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Two weeks ago a minor water crisis hit Pakistan. The flow in rivers fell below agricultural requirements. Then temperatures rose, glaciers melted, and river flows increased threefold, evading a disaster.

"Had the temperatures not increased for another 10-15 days, we wouldn't have been able to give the required amount of water to the provinces," said Mohammad Khalid Rana, the Indus Water Regulatory Authority spokesman.

That would have meant a delay in planting crops like cotton, sugarcane, and rice.

The fluctuation in river flows, blamed mostly on climate change, was not unprecedented. Nor was it unexpected. Yet its solution does not appear to be in the works, for the near future.

"If we want to ensure our food security and meet our climate change challenges, we'll have to increase our water storage on a war footing," warns Rana.

Even though Rana works for a government agency, his warnings appear to be making little difference in policy, according to independent water experts.

Pakistan started off as a water affluent country in 1947, with per capita availability of renewable water at more than 5,000 cubic meters, to the verge of becoming water stressed, with per capita availability down to almost 1,000 cubic meters. Mainly due to an explosive growth in population that now stands at an estimated 190 million people.

"Nobody in this country is doing anything to slow down the rate of population growth," complained Shafqat Kakakhel, a former ambassador who has worked extensively on water related issues. "All other countries that were notorious for high population growth rates, Bangladesh, Subsaharan Africa, have done something ... we are doing absolutely nothing."

More than 90 percent of Pakistan's water resources are used in agriculture, which is much higher than the global average of 70 percent. The high consumption of water is blamed on outdated irrigation systems, loss of water during transmission, and the choice of crops.
Wrong choices
Pakistan mainly grows wheat, rice and sugar cane, which are all water intensive and some say the wrong choice for its agrarian economy.

"There is absolutely no justification in Pakistan for sugarcane," according to Kakakhel. "Sugarcane is like growing trees, like growing a forest, in the amount of water it consumes. And the rate of recovery, the amount of sugar you get from a litre of sugarcane juice is the lowest in the world."

Another water and energy expert Arshad Abbasi insisted Pakistan's problem is less of resources and more of management of resources.

"More than 86 countries of the world are surviving on less water than us," he said. They are doing so through efficient water management as well as modernizing their agriculture, he added.

"Over the next 10 years, the way the crops are becoming hybrid internationally, our farmers will not be able to compete," he cautioned.

Giving an example of Indian Punjab, with topography similar to Pakistani Punjab, Abbasi explains Indian agricultural yield was two to three times higher than Pakistan.

Outdated infrastructure

Pakistani farmers' irrigation systems also require an unnecessarily high amount of water.

Fields are flooded with water from canals or tube wells. Other water scarce countries have moved to drip irrigation systems or sprinkler systems that use much less water. In addition, the waterways built to transport water from rivers are not lined, leading to transmission losses of up to 40 percent.

The problem also exists in modern cities, like Islamabad that was designed and built only half a century ago. Abbasi said mismanagement of water during transmission leads to 60 percent leakage in the capital.

Adding to the difficulties is the fact the country has not increased its water storage capacity for several decades.

"You get 145 million acre feet of water throughout the year in your rivers, 70-80 percent of that water comes during only 70 days of Monsoon, July, August and 10 days of September," according to Rana of IRSA. "If you don't have the capacity to carry over that water for the rest of the 295 days, you will always be in trouble."

Farmers make up for the shortage by extracting water from the ground. In his analysis published in Development Advocate Pakistan, a UNDP funded publication, Shahid Ahmad, a water resources development and management expert, wrote Pakistan has around one million tube wells and any use beyond 10 percent of groundwater will result in rapid lowering of the water table."

In the past 40 years, he added, groundwater contribution to agriculture has doubled and now provides 47 percent of water available to farms.

But the government complains of a lack of funds.

One major storage project, the Diamer-Bhasha Dam on River Indus, has been approved for almost a decade. But work on the almost $14 billion project was stalled because Pakistan failed to acquire funds from international financial agencies.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif approved a plan last December to raise domestic funding for the dam and ordered physical work to be started before the end of 2017. Construction of such projects usually takes 8-10 years. The dam was originally supposed to come online in 2019.

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Pakistan on Verge of Disastrous Water Shortage

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Two weeks ago a minor water crisis hit Pakistan. The flow in rivers fell below agricultural requirements. Then temperatures rose, glaciers melted, and river flows increased threefold, evading a disaster. "Had the temperatures not increased for another 10-15 days, we wouldn't have been able to give the required amount of water to the provinces," said Mohammad Khalid Rana, the Indus Water Regulatory Authority spokesman.

