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Climate crisis topping the 2019 UK General Election agendas. 

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Climate crisis topping the 2019 UK General Election agendas. 

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The climate emergency has risen to the top of the UK's election agenda in a way that would have been "unthinkable" even five years ago, leading environmentalists have said, predicting that it augurs a permanent change in British politics.

On Wednesday, Labour took the unprecedented move of putting green issues as the top section of its manifesto, the first time one of the UK's two major parties has done so. Jeremy Corbyn led the appeal to voters with policies including an £11bn windfall tax on oil and gas companies, a million new jobs in a "green industrial revolution" and commitments on moving to a net-zero carbon economy.
Jeremy Corbyn launches most radical Labour manifesto in decades
"Such focus on climate and the environment would have been almost unthinkable five years ago," said Shaun Spiers, executive director of the Green Alliance. "Tackling climate change runs through this manifesto in a way that is unprecedented from either of the main parties ahead of a UK general election."

"It would not have been possible five years ago," said Tom Burke, chairman of environmental thinktank E3G and former adviser to several governments, who said the move marked a permanent change in British politics, as younger voters in particular were "energised" over the environment. Public anxiety had been fuelled by people seeing extreme weather around the world, and the rise of climate activism in movements such as Extinction Rebellion and the school climate strikes reflected that. "The politicians are following the public on this, not the other way round."

Public concern over the climate is "unequivocal", and people "back decarbonisation by a massive margin", said Richard Black, director of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. "The UK has never had an election like this one in terms of the profile of climate change. To have all the major parties supporting a transition to net zero within a few decades, and competing with each other on policies to deliver, is unprecedented."
Labour activists united as they prepare to sell manifesto to voters
Labour disappointed many green campaigners by failing to put a date on its commitment to a net-zero carbon economy. After union pressure, a proposal to mandate the transformation by 2030 was watered down to "achieve the substantial majority of our emissions reductions by 2030", which should imply swifter and stronger action than the Tory pledge to decarbonise by 2050, but leaves room for interpretation.

There was also no frequent-flyer levy, despite increasing concern over aviation emissions from the independent Committee on Climate Change, and a heavily hedged green light on airport expansion.

"Labour's manifesto stops short of getting full marks - its policy for tackling exploding aviation emissions is not fit for purpose," said John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace UK. "And the commitments on plastic pollution and waste do not go far enough."

Ryan Shorthouse, director of the Conservative thinktank Bright Blue, accused the party of wanting too much state control in calling for nationalisation of energy, water and railways. "[The Labour manifesto] equates to a significant and unprecedented expansion of state expenditure and control. They envisage a super-spending, suffocating state. But voters are not stupid - the state cannot and should not deliver everything."

Burke believes Labour's stance on Brexit will also alienate many environmentally minded voters. "Brexit is appallingly bad for the environment. The Labour party wants to do good things on the environment and wants do that within a strong EU - Corbyn is letting them down."

However, pushing the climate emergency back to the political periphery would no longer be an option for any party, he said. "This is mainstream now."

The Liberal Democrats, while focusing on Brexit, have also made the climate emergency a key priority, promising to generate 80% of the UK's electricity from renewable sources by 2030, to bring forward to 2045 the deadline for net-zero carbon, and to expand electric vehicles and ban fracking. The Green party wants to spend £100bn a year for the next decade on the climate crisis, replacing high-carbon infrastructure and creating jobs.

This weekend, the Conservative manifesto is expected to include policies on combatting climate change, reconfirming its commitment to net-zero carbon. Next year, thanks to Theresa May's offer to the UN, the UK will host the most important international summit on the climate since the 2015 Paris agreement was signed, requiring a massive diplomatic effort if the government is to make it a success. But the party may be hampered by its recent see-sawing on environmental policies, with incentives to low-carbon development withdrawn, home insulation schemes closed and incoming housing regulations scrapped.

Spiers said: "This will be a big moment for UK politics if the Conservatives show a similar level of ambition [to Labour]."
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Climate crisis topping UK election agenda is 'unprecedented' change

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The climate emergency has risen to the top of the UK's election agenda in a way that would have been "unthinkable" even five years ago, leading environmentalists have said, predicting that it augurs a permanent change in British politics.

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What jobs do we actually do here in the UK?

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What jobs do we actually do here in the UK?

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The UK is gearing up for another election, which means politicians of all parties fighting for the votes of what they call "ordinary" or "hard-working" people.

There are record numbers of people in work in the UK, although concerns have been raised about the quality of their employment and pay levels.

So, what jobs do we do in Britain, and what might be on workers' minds?

A nation of service industry workers

When politicians want to appeal to working people, they tend to don hard hats and head to factories or construction sites.

These workplaces may look good in pictures, but they do not chime with most people's experience of work.

Fewer than one in 10 people work in manufacturing, and even fewer in construction.

In contrast, more than eight out of 10 people work in service industries.

This covers everything from bank workers to plumbers and restaurant staff - the businesses that provide work for customers, but which don't manufacture things.

These service sector jobs have grown over time: 25 years ago they made up three-quarters of employment.

Many of these jobs have been in public administration, education and health.

Not all service sector jobs are growing though.

The recent woes of the retail sector have been well documented, but its share of the overall workforce has been shrinking since 2003.

Workers are older and more likely to be female

The world of work may once have been a man's world, but that is no longer the case.

At the start of the 1970s, a little over one-third of workers were women.

But rapid growth in female employment during the 1970s and 1980s means that women now make up almost half of the workforce.

However, there are still big challenges in terms of how men and women experience work, like the enduring gender pay gap - which is about 17% for all employees and 9% among full-time staff.

Nonetheless, rising female employment has been one of the key drivers of improvements in living standards over the past 50 years.

More recently, the workforce has also grown older.

Nearly one in three people in work is now aged 50 and over, compared to just over one in five back in 1992.

This trend is being driven by rising life expectancy, the progress of the large baby boomer generation through their careers and policy changes like the increasing state pension age.

A work life less ordinary

The changing nature of work - and the jobs people do to make ends meet - has become an increasingly important issue.

Over the last decade, we've heard a lot about the rise of zero-hours contracts, and the emerging gig economy.

The term is often used to describe short-term casual work, although there is some disagreement about exactly what it means and the number of jobs it includes.

However, what is clear is that ways of working that might be thought of as less traditional have increased.

In the UK, there are nearly five million self-employed people, from highly-paid management consultants to delivery drivers - an increase of more than 50% since the turn of the millennium.

In addition, there are 870,000 workers on zero-hours contracts, 770,000 agency workers and 1.5 million temporary workers.

These forms of employment grew markedly in the mid-2010s. But their share of the labour market has fallen slightly since then, as Britain's employment rate has risen.

It may be that firms have had to improve work conditions - for example by offering permanent, fixed-hours contracts - as they find it harder to recruit.

But these falls have been small, suggesting this type of working isn't going anywhere.

A traditional full-time job is still the norm

Although the world of work is evolving, it is still the case that most people have what might be called traditional jobs.

Nearly two-thirds of people in work have full-time roles for an employer - a proportion that has fallen only slightly since the early 1990s.

But what constitutes a day's work has changed over time. For the past 150 years, we have consistently chosen to work less, as average hourly pay has risen.

The average working week is now 32 hours long, down from 56 a century ago.

But, since the 2007-8 financial crisis, our working week has stopped shrinking, possibly because wage stagnation has meant that workers are keen to make extra cash.

The minimum wage has helped low earners

For most people, living standards are determined by whether they have a job - and how much they get paid.

For the lowest-paid workers, the introduction of the National Minimum Wage in 1999 set a minimum hourly rate for the first time.

It has since risen faster than both inflation and average earnings. As a result, hourly pay for the lowest earners has risen nearly twice as fast as average pay over the past 20 years.

The National Living Wage - the higher wage floor for workers aged 25 and over - has taken the minimum wage to new heights.

Pay is improving - but not for everyone

Britain has experienced an unprecedented pay squeeze over the past decade. But in 2019 the picture has been more positive, with real pay growth approaching its pre-crisis average of about 2% a year.

Average pay looks set to finally surpass its August 2007 peak later this year.

Some groups are still in the middle of a pay downturn. They include thirty-somethings, many of whom entered the labour market at the height of the financial crisis, along with public sector workers and those in the south-east.

The possible return to "peak pay" is an important living standards milestone. But had pay consistently grown at 2% per year, rather than getting stuck in a 12-year downturn, then the average weekly salary today would be £138 higher.
About this piece
This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from an expert working for an outside organisation.

Laura Gardiner is research director at the Resolution Foundation, specialising in the labour market.

The Resolution Foundation describes itself as a think tank that works to improve the living standards of those on low to middle incomes.

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The UK is gearing up for another election, which means politicians of all parties fighting for the votes of what they call "ordinary" or "hard-working" people. There are record numbers of people in work in the UK, although concerns have been raised about the quality of their employment and pay levels.

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Bigger hurricanes are now more damaging due to climate change.

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The biggest and most damaging hurricanes are now three times more frequent than they were 100 years ago, say researchers.

Using a new method of calculating the destruction, the scientists say the increase in frequency is "unequivocal".

Previous attempts to isolate the impact of climate change on hurricanes have often came up with conflicting results.

But the new study says the increase in damage caused by these big cyclones is linked by global warming.

Hurricanes or tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive natural disasters. The damage inflicted by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was estimated to be $125bn, roughly 1% of US GDP.

One of the big questions that scientists have wrestled with is how to compare storm events from different eras. Is the increase in financial damages recorded over the last century simply down to the fact there are now more people living in the paths of hurricanes, who are generally wealthier?

Previous research has concluded that the rise in damages was related to wealth, and not to any statistically significant change in frequency.

However this new paper challenges that view.

Instead of looking at economic damage, the authors looked at the amount of land that was totally destroyed by more than 240 storms between 1900 and 2018, based on insurance industry databases.

As an example, the researchers examined Hurricane Irma that hit Florida in 2017.

Around 1.1 million people were living inside the 10,000 sq km closest to the storm's landfall.

With the wealth per capita estimated to be $194,000, the scientists concluded that the overall wealth in this 10,000 sq km region was $215bn.

As the storm caused $50bn worth of damage, this was 23% of the wealth in the region. Taking 23% of the 10,000 sq km gave an area of total destruction of 2,300 sq km.

By working out similar figures for events across the last century, the researchers were able to make what they say are more realistic comparisons in terms of damage over the decades.

The authors found that the frequency of the most damaging hurricanes had increased by a rate of 330% per century.

And they believe that is mainly due to rising temperatures.

"Our data reveal an emergent positive trend in damage which we attribute to a detectable change in extreme storms due to global warming," they write.

The scientists involved believe their new method is solid and gives a more accurate picture of what is happening with the worst storms.

"The new method of looking at the frequencies is really robust," said Aslak Grinsted, from the University of Copenhagen, who carried out the study.

"The increase in frequency is not only in my own dataset but is also present in other datasets, so it is extremely robust, and I think that will help it become more accepted."

The study has been published in the journal PNAS.

Follow Matt on Twitter.

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Warming makes bigger hurricanes more damaging

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The biggest and most damaging hurricanes are now three times more frequent than they were 100 years ago, say researchers. Using a new method of calculating the destruction, the scientists say the increase in frequency is "unequivocal". Previous attempts to isolate the impact of climate change on hurricanes have often came up with conflicting results.

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Impact of flooding on people and property.

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About 500 homes have been flooded in Doncaster with more than 1,000 properties evacuated in areas hit by the rising waters, including the village of Fishlake where residents have complained about the lack of warnings.

So what are the factors that have made these floods so damaging, and are they a taste of what the future might bring? Environment correspondent Matt McGrath has been looking at the likely causes of the floods along the Don.

Do we know why Fishlake has had such large floods?

There are numerous factors at play, but in essence Fishlake has been caught in a pincer movement with two rivers, the Don and Ea Beck both bursting their banks into an area that was heavily sodden from rain over a period of weeks.

Making matters worse is the fact that Fishlake is built on what was once a boggy fenland, that was drained many years ago.

"Fishlake is on the edge of the Great Humberhead levels which was a massive fenland and huge peat bog until the 1700s," said Prof Ian Rotherham from Sheffield Hallam University.

"By 1900, almost the entirety had gone. We drained the landscape and we've built on it."

Where did all the water come from?

There was a dramatic and sustained downpour last week with South Yorkshire receiving the equivalent of a month of rain in just one day.

But the situation was made worse because, according to experts, there was nothing to slow down the flow of the water in the River Don.

"This water is coming from the uplands, it is coming from the Peak District, from the Pennines," said Prof Rotherham.

"And what we have had there is the massive removal of peat by cutting, the burning of heather moorland and of course drainage, and instead of holding the water back in the uplands, it shoots downstream.

"All the way along we have straightened the rivers and drained the flood lands. The water rushes down. It is not being held back and it spews out across the lowlands and that's what happened here."

Have the flood defences installed in recent years simply moved the problem along?

There were severe floods in the Sheffield area back in 2007. Two people died and hundreds were evacuated.

In the aftermath, there were significant investments in new defences, with six protection schemes put in place around the city at a cost of £83m.

It involved the construction of more than 60 new flood protection measures along a five-mile stretch of the River Don.

The Environment Agency said that these flood defences managed to significantly reduce the impact of last Thursday's inundation.

But defences can only go so far. Too often, severe floods will find the weakest point.

"In Sheffield, the main factories and other areas that were smashed back in 2007 are now protected," said Prof Rotherham.

"However, if you are keeping the water out of there, you are moving it faster downstream, and they get smashed even worse."

Are we protecting cities at the expense of the countryside?

The Environment Agency examine each flood protection scheme in the light of how it will benefit people and property. Rural areas aren't avoided, but urban areas generally need more protection.

"You might argue that's appropriate as there are more people and properties in urban areas, so it is not necessarily a bad thing," said Dr Liz Sharp from the University of Sheffield.

"If you accept it is going to rain more, and we don't have an infinite pot of money, then decisions need to be reached about what the priorities need to be."

Some flood experts say that rural areas are getting a raw deal at the moment.

"We don't have enough resources to protect all those people in rural areas and that really isn't good enough because those people are just as important as those who live in urban areas," said Prof Hannah Cloke, from the University of Reading.

"I think we need to prioritise everyone, we all have the same rights to be protected from floods wherever we live."

Is government funding for flooding having an impact?

The government say they are already investing £2.6bn over six years, in more than 1,000 projects to protect 300,000 homes from flooding and coastal erosion.

But the view among experts is that there simply isn't enough in the right places at the right time.

"There is a lack of resource in the Environment Agency and in the lead local flood authorities to undertake flood risk analysis and all the warning activities," said Prof Cloke.

"So they really are working on a shoestring in certain places. We've really got to sort out the funding so they are working together better. They are thinly staffed in places and that can be a problem in sorting out these issues."

Another challenge is that the funding seems to follow the areas that suffer disasters rather than going to the areas most in need.

"Somerset got a huge amount of publicity for flooding in 2013, but compare that to Hull in 2007 where 8,000 homes were inundated, and really the latter should have been the higher priority," said Dr Sharp.

"Attention should be given to where the needs are."

Would dredging the Don have helped?

Local residents in Fishlake say that their situation would have been improved if the Don had been dredged.

"It is a tidal river here, bringing in sand and silt from the Humber, and we have all the water coming off the hills around Sheffield," Fred Turner, 71, told the BBC.

"At high tides it is coming the other way too and Fishlake is in the middle."

But many experts say that by itself dredging is not enough.

"It can be a good way of moving water from A to B," said Dr Liz Sharp from the University of Sheffield.

"But this may cause flooding at B, and this is the challenge with flood walls and dredging. They are just faster at conveying water, the more contemporary approach is to make space for the water."

Dr Sharp gives the example of the Rother Valley Park, where they have converted land that was once used for mining into a series of lakes that hold back more water when it rains and that has contributed to reducing flood threats in Doncaster.

Are there too many agencies involved?

The Environment Agency tends to look after the bigger rivers while there are dozens of internal drainage boards that have responsibility for managing water levels in areas across England. For smaller streams, local authorities usually have responsibility. All this means there is some potential for confusion.

"We have different authorities in charge of different parts of flooding and that can be a problem," said Prof Cloke.

"We have seen some steps forward since the flooding in 2007 with the Met Office and Environment Agency working much more closely together and that collaboration has been really valuable."

Were the warnings given in South Yorkshire adequate?

Local people in Fishlake have complained that they were told that their properties were safe hours before the water rushed in last week.

But forecasting the flow of water is very difficult indeed, especially when it gets down to local street level. Often you don't have just have one form of flooding such as a threat from rivers, you also have what's termed surface water flooding where rainwater is unable to drain away.

That type of flood often depends on how much rain is falling on a particular place and how much the land is able to absorb. In Fishlake and surrounding areas, there has been heavy rain for weeks, leading to sodden ground.

Is climate change likely to overwhelm even the best defences?

The physical facts of a warming world mean that the air can now hold more moisture. This means that downpours are heavier and likely to cause more flooding.

According to the UK Met Office, the amount of rain from extremely wet days in the UK has increased by 17% in the most recent decade (2008-2017) compared to 1961-1990.

There are things we can do to ensure that we adapt to cope with changes we are now seeing.

"We can have earlier warnings to get people out of the way, so they know what to do to protect their homes and businesses," said Hannah Cloke.

"We can retro-fit houses so they are more resilient to floods, and if we have to build on the flood plain, if there is nowhere else to build, then we can do it cleverly - by building on stilts and making those properties safe to live in."

Is what we've seen in Yorkshire a vision of the future?

"Yes it is a foretaste of the future," said Dr Liz Sharp.

"It will happen in different places, we need to be expecting this to happen more often."

Other experts agree that the future environment will be a challenge.

"We're running behind with climate change - we need to really speed up if we are going to keep on top of the problems that are being exacerbated by the change in the climate," said Prof Cloke.

"We don't really have the right infrastructure in place for the next 25 years to 50 years and that is very frightening."

Follow Matt on Twitter.

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What are the factors making floods worse?

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About 500 homes have been flooded in Doncaster with more than 1,000 properties evacuated in areas hit by the rising waters, including the village of Fishlake where residents have complained about the lack of warnings. So what are the factors that have made these floods so damaging, and are they a taste of what the future might bring?

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UK North-South Divide for flood defence funding.  

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UK North-South Divide for flood defence funding.  

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South East of UK to receive five times more funding than the North per head for flood defences. Is this fair?

