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“Biography.” Mike Kelly for Congress, 2018, www.mikekellyforcongress.com/biography/.
“Census Demographics Interactive Maps .” Census Demographics, United States Census Bureau, 2018, datamapper.geo.census.gov/map.html.
Cohn, Nate, et al. “The New Pennsylvania Congressional Map, District by District.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 19 Feb. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/19/upshot/pennsylvania-new-house-districts-gerrymandering.html.
DataDhrumil. “Pennsylvania 16th District U.S. House Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, 5 Nov. 2018, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/pennsylvania/16/.
Flowers, Kevin. “Big Money Race for Congress.” GoErie.com, Gate House Media, 21 Oct. 2018, www.goerie.com/news/20181021/big-money-race-for-congress.
“Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District.” Ballotpedia, 2018, ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_16th_Congressional_District.
“Pennsylvania District 16 2018 Race.” OpenSecrets, Center for Responsive Politics, 2018, www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=PA16.
“Rep. Mike Kelly - Campaign Finance Summary.” OpenSecrets, Center for Responsive Politics, 2018, www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00031647.
Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates Program, and Census Bureau. “Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) Main Page.” Census.gov, United States Census Bureau, www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/saipe/saipe.html?s_appName=saipe&map_yearSelector=2016&map_geoSelector=aa_c.
Sienna College. “Midterm Election Poll: Pennsylvania's 16th District, Kelly vs. DiNicola.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 5 Oct. 2018, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-pa16-1.html.

The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, 2018, votesmart.org/candidate/271/ron-dinicola?type=R.
“The Voter's Self Defense System.” Vote Smart, 2018, votesmart.org/candidate/119463/mike-kelly-jr?type=R%2CE%2CE%2CE.
Wideeyecreative. “About.” Ron DiNicola, Ron DiNicola for Congress, 2018, dinicolaforcongress.com/about/.

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The special elections in the past 2 years have proven that no seat in congress is a " Safe bet" for the GOP. The PA 16th district in the commonwealth is an example of this. While most data about demographics and past elections since 2010 would tell a person that there is no way on Earth a democrat could win, polls on the ground plus sheer amount of money spent in these races tell a different story. A combination of redistricting and new energy in the Democratic Party has created battlegrounds where none existed before this election cycle. There is also a change in tactics used by the campaigns. It can be observed that the Republicans are using more attack based marketing while the Democrats are using specific and issue based marketing. Therefore, I cannot make an unbiased prediction in this election. The only thing certain in this midterm election is that nothing is.

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The local sources in the Pittsburgh area have stated the election has come down to the wire. Trump has firmly thrown his support behind Kelly. DiNicola has widespread Union support,and support from various Human Rights and pro choice organizations, while Kelly has the endorsement of various white collar associations and has received poor rating from aforementioned groups. Kelly also has a 100% rating from the NRA vs DiNicola's 33%A quick look on Open Secrets reveals that several million dollars have been spent on this race alone.

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In the past month, several polls have been conducted to try to feel out how this election will go. A New York Times poll on October 6, stated that among the 600 people polled in the area, 50% were for Kelly, 42% for DiNicola and 8% undecided, with a 5 point margin of error. Another poll conducted recently by a local company gave DiNicola the edge with the same margin of error.

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The area is considered middle class with the median income being around $50,000. The area is predominately white, and the median age is late 30s to mid 40s. (All data comes from census Bureau

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The incumbent Republican, career politician out of Butler County

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The democrat running, former Marine and lawyer out of Erie Pa

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The three candidates for this election are: Mike Kelly ( incumbent Republican), Ronald DiNicola ( Democrat), and Elbert Beeman (Libertarian party)