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1) working in groups, you will discuss : (a)what is meant by the tragedy of commons.  and (b) examine the case and its three impacts
2) Your task is to summarize one of the impacts according to your group number. Use (+) to add your notes
4) I dentify your role( Presenter/ notetaker/timekeeper/Participant) next to each name of your group.
5) Each group will select one of the team to present their notes.
4) Wrap up class discussion of the case.
5) Activities for Credits: Finally, add this activity to your class portfolio ( for professionalism)to get credits.

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 GP1.Everyone have access to same resource and its difficult to control how the resource is managed.  To have government regulations.  Monitoring authority.    

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Theory ... What is the tragedy of Commons? How to overcome?

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Theory ... What is the tragedy of Commons? How to overcome?

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What Is the Tragedy of the Commons?

A common resource or "commons" is any resource, such as water or land, that provides users with tangible benefits but which nobody has an exclusive claim. The tragedy of the commons is an economic problem where the individual consumes a resource at the expense of society.

If an individual acts in their best interest, it can result in harmful over-consumption to the detriment of all. This phenomenon may result in under-investment and total depletion of a shared resource.

Key Takeaways

Economic Theory

The tragedy of the commons is an economic theory claiming that individuals tend to exploit shared resources so that demand outweighs supply, and it becomes unavailable for the whole.

In 1968 evolutionary biologist Garrett Hardin published "The Tragedy of the Commons" in the peer-reviewed journal Science, which addressed the growing concern of overpopulation. Hardin used an example of sheep grazing land, taken from the early English economist William Forster Lloyd.

Grazing lands that are held as private property are prudently used by the landholder to preserve the land and the health of the herd. Common grazing lands become over-saturated with livestock because the food the animals consume is shared among all sheepherders. Hardin equated his point to humans who over-consume the commonly accessible scarce resource, making it harder to find.

Supply and Demand

The tragedy of the commons occurs when an economic good is rivalrous in consumption, non-excludable, scarce, and a common-pool resource. Each consumer consumes as much as they can as fast as they can before others deplete the good, and no one has the incentive to reinvest in maintaining or reproducing the good.

Rival good: A rival good is one that only one person can consume and cannot be shared. All consumers are rivals competing for that unit, and each person's consumption subtracts from the total supply of the good.

Non-excludable: A good is non-excludable when individual consumers are unable to prevent others from also consuming it.

Scarce: The good must be scarce since a non-scarce good cannot be rivalrous in consumption.

Common-pool resource: A common-pool resource functions as a hybrid between a public and private good because it is shared and available to everyone but also scarce, with a finite supply.

Preventing the Tragedy of the Commons

Institutional and technological factors play a role in the rivalry and excludability of a good. Societies have developed methods of dividing and enforcing exclusive rights to economic goods and natural resources or punishing those who over-consume common resources.

Regulatory Solutions

Top-down government regulation or direct control of a common-pool resource can reduce over-consumption, and government investment in the conservation and renewal of the resource can help prevent its depletion. Government regulation can limit how many cattle may graze on government lands or issue fish catch quotas.

Assigning private property rights over resources to individuals can convert a common-pool resource into a private good. Technologically it may mean developing a way to identify, measure, and mark units or parcels of the common pool resource into private holdings, such as branding cattle.

William Forster Lloyd argued for this around the time of the English Parliament's Enclosure Acts, which stripped traditional common property arrangements to grazing lands and fields and divided the land into private holdings.

Collective Solutions

Economists led by Nobelist Elinor Ostrom touted customary arrangements among rural villagers and aristocratic lords, including common access to most grazing and farmlands and managing their use and conservation. Practices such as crop rotation, seasonal grazing, and enforceable sanctions against overuse and abuse of the resource meant collective action arrangements readily overcame the tragedy of the commons.

Collective action is used where technical or natural physical challenges prevent the division of a common-pool resource into small private parcels by instead relying on measures to address the good's rivalry in consumption by regulating consumption.

Has the Tragedy of the Commons Led to Extinction of a Resource?

The extinction of the dodo bird is a historical example of the tragedy of the commons. An easy-to-hunt, flightless bird native to only a few small islands, the dodo was a source of meat for sailors traveling the southern Indian Ocean. Due to overhunting, the dodo was driven to extinction less than a century after its discovery by Dutch sailors in 1598.

Where Is the Tragedy of the Commons Evident in Industry?

Before the 1960s, the Grand Banks fishery off the coast of Newfoundland was abundant with codfish because the fishery supported all the cod fishing they could do with existing fishing technology while reproducing itself each year through the natural spawning cycle. However, advancements in fishing technology made it so fisherfolk could catch massive amounts of codfish unsupportable with natural replenishment. With no framework of property rights or institutional common regulation, the entire industry collapsed by 1990.

How Is the Tragedy of the Commons Handled When Different Nations Share Resources?

Within individual countries, governments at the local level can manage shared resources with clear boundaries. At the international level, rules regarding shared resources are difficult to enforce across jurisdictions. When resources cannot be divided, international law regarding shared resources is essentially voluntary, according to the economist Scott Barrett at Columbia University.

The Bottom Line

The tragedy of the commons occurs when individuals overconsume a resource at the expense of society. When a common resource, such as water or land, is rivalrous in consumption, non-excludable, scarce, and a common-pool resource, the tragedy of the commons occurs. A common resource is any resource that provides users with tangible benefits but to which nobody has a claim.

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What Is the Tragedy of the Commons in Economics?

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The tragedy of the commons is an economic problem where the individual consumes a resource at the expense of society.

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Case Study ... Aral Sea Disaster (Video)

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Case Study ... Aral Sea Disaster (Video)

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Watch the video...

