG 9, targets 9.1, 9.b, 9.c)

Barrier-busting: Package of measures including legislative change aimed to make the deployment of telecoms infrastructure quicker and easier. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2 and SDG 9, target 9.1, 9.c)

Local Full Fibre Network (LFFN): To complete delivery of gigabit hubs and vouchers under the LFFN scheme. (Contributes to SDG 9, target 9.1, 9.c)

Superfast: Extending existing Superfast contracts to deliver gigabit-capable broadband to premises without 30Mbps speeds between 2022-26. (Contributes to SDG 8, targets 8.2, 8.3 and SDG 9, targets 9.1, 9.b)

Telecoms Diversification delivery: Building a resilient, diverse, and open telecoms supply chain, establishing UK telecoms capability as we deliver the diversification strategy. (Contributes to SDG 8, targets 8.2, 8.3 and SDG 9, targets 9.1, 9.b)

5G Testbeds and Trials Programme: Programme to accelerate the deployment of 5G networks and ensure the UK can take early advantage of the applications those networks can enable. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2 and SDG 9, target 9.1)

Shared Rural Network : Funding the deployment and upgrade of 4G mobile infrastructure in the most remote geographies to 2024/25. (Contributes to SDG 9, target 9.1, 9.c)

700MHz: Infrastructure work to free up 700MHz - completed. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2 and SDG 9, target 9.1)

Outcome evaluation plan

We are assessing the additionality of coverage and take-up of services alongside a common Building Digital UK benefits framework to evaluate the impact of increased connectivity. We will be focusing on the following areas: economic, environmental, public sector, market, subjective and societal wellbeing, reduced digital divide.

UK Gigabit Programme

Evaluations of interventions as part of the UK Gigabit Programme are currently in the planning stage. These follow the BDUK benefits framework and are in line with the Magenta Book. We will align data requirements against evaluation questions to ensure we establish a robust baseline to assess impact and additionality credibly.

Local Full Fibre Network (LFFN):

The LFFN has three research strands covering learning from early deliverables, local level evaluations, and full programme evaluation. They will provide evidence on the efficacy of hub, anchor tenancy and public asset reuse products that aggregate demand, reduce cost and whether they consequently stimulate the market to build more fibre connectivity. We are also exploring qualitative emergent benefit evidence from public sector connectivity to inform future evaluations and benefit realisation improvements for BDUK delivery.

Superfast Broadband:

The final round of assessment will capture the programme's impact beyond 2020, including the effect of COVID-19. We are focussing our next evaluation activity, starting this year, on wellbeing benefits.

Other evaluations are planned for:

1. BDUK Voucher Schemes, including National Gigabit Voucher Scheme (now closed), Rural Gigabit Voucher Scheme (now closed), Gigabit Broadband Voucher Scheme and Voucher Scheme Top Ups provided at local authority level.

2. Place Based Demand Aggregation Approach: Evaluating BDUK's Hub delivery to date mainly through Rural Gigabit Communities (RGC), but also LFFN Hubs, and setting up counterfactual based impact evaluation approaches for UK Gigabit Programme (demand aggregating products).

3. UK Gigabit Programme (Outside In product of new procurements) evaluation: plan for the programme impacts of expanding gigabit coverage to the 20%. It will follow a quasi-experimental approach.

4. Shared Rural Network: plan for a baseline study in late 2021.

Priority Outcome 2: Grow and evolve our sectors domestically and globally, in particular those sectors most affected by COVID-19, including culture, sport, civil society, and the creative industries
Outcome strategy:
DCMS sectors have been disproportionately affected by government-imposed restrictions and behavioural change due to COVID-19. For example, businesses in DCMS sectors have made far greater use of the furlough scheme, reported a higher risk of insolvency, and that their cash reserves will run out sooner than other businesses across the economy. EU Exit will introduce further changes to the business environment.

We are committed to supporting our sectors to adapt and recover and to creating the conditions for our most innovative sectors to grow, attract inward investment, and take advantage of international opportunities. For example, we are working with other departments to develop an ambitious roadmap for tourism recovery to support jobs and the sector, and to negotiate pioneering trade deals with international partners.

We are also investing to maximise opportunities created by major events in 2022, for example through the Commonwealth Games Business and Tourism Programme with the Department for International Trade, and we continue to drive growth and the UK economy by investing in creative, culture and sports sectors. We are also driving local, economic, social and cultural regeneration and the levelling-up agenda by supporting a number of high profile, large scale policies referenced below.

Our performance metrics

Gross Value Added of DCMS sectors, excluding Digital (£)

GVA of Creative Industries, Cultural Sector, Gambling, Sport and Tourism (adjusted for inflation) in £ bn, 2017 to 2019 (£)

p = provisional r = revised. These are planned revisions and part of the annual adjustment and balancing process of national accounts.

Source: DCMS Economic Estimates 2019: Gross Value Added (further historical data is available)

Notes:

With reference to the GVA of the Gambling sector the government has been clear that it recognises the value of a responsible industry which protects players, provides jobs and pays taxes. The Department's interest is in ensuring we have the right regulatory framework which balances this with the need to protect children, vulnerable people and wider communities from harm.

As the Telecommunications sector sits wholly within the Digital Sector, it is reported under Priority Outcome 3.

These GVA figures are in chained volume measures (i.e. are adjusted for inflation). We also publish GVA estimates in current prices (not adjusted for inflation).

These figures will be revised on an annual basis, due to planned revisions to the national accounts and updating of the base year used to produce chained volume measure estimates.

GVA figures for the latest year (currently 2019) are provisional and will be revised in the next release of DCMS Economic Estimates: Gross Value Added.

Chained volume measures data are not available for Civil Society at present (please see metric for Civil Society in the table below).

Due to overlap between sectors, GVA cannot be summed together for individual sectors as this will result in double counting.

Due to substantial revisions to the base data and methodology used to construct the tourism satellite account, estimates for the tourism sector are only available for 2016 to 2019.

Release schedule: annually

GVA for Civil Society as a proportion of the UK economy (in current prices), 2017 to 2019

p = provisional r = revised. These are planned revisions and part of the annual adjustment and balancing process of national accounts.

Source: DCMS Economic Estimates 2019: Gross Value Added (further historical data is available)

Notes:

These figures will be revised on an annual basis, due to planned revisions to the national accounts and updating of the base year used to produce chained volume measure estimates.

GVA figures for the latest year (currently 2019) are provisional and will be revised in the next release of DCMS Economic Estimates: Gross Value Added.

An estimate for the Civil Society sector expressed in chained volume measures is not currently available.

Civil Society in this table represents non-market charities sitting in the Non-profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) sector. This is an underestimate for the sector and does not include market provider charities who have passed the market test and therefore sit in the corporate sector, social enterprises and mutuals.

Release schedule: annually

Regional GVA for DCMS sectors excluding Civil Society and Tourism (adjusted for inflation) in £ m,

Regional GVA estimates are also published for DCMS sectors (excluding Civil Society and Tourism).

