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UC Berkeley polled 726 likely voters in a 15 question survey from September 9-23. They showed Harder ahead by five points (not necessarily a guaranteed outcome).

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A telephone poll taken from October 21-25 by the New York Times made sure that they reached a large variety of people within the 501 of their survey. Their estimate is that Harder will win 47% of the vote and Denham will win 45% of the vote.

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The Garin-Hart-Yang research group also conducted a poll with 501 responders from earlier in the year, close to primary season. They showed a 48-48 percent tie.

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Support for Representative Jeff Denham (CA-10)

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Democrat
Josh Harder is a 32 year old white collar democrat with high levels of education from Stanford and Harvard. He has a degree in business and has history working in tech investment companies before running for House. Many may consider Harder to be a moderate democrat. His ideologies include medicare support for all, reducing the price of health care long-term by reducing monopolistic practices in pharmaceutical companies, supporting those connected to the DACA, changing the tax bill for equitable pay between the rich and middle to lower class, and to incorporate advanced technologies with the agriculture business to reduce drought and create new jobs. Currently, he does not wish to change gun laws in California 10; he believes that responsible gun owners should be able to own and operate their firearms.

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Republican
Jeff Denham is an incumbent congressman. He served in the US Air Force for 16 years and later went on to become a small businessmen and start a family. He hung on to his nomination by 5 points in his first race in 2010. Many may say that Denham is ideologically conservative, but his perspective can fluctuate. Many could claim that he is "notorious" for standing with Trump in many issues, especially a large number of his followers who were dependent upon the ACA, something that Denham voted to repeal. In 2016, Denham sided with Obama to expand background checks for gun ownership. He has a zero tolerance policy for separating families on the border even though he wants to limit immigration. However, he still desires to protect those under the DACA.

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The Cook Political report shows a poll from October 12th that states the district is a toss up but they guess that the election may go republican.

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“Two nonpartisan newsletters that track House races — Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia — rate the Denham-Harder race as a "toss-up." Yet the forecasting and data site FiveThirtyEight estimates there is a "5 in 8 chance" that the Democrat will win.” -CNBC

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In this race, Harder has raised 3.5 million and Denham has raised .65 million. This is a very big difference compared to other California toss-ups. Another article says that as of 9/30, Harder has raised and spent about 2 million more than denham. Most of Harder’s contributors are from out of district. Harder received more than $600,000 from New York. The majority of Denham’s money last quarter came from the DC area (160,000).

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The state of California went for Clinton with 61.5% of their votes, but the 10th district only voted for Clinton by 0-10%.

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Barack Obama is currently endorsing Harder. Obama won the district in 2012 but not 08.  The democratic president was generally approved of in California, especially towards the end of his second term. However, neither of the 2016 presidential candidates have specifically endorsed a candidate in this race. Overall, 67% of Californians disapprove of Trump, so maybe this is why he chose not to endorse in this race. It is unclear why Clinton hasn't chosen to participate in this House race A citizen's approval of their prefered candidate's sponsor will affect their vote.

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Denham voted to repeal the affordable care act, which caused some uproar. Harder is for affordable healthcare and protection for those with preexisting conditions

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Denham sides with Trump and has very conservative views. He supports spending $25 billion on border security, is for family separation, and thinks legal immigration should be curbed. Harder believes that Congress should be doing more for immigration reform, specifically policies that bring in more immigrants.

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Denham hasn't made a public statement since his moderate view in 2016. Harder says that gun owners should be able to protect their homes, but also that gun violence should be reduced and restrictions should be enacted. All of these candidates' ideals seem to be in line with their party platforms.

