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Climate Change is a Super Wicked Problem 

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Climate Change is a Super Wicked Problem 

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The authors describe climate change as belonging to a new category of wicked problems altogether: Super Wicked Problems. According to Levin et al., climate change can be defined as a super wicked problem based on four key features:

1. Significant impacts will occur and time is running out to reduce the magnitude of the impact.

2. Individuals and collective activities are both causing, and trying to solve, climate change. Thus, human-induced climate change exists on multiple scales.

3. There is no central authority in place to address the issue.

4.  Even in the face of overwhelming evidence, the masses continue to ignore the significance of its impacts, or focus only on short term solutions.

Ultimately, the current approach to climate change is a tragedy, as governance structures majorly respond to short-term issues and solutions rather than looking farther into the future.

The authors thus put forward a new framework for super wicked problems that can be summarized with three main points, which are discussed in more detail below.

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1 - To Overcome the Tragedy of Super Wicked Problems, Long-term Interests Must be Prioritized Over Short-term Gains

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1 - To Overcome the Tragedy of Super Wicked Problems, Long-term Interests Must be Prioritized Over Short-term Gains

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A new framework for policy analysis of this class of problems would incorporate the prioritization of long-term interests over short-term gains, which can be accomplished through the application of diagnostic questions (DQ). These DQs are based on super wicked problems themselves, and can be used by policy makers to determine how to approach policy for this unique type of problem (Table 1 below).

DQ1 and DQ2 direct policy makers to use processes that create benefits for
groups when they change their behaviour, whereas DQ3 addresses how the
challenge of no central authority (as described in #3 above) can be overcome through progressive incremental change. The authors also provide guidance as to how policy makers can evaluate these DQs for super wicked problems.

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2 - Policy Development for Super Wicked Problems Requires a New Epistemology and Application of "Applied Forward Reasoning"

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2 - Policy Development for Super Wicked Problems Requires a New Epistemology and Application of "Applied Forward Reasoning"

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When it comes to super wicked problems, like climate change, the authors note that the current knowledge base, i.e. the epistemology of policy development, needs to change altogether. They discuss the concept of "applied forward reasoning" as a means to achieve the necessary transformation, which considers several different alternative future pathways of a problem rather than assuming a linear, static, and predicable world or outcome based on historical precedent.

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3- Policy Development for Super Wicked Problems Must be Based on Path-Dependent Interventions

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3- Policy Development for Super Wicked Problems Must be Based on Path-Dependent Interventions

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With applied forward reasoning, policy makers can examine interventions that might create the desired future pathway for the problem by choosing path-dependent processes. As an example, the authors note that we currently live on a path-dependent reliance on "high-carbon" fossil fuels, but an alternative pathway could be nurtured in which the focus is "low-carbon" based. However, this change is not straight forward. In order to achieve path dependent policy for collective behaviour change, the authors highlight four factors:

Lock-in: Policy must be immediately strong and difficult to amend

Self-reinforcing: Policy must be sustainable and further entrenched with time

Increasing returns: The benefits of an intervention grow over time and expand into different population bases

Positive feedback:  Policy should attract others who were not the target population to join

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A New Framework for Super Wicked Problem Solving Must Rely on Non-linear and Unpredictable Trajectories, Different "Layers" of Policy,  and Coalition of Stakeholders

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A New Framework for Super Wicked Problem Solving Must Rely on Non-linear and Unpredictable Trajectories, Different "Layers" of Policy,  and Coalition of Stakeholders

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To conclude, the author's proposed framework for super wicked problems is strongly tied to the need to expand beyond current policy analysis, which generally compares a range of interventions and possible linear outcomes based on historical precedent. Rather, policy must consider non-linear and unpredictable policy pathways, and foster collection direction along the pathway most desirable for long-term interests. The framework also stresses the need to consider different "layers" of policy and how changes to one policy may impact another. Harnessing the power of different layers and coalitions between stakeholders is necessary to achieve collective change for super wicked problems.

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How does the concept of regenerative sustainability fit into Levin et al's proposed framework for solving super wicked problems?