Source: DCMS Economic Estimates: Regional GVA sectors Tables - Chained Volume Measures.

Notes:

These GVA figures are in chained volume measures (i.e. are adjusted for inflation). We also publish GVA estimates in current prices (not adjusted for inflation).

These figures will be revised on an annual basis, due to planned revisions to the national accounts and updating of the base year used to produce chained volume measure estimates.

Due to overlap between sectors, GVA cannot be summed together for individual sectors as this will result in double counting.

Release schedule: annually

Domestic tourism visitor numbers
Domestic overnight tourism (England): Domestic day tourism (England):
How our work contributes to the delivery of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG):

Projects and programmes

Culture Recovery Fund : Through grants and repayable finance, the £1.87bn allocated to the Culture Recovery Fund (CRF) for 2020-21 and 2021-22 ensures that the culture sector can survive the impact of COVID-19. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3 11.4)

Cultural Investment Fund: Includes three competitive funds to bolster regional cultural investment: Museum Estates and Development Fund (MEND), Libraries Improvement Fund (LIF), and the next round of the Cultural Development fund (CDF2), which uses investment in heritage, culture and creativity to drive regeneration and growth, (through quality infrastructure and protecting assets) (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 11.4)

British Library Business and IP Centres: Expansion of the BIPC network to 21 regional and 90 local centres through the public library network across England, providing entrepreneurs with business support, free access to market intelligence, IP workshops and one-to-one coaching. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.3)

High-Streets Heritage Action Zones : This scheme will help to support the regeneration of our towns and cities, helping to transform disused historic buildings into shops, houses and community centres through redeveloping infrastructure and protecting assets.(Contributes to SDG targets 8.9, 11.4, 11.7)

Tourism Recovery Plan : The Tourism Recovery Plan, published in June, will support with the industry's recovery and growth in the short, medium and long term. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.9)

Commonwealth Games (incl. Business and Tourism Programme): The Commonwealth Games Business and Tourism Programme will invest to take full advantage of the economic legacy for the West Midlands and the whole UK from this exciting sporting event. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.9,11.3)

Sport Recovery Package: A £600m survival scheme (funding allocated for 2020-21 and 2021-22) to provide targeted support to major spectator sports that the COVID-19 restrictions have most severely impacted. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3)

Grassroots football investment and major tournaments: Wembley is hosting both the semi-finals and the final of UEFA Euro 2020 and England is hosting the 2021 Rugby League World Cup and UEFA Women's Euro 2022. These events should help meet a range of DCMS and wider government policy and strategic objectives, given major events' soft power, trade and international relation benefits. These also represent excellent opportunities to drive the equality agenda through our focus on women's sport. The 2021 Budget builds on this, with £2.8m committed to support a UK & Ireland bid for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, as well as an investment of £25m in UK grassroots community sports facilities, supporting the future of grassroots football. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.9, 10.2)

Contestable Fund : A 3-year pilot contestable fund for content creators which addresses market failures by directly targeting the declining investment in the UK originated children's television and the limited range and provision of commercial public service radio content. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 11.4)

UK Global Screen Fund: A new £7m pilot fund to develop, distribute and promote British screen content in international markets, in particular independent film. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 11.4)

British Film Commission - Stage Spaces: British Film Commission to expand its work promoting the UK as a destination of choice for stage space investment. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3)

Film & TV Production Restart Scheme: A £500m scheme to support film & TV productions in the UK to restart filming and to mitigate barriers from lack of available insurance for COVID-19-related losses. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3)

Charities Package: An unprecedented £750m package of support, specifically for charities, social enterprises and the voluntary sector. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 8.2, 8.3)

Arm's-Length Bodies activities: Providing broad-based sectoral support and improving delivery through building on its management and governance of its ALBs through funding for output. (Contributes to SDG targets 8.1, 11.4)

Outcome evaluation plan

A number of the evaluations planned are high-profile, including the Business and Tourism programme as part of the Commonwealth Games and the Cultural Investment Fund/Culture Recovery Fund.

1. Commonwealth Games Business and Tourism Programme: The evaluation, will seek to measure impacts on tourism, trade and investment in the run-up to, during, and after the Games to assess legacy and sustainability of impact. The Commonwealth Games Business and Tourism Programme, which is being delivered by the West Midlands Combined Authority, will support the levelling up agenda. The programme evaluation could provide useful insights into how levelling up can contribute to wider economic growth in the UK.

2. Cultural Investment Fund: The evaluation framework has multiple strands; we intend to work collaboratively with our Arm's Length Bodies to develop robust methodologies to evaluate impact. We expect to develop detailed evaluation plans throughout 21/22. Included are:

* The Cultural Development Fund 1 (CDF1) evaluation seeks to establish a causal link between culture and growth. It is due to report in 2023, with interim progress reports and findings produced sooner to inform future policy development.

* The Culture Recovery Fund evaluation is underway and expected to complete by March 2022. The evaluation, which will cover rounds 1 and 2 of CRF, will include rigorous theory-based case studies, process evaluation, and an assessment of value for money. We are in very early stages of thinking about evaluation of round 3.

Other evaluations are planned in relation to the Contestable Fund, British Libraries Business and Intellectual Property Centres, the Tourism Recovery Plan, High Street Heritage Action Zones, and the Global Screen Fund pilot.

Priority Outcome 3: Increase growth through expanding the use of data and digital technology and increasing innovation, while minimising digital harms to the UK's economy, security and society
Outcome strategy:
The UK is one of the most technologically and digitally advanced nations in the world, globally respected for its thriving technology sector and service-based economy. Since 2010, the UK's digital sector has experienced growth at twice the rate of the national economy, creating jobs and economic activity at a time of relative economic stagnation. By 2019, the importance and value of data and technological innovation was emerging, accounting for 7.6% of UK GVA. More recently, COVID-19 has highlighted the critical importance of digital technology and data to national recovery, enabling businesses to work remotely and people to adapt to sudden and significant changes to daily life patterns.

DCMS's Ten Tech Priorities showcase how we intend to deploy digital tech to build back better, safer and stronger from COVID, and shape a new golden age for tech in the UK. The forthcoming Digital Strategy will provide the strategic framework for acting on this, emphasising how with responsible data and technology use, we can inspire growth and improve life for people across the UK. This will build on the National Data Strategy (published September 2020), which acknowledged data as the driving force of modern economies and set out the UK's ambition to become the world's number one data destination: an open, welcoming and secure environment where companies from all over the world can innovate and grow, and where data improves life for people across the UK.

The creation of a new, pro-competition regime for digital markets will drive innovation and growth across the digital economy and a regulatory environment in which the UK digital and technology sector will continue to thrive and maintain its dynamism. The new regime will include a mandatory code of conduct to govern the relationships between dominant firms and different groups of users which rely on their services. It will allow for more proactive oversight and swift action on competition concerns in fast-moving digital markets.

