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The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is a collection of marine debris in the North Pacific Ocean. Marine debris is litter that ends up in oceans, seas, and other large bodies of water.

The area in the center of a gyre tends to be very calm and stable. The circular motion of the gyre draws debris into this stable center, where it becomes trapped. A plastic water bottle discarded off the coast of California, for instance, takes the California Current south toward Mexico. There, it may catch the North Equatorial Current, which crosses the vast Pacific. Near the coast of Japan, the bottle may travel north on the powerful Kuroshiro Current. Finally, the bottle travels eastward on the North Pacific Current. The gently rolling vortexes of the Eastern and Western Garbage Patches gradually draw in the bottle.

The amount of debris in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch accumulates because much of it is not biodegradable. Many plastics, for instance, do not wear down; they simply break into tinier and tinier pieces.

For many people, the idea of a "garbage patch" conjures up images of an island of trash floating on the ocean. In reality, these patches are almost entirely made up of tiny bits of plastic, called microplastics. Microplastics can't always be seen by the naked eye. Even satellite imagery doesn't show a giant patch of garbage. The microplastics of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch can simply make the water look like a cloudy soup. This soup is intermixed with larger items, such as fishing gear and shoes.

The seafloor beneath the Great Pacific Garbage Patch may also be an underwater trash heap. Oceanographers and ecologists recently discovered that about 70 percent of marine debris actually sinks to the bottom of the ocean.
Marine Debris
80 percent of plastic in the ocean is estimated to come from land-based sources, with the remaining 20 percent coming from boats and other marine sources. These percentages vary by region, however. A 2018 study found that synthetic fishing nets made up nearly half the mass of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, due largely to ocean current dynamics and increased fishing activity in the Pacific Ocean.

While many different types of trash enter the ocean, plastics make up the majority of marine debris for two reasons. First, plastic's durability, low cost, and malleability mean that it's being used in more and more consumer and industrial products. Second, plastic goods do not biodegrade but instead, break down into smaller pieces.

In the ocean, the sun breaks down these plastics into tinier and tinier pieces, a process known as photodegradation. Most of this debris comes from plastic bags, bottle caps, plastic water bottles, and Styrofoam cups.

Marine debris can be very harmful to marine life in the gyre. For instance, loggerhead sea turtles often mistake plastic bags for jellies, their favorite food. Albatrosses mistake plastic resin pellets for fish eggs and feed them to chicks, which die of starvation or ruptured organs.

Seals and other marine mammals are especially at risk. They can get entangled in abandoned plastic fishing nets, which are being discarded largely due to inclement weather and illegal fishing. Seals and other mammals often drown in these forgotten nets-a phenomenon known as "ghost fishing."

Marine debris can also disturb marine food webs in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. As microplastics and other trash collect on or near the surface of the ocean, they block sunlight from reaching plankton and algae below. Algae and plankton are the most common autotrophs, or producers, in the marine food web. Autotrophs are organisms that can produce their own nutrients from carbon and sunlight.

If algae and plankton communities are threatened, the entire food web may change. Animals that feed on algae and plankton, such as fish and turtles, will have less food. If populations of those animals decrease, there will be less food for apex predators such as tuna, sharks, and whales. Eventually, seafood becomes less available and more expensive for people.

These dangers are compounded by the fact that plastics both leach out and absorb harmful pollutants. As plastics break down through photodegradation, they leach out colorants and chemicals, such as bisphenol A (BPA), that have been linked to environmental and health problems. Conversely, plastics can also absorb pollutants, such as PCBs, from the seawater. These chemicals can then enter the food chain when consumed by marine life.
Patching Up the Patch
Cleaning up marine debris is not as easy as it sounds. Many microplastics are the same size as small sea animals, so nets designed to scoop up trash would catch these creatures as well. Even if we could design nets that would just catch garbage, the size of the oceans makes this job far too time-consuming to consider. The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's Marine Debris Program has estimated that it would take 67 ships one year to clean up less than one percent of the North Pacific Ocean.

Many expeditions have traveled through the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. Charles Moore, who discovered the patch in 1997, continues to raise awareness through his own environmental organization, the Algalita Marine Research Foundation. During a 2014 expedition, Moore and his team used aerial drones, to assess from above the extent of the trash below. The drones determined that there is 100 times more plastic by weight than previously measured. The team also discovered more permanent plastic features, or islands, some over 15 meters (50 feet) in length.