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The south-east of England is to receive five times more money per head for flood defences in the coming years than parts of the north which suffered some of the worst damage during last winter's series of storms, an analysis of Government figures has revealed.

The region's share of the £4.1 billion set aside by ministers to spend on new flood prevention schemes over the next five years and beyond is set to be much higher per person than anywhere else in England, prompting accusations that communities devastated by the recent floods have already been "forgotten".

The south-east is to receive £167 per head on new flood defence and coastal erosion schemes, the figures show. The sum is almost double the £92 per person earmarked for Yorkshire and the Humber, and more than five times the £30 set to be spent in the North West - all of which were badly affected by the winter storms.

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Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

The apparent north-south divide appears to undermine comments made by David Cameron during a visit to flood-hit York in December, when he claimed that the Government was spending "more per head on flood defences in the north of England than we do in the south of England".

The figures are contained within a breakdown of spending in the new national infrastructure delivery plan published by the Government last week, which outlines £4.1bn of capital investment in schemes from 2016/2017 to 2022 and beyond, including major projects in Oxford, Lincolnshire, London and the Fylde Peninsula in Lancashire.

An analysis by the Press Association of the six major projects and 23 programmes set to receive funding from next year shows that £75 per person will be spent in the East Midlands, £57 per person in the South West and £40 in Eastern England. In the North East, spending per person will be just £33.

The apparent inconsistency is likely to fuel anger among communities in the north affected by last winter's severe flooding. In December, Leeds City Council leader Judith Blake said the floods were a "preventable disaster" exacerbated by an "unequal distribution of resources" by the Government.

Alex Cunningham, the shadow Environment Minister and Labour MP for Stockton North, said: "These figures will be of real concern to communities who feel forgotten by the Government, particularly those who have suffered several flooding incidents in recent years."

The regional breakdown does not take into account around £700 million of the £4.1 billion described as spending in "England", part of which is £120m earmarked for additional flood defences in areas including York, the Calder Valley and Cumbria.

A spokeswoman for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said the per person figures were "misleading" because they did not take into account projects where the benefits would cross different regional boundaries, proposed schemes that were still being assessed and spending on maintenance.

"Rainfall does not respect man-made regional boundaries so the Government spends money on flood defences and flood recovery where it is needed most, whether that's north, south, east or west," she added. "We are exceeding the Government's manifesto commitment by building 1,500 flood defence schemes that will better protect 300,000 more homes."

In Scotland, local councils are responsible for flood defence investment but many are having to cope on increasingly tight budgets. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency, which is responsible for flood forecasting, is having its budget cut by £2.4m in the next financial year.

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South to get five times more flood funding than the North per head

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The south-east of England is to receive five times more money per head for flood defences in the coming years than parts of the north which suffered some of the worst damage during last winter's series of storms, an analysis of Government figures has revealed.

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Schools closed, flights diverted, construction work halted due to unbearable smog blanketing northern India.

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Air pollution in the north of India has "reached unbearable levels," the capital Delhi's Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal says.

In many areas of Delhi air quality deteriorated into the "hazardous" category, with the potential to cause respiratory illnesses.

Low visibility caused more than 30 flights to be diverted on Sunday.

Rules have now gone into effect allowing only cars with odd or even number plates to drive on given days.

The initiative is aimed at getting more vehicles off the road in an effort to curb air pollution.

Schools in Delhi have been ordered to close until Tuesday, and construction has been halted.

Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain advised the city's residents to "avoid outdoor physical activities, especially during morning and late evening hours".

The advisory also said people should wear anti-pollution masks, avoid polluted areas and keep doors and windows closed.

What's caused the pollution?

A major factor behind the high pollution levels at this time of year is farmers in neighbouring states burning crop stubble to clear their fields.

This creates a lethal cocktail of particulate matter, carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide - all worsened by fireworks set off during the Hindu festival Diwali a week ago.

Vehicle fumes, construction and industrial emissions have also contributed to the smog.

Indians are hoping that scattered rainfall over the coming week will wash away the pollutants but this is not due until Thursday.
How bad is the smog?
Levels of dangerous particles in the air - known as PM2.5 - are far higher than recommended and about seven times higher than in the Chinese capital Beijing.

An Indian health ministry official said the city's pollution monitors did not have enough digits to accurately record pollution levels, which he called a "disaster".

Five million masks were handed out in schools on Friday as officials declared a public health emergency and Mr Kejriwal likened the city to a "gas chamber".

The World Health Organization (WHO) says a third of deaths from stroke, lung cancer and heart disease are due to air pollution.

"This is having an equivalent effect to that of smoking tobacco," the WHO says on its website.

How are people reacting?

Mr Kejriwal's most recent comments are unlikely to please government officials, reports the BBC's South Asia regional editor Jill McGivering. She said Indian politicians were blaming each other for the conditions.

On Sunday young people in Delhi came out to protest and demand action.

"You can obviously see how terrible it is and it's actually scary you can't see things in front of you," said Jaivipra.

She said she wanted long-term and sustainable anti-pollution measures put in place.

"We are concerned about our futures and about our health but we are also fighting this on behalf of the children and the elderly who bear the biggest brunt of the problem here," she said.

Some ministers have sparked controversy on social media by suggesting light-hearted measures to stay healthy.

Harsh Vardhan, the union minister for health and family welfare, urged people to eat carrots to protect against "night blindness" and "other pollution-related harm to health".

Meanwhile, Prakash Javadekar, the minister of the environment, suggested that you should "start your day with music", adding a link to a "scintillating thematic composition".

"Is that the reason you have turned deaf ears to our plight on pollution?" one Twitter user responded. "Seems you are too busy hearing music that you are not able to hear us!"

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India air pollution at 'unbearable levels'

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Air pollution in the north of India has "reached unbearable levels," the capital Delhi's Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal says. In many areas of Delhi air quality deteriorated into the "hazardous" category, with the potential to cause respiratory illnesses. Low visibility caused more than 30 flights to be diverted on Sunday.

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India air pollution at 'unbearable levels'

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India air pollution at 'unbearable levels'

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Air pollution in the north of India has "reached unbearable levels," the capital Delhi's Chief Minister Arvid Kejriwal says.

Air quality in Delhi reached the "hazardous" category on Sunday.

Schools have been closed, more than 30 flights diverted and construction work halted as the city sits in a thick blanket of smog.

Mr Kejriwal called on the central government to provide relief and tackle the toxic pollution.

Levels of dangerous particles in the air - known as PM2.5 - are far higher than recommended and about seven times higher than in the Chinese capital Beijing.

Five million masks were handed out in schools on Friday as officials declared a public health emergency and Mr Kejriwal likened the city to a "gas chamber".

Mr Kejriwal's most recent comments are unlikely to please government officials, reports the BBC's South Asia regional editor Jill McGivering. She said Indian politicians were blaming each other for the conditions.

On Sunday young people in Delhi came out to protest and demand action.

"You can obviously see how terrible it is and it's actually scary you can't see things in front of you," said Jaivipra.

She said she wanted long-term and sustainable anti-pollution measures put in place.

"We are concerned about our futures and about our health but we are also fighting this on behalf of the children and the elderly who bear the biggest brunt of the problem here," she said.

What's caused the smog?

A major factor behind the high pollution levels at this time of year is farmers in neighbouring states burning crop stubble to clear their fields.

This creates a lethal cocktail of particulate matter, carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide - all worsened by fireworks set off during the Hindu festival Diwali a week ago.

Vehicle fumes, construction and industrial emissions have also contributed to the smog.

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India air pollution at 'unbearable levels'

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Air pollution in the north of India has "reached unbearable levels," the capital Delhi's Chief Minister Arvid Kejriwal says. Air quality in Delhi reached the "hazardous" category on Sunday. Schools have been closed, more than 30 flights diverted and construction work halted as the city sits in a thick blanket of smog.

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Fracking banned in UK as government makes major U-turn | Environment | The Guardian

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The government has halted fracking in England with immediate effect in a watershed moment for environmentalists and community activists.

Ministers also warned shale gas companies it would not support future fracking projects, in a crushing blow to companies that had been hoping to capitalise on one of the new frontiers of growth in the fossil fuel industry.

The decision draws a line under years of bitter opposition to the controversial extraction process in a major victory for green groups and local communities.

The decision was taken after a new scientific study warned it was not possible to rule out "unacceptable" consequences for those living near fracking sites.

The report, undertaken by the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), also warned it was not possible to predict the magnitude of earthquakes fracking might trigger.

Fracking, also known as hydraulic fracturing, involves pumping water, chemicals and sand underground at high pressure to fracture shale rock and release trapped oil and gas.

The government said it would not agree to any future fracking "until compelling new evidence is provided" that proves fracking could be safe. The UK's only active fracking site at Preston New Road in Lancashire was brought to an immediate halt this summer after fracking triggered multiple earth tremors that breached the government's earthquake limits.

Andrea Leadsom, the business and energy secretary, said the government has always been clear that shale gas exploration in the UK must be carried out safely.

"After reviewing the OGA's report into recent seismic activity at Preston New Road, it is clear that we cannot rule out future unacceptable impacts on the local community. For this reason, I have concluded that we should put a moratorium on fracking in England with immediate effect," she said.

The moratorium marks a major U-turn for the Conservative party and the prime minister Boris Johnson, who once referred to fracking as "glorious news for humanity" and urged the UK to "leave no stone unturned, or unfracked" in pursuit of shale gas.

The government ended its support for the struggling industry less than a week after a damning report from Whitehall's spending watchdog found its plans to establish fracking across the UK was dragging years behind schedule and had cost the taxpayer at least £32m so far without producing any energy in return.

Rebecca Newsom, the head of politics at Greenpeace UK, said it has "been clear for some time that the government's big bet on fracking is bust".

The decision has been welcomed as a "victory for common sense" by green groups and campaigners who have fought for almost a decade against the controversial fossil fuel extraction process.

Craig Bennett, the chief executive of Friends of the Earth, said: "This moratorium is a tremendous victory for communities and the climate. For nearly a decade local people across the country have fought a David and Goliath battle against this powerful industry. We are proud to have been part of that fight."

Tom Fyans, from CPRE, said the countryside charity would "celebrate alongside the local communities, campaigners and environmentalists who have been campaigning valiantly to stop fracking for many years".

Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is a way of extracting natural gas from shale rock formations that are often deep underground. It involves pumping water, chemicals and usually sand underground at high pressure to fracture shale - hence the name - and release the gas trapped within to be collected back at the surface.

The technology has transformed the US energy landscape in the last decade, owing to the combination of high-volume fracking - 1.5m gallons of water per well, on average - and the relatively modern ability to drill horizontally into shale after a vertical well has been drilled.

In England, the government placed a moratorium on fracking in November 2019 after protests, legal challenges and planning rejections. A year earlier, the energy company Cuadrilla was forced to stop work at its Preston New Road site in Lancashire twice in four days due to minor earthquakes occurring while it was fracking. The tremors breached a seismic threshold imposed after fracking caused minor earthquakes at a nearby Cuadrilla site in 2011. In March 2019 the high court ruled that the government's fracking guidelines were unlawful because they had failed to sufficiently consider scientific evidence against fracking.

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"This is a fantastic win for local democracy and everyone who cares about protecting the countryside from climate catastrophe and mass industrialisation," he said.

Rebecca Long Bailey MP, the shadow business and energy secretary, said the moratorium was a victory for local people and the government owed them an apology. She said: "When the Tory government overruled local democratic decisions to halt fracking, communities did not give up. When fracking protesters went to jail, communities did not give up. And now they have forced the government to U-turn.

"The Tories owe the public an apology, and an explanation of how much public money they wasted while ignoring the science."

Long-Bailey said the government could yet allow fracking to restart. "The next Labour government will ban fracking - whereas the Tories will only call a temporary halt to it. You can't trust a word the prime minister says."

The government revealed its fracking moratium alongside plans for a major review of the UK's transition to a green economy. The Treasury said it will assess how the UK can make the most of the economic green shoots which are expected to emerge while moving towards a carbon neutral economy by 2050.

Sajid Javid, the chancellor, said the review was a vital next step" in delivering the government's 2050 climate target while "supporting growth and lancing costs" to avoid "placing unfair burdens on families or businesses".

"We must all play a part in protecting the planet for future generations," he added.

The Treasury's support for a green economy comes after Downing Street shot down claims made by the former chancellor, Philip Hammond, that tackling the climate crisis would cost £1tn and require spending cuts for schools, hospitals and the police force.

In a swift rebuke, No 10 said plans to create a net zero-carbon economy would cost no more than the UK's existing plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The interim report will be published in the spring, ahead of a final report in the autumn before the global UN climate talks, which will take place in Glasgow.

Simon Clarke, the exchequer secretary to the Treasury, said it was "humbling to launch this unprecedented review into how we end the UK's contribution to climate change".

"Until recently people said that 'Net Zero' was impossible, but this work is a giant step towards making it happen, enabling us to set out a roadmap for an economy that is cleaner, more efficient, and works for everyone, while preserving our planet," he said.

* This article was corrected on 2 November 2019 to make clear that the government has halted, but not banned fracking as stated in an earlier version, and that the moratorium applies only to England as it is a devolved issue. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland already have measures in place against fracking.
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Fracking halted in England in major government U-turn

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The government has halted fracking in England with immediate effect in a watershed moment for environmentalists and community activists. Ministers also warned shale gas companies it would not support future fracking projects, in a crushing blow to companies that had been hoping to capitalise on one of the new frontiers of growth in the fossil fuel industry.

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At least nine people are reported dead as Japan recovers from its biggest storm in decades.

Typhoon Hagibis triggered floods and landslides as it battered the country with wind speeds of 225km/h (140mph).

Rivers have breached their banks in at least 14 different places, inundating residential neighbourhoods.

The storm led to some Rugby World Cup matches being cancelled but a key fixture between Japan and Scotland will go ahead on Sunday.

Hagibis is heading north and is expected to move back into the North Pacific later on Sunday.

In pictures: Typhoon Hagibis hits Japan

It made landfall on Saturday shortly before 19:00 local time (10:00 GMT), in Izu Peninsula, south-west of Tokyo and moved up the east coast. Almost half a million homes were left without power.

In the town of Hakone near Mount Fuji more than 1m (3ft) of rain fell on Friday and Saturday, the highest total ever recorded in Japan over 48 hours.

Further north in Nagano prefecture, levees along the Chikuma river gave way sending water rushing through residential areas, inundating houses. Flood defences around Tokyo have held and river levels are now falling, reports the BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes in Japan.

Officials said some of those killed were swept away by landslides while others were trapped in their cars as floodwaters rose. Another 15 people are listed as missing and dozens are reported injured.

What preparations were made?

More than seven million people were urged to leave their homes as the huge storm approached, but it is thought only 50,000 stayed in shelters.

Many residents stocked up on provisions before the typhoon's arrival, leaving supermarkets with empty shelves.

"Unprecedented heavy rain has been seen in cities, towns and villages for which the emergency warning was issued," Japan's Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecaster Yasushi Kajiwara told a press briefing.

Many bullet train services were halted, and several lines on the Tokyo metro were suspended for most of Saturday.

All flights to and from Tokyo's Haneda airport and Narita airport in Chiba have been cancelled - more than 1,000 in total.

Two Rugby World Cup games scheduled for Saturday were cancelled on safety grounds and declared as draws - England-France and New Zealand-Italy. The cancellations were the first in the tournament's 32-year history.

Sunday's Namibia-Canada match due to take place in Kamaishi was also cancelled and declared a draw.

The US-Tonga fixture in Osaka and Wales-Uruguay in Kumamoto will go ahead as scheduled on Sunday, organisers said.

Meanwhile, a crunch game between Scotland and tournament hosts Japan on Sunday will now go ahead. The decision followed a safety inspection.

Scotland against Japan to go ahead

The Japanese Formula One Grand Prix is also taking place on Sunday.

Vettel in pole position for Japanese Grand Prix

'A blanket and a biscuit'

Local resident James Babb spoke to the BBC from an evacuation centre in Hachioji, western Tokyo. He said the river near his house was on the brink of overflowing.

"I am with my sister-in-law, who is disabled," he said. "Our house may flood. They have given us a blanket and a biscuit."

Andrew Higgins, an English teacher who lives in Tochigi, north of Tokyo, told the BBC he had "lived through a few typhoons" during seven years in Japan.

"I feel like this time Japan, generally, has taken this typhoon a lot more seriously," he said. "People were out preparing last night. A lot of people were stocking up."

Only last month Typhoon Faxai wreaked havoc on parts of Japan, damaging 30,000 homes, most of which have not yet been repaired.

"I evacuated because my roof was ripped off by the other typhoon and rain came in. I'm so worried about my house," a 93-year-old man told NHK, from a shelter in Tateyama, Chiba.

Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones: What's the difference?

Japan suffers about 20 typhoons a year, but Tokyo is rarely hit on this scale.

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Japan counts cost of biggest typhoon in decades

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At least nine people are reported dead as Japan recovers from its biggest storm in decades. Typhoon Hagibis triggered floods and landslides as it battered the country with wind speeds of 225km/h (140mph). Rivers have breached their banks in at least 14 different places, inundating residential neighbourhoods.

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Japan braces itself for worst typhoon in decades. 

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Japan braces itself for worst typhoon in decades. 

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Japan is bracing itself for what could be its heaviest rain and winds for 60 years as Typhoon Hagibis edges closer.

Hagibis is hitting winds of 180km/h (111mph) which could cause floods and landslides, the Japan Meteorological Agency says.

The typhoon is expected to hit the most populous island of Honshu on Saturday.

Shops, factories and train networks have been shut down while the Rugby World Cup and the Formula One Grand Prix are facing disruption.

Japanese Grand Prix qualifying postponed

Authorities have issued evacuation advisories in areas at particular risk, while supermarkets are running low on stocks as people buy supplies before the typhoon hits.

What do we know about the typhoon?

Hagibis, which means "speed" in the Philippine language Tagalog, is due to hit Japan on Saturday.

Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones: What's the difference?

It could be the strongest storm the country has faced since Kanogawa Typhoon in 1958, which left more than 1,200 people dead or missing.

"The typhoon could bring record-level rainfall and winds," an official at the meteorological agency said, citing the risk of floods and landslides.

What will be affected?

The typhoon has been making the most headlines due to its disruption of the Rugby World Cup and Japanese Grand Prix.

Two World Cup games billed for Saturday have already been cancelled, and declared as draws, while Formula 1 has cancelled all activities at the Japanese Grand Prix on Saturday.

