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I... don't really know how to begin this message...

Let me just share something with you, my friends, my mates, my colleagues. Spread all around the world. I'm sure all of us either always or at some point of life have helped others. So have I. Malnutrition, poverty, access to clean water, access to education, war veterans, oncological patients, pets, you-name-it.

Ten days ago our eastern neighbours had ca. 43,8 Mio. citizens, Poland having some 37,6. Already some ... 0,8 Mio. (!) refugees have crossed the Polish border seeking shelter from bombs, rockets and tanks... By the end of the month, counting both the refugees and the victims there may be more LIVING souls in Poland than in Ukraine...

I'd never expect that this part of the world, home to tens and hundreds million of people, 80+ years after the 1930's, will be facing the same sort of scary days...

Over the last 10 days, I've donated funds, I've been purchasing food and other supplies and delivering them to the collection points, offering translation services, I shared some of my own clothing, I saw my son's primary school joining the collection program, I was proud to see metropolitan transport and trains offering free fares for the refugees, to see sport clubs welcoming kids for free trainings, people arranging shelters, even just offering a good word and a block of chocolate to the kids stepping down to the platform from the incoming trains from Lviv or Kiev, Ukrainian flags flown everywhere...

But... two days ago, when in the supermarket, filling the next basket for the unfortunate victims of this unprecedented invasion

my hand grabbed ... boxes with adhesive bandages

... decorated with Winnie-the-Pooh and sisters from the 'Frozen'...

something inside me just broke

and I began ... to cry in the very middle of the supermarket,

leaning on the shelves...

thinking of the 3-6-years old kids, old enough to understand

what's happening and asking aloud why do they have

to leave home

and their Dad's...

Let's help them and let's do all we can, so that next month ...

Germans and Czechs won't be facing Polish, Lithuanian, Latvian, Estonian, Slovak (and Ukrainian) refugees,

and next month...

This must STOP!

YRS,

Marek

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Building on what Richard has said...
:)))

Richard, thank you again (this time in public...). :)

Actually you've been sort of reading my mind, as - unless something suddenly blows - I was planning to take to the blackboard the companies, enterprises, our employers, us-as-employers and ... our Tax Authorities in tomorrow's message. But, catalysed, here we go...

I can already see a lot of us helping, digging into our own pockets and wallets, committing time and efforts to help, to spread the word. Noble, of assistance, commendable, the thing to do, etc. But how do our (even INSEAD MBAs') resources and incomes compare to those of our (no matter how to define 'our') companies and their business partners? How often and how much do you see the enterprises, companies and corporations involved. Eg. sacrificing part of the profit - that made in or with the aggressors. How often and to what extent do you see them lending a hand to the victims of this war?

I'm proud to say that my company has immediately halted all deals with the two countries, in spite of that being a large chunk of our business, and that both the owners of the company and all (!) employees actively support the refugees.

Richard, it's great to hear (well, read) that eg. your company is already helping. How wide-spread is this movement and this motion around us and in other companies we can somehow influence? And yes, thank you, indeed the Polish 'front' could always use Western/international support.

I am happy and proud to mention that Polish companies are already doing a lot. From the hotels/motels allotting rooms, through restaurants providing catering, transport companies offering busses to people and trucks for help supplies, taxi owners offering free rides to refugees, to even industry associations or employer's groups eg. funding kindergartens and schools for Ukrainian kids in Poland. Fortunately scrooges I've written about in one of the recent messages, scavenging on seeing a cheap labor at the expense of Polish workers are far more seldom cases, than the wide-spread, if not calling it a broad, common general motion,

As much as I dislike politically current government, I must say a warm word that they stood up to the challenge and currently a quick change of the Tax Law is prepared - offering businesses to have the help tax-deductible and to free the Ukrainians in Poland from ... inheritance and donation tax, to which all individuals living in Poland are subject to beyond a certain sum thereof (actually pretty low for family-unrelated individuals).

So, let's see how the companies, who surely have stronger financials than the employees / individual citizens, can help. Actually, as-we-speak, the moment I finish this message I'm off to lobbying stationery suppliers and sport-stores in Poland to help schools and kindergartens created for the refugee children to provide school supplies and sport's equipment.

As for the "... any suggestions for where we could send money to provide practical help in Poland? ... a few of us would like to get money or resources to people on the ground in Poland more quickly if possible as well. I think that the Poles are handling this heroically, but you need support. ..." - thank you and - yes, by all means. Please, bear with me / stay tuned. I will surely share with you whatever hits my radar-screen, so that you can contribute to a specific, identifiable project/cause. Helping through organizations and funds is, of course, needed, but there are also a lot of smaller, less known initiatives, where a thousand EUR or two will not be a drop-in-the-ocean, but a major contribution.

I'm targeting foremost individuals' initiatives, where one or few simple citizens came up with an idea, devoted some of their own property, money and time - here any cent could be a fantastic leverage. Jessica was (kudos!) eg. the first one to react on the pre/first-grades' school jump-started in someone's house. If we help the people who already help, that makes them feel even more right about what they are doing. My second focus line (not excluding the first, above mentioned) is when new jobs are created - for incoming Ukrainians, ideally - enabling them to help in turn the other refugees. Hopefully soon I'll be able to give you even a selection of targets, so that you can pick-and-select on what you'd prefer to support.

I'll be coming back with more.

Cheers!
Marek

PS: I'm financing travel for some refugees with children - if you feel like chipping-in - let me know on priv.

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Hi Marek.

Thank you for all that you, and others similarly, I’m doing in this terrible situation. I wish that my own government was better with this - we are very good at making bellicose noises, very bad at practical help.

Have you any suggestions for where we could send money to provide practical help in Poland? My firm is sending money through one or two of the major aid organisations, but a few of us would like to get money or resources to people on the ground in Poland more quickly if possible as well. I think that the Poles are handling this heroically, but you need support.

Richard

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HELP (own, personal observations from this morning)

Today morning I was at the Eastern Warsaw Railway Station for a change with some more supplies for the 'fresh-from-the-train' guests to our country. Based on what I saw, having discussed locally and consulting local coordination centers:

When thinking of goodies' collection (food, clothes, med-supplies, as opposed to financial help / fundraising), meaning - when you decide what is purchased and sent to the incomers front-line, being mainly the larger train stations (be it in Poland, Slovakia or Romania, but also already in your own countries) - think of 'first moment welcome packages', statistically - for a set "mother + 1-or-2".

Most-needed would be:

- single-portion, quick, strait-off-the-train food/drinks
eg. I've purchased and delivered in the morning to the train station boxes/multipacks of 200ml multivitamin, made-in-Poland juices,
you know - Winnie-the-Pooh, Frozen, Mulan, Cars - ZigZack McQueen...
and some take-in-hand quick sweet bites... -
brings a shy smile-through-the-tears on these little faces, positive connotations of where they've landed, but foremost - it's a

quick 'battery charge': drink, nutrition, vitamins for them
and puts less burden on the volunteers (no need to distribute the cups, pour the drinks, etc.),

- change of clothes

best running now: (factory-new, with labels and shop-hangers = evidently fresh-and-new...)
socks, tights, underwear - 'on average' - mainly for 3-8 yrs old age segment.

- small plush mascots

new friends - sometimes in absence of the ones left at home in rush,
frequently - someone ... to take care of by the little in-turn-guardian/care-taker and
someone to hug when mother is out to bring food, find a job...,

- small pet-food portions

a lot of dogs and cats, members-of-the-family are not left behind, the mums-with-kids won't be carrying a value-for-money 5 kg bags from train station,
to temporary-stay places, to the next-stage place, but will be happy to know the pupil is taken care of, at least 'for now / few days', one problem to solve less for them...

Targeted-help initiative:
Today I'm promoting a local Polish (not Warsaw though) initiative - friends in Toruń gave half of their house to create a combined pre-school/first-grades'-school for the Ukrainian kids. They have employed (back to my yesterdays message: they have created the jobs, not taken them away from locals to make more money...) two ladies with suitable education, experience and qualification from the refugees as teachers, paying them out of their own pockets, but they've reached their own financial limits and there's a space and need for at least two more pre/primary-education teachers there. If any of you want to support this particular initiative, let me know on priv. 'First-come, first-served' - I'm sure tomorrow I'll have something valuable for the next-in-line. :)

Keep in mind: unless I'm mistaken - eg. in Germany average annual income was some EUR 42,2? In Poland some EUR 21k. What you may think is little, it would be great pay for these teachers and more-than-a-decent pay to live in Poland. A dinner at a restaurant in Western Europe, US, etc. can buy a month's salary for an Ukrainian teacher...
We also plan the supplies (writing material, furniture, hygiene products, etc.) for this ad-hoc created education facility.