Rapid technological change and our increasing dependence on digital services has also created new security risks that must be actively managed at home and through international systems. Government must be capable of assessing this changing risk environment and ensure it has the tools needed to respond to unacceptable levels of economic and national security risk at all stages within the supply chain. As organisations become more dependent on digital technologies, they must become more resilient to cyber-attacks. Government must ensure that businesses are incentivised to manage the cyber security risks of organisations to protect economic activity and consumers.

Our performance metrics

GVA of the Digital sector in the UK (adjusted for inflation) in £ bn, 2017 to 2019

p = provisional r = revised. These are planned revisions and part of the annual adjustment and balancing process of national accounts.

Source: DCMS Economic Estimates 2019: Gross Value Added (further historical data is available)

Notes:

These GVA figures are in chained volume measures (i.e. are adjusted for inflation). We also publish GVA in current prices (not adjusted for inflation).

These figures will be revised on an annual basis, due to planned revisions to the national accounts and updating of the base year used to produce chained volume measure estimates.

Telecoms is a subsector of the Digital Sector and as such its GVA falls wholly within the Digital Sector GVA.

Due to overlap between sectors, Digital Sector GVA cannot be summed with those of other DCMS Sectors as this will result in double counting

GVA figures for the latest year (currently 2019) are provisional and will be revised in the next release of DCMS Economic Estimates: Gross Value Added.

Release schedule: annually

Regional GVA for Digital sector in the UK (adjusted for inflation) in £ m, 2010 to 2018

Source: DCMS Economic Estimates: Regional GVA sectors Tables - Chained Volume Measures.

Notes:

These GVA figures are in chained volume measures (i.e. are adjusted for inflation). We also publish GVA estimates in current prices (not adjusted for inflation).

These figures will be revised on an annual basis, due to planned revisions to the national accounts and updating of the base year used to produce chained volume measure estimates.

Due to overlap between sectors, GVA cannot be summed together for individual sectors as this will result in double counting.

Release schedule: annually

Percentage of UK firms and charities that have undertaken action on five or more of the ten steps outlined in the government's 10 steps to Cyber Security guidance

Source: Cyber Security Breaches Survey/CSBS is an official statistic which is based on a survey of UK businesses and charities as part of the national cyber security strategy. (Further historical data is available)

The 10 steps refers to the government's 10 Steps to Cyber Security guidance. These 10 steps break down what is considered good organisational cyber security into ten component parts.

Release schedule: annually

How our work contributes to the delivery of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG):

Priority Outcome 3

SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth (Target 8.3)

SDG 9 - Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure (Target 9.5)

Projects and programmes

Online Safety Bill: We are delivering legislation that establishes a new online safety regulatory framework, which will be overseen and enforced by Ofcom. This will place a duty of care on online platforms to increase the safety of internet users, particularly children and the most vulnerable. (Contributes to SDG 9, target 9.1)

Countering Disinformation : DCMS will lead the cross-Whitehall Counter Disinformation Unit, bringing together monitoring and analysis capabilities (teams in Home Office, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Cabinet Office and the intelligence agencies) to provide a comprehensive picture of the extent, scope and the reach of disinformation and misinformation, and working with external partners to remove this content from social media platforms. (Contributes to SDG 9, target 9.1)

AI Strategy: The National AI Strategy, informed by the ecosystem to put AI at the centre of driving economic growth, contributing to the wider objective to position the UK as a global science superpower. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2 and SDG 9, target 9.1)

Shaping global tech standards: The DCMS Digital Standards Team aim to ensure that UK citizens and businesses benefit from the application of global digital standards that drive innovation and economic growth, protect UK values and norms, and foster safety and security. Our approach to global digital technical standards will continue to uphold an industry-led, multi-stakeholder model to standards development that boosts our businesses' competitiveness in the global technologies market. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2, 8.3 and SDG 9, target 9.1)

Tech Nation: Funding agreed to support new tech businesses to reach their potential by enhancing Tech Nation's role and its growth programmes focused on scale-ups. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2)

Digital Strategy and the Ten Tech Priorities: The Digital Strategy will set out the government's approach to supporting digitally-enabled growth, a world-class digital technology sector, and the adoption of technologies across the economy to drive productivity and growth. Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2, 8.3 and SDG 9, target 9.1, 9.3, 9.b. 9.c)

Cyber Security - Resilience, Secure Tech, Skills and Sector : Cyber Security policy initiatives are focused on securing businesses, citizens and products and building the UK's resilience across the economy and wider society. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2 and SDG 9, target 9.1, 9.b)

Digital Identity : Digital Identity policies seek to drive growth across the economy by providing an enabling framework for widespread digital identity usage. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2)

Pro-competition digital markets regime : The creation of a new, pro-competition regime for digital markets will drive innovation and growth across the digital economy and a regulatory environment in which the UK digital and technology sector will continue to thrive and maintain its dynamism. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2 and SDG 9, target 9.1)

National Data Strategy (NDS) Implementation: Delivery of DCMS data policy outcomes through continued implementation of the NDS, published for consultation in September 2020. (Contributes to SDG 8, target 8.2 and SDG 9, target 9.1)

Outcome evaluation plan

In many cases, the projects and programmes we are delivering to achieve this outcome are novel. The evaluations planned are an essential part of addressing gaps in the existing evidence base.

1. For the Online Safety regulations, we are developing a robust monitoring and evaluation framework which will evaluate the whole policy, including developing process and impact evaluations for the specific business and user support measures - a set of measures to help businesses prepare for the legislative requirements. The evaluation will be overseen by a cross-Whitehall steering group, with additional expert involvement where necessary. The findings will help address key evidence gaps and ensure the regulations are effective and proportionate.

2. For the National Data Strategy , we will monitor progress on the implementation of the vital individual actions and broader prioritised areas of activity, or 'missions' and develop an evaluation plan through 21/22.

3. For the Digital Strategy , we will monitor the Digital Strategy against our objectives and expected outcomes and further develop our evaluation plans - including identifying suitable KPIs - through 21/22.

4. We expect to evaluate the Digital Markets Unit (DMU) impact on digital market competition and consumer outcomes. We will be developing an evaluation plan through 21/22, in line with the broader development of the DMU.

5. For Cyber Security we will evaluate the programmes alongside established surveys such as the Cyber Security Breaches Survey 2022 and the Cyber Security Labour Market Research 2022.

Other evaluations planned include AI skills and Tech Nation.

Priority Outcome 4: Enhance the cohesiveness of our communities and nations including through major events and ceremonial occasions, and reduce inequalities of participation in society, particularly among young people
Outcome strategy:
DCMS is uniquely placed to contribute to this outcome as the lead department for the cultural, sports, and civil society sectors. At the heart of DCMS is our commitment to; support people across the country to lead healthier and active lives, support young people outside of the school setting, help strengthen communities and level-up access to opportunity. In addition to our work to support our sectors and people across the UK disproportionately impacted by COVID-19, we will deliver these outcomes through targeted place-based investments and our ongoing work with our ALBs. For example, over 50% of the Arts Council's National Portfolio funding goes to organisations outside London and the South East.

