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The international military presence in Afghanistan has shrunk dramatically, and even with a slower pace of troop withdrawal, the country's security situation has already worsened. Iraq's chaos provides a chilling precedent. After fifteen years of involvement in Afghanistan, the United States has a strong interest in a stable future for the fragile democracy. Whether or not it further alters its planned troop withdrawal, the United States should encourage Indian efforts to assist Afghanistan in areas of Indian expertise: democracy, economics, and civilian security. India has been an important economic assistance partner for Afghanistan, and can help in other fields to prevent destabilization. Although Pakistan may object, Washington should make it clear to Islamabad that Indian support for Afghanistan's stability-especially without "boots on the ground"-poses no threat to Pakistani interests and should not be disrupted.

A Wary Eye to India's Northwest

International combat operations in Afghanistan ended in December 2014. From a 2012 peak of 140,000 troops, the international presence now numbers around 12,000 to support and advise Afghan forces. By the end of 2016 that presence will draw down to several hundred U.S. soldiers staying mainly to protect U.S. facilities. President Obama has decided to slow the pace of troop withdrawal this year, but this change does not restore higher troop levels. Nor will there be a return to anything close to half their peak strength. Afghan forces now have responsibility for security.

While a resurgent Taliban has increased attacks within Afghanistan in 2015, in a new development, terrorists from several splinter groups have pledged loyalty to the self-declared Islamic State. The UN special representative in Afghanistan expressed concern to the UN Security Council that the Islamic State has the potential to unite disparate groups under one radical banner. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda, which still has a support base in Afghanistan, has proclaimed a new subsidiary targeting South Asia; and the Pakistan-based Haqqani network and Lashkar-e-Taiba, focused on Indian and American targets, remain active in Afghanistan and beyond. A smaller international security presence, emboldened terrorist networks, and a more active Taliban combine to worsen the security environment. At the same time, China's concerns about terrorism in Xinjiang have spurred Beijing to host reconciliation talks involving the Taliban.

India's government watches these developments warily. Viewed from New Delhi, a descent into disorder in Afghanistan recalls the chronic threats India faced in the late 1990s. India fears a return to the days when terrorists used Afghanistan as a base to plot against Indian targets. Preventing that outcome is a top Indian priority-one the United States shares.

India's Capabilities

Seen as a friend and honest broker by most Afghans, India is the fifth-largest bilateral donor to Afghanistan with over $2 billion in pledged support. Assistance has focused on infrastructure, engineering, training, and humanitarian needs. India constructed the Afghan parliament building, part of the interprovince Ring Road, electrical lines, and the Salma Dam, among others. India has also trained Afghan civil servants in Indian academies. The Confederation of Indian Industry has trained more than one thousand Afghans in carpentry, plumbing, and welding. The Self-Employed Women's Association of India-a women's trade union-has educated more than three thousand Afghan women in microenterprise.

India's $2 trillion economy already accounts for 27 percent of Afghan exports-the second-largest export market-and offers enormous opportunity once Afghanistan becomes better connected to India through full implementation of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement. The Indian private sector plays a critical role in expanding commercial ties. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry manages the regional chambers of commerce consultation that was established as a confidence-building measure under the Istanbul Process, a platform for regional dialogue. In 2011, an Indian consortium won the tender for the Hajigak iron ore mine in Bamiyan province.

India was the first country to sign a security pact with Afghanistan, the 2011 Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA), committing India to further security training and potential equipment assistance. India has carried out limited training of Afghan forces, always on Indian soil. Former President Hamid Karzai requested arms from India, but after lengthy delays from New Delhi, President Ashraf Ghani dropped the request. A desire not to exacerbate tensions with Islamabad likely played a role.

Diplomatic coordination on Afghanistan has become more regionally centered, involving India much more deeply. The International Contact Group on Afghanistan now includes more than fifty countries and regional organizations, and India hosted the January 2014 ministerial. Creation of the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process in 2011 embedded India in a new diplomatic calendar focused on Afghanistan. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, concerned about Afghanistan's stability, has begun the process of accession for India and Pakistan. They, along with Afghanistan, participate in the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia and the Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan.

