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Math doctorates awarded (US)
correlates with
Uranium stored at US nuclear power plants

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Math doctorates awarded (US)
Degrees awarded (National Science Foundation)

1,122

1,123

1,177

1,083

1,050

1,010

919

993

1,076

1,205

1,325

1,393

1,399

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Math doctorates awarded (US) correlates with Uranium stored at US nuclear power plants

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Math doctorates awarded (US) correlates with Uranium stored at US nuclear power plants Upload this image to imgur Math doctorates awarded (US) Degrees awarded (National Science Foundation) 1,122 1,123 1,177 1,083 1,050 1,010 919 993 1,076 1,205 1,325 1,393 1,399

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Age of Miss America and Murders by hot, steam and vapours and hot objects

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Age of Miss America and Murders by hot, steam and vapours and hot objects

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A pirate shortage caused global warming.

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A pirate shortage caused global warming.

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Nicholas cage movies and nr of ppl that died by falling into a pool

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Nicholas cage movies and nr of ppl that died by falling into a pool

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Quick note: I am updating this project to make it more engaging and more useful in classrooms. If you are a teacher or a student using this in class, I'd appreciate it if you would shoot me a quick note describing how you use it and what might make it more helpful: vigentyler@gmail.com. You can also email me if you're willing to test out the new features to provide feedback before they are released, or if you just want me to let you know when it is done.

The update will be released in 2024. Thanks! -Tyler

Other spurious things

Something totally different: The Mystery of the Bloomfield Bridge - a long-form over-the-top article about the history of one specific bridge in Minnesota. Published August 28, 2023.

Discover a correlation: find new correlations. Note from Tyler: This is not working, but I am in the process of fixing it. Shoot me an email if you'd like an update when I fix it.

View the sources of every statistic in the book.

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Quick note: I am updating this project to make it more engaging and more useful in classrooms. If you are a teacher or a student using this in class, I'd appreciate it if you would shoot me a quick note describing how you use it and what might make it more helpful: vigentyler@gmail.com.

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https://mathcoachblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/correlation-does-not-imply-causation.png

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Suicides by strangulation/suffocation vs. US spending on Sciences

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Suicides by strangulation/suffocation vs. US spending on Sciences

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http://www.tussursilk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Fig-2-science_suicides.jpg

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do a lot of sports -> better shape
https://www.livestrong.com/article/500263-how-does-playing-sports-make-you-more-healthy/

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https://thelogicofscience.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/smokinghigh.jpg

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Few recent scientific studies have received as much media coverage as one published recently in Science, arguing for a causal link between climate warming and violence. The range of media sources covering it is as impressive as the number: not just general news media at all levels, in many parts of the world, and not just science journals, but also those with particular perspectives, among them religious (or, at least Christian) environmental, police-based, medical and business. Why should this particular scientific knowledge claim within shared knowledge make such an impact?

It is no news that the most sensational news is unqualified news. "Lock your doors" begin some of the news studies-and go on to claim that violence will unquestionably increase. Further, of course, all climate news is big news. Yet the very fact that so much attention has been given to the study makes it useful for a little TOK scrutiny. The story provides a fine example of some running ideas in TOK: differences between correlation and causation, methodology of areas of knowledge, types of justification offered for knowledge claims, caution over accepting results, and implications of accepting knowledge claims.
Methodology and Justifications
Even ignoring the actual content of this study, this example of science-in-progress illustrates much about the methods by which new knowledge can be sought:

1. Based on the original research of 60 other studies, this is a strong example of a metastudy.

2. The fact that so many different areas of knowledge were involved in the study points to the importance of the interdisciplinary nature of much contemporary work. In this case the investigation drew from studies in climatology, archaeology, economics, political science, and psychology.

3. The fact that the study draws on many different cultures, across a broad swath of history likewise points to the range of evidence any such study might and perhaps should involve:

"Researchers noted examples including increased domestic violence in India and Australia, assaults and murders in the United States and Tanzania, ethnic violence in Europe and South Asia, land invasions in Brazil, police violence in the Netherlands and civil conflicts throughout the tropics." ( Climate Change and Violence, Huffington Post)

The most fundamental knowledge question, naturally, is whether the study is convincing.

As any TOK teacher will point out, the source is important. Berkeley and Princeton, of course, are reputable universities and Science is considered one of the two most authoritative science journals. Still, reputable sources are not enough.

Equally important is the way in which this new knowledge meshes with current shared knowledge. Most journalists echo the authors in pointing out two ways in which the results "make sense" (using reason as a way of knowing, and a coherence check):

1. Climate change can produce crop failure with major social and economic conflict resulting.

2. Even temporary high temperatures seem to precipitate aggressive behavior.

Also significant is the way the study makes its claims, providing evidence and details.

"We found that a 1 standard deviation shift towards hotter conditions causes the likelihood of personal violence to rise 4 percent and intergroup conflict to rise 14 percent," said another author, UC Berkeley's Marshall Burke, a Ph.D. candidate in agricultural and resource economics.
Caution in Accepting Knowledge Claims
Does the study, therefore, actually provide "knowledge"?