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For a break from our serious moments and since a few people (Nicolas, Tatiana et al) have been asking about India's behaviour at the UN, thought to share. 'I am McAdams' is trending on Indian twitter for a few days now. First I thought it was a comic sketch or some deep fake but it is real (Apologies if you already saw it - this is the youtube version). 😆 Watch till the end! 😜 Rahul Shivshankar of Times Now EMBARRASSES HIMSELF 😂	😆 Watch till the end! 😜 Rahul Shivshankar of Times Now EMBARRASSES HIM...

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For a break from our serious moments and since a few people (Nicolas, Tatiana et al) have been asking about India's behaviour at the UN, thought to share. 'I am McAdams' is trending on Indian twitter for a few days now. First I thought it was a comic sketch or some deep fake but it is real (Apologies if you already saw it - this is the youtube version). 😆 Watch till the end! 😜 Rahul Shivshankar of Times Now EMBARRASSES HIMSELF 😂	😆 Watch till the end! 😜 Rahul Shivshankar of Times Now EMBARRASSES HIM...

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM6zIf7cTHE

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First, huge most sincere thank you for your willingness to look at Oxana's works - I will send to you tonight!

Second. Yes of course. I agree with all your arguments. This is exactly why I suggest an embargo on OIL ‎not gas. You see, oil is fungible (pretty much). There is no "share of Russian oil" in Europe - as opposed of gas which indeed arrives to the houses of the Europeans  directly from Russia. This is why oil is easy... my view.

‎That said, not buying Russian oil and exiting major Russian projects is very different and much more complicated. This is regarding the articles Marek shared today. For Total, Shell and Exxon to exit major Russian developments which they either operate (Exxon) or are very involved with (Total) is a very, very bad decision. These are world class but very complicated developments (otherwise the Russian companies would have done it all on their own); located in Sakhalin (!!! Seismically unstable) and the North of Russia. The likely very real outcome of these exits would be major environmental disasters which will of course affect the world not just Russia. Our planet.

Also, we all hope and pray that the dictator does not last long. Revitalising these developments would take years...

And as for Danone, this is food. Tatiana is so right in saying that the Russians at the moment do not understand what is happening - let's cut the funds inflow which is supporting the military; but closing down food production I think is different.

Very sorry if all this is a bit too technical (oil vs gas and oil trading vs major developments) but these are all real life issues.

And thank you again and again to all of you

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Наташа, please share a link to your friend’s work!

On the question of oil, I think it’s not as black and white as you suggest.

It’s not easy to create a quick, coordinated, dramatic response from the US and the EU (or even just from the EU)…. And for the moment perhaps keeping that trickle of trade alive is a more effective approach, for a few reasons…

You mention the share of Russian oil in the world’s supply … what is the figure for the EU? What is the figure for Germany in particular, and for the other countries bordering Russia?  There’s only so much sacrifice you can demand of other Europeans before it becomes politically untenable. Today the people in those countries are moved enough by the plight of the Ukrainian refugees to act, and in some places, worried enough about their own safety, to make sacrifices themselves. They have a huge number of refugees to pay for along with massive business losses and surging energy prices, not to mention financial market losses. The middle classes in these countries are already shouldering a heavy financial burden in the name of sanctions. But will their empathy and resolve prove strong enough to withstand a prolonged economic contraction of their own? In Europe, I expect the political risk of a complete ban of Russian oil  (especially while the temperatures are still chilly) might be just too high.

No-one has mentioned Hungary. Akos, can you share what the mood/rhetoric is there? The mechanics of EU voting rules are a bit of a mystery to me, but we all know that Orban has been a difficult parter in the EU.

Using a complete ban now also means there would be little non- military leverage left, if the west wants to tighten the screws in the coming weeks.

Also, let’s not lose sight of the Russian victims of this conflict. They are, for the most part, completely ignorant of what’s really happening. The vast majority believe there is no major crisis, have no idea of the reality in Ukraine, get no western sourced information, and don’t believe the first hand accounts they get directly from Ukrainian resident friends and relatives. But they will soon be suffering the economic consequences, and they - who can least afford it - will bear the brunt of those consequences. We all are aware of this problem with sanctions as a tool for political influence…. And also I’m sure, are aware of the potentially dangerous and unanticipated political results of forcing a country into destitution (the rise of Hitler in post-WWI Germany.) If we completely crush the life out of Russia’s economy, the collateral damage might be even more terrible than losing Ukraine to Russia.

I think it’s a balancing act, and the tools are far from perfect. And we cannot expect the Russian “people” to do anything about Putin today. Nobody wants to create a second North Korea. My guess is that US/EU policy makers are hoping that they can cause enough pain to the richest Russians, who feed Putin’s biggest coffers, so that he has to choose between buying/making new weapons and keeping the trains running. And in so doing, will at least deter Putin from going after Moldova, and the Baltics. And maybe save the poor Ukrainians from Siberia (to which he’s probably hoping to shepherd them, through his proposed safe passage corridors.)

😔

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Dear Nicolas, dear all,I am grateful for ALL emails - and I just want to hug Marek and every Ukrainian...But somehow, every single word in Nicolas' note truly resonates.While I love my country and the Russian people and the culture, the ONLY way (sorry to repeat myself) are truly decisive severe sanctions. Until and unless the criminal dictator runs out of money, we will all suffer. I think Tamara asked about Navalny (the brave opposition leader who is jailed). He is brave. Any opposition voice matters. We have supported him all these years, every month. BUT let's also be clear. His following is what - 2-3 per cent of the population? The rest have had a comfortable life (supported by oil and gas proceeds), and are fooled by the state propaganda. And so in complete agreement with Nicolas, while the propaganda will not stop (in fact, it will get much more aggressive), we all need to stop the flow of funds which helps the dictator bribe the Russian people and finance the military.It is so easy. Much easier than agreeing on the no fly zone. And so what I do not get (truly) is why, why is it taking so long to ban the Russian oil??? The good news is that right now it is getting practically impossible to load any cargo since the ships avoid both the Southern and the Northern Russian ports, concerned that they will not find the off-takers in the Western ports. These are truly great news. But still, why not simply ban it all???As a former energy banker (and now a mother of an energy boy), Russian oil is hardly critical for the world energy balance. It may course some short term volatility but no more than that. The crude market is diversified and relatively flexible; with the mid term high elasticity demand.Gas is a different matter (for Europe) but less important for Russian hard currency balances. So as a moral issue, I insist on the complete ban (we are in March not October!). But economically, this is much less important than oil.Ah sorry to sound so pationate (and so primitive/non analytical compared to Soren's intellectual analysis which I am grateful for). But we all just lost our country. I am running a talk show here in London on Wednesday, and I know that after I will not be able to go to Russia until the regime changes. But none of my troubles, sorrow and despair come close to what each Ukrainian displaced family is living through. Thank you all. Marek many hugs to you. Let's hope and pray that the madman does not last long.N
PS. One of our closest friends, the most prominent contemporary Ukrainian artist Oxana Mas lives in Spain. She is currently hosting 10 families. She is ready to take in more - just in case you are aware of someone who needs shelter in Spain. She needs a few thousand per month to feed her little camp. We are helping but she resists as thinks we have done too much already. If any of you want to see her works (paintings which are amazing!), she would be incredibly grateful - and that would keep her going! ‎Just one small way to support one extraordinary person who supports others - I thought I would mention? She is world class. Her works sold at Christie's and she represented Ukraine in Venice but paintings are very reasonably priced. Much love to all

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Indeed reading the China Daily Hong Kong on the topic reads like La Pravda. It is all the Russian propaganda (read lies) copied word for word. Invading a sovereign country with 200 000 soldiers is not an invasion or a war; it is a "special military operation". Every media and NGO which has people on the ground reports that the Russian army is shelling civilians like crazy but reading this article you'd believe Poutin is a saint who only wants to protect civilians. I guess Poutin does not control his army very well.
There are plenty of places where you can find reasonable reporting and compare : if you stay local, scmp seems to report the facts OK. If you find the Economist of FT too right wing try the Guardian or The Independent (which both hate Boris Johnson's guts so cannot be accused of being too much pro UK government). Le Monde if you want to test your Insead French level 3 (or Google translate), Der Spiegel,.... And if you don't want Western, try aljazeera....

