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Brexit has shaken the British economy to its core. Will Britain ever recover? What will need to happen for Britain to gain the economic power it had before Brexit? Write your opinion using cited material. Then comment on three other students' posts, agreeing or disagreeing, and offering a supported argument.

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Brexit: what consequences does it involve?

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Brexit: what consequences does it involve?

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Brexit is an abbreviation of "British exit", which implies the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union starting from 31 December 2020. Undoubtedly, this decision had involved drastic, dramatic consequences concerning not only the British economy and the mode of life of the UK in its entirety, but also some other countries, predominantly European ones as I found out after research. However, in this essay, the attention will be focused on economic issues regarding the United Kingdom only and the consequences of such a withdrawal.

All long-term benefits from leaving the EU notwithstanding, Great Britain has been facing subsequent deterioration in the economic sector since Brexit was introduced. 'According to a December 2017 Financial Times analysis, the Brexit referendum results had reduced national British income by between 0.6% and 1.3%,' says Wikipedia. Besides, previous uncertainty around Brexit had involved volatility of the pound that was caused by investors' lack of confidence. As it was reported by Stanford University and Nottingham University in 2018, the investments by businesses had been reduced by 'approximately 6 percentage points', which in turn resulted in redundancy of 1.5 percentage points in the UK. These analyses portray that Great Britain had an economic decline at the state of negotiation; as most economists declare, this tendency will proceed due to the fact that 'EU membership has a strong positive effect on trade and as a result the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU'. It is acknowledged that Brexit shall reduce country's exports and make import more expensive. 'Depending on the extent of trade policy isolation, the UK’s real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would be between 0.6 and 3.0 percent lower in the year 2030 than if the country remained in the EU,' validates the pre-cited statement Bertelsmann Stiftung.

At the very beginning, it was mentioned that Brexit has positive affects on British mode of life in the long run, despite all economic issues having been predicted after many a research. As the IG portal notes, the United Kingdom will prevent its policy from being influenced by European politicians that will enable its governors to have more control over laws and regulations of the country in case of Brexit. Apart from this, Great Britain will have full boarder control, which is believed to increase level of security in this country. Besides, withdrawal from the EU will broaden the opportunities of trading with other countries, such as Japan, India and the USA, from which the UK shall benefit considerably. One more advantage of Brexit, which I want to mention, concerns EU membership fees which Great Britain will not be obliged to pay if leaving the union. As the IG portal suggests, these funds 'could be reperpoused and spent on issues that matter most to the British people'.

All things considered, I strongly believe that not only will the UK gain the economic power it had before Brexit, but it also will improve its level of life, and yet it is not the matter of couple of years. The withdrawal from the European Union had involved unpleasant economic consequences for this country but had enabled it to be sovereign, thereby having made it responsible for determining its future.

References:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicted_impact_of_Brexit

https://www.ig.com/en/financial-events/brexit/pros-and-cons-of-brexit

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/brexit/

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There are several main factors of the British market downturn. To begin with, the logistic sector faces many challenges after Brexit. New customs policies made it more difficult for the suppliers and exporters to cross the UK border. Another aspect is the labour shortage. There are not enough drivers to transport the goods or staff to work on the farms, a hospitality industry lacks about 180.000 workers.

From my standpoint, to mitigate those issues the UK should enact flexible policies so that it will not harm the industries and ease the process of exporting and importing goods. I understand that it is extremely challenging to leave the EU without any radical changes that might be harmful to the UK, but as as the time goes the government will be able to try different ways of dealing with the rest of the world and find the best one.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/08/uk-employers-struggle-with-worst-labour-shortage-since-1997

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXbiDpgtmk4&ab_channel=Channel4News

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It is hard to estimate Brexit impact on the UK economy today. In first 4 years it will lose around 40 billions dollars. After the announcement of the Brexit many companies moved all their offices, workers and money to the continental Europe. Also before the Brexit banks transfered around 1 trillion dollars out of the UK. It has affected economy a lot.  British export to the EU fell by 19,3%. It has affected economy a lot. Economists also suppose that this tendency will increase in the future and COVID will enhance all the Problems. In my opinion in the next 20 years GB economy will not recover. But in the long-term perspectives it will definitely happen. Brexit will make British economy more independent, consequently they will have possibility to use their resources more efficient.

To gain the economy British government has to return investment that they have lost. They can reach this goal by the decreasing taxes.  Consequently, in some time the UK will recovere their economy and even make it stronger than it was previously.

Information was taken from:

https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cepcovid-19-021.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

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Brexit: what will happen to Great Britain?

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Brexit: what will happen to Great Britain?