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Aral Sea: Man-made environmental disaster - BBC News

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Read about the socio-economic impacts and summarize below]

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Read about the socio-economic impacts and summarize below]

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Throughout its desiccation since the 1960s, what used to constitute the Aral Sea was replaced by arid lands crusted with salt, and at an accelerating rate due to positive feedbacks as we saw. Both the abusive practices at the origin of the desiccation and the consequences of it on the landscape and local populations were obvious during this period, and inaction was therefore intentional. Even more so when a threshold was passed in 1990, with the Sea being split into two distinct parts: the North and South Aral. Only then did the community of countries directly concerned by the fate of the Sea officially react to start remedying the problem on a large scale. Yet the problem remained: the promises of those countries, which even created a joint fund to which they promised to allocate 1%of their GDP each year, were not respected even to the least. Unrealized projects and unfounded promises were repeatedly made since the 1980s by the USSR and the successive governments of the region, without anything ever being done due to being short on cash or the simple inability of governments to cooperate diligently.

The first landmark toward the protection of the sea was made at the local level by a governor and local villagers, who managed to improvise an "artisanal" dam made of sand in the mid 1990s, allowing for the sea level in the Little Aral (Northern Part of the split) to stabilize instead of progressively drain its water in the vast plains of the South Aral. This dam though did not withstand time, and had to be repaired if not rebuilt a few times until it was eventually abandoned at the end of 1990s. In addition to the role it played in preserving what was left in the Little Aral from spilling into the evaporating desert, this dam was a first effort in what was going to become a major project financed by the World Bank. Indeed, the World Bank had been closely following the situation without being a real player up to then, when it finally accepted to finance an 85million dollars project initiated and realized by Kazakhstan, to rebuild dozens of miles of canals and build a proper dam at the southern border of the Northern basin. This more up-to-the-task achievement quickly took shape, as canals were improved starting in 2001 and the dam was finished in the summer of 2005. Estimates were, as found in an article in Science dating from February 2005, that "Within 3 years [after the Kok-Aral Dam is built] , the Small Aral is expected to rise at least 3 meters and cover about 1000 square kilometers of now-dry former seabed, extending its surface by 25%". The facts were that as early as March 2006, water level in the "Little Aral" had risen from 38.4m to 42m, or a rise of more than 3.6m during the 7 months after the Kok-Aral Dam was built! (Conant 2006) Its surface grew by about a third within a year after the dam was built (New Scientist 2006). The consistent improvement in irrigation canals thanks to new technologies replacing the outdated and rotten infrastructures from Soviet times was a key element in restoring a larger flow in the Syr Darya River, with gains in efficiency as well as a bigger proportion of it now being redirected toward the Little Aral. That represented an increase of about 793,000 cubic meters in water, literally replenishing the local fauna and making the lives of human beings around it so much easier. The flow of the Syr Darya itself doubled pretty quickly, rising to around 800cubic meters per second (or 28,000cubic-ft/sec) (Conant 2006). Spillovers from the Northern sea to the Southern one started occurring around the same period, recreating a viable and regulated environment for certain species of fishes that had not entirely disappeared to flourish, and by the same occasion fishing opportunities for the exuberant locals. The newly available water was a formidable real life experiment in which visible changes in biodiversity occurred at a striking rate: as reeds started appearing along the river banks, flees that were long gone and were an essential food to local fishes reappeared too, and quickly re-established the natural food chain. Asian foxes, wild donkeys and other mammals soon showed up in growing numbers, giving a more lively sight to the recently desert landscapes. The project is not at its end yet, and further improvements will soon come as a result of continued attention paid to water inefficiencies and depolluting the region from pesticides and other sources of soil and air degradation.

Here is an abstract of an article from Discover written by Eve Conant which gives a good account of further improvements as perceived by the local population: "The town's chief doctor, Asanbaev, sees other signs of improvement. In the past year, the incidence of anemia among young women has decreased from about 70 to 80 percent to around 50 percent. Like many locals, he thinks better nutrition is the reason. Fish are easier to get now that the sea, once 62 miles away, is just 9 miles distant. "Thanks to the rebuilding of this dam, there are already satellite dishes on our homes, cars in the streets, weddings, a new school," boasts deputy mayor of Aralsk, Gabit Ospanov. Yet he grows quiet when asked about neighboring Uzbekistan, home to the larger portion of the sea, which will reap few of the dam's benefits. "Each government must think of its own people," he seems to recite. "We showed them what to do. Now they can do what they want." "

Aside from that large project which was the culmination of decades of undedicated efforts among nations concerned, some other propositions have arisen in the past years to help further the improvements that have been occurring. One which caught our attention is to attribute to the Aral Sea the status of "World Heritage Site" from the UNESCO, in order to force a partial restoration of the Southern part of the sea. This partial restoration would be a realistic step toward lessening the human and ecological crisis from which the Aral region has suffered. It would also bring about more sustained international help as well as a push for cooperation between ethnics and local governments to deal with the causes of poor air quality and its consequences on populations (Glantz 2007).

On a less optimistic note, though, the only large scale actions and results up to date were the product of focused policies in which Kazakhstan acted by itself, sometimes with the help of the World Bank. Although countries like Uzbekistan did not have their say and yet approved of the project, they did not contribute to it or showed any sign of upcoming contribution. Kazakhstan saw the share of its Agricultural sector shrink in its now "petrol-enriched" economy from 27% in 1991 to only 5.6% in 2006, while the share in Uzbekistan went from 37% to 26% during the same period (Gapminder 2008). These figures show how Kazakhstan has gained some relative freedom in redistributing the water from the Syr Darya, while Uzbekistan for which cotton growing still represents more than a quarter of the economy has remained more conservative in these matters and does not intend to apply the same quantity of effort in bringing back the South Sea to life as Kazakhstan did with the North Sea. It must be admitted that the South Aral, or Arals since the Southern part is itself separated into two bodies of water, West and East, cannot be rejuvenated to its 1960 level. Hopes must be put on a partial restoration, and the South Sea being primarily on Uzbek territories, the active involvement of Uzbeks is critical to the restoration efforts that would help support the re-birth of the Aral Basin as a whole.