Marek is doing a totally incredible job on the ground (like so many poles, hail to Poland). He also did an excellent job at explaining why central and eastern European countries that got invaded at some point by USSR or Russia want to be part of Nato. Not to attack Russia, but to protect themselves from Russia given its recent history and its incredible propensity to attack and send tanks to its neighbouring countries. It is so sad because after the fall of the wall there was a strong hope for peaceful integration of Russia within Europe, but obviously latest actions will only make things 200% worse.
I do believe the West has been often incredibly complacent regarding Poutin. All would be dictators at some point resort to nationalism and external aggression to keep in power. For Europe to create such a dependency on Russia for energy was incredibly short sighted. As Sorein highlighted, leaders also passed all the wrong signals at the beginning of the crisis : Biden, Draghi and others passing the message that if it was a small invasion, the west would not make such a big deal. It made rational sense probably for politicians, but when you face a bully, if you give an inch.... Hopefully Poutin has miscalculated, by launching this huge invasion he has shown his true face, united Europe, waken up some countries to the fact that they need to step up and be responsible for their own security. And he has created a stronger than ever demand for Nato membership.
The UN resolution condemning the invasion was adopted with 141 votes in favor out of 193 (with only 5 voting against including Russia). I guess that says a lot about how most of the world feels about this invasion. Amongst the ones that abstained, two stick out and feel incredibly disappointing. - India, as it is, as Jan highlighted, the largest democracy in the world- China, as it this invasion goes directly against the principle it has always put forward as its main foreign policy mantra : that countries should always respect other countries' sovereignty
I don't know if China has no choice but try to sound neutral because of the way the West has portrayed the Chinese system...I actually believe China has a choice and chose realpolitik over principles (which often happens in diplomacy as Sorein said). Even if this goes against every principle of China's policy, even if China has experienced in the past Russia's tendency to want to expend, they decided that every enemy of my enemy is my friend, no matter how distasteful his behavior. Unfortunately this will just further the west's impression that China cannot be trusted, and will to do everything to gain more power.

Last but not least, coming back to your musicians and refugees. Only Russians can fix Russia short of world war 3 (in other words Armageddon). For this, they need to get rid of Putin (who has been in power for over 20 years if I am correct), and hopefully elect a leader that will focus on making the average Russian wealthy and happy and not on lining his own pockets and the one of a small number of friends and political allies (while telling the average Russia that he is going the restore Russia's "grandeur"). So you need change. And change comes only from dissatisfaction with the current situation. Russians won't get dissatisfied from watching the news (which is now 100% state controlled), but might get dissatisfied if shelves in supermarket are empty, if football teams cannot play anymore internationally or if their musicians get their concerts cancelled. Keeping in mind that these kinds of strategies can backfire and that older people have been used to it under USSR (but not younger ones), it worked once under Gorbatchev, maybe it can work again. I don't think anyone has a better idea anyway.

As for refugees from Ukraine, I hope and am quite sure many countries will take them (including why not Canada and Australia). This is a totally different situation from HK young people going to Canada and Australia, for whom I think the right question is why do they feel that need to emigrate.

Sorry to everyone for the long email, I am usually not a big contributor to these email chains. So for once in a while I have to let myself go.....

Amitiés à tous and un très grand bravo again for everything Marek is doing.

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Dear Marek and all,

Thanks so much for sharing your views and insights
Here in Hong Kong, we can access the western media such as FT/CNN/the Economists with the Chinese media such as the China Daily.
However, we have received very opposite views and that confuses us a lot. I felt that it is hard to trust any media.

During the 2019 HK "movement" (i don't know what is the politically correct way to classify it ), the two sides provided completely different views.

I am very glad to hear from you all to give me a more genuine view.   No matter what, applying force on another sovereign state is wrong. Killing civilians is wrong and shall be punished.  Even though the Chinese media repeated Putin's rationale, to us, he is still more WRONG than the others.

China has no choice but try to sound neutral because the West has portrayed the Chinese system as a dictatorship system and a.k.a evil.  I think this is wrong. Recently I met a French INSEAD alumni David Baverez. He graduated few years before us. He gave me a copy of his book China & Europe , The Turning Point.  He has correctly pointed out that the Chinese system is another way of selection. The man at the top has absolute power but was selected via years of elections/selections process.   So we should not assume the western system is the best for all. The man on top via this system, thus is very capable.  Brian, yes while I still very much wanted our lost democracy back in HK, I can also understand why such a system is more efficient / applicable to us. We had argued so much between 1997-2019 that the society did not advance. Now everything seems more efficient.  Our poverty and land issues are at least being tackled.

China has no choice but to stay away from US because it is US who takes hostile positions via its contain China policies ...banning Chinese technologies, and selling weapons to Taiwan etc etc.  One thing I still vividly remember was the usually quiet me criticizing the guest speaker in our international politics lecture on the US contain China policy.    It is very hard for us not to believe the real motive of the US  is 1). to maintain its world leadership position 2) sell more weapons to make money.

I don't believe China is an ally of Russia. Chinese was treated really badly in 60s by the USSR.  However it does not want to be used by the West either.

Back to Ukraine, I think rich countries such as Canada and Australia should take up some Ukrainians. Many of them are highly skilled in technology and arts. This is a great opportunity to fill the countries' aging gap ... instead of taking up immigration from HK (we only have 7.8mil people) recently.

I am a board member of an international music organization.  We are supposed to host our tri-annual world event in St Petersburg in 2024. Our board will have a board meeting this week. It is highly unlikely that we will not host this event in Russia any more. However I still hope that we will not  punish the fine Russian musicians.   Regime and its people should be treated differently.

INSEAD has an email that listed how we can help Ukraine.

Take very good care and let's hope we can go back to 25 years ago where the world seems to be more peaceful.

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Cannot really use the phrase 'good morning'...
The number of refugees in Poland alone (OK, we're #1...) has just passed the treshold of one million... :( Much faster than I thought...
Thank you all for joining in, your active support, voices in discussion, etc.
The worst is surely yet to come, the numbers will grow. Helping the refugees is one thing, but my prediction is that quite soon we will see Russian troops at the Polish (Slovak, Hungarian, Romanian and Moldovian) border, effectively cutting-off those unfortunate ones, and I'm talking almost exclusively women and children, who will then get trapped. The 'humanitarian corridors' already are not all too effective, as being shot at. :( Also Russian troops are not allowing the civilians out in numerous cities. The 'air bridge' (see: West Berlin case last century) with closed skies may not be an option. One of the key 'front development' direction is also overtaking ukrainian Black Sea ports...
Any thoughts on how to help those, who would get cut-off at the second - occupation (and partizan war) stage we'll probably see within days, rather than weeks?
This also means that support for the refugees must be thought of as long-term, not an 'action'.
What are the chances to see the EU, local and regional authorities eg. ..., as we say in Poland, 'hitting two ducks in a single shot'?:Covid had a heavy toll on tourism, restaurants, etc. Does EU have funds and tools to, eg. in the first stage... support hotels and restaurants, so that they catter to the refugees and recover a bit in the same time? Can 'we' afford opening schools, initially teaching in Ukrainian and Russian (for the not aware ones: 30-80% of the refugees from the first-attacked territories would, paradoxically, be... Russian-speakers...) for, probably first 2-3 years, with heavy accent on teaching 'new home' language? Etc., etc.
Noone knows how many of the refugees will travel further into the EU, but a million, two or even three spread over hundreds of millions in the more wealthy western states won't do that much of a difference, but, say 3+ million more people in Poland or, say 500k more in a country like Slovak Rep. means suddenly 10% (!) higher population in a not all too reach a country only to begin with and just slowly digging out from 2 years of Covid-devastated economy...
Would EU 'chip in'? Would countries outside Europe, who were fortunate not to have war within their territories for a  century or two, and which are not exactly likely to be flooded with Ukrainian mothers-with-children, help?...

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First of all, thank you Marek for what you are doing, this is very impressive!

Thanks to all of you who are supporting the victims of this conflict

I am 100% supporting Ukraine and feel extremely sorry for the Russian population which has been embarked on this crazy and criminal adventure.

In these darkest hours, I do see some lights at the end of the tunnel:

Ukraine will survive – the past 10 days have seen a tremendous spirit of resistance and resilience by the vast majority of the Ukrainian population – their Independence will remain, contrary to back in 1922, when it was crushed by the Soviet Union

International support – there is massive international support (2/3 of the countries of the world) – only a handful of “rogue countries” have condemned the UN resolution against the invasion, but these are not very renowned for their democratic track record (North Korea, Eritrea, Syria …)  . There has been much more countries (~1/3, e.g. China, India …) non-voting, but this is due to either geopolitics or commercial interests. In spite of these interests, they could not afford to vote against the UN resolution – That shows you where the right side is (if you had any doubt …)

European Union is reinforced – I have been amazed by the strong, rapid and united decision of the European Union and all its members (even the countries which have the biggest vested interest in Russia – Germany, Italy and France) – I am sure that it will be seen as a key milestone in the construction on Europe (remember, Europe over the last 70 years has progressed mostly during crisis and this is a big one). The European Union is now reinforcing its external politics dimension along it economic and normative power

A paved way for Ukraine – Ukraine will join the European Union. Yes, it  will take some time – like for any new joiner, and as Ukrainian institutions and economy are not ready yet – but it will happen – most probably during at the end of this decade

A future for the Russian people -  We know that the majority of Russian do feel that they belong to the European culture – as they have been for the last 1000 years – they are attracted by the values that Europe has been demonstrating since the creation of the European Community – peace and prosperity. They have seen how this has been developed and nurtured over the last 2 decades in the former “brother countries” who have joined the UE and NATO.  Of course, this is seen as a major threat by the man in the Kremlin and this threat is reinforced by Ukraine shifting towards Europe.  I do think that it is just a matter of time, but Russia will eventually be part of Europe. Of course, it might take a generation (20-25 years), but it will happen definitely.