All the floating plastic in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch inspired National Geographic Emerging Explorer David de Rothschild and his team at Adventure Ecology to create a large catamaran made of plastic bottles: the . The sturdiness of the Plastiki displayed the strength and durability of plastics, the creative ways that they can be repurposed, and the threat they pose to the environment when they don't decompose. In 2010, the crew successfully navigated the Plastiki from San Francisco, California, to Sydney, Australia.

Scientists and explorers agree that limiting or eliminating our use of disposable plastics and increasing our use of biodegradable resources will be the best way to clean up the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. Organizations such as the Plastic Pollution Coalition and the Plastic Oceans Foundation are using social media and direct action campaigns to support individuals, manufacturers, and businesses in their transition from toxic, disposable plastics to biodegradable or reusable materials.

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The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is a collection of marine debris in the North Pacific Ocean. Marine debris is litter that ends up in oceans, seas, and other large bodies of water. The area in the center of a gyre tends to be very calm and stable.

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https://www.airnow.gov/announcement/4636

Celebrate Air Quality Awareness Week

This week, May 3-7, is Air Quality Awareness Week (#AQAW2021)! Visit our AQAW site for information on air quality and health, and check out some tools, resources, and educational materials that EPA and partner organizations have been working on. AirNow.gov/aqaw

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https://www.airnow.gov/announcement/4636 Celebrate Air Quality Awareness Week This week, May 3-7, is Air Quality Awareness Week (#AQAW2021)! Visit our AQAW site for information on air quality and health, and check out some tools, resources, and educational materials that EPA and partner organizations have been working on. AirNow.gov/aqaw

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The embedded ultramafic rocks of the ophiolite complex find their way to the surface either by erosion of material above the ophiolite or uplift in the course of tectonic activity.

Depending on the mineralogy and forces operating in the physical or chemical environment (metamorphosis), the broad classification of ultramafic rock can be divided into two rock types: serpentinite and peridotite. Serpentinite is the result of intense deformation caused by the force of crustal movement. The rock develops fractures into which water will flow. This hydration process changes the mineralogy of the rock resulting in the creation of serpentine, a polished, gray-green-black rock. For peridotite, the minerals present in the mantle are retained yielding a warty, red to orange rock. The term "serpentine" is commonly used to include both serpentinite and peridotite.

Once exposed to the elements, serpentine rock weathers to form soil. The resultant soils are a byproduct of the mineralogy of the rock, from which it is formed, but other factors come into play like rainfall, topography, and the length of time the serpentine rock has been exposed. All of these factors result in a tremendous variety of soil types derived from serpentine, yet there are characteristics of serpentine soils in common that have bearing on the plants that occupy these areas and their distinctive plant community.

What Plants Need and What They Will Tolerate

All plants need water at some level and a substrate, like soil, to hold them in place. Plant survival and growth depends on what is in the soil, or the soil's fertility. Essential nutrients in the soil include nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium along with calcium, magnesium, and various trace metals such as nickel and iron. These nutrients play a role in development of plant tissue. Not only is the presence of these nutrients important, but respective concentrations are also vital.

Serpentine soils are unique in that they vary notably from the model of soil fertility. To the contrary, serpentine soils house only those plant species that can tolerate extreme conditions, in particular:

Low amounts of calcium and high amounts of magnesium

Relatively heavy concentrations of nickel, chromium and other heavy metals

Low levels of nitrogen and poor nitrogen uptake

While calcium is poorly represented in serpentine soils, its availability to plants is further complicated by high concentrations of magnesium that inhibit calcium uptake. The following table provides comparisons of magnesium (Mg) and calcium (Ca) concentrations across various rock types to illustrate the distinctiveness of ultramafic rock.

Heavy metals are naturally present as micronutrients, but at high concentrations can alter cell membranes and reduce root growth. The interactions between calcium, magnesium, and such heavy metals as nickel are complex at best, whereby magnesium may block the uptake of calcium, while calcium may reduce effects of excess magnesium, and both magnesium and calcium may reduce toxic effects of the heavy metal nickel.