India can do more, but New Delhi's concerns about poking a Pakistani hornets' nest have limited the security partnership. Pakistan views Indian influence in Afghanistan as inimical to its interests and sees itself as the legitimate regional influence in Afghanistan, even though this view undermines sovereign Afghan initiatives with India. Attacks on the Indian embassy in Kabul in 2008 and 2009 and on the consulate in Herat in 2014 were carried out by the Taliban, Haqqani network, and Lashkar-e-Taiba-the latter two Pakistan-based terrorist groups have links to Pakistani security agencies. Indian officials want to minimize the odds of terrorist attacks on their territory-hence India's limited security role despite the SPA, and New Delhi's focus on conducting security training for Afghans on Indian soil. In order to avoid a Pakistani backlash, India has not sent forces to Afghanistan, except to protect its diplomatic facilities and construction teams.

At the same time, Indian officials strongly resist the idea that Pakistan should have veto power over its regional role. That sentiment has been magnified as China becomes more active in Afghanistan; India does not want China to displace India's influence in its own region. Moreover, the Modi government has taken a harder line with Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has crafted a regional doctrine prioritizing ties with all the South Asian Area of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) neighbors. He envisions pulling the region up as India rises. But he also expects Pakistan to crack down on terrorism emanating from its territory-a stance Washington supports-but Islamabad seems unable or unwilling to implement.

The United States endorses India's development and economic role in Afghanistan and heralded the India-Afghanistan SPA, but has said little about Indian security assistance. Support across civilian security areas necessary for rule of law and shoring up Afghan forces could be an Indian strength. Islamabad may object. The United States should discuss with Pakistani officials the benefits of a larger Indian role, including in civilian security areas, and be upfront about how greater stability in Afghanistan will benefit Pakistan. Budget support and training in unobjectionable areas like literacy and medicine, particularly with no boots on the ground, has not and will not pose any risk to Pakistan.

Reasonable proposals for Indian collaboration in Afghanistan involving no Indian troops on the ground should not be subject to a Pakistani veto. To alleviate Pakistani anxieties, the United States should encourage New Delhi and Kabul to be transparent with Islamabad on their joint efforts. With Pakistan and India now embedded together in regional diplomatic mechanisms, added disincentives exist against Pakistani attempts to deny Indian support to Afghanistan when it would clearly benefit the region through greater stability. The most recent example of this changed dynamic took place at the November 2014 SAARC summit. A regional electricity agreement-supported by all SAARC countries except Pakistan-ultimately secured unanimity after the SAARC countries counseled Pakistan to agree for the betterment of the region.

Stabilizing Afghanistan During the Transition

New Delhi's interests in a unified, stable, and independent Afghanistan converge with Washington's. The Obama administration should substantially escalate consultation with India and seek greater Indian involvement in areas of its special capacity-democracy, economics, and civilian security-by undertaking the following steps:

Preserve Kabul's delicate political equilibrium. India and the United States should draw on their experiences with democracy to advise the unity government in Kabul as it works with a power-sharing structure unanticipated in the constitution. Given his involvement, Secretary of State John Kerry should coordinate with India's foreign minister, especially on the likely challenges of amending the Afghan constitution to reflect the country's new governing structure.

Advance regional economic integration. Through its dynamic private sector and its development support, India's assistance to Afghanistan has been fully compatible with the U.S. New Silk Road initiative. New Delhi has become a leader in regional economic mechanisms. U.S. officials should prioritize connecting Afghanistan to the Indian market. This effort should include pressing Pakistan to permit transit trade to the Attari road integrated check post on the Indian edge of the India-Pakistan border to fulfill the letter and spirit of the 2011 Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement.

Seek budget support from India for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). It takes around $4 billion annually to support the ANSF. The United States has been the major sponsor over the years and should seek India's help. China has stepped up assistance with a 2014 pledge of $327 million, though not specifically for the ANSF. This topic should be raised by the U.S. ambassador to India at the highest appropriate level and discussed by national security advisors.

Partner with India on counter-improvised explosive device (IED) training. India's Institute of IED Management, a Central Reserve Police Force academy, could be a node for ongoing training for Afghan forces, the police in particular. The Pentagon's Joint Improvised Explosive Devise Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) has been developing international partnerships on counter-IED training, and India's institute provides a perfect opportunity to develop a regional partner-especially as JIEDDO shrinks in size.