Our grant-giving ALBs directly address inequalities of participation as a key objective through programmes such as Sport England's Local Delivery Pilots and investments in Coventry UK City of Culture. As a department, we continue to strive for a thorough and evidence-based understanding of local and regional challenges and opportunities, enabling us to more effectively deploy the potential of all our sectors in supporting left-behind areas of the UK to level-up. We are also already contributing significantly to the lives and cohesiveness of communities and young people through programmes such as the renewed focus on stewardship and work to build a volunteering pipeline of young people to create a lifelong habit of volunteering.

DCMS is also responsible for many of the policy areas at the heart of major events and will be delivering a future pipeline of major and mega events in 2021 and 2022 (see below). We have proposed to take a leading role across government as a deliverer of events and centre of expertise to develop and maintain a continuity of project delivery expertise and strategic leadership and contribute to strategic objectives such as levelling-up and strengthening our union.

Our performance metrics

Percentage of adults (16+) in England who have engaged in civic participation in the last 12 months

Source: Community Life Survey (Adults 16+ in England) (Further historical data is available)

Release schedule: Yearly

Percentage of adults (16+) who are active or fairly active in England

Source: Active Lives Survey (by region), Active Lives Survey (England), Sport England

Active: At least 150 minutes of moderate physical activity each week

Fairly active: Between 30-149 minutes of moderate activity each week

Updated every 6 months

UK Sport major events programme attendance, by event

UK sport publish attendance data for major events.

How our work contributes to the delivery of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG):

Projects and programmes

Commonwealth Games: Backed by £778m of public funding, the Games will be at the heart of Birmingham and the West Midlands' economic recovery and deliver significant benefits for the region and UK. (Contributes towards SDG 10, Target 10.2 and SDG 11, target 11.2, 11.3)

Platinum Jubilee: DCMS is the lead department coordinating activity on behalf of HMG and supporting the Palace with planning and delivering a diverse programme of national and Commonwealth events and projects, culminating in national celebratory events across the extended Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend of 2nd - 5th June 2022. (Contributes towards SDG 10, Target 10.2)

Festival UK* 2022: The Festival UK is a celebration of creativity and innovation across the UK. Its key objectives are to: inspire and bring people and communities together and celebrate our strengths to the world. (Contributes towards SDG 10, target 10.2)

UK City of Culture: The UK City of Culture competition is a flagship DCMS programme and a proven model for using culture and creativity to regenerate and transform places. We want to continue to harness this power, especially as places across the UK plan for their recovery from COVID-19. (Contributes towards SDG 10, target 10.2 and SDG 11, targets 11.2, 11.3,11.4,11.7,11.a,11.b)

High Street Heritage Action Zones: The High Street Heritage Action Zones scheme will help to support the regeneration of our towns and cities. This programme will help transform disused historic buildings into shops, houses and community centres through redeveloping infrastructure and protecting assets. (Contributes towards SDG 11, targets 11.3, 11.4)

Civil Society and Youth core work including volunteering, loneliness, and the Life Chances Fund: Our work will maximise the value of volunteers and help address geographical, socio-economic and organisational barriers, including via the Voluntary and Communities Sector Emergencies Partnership. (Contributes towards SDG 4, target 4.5, 4.7; SDG 10, target 10.2, 10.3; SDG 11, target 11.5)

Youth, including Youth Investment Fund (Capital), National Citizen Service, Youth Review and Youth Volunteering: The £30m of the Youth Investment Fund committed as capital investment for 2021-22 will create new and refurbished safe spaces for young people. Delivery of the NCS Programme 2021, through the NCS Trust (via grant-in-aid funding), is also ongoing, and the trust is working with the Department of Work and Pensions as an approved Kickstart Gateway Provider. DCMS is currently leading a review of its programmes to support youth services. (Contributes towards SDG 4, target 4.5, 4.7; SDG 10, target 10.2, 10.3; SDG 11, target 11.5)

Existing ALB grant-in-aid funding : Our ALBs already contribute significantly to the lives and cohesiveness of communities and to young people. While well-managed core funding for a portfolio of organisations is at the heart of our investment approach in culture and creativity in communities, we are now supplementing this with targeted place-based funding streams. (SDG 10, target 10.2, 10.3 and SDG, target 11.4)

Elite sporting events: Hosting events like UEFA Euro 2020, the UEFA Women's Euro 2022, the 2021 Rugby League World Cup and the potential joint UK & Ireland FIFA World Cup in 2030 can increase engagement in sport and help meet many wider objectives such as greater participation for all groups across the country to be physically active, volunteering, mental wellbeing, individual development and social and community development. (SDG 10, target 10.2)

Outcome evaluation plan

We will establish the impact of our activities on community cohesion at the local, regional and national level and assess the difference in participation levels across different groups in society. We will focus specifically on volunteering, physical activity, and participation at national events, including ceremonials.

Evaluations for Heritage Action Zones, the Commonwealth Games, Festival UK* 2022 and the Youth COVID-19 Support Fund all seek to understand if the programmes achieved their intended objectives and outcomes.

Commonwealth Games: The Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games evaluation will capture the impact and legacy of hosting the Commonwealth Games and the social and economic benefits it will deliver. A supplier has been appointed to deliver the evaluation and the first report which will capture a refreshed evaluation framework and evaluation methodology is due to be published later in the year (2021). A second report in 2022 will capture the immediate legacy impacts of the Games and the early economic Impact Assessment. The final report in 2023, one-year post Games, will capture the short-term legacy impacts and will include the interim economic Impact Assessment.

UK City of Culture 2025 programme The UK City of Culture 2025 title winner will be required to build robust evaluation into their plans. There is no guaranteed funding committed to the winning place. We will oversee the evaluation's quality and ensure it adheres to Magenta Book and Green Book guidance.

Festival UK* 2022: The evaluation will be procured and managed by the Festival Company Ltd 2022 with DCMS support, with a supplier due to start in July/August 2021. The evaluation will measure the impact, process and value for money of the Festival. It is anticipated the suppliers will deliver a monitoring and data evaluation plan, baseline report, an interim report shortly following the Festival in March 2023 and a final impact cost-benefit analysis report in the summer of 2024 (subject to funding).

High Street Heritage Action Zones: Monitoring and evaluation will be centrally managed by Historic England's experienced Evaluation and Analytics team.

Youth COVID-19 Support Fund, from the Charities Package: An independent evaluator will take a mixed-method design to provide independent monitoring and evaluation.

Platinum Jubilee: DCMS is working with the Royal Household to plan the scope of the Platinum Jubilee evaluation to build a strong evidence base for the impact of the nation-wide Jubilee programme.

The Youth Investment Fund is still at the planning stage and evaluations will be developed in due course.

D. Strategic enablers

We are transforming DCMS to meet the demands of an agile, delivery-focused department leading on some of the highest priority work for the government's agenda to drive growth, enrich lives and level-up society. We will continue to invest in our people, ensuring we are creating a skilled, diverse workforce; drawing on talent from all over the country and enabling them to work together productively, wherever they are located.