Nitrogen is primarily derived from decomposed organic material. Organic material in serpentine environments occurs sparingly. The atmosphere is another source of nitrogen but must first be converted to a form usable to plants. Bacteria that form nodules on the roots of certain plants accomplish the conversion of atmospheric nitrogen. Plant species in the genus Ceanothus are known to fix nitrogen ( nitrogen fixation) and are common members of the serpentine flora.

Scientists agree that there are no typical serpentine soils and no typical responses by plants to these interactions. Plants that prevail on serpentine soils are those that have developed adaptive strategies to tolerate what most plant will not!

Botanical Carnivory

Plants have other ways of obtaining nitrogen in a nitrogen-limited environment, such as eating insects. The California pitcher plant, Darlingtonia californica, is a rare carnivorous plant of serpentine wetland communities. California pitcher plant obtains its nitrogen by decomposing insects captured in the pitcher-shaped leaves. The insects crawl down inside the pitcher where they are trapped by a barrier of downward facing hairs. Bacteria and invertebrates then decompose the trapped insects.

Getting Along in a Challenging World: Adaptations and Tolerances

While there are challenges to the infertility of serpentine soils, all is far from grim living on the edge. Instead of characterizing these environments as "harsh" or the soils as "toxic", perhaps plants on serpentine don't need so much calcium, maybe high levels of magnesium is the new essential nutrient, perhaps nickel is distasteful to grazing insects, and it could just be that serpentine plants are actually thriving in their environment.

Tolerances and adaptations range from those at the cellular level to those apparent to the naked eye. High concentrations of nickel are tolerated in some serpentine plants by exclusion, reduced transfer of nickel from root to shoot, or hyperaccumulation. Other plants adapt to a low calcium environment, by selectively up taking this nutrient rather than magnesium.

Morphological adaptations to dry and high light environments (and possible nutrient deficiencies) include fleshy leaves, leaf hairs, and protective pigments. The basal rosette growth form, a common form of serpentine perennials, reduces the incidence of desiccation by locating its leaves close to the ground surface out of the drying influence of the wind.

Plant growth on serpentines is typically stunted. Woody plants that grow to tree height on non-serpentine soils grow in a dwarfed or shrub-like form on serpentine soils.

Biotic variables, beyond the morphological or physiological, contribute to the ability some plants possess to find nutrients in a nutrient-limited environment. Mycorrhizal relationships - the relationship between a plant and a fungus under ground - facilitate the scavenging and uptake of nutrients by extending the absorptive surface of the fine roots through development of threads called hyphae. These fungi also produce enzymes that decompose organic matter, a source of nitrogen.

Is it Nurture or Nature?

Some plant species are seldom if ever found on serpentines, others are indifferent meaning they can occur both on, or off, serpentines, yet others are almost entirely restricted to serpentines. These distinctions are undoubtedly the result of evolutionary processes, but what mechanism drives the process? Are plants somehow genetically pre-adapted to life on the edge? Did the selective pressures of life on serpentines further separate these plants from others over time? Is it nurture or nature? Likely both, but for now, it is sufficient to say that growth and survival of species on serpentine is a function of the " serpentine syndrome", the sum of the response to physical, biological, chemical and temporal factors.

Definitions

serpentinite and peridotite - Ultramafic rock consists of magnesium-iron silicate minerals, such as olivine and pyroxene and forms the upper mantle of the earth. The crust (oceanic and continental) is situated above the mantle. The part of the mantle forming the "basement" of the oceanic crust is termed peridotite. Peridotite consists primarily of olivine.

In mountain building areas, peridotite exposed to pressure can subsequently fracture. Water entering the fracture alters the mineralogy of the peridotite to form serpentinite. In serpentinite rock, the olivine and pyroxene alter to form serpentine minerals, such as magnesium silicate, talc, and magnetite. Serpentinite can come in many colors depending on the specifics of the mineralogy.

nitrogen fixation - Plants need nitrogen in relatively large quantities. In serpentine areas, nitrogen via decomposition of organic material is likely limited due to the general paucity of organic biomass in serpentine area.