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To say the least, Brexit is a withdrawal of the UK from the EU, that has a lot of legacy and impact on both sides.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm in favour of the idea, that the negative impact of Brexit is short-term and that's why Great Britain will possibly recover in the near future.
Not only the UK has suffered the economic downturn, but the whole world, due to COVID-19. Many people lost their jobs and even more people could not protect their businesses. However, the pandemic is getting lover thanks to varieful vaccine options and the fact, that population of Britain has so called herd immunity. "In terms of herd immunity – by which we mean the virus has managed to reach everybody and therefore most people will have a level of immune memory – I suspect we’re very close to it." - says Dr David Matthews from the University of Bristol about the possible end of COVID-19.

Taking everything into consideration, I believe, that the UK will recover and, moreover, increase its economy, but the only possible way for this future is coming through tough pandemic and involving more people in importing industry, as Great Britain is one of the world's rop import countries.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-still-imports-more-outside-eu-than-bloc-gap-narrowing-2021-07-09/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/13/uk-economy-growth-covid-exports-eu-brexit

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Problems of Post-Brexit British economy. 

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Problems of Post-Brexit British economy. 

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After leaving European Union in 2020 due to the referendum in 2016, United Kingdom faced an amount of economic problems. The most substantial problems, as for me, are in the trading, security and labor economic sectors. According to IMF research one-quarter of domestic financial sector revenues are related to EU clients, and, as a result, financial services output could fall by as much as 15 percent. In addition, the EU is the UK’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly half of the UK’s trade in goods and services. Because of restrictions and barriers, trade between UK and REU (Rest of the European Union) might reduce. These statistics are absolutely awful for the British economy.

The biggest problem in the security sector is the fact that there are a lot of new barriers for immigrants, so companies that depend on migrate-workers will be damaged strongly. Due to it, researchers expect long-period unemployment in Britain.

In my opinion, UK should come to the arrangement in mentioned above sectors with EU, to repair their trade flows and get British economy off the ground.

https://blogs.imf.org/2018/12/04/the-uneven-path-ahead-the-effect-of-brexit-on-different-sectors-in-the-uk-economy/

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/twec.12859

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Brexit: pros and cons. The recovery of economy

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Brexit: pros and cons. The recovery of economy

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Brexit is the UK’s exit from the European Union. It follows a referendum result on 23 June 2016. Leaving the European Union has a profound impact on individuals and businesses in the UK. The European Union has grown to become a “single market” allowing goods and people to move around, basically as if the member states were one country. However, all these privileges disappeared when the UK left the EU in 2021.

There are different opinions concerning the consequences of Brexit. In the paragraphs below I will show some pros and cons of it.

The European Union is the UK’s largest trade partner. Around a half of the UK’s trade is with the EU. EU membership reduces trade costs between the UK and the EU. This makes goods and services cheaper for UK consumers and allows UK businesses to export more. Leaving the EU would lower trade between the UK and the EU because of higher tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.

Furthermore, freedom to work and live between the UK and the EU also comes to an end. In 2021, UK nationals will need a visa if they want to stay in the EU more than 90 days in a 180-day period.

Brexit on the other hand had positive impact too. Firstly, it will help in decreasing overcrowding which UK complains that it affects its economy on a large scale. Moreover, some UK skilled workers are working in other countries and Brexit will help to bring talent back to UK.

Secondly, it will solve the multi-currency problems i.e. it will solve the problems in converting euros to pounds or pounds to euros as only single currency would be available.

Thirdly, it will help UK government in lowering taxes on every item as government will not have to pay extra for the membership.

Will Britain ever recover from Brexit?

Nobody truly knows. This is almost impossible to answer, all of the suggestions (by economists, not journalists or politicians) estimate 10–30 years. However, in Wikipedia it is said that the effects can be rather severe and unpredicted. Economists suggest that the UK is in for some short time pain. The optimists hope that with Britain, which is now free to set its own rules rather than fitting in with what the EU bloc wants, it can become super competitive and sooner we will see strong economic growth.

Personally, I suppose that it will take somewhat longer for the United Kingdom to recover from Brexit than to recover from the 2007-2008 crash. However, it will be more like a recession with a reduction in standards of living. How to best recover? People should get on with Brexit and put all the uncertainties behind. The government should embrace the opportunities that Brexit provides, and make the most of them. It is implied that the UK should co-operate with the EU, and it will continue to do so, but as a neighbor, not a member.

Taking into consideration all the mentioned above, at this time it is hard to say that either it is a good decision or not but business analysts say it would be a fruitful decision for UK in future, as UK will have positive and negative impacts of Brexit on its economy. Time will tell.

Links

https://www.investopedia.com/brexit-deal-the-good-the-bad-the-ugly-5095827

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/66144/1/__lse.ac.uk_storage_LIBRARY_Secondary_libfile_shared_repository_Content_LSE%20BrexitVote%20blog_brexit02.pdf

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

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In the year of 2020 on 31st of January at 11 p.m. the United Kingdom withdrew from European Union. This action has raised a lot of controversy among people both inside and outside the UK. Brexit seriously influenced British companies, as before they were able to export and import goods from the EU with no taxes and no bureaucracy papers, which greatly increase delivery time. It's worth mention that Britain and Brussels agreed not to tax the goods. One may think that the problem is solved. However, there are still a lot of paperwork needed to be done with imported goods, which, as I mentioned before, takes a lot of time and even may result in goods rotting (=losing money). This factor may stop future investors from considering the UK as a country to put money in. But it is not the only problem. Scotland also wants to split, but London doesn't give its permission. This may result in strained relationship between them, which is obviously not good for the UK. If Scotland somehow make a split, Britain will lose 1/3 of its lands and nearly 8% of population.