We will continue to innovate to ensure our department is fit for working in the future. We will use new systems and use data and analysis to provide evidence to make the best decisions and achieve better outcomes for our sectors and the public we serve. This will include transforming our corporate services and providing a great experience for our staff.

Through a combination of rigorous governance, strong accountability, a proactive approach to risk management and excellence in policy, project and programme delivery we will ensure our department and our public bodies are driving forward the government's priorities.

Workforce, skills and location:

Our Department is developing the skills and capabilities of our workforce, ensuring we can achieve outcomes in this plan for citizens throughout the UK. We will further professionalise our workforce. We will introduce a centre of service delivery for the organisation. From HR to finance, analysis to comms, developing our partnership approach, we will provide quality professional services and improved systems and processes that give all our employees a positive experience of working at DCMS and provide accurate management information and insights to inform our decision-making.
In order to achieve our goals, we will:

deliver a new performance management process that will cultivate monthly development conversations and a coaching management style to ensure employees receive regular feedback, stretch, and support

develop our leaders so they have the skills and confidence to deliver our departmental agenda

ensure we are managing our talent to meet departmental need, and reward excellent performance fairly

ensure our organisation reflects the country we serve by relocating staff and roles, including senior civil servants, from London

continue to remove barriers to recruitment, development and promotion of a diverse, talented workforce

increase ethnicity, disability and sex representation and improve our ranking on social mobility in comparison to other government departments to better represent the public we serve, focusing on closing the 'inclusion gap'

People survey engagement score
Source: Civil Service People Survey / Release schedule: annually
Representation of female staff, ethnic minority staff and disabled staff
Source: Civil Service Diversity and Inclusion Dashboard / Release schedule: quarterly

Innovation, technology and data:

We are modernising and improving our systems so that we have the best data and management information to deliver our priorities. This work will create the conditions for greater collaboration, automation and the removal of inefficient, manual processes - opening up new avenues and approaches to our work, from the deployment of data to how we coordinate the assurance of our public bodies.
In order to achieve our goals, we will:

invest in the tools, processes, standards and frameworks needed to enable safe, secure data sharing across departments to support decision making and improve services

renew IT systems to automate and fully digitise repetitive manual processes and update outdated legacy IT systems, refocusing civil servants' time to higher valued added activities where it can deliver the most impact

invest in a system to streamline the management of our staff, allowing for great autonomy, self-service and the removal of excess process

Delivery, evaluation and collaboration:

We want to be excellent across our key professions and functions. Through our centres of excellence; additional specialist skills in our functions; more aligned working within our public bodies; and a focus on evidence-based policy and delivery, we will provide a better experience for the public.
In order to achieve our goals, we will:

strengthen functional expertise and delivery, ensuring adherence to functional standards and effective monitoring of performance

ensure our governance structure is fit for purpose and enables effective decision making at the right times

enhance our risk management capabilities to ensure better accountability and delivery confidence for our project and programme delivery

manage the planning cycle in such a way that it engages all staff in delivering priorities, through a well understood, efficient and transparent process

provide transparent accountability through regular reporting, both within the department, to the centre and parliament

Sustainability:

We want to embed sustainability across everything we do. We are working hard to improve our own sustainability through the Greening Government Commitments and to understand how we can promote better sustainability practices and support the net zero transition for all of our sectors.

Our 2021-25 Greening Government Commitments will be published later this year with ambitious targets across a number of areas including reducing our greenhouse emissions in line with the government 2050 net zero target. Our progress against these targets will be publicly reported annually.

In 2021 we are undertaking work to understand the environmental impact of our sectors and the levers available to us to reduce negative impact and promote positive sustainability practices.
In order to achieve our goals, we will:

ensure we are able to meet our greening government commitments and continue to monitor and track their delivery annually

continue to ensure that our estate, activities and policies are sustainable and support climate change mitigation, resilience and adaptation

work with our ALBs to significantly reduce fossil fuel emissions across the board

undertake work to understand the environmental impact of our sectors and identify the levers available to promote better sustainability practices and support the net zero transition

Greenhouse gas emissions

*against 2009/10 GHG baseline of 1,352 tonnes CO2e

Source: Greening Government Commitments annual reports / Release schedule: annually

E. Our equality objectives

We have set objectives to help us advance equality.
We are committed to improving the diversity of our people and creating an inclusive workplace. We will:

Continue to remove barriers to recruitment, development and promotion of a diverse workforce, including delivering on our commitment to support the government's levelling-up agenda by decentralising from London

Increase ethnicity, disability and sex representation and improve our ranking on social mobility to better represent the public we serve with particular focus on Senior Civil Service grades. We will also focus on closing the 'inclusion gap' to ensure a positive experience for all in the department.

We have a role in promoting equality across the UK through delivering our priority outcomes:

Outcome One: We will support greater social inclusion through improved connectivity by enabling individuals and communities to access, use and share information and knowledge, increasing social engagement and therefore improving quality of life. The Shared Rural Network and the UK Gigabit Programme support the levelling-up agenda, reducing regional inequalities.

Outcome Two: Growth and recovery in sectors most affected by COVID-19 have a critical impact on social inclusion and wellbeing. Reviving these sectors will both generate and restore employment opportunities, deliver mental health and social benefits as well as support tourism and drive investment, all of which contribute to reducing inequality gaps, fostering social cohesion and building resilience.

Outcome Three: We will address the disparities that limit the extent to which industry can exploit new technologies to deliver growth across the UK. Socially, differences in skills and access to digital technologies continue to prevent everyone from benefiting from technology and growth - we have a role in ensuring all communities, regions and businesses feel these benefits.

Outcome Four: We will ensure opportunities are available and accessible to all social groups, particularly those most disadvantaged, to bolster social cohesion and reduce equality gaps. Participation in culture, sport and civic society has been evidenced to reduce loneliness, support physical and mental health and wellbeing, and build and strengthen social ties.

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DCMS Outcome Delivery Plan: 2021 to 2022

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DCMS sectors are among the most dynamic and fast-growing in the UK. Supporting them through the pandemic has therefore not just been about protecting our nation's cultural and social fabric, but making an investment in the industries that will power our recovery.

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Economic growth means an increase in real GDP - an increase in the value of national output, income and expenditure. Essentially the benefit of economic growth is higher living standards - higher real incomes and the ability to devote more resources to areas like health care and education.

The benefits of economic growth include

Higher average incomes. Economic growth enables consumers to consume more goods and services and enjoy better standards of living. Economic growth during the Twentieth Century was a major factor in reducing absolute levels of poverty and enabling a rise in life expectancy.

Lower unemployment. With higher output and positive economic growth, firms tend to employ more workers creating more employment.

UK unemployment rises during a recession - falls during periods of economic growth.

Lower government borrowing. Economic growth creates higher tax revenues, and there is less need to spend money on benefits such as unemployment benefit. Therefore economic growth helps to reduce government borrowing. Economic growth also plays a role in reducing debt to GDP ratios.

A long period of economic growth in the post-war period helped reduce the UK debt to GDP ratio.