We just have to manage this transition in a smart way

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https://totalenergies.com/

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Thank you for your activity, your efforts, also - for your very warm and kind words of appreciation of my humble efforts.

Just a bunch of news that just hit my radar-screen (at random, just to cheer-up and food-for-thought):

- Dutch media (10 radio stations + NPO1 + RTL4) made on Monday a 'collection' raising ... 106 Mio EUR! I'm sure there are more initiatives like that. Great job!

- Boeing stopped purchasing Titanium from Russia. Major blow to their industry.

- Roscosmos kicked out of the Galileo programme.

- International Railway Union excludes Belarussian and Russian railways.

- Nissan halts production in St. Petersburg.

But (yes, there's usually some ', but...') - compare that with:

- Compare a one day of social generosity sparked by the media in the Netherlands - 106 Mio EUR with

723 Mio USD ( = what, some 672 Mio EUR?) ... in grants readied by ... the World Bank (!) - sure, nice that at least something, but set against the Dutch private, one-day fund-raising
or compared with 200 tons of food just one Polish stores' network contributed... one would expect more from the big institutions of this world, eh?

- Germany is not all too happy to ban Russian oil or gas...

- China seizes the opportunity and Chinese-Russian import/export has grown by two-digit numbers compared to the same period last year...

The bigger - the easier is to have your own policy and own interests, right...?

As promised, I'll also feed you from time to time with some personal observations on the subject. Today:

# On helping refugees to find a job.

Like in any other case, unfortunately during the troubled times - even more often, one can face some scavengers around. Only within a mere last 48 hours I've heard (I mean literally - in person-to-person or by phone contact) from my friends, colleagues and even the family in no less than three cases (compare that with the number of probably some 30, maybe 35 people altogether I spoke to in that time...) of ... Poles losing their jobs to an Ukrainian. All three cases were confirmed with the source of the information, as not being a gossip. One that hit me most, was the case of the mother of my son's class-mate (and the class is a mere 12 pupils, so again 1-out-of-12-or-so...) losing her job (better paid than the one of the father...) after 8 years, just to make place for a much, far less-paid Ukrainian.

Surely it's not the poor (literally, as they have little or even less secured and taken along when fleeing from shot-at home...) Ukrainian to be blamed. She is happy to earn money for bread for her and kid (or kids) in tow, happy to find not only shelter, but also source of income in the country that embraced her. But what about the local, Polish worker, ousted just to lower the costs of the greedy entrepreneur? In the decade where CSR has spread throughout the world...

So, if you are arranging jobs for the refugees - please, make sure these jobs are created, not stolen from locals, as this would be short-termism and would ignite tensions and hatriot against the incoming refugees. Let's source money from The Bugdet to create jobs in the new 'industry of helping the incomers' (language training, translations, assistance centers, etc.), supported refugees would be able to help next waves yet having income and releasing a bit the volunteers who also have jobs to do and families to feed. Look around which economy branches are understaffed - there will be a lot of qualified work-force coming, you may see a lot of these moms with diplomas and PhD's, help them in nostrification of their credentials. Etc., etc.

And, by all means, condemn and denounce scroogy acts of 'oh, here comes cheap labor - I can save lots of money now'. They benefit only these businesses and they won't share the savings. And, needless to say it is bad, very bad, for local communities, where being felt as literally stealing someone's bread isn't exactly what you'd like to be accused of... Costs' cutting is a natural thing in business, OK, but please, not at any expense and not 'riding on the war'. We're not in the XIX century industrialism era.

Let's meet and greet them, let's host them, let's help them, let's help them to help themselves (fish first, but then a fishing-rod...), but let's do that all in a socially-smart manner, not feeding animosities and tensions. It would be a salt on the wound if one day we host them, feed them, on the second day we secure them a job if on a third day they end-up beaten by a local now-jobless or a kid in school will hear 'your parents stole work from my parents'... That's not the way to do it...

So much from the 'out post Poland' at the moment. Back with you to answer any questions/comments or if something new pops-up or comes to my mind.

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Dear Nicolas, dear all,

I am grateful for ALL emails - and I just want to hug

Marek and every Ukrainian...

But somehow, every single word in Nicolas' note truly resonates.

While I love my country and the Russian people and the culture, the ONLY way (sorry to repeat myself) are truly decisive severe sanctions. Until and unless the criminal dictator runs out of money, we will all suffer.

I think Tamara asked about Navalny (the brave opposition leader who is jailed). He is brave. Any opposition voice matters. We have supported him all these years, every month. BUT let's also be clear. His following is what - 2-3 per cent of the population? The rest have had a comfortable life (supported by oil and gas proceeds), and are fooled by the state propaganda.

And so in complete agreement with Nicolas, while the propaganda will not stop (in fact, it will get much more aggressive), we all need to stop the flow of funds which helps the dictator bribe the Russian people and finance the military.

It is so easy. Much easier than agreeing on the no fly zone. And so what I do not get (truly) is why, why is it taking so long to ban the Russian oil??? The good news is that right now it is getting practically impossible to load any cargo since the ships avoid both the Southern and the Northern Russian ports, concerned that they will not find the off-takers in the Western ports. These are truly great news. But still, why not simply ban it all???

As a former energy banker (and now a mother of an energy boy), Russian oil is hardly critical for the world energy balance. It may course some short term volatility but no more than that. The crude market is diversified and relatively flexible; with the mid term high elasticity demand.

Gas is a different matter (for Europe) but less important for Russian hard currency balances. So as a moral issue, I insist on the complete ban (we are in March not October!). But economically, this is much less important than oil.

Ah sorry to sound so pationate (and so primitive/non analytical compared to Soren's intellectual analysis which I am grateful for). But we all just lost our country. I am running a talk show here in London on Wednesday, and I know that after I will not be able to go to Russia until the regime changes.

But none of my troubles, sorrow and despair come close to what each Ukrainian displaced family is living through.

Thank you all. Marek many hugs to you. Let's hope and pray that the madman does not last long.

N

PS. One of our closest friends, the most prominent contemporary Ukrainian artist Oxana Mas lives in Spain. She is currently hosting 10 families. She is ready to take in more - just in case you are aware of someone who needs shelter in Spain. She needs a few thousand per month to feed her little camp. We are helping but she resists as thinks we have done too much already. If any of you want to see her works (paintings which are amazing!), she would be incredibly grateful - and that would keep her going! ‎Just one small way to support one extraordinary person who supports others - I thought I would mention? She is world class. Her works sold at Christie's and she represented Ukraine in Venice but paintings are very reasonably priced. Much love to all

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Jess, great that you and your family are already involved. Along the lines of earlier messages - you perceive it right - better to sponsor a bus, than go for a 2x 24hrs trip in person, with a smaller car. Value-for-money, value-for-resources (time, personnel, ...) spent. Secondly - logistics - yesterday, when I was at the Warsaw West Railway Station the 1,5 km radius looked like a parking lot of the SuperBowl stadium, just going mad. Thirdly - if one speaks Polish (Slovak, Hungarian or Romanian) - languages not all too popular among us, right? - and/or Ukrainian or Russian - you, yourself ... do not need help (orientation, translation, accomodation, catering) on-site yourself... But, if you don't?... Noble, but ineffective.

Bottom-line:
You can do more good where you are based. You won't waste resources (not to mention burning extra fuel that may originally come from the-pipeline-that-you-know...), sending a bus you can take more people while polluting the atmosphere less, you don't risk a car accident of a tired-by-then family member, who can in turn do more good locally, than him/herself at some hospital in Germany or Poland. You can spend money otherwise used for fuel for a better cause. Last, but not least - locally you know people, from ordinary citizens you can get involved, perhaps to authorities' members, politicians, local activists.

Working in your own environment you'll be more effective.

Also - you are seeing it already - the first wave of refugees reaches more distant destinations. And being where you are you can help them better, than being somewhere in the Carpatian mountain ranges. And you are already helping. Locally. Which is great!

On the Carpatian mountains - one drop in the ocean, but let me share my happiness and small personal success - remember my yesterday's message on Sighet (UA/Romanian border strip...)? Using LinkedIn I've tapped another network - AIESEC alumni (for the ones that are not familiar - student association) looking up total strangers, but ex-AIESECers located in Romania, cold-call asking whether they happen to know anybody in that region. Phone numbers have been exchanged, contacts made and...

my Ukrainian friend back a couple of years from the CSR course at Svenska Instituted, escaping (no car...) with her 14yrs old daughter was met at the Carpathian section of the border to the Red Cross, who in turn assisted them (and other refugees hiking along) to the first train station within the EU. Within 12 hrs they'll be in Bucuresti and then off to Sweden, where she's already got a job arranged for her. Both safe on this side of the border as of an hour ago. Physically, luckily unhurt, but emotionally shaken beyond comprehension of people never shot at in their own home, city, country...