Partner with India on ANSF support-function training. Literacy training remains a critical ANSF need. The U.S. special inspector general assessed the NATO-run $200 million literacy program as having only "limited impact." India runs the world's largest adult literacy program. Military emergency medicine is another area of strong Indian talent. Logistics and supply-chain management are also areas that could help the ANSF perform better in their challenging terrain. The United States and India have had great success with joint training for third countries, such as with agriculture extension training for African countries. Shifting training for these support functions from the current Western contractors model to India, which is closer and has greater regional expertise, would offer more bang for the buck.

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Why the United States Should Work With India to Stabilize Afghanistan

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The international military presence in Afghanistan has shrunk dramatically, and even with a slower pace of troop withdrawal, the country's security situation has already worsened. Iraq's chaos provides a chilling precedent. After fifteen years of involvement in Afghanistan, the United States has a strong interest in a stable future for the fragile democracy.

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Why is Afghan history highlighted by warfare?

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Pakistan v. India

Think about the history of India & Pakistan.

How can their conflicts influence Afghanistan?

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Indo-Pakistani wars and conflicts - Wikipedia

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The Kashmir issue has been the main cause, whether direct or indirect, of all major conflicts between the two countries with the exception of the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 where conflict originated due to turmoil in erstwhile East Pakistan (now Bangladesh).

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The Silk Road was an ancient network of trade routes, formally established during the Han Dynasty of China, which linked the regions of the ancient world in commerce between 130 BCE-1453 CE. As the Silk Road was not a single thoroughfare from east to west, the term 'Silk Routes' has become increasingly favored by historians, though 'Silk Road' is the more common and recognized name.

The European explorer Marco Polo (1254-1324 CE) traveled on these routes and described them in depth in his famous work but he is not credited with naming them. Both terms for this network of roads were coined by the German geographer and traveler, Ferdinand von Richthofen, in 1877 CE, who designated them 'Seidenstrasse' (silk road) or 'Seidenstrassen' (silk routes). Polo, and later von Richthofen, make mention of the goods which were transported back and forth on the Silk Road.
From West to East these goods included:

Horses

Saddles and Riding Tack

The grapevine and grapes

Dogs and other animals both exotic and domestic

Animal furs and skins

Honey

Fruits

Glassware

Woolen blankets, rugs, carpets

Textiles (such as curtains)

Camels

Slaves

Weapons and armor

From East to West the goods included:

Silk

Tea

Dyes

Precious Stones

China (plates, bowls, cups, vases)

Porcelain

Spices (such as cinnamon and ginger)

Bronze and gold artifacts

Medicine

Perfumes

Ivory

Rice

Paper

Gunpowder

The network was used regularly from 130 BCE, when the Han officially opened trade with the west, to 1453 CE, when the Ottoman Empire boycotted trade with the west and closed the routes. By this time, Europeans had become used to the goods from the east and, when the Silk Road closed, merchants needed to find new trade routes to meet the demand for these goods.

The closure of the Silk Road initiated the Age of Discovery (1453-1660 CE) which would be defined by European explorers taking to the sea and charting new water routes to replace over-land trade. The Age of Discovery would impact cultures around the world as European ships claimed some lands in the name of their god and country and influenced others by introducing western culture and religion and, at the same time, these other nations influenced European culture. The Silk Road - from its opening to its closure - had so great an impact on the development of world civilization that it is difficult to imagine the modern world without it.

Persian Royal Road

The history of the Silk Road pre-dates the Han Dynasty in practice, however, as the Persian Royal Road, which would come to serve as one of the main arteries of the Silk Road, was established during the Achaemenid Empire (500-330 BCE). The Persian Royal Road ran from Susa, in north Persia (modern day Iran) to the Mediterranean Sea in Asia Minor (modern-day Turkey) and featured postal stations along the route with fresh horses for envoys to quickly deliver messages throughout the empire. Herodotus, writing of the speed and efficiency of the Persian messengers, stated that:

There is nothing in the world that travels faster than these Persian couriers. Neither snow, nor rain, nor heat, nor darkness of night prevents these couriers from completing their designated stages with utmost speed. ( Histories VIII.98)

These lines would, centuries later, form the creed of the United States of America's post office. The Persians maintained the Royal Road carefully and, in time, expanded it through smaller side roads. These paths eventually crossed down into the Indian sub-continent, across Mesopotamia, and over into Egypt.