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What’s Causing the California Water Crisis? | NowThis

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mayor says he hopes water service can be restored this week - cnn

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Amir Vera, Jason Hanna and Nouran Salahieh, CNN

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Jackson, Mississippi, mayor says he hopes water service can be restored this week, as residents endure lines for bottles

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It was only a matter time before the water system in Jackson, Mississippi, failed like it did this week, authorities said, leaving residents with no reliable running water to shower or brush their teeth and forcing schools and businesses to close.

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France, UK in diplomatic stink over raw sewage dumped in shared waters

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French lawmakers in the European parliament are urging the EU to take measures to end British discharges of raw sewage into shared waters - part of what they say is an unacceptable lowering of environmental…

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A drought has been declared across swathes of England amid prolonged dry conditions, with some areas not receiving significant rainfall all summer. A hosepipe ban came into force for about 1.4 million South East Water customers in Kent and Sussex on Friday, but more severe measures may be put in place

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England drought: how the country has been affected - video

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A drought has been declared across swathes of England amid prolonged dry conditions, with some areas not receiving significant rainfall all summer.

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One in five children globally does not have enough water to meet their everyday needs

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Clean water for every child

UNICEF is providing communities with access to safe water. One way of doing this is by drilling boreholes. In areas where long-term solutions are still needed, UNICEF is trucking fresh water to communities or providing families with purification tablets and powder. Latrines are constructing and maintained, and communities sensitized on importance of a sanitation plan. Hygiene promotion activities are ongoing across the country to prevent the transmission of diseases and provide a healthy future for the children.

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Clean water for every child UNICEF is providing communities with access to safe water. One way of doing this is by drilling boreholes. In areas where long-term solutions are still needed, UNICEF is trucking fresh water to communities or providing families with purification tablets and powder.

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Dr Mona Hanna- Attisha Fight for Clean Water

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Millions in this country are stranded by flooding. Many blame their neighbor | CNN

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Wading through muddy floodwaters up to chest height, hundreds of people slowly make their way to safety, their belongings held high above their heads to keep them dry.

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How companies are profiting from the water crisis

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Each year, waterborne diseases afflict hundreds of millions of people, primarily those living without safe, accessible water in developing countries.

Of the seven most common waterborne diseases in the world, diarrhea is the central symptom. The latest research shows that diarrhea is the second leading cause of death for children under the age of five, causing more childhood deaths than malaria, AIDS, and measles combined.

That's hundreds of thousands of deaths, but there is hope for the future. Experts believe we can end the global water and sanitation crisis in our lifetime.

What are Waterborne Diseases?

Waterborne diseases are illnesses caused by microscopic organisms, like viruses and bacteria, that are ingested through contaminated water or by coming in contact with feces.

If every person on the planet was able to practice safe sanitation and hygiene and have access to clean water, these diseases would not exist. Governments, NGOs, and communities themselves have made great strides in the past 20 years to end waterborne diseases. Still, there is much to be done.

Learn about seven waterborne diseases and help prevent them today.

1. Typhoid Fever

Although rare in industrialized countries, typhoid fever is well-known in extremely poor parts of developing nations; it's estimated that up to 20 million people worldwide suffer from the illness each year. It's spread through contaminated food, unsafe water, and poor sanitation, and it is highly contagious.
Symptoms include:

A fever that increases gradually

Muscle aches

Fatigue

Sweating

Diarrhea or constipation

Prevention and Treatment
Vaccines are recommended for people who are traveling in areas where poor sanitation and unsafe water are common. The vaccine can be injected via a shot or taken orally for a number of days. To prevent it, refrain from drinking any water that isn't bottled and sealed, and do not eat food from villages or street vendors. Typhoid is treated with antibiotics.

2. Cholera

Cholera is commonly found in humanitarian emergencies or marginalized villages where poverty and poor sanitation are rampant. The disease is spread through contaminated water and causes severe dehydration and diarrhea. Cholera can be fatal within days or even hours of exposure to the bacteria, but only 1 in 10 people will develop life-threatening symptoms.
Symptoms include: Prevention and Treatment
Cholera is a waterborne illness that's easily prevented when traveling. Wash your hands often, only eat foods that are completely cooked and hot (no sushi), and only eat vegetables you can peel yourself, like avocados, bananas, and oranges. Of course, drink safe water.

When handwashing in unavailable, cholera can impact an entire village. In developing countries like Ethiopia, data shows that 40 percent of households do not have means to wash their hands properly, meaning they don't have safe water, soap, and a facility to wash. This makes hygiene management and disease prevention nearly impossible for these communities.

Lifewater helps prevent cholera in remote villages by teaching families how to construct their own handwashing devices. To date, 5,970 homes in Ethiopia alone have built their own handwashing station (called a " tippy tap ") using locally-sourced materials.

