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Red Flags: Confusion Correlation with Causation

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Red Flags: Confusion Correlation with Causation

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Correlation between two events which people think the correlation is the cause.

Connection: This video describes how correlation is just coincidence. The video says some people think Ice Cream causes forest fires.

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How Ice Cream Kills! Correlation vs. Causation

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Patternicity is when you start seeing images of something that isn't there. Like seeing a face in a tree, or hear voices in in random sounds generated by electronic devices.

Connection: This picture below is a good example of patternicity as all you should be seeing is a regular pink flower, but some people will see the human skull in the middle.

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Reasons for Belief : Perception and Observation

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Reasons for Belief : Perception and Observation

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Combining our observations and beliefs we create information that will end up influences our decisions and perception of a situation.

Connections: This video shows people playing catch and your goal is to count how many catches the team in white gets, but while you are doing this a bear walks in frame and you don't notice it because your brain is only concentrating on the team in the white and nothing else.

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Appeal to Authority is when someone believes in something must be true because someone who is famous or looks smart claims it is true.

Connection: after looking at the image below some people may believe Colgate is the best as people in white lab coats are saying so.

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Ideology is the beliefs that a set of people believe in that influences the way other behave.

Connection: These are some of the top ten Ideology people believe in and those that believe in one of these Ideology end up disagreeing with everyone else that isn't in the same group.

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1 Libertarian Capitalism

Small government only military for security, personal freedom and free unrestricted economy. Economy and businesses are governing forces. - Dyshpo

The big disadvantage is that it gives those who rise up to the top (often through dishonest or aristocratic means) too much power so they are free to use the workers to fuel their greed. - DieGedankenSindFrei

Conservatism by Dyshpo's definition has the weakness of being way too conformist, while social liberalism promotes illogical government policies. Choosing right-wing policies does not need to mean discouraging social change. Right-libertarianism combines cultural freedom with sensible economic (and sometimes even social) government policies. - romanempire249

The ideology that says screw poor people and that disregards reasonable measures to deal with market failure. - Y2K

Stimulus to individual activity, enterprise followed by happiness.

If only Dyshpo were right. Alas, modern conservatism is more focused on on denying climate change and trying to stop gay people from getting married than it is on balanced budgets and small government.

The ideology that doesn't focus on race at all but rather the content of ones character. Which is how it should be.

Man cannot change or control the climate or the Earth. We are NOT gods.

This is good

I agree with some liberal things such as gay marriage and marijuana legalization however I think they usually go too far for the sake of being "politically correct." - SammySpore

Small government, regulated economy, medium social safety net, liberal use of tax revenue, social changes happen fast. - Dyshpo

An ideology that has been ruined by Tumblr freaks

Perfect.

4 Libertarian Socialism

Personal freedom as long as no one harmed with big government geared mainly towards public welfare. - Dyshpo

Liberation from the rulers, and from the bosses.

ABSOLUTELY

If anyone is interested in the success of Anarchism (libertarian socialism) and its principles, read this: https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/peter-gelderloos-anarchy-works

Works only on an extremely small scale. Almost all of the "countries" who practice it are not only smaller than most US states, they are in fact smaller than large US counties. Sweden for example has fewer people than just Los Angeles County alone.

Best countries in the world are all social democracies.

Best ideology ever.-DarkBoi-X

6 Classical Liberalism

The best liberalism, much better than SJW style liberalism. The people that believe that your gay neighbors can be married and have guns and smoke weed and basically the coolest people ever. - SoldierOfFortune

Classical liberalism is The Enlightenment Era ideology comprised of John Locke, Adam Smith, John Stewart Mill, Thomas Hobbes, and many more in the 1700's that ultimately influenced (mostly by Locke) our Founding Fathers and inspired them to fight the American Revolution. It is the idea's of the natural law theory and the social contract: laws of nature in which nature's God entitled them and the natural rights derivative from those laws which are life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness, property, and privacy; in which it is the job of the government to protect those rights and when any form of government becomes destructive of these ends it is the right and duty of the people to throw off such government and establish a new one (These ideas written in our declaration of independence had a huge impact on the actual document). Many of our founding Fathers like Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, and Samuel Adams were undoubtedly Classical Liberals and even Libertarians (Like Milton ... more - sdoggys

Communism has never worked, and never will - ryanrimmel

Education should be free

Still better than trash called Anarchism. - 50

Long live Lenin!