But the impact on the local population could be serious.

People have been stocking up on provisions for the coming days on the advice of authorities, leaving supermarkets with bare shelves.

Only last month Typhoon Faxai wreaked havoc on areas of the country, damaging 30,000 homes, most of which have not yet been repaired.

Evacuation centres have been opened in some coastal areas.

Transport systems have also been affected, with bullet trains and flights cancelled.

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Japan braces itself for worst typhoon in decades

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Japan is bracing itself for what could be its heaviest rain and winds for 60 years as Typhoon Hagibis edges closer. Hagibis is hitting winds of 180km/h (111mph) which could cause floods and landslides, the Japan Meteorological Agency says. The typhoon is expected to hit the most populous island of Honshu on Saturday.

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England Rugby World Cup match called off due to Typhoon Hahibis

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England Rugby World Cup match called off due to Typhoon Hahibis

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England's Rugby World Cup Pool C match against France on Saturday has been called off because of Typhoon Hagibis.

World Rugby is expected to provide official confirmation of the cancellation at 04:00 BST on Thursday.

Hagibis is moving towards Japan and expected to make landfall on Saturday.

England were due to meet France in Yokohama. There is no news yet on Scotland's Pool A match against Japan, which is scheduled to take place in the same stadium on Sunday.

If the Scotland-Japan match was to be cancelled, under tournament rules Gregor Townsend's side are likely be knocked out of the World Cup.

Cancelled matches are declared a draw with both sides awarded two points each.

England and France have already qualified for the quarter-finals and their match was due to decide top spot in Pool C.

The cancellation means Eddie Jones' side, who lead the French by two points, will progress as winners and face a probable quarter-final against Australia, with Wales expected to top Pool D and therefore play France.

Scotland are third in Pool A on 10 points with leaders Japan on 14 and need to beat the hosts to go through, potentially relying on bonus points.

If second-placed Ireland beat Samoa in Fukuoka on Saturday, a weather-enforced two-point haul would mean Scotland finish third in Pool A and go out.

It has been suggested Scotland's match with Japan could delayed by 24 hours, even though that would be against tournament rules.

BBC weather presenter and meteorologist Simon King said Hagibis is "one of the most powerful tropical cyclones this year".

World Rugby tournament director Alan Gilpin and Akira Shimazu, chief executive of Japan Rugby 2019, are due to attend Thursday's 04:00 news conference.

What is the forecast?

A Met Office spokesperson said on Wednesday that Typhoon Hagibis was in the western North Pacific and on track to hit Japan this weekend.

It was located around 900 miles south of Tokyo with estimated wind speeds of around 120mph and gusts of 170mph.

The Met Office says strong and severe winds, very heavy rain and large waves mean a risk of flash flooding in the Tokyo region.

Yokohama is approximately 17 miles south of Tokyo.

King explained: "It is equivalent to a category five hurricane, making it one of the most powerful tropical cyclones around the world this year.

"The typhoon will start to weaken as it continues its track northward. However, forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning centre and the Japanese Meteorological Service suggest it will make landfall in southern Honshu, around the Tokyo area on Saturday lunchtime UK time.

"By this point, it'll still be categorised as a 'very strong typhoon' with wind gusts in excess of 100mph and bring between 200-500mm of rain.

"This will be significant in a built-up area such as Tokyo with damage and flooding expected."

Could it change before the weekend?

"Yes, it could," added King.

"Forecasting the path of a typhoon is a tricky one and while there is growing confidence of a landfall near to Tokyo, it still could shift path slightly, even up to 24 hours before time.

"However, Typhoon Hagibis is huge, covering a diameter of around 500 miles.

"On landfall, the most powerful winds are expected to extend out 60 miles from its centre. Therefore, even if the location of direct landfall changes, the winds, flooding rain and impacts will still be felt over a large area."

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Rugby World Cup: England-France match called off because of Typhoon Hagibis

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England's Rugby World Cup Pool C match against France on Saturday has been called off because of Typhoon Hagibis. World Rugby is expected to provide official confirmation of the cancellation at 04:00 BST on Thursday. Hagibis is moving towards Japan and expected to make landfall on Saturday.

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Scientists estimate Earth's total carbon store - BBC News

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There are 1.85 billion, billion tonnes of carbon on Earth, with more than 99% of it resident beneath our feet.

Scientists from the Deep Carbon Observatory (DCO) project have spent 10 years assessing the "reservoirs and fluxes" of the chemical element.

In other words, they worked out where carbon is held and in what form, and how it moves through the Earth system.

The findings could help understand the limits of life on our planet and in the forecasting of volcanic eruptions.

"This work really came out of the realisation that much of the carbon that we are concerned about for climate change is only a tiny fraction of our planet's carbon. More than 90% of it is actually in the interior of the Earth - in the crust, in the mantle and the core," said Prof Marie Edmonds from Cambridge University, UK.

"Very little was known about its form, how much there was, and how mobile it is. And, obviously, this all has huge importance for both the climate of the Earth, but also the habitability of our surface environment," the DCO collaborator told BBC News.

CO2 emissions reach 'all-time high'

The vast scale of life beneath our feet

Humans help cook up mineral bounty

The accounting was a painstaking process that included monitoring gas emissions from major volcanoes and examining the deep-sea muds that are drawn, or subducted, into the Earth's interior at tectonic plate boundaries.

Through the use of lab experiments and models, the team was then able to simulate the likely stores and flows of carbon.

Just two-tenths of 1% of Earth's total carbon - about 43,500 billion tonnes - is judged to be above the planet's surface, in the oceans, on land, and in the atmosphere. Everything else is in the deep reservoir, with two-thirds of the total contained within the core.

In a fascinating exercise, the DCO attempted to describe how this inventory has changed through time. Working with the University of Sydney, it has reconstructed the history of plate tectonics - to in effect replay the movie of the Earth's inner workings.

This revealed that the planet's carbon budget through much of the last billion years has been in a relatively steady state. Put another way, the carbon that has been drawn down into the Earth's interior is roughly equal to what has been outgassed to the atmosphere through the likes of volcanoes.

Every now and then, however, there have been major catastrophic perturbations in this cycle.

These disturbances were the result of asteroid impacts or prolonged, large-scale volcanism that put substantial volumes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere - leading to warming, acidified oceans, and even mass extinctions.

The suspicion, of course, is that we are now in another of these great perturbations.

Over the past 100 years, carbon emissions from human activities such as through the burning of fossil fuels have been 40 to 100 times greater than our planet's geologic carbon emissions.

"It's really revealing that the amount of carbon dioxide we're emitting in a short time period is very close to the magnitude of those pervious catastrophic carbon events," said Dr Celina Suarez from the University of Arkansas

"A lot of those ended in mass extinctions, so there are good reasons why there is discussion now that we might be in a sixth mass extinction."

While this might sound depressing, there is some hopeful news in the new study.

In trying to gauge the amount of carbon emitted from volcanoes, the DCO scientists have discovered that eruptions are very often preceded by surges in gas discharge.

"Putting very high-resolution sensors on crater rims allowed us to see very short time-scale changes in CO2 flux," explained Prof Edmonds.

"The flux increased dramatically in the days and weeks before eruptions. We think this holds great promise for forecasting in the future, when used in tandem with things like volcano seismicity, and how the ground is moving."

The DCO has published its findings in several papers in the journal Elements.

Image Copyright Deep Carbon Deep Carbon Report

Image Copyright Deep Carbon Deep CarbonReport

Jonathan.Amos-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk and follow me on Twitter: @BBCAmos

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Scientists estimate Earth's total carbon store

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There are 1.85 billion, billion tonnes of carbon on Earth, with more than 99% of it resident beneath our feet. Scientists from the Deep Carbon Observatory (DCO) project have spent 10 years assessing the "reservoirs and fluxes" of the chemical element.

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Ancient scrolls charred by Vesuvius could be read once again | Archaeology | The Guardian

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When Mount Vesuvius erupted in AD79 it destroyed the towns of Pompeii and Herculaneum, their inhabitants and their prized possessions - among them a fine library of scrolls that were carbonised by the searing heat of ash and gas.

But scientists say there may still be hope that the fragile documents can once more be read thanks to an innovative approach involving high-energy x-rays and artificial intelligence.

"Although you can see on every flake of papyrus that there is writing, to open it up would require that papyrus to be really limber and flexible - and it is not any more," said Prof Brent Seales, chair of computer science at the University of Kentucky, who is leading the research.

The two unopened scrolls that will be probed belong to the Institut de France in Paris and are part of an astonishing collection of about 1,800 scrolls that was first discovered in 1752 during excavations of Herculaneum. Together they make up the only known intact library from antiquity, with the majority of the collection now preserved in a museum in Naples.

The villa in which they were found is thought to have been owned by the father-in-law of Julius Caesar, the Roman dictator who was assassinated in 44BC.

Experts have attempted to unroll about half of the scrolls through various methods over the years, although some have been destroyed in the process and experts say unrolling and exposing the writing to the air results in the ink fading.

Seales and his team have previously used high-energy x-rays to "virtually unravel" a 1,700 year old Hebrew parchment found in the holy ark of a synagogue in En-Gedi in Israel, revealing it to contain text from the biblical book of Leviticus.

However, while the En-Gedi scroll contained a metal-based ink which shows up in x-ray data, the inks used on the Herculaneum scrolls are thought to be carbon-based, made using charcoal or soot, meaning there is no obvious contrast between the writing and the papyrus in x-ray scans.

While ink in some Herculaneum fragments has been found to contain lead, Seales says it is only trace amounts and does not allow the inside of the scrolls to be read using x-ray data alone. Seales says it has also proved impossible to replicate findings that letters within Herculaneum scrolls can be deciphered by the naked eye from scans captured by a slightly different x-ray technique.

As a result the team have come up with a new approach that uses high-energy x-rays together with a type of artificial intelligence known as machine learning.

The method uses photographs of scroll fragments with writing visible to the naked eye. These are used to teach machine learning algorithms where ink is expected to be in x-ray scans of the same fragments, collected using a number of techniques.

The idea is that the system will pick out and learn subtle differences between inked and blank areas in the x-ray scans, such as differences in the structure of papyrus fibres. Once trained on the fragments, it is hoped the system can be used with data from the intact scrolls to reveal the text within.

Seales said the team have just finished collecting the x-ray data and are training their algorithms, adding that they will apply the system on the scrolls in the coming months.

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The team taking on the task of reading the scrolls. Left to right: Front row - Jens Dopke, Brent Seales, Francoise Berard, and Christy Chapman; Back Row - Robert Atwood and Thomas Connolley. Photograph: Diamond Light Source Ltd

"The first thing we are hoping to do is perfect the technology so that we can simply repeat it on all 900 scrolls that remain [unwrapped]," said Seales.

As for what the scrolls contain, the researchers say they are excited.

"For the most part the writings [in opened scrolls] are Greek philosophy around Epicureanism, which was a prevailing philosophy of the day," said Seales.

Another possibility is that the scrolls might contain Latin text. While classical libraries are believed to have had a Greek section and a Latin section, only a small proportion of scrolls from Herculaneum have so far been found to be in Latin, with the possibility there is a Latin section within the villa yet to be excavated.

Dr Dirk Obbink, a papyrologist and classicist at the University of Oxford who has been involved in training the team's algorithms, said the project was immensely exciting and agreed it is possible the text might turn out to be Latin. "A new historical work by Seneca the Elder was discovered among the unidentified Herculaneum papyri only last year, thus showing what uncontemplated rarities remain to be discovered there," he said,

But Obbink is hoping the scrolls might even contain lost works, such as poems by Sappho or the treatise Mark Antony wrote on his own drunkenness. "I would very much like to be able to read that one," he said.
Topics

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Ancient scrolls charred by Vesuvius could be read once again

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When Mount Vesuvius erupted in AD79 it destroyed the towns of Pompeii and Herculaneum, their inhabitants and their prized possessions - among them a fine library of scrolls that were carbonised by the searing heat of ash and gas.

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UK weather: Torrential rain brings floods across Britain - BBC News

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UK weather: Torrential rain brings floods across Britain - BBC News

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Roads and railways are closed and some places are evacuated as heavy rain sweeps across the country.

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315 billion tonne iceberg breaks off Antarctica

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315 billion tonne iceberg breaks off Antarctica

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Effects of climate change

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The Amery Ice Shelf in Antarctica has just produced its biggest iceberg in more than 50 years.

The calved block covers 1,636 sq km in area - a little smaller than Scotland's Isle of Skye - and is called D28.

The scale of the berg means it will have to be monitored and tracked because it could in future pose a hazard to shipping.

Not since the early 1960s has Amery calved a bigger iceberg. That was a whopping 9,000 sq km in area.

Amery is the third largest ice shelf in Antarctica, and is a key drainage channel for the east of the continent.

The shelf is essentially the floating extension of a number of glaciers that flow off the land into the sea. Losing bergs to the ocean is how these ice streams maintain equilibrium, balancing the input of snow upstream.

So, scientists knew this calving event was coming. What's interesting is that much attention in the area had actually been focussed just to the east of the section that's now broken away.

This is a segment of Amery that has affectionately become known as "Loose Tooth" because of its resemblance in satellite images to the dentition of a small child. Both ice areas had shared the same rift system.

Nasa space laser tracks water depths from orbit

'No role' for climate in Halley iceberg

Antarctic instability 'is spreading'

But although wobbly, Loose tooth is still attached. It's D28 that's been extracted.

"It is the molar compared to a baby tooth," Prof Helen Fricker from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography told BBC News.

Prof Fricker had predicted back in 2002 that Loose Tooth would come off sometime between 2010 and 2015.

"I am excited to see this calving event after all these years. We knew it would happen eventually, but just to keep us all on our toes, it is not exactly where we expected it to be," she said.

The Scripps researcher stressed that there was no link between this event and climate change. Satellite data since the 1990s has shown that Amery is roughly in balance with its surroundings, despite experiencing strong surface melt in summer.

"While there is much to be concerned about in Antarctica, there is no cause for alarm yet for this particular ice shelf," Prof Fricker added.

The Australian Antarctic Division will however be watching Amery closely to see if it reacts at all. The division's scientists have instrumentation in the region.

It's possible the loss of such a big berg will change the stress geometry across the front of the ice shelf. This could influence the behaviour of cracks, and even the stability of Loose Tooth.

D28 is calculated to be about 210m thick and contains some 315 billion tonnes of ice.

The name comes from a classification system run by the US National Ice Center, which divides the Antarctic into quadrants.

The D quadrant covers the longitudes 90 degrees East to zero degrees, the Prime Meridian. This is roughly Amery to the Eastern Weddell Sea.

D28 is dwarfed by the mighty A68 berg, which broke away from the Larsen C Ice Shelf in 2017. It currently covers an area more than three times as big.

Nearshore currents and winds will carry D28 westwards. It's likely to take several years for it to break apart and melt completely.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter.

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315 billion-tonne iceberg breaks off Antarctica

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The Amery Ice Shelf in Antarctica has just produced its biggest iceberg in more than 50 years. The calved block covers 1,636 sq km in area - a little smaller than Scotland's Isle of Skye - and is called D28.

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Strongest hurricane to reach so far east in the Atlantic Ocean.

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Hurricane Lorenzo has set a record for being the strongest ever to make it so far east in the Atlantic Ocean.

The category four storm had winds up to 145mph (233kmh) as it passed over the ocean this week.

It was later downgraded to a category three - with 115mph winds - and it is heading towards the Azores islands. Its remnants could hit parts of the UK in the coming days.

Lorenzo has been continuing on its northern path after being declared by experts as "the strongest hurricane east of 45 degrees west longitude in the Atlantic on record".

It was predicted to turn northeast on Sunday.

Although major hurricanes like Lorenzo are not rare in the Atlantic Basin, where it is located relative to its force is very unusual.

The storm's quick growth was also rare for Atlantic hurricanes, which usually gain intensity further west.

Lorenzo was officially declared a major hurricane on Thursday with maximum sustained winds of 125mph. At the time, it was located 39.3 degrees west longitude.

Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach later tweeted: "Lorenzo now has max winds of 145mph - the strongest #hurricane east of 45°W in the Atlantic on record."

On Saturday, America's National Hurricane Centre said Lorenzo was "still a major hurricane".

It said: "Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles, and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days.

"Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

"As of 11am AST/EDT (4pm UK time on Saturday) the centre of Hurricane Lorenzo was located over the central Atlantic Ocean about 1,500 miles (2,415km) southwest of the Azores.

"Maximum sustained winds are near 115mph (185kph) with higher gusts - a category three hurricane."

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Lorenzo strongest hurricane to reach so far east in Atlantic Ocean

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Hurricane Lorenzo has set a record for being the strongest ever to make it so far east in the Atlantic Ocean. The category four storm had winds up to 145mph (233kmh) as it passed over the ocean this week. It was later downgraded to a category three - with 115mph winds - and it is heading towards the Azores islands.

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Stromboli: One dead as volcano erupts on Italian island - BBC News

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A volcano has erupted on the Italian island of Stromboli, killing one person and sending frightened tourists fleeing.

The victim is a male hiker who was hit by a falling stone, while other people were injured.

The navy has been deployed for a possible mass evacuation, with 70 people already evacuated.

The volcano is one of the most active on the planet and has been under a regular state of eruption since 1932.

"Unfortunately one man is dead, there are a few injured, but none seriously," emergency worker Calogero Foti told Italy's Rai television.

The victim was a 35-year-old man from Sicily who was hiking when the volcano erupted twice. His Brazilian friend was discovered dehydrated and in a state of shock, the AGI news agency reported.

Firefighters are battling flames on the island.

"We saw the explosion from the hotel. There was a loud roar," said Michela Favorito, who works in a hotel on the island.

"We plugged our ears and after this a cloud of ash swept over us. The whole sky is full of ash, a fairly large cloud," she said.

Fiona Carter, a British tourist on the island of Panarea, some 17 miles from Stromboli, heard the eruption.

"We turned around to see a mushroom cloud coming from Stromboli. Everyone was in shock. Then red hot lava started running down the mountain towards the little village of Ginostra," she said.

Holidaymakers were reported to have run into the sea after seeing ash rising from the volcano. The island is a popular location for holiday homes of the rich and famous.

Stromboli is known as the "Lighthouse of the Mediterranean" and has a population of around 500. The last major eruption was in 2002, when a blast destroyed local buildings and piers, injuring six.

