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41 Rückkopplungseffekte mit Auswirkungen auf das Klimasystem

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41 Rückkopplungseffekte mit Auswirkungen auf das Klimasystem

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Bericht (engl.) des Fachmagazins One Earth.
Mögliche Beispiele zur Analyse komplexer Mensch-Umwelt-Interaktionen im Geosystem.
Geeignet zur systematischen Arbeit mithilfe der Basiskonzepte der Geographie.

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As we increasingly understand climate change as a series of disasters in the short term and a major threat in the longer term, many governmental jurisdictions and world scientists have declared a climate emergency.

In addition, nearly all countries have signed on to the Paris Accord, which calls for limiting warming to 2°C, and ideally 1.5°C. One of the main factors making climate change especially dangerous is the risk of amplifying climatic feedback loops. An amplifying, or positive, feedback on global warming is a process whereby an initial change that causes warming brings about another change that results in even more warming ( Figure 1). Thus, it amplifies the effects of climate forcings-outside influences on the climate system such as changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. In part because of positive climate feedbacks, a very rapid drawdown in emissions will be required to limit future warming.

Ultimately, even relatively modest warming is expected to increase the risk that various climatic tipping points will be crossed-causing large changes in the future state of Earth's climate system, thereby adding further amplifying feedbacks.

Despite major recent progress in incorporating a host of interacting feedbacks,

climate models may still be underestimating the acceleration in global temperature change that a large and interrelated set of amplifying feedback loops and tipping points could cause. In a likely short-term scenario, our lack of dramatic emission reductions could result in a future with ongoing and intensifying climate impacts. In the worst case long-term scenario, interactions among feedback loops could result in an irreversible drift away from the current state of Earth's climate to a state that threatens habitability for humans and other life forms.

In any case, the accuracy of climate models is of vital importance since they guide climate mitigation efforts by informing policymakers about the expected effects of anthropogenic emissions.

Here, we discuss feedback loops in the context of climate science, present an extensive list of diverse feedbacks, and consider implications for climate research and policy.

Feedback loops and the remaining carbon budget

The remaining carbon budget is defined as the permitted amount of future anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions that are consistent with a given climate target and provides a direct link between climate science and climate policy, as it can guide emissions targets., It is closely related to the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon (TCRE), which characterizes the relationship between cumulative CO 2 emissions from the present day and warming due to CO 2 emissions relative to preindustrial levels. Although highly uncertain, the remaining carbon budget associated with 1.5°C warming was recently estimated to be 260 Gt CO 2 relative to the start of 2023, which could be exhausted in just 6.5 years

If their combined effects are underestimated, the additional climate feedbacks could further reduce the remaining carbon budget.

Positive climate feedback loops lead to greater warming per unit of CO 2 emitted, thereby substantially increasing the TCRE and reducing the remaining carbon budget. However, it is often difficult to accurately model Earth system feedbacks. A recent major TCRE assessment used expert judgment to account for limited coverage of Earth system components (e.g., certain biological feedbacks), arriving at a relatively wide "likely" interval of 1.0°C-2.3°C per 1,000 Gt C. Despite the clear importance of understanding positive feedbacks, the scientific understanding of the unrepresented Earth system positive feedbacks has been characterized as "very low." Thus, better characterization of climate feedback loops is necessary to more accurately estimate the remaining carbon budget.

Many risky feedbacks

Here, we present, to the best of our knowledge, the most extensive list available of climate feedback loops ( Tables 1, S1, S2, and Figure S1). In total, we have identified 41 biogeophysical feedback loops (20 physical and 21 biological), including 27 positive (reinforcing) feedback loops, 7 negative (balancing) feedback loops, and 7 uncertain feedback loops ( Tables 1 and S1). We obtained feedback strengths for 17 of these loops, including 13 strengths in standard units of W/m 2/K ( Table S1 and Figure S2). Physical feedback loops involve primarily abiotic systems. For example, warming in the Arctic leads to melting sea ice, which leads to further warming because water has lower albedo (reflectance) than ice ( Figure S3). In contrast, biological loops involve the biosphere in some way. For instance, increasing temperatures lead to permafrost thawing, which produces CO 2 and methane (CH 4) emissions, which in turn leads to further increasing temperatures, and so on ( Figure S3). Note that biological loops can also involve physical components. Because some loops were discovered relatively recently, we expect additional feedback loops to be described in the near future, especially in the biological category where many complex interactions are possible. Given that most of the feedback loops we identified are positive, it seems likely that many unknown feedbacks are also positive. Collectively, these additional loops could mean that the remaining carbon budget has been overestimated, in which case proposed mitigation pathways may be inadequate and net zero (human) emissions may need to be achieved more quickly than anticipated. While climate feedbacks, the TCRE, and carbon budgets have been partially constrained using historical and paleo-climate data, this does not diminish the importance of further research. In particular, we are now seeing greenhouse gas levels that have not occurred in several million years, and we lack the paleo data to understand carbon-climate and social feedbacks on a much warmer and more carbon-rich planet.

Greenhouse gas emissions have been growing rapidly during the last century, despite several decades of warnings from scientists that emissions must be greatly reduced. Moreover, because climate feedbacks can interact with each other and exhibit temperature dependence

and non-linearities, currently weak feedbacks have the potential to become stronger, following warming driven by other feedback loops. In a grim scenario, interacting feedback loops could result in a sequence of climate tipping points being exceeded,,

producing "climate cascades," whereby the net effect of reinforcing feedbacks is greater than the sum of their individual effects under current conditions.

Some feedback loops may be associated with key tipping points ( Tables 1 and S1) that could profoundly disrupt the global climate system and biosphere once critical thresholds are crossed. Although it has been argued that most of these tipping points are not expected to drive large positive feedbacks, there is deep uncertainty associated with unlikely but extreme feedbacks and tipping points. Specific concerns include slowing of ocean circulation and the large-scale loss of ice sheets, permafrost, and forests.

In the worst case, if positive feedbacks are sufficiently strong, this could result in tragic climate change outside the control of humans.

Based on our compilation of numerous and potentially risky climate warming feedback loops, we call for immediate concurrent changes to both (1) climate research and (2) climate policy, which should strategically inform and guide each other.

Climate research

While we applaud the significant accomplishments of feedback researchers to date, we believe an immediate and massive international mobilization must occur to advance climate science with an increase in research priorities and funding to quickly get the impacts and interactions of feedbacks better assessed in the context of the remaining carbon budget. We call for a faster transition toward integrated Earth system science because the climate system can only be understood by integrating the functioning and state of all Earth system interactions.

For example, an Earth system science approach can provide information on both mitigation pathways that minimize risks associated with climate feedbacks and the societal transformations needed to pursue these trajectories. This will give policymakers better and more usable scientific information, which is needed to manage risks associated with the climate emergency.

More research is needed to incorporate the mechanisms and processes of diverse feedback loops into climate models, especially biological feedback loops. These have received comparatively little attention and are often grouped together as "unrepresented feedback mechanisms.",, Therefore, we propose that feedback loops and tipping points as well as their possible combined severe consequences (e.g., potential runaway dynamics) receive more attention, for example, as an IPCC special report. Biological feedback loops involving forest dieback, loss of soil carbon, thawing permafrost, drying and smoldering peatlands, and the changing ocean biological pump are highly uncertain and may be large. Developing a better understanding of these and other feedbacks will require large-scale funding and collaboration to coordinate data collection and synthesis efforts.

As part of an Earth system approach, more research is also needed to identify, quantify, and integrate the myriad of human feedbacks ( Table S2), which is complicated by the inherent uncertainty in the social system. Because they involve complex social and economic systems, it is important that analyses of human feedbacks be conducted in an interdisciplinary fashion, including researchers from the social sciences in all stages of the process. Overall, insight into the complex trajectories that tie physical, biological, and social feedbacks together may be gained through various methods. Promising approaches include simulations that can reflect the behavior of complex adaptive systems and artificial intelligence-based network analysis of the matrix of feedback loop interactions. Such insights will likely be needed to make progress on two major challenges facing Earth system science: assessing the stability and resiliency of the Earth system and fully integrating biophysical and human dynamics.

Climate policy

Individual countries are not even close to being on track to achieve the Paris emissions reduction pledges that were not enough to meet the insufficient Paris 2.0°C upper limit warming target and are now distressingly inadequate to meet the later 1.5°C warming limit. Worse still, researchers have recently raised the likely minimum equilibrium warming associated with atmospheric CO 2 doubling from 1.5°C (Stocker et al.) to a more devastating 2.5°C (IPCC). With these troubling developments in mind, we make two arguments for immediate and massive reductions in emissions. First, we suggest that further small increases in short-term warming are a big risk, considering the suffering that we are already experiencing from climate disasters of "unprecedented" wildfires, intense storms, coastal flooding, permafrost thaw, and extreme weather that have occurred with just 1.1°C to 1.2°C global average warming. Second, as part of a longer timeline, positive feedback loops and tipping points may pose a major threat. Given the potential for catastrophic climate change and the lack of complete scientific understanding to date, policymakers should strongly consider the potentially dangerous effects of feedback loops, tipping points, and climate cascades, even if all desired scientific data are not available at this time.

Transformative and socially just changes in global energy and transportation, short-lived air pollution, food production, nature preservation, and the international economy, together with population policies based on education and equality, are required to address this immense problem in both the short and the long term. Many of these changes will require significant time, research, and political support to fully carry out. However, reductions in warming due to mitigating methane and other short-lived pollutant emissions can be achieved rapidly. Equitable policies and funding are also needed to support climate adaptations in less wealthy regions where knock-on effects of feedbacks or secondary feedback loop effects are particularly dangerous.

The remaining carbon budget is rapidly shrinking and waiting until 2050 to achieve net-zero carbon emissions might be far too late. The gap between projected emissions (assuming 2030 mitigation pledges are met) and emissions consistent with 1.5°C is very large, and time is running out to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Specifically, the gap is roughly 23 Gt CO 2 e per year in 2030 for 1.5°C. Therefore, shortened timelines for carbon neutrality (before 2050), and more ambitious emissions drawdown with near-term requirements should be swiftly implemented as a response to this emissions gap. Large natural carbon sinks are also critical, but they must be established strategically with relevant biological feedback loops in mind.

The first step in curbing the near-term climate impacts and minimizing the risk of an eventual catastrophic outcome is for us to expand our awareness of the severity of our predicament. Thus, we have described an extensive set of potentially harmful feedback loops to increase our understanding, justify a more serious response, and motivate work into less probable but dangerously underexplored scenarios.

It is too late to fully prevent the pain of climate change as severe impacts are already being felt, but if we can have a much better understanding of feedback loops and make the needed transformative changes soon while prioritizing basic human needs, there might still be time to limit the harm. Even if it turns out that feedbacks are already sufficiently characterized, these changes will provide enormous benefits to human well-being and the entire biosphere. Conversely, if the worst-case risks posed by feedback loops and tipping points have been underestimated, the future of a hospitable planet Earth may be at stake.

Experimental procedures

Resource availability

Lead contact

Further information and requests should be directed to and will be fulfilled by the co-lead contacts, Christopher Wolf ([email protected]) and William Ripple ([email protected]).

Materials availability

This study did not generate new unique materials.

Summary of experimental procedures

Here, we provide a summary of the experimental procedures used to construct the tables of feedback loops ( Table 1 and S1). Please see the Supplemental Experimental Procedure section for more detail, including limitations.

We compiled an initial set of climate feedback loops by performing a literature review using computerized searches. We considered standard research articles and also review papers dealing with feedback loops. We also examined references cited by these papers.

We grouped the feedback loops into three general categories: Physical (abiotic), Biological, and Human, and we identified feedback loop "types," which correspond to subcategories.

Because of the complexity of social systems, the human feedback loops may be speculative in nature and difficult to quantify. So, we present these possible feedback loops separately from the physical and biological loops. These human loops are intended as examples only, and this list is not intended to be exhaustive.

We only considered feedbacks to global temperature, excluding internal feedbacks. For each climate feedback loop, we identified two processes: the "effect of climate change" and the "effect on climate change." For example, warming in the Arctic causes ice to melt (effect of climate change) and melting ice in turn leads to further warming by decreasing albedo (effect on climate change). We also categorized each loop as positive, negative, or uncertain direction. Lastly, we determined estimates of feedback loop strengths where possible. Feedback strengths are quantified in a number of ways, although units of W/m 2/K are standard. When available, we included uncertainty estimates associated with strengths (e.g., standard errors).

Although each feedback loop differs from the others in either the "effect of climate change," or the "effect on climate change," there may be overlaps among some groups of feedback loops. Given that these feedback loops can involve many complex and interacting systems, we viewed some degree of overlap as unavoidable. We used footnotes to indicate occurrences of partial overlap (see Table S1). The strength estimates are generally separate and additive, except in cases of overlapping feedback loops. In our feedback loops tables, we included loops that vary in strength over time, many of which could eventually weaken. Likely examples include permafrost (limited capacity to emit greenhouse gases), sea ice (eventually, there may be no sea ice), and forest dieback (eventually, large forested areas could be fully converted to other ecosystem types, possibly halting this process).

The focus of our table is on feedback loops. However, climate tipping elements and tipping points are related concepts that are of major importance to the Earth system. Therefore, we identified the feedback loops in our table that might involve tipping elements.

After constructing the preliminary tables of feedback loops, we then had them reviewed by more than twenty climate feedback experts (see main paper acknowledgments section). These experts were typically authors of feedback loop papers that we cited. We invited them to propose modifications to our tables of feedback loops, such as adding or removing loops, improving loop descriptions, or proposing additional references to cite.

Acknowledgments

We thank the following climate feedback specialists for reviewing an early draft of our feedback loops Table 1, S1, and S2: Craig Allen, Bojana Bajzelj, Josep Canadell, Thomas Crowther, Joshua Dean, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Lee Kump, Michael E. Mann, Kate Marvel, Nick Obradovich, Frank Pattyn, Francesco S. R. Pausata, David Romps, Christina Schädel, Ted Schuur, and Detlef van Vuuren. Contributing reviewers of a draft of this paper include Susan Christie, Thomas H. DeLuca, Piers Forster, Chris Huntingford, Charles Koven, Karen Shell, and Steven Sherwood. Partial funding for the project was provided by Roger Worthington.

Supplemental information

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Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate action

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Many feedback loops significantly increase warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. However, not all of these feedbacks are fully accounted for in climate models. Thus, associated mitigation pathways could fail to sufficiently limit temperatures. A targeted expansion of research and an accelerated reduction of emissions are needed to minimize risks.

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Hoch anschauliche, interaktive Projektion von CO2-Emissionen auf die räumlichen Ursprünge ihres Ausstoßes.

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GRACED - Global gRidded dAily CO2 Emissions Dataset

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Here our team presents for the first time the near-real-time Global Gridded Daily CO2 Emissions Dataset (GRACED) from fossil fuel and cement production with a global spatial resolution of 0.1° by 0.1° and a temporal resolution of 1 day.

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Illustrated Everyday Stories of Climate Change (engl.)

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Illustrated Everyday Stories of Climate Change (engl.)

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Auf wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnissen beruhende kurze fiktionale Geschichten (engl.) über von der Klimakrise betroffene Menschen und ihre Wege der Adaption. Beispiele aus Bangladesch, Puerto Rico, Barbuda, Bolivien und Südafrika.

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When we talk about climate change, we often use abstract ideas such as, 'the planet is warming' or 'rainfall is becoming more unpredictable.' But, how do these changes impact the daily lives of 'ordinary' families across the world?

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Climate Change explained in short clips (engl.)

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Climate Change explained in short clips (engl.)

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In this series of short films for secondary schools, BBC reporter Ade Adepitan travels to places on the frontline of climate change to see the damage caused and how we can fight it.
Ade scours the globe for the natural and technological fixes that can help us slow climate change and adapt to the changes already taking place.

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In this series of short films for secondary schools, Ade Adepitan travels to places on the frontline of climate change to see the damage caused and how we can fight it.
Ade scours the globe for the natural and technological fixes that can help us slow climate change and adapt to the changes already taking place.

These clips are suitable for teaching KS3 and KS4 / GCSE geography in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and National 4/5 in Scotland.

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Geography KS3 / GCSE: Climate Change - Ade on the Frontline

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In this series of short films for secondary schools, Ade Adepitan travels to places on the frontline of climate change to see the damage caused and how we can fight it.

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Das Tool veranschaulicht, was die Stadtbevölkerung davon hat, wenn ihre Stadt stärker begrünt wird – oder auch, wie hoch der Verlust ist, wenn Stadtgrün verloren geht. Für 23 deutsche Großstädte können eine Erhöhung oder auch eine Reduzierung des Stadtgrüns simuliert und der Wert dieser Veränderungen in Euro ausgedrückt werden: Grünflächen, Straßenbäume, naturnah bewirtschaftete Anteile innerhalb von Grünflächen, begrünte Rad- und Fußwege und Gründächer. Es können Szenarien analysiert werden, bei denen frei ausgewählt werden kann, welche Veränderungen über alle fünf Typen simuliert werden sollen.
Mit dem Stadtgrün-Bewertungstool werden fünf Ökosystemleistungen städtischen Grüns quantifiziert und monetär bewertet:
Wasserretention,

Luftreinhaltung,

Kohlenstoffregulation,

Temperaturregulation, sowie

kulturelle Ökosystemleistungen.

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Podcast zum Thema globale Lieferketten im Umbruch

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Podcast zum Thema globale Lieferketten im Umbruch

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Zu möglichen Umbrüchen in der weltweiten Vernetzung der Güter- und Warenströme vor dem Hintergrund der Corona-Krise, der Suez-Kanal-Blockade und des Ukraine-Krieges.

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...für die Argumentationswippe

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Segelschiffe als Lösung im globalen Warenverkehr?

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Segelschiffe als Lösung im globalen Warenverkehr?

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Mögliche Beispielgeschichte für einen problemlösungsorientierten Unterrichtsansatz?

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Alkmaarse rederij koopt zeilschip voor duurzaam transport: “We moeten ergens beginnen”

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De Alkmaarse rederij EcoClipper heeft haar eerste zeilschip gekocht om op een duurzame wijze goederen de wereld over te transporteren. Het zeilschip De Tukker is het begin van wat een hele vloot moet worden, vertelt EcoClipper-oprichter Jorne Langelaan aan NH Nieuws.

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Klimakrise: Folgen für afrikanische Regionen an anschaulichen Beispielen

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Klimakrise: Folgen für afrikanische Regionen an anschaulichen Beispielen

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Interaktive lebendige Karte zur Externalisierung der Folgen wirtschaftlichen Handelns im globalen Norden

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Das war genau eine der Fragen, mit der sich die UN-Klimawandel-Konferenz „COP 2021" in Glasgow beschäftigte. Doch schon die Voraussetzungen der Konferenz zeigen, dass die historische Verantwortung für den Klimawandel weitgehend ausgeblendet werden. Die afrikanischen Staaten sind weitgehend unterrepräsentiert, die Verursacher feilschen um eigene Vormachtstellungen. Und viele Verhandler*innen aus afrikanischen Ländern konnten nicht einmal anreisen, manche wegen Corona-Beschränkungen, manche wegen Visumsproblemen.

Mit 23 gegen die Verdrängung

Eine, die trotzdem da war, ist Lina Yassin. Die 23-Jährige ist Mitglied der sudanesischen Delegation. Als Delegierte ihres Heimatlandes saß sie an den Tischen, verhandelte tagelang, versuchte, sich und ihrem Land Gehör zu verschaffen. Gar nicht so leicht als Vertreterin eines der ärmsten Länder.

Auf Fotos sieht man die 23-Jährige diskutieren, erklären, verhandeln. Auf einem wirkt es, als würde sie in der Menge untergehen: Fast wie das Land, das sie vertritt.

Der Sudan und der Südsudan können nichts für die immer häufigeren Fluten, Kenia und Madagaskar nichts für die Dürren. Die Treibhausgase entstehen auf anderen Teilen der Welt. 20 wohlhabende Länder verursachen 80 Prozent davon.

„Man verliert das Vertrauen"

Das sagt Yassin im Nachgang über die COP. Sie kennt die Konferenz, nimmt seit mehreren Jahren an ihr teil. Als sie das sagt, klingt sie zugleich energisch und desillusioniert. Letzteres auch, weil die wohlhabenden Staaten, die sogenannten „entwickelten Länder", schon am ersten Tag einen Vertrauensbruch begingen: 2009 hatten sie versprochen, den Entwicklungsländern jährlich mehr Geld bereitzustellen. Geld, damit sie die Klimawandel-Folgen besser abfedern können. Jedes Jahr sollte ab 2020 hundert Milliarden fließen. So der Plan.

Gleich zu Beginn der COP hieß es dann aber: Klappt nicht. Die reichen Staaten geben sich nun drei weitere Jahre Zeit. Ab 2023 soll jährlich die volle Summe fließen. Für viele der ärmeren Länder ist das eine herbe Enttäuschung, erzählt Yassin am Telefon.

Wieviel Geld reiche Staaten geben, um Klimawandel-Folgen besser zu verkraften

Die Grafik zeigt, wie viele Milliarden US-Dollar seit 2015 jährlich von entwickelten Ländern an Entwicklungsländer fließen, um Klimawandel-Folgen abzufedern („Climate Finance"). Der Wert für 2023 ist eine Prognose.

Schlimmer eigentlich: Dadurch sei der Eindruck entstanden, man könne sich in der Klimakrise nicht auf die verlassen, die die Möglichkeit hätten, etwas zu ändern. „Entwickelte Länder halten ihre Versprechen nicht" - immer wieder habe sie diesen Satz an den Verhandlungstischen und auf den Fluren gehört.

Das hat die Verhandlungen überschattet, sagt die Aktivistin, die für sudanesische Zeitungen schreibt, für das Projekt „Climate Tracker" arbeitet und im britischen Oxford ihr Masterstudium absolviert. Die reichen Länder haben dieses Versprechen nicht gehalten, wieso also sollten man ihnen in Zukunft vertrauen? Jetzt, sagt Yassin, sei es umso wichtiger, genau zu beobachten, ob die Beschlüsse der diesjährigen COP tatsächlich umgesetzt werden. Sie wird es tun. Auf dem Spiel steht ihre Zukunft.

Afrika verbieten, Emissionen auszustoßen?

Doch die ärmeren Länder werden gebraucht, um die Klimakrise zu beenden - auch vom globalen Norden. Der Klimawandel birgt Stoff für neue internationale Konflikte. Viele aufstrebende afrikanische Länder könnten allerdings erst jetzt beginnen, Geld mit ihren Bodenschätzen zu verdienen, sagte etwa der senegalesische Präsident Macky Sall kürzlich. Investitionen in den fossilen Gassektor zu reduzieren, wäre „ein tödlicher Schlag" für die Wirtschaft seiner Landes. Fossile Brennstoffe schädigen aber das Klima. Soll der potenzielle Wohlstand im Boden bleiben?

Ein Dilemma. Afrikanische Staaten daran zu hindern, zum Beispiel Rohöl abzubauen und damit ihre Wirtschaft zu stärken, sei „definitiv nicht fair", sagt auch Yassin. „Man kann doch Entwicklungsländern nicht einfach verbieten, Emissionen auszustoßen!" Sie fordert Ersatzzahlungen für arme Länder, die freiwillig auf den Abbau klimaschädlicher Rohstoffe verzichten - anders gehe es nicht.

Darauf gehen reichen Staaten bisher kaum ein. Nicht einmal die historische Verantwortung für den Klimawandel wird prominent angesprochen, sagt Yassin. In den Verhandlungen verhielten sie sich defensiv. „Sie sollten nicht immer Ideen und Vorschläge zurückdrängen, nicht immer versuchen, weniger Geld zahlen zu müssen oder weniger Versprechen einhalten zu müssen."

Das frustriert sie am meisten: die Fruchtlosigkeit der Verhandlungen, ihre Langsamkeit. Die stehe im Kontrast zur Dringlichkeit der Situation. „Man sitzt da und diskutiert stundenlang einen Paragrafen, einen Satz, ein Wort." Nach einer kurzen Pause sagt sie noch: „Es geht hier doch nicht einfach um Politik. Es geht um Länder, die sterben."
Ob sie an der nächsten COP überhaupt teilnehmen kann, weiß sie nicht. Parallel zur Konferenz putschte sich im Sudan das Militär an die Macht. Yassin war plötzlich Delegierte einer Regierung, die nicht mehr existiert.
Anmerkung (24.1.): In der ursprünglichen Version des Textes hieß es, eine deutsche Person würde „fast das Zehnfache" der CO2-Emissionen pro Kopf einer Person in der DR Kongo verursachen. Das war falsch - es sind mehr als 250-mal so viele Emissionen pro Kopf in 2020. Wir haben den Fehler korrigiert.
Klimaaktivistinnen in Afrika

Das Team

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Fragen der Verantwortung: Wer das Klima am meisten schädigt - und wer die Folgen trägt

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Hierzulande scheinen die Folgen des Klimawandels noch abstrakt. Auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent ist das anders - obwohl die Menschen dort am wenigsten dazu beitragen. Eine Gegenüberstellung.

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Gentrifizierung: Der Tag an dem die Schanze gekippt ist

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Gentrifizierung: Der Tag an dem die Schanze gekippt ist

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Exemplarische Geschichte der Gentrifizierung der Hamburger Sternschanze

Erste Idee zur Verwendung im Unterricht:
SuS verlebendigen das Phasenmodell der G. durch geeignete Textstellen und Fotos aus dem Feature.

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07.07.2018 · Vom Arbeiter- zum Künstler- zum Szene-Quartier: Hamburgs Schanzenviertel durchlebt einen brutalen Wandel.

Der Tag, an dem das Schanzenviertel gekippt ist, war der Tag, an dem Waagen Schmitt seine Filiale geschlossen hat.

Wer den Wandel in Hamburgs politisch sensibelstem Viertel verstehen will, der sollte Peter Haß treffen. Der 70 Jahre alte ehemalige Buchhändler ist der Fleisch gewordene alternative Lebensentwurf. Seit 1977 lebt und arbeitet er in der „Schanze", wie die Straßenzüge zwischen Stresemannstraße und der S-Bahn-Station Sternschanze genannt werden. Als Haß mit Gleichgesinnten 1979 die noch heute bestehende Buchhandlung im Schanzenviertel gründete, war Idealismus ein Treiber: Es sollte endlich einen guten Kinderbuchladen in Hamburg geben, auch pädagogisches Spielzeug sollte verkauft werden. Ein Kollektiv führt das Geschäft, jeder ist ein Jahr lang Gesellschafter, acht Wochen Urlaub, 30-Stunden-Woche. Vor einigen Jahren bemerkte Haß, dass seine Rentenbezüge dadurch recht knapp sind.

Erst seit 2008 gibt es überhaupt einen Stadtteil Sternschanze, aber das Schanzenviertel ist schon lange heiß, Standort der besetzten Roten Flora, Schauplatz der gewalttätigen G20-Proteste vor einem Jahr, ehemals das größte deutsche Sanierungsgebiet, seit Jahren eines der Paradebeispiele für die sich rasant drehende Gentrifizierung, die einhergeht mit einer Entfremdung und einem sukzessiven Wegzug der alteingesessenen, einkommensschwächeren Bevölkerung.

Bevor Peter Haß in die Schanze zog, war das Gebiet um das Schulterblatt, heute die Lebensader des Viertels, eine No-Go-Area. Wenn er mit seinen Eltern zu Hamburgs größtem Jahrmarkt wollte, dem Dom, sagt Haß, „waren wir froh, wenn wir durch das dunkle Viertel durch waren". Sieben Schlachtereien gab es hier damals. Viele Arbeiter waren auf dem nahen Schlachthofgelände beschäftigt, beim Stifthersteller Montblanc oder bei der Gewürzfirma Hermann Laue. Beide zogen in den achtziger Jahren weg und mit ihnen nach und nach viele Arbeiter.

Linke Studenten eroberten das Viertel als erste für sich. Der Wohnraum war günstig, geheizt wurde vielfach mit Kohleöfen, oft teilten sich zwei Mietparteien die Wohnung. Die Stadt war zwar Eigentümer vieler Gebäude, aber vernachlässigte sie. In den Stadtteilen Ottensen und Altona-Altstadt hatte der Senat Häuser aufgekauft, um eines Tages eine Stadtautobahn errichten zu können. Im Schanzen- und im angrenzenden Karolinenviertel wollte die Regierung des Stadtstaats Flächen freihalten, falls es irgendwann zur Fusion der Nordstaaten käme und man ein Regierungsviertel brauche. Investitionen: Fehlanzeige. Die Stadt ließ Menschen einziehen, die anderswo keine Wohnung fanden: Migranten, Alleinerziehende.

In Peter Haß' Buchhandlung liegt ein Bildband aus, durch den man sich in die alte Zeit zurückversetzen kann. Die Bilder zeigen die Schanze im Jahr 1980. Unvorbereiteten Betrachtern erscheinen die Aufnahmen des Fotografen Thomas Henning wie Dokumente der sechziger Jahre. Vieles wirkt ranzig und unentwickelt, türkische Familien mit bunten Kleidern posieren, die Fleischtheken erinnern an den alten Charakter des Arbeiterviertels, erste Graffiti sind zu sehen. Heute sind die Hauswände übersät, es gehört zur Kulisse des urbanen Schicks.

Der Tag, an dem das Schanzenviertel gekippt ist, war der Tag, an dem die Rote Flora besetzt wurde.

Die Studenten und Sympathisanten der Hausbesetzer-Szene an der Hafenstraße richteten sich allmählich in der Schanze ein. Haß wird in den achtziger Jahren Mitglied einer Bürgerinitiative, die den Ausverkauf verhindern und das Viertel bewohnbarer machen will durch Spielplätze und kulturelle Aktivitäten. „Das einzige, was wir erreicht haben, ist, dass der Sternschanzenpark nicht nur von den Hotelgästen des Mövenpick-Hotels genutzt werden kann", sagt er. „Wir haben uns von der Stadt immer verlassen gefühlt."

Die heftigste Auseinandersetzung gab es darüber, ob das seit Mitte der siebziger Jahre ungenutzte Flora-Theater als Musicalstätte wiederbelebt werden sollte. Die erfolgreichen Proteste gipfelten 1989 in der Besetzung durch Autonome, die fortbesteht und die Nähe zu internationalen Protestbewegungen beim G20-Gipfel erklärt. Schon damals gab es großflächige Graffiti über politische Missstände in der Welt. Che Guevara und der amerikanische Bürgerrechtler Mumia Abu-Jamal sind Ikonen des Viertels.

„Wir haben uns von der Stadt immer verlassen gefühlt."

Durch die Besetzung wurden aber viele erst auf die Schanze aufmerksam. Die Szene sieht sich heute selbstkritisch als Treiber der Gentrifizierung. Gleichzeitig ist der Zustand des Immobilienbestands erschreckend. In der Zeit, in der die Flora zur Roten Flora wurde, gründete die Stadt die Steg, die Stadterneuerungs- und Stadtentwicklungsgesellschaft. Im Viertel wurde sie kritisch beäugt. „Steg räumt, Senat befriedigt" liest man auf Protestplakaten.