3. Giardia

This waterborne disease is shared through contaminated water, most often in ponds and streams, but it can also be found in a town's water supply, swimming pools, and more. The infection is caused by a parasite and typically clears up after a few weeks. However, it's possible for those who have been exposed will experience intestinal problems for years to come.
Symptoms include: Prevention and Treatment
While there is no vaccine for giardia, there are simple ways to avoid the infection. Wash your hands with soap often, don't swallow water while swimming, and drink only bottled water.

With time, the immune system will typically beat giardia on its own. But, if symptoms worsen, doctors prescribe anti-parasite and antibiotic medications.

Water-poor communities cannot protect themselves from illnesses like giardia, and treatment for this illness can come at a high cost for a family living in poverty. For these reasons, Lifewater's programs focus on long-term prevention. This includes constructing safe water sources and teaching health practices, one house at a time, until the entire community has the resources and the knowledge to prevent waterborne illness.

When families learn how to construct their own handwashing facilities, bathrooms, and dish drying racks, they take control of their health. They check off a list of basic health practices, and they become certified Lifewater " Healthy Homes."

4. Dysentery

An intestinal infection, dysentery is a waterborne disease characterized by severe diarrhea as well as blood or mucus in the stool. Dysentery is good reason to always wash your hands, as the disease is spread mainly through poor hygiene. It can be caused by bacteria, viruses, or parasites in unsafe food and water and by people coming in contact with fecal matter. If someone experiencing dysentery cannot replace fluids quickly enough, their life could be at risk.
Symptoms include: Prevention and Treatment
To prevent dysentery, wash your hands with soap frequently, order all drinks without ice, don't eat food sold by street vendors, and only eat fruits you can peel. Drink only sealed, bottled water while traveling in places with higher dysentery risk, such as communities where proper hygiene practices are uncommon.

Mild dysentery usually clears up with rest and fluids, but over-the-counter medications such as Pepto-Bismol can help with stomach cramping. More severe cases can be treated with antibiotics, although some strains of the disease are resistant.

5. Escherichia Coli (E. coli)

E. coli is a bacteria with various strains, some dangerous and some beneficial. For example, E. coli bacteria is important in creating a healthy intestinal tract.

However, if animal waste has found its way into farmland where produce is grown or if strains of E. coli are spread through the process of making ground beef, those who consume these foods could experience symptoms of the waterborne illness. The bacteria is also found in unsafe water sources around the globe where human water sources and cattle coexist.

Symptoms of dangerous strains of E. coli are similar to that of dysentery and other waterborne diseases. Most bouts of E. coli pass within a week, but older people and young children have a greater chance of developing life-threatening symptoms. Anyone believed to have been exposed to contaminated food or water should contact a doctor if diarrhea contains blood.
Prevention and Treatment
As always, avoid water possibly contaminated by human and/or animal feces (like ponds, rivers, and swamps). If you are going to eat ground beef, cook thoroughly. Wash fruits and vegetables well, wash hands often, and drink only safe water.

To treat the disease, drink plenty of safe water, rest, and take over-the-counter diarrheal medication.

While these are simple prevention and treatment tips, there are many remote communities in Uganda who have no choice but to drink from swamps.

Lifewater staff are serving the village of Kikomera Biri, Uganda, where families gather water from a swamp. The results of water testing showed an extremely high risk for dangerous pathogens like typhoid, harmful strains of E. coli, and other waterborne diseases. Unless this community-which is already experiencing extreme poverty-pays for a taxi to drive into town for expensive, bottled water, they have no choice but to keep drinking from the swamp.

Thankfully, a new safe water source for all 299 residents is planned for construction this year.

6. Hepatitis A

Hepatitis A is a liver infection caused by consuming contaminated food and water or by coming in close contact with someone who has the infection. People who travel in developing countries often or work in rural communities with poor sanitation and hygiene management are most exposed to the disease.
Symptoms include:

Fatigue

Clay-colored bowel movements

Jaundice

Nausea and vomiting

Abdominal pain, especially near your liver

Loss of appetite

Sudden fever

The infection usually goes away in a few weeks, but it's possible that it can become severe and last several months.
Prevention and Treatment
The best way to prevent hepatitis A is by getting the vaccine. Eat only foods that are thoroughly cooked and served hot, and avoid eating anything at room temperature. Only eat fruit that you can peel and that you have peeled yourself. Don't eat from food vendors and don't eat runny eggs or raw/rare meat. For a full list of dos and don'ts, visit the CDC's page on Hepatitis A here.

Once a person has hepatitis A, they build an immunity and will likely never get it again. However, the symptoms are serious, often forcing people to take time off work or school to recover. If you have contracted hepatitis A, rest, avoid drinking alcohol, and drink plenty of fluids. The disease will run its course, and full recovery is expected after three months.

7. Salmonella

Most cases of salmonella come from ingesting food or water contaminated with feces. Undercooked meat, egg products, fruits, and vegetables can also carry the disease. Most people don't develop complications, but children, pregnant women, older adults, and people with weakened immune systems are most at risk.
Symptoms include: Prevention and Treatment
When preparing your own food, make sure to cook thoroughly and store or freeze within 30 minutes of use. Avoid touching birds or reptiles, and as always, wash your hands frequently.