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One dead as volcano erupts on Italian island

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A volcano has erupted on the Italian island of Stromboli, killing one person and sending frightened tourists fleeing. The victim is a male hiker who was hit by a falling stone, while other people were injured. The navy has been deployed for a possible mass evacuation, with 70 people already evacuated.

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Which areas of the UK are most at risk of a 5m sea level rise? 🌊

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Svalbard - On the frontline of climate change

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Svalbard - On the frontline of climate change

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Absolute must read !!! ❄️

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In retreat: The Norwegian community of Svalbard on the frontline of climate change

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In retreat: The Norwegian community of Svalbard on the frontline of climate change

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5.8 magnitude causes houses to collapse in Pakistan.

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5.8 magnitude causes houses to collapse in Pakistan.

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Sept. 2019

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A 5.8 magnitude earthquake has struck eastern Pakistan, killing at least 19 people and injuring more than 300, local officials say.

The quake's epicentre was close to the city of Mirpur, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Photos circulating on social media show a huge crack on a main road in the area, and partially destroyed houses.

The full extent of the damage is not yet known. Thousands of people died in a powerful quake in the area in 2005.

"The quake was 10km (six miles) deep... The worst hit was Mirpur," Pakistan's chief meteorologist, Muhammad Riaz, told the AFP news agency.

Children are among the dead, reports say.

Pakistan's military said "aviation and medical support" teams had been dispatched to the area.

After Tuesday's earthquake, tremors were felt as far away as the capitals of Pakistan and India, Islamabad and Delhi respectively.

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Houses collapse in deadly Pakistan earthquake

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A 5.8 magnitude earthquake has struck eastern Pakistan, killing at least 19 people and injuring more than 300, local officials say. The quake's epicentre was close to the city of Mirpur, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Photos circulating on social media show a huge crack on a main road in the area, and partially destroyed houses.

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Plans for 'world's largest' wind farm off Yorkshire coast - BBC News

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Plans have been announced to build three new giant wind farms off the Yorkshire coast.

The developers behind the Dogger Bank project claim it would be the world's biggest and produce enough electricity to power 4.5 million UK homes.

Work is expected to start in January and the first power could be produced in 2023.

Industry body RenewableUK said the investment could "support thousands of new jobs".

The project is located 80 miles (130km) off the East Yorkshire coast and consists of three sites, Creyke Beck A, Creyke Beck B and Teesside A.

The electricity will come ashore at sites in Teesside and Cottingham in East Yorkshire.

Energy firm SSE and its Norwegian partner Equinor said that about £9bn would be invested in the project.

Eldar Sætre, CEO of Equinor, said: "A full-scale development of Dogger Bank will constitute an industrial wind hub in the heart of the North Sea, playing a major role in the UK's ambitions for offshore wind and supporting the net zero ambition."

The project is one of a number of large wind farms planned off the Yorkshire coast.

In February, the first power was produced by the Hornsea One development. Two other adjacent wind farms are under development.

The three sites will have more than 630 turbines standing 623 feet (190m) high, each built by Siemens in Hull.

Hugh McNeal from RenewableUK claimed offshore wind would "supply at least a third of our power by 2030".
Follow BBC East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Send your story ideas to yorkslincs.news@bbc.co.uk .

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Plans have been announced to build three new giant wind farms off the Yorkshire coast. The developers behind the Dogger Bank project claim it would be the world's biggest and produce enough electricity to power 4.5 million UK homes. Work is expected to start in January and the first power could be produced in 2023.

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The climate crisis explained in 10 charts | Climate change | The Guardian

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The problem - rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

The level of CO 2 has been rising since the industrial revolution and is now at its highest for about 4 million years. The rate of the rise is even more striking - the fastest for 66m years - with scientists saying we are in "uncharted territory".

The causes - fossil fuel burning

Billions of tonnes of CO 2 are sent into the atmosphere every year from coal, oil and gas burning. There is no sign of these emissions starting to fall rapidly, as is needed.

The causes - forest destruction

The felling of forests for timber, cattle, soy and palm oil is a big contributor to carbon emissions. It is also a major cause of the annihilation of wildlife on Earth.

The consequences - global temperature rise

The planet's average temperature started to climb steadily two centuries ago, but has rocketed since the second world war as consumption and population has risen. Global heating means there is more energy in the atmosphere, making extreme weather events more frequent and more intense.

The consequences - ice melting in Greenland

Greenland has lost almost 4 trillion tonnes of ice since 2002. Mountain ranges from the Himalayas to the Andes to the Alps are also losing ice rapidly as glaciers shrink. A third of the Himalayan and Hindu Kush ice is already doomed.

The consequences - rising sea levels

Sea levels are inexorably rising as ice on land melts and hotter oceans expand. Sea levels are slow to respond to global heating, so even if the temperature rise is restricted to 2C, one in five people in the world will eventually see their cities submerged, from New York to London to Shanghai.

The consequences - shrinking Arctic sea ice

As heating melts the sea ice, the darker water revealed absorbs more of the sun's heat, causing more heating - one example of the vicious circles in the climate system. Scientists think the changes in the Arctic may be responsible for worsened heatwaves and floods in Eurasia and North America.

The upside (I) - wind and solar energy is soaring

Huge cost drops have seen renewable energy become the cheapest energy in many places and the rollout is projected to continue. Analysts also expect coal use to fall. But much government action is still required to reach the scale needed, and solve difficult problems such as aviation and farming.

The upside (II) - electric vehicles

The global fleet of electric cars and vans is still small compared with those running on fossil fuels. But sales are growing very fast. Electric cars are cheaper to run, suggesting they will become mainstream.

The upside (III) - battery costs

Renewable energy is intermittent, depending on when the sun shines or wind blows. So storage is vital and the cost of batteries is plummeting. But other technologies, such as generating hydrogen, will also be needed.

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The climate crisis explained in 10 charts

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From the rise and rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to possible solutions

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Norfolk slows down coastal erosion with sandscaping scheme | Coastlines | The Guardian

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An artificial dune of nearly 2m cubic metres of sand has been created on the Norfolk coast in an innovative approach to slowing coastal erosion.

In the £20m sandscaping scheme, enough sand to fill one and a half Wembley stadiums has been dredged from existing North Sea seabed extraction sites off Great Yarmouth and ferried to the rapidly eroding coastline beside the large gas terminal at Bacton.

Nearly four miles (6km) of coastline has been replenished with new sand, deposited up to seven metres deep in places in an irregular form so the wind can create dunes to buffer the soft sandy cliffs. Although the sand is expected to erode and move with storms and currents, the project's engineers say it will buy 15 to 20 more years for a coastline where seaside communities are predicted to have to move inland later this century because of rising seas caused by the climate crisis.

Villages to the south of Bacton have blamed increased erosion on the concrete sea defences around the gas terminal. These have prevented the natural movement of sediment from sandy cliffs drifting southwards to replenish neighbouring beaches.

The new mobile defences are calculated to work with the longshore drift which will carry the sand southwards where it will protect other coastal villages that are increasingly vulnerable to the climate crisis.

It is the first scheme of its kind outside the Netherlands where the Zandmotor project used 10 times as much sand to protect a half-mile stretch of coastline in south Holland.

The Dutch engineering company that designed the project has identified up to 20 coastal locations where sandscaping could be used, including Lincolnshire and the shingle coast at Aldeburgh in Suffolk. The company is currently discussing with Cornwall county council a potential sandscaping solution in Penzance where coastal erosion threatens the railway line.

Jaap Flikweert, the coastal management adviser for Royal HaskoningDHV, said the Norfolk project was "a little nephew of Zandmotor". "It's less radical and it looks like a big, slightly more curvy beach nourishment scheme ... it sticks out less from the shoreline but this is the best concept for the clients," he said.

Local people at Walcott in Norfolk - where the 2013 storms wrecked homes - welcomed the scheme but pointed to the loss of 1 metre of sand from the lower part of the beach since it was placed there in August. "A lot of it seems to have disappeared already," said Ken Crowe. "I hope it does what it set out to do. Time will tell."

"People say the beach used to be like this 60 years ago," said Cathy Kerby. "It's improved the beach for everyone ... we trust the experts know what they are doing and it will work."

According to Flikweert, some sand will be moved by the tides and currents and will disappear on to offshore sand banks in the winter but is expected to return in the summer. "That's the dynamic of the beach. Of course it looks worrying, especially for local people, but that's how it works."

The Zandmotor scheme in south Holland has surpassed initial expectations. The natural sea defence was expected to last for 20 years but a recent analysis suggested it could last twice as long.

The Bacton project caused controversy in the spring when netting placed on the cliffs prevented returning sand martins from nesting in their regular holes. However, according to Natural England which monitored the sand martins, the birds dug new nest holes nearby and enjoyed a successful nesting season with as many birds as before. The new sand is also expected to provide habitat for shore-nesting birds such as ringed plover.

Two-thirds of the £20m British scheme has been funded by the owners of Bacton gas terminal - including Shell - with £5m from the Environment Agency and additional funding from councils.

Emma Howard Boyd, chair of the Environment Agency, said: "The climate crisis requires innovation and collaboration between countries, organisations, sectors and communities. The Bacton to Walcott scheme is a model for other climate resilience projects, protecting key national infrastructure while also delivering added coastal protection to the local villages."

The Bacton gas terminal brings ashore 20% of the UK's gas needs and is designated critical national infrastructure. When the terminal was built in the 1960s it was 100 metres from the sea but this had dwindled to 20 metres before the 2013 storms. After these storms, in places the sea was just 10 metres from the terminal.
Topics

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Norfolk slows down coastal erosion with sandscaping scheme

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An artificial dune of nearly 2m cubic metres of sand has been created on the Norfolk coast in an innovative approach to slowing coastal erosion. In the £20m sandscaping scheme, enough sand to fill one and a half Wembley stadiums has been dredged from existing North Sea seabed extraction sites off Great Yarmouth and ferried to the rapidly eroding coastline beside the large gas terminal at Bacton.

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Climate change: Impacts 'accelerating' as leaders gather for UN talks - BBC News

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The signs and impacts of global heating are speeding up, the latest science on climate change, published ahead of key UN talks in New York, says.

The data, compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), says the five-year period from 2014 to 2019 is the warmest on record.

Sea-level rise has accelerated significantly over the same period, as CO2 emissions have hit new highs.

The WMO says carbon-cutting efforts have to be intensified immediately.

The climate statement is a pull-together of the latest science on the causes and growing impacts of unprecedented levels of warming seen in recent years.

Recognising that global temperatures have risen by 1.1 degrees C since 1850, the paper notes they have gone up by 0.2C between 2011 and 2015.

This is as a result of burgeoning emissions of carbon, with the amount of the gas going into the atmosphere between 2015 and 2019 growing by 20% compared with the previous five years.

Perhaps most worrying of all is the data on sea-level rise.

The average rate of rise since 1993 until now is 3.2mm per year. However, from May 2014 to 2019 the rise has increased to 5mm per year. The 10-year period from 2007-2016 saw an average of about 4mm per year.

"Sea-level rise has accelerated and we are concerned that an abrupt decline in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, which will exacerbate future rise," said WMO secretary general Petteri Taalas.

"As we have seen this year with tragic effect in the Bahamas and Mozambique, sea-level rise and intense tropical storms led to humanitarian and economic catastrophes."

The report also highlights the threats to the oceans, with more than 90% of the excess heat caused by climate change ending up in the waters. The WMO analysis says 2018 had the highest ocean heat content values on record.

The study underlines the fact that wherever you look on the planet right now, the story is the same: human-induced warming is impacting the scale and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and wildfires.

"Climate change due to us is accelerating and on a very dangerous course," said Prof Brian Hoskins, chair of the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, and professor of meteorology, University of Reading.

"We should listen to the loud cry coming from the schoolchildren. There is an emergency - one for action in both rapidly reducing our greenhouse gas emissions towards zero and adapting to the inevitable changes in climate."

'No fancy speeches'

The WMO report is meant to inform the special UN summit on climate change taking place in New York on Monday.

A range of political leaders will attend the one-day event, which is designed to be about action and not words, according to UN secretary general António Guterres.

"I told leaders not to come with fancy speeches, but with concrete commitments," he said ahead of the meeting.

"People want solutions, commitments and action. I expect there will be an announcement and unveiling of a number of meaningful plans on dramatically reducing emissions during the next decade, and on reaching carbon neutrality by 2050."

Greta Thunberg and other youth activists, fresh from marching on the streets of New York on Friday, will speak at the opening of the meeting.

About 60 heads of state are expected to follow, with countries expected to announce new actions to limit the causes of warming or to speak on initiatives developed by a coalition of nations.

While China, India, France, Germany and the UK will speak at the meeting, there is no place on the podium for Japan or Australia.

Mr Guterres has asked that as well as committing to net-zero emissions by 2050, countries should reduce subsidies for fossil fuels and stop building new coal-fired power stations. The question of coal has led to the barring of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Australia's Scott Morrison.

The US, Brazil and Saudi Arabia will also not be taking part.

The success of the special summit remains in the balance - what isn't in question is the urgency of action and the fact that delay means more difficult decisions down the line.

"It is highly important that we reduce greenhouse gas emissions, notably from energy production, industry and transport. This is critical if we are to mitigate climate change and meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement," said Petteri Taalas from the WMO.

"To stop a global temperature increase of more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, the level of ambition needs to be tripled. And to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees, it needs to be multiplied by five," he said.

Follow Matt on Twitter @mattmcgrathbbc .

You may also be interested in:

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Climate change: Impacts 'accelerating' as leaders gather for UN talks

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The signs and impacts of global heating are speeding up, the latest science on climate change, published ahead of key UN talks in New York, says. The data, compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), says the five-year period from 2014 to 2019 is the warmest on record.

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Climate change: Water shortages in England 'within 25 years' - BBC News

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Within 25 years England will not have enough water to meet demand, the head of the Environment Agency is warning.

The impact of climate change, combined with population growth, means the country is facing an "existential threat", Sir James Bevan told the Waterwise Conference in London.

He wants to see wasting water become "as socially unacceptable as blowing smoke in the face of a baby".

"We all need to use less water and use it more efficiently," he said.

Sir James Bevan was appointed chief executive of the Environment Agency - the public body responsible for protecting the environment and wildlife in England - in 2015 after a career as a diplomat.

He told his audience that, in around 20 to 25 years, England would reach the "jaws of death - the point at which, unless we take action to change things, we will not have enough water to supply our needs".

Huge costs of climate impacts in 2018

Climate change is 'shrinking winter'

How much water goes from Wales to England?

By Roger Harrabin, BBC Environment Analyst

The tone of Sir James' warnings is more strident than we're used to. Phrases like "existential threat" and "jaws of death" are, he admits, designed to jolt people into facing uncomfortable truths.

The problem is the unfortunate combination of growing population and potentially shrinking supply by 2040.

That implies a suite of tough decisions like persuading consumers and firms to use less water.

The most pressing decisions, though, are over hardware. Infrastructure developments like giant pipes transferring water to the South East will be years in the planning. There's a risk to wildlife, too.

But most controversial are plans for reservoirs. Locals have been fighting one in South Oxfordshire since the 1990s. Protestors say they acknowledge the water shortage problem but believe water firms are exaggerating the level of population growth.

What's more, they say, reservoirs in a water shortage area like the Thames Valley is not a wise solution. And they will fight on.

'Use 40 litres less a day'

Alongside action being taken by the government, water companies and regulators, Sir James wants the public to use less water, and use it more efficiently.

Currently, people in England use an average of 140 litres of water a day. Sir James is calling on people to cut their usage to 100 litres - the target set by Waterwise, which campaigns for water efficiency.

"In the last few decades we've radically changed behaviour on smoking (everybody did it) and seatbelts (nobody wore them)," he is expected to say.

"In the last two years we've changed behaviour on plastic. We need water wastage to be as socially unacceptable as blowing smoke in the face of a baby or throwing your plastic bags into the sea."

Sir James' list of 'things we can all do'

Get a low-flush toilet

Take short showers, not deep baths

Use the most efficient shower-head

Get a water-efficient washing machine

Don't use your dishwasher until it's full

Turn the tap off when brushing your teeth

Don't water your lawn (it will survive)

"If by 2050 we reduced per capita consumption to 100 litres a day, leakage by 50%, and did nothing else, it would provide enough water for an additional 20 million people without taking any more from the environment," Sir James said.

Sir James in his speech declined to get embroiled in the political arguments over whether water companies should remain privatised or be taken back into public ownership.

However, he did say that the present companies needed to up their game - on fixing leaks, bearing down on pollution and making the necessary investments that would future-proof the water delivery system.

Reality Check: What have water companies done on leaks?

Need for new reservoirs

And as well as reducing demand for water, he also called for a big push on maximising its supply.

This, he said, would include:

Water transfers between regions, from areas of water surplus to areas of deficit

Desalination plants that convert brackish water from into clean drinking water

New reservoirs to be built to hold water for use in times of severe water stress

"We have not built a new reservoir in the UK for decades, largely because clearing all the planning and legal hurdles necessary is so difficult and local opposition so fierce," he explained.

But, Sir James argued, the economic case for greater resilience was clear, citing a 2016 Environment Agency report that found "that while a severe drought would cost each household more than £100, the cost per household of the investment that would greatly reduce the risk was only £4 a year."

The Environment Agency has previously warned of water shortages by 2050 and the government has already suggested that people's water use should be reduced, in its 25-year plan published last year.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have separate public bodies responsible for environment protection, because the environment is a devolved matter.

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England water shortage 'within 25 years'

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Within 25 years England will not have enough water to meet demand, the head of the Environment Agency is warning. The impact of climate change, combined with population growth, means the country is facing an "existential threat", Sir James Bevan told the Waterwise Conference in London.

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Can you afford the mortgage repayments on a home in London? 

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Can you afford the mortgage repayments on a home in London? 

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How much you need to earn per year to afford mortgage repayments living in London. Great topographical map using the underground map to show this information. This type of source can be used in Paper 2 and Paper 3.

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London population: Why so many people leave the UK's capital - BBC News

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It's no secret that London has a very successful economy, not just compared with the rest of the UK but with other international cities too.

Over the past decade its economy has expanded by a fifth. Ever more shops, restaurants and bars have opened to serve its residents.

As a result the population of London and the urban area surrounding it has grown significantly, increasing by 1.1 million between 2008 and 2017 to 10 million people.

Yet despite this success story, not everything is going its way.

Many more people pack their bags and leave the capital for elsewhere in England and Wales than make the journey the other way.

Over the past decade, about 550,000 more Britons left London than moved to it.