Well, I suppose that Britain will recover in future undoubtedly. It just needs time and making right decisions. Firstly, the UK's government need to find out how can they improve weak points. For example, problem with paperwork can be tackled by increasing salaries for people working in customs control. This will help attracting more people to work there. As a result, less time will be spend on goods' delivery. Secondly, Britain needs to persuade Scotland to stay. Otherwise, it will result in losing a large number of workers, important lands and also investors, as Britain's prestige will be seriously damaged. Thirdly, the UK needs to review the idea of toughing up migrant control, as there are a bunch of companies which are in need of cheap labour.

Reference:

https://www.nytimes.com/article/brexit-uk-eu-explained.html#link-5ad10db6

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The fact that Britain left the EU is considered to be rather controversial.

On the one hand, The UK will have the opportunity to make decisions without the EU approval. On the other hand, it had a huge impact on the economy. According to Financial times, the UK has lost billions of pounds in annual gross domestic product after Brexit. It was a harmful consequence of Brexit to the British economy. It has also affected regular workers. Many people lost their jobs because of that.

In my opinion, this situation with British economy is temporary. Although, new policies brought some difficulties, in a long term prospective that may be benefitial for Britain. The UK will have more independancy thus they can control everything connected with their country themselves.

I think the British government need to develop their own industries to recover from Brexit and support British companies as they do not have help from Europe anymore. Therefore, Britain has to make a plan how to recover from Brexit without any outside interference.

All in all, there are both advantages and disadvantages in Brexit. People can see the result of that action only in many years.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Walid-Abouzeid/publication/354248721_E2306103036/links/612e451ac69a4e48796e4cc6/E2306103036.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit

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On January 31, 2021, the EU lost a key member.

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On January 31, 2021, the EU lost a key member.

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London was the financial capital of Europe. 2 countries out of 4 countries of the United Kingdom are extremely dissatisfied with Brexit.
The UK authorities now want to relax the strict rules of Europe and even reduce taxes, which is good for the rich part of the population, businessmen and financiers.
Britain has always been a key ally of the United States in Europe and, according to the BBC, the economy will also suffer greatly, since more than half of all economic activity in the world is accounted for by the United States, China and the European Union. Brexit will impoverish both Britain and Europe. The safest option for everyone is to leave everything as it is. To do this, they will have to agree to the same conditions under which Switzerland lives with the EU, which initially did not suit Brexit supporters very much. So, the gap will be destructive and long.  A good option would be to join the European Free Trade Association or accept similar conditions for Britain and the EU. This will give the same rights as the members of the union (free sale of goods and free movement of capital and people). Thus, Britain will retain most of the advantages that it had in the EU related to duty-free trade.
The option that Jones himself spoke about is an agreement like Canada and the EU. Unlike the European Economic Area, the agreement with Canada, although it removes a lot of duties, still retains them for some important goods. It will also affect education and security, but not much.
If we talk about a"hard Brexit" -when Britain will trade with the EU through the World Trade Organization, like all other countries of the world. Which is very unprofitable for both the EU and Britain, since everything will be screwed up by duties and will make it difficult to transport goods. The British automotive industry has an unforgivable lot to lose from such a situation.
Links:
https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

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Get the latest BBC Politics news: breaking news, comment and analysis plus political guides and in-depth special reports on UK and EU politics.

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The Post-Brexit impact on The United Kingdom

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The Post-Brexit impact on The United Kingdom

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To begin with, The United Kingdom decided to leave the EU in March 2019. British economy was shaken to its core because of the Brexit. During the UK’s membership in the EU the country had privileges and a special trade arrangement that gave the UK an opportunity to sell goods and services without any tariff and non-tariff barriers. Moreover, the British economy was literally based on trading the European Union. Consequently, the Union was the largest trading partner of the Britain, so a greater weight of British production was exported to Europe. For instance, 56% of British cars were sold to the EU and about 25% of UK-produced financial services also related to EU clients. By and large, the UK’s economy, to say the least, is out of shape nowadays; every sector is seriously damaged and needs a complex recovery and reorganization for the future economic success.

From my standpoint, I reckon that the British economy will recover and become stronger and more sustainable. I believe that a total improvement and development of each economy sector might be valuable because the most complicated stage is achieving economic self-sufficiency. At the same time, The United Kingdom should do its best to prevent their trading relationships that had been structuring and organizing for years from wrecking. It’s just a matter of time.