First, the scientists themselves involved in the study (as reported in some media-but certainly not all) voice the kind of caution appropriate to scientists - and rare in pseudoscience or some media:

"But they could not say why this might be the case. More studies would be needed to confirm the results and explain why such a correlation might exist, they said." ( Climate Change Linked to Violent Behaviour)

Second, some journalists quote external authorities sceptical about the study. Dr Halvard Buhaug from Oslo's Peace Research Institute, is quoted for his distrust of reaching such conclusions on the basis of the current study:

"Even if you found that conflict, defined in a particular way, appeared to be associated with climate, if you applied a number of complementary measures - which you should do in order to determine the robustness of the apparent connection - then you would find, in almost all cases, the two were actually unrelated."

Dr Buhaug is deeply sceptical of the latest comprehensive study - which focuses entirely on quantitative analysis that excludes other complex social factors.

Third, some journalists voice their own scepticism about the study, as does commentator Nafeez Ahmed:

"Missing from the analysis is the reality that climate change is always refracted through the complex socio-political, economic and cultural relations of different societies."
Implications of Accepting Knowledge Claims
Used as an example, this study thus highlights several issues any TOK teacher will find surfacing whenever there is a claim to increase the pool of shared knowledge. It also suggests the role of generally applicable critical analysis: evaluate the sources, assess the knowledge claims themselves, and consider counter arguments.

In addition, though, this particular example raises some further issues. After all, as noted at the outset, this particular study is having a major impact. Thus, we might ask of any assertion:

1. What are the practical implications and applications?

2. Can a correlation have practical applications even if it is not proved to be a causation?

3. If a causation is clear but the mechanism of causation is not, can it still justify taking action?

4. If a correlation has not been proven how much should cost-benefit calculations underlie precautionary action?

In this particular case, do the potential benefits of limiting carbon emissions outweigh the potential economic drawbacks?

"The result is alarming," said Burke [a graduate student from Berkeley studying the link between climate change and food security]. "However, if we get our act together and we mitigate future climate change...the effects will be much smaller.
Conclusion
Clearly, this recent study could be used in class as an illustration of numerous knowledge questions under discussion at different points in the TOK course. Bringing in examples drawn from current media in this way emphasizes the constant relevance of TOK to the world around us. This study could also provide material for class presentations, with students zeroing in on specific knowledge questions to investigate. We can hope that our students will increasingly find in comfortable to apply their TOK awareness and skills to topics such as this one.

Nafeez Ahmed, "Will climate change trigger endless war?", Earth Insight blog, August 2, 2013 : http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/02/climate-change-endless-war-violence-conflict

Fiona Harvey, "Climate Change Linked to Violent Behaviour", The Guardian, Aug 2, 2013. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/02/climate-change-violent-behaviour

Mark Kinver, "Climate Shifts 'not to blame' for African civil wars", BBC News, September 6, 2010. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11204686

Robin Wilkey, "Climate Change and Violence Linked, Breakthrough Study Finds", Huffington Post, August 1, 2013) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/01/climate-change-and-violence_n_3692023.html

"Climate Change Conflict: Warmer Temperatures Lead to Increased Violence, Study Says", International Science Times, August 2, 2013. http://www.isciencetimes.com/articles/5782/20130802/climate-change-conflict-warmer-temperatures-increased-violence.htm

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Correlation or causation?: climate change and increased violence - OSC IB Blogs

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Few recent scientific studies have received as much media coverage as one published recently in Science, arguing for a causal link between climate warming and violence.

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if you eat a lot and unhealthy food you (should) gain weight

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Murders in the US vs. Internet Explorer Market Share

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Murders in the US vs. Internet Explorer Market Share

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https://prezi.com/_750lyixeqmb/tok-presentation-correlation-and-causation/

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There's a 99.26 % correlation between cheese consumption per capita and the amount of people who dies by becoming stuck in their bedsheets.

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There's a 99.26 % correlation between cheese consumption per capita and the amount of people who dies by becoming stuck in their bedsheets.

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Number of Pirates in the World vs. Average Temperature

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Number of Pirates in the World vs. Average Temperature

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https://i.stack.imgur.com/wBjSr.png

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Divorce in maine vs margarine consumption

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Divorce in maine vs margarine consumption

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Number of films Nicolas Cage appeared in correlates with Number of people who drowned in swimming pools

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Number of films Nicolas Cage appeared in correlates with Number of people who drowned in swimming pools

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Why do these things correlate? These 20 correlations will blow your mind. (Is this headline sensationalist enough for you to click on it yet?)

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Fresh Lemons Imported in the USA vs. Highway Fatality Rates

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Fresh Lemons Imported in the USA vs. Highway Fatality Rates

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https://i.imgur.com/dxfWK.jpg

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vending machines in school and obesity(unhelathy)

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vending machines in school and obesity(unhelathy)

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https://graphpaperdiaries.com/2016/06/26/6-examples-of-correlationcausation-confusion/

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Is Facebook causing the Greek Debt Crisis?

