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The replacement bus however takes 2 hours longer than the original train booked to get you to your destination but is leaving at the scheduled time. 

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You have a choice of two shortcuts:

Shortcut A: 95% chance of not saving any time at all, and a 5% chance of saving two hours

Shortcut B: 100% chance of saving 6 minutes

You have a choice of two coach routes that will take you to the same destination, however both routes involve a degree of traffic:

coach route A: 50% chance of not being delayed at all, and a 50% chance of being delayed by 4 hours

coach route B: 100% chance of being delayed by 2 hours

For only today, congestion charges for two routes will be dropped. At face value this may reduce your journey time however, as all drivers have been made aware of this, there may be even greater congestion. What route do you take?

Route A: a 50% chance of being delayed by two and a half hours and a 50% chance of saving four and a half hours

Route B: a 50% chance of being delayed by one hour and a 50% chance of saving three hours

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1.a You are at your local the supermarket. There three cashiers. There are three in line for all cashiers, however the three cashiers vary in speed, with two cashiers being faster than the third. However, the speediest of the cashiers has a bladder problem, and there is therefore a probability that they will go to the toilet, making you wait longer in queue. Which cashier would you choose?

Cashier 1: 95 % chance of going to the toilet making you wait in line for as long as the slowest cashier and a 5% of getting you through 20 min faster.

Cashier 2: 100 % chance of getting you through one minute faster.

2. You are preparing a soup for dinner, which needs to boil before it is finished. Would you rather?

a. Stay in the kitchen for 15 min. waiting for it to boil.

B: leaving the kitchen, doing something you enjoy for a while but with a 5% risk that it has made a mess by the time you get back, having to spend 30 min. cleaning.

3. You plan to visit a friend in London, who lives 30 min. by foot away from your home. There is also a direct bus to his place, but there has been occasional route disruption lately. Would you rather?

a. walk.

b. Take a bus with a 50 % chance of saving 10 min. and a 50 % chance of losing 10 min.

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Choices Practical: Translated Decisions about Time

You need to get from City A to City B, and are thinking of taking a new train to get there. Taking the new train will get you to City B two hours faster than your normal train. However, you are running late leaving from your house and there is a 50% chance you will miss the new train from the new station, which only comes every 2.5 hours.

Do you…

A.    Take your normal train, and get to City B in the same amount of time as always

B.    Prefer a 50% chance of catching the new train and saving yourself 2 hours, and a 50% chance of missing it and having to wait on the platform for 2.5 hours.

Today there is traffic due to an accident on your normal route to work, which is usually the quickest way to get there. There is an alternative, more complex route you can use, but it will take you 2 hours longer. On the other hand, there is a 50% chance the traffic on your normal route will have cleared by the time you reach the site of the accident, if not you will spend 4 hours in a traffic jam.

Do you prefer…

A.    A 50% chance of losing no time, and a 50% chance to lose 4 hours

B.    A 100% chance to lose 2 hours

You are planning a trip to City C with a group of friends. Taking the bus to City C will take you a long time due to the many stopovers. Luckily, two friends offer to drive you in their car instead. Alina, who is scared of driving on highways and so remains very far under the speed limit at all times, will get you to City C 2 hours faster than the bus. Serena can get you to City C 4 hours faster than the bus, however there is a 50% chance that she will stop on the way to meet and catch up with her friend who lives outside of City C, in which case you will save no time.

Do you prefer…

A.    A 50% chance to save no time, and a 50% chance to save 4 hours

B.    A 100% chance to save 2 hours

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You are on your way to university and have booked your train to London. You have been alerted that there maybe major delays on the train line which could lead to cancellation of the train, and it is suggested to get a replacement bus. The replacement bus however takes 2 hours longer than the original train booked to get you to your destination but is leaving at the scheduled time. Alternatively, you could get the booked train and it runs smoothly to London and you lose no time at all, but at the same time run the risk of having the train cancelled and having to get the next replacement bus in the preceding 2 hours.  What will you do?