References:

https://blogs.imf.org/2018/12/04/the-uneven-path-ahead-the-effect-of-brexit-on-different-sectors-in-the-uk-economy/

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-still-imports-more-outside-eu-than-bloc-gap-narrowing-2021-07-09/

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How did Brexit impact the economy of the UK?

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How did Brexit impact the economy of the UK?

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''Brexit'' stands for "British exit" from the EU. On June 23, 2016 the U.K. voted to leave the EU and in 2020 it actually did. People had different opinions on whether it was something that the UK needed or something it didn't, but my job is to find out how did Brexit affect Britain's economy.

Kimberly Amadeo from thebalance.com writes:
''Brexit's biggest disadvantage is its damage to the U.K.'s economic growth. Most of this has been due to the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome.

Uncertainty over Brexit slowed the U.K.'s growth from 2.4% in 2015 to 1.0% in 2019. The U.K. government estimated that Brexit would lower the U.K.’s growth by up to 6.7% over 15 years. It assumed the current terms of free trade but restricted immigration.
The British pound fell from $1.48 on the day of the referendum to $1.36 the next day. That helps exports but increases the prices of imports. It has not regained its pre-Brexit high''.

So, as we can understand, Brexit had a huge and bad impact on the UK's economy.

Personally, I think that one of the ways to regain its economic power, Britain has to improve its relations with countries that have a strong impact on the world's economy, such as Russia, the USA and China. Of course it is not something easy and quick to do and it probably won't work with all three of the countries I've mentioned, but the UK at least has to try, because having a strong ''ally'' is something that gives a country good prospects.

https://www.thebalance.com/brexit-consequences-4062999#how-did-brexit-impact-the-us

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On Dec. 31, 2020, the transition period for the United Kingdom (U.K.) to withdraw from the European Union (EU), otherwise known as "Brexit," officially came to an end. This marked the end of a years-long process that was overseen by two different Prime Ministers, included several delays and extensions, and left the U.K. divided.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

What Was Brexit?

Brexit was the nickname for "British exit" from the EU, the economic and policy union that the U.K. had been a member of since 1973.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ That changed on June 23, 2016, when the U.K. voted to leave the EU.﻿﻿ The residents decided that the benefits of free trade weren't enough to offset the costs of free movement of immigration. The vote was 17.4 million in favor of leaving versus 16.1 million who voted to remain.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

What Caused Brexit?

In 2015, the Conservative Party called for the referendum. Most of the pro-Brexit voters were older, working-class residents of England's countryside.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ They were afraid of the free movement of immigrants and refugees, claiming in the process that citizens of poorer countries were taking jobs and benefits.

Small businesses were also frustrated by EU fees. Others felt leaving the EU would create jobs. Many felt the U.K. paid more into the EU than it received.

Those who voted to stay in the EU primarily lived in London, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.﻿﻿﻿ They liked free trade with the EU, and claimed most EU immigrants were young and eager to work. Most felt that leaving the EU would damage the U.K.'s global status.﻿﻿﻿

Brexit Process

Leaving the EU was a complicated process. Former U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, following the voters' will, submitted the Article 50 withdrawal notification to the EU on March 29, 2017.﻿ She negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the EU that outlined their new relationship but couldn't get approval from a divided Parliament.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

In July 2019, Boris Johnson succeeded May as the U.K.'s Prime Minister.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ Johnson's Conservative party subsequently attained a majority during a royally mandated general election on Dec. 12, 2019.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ That allowed him to get Parliament's approval of the Withdrawal Agreement he negotiated with the EU.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

On Jan. 23, 2020, the Agreement Act received the necessary legislative Royal Assent, which is when the Queen formally agrees to make the bill into law.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ The U.K. formally left the EU on Jan. 31, 2020, but entered a transition process that ended on Dec. 31, 2020. The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement was agreed to on Dec. 24, 2020 (and signed on Dec. 30).﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement Summary

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement has three main pillars: trade, cooperation, and governance that took effect on Jan. 1, 2021. Notably, the agreement does not cover foreign policy and defense.﻿﻿﻿﻿

The U.K. is no longer part of the customs union and single market with the EU.﻿﻿ Instead, it has a trade agreement that allows zero tariffs and zero quotas on goods traded that comply with the appropriate rules of origin.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

Free movement between the U.K. and EU has ended. European nationals already living in the U.K. must make sure they have documents from the U.K. government specifically allowing them to remain.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

Travelers﻿ between the EU and the U.K. must have passports ready to show at the border.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ Business travelers have additional requirements. If they do business regularly in an EU country, they may need to set up a local subsidiary. Many services, such as telecommunications, broadcasting, and electronic services, may be taxed.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

The U.K. must pay a "divorce bill" of 25 billion pounds by 2057. This is to fulfill any remaining financial commitments made while a member of the EU.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

While EU law no longer applies to the U.K.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿, the latter will cooperate with the EU on law enforcement and criminal justice matters.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

Governance

The agreement established a Joint Partnership Council to make sure the agreement is properly applied and interpreted. This includes dispute settlement, legal enforcement, and rules for retaliation if needed.﻿﻿

How Did Brexit Impact the UK?