Salmonella infection dehydrates the body. Treat it by drinking fluids and electrolytes. More serious infections can require hospitalization and antibiotics.

Prevent Waterborne Diseases for Good: Give with Lifewater

There are many parts in the world where waterborne diseases are rampant, deadly, and knowledge about prevention is not widely available. For over 40 years, Lifewater has sought out these places, working with communities to teach vital sanitation and health practices and constructing custom water technologies in places where water access is most difficult.

Over and over again, cholera is prevented and typhoid eradicated. Children no longer battle waterborne illness, and parents go back to work.

When you become a monthly giving partner with Lifewater, you give safe water to one person for life every month. Or, give one time. Every gift changes lives. You'll receive real-time updates on progress and photos to share with friends and family. You can eliminate waterborne diseases for good. Give today!

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7 Most Common Waterborne Diseases (and How to Prevent Them)

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Each year, waterborne diseases afflict hundreds of millions of people, primarily those living without safe, accessible water access in developing countries. Prevent seven waterborne diseases today.

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How Israel created a water crisis for Palestinians | It's Complicated

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Sudan: Country faces water and food shortage | Latest English News | World News | WION

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Waterborne diseases such as dysentery and Weil's disease have risen by 60% since 2010 in England, new figures reveal.

Analysis of NHS hospital admissions by the Labour party has found that the number of people admitted to hospital with diseases transmitted via waterborne infection has increased from 2,085 in 2010-11 to 3,286 in 2022-23.

The analysis follows widespread anger after record sewage spills were revealed this week. Environment Agency data showed that raw sewage was discharged for more than 3.6m hours into rivers and seas last year - a 129% increase on the previous 12 months.

Increased raw sewage in rivers means there is a higher risk of infections, campaigners argue, as people are more likely to come into contact with the bacteria in human waste.

Over the last year, for example, 122 people were diagnosed with leptospirosis (Weil's disease), double the number in 2010. The disease, which can lead to liver damage and kidney failure, is spread through water contaminated with the urine of infected animals, usually rats or livestock. Infected urine enters the mouth, eyes or a cut, usually during activities such as kayaking, outdoor swimming or fishing. Cases of typhoid, which is also spread through polluted water, rose from 445 to 603.

Labour's shadow environment secretary, Steve Reed, said: "It is sickening that this Conservative government has turned a blind eye to illegal sewage dumping that has put thousands of people in hospital. To make matters worse, consumers face higher water bills while water bosses pocket millions in bonuses.

"Labour will put the water companies under special measures to clean up water. We will strengthen regulation so that law-breaking water bosses face criminal charges, and give the regulator new powers to block the payment of any bonuses until water bosses have cleaned up their filth."

The analysis comes as the Oxford and Cambridge boat race organisers issued new safety guidance for the race on Saturday, warning rowers not to enter the water and to cover any open wounds, after high levels of E coli bacteria were found on the River Thames course.

Instead of the traditional celebration in which members of the winning team often jump into the river, the crews will be encouraged to wash themselves down at a dedicated cleansing station at the finish. Some rowers have reported becoming seriously unwell after dirty water has entered the blisters they get from holding the oars.

Alastair Chisholm, director of policy at the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, said: "Our research shows 86% of the public want water reformed under the next government. Our river crisis is not only impacting the health of nature, but it's making people sick too. That has to change. We need urgent reform."

Richard Benwell, chief executive of Wildlife and Countryside Link, said: "Pollution and nature loss are a public health disaster. Billions could be saved every year for the NHS by cleaning up filthy rivers, curbing air pollution and bringing nature back to life. All parties should make big polluters pay and ensure water companies invest in nature recovery for the sake of public health."

Richard Walker, businessman and former Chair of Surfers Against Sewage, who was a Tory donor before switching in January to support Labour, said: "The way the Tories have allowed our coasts, rivers, and streams to become engorged with excrement is the perfect metaphor for the way they've treated the country these past 14 years. Labour's plan will take the tough action required to get our vital utilities back to serving the public interest.

"Everyone deserves to enjoy our beautiful coastline and rivers without the fear of getting sick because some fat cat has been shovelling out dividends rather than investing in vital improvements."

A government spokesperson said: "We have been clear the volume of sewage discharged into our waters is completely unacceptable and water companies need to clean up their act fast.

"We are already taking tough action to hold them to account, including demanding record levels of fast-tracked investment, ensuring a 100% monitoring of storm overflows and a quadrupling of water company inspections, and are currently consulting on a ban on water bosses' bonuses, when criminal breaches have occurred.