„Das war damals ein sozialer Brennpunkt", sagt Kurt Reinken, der seit 1992 für die Steg arbeitet und seit 2003 mitgeholfen hat, sie zu privatisieren. „Drogen, viele Familien zogen weg. Es war zum Teil schäbig, es gab keine adäquaten Wohnungen." Der Senat hat sich von dem Traum verabschiedet, Hamburg könnte Hauptstadt eines Nordstaats werden, auch die Stadtautobahn durch Altona blieb eine Idee. Nun muss er in kurzer Zeit den Altbaubestand retten. „Die Gebäude wären zehn Jahre später unbewohnbar gewesen", sagt Gerhard Wittke, ebenfalls seit vielen Jahren bei der Steg.

Der Tag, an dem das Schanzenviertel gekippt ist, war der Tag, an dem alle von der Piazza sprachen.

Was war zuerst da, und was kam dann? Kinder erzählten ihren Eltern in den Neunzigern immer häufiger, dass sie im Schanzenviertel waren, es gab Doc-Martens-Läden, Schallplattengeschäfte, schräge Boutiquen. Die Schanze wurde zum Kultviertel, Musiker der Hamburger Schule wohnten hier, nahmen Platten auf. Tocotronic trat das erste Mal in der Roten Flora auf. Die kreative Szene eroberte sich das Schulterblatt.

„Mein Thema war immer: Wie bekommt man Arbeit generiert? Existenzgründung statt ABM", sagt Kurt Reinken und steht von seinem Schreibtisch am Schulterblatt 36 auf. Schräg gegenüber liegt Peter Haß' Buchhandlung. Reinken läuft zwei Straßenzüge weiter. Dort zeigt er auf die alte Rinderschlachthalle. Aus Sanierungsmitteln der Stadt ist hier eine Brücke über die U-Bahn-Trasse ins benachbarte Karoviertel entstanden. Die ehemaligen Sanierungsgebiete, längst beliebte Wohnquartiere, wurden verbunden. Jeden Samstag findet ein Flohmarkt statt, auf der Brache entstanden Räume für Tonstudios, Plattenlabel, das Management des Heavy-Metal-Festivals Wacken. Karostar heißt der Platz. „Die Fläche war frei, es konnte nachverdichtet werden", sagt Reinken. „Und Hamburg konnte nach dem Wegzug von Universal nach Berlin weiter sagen: Wir sind eine Musikstadt."

„In den Neunzigern kamen Boutiquen, Friseure und Kosmetikgeschäfte"

Doch mit der Zeit wurde die Schanze feiner. In der New Economy siedelten sich Internetfirmen in den Gebäuden an, die Montblanc und Hermann Laue verlassen hatten. Kabel New Media war die größte. „In den Neunzigern kamen Boutiquen, Friseure und Kosmetikgeschäfte", sagt Haß. In Artikeln wurde über das In-Viertel berichtet. Reiseführer empfahlen einen Abstecher hierher. Die Gastronomie wurde entlang des Schulterblatts entwickelt - so wie es Protestierer befürchtet hatten, als sie das Musicaltheater bekämpften. Dann fing auch Haß an, vom Schulterblatt als der Piazza zu sprechen. „Irgendwann war der Begriff da." Er beschreibt eine Entfremdung zwischen Bewohnern und Partyvolk. „Jetzt kommt noch der Tourismus dazu. Das Beispiel Barcelona zeigt, dass das Grenzen hat."

Der Tag, an dem das Schanzenviertel gekippt ist, war der Tag, an dem Zardoz am Schulterblatt ausziehen musste.

Anfang des Jahres reichte es vielen Kreativen. Der Plattenladen Zardoz Records, eine von zwei Hamburger Institutionen für Vinylsammler, kündigte an, er werde das Schulterblatt verlassen. Der Vertrag mit dem Eigentümer der Immobilie, einem niederländischen Family Office, lief aus, die Miete sollte drastisch steigen. Weil Zardoz als Vollsortimenter für Musikfreunde ein Anlaufpunkt ist, stellten Kritiker die Schanze als Ort des kulturellen Austauschs in Frage. „Ich war erstaunt über die Rückmeldung", sagt Zardoz-Geschäftsführer André Sorgenfrei. „Leute sagten, dann komme ich nicht mehr in die Schanze. Ein anderer Plattenladen sagte, ich bin doch gerade euretwegen hergekommenen." Die Hausverwaltung Storescouts verwaltet die Immobilie - und will sich nicht dazu äußern.

Zardoz hat am Schulterblatt eine jüngere Geschichte als Peter Haß' Buchladen. Seinen Ursprung hat der Laden in Altona. Im Juni bezog Sorgenfrei einen schmucken neuen Laden im Karoviertel gleich nebenan. „Alle, die herkommen, sagen: Es ist schöner als vorher. Ich bin so erleichtert", sagt er. Der Aufruhr um Zardoz mag also übertrieben gewesen sein. Er zeigt aber, dass die Gentrifizierung auf Gegner stößt, die nicht alles so leicht hinnehmen wie früher. Die kreative Szene fürchtet um ihr Biotop, die Eigentümer melken ihren Immobilienbesitz.

Der Tag, an dem das Schanzenviertel gekippt ist, war der Tag, an dem der vorletzte Gemüsehöker schloss.

Das Biotop von Peter Haß gibt es schon lange nicht mehr. Es ist schwer, den Endpunkt zu bestimmen: Als Waagen Schmitt in der Sternschanze zugemacht hat? Als die Rote Flora besetzt wurde? Als alle nur noch von der Piazza sprachen? Als Zardoz umziehen musste? Peter Haß findet es schwer erträglich, dass von den vielen türkischen Gemüsehökern nur noch einer da ist. Das Geld ist eingezogen in das Kultviertel. „Das ist so ein Paradebeispiel", sagt er und zeigt auf ein Restaurant von Tim Mälzer. „Die Messe kommt immer näher. Das Stück da vorn ist durchgentrifiziert." Er deutet auf Kneipen und einen Weinladen an der Susannenstraße. Neumieten liegen bei 15 oder 16 Euro je Quadratmeter. Die anderen Alternativbetriebe sind längst weg, Haß ist geblieben, weil er sich mit Finanzen auskennt. „Nischen im Kapitalismus sind schwer, man muss mit dem arbeiten, was ist", sagt er. „Aber würde ich heute gefragt, ob ich in Rahlstedt leben will oder in der Schanze, sage ich immer noch: Schanze!"

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Ein Jahr nach dem G-20-Gipfel: Wann ist die Schanze gekippt?

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07.07.2018 · Vom Arbeiter- zum Künstler- zum Szene-Quartier: Hamburgs Schanzenviertel durchlebt einen brutalen Wandel. Der Tag, an dem das Schanzenviertel gekippt ist, war der Tag, an dem Waagen Schmitt seine Filiale geschlossen hat. Wer den Wandel in Hamburgs politisch sensibelstem Viertel verstehen will, der sollte Peter Haß treffen.

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Main Maritime Shipping Routes (update) | Port Economics, Management and Policy

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Port Economics, Management and Policy | A comprehensive analysis of the port industry

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Updated the main maritime shipping routes page to include the Spilhaus projection, which displays all the world's oceans as a single continuous body of water. This page served as background information for an article in the Wall Street Journal last march to explain the Suez Canal blockage.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-consider-alternative-routes-assess-costs-as-suez-canal-blockage-continues-11616693465 Main Maritime Shipping Routes | Port Economics, Management and Policy (porteconomicsmanagement.org)

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Main Maritime Shipping Routes (update) | Port Economics, Management and Policy

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Updated the main maritime shipping routes page to include the Spilhaus projection, which displays all the world's oceans as a single continuous body of water. This page served as background information for an article in the Wall Street Journal last march to explain the Suez Canal blockage.

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Chinas Pläne zur Nutzung der Arktis als Verkehrsweg und Rohstofflager (engl.): https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2021/12/china-build-its-third-arctic-icebreaker.

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China's Ministry of Transport has published a policy note presenting their plans to build a new heavy icebreaker which is expected to be used in the Arctic. The policy note also outlines China's need for a 100,000-ton semi-submersible heavy lift vessel akin to the one that is currently delivering prefabricated modules to Russia's liquified neutral gas (LNG) plants in the Arctic from the Zhoushan yard in China. Development reports indicate that this vessel will be able to rescue and salvage other vessels in the Arctic.

A vessel of this magnitude would be a great competition even to the largest semisubmersible heavy lift ships currently in service. These vessels are yet another pitstop on China's way towards their enhanced polar exploration, the Polar Journal reports.

The vessels fit into their latest five-year development plan, which aims to increase China's presence in the Arctic through the utilization of specialized vessels, including lift vessels as well as icebreakers.

The Ministry expects that within the next one to two years, basic construction plans for the two transportation projects will be completed alongside research on the emergency rescue capacity along the Northern Sea Route. In the next three to five years, the completion of the finalized technical design of the icebreaker and the semi-submersible will follow with a concrete deadline in 2025.

Marc Lanteigne, who is a professor and researcher in politics, security and international relations at the University of Tromsø said to High North News "[These plans] indicate that China still sees the Arctic as a policy priority, and wishes to continue to develop the Polar Silk Road despite many setbacks in the Nordic region, including with Greenland, as well as ongoing uncertainty over the post-pandemic economy,"

Additionally, Marc Lanteigne points out what China's perspective on what the Arctic region's prosperity might bring in the future is. He claims, "In addition to the heavy icebreaker, the heavy lift vehicle also suggests that Beijing is anticipating a considerable uptick in Chinese sea traffic, as well as increased demand for Russian fossil fuels, in the far north in the coming years."

If China's plan to build a third heavy icebreaker is successful, it will be the third addition to the country's icebreaker collection. China already operates two icebreakers; one built domestically, and the other one modified after it was bought from Ukraine.

ADVERTISEMENT

International naval security experts are suggesting that China is in the future going to focus on developing nuclear-powered icebreakers, which if successful, could be a domestic transportation paradigm shift. Nuclear propulsion technology can then be adopted across sectors and potentially power China's next generation aircraft carriers.

What is more is that it seems like the third Chinese icebreaker is only one of many to come. The recently published Ministry of Transport document also calls for the standardization and serialization of rescue ships, hinting at the fact that the third icebreaker might soon be joined by its doppelgangers in the Arctic waters.

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China's Ministry of Transport has published a policy note presenting their plans to build a new heavy icebreaker which is expected to be used in the Arctic. The policy note also outlines China's need for a 100,000-ton semi-submersible heavy lift vessel akin to the one that is currently delivering prefabricated modules to Russia's liquified neutral gas (LNG) plants in the Arctic from the Zhoushan yard in China.

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Chiles globale Müllhalde für Fast-Fashion (inkl. Audiocast), Quelle: Tagesschau

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Chiles globale Müllhalde für Fast-Fashion (inkl. Audiocast), Quelle: Tagesschau

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Fallbeispiel für globale Verflechtungen
Didaktische Zugänge (Auswahl, ungeordnet):
Funktionale Zusammenhänge visualisieren, inkl. "Ich-Karte" (dazu ggf. Mystery erstellen)
Untersuchen mithilfe der Vier Raumkonzepte oder des Nachhaltigkeitsvierecks
Untersuchen mithilfe der Maßstabsebenen, Verschränkung mit Systemkomponente Funktion
Lösungsansätze untersuchen, klären, was an Problemen bleibt

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Die Atacama-Wüste in Chile ist vor allem bekannt, weil sich dort das Riesenteleskop ALMA befindet. Doch inzwischen kennen viele den Ort auch aus einem anderen Grund. Hier gibt es riesige Berge mit entsorgter Kleidung.

Es sind Dinge, die hier nicht hingehören: Zwischen den kargen Dünen der Atacama-Wüste türmen sich T-Shirts und Bermudas in allen Farben, sogar Weihnachts-Outfits und Schneestiefel sind darunter.

Sofia, eine venezolanische Migrantin, zieht eine Jacke aus dem Textilberg: "Ich bin mit meinen beiden Kindern und einem sehr großen Koffer gekommen, aber ich musste auf dem Weg durch Südamerika alles wegwerfen. Ich habe sogar die Decke verloren. Die Kälte nachts frisst uns auf, vor allem die Kinder, es ist schwer auszuhalten."

59.000 Tonnen Kleidung pro Jahr

Die Kleidung, in der Sofia wühlt, ist Abfall. Chile ist seit langem eine Drehscheibe für gebrauchte und unverkaufte Textilien aus der ganzen Welt. In der Freihandelszone des Hafens von Iquique landen laut Recherchen der Nachrichtenagentur AFP jedes Jahr rund 59.000 Tonnen Kleidung. Was nicht in die Hauptstadt Santiago oder in Nachbarländer Südamerikas weiterverkauft wird, landet in der Wüste.

Chiles einzigartiger Desierto de Atacama wird zur Abfallhalde für Fast Fashion. Moyra Rojas, Regionalsekretärin des Umweltministeriums sagt: "Kein Zweifel, diese Mülldeponien und Textilabfälle sind ein großes Problem für die Umwelt. Sie verursachen oft Brände, das verschmutzt die Luft. Und das betrifft das auch die Anwohner, denn die Deponien befinden sich ganz in der Nähe von besiedelten Gebieten."

So giftig wie Reifen

Die Textilien sind so giftig wie Plastik oder Reifen. Sie enthalten viele Schadstoffe, beispielsweise durch das Färben, Bleichen oder Bedrucken. Laut einer aktuellen Studie von Greenpeace setzt die Textilindustrie mehr als 70 gesundheits- und umweltgefährdende Chemikalien ein. Das enthaltene Polyester braucht bis zu 200 Jahre, um sich abzubauen, und selbst dann bleiben sogenannte Mikroplastik-Artikel übrig.

Recycling-Firmen - isolierte Initiativen

Auf den normalen Deponien wird diese Art von Sondermüll gar nicht angenommen, sagt Franklin Zepeda. Er hat ein Unternehmen gegründet, das die ausrangierte Kleidung weiterverarbeitet. "Die Textilabfälle entstehen durch den Import der gebrauchten Kleidung. In der Freihandelszone wird sortiert nach hochwertigen und sekundären Kleidungsstücken und Abfall. Das ging früher alles in die Wüste, wir verwenden es jetzt als Rohstoff für unsere Wärmedämmplatten."

Auch die Gründerin des Unternehmens Ecocitex, Rosario Hevia aus Santiago, recycelt die verwitterten Textilien und stellt daraus Garn her. Doch es bleiben isolierte Initiativen im Kampf gegen ein weltweites Problem: die Überproduktion der Textilindustrie. Zwischen 2000 und 2014 habe sich die weltweite Textilproduktion verdoppelt, das geht aus einem UN-Bericht von 2019 hervor. Mittlerweile ist die Branche für rund 20 Prozent des Wasserverbrauchs weltweit verantwortlich.

"Weniger Unnötiges konsumieren"

"Viele Leute kritisieren uns und sagen: Warum verlangt ihr Geld fürs Recycling? Die Antwort ist: Wir müssen den Leuten klar machen, dass Textilabfälle Kosten verursachen und die Umwelt verschmutzen. Was man dagegen tun kann: Weniger Unnötiges konsumieren und Dinge länger tragen. Aber wir sehen ja: Kaum wurde irgendwo ein Lockdown aufgehoben, standen die Menschen Schlangen vor den Filialen von Zara, H&M und anderen Läden, die auf Fast Fashion ausgerichtet sind", sagt Rosario Hevia.

Umweltschutzorganisationen wie Greenpeace fordern mehr Druck auf die Textilbranche: "Es müsste die Pflicht zum fachgerechten Recycling bestehen. Die Menschen müssen umdenken", sagt Unternehmerin Hevia, und ihr eigenes Konsumverhalten hinterfragen.

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Atacama-Wüste in Chile: Müllhalde für Fast-Fashion

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Die Atacama-Wüste in Chile ist vor allem bekannt, weil sich dort das Riesenteleskop ALMA befindet. Doch inzwischen kennen viele den Ort auch aus einem anderen Grund. Hier gibt es riesige Berge mit entsorgter Kleidung. Von Anne Herrberg.

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Chiles globale Müllhalde für Fast-Fashion (inkl. Audiocast), Quelle: Tagesschau

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Chiles globale Müllhalde für Fast-Fashion (inkl. Audiocast), Quelle: Tagesschau

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Fallbeispiel für globale Verflechtungen
Didaktische Zugänge (Auswahl, ungeordnet):
Funktionale Zusammenhänge visualisieren, inkl. "Ich-Karte" (dazu ggf. Mystery erstellen)
Untersuchen mithilfe der Vier Raumkonzepte oder des Nachhaltigkeitsvierecks
Untersuchen mithilfe der Maßstabsebenen, Verschränkung mit Systemkomponente Funktion
Lösungsansätze untersuchen, klären, was an Problemen bleibt

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Die Atacama-Wüste in Chile ist vor allem bekannt, weil sich dort das Riesenteleskop ALMA befindet. Doch inzwischen kennen viele den Ort auch aus einem anderen Grund. Hier gibt es riesige Berge mit entsorgter Kleidung.

Es sind Dinge, die hier nicht hingehören: Zwischen den kargen Dünen der Atacama-Wüste türmen sich T-Shirts und Bermudas in allen Farben, sogar Weihnachts-Outfits und Schneestiefel sind darunter.

Sofia, eine venezolanische Migrantin, zieht eine Jacke aus dem Textilberg: "Ich bin mit meinen beiden Kindern und einem sehr großen Koffer gekommen, aber ich musste auf dem Weg durch Südamerika alles wegwerfen. Ich habe sogar die Decke verloren. Die Kälte nachts frisst uns auf, vor allem die Kinder, es ist schwer auszuhalten."

59.000 Tonnen Kleidung pro Jahr

Die Kleidung, in der Sofia wühlt, ist Abfall. Chile ist seit langem eine Drehscheibe für gebrauchte und unverkaufte Textilien aus der ganzen Welt. In der Freihandelszone des Hafens von Iquique landen laut Recherchen der Nachrichtenagentur AFP jedes Jahr rund 59.000 Tonnen Kleidung. Was nicht in die Hauptstadt Santiago oder in Nachbarländer Südamerikas weiterverkauft wird, landet in der Wüste.

Chiles einzigartiger Desierto de Atacama wird zur Abfallhalde für Fast Fashion. Moyra Rojas, Regionalsekretärin des Umweltministeriums sagt: "Kein Zweifel, diese Mülldeponien und Textilabfälle sind ein großes Problem für die Umwelt. Sie verursachen oft Brände, das verschmutzt die Luft. Und das betrifft das auch die Anwohner, denn die Deponien befinden sich ganz in der Nähe von besiedelten Gebieten."

So giftig wie Reifen

Die Textilien sind so giftig wie Plastik oder Reifen. Sie enthalten viele Schadstoffe, beispielsweise durch das Färben, Bleichen oder Bedrucken. Laut einer aktuellen Studie von Greenpeace setzt die Textilindustrie mehr als 70 gesundheits- und umweltgefährdende Chemikalien ein. Das enthaltene Polyester braucht bis zu 200 Jahre, um sich abzubauen, und selbst dann bleiben sogenannte Mikroplastik-Artikel übrig.

Recycling-Firmen - isolierte Initiativen

Auf den normalen Deponien wird diese Art von Sondermüll gar nicht angenommen, sagt Franklin Zepeda. Er hat ein Unternehmen gegründet, das die ausrangierte Kleidung weiterverarbeitet. "Die Textilabfälle entstehen durch den Import der gebrauchten Kleidung. In der Freihandelszone wird sortiert nach hochwertigen und sekundären Kleidungsstücken und Abfall. Das ging früher alles in die Wüste, wir verwenden es jetzt als Rohstoff für unsere Wärmedämmplatten."

Auch die Gründerin des Unternehmens Ecocitex, Rosario Hevia aus Santiago, recycelt die verwitterten Textilien und stellt daraus Garn her. Doch es bleiben isolierte Initiativen im Kampf gegen ein weltweites Problem: die Überproduktion der Textilindustrie. Zwischen 2000 und 2014 habe sich die weltweite Textilproduktion verdoppelt, das geht aus einem UN-Bericht von 2019 hervor. Mittlerweile ist die Branche für rund 20 Prozent des Wasserverbrauchs weltweit verantwortlich.

"Weniger Unnötiges konsumieren"

"Viele Leute kritisieren uns und sagen: Warum verlangt ihr Geld fürs Recycling? Die Antwort ist: Wir müssen den Leuten klar machen, dass Textilabfälle Kosten verursachen und die Umwelt verschmutzen. Was man dagegen tun kann: Weniger Unnötiges konsumieren und Dinge länger tragen. Aber wir sehen ja: Kaum wurde irgendwo ein Lockdown aufgehoben, standen die Menschen Schlangen vor den Filialen von Zara, H&M und anderen Läden, die auf Fast Fashion ausgerichtet sind", sagt Rosario Hevia.

Umweltschutzorganisationen wie Greenpeace fordern mehr Druck auf die Textilbranche: "Es müsste die Pflicht zum fachgerechten Recycling bestehen. Die Menschen müssen umdenken", sagt Unternehmerin Hevia, und ihr eigenes Konsumverhalten hinterfragen.

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Atacama-Wüste in Chile: Müllhalde für Fast-Fashion

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Die Atacama-Wüste in Chile ist vor allem bekannt, weil sich dort das Riesenteleskop ALMA befindet. Doch inzwischen kennen viele den Ort auch aus einem anderen Grund. Hier gibt es riesige Berge mit entsorgter Kleidung. Von Anne Herrberg.

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Artikel (engl. Sprache)

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By Siddharth Cavale and Corina Pons (Reuters) - Major clothing and shoe companies are moving production to countries closer to their U.S. and European stores, smarting from a resurgence in cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus in Vietnam and China that slowed or shut down production for several weeks earlier this year.

The disclosures come amid a massive shipping logjam that is driving up costs and forcing companies to rethink their globe-spanning supply chains and low-cost manufacturing hubs in Asia..

The latest example is Spanish fashion retailer Mango, which told Reuters on Friday it has "accelerated" its process of increasing local production in countries such as Turkey, Morocco and Portugal. In 2019, the company largely sourced its products from China and Vietnam. Mango told Reuters that it would "considerably" expand the number of units manufactured locally in Europe in 2022.

Similarly, U.S. shoe retailer Steve Madden on Wednesday said it had pulled back production in Vietnam and had shifted 50% of its footwear production to Brazil and Mexico from China, while Rubber clogs maker Crocs said last month it was moving production to countries including Indonesia and Bosnia.

Bulgaria, Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, Morocco and Turkey were some of the countries drawing new interest from clothing and shoe producers, though China continues to produce a large share of the apparel for U.S. and European clothing chains.

"We are seeing a lot of growth in freight and trucking activity in the former Soviet Republics ... a big rise in Hungary and Romania," said Barry Conlon, chief executive of Overhaul, a supply chain risk management firm.

In Turkey, apparel exports are expected to reach $20 billion this year, an all-time high, driven by a spike in orders from the European Union, Turkey's Union of Chambers Clothing and Garment Council data showed. In 2020, exports totaled $17 billion.

In Bosnia & Herzegovina, exports of textiles, leather and footwear amounted to 739.56 million marka ($436.65 million) in the first half of 2021, higher than the same period in 2020.

"Many companies from the European Union, which is our most important trading partner, are looking for new suppliers and new supply chains in the Balkan market," said Professor Muris Pozderac, secretary of the association of textile, clothing, leather and footwear in Bosnia & Herzegovina.

In Guatemala, where Nordstrom significantly shifted its private-label volume production in 2020, clothing exports were a touch over $1 billion as of the end of August this year, up 34.2% from 2020 and even 8.8% higher than in 2019.

To be sure, many companies are also still heavily reliant on Vietnam, where recent production stoppages have caused significant disruptions. Vietnam's government said in October that it will fall short of its garment exports target this year, by $5 billion in a worst-case scenario, due to the impacts of coronavirus restrictions and a shortage of workers.

Factory inspections in Vietnam - a proxy for retailer manufacturing orders - fell 40% in the third quarter versus the second quarter, with production during those months quickly moving to Bangladesh, India and Cambodia. Inspection rates in Vietnam were still hovering at lower levels in the fourth quarter, with a small uptick seen in late October, said Mathieu Labasse, vice president of QIMA, a supply-chain quality control and auditing firm that represents more than 15,000 brands. Apparel maker VF Corp and outdoor gear maker Columbia Sportswear were among companies that warned that there would be delays in fall and spring collections and in some cases insufficient size assortments.

Michael Kors handbags maker Capri Holdings said on Wednesday that it would not have the inventories it wanted for the holiday season, while athletic gear maker Under Armour said on last Tuesday it was canceling purchase orders from Vietnam just to help get "the factories get back up and caught up."

Additional reporting by Ceyda Caglayan in Istanbul and Diego Ore in Mexico City; Editing by Steve Orlofsky
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2021.

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Shipping Logjam Is Forcing Major Companies To Rethink Their Manufacturing Hubs In Asia

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By Siddharth Cavale and Corina Pons (Reuters) - Major clothing and shoe companies are moving production to countries closer to their U.S. and European stores, smarting from a resurgence in cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus in Vietnam and China that slowed or shut down production for several weeks earlier this year.

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Ist das noch Wetter oder schon Klima(krise)?

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Ist das noch Wetter oder schon Klima(krise)?

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Attributionsforschung

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World Weather Attribution uses weather observations and climate models to understand how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. The studies also assess the role of vulnerability and exposure in the extent of the impacts.

Most studies are performed rapidly, in the aftermath of extreme weather events - or even while they're still happening - to answer the increasingly common question: 'what was the role of climate change in this event?'

Formed in 2015, WWA has performed more than 50 attribution studies on heatwaves, extreme rainfall, drought, floods, wildfires and cold spells around the world.

To contact World Weather Attribution, email wwamedia@imperial.ac.uk

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World Weather Attribution uses weather observations and climate models to understand how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. The studies also assess the role of vulnerability and exposure in the extent of the impacts.

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Regelmäßig aktualisierte Karte

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Regelmäßig aktualisierte Karte

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Dossier der Siberian Times (engl.) mit zahlreichen beeindruckenden Bildern des aktuellen Wandels.

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One of August 2021 devastating wildfires in Yakutia, Russia's coldest territory

As world leaders and delegations gather in Glasgow for the UN Climate Change Conference, here is our postcard from Siberia, highlighting the way the planet is visibly changing in front of our eyes.

In our time, we see all around troubling events unfamiliar to our parents and grandparents.

Statistics show that in 2020, Russia was 3.2C degrees warmer than the average in the three decades to 1990. Winter temperatures are milder than ever, with air warming up to 5C above the norm.

The number of forest fires have increased four-fold, while storms and hurricanes are ten times more likely.

In 2003 President Vladimir Putin quipped that '2 to 3 degrees [of global warming] wouldn't hurt. We'll spend less on fur coats'.

While he will not travel to Glasgow, he said recently: 'Change and environmental degradation are so obvious that even the most careless people can no longer dismiss them.

'One can continue to engage in scientific debates about the mechanisms behind the ongoing processes, but it is impossible to deny that these processes are getting worse, and something needs to be done.

'Natural disasters such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, and tsunamis have almost become the new normal, and we are getting used to them.

'Suffice it to recall the devastating, tragic floods in Europe last summer, the fires in Siberia - there are a lot of examples.'

Here are eight big ways that Siberia is changing

Our pictures are from two separate locations thousands of kilometres apart: the Arctic Ocean, and the world's oldest and deepest freshwater reservoir, Lake Baikal.

In both cases methane is being released in a way not seen just a generation ago due to the rapid thawing of permafrost, which had sealed the gas for tens of thousands of years - until now.

Discharges in the Laptev and East Siberian seas observed from the Akademik Keldysh research vessel showed high methane concentrations from underwater craters and 'super seep holes' in the thawing ocean floor permafrost.

Bubble clouds are rising from a depth of around 300 metres (985ft) along a large undersea slope, as our view shows.

'They look like holes in the permafrost and, as our studies showed, they were formed by massive methane discharge,' explained Professor Igor Semiletov. 'Two more powerful seeps emitting methane through iceberg furrows were also discovered in the East Siberian Sea.'

Scientists identified half a dozen "mega seeps" and found concentration of atmospheric methane above these fields reaching 16-32ppm (parts per million). This is up to 15 times the planetary average of 1.85ppm.

We now go south to majestic Baikal where unworldly images are seen beneath the frozen ice on a lake containing 20 per cent - yes, one fifth - of the world's unfrozen freshwater.

These unworldly under-ice shapes are stunningly natural artistry; yet beneath the crystal clear frozen surface they also signal leaking methane.

The lake has some two dozen major deepwater methane seeps - below 380 metres (1,250 ft) - and hundreds of shallower gas fountains.

The quantity of methane hidden in gas hydrates in Baikal is estimated at one trillion cubic metres.

Huge explosions in the past decade or so have caused the formation of at least 20 giant craters in and near the Yamal peninsula in northern Siberia. By summer 2021 scientists have identified some 7,185 bulging Arctic mounds, potentially at risk of erupting.

'Five to six per cent of these 7,185 mounds are really dangerous,' warned Professor Vasily Bogoyavlensky.

Gas fields at Bovanenkovo, Novoportovskoye and South-Tambey are in jeopardy, as is the strategic $27 billion Sabetta LNG hub, he said.

Some of these rapidly-developing potentially explosive bulging hillocks on the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas are close to settlements and gas fields vital for energy supplies in Europe.

Inside the 'heave mounds' is unstable methane released due to thawing permafrost.

One example was a summer 2020 eruption leaving a 40 metre (131ft) deep crater.

In an explosion in 2018 in Lake Otkrytie, its 1.5 metre (5ft) thick ice cover was smashed with debris scattering some 50 metres (165ft) from the epicentre.

Some 65 per cent of Russia - the world's largest geographical country - is permafrost, and it is thawing fast. Our pictures show some of the dire consequences, and the crisis will worsen in coming years.

Reports have warned of a dramatic weakening of the 'bearing capacity' of the ground inn, for example, Russia's diamond capital Yakutsk and nickel mining hub Norilsk, both built on permafrost.

Once usable railway lines built in the Stalin era in far-flung Siberian locations like TransBaikal are now wonky and twisted due to the ground moving because of permafrost thaw. Bridges, too, have collapsed.

A picture here shows a building collapse by 10 metres (33ft).

Russia has used a trusted method of building in permafrost regions, driving piles deep into the frozen ground. But if the ground is no longer frozen, the whole reality changes. Swamps and lakes appear, towns and even cities become unviable.

Nikita Zimov, director of the Russian North-Eastern Scientific Station near Chersky has highlighted the destruction within two years of a defunct sewage treatment plant in Yakutia, the world's coldest inhabited region. It 'snapped in the middle' as a portion of the structure subsided, while a concrete road leading to the plant sank into a new ravine, totally vanishing, he said.

He warned: 'The temperature of the permafrost is rising, and we are reaching the point when it will begin to thaw everywhere, and very actively. We are heading towards a vicious circle when climate warming will speed up the thawing of permafrost, which will in turn add to faster climate warming and further accelerate the thawing, until all active carbon is released from permafrost.'

From his vantage point running The Pleistocene Park, which aims to restore fauna of mammoth steppes of the Pleistocene Era, he envisages a terrible toll.

Permafrost is thawing much faster than many expected.

'Once our permafrost starts to thaw we will no longer need to worry about factories or any other sources of emission, because the main emission of methane will be coming from here (in the Arctic). And the process has started.'

This devastating release will happen in a flash of the evolutionary timescale.

'We believe this process will take from 100 or 200 years,' Nikita Zimov said.

His concern relates to the top 40 metres (130 ft) layer of ground which is thawing 'worryingly fast' in Yakutia.