Atmospheric nitrogen is the more likely contributor in serpentine environments but it must first be converted to a different form before plant uptake. In the serpentine world, this conversion or fixation is primarily the work of bacteria living in nodules on the plants' roots. Bacteria obtain carbon from the plants and in return provide fixed nitrogen, specifically, ammonia. The greatest potential for nitrogen fixation in serpentine soils is in the root zone of certain legumes (e.g. Lotus or Lupinus spp.) or woody species such as Ceanothus spp.

hyperaccumulation - is the adaptation by plants to high heavy metals such as nickel found in serpentine soils. Nickel taken up in the roots becomes concentrated in leaf tissue. In micrograms/gram Thlaspi montanum, a species in the mustard or Brassicaceae family, concentrates 3833 micrograms in its foliage. Species in the genus Streptanthus spp., also in the Brassicaceae family, ranks second with 2400 to 2800 micrograms. These concentrations are in sharp contrast to other serpentine associated plants sampled in the various studies which contain less than 434 micrograms. (Data from: Alexander, E.B. et al. 2007- Table 8.5, which summarized various studies of trace element concentrations in foliage of California and southwest Oregon plants from serpentine soils.)

serpentine syndrome - a phrase coined by Hans Jenny (1980) to explain plant survival on serpentine as a summed response to several factors: chemical, biological, physical, and temporal.

Resources and References

Alexander, E. B., R. G. Coleman, T. Keeler-Wolf, and S. P. Harrison. 2007. Serpentine Geoecology of Western North America, Geology, Soils, and Vegetation. Oxford University Press. New York, New York. 512p.

Brooks, R.R. 1987. Serpentine and its Vegetation, a Multidisciplinary Approach. Dioscorides Press, Portland, OR. 454p.

Kruckeberg, A. R. 1992. Plant life of western North American ultramafics. Pages: 31-74. in B. A. Roberts and J. Proctor, editors. The ecology of areas with serpentinzed rocks: a world view. Kluwer, Dordrecht, Netherlands.

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Formed deep within the earth's mantle, serpentine rocks found their way to the surface over millennia. Unique flora have evolved on serpentine soils, especially adapted to survive severe hardships of drought, heavy metals, and nutrient stress. The Klamath-Siskiyou Mountains of northwest California and southwest Oregon are the largest serpentine area in North America.

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Launch Tool
Wildfire Simulator is a fire-growth computer model that lets users see how certain conditions, such as wind speed and direction, affect the spread of a wildland fire. In addition, it shows users how to use a fireline-alone or in conjunction with a backfire-to control a fire. (A fireline is a path along which fuel has been removed, and a backfire is a fire purposely set to burn away fuel.) To begin this interactive, set wind and fuel conditions by selecting various options in the "Wind" and "Fuel" section at the bottom of the screen. Using the "fire" icon located in the "Tools" section at the bottom of the screen, you will start a fire. Next, if you decide to fight the fire, your goal is to stop the fire from reaching the house. To stop the fire, create a fireline with the tool that looks like a pick and widen the fireline by creating a backfire with the drip torch (These icons are located in the "Tool" section at the bottom of the screen.

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Launch Tool Wildfire Simulator is a fire-growth computer model that lets users see how certain conditions, such as wind speed and direction, affect the spread of a wildland fire. In addition, it shows users how to use a fireline-alone or in conjunction with a backfire-to control a fire.

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Perhaps the most present term in news articles as one of the main causes for fires getting so big so fast is fire suppression, which has resulted in a lack of fire for more than a century.

"They're deeply interconnected, but they can't really be disentangled," said Carly Phillips , a researcher in residence at the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions . "They're interacting and they're also making each other worse. The fuel is drier and easier to ignite as a result of climate change."
But What Is Fire Suppression?
It also suggests that the fires were started by coal-powered trains spewing hot-red cinder into bone-dry forests as well as homesteaders and campers setting fires on accident.

Eighty-six people died in what is called the Big Blowup, which burned millions of trees meant to be logged and changed forest management to the current day.

She says shortly after the fire, the Forest Service started the " 10 a.m. policy ," requiring fires be put out by 10 a.m. the next day. That policy is no longer in practice. Prior to the colonization of the West Coast, around acres burned in California yearly both naturally and on purpose by Native Americans who had a working relationship with the land.

"You are removing the people who had a seasonal and multi-year rhythm and relationship with fire," he said. "That cycle was completely broken."

"The land was constantly on fire," Goode said. "Removal of Native Americans from the land is the result of what we have today."