This trend is not unique to London; it is seen in many big US cities, including New York, Miami, Chicago and Los Angeles.

So why has the capital's population continued to grow despite so many people leaving? It can be explained by two factors.

The first was its birth rate: 790,000 more people were born in London than died between 2009 and 2017.

The second factor was international immigration. There was an increase of 860,000 between 2009 and 2017, with more than half coming from the EU. By 2017, 3.6 million people living in the city were born overseas.

Of the Britons moving to the capital, a look at their ages reveals a great deal.

A large number of people move to London in their 20s, drawn from all corners of the country.

This is because of the range and number of job opportunities that the capital offers.

But among almost every other age group, the capital sees more people leaving than arriving.

This is most pronounced for very young children, people aged 18-20 and people in their 30s.

A look at where people move to after leaving the capital offers an insight into why this happens.

The 18-20 age group spreads out across the country, especially going to cities such as Nottingham, Coventry and Brighton. The most common reason is to start university.

It is safe to assume the other age groups - the children up to four years old and the 30-somethings - are leaving together. Paddington train station isn't full of unaccompanied toddlers with their suitcases.

These are the young families moving out of the capital, very often in search of homes for less than London's notoriously high prices.

Yet this does not mean that they are giving up on London altogether and returning "home" to the other parts of the country they first moved from.

Unlike people moving for university, many stay within commuting distance.

Two-thirds of these age groups remain in what might be called "the Greater South East" - an area stretching from Southampton up to Milton Keynes and across to Norfolk.

So while they no longer live in the city, they still have the option to work there.

And the 800,000 people who commute into London each day - more than the entire population of cities such as Leeds and Bristol - suggest that many of them do.

Among those Londoners who remain past their 30s more continue to leave than arrive, albeit in smaller numbers.

These flows of people - the arrival of large numbers of young people and the departure of many of those who are older - also explains why London is such a young city.

With an average age of 37, its population is the sixth youngest of any large town or city in the UK. Oxford, Cambridge and Coventry all have populations with an average age under 36, while in Swansea and Sunderland, the oldest, it is 41.

London's experience differs to other big British cities.

Places like Liverpool, Sheffield, Newcastle and Nottingham have also seen their population and economies grow. But the waves of people arriving and leaving are very different.

They see two waves of people leaving - one for those aged 21-30 (many of whom head to London) and a second for people aged over 30.

The inflow and first wave of out-migration is related to universities.

These cities have a number of universities in them and attract many thousands of students from across the country, including London.
More stories like this
But many of these students leave the cities behind as easily as they moved to them once they graduate.

Taking Liverpool as an example, it sees an inflow of people aged 18-20 from almost every other city in England and Wales. But the opposite trend is seen for 21 to 30-year-olds, with the city losing more of this age group to almost every other city than it gains.

However, it is crucial to note that some of these students do stay on.

In the case of Liverpool, one in five of the students who move to the city for university make it their home after graduation. And so the number of highly qualified young people living in the city increases overall.

But like London, these big cities also experience a second wave of people leaving when they hit their 30s.

And like the capital, these people don't move very far, once again looking for somewhere for their families to live.

For example, people leaving Birmingham tend to head for places like Shropshire or Staffordshire. And people leaving Newcastle mainly move to neighbouring Northumberland and County Durham.

These patterns show that different places offer different things to people as they get older.

The vibrancy and job opportunities offered by our biggest cities appeal to students and young professionals. This shapes these cities in terms of the shops, bars and other facilities they offer.

But among older residents, the desire for things like more space and a less urban environment grows, and many move out.

It reminds us that cities are not islands, with residents flowing in and out of them depending on their stage of life.

With it comes the challenge of making sure there is the right type of housing where people want to live and the transport to get them about.
About this piece
This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from experts working for an outside organisation.

Andrew Carter is chief executive and Paul Swinney is director at the Centre for Cities, which describes itself as working to understand how and why economic growth and change takes place in the UK's cities.

This piece uses data from the ONS on England and Wales's 58 largest urban areas. Comparable data is not available for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Edited by Duncan Walker

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It's no secret that London has a very successful economy, not just compared with the rest of the UK but with other international cities too. Over the past decade its economy has expanded by a fifth. Ever more shops, restaurants and bars have opened to serve its residents.

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Climate Change - Change in Greenland’s Glacier

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Climate Change - Change in Greenland’s Glacier

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How one glacier in Greenland has changed in 15 years...

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How one glacier in Greenland has changed in 15 years...

#glacier #geography #geographyteacher

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How one glacier in Greenland has changed in 15 years...

#glacier #geography #geographyteacher https://t.co/WxZgWDgV9y

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How one glacier in Greenland has changed in 15 years...

#glacier #geography #geographyteacher https://t.co/WxZgWDgV9y

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How one glacier in Greenland has changed in 15 years...

#glacier #geography #geographyteacher https://t.co/WxZgWDgV9y

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How one glacier in Greenland has changed in 15 years...

#glacier #geography #geographyteacher

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Should the US accept climate refugees as a result of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas?

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Hundreds of Bahamian citizens desperate to escape the devastation of Hurricane Dorian were ordered off a ferry to Florida, sparking a dispute between US immigration officials and the operator of the vessel.
Search for survivors of Hurricane Dorian continues in Bahamas
Crew members aboard the Balearia in Freeport, Grand Bahama, told evacuees without valid US visas they would have to disembark because US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) warned "in a last-minute call" they would not be admitted to the US on arrival in Fort Lauderdale.

Under CBP rules, passengers lacking visas are legally admissible on humanitarian grounds as long as they also carry a police report confirming they have no criminal record. But those with such documentation were asked to get off the Balearia after the passenger manifest was submitted to the US federal agency on Sunday night, according to some of the crew, because they said the US would not accept them.

CBP officials fired back on Monday, accusing Balearia Caribbean of making "a business decision" to avoid a lengthy spell at the dockside while passengers without visas had travel documents inspected.

"If those folks did stay on the boat and arrived we would have processed them, vetted them and worked within our laws and protocols and done what we had to do to facilitate them," Stephen Silvestri, acting director for CBP at Port Everglades, told a reporter from Miami news station WSVN who was onboard the ferry.

"I think it was a business decision by Balearia to remove them. They were not ordered off the boat by any government entity."

The ship's owners, Balearia Caribbean, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Most of the passengers had spent hours at the crowded dock in Freeport on Sunday, trying to secure a seat on board the 1,000-capacity vessel.

Renard Oliver, an evacuee from Grand Bahama trying to reach Florida with his two young daughters, told WSVN: "They're saying they just got a call from CBP and CBP told them that everyone that doesn't have a US visa and was travelling on a police record has to come off.

"At the last minute like this it's kind of disappointing. It's hurting watching my daughters cry."

On Saturday, 1,500 evacuees from Grand Bahama reached Palm Beach, Florida, aboard the Grand Celebration, a ship operated by Paradise Cruise Line. The difference, according to CBP, was that Paradise had coordinated the voyage with Bahamian government and US officials in Nassau, the capital of the Bahamas.

"CBP relies on the transportation companies ... to be engaged in ensuring the safety and wellbeing of any individuals that have been devastated by this tragedy and that requires transparent communication and planning for adequate resources to receive any arrival," a CBP statement issued on Monday said.

Since the category 5 hurricane tore into north-western islands of the Bahamas eight days ago, with winds gusting above 200mph and a storm surge of more than 20ft, thousands have been evacuated to Nassau or the US.

Military transport planes flying from Abaco and Grand Bahama enhanced efforts begun by dozens of operators of private boats and aircraft in the immediate aftermath of the storm.

Marco Rubio, US senator for Florida, backed the CBP position in a Monday lunchtime tweet, claiming that it appeared Balearia "didn't coordinate in advance. And decided to leave instead of waiting a few hours to complete process." Rubio toured the worst-hit islands last week with Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis, the former and current governors of Florida, the trio urging the Trump administration to waive or suspend certain visa requirements for Bahamian nationals to come to the US.

In a series of tweets, Mark Morgan, acting commissioner of CBP, said no visa documentation requirements had changed. Immigration officers at points of entry, he said, had discretion "to issue humanitarian or medical parole on a case-by-case basis".
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Hundreds of Bahamian evacuees ordered off boat due to lack of US visas

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Hundreds of Bahamian citizens desperate to escape the devastation of Hurricane Dorian were ordered off a ferry to Florida, sparking a dispute between US immigration officials and the operator of the vessel.

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Typhoon Lingling passes over North Korea.

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Typhoon Lingling passes over North Korea.

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Another tropical storm of the season! Compare with Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas

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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has chaired an emergency meeting of government officials as a powerful typhoon began to batter the country.

Typhoon Lingling has caused widespread disruption across South Korea, with at least three people killed and thousands of homes left without power.

There are fears that the storm could damage crops in the North, which suffers severe food shortages.

State media said Mr Kim scolded officials for their lack of action.

He described them as "helpless against the typhoon, unaware of its seriousness and seized with easygoing sentiment", Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.

The government was giving "primary attention" to the protection of crops as well as dams and reservoirs, KCNA said.

Residents in areas prone to flooding were being evacuated and "watchmen" were monitoring key infrastructure such as bridges and buildings, the agency added.

Lingling made landfall in South Korea earlier on Saturday and was heading north with winds gusting up to 140 km/h (86 mph), the South's Yonhap news agency reported.

Bad harvest leads to N Korea rations cut

Earlier this year, the UN warned that up to 10 million North Koreans were "in urgent need of food assistance".

Pyongyang acknowledged it was suffering its worst drought in 37 years and called on citizens to "battle" against crop damage caused by it.

In 2017, North Korea was hit by a serious drought which ravaged its production of staple crops such as rice, maize, potatoes and soybean.

It is not known exactly what impact this had, but reports at the time said many faced malnutrition and death.

In the 1990s, a devastating famine is believed to have killed hundreds of thousands of North Koreans.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has chaired an emergency meeting of government officials as a powerful typhoon began to batter the country. Typhoon Lingling has caused widespread disruption across South Korea, with at least three people killed and thousands of homes left without power.

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Show caption
The drilling rig at Cuadrilla's Preston New Road fracking site. Photograph: Dave Thompson/PA

A large tremor that caused houses to shake has been triggered by the UK's only active fracking site, amid rising alarm about the controversial practice.

The 2.9-magnitude quake, recorded near Cuadrilla's site near Blackpool on Monday morning, is believed to be the biggest fracking-related tremor seen in Britain.

Operations at the Preston New Road site had been suspended since Wednesday night after a series of gradually increasing "microseismic events".

Yet the 2.9-magnitude tremor, which startled residents at 8.30am on Monday, is by far the largest recorded at the site and is bigger than the 2.3-magnitude quake that brought fracking to a halt in 2011.
Fracking

Houses shake as 2.9-magnitude quake recorded near Cuadrilla's site near Blackpool on Monday

The latest quake, which has been verified by the British Geological Survey, easily breaches the government's 0.5ML (local magnitude) limit on seismic activity.

Cuadrilla said it was aware of the seismic event and no fracking had taken place over the weekend. The energy firm said it was investigating alongside regulators.

Residents in nearby Lytham St Annes, Blackpool and as far afield as Preston reported feeling the tremor, with widespread reports of houses shaking.

Stephen Cheatley, a photographer who lives a few miles from the fracking site, said he "heard a bang, a bit like a shotgun going off". "This was quickly followed by the house shaking for about five seconds. In my opinion, this was a pretty serious tremor," he said.

"It's definitely the biggest since a natural one I experienced many years ago. I've been on the fence until now, but after that tremor this morning I think fracking needs to stop completely."

A resident of Lytham St Annes said there was a "very loud rumbling" and the "whole house shook, picture fell off a shelf" and that it was "quite scary".

Another person posted on social media: "I heard a loud rumble then the house literally shook. Scary stuff".

Cuadrilla saidthe integrity of its shale gas well was unaffected by the seismic activity. It added: "We appreciate this this has caused concern for local people and by way of reassurance it is worth noting that this event lasted for around a second and the maximum ground motion recorded was 5mm per second. This is about a third of that permitted for construction projects."

Fracking involves pumping water and chemicals into rocks at high pressure to extract shale gas. Fracking in England resumed last year after two tremors - measuring 2.3- and 1.5-magnitude - prompted a seven-year moratorium on the process.

Cuadrilla has blamed the 0.5ML limit on seismic activity for stifling the UK's nascent shale industry. It has called for a government review of the rules, and extra time to drill after its fracking licence expires in November.

Ministers hinted last week they are considering a review of the system after lending support to Cuadrilla's campaign.

A spokeswoman for the anti-fracking Preston New Action Group said it was "very frightening when you hear a loud bang and things in the house rattle".
She added: "Given that this quake was felt across Blackpool, the Fylde coast and beyond, what is likely to have happened beneath the ground to the well at the source? We should not be being subjected to this level of stress and fear. Fracking must be stopped immediately."

A spokesman for Frack Free Lancashire said: "Enough is enough. People are cowering in their homes and just waiting and wondering when the next quake will be and how much damage it will cause.
"We call upon our local MPs to come off the fence and press for an immediate ban on fracking. We are sick of being treated as human guinea pigs."

The Conservative MP Mark Menzies, who represents the Fylde coast where the tremors were felt, said he would write to ministers to call for a halt to fracking in Lancashire.

He said the latest tremors showed that the fracking industry is unable to operate within safety regulations, and added: "It is now clear that hydraulic fracturing is not suitable for Fylde or the people of Fylde and I will be writing to ministers and the Oil and Gas Authority to call for full cessation of the shale gas industry operating on the Fylde coast."

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Latest fracking tremor believed to be UK's biggest yet

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A large tremor that caused houses to shake has been triggered by the UK's only active fracking site, amid rising alarm about the controversial practice. The 2.9-magnitude quake, recorded near Cuadrilla's site near Blackpool on Monday morning, is believed to be the biggest fracking-related tremor seen in Britain.

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Heat from London Underground tunnels will be used to keep homes in Islington warm under a new scheme, Transport for London (TfL) has said.

Warm air from a disused Northern Line station will support a heat network supplying up to 1,000 homes and businesses by the end of the year.

The scheme is a joint project between Islington Council, TfL and engineering firm Ramboll.

TfL said it could be a "significant low-carbon energy source".

A spokesman said: "We are also carrying out further research to identify opportunities for similar projects across the network."

A heat pump will capture "waste heat" from a ventilation shaft on City Road, which currently pumps out air at 18C to 28C (64F to 82F).

This will then be used to supply heat and hot water to properties.

The project is the second phase of Islington's new Bunhill Energy Centre which already keeps about 700 new homes warm.

Enough heat is wasted in London to meet 38% of the city's heating demand, according to the Greater London Authority.

With the expansion of district heating networks it is though this could rise to 63% of demand by 2050.

Lily Frencham, head of operations at the Association of Decentralised Energy, said: "Using surplus heat rather than wasting it is a great way to ensure that we cut carbon emissions whilst helping people stay warm at an affordable cost."

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Heat from London Underground tunnels will be used to keep homes in Islington warm under a new scheme, Transport for London (TfL) has said. Warm air from a disused Northern Line station will support a heat network supplying up to 1,000 homes and businesses by the end of the year.

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People must use less transport, eat less red meat and buy fewer clothes if the UK is to virtually halt greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the government's chief environment scientist has warned.

Prof Sir Ian Boyd said the public had little idea of the scale of the challenge from the so-called Net Zero emissions target.

However, he said technology would help.

The conundrum facing the UK - and elsewhere - was how we shift ourselves away from consuming, he added.

In an interview with BBC News, Sir Ian warned that persuasive political leadership was needed to carry the public through the challenge.

Asked whether Boris Johnson would deliver that leadership, he declined to comment.

Mr Johnson has already been accused by environmentalists of talking up electric cars whilst reputedly planning a cut in driving taxes that would increase emissions and undermine the electric car market.

UK commits to 'net zero' emissions by 2050

Government 'like Dad's Army' on climate change

Climate change: Where we are in seven charts

Sir Ian said polluting activities should incur more tax. He believes the Treasury should reform taxation policy to reward people with low-carbon lifestyles and nudge heavy consumers into more frugal patterns of behaviour.

It was vital, he said, for the changes to be fair to all parts of society.

He also believes Net Zero won't happen unless the government creates a Net Zero ministry to vet the policies of all government departments in the way the Brexit ministry vets Brexit-related decisions.

Emissions won't be reduced to Net Zero while ministers are fixed on economic growth measured by GDP, instead of other measures such as environmental security and a relatively stable climate, he argued.

Asked why the UK should take the lead when China's emissions are so high, he answered that the Chinese government was very worried about the climate and was taking it very seriously.

Sir Ian, a polar expert with a chair in biology at St Andrews University, suggested that the UK was in a good position to show the world how to achieve Net Zero. But he agreed that similar radical action was ultimately needed by all nations.

He said that on broader issues the government had produced (or was in the process of producing) impressive strategies on the environment, waste, air pollution, marine and food.

Some ministers were enthusiastic to translate these into firm strategies, but they needed support from the public, he said. He confessed that he was not optimistic about the future of the planet because so many systems of government needed to change in a short time.

Sir Ian, who leaves Defra on Thursday after seven years in post, said: "The way we live our lives is generally not good for the environment.

"We like to consume things, but the more we consume the more we absorb the resources of the planet.

"That means we have to grow those resources or we have to mine them - and in doing that we generate waste. And consumption is going up all the time.

"(There's) a conundrum - how do we shift ourselves from consuming? We need to do more about learning to live sustainably. We talk about sustainability but we don't really know what it means.

"We need to make major technological advances in the way we use and reuse materials but we (also) need to reduce demand overall - and that means we need to change our behaviours and change our lifestyles.

"We certainly won't be able to travel so much as we have in the past, so we have to get used to using modern communications methods.

"Moving material round the planet will be more difficult so we'll have to do more with 3D printing; that sort of thing.

"We've got to reduce demand to a much greater extent than we have in the past, and if we don't reduce demand we're not going to reduce emissions.

"Emissions are a symptom of consumption and unless we reduce consumption we'll not reduce emissions.

"It will very rarely come down to a direct message like 'sorry, you can't buy that but you can buy this'. But there will be stronger messages within the (tax) system that make one thing more attractive than the other."

He said UK government strategies were in place on air, environment, resources, waste, marine, and food. "[Ministers] need to be persuasive."

Asked if he was optimistic about the future of the planet, he said: "We have the intelligence to do it; we have the potential to develop the technologies to do it... I'm doubtful that we have the governance structures to make it happen at the speed it needs to happen at."