Permafrost is the hard frozen mix of soil, sand and ice lying under cities, towns and vast unpopulated areas in polar regions. Comprising up to 500 gigaton of organic matter like roots of ancient grass, bushes and trees, plus the remains of animals - this is permafrost in Yakutia alone, and by its estimated weight it is heavier than all currently growing Earth's biomass.

It is the world's biggest reservoir of organic carbon which converts into a greenhouse gas including methane once it thaws.

A new satellite image shows the widening of the Batagai Depression, a 'megaslump', nicknamed by the local residents as the Mouth of Hell. The tadpole-shaped giant hole was measured several years ago at 100 metres (330ft) deep and around 1,000 metres (3,300ft) in length, with a width of 800 metres (2,650ft).

New precise measurements are awaited from this gash in the ground but the snapshot from space shows it broadening. Inside the crater, as our pictures show, water frozen in the soil for tens of thousands of years trickles and gushes away, released from its ancient clasp.

Chunks of thawing permafrost fall off the cliffs.

Sergey Fyodorov, researcher at the Institute of Applied Ecology, Yakutsk, told us: 'One of the most serious things we must understand looking at this slump is that its growth is not something we, humans, can stop. We cannot put a curtain against the sun rays to stop it from thawing.

'Even at the beginning of September, when air temperatures drop to zero, you see springs and rivers of water.

'As you stand inside the slump on soft piles of soil that was left after ice thawed, you hear it 'talking to you', with the cracking sound of ice and a non-stop monotonous gurgling of little springs and rivers of water."

The trigger for his crater's formation was man made, caused by the removal of trees.

Then the thawing of the permafrost in Yakutia took over, and the expansion is now rapid.

Annual discoveries are now made of the remains of extinct woolly mammoths or rhinos as well as long-gone cave bears and pre-historic horses. The thawing of permafrost has given scientists access to an untold treasure trove of not merely bones but the flesh and fur, the cells and even blood, of the past.

Scientists are working to bring some of these species back to life, yet there is another side to the reappearance of these lost animals.

In the last five years, born-again anthrax in the Yamal peninsula has been released and killed both humans and reindeer.

Hundreds of Russian chemical and bio-warfare troops were deployed to destroy the infected reindeer remains on Yamal. The release of eradicated smallpox remains a threat.

A graveyard on the Kolyma River was created in the 1890s to bury the dead from a major smallpox outbreak. The combination of permafrost thawing and flooding - another consequence of climate change - risks reopening such graves.

Many other dangers lurk in shallow Arctic graves of both humans and animals, which might be unlocked from the ice after centuries, or longer.

Viktor Maleyev, deputy chief of Russia's Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, has warned of new "giant viruses" in, for example, woolly mammoths, the carcasses of which are now appearing with regularity.

'Their pathology has not been proven, we must continue to study them,' he said. 'Climate change will bring us many surprises. I don't want to scare anyone, but we should be ready.'

A study released in October 2021 found that the bacteria Acinetobacter lwoffii, extracted from permafrost thousands or millions of years old, were resistant to antibiotics.

The bacteria were from the mists of time yet had much in common with modern strains, said scientist Dr Nikolai Ravin, head of the Laboratory of Molecular Cloning at the Research Centre of Biotechnology, Russian Academy of Sciences.

'Our colleagues received similar results and the situation is frightening,' he warned. 'Global warming can only be slowed down, but it can never be stopped, and it can release new infections.

'A study of these potential pathogens now buried in permafrost could save our lives and health in the future.'

In 2021 have seen the worst wildfires in recorded history. If this year, they were further south, last year they raged more intensively in the far north, above the Arctic Circle.

The statistics are jaw-dropping, and the consequences for Siberia's nature, and residents, distressing. The phenomenon of 'smoking snow' in the Tomponsky district of Yakutia highlights the new normal.

Here a fire burns underground in the thawed permafrost, all year, even when the temperature plunges below minus 50C.

A video shows the wafts of smoke rising from the zombie fire some 400 km (250 miles) north-east of the republic's capital Yakutsk, the world's coldest city..

Local resident Ivan Zakharov, who filmed the fire at exactly minus 50C in January this year, told The Siberian Times: 'It is burning in the same area that was hit by summer wildfires.

'This area suffered extremely hot and dry weather. It must be either peat on fire here, or, as some hunters who noticed these fires suggest, possibly young coal (lignite).'

This year's worst-ever wildfires were signalled in the first days of May - with snow and ice still on the ground - in the vicinity of Oymyakon, known as the world's coldest permanently inhabited village.

Huge flames raged on the Road of Bones, built in the Soviet era by prisoners of repression in some of the world's coldest outposts.

Yakutsk and other Siberian cities were blotted out by toxic fumes from the fires, as much as 95 times allowable levels, and the smoke which also wafted across the Pacific to North America.

The Siberian fires in 2021 exceeded those in the rest of the world combined, in a year that saw the huge infernos in the US, Spain and Turkey.

The destruction covered an area larger than Portugal, or Maine.

'They have pumped 800 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere since the start of June, more than the annual emissions of Germany, Europe's biggest polluter,' reported The Times.

'One of the individual blazes was said by Greenpeace to be a contender for the planet's largest fire since records began.'

Children watched in horror as a bridge collapsed in severe floods in Trans-Baikal region in July. A truck was washed away by the swollen waters in Uryum but the driver miraculously escaped.

Siberia can experience floods and droughts at the same time, a weather rollercoaster of lashing rains but also lengthy parched periods without precipitation.

On the same day across the eight time zones from the Urals to the Pacific, weather and news reports may be drawing attention to record heat waves, burst rivers, dry spells, unseasonal snow and tornadoes.

The year 2019 saw the worst flooding in recorded history in Irkutsk region. An epicentre was Tulun where grandmother Anella Danelyuk, 83, called her family to say sudden surging water was up to her neck, as she claimed on a chest of drawers.

She made clear this was her final call before expecting to drown - and she was one of dozens to die and go missing as rivers rose by up to 14 metres (46ft).

Yet it is also long periods of drought - this year in the north - that has enabled the wildfires to rampage across Siberia.

There was an epic sight last year of the giant sailing ship STS Sedov sailing across the Arctic Ocean from Asia to Europe. The crew encountered almost no significant ice floes across thousands of nautical miles.

An accompanying Russian icebreaker vessel was virtually redundant as the Sedov ventured across the Bering, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev and Kara seas.

The four-masted German-made steel barque's journey shows that the Northern Sea Route now viably connects the Pacific and Atlantic.

How different from 142 years earlier.

The vessel sailed past the location off Chukotka where in 1878 the famous Vega Expedition became stuck in pack ice for 11 months as it made the first-ever successful voyage from Europe to Asia via the Arctic sea route.

Ivan Fedyushin, second officer on the STS Sedov, said: 'We did not encounter even remnants of ice fields. We can say that global climate changes now make sea routes in polar waters more accessible for all types of ships.'

This is an economic boon to Russia, and the coming years are expected to see a major rise in trade taking advantage of the northern route.

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Siberia's stark warning to Scotland for Cop26: climate change in the planet's last great wilderness

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One of August 2021 devastating wildfires in Yakutia, Russia's coldest territory As world leaders and delegations gather in Glasgow for the UN Climate Change Conference, here is our postcard from Siberia, highlighting the way the planet is visibly changing in front of our eyes.

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...erklärt und visualisiert vom PIK Potsdam

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Kippelemente sind Bestandteile des Erdsystems von überregionaler Größe, die ein Schwellenverhalten aufweisen. Sofern das Hintergrundklima sie schon nahe an einen Schwellenwert gebracht hat, können sie also bereits durch kleine externe Störungen in einen qualitativ neuen Zustand versetzt werden. Beim Vergleich mit dem menschlichen Körper könnten Organe als Kippelemente beschrieben werden. Diese verändern ihre gewohnte Funktionsweise drastisch oder stellen sie gar ein, sobald bestimmte Voraussetzungen, wie zum Beispiel Sauerstoffzufuhr, nicht mehr in ausreichendem Maße erfüllt sind.
Dem Schwellenverhalten im Erdsystem liegen oft selbstverstärkende Prozesse zugrunde, die - einmal angestoßen - auch ohne weiteren externen Einfluss weiterlaufen. Dadurch kann es passieren, dass der neue Zustand eines Kippelementes erhalten bleibt, selbst wenn das Hintergrundklima wieder hinter den Schwellenwert zurückfällt. Der Übergang nach dem Überschreiten eines systemspezifischen Kipppunktes kann dabei sprunghaft, aber auch kriechend erfolgen. Bereits das Überschreiten einzelner Kipppunkte hat weitreichende Umweltauswirkungen, die die Lebensgrundlage vieler Menschen gefährden.
Es besteht zudem das Risiko, dass durch Rückkopplungsprozesse weitere Kipppunkte im Erdsystem überschritten werden und so eine dominoartige Kettenreaktion ausgelöst wird. Eine solche „Kipp-Kaskade" könnte das Erdsystem in eine neue Heißzeit katapultieren.

Abbildung: Geografische Einordnung der wichtigsten Kippelemente im Erdsystem mit Angabe der Klimazonen nach Köppen. Die Kippelemente lassen sich in drei Klassen einteilen: Eiskörper, sich verändernde Strömungs- bzw. Zirkulationssysteme der Ozeane und der Atmosphäre, und bedrohte Ökosysteme von überregionaler Bedeutung. Fragezeichen kennzeichnen Systeme, deren Status als Kippelement wissenschaftlich noch nicht gesichert ist. Quelle: PIK, 2017.

Die Karte der Kippelemente ist lizenziert unter einer Creative Commons BY-ND 3.0 DE Lizenz.

Klicken Sie auf die Überschriften, um mehr Information zu einzelnen Kippelementen zu erhalten.

Eiskörper

Wo das helle Eis schwindet, kommt meist ein dunklerer Untergrund zum Vorschein, sei es das felsige Bett eines Gletschers oder das Meer. Diese freigelegte dunkle Oberfläche nimmt mehr Sonnenwärme auf, die wiederum den Schwund des verbliebenen Eises beschleunigt. Dieser Mechanismus, die so genannte Eis-Albedo-Rückkopplung, ist ein klassisches Beispiel eines selbstverstärkenden Prozesses, bei dem ein und dasselbe Phänomen, nämlich der Eisverlust, sowohl Folge als auch ein Teil der Ursache der lokalen Temperaturerhöhung ist. Daneben gibt es noch viele weitere Mechanismen, welche - wie im Folgenden beschrieben - die großen Eismassen des Erdsystems zu Kippelementen machen.

Große Teile der Sohle des Westantarktischen Eisschildes liegen auf dem kontinentalen Rücken unterhalb des Meeresspiegels, und zwar immer tiefer, je weiter man „eisstromaufwärts" ins Innere dieses Teils des Kontinents vordringt. Diese spezielle Situation führt dazu, dass der Eisschild aufgrund bestimmter Fließprozesse instabil werden kann. Sollte der Westantarktische Eisschild durch diesen Prozess zerfallen, würde der Meeresspiegel im Laufe von Jahrhunderten um über drei Meter ansteigen. Allerdings gibt es Hinweise darauf, dass - ob mit oder ohne menschliches Zutun - genau solch ein Prozess heute bereits anfänglich im Gange ist.

Die arktischen Perma- oder Dauerfrostböden, gefroren über Jahrhunderte bis Jahrtausende, befinden sich in Sibirien und Nordamerika und könnten beim Auftauen riesige Mengen an Kohlenstoffdioxid und Methan freisetzen. In den obersten drei Metern sind um die Tausend Milliarden Tonnen Kohlenstoff gespeichert. Permafrost kann aber noch viel tiefer reichen: In sogenannten Yedoma-Böden sind in Tiefen von mehr als 3 Metern vermutlich nochmal mehrere hundert Milliarden Tonnen Kohlenstoff gespeichert - diese Stoffe stammen aus organischem Material, welches während und seit der letzten Eiszeit hier eingelagert wurde. Mikroorganismen, die diese Kohlenstoffverbindungen zersetzen, erzeugen Wärme und beschleunigen so das Auftauen und die Zersetzung des Bodens. Wegbrechender Boden setzt bei der sogenannten Thermokarst-Bildung auch tieferliegende Schichten Tau- und Zersetzungsprozessen aus. Solche selbstverstärkten Zerstörungsprozesse, befeuert durch eine zweieinhalb mal schnellere Erwärmung der Arktis im Vergleich zum globalen Mittel, wären auf kurzen Zeitskalen von wenigen Jahrhunderten nicht wieder umkehrbar, da sich die ursprüngliche Einlagerung über viele Jahrtausende hingezogen hat.

Strömungssysteme

Es gibt ganzjährig oder saisonal vorherrschende großskalige Muster von Luft- und Meeresströmungen, sowie mehrjährige natürliche Schwankungen, die nicht unveränderlich sind. In der Klimageschichte unseres Planeten hat es mehrfach Umbrüche und Phasen der Neuorganisation gegeben. Mit welchen möglicherweise abrupten Veränderungen der Strömungssysteme wir in Zukunft zu rechnen haben, ist im Folgenden zusammengefasst.

Durch die Ausdehnung der subtropischen Trockenzone nach Norden nehmen die Niederschlagsmengen im Südwesten Nordamerikas schon heute ab.Die für den Niederschlag in der Region verantwortlichen Strömungsmuster des Ozeans und der Atmosphäre weisen große Ähnlichkeiten mit einem Monsunsystem auf. Entsprechend könnte ein Kipppunkt existieren, bei dessen Überschreiten der Südwesten der USA schlagartig mit noch größerer Trockenheit zu kämpfen hätte.

Ökosysteme

Wenn es Pflanzen- und Tierarten in einem Gebiet zu warm oder zu trocken wird - wenn sich ihre ökologische Nische aufgrund klimatischer Änderungen schließt - werden sie sich dort nicht halten können. Einige Arten sind gut dafür gerüstet auszuweichen, zum Beispiel polwärts oder in größere Höhenlagen. Arten, die an sehr spezifische Lebensbedingungen wie z.B. in Gebirgs- oder Polarlebensräumen angepasst sind - können das nicht. Ohnehin sind geeignete Lebensräume in der heute zum größten Teil vom Menschen beanspruchten Welt rar. Der Klimawandel könnte ganze Landstriche verändern, indem er Ökosystem-Gemeinschaften, ihr typisches Klima und die daran angepassten Artengemeinschaften verschwinden lässt.

Die Weltmeere nehmen riesige Mengen an Kohlenstoff auf - rund 40% der bisherigen anthropogenen CO 2 Emissionen wurden so der Atmosphäre wieder entzogen. Ein großer Teil davon wird von Algen zum Wachstum genutzt und sinkt nach deren Absterben in die Tiefsee. Die Funktion dieser so genannten marinen biologischen Kohlenstoffpumpe könnte durch Erwärmung und Versauerung des Wassers sowie häufiger auftretende Sauerstoffarmut eingeschränkt werden.

Allgemeines zu Kippelementen

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim. Selbstverbrennung: Die fatale Dreiecksbeziehung zwischen Klima, Mensch und Kohlenstoff. C. Bertelsmann Verlag, Kapitel 21, 2015.

Levermann, Anders, et al. "Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe." Climatic Change 110.3-4 (2012): 845-878.

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim. "Tipping elements in the Earth System." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106.49 (2009): 20561-20563.

Lenton, Timothy M., et al. "Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system." Proceedings of the national Academy of Sciences 105.6 (2008): 1786-1793.

Lenton, Timothy M., and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. "Tipping the scales." Nature Climate Change 1.712 (2007): 97-98.

Lenton, Timothy M., et al. "Climate tipping points-too risky to bet against." (2019): 592-595.

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim "Facing Climate Change: Tipping Points and U-Turns." In Buckland, D. et al. (Eds.), Burning Ice. Cape Farewell, London (2006): 112

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, and Held, Hermann. "How Fragile is the Earth System?" In Briden, J. C. and Downing, T. E. (Eds.), Managing the Earth. The Linacre Lextures 2001. Oxford University Press, Oxford, (2002): 5

Referenzen

1.

Lenton, Timothy M., et al. "Climate tipping points-too risky to bet against." (2019): 592-595.

18.

Rahmstorf, S. et al. Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 1-6 (2015). doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2554

Klimaklassifikation nach Köppen

Köppen-Klimaklassifikation modifiziert nach Trewartha und mit
Berücksichtigung abweichender Verfahren nach Rudloff.

Köppen, W. (1936). Das geographische System der Klimate. In: Köppen W., Geiger R. (eds) Handbuch der Klimatologie, Bd. I, Borntraeger, Berlin.

Trewartha, G. T. (1968). An introduction to climate, McGraw-Hill, New York.

Rudloff, W. (1981). World-Climates, with tables of climatic data and
practical suggestions, Wissenschaftliche Verlagsgesellschaft, Stuttgart.

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Kippelemente - Achillesfersen im Erdsystem

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Kippelemente sind Bestandteile des Erdsystems von überregionaler Größe, die ein Schwellenverhalten aufweisen. Sofern das Hintergrundklima sie schon nahe an einen Schwellenwert gebracht hat, können sie also bereits durch kleine externe Störungen in einen qualitativ neuen Zustand versetzt werden. Beim Vergleich mit dem menschlichen Körper könnten Organe als Kippelemente beschrieben werden.

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Erste Ideen für die Verwendung im Unterricht:

Zur (an Daten oder Modellen?) begründeten Auswahl der x wichtigsten Maßnahmen in Region Y.

Zur begründeten Ableitung möglicher konkreter Maßnahmen / Lösungsansätze bezüglich des gerade behandelten Raumbeispiels/Sachverhalts.

...

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How to get the World to Netzero by 2050 - a graphical guide.
The latest research, ideas, strategies and numbers in one visualisation.

Taken from the book ' Beautiful News ' by David McCandless (HarperCollins 2021)

We have a Trello / Kanban set up of 2050 Netzero Project Plan
We'll be adding graphics and more info to it gradually.

" See the data & sources
" See our previous (micro) version

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How to Get the World to Netzero by 2050 - Information is Beautiful

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Skip to content How to get the World to Netzero by 2050 - a graphical guide. The latest research, ideas, strategies and numbers in one visualisation. Taken from the book ' Beautiful News ' by David McCandless (HarperCollins 2021) We have a Trello / Kanban set up of 2050 Netzero Project Plan We'll be adding graphics and more info to it gradually.

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Erste Ideen für die Verwendung im Unterricht:

Zur (an Daten oder Modellen?) begründeten Auswahl der x wichtigsten Maßnahmen in Region Y.

Zur begründeten Ableitung möglicher konkreter Maßnahmen / Lösungsansätze bezüglich des gerade behandelten Raumbeispiels/Sachverhalts.

...

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How to get the World to Netzero by 2050 - a graphical guide.
The latest research, ideas, strategies and numbers in one visualisation.

Taken from the book ' Beautiful News ' by David McCandless (HarperCollins 2021)

We have a Trello / Kanban set up of 2050 Netzero Project Plan
We'll be adding graphics and more info to it gradually.

" See the data & sources
" See our previous (micro) version

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How to Get the World to Netzero by 2050 - Information is Beautiful

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Skip to content How to get the World to Netzero by 2050 - a graphical guide. The latest research, ideas, strategies and numbers in one visualisation. Taken from the book ' Beautiful News ' by David McCandless (HarperCollins 2021) We have a Trello / Kanban set up of 2050 Netzero Project Plan We'll be adding graphics and more info to it gradually.

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Blog mit Info-Beiträgen zu Strukturen und Funktionen des Ökosystems Wald für Pedosphäre, Hydrosphäre, Atmosphäre und Biosphäre

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Willkommen bei „Forst erklärt"! Wir sind Jan, Simon und Felix. Wir studieren Forst in Göttingen und hier wollen wir Euch...

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Interaktives Erkunden von Klimawandelfolgen mit der Simulation „Kippelemente“

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Interaktives Erkunden von Klimawandelfolgen mit der Simulation „Kippelemente“

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Schüler*innen können auf einer interaktiven Weltkarte die Folgen des Klimawandels in verschiedenen Regionen der Erde erkunden können. Ein Temperaturregler ermöglicht den Lernenden, Klimawandelfolgen bei unterschiedlich starken Anstiegen der globalen Durchschnittstemperatur von einem bis zu sechs Grad Celsius zu untersuchen. Die interaktive Simulation ist auf eine Nutzung mit Schüler*innen ab Klasse 7 ausgerichtet.

Unterrichtsvorschläge und Video-Erkläranleitung: https://www1.wdr.de/schule/digital/unterrichtsmaterial/websimulation-kippelemente-100.html

begleitende Arbeitsblätter: https://www1.wdr.de/schule/digital/unterrichtsmaterial/arbeitsmaterial-kippelemente-100.pdf

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Prägnante Erläuterung (engl.) der Funktion nördlicher Torfmoore als Kohlenstoffspeicher

Zusätzlich: Bedeutung des Auftauens des Permafrosts in Torfmoorregionen: https://phys.org/news/2021-06-carbon-peatlands-permafrost.html

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Arctic peatland in Svalbard. Credit: Angela Gallego-Sala

A new study shows that substantial amounts of carbon dioxide were released during the last millennium because of crop cultivation on peatlands in the Northern Hemisphere.

Only about half of the carbon released through the conversion of peat to croplands was compensated by continuous carbon absorption in natural northern peatlands.

Peatlands are a type of wetland which store more organic carbon than any other type of land ecosystem in the world.

Due to waterlogged conditions, dead plant materials do not fully decay and carbon accumulates in peatlands over thousands of years.

Therefore, natural peatlands help to cool the climate by capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and trapping carbon in soils.

However, artificial drainage of peatlands for agriculture aerates the soil and enhances the decay of organic matter, rapidly releasing carbon into the atmosphere.

Peatlands are a missing piece of the carbon cycle puzzle; little is known about how much carbon has been released due to drainage and conversion of peatland to cropland during the historical sprawl of agriculture, and about the role of cultivated peatlands versus natural peatlands.

The new international study, led by INRAE and LSCE, and including the University of Exeter, quantified CO 2 fluxes in natural and cultivated peatlands between 850 and 2010.

The study provides the first detailed estimates of historical carbon losses from cultivated northern peatlands.

"We incorporated peatland hydrological and carbon processes into a process-based land surface model," said Chunjing Qiu who developed the model and designed the study, and worked at the Institut National de de recherche pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (INRAE) and the Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and Environment (LSCE) in France.

"This model is one of the first to simulate natural peatland and the conversion of peatland to cropland and resultant CO 2 emissions.

"We also looked at how the carbon emission rates of cultivated peatlands vary with time after conversion.

"High CO 2 emissions can occur after the initial drainage of peatland, but then, the emission rates decrease with time because of depletion of labile carbon and increasing recalcitrance of the remaining material."

Professor Angela Gallego-Sala, of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, said: "This study highlights how much carbon is lost if you drain peatlands, as we have done to many peatlands in Europe, but it also reminds us how important it is to make sure we manage peatlands appropriately."

The study shows that cultivated northern peatlands emitted 72 billons tons of carbon over 850-2010, and 40 billons tons over the period 1750-2010.

According to the authors, this indicates that historical CO 2 emissions caused by land-use changes are greater than previously estimated.

It also implies an underestimation of historical carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems if carbon emissions from cultivated peatlands is ignored.

"Carbon emissions from drainage of peatlands are a source of concern for national greenhouse gas budgets and future emission trajectories," said Philippe Ciais from LSCE, who co-lead the study with Chunjing Qiu.

"However, we have only a very few observations, and peatland drainage and cultivation are not explicitly considered by bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models used to compute the annual carbon budget.

"Emissions from cultivated peatlands are omitted in previous global carbon budget assessments.

"Our study brings new and important implications for a better understanding of the global carbon budget."

The paper, published in the journal Science Advances, is entitled: "Large historical carbon emissions from cultivated northern peatlands."

More information: C. Qiu el al., "Large historical carbon emissions from cultivated northern peatlands," Science Advances (2021). advances.sciencemag.org/lookup ... .1126/sciadv.abf1332

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Substantial carbon dioxide emissions from northern peatlands drained for crop cultivation

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A new study shows that substantial amounts of carbon dioxide were released during the last millennium because of crop cultivation on peatlands in the Northern Hemisphere. Only about half of the carbon released through the conversion of peat to croplands was compensated by continuous carbon absorption in natural northern peatlands.

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Die ökologische, ökonomische und soziale Bedeutung der Arktisregion, erklärt in einer Minute (englisch).
Erste Ideen:
> Als Recherche-Impuls für Fragen/Aufgaben zur Nutzung der Arktis
> ...

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🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21

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European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

# data[].attributes.wish_content.attachment_props.original_text
🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21 https://t.co/yeePzvXm67

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.authors[].name
European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props_source.data.text
🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21 https://t.co/yeePzvXm67

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props_source.includes.users[].name
European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.original_text
🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21 https://t.co/yeePzvXm67

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.text
🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.author.name
European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

# data[].attributes.body
Die ökologische, ökonomische und soziale Bedeutung der Arktisregion, erklärt in einer Minute (englisch).
Erste Ideen:
> Als Recherche-Impuls für Fragen/Aufgaben zur Nutzung der Arktis
> ...

# data[].attributes.wish_content.attachment_props.text
🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21

# data[].attributes.wish_content.attachment_props.author.name
European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

# data[].attributes.wish_content.attachment_props.original_text
🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21 https://t.co/yeePzvXm67

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.authors[].name
European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props_source.data.text
🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21 https://t.co/yeePzvXm67

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props_source.includes.users[].name
European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.original_text
🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21 https://t.co/yeePzvXm67

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.text
🧊 The situation in the Arctic changes dramatically. Temperature in some regions reached 🌡 38 degrees last year. But why #OnEarth does the Arctic matter? 

🇪🇺 Our EU Envoy @MichaelMannEU takes the 60 seconds challenge to answer. 

Read more 👇 https://t.co/8MzIqFotO7 #EED21

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.author.name
European External Action Service - EEAS 🇪🇺

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Diagramme auswerten und Klimakrise verstehen lernen im Schnelldurchlauf

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Diagramme auswerten und Klimakrise verstehen lernen im Schnelldurchlauf

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Verwendungsideen für den Unterricht: Materialgrundlage für
> eine Problemlösungs- oder Entscheidungsaufgabe
> Methodentraining am inhaltlichen Beispiel
> einen Faktencheck in Diskussionsrunden oder bei der Beurteilung von Akteursmeinungen (z. B. im Wertequadrat)
> die Gestaltung von "Tatsachen-und Meinungen"-Aufgaben

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Hey du, kurz mal Zeit für Klimakrise?

Ja, ich weiß. Eigentlich ist jetzt Feierabend, Mittagspause, Wochenende oder du sitzt gerade mit dem Smartphone auf Toilette. Und eigentlich willst du einfach mal den Kopf ausmachen. Schule, Ausbildung, Studium, Bewerbungen oder dein Job sind schon nervig genug und Spaß am Leben muss ja auch irgendwie drin sein. Und ja, der ganze Klimakram ist anscheinend kompliziert. Alle labern rum, tausend Zahlen und Meinungen kursieren, - anstrengend, richtig anstrengend! Wie so eine nie endende Politik-Talkshow, bei der sich niemand ausreden lässt. 🙅‍♂️

Aber hey! Wer Stories auf Instagram hinbekommt oder die Regeln vom Videobeweis in der Bundesliga im Detail diskutieren kann, der versteht auch den Klimakram und was zu tun ist. So kompliziert ist es nämlich gar nicht. 🍹 Also kühles Getränk aufmachen und weiterlesen:

So, was ist wirklich wichtig?

Eigentlich muss die Menschheit nur zwei Diagramme im Auge behalten: "CO2-Konzentration in der Atmosphäre" und "Weltweiter Land-Ozean-Temperaturindex". Auf diese beiden Diagramme werden wir gleich näher eingehen (Keine Sorge, gleich gibt es das erste versprochene Video!)

Diagramm 1: CO2 in der Atmosphäre

Das erste Messdiagramm (links) zeigt den aktuellen Anteil von Kohlenstoffdioxid, CO2, in der Atmosphäre unseres Planeten Erde an. Kohlenstoffdioxid, CO2, ist an sich ein natürliches Gas, welches unsichtbar und geruchlos ist und schon immer auf diesem Planeten zu finden war. Wir atmen es aus, Pflanzen können es aufnehmen und es entsteht auch bei der Verbrennung von Kohle oder Vulkanausbrüchen. Der Anteil von CO2 wird in parts per million (ppm) gemessen, die kleine Grafik oben links (monatliche Variation) musst du erstmal überhaupt nicht beachten:

Wie du siehst: Seit 1958 steigt der Wert der parts per million (ppm, linke Achse) ständig weiter. 2019 wurde (schon wieder) ein neuer Höchstwert, nämlich 415 parts per million, gemessen in der Erdatmosphäre ( Quelle). Gemessen wird die CO2-Konzentration täglich in der „Messstation Mauna Loa" in Haiwaii, welche sich auf einem Vulkangipfel befindet und daher eine gute Lage für eine möglichst genaue Messung bietet. Aber Moment - kann man das wirklich so genau messen, wie viel Gas in unserer Atmosphäre rumschwirrt? Und was war denn vor 1958, wie viel CO2 war da in der Atmosphäre? 💡 Hier kurz mal aufpassen, die Birne einschalten und das Video bis zu Minute 3:40 schauen:

Okay, das chemische Element Kohlenstoff (C) als auch das Gas Kohlenstoffdioxid (CO2) sind ja Teil der Natur, es gibt den natürlichen Kohlestoffkreislauf, der sowas regelt, also wo ist das Problem mit CO2?
Alles an sich kein Ding, stimmt schon. Problematisch sind aber die großen (unnatürlichen) Mengen des Gases, die bei der Verbrennung von Kohle, Öl und Gas von uns Menschen, bspw. in der Industrie, beim Bauen, für das Heizen oder im Mobilitätssektor, rausgepustet werden. Schon früh hatten einige Wissenschaftler:innen daher die These, dass sich durch diese Mehr-Menge an CO2 der Planet Erde stark aufhitzen wird. Was uns zum zweiten Diagramm führt (Halte durch!):

Diagramm 2: Temperaturabweichung über die Jahre

Das zweite Diagramm zeigt die durchschnittliche Abkühlung oder Erwärmung, wenn man alle Temperaturmessungen auf der Welt zusammenrechnet und noch so ein paar langweilige statistische Berechnungen macht. Im Grunde also ob es jeweils wärmer oder kälter wurde im Gesamtdurchschnitt pro Jahr und mit Blick auf die ganze Erdoberfläche gerechnet, daher auch Land-Ozean-Temperatur-Index. Gibt ja nicht nur Landfläche auf der Welt, sondern Meere machen ja auch viel aus:

Was sehen wir? Seit 1940 hat sich die Durchschnittstemperatur global gesehen also um ca. 1 Grad erhöht. Hört sich erstmal nicht viel an, hat aber schon ordentliche Konsequenzen (später gibt es dazu noch ein Video). Diese Temperaturabweichungen kann man natürlich ebenso für einzelne Länder, Regionen und Städte berechnen, hier z.B. die Abweichungen in Hannover ( „War die Temperatur in einem Jahr wärmer als die durchschnittliche Temperatur in diesem Zeitraum, färben wir den Streifen in Rottönen, war sie niedriger, in Blautönen." - Warming Stripes Tool von ZEIT Online, inspriert von Ed Hawkins):

Wir sehen: Es wurde (durchschnittlich) deutlich wärmer in den letzten Jahren, sowohl global gerechnet als auch in Hannover, was ja irgendwie so halbwegs mittig in Deutschland liegt. 😉 Auch in Österreich sowie der Schweiz sieht der Streifen ähnlich aus. Auf showyourstripes.info kann man alle Regionen der Erde durchgehen, auch hier: links viel blau, rechts dann viel rot. Alle, die es eilig haben, können sich auch einfach das folgende NASA-Video (30 Sekunden) anschauen und dann weiterscrollen:

🤔 Wir halten fest: Mehr CO2 in der Atmosphäre (erstes Diagramm), im Durchschnitt wird es wärmer (zweites Diagramm). Und was heißt das jetzt?!
Dazu kommen wir jetzt. Noch ein bisschen Text, zwei kurze Videos, dann sind wir durch. Also mach dir mal noch das zweite Kaltgetränk auf und ab in den Endspurt:

Warum steigen beide Werte (CO2, Temperatur)?