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Is Facebook causing the Greek Debt Crisis?

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When I first started blogging about correlation and causation (literally my third and fourth post ever), I asserted that there were three possibilities whenever two variables were correlated. Now that I'm older and wiser, I've expanded my list to six:

1. Thing A caused Thing B (causality)

2. Thing B caused Thing A (reversed causality)

3. Thing A causes Thing B which then makes Thing A worse (bidirectional causality)

4. Thing A causes Thing X causes Thing Y which ends up causing Thing B (indirect causality)

5. Some other Thing C is causing both A and B (common cause)

6. It's due to chance (spurious or coincidental)

The obvious conclusion is that years spent blogging about statistics directly correlates to the number of possible ways of confusing correlation and causation you recognize.

Anyway, I've talked about this a lot over the years, and this lesson is pretty fundamental in any statistics class...though options #3 and #4 up there aren't often covered at all. It's easily forgotten, so I wanted to use this post to pull together an interesting example of each type.

1. Smoking cigarettes cause lung cancer (Thing A causes Thing B): This is an example I use in my Intro to Internet Science talk I give to high school students. Despite my continued pleading to be skeptical of various claims, I like to point out that sometimes disbelieving a true claim also has consequences. For years tobacco companies tried to cast doubt on the link between smoking and lung cancer, often using "correlation is not causation!" type propaganda.

2. Weight gain in pregnancy and pre-eclampsia (Thing B causes Thing A): This is an interesting case of reversed causation that I blogged about a few years ago. Back in the 1930s or so, doctors had noticed that women who got pre-eclampsia (a potentially life threatening condition) also had rapid weight gain. They assumed the weight gain was causing the pre-eclampsia, and thus told women to severely restrict their weight gain. Unfortunately it was actually the pre-eclampsia causing the weight gain, and it is pretty likely the weight restrictions did more harm than good.

3. Dating and desperation (Thing A causes Thing B which makes Thing A worse): We've all had that friend. The one who strikes out with everyone they try to date, and then promptly doubles down on their WORST behaviors. This is the guy who stops showering before he takes girls out because "what's the point". Or the girl who gets dumped after bringing up marriage on the third date, so she brings it up on the first date instead. This is known as "bidirectional causality" and is less formally known as "a vicious cycle". In nature this can cause some really amusing graph behavior, as in the case of predators and prey. An increase in prey can cause an increase in predators, but an increase in predators will cause a decrease in prey. Thus, predator and prey populations can be both positively AND negatively correlated, depending on where you are in the cycle.

4. Vending machines in Schools and obesity (Thing A causes Thing X causes Thing Y which then causes Thing B): One obvious cause of obesity is eating extra junk food. One obvious source of extra junk food is vending machines. One obvious place to find vending machines is in many schools. So remove vending machines from schools and reduce obesity, right? No, sadly, not that easy. In a longitudinal study that surprised even the authors, it was found that kids who moved from schools without vending machines to those with vending machines don't gain weight. What's interesting is that you can find a correlation between kids who were overweight and eating food from vending machines, but it turns out the causal relationship is convoluted enough that removing the vending machines doesn't actually fix the original end point.

5. Vitamins and better health (Some other Thing C is causing Thing A and Thing B):This one is similar to #4, but I consider it more applicable when it turns out Thing A and Thing B weren't even really connected at all. Eating a bag of chips out of a vending machine every day CAN cause you to gain weight, even if removing the vending machine doesn't help you lose it again. With many vitamin supplements on the other hand, initial correlations are often completely misleading. Many people who get high levels of certain vitamins (Thing A) are actually just those who pay attention to their health (Thing C), and those people tend to have better health outcomes (Thing B). Not all vitamins should be tarred with the same brush though, this awesome visualization shows where the evidence stands for 100 different supplements.

6. Spurious Correlations (spurious or due to chance): There's a whole website of these, but my favorite is this one:

Causal inference, not for the faint of heart.

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6 Examples of Correlation/Causation Confusion

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When I first started blogging about correlation and causation (literally my third and fourth post ever), I asserted that there were three possibilities whenever two variables were correlated. Now that I'm older and wiser, I've expanded my list to six: Thing A caused Thing B (causality) Thing B caused Thing A (reversed causality) Thing A causes...

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https://www.wnyc.org/story/spurious-correlations/

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Deaths by Swimming Pool Drowning vs. Nicholas Cage Films and Other Spurious Correlations | On the Media | WNYC

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It is by now an age old adage that "correlation doesn't equal causation," but the internet just loves stories that make spurious correlations. Just yesterday there was an article floating around from Time magazine about a study that showed bullies have a lower risk of chronic diseases, with the headline "Bullying Is Good For Your Health."

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https://towardsdatascience.com/why-correlation-does-not-imply-causation-5b99790df07e