"This is in addition to the stringent targets in place for water companies to reduce sewage spills - front-loading action at designated bathing waters to make the biggest difference to these sites as quickly as possible."

This article was amended on 30 March 2024 to clarify that leptospirosis is spread to humans though the infected urine of animals, commonly rats and livestock.

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Hospital admissions for waterborne diseases in England up 60%, report shows

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Labour party analysis of figures since 2010 shows raw sewage was discharged for more than 3.6m hours last year

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What is the guinea worm? How can it be eradicated? 

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How does climate change affect water contamination? 

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Fresh water scarcity: An introduction to the problem - Christiana Z. Peppard

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Turning Sea Water into Clean Water without Pollution 

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Turning Sea Water into Clean Water without Pollution 

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2015 UNICEF Tap Project:  Access to Clean Water in Rwanda

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In the United States, many residents, but not all, are fortunate to have access to clean, fresh water every day. When they turn on the tap, plumbing systems instantly bring this important resource into their homes. Despite its importance for life, though, freshwater is an extremely rare resource on Earth. Less than three percent of the water found on Earth is freshwater, and the remaining 97 percent is salt water, such as what is found in the ocean.

Most of the world's freshwater is not easily accessible to humans. Approximately 69 percent of Earth's freshwater is locked away in the form of ice in glaciers and polar ice caps, and another 30 percent of Earth's freshwater is under the surface in the form of groundwater. That leaves only about one percent of Earth's freshwater as readily available for human use.

Unfortunately, the available surface freshwater is not equally distributed throughout the world. Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, China, Colombia, and the United States have most of the world's surface freshwater resources. As a result, approximately one-fifth of the world's population lives in water-scarce areas where, on average, each person receives less than 1,000 cubic meters (35,315 cubic feet) of water a year. This lack of water affects people's access to clean, usable water, as well as the economic development and geopolitics of different areas.
Access to Water
Because freshwater resources are unequally distributed across the globe, many human populations do not have access to clean, safe drinking water. According to the United Nations, 2.1 billion people around the globe lacked access to safely managed drinking water in 2017. Instead, they had access only to contaminated water, which can carry pollution and infectious diseases; populations drinking dirty water are at increased risk of diarrhea, cholera, dysentery, and other diseases. Lack of access to clean drinking water leads to more than 3 million deaths every year.

As a result, providing improved water sources to developing countries is an important goal for international organizations. Between 1990 and 2015, 2.6 billion people worldwide gained access to improved water resources as a result of international efforts. The remaining human populations still without access to clean water are concentrated mostly in Africa and Asia, representing nearly 1 billion people.
Economic Development
Access to freshwater is also important for economic development. For example, freshwater sources enable the development of fisheries. People around the world harvest fish from these habitats, providing enough animal protein to feed 158 million people worldwide. These fisheries are both a source of subsistence for local fishermen and a source of income for traders.

Beyond the use of freshwater as a habitat, freshwater is also an important resource in other economic activities, such as agriculture. According to one estimate, about 70 percent of the world's freshwater is used for agriculture. Farmers around the world use irrigation to transport water from surface and ground water sources to their fields. These agricultural activities involve over 1 billion people worldwide and generate over $2.4 trillion in economic value every year. In the future, demand for agricultural freshwater will only increase as global populations grow. According to one estimate, freshwater demand will increase by 50 percent by 2050. This increase in water use will put further strain on Earth's limited freshwater supplies and make access to freshwater even more important.
Geopolitics
The fight over freshwater can already be seen today in international geopolitics. For example, Ethiopia and Egypt have long fought over Nile water resources in the Horn of Africa. The Nile River is an important waterway that supplies nearly 85 percent of Egypt's water. However, approximately 85 percent of the Nile's water originates in Ethiopia. Because Ethiopia is planning to dam part of the Nile River in order to generate electricity, Egypt is concerned that its access to the Nile's waters will be adversely impacted. Although the disagreement has not yet turned into open conflict, it is clear that securing this important freshwater resource will define Ethiopian-Egyptian relations for many years in the future.

These conflicts over water resources are common throughout the world. Even in the United States, where freshwater resources are relatively abundant, different populations fight over the use of freshwater. One major debate that is currently being waged centers on the Colorado River system. This water system supplies water to Arizona, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, but due to a drought that has reduced water flow in this river system, these seven states need to decide how to reduce water usage in order to preserve the river for all the other users. As populations grow, and as climate change alters precipitation patterns around the world, these conflicts over water will continue to occur, and with greater frequency, in the future.

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In the United States, many residents, but not all, are fortunate to have access to clean, fresh water every day. When they turn on the tap, plumbing systems instantly bring this important resource into their homes. Despite its importance for life, though, freshwater is an extremely rare resource on Earth.

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Lack of safe drinking water and adequate sanitation effects countries around the globe.