I agree with some of their policies but not about the jews. - SammySpore

Heil hitler

sieg heil!

The Contenders

Everything for government Big Brother is all, nothing before. - Dyshpo

State run by the one with most resources or wealth absolutely anything goes selling people or selling organs. - Dyshpo

This one is the best, next one being libertarian capitalism

Very big and robust social safety net everyone pays 49% in taxes all industry is run and owned by labor. Classless no poor or rich just workers. - Dyshpo

Communism lite - SoldierOfFortune

All matters of state have been set with precedent only the most senior get to lead no social changes except by act of God. - Dyshpo

Opposite of Marxism and postmodernism

Only laws protect personhood and personal property, tiny government no borders everything is run by collective will. - Dyshpo

This is an oxymoron. Socialism requires bigger government. Far from anarchy - ryanrimmel

good meme

20 Political Humanitarianism

Is this a joke? Every time a fascist comes to power in a country, a lot of people end up dying.. a lot.

Fascism is good

Why is fascism a good thing? You damn warmonger, stop trying to make everyone on earth get cancer. - MChkflaguard_Yt

Nah. - 50

Go fascism!

Fascism is irrelevant and can't even live for 20 years unless you stay out of world war 2. - TeamRocket747

26 Liberal Internationalism

Everything is better than anarchy but totalitarian is nut suck. - TeamRocket747

Better than anarchy.

32 Individualist Anarchism

The biggest oxymoron of them all. - SquirrelMonkey

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Top Ten Best Ideologies On the Political Spectrum In the USA

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1 Libertarian Capitalism Small government only military for security, personal freedom and free unrestricted economy. Economy and businesses are governing forces. - Dyshpo The big disadvantage is that it gives those who rise up to the top (often through dishonest or aristocratic means) too much power so they are free to use the workers to fuel their greed.

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All Natural is when you believe that something that is "All Natural" (e.g organic food) is 100% safe and you can never go wrong with it.

Connection: This video shows some poisonous food that you can eat and can harm you. These items are common and some people may think food from nature can't do you harm.

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Ancient Wisdom is the belief that a method or item that was used in ancient times therefore it must be good now.

Connection: The link provided below talks about the 2012 apocalypse that was predicted by the Mayans. Many people believed that this apocalypse would happen and the only proof they had was what was told by the ancient Mayans

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It's remotely possible the world will end in December 2012. But don't credit the ancient Maya calendar for predicting it, say experts on the Mesoamerican culture.

(Related pictures: "2012 Doomsday Myths Debunked.")

It's true that the so-called long-count calendar-which spans roughly 5,125 years starting in 3114 B.C.-reaches the end of a cycle on December 21, 2012.

That day brings to a close the 13th Bak'tun, an almost 400-year period in the Maya long-count calendar.

But rather than moving to the next Bak'tun, the calendar will reset at the end of the 13th cycle, akin to the way a 1960s automobile would click over at mile 99,999.9 and reset to zero.

"We, of course, know that really means a hundred thousand [miles] and not zero," said William Saturno, an expert on Maya archaeology at Boston University.

"So, is [the end of Bak'tun 13] a large period ending? Yes. Did the Maya like period endings? Yes," Saturno said.

"Would this have been a period ending they thought was wicked cool? You bet. The biggest period endings they experience are Bak'tun endings."

But "was it predicted to be the end the world? No. That's just us."

Instead, for the Maya, the end of the long count represents the end of an old cycle and the beginning of a new one, according to Emiliano Gallaga Murrieta, the Chiapas state division director of Mexico's National Institute of Anthropology and History.