1. Improved public services. Higher economic growth leads to higher tax revenues and this enables the government can spend more on public services, such as health care and education e.t.c. This can enable higher living standards, such as increased life expectancy, higher rates of literacy and a greater understanding of civic and political issues.

2. Money can be spent on protecting the environment. With higher economic growth a society can devote more resources to promoting recycling and the use of renewable resources

3. Investment. Economic growth encourages firms to invest, in order to meet future demand. Higher investment increases the scope for future economic growth - creating a virtuous cycle of economic growth/investment.

4. Increased research and development. High economic growth leads to increased profitability for firms, enabling more spending on research and development. Also, sustained economic growth increases confidence and encourages firms to take risks and innovate.

5. Economic development. The biggest factor for promoting economic development is sustained economic growth. Economic growth in south-east Asia over the past few decades has played a major role in reducing absolute levels of poverty - increasing life expectancy.

6. More choice. In less developed economies, a large proportion of the population work in agriculture/subsistence farming, economic growth enables a more diverse economy with people able to work in service sector, manufacturing and having a greater choice of lifestyles.

Evaluation of economic growth

For developing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth enables countries to escape the worst levels of poverty. Even a small level of economic growth can facilitate higher living standards and an improvement in life expectancy. In the developed world, economic growth is less essential.

It depends on the nature of economic growth. For example, if economic growth leads to more pollution and congestion, then living standards may not seem to hit. It also depends on the distribution of economic growth - who benefits from economic growth. If growth benefits primarily the richest in society, growth may do little to overcome poverty.

Related

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Benefits of economic growth - Economics Help

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Economic growth means an increase in real GDP - an increase in the value of national output, income and expenditure. Essentially the benefit of economic growth is higher living standards - higher real incomes and the ability to devote more resources to areas like health care and education. Higher average incomes.

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Global Economic Prospects: The Global Economy: on Track for Strong but Uneven Growth as COVID-19 Still Weighs

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A year and a half since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy is poised to stage its most robust post-recession recovery in 80 years in 2021. But the rebound is expected to be uneven across countries, as major economies look set to register strong growth even as many developing economies lag.

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The impact of Covid-19 on global supply chains

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The impact of Covid-19 on global supply chains

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The impact of Covid-19 on global supply chains - Oxford Business Group

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The global distribution of medical goods and foodstuffs has become the primary focus of efforts to keep essential supply chains open during the coronavirus pandemic. As globalisation has increased, the world’s supply chains have become substantially more interconnected. Moreover, as emerging market economies have steadily come to account for a greater proportion of global GDP, goods

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Prospects for service trade recovery remain poor – WTO

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Prospects for service trade recovery remain poor – WTO

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11. Scotland, P., 2020. We must leverage the ‘Commonwealth Advantage’ to counter the economic fallout of COVID-19. [online] The Commonwealth. Available at: <https://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/we-must-leverage-commonwealth-advantage-counter-economic-fallout-covid-19> [Accessed 3 January 2022].

12.The world bank 2021. [online] Available at: <https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2021/06/08/the-global-economy-on-track-for-strong-but-uneven-growth-as-covid-19-still-weighs> [Accessed 5 January 2022].

13. The Commonwealth. 2018. Officials sketch the future of intra-Commonwealth trade. [online] Available at: <https://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/officials-sketch-future-intra-commonwealth-trade> [Accessed 3 January 2022].

14. The Commonwealth. 2021. US$345 billion loss in trade for Commonwealth countries due to pandemic. [online] Available at: <https://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/us345-billion-loss-trade-commonwealth-countries-due-pandemic> [Accessed 5 January 2022].

15.Trade-review.thecommonwealth.org. 2022. [online] Available at: <https://trade review.thecommonwealth.org/assets/pdf/ctr-2021.pdf> [Accessed 2 January 2022].

16. TurkishPress. 2022. Prospects for quick recovery in word trade improve WTO. [online] Available at: <https://turkishpress.com/prospects-for-quick-recovery-in-word-trade-improve-wto/> [Accessed 2 January 2022].

17.Youtube.com. 2022. [online] Available at: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oo39qy2KXtw&feature=youtu.be> [Accessed 5 January 2022].

18. Wasowicz, R., 2018. The Commonwealth advantage: trading with the bloc offers buoyant economic prospects. [online] LSE BREXIT. Available at: <https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/04/18/the-commonwealth-offers-buoyant-economic-prospects/> [Accessed 4 January 2022].

19. 3News 2021. [online] Available at: <https://3news.com/prospects-for-service-trade-recovery-remain-poor-wto/> [Accessed 3 January 2022].

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Digital Trade for Post-COVID Recovery and Resilience in the Commonwealth

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Digital Trade for Post-COVID Recovery and Resilience in the Commonwealth

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1. Other pages related to this release

More detailed commentary on the impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the UK economy and society is available on the following pages:
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Of the UK businesses responding to the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) Wave 4 who were continuing to trade and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations, the majority of exporting businesses (72%) reported that they are exporting less than normal, and 59% of importing businesses reported that they are importing less than normal.

One in five (20%) of these businesses reported that exporting has not been affected by COVID-19, and 29% that importing has not been affected by COVID-19; and only a small proportion reported that they are exporting or importing more than normal, 3% in both cases.

Businesses in the transportation and storage industry are most affected both in terms of reduced exporting and importing, at 81% and 80% respectively.

Among responding businesses who were continuing to trade and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations, challenges identified to exporting and importing were, respectively: COVID-19 related transport restrictions (34% and 31%), increases in transportation costs (21% and 18%), destination countries changing their border restrictions (17% and 12%), and closure of infrastructure (14% and 11 %); three in ten (30%) businesses reported that they do not experience exporting challenges and 19% that they do not experience challenges in importing.

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3. Impact of coronavirus on UK businesses

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the measures introduced by governments, including restrictions on travel, have inflicted an unprecedented shock to global trade ( WTO; OECD; IMF).

The analysis in this release complements the data in the statistical bulletin Coronavirus and the impacts on the UK: 21 May 2020, to provide a picture of the impact that COVID-19, and some of the measures introduced by governments in response to the pandemic, are having on exporting and importing by UK businesses.

The article is based on responses to the fourth wave of the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS), and refers to the reference period, 20 April to 3 May 2020. The figures included in this article are comparable with those included in the statistical bulletin Coronavirus and the economic impacts on the UK: 21 May 2020.
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4. Exporting and importing by responding businesses in the last 12 months

The importing and exporting questions in the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) are designed to capture economic-based information only from businesses who are trading and whose financial performance is outside of normal expectations. Of UK businesses continuing to trade that responded to the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS), 65% reported a turnover outside of normal range between 20 April and 3 May 2020. Economic information regarding businesses whose financial performance is within normal expectations (as well as those for whom performance is outside normal expectations) can be found in our usual business surveys and statistical releases, including the monthly publication, UK Trade.

The extent to which different businesses are export and import intensive is likely to influence how impacted they have been by COVID-19 in relation to international trade. Therefore, the level of importing and exporting in the last 12 months provide a useful context for the analyses in this article.