The U.K. has already suffered from Brexit. The economy has slowed, and many businesses have moved their headquarters to the EU.﻿﻿ Here are some of the impacts on growth and jobs. There would also be consequences specific to Ireland, London, and Scotland.

Brexit's biggest disadvantage is its damage to the U.K.'s economic growth. Most of this has been due to the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome.

Uncertainty over Brexit slowed the U.K.'s growth from 2.4% in 2015 to 1.0% in 2019.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ The U.K. government estimated that Brexit would lower the U.K.'s growth by up to 6.7% over 15 years. It assumed the current terms of free trade but restricted immigration.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

The British pound fell from $1.48 on the day of the referendum to $1.36 the next day. That helps exports but increases the prices of imports. It has not regained its pre-Brexit high.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

Brexit hurts Britain's younger workers. Germany is projected to have a labor shortage of 3 million skilled workers by 2030.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ Those jobs won't be as readily available to the U.K.'s workers after Brexit.

Employers are having a harder time finding applicants.﻿ One reason is that EU-born workers left the U.K., their numbers falling by 95% in 2017. This has hit the low-skilled and medium-skilled occupations the most.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

The U.K. must negotiate new trade agreements with countries outside of the EU, which had more than 40 trade agreements with 70 countries already in place.﻿﻿﻿

Northern Ireland remains with the U.K. The Republic of Ireland, with which it shares a border, stays a part of the EU. The agreement avoids a customs border between the two Irish countries.

A customs border could have reignited The Troubles, which was a 30-year conflict in Northern Ireland between mainly Catholic Irish nationalists and pro-British Protestants.﻿﻿ In 1998, it ended with the promise of no border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. A customs border would have forced about 9,300 commuters to go through customs on their way to and from work and school.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿

Brexit has already depressed growth in the U.K.'s financial center of London, which saw only 1.4% in 2018 and was close to zero in 2019. Brexit also diminished business investment by 11% between 2016 and 2019.﻿﻿﻿

International companies are less likely to use London as an English-speaking entry into the EU economy.﻿ Barclay's moved 5,000 clients to its Irish subsidiary, while Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley switched 10% of their clients. Bank of America has also transferred 100 bankers to its Dublin office and 400 to a broker dealer unit in Paris.﻿﻿﻿﻿

Scotland voted against Brexit.﻿﻿﻿﻿ The Scottish government believed that staying in the EU was the best for Scotland and the U.K. It had been pushing the U.K. government to allow for a second referendum.

To leave the U.K., Scotland would have to call a referendum on independence. It could then apply for EU membership on its own.﻿﻿﻿﻿

The Brexit Vote

In summary, the Brexit vote imposed these three hard choices on the U.K.:﻿﻿﻿﻿

1. Leave with no deal, known as "no-deal Brexit." Without a trade agreement, ports would be blocked and airlines grounded. In no time, imported food and drugs would run short.

2. Vote again on Brexit. Many argue that voters did not understand the economic hardships that Brexit would impose. On Dec. 10, 2018, the European Court of Justice ruled that the U.K. could unilaterally revoke its Brexit application to remain in the EU.﻿﻿

3. Approve a negotiated deal. The sticking point had been the nature of the border between the U.K.'s Northern Ireland and the EU's Republic of Ireland.﻿﻿

How Did Brexit Impact the EU?

Brexit is a vote against globalization. As a result, it has weakened forces in the EU that favor integration.﻿﻿﻿﻿ Members of right-wing,anti-immigration parties are particularly anti-EU in France and Germany. If they gained enough ground, they could force an anti-EU vote. If either of those countries left, the EU would lose its most robust economies and would dissolve.

On the other hand, the majority of EU citizens still strongly support the union.﻿﻿﻿ In a Pew Research Center survey across 10 European nations, almost 75% say the EU promotes peace, and 55% believe it supports prosperity. In addition, more than a third see the role of the U.K. as diminishing.﻿﻿

How Did Brexit Impact the US?

Brexit threw into uncertainty the status of London as a global financial center. U.S. stability, though, means London's loss could be New York's gain.

The day after the Brexit vote, the currency markets were in turmoil. The euro fell 2% to $1.11.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ The pound fell 8% to $1.36.﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿﻿ Both increased the value of the dollar. That strength is not good for U.S. stock markets. It makes American shares more expensive for foreign investors.