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You are on your way to university and have booked your train to London. You have been alerted that there maybe major delays on the train line which could lead to cancellation of the train, and it is suggested to get a replacement bus. The replacement bus however takes 2 hours longer than the original train booked to get you to your destination but is leaving at the scheduled time. Alternatively, you could get the booked train and it runs smoothly to London and you lose no time at all, but at the same time run the risk of having the train cancelled and having to get the next replacement bus in the preceding 2 hours.  What will you do?

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A)      A 50% chance of losing no time, and a 50% chance of losing 4 hours

B)      A 100% chance of losing 2 hours

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You want to buy a flight to France last minute. In company A, there is a 95% chance that it will take 30 minutes and a 5% chance it will take 2 hours, due to bad weather conditions. In company B, because it takes a different route which avoids the bad weather conditions, it will take an hour for sure. As it is last minute and you really want to visit your French chums, you need to decide swiftly! Which company would you pick?

Company A: 95% chance of taking 30 minutes and a 5% chance of taking 2 hours

Company B: an hour for certain

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You want to go to the concert with you friends and you were asked to get tickets for everyone. You can go to the ticket office and buy them there which will take you 10 minutes. Alternatively, you can ask your friend to do it for you and spend no time at all with a 95% chance that your friend will agree to help you, but there is a 5% chance that your friend will not help you and you have to go to a public library which will take you 2 hours and do it there.

What will you do:

1.     Go get the tickets from the ticket office that will take you 10 minutes.

2.     Ask your frond to help with a 95% chance not to spend any time and a 5% chance to spend 2 hours getting to the library and looking for tickets.

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You are planning your journey home after visiting your family for reading week. Current rail strikes and maintenance are causing delays which are difficult to predict accurately. Your friend has offered to drive you home, however the car journey would take you 8 hours due to traffic. You want to avoid inconveniencing your generous friend if possible. There are two potential trains you could take and have to decide between those or the car journey. The first train would take 3.5 hours to reach your destination if no delays occur (saving you 4.5 hours compared to the car), however there is a chance that a strike delay could extend the journey to 10.5 hours. The other train would take 5 hours given no delays, however track maintenance might cause the journey to be 6 hours. To avoid the inconvenient drive for your friend, Which train do you decide to take:

A- train 1 with a 50% chance to lose 2.5 hours and a 50% chance to save 4.5 hours compared to the car journey

B- train 2 with a 50% chance to lose 1 hour and a 50% chance to save 3 hours compared to the car journey.

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You are waiting in a doctors office for a last minute appointment. The two doctors available today both have other appointments for the day. You are informed that Dr. Williams may be able to see you right away, however, there is the possibility that his current patient will need a important procedure immediately, meaning that he cannot see you for another four fours. On the other hand, Dr. Bak is currently with a patient whose procedure will be over in exactly two hours. The office needs you to indicate which doctor you wish to see to add you to their waiting list. Do you:

A- ask to see Dr. Williams giving you a 50% chance of no wait time, and a 50% chance of waiting 4 hours

B- ask to see Dr. Bak giving you a 2 hour wait time for sure.

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Imagine you have just finished a road trip that has taken you six hours away from your home. You embarked on the road trip with your friend Alice, however her car has broken down and it will take two hours for it to be repaired, extending the journey home to eight hours. You are considering a alternative way home. A train service is available which could get you home in only four hours, however maintenance track work may delay the train to eight hours, which is the same as if you waited for the car repair. Alternatively, you could take a bus service which would take you only six hours to reach home. Would you rather:

1. Take the train service giving you a 50% chance of not saving any time, or a 50% chance of saving you four hours

2. Take the bus service, saving you two hours for sure.

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Add your ideas here for stimuli for our study

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Add your ideas here for stimuli for our study

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Please post your choices about time from your 'homework' here (Worksheet 2, Activity 2B). Click the '+' icon or double-click on the 'board', then add text and/or upload a document. If it is the work of more than one person, please tell us how many people worked on creating your choices about time.
Tim & Mike

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5PAHPGEN Choices Week 03 Practicals 2018-19 Worksheet 02