Goode says what was removed is the spiritual connection Indigenous people have with the land, which, in part, resulted in the fire suppression we are experiencing more than a century later.

"If you're with an agency, where's the spirituality?" Goode questioned. "You don't hear them singing songs, you don't hear them giving prayers, you don't hear them making offerings. When you're out with the Indians, that's exactly what they do first. They want to make a relationship to the land."

He says what was revealed by the actions of agencies like the Forest Service is they were "not thinking in terms of how to take care of the land and how to make the land sustainable."

And then, in the 1920s, this idea of suppressing wildfires grew even more when the agency decided intentional burning was a . In 1924 a Siskiyou National Forest Supervisor the '"Brushy Hell' of shrublands must be protected for the benefit of future timberland succession, 'so leave them alone.'"

"The Forest Service said it ruins forests, it was bad forest management," said Kocher. "Then in 1924, California followed suit and said it was not legal to burn forests on purpose."

Kocher says this idea of letting trees grow and not letting forests burn naturally every decade wasn't this malicious idea either.

"They would have thought, 'Oh, we're doing this great work where we're leaving all these extra trees for people to use for timber moving forward,'" she said. "I don't think those early foresters ever could have foreseen how fire could get away from them."
Can California Tackle The Task?
The result of removing fire from the landscape across the west meant a literal buildup of trees - both dead and alive - brush and grasses.

"I think it has been a serious struggle," he said. "The scope and scale of land management work is still not meeting the scope and scale of fire suppression efforts ... We haven't really figured out how to coexist with fire."

Jones also says part of what makes fire suppression an issue in 2020 is the matrix of jurisdiction across the coastal range, the desert and the Sierra Nevada. In each area are National Forests, National Parks, Bureau of Land Management areas, cities, towns, private land, preserves, reserves, areas that are logged and more than 3 million homes.

"When you think that you can build your house anywhere because some kind of fire suppression agency will come there and put the fire out, it doesn't really create any incentive to create good building practices," Jones said.

Without unified management Jones says "it creates a very mosaic pattern of land use" with a diversity of conditions that could lead to wildfire.

"It takes a lot of coordination in our thinking as a society to push this message forward that fire suppression hasn't worked and we need to be more proactive and better stewards of the landscape," he said.

"Before suppression was the tactic, and now it's all under the umbrella of fire management, which sort of recognizes the role of fire plays in some of these ecosystems ... for somewhat beneficial purposes," he said.

But Collins says there needs to be a breaking point - a shift in funds and resources to combat fires in a huge way in the offseason when the probability of fires getting out of control is low.

"We can only hold it off for so long," he said. "From a policy standpoint, some of the things are in place. But on the acres side, we're a long way away."

He says the knowledge and ability to manage fire is all available, but there's a "weird intersection" of issues including a lack of clear direction from agencies and funding limitations.

"We have to make up for what we've done by eliminating fire," he said. "We almost have to pay down the debt that we've accrued again. I just think if people think the solution is more engines, more helicopters we're just gonna keep repeating the same problem."
Editor's note: A previous version of this story was missing a quote from Susie Kocher, a UC system forestry advisor in the Tahoe Region. It has been readded.

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fire suppression —  and climate change —  is to blame for california’s megafires. experts unpack the term.

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Fire Suppression - And Climate Change - Is To Blame For California's Megafires. Experts Unpack The Term.

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With more than three million acres burned so far this year in California, wildfires are at top of mind. And the term "wildfire suppression" is often cited as a main reason for blazes getting so big. But what does the term actually mean?

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A History Of California Wildfires

See the perimeters of more than 100 years of California wildfires recorded by Cal Fire.

Learn more about how climate change is fueling California's recent wildfires with CapRadio's coverage here and here.

Show all fires More about the data

Data: Cal Fire Fire Perimeters. Production by Emily Zentner and Chris Hagan

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See the perimeters of more than 100 years of California wildfires recorded by Cal Fire. Learn more about how climate change is fueling California's recent wildfires with CapRadio's coverage here and here. Show all fires More about the data Data: Cal Fire Fire Perimeters.

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More than a million acres are charred black in California as the result of historic wildfires this summer. For residents like Nick Pike, whose home was destroyed by the LNU Lightning Complex fires in the hills west of Vacaville, the blazes are simply devastating.