Wären die CO2-Konzentration sowie die durchschnittliche Temperatur die Kurse von Aktien, die wir gekauft haben, wäre es jetzt Zeit für den Champagner. Stetig steigend, großartig! 🍾🥂 Leider geht es aber um die Natur auf unserem Planeten, da heißen steigende Kurven in Diagrammen nicht immer etwas Gutes.

Gibt es nun also einen direkten Zusammenhang zwischen CO2-Konzentration und durchschnittlicher Temperatur auf dem Planeten?

Vorsicht: In der Welt der Statistik gibt es auch sogenannte Scheinkorrelationen bzw. Scheinkausalitäten. Eine solche kann vorliegen, wenn man zwei Diagramme hat und beide zusammenzuhängen scheinen, in Wirklichkeit beeinflusst aber eine dritte Variable die Situation. Ein schönes Beispiel findet sich hier bzgl. Eisdielen-Umsatz und Herz-Kreislauf-Problemen [sowie der dritten Variable Temperatur]).

Also Butter bei die Fische: Gibt es einen Zusammenhang zwischen CO2 in der Atmosphäre und den Temperaturen oder nicht? Noch mal kurz alle Konzentration sammeln und das folgende 3,5-Minuten-Video komplett durchhalten, welches das Zusammenspiel von CO2 und Temperatur auf der Erde erklärt (Du schaffst das! 💪):

Okay, Treibhauseffekt, klingt langweilig, aber gecheckt - grobe Daumenregel: Mehr CO2 in Atmosphäre = stärkerer Treibhauseffekt = steigende Temperaturen = Erde, Mensch, Tier und Ökosysteme schwitzen und sind unter Stress 🥵🔥 Einige Tierarten versuchen daher bereits in kältere Regionen zu flüchten ( Massenflucht von Tieren an die Pole hat begonnen). Mehr zum wissenschaftlichen Nachweis des Zusammenhangs findet sich übrigens u.a. auf klimafakten.de ("Ist vielleicht etwas anderes als der Mensch die Ursache?").

Fazit

Wir halten also zum Abschluss fest (ganz kurz noch durchhalten und dranbleiben!): Der Planet Erde hat sich durchschnittlich schon um 1 Grad erwärmt, Auslöser sind zum größten Teil wir Menschen.

„Okay"", wirst du vielleicht sagen, „ein bisschen höhere Temperaturen im Sommer kriegen wir ja auch mit Klimananlagen in Mitteleuropa irgendwie geregelt? Geht ja in anderen Ländern auch problemlos? Lebewesen und Ökosysteme passen sich an, Stichwort Evolution?"

Nunjaaaaa... Die Szenarien über 1,5 Grad sehen eher so aus, dass Klimaanlagen allein nicht reichen werden - siehe dieses letzte Video:

Die Menschheit muss an sich also "nur" schauen, dass das globale Thermometer nicht weiter steigt und daher muss der Treibhausgas/CO2-Ausstoß massiv reduziert werden. Ist keine Raketenwissenschaft, oder?

Glückwunsch, dass du dich hier durch gekämpft hast!

Und nun?

10% Restchance auf das Limitieren der Erwärmung auf 1,5 Grad

Ich würde hier gerne mit der guten Nachricht abschließen, dass noch voll viel Zeit bleibt. Aber Greta Thunberg sprach nicht ohne Grund von „I want you to panic". Laut Klimaforscher:innen wie Hans Joachim Schellnhuber haben wir, die Menschheit, in Sachen Klimaschutz viel zu lange viel zu wenig getan. Eigentlich vergleichbar mit dem Lernen vor Klausuren oder dem Abgabetermin einer Hausarbeit - wir chillen viel zu lange und dann wird es extrem stressig. Schellnhuber sagte kürzlich mit Blick auf das 1,5-Grad-Limitierungsziel folgendes [Quelle: DIE ZEIT Nr. 40/2020 24.09.2020, via @Jumpsteady]:

„Mein Problem ist nicht die Übertreibung. Beim Klima ist eigentlich alles, was schiefgehen konnte, schiefgegangen. Schauen Sie sich einfach die Emissionskurve an, das ist ein Faktum: Die geht nach oben und oben. Mein Problem ist inzwischen eher die Untertreibung. Eigentlich endet jedes Interview mit der Frage: Haben Sie noch Hoffnung? Nee, eigentlich nicht mehr. Aber wenn Sie mich wirklich lange genug quälen, sage ich Ihnen: Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das Pariser Abkommen noch umzusetzen, liegt vielleicht bei zehn Prozent."

Es bleibt für die Schadensbegrenzung und das Stoppen der Erwärmung des Planeten nur noch ein kleiner Spielraum übrig. Sofortiges Handeln ist unbedingt nötig. Das Moment Magazin postete kürzlich folgende Grafik, die zeigt, dass wir den Kurs noch nicht umfassend korrigiert haben:

Die nächsten 7 Jahre sind entscheidend

Als öffentliche Erinnerung für die nötige Kurskorrektur wurde in New York eine "Klima-Uhr" installiert, die anzeigt wie viel Jahre noch bleiben, bis die Menschheit keine Emissionen mehr in die Atmosphäre entlassen darf. (Weil das errechnete CO2/Treibhausgas-Budget für die maximale Erwärmung vom Pariser Klimaziel 1,5 Grad dann aufgebraucht ist). Diese Uhr steht derzeit bei knapp über 7 Jahren, also 2027 (Stand 27.09.2020):

Fridays For Future will nicht locker lassen

Klingt alles düster? Ist es. Aber die Menschheit hat wahnsinnig krasse Dinge geschafft, Atomkriege verhindert, das Ozonloch bekämpft, die Sklaverei verboten, Menschenrechte und Gleichberechtigung etabliert, ist in den Weltall geflogen, hat technologisch und sozial wahnsinnige Fortschritte gemacht, stets dazu gelernt und sich immer wieder neu hinterfragt und neu erfunden mit jeder Generation. Und es gibt ja durchaus viele positive Entwicklungen: Seit Anfang der 1990er-Jahre wurden mehrere zehntausend Windenergieanlagen in Deutschland installiert laut Umweltbundesamt ( Quelle), der Ausbau von Erneuerbaren Energiequellen findet derzeit weltweit statt, es gibt ein gesellschaftliches Momentum für den Kampf gegen die Klimakatastrophe. Und so verkündete Luisa Neubauer von Fridays For Future Deutschland beim Klimastreik am 25.9.2020, auch weiterhin nicht locker zu lassen:

Deine Handlungsmöglichkeiten

Was du sofort tun kannst? Bleibe informiert, bilde dich selbst weiter, unterstütze Initiativen, mach Druck auf Politik und Entscheidungsträger:innen, triff möglichst bewusste Konsum- und Alltagsentscheidungen, check deine finanziellen Handlungsmöglichkeiten (nachhaltiges Bankkonto, Stromanbieter, etc.); misch dich ein, wenn es deine persönlichen Ressourcen zulassen.

Aber musst du alles alleine lösen? Nein. Die Bewegung Fridays For Future sieht in politischen Entscheidungen den größten Hebel für Veränderung, die Klimakrise kann laut FFF Deutschland nicht ausschließlich von Einzelpersonen im Alltag gelöst werden (Quelle: Fridays For Future - Forderungen FAQ):

„Jede*r von uns kann seine*ihre Emissionen nur zum Teil selbst reduzieren, da wir auf viele Prozesse keinen Einfluss und oft auch nicht alle nötigen Informationen dazu haben. Die Politik muss den nötigen Rahmen schaffen, damit jede*r Einzelne überhaupt klimaneutral leben und handeln kann!"

👉 Informiert bleiben

Informiert bleiben kannst du zum Beispiel über folgende Kanäle:

Instagram: Greta Thunberg, Luisa Neubauer, Leonie Bremer, FridaysForFutureDE, GermanZero, FridaysForFutureAT, FridaysForFutureCH, NachhaltigKritisch, Der Graslutscher // Twitter: KlimaVorAcht, Jumpsteady, Maja Göpel, She Drives Mobility, Özden Terli, Rico Grimm // YouTube: Scientists For Future, MaiLab // & viele, viele mehr.

👉 Educate yourself

Einen längeren Vortrag zum Thema Klimakrise findest du u.a. hier:

▶️ Will Steffen - Die große Wende voraus
Warum ist 2020 ein entscheidendes Jahr in der #Klimakrise? Die #GroßeWendeVoraus gibt Antworten darauf. Ein beeindruckender Filmvortrag von Professor Will Steffen über die Tragweite und Dringlichkeit des #Klimawandels.

👉 Mentale Gesundheit

Tipps für die mentale Gesundheit in Zeiten der Klimakrise: 🧘 KlimaAngst @ Instagram

„Hoffnung ist nicht die Überzeugung, dass etwas gut ausgeht,
sondern die Gewissheit, dass etwas Sinn hat, egal wie es ausgeht"
- Vaclav Havel, Quelle: Instagram-Post von @klimaangst

⚠️ Dieser Artikel wurde noch nicht von fachkundigen Personen gefeedbacked, ggf. können noch inhaltliche Fehler enthalten sein. Feedback ist gerne gesehen! 👉 Insta-DM, Twitter-DM, E-Mail: anfragen@matthias-andrasch.de.

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Ja, ich weiß. Eigentlich ist jetzt Feierabend, Mittagspause, Wochenende oder du sitzt gerade mit dem Smartphone auf Toilette. Und eigentlich willst du einfach mal den Kopf ausmachen. Schule, Ausbildung, Studium, Bewerbungen oder dein Job sind schon nervig genug und Spaß am Leben muss ja auch irgendwie drin sein.

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Möglicher Einsatz z. B. Methodenkompetenz schulen am inhaltlichen Beispiel.
Quelle: Prof. Reinhold Leinfelder, FU Berlin

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Warum jetzt häufiger Starkregen & Extremhitze?

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Warum jetzt häufiger Starkregen & Extremhitze?

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Das Magazin Quarks & Co. erklärt es kurz und prägnant. Geeignet als Material für die Schüler*innen.

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(1/6) Extremer Starkregen wird leider in Zukunft immer häufiger auftreten, sagen @rahmstorf und andere Forschende seit Jahren. Warum? Ein Thread.

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(1/6) Extremer Starkregen wird leider in Zukunft immer häufiger auftreten, sagen @rahmstorf und andere Forschende seit Jahren. Warum? Ein Thread. https://t.co/22HjhrPEXh

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(1/6) Extremer Starkregen wird leider in Zukunft immer häufiger auftreten, sagen @rahmstorf und andere Forschende seit Jahren. Warum? Ein Thread. https://t.co/22HjhrPEXh

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(1/6) Extremer Starkregen wird leider in Zukunft immer häufiger auftreten, sagen @rahmstorf und andere Forschende seit Jahren. Warum? Ein Thread. https://t.co/22HjhrPEXh

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(1/6) Extremer Starkregen wird leider in Zukunft immer häufiger auftreten, sagen @rahmstorf und andere Forschende seit Jahren. Warum? Ein Thread.

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Virtuelle Exkursion in Europas größten Hafen: Rotterdam

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Virtuelle Exkursion in Europas größten Hafen: Rotterdam

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... und seinen städtischen Wirtschaftsraum: Schülerinnen und Schüler untersuchen Strukturwandel und Standorttransformation: Wie nachhaltig kann ein Welthafen sein? Ist Rotterdam ein Modell für Resilienz?

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Niets van de haven missen nu je iets meer thuis zit? Dat kan! Ook vanuit huis valt er genoeg te beleven.
Neem een kijkje in de haven

Vanuit je luie stoel in de gaten houden welke schepen er door de Rotterdamse haven varen? Dat kan! In het havengebied vind je meer dan 10 webcams. Van het uiterste westelijke puntje van het havengebied, tot voorbij de Van Brienenoordbrug.

Via Port360 maak je een virtuele tour door de Rotterdamse haven. Bekijk ruim 42 kilometer aan havengebied middels 15 unieke 360 graden luchtfoto's.

RTV Rijnmond volgde vanaf 2008 de aanleg van Maasvlakte 2 en zond in 2012 en 2013 de serie 'MV2 Boven Water' uit met presentator Sebastiaan Labrie. Op ons YouTube-kanaal vind je de afleveringen terug, leuk om nog eens terug te kijken nu we weer even meer thuiszitten.

Volg je favoriete schip

Bekijk de geplande scheepsbezoeken van de zeeschepen in de haven van Rotterdam. Je vindt de verwachte schepen, schepen in de haven en vertrekkende schepen.

En er zijn nog meer websites die scheepsposities en bestemmingen bijhouden. Via bijvoorbeeld marinetraffic.com, myshiptracking.com of vesselfinder.com kun je precies zien waar jouw favoriete schip is.

Knutsel en kleur erop los

Met dit technische proefje ontdek je welk zand gebruikt is voor de aanleg van de Maasvlakte en waarom het zand op z'n plaats blijft liggen. Ga zelf aan de slag met knikkers en suikerklontjes.

Zin om een havenplaat in te kleuren? Wat dacht je van een containerschip, een sleephopperzuiger of een mammoet? Print jouw favoriet, pak je kleurpotloden en kleuren maar!

Op internet vind je ook heel veel knutselinspiratie. Zoek bijvoorbeeld eens op 'knutselen haven'. De ideeën vliegen je om je oren: een containerschip, een matroos van wc-rollen of maak zelf een memoryspel.

Toe aan een uitdaging? Waarom kies je niet voor een bouwplaat, te koop via bijvoorbeeld nautiek.nl of hobbyprof.nl? Van loodsboot tot binnenvaartschip, van SS Rotterdam tot Titanic.

Lekker (voor)lezen

Voor kinderen in de basisschoolleeftijd is het boek 'Het groot HavenABC' een aanrader. Van achterland tot zeeschip: Het groot HavenABC leert je alles over de haven.

Fred in de Haven, vanaf 5 jaar. Hond Fred is verdwaald en zoekt zijn baas. Tijdens zijn zoektocht komt hij in Rotterdam terecht en gaat aan de slag als waakhond bij een containerbedrijf. Deze en meer meer voorleestips vind je in de Havenkrant.

Voor thrillerschrijver Tjeerd Langstraat is de Rotterdamse haven een belangrijke inspiratiebron. Zijn boek 'Eeuwig donker' speelt zich dan ook af in Rotterdam. Twee rechercheurs doen onderzoek naar de gruwelijke moord op twee jonge loverboys.

Matthijs Dicke schreef een biografie over 'de laatste havenbaron' Jacques Schoufour. Het boek vertelt over de naoorlogse havenontwikkeling maar geeft ook een beeld van een rasondernemer.

Nog niet genoeg gekregen? Je blijft op de hoogte van alle havenontwikkelingen via onze social media-kanalen Facebook en Twitter, en via de Havenkrant online.

We vullen deze pagina regelmatig aan met nieuwe tips, dus kom gerust nog een keertje terug!

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Niets van de haven missen nu je iets meer thuis zit? Dat kan! Ook vanuit huis valt er genoeg te beleven. Neem een kijkje in de haven Vanuit je luie stoel in de gaten houden welke schepen er door de Rotterdamse haven varen? Dat kan!

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Initativen, Unternehmen und Netzwerke der sozial-ökologischen Transformation kartiert nach Regionen.

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von morgen - Alles Gute auf einer Karte - von morgen

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Die Karte von morgen ist eine interaktive Onlineplattform für Initiativen des Wandels und für nachhaltige Unternehmen. Auch als App für Android und IOS.

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Karte via https://i.redd.it/evnr7fkfmih51.png

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Bericht über ein städtebauliches Konzept zur Abfederung veränderter Niederschläge.

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Wohnen in der Klimakrise: Die Wohnungsfrage als ökologische Frage

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Wohnen in der Klimakrise: Die Wohnungsfrage als ökologische Frage

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Neun Artikel zum Thema.

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Diese Debatte ist am 24.04.2020 in Bd. 8, Nr. 1/2 (2020) erschienen.
Die Debatte widmet sich dem Zusammenhang von sozialer und ökologischer Wohnungsfrage. Einem offenen Aufruf zur Einreichung von Beiträgen von Lisa Vollmer und Boris Michel sind erfreulich viele Wissenschaftler_innen und Aktivist_innen nachgekommen. Andreas Koch verweist darauf, dass die ökologische Frage nur im Rahmen einer politischen Ökologie zu verstehen ist, die die Kommodifizierung des Wohnens und die Dominanz bürgerlicher Wohnideale gleichermaßen konzeptualisiert. Lukas Häfner beschäftigt sich mit der Flächeninanspruchnahme als ökologischem Aspekt der Wohnungsfrage, der eng mit Einkommenshöhen und Wohnformen und damit sozialen Aspekten der Wohnungsfrage zusammenhängt. Auch Anton Brokow-Loga und Miriam Neßler stellen die Frage nach Flächengerechtigkeit als Frage der Verteilung von Wohnflächen. Michael Mießner und Michael Naumann zeigen, dass sich die Wohnungsfrage nicht nur in der Stadt stellt, sondern auch auf dem Land. Sie schlagen daher mögliche Themen einer kritischen Landforschung vor. Katrin Großmann erläutert, wie das ökologische Instrument der energetischen Modernisierung in seiner Ausgestaltung in Deutschland zu residentieller Segregation beiträgt. Sören Weißermel und Rainer Wehrhahn zeigen am Beispiel des einkommensschwachen Stadtteils Gaarden in Kiel die Konfliktfelder, die durch eine stadtpolitisch motivierte, aber privatwirtschaftlich umzusetzende energetische Sanierung entstehen. Klaus Geiselhart beschreibt anhand von konkreten Neubauprojekten in München einige Versuche, soziale und ökologische Ansprüche an das Wohnen zu integrieren. Bernhard Hohmann, Thomas Höflehner und Andrea Jany diskutieren ein Projekt, das unterschiedliche Akteure der Stadt Graz zusammenbringt, um Dachgärten als Gegenmittel zu Flächenversiegelung und Flächenkonkurrenz auf Wohngebäuden, aber auch für Gemeinschaftszwecke zu realisieren. Schließlich stellt Marc Amann das geplante Wohnprojekt „Neustart Tübingen" vor, in dem eine ganze Nachbarschaft entstehen soll, die sozialen und ökologischen Idealen des Wohnens verpflichtet ist. So ist eine breite Palette unterschiedlicher Aspekte der ökologisch und sozial gedachten Wohnungsfrage zusammengekommen. Wir freuen uns darauf, diese Aspekte in künftigen Ausgaben zu ergänzen und in einer Replik zusammen zu binden. Weitere Einreichungen sind also herzlich willkommen.

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Wohnen in der Klimakrise. Die Wohnungsfrage als ökologische Frage

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Diese Debatte ist am 24.04.2020 in Bd. 8, Nr. 1/2 (2020) erschienen. Die Debatte widmet sich dem Zusammenhang von sozialer und ökologischer Wohnungsfrage. Einem offenen Aufruf zur Einreichung von Beiträgen von Lisa Vollmer und Boris Michel sind erfreulich viele Wissenschaftler_innen und Aktivist_innen nachgekommen.

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Wohnen in der Klimakrise: Die Wohnungsfrage als ökologische Frage

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Wohnen in der Klimakrise: Die Wohnungsfrage als ökologische Frage

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Neun Artikel zum Thema.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Diese Debatte ist am 24.04.2020 in Bd. 8, Nr. 1/2 (2020) erschienen.
Die Debatte widmet sich dem Zusammenhang von sozialer und ökologischer Wohnungsfrage. Einem offenen Aufruf zur Einreichung von Beiträgen von Lisa Vollmer und Boris Michel sind erfreulich viele Wissenschaftler_innen und Aktivist_innen nachgekommen. Andreas Koch verweist darauf, dass die ökologische Frage nur im Rahmen einer politischen Ökologie zu verstehen ist, die die Kommodifizierung des Wohnens und die Dominanz bürgerlicher Wohnideale gleichermaßen konzeptualisiert. Lukas Häfner beschäftigt sich mit der Flächeninanspruchnahme als ökologischem Aspekt der Wohnungsfrage, der eng mit Einkommenshöhen und Wohnformen und damit sozialen Aspekten der Wohnungsfrage zusammenhängt. Auch Anton Brokow-Loga und Miriam Neßler stellen die Frage nach Flächengerechtigkeit als Frage der Verteilung von Wohnflächen. Michael Mießner und Michael Naumann zeigen, dass sich die Wohnungsfrage nicht nur in der Stadt stellt, sondern auch auf dem Land. Sie schlagen daher mögliche Themen einer kritischen Landforschung vor. Katrin Großmann erläutert, wie das ökologische Instrument der energetischen Modernisierung in seiner Ausgestaltung in Deutschland zu residentieller Segregation beiträgt. Sören Weißermel und Rainer Wehrhahn zeigen am Beispiel des einkommensschwachen Stadtteils Gaarden in Kiel die Konfliktfelder, die durch eine stadtpolitisch motivierte, aber privatwirtschaftlich umzusetzende energetische Sanierung entstehen. Klaus Geiselhart beschreibt anhand von konkreten Neubauprojekten in München einige Versuche, soziale und ökologische Ansprüche an das Wohnen zu integrieren. Bernhard Hohmann, Thomas Höflehner und Andrea Jany diskutieren ein Projekt, das unterschiedliche Akteure der Stadt Graz zusammenbringt, um Dachgärten als Gegenmittel zu Flächenversiegelung und Flächenkonkurrenz auf Wohngebäuden, aber auch für Gemeinschaftszwecke zu realisieren. Schließlich stellt Marc Amann das geplante Wohnprojekt „Neustart Tübingen" vor, in dem eine ganze Nachbarschaft entstehen soll, die sozialen und ökologischen Idealen des Wohnens verpflichtet ist. So ist eine breite Palette unterschiedlicher Aspekte der ökologisch und sozial gedachten Wohnungsfrage zusammengekommen. Wir freuen uns darauf, diese Aspekte in künftigen Ausgaben zu ergänzen und in einer Replik zusammen zu binden. Weitere Einreichungen sind also herzlich willkommen.

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
Wohnen in der Klimakrise. Die Wohnungsfrage als ökologische Frage

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Diese Debatte ist am 24.04.2020 in Bd. 8, Nr. 1/2 (2020) erschienen. Die Debatte widmet sich dem Zusammenhang von sozialer und ökologischer Wohnungsfrage. Einem offenen Aufruf zur Einreichung von Beiträgen von Lisa Vollmer und Boris Michel sind erfreulich viele Wissenschaftler_innen und Aktivist_innen nachgekommen.

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COVID-19 aus Perspektive des Globalen Südens

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COVID-19 aus Perspektive des Globalen Südens

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Vergleich (engl.) zwischen den Implikationen der Ebola-19-Epidemie und der COVID-Pandemie legt interessante Aspekte von "Entwicklung" offen.

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Debating Ideas is a new section that aims to reflect the values and editorial ethos of the African Arguments book series, publishing engaged, often radical, scholarship, original and activist writing from within the African continent and beyond. It will offer debates and engagements, contexts and controversies, and reviews and responses flowing from the African Arguments books.

In February 2020, we were still following the case numbers of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in North Kivu, Eastern Congo, which by then were finally coming down. At the same time, we were also following the news of the Covid-19 pandemic which had spread within China and thereafter in Europe and in the US. By then, most African governments, just as those in Europe or the US weeks before, were still seeing it as a distant problem and no measures had been taken in preparation.

On March 3, the last patient with the Ebola was discharged in North Kivu Province, the epidemic having lasted more than two years. On March 10, the first case of Covid-19 was confirmed in Kinshasa. It took two weeks for the authorities to take a firm decision to lock down the city, prohibit mobility between the capital and other provinces, and ban access to Congolese territory for any international flight. Panic set in for most Congolese citizens who felt they had never experienced such a global crisis before.

Moving from one crisis to the next raises the question: what can be learned from the Ebola epidemic for the Covid-19 pandemic? Are inhabitants of the most affected regions better prepared for Covid-19? Will the lessons learnt from the Ebola epidemic help citizens in the entire country to adapt to the new pandemic too? What are the similarities and differences between these two epidemics or pandemic?

We stress that such comparisons are crucial to anticipate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country and through which measures it can be averted. However, the remarkable speed of the Covid-19 pandemic, which seems to outpace its own future, makes it almost impossible to anticipate with certainty what might come next. In fact, this moment of uncertainty in the Covid-19 pandemic reminds us of the many unexpected developments in the Ebola epidemics - most notability the emergence of mistrust - for which the emergency response was not fully prepared. As we write this commentary, a new EVD death has been reported in North Kivu province after slightly more than 20 days. Such flare-ups are anticipated. They nonetheless raise the question of whether more cases will emerge and if the emergency response still passes the test of being trusted, which it eventually earned, in order to contain this flare-up quickly.

The most important comparisons, as we maintain in this commentary, are those comparisons that citizens themselves do in order to assess the government's response, make sense of the situation, and act accordingly. One of the crucial insights we gained from our recently conducted research project 'Humanizing the design of the Ebola response in eastern DRC' (August 2019-January 2020; funded by the R2HC Elhra programme) is the following: there is a tendency in social science research during humanitarian crises to adopt the perspectives and terminologies of public health interventions to assess citizens' behaviours and perceptions, and how they might be corrected. This tendency blatantly ignores the fact that those targeted by the emergency response also evaluate and assess the rationality of public health measures. In this respect, mistrust is not only rooted in traditional beliefs or conspiracy theory but is also formed by citizens' assessment of the rationality of the emergency response to the EVD epidemic. Taking these comparisons and assessments seriously is crucial for understanding to what extent people will adapt to the current Covid-19 pandemic.

Hence for this piece we draw on a series of interviews conducted for the radio station of the Pole Institute, 'Pole FM radio', in which we asked residents in the two Eastern Congolese cities Goma and Beni how they are preparing to protect themselves against Covid-19. The answers illuminate how the experience of living through the EVD epidemic shapes individuals' and communities' responses to Covid-19.

A young woman, for instance, who works as a receptionist in a local hotel told us:

' With Coronavirus, I am much more alert than with Ebola. At my workplace, we have increased basic hygiene measures taken against Ebola fivefold. We learned that Corona is more virulent. So, the situation we have experienced with Ebola has allowed us to be much more careful and conscientious in the event of an epidemic. '

A similar comparison is provided by a vendor in Himbi district of Goma who told us that in retail outlets and pharmaceutical stores, disinfectant gels have become rare; everyone wants to get them to ensure their personal hygiene. As he explained:

' When Ebola started, the sale of disinfectant products was very low, we hardly sold them. But when the epidemic worsened, we sold them more and more, but we had never reached the level of sale we are reaching now since the announcement of the Corona virus in Kinshasa. Our stocks are empty and we do not hesitate to replenish them again. This really proves that Ebola has helped us a lot to realise the importance of protecting ourselves by disinfecting our hands and our environment. '

As these two accounts suggest, for residents in Goma, Covid-19 poses a greater threat than EVD. In fact, in the case of Covid-19, citizens have not waited for funding from NGOs to raise awareness or take important preventative measures. Head teachers decided to close their schools even before the government officially declared that all public spaces should be closed down and most NGOs in Goma bought masks and distributed them to their staff a week before the state of emergency and the closure of the borders on March, 24. People are painfully aware that Covid-19 response measures, like hand washing, self-isolation, or social distancing presume a working infrastructure that ensures the availability of water, electricity, and, more importantly, food supplies. Hence, it is simply not possible to implement these measures to the same degree in the Democratic Republic of Congo as in Europe since access to basic services is still poor. The faster this pandemic and the restrictions are over, the better.

Most respondents agree that the transmission of Covid-19 will be far more difficult to control and contain than in the case of the EVD epidemic and that Covid-19 poses a greater risk of spreading quickly over the entire country. Indeed, at this very moment, the cases have a greater geographical span than was the case in the recent and past Ebola epidemics in the country. After the first Covid-19 cases in Kinshasa, six more cases were detected in Beni and in Goma, making the people aware of the highly dynamic spatial spread compared to the Ebola epidemic.

This raises an another important question, as Paul Richards has been pointing out for the case of Sierra Leone: to what extent can the capacities of resilience and innovation that emerged out of the creative adaptation to the Ebola epidemic in North Kivu and Ituri provinces inform the country-wide response to the Covid-19 pandemic?

On the institutional level, the national government has rapidly put systems in place to control travellers and promote hand washing, especially at the border, in the airports, etc. Moreover, the laboratories established during the EVD epidemic are now used for testing of Covid-19. It is planned that Covid-19 screening will soon become possible in the laboratories of Goma and Lubumbashi. Such measures leave the impression that citizens and authorities know the mechanisms they learned from the Ebola epidemic. So far, people testing positive for Covid-19 are put under quarantine without any serious contestation from communities, unlike during the Ebola epidemic. Therefore, one of the most relevant experiences the country learned from the Ebola outbreak is the targeted quarantining of all categories of Covid-19 patients. Furthermore, there seems to be a fairly strong social, administrative, health, political and epidemiological memory that can allow the country to fight against Covid-19. In particular the leadership of the epidemiologist Professor Jean-Jacques Muyembe, who was in charge of the Ebola response and who is now in charge of Covid-19 measures, seems to contribute significantly to lessen the panic of citizens.

Nonetheless, and this is another central insight from our research on the EVD epidemic, it is also crucial to situate the above-mentioned comparisons between EVD and Covid-19. As our interlocutors told us during the research: 'Chaque cas, chaque village a ses réalités'. Each case, family, or village has its own reality. Epidemics are contingent upon a multiplicity of factors, which at times confront the emergency response with unexpected challenges. It is crucial to note that the Ebola epidemic was concentrated in North Kivu province and Ituri province, which in everyday parlance is called the Greater North ('le Grand Nord'). Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, had only one EVD case. More importantly it has been relatively stable compared to the epicentres of the EVD epidemic, where an ongoing war was palpably inhibiting the emergency response. The national capital, Kinshasa, is 1,700 kilometres and politically even further away from the epicentres of the Ebola epidemic.

Hence, asked if people in Beni would take the measures for Covid-19 seriously after having lived through the Ebola epidemic, a medical doctor, with whom we worked during the Ebola epidemic, told us that:

' because the area has been affected by Ebola it has certain advantages over other unaffected areas. The population is used to check points and the majority of households have handwashing facilities, which they use correctly. At the entrance of public places, you can find hand washing devices and thermo flashes to take the temperature. This is a significant achievement for the people of Beni. So, the population is already prepared as far as these measures to limit contamination are concerned.'