No need to tell how much positive loading is such, even a drop-in-the-ocean (two + some extra among millions) to load batteries to keep going.

Let's add-up here and there such drops over the oncoming days, weeks and months, multiplied by dozens of us, next dozens of our families, friends and friends of friends and total strangers we can get involved.

Remember - if you have or are about to have some refugees on board - think about finding jobs for adults (ideally - payable, if not - involving them in helping next waves), daycare/school for kids. They all appreciate your help, but they are strong and proud people, they would be grateful by all means but they would be even more happy not to burden you as soon as possible.

Let me give you an example - another Ukrainian friend of mine, targeting stay near Krakow at 'almost family' (god-mother of her child) nevertheless considers it as temporary, as she believes her contacts in Germany and knowledge of the language (she doesn't speak Polish) would enable her to quickly find a job and ... she doesn't want to be a burden, even on relatives for too long, no matter how happy they are to help her/them. Don't be surprised by such reactions. Don't accidentally mistake it for lack of thankfulness.

I gather by now most of you managed to find some local initiative, donated to some of the ones I've shared with you and/or helped directly somehow. I'm of course still open to any questions you may have.

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> Hi Jessica!
>
> Thanks for coming back. The message was prompted by me knowing the person in question (my colleague from Svenska Instituted CSR course) - mom with 14yrs old daughter targetting Carpathian path - to Romania. So the direct answer would be 'no less than two I know off, including one personally and with no car'.
>
> Then, I've tapped to my another network - AIESEC alumni, got one number, got information brochure in Ukrainian how Romania is helping, third reply with info that on the EU side there are volunteers working, how their cars are marked, etc.
>
> So,
>
> 1. I still have no status update / no current location from the two, but if they were safe in EU, I'm sure they'd immediately report that all excited. So, so far the alert is still on as far, as I'm concerned.
>
> 2. Volunteers there or not, surely worth for your contact(s) to check-in with locals and see whether any extra pair of hands may be needed on site.
>
> 3. As the situation progresses (well, deteriorates would be more appropriate word perhaps...) there may be increasing need in remote/rural areas, to assist the border controll and army units in taking care and transiting of the ones who'd cross the 'wild parts' of the border, as as soon as the Russian troops reach 'the end strips of Ukraine' border points may... or may not be opened to refugees.
>
> Do you mind if we share this with the entire class? Question was 'Sighet-specific' originally yesterday, but we should perhaps broaden it, to include 'any contacts in eastern Slovakia, Hungary, Romania or Moldova'?...
>
> Big hug from Polish out post!
> Marek

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Dear Marek, thank you so much for opening this discussion and of course for what you are doing.  Thank you for having the courage to express how it has affected you as a man and as a human.  Your email will make a difference to the acts of help and kindness each of us may move towards inspired by your witness.  I have sat frozen in horror this week, for all my language skills and intimate knowledge of the area and its history which holds 50% of my heritage, I feel helpless to help and helpless against the cruelty but at least I can distribute a few links here:

On what we can do, I would like to also highlight the Austrian INSEAD initiative that I received an email about from the UK alumni association

https://unicef.at/insead/

There is a Zoom call by the UK alumni assoc organised to elucidate further.  It’s Monday March 7th at 5.30pm CET, this seems to be the link https://zoom.us/s/4353705617

The youtube channel made in the name of Navalny (poisoned and jailed opposition politician) is trying to get the other side of the story distributed in Russia https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgxTPTFbIbCWfTR9I2-5SeQ/join - I hope the use of money will be genuine but I couldn’t promise – one thing they say they are doing with funds is trying to pay the fines of the very brave protesters who get arrested in Russia.  Maybe Natasha can comment further on if this sponsorship money can genuinely go to help the Russian resistance?

Angela, it was thought-provoking to hear your questions based on what you are hearing.  China holds the most cards it seems to me.  The ones Putin calls a special friend, much to profit from a Russia that must look East for trade and a Europe that relies on it to broker peace.  Not so much 1930s as 1230s (when Kievan Rus was destroyed and the East subjugated the Russian princelings for centuries with a divide and rule strategy).

I’d also like to ask a question to those of us in the oil and gas industries.  There’s a call going around social media for people to reduce their personal oil and gas consumption as part of the effort – turn down heating, drive less etc.  I was wondering if that would make any difference at all or if a very small reduction in personal consumer use would hardly touch the sides of the usage?

So much more I want to say of what I have borne witness to and what I have shouted into the void but I will leave it at that for today to try and keep to what is useful in the here and now. To have the luxury of understanding how we got here, we’ve got to try and escape it first.

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Am sure you knew that already, Tatiana and it is only a typo in the 2nd para (ignoring one-liners) but just for the record before Hermish or Rajshree or any one else of our class from India (I am not Indian) feel they need to say it: India is the world's largest democracy (not a dictatorship as suggested).

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Thank you Marek, Natasha, and the rest for your notes.

I’m in-between farm chores and will need more time & focus to tackle Soren’s analysis… 😳

Yes, yes, yes to all of the past US/European failures to manage Putin’s aggressions (very nice letter from the Lithuanian prime minister in the Economist summarizes the history). But today, as then, there’s not an obvious, easy, way to stop him. I think that Lithuanian lady said “democracy dies in silence” and Putin has very effectively silenced the Russian people. And it’s a long cultural analysis that will address whether Russian, with their huge territory and specific cultural proclivities, could have avoided a dictatorship after the disintegration of the USSR. I don’t think there’s any real hope, today, at this moment, for Russians to stand up to Putin. Until his death, I personally don’t see any change there.

But I do think these sanctions, and more of the same, and the unified outpouring of related business-world responses (closing of business/industry investments and shops and shipping and supplies of everything from the west) has a chance of hurting Putin enough - in the short term - to make a difference for Ukraine. In the longer term, if Russia finds itself completely isolated from the west, it will integrate more deeply with China & India and the other dictatorships around here world. But in the short run, it sounds like the impact is big - small/medium/large businesses are all paralyzed, and very soon, the economy will essentially collapse.

And, as a European American, with Russian roots that go very deep, I’ll tell you that I’m very very proud this time, of the Western world’s response to the crisis.

But I think Germany is the potentially weakest link in this allied response. For the moment it is saying the right things, and it seems willing to take on the most risk - energy and business integration with Russia goes very deep there. How long will they manage to keep it up, even if the US, and Arab state allies, help?

So question to our German classmates - what’s the mood about this in Germany? How strong do you think the resolve is?

With love -

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Natasha,
I also want to thank you for your words and actions. It must be dangerous to oppose Putin both from within Russia and if you are Russian, then from abroad, while still having friends and family there. Very few of us, other than the Ukrainians and their neighbours (such as Marek) have so much personally at stake in speaking out, even within our small circle.
Your thoughts also consolidate and help clarify mine: each of these steps have built upon the other, sanctions (and indeed all politics) are a long game, and you have rightly dis-invested at the earlier stages and pointed out some of the many steps that led to this moment. Building on your thoughts, if cluster munitions are being used now in Ukraine, then this builds on the use of chemical weapons in Syria and indeed Russian manufactured cluster munitions were bought and used in the genocide against my own people in 2009. Personally I think the use of thermobarric weapons is in itself a sufficient point of principle for Ukrainian allies to help establish a no fly zone, not necessarily in the name of Nato (which will be seen as expansionist) but perhaps bilaterally.
I am also really glad that you call for stronger sanctions. I think that is right: so often these are symbolic acts, and just not strong enough. There are plenty of instances when people who would be the most negatively impacted by sanctions have called for them: the South African independence movement called for sanctions, both economic and sporting, against the apartheid regime, even though the people who would most have been hurt were the poorest of the black South African communities. Yet eventually sanctions served to undermine the regime. (I still have not forgotten how our very own Mrs Thatcher was a big opponent of sanctions at that time). I can spend a lot of time on the logic and imperative of sanctions but I wont right now. I believe sanctions will help consolidate a broader opposition within Russia which is much needed but even if that was not known, I would stand by the moral imperative. To Roger's earlier question: is it only to keep your conscience clear? well, even that is a start.
Ultimately change can only come from within Russia. That in itself is an extremely dangerous moment. I cannot pretend I have confidence that our government or any other ones will be act to protect opponents of Putin. I think it is very brave the some Russians are calling for protests even from within prison. The closer the Russian leader gets to defeat, the more dangerous it becomes for his internal opponents. I assume the 'international community' will do more to protect dissidents in Russia than they did for the Kurds who rose up against Saddam, but who can know for sure.
That said, we as a global community must all do our part, however small and even if it is 'just sanctions' or helping refugees and where we have political influence, we can go further.
Jan

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Soren, Matthiew, Hermish,

Busy writing my elaborate I haven't included your messages. So, in brief: Soren, as usual, fantastic and extensive analysis, thanks. Matt, Hermish - I do agree - in the XXI'st century, with all the nukes around and rockets getting faster - who cares whether a missile will hit you in 3 minutes, instead of 6, just because the launcher platform is now 500km closer!? A bull-shit and an excuse. But cutting this short: I gather, majority of us would agree who's right and in need and who's wrong-doing and is the invader and aggressor, and I guess we all would agree help is needed. So, while I'm still open for questions along the lines 'why', 'how come' and alike, let's try to shift a bit towards activities, how to help. Natasha - once again kudos for already being active in that field.