"This sucks," Pike said. "We have four kids. Everything's gone."

At the time, Pike said he had no idea how many people evacuated or made it out of their homes. "But it seems as bad as the Paradise one to me, with the amount of smoke and fire we're seeing," he said.

California experienced a spree of fires caused by more than 12,000 lightning strikes in August. In many ways, the blazes were unprecedented. But experts say these kinds of wildfires will also become very normal and routine if we do not take significant action to adapt to climate change and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change is a driving factor. But another major cause of the fires is excess fuel, which allows them to grow so big so quickly, in part because of a century of fire suppression.

The number of dangerous and extremely hot "fire days" in California is also on the rise. And efforts to mitigate fire fuels, including prescribed burns - where fires are lit on purpose in cooler months to burn away excess debris and dead wood - aren't happening fast enough.

One challenge with letting fires burn, however, is more people than ever are living in rural and fire-prone communities and zones. This means there's also a need to reframe how residents view fires; they're not always bad.

"We're looking at our future every time we look at a fire," Char Miller, a professor of environmental analysis at Pomona College, said of the recent blazes in Northern California, two of which were the largest fires by acreage in state history.

There are solutions - more of these prescriptive burns, removing trees killed by bark beetles, cleaning-up the area around homes - but experts say any immediate answer will be futile unless California, and the world, dramatically rethinks its approach to the climate crisis.

"Wildfires in California are going to continue or get worse," said Stanford University climate scientist Michael Goss. "It could be that we're going to see more seasons where we have multiple large wildfires across the state of California."

More Fuel In California Than Ever

Ezra David Romero / Capital Public Radio

One of the difficulties when it comes to mitigating wildfires in California is that, in recent decades, an increasing amount of the state is vulnerable.

"Outdated policies and human-caused climate change [have] increased burn area [by] 900% across the western U.S. since 1984," said UC Berkeley forest ecologist and climate change scientist Patrick Gonzalez.

This means areas such as Vacaville and the hills and canyons surrounding Lake Berryessa, where the LNU Lightning Complex blazes traveled at high speeds, are much drier and susceptible to early-season wildfires.

"These fires are burning more severely and increasing the carbon emissions that drive climate change," Gonzalez said of how they in turn perpetuate the climate crisis.

Another huge part of the reason why fires are so hard to control in California is because there's a legacy of fire suppression.

"The root of what makes forest fires in California a problem is still the lack of good forest stewardship," said Kristen Shive, director of science for the advocacy group Save the Redwoods League. "Climate change is exacerbating our fuels problem. Right? And as it continues to warm I think that just raises the urgency to do" a better job of forest thinning and allowing blazes to burn in certain areas.

The state has more than 48 million acres of forests and chaparral, or highly flammable shrubs and bushes. Within that land are about 3 million homes.

Wildfires in California are going to continue or get worse.

- Stanford University climate scientist Michael Goss

Long ago, some 4.5 million acres or more burned annually prior to the year 1800, according to a study by UC Berkeley. But that no longer occurs at that scale.

"When we started suppressing fires 100 years ago all the time, we actually allowed a huge buildup of fuels and debris," said UC system forest advisor Susie Kocher, who is based in the Lake Tahoe region.

She is an advocate for requiring residents to clean up the extra fuel - grasses, trees, shrubs and clutter - around their homes, making them fire ready, and for more prescribed burns.

"There's a need for more frequent, low-severity fire across the landscape, so that we wouldn't have quite so much explosion in the burning in the fields that we have currently," Kocher said.

Another issue that contributes to the increase in fire fuels is that more and more people are living in areas prone to burning, according to Gonzalez with UC Berkeley.

"With more people moving into fire prone areas, the eruption of wildfire has contributed to a doubling of wildfire-related deaths and a 60% increase in wildfire-related property damage costs since 2008," he said.

How much of California would have to burn to reach a safe space, or to hit the reset and hopefully avoid extreme wildfires? A January 2020 Nature Sustainability study suggests that 20 million acres would need to be addressed with either prescribed burns or other treatment.

Although, there's been a lot of work across California to rid the state of excess brush and the more than 129 million trees killed by bark beetles during the multi-year drought in the mid 2000s, the state is nowhere close to burning that much. The Newsom administration outlined 35 areas to remove hazard trees in 2019, but that plan covered fewer than 100,000 acres.