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Throughout its desiccation since the 1960s, what used to constitute the Aral Sea was replaced by arid lands crusted with salt, and at an accelerating rate due to positive feedbacks as we saw. Both the abusive practices at the origin of the desiccation and the consequences of it on the landscape and local populations were obvious during this period, and inaction was therefore intentional.

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Read about the socio-economic impacts and summarize below 

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Read about the socio-economic impacts and summarize below 

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Important Demographic Changes Over the Last Decades

Changes in population are important to understand the Aral Sea crisis for various reasons that we will explore. Between 1950 and 1988, the population of the Aral Sea basin grew dramatically - from 13.8 to 33.2 million people, comprising increases from 8.1 to 19.9 million in Uzbekistan, 1.0 to 2.2 million in Kirghizstan, 2.0 to 5.1 million in Tadzhikistan, 1.5 to 3.5 million in Turkmenistan, and 1.2 to 2.4 million in Kazakhstan (all within the sea-basin limits). In 1990, the population of the Aral Sea basin numbered 34 million. Mean annual rates of population increase in the late 1980s amounted to 2.85% in Uzbekistan, 2.60% in Kirghizstan, 3.2% in Tadzhikistan, 2.65% in Turkmenistan, and 1.06% in southern Kazakhstan (as compared with 0.95% in the USSR as a whole) (Kasperson 1995). Today, after two decades of intense demographic growth, the situation has clearly changed (see Figure #1), for we see that the mean of the population growth rate in the Aral Basin has diminished.

Children and young people occupy a significant place in the age structure, owing to the high natural increase of population. Children and teenagers up to 15 years of age comprise 42.5 per cent of the population in the Aral region (as compared with 26.8 per cent in the former USSR). Therefore, there are fewer people of working age here than in other parts of the world. (Kasperson 1995) Large variations in river water levels and large scale pollution caused the principal environmental changes of the Aral region. Although water consumption through fisheries, industry, power generation and public use of water increased, consumption in these branches taken together never exceeded 3-4 km³ per year (Figure #2), or a relatively low portion of the available water. Clearly, the development of agriculture and, more specifically, the growth of irrigation have been the main engines of environmental change (Kasperson 1995).

Demographics and Water consumption

While population has grown, so has the need for fresh water. Uzbekistan has already elaborated trading schemes of water against natural gas with Kirghistan. According to data from the World Bank, the current distribution of available water per capita is as follows:

Uzbekistan - 2596 m3/ per person/annually

Turkmenistan - 4044 m3/ per person/annually

Tajikistan - 1843 m3/ per person/annually

Kyrgyzstan - 1371 m3/ per person/annually

Kazakhstan - 1943 m3/ per person/annually

Poverty:The Main Cause for Population Growth

The Central Asian republics enjoyed, during Soviet times, state safety nets and subsidies in order to transform the region mainly into an agricultural and oil and gas source for the Soviet Union. This transformation occurred because of the warm climate and of the labor specialization pushed forward in the region. But when those republics gained their independence in 1991, the transition from a centralized economy to a market one brought severe economic hardship for most of the population. It was followed by a liberation of prices and hyperinflation. This brought a sharp surge in poverty, as many state-provided privileges disappeared abruptly too. For instance, in Tajikistan, poverty reached up to 83% of the population at some point. As a result of that poverty, populations, birth and death rates increased dramatically. Life expectancy shrank due to worsening public health services (Amarakoon 2004-2005). Data dramatically changes when it comes to population who live near the Aral Sea. This region has the highest child mortality rate (75 children per 1000 newly born), and in the Karakalpakstan region, which is at the epicenter of the crisis, there is a high level of maternity deaths observed: about 120 women per 10,000 births. Due to increased dust storms, high concentrations of pesticides in the air, and poor quality of water, rates of diseases such as tuberculosis, infections and parasites, typhus, hepatitis and paratyphoid dramatically increased (Mahambetova 1999).

Population seen as Agrarian Labor Force

Governments in the region play a primary role in the large share of the agricultural sector in the economy, which employs an even larger share of the labor force. Aside from Kazakhstan, all Central Asian countries depend largely on the agricultural sector for their exports and thus monetary activities (CIA-WorldFactbook). Due to a lack of modernization of the agricultural sector, particularly looking at the absence of tractors, it employs a large portion of the population in order to produce in huge quantities agrarian products which include cotton (major one), rice and wheat. Governments pressure local farmers to produce a certain level of crops by buying them below the market price. This results in increasing further the reliance of farmers on a large labor force, and prevents them from mechanizing and investing in tractors. The vicious circle in place stimulates a larger family size as it rewards extra hands to work on the field. According to UNESCO-Institute of Water Education, cotton consumption is responsible for 2.6 per cent of the global water use. As a global average, 44 per cent of that water is used for cotton growth and processing not for serving the domestic market but for export. In Uzbekistan, a major cotton producer and water consumer, 41 percent of cultivated land was devoted to cotton, 32 percent to grains, 11 percent to fruits, 4 percent to vegetables, and 12 percent to other crops (Mongabay 2008).