China & the West

After Alexander the Great conquered the Persians, he established the city of Alexandria Eschate in 339 BCE in the Fergana Valley of Neb (modern Tajikistan). Leaving behind his wounded veterans in the city, Alexander moved on. In time, these Macedonian warriors intermarried with the indigenous populace creating the Greco-Bactrian culture which flourished under the Seleucid Empire following Alexander's death.

Under the Greco-Bactrian king Euthydemus I (260-195 BCE) the Greco-Bactrians had extended their holdings. According to the Greek historian Strabo (63-24 CE) the Greeks "extended their empire as far as the Seres" ( Geography XI.ii.i). `Seres' was the name by which the Greeks and Romans knew China, meaning `the land where silk came from'. It is thought, then, that the first contact between China and the west came around the year 200 BCE.

Emperor Wu was eager to gain new commodities through trade with the west & the Silk Road was opened in 130 BCE.

The Han Dynasty of China (202 BCE - 220 CE) was regularly harassed by the nomadic tribes of the Xiongnu on their northern and western borders. In 138 BCE, Emperor Wu sent his emissary Zhang Qian to the west to negotiate with the Yuezhi people for help in defeating the Xiongnu.

Zhang Qian's expedition led him into contact with many different cultures and civilizations in central Asia and, among them, those whom he designated the `Dayuan', the `Great Ionians', who were the Greco-Bactrians descended from Alexander the Great's army. The Dayuan had mighty horses, Zhang Qian reported back to Wu, and these could be employed effectively against the marauding Xiongnu.

The consequences of Zhang Qian's journey was not only further contact between China and the west but an organized and efficient horse breeding program throughout the land in order to equip a cavalry. The horse had long been known in China and had been used in warfare for cavalry and chariots as early as the Shang Dynasty (1600 - 1046 BCE) but the Chinese admired the western horse for its size and speed. With the western horse of the Dayuan, the Han Dynasty defeated the Xiongnu. This success inspired Emperor Wu to speculate on what else might be gained through trade with the west and the Silk Road was opened in 130 BCE.

Between 171-138 BCE, Mithridates I of Parthia campaigned to expand and consolidate his kingdom in Mesopotamia. The Seleucid King Antiochus VII Sidetes (138-129 BCE) opposed this expansion and, also wishing revenge for the death of his brother, Demetrius, waged war against the Parthian forces of Phrates II, Mithridates successor. With the defeat of Antiochus, Mesopotamia came under Parthian rule and, with it, came control of the Silk Road. The Parthians then became the central intermediaries between China and the west.

Goods Traded via the silk road

While many different kinds of merchandise traveled along the Silk Road, the name comes from the popularity of Chinese silk with the west, especially with Rome. The Silk Road routes stretched from China through India, Asia Minor, up throughout Mesopotamia, to Egypt, the African continent, Greece, Rome, and Britain.

The northern Mesopotamian region (present-day Iran) became China's closest partner in trade, as part of the Parthian Empire, initiating important cultural exchanges. Paper, which had been invented by the Chinese during the Han Dynasty, and gunpowder, also a Chinese invention, had a much greater impact on culture than did silk. The rich spices of the east, also, contributed more than the fashion which grew up from the silk industry. Even so, by the time of the Roman Emperor Augustus (r.27 BCE - 14 CE) trade between China and the west was firmly established and silk was the most sought-after commodity in Egypt, Greece, and, especially, in Rome.

the Roman love of silk

Prior to becoming Emperor Augustus, Octavian Caesar seized on the controversial topic of silk clothing to denounce his adversaries Mark Antony (83-30 BCE) and Cleopatra VII (69-30 BCE) as immoral. As they both favored Chinese silk, which was increasingly becoming associated with licentiousness, Octavian exploited the link to deprecate his enemies. Octavian would triumph over Antony and Cleopatra; he could do nothing, however, to curtail the popularity of silk.