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Gaza water crisis: Israeli bombings worsen shortages and forcing families to ration

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Speaking to me via Zoom from his flat in Amsterdam, Ali al-Sadr pauses to take a sip from a clear glass of water. The irony dawning on him, he lets out a laugh. "Before I left Iraq, I struggled every day to find clean drinking water." Three years earlier, al-Sadr had joined protests in the streets of his native Basra, demanding the authorities address the city's growing water crisis.

"Before the war, Basra was a beautiful place," adds the 29-year-old. "They used to call us the Venice of the East." Bordered on one side by the Shatt al-Arab River, the city is skewered by a network of freshwater canals. al-Sadr, a dockhand, once loved working alongside them. "But by the time I left, they were pumping raw sewage into the waterways. We couldn't wash, the smell [of the river] gave me migraines and, when I finally fell sick, I spent four days in bed." In the summer of 2018, tainted water sent 120,000 Basrans to the city's hospitals - and, when police opened fire on those who protested, al Sadr was lucky to escape with his life. "Within a month I packed my bags and left for Europe," he says.

Around the world, stories like al Sadr's are becoming far too common. As much as a quarter of the world's population now faces severe water scarcity at least one month out of the year and - as in al-Sadr's case - it is leading many to seek a more secure life in other countries. "If there is no water, people will start to move," says Kitty van der Heijden, chief of international cooperation at the Netherlands' foreign ministry and an expert in hydropolitics. Water scarcity affects roughly 40% of the world's population and, according to predictions by the United Nations and the World Bank, drought could put up to 700 million people at risk of displacement by 2030. People like van der Heijden are concerned about what that could lead to.

"If there is no water, politicians are going to try and get their hands on it and they might start to fight over it," she says.

Over the course of the 20th Century, global water use grew at more than twice the rate of population increase. Today, this dissonance is leading many cities - from Rome to Cape Town, Chennai to Lima - to ration water. Water crises have been ranked in the top five of the World Economic Forum's Global Risks by Impact list nearly every year since 2012. In 2017, severe droughts contributed to the worst humanitarian crisis since World War Two, when 20 million people across Africa and the Middle East were forced to leave their homes due to the accompanying food shortages and conflicts that erupted.

Peter Gleick, head of the Oakland-based Pacific Institute, has spent the last three decades studying the link between water scarcity, conflict and migration and believes that water conflict is on the rise. "With very rare exceptions, no one dies of literal thirst," he told Reuters. "But more and more people are dying from contaminated water or conflicts over access to water."

Gleick and his team are behind the Water Conflict Chronology: a log of 925 water conflicts, large and small, stretching back to the days of the Babylonian king Hammurabi. It is not, by any means, exhaustive and the conflicts listed vary from full blown wars to disputes between neighbours. But what they reveal is that the relationship between water and conflict is a complex one.

"We categorised water conflicts in three groups," Gleick told BBC Future. "As a 'trigger' of conflict, where violence is associated with disputes over access and control of water; as a 'weapon' of conflict, where water or water systems are used as weapons in conflicts, including for the use of dams to withhold water or flood downstream communities; and as 'casualties' or 'targets' of conflicts, where water resources or treatment plants or pipelines are targeted during conflicts."

Leaf through the records he and his colleagues have compiled, however, and it becomes clear that the bulk of the conflicts are agriculture-related. It's perhaps not surprising as agriculture accounts for 70% of freshwater use. In the semi-arid Sahel region of Africa, for example, there are regular reports of herdsmen and crop farmers clashing violently over scarce supplies of water needed for their animals and crops.

But as demand for water grows, so too does the scale of the potential conflicts.
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"The latest research on the subject does indeed show water-related violence increasing over time," says Charles Iceland, global director for water at the World Resources Institute. "Population growth and economic development are driving increasing water demand worldwide. Meanwhile, climate change is decreasing water supply and/or making rainfall increasingly erratic in many places."

Nowhere is the dual effect of water stress and climate change more evident than the wider Tigris-Euphrates Basin - comprising Turkey, Syria, Iraq and western Iran. According to satellite imagery, the region is losing groundwater faster than almost anywhere else in the world. And as some countries make desperate attempts to secure their water supplies, their actions are affecting their neighbours.

During June 2019, as Iraqi cities sweltered through a 50C (122F) heatwave, Turkey said it would begin filling its Ilisu dam at the origins of the Tigris. It is the latest in a long-running project by Turkey to build 22 dams and power plants along the Tigris and the Euphrates that, according to a report by the French International Office for Water, is significantly affecting the flow of water into Syria, Iraq and Iran. It claims that when complete Turkey's Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi (GAP) could include as many as 90 dams and 60 power plants. ( See how dams such as the Ilisu are reshaping our planet.)