Agriculture

Agriculture in Central Asia is concentrated on cultivation of cotton, cereals, rice, potatoes, vegetables, fruits, grapes, silk cocoons, caraculs and wool. Cattle breeding is also developed. Cotton is the most important natural fiber used in the textile industries worldwide. Today, cotton takes up about 40 percent of textile production, while synthetic fibers take up about 55. During the period 1997-2001, international trade in cotton products constituted 2 percent of the global merchandise trade value. The impacts of cotton production on the environment are easily visible and have different faces. On the one hand there are the effects of water depletion, on the other hand the effects on water quality. The Aral Sea is an example of the effects of water abstractions for irrigation from the Amu Darya and the Syr-Darya, the rivers which feed the Aral Sea, to grow cotton in the desert (Chapagain 2005).

(source:www.foa.com).

Cotton production has three main negative effects:

Consumes large amounts of water in furrow irrigation structure

Requires more labor force due to the lack of financial capacity of farmers

Pollutes water and the environment because of mixing used field water full with chemicals and fertilizers with river or drinkable underground water.

A backdrop to this swiftly deteriorating ecosystem is the struggle to retain the once ample supply of vegetation being grown in the region. The thirstiest of the crops are predictably cotton and rice. The first of which, cotton, still puts Uzbekistan as second cotton exporter in the world. With government quotas for cotton growth unabated, the toll to the environment continues to grow and ravage the region. One third of the foreign currency earned by the country is dependent on the cotton grown in the arid land of the Aral Sea region.

(sourced: http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/newsletter/html_Mir/images ).

With desertification of the area the poorly constructed system for irrigation has become a much more worrisome problem. The salty, sandy and dry soils that support the unlined canals now absorb much of the water intended for crops. Additionally, the water evaporates more rapidly in the drying climate and sandy earth. As little as one fifth of the water is reaching its destination while much of the water left behind en route causes widespread salty flood plains. Buildings and fields have been collapsing for decades and many miles of once resourceful farmland have become salt marsh (Percoda). "A United Nations report in 2001 estimated that 46 percent of Uzbekistan's irrigated lands have been damaged by salinity, up from 38 percent in 1982 and 42 percent in 1995" (Tavernise). Some of the remaining crop yields have diminished by as much as two thirds and on many accounts the yield has decreased by half.

Uzbekistan depends on the unused water of its neighbor, Kyrgyzstan, for fresh water. With little supply of its own the demand for water in Uzbekistan continues to grow. All of the regional soils are saturated with salt. Depending on the crop up to four times the fresh water is needed for any reasonable growth as would be needed under normal growing conditions. To decrease the salinity of the soil the croplands are flushed at least four times. This process also eliminates many of the minerals and salts that are needed for productivity of the land. To compensate for the loss of vital nutrients in the soil the people of the region utilize a severe amount of fertilizers and pesticides. Pesticide use in some areas is over twenty times the national average and the health standards of some crops exceed the allowable limits in nitrate and pesticides by two to four times (Percoda).

Causes at the origin of the decrease in productivity of agricultural plants:

Food and water shortage

Weather conditions, with springs starting later and early autumn frosts, high temperature levels, frequent and long lasting draughts

Population growth causes the need for rational use of water resources to increase, and for diversification of the economy from an agrarian one into one of industry and service (tourism).

The Importance of Ground Water in the Region

Groundwater is water located beneath the ground surface and lies in the spaces and small fractures of the ground. It is important to use ground water in the Aral Sea region because it diversifies the stress on available water resources. Groundwater levels help us determine the distribution of available fresh water resources suitable for domestic water supply. The Aral region and the surroundings of the Amudarya River in particular, contain groundwater which can be used as an alternative water resource while other sources such as the rivers themselves and the Sea are being depleted. Groundwater is fed by water flowing from the riverbed and irrigation canals as well as through irrigated fields, and gets filtered by dripping the different layers of soil. It can be used most easily in the South Aral Sea area, where it is located under 2-3 meters only under the surface. (Salokhiddinov-Abdulhakim 2004)

Scientists were able to observe and analyze seasonal changes in groundwater levels. High levels of underground water occur in April and at the beginning of May. Low levels start from September and keep declining until February-March, where they reach their lowest level. Clearly, these seasonal changes happen because of the intensive watering of irrigated fields. The rise in groundwater happens until September then it drops when farmers stop using as much water for irrigation and temperature starts to fall. The level of underground water then diminishes until February and March, when it becomes warmer and farmers start irrigating their fields again. Based on scientific observations, there is a positive correlation and positive feedback between high precipitation, high flow of water in rivers and a rise in underground water level. Based on scientific observations, there is a positive correlation and positive feedback between high precipitation, high flow of water in rivers and rise in underground water level. Where in "high water years" groundwater table depth rises on irrigated areas, in "low water years" its level in the Aral Sea's irrigated area drops. This helps explain fluctuation too (Salokhiddinov, Abdulhakim).

Underground water is important for eco-systems (vegetation and land subsidence) and cannot be intensively used. Therefore farmers can only use it together with surface water or in places where surface water is not reachable. It can be helpful to use it to balance consumption in the short term when there is a shortage (lower level) in surface water. It does not require substantial investment or hydro equipment in order to obtain water from the ground. Usually it is evenly distributed over territories, therefore does not require such great expenses as compared with hydraulic structures. Farmers can use small pumping motors to obtain water that they can use. Surface water can be contaminated but it is filtered by penetrating through the ground and becomes useful for irrigation and even in some instances as a drinking source for humans. Rising overall salinity can become a problem though, as it entertains a positive correlation with groundwater level and creates a feedback loop as we saw in the part on Salinity. There are plenty of examples in developed countries where governments used groundwater in smart ways. For instance, some developed countries like Germany and the Netherlands take about 50-60% of their total water consumption from underground sources.