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- After the 2010 Census, California received 53 congressional seats, so the state wasn't forced to redraw lines, thus gerrymandering wasn't possible for this election
- 1/5 of the district is foreign-born (primarily Latin American), mainly because the tech industry relies on foreign engineering talent (district 10 is part of Sacramento Valley - rich in tech companies)
- 8 % unemployment rate
- CA 10 is 0.8 points more Republican than the average in the nation
- Including non-voters, the average Californian is a moderate who leans to the right
- both non-Hispanic whites and black Californians are slightly more likely to say that immigrants are a burden on the state (48%) rather than a benefit (44%)
- Californians are divided between those who say they are willing to pay higher taxes for more government services (48%) and those who would prefer paying fewer taxes and receiving fewer services (43%)
- Independents lean slightly democratic in California (even district 10)
- Los Angelos county and the Bay Area are the two most democratic areas in California (these two areas are key in the presidential election as well)
- In district 10 there are barely more democrats but higher republican turnout at elections

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Josh Harder will win the House race over incumbent Jeff Denham in California’s 10th district with 50.2% of the popular vote, as shown by fundraising data and polling results pointing towards his victory. Denham will receive the remaining 48%. 1.8% will go to other candidates from third-parties and write-ins.

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RealClearPolitics shows the results from a Berkeley IGS by Mark DiCamillo poll that surveyed 726 voters in a 15 question poll. The questions asked were about personal candidate approval and personal satisfaction rate, interest in the election, issue importance, and other items. UC Berkeley seems to be banking on retrospective voters, as alluded by the 6 questions that ask about approval of Trump and opinion of the candidates. The poll is very credible because all of the citizens polled were “absolutely certain” they would vote. This shows a low margin of error. The poll was taken from 9/16 to 9/23 and is dated October 5th. It shows that Harder is ahead by 5 points.

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Mcclatchy DC claims that Republicans are trying to save Denham from the immense difference in fundraising numbers. In this race, Harder has raised 3.5 million and Denham has raised .65 million. This is a very big difference compared to other California toss-ups. Denham mentioned in a debate that Harder receives out-of-district contributions. Then again, this could be another stab towards an opponent that does nothing but build a damaging reputation. Another article says that as of September 30th, Harder has raised and spent about 2 million more than Denham. Most of Harder’s contributors are from out of district. Harder received more than $600,000 from New York. The majority of Denham’s money last quarter ($160,000) came from the DC area.

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One may say that Denham, an incumbent congressman with abundant experience in the political realm, is more likely to win the California district 10 race. He has been congressman for many terms, his first win being in 2010.

Despite Denham’s past, he has made decisions that negatively impact his followers. He has sided with Trump in many situations, including voting to repeal the ACA, a health care program that large numbers of his followers were on. Another example is when he supported the tax bill that lowered taxes for the wealthy. CA 10 is chalk full of farmers, many of them financially struggling and probably, previous Denham supporters. The tax bill raised the amount they have to pay and lowered the amount for the wealthy. Because of rash actions like these, Denham has in effect lowered his own probability in winning.

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“2018 House Race Ratings.” The Cook Political Report, www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings.

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Daniels, Jeff. “California Showdown: Tight Race between GOP Congressman and Democratic Rival Gets Personal.” CNBC, CNBC, 27 Sept. 2018, www.cnbc.com/2018/09/26/california-gop-rep-jeff-denham-battles-democrat-josh-harder.html.

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Irby, Kate. “Republican Outsiders Pour Millions into Saving Denham.” Mcclatchydc, McClatchy Washington Bureau, www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article220098570.html.

Levy, Ari. “Taking on Trump: Silicon Valley Investor Returns Home to Run for Congress.” CNBC, CNBC, 12 June 2017, www.cnbc.com/2017/06/11/vc-josh-harder-is-running-for-congress-in-californias-10th-district.html.

Luna, Taryn. “California Voters Won't Give Trump a Break.” Sacbee, The Sacramento Bee, www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article210169484.html.

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Stapley, Garth. “Gloves Come off at Second Denham-Harder Debate as Candidates Trade Verbal Blows.” Modbee, The Modesto Bee, www.modbee.com/news/politics-government/election/article218866140.html.

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