The historian Will Durant writes:

The Romans thought [silk] a vegetable product combed from trees and valued it at its weight in gold. Much of this silk came to the island of Kos, where it was woven into dresses for the ladies of Rome and other cities; in A.D. 91 the relatively poor state of Messenia had to forbid its women to wear transparent silk dresses at religious initiations. (329)

The island of Kos became wealthy & luxurious through their manufacture of silk clothing.

By the time of Seneca the Younger (4 BCE - 65 CE), conservative Romans were more ardent than Augustus in decrying the Chinese silk as immoral dress for women and effeminate attire for men. These criticisms did nothing to stop the silk trade with Rome, however, and the island of Kos became wealthy and luxurious through their manufacture of silk clothing.

As Durant writes, " Italy enjoyed an 'unfavorable' balance of trade - cheerfully [buying] more than she sold" but still exported rich goods to China such as "carpets, jewels, amber, metals, dyes, drugs, and glass" (328-329). Up through the time of the emperor Marcus Aurelius (r.161-180 CE), silk was the most valued commodity in Rome and no amount of conservative criticism seemed to be able to slow the trade or stop the fashion.

Even after Aurelius, silk remained popular, though increasingly expensive, until the fall of the Roman Empire in 476 CE. Rome was survived by its eastern half which came to be known as the Byzantine Empire and which carried on the Roman infatuation with silk. Around 60 CE the west had become aware that silk was not grown on the trees in China but was actually spun by silkworms. The Chinese had very purposefully kept the origin of silk a secret and, once it was out, carefully guarded their silkworms and their process of harvesting the silk.

The Byzantine emperor Justinian (527- 565 CE), tired of paying the exorbitant prices the Chinese demanded for silk, sent two emissaries, disguised as monks, to China to steal silkworms and smuggle them back to the west. The plan was successful and initiated the Byzantine silk industry. When the Byzantine Empire fell to the Turks in 1453 CE, the Ottoman Empire closed the Silk Road and cut all ties with the west.

the Silk Road Legacy

The greatest value of the Silk Road was the exchange of culture. Art, religion, philosophy, technology, language, science, architecture, and every other element of civilization was exchanged along these routes, carried with the commercial goods the merchants traded from country to country. Along this network disease traveled also, as evidenced in the spread of the bubonic plague of 542 CE which is thought to have arrived in Constantinople by way of the Silk Road and which decimated the Byzantine Empire.

The closing of the Silk Road forced merchants to take to the sea to ply their trade, thus initiating the Age of Discovery which led to world-wide interaction and the beginnings of a global community. In its time, the Silk Road served to broaden people's understanding of the world they lived in; its closure would propel Europeans across the ocean to explore, and eventually conquer, the so-called New World of the Americas. In this way, the Silk Road can be said to have established the groundwork for the development of the modern world.

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The Silk Road was an ancient network of trade routes, formally established during the Han Dynasty of China, which linked the regions of the ancient world in commerce between 130 BCE-1453 CE. As the Silk Road was not a single thoroughfare from east to west, the term 'Silk Routes' has become increasingly favored by historians, though 'Silk Road' is the more common and recognized name.

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The Khyber Pass

How might this geographic landform influence history?

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Khyber Pass | mountain pass, Pakistan-Afghanistan

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Khyber Pass: Khyber Pass,, most northerly and important of the passes between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The pass connects Kābul with Peshāwar. The pass has historically been the gateway for invasions of the Indian subcontinent from the northwest. The name Khyber is also applied to the range of arid, broken

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The Taliban in Afghanistan

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The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan member organization, think tank, and publisher.

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Timeline of Afghan (War) History

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The land that is now Afghanistan has a long history of domination by foreign conquerors and strife among internally warring factions.

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Afghanistan's Neighbors

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Ethnicities of Afghanistan

HINT: google the definition of "Balkanization"

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Read more about Churchill's experiences in Afghanistan

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"{where} every man's hand is against the other and all are against the stranger." Winston Churchill

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HINT: how does the location of major cities and terrain of Afghanistan dictate the style of warfare?