Richard Black, from the think tank Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said Sir Ian's words were "somewhat surprising".

He added: "They appear to contradict the mass of evidence assembled on getting to Net Zero, including the major report from the government's statutory adviser the Committee on Climate Change."

I understand that the Confederation of British Industry, the CBI, accept there will have to be behavioural change to meet Net Zero.

A source in the organisation said they were frustrated that government climate policies were currently too weak.

Given the very broad nature of Sir Ian's comments, we approached Downing Street for a comment.

They declined and passed us back to Sir Ian's department, Defra. But their statement didn't address any of his key questions about governance, leadership and consumption.

It said: "The impact of climate change is clear and demands urgent action from countries around the world. The UK has already shown global leadership by becoming the first major economy to legislate for net zero emissions by 2050 - but we know there is more to do.

"That's why we're reforming farming policy to reward environmental actions, reviewing our food system to ensure it is more sustainable, taking steps to accelerate tree-planting and peatland restoration, and introducing a flagship Environment Bill to address the biggest environmental priorities of our age."

Follow Roger on Twitter @rharrabin

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Big lifestyle changes 'needed to cut emissions'

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People must use less transport, eat less red meat and buy fewer clothes if the UK is to virtually halt greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the government's chief environment scientist has warned. Prof Sir Ian Boyd said the public had little idea of the scale of the challenge from the so-called Net Zero emissions target.

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Demand for water could outstrip supply by 2035 in parts of northern England, according to a report.

Recent focus on near-future water shortages has been on dry south-east England, where London's consumption of water already outstrips supply in dry years, and the water companies that serve the capital are located in areas classified as seriously water stressed.

But the report for the thinktank IPPR North warns that, despite its abundance of water, the north could also become water stressed, with significant reductions in rainfall and water flow alongside population increase, economic growth and shortcomings in water companies' efforts to reduce leakage. The report says northern powerhouse projects could be at risk unless politicians plan ahead for the climate crisis.

In Yorkshire and the Humber, demand could outstrip supply by 2035 unless households and businesses reduce their water use, the report warns.

Although leakages are down by 38% from their mid-1990s peak, leakage rates have flatlined over the last decade. Household water use is slowly reducing, but the current average of 141 litres per person per day is still significantly higher than Germany's 121 litres per day, according to the report.

The north accounts for 41% of all water abstracted across England, but it relies far more on surface water than elsewhere in the country. With global heating, the likelihood of drought is projected to increase while average summer river flows may decrease, reducing water availability, even as the risk of flooding is likely to increase, particularly in winter.

The report says: "Although much of the north - unlike parts of the south of England - is not considered water stressed, the region's water security cannot be taken for granted. There are very limited opportunities to substantially increase the supply of water, for example by building new reservoirs, because of a lack of water availability, abstraction limitations, and the likely impact upon the natural environment.

"Instead, to ensure the region remains water resilient, we will have to make better use of our existing water supply by managing demand, reducing leakage and encouraging greater water efficiency."

While the north-east is expected to have a water surplus for several decades, water could also become a valuable asset to the north-west, with water management schemes potentially enabling it to supply other regions of England.

Jack Hunter, the author of the report and a research fellow at IPPR North, said: "This is a shared problem that requires shared solutions. Water companies need to deliver on their plans to dramatically reduce leakages, and households, businesses and political leaders all need to treat water much more responsibly in future."

The report also recommends that water companies should be legally required to be part of any strategic planning processes and consultees on individual planning applications.

The Environment Agency has warned that England could run short of water within 25 years unless drastic action is taken to stop leaks, improve efficiency of water usage in the home and transform public attitudes.

"We need water wastage to be as socially unacceptable as blowing smoke in the face of a baby or throwing your plastic bags into the sea," said its chief executive, Sir James Bevan, earlier this year.

According to the agency, it will be necessary to build controversial reservoirs, as well as energy-intensive desalination plants such as the one at Beckton on the Thames, which has supplied water to London since 2010.
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Parts of northern England could run dry by 2035, report reveals

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Demand for water could outstrip supply by 2035 in parts of northern England, according to a report. Recent focus on near-future water shortages has been on dry south-east England, where London's consumption of water already outstrips supply in dry years, and the water companies that serve the capital are located in areas classified as seriously water stressed.

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Near the mouth of the River Afan in Port Talbot, south Wales, a pair of seagulls were to be seen last week pecking in a leisurely way at a dead salmon lying on a gravel bank. It was an unusual sight. Salmon are rarely found in the Afan these days.

The scene may have been unexpected, but it nevertheless illustrates a growing problem, say researchers - one that already affects rivers across Europe and could pose even greater threats to habitats and wildlife in future. Increasing numbers of dams, weirs, sluices and other barriers built in rivers over the past 200 years are, they say, fragmenting waterways, isolating habitats and weakening wildlife populations.

The salmon on the Afan provides a good example, according to Peter Jones, a postdoctoral researcher at Swansea University. "It was lying on gravel in front of a weir. It would have been trying to get upriver, and although there are fish steps at the side of the weir it would still have had its progress slowed, and been left vulnerable to predators such as otters. The gulls are probably just having an opportunistic snack."

Jones is a member of a Swansea-led project called Amber (Adaptive Management of Barriers in European Rivers), which aims to find ways to halt the fragmentation of European rivers and the dangerous isolation of their habitats. "Flowing rivers are healthy rivers - and by flowing we don't mean just water, we mean sediment, energy, nutrients and organisms," said the project leader, Professor Carlos Garcia de Leaniz.

The trouble is that very few rivers today have flowing, healthy waters. Apart from abstraction by water companies and farmers, which lowers river levels, more and more barriers are being revealed by the Amber project, which is funded by the EU.

"In Europe we have detected 460,000 barriers, and by the end of the year we estimate that we'll have 600,000," said de Leaniz, director of Swansea's Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Research. These dams and weirs pepper Europe's rivers and prevent migratory fish from swimming upstream to reach their spawning grounds in river headwaters. They also stop vital nutrients flowing downstream to the sea, to the detriment of coastal marine ecosystems.

Amber is intended to provide a European overview of the problem. In addition, a second, very detailed survey - called Reconnecting Our River - has been established to study the nearby River Afan. The lessons learned here could be applied to other UK rivers.

"Technically the Afan is considered a free-flowing river because there are no big dams on it," said Josh Jones, another researcher with the Swansea team. "In fact, our work shows there are about 600 barriers inside its catchment area, including weirs, culverts, pipes, channels and sluices.

Artificial barriers map

"In many cases, no one can remember why these were built. But each one contributes in some way to the fragmenting of the river environment."

And it is a national problem, added Jones. "Only about 1% of rivers in the UK are free-flowing. The rest have all sorts of manmade barriers in them, and these limit the movement of wildlife and nutrients. It is becoming a worrying issue. Some fish like fast-flowing water and some like slow-moving water. By constantly adding structures you interfere with their habitats and weaken them."

It is also thought that the dams, weirs and culverts built on the Afan over the centuries may be playing a part in slowing its restoration as a salmon and trout river.

In the 19th century coalmine waste and other industrial pollutants killed most fish in the Afan; it was not until the middle of the 20th century that its waters were cleaned and restored.

However, salmon and trout have been slow to return and the researchers point to the hundreds of barriers that have been placed across the Afan and may well be delaying the restoration of fish stocks in the river.

Scientists also warn that, as the climate crisis increases its grip on the planet, river fragmentation will become an even greater problem. Pools of still water created by dams and barriers will become vulnerable to rising temperatures, for example. "That risks triggering major changes in wildlife," added Richard O'Rorke, another Swansea researcher.

The crucial point is that river barriers will need to be removed - which is likely to be costly. A major aim of Amber, and also of the Reconnecting Our River project, is to highlight ways of alleviating problems of river flow without spending vast sums.

"It may be that, instead of knocking down a large dam to improve water quality in a river, we can interfere with smaller structures and make less expensive changes that will still bring significant improvements," said O'Rorke. "That is a specific goal of this research."

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The Green Park weir on the Afan. Photograph: Roger Donovan/Alamy

Troubled waters

All major rivers in Europe are now disconnected from the sea, and this has had a catastrophic impact on many species, according to campaigning organisation Amber.

* Salmon and eel have become extinct or are threatened with extinction in many UK rivers, and the presence of dams and weirs is partly to blame.

* In the Netherlands and Germany, barriers along the River Rhine prevent the migration of sturgeon and shad.

* In Spain and Portugal, salmon have disappeared from all but a handful of rivers.
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'To save our fish, we must first find ways to unblock UK's rivers,' say scientists

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Near the mouth of the River Afan in Port Talbot, south Wales, a pair of seagulls were to be seen last week pecking in a leisurely way at a dead salmon lying on a gravel bank. It was an unusual sight. Salmon are rarely found in the Afan these days.

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Economic change and deindustrialistion in the UK 

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Economic change and deindustrialistion in the UK 

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Further deindustrialisation due to Brexit?

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UK manufacturers have recorded the sharpest drop in factory output for seven years as mounting concerns over a no-deal Brexit and the slowing global economy hit orders across the country.

The monthly snapshot from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, which is closely watched by the Treasury for early warning signals from the UK economy, showed that activity fell in August to the lowest levels since July 2012.

The report found that EU-based customers were shunning British manufacturers and rerouting supply chains away from the UK as the likelihood of border disruption after 31 October increased.
End to Brexit chaos cannot come too soon for factories | Larry Elliott
Orders from the US and Asia have fallen as the world economy slows, in a sign of the tough challenge facing the UK to strike new trade deals outside the economic bloc.

The IHS Markit/Cips manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 47.4 in August, down from 48.0 a month earlier. Anything above 50 separates growth from contraction.

Rob Dobson, a director at IHS Markit, said: "The current high degree of market uncertainty, both at home and abroad, and currency volatility will need to reduce significantly if UK manufacturing is to make any positive strides towards recovery in the coming months."

The warning signs from the manufacturing sector come as Britain descends further into political turmoil, as opponents of a no-deal Brexit attempt to stop Boris Johnson from taking the UK out of the EU without an agreement with Brussels in order to prevent lasting economic damage.

Manufacturing activity

Mirroring manufacturers' contingency plans from around the time of the initial 29 March Brexit deadline, companies have stepped up plans to avoid disruption after Halloween. IHS Markit/Cips said firms had restarted plans to stockpile goods. In another signal of firms' preparations, the Japanese carmaker Toyota has drawn up a plan to halt production at its factory in Burnaston, Derbyshire, in anticipation of disruption to deliveries of parts.

Fears over manufacturing jobs have started to rise as Brexit drags down the UK economy and global growth slows. Manufacturing employment fell at one of the fastest rates in six and a half years in August, with job cuts driven by cost-saving plans, slower economic growth and the continued impact of Brexit uncertainty.

Labour and the unions warned that further job losses could come as a consequence of a no-deal departure.

Neil Foster, a research and policy officer at the GMB trade union, said: "Crashing out of the EU without a deal would cause mayhem, delays and increase costs for our importers, exporters and their supply chains. The government should be working to rebuild confidence, instead ministers are risking more and more decent manufacturing jobs with their reckless approach."

According to the latest snapshot from IHS Markit/Cips, there were steep reductions in new orders across several industries against a backdrop of heightened political chaos and falling export demand across the world.

Global manufacturing has fallen into recession in recent months as the US-China trade war between the world's two biggest economies intensifies, which has dented economic growth in several major industrialised nations.

The UK has fallen to the bottom of the G7 growth league table, while growth in Germany has gone into reverse and Italy stalled over the second quarter.

Separate figures from IHS Markit on Monday showed that manufacturing activity in the eurozone contracted for a seventh month in a row in August as weak demand for goods continued.
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UK factory output dives to seven-year low as Brexit fears rise

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UK manufacturers have recorded the sharpest drop in factory output for seven years as mounting concerns over a no-deal Brexit and the slowing global economy hit orders across the country.

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The growth of the North-South divide in the UK

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The growth of the North-South divide in the UK

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London's economy has outstripped all other English regions with a 19% surge in growth since 2012, highlighting the divide between the capital and the rest of England.

The Office for National Statistics underlined the city's disproportionate economic heft in its first set of regional GDP figures for England and Wales, which showed the north-east with the slowest growth over the same period at 5.9%.

The West Midlands economy, home to the UK's biggest carmaker Jaguar Land Rover, came second to London after it expanded 16.5% over six years from 2012 to the end of 2018.

The figures are likely to reinforce calls for the government to renew focus on its industrial strategy, which is struggling for impetus as Whitehall pours resources into Brexit preparations.

Carys Roberts, chief economist at the IPPR thinktank and head of the Centre for Economic Justice, said: "The fact that growth from all regions of England has consistently lagged behind that from London is a clear indicator that something is wrong in the economy. Such regional inequalities hold back productivity, wages and people's standard of living and quality of life.

"We need a new industrial strategy act setting out clear goals that focus on putting this right. We should be building high-tech industrial clusters around our many world-leading research-based universities. And we should set up a new national investment bank to invest in infrastructure, innovation and business growth across England."

However, the ONS figures, compiled from about 1.9m VAT returns supplied by businesses rather than the traditional GDP method of company surveys, included quarterly data for 2018 that showed a downturn in London's fortunes. The capital's economy showed no growth in the last three months of 2018, while Wales topped the table in the final quarter with growth of 0.3%.

A flagging financial services sector was largely to blame for London's zero growth rate , having been affected by Brexit uncertainty that has resulted in thousands of jobs leaving the capital's financial district. According to the ONS data, London's financial services sector has been in recession since the third quarter of 2017. London's building industry has also proved sensitive to Brexit uncertainty, with a host of projects mothballed. However, the downturns in two key London industries have not reduced the sizeable gap with other parts of the country.

The worst-affected region most recently, according to the new figures, was the south-west. Its economy shrank in the last three months of 2018 compared with a year earlier. The figures also show that the east and south-west of England suffered technical recessions, or two successive quarters of negative growth, last year.

Representatives of the "northern powerhouse" in Manchester and the mayor of the West Midlands, Andy Street, have called for greater powers and more funds for infrastructure projects, including the much-delayed and overbudget HS2 railway line, which is intended to run from London to Birmingham, then Manchester and Leeds. However, the future of HS2 is in doubt after the government confirmed this week that the first phase of the line could be delayed by five years while the cost of the entire route has risen from £55.7bn to up to £88bn.

The Welsh economy grew in the second half of 2018, despite fears that steelworks closures and threats to the livelihoods of sheep farmers would harm the country's overall economic performance. Construction was the main driver of Wales's economic performance, while manufacturing output fell.

But it was outstripped in the final quarter of 2018 by the south-east, which expanded by 0.8%.

Economists expect the West Midlands to drop back this year as the dramatic fall in car purchases and production takes its toll on the vehicle industry. Much of the construction boom in Birmingham and the surrounding area has also followed government assurances that HS2 would be operational in the middle of the next decade.

The car industry represents one of England's biggest economic strengths outside of London, with Nissan operating a key site in Sunderland, Toyota having a presence in Derby, Mini running a plant in Oxford and Vauxhall operating sites in Ellesmere Port and Luton.

The ONS said it planned to continue using VAT data to build a more comprehensive picture of economic growth in the UK, although Scotland and Northern Ireland produce their own data, using a different methodology.
Topics

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London's 19% economic surge underlines divide with rest of England

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London's economy has outstripped all other English regions with a 19% surge in growth since 2012, highlighting the divide between the capital and the rest of England. The Office for National Statistics underlined the city's disproportionate economic heft in its first set of regional GDP figures for England and Wales, which showed the north-east with the slowest growth over the same period at 5.9%.

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Fertiliser crisis threatens our food supply

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Fertiliser crisis threatens our food supply

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Argument for organic farming over commercial farming

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The world faces an "imminent crisis" in the supply of phosphate, a critical fertiliser that underpins the world's food supply, scientists have warned.

Phosphate is an essential mineral for all life on Earth and is added to farmers' fields in huge quantities. But rock phosphate is a finite resource and the biggest supplies are mined in politically unstable places, posing risks to the many countries that have little or no reserves.

Phosphate use has quadrupled in the last 50 years as the global population has grown and the date when it is estimated to run out gets closer with each new analysis of demand, with some scientists projecting that moment could come as soon as a few decades' time.

Researchers say humanity could only produce half the food it does without phosphate and nitrogen, though the latter is essentially limitless as it makes up almost 80% of the atmosphere.

"Phosphate supply is potentially a very big problem," said Martin Blackwell, at Rothamsted Research, an agricultural research centre in the UK, and lead author of a new study. "The population is growing and we are going to need more food."

At current rates of use, a lot of countries are set to run out of their domestic supply in the next generation, including the US, China and India, he said. Morocco and the Moroccan-occupied territory of Western Sahara host by far the largest reserve, with China, Algeria and Syria the next biggest, together representing more than 80% of global rock phosphate.

phosphate reserves graphic 1

"In a few years' time, it could be a political issue with some countries effectively controlling the production of food by having control of rock phosphate supplies," Blackwell said. "There should be a lot more effort being put in so we are ready to deal with it. It is time to wake up. It is one of the most important issues in the world today."

Prof Martin van Ittersum, at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, said problems would begin before the mineral is exhausted: "Well before we run out of phosphate, the resource may become much more expensive."

Potential solutions include recycling phosphate from human sewage, manure and abattoir waste, new plant breeds that can draw the mineral from the soil more effectively and better soil tests to help end the over-application of the fertiliser.

Excessive use of phosphate is not only running down supplies but is also causing widespread pollution that leads to dead zones in rivers and seas. In 2015, research published in the journal Science cited phosphorus pollution as one of the most serious problems the planet faces, ahead of climate change.

The new study, published in the journal Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering, states: "The continued supply of phosphate fertilisers that underpin global food production is an imminent crisis."

It notes that an estimate of the remaining years of rock phosphate supply fell from 300 to 259 in just the last three years, as demand rose. "If the estimated remaining number of years supply continues to decline at this rate, it could be argued that all supplies will be exhausted by 2040," the scientists wrote.

phosphate reserves graphic 2

"While this scenario is unlikely, it does highlight that imminent, fundamental changes in the global phosphorus trade, use and recycling efforts will be necessary," they said. "This is especially pertinent in China, India and the US, the three countries with largest populations on the planet, which rely on rock phosphate to feed their people."