In August, the state and federal government agreed to clean up 1 million acres by 2025, with practices such as prescribed burns. Part of that agreement also included a commitment to create a 20-year plan by next year to prioritize areas for forest-thinning. But even this plan is sliver of what's needed to protect California from devastating future wildfires.

"I think it's a good indication they're paying attention now and that we're moving in the right direction," said Michael Jones a UC system forestry advisor in Mendocino, Lake and Sonoma counties. "My hope is that once we start with a million, then it's really easy to scale up to multiple millions."

More Hot Days

Andrew Nixon / CapRadio

The recent heatwave across Northern California, where temperatures in the valley crested 110 degrees for several days, is an example of a phenomenon that scientists say could become more common in California.

In early August, a study by Stanford, UCLA and UC Merced researchers found that the number of ideal fall days for a wildfire to start - that's when some of the largest fires in the state have ignited in recent history - has jumped from four to 12 since 1979.

Final version of our (open access) paper on #ClimateChange and extreme #wildfire conditions in California is out today. I'm still planning on having a Weather West blog write-up, but I've postponed that until later due to current events. #CAwx #CAfire https://t.co/kei6rJBoZg https://t.co/nynjJZ2wBH
- Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) August 20, 2020

The increased fire danger is a result of less rain and warmer temperatures, says Goss. In the Sierra region, the researchers found the number of fire risky days are at about eight. But Goss expects that number to grow by three or four days in coming years.

These additional days result from just a one degree rise in global temperatures, says study co-author and Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh.

"Another degree of global warming on top of that, and we can be confident it will increase the occurrence of extreme wildfire weather further," he said. "The trajectory we've been on will likely lead to greater than three degrees, and potentially four or five degrees."

With just one degree, California is already experiencing some of the worst wildfires in history, droughts that last years, record heat waves, fire tornados, sea level rise - and the list goes on.

Their study isn't all grim. The authors say the goal is to demonstrate that the number of high-fire-risk days can be reduced through mitigation efforts.

"Even if there are some aspects of the climate system that are things we're not going to be able to stop at this point, there are things that we can at least do to prevent those changes from leading to disasters," Goss said.

But one of the study's authors said in August that this fall could be one of those really dry and warm seasons, which after a fiery summer wouldn't be good news for California.

"September and October both look significantly warmer than average, and most likely drier," said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain in August. "We will probably see a full extension of fire season at least through October this year."

Cleaning Up History Is Expensive

The true cost of preparing the state for wildfires will be billions and billions of dollars. And it's not one-time spending; as forests regrow, they demand continued maintenance - or, like we're witnessing in 2020, they'll burn on their own.

"You do the work and then a couple years later, you got to go back and get in there and do more work," Jones said.

California fires in 2019 cost more than $163 million to put out and the weather forecasting service AccuWeather says the economic damage wreaked by the blazes totaled $80 billion.

I think it's fair to say the fires could be just as devastating as COVID-19.

- USC economics & climate expert Adam Rose

The year-to-year, ever-increasing costs of wildfires is expected to rise as the number of days that are perfect for fire conditions also increase due to climate change.

That's something Adam Rose, an expert in economics of disasters and climate change policy at USC, is thinking about. He says the probability of fires costing more than a pandemic is very likely.

"Wildfires in one year, it's not as big as COVID, but what we should do is look at the probabilities of occurrence," Rose said. "I think it's fair to say the fires could be just as devastating as COVID-19."

And he points out the toll is more than the economic impact.

"Some places, like the city of Paradise, which was hit by the Camp Fire a couple of years ago, may never, ever, ever recover," he said. "So, the business-interruption losses are pretty sizable, as well. And then there's the human costs, and people are losing their homes and memories."

Fire, Even When Destructive, Isn't Always Bad

AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

With fires burning 1.3 million acres so far in California in 2020, the scar will be recognizable for years to come. But the fires also have burned overgrowth and could have long-term ecological benefits.

"There'll be some areas where the fire did a lot of good," said Kocher, the forestry advisor in Tahoe. "It's a chance to reset our management."

She means excess brush is gone and trees now can grow in a more spaced-out way, or can be replanted to offset the carbon that was emitted during a wildfire.