Of responding businesses who were continuing to trade and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations, 33% reported that they have exported in the last twelve months, and 43% reported that they have imported in the last twelve months.

This varies considerably between industrial sectors, with the manufacturing industry being the most export and import intensive at 77% and 85% respectively.

Figure 1: Across responding businesses, the manufacturing industry was the most export and import intensive in the last 12 months

Percentage of businesses continuing to trade, and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations, reporting to have exported or imported in the past twelve months, broken down by industrial sector, UK, 20 April to 3 May 2020

Source: Office for National statistics

Notes:

1. Final results, Wave 4 of the ONS Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS). UK businesses responding to the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) who were continuing to trade domestically and internationally and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations (n=898 exp, n=1,174 imp).

2. Results are removed where percentage less than 1% or industry count less than 10.

3. An option for "not sure" was presented to the businesses. This is not reflected in the chart

Download this chart

Around a third (33%) of responding businesses with 250 employees or more, and the same proportion of businesses with fewer than 250 employees (33%) reported that they have exported in the last twelve months. Nearly half (47%) of responding businesses with 250 or more employees and of businesses with fewer than 250 employees 41% reported that they have imported in the last twelve months.
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5. Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on exporting and importing

Of the responding businesses that are continuing to trade and whose financial performance is outside normal expectations, the majority of exporting businesses (72%) reported that they are exporting less than normal, 18% that exporting has not been affected by coronavirus (COVID-19), and 3% reported that they are exporting more than normal. Under 2% of businesses reported that they have stopped exporting in the last two weeks.

Of responding businesses that are continuing to trade and whose financial performance is outside normal expectations, 60% reported importing less than normal, 28% reported that importing has not been affected by coronavirus (COVID-19), and 3% that they are importing more than normal. Fewer than 2% of businesses reported that they have stopped importing in the last two weeks.

The highest percentage of businesses reporting that they are exporting and importing less than normal was in the transportation and storage industry, at 81% and 80% respectively, followed by the wholesale and retail trade industry at 80% and 65% respectively.

Of responding businesses with 250 or more employees, 67% reported that they are exporting less than normal and 57% reported that they are importing less than normal.

Among businesses with less than 250 employees, 75% reported that they are exporting less than normal and 62% reported that they are importing less than normal. There was little difference between destination of export and origin of imports, with similar proportions of businesses (72% and 74%) reporting that they are exporting less than normal to the EU and outside the EU respectively, and identical proportions (62%) reporting that they are importing less than normal from the EU and from outside the EU.

Figure 2: Across all industries, exporting was less than usual for 72% of exporting businesses, and importing less than usual for 60% of importing businesses

Effect on exporting and importing, businesses continuing to trade, whose financial performance was outside normal expectations, Traded during COVID-19, reporting effects of COVID-19 on trade, broken down by industry, UK, 20 April to 3 May 2020

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. Final results, Wave 4 of the ONS Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS). UK businesses responding to the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) who were continuing to trade domestically and internationally and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations (n=898 exp, n=1,174 imp)

2. Results are removed where percentage less than 1% or industry count less than 10.

Download this chart

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6. Challenges to exporting and importing and support options

Of responding businesses that were continuing to trade and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations, over 34% reported that coronavirus (COVID-19) related transport restrictions are an exporting challenge and 31% reported that these are an importing challenge. Around a fifth (21%) reported that increases in transportation costs are an exporting challenge and 18% reported that increases in transportation costs are an importing challenge. Nearly a third (30%) of businesses reported that they do not experience exporting challenges and 19% reported that they do not experience importing challenges.

Figure 3: COVID-19 related transport restrictions are the main exporting and importing challenges

Percentage of businesses continuing to trade, whose financial performance was outside normal expectations, reporting to have traded in the past 12 months, traded during COVID-19, broken down by industry, UK, 20 April to 3 May 2020

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. Final results, wave four of the ONS Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS). UK businesses responding to the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) who were continuing to trade domestically and internationally and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations (n=898 exp, n=1,174 imp)

2. Results are removed where percentage less than 1% or industry count less than 10.

3. Percentages do not sum to 100% because of firm's ability to select multiple options.

Download this chart

Of a range of potential support options that businesses might benefit from to help them meet exporting and importing challenges, 21% of businesses reported that financial support would help with exporting challenges, 16% and 13% respectively reported that support with customs and tariffs would help meet exporting and importing challenges, and 14% and 13% respectively reported that support with transport and distribution would help them meet exporting and importing challenges. This was consistent by business size. Overall, 27% and 30% respectively selected none of the exporting and importing support options that were presented. There was little difference by destination of exports or by origin of imports.

Figure 4: Across all industries, businesses indicated that a variety of options would help meet exporting and importing challenges

Percentage of businesses that are continuing to trade, whose financial performance is outside normal expectations, traded during COVID-19, experienced challenges, in the past two weeks, reporting potential support , broken down by industry, UK, 20 April to 3 May 2020

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. Final results, wave four of the ONS Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS). UK businesses responding to the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) who were continuing to trade domestically and internationally and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations (n=898 exp, n=1,174 imp)

2. Results are removed where percentage less than 1% or industry count less than 10.

3. Percentages do not sum to 100% because of firm's ability to select multiple option.

4. "None of the above" was also an option but is not reflected in the chart.

Download this chart

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7. Expectations for exporting and importing over the next two weeks

Of responding businesses who were continuing to trade and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations, an identical proportion (64%) reported that they expect exporting and importing to be the same, 11% reported that they expect exporting to become harder, 10% reported that they expect importing to become harder, 9% reported that they expect exporting to become easier, and 11% reported that they expect importing to become easier in the next two weeks.

Respectively 68% and 52% of businesses in the transport and storage industry reported that they expect exporting and importing to stay the same, and the same proportion (65%) of businesses in the manufacturing industry reported that they expect exporting and importing to remain the same. Respectively 17% and 14% of businesses in the transportation and storage industry reported that they expect exporting and importing to become more difficult, although a higher proportion of businesses in this industry compared with others, 22% and 26% respectively, reported that they expect exporting and importing to become easier in the next two weeks.

Figure 5: The majority of businesses expect exporting and importing to remain the same over the next two weeks

Percentage of businesses continuing to trade, whose financial performance was outside normal expectations, traded during COVID-19, reporting expectations of trading in the next 2 weeks, broken down by industry, UK, 20 April to 3 May 2020

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. Final results, wave four of the ONS Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS). UK businesses responding to the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS) who were continuing to trade domestically and internationally and whose financial performance was outside normal expectations (n=898 exp, n=1,174 imp)

2. Results are removed where percentage less than 1% or industry count less than 10 .

3. Business had the option not to answer the question, therefore total responses may not equal the total potential response.

Download this chart

There was very little difference in expectations for exporting by business size or destination of exports.