Another research informant from the local association of taxi drivers told us that they had already held meetings to develop guidelines for all taxi drivers to implement the recommended protection measures.

' Although this is a financial loss for us, we quickly became aware of the risk, and no longer want to experience the same drama. ... We can say that the population of Beni will not mount resistance to Corona [protection measures], thanks to the strong sensitisations to which it was exposed during the epidemic of the Ebola Virus Disease. Discussions with these populations in Beni help to understand how Ebola experience has contributed to the production of knowledge on serious diseases and how it can spread in the community. With this new acquired knowledge, the population is much more proactive, and more able and willing than before to prevent, manage and avoid the disease.'

These accounts suggest that the Ebola epidemic has indeed raised awareness and probably also compliance. The last comment about not wanting to experience 'the same drama' again makes another crucial point. A comparison of EVD and Covid-19 has to consider that the history of the EVD epidemic in this region is also a history of unpreparedness shaped by a multiplicity of factors: cancelled elections, attacks by armed groups, deteriorated state-society relations and political marginalisation. In total, the EVD epidemic lasted for more than two years despite the availability of effective treatment and vaccines. After the first Ebola case was confirmed in August 2018 and the emergency response was rolled out, the relationship between those mounting the response and the communities deteriorated steadily fostering mistrust and even violent resistance. We regularly heard extreme comments like 'Ebola does not exist, it is only an invention to make money from Western people'; 'Ebola is business', 'we will not wash our hands and we will not die from it'; or 'you who believe it, do it.' These sentences had become slogans in the streets, public places and some debates. Mistrust and resistance reduced from August 2019 onwards after the emergency response started to learn to adapt to the communities too and started to take seriously people's expectations of fair and decent treatment. For example, accommodating people's expectations in the area of staff recruitment and payment was crucial to address the conviction that Ebola is nothing more than business. Creative adaptations like the decentralisation of care and treatment were also initiated to reduce mistrust (Shuchman 2019; Park et al. 2020). However, these adaptations came late and only after resistance and mistrust had become rampant.

In this regard we note a certain discord in the way in which information on Coronavirus is being disseminated by political and health authorities in the country, such that once again the population starts to doubt the information provided by these authorities. Moreover, in the face of inconsistencies in communication, which bring the whole response system into disrepute, a very large part of the population will search for other sources of information, with the risk of a high level of disinformation which in turn might exacerbate panic among the people. Preventing this panic requires trust, especially in those who have the responsibility of informing the population and responding to the crisis. So far it does not look bad in Congo, but everything depends on contingent events.

During the Ebola epidemic, both international and Congolese experts realised quite late that the dominant approach in biomedicine, the transfer of medical knowledge and instructions for action, was not sufficient to create trust. The three dynamics that made it difficult to control the Ebola outbreak in North Kivu are also crucial for the Covid-19 response: the undersupply of medicines for other diseases, the problematic practice of centralised and quarantine-oriented treatment centres that hindered social contact and thus the flow of communication, and the population's long and existential experience of state neglect and violence. Addressing these problems means creating trust by taking both people's assessment of the rationality of the emergency response and their multiple realities seriously.
References
Park, S.-J., Morisho, N., Muhindo, K.W., Anoko, J., Gobat, N., Brown, H. and Borchert, M., 2020, 'What do adaptations tell us about the production of trust? Shifting the "burden of change" from people to the response', Humanitarian Exchange: Special Feature Responding to Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo 22: 24-26.

Shuchman, M., 2019, 'NGOs push for decentralised Ebola treatment in Dr Congo', The Lancet 393: 2110-11.

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Same but Different? A Comparison of Ebola Virus Disease and Covid-19 After the Ebola Epidemic in Eastern DRC (2018-20) | African Arguments

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Debating Ideas is a new section that aims to reflect the values and editorial ethos of the African Arguments book series, publishing engaged, often radical, scholarship, original and activist writing from within the African continent and beyond. It will offer debates and engagements, contexts and controversies, and reviews and responses flowing from the African Arguments books.

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Nomothetische Grundlagen für Strukturen und funktionale Beziehungen von Wirtschaft/Handel und Verkehrsmitteln, Transportrouten, Mobilität etc. (engl.).

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The Geography of Transport Systems | The spatial organization of transportation and mobility

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Overview

The mobility of passengers and freight is fundamental to economic and social activities such as commuting, manufacturing, distributing goods, or supplying energy. Each movement has a purpose, an origin, a potential set of intermediate locations, and a destination. Mobility is supported and driven by transport systems composed of infrastructures, modes, and terminals. They enable individuals, institutions, corporations, regions, and nations to interact and undertake economic, social, cultural, or political activities. Understanding how mobility is linked with the geography of transportation is the primary purpose of this textbook.

The Geography of Transport Systems offers a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the field with a broad overview of its concepts, methods, and areas of application. This material is provided to practitioners, policymakers, educators, researchers, students, and individual learners and includes a wide variety of media elements such as maps, figures, and PowerPoint presentations.

Contents

The textbook is divided into twelve chapters. The first ten chapters cover a specific conceptual dimension of transport geography, such as networks, modes, terminals, and urban transportation. In addition to these conventional topics, emerging issues such as globalization, supply chain management, information technologies, energy, and the environment are also thoroughly discussed.

Since transport is a field of application, the use of methodologies is particularly relevant to assist transport operators in allocating their resources (investments, infrastructure, vehicles) or influencing public policy. Appendix A focuses on qualitative and quantitative methodologies linked with transport geography, such as accessibility, spatial interactions, and graph theory. The convergence between methodologies and information technologies has led to many new analytical opportunities, notably with geographic information systems for transportation (GIS-T).

Transportation is a very active field of investigation and application to real-world issues, which are covered in Appendix B.

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Backlink and guest post requests are ignored. This web site is an academic, neutral, and reliable source of information, not a marketing tool.

CONSULTANTS: SEE NOTICE BELOW.

PUBLISHERS: Permission requests to reproduce published materials have become abusive as publishers often ask for material (e.g. figures, maps, charts) to be granted unlimited use, in any language, on any media, for an unlimited amount of time and to have to right to grant third parties (anyone) to use the material. This means that such permissions ask the author to give his work away to the publisher to do as it pleases. Therefore, I rarely grant permission to reproduce my material. If I do, it is for a single-use and without the right for third-party use.

Permission to use any graphic material herein in any form of publication, such as an article, a book, or a conference presentation, on any media must be requested before use.

Information cited from this web site should be referred as: Rodrigue, J-P (2020), The Geography of Transport Systems, Fifth Edition, New York: Routledge.

Inquiries: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue.

Notice To Consultants

Over the years, some of the contents of this website have been plagiarized, often without attribution, by consultants (and professionals) in reports and presentations covering various sectors of the transport industry. Maps and figures have been a particular target. This does involve not only small firms or individual consultants but also large globally recognized firms. This is highly unethical since it involves stealing someone else's work while being remunerated. A common practice in the consulting industry is to steal and adapt the work of academics and present it as original material. Consultants, please keep in mind the following:

I usually do not provide interviews and advice unless compensated. The only exception is for the press.

By default, NONE of the graphic material on this web site can be used for commercial purposes without my consent.

Instances of plagiarism will be reported to clients and supervisors.

Even if plagiarism is done for internal or confidential reports, this does not remove the risk of detection. I am often asked to act as a third-party reviewer for consulting reports through non-disclosure agreements. Also, on some occasions, clients will release elements of these reports to the public, thinking that they are original work.

Consultants wishing to use some graphic elements contained in this web site, please contact me. For a reasonable fee, I can provide customized maps and graphics for unlimited use (I am also a consultant).

On some occasions (e.g. humanitarian work, NGOs, charitable organizations), the use of some graphic elements can be authorized at no charge.

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The mobility of passengers and freight is fundamental to economic and social activities such as commuting, manufacturing, distributing goods, or supplying energy. Each movement has a purpose, an origin, a potential set of intermediate locations, and a destination. Mobility is supported and driven by transport systems composed of infrastructures, modes, and terminals.

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Forschungsprojekte der Universitäten Leide, Delft und Rotterdam zur Standorttransformation europäischer Hafenstädte. Im Aufbau.

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Current and upcoming issues discussed by our PortCityFutures members and relations

This blog is a communal effort of the PortCityFutures members. It displays different types of content, such as reviews of articles, opinionated pieces, reactions on current events and many more. Most articles are co-written to ensure the incorporation of knowledge from different backgrounds and disciplines. Enjoy reading!

Cultural Anthropology, Infrastructures and Envisioning Futures

This blog was originally posted on the leidenantropologyblog of CADS.
Port City Regions are global hubs which invite anthropologists, planners, geographers, and architects to rethink disciplinary foundations, interdisciplinary collaborations and future-making, as Sabine Luning, Andrew Littlejohn, and Carola Hein explain.
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Mapping Maritime Mindsets: Deep Maps from Inspiration to Feasibility

9 Nov 2020
Thomas van den Brink

Port cities have a certain ambiance, a culture that makes them different from other cities. This is embedded in tangible elements like ships, quays, waterfronts and warehouses, as well as in immaterial elements like language, myths, rituals, images, texts, sounds, and architectural form. Capturing this multiplicity, however, is difficult.
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Port Cities and Crisis: Reflections on What COVID-19 Revealed

2 Nov 2020
By Josef Konvitz

It is commonplace to say that crises reveal latent strengths and weaknesses. When the COVID-19 epidemic of 2020 hit, economies had barely returned to their pre-2008 level, meaning a net loss of several years of growth. Shipping is responsible for most of the world's trade, yet the growth of world trade, usually a leading indicator, was already lagging behind economic growth. Since circa 1990, probably due to climate change, natural catastrophes in coastal cities and regions have increased in cost and intensity. The worst is yet to come: rising sea levels affect nearly 1 billion people. We like to say that the weather is unpredictable, but now it seems as if forecasting the planet's future on the basis of global warming is less risky than predicting when international trade and travel will return to 2019 levels. Port cities face two different time-lines: one short-term, economic, the other medium-to-long term, environmental. Win-win solutions good for both will be rare.
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The Role of Port City Images in the Development of Maritime Mental Maps

26 Oct 2020
Winnie Goldsteen

Port cities have been a source of inspiration for painters through time. The dynamic life and diversity within these cities has sparked the imagination of artists and has resulted in a large number of port-related imagery like paintings and photographs. These images often focus on the waterfront where the city and water connect, and on port infrastructures representing maritime practices. Paintings with such a perspective are important pieces in collections of maritime museums worldwide.
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Oil in Oil (and Other Art Media): Painting the Petroleum Port

20 Oct 2020
Carola Hein
From the 1850s onward, petroleum took the world by storm. Following industrial drilling in Canada and North America in 1858 and 1859; in the early decades, it was particularly popular as lighting oil. Whereas the oil industry depends on water both for the refining process and for transportation, many early oil companies sited petroleum storage and refineries near rivers and in port cities. Old and new ports - Philadelphia, Rotterdam, Dunkirk, Abadan - offered ideal conditions for storage and refining, and were well located to serve as hubs in the emerging global network of oil. Artists noticed the new structures, and their admiration and curiosity were visible in their artwork. Heads of corporations and public leaders used the depictions for promotion, and perhaps decorated their offices with them.
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Taking Sustainable Port Development Seriously: Serious Gaming in the Port of Rotterdam

21 Sep 2020
Maurice Jansen

Screenshot of Port Constructor

Many ports in the world are pivots of social dilemmas, such as coastal protection versus port expansion, attractive urban housing versus port activities, jobs versus automation, fossil versus renewable energy, and logistics efficiency versus strict border control. Such dilemmas can easily lead to conflicts if not managed well. In a mature port cluster, conflicting interests are usually accommodated by a settlement of differences, which is the outcome of a negotiation process. This approach suggests that the quality of cluster performance is a product of a zero-sum game - the gain for one goes at the expense of the other - or even a negative-sum game, when parties cannot come to an agreement at all. The biggest challenge of the 21st century is the development and implementation of methods that at the same time strengthen the economy and improve the environment, while making optimal use of the available space for port activities. One of these methods is serious gaming, which allows for better understanding of social dilemmas and mechanisms that drive decision making behaviour.
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The Color of Protection: Greening Port Cities in an Era of Rising Tides

7 Sep 2020
Andrew Littlejohn Ports, and their neighboring cities, are dense concatenations of infrastructures. Many of these are things enabling other things to move. Ships bear their loads through bays and, when heading inland, canals; at docks, stevedores load the wares onto lorries, which carry them along roads and across bridges; and all the while, pipes channel water, oil, or gas to and from facilities. Indeed, from a certain point of view these ports themselves appear infrastructures. They are nodes through which many things we use must pass on their way from sea to land; the connections established by these flows make such interior areas what they are. However, as noted in our recent call for papers, port cities also host another type of infrastructure. These are things not facilitating flows inland but preventing them, like seawalls, dikes, and other coastal defense structures. The latter aim, as I have written about previously (Littlejohn 2020), to 'saturate' space, meaning ensure control by confining all parts and parties to their 'proper' places (most notably the sea and rivers, which must be kept separate from the land).
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Writing Port Cities

19 Aug 2020
Carola Hein

This blog post was written for the PORTUS online magazine of RETE
In Invisible Cities, Italo Calvino famously imagined Marco Polo describing imaginary cities to Kublai Khan. Reflecting on his home city of Venice, he "put together, piece by piece, the perfect city," a city that is "discontinuous in space and time" [1]. The image of the contemporary port city similarly emerges from multiple pieces: port authorities promote the port's efficiency and future potential; local governments advertise the heritage value of historical waterfronts and old portequipment as part of urban sustainability in all its facets; and artists and the general public write up and photograph these places. Collectively, these multiple groups create locality-specific port cultures across time.
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Beirut Blast: A port city in crisis

On 4 th of August 2020, the Lebanese capital and port city, Beirut, was rocked by a massive explosion that has killed hundreds and injured thousands more, ravaging the heart of the city's nearby downtown business district and neighbouring housing areas, where more than 750,000 people live. The waterfront neighbourhood and a number of dense residential neighbourhoods in the city's eastern part were essentially flattened. Lebanese Government officials believe that the blast was caused by around 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored near the city's cargo port without proper control for six years.
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The role of port cities in building a sustainable shared future: The Union for the Mediterranean Action Plan for Sustainable Urbanisation

The Mediterranean has long been at the heart of urban and rural development in all of its bordering countries. Sea-based trade and exchange has fuelled the development of numerous cities on the coast, on rivers and in the hinterland. Current challenges, from the climate crisis to migration, have put the Mediterranean again into focus. The COVID-19 crises shines additional light on the need for close collaboration in the fields of spatial and economic development, including port and port-related infrastructures. To provide a framework for sustainable and inclusive urban and regional development for the countries around the Mediterranean is the mission of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), an intergovernmental body that brings together all the countries of the European Union and 15 countries from the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. On 22 May 2017, at the Second Ministerial Conference of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) in Cairo, the UfM has enacted the "Union for the Mediterranean Urban Agenda" (UfM, 2017). Since 2018, a team from the Delft University of Technology (Roberto Rocco, Remon Rooij, Carola Hein) has elaborated an Action Plan for Sustainable Urbanisation around the Mediterranean for the UfM.
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The Post-Covid Time: A Post-Normal or Pre-Environmental Time?

The European Green Deal, discussed in a previous blog post, offers a wide range of climate policies and measures. However, due to the current pandemic, the European Commission and Parliament have delayed the Green Deal's adoption. As of July 2020, the main topic preoccupying national leaders is the economic renewal of the European Union and consensus over the economic Recovery Package. These discussions are complex given the timing, the economic situation and the lack of convergence between actors. Moreover, they obscure the legal necessity to act upon existing agreements, from local to supranational levels, to mitigate environmental damage.
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Mapping Maritime Mindsets: Towards a Shared Methodology

13 Jul 2020
Yvonne van Mil, Vincent Baptist, Thomas van den Brink, Tianchen Dai, Hilde Sennema

The PortCityFutures team aims to study port city ecosystems and the concepts of ' maritime mindsets, port city cultures and values ' from a variety of disciplinary angles. In our subgroup, consisting of four PhD researchers and one postdoc, we assess various mapping techniques (geo-spatial, socio-cultural and mental mapping) to move towards a shared research methodology. In a blog series under the title 'Mapping Maritime Mindsets', we will monitor, document and share our research progress on mapping port city regions, and especially address the theoretical and methodological issues that we face during the process. Moreover, we ask guest writers to reflect on related themes and projects.
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Port cities as hubs of diversity and inclusivity: The case of Rotterdam

7 Jul 2020
This blog post was written for the Leiden-Delft-Erasmus magazine June 2020

Port cities are a particular type of territory and are often long-standing examples of resilience, bringing opportunities, wealth, and innovation to their nations and their citizens. They have developed at the crossroads of international trade and commerce and the intersection of sea and land. Flows of people through trade and migration have played a key role in their spatial, social and cultural development. Their strong local identities share legacies of diversity and cosmopolitanism, but also of colonialism and segregation. The Qingjing Mosque in Quanzhou, Fujian speaks of the exchange between Arabia and China along the maritime silk road. Hanseatic cities stand as an example of far-flung networks with districts for foreign traders-think of the German merchants who established Bryggen, the German dock, in Bergen, now a UNESCO world heritage site.
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A Guggenheim effect for Rotterdam South side?

Rotterdam-Zuid, a district that has grown near and along with the port of Rotterdam on the South side of the River Maas, is lacking behind in terms of economic growth and prosperity compared to the city district on the North bank. In terms of unemployment, income levels, education performance, and value of real estate, Rotterdam-Zuid performs worse on key performance indicators than Rotterdam as a whole and scores lowest compared to Amsterdam, The Hague and Utrecht, the three other major cities in The Netherlands[1]. For years, a national pact of institutional stakeholders have made considerable efforts to improve this urban area and make it more livable and attractive. South is slowly but surely catching up, but arguably as a function of the development of the North ( EVR 2020). The river is not just a physical barrier, there are also institutional barriers. What can the port city of Rotterdam do to involve 'South' and to realize its ambition for an inclusive and productive city? Does the South need a Guggenheim effect - a major overhaul through large investments in culture, such as done in Bilbao with the Guggenheim Museum - to incentivize larger urban redevelopments?
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Researching Historical Entertainment Culture across Port Cities: Why 'Pleasurescapes' Matter for 'PortCityFutures'

'Where people have fun, encounter happens. Where encounters take place, change begins. Are pleasurescapes in port cities Europe's true driving forces after all?'
The tagline of the HERA-funded project ' Pleasurescapes: Port Cities' Transnational Forces of Integration ', which looks into entertainment spaces of European port cities throughout recent history, suggests that this research topic has been rather neglected up to now. The 'Pleasurescapes' project proposes to (re)discover this theme within a collaborative European framework. For a long time, historical research that dealt with port cities has favored traditional maritime-industrial perspectives in investigating these particular urban hubs. Over the past few years, however, more publications have come out that focus on the socio-cultural significance and legacies of ports, and that offer new, creative approaches to study port city identities and representations (see among others Van de Laar 2013; Mah 2014; Beaven, Bell and James 2016; and Milne 2016). The 'Pleasurescapes' project intends to further build on these research directions, while also incorporating a significant influence from the field of cultural studies, to put the spotlight on past public spaces of entertainment in European port cities.
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Measuring health in port cities

Urban public health is extraordinarily relevant currently, but health in port cities holds a critical place in history, too. Monitoring potential epidemics in port cities in the 19 th century was critical to long distance trade. In 1878 New Orleans a sailor "jumped quarantine," introduced yellow fever to the city, and sparked an epidemic killing thousands. Public health debates in port cities continue as shipping brings together people, goods, and foreign microbes. Air pollution from ships and industries affect the neighboring areas. The port city of Rotterdam is an ideal place to explore the impacts of port activities on health and environmental justice. Interdisciplinary research by Bachelor students at Leiden University College provides examples of methodologies and outcomes connected to health and inequality in Rotterdam.
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The Port City's 'Cine-scapes'

Cinema acts as a significant mediator between urban reality and the imaginary sensory experience of the fictive world. Viewing the city through the lens of a camera enables us to build new narratives. Films have captured port cities within the flows of, goods, people, and ideas, making them ever-present in shared memories, historical narratives and urban nostalgia. Cultural production plays a role in the on-going construction of local port cultures, whether films, festivals, music, literature, theater, advertisements, or events. Telling the story of the port city - its past, present, and future; its buildings and its people - contributes strongly to the creation of port city cultures.[i] The big screen can help viewers to perceive complex port city regions, learning from their history, understanding cultural values and developing shared urban narratives to tackle the upcoming challenges. In a broader sense, port city's 'Cine-scape'-to use a term coined by Richard Koeck,[ii] puts the cinematic approach to port cities into the spotlight.
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Who owns the city after all? Can sea cruise tourism help develop Amsterdam as a 'City in Balance'?

The city and region of Amsterdam, together with the historical and cultural sights of the city, offers excellent facilities for ocean cruises, which contributes greatly in economic growth and employment. Meanwhile, a significant value conflict (Mager, 2020) exists among stakeholders. To deal with 'over-tourism' and maintain a 'City in Balance ' (City of Amsterdam, 2016; Municipality of Amsterdam, 2019), since late 2010s the city has endeavored to take measures to reduce the number of budget travelers, and attract more higher-paying tourists (Aalbers & Sabat, 2012; Kavaratzis & Ashworth, 2007).
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New Neapolis: A Creative Teaming Up of Port Cities

In January 2020, Rotterdam-based artist Gyz La Rivière released a new film project, entitled New Neapolis, in which he connects his Dutch hometown to three other European port cities: Liverpool, Marseille and Naples. Grouped together, they form 'New Neapolis', building on the ancient name of Naples that meant 'new city'. Following an earlier book publication of the same name, and accompanied by an exhibition, La Rivière conceived New Neapolis as a metropolitan league that turns the national underdog position of all its members into an advantage. Compared to the stately capitals London, Paris and Rome, New Neapolis builds on the international network of the port cities and their inhabitants' traditional 'can do'-mentality to strive for a shared, utopian future.
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Maritime Mindsets of Rotterdam's Port Communities

23 Apr 2020
Sarah Sannen

Rotterdam is a major port city of The Netherlands, with a colourful history of trade, war and immigration. As the port of Rotterdam, the biggest port in Europe, has largely moved out of the city, the City of Rotterdam aims to compensate for this with festivals, museums and other events to engage and strengthen the maritime mindset. This institutionalised and heavily funded approach is centred on securing Rotterdam's reputation as a globally leading port city. There is more than a top-down intervention to construct a maritime mindset. Smaller communities near the port itself have their own. They are further from the main hub of activity and political centre, have less centralised funding and are not a priority in the City's strategy. But that wouldn't tell the whole story.
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The European Green Deal: New Opportunities for Port Cities?

With the European Green Deal made public last December, the new European Commission took the first steps to transforming Europe into the first climate neutral continent by 2050. The Green Deal offers a wide range of climate policies and measures that directly affect European cities and citizens. Whereas port cities are high polluters and important economic concentrations, they are not mentioned in the European Green Deal as such. However, to make the ''effective and fair transition'' that the Commission aims for, port cities could make a difference as they concentrate key economic and industrial facilities and are key to the EU's long-term economic competitiveness.
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Change of perspective: value-based deliberations for improved port-city relations

3 Apr 2020
Tino Mager In the course of the 20th century, some port cities, especially larger ones, have experienced an increasing separation of their port and city areas. Not only are they spatially separating from each other; they also follow different agendas in economic, ecological and cultural terms. At times, communication between port and city can be severely impaired due to diverging interests, for example, when port and city leaders respectively pursue diverging agendas in terms of energy generation, for example from fossil or renewable sources. Port cities around the world face these dualities, some captured in the visualization of PortCityFutures. For the benefit of the larger port city region, they need to find answers that benefit both actors. A first step towards a shared perspective is through the development of shared values. As members of the PortCityFutures group, we argue that port and city actors can better negotiate, and find solutions for their differing interests, when they focus on underlying values.
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Are Cities, Ports, and Port Cities Systems? From Optimizing to Co-Creating Resilience

In the context of rising sea levels, "resilience" is a growing priority for many ports and cities. Resilience typically refers, as Olsson et al write, to a system's ability to cope with stress. How much stress the infrastructures, institutions, and inhabitants of cities and ports-and port cities-can absorb is certainly an important question. However, there are limits to how far those governing and managing them can, or should, think of them as "systems". Perhaps the most important issue is whether or not what we call "society" actually functions like a system-or, put differently, the kind of "system" imagined by engineers, industrial ecologists, and others drawing on resilience theory to design spatial, institutional, and social measures. Social scientists, including anthropologists, have long criticized such thinking's implicit functionalism: the assumption that we can break society into parts, with distinct functions, that when properly aligned can reach equilibrium. These theories lend themselves easily to managerial approaches: all one needs to do is optimize the system. However, they neglect how our societies often do not, in fact, fit neatly together.
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Port City Resilience: (Re-)Connecting Spaces, Institutions and Culture

17 Mar 2020
Carola Hein

Ports and cities and their surrounding regions coexist in a limited, shared space; today, they face multiple challenges, including climate change, energy transitions, digitization, or social transformations. These challenges require coordinated responses from all stakeholders: port authorities, city and regional governments, private and public actors, as well as NGOs and citizens. Historically, such collaborations are a trade mark of port cities around the world, their public and private stakeholders displaying great capacity for overcoming challenges meaningfully, forcefully and rapidly. Together, such stakeholders have dealt with a broad range of external and internal shocks to the advantage of both their ports and the neighboring cities.
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Current and upcoming issues discussed by our PortCityFutures members and relations This blog is a communal effort of the PortCityFutures members. It displays different types of content, such as reviews of articles, opinionated pieces, reactions on current events and many more. Most articles are co-written to ensure the incorporation of knowledge from different backgrounds and disciplines.

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Transformation von Standorten am Beispiel europäischer (und weltweiter) Hafenstädte

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Transformation von Standorten am Beispiel europäischer (und weltweiter) Hafenstädte

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The purpose of this Guide is to provide decision makers and stakeholders a decision support tool for addressing the problems they will face when putting into practice the ideal of "Planning the city with the port".

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Blogbeitrag zur Idee einer nachhaltigeren Organisation der Globalisierung

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Slow food, slow fashion, slow travel. What about slow transport, does that make sense in our superfast 24/7 economy?
Having been working and studying international transport for over 25 years, slow transport is the latest upcoming trend of the industry. Counterintuitively it doesn't make sense to take it slow in transport. Time is money and fast transit times makes that products arrive earlier at the customer's doorstep, thereby also reducing cycle stocks. From a cash-to-cash cycle perspective, it reduces working capital across the supply chain.

Yet, we are witessing the fresh breeze of slow travel and slow transport. The shipping industry is already familiar with slow steaming. In times of crisis this tactic is applied to reduce overcapacity in shipping markets. Positive side effects are the energy savings and emissions reduction. Shippers are not too enthusiastic about slow steaming though, as service levels go down.
"Cutting ship speed by 20% would cut sulphur and nitrogen oxides by around 24%. There are also significant reductions in black carbon, which are tiny black particles contained in the smoke from ship " (, 11 November 2019)
The trend for slow transport is happening. In both Germany and Sweden, domestic air travel is in decline, while passenger traffic by rail is on the rise ( Bloomberg, 2019). Whether business people are becoming more aware of their own CO2 footprint or not, slow transport offers advantages as well: more 'quality' time for work while in transit, and less hassle with cumbersome security checks in airports.

On inland transport in Europe, similar changes are visible. Shippers have a growing interest in transport by barge and to lesser extent by rail. There are good examples where shippers, port authorities and deepsea terminals align their schedules and offer more reliable barge services. For intercontinental transport of containers, there's ample time to plan for the inland transport, as long as the actors share data for better planning in advance. For empty containers, barge has become the default mode of transport. With better planning, retailers are also making the shift, as long as services are reliable.

"Left unregulated, ships and airplanes could be responsible for almost 40% of global emissions in 2050 if other sectors decarbonise' (Transport & Environment, 2015)

On the high seas the stakes are higher. Up until now shipping and aviation are not part of the Paris agreement, but for how long? At present shipping contributes 3% to global GHG emissions, but the share of shipping could be 17% if left unregulated. Inevitably the transport industry - both at sea and in the air will need to adjust to the new normal and factor in their carbon footprint in the tonmile. Ideally this could be done voluntarily by transitioning to zero emission propulsion technology, or compulsory by taxation or via the implementation of an emission trading system. On a European scale the European Commission is pledging for Green Deals while technology advanced countries like Netherlands have recently signed Green Deals for the maritime industry. Demands from consumers, BCorps and governments are becoming ever more pressing.

Then there are new eco-transport concepts. The world's oceangoing fleet of 50,732 ships - almost all using heavy fuel oil - cover a total cargo distance of about 57,000 billion ton/miles. An important reason why global supply chains can exist is because of the incredibly cheap transport for a tonned carried over sea. Ecoshipping is a concept which takes zero emissions literally, shipping cargo on sail. Some shipowners have taken traditional tallships back in service, while modern turbine-based wind power technology is advancing quickly. Savings are estimated to save 30% on fuel consumption and emissions. How serious should we take this? Well, Manitou Group signed a contract in April 2019 to ship a thousand tractors across the Atlantic Ocean on a NEOLINE 136m/450ft powered by 4,200sqf of sails. With such wind power on board, speed is hardly an issue.

What about the legal side? Under current charter parties, shipowners earn money by speeding up to the port of destination. When the ship is notified ready for unloading the owner can incur demurrage - a compensation for the waiting time - In the old days this made sense, as the arrival time could not be estimated, only calculated on the basis of its speed and distance. In today's digital age with AIS tracking, such contractual arrangements keep a negative business model for shipowners alive, and by doing so are counterproductive in pursuing energy saving programmes.

The true question is not whether slow transport can exist. Across the supply chain there is still so much time to save, just by planning smarter and working together. So in a way, the industry has accepted slow supply chains. It's all a matter of time pressure. We feel the need to perform efficiently, not effectively. Transport professionals are being valued on efficiencies, i.e. productivity for a particular task in a maze of complexity. We feel the need to perform efficiently on a task. Whether it served the purpose is of less importance.

The big question is whether we can accept to take it slow at all. Only in weeks like the Christmas holidays we are forced to slow down, spend time with our families, some go to church, some reboot in luxury resorts, some go up the mountains to go skiing, others read books under the X-Mas tree. Finally there's time to let go on the speed of life. Time has caught up on us. Maybe it's our mortgage, or even our own mortality. When we want to take climate action seriously, the world has to slow down, thereby use less fuel, travel shorter distances, using slower modes of transport, plan more wisely. The journey is what makes it worthwile, not getting there as fast as possible.

Take it slow, and enjoy the time warp in your holidays!

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Slow food, slow fashion, slow travel. What about slow transport, does that make sense in our superfast 24/7 economy? Having been working and studying international transport for over 25 years, slow transport is the latest upcoming trend of the industry. Counterintuitively it doesn't make sense to take it slow in transport.

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Dreiteiler zum Anthropozän plus Scobel-Talk in der 3Sat-Mediathek

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Der Mensch ist zum wichtigsten Einflussfaktor auf den Zustand der Erde geworden. Wissenschaftler sprechen vom Anthropozän - dem Zeitalter des Menschen.