The European Commission declared phosphate a "critical raw material" in 2014, ie an essential resource with significant risk to supply. Only Finland has any reserves in the EU and most is imported to the bloc from Morocco, Algeria, Russia, Israel and Jordan. "The EU is highly dependent on regions currently subject to political crisis," according to an EC position paper.

Commercial phosphate fertiliser was invented at Rothamsted in 1842 by dissolving animal bones in sulphuric acid. Blackwell and his colleagues have returned to this source to investigate an alternative supply of phosphate.

They have turned bones, horns, blood and other abattoir waste into phosphate fertiliser and in new research found it worked as well or better than conventional fertiliser. Blackwell said it could potentially provide 15-25% of the UK's needs. Another potential source is recovering phosphate from human sewage; Thames Water opened a plant doing this in 2013.

Van Ittersum said recycling phosphate from animal and human waste is vital, but that this will take time to implement as new technology and regulation will be needed to ensure contamination and infection of food crops does not occur.

Reducing use is also key, said Blackwell. The soil tests available to farmers at the moment are not very advanced, he said, so farmers add extra phosphate to be sure. This means excess phosphate in most agricultural soils, estimated as representing a century's supply.

But most of this soil phosphate is bound up in organic molecules and inaccessible to plants. Some plants produce acids and enzymes that can break these down, and scientists are using genetic modification to create new plant varieties that can access this phosphate. Van Ittersum said such research was urgent as it will take a lot of time to develop more efficient crops.

Phosphate expert Marissa de Boer said the public lack of awareness means the issue is the "unknown" environmental crisis: "We really depend on phosphate but we take it for granted."

De Boer ran a five-year European Commission project on technologies to recycle phosphate and now runs SusPhos, a company looking to commercialise ways of extracting phosphate from human waste, food waste and industrial waste. She said recycled phosphate could meet the Netherlands' needs if the technology proves successful: "As long as people have got to go to the toilet, and wastewater treatment is centralised, we can use our own phosphate."
Topics

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Phosphate fertiliser 'crisis' threatens world food supply

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The world faces an "imminent crisis" in the supply of phosphate, a critical fertiliser that underpins the world's food supply, scientists have warned. Phosphate is an essential mineral for all life on Earth and is added to farmers' fields in huge quantities.

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Sustainable management of tropical rainforests

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Palm oil is used in everything from cosmetics to food to soap. There is enormous demand for it. But it is hugely controversial because it involves the clearing of tropical rainforests to grow palm oil plantations. This has led to the loss of biodiversity and habitat for under-threat animals such as the orang-utan.

But some companies are signing up to comply with a standard known as "sustainable" palm oil. BBC environment correspondent Claire Marshall explains.

There is a generally-agreed global standard set by the Round Table on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), which is made up of oil palm growers, retailers, NGOs and manufacturers.

To become officially "sustainable", a company pledges not to clear any primary forest, to have transparent supply chains, to check how much carbon they are emitting, to limit planting on peatlands, to treat workers fairly, and create wildlife zones.

Is beauty killing the beasts?

Used cooking oil imports may boost deforestation

Who is using it?

In 2016 75% of the total palm oil imports to the UK were sustainable. Many large retailers and leading brands use it. Chester has declared itself the first sustainable palm oil city in the country.

Why haven't I heard of it before?

According to the largest player in the sustainable palm oil industry, Sime Darby Plantation, the companies that buy it often don't then make it clear on product labels. One reason could be that because palm oil is so controversial few companies want to be linked to it - even if it's sustainable.

What are the problems with it?

Several leading environment charities say the rules aren't strict enough and the sanctions aren't strong enough. A recent report by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature said there was "limited evidence of the conservation effectiveness."

So ... why not just ban palm oil?

We are unlikely to stop demanding things like ice cream, soap or ready meals. The vast majority of these need vegetable oil to be made - and palm oil is the most productive vegetable oil crop on the planet.

Alternatives are sunflower oil, or rapeseed, or coconut. But palm oil is far more productive, yielding up to ten times more oil from the same amount of land. Put it another way: ten times more land would be needed to grow these other crops to get the same amount of oil.

Most leading environmental charities are not calling for a boycott, saying it would just shift problems to different parts of the world - and maybe make matters worse.

How can I find sustainable palm oil?

It's tricky, because often it's not used. But there is a label.

There is also a free app called Giki, recommended by WWF, where you use a smartphone to scan the barcode.

You can watch the full documentary, Unmasked: Make-Up's Big Secret on iPlayer. If you're from outside the UK you can watch the film here.

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Palm oil is used in everything from cosmetics to food to soap. There is enormous demand for it. But it is hugely controversial because it involves the clearing of tropical rainforests to grow palm oil plantations. This has led to the loss of biodiversity and habitat for under-threat animals such as the orang-utan.

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Amazon fire crisis: The people of the Amazon

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Amazon fire crisis: The people of the Amazon

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Who is responsible for protecting indigenous tribes?

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Indigenous communities living in Amazon's Xingu river basin are reportedly putting aside long-running ethnic conflicts to unite against Jair Bolsonaro's administration.

Representatives of 14 indigenous groups and four riverside reserves in the basin met in the Kubenkokre village last week.

Forest fires, thought to be deliberately started, are currently ravaging the Amazon, with critics blaming Jair Bolsonaro's government for encouraging people to clear the land for farming, logging and mining.

The landmark meeting of indigenous communities was hosted by the Kayapós group, one of the largest communities in the river basin, according to .

"Today we have only one enemy, which is the Brazilian government, the president of Brazil, and the invasions of non-indigenous people," Mudjire Kayapó, one of the leaders present, told the broadcaster.

"We have internal fights, but to fight this government, we join."

The participating communities have decided to form a representative council, to strengthen their collective political voice.

The Kayapós invited representatives of the Panara people to the meeting, despite the two groups having fought violently in the past.

The Kayapós notably massacred the Panaras in 1968, during a fight in which they used firearms despite the latter tribe being armed only with arrows.

"We killed the Kayapó, the Kayapó killed us...but we didn't know what was happening....we didn't know about that [white] threat yet," said Sinku Panara, one of the Panara leaders.

"Then we cool our heads, reconcile, talk to each other again and we will not fight anymore.

"Because there is a common interest for us to fight together, so that non-Indians don't kill us all."

Mr Bolsonaro's poll ratings have fallen rapidly since the Amazon fires took hold, according to the Datafolha polling institute - the number of people who think the far-right leader is doing a "bad or terrible" job rose to 38 per cent from 33 per cent in July, as his government's handling of the surging fires divided the country.

The president campaigned on numerous culture war issues, including bringing development to the rainforest.

As Brazil struggles through a prolonged economic stagnation, the allure of the Amazon has grown, even as scientists warn that development will accelerate rising deforestation.

On the day after his inauguration, Mr Bolsonaro decried the fact that 15 per cent of Brazil's territory is reserved for indigenous tribes.

"Let's integrate these citizens and bring value to all Brazilians, " he tweeted.

It's estimated that nearly 50,000 Amazon blazes have ignited this month alone, 89 per cent more than in August 2018 on a scale not seen since 2010.

The devastating fires have prompted global concern over the Amazon, which provides 20 per cent of the world's oxygen supply.

The largest rainforest in the world, it is vital for slowing down the pace of global warming.

Mr Bolsonaro has dismissed global worries over the fires and has insisted the blazes are under control.

On Monday the 64-year-old pulled out of a regional summit which he had convened to discuss the impact of the fires.

Mr Bolsonaro said he would not be attending the meeting, which will be held in Colombia on Friday, because of an upcoming surgery to treat a hernia.

The politician was stabbed in the abdomen during the presidential campaign.

He said he would be willing to discuss the fires at the next UN General Assembly in September.

"I will appear before the UN even in a wheelchair, on a stretcher," he claimed.

"I will appear because I want to talk about the Amazon."
Additional reporting by agencies

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Warring Amazon tribes unite to fight Brazil president's plans to devastate rainforests for cash

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Indigenous communities living in Amazon's Xingu river basin are reportedly putting aside long-running ethnic conflicts to unite against Jair Bolsonaro's administration. Representatives of 14 indigenous groups and four riverside reserves in the basin met in the Kubenkokre village last week.

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Visible effects of climate change - evidence to prove climate change exists?

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By David Shukman
Science editor

Greenland's massive ice sheet may have melted by a record amount this year, scientists have warned.

During this year alone, it lost enough ice to raise the average global sea level by more than a millimetre.

Researchers say they're "astounded" by the acceleration in melting and fear for the future of cities on coasts around the world.

One glacier in southern Greenland has thinned by as much as 100 metres since I last filmed on it back in 2004.

Why does Greenland matter?

Essentially because its ice sheet is seven times the area of the UK and up to 2-3km thick in places. It stores so much frozen water that if the whole thing melted, it would raise sea levels worldwide by up to 7m.

No one is suggesting that could happen for hundreds or even thousands of years but even a small increase in the rate of melting in coming decades could threaten millions of people living in low-lying areas.

Bangladesh, Florida, and eastern England are among many areas known to be particularly vulnerable to rises in sea level over the course of the century.

And although the island of Greenland is remote, stretching from the north of the Atlantic high into the Arctic, its fate could have major implications for the severity of future flooding and may even alter coastlines and force communities to move inland.

Media caption,
A visit to the Sermilik glacier, which is rapidly melting

One of the scientists studying the ice sheet, Dr Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), says he's unnerved by the potential dangers and that coastal planners need to "brace themselves".

"Now that I'm starting to understand more of the consequences, it's actually keeping me awake at night because I realise the significance of this place around the world and the livelihoods that are already affected by sea level rise," he told me.

Image caption,
Dr Jason Box, Geological Survey of Denmark

How much is Greenland melting?

Until recently, the ice sheet was generally in a state of balance - the amount of snow falling in winter was roughly equal to the amount of ice melting in summer.

Last year, there was actually a gain in ice but that was relatively unusual. Over the last 30 years, decade-by-decade, Greenland has tended to shed more ice.

Either the ice melts at the surface which sends torrents of water down to the surrounding seas or huge chunks of ice break off from the margins and float away as icebergs, gradually to melt.

Recent years have seen hundreds of billions of tonnes of ice lost - and a rough guide to the effect on sea level is that 362 billion tonnes of melt raises the average ocean level by a millimetre.

That doesn't sound a lot but in 2012 Greenland's loss totalled about 450 billion tonnes, and this year's melt is on course to produce about the same, or even slightly more, with some researchers suggesting it could raise sea levels by up to 2mm.

And on top of that you have to factor in the ice melting in Antarctica plus the effect of water expanding as it warms. It all raises the level of the oceans.

According to Dr Box, it's the recent increase in the average temperature that's being felt in Greenland's ice: "Already effectively that's a death sentence for the Greenland ice sheet because also going forward in time we're expecting temperatures only to climb," he said.

"So, we're losing Greenland - it's really a question of how fast."

How rapidly is the ice sheet changing?

I've seen for myself what's happened to one corner of it. Sermilik glacier at the southern end is not one of Greenland's largest but it does rank as one of the fastest-shrinking streams of ice anywhere in the world.

To reach it back in 2004, we flew past towering cliffs of ice, the front of the glacier an immense wall of pale grey and blue standing high above the sea.

At that time, we accompanied a scientist who checked instruments positioned on the ice and he was stunned to see how the surface of the glacier was dropping by as much as a metre every month.

And over the past 15 years, that rate of shrinking has continued so aggressively that now, on a return visit to the same glacier, the ice looks diminished, almost battered, and far less dominating in the landscape.

Jason Box is with me and he gathers the latest readings which show that over this summer alone the glacier has shrunk by an estimated 9m. "That's an astounding rate of loss," he said.

Since my last visit, the surface of this margin of the ice sheet has lowered by an extraordinary 100m, more than halving in thickness, exposing the remaining ice to the relatively warmer temperatures of lower altitudes.

What's happening to the ice itself?

While you might think of the Arctic as a pristine white landscape, the startling feature of the surface is how dirty it looks. Walking on it feels like arriving on the Moon.

There are big areas of pale grey and smaller patches that are much darker, covered with what appears to be mud or silt - it's a grim and rather depressing sight.

Image caption,
Algae growing on the Sermilik glacier

It used to be thought that this darkness was mainly caused by a mix of dust and pollution particles carried on the winds from distant power stations and industrial centres.

But since my last visit to Sermilik glacier, scientists have made an important breakthrough in understanding that a major cause of the darkening is in fact biological - algae, microscopically small plants that are flourishing in the melting ice.

By turning the surface grey, or black, from its usual bright white, the algae make it less reflective, so it absorbs more of the Sun's rays. This accelerates the warming and in turn leads to even more melting.

Who's trying to work out what's going on?

With the stakes so high for so many millions of people around the world, Greenland is the target of a major international research effort involving satellites, monitoring flights and expeditions on the ice itself.

Media caption,
Nasa visualisation of the melting Greenland ice sheet

The US space agency Nasa has for years run projects investigating exactly what's causing the ice to melt and what could happen to it in future.

Back in 2005, I reported on a Nasa-funded team that made an important discovery about the movement of the ice sheet.

Although the great mass of ice looks immobile, it's actually always inching down towards the coast and the team found that this movement doubles in speed in summer - as meltwater from the surface works its way to the bottom of the ice and helps it to slide along.

Another revelation is that the ice is not only being melted by the air, as the atmosphere heats up, but also by warmer water reaching underneath the fronts of the glaciers. One Nasa scientist describes the ice as being under a hair-dryer and at the same time also on a cooker.

And Jason Box and his colleagues at GEUS run a network of sensors on the ice to record details of the height of the surface and its reflectivity, and how they're changing.

The hardest challenge for the scientific community is understanding enough of the mechanisms of the ice sheet to be able to offer reliable forecasts of sea level rise.

Dr Masashi Niwano, a researcher with the Japan Meteorological Agency, is just back from a field trip to gather data to try to validate his computer simulations of the ice.

"The ice sheet mass is decreasing - that is very certain. And these results affect global sea-level rise - that is also very certain," he said.

"But maybe there are several physical processes that we don't understand, so developing future projections is very difficult."

What do the people of Greenland make of all this?

There are only 56,000 Greenlanders, and they live in communities perched on the narrow band of land at the edge of the ice sheet which, though close, is usually out of sight.

Image caption,
Inutsiaq Ibsen, 18, Naja-Theresia Høegh, 19, and Caroline Hartmann Hansen, 21, in Qaqortoq

In the village of Narsaq, Christian Mortensen tells me a glacier that was visible when he was younger has since retreated and that icebergs seem to "break more and more" into the waters.

Warmer conditions would allow more farming and, as we talk, cattle are grazing around us on pasture that's beside bright white chunks of ice bobbing in the sea.

But for some young Greenlanders, climate change is becoming a big concern, partly because of the impact of "their" ice on other areas of the planet.

Naja-Theresia Høegh, who's just finished school, was inspired by the Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg to lead a climate strike in her town of Qaqortoq, a pretty port of brightly painted houses.

She describes a boat trip to the edge of the ice sheet where she found it "astonishing and scary" that so much water could flow out.

"All of that is ending up in our waters, into the sea, and to the rest of the world and, if this continues, it will someday just cover a whole country," Ms Høegh explained.

Her friend Caroline Hartmann Hansen also talked about her fears over the uncontrolled nature of the melting. "It's not our fault; it's everyone's," she said.

Can anything be done?

If the calculations of Jason Box and his colleagues are right, the ice sheet is already crossing a threshold into an era in which there may still be years with net gains of ice - like last year - but the new normal will see more big losses.

Even with a rapid move to cut emissions of warming gases - as outlined in the 2015 Paris climate agreement - Greenland could still see a growing rate of melting, though that could possibly be slowed.

So, as with the young Greenland climate campaigners, the scientists feel the need to take action of their own.

They have started a scheme to try to absorb some of the carbon dioxide emitted by the flights they take to conduct their research; Jason said he has been criticised for his high carbon footprint and "feels guilty about it".

Image caption,
Dr Faezeh Nick plants tree saplings near Narsarsuaq

Close to the airport at Narsarsuaq, which connects them to the glaciers of southern Greenland, the researchers are planting 6,000 saplings of Siberian larch, a type of tree known to do well in conditions here.

They admit that 10 of the trees would need to grow for 60 years to absorb the carbon produced by a return flight from London to San Francisco, but they say it's a start and that if the project later leads to a much larger forest, it might "make a dent" in climate change.

Meanwhile, as memories of last month's polar heatwave fade, the scientists are leaving ahead of the winter nights, to try to hone their predictions for what the scarred and darkened ice sheet is likely do next.

Produced by David Brown, Robert Magee, Kate Stephens and Nassos Stylianou. Edited by Paul Rincon and Jonathan Amos.

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Climate change: Greenland’s ice faces melting ‘death sentence’

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The massive ice sheet covering Greenland may have melted by a record amount this year, scientists say.

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Climate Change’s impact of tropical storms

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Climate Change’s impact of tropical storms

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Has global heating increased the intensity, frequency and location of tropical storms?

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Show caption
'As climate change has melted glaciers and ice around the world, that water has gone into the oceans.' Photograph: Ramón Espinosa/AP

The Bahamas, for those who live there, is simply a place to call home. For many Americans, it's a dream vacation spot. But Hurricane Dorian turned that dream into a nightmare. And the worst part is this is only the beginning. Because unless we confront the climate crisis, warming will turn more and more of our fantastic landscapes, cities we call paradise and other dream destinations into nightmarish hellscapes.
Hurricane Dorian edges 'dangerously close' to Florida after battering Bahamas
While the science has yet to come in on the specifics of just how much worse climate change made Dorian, we already know enough to say that warming worsened the damage. Because it's not a coincidence that Dorian was one of the strongest landfalling storms ever recorded in the Atlantic, with the strongest sustained peak winds east of Florida, and the strongest ever to hit the Bahamas. This comes less than a year after Florida withstood the first landfalling category 5 hurricane in decades, on 5 October - the latest ever in the season for a storm that strong.
Opinion

We know that warm waters fuel hurricanes, and Dorian was strengthened by waters well above average temperatures

On a basic physics level, we know that warm waters fuel hurricanes, and Dorian was strengthened by waters well above average temperatures. The fact that climate change has heated up our oceans means Dorian was stronger than it would have been had we not spent the past 150 years dumping carbon pollution into the atmosphere. Sea surface temperatures were more than 1C warmer in the region where Dorian formed and strengthened than they were before we started burning fossil fuels.