As water levels behind the mile-wide Ilisu dam rose, the flow from the river into Iraq halved. Thousands of kilometres away in Basra, al-Sadr and his neighbours saw the quality of their water deteriorate. In August, hundreds of people began pouring into Basra's hospitals suffering from rashes, abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhoea, and even cholera, according to Human Rights Watch.

"There's actually two parts to the story in Basra," Iceland says. "Firstly, you have the obvious discharge of wastewater into local waterways without any treatment. But you've also got to consider the damming at the Turkish border - with less freshwater flowing down the Tigris and Euphrates, saltwater is intruding further up the river (from the Persian Gulf). Over time, it's ruining crops and it's making people sick."

It's a complicated picture, but this ability to see links between the seemingly disparate has informed Iceland's work with the Dutch government-funded Water, Peace and Security (WPS) partnership, a group of six American and European NGOs (including the Pacific Institute and the World Resources Institute). They've developed a Global Early Warning Tool, which uses machine learning to predict conflicts before they happen. It combines data about rainfall, crop failures, population density, wealth, agricultural production, levels of corruption, droughts, and flooding, among many other sources of data to produce conflict warnings. They are displayed on a red-and-orange Mercator projection down to the level of administrative districts. Currently it is warning of around 2,000 potential conflict hotspots, with an accuracy rate of 86%. ( Read more about how AI can help to identify conflicts before they happen.)

The Indus River is a vital water source for northern India and Pakistan, but originates in the mountains of Tibet that are controlled by China (Credit: Nadeem Khawar/Getty Images)

But while the WPS Tool can be used to identify locations where conflicts over water are at risk of breaking out, it can also help to inform those hoping to understand what is happening in areas that are already experiencing strife due to water scarcity.

India's Northern Plains, for example, are one of the most fertile farming areas in the world, yet today, villagers regularly clash over water scarcity. The underlying data reveals that population growth and high levels of irrigation have outstripped available groundwater supplies. Despite the area's lush-looking cropland, the WPS map ranks nearly every district in Northern India as "extremely high" in terms of baseline water stress. Several key rivers which feed the area - the Indus, Ganges and Sutlej - all originate on the Tibetan side of the border yet are vital for water supplies in both India and Pakistan. Several border skirmishes have broken out recently between India and China, which lays claim to upstream areas. A violent clash in May last year in the Galwan Valley, through which a tributary to the Indus flows, left 20 Indian soldiers dead. Less than a month later there were reports that China was building "structures" that might dam the river and so restrict its flow into India.

But the data captured by the Global Early Warning tool also reveals some strange trends. In some of the most water-stressed parts of the world, there appears to be a net-migration of people into these areas. Oman, for example, suffers higher levels of drought than Iraq but received hundreds of thousands of migrants per year prior to the pandemic. That's because Oman fares far better than the latter in terms of corruption, water infrastructure, ethnic fractionalisation, and hydropolitical tension. "A community's vulnerability to drought is more important than the drought itself," says Lina Eklund and Darcy Thompson, of Sweden's Lund University in a piece for the Conversation.

The link between water scarcity and conflict, in other words, isn't as straightforward as it seems. Even where severe drought exists, a complex mix of factors will determine whether it actually leads to conflict: social cohesion being one of the most important. Take the Kurdistan region of Iraq, for example: an area which suffered through the same five-year drought that pushed one-and-a-half million Syrian farmers into urban centres in March 2011. The tight-knit Kurdish community didn't experience the same exodus, discontent, or subsequent infighting. Jessica Hartog, head of natural resource management and climate change at International Alert, a London-based NGO, explains this is because the Syrian government, aiming for food self-sufficiency, had long subsidised agriculture, including fuel, fertiliser, and ground water extraction. When Damascus abruptly scrapped these supports mid-drought, rural families were forced to migrate en masse to urban centres bringing a distrust of the al-Assad regime with them, fueling the bitter civil war that has torn the country to pieces.

But if potential flash-points for conflicts over water can be identified, can something be done to stop them in the future?

Unfortunately, there's no one-size-fits-all solution to water scarcity. In many countries simply reducing loss and leaks could make a huge difference - Iraq loses as much as two-thirds of treated water due to damaged infrastructure. The WPS partners also suggest tackling corruption and reducing agricultural over-abstraction as other key policies that could help. Iceland even suggests increasing the price of water to reflect the cost of its provision - in many parts of the world, humans have grown used to getting water being a cheap and plentiful resource rather than something to be treasured.

Much can also be done by freeing up more water for use through techniques such as desalination of seawater. Saudi Arabia currently meets 50% of its water needs through the process. "Grey", or waste water, recycling can also offer a low-cost, easy-to-implement alternative, which can help farming communities impacted by drought. One assessment of global desalination and wastewater treatment predicted that increased capacity of these could reduce the proportion of the global population under severe water scarcity from 40% to 14%.