To get us organized a bit:

If you cannot find locally, where you are currently based, a local organization, here you go, to get you started:
https://donate.unhcr.org/int/en/ukraine-emergency?

https://www.unfpa.org/donate/Ukraine-a?

https://www.rescue.org/article/how-can-i-help-ukraine

https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/countries/ukraine

https://redcross.org.ua/en/donate/?

https://www.unicef.org/ukraine/en

If you want to help the refugees in Poland (we're getting close to one million of them...) - let me know and I'll send you some 'local' - Polish tips.

Run through your contacts and see - maybe you have some Ukrainian friends. They'd be absolutely happy to see your thoughts being with them. They may be OK and decline help, but they may be in need thereof. But always be happy to see/hear a good word. Rather write, than phone. Connections may be unreliable, they may not be in a position to answer a call...

If you're in a country that already can see refugees (Germany, Hungary, Austria, ...?) - try to help locally, see whether you can help at the train stations, information points if already organized. Help mothers find jobs, help kids find a bit of normality - school, day care, sport or art activities, etc. But do remember - if you don't speak Ukrainian or Russian - you'll do more good and bring more help 'from the back office' than 'at the front line'... :)

Do organize and participate in collections - food and other daily-needs supplies, med-supplies, but try to check what at any given time is 'on the top of the needed list'.

Spread the word, engage others.

That's to get us started.

Some examples from Poland, where the refugees already are:

- information points,

- legal assistance,

- translation help,

- temporary housing and catering.

Some less obvious:

- free language training,

- school and daycare for kids,

- sport clubs and cultural centers arranging free-of-charge activities for kids,

- public transport and trains in Poland are now free-of-charge upon presenting Ukrainian passport (downside - it excludes other nationalities escaping, but still - helps the large majority...).

I've heard about individuals arranging local collections and just driving over to Poland to bring supplies to help centers. Great thing to do. But no one is expecting a lot individual actions like that - probably you can arrange more goodies within 48 hours, than you can drive-in with a small van during the time you spent behind the wheel. :)

YRS,
Marek

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Indeed “buffer zone is ridiculous for the largest surface and sparsely populated country on the world with a GDP equal to that is Spain. Who wants to invade it?? It’s like Canada asking for buffer zone from US.

It’s always the same story with brutal paranoid dictators, first they emerge from chaotic situations and appear as saviours or liberators, then they buy the support of cronies that loot the country and finally realising they are ruining the country and loosing support they start a “patriotic war” to stay in power at all cost…ultimately one of the key advantages of democracies (that is still is far from perfect) is that when people loose power they write books and lecture at conferences, in dictatorship loosing power means death and disgrace …all by the playbook I am afraid, but this times with Nukes and oil …indeed the west was acomplice profiting from oligarchs richness…wake up call was long due

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Thank you for 'chipping in'. Actually a very big part of this and 'how we can help' is to have an understanding of what and why is happening and spreading the word. Eg. I've already seen some respectable and renowned news sources in Europe having to rectify their reports - one French TV channel initially showed a map of helping countries ... w/o Poland on it, even the BBC had a small misfortune thereafter running the full footage of a non-Ukrainian refugee in Poland...

So, let me try one-by-one:

Angela, Roger,
Thank you very much for the questions - that's exactly what I'm writing about above. DO (!) ask questions! Let me try to briefly address them:

1. The rationale of the war is due to the expansion of NATO
NATO and the then-communist-block have always (Cold War...) been adversaries. With liberation and de-communisation movements the 'block' fell apart. Ultimately the Russian empire has fallen apart, independent countries, like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Georgia ... and, among others - Ukraine gained independence and came back to the map of Europe. Russian troops were 'kindly asked to leave' our territories and after decades of occupation or quasi-occupation majority of eastern european countries opted for international co-operation and possible independence from Russia, hence - joining (or willing to join, like Ukraine) the EU, NATO and other European and international organizations.

While I do understand the position and argumentation of people like Putin ('if I were in their shoes'...) - they feel threatened, engulfed, but ... foremost they'd like 'the old THEIR-good times to be back',

I do stand for freedom and independence.

Russia has 12 time zones, the entire Mendeleyev table sitting underground, all the energy sources (coal, gas, oil, Uranium, sun, large rivers, ...), it's just ... its Tsars ... want MORE, MOOORE, MOOOOOORE! More territory (already being the largest country in the world), more power.

And the rationale and war action based on it ... actually makes a reverse effect. Europe is more united than ever, Ukraine warned no to make an attempt to join the Western neighbours - well the EU-application process, has just been kick-started. Putin is warning Finland and Sweden (neutral...) not to even think of joining NATO - guess what - seeing what happened to the not-protected-by-NATO Ukraine, first time ever the majority of Swedes would vote FOR joining NATO!

2. Biden actually likes this war to happen because that will stop european‘s reliance on Russian energy and the contain Russia.

I cannot tell 'what Biden wants' - maybe our US friends could enlighten us with their local knowledge, but Europe should and must end reliance on Russian oil and gas. As long as Puting and his buddies make money on them they can finance that war. Come-on - ain't it a terrible joke? Million of refugees, bombed houses, hospitals, kindergardens and ... the pipelines are intact, gas and oil flows as if nothing happened. Gas, oil flow west, monnies flow East. Bank sanctions? SWIFT cut-off? Hahaha! With two big banks excluded from the sanctions, because ... they are the clearing banks for oil and gas transactions... :/

3. Some small group of Ukrainie came to HK in 2019 and taught our young people to make this m. cocktail and made our city a mess.  Their objectives was to promote the seperatism of HK.

Here I would have no knowledge whether this is true, false, fake news, reality or provocation. Actually - never heard of that. Perhaps too local news? Perhaps too small and isolated incident? Sorry - never hit my radar-screed. Cannot help you to judge on it. Plus, personally ... I prefer not to comment with my own opinion, as I have personal experience from such times, on reliability of the news sources if censorship is in place...

4. Why can US use the word “liberation” to justify their use of forces and other countries ‘s actions are “invasion”. Why is US always right.

Well again question for our US colleagues. My opinion - yes, US may every now and then self-sanction itself as the liberator, but the truth is ... it should be UN's and its forces role. The problem is - look at the permanent Security Council permanent members' structure... Russia has own interests, China would back Russia up or at least stay neutral - UN has no chance to perform its functions, so someone's got to do it. Looking at US interventions, yes - sometimes it's a bit odd, but in most cases they try to bring the democracy. At least in theory, as they sometimes seem to forget that not every nation, not to mention a ... tribe in some odd part of the Earth is ... mentally ready for such a thing like democracy. So, in my opinion, no - US is not always right, but they seem to be right much more often than be wrong and usually liberating the nations from local or neighbour tyrants. In comparison, the situation in Ukraine is awfully similar to late 1930's in Europe, where a certain Austrian fellow with moustache claimed to be only trying to help the Germans residing in the neighboring, independent countries. And, sadly, no powerful country stopped him, until it was too late.

Natasha - your point: Georgia, Crimea - no reaction. No meaningful reaction. Sadly...

And it's already quite a few years since US had a military conflict with its neighbour - Mexico. I know some nations think centuries-and-millennia-backwards. Around here there are still alive people remembering WWII. I'm not going back to before WWII and I don't say Szczecin should be German, because it never really was Polish and I'm not saying either that Lviv and Vilnius should again be within Poland. With Ukraininians we neve really had too friendly and neighbourly relations, but I don't hate them for that, as perhaps we weren't either not to be blamed eg. back in 1600's...? After WWII the borders were not always drawn too fortunately, the Soviet empire thereafter suppressed the nations within its range. But then the Soviet system collapsed, brutally in the Balkans, more peacefully in the Baltics, but the east and south European nations finally got back their land and freedom. Here we hate tyrans, we don't like to be oppressed, we don't accept occupation. We believe in unions of nations and co-operation. It IS and aggression and invasion of the neighbouring country.

5. We don’t quite understand why can‘t Ukraine declare its state of political neutrality, just like Finland or Switzerland so they are not to offend the Russian.