Empirically, there is a roughly 7% increase in maximum sustained wind speeds of the strongest storms for each 1C of warming. Since destructive potential is proportional to the third power of the wind speed, that corresponds to a 23% increase in potential wind damage. We saw that wind damage in the heartbreaking scenes of total devastation that have come in from the Bahamas.

We know that the warmer air gets, the more moisture it can hold - and then turn into flooding rains in a storm like this. And we know that as climate change has melted glaciers and ice around the world, that water has gone into the oceans. The extra water, along with the expansion of water as it's warmed, means that sea levels have been raised. That means when a storm like Dorian makes landfall, there's more water for its storm surge, already bolstered by stronger winds, to push further inland.

All that extra water makes hurricanes even more deadly, since it's generally not the wind but the water that kills people. So although Dorian's 220mph gusts were incredibly dangerous ( and sped up thanks to climate change), it was the 20-plus feet of storm surge and torrential rains that were the most destructive elements.
How much destruction is needed for us to take climate change seriously?
But there are two other ways that warming has probably worsened Dorian's damage. One is that all that warm water allowed for the storm to ramp up quickly, undergoing what is known as rapid intensification as it exploded from a moderate category 2 to extreme category 5 over just two days. A recent study has shown that this is getting more common because of climate change, and indeed the past few years have seen many similar examples of this effect in action. Dorian was the fourth category 5 storm in just the last four years.

So while climate change is making it so hurricanes can spin up quickly, it may also be slowing down how fast hurricanes move. Instead of moving across a coast and dissipating as normal, in recent years these storms are lingering longer in place, which means more flooding as the water piles up. For example, that's exactly what we saw in Houston during Harvey, and in North Carolina during Florence.

Had Dorian been moving at a regular pace of a few miles an hour, the devastation in the Bahamas would have been much less severe. But because it sat in place, basically stationary, the damage has been catastrophic. Again, Dorian is far from unique in moving slowly, as a study last year found a 10% decrease in speed for storms like this globally, while a similar study found a 17% decrease along the east coast of the US. While neither of these studies directly tie that slowdown to climate change, the theory that climate change is changing the jet stream in ways that would lead to stalling storms (a phenomenon one of us has researched) is growing increasingly convincing.

When all these factors combine in one storm, as it has for Dorian, it is truly a nightmare scenario - and a preview of the climate crisis to come. The only question is whether we have the foresight to address it.

Michael Mann is distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University. His most recent book, with Tom Toles, is The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy. Andrew Dessler is a professor of atmospheric sciences and holder of the Reta A Haynes chair of geosciences at Texas A&M University. His most recent book is the Science and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Guide to the Debate

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Global heating made Hurricane Dorian bigger, wetter - and more deadly

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The Bahamas, for those who live there, is simply a place to call home. For many Americans, it's a dream vacation spot. But Hurricane Dorian turned that dream into a nightmare. And the worst part is this is only the beginning.

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Amazon Rainforest Fires: 7 countries sign a protection pact. 

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Amazon Rainforest Fires: 7 countries sign a protection pact. 

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You can use this article to answer questions on management of tropical rainforests.

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Meanwhile, Brazil's leading meat export industry group and agricultural businesses have joined an environmental campaign calling for an end to deforestation in public lands in the Amazon and demanding government action.

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Amazon fires: Seven countries sign forest protection pact

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Meanwhile, Brazil's leading meat export industry group and agricultural businesses have joined an environmental campaign calling for an end to deforestation in public lands in the Amazon and demanding government action.

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Immediate Responses to a Tropical Storm

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Hurricane Dorian: 70,000 in 'immediate need of lifesaving' help in Bahamas - as it happened

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Republicans Marco Rubio, Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis head to Bahamas as category 1 storm makes landfall at Cape Hatteras in North Carolina

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The future threat of hurricanes for the Bahamas 

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The future threat of hurricanes for the Bahamas 

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We had gone through this countless times. On the eve that Dorian made landfall in the Bahamas, we knew the drill. Board up your home, secure your belongings and stock up on food, water, non-perishable items and the good snacks.

Bahamians had faced down the merciless beatings of Hurricane Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, Wilma, Joaquin, Matthew, Irma and more. We thought we knew the score. But no one could anticipate that mother nature could be this angry and cruel. Once the water subsides, the debris is cleared and the bodies are counted, what hope will be left for the Abacos and Grand Bahama?

We have three full months left in this hurricane season, but two of the country's largest economic contributors and heavily populated Family Islands have already been simultaneously attacked and decimated to some extent. The gravity of this has not yet set in.

Will we have to go through this again? Can we continue to sustain this way of living?

Will we have to go through this again? Can we continue to sustain this way of living?

Our small-island developing state currently grapples with high unemployment, challenges in generating economic growth and a vulnerability to natural disasters. These are the questions and concerns we face in the aftermath of another deadly storm.

How much more can one island nation take?

Despite continued efforts for growth and a thirst for stability in the islands, the Bahamas are always threatened by hurricanes - every year, in the period between 1 June and 30 November. What else can we do but remain resilient and continue to build stronger?

Scientists have warned that climate change is shaping tropical systems. Global carbon emissions reached all-time highs during 2018, and global surface temperatures are likely to increase the intensity of storms. Over the past three years many other countries in the region, including Dominica, Jamaica and Cuba, have met similar disastrous fates with the passage of hurricanes. Our islands are in need of global support to ward off possible extinction.

Today we weep for the trauma and devastation that have visited our shores. Our hearts ache at the survivors' tales being recounted and the number of people not yet accounted for. The country is on edge, our nerves are frayed, and we just want relief for our fellow countrymen. We still do not know exactly how many people are dead or how many may still be trapped, holding out for rescue. The fear is that the loss of life will be " staggering ".

In real time, Bahamians throughout the archipelago fortunate enough to escape Dorian's wrath held their breath and watched in horror as familiar streets and homes were swallowed by the rising tide, and memories of generations birthed were washed away.

Although Abaco had lost some phone network services since Sunday - from one of its only two providers - videos and photos circulated quickly. One friend posted on Facebook that she hadn't spoken to her family on the island all day. A neighbour hadn't heard from his mother since she told him that they were waiting to be rescued. Their call had been disconnected abruptly and he waited in anguish to hear from her again. I watched as he frantically and repeatedly called her number the next day when phone services on the island were said to be back up, hoping to no avail that someone would pick up. I heard from relatives that two of my cousins were missing. The degrees of separation closed in as thousands of Bahamians took to social media to search for loved ones and make fervent pleas for rescue.

There was just no preparing for this monstrous storm. Roofs were blown off shingle by shingle; vehicles were overturned and submerged in water; and buildings were disassembled, ripped down to their skeletons and toppled like playing cards. The boundaries where the ocean and land had once met were erased. The sea moved inland and the sharks with it. The water moved in fast and ferociously, smothering everything in its path. The sheer force of the surge burst into living rooms, invading the inner crevices of people's property. People huddled into ceiling and attic spaces to wait out the rampage, their futures uncertain.

After Hurricane Dorian, the normal procedures of disaster prevention, preparation and mitigation will simply not be sufficient. We are now facing the difference between living and surviving. It is paramount that the ways forward prioritise resilience-building, fighting climate change and the preservation of life.
'Everything is destroyed': devastation in Bahamas as Dorian rattles US
The devastation of Dorian will be recorded in the country's history, alongside the tales of the Great Abaco hurricane of 1932 and the 1926 hurricanes. It is my hope that the world will not get disaster fatigue and the Bahamas will not be forgotten. We are still in grave need of international support.

Nasa astronaut Scott Kelly called the Bahamas "the most beautiful place from space". In my biased opinion, that real-world imagery ought to be preserved.

While it remains unclear what the future of Grand Bahama and the Abacos will be, or what the long-term impacts of this storm will have on Bahamians, what is certain is that there is only one way forward. We must move upward, onward and together to rebuild. It's only a matter of how long it will take.

* Sloan Smith is a former reporter for the Nassau Guardian newspaper
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For the Bahamas, hurricanes like Dorian are now an existential threat | Sloan Smith

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We had gone through this countless times. On the eve that Dorian made landfall in the Bahamas, we knew the drill. Board up your home, secure your belongings and stock up on food, water, non-perishable items and the good snacks. Bahamians had faced down the merciless beatings of Hurricane Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, Wilma, Joaquin, Matthew, Irma and more.

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Hurricane Dorian traps hundreds on North Carolina

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Hundreds of people may be trapped on a North Carolina island amid rising floodwater after Hurricane Dorian made landfall, the state governor has warned.

The storm struck the islands popular with holidaymakers days after causing at least 30 deaths in the Bahamas.

Roy Cooper warned of storm surges on the island of Ocracoke, where 800 people were said to have stayed behind.

In the Bahamas, officials say hundreds, possibly thousands, are still missing.

The official death toll is expected to increase to a "staggering" level, the country's government says.

Officials are sending morticians and 200 body bags to the Abaco Islands, the worst-hit part of the archipelago.

In pictures: How Dorian devastated the Bahamas

Path of destruction

'Hurricane's storm surge swallowed my son, 5'

Have you been affected by Hurricane Dorian? Email haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk

"The public needs to prepare for unimaginable information about the death toll and the human suffering," Health Minister Duane Sands told local radio.

What is happening on Ocracoke?

The storm made landfall at Cape Hatteras at 09:00 local time (13:00 GMT), with winds of 90mph (150 km/h), but by 11:00 local time its eye had moved about 50 miles to the north-east.

However it lashed the Outer Banks islands with hurricane force winds as far as 45 miles away from the eye and with tropical storm winds up to 200 miles away, the National Hurricane Center said.

Mr Cooper said there was "significant concern" for those reportedly trapped on Ocracoke and urged them to get to high ground. Rescue teams were ready to deploy as soon as the area became accessible, he said.

Local weather officials posted video of a storm surge causing severe flooding in Ocracoke.

Image Copyright @NWSMoreheadCity @NWSMoreheadCity Report

Image Copyright @NWSMoreheadCity @NWSMoreheadCityReport

Now downgraded to a category 1 hurricane, Dorian is moving north-east at about 17mph. It is expected to make landfall again on Saturday in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia.

Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous winds are still expected in Virginia and other north-eastern states.

Three storm-related deaths have been reported in Florida and another in North Carolina. All four people died while preparing their homes and shelters for the storm.

It has also caused severe flooding and widespread power failures in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

In the Carolinas, more than 900,000 people were ordered to evacuate their homes, but it was unclear how many had complied.

Forecasters said 10 inches (25 cm) of rain had fallen between the coasts of Charleston in South Carolina and Wilmington 170 miles away in North Carolina.

What is the damage to Bahamas?

Dorian hit the Bahamas as a category five hurricane with winds reaching 185mph (298km/h). It matched the highest ever recorded at landfall, and stayed over affected areas for two days.

In its wake, at least 70,000 Bahamians needed immediate humanitarian relief.

The International Red Cross fears 45% of homes on Grand Bahama and the Abacos - some 13,000 properties - were severely damaged or destroyed.

Parts of the Bahamas received up to 35in (89cm) of rain, leaving vast areas of it flooded.

The Island of Great Abaco is virtually uninhabitable, with bodies piled up, no water, power or food, and militias formed to prevent looting, local media report.

Aerial images over the Abacos showed mile upon mile of destruction, with roofs torn off, scattered debris, overturned cars, shipping containers and boats, and high water levels.

The only international airport in Grand Bahama was also devastated. As a result, it could not be used for evacuations or aid deliveries.

Dorian: Who is helping the survivors?

Flood waters have reportedly rendered the Grand Bahamas' main hospital unusable, according to the Associated Press news agency.

What is the latest on the aid effort?

The Bahamas' government has signed an emergency declaration giving tax exemptions to medicine, building supplies and other goods that can be used for relief efforts.

International aid operations have been primarily focused on Grand Bahama and the Abacos, which were hit worst.

Search-and-rescue teams have been combing the worst-hit communities looking for any trace of survivors and bodies. As of Friday, the US Coast Guard said it had rescued 205 residents.

Meanwhile, efforts to deliver aid are being ramped up. Planes and helicopters have been flying in emergency supplies to help the estimated 76,000 people in need of food and shelter.

Eight tonnes (8,000kg) of ready-to-eat meals, storage units, generators and other emergency suppliers are to be flown in from Panama, the UN World Food Programme said.

A $5.4m (£4.3m) budget has been allocated to the UN agency for a three-month emergency operation in the Bahamas.

Is climate change making hurricanes worse?

According to the NHC, a "hurricane season" runs in the Atlantic Ocean between 1 June and 30 November.

The term denotes a period when most of the year's tropical cyclones take place in the Atlantic, though it typically peaks in the late summer.

Scientists cannot say whether climate change is increasing the number of hurricanes, but the ones that do happen are likely to be more powerful and more destructive because of our warming climate, says BBC Weather's Tomasz Schafernaker.

Here's why:

An increase in sea surface temperatures strengthens the wind speeds within storms and also raises the amount of precipitation a hurricane will dump

Sea levels are expected to increase by one to four feet over the next century, bringing the potential of far worse damage from sea surges and coastal flooding during storms

Use our guide to see how these deadly storms form, their devastating effects and how they are measured:
How have you been affected by Hurricane Dorian? Share your experiences by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk .

Please include a contact number if you are willing to speak to a BBC journalist. You can also contact us in the following ways:

WhatsApp: +44 7756 165803

Tweet: @BBC_HaveYourSay

Send pictures/video to yourpics@bbc.co.uk

Upload your pictures / video here

Text an SMS or MMS to 61124 or +44 7624 800 100

Please read our terms of use and privacy policy

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Dorian 'traps hundreds' on North Carolina coast

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Hundreds of people may be trapped on a North Carolina island amid rising floodwater after Hurricane Dorian made landfall, the state governor has warned. The storm struck the islands popular with holidaymakers days after causing at least 30 deaths in the Bahamas.

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Excellent up to date case study information for Hurricane Dorian - you can use this in questions about effects and responses of tropical storms, and add study questions.

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Heavy rains from Hurricane Dorian are battering the south-eastern seaboard of the US after causing at least 30 deaths and much destruction in the Bahamas.

Dorian, now a category one storm, has left thousands of homes in South and North Carolina without power as it moves slowly northwards.

Forecasters warn that some areas could experience dangerous storm surges.

On 1 September, Dorian hit the Bahamas with winds of up to 185mph - equalling the highest ever recorded at landfall.

It battered the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, in the north of the archipelago, for two days.

Officials say the final death toll in the Bahamas will be staggering.

Dorian is expected to weaken slowly over the next few days.

It currently has maximum sustained winds of 90mph (150km/h), down from 105mph earlier in the day.

Bahamas PM Hubert Minnis called the storm "one of the greatest national crises in our country's history". He expected the number of fatalities to increase.

What's the latest on the storm?

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that at 02:00 local time (06:00 GMT) Dorian was 55 miles (90km) east of Wilmington in North Carolina and moving north-east at about 15mph.

The NHC said Dorian would move "near or over" the coast of North Carolina in the next few hours.

In South Carolina, more than 250,000 homes and businesses in coastal areas were left without power, officials said.

Social media footage showed flooding in the centre of the city of Charleston.

Graphics showed waters could rise up to 8ft (2.4m) above ground level on the South Carolina coast, and up to 15in of rain could fall in the coming days.

More than 2.2 million people have been ordered to evacuate along the eastern seaboard.

Mile upon mile of destruction
Aleem Maqbool, BBC News, the Abaco Islands
We've heard about the record-breaking strength of Hurricane Dorian for days now but to see the impact on the ground is staggering.

Roofs were just lifted up and slammed to the ground, buildings all but destroyed. Having flown over the Abaco Islands, I can tell you there is mile upon mile of this.

The northern Bahamas have borne the brunt of the storm's ire. This is where, in the coming days, the humanitarian needs are going to be acute.

What's the latest in the Bahamas?

Although Grand Bahama suffered severe damage and floods, the Abaco Islands were hardest hit. Footage taken from the air showed vast swathes of destruction. Homes, roads and businesses were torn apart, and high waters remain.

The official death toll so far is 30, but Health Minister Duane Sands said he believed the final toll would be far higher.

"Let me say that I believe the number will be staggering," he told local radio.

"I have never lived through anything like this and I don't want to live through anything like this again."

"There's nothing left in most of Marsh Harbour," said Alicia Cook, who evacuated from the area in the Abaco Islands. "People are starting to panic: pillaging, looting."

Bob Cornea also spoke to the BBC in the capital Nassau after being evacuated from Marsh Harbour. He said he and his wife had taken shelter on the second storey of their son's house.

"Water was up to my neck. It stayed like that for two or three hours... My son... he got us out and we got over to safety.

"We've been through all kinds of hurricanes, all kinds of storms: never anything that bad. I mean, it was like we were standing in the middle of the ocean. That's what it looked like. Waves, the water just crashing in over us. Horrifying. Absolutely horrifying."

The British Royal Navy vessel RFA Mounts Bay has begun landing personnel and emergency aid on the Abacos. Helicopters and three UK humanitarian experts have been helping to co-ordinate the rescue response.

The aid operation on Grand Bahama has been hampered by severe damage to its airport.

The International Red Cross fears 45% of homes on Grand Bahama and the Abacos - some 13,000 properties - were severely damaged or destroyed.

Some 70,000 people are in "immediate need" of aid, UN officials said.

Is climate change making hurricanes worse?

Scientists cannot say whether climate change is increasing the number of hurricanes, but the ones that do happen are likely to be more powerful and more destructive because of our warming climate, says BBC Weather's Tomasz Schafernaker.

Here's why:

An increase in sea surface temperatures strengthens the wind speeds within storms and also raises the amount of precipitation a hurricane will dump

Sea levels are expected to increase by one to four feet over the next century, bringing the potential of far worse damage from sea surges and coastal flooding during storms

Use our guide to see how these deadly storms form, their devastating effects and how they are measured:
How have you been affected by Hurricane Dorian? Share your experiences by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk .

Please include a contact number if you are willing to speak to a BBC journalist. You can also contact us in the following ways:

WhatsApp: +44 7756 165803

Tweet: @BBC_HaveYourSay

Send pictures/video to yourpics@bbc.co.uk

Upload your pictures / video here

Text an SMS or MMS to 61124 or +44 7624 800 100

Please read our terms of use and privacy policy

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Hurricane Dorian lashes US as Bahamas counts cost

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Heavy rains from Hurricane Dorian are battering the south-eastern seaboard of the US after causing at least 30 deaths and much destruction in the Bahamas. Dorian, now a category one storm, has left thousands of homes in South and North Carolina without power as it moves slowly northwards.