What should be done?

diversification of agrarian sector to reduce the amount of water consumed and wasted

use more underground water and less surface water

implement technology such as dripping irrigation system, which is a low-consuming water system for irrigation purposes. Such system can precisely distribute water together with fertilizers through tubes, and has thus become known as 'fertigation'. The irrigation water use efficiency can thus be increased by 35–103% compared with that of furrow (traditional) irrigation (Ibragimov).

Regional Health

With mention to the Soviet Union's impact to the Aral Sea through their desire to grow cotton independently after World War II the first implication of serious repercussions is the scarcity of water. Attention must also be brought to the large quantity of pesticides and fertilizers which drained into the sea with the cotton boom which now, bound to the profuse expanse of salt, ravage the landscape and those who inhabit it. As the water supply to the Aral Sea decreased, the demand for cotton increased, and the Soviet Union responded by pouring more pesticides and fertilizers onto the land. Land in most of the surrounding areas, no matter what the crop, was saturated with dangerous levels of the chemicals needed to grow the Soviet Union's cotton. Runoff into the Aral Sea was far more than could be tolerated by a body of water with little supply of fresh water. Not only did this eliminate much chance for fish in the sea to survive, it also left polluted salt on the expanding banks.

Yet, chemicals used in agriculture are not the only problem for those who are within reach of the Aral Sea's demise."When the waters vanished around Vozrozhdeniya Island, a Soviet germ-warfare facility for open-air testing of anthrax, plague, and smallpox in the southern Aral Sea, U.S. officials in 2000 became so worried that they sent funds and experts to clean up buried stockpiles of the remaining lethal bacteria" (Conant 2006). With drier conditions, the toxic salt rose in dust storms to further increase levels of pesticides and fertilizers in the dwindling food supply. In addition the polluted salt entered the lives of those nearby via the air. "In 2002 the U.N. estimated that winds carried 200,000 tons of salt and toxic sand every day throughout the Aral Sea region and thousands of miles beyond, sometimes reaching as far as Russia's Arctic north—a problem that still continues"(Conant 2006). 'Everything is polluted with herbicides, metals, and salt,' says the Aralsk regional hospital's head doctor, Arginbau Asanbaev.

Experts believe the ecological disaster has displaced more than 100,000 people and affected the health of more than 5 million people throughout the region" (Conant 2006). There has been a dramatic spike in anemia, brucellosis, bronchial asthma, typhoid—at approximately eight times the national average, and in tuberculosis. Today, the infant mortality rate is the highest in the country and acute respiratory diseases account for nearly half of all child deaths in the area (Conant 2006). Such illnesses as ischemic heart disease, respiratory, kidney illnesses and illnesses of the nervous system will keep increasing. Rising temperatures add to the worry, since the hotter weather does get, the more infectious diseases will appear due to worsening water quality and its deficiency in desert, or high salt level in some areas.

Impacts to Biodiversity

Prior to 1960 the Aral Sea's biodiversity was considered low. It supported no more than 24 species of fish, over 200 species of free-living macroinvertibrates, and 180 land animal species. With the lowering of water and the rise of salinity and toxicity none of the fish species survived. Less than 30 macroinvertibrate species survived and of the land animals that were reliant of the Aral Sea a few dozen remain. There are additional factors that have affected the diminishing native species of the Aral Sea region. With the receding shores once water locked breeding grounds of many fish species became vulnerable to land preditors. Also, with the decreasing volume of animal life in the region more salient species were introduced in an attempt to preserve the 44,000 tonne of fish per annum that the commercial fisheries of the region had procured prior to the 1960's. The newly introduced fish proved brutal competitors for the already vulnerable native species.

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Changes in population are important to understand the Aral Sea crisis for various reasons that we will explore. Between 1950 and 1988, the population of the Aral Sea basin grew dramatically - from 13.8 to 33.2 million people, comprising increases from 8.1 to 19.9 million in Uzbekistan, 1.0 to 2.2 million in Kirghizstan, 2.0 to 5.1 million in Tadzhikistan, 1.5 to 3.5 million in Turkmenistan, and 1.2 to 2.4 million in Kazakhstan (all within the sea-basin limits).

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1. Increase salt content in the water.  Climate change, decrease in water level.  Increase evaporation.  Increase in temperature.  increase in dust storm.

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Water Levels

The primary effect of the Aral Sea desiccation has been the significant loss of water in the sea. The water level has dropped approximately 23 meters since the onset of its primary sources of water being diverted (Zavialov 2005). Although the water level has fluctuated up to a few meters in the past due to natural variability in the water flow from the rivers, by 1970, the water loss exceeded the limit of natural water level variation that has occurred in the past.

The water budget is determined by several components: Inflow from the river, evaporation, precipitation rates, and groundwater inflow. Net evaporation is defined as the difference between evaporation and precipitation at the surface (Micklin 2007). The river inflow has been rapidly decreasing since 1960. Net evaporation has also decreased, but at a slower rate while the groundwater inflow has remained approximately the same. As a result, there was a net deficit of water to the sea. The figure below shows the components of water balance that resulted in the net deficit of incoming water flow (Micklin 2007).

In the first desiccation period, water level dropped by about 21 cm/year. In the next decade, water level decreased by 57 cm/year, and afterwards the drop in water level started accelerating faster. The acceleration of the rate of water loss from the Aral Sea can be explained by the positive feedback between evaporation and Sea Surface Temperature. As the lake loses water, it becomes shallower. The incoming solar radiation for a given square area now has to heat up a smaller volume of water, thus the water temperature at the surface increases faster. This in turn lowers the specific humidity at the surface, which further increases the rate of evaporation, thus eating a positive feedback loop.