For the same reason, why Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia or Georgia don't believe in such a thing like a safe neutrality when having a large, unpredictable neighbour. We have all been 'part of the empire'. I've been a young teenager seeing tanks on the streets, distributing underground flyers and ... we knew how to do a Molotov's cocktail. And I remember the times, when I had to come to the censor's office to get approval for the mere brochure of the student tourism scientific club and when we didn't own our passports... We are, each country alone too small to feel safe against such a huge neighbour, a neighbour having a certain history behind it (we were three times before the WWI and once during the WWII invaded by Russia, not to mention suppression during the comunism era...). We want to be a part of a larger group, a power that can be a reasonable counter-balance and acting as a deterrent...

Ask the same question to Finnish and Swedes - always neutral? No longer - after seeing what happened to Ukraine now. First time in history there's more Swedes voting for joining NATO than those against it. Why would they want to stay neutral risking the same fate.

Hope that this gets you started.

Natasha

- A BIIIIIG THANK YOU! For your comments, for your words, for your opinion and for your actions. And for all of you - it's important that you understand - we (Poles, or even Ukrainians) do NOT hate Russians 'as such'. One must draw a line between the nation and the elite at the helm. I have A LOT of friends in Russia and Russian friends abroad, I speak the language, I like the cuisine, I enjoy the discussions with them, and I appreciate their art. Same goes to some poor kids 18-20, who were told they go to Belarus for exercises or that they would be welcomed with flowers... Some further members of my family didn't show up for my Father's funeral... Technicall - 'a stranger' - our business partner and a friend woke up at 1 a.m. to get early to the airport, fly over from Moscow to Kaliningrad, then rented a car and drove for a few hours, just to see my Father in his last, as it turned out, hours. He was(is) ... Russian!...

So let's get clear it's about

a) 'the ruler/s', not the nation - and how to stop him/them and then, once succeeded - how to prevent it in the future for such things happening again,

b) how to help the victims.

On a) - in here we, as individuals, cannot do much. But every little effort to limit the income of the hegemon and his buddies are making, every effort to make people in any country (including Russia) aware of the situation and reality counts. At the end of the day - as long as Western Europe is buying oil and gas from Russia, as long as Slovakia is buying Uranium, etc. - the money will keep feeding the war machine and the private empires behind it. In Poland and Lithuania ordinary people are boycotting Russian and Belarussian products in the markets, market chains are removing products made in these two countries or elsewhere, by the companies belonging to oligarchs, etc.

On b) - 'how to directly help the ones in need' - it's much easier.

One can help financially - directly if knowing someone 'there', indirectly - through funds, charities, organizations and donations. Just make sure you know whom you give the monnies. There are already (yes, that's sad) first scams scavenging on others' misery...

Do arrange material aid - food, medical supplies, etc. Again - 'but': just make sure you are up to date what at any given moment currently is the most needed. One day it's clothing, another it's sleeping bags and blankets. Food, but better long-term, hygiene products, medical supplies...

In your country (Germany, soon the Netherlands and France may see more Ukrainians coming...) help the local organizations, but foremost help mothers find jobs and children have school and daycare. Help us doing so too.

And - spread the word. If you're busy helping - it's great, but if you help only half as much, but second half of your time get others engaged - it's better.

Some of you call me. Eg. Ingrid - thanks for the great, long discussion/conversation. One more comment out from the discussion:
Unless you speak Polish, Russian on Ukrainian - no matter how how hughe-hearthly and noble of you - help remotely. You can provide more help being active locally - in your communities, among people, families, friends, organizations and neighbours you know, activating them, getting them involved, than 'on the front-line'. :)

Matthieu, Roger (others, if I missed, when writing this lengthy message, more incoming messages on the subject...) - let me get organized and I'll send some hints in a separate mail. In the meantime - look locally - there surely are already some organized actions. I'll also share some specific examples of what we do in Poland, some weren't obvious even to me, locally, until I saw them and thought 'Oh, right!'

YRS,
Marek

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I also tend to agree with Matthew on this point but acknowledge this is a very actively debated topic.  Regardless, i also believe in the self-determination of nations to be able to democtratically decide their future, in an age when smaller countries should not be bullied by larger neighbours.

I am sure like others, i have been so impressed by the spirit of the Ukrainian people, and also felt powerless that there is little the western countries can do to actively help them.  I was moved by Marek's email and also how Natasha's ways of helping.  As a positive and caring community, i would love to hear other ideas about how we can help the Ukrainian people, in these unimaginably dark times, while most of us continue to live our comfortable lives..  i would like to do more to help but unsure what to do..

hermish

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Sticking my neck way out here as I’m clearly not as well informed as many of you. And I hesitate to take issue with anything Soren writes because, well, It seems quite ballsy to even contemplate.

But, reading this note and analysis, I can’t quite get past the assertion that it’s “understood that Russia needed the buffer zone”. Is it? It’s understood that such a need is part of Russian doctrine and important to Putin. But that’s not the same as acknowledging that the need is “real”.

Certainly much more credible analysts than me have argued this. For instance, that the changing nature of warfare since 1945 reduces the logic for a buffer against land-based invasion. Or pointing out that there are in fact no credible prospective threats to Russian territorial integrity that would argue for a buffer.

I can’t take issue with the bulk of Soren’s analysis but given the desire for a buffer zone is arguably either paranoid or offensive in nature I’m less inclined to dismiss megalomania and accept the argument of rational politics.

Best wishes

Matthew

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Dear all,

I’m pretty sure Philip Gordon taught us that there are four main dimensions driving geo-politics.  Unfortunately I’ve forgotten what they are…  While somebody with better memory reminds us, I think this particular situation is reasonably well understood as the conflict between (1) realist politics and (2) the morals and views of people in different countries.

The realists say that Ukraine was always in some sense part of the Russian-Soviet sphere. It was understood that Russia needed the buffer zone, at least in the form of a friendly government.  The West meddled with this in 2008.  What we’re seeing now is not megalomania but rational politics.

Seen through realist glasses, we’ve had farcically poor U.S. leadership in the last decades.

In 2008 NATO under Bush, spurred on by his cold warriors, pushed Ukraine membership in NATO (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/01/nato.georgia).  This is what Mearsheimer calls the unipolar moment where the U.S. considered itself the only world power worth its salt (https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine).

In 2012 Obama made the famous red-line remark concerning chemical weapons in Syria (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authorization_for_the_Use_of_Military_Force_Against_the_Government_of_Syria_to_Respond_to_Use_of_Chemical_Weapons) and then stood by as it was crossed and U.S. credibility eroded with it.

In 2014 Putin conducted his first invasion – unopposed, of course.

In 2016 Trump campaigned partly on the thought of withdrawing from NATO.  The history is here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO#United_States); more recent inside-baseball from 2019 here (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html).

And here we are in 2022.  Logistically it’s a big job to invade a country.  Many of us were probably naively thinking in terms of a few days, and here we are 11 days later.  Putin will almost have to continue within the region now that he’s there, as he won’t get another easy chance (https://inews.co.uk/news/russia-invade-moldova-will-lukashenko-battle-map-putin-plans-after-ukraine-1493407).

Biden’s position could be said to be the most realist possible under the circumstances.  He went as far as “letting it slip” (https://www.npr.org/2022/01/20/1074466148/biden-russia-ukraine-minor-incursion) that a minor incursion into Ukraine would probably be OK.  The whole West said sternly before the invasion that there would be severe sanctions (meaning: no military action).  The Americans tried to let Putin get in and out without triggering a domino effect.  A few ineffectual sanctions would be fine, similar to the ones that Natasha described.

The other dimension is the moral one.  The pawns don’t always do what they’re supposed to.  So where might this happen?

It seems unlikely that Ukraine in itself is going to become a major moral issue in the U.S. You can easily find your own quotes.

Germany was all set to leave it at a stern tweet until pressure made them (us) abandon Nordstream 2.  As Scholz was forced to change his realist opinion, he is now out in front making the best of it with moralist statements.  So it does work.

But Germany has always been led by a strong layer of Russian-friendly civil servants, no matter who was chancellor under them.  The energy decisions of the last decade have been poor: Keeping coal alive until 2037, switching off nuclear power (think of this what you will, but geo-politically it reinforced the dependency). 60% of German gas comes from Russia.  The head of the German so-called Army wrote two weeks ago (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/head-of-germany-s-army-admits-we-re-not-ready-for-war) that Germany can’t fight its way out of a paper bag anymore (I’m paraphrasing slightly).

In general Europe is as much up in metaphorical arms as you’ll ever see.  The prospects of a direct border with Russia again, of nuclear plants exploding in Ukraine etc. are unacceptable, and the solidarity with the Ukrainians and their suffering is everywhere.

The question is where this will end up, and if it will be more of a realist or a moral outcome.  It seems to me that geo-politics is run by realists everywhere, and the only thing that upsets this is unexpected moral opposition.  To try to answer Angela’s questions in realist terms:

(1)    NATO decision:  In some sense yes, but it’s a long semi-causal chain of decisions going back through centuries of reaction and counter-reaction, and in a way it doesn’t matter.  All that matters is the position on the chess board right now. It’s not a game that one can win, anyway.  It’s never over.