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Seablind - The price of shipping our stuff

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Seablind - The price of shipping our stuff

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Film-Hinweis (Trailer); Zusammenhang Eisschmelze - Nordost-Passage - neue Handelsrouten

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Seablind, The Price of Shipping Our Stuff trailer

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Der Globale Süden zwischen Chinese leadership und SDGs?

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Der Globale Süden zwischen Chinese leadership und SDGs?

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Lohnendes Hintergrundwissen für den #Entwicklungsdiskurs im #GeoUnterricht der Sek. II?
Mögliche Perspektive auf konkrete Raumbeispiele?

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MAIN ARGUMENT

Under Xi Jinping, China has become more vocal about its dissatisfaction with the existing international order. Whereas its posture used to be mostly defensive, it has recently engaged in a more forward-leaning, assertive effort to reshape the system. Xi is confident in China's growing material power but is aware that the country still lacks "discourse power"-the ability to exert influence over the formulations and ideas that underpin the international order. Although the Chinese leadership has mobilized intellectual resources to fill this gap, it has not explicitly laid out an alternative vision of what the world should look like. However, a close reading of ongoing internal discussions and debates suggests that China's vision for a future system under its helm draws inspiration from traditional Chinese thought and past historical experiences. The collective intellectual effort reflects a yearning for partial hegemony, loosely exercised over large portions of the "global South"-a space that would be free from Western influence and purged of liberal ideals. The contours of this new system would not be traced along precise geographic or ideological lines but be defined by the degree of deference that those within China's sphere of influence are willing to offer Beijing.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

The Chinese leadership's efforts to increase China's discourse power should not be dismissed or misconstrued as mere propaganda or empty slogans. Rather, they should be seen as evidence of the leadership's determination to alter the norms that underpin existing institutions and put in place the building blocks of a new international system coveted by the Chinese Communist Party.

The Chinese leadership's critique of the existing international order reveals its unswerving objection to the values on which this order has been built. At stake is not only the predominant position of the U.S. in the current system but more importantly the potential erosion of fundamental human rights, freedom of thought and expression, and self-government around the world.

The Chinese Communist Party seems to envision a new world order in which China enjoys only partial hegemony rather than rules the world. Nonetheless, a dual-centered system could eventually materialize in which emerging and developing countries may yet again become the battleground for global influence among great powers.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MAIN ARGUMENT Under Xi Jinping, China has become more vocal about its dissatisfaction with the existing international order. Whereas its posture used to be mostly defensive, it has recently engaged in a more forward-leaning, assertive effort to reshape the system.

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Twitter-Thread als Impuls für eine Zukunftswerkstatt oder ein Projekt.
Klick: https://twitter.com/BrentToderian/status/1219753462272946177?s=20

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Paris Mayor @Anne_Hidalgo is championing “the quarter hour city,” where Parisians can get everything they need within 15 minutes. It means rethinking a LOT, even in a city like #Paris, including street design. Watch this via @ParisEnCommun @CarlosMorenoFr

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Paris Mayor @Anne_Hidalgo is championing “the quarter hour city,” where Parisians can get everything they need within 15 minutes. It means rethinking a LOT, even in a city like #Paris, including street design. Watch this via @ParisEnCommun @CarlosMorenoFr https://t.co/fCkxYBqjZr

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Paris Mayor @Anne_Hidalgo is championing “the quarter hour city,” where Parisians can get everything they need within 15 minutes. It means rethinking a LOT, even in a city like #Paris, including street design. Watch this via @ParisEnCommun @CarlosMorenoFr https://t.co/fCkxYBqjZr

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Paris Mayor @Anne_Hidalgo is championing “the quarter hour city,” where Parisians can get everything they need within 15 minutes. It means rethinking a LOT, even in a city like #Paris, including street design. Watch this via @ParisEnCommun @CarlosMorenoFr https://t.co/fCkxYBqjZr

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Paris Mayor @Anne_Hidalgo is championing “the quarter hour city,” where Parisians can get everything they need within 15 minutes. It means rethinking a LOT, even in a city like #Paris, including street design. Watch this via @ParisEnCommun @CarlosMorenoFr

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Ideen zur nachhaltigen Stadtentwicklung von Anne Hidalgo, Paris
Artikel als Impuls und/oder Ressource für eine Zukunftswerkstatt oberen Projekt

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Should she get reelected as Mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo plans to turn the French capital into a myriad of neighborhoods where "you can find everything you need within 15 minutes from home."

But, preferably, not by car. Instead, the Socialist Party politician wants more Parisians to walk and cycle.

Plans for the "city of fifteen minutes"-or, Ville Du Quart D'Heure-were unveiled on January 21 by Hidalgo's reelection campaign, Paris En Commun .

The plans, which aim to transform Paris into a people-friendly city, build on Hidalgo's "Plan Vélo" transport changes made during her current term of office, which has included removing space for cars and boosting space for cyclists and pedestrians.

Hidalgo unveiled more people-first plans for Paris during a hustings hosted in a bike shop on January 28, including for every street in the French capital to have a cycle path, and for all of the city's bridges to have protected cycleways.

"If you liked Season 1 [of Plan Vélo] , you will love Season 2," she insisted.

On January 29, Hidalgo revealed that the space required to make Paris cyclist-friendly would mostly come at the expense of motoring. Under her plans Paris will remove 72% of its on-street car parking spaces.

According to a 2019 study by Atelier Parisien d'Urbanisme (Apur) there are 83,500 on-street parking spaces in Paris-Hidalgo plans to remove 60,000 of them. (There are 621,600 parking spaces in total in Paris, most of them are domestic ones or commercial car parks.)
The City of 15 Minutes
Hidalgo wants to carry out what she calls an "ecological transformation of the city," aiming to clean the city's air and improve the "daily life of Parisians."

Based on the "segmented city" ideas suggested by Carlos Moreno, a "smart city" professor at the University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, the "city of fifteen minutes" will include making key thoroughfares in Paris inaccessible to motor vehicles; turning currently traffic-choked intersections into pedestrian plazas, and creating "children streets" next to schools.

Green spaces, vegetable plots, and playgrounds will take the place of car parking, should Hidalgo get a second term, she promises.

Cyclists ride along the Seine river in Paris. (Photo by Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP) (Photo by ... [+]
AFP via Getty Images

Some of what Hidalgo calls the "new organization of streets" will be permanent; other elements-such as the child-friendly school streets-would operate during the start and end of school days.

The Ville Du Quart D'Heure concept is based on Moreno's idea of "chrono-urbanism," or having amenities, jobs, and shopping close to home. This means "changing our relationship with time, essentially time relating to mobility," says Moreno.

Rather than building out-of-town shopping malls, the 15-minute city would feature "hyper proximity," with accessibility to "essential living needs" always close at hand, and certainly within short walking or cycling distances.

Moreno observes that cities are "still driven by the paradigm of the oil era and its impact on roads and general urban planning" but that the "era of omnipresent cars" is coming to an end.

"Pervasive petrol-powered transport" has to be designed out, believes Moreno to enable "real quality of life." He admits his is an "ambitious urban policy" that will require a "radical transformation of our lifestyles."

It is "about challenging our urban pace of life," says Moreno.

"Chrono-urbanism must be at the heart of our roadmap for the years to come," he states.

"Preserving our quality of life requires us to build other relationships between these two essential components of urban life: time and space."

Paris must "move from city planning to urban life planning." This, says Moreno, "means transforming the urban space, which is still highly mono-functional, with the central city and its various specialized areas, into the polycentric city, based on four major components: proximity, diversity, density, and ubiquity."

His 15-minute city would offer "quality of life within short distances."

The denser, more populated cities of the near future-and not just Paris-will require "turning streets into spaces of carbon-free mobility by walking or cycling, of reinventing new hyper-proximities, of rediscovering biodiversity," says Moreno.

Hidalgo has adopted some of Moreno's ideas as part of her reelection campaign and is keen to be seen as the city's greenest mayoral candidate. She has been Mayor of Paris since 2014, the first woman to hold the office. Two rounds of municipal elections will take place in Paris on March 15 and 22, alongside other French municipal elections.
Go Dutch?
Chrono-urbanism-or the close proximity of shops and amenities to where people live, linked with cycling and walking infrastructure-describes the urban design already standard in Dutch cities such as Groningen and Utrecht.

Moreno says his concept is based on work done by American-Canadian author and activist Jane Jacobs who developed and spread the "living city" concept. Jacobs, author of the seminal The Death and Life of Great American Citie s of 1961, wrote about neighborhood proximity allowing inhabitants to feel more rooted and secure.

"A neighbourhood," she wrote, "is not only an association of buildings but also a network of social relationships, an environment where the feelings and the sympathy can flourish."

This was further explored in the 1960s by geographer Torsten Hagerstrand who developed the concept of "Time Geography."

Expanding on this work, Moreno's chrono-urbanism stresses the importance of six city functions: living, working, supplying, caring, learning, enjoying, and finding fulfilment in life.
Article updated with Anne Hidalgo's January 28 comments, and addition of background to Carlos Moreno's work on chrono-urbanism. Article further updated on January 29 with information on planned removal of car parking places in Paris.
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Every Street In Paris To Be Cycle-Friendly By 2024, Promises Mayor

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Should she get reelected as Mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo plans to turn the French capital into a myriad of neighborhoods where "you can find everything you need within 15 minutes from home." But, preferably, not by car. Instead, the Socialist Party politician wants more Parisians to walk and cycle.

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Konfrontation der Lebensstile: Die "zornigen Zwanziger" haben begonnen 

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Konfrontation der Lebensstile: Die "zornigen Zwanziger" haben begonnen 

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Spiegel-Kolumne von Sascha Lobo

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Es handelt sich um eine Alterskohorte, die bei ihrem persönlichen Fortkommen oft viel Zeit und Arbeit investiert hat in gesellschaftliche Strukturen, die sich gerade verwandeln, verschieben oder untergehen.

Die eher bürgerlich orientierten Leute, die Banklehren gemacht haben oder Journalistik studierten, die von Sportwägen träumten oder auf eine Kreuzfahrt sparten, die Karriere machten oder zumindest ihr Leben danach ausrichteten, weil die große Überbotschaft des Bürgertums im ausgehenden 20. Jahrhundert war: Du bist dein Job.

Woraus leicht eine sehr materiell fixierte Haltung entsteht, wenn man nicht aufpasst. Die Überbetonung des Dinglichen, in einer Zeit, in der das Nichtdingliche, das Virtuelle, das Digitale offensiv und rücksichtslos voranschreiten.

Kampf gegen die Insignien von Erfolg und bürgerlichem Glück

Plötzlich kommen von überall her Leute, die die Insignien von Erfolg und bürgerlichem Glück aus dem 20. Jahrhundert nicht nur ignorieren, sondern ablehnen oder sogar bekämpfen.

Und es sind eben nicht nur die Jungen, sondern auch die Menschen, die schon in den vergangenen 20, 30, 40 Jahren weniger mit der Konsum- und Karrieregesellschaft anfangen konnten.

Denen es leicht fällt, den Sportwagentraum aufzugeben, weil sie ihn genau genommen noch nie träumten. Die zornigen Zwanzigerjahre werden geprägt sein von den Abwehrkämpfen derjenigen, die ihre Mühen noch in die Gesellschaft des 20. Jahrhunderts investiert haben.

Die echten Konflikte erscheinen zu schmerzhaft, um sie ernsthaft zu diskutieren

Sie fühlen sich wie bei der "Umweltsau" oder "Ok Boomer" von Kleinigkeiten zutiefst angegriffen, denn sie fechten auf diese Weise Scheinkonflikte aus. Die echten erscheinen ihnen meist zu schmerzhaft, um sie ernsthaft zu diskutieren.

Eigentlich steht dahinter die Verzweiflung einer untergehenden Epoche: Meine Arbeit soll nicht fehlinvestiert gewesen sein, mein Leben soll nicht falsch gelebt worden sein, ich möchte gefälligst eure Anerkennung für meine tolle Lebensleistung! Es vermischen sich Klimakonflikte, Kapitalismuskonflikte, Migrations-, Kolonialismus- und Rassismuskonflikte, Digitalkonflikte, Bildungskonflikte, Geschlechterkonflikte, Sexualkonflikte, Kulturkonflikte und vieles mehr, was die Jahrhunderte so deutlich unterscheidet.

Ein Fünfzehnjähriger in den Achtzigerjahren aus dem vergangenen Jahrhundert konnte die Hubraumzahlen aus dem Autoquartett auswendig, eine Fünfzehnjährige in den Zwanzigerjahren dieses Jahrhunderts kann die wissenschaftlichen Rahmendaten der grönländischen Gletscherschmelze tagesaktuell aufsagen. Samt der Studienlage und der auf Eltern und Großeltern ausgerichteten Argumentationsmuster.

Zwei Wutfelder, die sich gegenseitig bedingen

Das wird die große Gefahr der zornigen Zwanziger: Dass es zu selten anhand von messbaren Fakten und daraus folgenden Konsequenzen um gesellschaftliches Fortkommen und Weltverbesserung geht. Sondern um die Gesichtswahrung von Holozän-Menschen, die eher die Realität umdeuten werden als zuzugeben, dass sie ihr Leben zwischen Jahreswagen-Kombi und 20-Uhr-Fernsehnachrichten an nicht mehr haltbaren Maßstäben ausgerichtet haben.

Die Häme und die Abwertung gegenüber jungen und progressiven Menschen, die viele dieser Scheinkonflikte begleitet, deutet darauf hin, dass die Zwanzigstes-Jahrhundert-Fraktion sich quer durch alle sozialen Schichten tief getroffen fühlt. Der Zorn der zornigen Zwanzigerjahre besteht aus zwei Wutfeldern, die sich gegenseitig bedingen:

Der enttäuschte Groll der durch das bürgerliche, holozäne 20. Jahrhundert Geprägten, dass ihre Lebensstile und Lebensziele deutlich weniger Anerkennung finden als erhofft.

Die zielgerichtete, produktive Wut der im anthropozänen 21. Jahrhundert Geprägten, die nicht zusehen wollen, wie Dieselmotor-Kapitalismus und Traditionsstarrsinn die Zukunft bedrohen.

Beide verbindet ein Gegenwartshadern, aus dem der Zorn sich speist. Nur dass die einen irgendwie zurück wollen in eine vergehende Epoche und die anderen endlich in der Zukunft ankommen und danach handeln wollen.

Der Klimawandel ist der Schlüssel zum Verständnis der zornigen Zwanzigerjahre

Hinter dem Generationenkonflikt verbirgt sich der uralte Konflikt der Konservativen gegen die Progressiven - aber mit einem essenziellen Unterschied. "Ok Boomer", "Fridays for Future" und "Oma als Umweltsau", alle diese Aufregungen handelten im Kern vom Klimawandel. Er ist der Schlüssel zum Verständnis der zornigen Zwanzigerjahre, der Kristallisationspunkt des Epochenkonflikts, denn hier hat sich etwas komplett umgedreht.

Ein drohender Weltuntergang war früher eine konservative Erzählung. Die Bewahrung des Bestehenden war für Konservative die beste Lösung, dem Untergang zu entkommen. Mit dem Klimawandel ist der Weltuntergang zu einer progressiven Erzählung geworden.

Das mag sich kontraintuitiv anhören, aber die Wirkweise wird klar, wenn man die Abwendung des Weltuntergangs als progressive Motivation begreift, mit der man gemeinschaftlich auf Basis wissenschaftlicher Fakten gegen den Klimawandel anarbeitet.

Löschfraktion versus Duftbaumfraktion

Progressive Weltverbesserung ist plötzlich darauf ausgerichtet zu bewahren. Wohingegen sich die Konservativen splitten in diejenigen, denen es eigentlich nur um sie selbst und den für sie bequemen Status quo geht, und diejenigen, die begreifen, dass etwa die Klimakatastrophe Veränderungen erfordert, die man im 20. Jahrhundert als "viel zu radikal" betrachtet hätte.

In Zeiten eines existenziellen Wandels können zutiefst bürgerliche Eigenschaften wie Gelassenheit und Mäßigung in die Realitätsverleugnung kippen und irgendwann nur noch als Pose aufrechterhalten werden. Um es mit Gretas Metapher zu sagen: Wenn das Haus brennt, muss man rausrennen und versuchen, es zu löschen. Und nicht bloß ins Nebenzimmer schlendern und einen Duftbaum aufhängen.

In den zornigen Zwanzigern wird die Löschfraktion gegen die Duftbaumfraktion kämpfen, und es wird, so fürchte ich, böse und blutig. Optimistisch bin ich persönlich trotzdem, denn die mächtigste Kämpferin von allen ist auf der Seite von uns Progressiven: die Zeit. Selbst wenn sie oft länger braucht als erhofft.

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Die zornigen Zwanzigerjahre: Progressive gegen Konservative - DER SPIEGEL - Netzwelt

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Es handelt sich um eine Alterskohorte, die bei ihrem persönlichen Fortkommen oft viel Zeit und Arbeit investiert hat in gesellschaftliche Strukturen, die sich gerade verwandeln, verschieben oder untergehen. Die eher bürgerlich orientierten Leute, die Banklehren gemacht haben oder Journalistik studierten, die von Sportwägen träumten oder auf eine Kreuzfahrt sparten, die Karriere machten oder zumindest ihr Leben danach ausrichteten, weil die große Überbotschaft des Bürgertums im ausgehenden 20.

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NDR

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Stand: 01.08.19 06:00 Uhr

Die Monumente der Bourgeoisie gelte es, vor ihrem Verfall als Ruinen zu erkennen, hat Walter Benjamin (1892-1940) gesagt. Den philosophischen Gedanken vom konkreten Gegenstand abzuleiten, war eine von Benjamins Spezialitäten. In den Passagen von Paris erkannte er das Symbol der bürgerlichen Gesellschaft des 19. Jahrhunderts. In diesen glas-überdachten Gängen, die nicht "nicht Straße und nicht Haus" waren und in denen sich zahllose Geschäfte tummelten, sei der moderne Fetisch der Ware und damit des Konsums entstanden. Zudem seien die Passagen die Brutstätte der "industries de plaisance", der Vergnügungsindustrien, gewesen.

Es erscheint philosophisch nicht unzulässig, im Kreuzfahrtschiff die Passage des 21. Jahrhunderts zu erblicken. Nicht Hotel, nicht Schiff trägt es die Massen unserer Zeit übers Meer. Auf Passagen von Bari nach Mallorca, von Gran Canaria nach Madeira, von Dubai nach Sydney, und von Barbados nach Rio de Janeiro. Welcher gesellschaftlichen Klasse die "Passagiere" angehören, ist eine müßige Frage. Es sind jedenfalls Menschen, die genug Euros, Dollars oder Yuans übrig haben, um sich eine "Passage" leisten zu können. In den Industrienationen Deutschland und USA trifft das auf viele klassische Proletarier zu. Unstrittig ist, dass die Profiteure der Kreuzfahrtindustrie eher der Großbourgeoisie zuzurechnen sind. Auf dem 8. Kreuzfahrt-Kongress im November in Hamburg sagte Karl Pojer, der CEO der Hamburger Reederei Hapag Lloyd Cruises: "Mitarbeiter auf einem Kreuzfahrtschiff werden wahrscheinlich nie einen Porsche besitzen. Aber sie müssen verstehen, warum der Kunde einen hat oder einen haben will."

Amüsieren wir die Umwelt zu Tode?

Das Kreuzfahrtschiff ist der Fetisch des zeitgenössischen Vergnügungs- und Reisekonsumenten. Das kann man unschwer an dem Schiffsnamen "Mein Schiff" (1 bis 6) erkennen, mit dem der deutsche Anbieter TUI Cruises seine Flotte getauft hat. Über die kulturellen und sozialpsychologischen Aspekte des Kreuzfahrens wurde bereits viel Kritisches gesagt, von Autoren wie David Foster Wallace in den USA oder Wolfgang Meyer-Hentrich und Wolfgang Gregor in Deutschland. Auch die ökologischen Folgen sind schon häufiger zum Gegenstand detaillierter Kritik von Umweltschutzorganisationen wie dem Nabu und von Journalisten wie Andreas Orth in Deutschland und Naomi Klein in Nordamerika geworden.

Muss man nicht beides zusammenführen und fragen, in welcher Kultur wir leben, wenn wir so fröhlich in Massen auf umweltzerstörende Freizeit-Passage gehen? Das ist kein Plädoyer gegen Urlaub und Erholung. Die Idee des Schabbat ist 3.000 Jahre alt und wird von dieser Stelle ausdrücklich gutgeheißen. Aber Kreuzfahrt ist nun mal, anders als Urlaub und Erholung schlechthin, kein "Must-Have", wie Malte Siegert vom Naturschutzbund Deutschland (Nabu) sagt. Und deshalb könne man das "auch einfach mal sein lassen".

Klimawissenschaftler rechnen mit einem Kohlenstoffbudget pro Mensch. Das beträgt zur Zeit etwa 2,3 Tonnen Kohlendioxid im Jahr und muss sinken, wenn man die Erderwärmung auf ein erträgliches Maß begrenzen will. Sein persönliches Jahresbudget von 2,3 Tonnen CO2 hat aufgebraucht, wer eine neuntägige Hochseekreuzfahrt unternimmt. Faktisch verursachen Deutsche im Durchschnitt rund 11 Tonnen CO2 pro Jahr.

Enorme Steigerungsraten bei den CO2-Emissionen

Kaum eine Industrie in Deutschland hat einen so hohen Anstieg des Treibhausgasausstoßes zu verzeichnen wie die Kreuzfahrtbranche. TUI Cruises hatte 2018 eine Steigerung um 4,99 Prozent, 2017 um 25,32 Prozent und 2016 um 25,70 Prozent bei den CO2-Emissionen zu verzeichnen. Aida verbuchte 2017 ein Plus von 14,17 Prozent, 2016 von 7,39 Prozent. Die Gesamtemissionen lagen 2018 bei 748.713 Tonnen CO2. Das entspricht einer Steigerung um 4,57 Prozent im Vergleich zu 2017. Dabei haben sich Staaten und Industrien verpflichtet, ihren Ausstoß zu senken. Das schafft zwar auch die deutsche Automobilindustrie seit Jahren nicht. Aber sie hat zumindest nicht solche Steigerungsraten beim Treibhausgasausstoß.

Die Kreuzfahrtbranche behauptet, trotz der genannten Zahlen, dass sich ihr Ausstoß verringere. Sie verweist auf relative Einsparungen pro Passagier. "Unser Treibstoffverbrauch ist in den letzten 20 Jahren um 70 Prozent gesunken", sagt Helge Grammerstorf, Chef der deutschen Sektion des Kreuzfahrtverbandes CLIA. Nehmen wir einmal zugunsten von Helge Grammerstorf an, dass seine Angabe zur Verbesserung der Energieeffizienz stimmt. Vor zwanzig Jahren gab es rund 300.000 deutsche Kreuzfahrtpassagiere. 2018 waren es 2,23 Millionen, ein Zuwachs um mehr als das Siebenfache. Selbst bei einer Einsparung von 70 Prozent je Passagier hat sich der CO2-Gesamtausstoß der deutschen Kreuzfahrtindustrie in dem Zeitraum mehr als verdoppelt.

Erklärtes Ziel: 2030 sechs Millionen Deutsche auf Kreuzfahrt

Die Masse macht's eben. Und die möchte die Branche gern noch vergrößern. Das erklärte Ziel ist, im Jahr 2030 sechs Millionen Deutsche auf Kreuzfahrt zu schicken. "Nach einer von uns in Auftrag gegebenen BAT-Studie haben nur acht Prozent der Deutschen bisher eine Kreuzfahrt gemacht. Aber 34 Prozent können sich vorstellen, eine zu unternehmen", erklärt Wybcke Meier, die Geschäftsführerin von TUI Cruises, im Interview mit Panorama am Rande des Kreuzfahrt-Kongresses in Hamburg. Die Branche sieht also noch viel unerschöpftes Potenzial.

Das Wachstum der Passagierzahlen will man mit günstigen Angeboten erreichen. Teurer Umweltschutz stört da. Um zu wissen, was das bedeutet, genügt ein Blick in den Hamburger Hafen. Am Kreuzfahrtterminal Altona steht seit 2016 eine Landstromanlage zur Verfügung. Die Idee dahinter, die den Steuerzahler mehr als 10 Millionen Euro kostete: während ihres Aufenthalts in Hamburg sollen die Schiffe ihren Betrieb mit sauberem Strom von Land gewährleisten. Fakt ist, dass von 40 Kreuzfahrtschiffen, die Hamburg anlaufen, gegenwärtig nur eines die Anlage in Altona nutzt. Die übrigen 39 stellen ihren Strom mit Dieselgeneratoren an Bord und, in wenigen Fällen, mit LNG her und verpesten so die Luft in der Stadt. Das kostet die Reedereien weniger Geld, die Stadtbewohner kann es die Gesundheit kosten. Hamburg ist übrigens die Stadt, die außer dem Hafen auch eine "Europa-Passage", eine "Gänsemarkt-Passage" und eine "Hanse-Passage" ihr eigen nennt.

Landstrom - auf Kosten der Steuerzahler?

Der Senat und die Regierungen der anderen Küstenländer wollen mit dem Bundeswirtschaftsministerium überlegen, wie sie den Preis des Landstroms für die Kreuzfahrtreedereien senken können. Möglicherweise wird Bundesfinanzminister Olaf Scholz (SPD), dem ehemaligen Ersten Bürgermeister von Hamburg, noch ein Einfall kommen, wie der Staat die Stromversorgung der Schiffe mit weiterem Steuergeld unterstützen kann.

Die Reedereien verweisen auf ihre unablässigen Anstrengungen für den Umwelt- und Klimaschutz. Bis 2030 wolle man den CO2-Ausstoß um weitere 40 Prozent senken. Das ist als relativer Wert gemeint, der sich auf den Durchschnittsverbrauch der Flotte und der Passagiere bezieht (von denen es dann allein aus Deutschland sechs Millionen geben soll). Wie diese zusätzliche Steigerung der Energieeffizienz konkret erreicht werden soll, sagt die Branche nicht. Die Ankündigungen, irgendwann in der Zukunft werde es besser, sind unverbindlich.

Die Einführung von Flüssiggas (LNG) als Treibstoff könne helfen, heißt es in einer Pressemitteilung, die der Branchenverband CLIA am 7. März verbreitete. Dabei hat Ole von Beust (CDU), ein anderer ehemaliger Erster Bürgermeister von Hamburg und gegenwärtig Lobbyist für Flüssiggas, in seiner Ansprache auf dem Kreuzfahrt-Kongress eingeräumt, dass die Nutzung von LNG die Klimabilanz der Kreuzfahrt nicht verbessere.

Ökologisches Feigenblatt? Überflüssig

Fliegen sei noch klimaschädlicher, erklärt der Kreuzfahrtverband CLIA gegenüber Panorama. Das ist richtig. Leider ist es so, dass Kreuzfahrten häufig am anderen Ende der Welt beginnen. Viele Passagiere fliegen zunächst auf eine Karibikinsel, nach Dubai oder Singapur, um dann ein Kreuzfahrtschiff zu besteigen.

"Wir wollen unseren ökologischen Fußabdruck so gering wie möglich halten", sagt Kreuzfahrt-Managerin Wybcke Meier. Die beschriebene Lage an den Hamburger Terminals und die genannten Zahlen reichen aus, um die Aussage einzuordnen. Andere Branchen betreiben "Greenwashing". Sie stellen sich grüner dar, als sie sind. Manchmal ist es nicht so leicht, die Diskrepanz zwischen Anspruch und Wirklichkeit nachzuweisen. Bei der Kreuzfahrtbranche ist es anders. Sie hat nicht einmal ein Feigenblatt.

Die Analyse der Branchenstrategen scheint eiskalt. Die Kreuzfahrtindustrie braucht kein Feigenblatt. Die Passagiere kommen auch so. Sie folgen sogar dem jüngsten Trend begeistert: Kreuzfahrten in die Polarregionen. Auf der Hamburger Touristik-Messe im Februar hat Panorama beobachtet, wie das läuft. Marketing-Experten der Reedereien präsentieren Bilder von Eisbären und Pinguinen. Entdecken Sie die wunderbare Tierwelt in Arktis und Antarktis! "25.000 Touristen" habe er schon "zum geografischen Nordpol gebracht", erklärt stolz der "Expeditionsleiter" einer Reederei. Gleichzeitig gaukelt die Branche jedem einzelnen Passagier vor, "ein Entdecker" zu sein.

Vom Nordpol zum Südpol ist's nur ein Katzensprung

"Ein No-Go" seien Kreuzfahrten in die Polarregionen, sagt Malte Siegert vom Nabu. "Die Polkappen schmelzen in rasender Geschwindigkeit. Die Schiffe verteilen Ruß über das Eis und beschleunigen so den Prozess", erklärt der Umweltexperte.

Vom Klimawandel, der nirgendwo so sichtbar ist wie in der Arktis, fällt bei den Werbevorträgen der Reedereien in den Hamburger Messehallen kein Wort. Die Kundschaft beißt an. "Das war ein wunderbarer Tag. Wir wurden heute überrannt", sagt Marcel Schütz von "Polar-Reisen". Anbieter und Kunden scheinen sich einig zu sein: der letzte Eisbär und der letzte Pinguin werden nicht zugrunde gehen, bevor jeder Deutsche sich persönlich im Rahmen einer Kreuzfahrt von ihm verabschiedet hat.

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Stand: 01.08.19 06:00 Uhr Die Monumente der Bourgeoisie gelte es, vor ihrem Verfall als Ruinen zu erkennen, hat Walter Benjamin (1892-1940) gesagt. Den philosophischen Gedanken vom konkreten Gegenstand abzuleiten, war eine von Benjamins Spezialitäten. In den Passagen von Paris erkannte er das Symbol der bürgerlichen Gesellschaft des 19. Jahrhunderts.

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Raumverteilung in den Städten: Fußgänger vs Straße

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Raumverteilung in den Städten: Fußgänger vs Straße

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Illustration als Impuls für Gestaltungsaufgabe im Kontext nachhaltige Raum-/Stadtplanung?

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Illustration: © Karl Jilg

Oft ist es uns gar nicht so richtig bewusst, aber: Unsere Städte sind auf Autos ausgerichtet. Der schwedische Grafiker Karl Jilg zeigt in einer einfachen, aber genialen Illustration, wie wenig Platz in Städten oft für Fußgänger*innen bleibt.

Fast alle Orte sind so gestaltet, dass Autos, nicht Fußgänger*innen oder Radfahrer*innen, sich darin möglichst bequem bewegen können. Wie prekär dadurch die Fortbewegung für Nicht-Autofahrer*innen werden kann, verdeutlicht diese beeindruckende Grafik.

Nach Informationen des US-Nachrichtenmagazins Vox hat der schwedische Künstler Karl Jilg die Zeichnung im Auftrag der staatlichen schwedischen Verkehrsbehörde angefertigt.

Indem der Künstler Straßen als tiefe Schluchten darstellt, macht er deutlich, wie wenig Raum den Fußgänger*innen bleibt: Schmale Bürgersteige führen am Abgrund entlang, wacklige Bretter führen als Fußgängerüberwege über die Schluchten.

Damit illustriert die Zeichnung auch, wie gefährlich es vielerorts sein kann, sich als Fußgänger*in durch die Stadt zu bewegen. Der Raum, in dem man sich zu Fuß halbwegs sicher bewegen kann, ist eng, stark befahrene Straßen zu überqueren oft schwierig und riskant. Fahrradfahrer*innen, denen in vielen Städten noch weniger Platz zur Verfügung steht, sind dabei noch gar nicht berücksichtigt.