Four in five (80%) businesses with more than 250 employees reported that they expect importing to stay the same, 13% expect it to be easier and 13% expect it to be harder, compared with 56% of businesses with less than 250 employees who expect importing to stay the same, 11% expect it to be easier and 8% expect it to be harder. There was very little difference by origin of imports.
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As the UK adjusts to rapid changes in society, the economy and global trade, and experiences unprecedented challenges from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has developed a range of new experimental indicators on the UK economy and society, including information related to COVID-19. Indicators are constructed from novel data sources and experimental methods.

From the business responses discussed in this article, we are already seeing the impact of COVID-19 on businesses' experiences of exporting and importing across a number of indicators. COVID-19 has had an impact on both exporting and importing among responding businesses, with 72% of exporting businesses reporting that they are exporting less than usual, and 59% of businesses reporting that they are importing less than usual.

Exporting and importing are particularly impacted in some industries, such as transportation and storage, retail and wholesale and manufacturing. Future Trade data will help provide additional insight into a number of areas, including:

how the pandemic has impacted international trade volumes

the long-term industrial impacts

what the impact will be for UK trade in goods and services

We welcome feedback on these analysis priorities by emailing economic.advice@ons.gov.uk
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The impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on exporting and importing by UK businesses - Office for National Statistics

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Analysis of Wave 4 of the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS). This complements the BICS data by analysing the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on exporting and importing by responding UK businesses. The data refer to the period from 20 April to 3 May 2020.

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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Merchandise Trade in Commonwealth Countries

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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Merchandise Trade in Commonwealth Countries

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The ongoing impact of COVID-19 on global supply chains

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The ongoing impact of COVID-19 on global supply chains

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Companies should analyze supply chains now to mitigate against future disruptions.

Trade wars, global politics and national policies will influence the future of supply chain structures.

Investment in technology and considerations on sustainability in the supply chain will be key.

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the business environment for many organizations around the globe, and has highlighted the importance of being able to react, adapt and set up crisis management mechanisms in order to weather situations of uncertainty. As the acute restrictions and lockdowns created many urgent situations that required immediate attention in the early days of the pandemic, many companies have now begun to move to a "recovery mode" and have started planning for the longer term. As companies seek to strengthen operations and business resilience, the importance of supply chain resilience and risk management is more apparent than ever.

What have we seen happen?

Around the world, many companies are hugely reliant on production and supplies in China, Southeast Asia and other low-cost jurisdictions. In recent years, broad global developments have forced these companies to rethink their supply chains and their stability and reliability for an uncertain future. This is not just in relation to COVID-19 but many other externalities and government actions through the world, which have begun impacting supply chains, such as the increased risk of trade wars, trends of nationalism and protectionism, issues of sustainability and human rights considerations.

The overall impact of the outbreak and the resulting emergency measures on international trade resulting from COVID-19 remain to be seen. However, it is clear companies have been faced with substantial business and operational disruptions, which has included everything from mitigating the effects of reduced supply, to managing disruptions to logistics suppliers, and indeed hurdles in meeting their own contractual obligations to customers. Baker McKenzie recently produced a podcast on shock-proofing supply chains, which covers many of these hurdles in detail.

While many businesses have been nimble and ready to adapt to change, companies that have not already done so should prioritize analyzing their supply chains now, to understand where they might need to make changes or take action to mitigate against future disruptions. Considerations should include reviewing contractual obligations, assessing force majeure clauses, tax and employment implications of changes, relocation costs, entry and visa issues for staff, exit possibilities, as well as the option of swiftly reversing changes if the situation stabilizes or if new developments require the supply chain to adapt quickly.

COVID-19 has presented a unique situation in which to observe how these various systems and processes respond to acute severe stress and change. It has also shone a spotlight on the importance of investing in supply chain resilience to build stronger long-term operations. As we move into the future, it is vital to use what has been learned from recent events to prepare for the future.

What can we expect to see?

Over the past decades, the discussion around optimizing supply chains has focused primarily on cost efficiency and commercial best outcomes. However, as recent history has demonstrated, future supply chains will need to begin factoring resilience and adaptability into their calculations. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, some companies began anticipating this next evolution, but this crisis has exposed those weaknesses in the modern supply chain, such that many are looking at what to do next. Such decisions should of course not only focus on the supply side patterns, but must also consider that demand patterns may look different going forward - the key here is to have a holistic approach and ensure that many different perspectives are considered.

Trade wars, global politics and national policies will influence the future of supply chain structures

The global supply chain had begun responding to US-China tensions and we can expect the disruption caused by COVID-19 to accelerate the pace of this response. Trade analytics show China lost global export market share at an accelerated pace in 2019, as companies moved to other countries. We have seen low-cost production moving mainly to Mexico and Vietnam. Together, the two countries have grown their market across the consumer goods and technology, media, and telecoms (TMT) sectors to 12% and 9% by 2019, largely at the expense of China. Vietnam's clothing and smartphone exports, as well as Mexico's automobile parts and computer exports, all gained as well.

There is no simple substitute for China. The country accounts for 60% of global consumer goods exports and 41% of global TMT exports. However, we expect companies will be increasingly considering China +1 strategies. Where other countries will benefit from supply chain investments will depend largely on their own investments to boost manufacturing capability as well as provide attractive offerings for land, labour and logistics. At the same time, continued efforts to conclude free trade agreements (FTAs) could further impact where and how businesses seek to restructure their supply chains.

Investment in technology and considerations on sustainability in the supply chain will be key

As supply chains are reviewed, developments in technology and sustainability should also be considered. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the many different ways business can continue to effectively communicate and manage within a remote working environment, which many companies are likely to leverage going forward. Indeed, those operations with stronger digital infrastructure have fared better in the COVID-19 pandemic than those without.

Meanwhile, advances in artificial intelligence and new technologies, such as blockchain, may present opportunities for further supply chain innovation. Furthermore, as supply chains are arguably a mechanism by which businesses can create positive impact in the world, those looking to change their supply chains should consider how to integrate elements and practices around human rights including labour rights, environmental protection, product sustainability, inclusive economic growth and ethical business practices.

What is the World Economic Forum doing to manage emerging risks from COVID-19?

Radically changing an existing supply chain is not as easy as it may sound, as creating a robust and secure supply chain will still need to balance the demands for cost efficiency. At the same time, new logistics considerations may also have an impact on supply chains and the changes thereto. In the near term, it is expected that companies will begin seeking out a more diversified supplier base, while looking to develop a flexible, but cost efficient, supply chain.

For the longer term, however, companies will need to undertake a more holistic analysis, which may lead to more drastic changes, such as moving supply chains nearby, or to different countries, as well as increasing the digitalizing of supply chains, with a view of creating a more sustainable operation for the future. A holistic analysis should be based on facts and include the modelling and testing of different scenarios. Change scenarios should also include a contingency plan that provides for the possibilities of having to quickly revert and adjust elements of the supply chain.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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The ongoing impact of COVID-19 on global supply chains

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Companies should analyze supply chains now to mitigate against future disruptions. Trade wars, global politics and national policies will influence the future of supply chain structures. Investment in technology and considerations on sustainability in the supply chain will be key.