"It is like for the Chinese, this is the Year of the [Rabbit], and the next year is going to the Year of the Dragon, and the next is going to be another animal in the calendar," Gallaga said.

(Watch the full episode of 2012: Countdown to Armageddon online from the National Geographic Channel.)

Maya Prophecy for End of the World?

Written references to the end of Bak'tun 13 are few. In fact, most Maya scholars cite only one: a stone tablet on Monument 6 at the Tortuguero archaeological site in Mexico's Tabasco state. ( Take a Maya quiz.)

What exactly the tablet says, though, is a mystery, because the glyphs in question are partially damaged.

Nevertheless, scholars have taken several stabs at translations, the most prominent in 1996 by Brown University's Stephen Houston and the University of Texas at Austin's David Stuart.

Houston and Stuart's initial interpretation indicated that a god will descend at the end of Bak'tun 13. What would happen next is uncertain, although the scholars suggested this might have been a prophecy of some sort.

This 1996 analysis was picked up "on many New Age websites, associated forum discussions, and even a few book chapters" as evidence that the Maya calendar had predicted the end of the world, according to Stuart.

(See "2012 Prophecies Sparking Real Fears, Suicide Warnings.")

Houston and Stuart, however, independently revisited the glyphs recently and concluded that the inscription may actually contain no prophetic statements about 2012 at all.

Rather, the mention of the end of Bak'tun 13 is likely a forward-looking statement that refers back to the main subject of the inscription, which is the dedication of Monument 6.

In an October blog post about his conclusions, Stuart makes an analogy to a scribe wanting to immortalize the New York Yankees' 1950 sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies in that year's World Series.

If this writer were to use the Maya rhetorical device thought to be in Monument 6's inscription, the text might read:

"On October 7, 1950, the New York Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies to win the World Series. It happened 29 years after the first Yankees victory in the World Series in 1921. And so 50 years before the year 2000 will occur, the Yankees won the World Series."

Written this way, Stuart notes, the text mentions a future time of historical importance-the 50-year anniversary of the victory-but it does so in reference to the event at hand, i.e., the 1950 game.

"This is precisely how many ancient Maya texts are structured, including Tortuguero's Monument 6," Stuart writes.

2012 Apocalypse Just Poetic Flourish

According to INAH's Gallaga, this structure of Maya texts is what has confused modern minds, given our penchant for literal, straightforward reading.

Even if the Monument 6 inscription refers to a god coming down at the end of Bak'tun 13, it isn't a statement about the end of the world, he said.

"They are writing in a more poetic sense, saying, Well, on the 21st of December 2012, the god is going to come down and start a new cycle and the old world is going to die and the new world is going to be reborn-just to make it more poetic."

(Read about the rise and fall of the Maya in National Geographic magazine.)

Saturno, the Boston University archaeologist, agreed that the reference to a specific date is clear in Monument 6, but added that "there's no text that follows and says, Herein will be the end of the world, and the world will end in fire. ... That's not anywhere in the text."

(Related video: Surviving 2012-Preparation.)

Rather, Saturno said, the hype around 2012 stems from dissatisfied Westerners looking to the ancients for guidance, hoping that peoples such as the Maya knew something then that could help us through difficult times now.

In any case, even if the ancient inscriptions explicitly predicted the end of the world, Saturno wouldn't be worried, given the Maya track record with long-range prophecy.

"They didn't see [their] collapse coming. They didn't see the Spanish conquest coming."

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End of World in 2012? Maya "Doomsday" Calendar Explained

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It's remotely possible the world will end in December 2012. But don't credit the ancient Maya calendar for predicting it, say experts on the Mesoamerican culture. (Related pictures: "2012 Doomsday Myths Debunked.") It's true that the so-called long-count calendar-which spans roughly 5,125 years starting in 3114 B.C.-reaches the end of a cycle on December 21, 2012.

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Proof by Verbosity is when someone tries to convince your judgement by giving you complex reasoning.

Connection: The below image is a post from a person that is trying to explain that god doesn't exist and to do so he doesn't show any facts but he instead tries to confuse your with random reasoning.