Another factor that accelerated the evaporation is that the salinization of the lake has lead to vertical stratification. Stratification is characterized by a rapid change in water temperature and salinity level at a given horizontal or vertical region. Under this condition, the surface of the lake has a much lower salt concentration than the bottom of the lake, and thus heats up faster than if the salt concentration was distributed evenly.

After 1990 the rate of water loss has been slowly decreasing. There are negative feedback systems that could have slowed down the loss of water in the region. First, is that as the sea surface area decreases, so does evaporation, which slows down the desiccation process. Another negative feedback is due to increased salinity - as salinity increases, the evaporation also decreases, which partially offsets the positive feedback of water loss. Overall, the presence of both positive and negative feedback systems influences the rate of water loss in the area.

Correlation of Salinity with Water Level

The desiccation of the Aral Sea was also characterized by a sharp increase in the salinity of sea water. The salinity of water is determined by the mass of salts dissolved in the water and the volume of water. As the sea level dropped because of water loss, the inflow of salts to the sea exceeded the salt discharge, and as a result, salinity levels of the sea rose. In the first decade, the salinity increased by 14%, which exceeded the threshold for many commercial fish (Glantz 1999). As a result commercial fishing catches fell from 43,430 tons in 1960 to zero in 1980 (Bosch, 44). From 1960 to 2004, surface salinity increased from 10ppt in 1960 to 92ppt in 2004 (Zavialov 2005). The steep rise in salinity is one of the curses that hit the Aral Sea region when the Sea started shrinking, and is, with the visible water loss, the element which alters landscape the most. As the sea separated into different parts, the difference in salinity between the eastern basin and the western basin also started growing, with higher salinization in the eastern (smaller) basin (Zavialov 2005). Scientists were able to observe two types of correlations between water and salt which increase the salinity of water as a result.

Negative Correlation: This obvious correlation explains how the diminishing level of water creates more salinity, as a given amount of salt gets diluted into a smaller volume. The diminishing level of the Aral Sea has therefore caused the steep rise in salinity (V.M.Lelevkin). Considering this fact, and based on changes over the last 40 years, we can predict that melting glaciers, growth population, and an increasing trend of water usage will lead to less water flowing into the Aral and thus to an increase in salinity.

Positive Correlation: It happens when both underground water and salinity rise at the same time. When agriculture uses furrow irrigation, soil receives an excessive amount of water from rivers and canals. Water then gets filtered by depositing the salt in the soil. Excess water accumulated in groundwater that remains after filtration raises the water table (top layer of underground water). Risen groundwater dilutes and moves upward the salt resting in the soil. Water moves upward and salt concentration increases in the surface layers of the soil. The water then evaporates during day time, leaving the salt behind as it becomes like a layer of snow on the surface of the ground. Similar effects have been observed in Australia as well (Australian Academy of Science).

SST Changes

The desiccation of the Aral Sea has been accompanied by the change in the Sea Surface Temperature. We see that the summer SSTs have been increasing, while winter SSTs have been decreasing (Zavialov 2005). This is expected because as the sea looses volume, it's heat capacity is reduced, therefore it can warm up and cool off faster than before. The day to night variations in SSTs, which are responsible for the sea breezes, have also increased. In a sense, Aral sea has started to exhibit a monsoon climate, which is characterized by seasonal climate change due to warming & cooling of the sea. The desiccation period was also characterized by less ice covering of the sea (Zavialov 2005). This can be explained by the fact that increased salt concentration lowers the freezing point of water; therefore the temperature would now need to be lower for the water to turn into ice.

Desertification

The Aral Sea region experienced significant desertification during the desiccation period. The desertification is characterized by degradation of the land and natural resources to the point that they can no longer be used. Several factors influence the desertification, including the decline in the groundwater level. By cutting off water supply to a region, the hydrological balance of the area becomes offset as more water leaves the region than is coming into the region. Frequent low-water periods contributed to the shortfall of needed resources for vegetation. The decline in the groundwater level in the Amudarya and Syrdarya deltas contributed to the piling up of salt at the surface.This increase in salt content was later accompanied by a change in vegetative cover because the plants began to die away as a result of the increased salinity of the sea. As a result, vegetation in the region was reduced by at least 40%. A side effect of the decrease in the protective vegetation cover was intensified winds, which led to more dust storms in the area. Six million hectares of agricultural land were destroyed as a result of salinization and desertification (Bosch 2007).

Salinization of Soil

A sharp increase in salinization of lands is one of the most negative consequences of Aral Sea crisis. Groundwater level decline also caused salt accumulation in the subsoils. This led to increase in salt deposition in the soil profiles and reeds were replaced by grass saltworts as a result, which prevented anything from growing there. Salinization of soils accelerated the desertification process as it accompanied the sharp decline in groundwater level and the drying of subsoils. This eventually lead to soil erosion, one of the primary reasons for extensive fertilizer use. In turn, these abusive fertilizing practices further deteriorated soils and created pollution that went both into the Aral Sea through groundwater circulation and into the air through dust storms.

Dust Storms

The desiccation of the Aral Sea greatly increased the number of dust and salt storms in the area. Satellite images have revealed that there are up to ten major dust storms occurring annually in the region, most of them occurring between the months of April and July (Glantz 1999). While before, the pressure from the water surface dampened the strength of the northerly and north-easterly winds, the loss of the sea meant that it's protective action from the wind was significantly reduced. The receding sea left behind large amount of salt, and groundwater evaporation further increased the amount of salt from the exposed sea bed. The strong north-easterly winds now pick up the sand, salt, and dust, creating strong dust storms. The salt content in the dust made up about 30–40% of the volume in the summer, and was as high as 90% in the winter (Hydrometeorological Center of Uzbekistan). The storms are often between 150 and 300 km wide. The dust was distributed in areas far beyond the region - the dust from the Aral Sea region was found as far as 500km away from the original source (Micklin 2007). Some of the salt reached the intensively irrigated and cultivated soils, which even ruined the soil far away from the Aral Sea region. It was estimated that the average amount of salt removed from the entire dried seabed was about 43 million metric tons between 1960 and 1984 (Glantz 1999).