Die Grafik sollten wir als Denkanstoß nehmen: Rund 40 Prozent der Erwerbstätigen nimmt derzeit auch für Kurzstrecken das Auto. Das ist nicht nur unnötig, sondern verschlechtert auch unsere Lebensqualität in den Städten. Oder andersherum: Je mehr Menschen sich zu Fuß und mit dem Fahrrad durch die Stadt bewegen, desto stärker der Anstoß für die Stadtplaner*innen, sich um sichere und gut ausgebaute Fuß- und Radwege zu kümmern.
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Schlagwörter: Auto Sozial

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Diese kluge Illustration zeigt, wie viel Raum wir an Autos verschwenden

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Illustration: © Karl Jilg Oft ist es uns gar nicht so richtig bewusst, aber: Unsere Städte sind auf Autos ausgerichtet. Der schwedische Grafiker Karl Jilg zeigt in einer einfachen, aber genialen Illustration, wie wenig Platz in Städten oft für Fußgänger*innen bleibt. Fast alle Orte sind so gestaltet, dass Autos, nicht Fußgänger*innen oder Radfahrer*innen, sich darin möglichst bequem bewegen können.

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Certainty is on the tip of every climate activist's, scholar's, and writer's tongue these days. We are certain that we have only until 2030 to rapidly decarbonize the economy. We are certain that even if we do manage to meet this ambitious goal, sea levels will still rise another foot or so-demanding either that our cities do the same or that their people are relocated away from our shifting shorelines. We are certain that things are getting worse-promised, even, that they are somehow worse than we've imagined.

We are so certain, in part, because we have so many models telling us so many things about our now certain damnation. There are physical models of the Earth's systems, showing how we can expect oceanic and atmospheric forces to change under the various emissions-based scenarios developed by the IPCC. There are projective models of who might be displaced-and where they might go-as sea levels rise, temperatures increase, and the climate refugee crisis becomes impossible to ignore. There are predictive models of how various forms of climate adaptation might perform, often as instruments of flood risk mitigation. There are financial and economic models of how we might pay for a set of planetary transformations like decarbonization and adaptation. Increasingly, there are also simulation models of what it might mean to geoengineer the Earth's systems, either by spraying sulfates into the stratosphere or by rapidly deploying negative-emissions technologies that remove carbon from the air. We have seen the future, and it works-so long as the assumptions in our models are set just right.

Each model brings a new degree of precision and clarity to our climate imaginary. They help us make sense of which outcomes are probable and which are possible-and they imply their own ideas about desirability in the process. That winnowing of potential futures and choices can bring with it a sense of heightened certainty about how, when, and where things might unfold on a planet devoured by capitalism.

Though these models are an important tool for understanding how the future could or should be made manifest, they are not the only tool-even if we (designers, journalists, and broader publics beyond the climate science community) tend to treat them as such. We do this despite the vast degrees of uncertainty present in even our most basic physical models, to say nothing of our inability to model and imagine the sociopolitical, technical, and economic forces that will, ultimately, determine how much warming, mitigation, and adaptation we will have to live with.

The climate crisis is existential, replete with uncertainty, and happening all around us, all the time. Though we have mapped it extensively in this atlas, maps alone cannot tell this story. We need more tools: for making sense of the changing climate; for envisioning alternative futures that foreground what we might gain instead of only what we'll lose; and for stoking public imaginations and actions in ways that models, at least on their own, cannot. To adapt David Wallace-Wells's apocalyptic "The Uninhabitable Earth": it is, we promise, better than you think. Or at least it can be.

This need for a more pluralistic approach to how we navigate through and respond to the climate crisis is what the 2100 Project aims to address. Though physical, sociotechnic, and simulation models of the future will remain an important part of this conversation, our intervention is not about the precise forecasting of a future world reshaped by varying degrees of carbon emission. Rather, it is about backcasting -a method of scenario modeling working backwards from an ideal outcome or future-as a way of understanding a different set of potential futures that the models might be missing.

As the authors of this Atlas for the Green New Deal, the first component of the 2100 Project, we had three primary rationales for assembling this research. The first rationale relates to the idea of backcasting as it pertains to the principal historical analogues of the Green New Deal: FDR's New Deal and JFK's moon shot. We remain convinced that the window for massive, national-scale action on climate will open again soon, and we aim to use this project as a vehicle for generating new research into how those transformations might unfold. The second rationale is tied to the paucity of spatial design expertise and imagination within the current Green New Deal movement. Though it has necessarily been led by organizers, economists, policy experts and advocates, and others, the Green New Deal is the biggest design and environmental idea in a century, with the potential to revolutionize our buildings, landscapes, and public works in ways yet to be conceived. As faculty and graduate students at a prominent school of design, we feel an obligation to engage with the Green New Deal along these lines. And our third rationale for this atlas, and for the 2100 Project as a whole, is that no one else has attempted anything like it-to assemble all of the spatialized climate, land, and social models of the future in one place, synthesized and tightly curated, contextualized and coherently packaged. We also felt compelled to use this project to critique the notion of precision and certainty embedded in these models by representing them through pixelated maps. After all, the future is fuzzy. Our models should be too.

It's important to begin this work where the Green New Dealers have directed us, in the last two eras of true national-scale mobilization around a set of shared goals and ideals: the New Deal and the moon shot. The New Deal is often viewed as a single, coherent organizing framework developed by FDR and his advisers at the start of his administration-as a set of boxes to be checked as they rolled through the 1930s. But this is a fundamental misunderstanding of the improvisational and experimental nature of FDR's presidency. As Richard Hofstadter notes, "The New Deal will never be understood by anyone who looks for a single thread of policy, a far-reaching, far-seeing plan. It was a series of improvisations, many adopted very suddenly, many [of them] contradictory. Such unity as it had was in political strategy, not economics." It was a grand experiment in social democracy, one in which new agencies were created, new authorities and powers promulgated, and new financial resources marshaled to tackle the overlapping ecological, economic, and political crises of the day: the Dust Bowl and its forced migration of over three million farmers from the Midwest; the Great Depression; and the rise of fascism across the globe. Some initiatives, like the Tennessee Valley Authority, proved wildly successful and continue operating today. Other experiments failed or outlived their usefulness, folding during the mobilization for World War II. Some of these, including the Civilian Conservation Corps, which put more than 500,000 young people to work on soil restoration and other public lands projects at its peak; the Works Progress Administration, which built hundreds of airports, bridges, college campuses; and other public works projects; and the Resettlement Administration, which oversaw the Dust Bowl migration and built a series of pilot "greenbelt" towns, helped make the New Deal a built environment revolution in the United States.

This proved to be the last period in which strong national planning-including an expansive design bureaucracy-would be realized in the United States. Much of the rest of the 20th and 21st centuries was left up to the market. Within this market-driven context, newly elected President John F. Kennedy traveled to Houston in May 1961 to deliver his famous moon shot speech at Rice University. He implored the country to "choose to go to the Moon. . . not because it [it is] easy, but because [it is] hard." That speech, and the machinations that followed, set a wildly ambitious national goal without any clue how it might be achieved. Little of the technology necessary to make the trip existed in 1961. So, at JFK's direction, the federal government issued research and procurement contracts and reorganized NASA around the aim of getting to the Moon by the end of the decade, unsure of how-or if-it might ever truly become possible.

Of course, we did go to the Moon. One of the many spoils of the trip was Earthrise-an image of the Earth as an object and thus the first photographic evidence of the planet's physical boundaries. It would prove to be an iconic image, arriving in a milieu defined by Rachel Carson's Silent Spring (1962), Ian McHarg's Design With Nature (1969), and perhaps the largest and most sustained mass mobilization of the environmental movement in American history-a movement proving so strong that it compelled Richard Nixon to usher in what became known as the "environmental decade," when the National Environmental Policy Act, the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act ("Superfund") Act were all passed.

It's in this space where the Green New Deal seems likely to land-in the massive expansion of government as a force for good in the everyday lives of most people (like the New Deal), and in the marshalling of public procurement and standards to drive the private sector towards a shared set of goals (like the moon shot). It requires that we know the destination, but not the path; it requires a bit of backcasting.

This brings us back to the genesis of the 2100 Project. A window is about to open, forced ajar by young climate activists, for the mass mobilization of resources called for by the Green New Deal. When it does, we must be in a better position than we were in 2009 when the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, Barack Obama's "stimulus package") passed. ARRA required that investments in the built environment be tied to "shovel-ready" projects-a caveat that sounds reasonable until you realize that the only shovel-ready projects at the time were those that had been sitting on the books for years, unbuilt largely because they were bad ideas that no one wanted. We don't expect to develop all-or even any-of the Green New Deal's potential projects on our own. But we do hope that this atlas can serve as a platform to support those who will.

We also feel compelled to note that while we would have much preferred to build an atlas encompassing more than just the conterminous United States-one that could include Hawaii and Alaska, as well as Puerto Rico and the other territories-the spatial and climate data available to us simply did not permit it. As we continue to expand the 2100 Project, we're eager to find partners who can help us close these gaps and develop a richer understanding of how the climate crisis will transform all of the places where we live.

This Atlas for the Green New Deal is a product of our own milieu-the overlapping crises we find ourselves living through in 2020. For New Dealers, it was the environmental crisis of the Dust Bowl, the economic crisis of the Great Depression, and the political crisis of fascism that forced open the window for bold, national action. Green New Dealers face the environmental crisis of climate change, the economic crisis of late capitalism, and the political crisis of resurgent fascism across the globe and even here in the United States.

We're constantly told to go slow, to think small, and to tweak systems rather than transform them; that we are doomed, and all that's left to decide is the extent of our collective destruction. But the Green New Deal offers something more: a chance to go fast and to think big; to transform the structures that gave us the climate crisis and inequality; and to imagine a world in which things are, we promise, better than you think.

Inventory

The land area of the conterminous US is approximately 2.9 million square miles, or 1.9 billion acres. It can be broadly divided into seven land use categories: forest, shrubland, grassland + pasture, agriculture, wetlands, urban areas, and other uses. This map illustrates the nation's land composition as of 2017, revealing clear settlement and use patterns at the national scale; each pixel represents 98,765 acres. Along the East and West Coasts, forests and urban areas are prevalent. In the Midwest and the Great Plains, agriculture predominates, along with areas of grassland + pasture. Many of the nation's wetlands are concentrated in the Great Lakes and Gulf Coast megaregions.

These seven land use divisions are defined as follows: forest (land with trees greater than 5 meters tall and with a cover density of 20% or more); shrubland (areas with low woody vegetation); grassland + pasture (respectively, areas of primarily graminoid plants and areas of legumes and grasses planted for animal grazing, feed, or seed crops); agriculture (land dominated by crop production); wetland (areas where the water table is at, near, or above the land surface for part of most years); urban areas (urbanized areas of 50,000 or more people and urban clusters of between 2,500 and 50,000 people; and "other" land use categories, including desert and mountainous areas.[1]

[1] For a more detailed breakdown of US land cover, see Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, "National Land Cover Database 2016," MRLC.gov, accessed July 22, 2019, https://www.mrlc.gov/data.

Until the 1920 census, most people in the US lived in rural areas. Since then, the population in urban areas has steadily increased, both in total number and as a percentage of the national population. As of 2016, 82% of the US lived in urban areas-roughly 270 million people.[2] These urban areas make up around 2% of the US land area, with densities ranging from 27,781.2 people per square mile in New York City down to 1,000 people per square mile, the minimum density required for an urban designation.[3] In some areas (especially the Southwest), annexation is driving urban population growth rather than in-migration or an increase in density. Most urban areas are coastal or river port cities, continuing the historical pattern of human settlement along major bodies of water for ease of travel and trade; a minority of the US population lives in rural areas disconnected from historical water trade routes.

Rural areas are those territories not included within an urban area. Approximately 18% of people in the US live in rural areas; those who do are more likely to own their home, to live in their state of birth, and to have served in the military than their urban counterparts. They are also older, less likely to live in poverty, and less likely to have an advanced degree.[4] Since 1910, the rural population has remained stable in absolute terms, while the urban population has nearly quadrupled.

Much of suburbia is incorporated in the "urban" land use category. The justifications for this simplification from ease of data collection for the Census Bureau to socioeconomic theories of regional economic development that tie commuting patterns and wealth together. While these rationales are justified, they leave us with a highly imperfect measure of the character, quality, and function of the US built environment. Many of these suburban areas are treated as urban by the Census Bureau and the various federal agencies that demarcate funding and financing programs based on coarse definitions of urban and rural; yet their failure to capture the vast suburbanized landscape limits our ability to truly comprehend the spatial dimensions of most of the country. By some measures, suburbia is the most populated settlement type in the US; and yet the Census Bureau does not recognize it.

[3] Cohen, Darryl T., Geoffrey W. Hatchard, and Steven G. Wilson. Population Trends in Incorporated Places: 2003 to 2013. US Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, US Census Bureau, 2015.

Agriculture accounts for approximately 16.7% of US land use; the largest subsets are wheat and corn cultivation at 5.3% and 5.0%, respectively, followed by soybeans and cotton at 3.3% and 1.7%, according to 2015 data. Grassland and pasture makes up slightly more at around 16.9%.[5] Both agriculture land and grassland + pasture are concentrated in the middle of the country on the most productive soils; shrubland is mainly present in the western third of the country. Though agriculture takes up nearly 17% of land use, farms contributed only $136.7 billion to the national GDP (about 1%) in 2015.[6]

Like other major industrial sectors, American agriculture is moving through a period of hyper-consolidation. In 2001, farms of 1,000 acres or more represented only 5.6% of total farms but controlled 46.8% of all US cropland. By 2011, the proportion of large farms had remained steady at 5.6%, but their holdings had increased to 53.7% of total cropland.[7] (The stability of total farms is linked to the rise of "hobby farms"-small plots producing little in the way of commercially viable agricultural products, whose recent popularity has helped stabilize the number of small farms, as measured by the US Department of Agriculture.) An ever increasing share of the nation's food production is derived from large industrial farms. This consolidation and corporatization of agriculture has tracked with the doubling of the nation's food production since World War II and its growth into the largest exporter of food in the world.

Roughly a quarter of the entire US land area is covered in forest; around 5 percent is wetland, and around 3 percent is protected land. The forest is roughly equally divided between deciduous and evergreen; 0.1%, about 121,600 acres, is planted for Christmas trees.[8] Many of the national parks are located near or in areas categorized as forest.

The National Park System is comprised of 419 sites covering 84 million acres; the parks range in size from 13.2 million acres (the Alaskan wilderness of the Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve) to under 1,000 square feet (the Thaddeus Kosciuszko National Memorial, an eighteenth-century townhouse).[9] The creation of many of these large wilderness spaces involved the forced removal of the Indigenous populations residing on the lands; in some cases, entire tribes were forcibly removed to make way for new public lands and western homesteading programs.[10]

Wetlands have similarly been decimated following colonization; by one estimate, the United States lost over half of its wetlands between the 1780s and the 1980s.[11] One third of the total lost wetland area is in the Great Lakes megaregion, with much of the land having been drained and converted to agriculture.[12] Today, a significant portion of the Great Lakes and Gulf Coast megaregions remains wetlands, whereas the eastern US is predominantly forested. Protected land is relatively scarce in the central US; only 1.04% of Iowa, 1.6% of Nebraska, and less than 1% of Kansas is publicly owned.[13]

[10] Kantor, Isaac. "Ethnic Cleansing and America's Creation of National Parks." Pub. Land & Resources L. Rev. 28 (2007): 41.

[11] Dahl, Thomas E. "Wetlands loss since the revolution." National Wetlands Newsletter 12, no. 6 (1990).

[12] Dahl, Thomas E. "Wetlands loss since the revolution." National Wetlands Newsletter 12, no. 6 (1990).

The bulk of the US population's water supply comes from surface water sources; however, most of the country's land area is only supplied by underground aquifers. [JAB1] Unique in its reliance on surface water is the Great Lakes megaregion, which gets its name from the Great Lakes themselves-the largest system on Earth of surface freshwater by area, so large that it behaves in some ways more like a sea than a series of lakes.[14] The lakes cover 60,320,000 acres and contain about 21% of the world's surface fresh water, supplying more than 30 million people in the US with drinking water. This number is likely to grow both through increasing and in-migrating populations and through weakening of the Great Lakes Compact, the legal agreement which regulates the management and use of water within the Great Lakes Basin.[15] Immediately south of the Great Lakes is the Mississippi River Basin, the largest major drainage basin of the ten that cover the conterminous US.[16] Overall, 68% of the US population, mostly urban, relies on surface waters, while rural populations tend to rely on groundwater.[17]

Aquifer depletion is becoming a major issue in the US, with impacts that range from land subsidence to deterioration of water quality. One particularly vulnerable aquifer is the High Plains or Ogallala aquifer, which provides the water for 30% of all US irrigation.[22] If current withdrawal practices continue, this aquifer will be depleted by 2040.[23]

The productivity index of soil uses "taxonomic features or properties that tend to be associated with natural low or high soil productivity to rank soils."[24] The index considers organic matter content, cation-exchange capacity (CEC), and clay mineralogy. Only around a third of US soil is categorized as most productive, characterized by high organic matter content, high CEC, and the presence and activity of clay. While this soil is present throughout the US, it is concentrated in the upper Great Lakes megaregion and in areas of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. One order of productive soils, found in the grassland ecosystem between the Front Range and Great Lakes megaregions, is known as the "Mollisols." Mollisols are highly fertile soils with high levels of organic inputs caused by deep-rooting grasses. These grassland soils account for only 7% of ice-free land globally but make up approximately 21.5% of US soils.[25]

The productivity index does not account for soil contamination, which is a major issue in US soil health. The EPA created the Brownfields Program to identify and treat highly contaminated sites, for which "the expansion, redevelopment, or reuse. . . may be complicated by the presence or potential presence of a hazardous substance, pollutant, or contaminant."[26] The US has an estimated 425,000 brownfield sites totaling 5 million acres of abandoned industrial land.[27]

[24] Schaetzl, R.J., F.J. Krist Jr., and B.A. Miller. 2012. A taxonomically based ordinal estimate of soil productivity for landscape-scale analyses. Soil Science. 177:in press.

The four most common subsets of US crops are wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton. Wheat, the most common crop by land area, predominates in the western half of the country. Soybean cultivation occupies 20% of agricultural land and is widespread throughout the Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. There is a clear relationship between the relative productivity of US soils and the quantity and variety of crops planted in their regions.

Since 1935, the number of farms has decreased while their average size has increased, a phenomenon described as the consolidation of US agriculture.[28] As of the 2017 USDA census of agriculture, the 900 million acres of US farmland were distributed between 2.04 million farms, for a mean size of 441 acres; farms between 1 and 9.9 acres account for just 13.4% or the total farm operations, while farms greater than 2000 acres account for 4%.[29]

Corn is grown most intensely in and near the Great Lakes megaregion and across the eastern US. While corn generally represents less than 25% of the cropland in a given county, and makes up less than 5% of cropland in 41% of US counties, it remains the nation's second-largest crop by acreage. In its areas of highest concentration, corn is not grown as exclusively as wheat; the highest-producing counties typically devote only up to around 45% of their cropland to corn. On the other hand, corn production is relatively regionally concentrated; the states of Iowa and Illinois account for about 33% of all US-grown corn.[31] Corn agriculture contributes to pressures on water supplies; "87 percent of irrigated corn is grown in regions with high or extremely high water stress," according to World Resources Institute data.[32]

The majority of the 90 million total acres of US corn is used to produce either livestock feed or biofuels; ethanol production alone accounts for nearly 40% of total corn use.[33] The remainder is processed into food and industrial products, including sweeteners. Between 20% and 30% of the annual corn crop is exported.[34]

Cotton is a common textile fiber, accounting for a quarter of total world fiber use.[37] Cotton is the most concentrated of the four common US crops, making up 1% or more of total cropland in only 18% of counties and 30% or more in only 4.6% of counties. These high-cotton counties are primarily concentrated in the southern US, where cotton remains prominent due to shared environmental and sociopolitical histories-the cotton-friendly soil and environment and the legacy of slavery and the plantation system.

Water availability is a major issue facing cotton production; it takes 10,000 liters of water to produce 2.2 pounds of cotton (the amount required to produce a T-shirt).[38] In comparison, it takes only about 1,500 liters of water to produce 2.2 pounds of wheat.[39] Compounding this pressure, cotton is most commonly grown in some of the hottest and water-scarce regions of the US.

With a growing US human population and increasing consumer demand, more chickens are being bred, held in captivity, and killed than ever before. Chicken farming is highly concentrated, mostly running in a band across the South. Most US counties have little or no chicken farming, with 73.8% of counties reporting below 1 chicken per 100 acres or otherwise not reporting data. Only 10.2% of counties have over 5,000 chickens per 100 acres, and just 1.2% of counties have over 50,000 chickens per 100 acres. The highest density is in Gilmer County, Georgia, with over 275,000 chickens per 100 acres.

[54] "Poultry Sector at a Glance." USDA ERS - Sector at a Glance. U.S. Department of Agriculture. Accessed July 21, 2019.

Conservation practices have shifted over the past few decades from a focus on fortresslike patches of "protected lands" toward interconnected corridors that improve resiliency and enable species migrations. In partnership with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the Connectivity Conservation Specialist Group is working on global connectivity efforts, calling for "connectivity conservation [to link] landscapes/seascapes, reducing fragmentation and enabling migratory flows essential to a functioning and resilient system."[57]

In the US, eighteen large-scale conservation efforts overlap across the country (and over national borders) to improve habitat connectivity throughout the half of the country they occupy. The projects vary in size from 826,612 to 685,470,328 acres; these boundaries include protected, semi-protected, and not protected lands. The project with the highest proportion of protected lands is the proposed Big Bend-Rio Bravo International Park, with 24.6% protected; lowest is the Northern Great Plains at 0.6%.[58] On average, only 8.8% of each project's land area is fully protected and 84.7% has no protection. Eight projects cross the US-Canada border and three cross the US-Mexico border; the Western Wildway Network Priority Corridor Project, the largest of the projects, spans the entirety of North America, from Alaska to Mexico.

17% of US land is considered to be an ecological hotpot-one of "Earth's most biologically rich-yet threatened- terrestrial regions." There is little overlap between ecological hotspots and protected lands.[61] To qualify as a hotspot, an area must meet two criteria: it must contain 1,500 endemic vascular plant species; and it must have lost at least 70% of its primary vegetation-a common habitat category, especially for endemics, and thus a good marker for total biodiversity.[62]

US hotspots include the California floristic province and the North American coastal plain, both coastal regions. The California floristic province contains a wide variety of ecosystems, perhaps most famously the sequoia tree ecosystem, home to the endangered giant sequoia and coast redwood. Other threatened species inhabiting this hotspot include the endangered giant kangaroo rat, the desert slender salamander, and the critically endangered California condor.[63] This hotspot's main threats come from human activity and development, particularly agricultural expansion; only 25% of the hotspot's original vegetation remains.[64] The North American coastal plain, listed in 2016, is one of the newest hotspots. This hotspot is a fire-dependent region, and is threatened by fire suppression (which inhibits the cycle of the native vegetation), deforestation for agriculture, and infrastructure development. The climate crisis also now adds to the vulnerability of plants and animals in the hotspots.[65]

[63] Myers, Norman, Russell A. Mittermeier, Cristina G. Mittermeier, Gustavo AB Da Fonseca, and Jennifer Kent. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities." Nature 403, no. 6772 (2000): 853.

The entirety of the US was inhabited by Indigenous peoples before their displacement by European settler colonial regimes and the disease, violence, and coercion that they brought with them.[68]

The relationship between the United States and America's Indigenous tribes has been characterized by displacement, genocide, and violence, much of it borne out in the conflict over sovereignty and land ownership. Once occupying the entirety of the continent, tribal members now are sovereign over just 6.2% of the conterminous US, in the form of federally recognized tribal lands (also called reservations, rancherias, pueblos, and Indian colonies); the largest area of tribal land is the Navajo Nation, at over 15 million acres.[69] There is a clear pattern to the size and number of reservations that reflects the progression of settler colonialism. Intense tribal displacement and land theft left eastern tribal lands fragmented and small, whereas in the western US larger areas were set aside by the US government as tribal lands. Treaty rights have historically governed this partitioning, but the rights have always been only selectively applied.[70]

There are 326 reservations in the US, holdings of single and shared tribal oversight. Legal frameworks of tribal sovereignty recognize the right of Indigenous tribes to govern themselves, acting as domestic dependent nations within the area of the US.[71] The relationships between the US and tribal governments have been established through 375 treaties, laws, and policies shaping where and how tribal members could live in exchange for resettlement and self-government.[72]

There are currently 573 recognized tribes at the federal level, 63 tribes unrecognized at the federal level but recognized by a state (a situation allowed in 11 states), and 359 tribes (as of 2013) unrecognized by the government but which have petitioned for recognition.[73] A further unknown number have never petitioned, or have never been able to. As of the 2010 census, 5.2 million people in the US identified as American Indian and Alaska Native either alone or in combination.[74] Of this population, 22% live on reservations.[75]

In 2016, the highest-income areas, in which median household income was over $85,000, were clustered along the Northeast corridor, in California and Pacific Northwest tech hubs, and around interior cities. Low-income areas, in which median household income was less than $30,000, were most clustered in the Southeast, the Southwest, and the interior Northwest. The median annual income of a US household was $57,617, with the official poverty rate at 12.7%.[77]

Transmission lines connect the US, forming corridors that pulse in every direction across the continent. Energy plants are present across the US, with a heavy concentration on the East Coast; this concentration diffuses toward the Great Lakes and Texas Triangle megaregions. Further west, infrastructure is minimal, with the exception of the energy-dense West Coast.

The construction of the modern energy grid began in 1882 with the inauguration of the Pearl Street station in Manhattan. Over the next 130 years, the generation, transmission, and storage facilities comprising the nation's grid developed in two major thrusts: the late nineteenth-century "war of the currents," in which Thomas Edison (direct current) and Nikola Tesla (alternating current) competed for government contracts and private equity; and the private electricity company boom of the early twentieth century, which saw the proliferation of small, private, and unregulated electric utilities across the US. These generation and transmission systems and utilities came under stronger federal regulation in 1978 and have remained largely unchanged since then.[78]

There are more than four thousand universities in the US. These can be grouped into three broad categories: private colleges and universities; public and land grant institutions; and historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) and minority-serving institutions (MSIs).

The land grant institutions were a response to industrialization pressures in the late nineteenth century. The Morrill Acts of 1862 and 1890 granted federally controlled land to the states to establish and endow land grant colleges, which would "without excluding other scientific and classical studies, and including military tactics, [teach] such branches of learning as are related to agriculture and the mechanic arts."[81] Now mostly public universities, these schools have broadened their curriculums over time but tend to maintain strong connections to either agriculture or mechanics. One subset of land grant institutions are the tribal colleges and universities, authorized by the 1994 Elementary and Secondary Education Reauthorization Act, which focus on teaching, community outreach, and research in Indigenous communities.

HBCUs are institutions established before the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to serve the black community in response to the segregation of higher education. There are currently 101 HBCUs offering undergraduate and graduate education, largely concentrated in the Southeast, where segregation was historically most prevalent.

Settlement patterns in the second half of the twentieth century reached such a spatial extent to warrant a new unit of urbanization. Categorized as "megaregions," these enlarged, polycentric zones of urbanization are defined by complex interrelations in the following categories: environmental systems and topography; infrastructure systems; economic linkages; settlement patterns and land use; and shared culture and history.[82] Richard Florida has also proposed that megaregions can be defined by mapping continuous bands of electric light viewed from space at night.

There are eleven such recognized megaregions in the US: Cascadia, Northern California, Southern California, Arizona Sun Corridor, Front Range, Texas Triangle, Gulf Coast, Florida, Piedmont Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast.

Sea level rise is expected to radically reshape the physical and social geography of the coastal US. These maps draw on models developed by the sociologist and demographer Mathew Hauer, the first scholar to assess the number of structures-and therefore people-that can be expected to be inundated by sea level rise over the course of the twenty-first century.[83]

These maps are visualizations of this work, showing major trends in in-migration toward coastal cities and the gulf coast. East coast in-migration is concentrated in the following counties: Bronx and Kings in New York; Orange, Palm Beach, and Hillsborough in Florida; East Baton Rouge Parish in Louisiana; Harris and Travis in Texas; Los Angeles, Santa Cruz, and San Francisco in California; and Clark in Nevada.

These regions will be the primary receiving zones for climate refugees moving within the US. They do not incorporate the expected influx of foreign climate refugees.[84]

In-migration and out-migration patterns suggest that the US population is moving from cities to cities, crisscrossing the nation. Drawing on Mathew Hauer's work, these maps show that most people in the US who moved within the last decade moved from coastal counties, with the Seattle area a particularly major source of out-migration. The major East Coast out-migration counties are Nassau in New York; Ocean in New Jersey; Charleston in South Carolina; Broward, Miami-Dade, Lee, and Pinellas in Florida; and Jefferson Parish in Louisiana. West Coast counties include King in Washington and San Mateo and Orange in California. Many of the states with large out-migration populations also have large in-migration populations, but the populations are not moving within the state. See San Mateo, Orange, and Los Angeles in California; Pinellas, Lee, Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange, Palm Beach, and Hillsborough in Florida; Nassau, Bronx, and Kings in New York; and Jefferson and East Baton Rouge in Louisiana. Many of the out-migration counties are coastal counties already facing challenges from sea level rise.[85]

[85] Hauer, Mathew, Evans, Jason, and Mishra, Deepak. 2016. "Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States." Nature Climate Change, 6, 691-695. Accessed September 8, 2019.; and Hauer, Mathew. 2017. "Migration induced by sea level rise could reshape the US population landscape." Nature Climate Change, 7, pp. 321-325. Accessed September 8, 2019.

100 Million More Americans

The US population is projected to grow from 319 million in 2014 to 417 million in 2060-an increase of 98 million people in less than 50 years.[87] The US has gone through similar periods of population growth in the past: the post-World War II baby boom nearly doubled the population, from 132 million in 1940 to 240 million in 1990.[88] The population grew another 77 million between 1990 and 2015, to 319 million. Foreign-born persons made up 13% of the population in 2014 (43 million) and are expected to comprise 19% (78.2 million) by 2060.

US fertility rates are predicted to decline between 2014 and 2060. This is projected to result in a rising share of foreign-born people in the US.[89] The population will also be older than ever before, as baby boomers and their children age. The percentage of the population aged 65 or older will increase from 15% in 2014 to 24% in 2060, for both native-born and foreign-born. The "working age" (age 18-64) proportion of the population will decrease for both native-born and foreign-born, with the overall percentage decreasing from 62% to 57%.[90] Overall, the population is projected to be more diverse, with non-Hispanic whites projected to decrease from 62.2% of the US population in 2014 to 43.6% in 2060.[91] The Hispanic population will increase from 17.4% to 28.6%; the black population will increase from 12.4 to 13%; and the Asian population will increase from 5.2 to 9.1%. Those who identify as two or more races will more than double, from 2.8% to 5.7%.