"I would say suspend judgment about whether or not this is a disaster for the landscape until we see more data on how affected our systems are," Kocher said.

Yes, the blazes this August hold immediate pain for those that love places like Big Basin Redwoods State Park, where fire burned buildings and trees. But according to Rachel Lazerri-Aerts, a San Jose State lecturer that studies the trees, the fires aren't an endgame.

"There's going to be some of the trees that aren't going to survive, but the rest of them they're going to regrow," she said.

Lazerri-Aerts says the majority of the old-growth redwoods, which could be more than 2,000 years, will likely revive. This is based on a study conducted after a fire in 2008, and found that a majority of the trees survived and grew new shoots.

"Fundamentally, the main solution to a lot of the fire problems that we have [is] taking action on climate change,"

- UC Berkeley climate change scientist Patrick Gonzalez.

Shive, with the Save the Redwoods League, says the trees are also survivors because of bark that can be a foot thick and withstand fire.

"If a fire burns up the entire crown for a lot of conifers, that can mean that's the end. But for these trees, they have the capacity to sprout along the trunk," she said.

Shive and Lazzeri-Aerts also say climate change is having negative effects on redwoods in the most southern part of the coastal range. Drought, a lack of coastal fog and warmer days are slowing growth rates.

"In the Santa Cruz mountains, we have drier conditions than the north coast, so we tend to have more fire here, anyways," Lazzeri-Aerts said. "As we continue to see climate change, because it's already drier here, it's the trees in these forests that are going to be impacted negatively compared to our north coast redwoods."

Despite the complex relationship the trees have with coastal fog and fire, overall, UC Berkeley Plant Biologist Todd Dawson says, if the warming trends, decreasing fog and drying patterns continue it could eventually spell bad news for the forests.

"If we lose fog all together, certainly there will be a negative effect because the trees definitely benefit by having it during the summer growing season ... but right now in the northern part of the range we don't see that," Dawson said.

'The Main Solution'

Prescribed burns and forest-thinning are, again, options to protect some communities from wildfires. But the reality is any and every action California is taking so far is incremental, like burning a few haystacks when there are 48 million more waiting to enter the furnace.

Some suggest the state needs to rethink the way it fights fires, from response to planning, which would take the entire restructuring of a system.

"Technically, we have all the tools to do this," Gonzalez said. "The more that people realize that proactive fire management can avoid the catastrophic wildfires ... the more people hopefully will favor proactive fire management."

Reducing the risk of megafires, like the current LNU and SZU Lightning Complex fires and past blazes like the Rim Fire near Yosemite, isn't just about burning all the extra debris. Addressing the systemic challenge - climate change - could mean fewer extreme wildfires over the course of history, Gonzalez says.

"In order to avoid dangerous climate interferences, the entire world needs to substantially reduce our emissions and eventually go to an energy system that is completely renewable," he said.

Gonzalez applauds California's action in the climate fight, such as laws that require becoming carbon neutral by 2045, and plans for emissions reductions from trucks, cars and ports. But he says even all the work the state has done is just a first step.

"Fundamentally, the main solution to a lot of the fire problems that we have [is] taking action on climate change," he said. "To be carbon-free is the ultimate end goal, and the sooner we reach that, the better it will be for nature and for people."

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wildfires in california will ‘continue to get worse

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Wildfires In California Will 'Continue To Get Worse,' Climate Change Experts Explore Why

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More than a million acres are charred black in California as the result of historic wildfires this summer. For residents like Nick Pike, whose home was destroyed by the LNU Lightning Complex fires in the hills west of Vacaville, the blazes are simply devastating. "This sucks," Pike said. "We have four kids.

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Going, Going Gone: Natural Resource Depletion

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Interactive visualizations accompanying PSE Healthy Energy's May 2020 report on public health and wildfires in California.

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Interactive visualizations accompanying PSE Healthy Energy's May 2020 report on public health and wildfires in California.

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Interactive game that teaches about the rock cycle

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Tutorial: How to Solve for Speed, Distance and Time

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Tutorial: How to Solve for Speed, Distance and Time

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Solving for Speed, Distance and Time: Jan 26, 2021 6:59 PM.webm

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California's Largest, Most Destructive Fires

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California's Largest, Most Destructive Fires