A weak pound also makes U.S. exports to the U.K. more expensive, although that hasn't slowed exports. In 2019, U.S. exports to the U.K. were $147.4 billion, up from $141 billion in 2018. That's created a $21.8 billion trade surplus. Meanwhile, imports were only $125.6 billion.﻿﻿﻿

Brexit dampened business growth for companies that operate in Europe. U.S. companies invested $851.4 billion in the U.K. in 2019.﻿﻿ Most of this was in the finance and insurance sector, as well as manufacturing and nonbank holding companies. These U.S. companies previously used the U.K. as the gateway to free trade with the EU nations. U.K. businesses, on the other hand, invested $505.1 billion in the U.S. in 2019, up 1.7% from 2018. Most of this was in manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance.﻿﻿﻿﻿

The U.K. is in the process of negotiating a trade deal with the U.S. The biggest stumbling block is agriculture. The U.K. requires greater food safety and animal welfare regulations than the U.S. does. U.K. farmers are concerned about inferior, cheaper agriculture products putting them out of business.﻿﻿﻿﻿

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What Was Brexit, and How Did It Impact the UK, EU, and the US?

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On Dec. 31, 2020, the transition period for the United Kingdom (U.K.) to withdraw from the European Union (EU), otherwise known as "Brexit," officially came to an end. This marked the end of a years-long process that was overseen by two different Prime Ministers, included several delays and extensions, and left the U.K.

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After analyzing some articles in the internet and reading some articles from my groupmates i consider that there is only one truly point of view. Of course nowadays UK is having many problems because of Brexit (British exit). There are some facts:

56% of British cars were sold to the EU and about 25% of UK-produced financial services also related to EU clients.

British export to the EU fell by 19,3%.

The British pound fell from $1.48 on the day of the referendum to $1.36 the next day.

But in the long – term British economy will not degradate, even on the contrary it will improve. So we can say that the UK need to go through the problems i have mentioned before and win their independence from the EU.

https://blogs.imf.org/2018/12/04/the-uneven-path-ahead-the-effect-of-brexit-on-different-sectors-in-the-uk-economy/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/07/government-ease-sewage-discharge-rules-amid-chemical-shortage

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Brexit had some drastic consequences on the UK economy.

Firstly, it has already slowed UK's economy growth from 2.4% in 2015 to 1% in 2019 because of the uncertainty with trade politics with EU and other factors. According to the forecast of the UK government, economy of the country can be reduced nearly by 7% in the next 15 years due to Brexit. Moreover, Brexit weakened british pound, causing a drop of GBP/USD currency by 6.5% from 1.48$ in 2015 to 1.38$ nowadays.

Secondly, british employees suffer from Brexit a lot as now it's harder for them to apply for a job in EU. Also 95% of EU-born employees returned back from the UK so now it became harder for british employers to find qualified specialists.

Thirdly, Brexit made the UK a “third-party” country in the eyes of EU. And even though UK’s trade regulatory frameworks match those of the EU, several issues remain unsolved. There are some regulatory cooperation agreements about pharmaceutical manufacturing, vehicles, organic products, wine trade and chemicals, yet there are a lot of uncertainties.
However, after Brexit the UK has worked a lot to create and maintain its own global trading ties. For example, since the beginning of 2021 the United Kingdom has already pursued some new trade deals with Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, South Korea, and Turkey with which EU didn’t have trade agreements. Also trade agreements with India, Australia and the USA were replicated from existing ones in the EU.

Last but not least, the economy of the UK was struck hard by COVID-19 that knocked it down by 18.3%. Nonetheless, UK’s GDP increased by 2.3% in April 2021. However, in this situation with so many uncertainties about the end of Coronavirus pandemic, it’s very hard to predict when exactly and how strong the economy will recover. GDP of the UK decreased by 9.9% in 2020 but it showed a growth by 4% in 2021 and now experts forecast a growth by 7.3% in 2022.

In conclusion, I want to say that I strongly believe that the United Kingdom economy will recover after Brexit regarding all the hardships it suffered since 2016. As far as the UK creates new trade channels, maintains existing ones and keeps stimulating its domestic economy by attracting foreign investors and subsidizing it, everything should be just fine. However, this question is very controversial and there always remains a room for discussion.

Source:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Wali-Abouzeid/publication/354248721_E2306103036/links/612e451ac69a4e48796e4cc6/E2306103036.pdf

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How Brexit affected the UK economy?

 After United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union country have suffered huge economy problems. In this essay I would like to figure out what difficulties does UK face and is it possible to restore the country's economy. I believe that one of the worst economical UK problems is trading issues with EU. Covid-19 restrictions and Brexit double hit the country's volatile economy. According to the Office for National Statistics in February goods exports to the EU fell 40.7% and imports dropped 28.8%. The figures contributed to a 2.9% month-on-month decline in overall economic output. Overall, Britain’s exports dropped 19.3% and imports fell 21.6%, the biggest monthly declines since records began in 1997. Many famous British economists say that despite a difficult start of the year Britain still have chances to reopen their economy, if UK will continue to take all the steps necessary to support its recovery. I hope that Britain will be able to restore its economical position, however nowadays, due to the coronavirus, it is very difficult to predict the foreseeable future.

Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-grew-by-stronger-than-expected-21-mm-march-2021-05-12/

https://apnews.com/article/brexit-europe-global-trade-coronavirus-pandemic-gross-domestic-product-4cce8c373d7f7d98e6d34cf79daf334b

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Post-Brexit British economy by Gleb Smirnov

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Post-Brexit British economy by Gleb Smirnov

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‘Brexit’ is the name given to the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union. It is a combination of ‘Britain’ and ‘exit’.

Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real per-capita income level. 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK, and a cost of between 1–10% of the UK's income per capita. These estimates differ depending on whether the UK does a Hard or Soft Brexit. In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario.

According to most economists, EU membership has a strong positive effect on trade and, as a result, the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU. According to a study by University of Cambridge economists, under a hard Brexit, whereby the UK reverts to WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the EU would be tariff-free, one-quarter would face high trade barriers and other exports risk tariffs in the range of 1–10%. A 2017 study found that "almost all UK regions are systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in any other country." A 2017 study examining the economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration found that there would likely be "a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector." It is unclear how changes in trade and foreign investment will interact with immigration, but these changes are likely to be important.

https://www.government.nl/topics/brexit/question-and-answer/what-is-brexit

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

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'Brexit' is the name given to the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union. It is a combination of 'Britain' and 'exit'.

Referendum: majority votes to leave

On 23 June 2016, the UK held a referendum on its membership of the EU. The question facing voters was: 'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?' 51.89% of voters voted to leave the EU. The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020.

Transition period

Up to and including 31 December 2020 a transition period was in place. During that time nothing changed and the UK continued to comply with all EU laws and rules. Negotiations were also held on the new relationship between the UK and the EU during this time.

New relationship

On 24 December 2020 negotiators for the EU and the UK reached a deal on the two parties' new relationship. The EU and the UK have set out the terms of this deal in three agreements:

the Trade and Cooperation Agreement

the Information Security Agreement

the Nuclear Cooperation Agreement.

On 1 January 2021 the rules set out in these agreements will come into force. You can find out what this means for you on this website.

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'Brexit' is the name given to the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union. It is a combination of 'Britain' and 'exit'. On 23 June 2016, the UK held a referendum on its membership of the EU. The question facing voters was: 'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'

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Post-Brexit climb back: how can Britain regain its former power ?

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Post-Brexit climb back: how can Britain regain its former power ?

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Before writing this note I had only a slight idea about the Brexit and all the economic consequences it has led to. However, after going through a reasonable amount of academic articles, I can surly state, that Brexit has had a negative economic impact on the UK. Logistic companies now have to constantly deal with red tape. Same applies to fishing and agriculture sectores. Trading has become considerably more complicated due to the different food standarts and increased taxes. I think there is no point in mentioning all problems and inconveniences companies, people and government on the whole have to face at present, as it is already clear that the decision, made on January 31, 2020, was a mistake.

Notwithstanding the disastrous situation, there is a way for Britian to regain its stability. One of the first things, that have to be done, is putting someone more compitent to the position of power in order to mitigate not all, but at least some of the diverse implications of a hard Brexit. I am convinced that, if managed right, the initial goal of boosting an economy and investing in NHS would have been accomplished.

Source :
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/the_sunday_times_february_3_2019_rogoff.pdf
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2021/01/25/after-brexit-the-impacts-on-the-uk-and-eu-economies-by-2030/
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/economic-impact-of-brexit/

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Leaving the European Union affected British economy in long-term. Firstly, it decreased the Britain's per-capita income level up to 10% and GDP losses of 1-5%.

It was calculated that the UK economy will be stuck for at least 15 years, 1/3 of it's exports would be tariff-free and 1/4 would come across high trade barriers.

Brexit also had huge impact on firms. As the result, total costs for companies have risen and the prices for sales and exports have reduced.

At the moment, the UK's first priority is to be with the largest trade partner. Britain also wants to make new trade arrangements with the EU as the basis for deals with other countries. The UK can also re-join the European Free Trade Association but that will provide less access to the Single Market.

Joining the European Economic Association and remaining part of the Single Market is probably the best available option now for Britain because it will keep the country closely integrated with the rest of Europe.

There are different opinions about whether Britain will recover its economy level after Brexit. But many factors show that economic policy reforms can provide a faster rate of economic grows, so the UK economy will benefit from leaving the EU at least in long term.

In my opinion, Britain will need many years to recover from Brexit, but finally it will gain its previous power with having an opportunity to  overtake other European countries in this area.

https://voxeu.org/content/brexit-beckons-thinking-ahead-leading-economists

https://voxeu.org/article/rising-brexit-uncertainty-has-reduced-investment-and-employment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit#Immediate_impact_of_the_end_of_the_transition_period

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Rising Brexit uncertainty has reduced investment and employment

Nicholas Bloom, Scarlet Chen, Paul Mizen

The majority of businesses in the UK report that Brexit is a source of uncertainty. This column uses survey responses from around 3,000 businesses to evaluate the level and impact of this uncertainty. It finds that Brexit uncertainty has already reduced growth in investment by 6 percentage points and employment by 1.5 percentage points, and is likely to reduce future UK productivity by half of a percentage point.