(2)    Biden pro-war: Highly unlikely.  Biden probably thinks a limited war is the best of a set of bad options under the circumstances, but he would have much preferred to be in different circumstances.  Shifting Russia toward China would be very serious.  This is also why China is quite happy to play the long game, not to make overly sweeping moral statements that could seem to reflect on Tibet, Hong Kong etc.

(3)    Molotov training:  Seems like propaganda.

(4)    U.S. grandstanding:  It may well be one of the more annoying habits of the U.S. that they go through periods of actually believing the moral grounds that they use to justify their realist positions.  Still, everybody else does it too.

(5)    Neutrality:  The Wikipedia article above mentions that in 2017, 69% of Ukrainians wanted to join NATO.  Who knows whether those numbers were correct or manipulated.  But the only way a democratic government could declare neutrality would be to cheat its way into power and then go against the will of a lot of people on a very important issue.  Even then it would have to be so credible that it would survive later changes in government.  It seems basically impossible as a solution.  It’s just not a rule of the game everybody else is playing that you get to do this except in rare circumstances (it has to be credible long-term, and you have to be somewhat unimportant).

For the realists, it’s also a question what the next steps in the chain are going to be once the immediate situation is resolved.  Is the West going to be forced and shamed into sanctions that actually work this time?  Is this going to force Russia into China’s arms, as the Americans are plainly trying to avoid?  Is Putin going to fall?  Is that going to make things better or worse?  Are we witnessing 1938 again (with nuclear weapons) and are the realists having another Chamberlain moment?

The above has all sounded rather realist.  I think it does explain a lot.  Personally I think it’s useful to understand, because everybody who’s in charge thinks in these cautious, incremental chess terms.  But I think it’s outrageously cynical to cede ground like in a board game.  We didn’t make all those bad decisions that led to the current situation, but we can do the best we can under the circumstances.

In moral terms my own answers are:

(1)    NATO decision:  An unprovoked attack war has no rationale.  It is so deeply unacceptable that this tops almost any tactical motive that one might have.

(2)    Biden pro-war: Biden missed the opportunity of a lifetime to take an actual, moral stand (and backing it up) as opposed to a calculated, tepid, tactical one.  So did China and Europe.  But it’s rather late to wake up to this now that they have all effectively green-lighted the invasion, and Putin would have every reason to feel betrayed and cornered.  This is a fine mess you’ve gotten us into, as Ollie said to Stan.

(3)    Molotov training:  Who cares even if it’s true?  Is that a reason to favor a Russian invasion of the other 99.9999% three years later?

(4)    U.S. grandstanding:  Well, this time they’re right.  They may have been wrong some other times.

(5)    Neutrality:  Because that’s not what the people of Ukraine want.

I think the sentiment outside Russia can help to push for a more moral outcome.  Ultimately a morally good solution is going to have to come from within Russia.  This is super scary and risky, but we have to believe that the Russian people are going to self-adjust in this unacceptable situation.

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I have more questions than answers, but still…. It is clear that “something” has to be done, now what is that “something”? Just wait until the situation goes away is clear not an option. What needs to be done on a state level to deal with such an aggressors? Jump into the war ourselves or impose only economic sanctions which mainly hurt the people? Cut Russia of all international economic activities?

Can economic sanctions really deliver what we hope for or are we just satisfying our conscious by imposing economic sanctions and continue to buy Russian gas and oil in Europe?

Ultimately Putin probably can only be stopped by his own people.

Just my thoughts….

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Natasha, Marek

It is a tragedy that hurts for us all to witness. I cannot believe there has ever been a more unifying cause across the Western world in a long time (and especially on this Insead email group!).

The West’s past inaction has hopefully come to an end. It is a wake-up call and a stark reminder that democracy is worth a lot and for some it is worth their lives.

At a more personal level, i am sure many, like me, would like to do as much as they can. An easy way is for us to support financially those in needs.

Can you both let us know how we can best support financially? Which are the organisations that we should trust will do the best job possible taking care of the humanitarian crisis?

Every day that passes leaves me wondering how we ended up in a repeat of 1938. The cost to stop Putin will be very high. It is just a fact.

For those of us who have done well in our careers, the cost will be bearable compared to the poorest whose energy bills will skyrocket or worse whose wheat from Ukrainian farms will simply not be there.

It is time for us to something about it.

Thanks Marek and Natasha for energising our community into action.

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Angela ,

Thank you for sharing this but I have to say I am alarmed by what you wrote. If you believe the US wants this war you are wrong. This is a complete tragedy. Putin is a total monster and is out of control. Do not believe the propaganda you were being sold in Hong Kong …perhaps it’s coming from the Chinese. I don’t know. But in this case, a crazy man invaded a country that was independent and was democratic. I would think that you would care a lot about democracy coming from Hong Kong and knowing what it’s like to that for that to be taken away…

The people of Ukraine do not want to be part of Russia. They want to be part of Europe. They want to be part of a free and democratic society.

Russia is killing civilians and Putin is on a war path… not unlike 1938 as WW2 started. Read the emails from Natasha and Marek closely

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Marek, my dear friends,

As you all know, I am not a very chatty participant of this group (though I LOVE it all, be it a debate about our kids, the definition of liberties or business success stories…).

But on this issue, I have to speak up.

My heart is with all the Ukrainians as well as with the Russian young soldiers (kids!) who madman criminal Putin is destroying. This tragedy is impossible to comprehend. Marek, I read your message and cried, and this is not the first time in the past week…

Sadly, this does not come as a surprise. When in 2008 Putin sent troops to Georgia, no one tried to stop him or punish him (on the personal side, in 2008 my husband sold his business in Russia and subsequently liquidated ALL investments and assets except our flat in Moscow; to be fair, I was much more optimistic, left JP Morgan in ’09 and started my advisory business… which was a great success to my surprise).

But in 2014 the madman took over the Crimea, part of a sovereign state’s territory. At that point, even to me it was all very clear. A dangerous fascist leader was born. I advised all my clients to sell assets in Russia if they could.

It is hard to believe but strictly NOTHING happened; the sanctions were a showcase no more. Trust me. I told everyone who would listen; the journalists, financial institutions, the US friends (I worked closely with the US Treasury on one of the deals in 2016); I was trying to explain that the “showcase sanctions” were an insult to us all; and that they would simply encourage the madman to continue. And of course I was not the only one. But the West would not listen! As if everyone completely forgot what happened last century; had they stopped Hitler in 1938, we may not have lost that many lives later…

So tragically, this war does not come to me as a surprise. On the intellectual level, I expected exactly this. And I can tell you now that, unless he is stopped, he will proceed.

The Western nations (and of course China, no surprise there) choose to do VERY little. I am not sure why. They probably still do not understand who they are dealing with (like in 1938). The current sanctions are mostly a joke or an insult to us all, with ONE exception ie sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia. There is NO embargo on the sales of either Russian crude or gas.

There is, however, some light. While the governments are being useless and cynical, there is a growing resistance in the private world to buy Russian oil and gas. Only if Russia is cut off these flows, the people may wake up and change the regime. And that will happen quickly (I would give it 6 months at most).

Why the Western governments would not simply introduce an immediate action to sanction Russian oil and gas, I simply cannot understand. No idea!

Marek, let’s please keep in touch. We are doing all we can at all levels; sending money directly to the families; raising funds in London to support 10 funds working on the border. I am working with several leading Russian and Ukrainian world class artists to produce and sell NFTs in the next 2-3 weeks (I am the expert! Having sold the first world ballet NFTs with Natasha Osipova in December at Bonhams…), we will target a serious sum for the same funds and The Red Cross. I would do anything.

But whatever we do, the criminal maniac must go. And the only way is to take the economic sanctions to a different level.

Sorry for a long letter, please forgive me but this is the tragedy of our generation. Right? We must stop it. Somehow.

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Hi Marek and all,

Hope you are well,
While here in HK we are facing the sudden blow up of pandemic, our hearts feel equally heavy about what is going on in Ukraine.

Just like to share here we have received mix messages about this war which confuses us in this part of asia even more.  In short,

1. The rationale of the war is due to the  expansion of NATO
2. Biden actually likes this war to happen because that will stop european‘s reliance on Russian energy and the contain Russia.
3. Some small group of Ukrainie came to HK in 2019 and taught our young people to make this m. cocktail and made our city a mess.  Their objectives was to promote the seperatism of HK.
4. Why can US use the word “liberation” to justify their use of forces and other countries ‘s actions are “invasion”. Why is US always right.
5. We don’t quite understand why can‘t Ukraine declare its state of political neutrality, just like Finland or Switzerland so they are not to offend the Russian.

Perhaps my dear classmates to give us a lecture of their views.

Anyways, in any cases it is wrong and unacceptable to use forces to enter another independent sovereign.

Please take care.

Angela