(source:eol.jsc.nasa.gov)

Climate Change

The Aral sea desiccation period was accompanied by climate change. Before the desiccation period, the Aral Sea regulated the climate in the region by softening strong Siberian winds in the winter, and cooling off the area in the summer. The exact temperature increase resulting from the Aral Crisis is difficult to measure because the entire Central Asia region has seen an increase in air temperature, so the effects due to the Aral Sea were not isolated. Nevertheless, two studies based on observations made around the original perimeter of the Sea of the variations in air flows and temperatures have permitted to differentiate how much of the changes we see can be attributed to the larger scale trends and how much to the desiccation of the Sea per se. The two studies in question (Small and Molosnova) were realized with different methods, and arrive to similar conclusions: that the shrinking of the sea directly accounts for 50% to 66% –this proportion varies with pressure and seasons and remains high– of the warming trend.(Khan, Vilfand and Zavialov) In the period from 1960 to 2000, the average monthly air temperature has increased by 2°C to 6°C in the summer above and around the Sea(Zavialov 2005). Correspondingly, the air temperature has also decreased during the winter. The magnitude of the change was greatest southwest of the Aral Sea, where the north-easterly winds blow, as those winds got stronger. The result was shorter and hotter summers, longer and colder winters, and a decrease in precipitations. Concerning future temperature changes, estimates predict an increase ranging from 1.75 to 2.25°C on average in the region by 2050, rising more in the summer (2 to 2.75°C) than in the winter (1.5 to 2°C). In terms of yearly precipitations, they should increase by 5 to 20% in average by 2050, though again differentiated between summer and winter time. In summer they would increase by 5 to 10% in the north and decrease by up to 5% in the south, while during winter they would increase in both north and south of the Aral by respectively 5 to 10% and 20 to 25%. ( Ragab- Prudhomme 2002) The consequences of these changes pose a threat to populations who live in the area and human activities, as we are going to see.

As population grows, the number of cars and all sorts of factories will increase. The local carbon dioxide concentration will increase, which will increase air temperature further. Some people may argue that warmer temperatures are good for planting and agriculture. They may argue that farmers can produce cotton or vegetation all year round, but where to find enough water for the necessary irrigation? There are not enough water resources even at the present time.

Dry air that accompanies high temperature, higher carbon dioxide concentration and water deficiency will all lead to crop losses of agricultural plants. High temperature will additionally reduce the amount of grass on the plain territories which in turn will lead to a decrease in natural fauna and cattle breeding (Lelevkin).

Air temperature will further increase due to geographical location of regions and the global warming effect. Warming temperatures will further evaporate water and farmers will have to use more water to grow anything compared to previous decades. This will speed up even more water usage, without counting the population growth factor. The water value in the region will therefore continue to increase, and hopefully a change in practices will eventually occur.

Melting Glaciers

It would seem unlikely that an inland sea in Uzbekistan could affect something so vast as earth's climate. Yet the truth is that the shrinking sea and salty dust storms have already changed the climate in the region to the point of an unlikely return to the stability once present in the area. With the shrinking sea there is not enough surface area to disrupt frigid north winds. Nor does the sea contribute the moisture it once did to the snowfall in mountains of neighboring and more distant regions. In addition to the temperature steadily increasing the dust and salt storms are coating the mountain glaciers nearby and causing a decrease in the overall volume of ice. The degree of melting is over twelve times the rate of the pre-cotton growing era and as there is less moisture in the air to replace the dissipating snow the glaciers continues to diminish. As the glaciers continue to melt the weather will become less likely to experience the sort of seasonal stability it once did.

We have just looked at the intricate behaviors of climate systems in the Aral region, including their interactions and the chain reactions that we call positive feedbacks. Not only did they reshape the landscape and natural balance of the region, they also affected dramatically the populations that live or used to live in this area. Public health, access to drinkable water, migrations due to changing landscape and consequences of vanishing wildlife are all matters that turn out to rely on stable climatic and hydrologic conditions. Appalling observations that followed the climatic changes of the past decades have increased the toll of the irresponsible decisions that were taken by the Soviet Union in the 1960s and of the inactions that followed. Endemic levels of anemia, respiratory diseases and other kidney troubles were reached around the 1980s among the neighbor populations of the Aral region, without anything preventing such diseases from spreading since changes in local climate were at their origin. We will now explore the range of consequences on the human plan that these changes truly had.

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The primary effect of the Aral Sea desiccation has been the significant loss of water in the sea. The water level has dropped approximately 23 meters since the onset of its primary sources of water being diverted (Zavialov 2005).

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An entry example:                         salinity ( group 1)

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An entry example:                         salinity ( group 1)

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The diminishing level of the Aral Sea has therefore caused the steep rise in salinity

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Tragedy of commons
it is a dilemma arising from the situation in multiple individuals focusing on their own self-interest not on anyone's long term interest
it is not just environmental issues. it is also ecnomical issues

Case:
overfishing
-->Overfishing of the Pacific bluefin tuna
coffee consumption
-->overconsumption has led to habitat loss that has endangered 60% of plant species
Traffic congestion
-->causing air pollution
depletion of groundwater

Three factors:
1. The number of users wanting to consume the common
2. The consumptive nature
3. The relative robustness of the common

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Harsher dust storms in the general area due to the disappearance of the lakes

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Fisheries along the Aral Sea were negatively impacted when the size reduced by 90%. The increase of salinity and toxicity caused many of the fish species to die off. Once the Kokaral Dam was created, It helped sustain a small portion of the northern part of the sea for local fisheries to start up again.