Responses from the latest survey of around 3,000 businesses in the UK, using the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel (Bank of England 2018), ¹ give us four key findings about the level and impact of Brexit uncertainty.

Brexit is a major and growing source of uncertainty for firms

In August 2016, in response to the question, 'How much has the result of the EU-referendum impacted the level of uncertainty affecting your business?', more than one-third of CEOs and CFOs cited Brexit as at least one of the top three current sources of uncertainty. At the time, 10% said that Brexit was the most important factor and 25% said it was one of the top two or three sources of uncertainty (Figure 1).

Successive waves of this question have shown that firms continue to place Brexit high on the list of sources of uncertainty. The share of firms responding that Brexit was one of the top drivers of uncertainty rose from 35% in August 2016 to almost 40% in August-October 2017, while the share of companies considering Brexit not important in the same period fell from 27% to 16%. The proportion of firms reporting uncertainty has remained high and has increased further - Brexit uncertainty has not been resolved. By August-October of this year, around the time of the Salzburg summit, around half of firms were reporting Brexit as a top-three source of uncertainty.

Figure 1 Brexit as a source of uncertainty
Source: Authors' calculations based on data from Decision Maker Panel.
Firms expect lower sales and exports and higher costs

Figure 2 shows the effects that companies expect Brexit to have on their sales, exports and costs. Companies place more weight on Brexit reducing sales than on it increasing them. On average, businesses expected Brexit to eventually reduce their sales by around 2.5% (Figure 2). There was also a net negative expected effect on exports, while unit costs, labour costs and financing costs were expected to increase.

Figure 2 Reported impact of Brexit on firms
Source: Authors' calculations based on data from Decision Maker Panel.
Brexit has reduced investment and employment growth

To estimate the impact of Brexit uncertainty, we analysed the change in investment and employment for firms exposed to lower and higher levels of uncertainty. This difference-in-difference approach quantifies the effect that Brexit uncertainty has had on growth of investment and employment by firms. Our results show the uncertainty is associated with around 6 percentage points less investment. This reduction in investment appears to have happened mainly in the first year after the referendum, between July 2016 and June 2017. We also found that that there is 1.5 percentage points lower employment for these firms, with the effect being larger in the second year after Brexit (July 2017 and June 2018) than in the first.

Brexit has lowered UK productivity growth

Firms in the UK economy that export more to the EU, import more materials from the EU, and employ more labour from the EU were most uncertain and expected Brexit to eventually have a more adverse effect on their sales. They are also the firms that have the highest levels of productivity. We see from Figure 3 that more productive firms expect the eventual effect of Brexit on sales to be more negative (compared to the expected effect of less productive firms).

By a batting average effect, if Brexit reduces the sales of high-productivity firms by more than low-productivity firms that is likely to bring down average UK productivity. Our estimates suggest this implies about a 0.5 percentage point reduction in future productivity. Given that the UK economy has had very low productivity growth in the last decade (about 1% in the last few years), this effect is worth around half a year of productivity growth.

Figure 3 Expected eventual impact of Brexit on sales versus productivity
Source: Authors' calculations based on data from Decision Maker Panel.
Conclusions

In this column we estimate that Brexit uncertainty (so far) has reduced in investment by 6 percentage points and employment by 1.5 percentage points, and is likely to reduce future productivity in the UK by half of a percentage point.

Brexit has not happened yet, and when it does, in March 2019, there could be further uncertainty over the transition arrangements and the arrangements that replace the negotiated settlement. This could lead to further employment, investment and productivity losses in the UK if policy is uncertain or increases trade costs.

Equally, there could be a Brexit dividend (a relief factor that conditions are not as bad as feared), and some postponed investment could be implemented if the conditions under which the UK trades with the EU warrant it. For this reason, it is essential to continue to monitor the effects of Brexit uncertainty on businesses. The effects could go either way.
Authors' note: Bloom and Mizen have received £683,636 in the form of an ESRC standard grant for "Measuring the Impact of Brexit on UK Investment, Productivity, Sales and Employment". The funding will support an online survey and research into the impact of Brexit on the UK for three years, 1 Sept 2017 - 31 August 2020. The project is carried out with the collaboration of Bank of England, the Universities of Nottingham (UK) and Stanford (US).
References

Bank of England (2018), " Agents' summary of business conditions 2018 Q3 and results from the Decision Maker Panel", 13 September.

Endnotes

[1] The Bank of England regularly publishes aggregate level results from the Decision Maker Panel survey of 6,500+ businesses alongside its regular summary report of business conditions based on intelligence gathered by the Bank's Agency network. The Decision Maker Panel has been running since July 2016.

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Rising Brexit uncertainty has reduced investment and employment

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The majority of businesses in the UK report that Brexit is a source of uncertainty. This column uses survey responses from around 3,000 businesses to evaluate the level and impact of this uncertainty.