At the international level, extensive damming by countries upstream are likely to increase the risk of disputes with those that rely on rivers for much of their water supply further downstream. But Susanne Schmeier, associate professor of water law and diplomacy at IHE Delft in the Netherlands, says that co-riparian conflict is easier to spot and less likely to come to a head. "Local conflicts are much more difficult to control and tend to escalate rapidly - a main difference from the transboundary level, where relations between states often limit the escalation of water-related conflicts," she says

Around the world, there's plenty of examples where tensions are high though - the Aral Sea conflict comprising Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan; the Jordan River conflict amongst the Levantine states; the Mekong River dispute between China and its neighbours in Southeast Asia. None have yet boiled over into conflict. But Schmeier also points towards one dispute that is showing signs it might.

Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia all depend on inflow from the Blue Nile and have long exchanged political blows over the upstream Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project - a dam built at $5bn (£3.6bn), and three times the size of the country's Lake Tana.

When the Ethiopian government announced plans to press ahead regardless, Egypt and Sudan held a joint war exercise in May this year, pointedly called "Guardians of the Nile." It has perhaps the highest risk of spilling into a water war of all the disputes in today's political landscape, but there are several other hotspots around the world. Pakistani officials, for example, have previously referred to India's upstream usage strategy as "fifth-generation warfare", whilst Uzbek President Islam Karimov has warned that regional disputes over water could lead to war.

"I won't name specific countries, but all of this could deteriorate to the point where not just serious confrontation, but even wars could be the result," he said.

Water-sharing agreements are a common way of de-escalating these kinds of dispute. More than 200 have been signed since the end of the Second World War - such as the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, and an agreement between Israel and Jordan signed before their peace treaty. But a more than decade-long attempt by the UN to introduce a global Water Convention on transboundary rivers and lakes has only resulted in 43 countries agreeing to be bound by it.

Hartog says modern treaties will likely need to include a drought mitigation protocol, to assuage downstream countries' fears of being cut-off in a crisis and a dispute resolution mechanism, for when things turn ugly.

In fact, that would mirror the example set by Lesotho, South Africa, Botswana and Namibia who, after tensions bubbled to dangerous levels over shared resources in 2000, intensified cooperation via the Orange-Senqu River Commission (Orasecom). In that example, the establishment of shared watercourse agreements and enshrining the principles of reasonable use proved enough to de-escalate the situation. Where it becomes necessary to free up additional water, though, the research consistently suggests that desalination and wastewater treatment are two of the most efficient strategies.

Perhaps Egypt is heeding this message. The country's government last year brokered a number of deals to open as many as 47 new desalination plants in the country, along with the world's largest wastewater treatment plant. Although the Egyptian authorities have accelerated construction of the plants, the bulk of these projects not due to be completed until after 2030 and the country's water situation continues to degrade. Hartog believes Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan may need to seek outside help if they are to avoid conflict.

"It looks unlikely that the three countries will find an agreement themselves and international diplomatic efforts need to be stepped up to avoid an escalation," she says, adding that pressure is mounting on the increasingly-isolationist government in Addis Ababa. "This might well be the best entry point for countries like the US, Russia and China to join forces to help the riparian countries to secure a trilateral binding agreement."

And what of internal conflict? Several smaller nations are blazing their own trails to better manage water. Peru requires water utility providers to reinvest a portion of their profits into research and integrating green infrastructure into stormwater management. Vietnam is cracking down on industrial pollution along its portion of the Mekong Delta, and integrating traditional-built water infrastructure to ensure a more equitable distribution amongst its urban and rural residents.

As climate change and growing human populations continue to compound the problem of droughts around the world - such solutions will become ever more necessary to stop conflict and migration. In December last year - more than two years after Ali al-Sadr left Basra - fewer than 11% of households in the city had access to clean drinking water. An injection of $6.4m (£4.6m/€5.5m) from the Netherlands, facilitated by Unicef, at the end of 2020 is now helping to upgrade the city's creaking water infrastructure, but power cuts earlier this summer shut down many of the city's water pumps amid soaring temperatures.

For those al-Sadr left in the city, the wider implications of their plight are hard to see when faced with daily problems getting clean water and the city was hit by further unrest in recent months. Until the situation gets better, al-Sadr fears the angry demonstrations will continue.

"When I protested, I didn't know what was behind it all," says al-Sadr. "I just wanted something to drink."
* This article has been updated on 3 May 2022 to attribute Peter Glieck's initial quotation to an interview he gave to Reuters and Lina Eklund's quote to an article she wrote for the Conversation. We apologise for any confusion this may have caused. -- Join one million Future fans by liking us on If you liked this story, sign up for the weekly bbc.com features newsletter, called "The Essential List". A handpicked selection of stories from BBC Future, Culture, Worklife, and Travel, delivered to your inbox every Friday. Facebook, or follow us on Twitter or Instagram.

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