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The tragedy of the commons refers to the fact that every individual can and will consume resources and leave their footprint behind. While some consumption of resources might be unavoidable, but we do so more often in our own self interest without care for other individuals or animals we might be sharing these resources with.

Aral Sea Case Study
Environmental Impact
1. significant loss of water in the sea by 23meters
2. Salinity of the water increased because of the decrease in water thus causing imbalance
3. The surrounding area experienced heavy desertification because of lower water levels, decrease in ground water, frequent dust storms, and increased salinity in water and soil.

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Wildlife diverted away from area creating a positive feedback loop

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The Aral Sea is only about a tenth of its original size. This caused the salt and mineral content of the lake to increase dramatically due to its higher concentration in the water making the water source unusable as fresh drinking water to the local population.

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Depletion of water supply downstream deprives municipalities of necessities of life, uprooting or starving entire communities.

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Changes in the Sea Surface Temperatures changed the climate of the area to more monsoon-like.

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Due to a change in the population age distribution, less working age people are living around the Aral sea which further impacts industries such as fishing

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One proposed solution is to attribute to the Aral Sea the status of “World Heritage Site” from the UNESCO, in order to force a partial restoration of the Southern part of the sea. This would help bring more sustainable help and push cooperation between different groups and governments.

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Ensure as much as possible the acts of self interest to do negatively impact the depletion of the environment and its resources.

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Affected seasonal stability by increasing the rate of melting glaciers in neighboring and distant areas due to a lower moisture content in the air.

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decrease in protective vegetation due to plants dying and causing dust storms

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The shrinkage of the Aral Sea has led to a "desertification" of the surrounding area and has completely changed the geography of the area. Dust storms are now more common in the area and there are now extreme temperature differences in the summer and winter (extreme heat and cold).

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Population increase due to more need of agricultural labourers creates a negative cycle in which poverty, subpar agricultural methods and overconsumption of non-renewable resources (such as fresh water) create a serious socio-economical impact on the region.

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Due to increased dust storms, pesticides in the air, and poor water quality; diseases and other sicknesses started affecting more of the population (tuberculosis, parasites etc.)

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Large increase in population caused an increase in demand for fresh water. The increase in population led to an increase in water use in several industries such as fisheries, power generation, and agriculture. Although water consumption increased in all of these industries, agriculture and the growth of irrigation were the main problems of the crisis. With the depletion of the Aral sea, water became less accessible to the growing population. This will obviously have major health impacts from  lack of clean drinking water and sanitation options. This then leads to economic impacts because of the burden it will place on healthcare infrastructure as well as decreased employment rates from illness.

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Nation-wide efforts result in a sustained international help along with intercommunication among local governments to deal with environmental issues.

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components fir the water budget:
1-Inflow from the river
2-Evaporation: difference between evaporation and precipitation at the surface
3-Precipitation rates
4-Groundwater inflow
Factors Accelerate the evaporation:
1- The salinization of the lake has lead to vertical stratification
2-As the lake loses water, it becomes shallower. The incoming solar radiation for a given square area now has to heat up a smaller volume of water, thus the water temperature at the surface increases faster

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Trees and other plant life that can tolerate desert like conditions could be planted and maintained at the Aral Sea and nearby surroundings to help lower the severity and amount of dust storms that occur in the region.

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Somewhat bitter sweet outcome for Uzbekistan was the oil and gas found in the dry bed of the lake, was able to make Uzbekistan Asias second largest oil producer. However the Drying of the lake virtually destroyed the local economy that relied on the water source (I.e. Fisheries).

- Water levels decreased, while population increased.
- Fishing area decreased.
- Fishing exports decreased
- Rice and cotton production increased (Consumes lots of water and pollutes water)

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1. Diversifying the agrarian sector, in order to use less water.

2. Implementing advance irrigation systems (such as the dripping irrigation system) which increases water efficiency up to 103%.

3. Use of underground water rather than surface water.

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decreasing water has increased the salinity which affects growth in the farmland and agriculture

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decreasing water has increased the salinity which affects growth in the farmland and agriculture

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While the sea cannot be brought back to the levels seen in 1960 it is hoped that efforts will be placed to rejuvenating what is left of the two seas. One of the main problems with this plan is that the sea is situated by two country's that do not share the same interest in reviving these two seas.

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The Tragedy of Commons is an economics theory which states that a group or individual overconsumes a resource, knowingly or unknowingly, affecting the rest of the population and/or environment.

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Due to increased dust storms, droughts, increased soil salinity, and poor rainfall caused an area with a lot of farmland and flora to perish. The people living there were unfortunately displaced and had to move due to the now unusable soil for farming.

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While human population has been increased with consumption of water to support agriculture and other industry, supply of water kept decreased it finally caused the poverty

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Groups with access to the same essential resource, utilize it solely in their interests disregarding the affect on the other groups access to the resource resulting in overconsumption and therefore a loss of the resource.

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Definition of The Tragedy of Commons
Individuals actions are based on their own self-interest, this causes the depletion of a shared resource negatively effecting everyone

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As we become more knowledgeable about the environment, we are a lot more careful altering the environment and try to scientifically understand what would happen to the the surround environment, animals, etc, if any changes are made. In this case, this is now an international issue that needs a lot more resources to solve.

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Thanks All groups. Please review the case study resources and add to your study materials.
Looking forward to see more engagements and fruitful disucussions in our future actiivties.

SE

Note that participants only from each group are considered for marking.