Climate + Urbanization Projections

Individuals in the US use approximately four times the global average annual energy consumption. In 2017, the average American used 88.21 MWh of energy, against a global average of only 21.69 MWh.[95] Of this consumption, 80% came from fossil fuels, 9% from nuclear power, and 11% from renewable energy sources.[96] Of the renewable energy, only 3% is considered viable for future expansion: wind and solar. Much of the rest comes from hydroelectricity.

The next 100 million will need 8,645,008 GWh of energy per year if today's consumption patterns are maintained. Since US energy consumption per capita has been increasing (nearly tripling since the nineteen-fifties), then it seems likely that current patterns of consumption will continue, if not increase.[97] Few, if any, proposals for creating a clean energy grid for the US incorporate these population projections into their various buildout scenarios.

[96] "Figure 2f From: Irimia R, Gottschling M (2016) Taxonomic Revision of Rochefortia Sw. (Ehretiaceae, Boraginales). Biodiversity Data Journal 4: E7720. Https://doi.org/10.3897/BDJ.4.e7720." doi:10.3897/bdj.4.e7720.figure2f.

While coastal desalination is the most common form of desalination for potable water, brackish groundwater may offer a less energy intensive, and thus cheaper, source of water for desalination than seawater. There is approximately 35 times more brackish groundwater available than the total annual fresh groundwater withdrawal in the US.[111]

Not only is this a small percentage of carbon emissions, but most carbon offset, sequestration, and credit programs are ineffective, and may in fact be a net negative-as they allow people and organizations to continue to emit as usual, and may have a leakage effect whereby one area of land is conserved at the cost of another.[123]

The US emits 6,456.7 million metric tons of CO 2 equivalents annually-around 20 metric tons per person.[124] If a mature tree can absorb up to 21.77 kg of CO 2 a year, about 930 trees would be required to sequester the carbon emissions of one individual.[125] At this rate, the next 100 million people would need 93 billion new trees.

93 billion trees require land on which to grow. With 3.65 meters of spacing between trees, this would total 1,247,600 square kilometers or 308,288,674 acres of forest-a footprint equivalent to 15% of the total land area of the conterminous US. In 2017, 27% of US land was forest; this would need to increase to 15% by 2060 in order to sequester the carbon produced by the next 100 million; sequestering carbon for the total 2060 population of 417 million would require 62.6% of the total land of the conterminous US in addition to the current forest, for a total of 89.6% of the United States.

Accounting for estimated effects on crop growth of CO 2 fertilization and altered precipitation patterns, national crop yields will be reduced by 9.1% to 12.1% per degree Celsius increase in global mean surface temperature.[129] These calculations account for percent change in area-weighted yields for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton. The Midwest and Southern California, where a significant proportion of US agriculture takes place, will see a decrease of at least 50% of yields; The north and west of the country, from the Dakotas to Northern California, will see an increase of 45%.[130]

By the end of the twenty-first century, as many as 13.1 million people will have been displaced by sea level rise in the US-an average of 159,756 per year-and 6.8 million may be displaced by 2060. In 2017 alone, around 1 million people migrated inside the US due to climate-related events. In comparison, the Dust Bowl of the 1930s saw an estimated 3.5 million people migrate from the Great Plains. The number of migrants fleeing sea level rise in the US will equal 10 times the population displaced by Katrina.

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The 2100 Project: An Atlas for the Green New Deal

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This Atlas was conceived in relation to three intersecting issues. First, excess carbon in the atmosphere is changing the world's climate; sea levels are rising, temperatures are increasing, and destructive weather events are becoming more frequent. Second, because our systems of extraction, production and consumption are causing climate change, an incremental approach to the future is not an option.

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Certainty is on the tip of every climate activist's, scholar's, and writer's tongue these days. We are certain that we have only until 2030 to rapidly decarbonize the economy. We are certain that even if we do manage to meet this ambitious goal, sea levels will still rise another foot or so-demanding either that our cities do the same or that their people are relocated away from our shifting shorelines. We are certain that things are getting worse-promised, even, that they are somehow worse than we've imagined.

We are so certain, in part, because we have so many models telling us so many things about our now certain damnation. There are physical models of the Earth's systems, showing how we can expect oceanic and atmospheric forces to change under the various emissions-based scenarios developed by the IPCC. There are projective models of who might be displaced-and where they might go-as sea levels rise, temperatures increase, and the climate refugee crisis becomes impossible to ignore. There are predictive models of how various forms of climate adaptation might perform, often as instruments of flood risk mitigation. There are financial and economic models of how we might pay for a set of planetary transformations like decarbonization and adaptation. Increasingly, there are also simulation models of what it might mean to geoengineer the Earth's systems, either by spraying sulfates into the stratosphere or by rapidly deploying negative-emissions technologies that remove carbon from the air. We have seen the future, and it works-so long as the assumptions in our models are set just right.

Each model brings a new degree of precision and clarity to our climate imaginary. They help us make sense of which outcomes are probable and which are possible-and they imply their own ideas about desirability in the process. That winnowing of potential futures and choices can bring with it a sense of heightened certainty about how, when, and where things might unfold on a planet devoured by capitalism.

Though these models are an important tool for understanding how the future could or should be made manifest, they are not the only tool-even if we (designers, journalists, and broader publics beyond the climate science community) tend to treat them as such. We do this despite the vast degrees of uncertainty present in even our most basic physical models, to say nothing of our inability to model and imagine the sociopolitical, technical, and economic forces that will, ultimately, determine how much warming, mitigation, and adaptation we will have to live with.

The climate crisis is existential, replete with uncertainty, and happening all around us, all the time. Though we have mapped it extensively in this atlas, maps alone cannot tell this story. We need more tools: for making sense of the changing climate; for envisioning alternative futures that foreground what we might gain instead of only what we'll lose; and for stoking public imaginations and actions in ways that models, at least on their own, cannot. To adapt David Wallace-Wells's apocalyptic "The Uninhabitable Earth": it is, we promise, better than you think. Or at least it can be.

This need for a more pluralistic approach to how we navigate through and respond to the climate crisis is what the 2100 Project aims to address. Though physical, sociotechnic, and simulation models of the future will remain an important part of this conversation, our intervention is not about the precise forecasting of a future world reshaped by varying degrees of carbon emission. Rather, it is about backcasting -a method of scenario modeling working backwards from an ideal outcome or future-as a way of understanding a different set of potential futures that the models might be missing.

As the authors of this Atlas for the Green New Deal, the first component of the 2100 Project, we had three primary rationales for assembling this research. The first rationale relates to the idea of backcasting as it pertains to the principal historical analogues of the Green New Deal: FDR's New Deal and JFK's moon shot. We remain convinced that the window for massive, national-scale action on climate will open again soon, and we aim to use this project as a vehicle for generating new research into how those transformations might unfold. The second rationale is tied to the paucity of spatial design expertise and imagination within the current Green New Deal movement. Though it has necessarily been led by organizers, economists, policy experts and advocates, and others, the Green New Deal is the biggest design and environmental idea in a century, with the potential to revolutionize our buildings, landscapes, and public works in ways yet to be conceived. As faculty and graduate students at a prominent school of design, we feel an obligation to engage with the Green New Deal along these lines. And our third rationale for this atlas, and for the 2100 Project as a whole, is that no one else has attempted anything like it-to assemble all of the spatialized climate, land, and social models of the future in one place, synthesized and tightly curated, contextualized and coherently packaged. We also felt compelled to use this project to critique the notion of precision and certainty embedded in these models by representing them through pixelated maps. After all, the future is fuzzy. Our models should be too.

It's important to begin this work where the Green New Dealers have directed us, in the last two eras of true national-scale mobilization around a set of shared goals and ideals: the New Deal and the moon shot. The New Deal is often viewed as a single, coherent organizing framework developed by FDR and his advisers at the start of his administration-as a set of boxes to be checked as they rolled through the 1930s. But this is a fundamental misunderstanding of the improvisational and experimental nature of FDR's presidency. As Richard Hofstadter notes, "The New Deal will never be understood by anyone who looks for a single thread of policy, a far-reaching, far-seeing plan. It was a series of improvisations, many adopted very suddenly, many [of them] contradictory. Such unity as it had was in political strategy, not economics." It was a grand experiment in social democracy, one in which new agencies were created, new authorities and powers promulgated, and new financial resources marshaled to tackle the overlapping ecological, economic, and political crises of the day: the Dust Bowl and its forced migration of over three million farmers from the Midwest; the Great Depression; and the rise of fascism across the globe. Some initiatives, like the Tennessee Valley Authority, proved wildly successful and continue operating today. Other experiments failed or outlived their usefulness, folding during the mobilization for World War II. Some of these, including the Civilian Conservation Corps, which put more than 500,000 young people to work on soil restoration and other public lands projects at its peak; the Works Progress Administration, which built hundreds of airports, bridges, college campuses; and other public works projects; and the Resettlement Administration, which oversaw the Dust Bowl migration and built a series of pilot "greenbelt" towns, helped make the New Deal a built environment revolution in the United States.

This proved to be the last period in which strong national planning-including an expansive design bureaucracy-would be realized in the United States. Much of the rest of the 20th and 21st centuries was left up to the market. Within this market-driven context, newly elected President John F. Kennedy traveled to Houston in May 1961 to deliver his famous moon shot speech at Rice University. He implored the country to "choose to go to the Moon. . . not because it [it is] easy, but because [it is] hard." That speech, and the machinations that followed, set a wildly ambitious national goal without any clue how it might be achieved. Little of the technology necessary to make the trip existed in 1961. So, at JFK's direction, the federal government issued research and procurement contracts and reorganized NASA around the aim of getting to the Moon by the end of the decade, unsure of how-or if-it might ever truly become possible.

Of course, we did go to the Moon. One of the many spoils of the trip was Earthrise-an image of the Earth as an object and thus the first photographic evidence of the planet's physical boundaries. It would prove to be an iconic image, arriving in a milieu defined by Rachel Carson's Silent Spring (1962), Ian McHarg's Design With Nature (1969), and perhaps the largest and most sustained mass mobilization of the environmental movement in American history-a movement proving so strong that it compelled Richard Nixon to usher in what became known as the "environmental decade," when the National Environmental Policy Act, the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act ("Superfund") Act were all passed.

It's in this space where the Green New Deal seems likely to land-in the massive expansion of government as a force for good in the everyday lives of most people (like the New Deal), and in the marshalling of public procurement and standards to drive the private sector towards a shared set of goals (like the moon shot). It requires that we know the destination, but not the path; it requires a bit of backcasting.

This brings us back to the genesis of the 2100 Project. A window is about to open, forced ajar by young climate activists, for the mass mobilization of resources called for by the Green New Deal. When it does, we must be in a better position than we were in 2009 when the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, Barack Obama's "stimulus package") passed. ARRA required that investments in the built environment be tied to "shovel-ready" projects-a caveat that sounds reasonable until you realize that the only shovel-ready projects at the time were those that had been sitting on the books for years, unbuilt largely because they were bad ideas that no one wanted. We don't expect to develop all-or even any-of the Green New Deal's potential projects on our own. But we do hope that this atlas can serve as a platform to support those who will.

We also feel compelled to note that while we would have much preferred to build an atlas encompassing more than just the conterminous United States-one that could include Hawaii and Alaska, as well as Puerto Rico and the other territories-the spatial and climate data available to us simply did not permit it. As we continue to expand the 2100 Project, we're eager to find partners who can help us close these gaps and develop a richer understanding of how the climate crisis will transform all of the places where we live.

This Atlas for the Green New Deal is a product of our own milieu-the overlapping crises we find ourselves living through in 2020. For New Dealers, it was the environmental crisis of the Dust Bowl, the economic crisis of the Great Depression, and the political crisis of fascism that forced open the window for bold, national action. Green New Dealers face the environmental crisis of climate change, the economic crisis of late capitalism, and the political crisis of resurgent fascism across the globe and even here in the United States.

We're constantly told to go slow, to think small, and to tweak systems rather than transform them; that we are doomed, and all that's left to decide is the extent of our collective destruction. But the Green New Deal offers something more: a chance to go fast and to think big; to transform the structures that gave us the climate crisis and inequality; and to imagine a world in which things are, we promise, better than you think.

Inventory

The land area of the conterminous US is approximately 2.9 million square miles, or 1.9 billion acres. It can be broadly divided into seven land use categories: forest, shrubland, grassland + pasture, agriculture, wetlands, urban areas, and other uses. This map illustrates the nation's land composition as of 2017, revealing clear settlement and use patterns at the national scale; each pixel represents 98,765 acres. Along the East and West Coasts, forests and urban areas are prevalent. In the Midwest and the Great Plains, agriculture predominates, along with areas of grassland + pasture. Many of the nation's wetlands are concentrated in the Great Lakes and Gulf Coast megaregions.

These seven land use divisions are defined as follows: forest (land with trees greater than 5 meters tall and with a cover density of 20% or more); shrubland (areas with low woody vegetation); grassland + pasture (respectively, areas of primarily graminoid plants and areas of legumes and grasses planted for animal grazing, feed, or seed crops); agriculture (land dominated by crop production); wetland (areas where the water table is at, near, or above the land surface for part of most years); urban areas (urbanized areas of 50,000 or more people and urban clusters of between 2,500 and 50,000 people; and "other" land use categories, including desert and mountainous areas.[1]

[1] For a more detailed breakdown of US land cover, see Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, "National Land Cover Database 2016," MRLC.gov, accessed July 22, 2019, https://www.mrlc.gov/data.

Until the 1920 census, most people in the US lived in rural areas. Since then, the population in urban areas has steadily increased, both in total number and as a percentage of the national population. As of 2016, 82% of the US lived in urban areas-roughly 270 million people.[2] These urban areas make up around 2% of the US land area, with densities ranging from 27,781.2 people per square mile in New York City down to 1,000 people per square mile, the minimum density required for an urban designation.[3] In some areas (especially the Southwest), annexation is driving urban population growth rather than in-migration or an increase in density. Most urban areas are coastal or river port cities, continuing the historical pattern of human settlement along major bodies of water for ease of travel and trade; a minority of the US population lives in rural areas disconnected from historical water trade routes.

Rural areas are those territories not included within an urban area. Approximately 18% of people in the US live in rural areas; those who do are more likely to own their home, to live in their state of birth, and to have served in the military than their urban counterparts. They are also older, less likely to live in poverty, and less likely to have an advanced degree.[4] Since 1910, the rural population has remained stable in absolute terms, while the urban population has nearly quadrupled.

Much of suburbia is incorporated in the "urban" land use category. The justifications for this simplification from ease of data collection for the Census Bureau to socioeconomic theories of regional economic development that tie commuting patterns and wealth together. While these rationales are justified, they leave us with a highly imperfect measure of the character, quality, and function of the US built environment. Many of these suburban areas are treated as urban by the Census Bureau and the various federal agencies that demarcate funding and financing programs based on coarse definitions of urban and rural; yet their failure to capture the vast suburbanized landscape limits our ability to truly comprehend the spatial dimensions of most of the country. By some measures, suburbia is the most populated settlement type in the US; and yet the Census Bureau does not recognize it.

[3] Cohen, Darryl T., Geoffrey W. Hatchard, and Steven G. Wilson. Population Trends in Incorporated Places: 2003 to 2013. US Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, US Census Bureau, 2015.

Agriculture accounts for approximately 16.7% of US land use; the largest subsets are wheat and corn cultivation at 5.3% and 5.0%, respectively, followed by soybeans and cotton at 3.3% and 1.7%, according to 2015 data. Grassland and pasture makes up slightly more at around 16.9%.[5] Both agriculture land and grassland + pasture are concentrated in the middle of the country on the most productive soils; shrubland is mainly present in the western third of the country. Though agriculture takes up nearly 17% of land use, farms contributed only $136.7 billion to the national GDP (about 1%) in 2015.[6]

Like other major industrial sectors, American agriculture is moving through a period of hyper-consolidation. In 2001, farms of 1,000 acres or more represented only 5.6% of total farms but controlled 46.8% of all US cropland. By 2011, the proportion of large farms had remained steady at 5.6%, but their holdings had increased to 53.7% of total cropland.[7] (The stability of total farms is linked to the rise of "hobby farms"-small plots producing little in the way of commercially viable agricultural products, whose recent popularity has helped stabilize the number of small farms, as measured by the US Department of Agriculture.) An ever increasing share of the nation's food production is derived from large industrial farms. This consolidation and corporatization of agriculture has tracked with the doubling of the nation's food production since World War II and its growth into the largest exporter of food in the world.

Roughly a quarter of the entire US land area is covered in forest; around 5 percent is wetland, and around 3 percent is protected land. The forest is roughly equally divided between deciduous and evergreen; 0.1%, about 121,600 acres, is planted for Christmas trees.[8] Many of the national parks are located near or in areas categorized as forest.

The National Park System is comprised of 419 sites covering 84 million acres; the parks range in size from 13.2 million acres (the Alaskan wilderness of the Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve) to under 1,000 square feet (the Thaddeus Kosciuszko National Memorial, an eighteenth-century townhouse).[9] The creation of many of these large wilderness spaces involved the forced removal of the Indigenous populations residing on the lands; in some cases, entire tribes were forcibly removed to make way for new public lands and western homesteading programs.[10]

Wetlands have similarly been decimated following colonization; by one estimate, the United States lost over half of its wetlands between the 1780s and the 1980s.[11] One third of the total lost wetland area is in the Great Lakes megaregion, with much of the land having been drained and converted to agriculture.[12] Today, a significant portion of the Great Lakes and Gulf Coast megaregions remains wetlands, whereas the eastern US is predominantly forested. Protected land is relatively scarce in the central US; only 1.04% of Iowa, 1.6% of Nebraska, and less than 1% of Kansas is publicly owned.[13]

[10] Kantor, Isaac. "Ethnic Cleansing and America's Creation of National Parks." Pub. Land & Resources L. Rev. 28 (2007): 41.

[11] Dahl, Thomas E. "Wetlands loss since the revolution." National Wetlands Newsletter 12, no. 6 (1990).

[12] Dahl, Thomas E. "Wetlands loss since the revolution." National Wetlands Newsletter 12, no. 6 (1990).

The bulk of the US population's water supply comes from surface water sources; however, most of the country's land area is only supplied by underground aquifers. [JAB1] Unique in its reliance on surface water is the Great Lakes megaregion, which gets its name from the Great Lakes themselves-the largest system on Earth of surface freshwater by area, so large that it behaves in some ways more like a sea than a series of lakes.[14] The lakes cover 60,320,000 acres and contain about 21% of the world's surface fresh water, supplying more than 30 million people in the US with drinking water. This number is likely to grow both through increasing and in-migrating populations and through weakening of the Great Lakes Compact, the legal agreement which regulates the management and use of water within the Great Lakes Basin.[15] Immediately south of the Great Lakes is the Mississippi River Basin, the largest major drainage basin of the ten that cover the conterminous US.[16] Overall, 68% of the US population, mostly urban, relies on surface waters, while rural populations tend to rely on groundwater.[17]

Aquifer depletion is becoming a major issue in the US, with impacts that range from land subsidence to deterioration of water quality. One particularly vulnerable aquifer is the High Plains or Ogallala aquifer, which provides the water for 30% of all US irrigation.[22] If current withdrawal practices continue, this aquifer will be depleted by 2040.[23]

The productivity index of soil uses "taxonomic features or properties that tend to be associated with natural low or high soil productivity to rank soils."[24] The index considers organic matter content, cation-exchange capacity (CEC), and clay mineralogy. Only around a third of US soil is categorized as most productive, characterized by high organic matter content, high CEC, and the presence and activity of clay. While this soil is present throughout the US, it is concentrated in the upper Great Lakes megaregion and in areas of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. One order of productive soils, found in the grassland ecosystem between the Front Range and Great Lakes megaregions, is known as the "Mollisols." Mollisols are highly fertile soils with high levels of organic inputs caused by deep-rooting grasses. These grassland soils account for only 7% of ice-free land globally but make up approximately 21.5% of US soils.[25]

The productivity index does not account for soil contamination, which is a major issue in US soil health. The EPA created the Brownfields Program to identify and treat highly contaminated sites, for which "the expansion, redevelopment, or reuse. . . may be complicated by the presence or potential presence of a hazardous substance, pollutant, or contaminant."[26] The US has an estimated 425,000 brownfield sites totaling 5 million acres of abandoned industrial land.[27]

[24] Schaetzl, R.J., F.J. Krist Jr., and B.A. Miller. 2012. A taxonomically based ordinal estimate of soil productivity for landscape-scale analyses. Soil Science. 177:in press.

The four most common subsets of US crops are wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton. Wheat, the most common crop by land area, predominates in the western half of the country. Soybean cultivation occupies 20% of agricultural land and is widespread throughout the Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. There is a clear relationship between the relative productivity of US soils and the quantity and variety of crops planted in their regions.

Since 1935, the number of farms has decreased while their average size has increased, a phenomenon described as the consolidation of US agriculture.[28] As of the 2017 USDA census of agriculture, the 900 million acres of US farmland were distributed between 2.04 million farms, for a mean size of 441 acres; farms between 1 and 9.9 acres account for just 13.4% or the total farm operations, while farms greater than 2000 acres account for 4%.[29]

Corn is grown most intensely in and near the Great Lakes megaregion and across the eastern US. While corn generally represents less than 25% of the cropland in a given county, and makes up less than 5% of cropland in 41% of US counties, it remains the nation's second-largest crop by acreage. In its areas of highest concentration, corn is not grown as exclusively as wheat; the highest-producing counties typically devote only up to around 45% of their cropland to corn. On the other hand, corn production is relatively regionally concentrated; the states of Iowa and Illinois account for about 33% of all US-grown corn.[31] Corn agriculture contributes to pressures on water supplies; "87 percent of irrigated corn is grown in regions with high or extremely high water stress," according to World Resources Institute data.[32]

The majority of the 90 million total acres of US corn is used to produce either livestock feed or biofuels; ethanol production alone accounts for nearly 40% of total corn use.[33] The remainder is processed into food and industrial products, including sweeteners. Between 20% and 30% of the annual corn crop is exported.[34]

Cotton is a common textile fiber, accounting for a quarter of total world fiber use.[37] Cotton is the most concentrated of the four common US crops, making up 1% or more of total cropland in only 18% of counties and 30% or more in only 4.6% of counties. These high-cotton counties are primarily concentrated in the southern US, where cotton remains prominent due to shared environmental and sociopolitical histories-the cotton-friendly soil and environment and the legacy of slavery and the plantation system.

Water availability is a major issue facing cotton production; it takes 10,000 liters of water to produce 2.2 pounds of cotton (the amount required to produce a T-shirt).[38] In comparison, it takes only about 1,500 liters of water to produce 2.2 pounds of wheat.[39] Compounding this pressure, cotton is most commonly grown in some of the hottest and water-scarce regions of the US.

With a growing US human population and increasing consumer demand, more chickens are being bred, held in captivity, and killed than ever before. Chicken farming is highly concentrated, mostly running in a band across the South. Most US counties have little or no chicken farming, with 73.8% of counties reporting below 1 chicken per 100 acres or otherwise not reporting data. Only 10.2% of counties have over 5,000 chickens per 100 acres, and just 1.2% of counties have over 50,000 chickens per 100 acres. The highest density is in Gilmer County, Georgia, with over 275,000 chickens per 100 acres.

[54] "Poultry Sector at a Glance." USDA ERS - Sector at a Glance. U.S. Department of Agriculture. Accessed July 21, 2019.

Conservation practices have shifted over the past few decades from a focus on fortresslike patches of "protected lands" toward interconnected corridors that improve resiliency and enable species migrations. In partnership with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the Connectivity Conservation Specialist Group is working on global connectivity efforts, calling for "connectivity conservation [to link] landscapes/seascapes, reducing fragmentation and enabling migratory flows essential to a functioning and resilient system."[57]

In the US, eighteen large-scale conservation efforts overlap across the country (and over national borders) to improve habitat connectivity throughout the half of the country they occupy. The projects vary in size from 826,612 to 685,470,328 acres; these boundaries include protected, semi-protected, and not protected lands. The project with the highest proportion of protected lands is the proposed Big Bend-Rio Bravo International Park, with 24.6% protected; lowest is the Northern Great Plains at 0.6%.[58] On average, only 8.8% of each project's land area is fully protected and 84.7% has no protection. Eight projects cross the US-Canada border and three cross the US-Mexico border; the Western Wildway Network Priority Corridor Project, the largest of the projects, spans the entirety of North America, from Alaska to Mexico.

17% of US land is considered to be an ecological hotpot-one of "Earth's most biologically rich-yet threatened- terrestrial regions." There is little overlap between ecological hotspots and protected lands.[61] To qualify as a hotspot, an area must meet two criteria: it must contain 1,500 endemic vascular plant species; and it must have lost at least 70% of its primary vegetation-a common habitat category, especially for endemics, and thus a good marker for total biodiversity.[62]

US hotspots include the California floristic province and the North American coastal plain, both coastal regions. The California floristic province contains a wide variety of ecosystems, perhaps most famously the sequoia tree ecosystem, home to the endangered giant sequoia and coast redwood. Other threatened species inhabiting this hotspot include the endangered giant kangaroo rat, the desert slender salamander, and the critically endangered California condor.[63] This hotspot's main threats come from human activity and development, particularly agricultural expansion; only 25% of the hotspot's original vegetation remains.[64] The North American coastal plain, listed in 2016, is one of the newest hotspots. This hotspot is a fire-dependent region, and is threatened by fire suppression (which inhibits the cycle of the native vegetation), deforestation for agriculture, and infrastructure development. The climate crisis also now adds to the vulnerability of plants and animals in the hotspots.[65]

[63] Myers, Norman, Russell A. Mittermeier, Cristina G. Mittermeier, Gustavo AB Da Fonseca, and Jennifer Kent. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities." Nature 403, no. 6772 (2000): 853.

The entirety of the US was inhabited by Indigenous peoples before their displacement by European settler colonial regimes and the disease, violence, and coercion that they brought with them.[68]

The relationship between the United States and America's Indigenous tribes has been characterized by displacement, genocide, and violence, much of it borne out in the conflict over sovereignty and land ownership. Once occupying the entirety of the continent, tribal members now are sovereign over just 6.2% of the conterminous US, in the form of federally recognized tribal lands (also called reservations, rancherias, pueblos, and Indian colonies); the largest area of tribal land is the Navajo Nation, at over 15 million acres.[69] There is a clear pattern to the size and number of reservations that reflects the progression of settler colonialism. Intense tribal displacement and land theft left eastern tribal lands fragmented and small, whereas in the western US larger areas were set aside by the US government as tribal lands. Treaty rights have historically governed this partitioning, but the rights have always been only selectively applied.[70]

There are 326 reservations in the US, holdings of single and shared tribal oversight. Legal frameworks of tribal sovereignty recognize the right of Indigenous tribes to govern themselves, acting as domestic dependent nations within the area of the US.[71] The relationships between the US and tribal governments have been established through 375 treaties, laws, and policies shaping where and how tribal members could live in exchange for resettlement and self-government.[72]

There are currently 573 recognized tribes at the federal level, 63 tribes unrecognized at the federal level but recognized by a state (a situation allowed in 11 states), and 359 tribes (as of 2013) unrecognized by the government but which have petitioned for recognition.[73] A further unknown number have never petitioned, or have never been able to. As of the 2010 census, 5.2 million people in the US identified as American Indian and Alaska Native either alone or in combination.[74] Of this population, 22% live on reservations.[75]

In 2016, the highest-income areas, in which median household income was over $85,000, were clustered along the Northeast corridor, in California and Pacific Northwest tech hubs, and around interior cities. Low-income areas, in which median household income was less than $30,000, were most clustered in the Southeast, the Southwest, and the interior Northwest. The median annual income of a US household was $57,617, with the official poverty rate at 12.7%.[77]

Transmission lines connect the US, forming corridors that pulse in every direction across the continent. Energy plants are present across the US, with a heavy concentration on the East Coast; this concentration diffuses toward the Great Lakes and Texas Triangle megaregions. Further west, infrastructure is minimal, with the exception of the energy-dense West Coast.

The construction of the modern energy grid began in 1882 with the inauguration of the Pearl Street station in Manhattan. Over the next 130 years, the generation, transmission, and storage facilities comprising the nation's grid developed in two major thrusts: the late nineteenth-century "war of the currents," in which Thomas Edison (direct current) and Nikola Tesla (alternating current) competed for government contracts and private equity; and the private electricity company boom of the early twentieth century, which saw the proliferation of small, private, and unregulated electric utilities across the US. These generation and transmission systems and utilities came under stronger federal regulation in 1978 and have remained largely unchanged since then.[78]

There are more than four thousand universities in the US. These can be grouped into three broad categories: private colleges and universities; public and land grant institutions; and historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) and minority-serving institutions (MSIs).

The land grant institutions were a response to industrialization pressures in the late nineteenth century. The Morrill Acts of 1862 and 1890 granted federally controlled land to the states to establish and endow land grant colleges, which would "without excluding other scientific and classical studies, and including military tactics, [teach] such branches of learning as are related to agriculture and the mechanic arts."[81] Now mostly public universities, these schools have broadened their curriculums over time but tend to maintain strong connections to either agriculture or mechanics. One subset of land grant institutions are the tribal colleges and universities, authorized by the 1994 Elementary and Secondary Education Reauthorization Act, which focus on teaching, community outreach, and research in Indigenous communities.

HBCUs are institutions established before the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to serve the black community in response to the segregation of higher education. There are currently 101 HBCUs offering undergraduate and graduate education, largely concentrated in the Southeast, where segregation was historically most prevalent.

Settlement patterns in the second half of the twentieth century reached such a spatial extent to warrant a new unit of urbanization. Categorized as "megaregions," these enlarged, polycentric zones of urbanization are defined by complex interrelations in the following categories: environmental systems and topography; infrastructure systems; economic linkages; settlement patterns and land use; and shared culture and history.[82] Richard Florida has also proposed that megaregions can be defined by mapping continuous bands of electric light viewed from space at night.

There are eleven such recognized megaregions in the US: Cascadia, Northern California, Southern California, Arizona Sun Corridor, Front Range, Texas Triangle, Gulf Coast, Florida, Piedmont Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast.

Sea level rise is expected to radically reshape the physical and social geography of the coastal US. These maps draw on models developed by the sociologist and demographer Mathew Hauer, the first scholar to assess the number of structures-and therefore people-that can be expected to be inundated by sea level rise over the course of the twenty-first century.[83]

These maps are visualizations of this work, showing major trends in in-migration toward coastal cities and the gulf coast. East coast in-migration is concentrated in the following counties: Bronx and Kings in New York; Orange, Palm Beach, and Hillsborough in Florida; East Baton Rouge Parish in Louisiana; Harris and Travis in Texas; Los Angeles, Santa Cruz, and San Francisco in California; and Clark in Nevada.

These regions will be the primary receiving zones for climate refugees moving within the US. They do not incorporate the expected influx of foreign climate refugees.[84]

In-migration and out-migration patterns suggest that the US population is moving from cities to cities, crisscrossing the nation. Drawing on Mathew Hauer's work, these maps show that most people in the US who moved within the last decade moved from coastal counties, with the Seattle area a particularly major source of out-migration. The major East Coast out-migration counties are Nassau in New York; Ocean in New Jersey; Charleston in South Carolina; Broward, Miami-Dade, Lee, and Pinellas in Florida; and Jefferson Parish in Louisiana. West Coast counties include King in Washington and San Mateo and Orange in California. Many of the states with large out-migration populations also have large in-migration populations, but the populations are not moving within the state. See San Mateo, Orange, and Los Angeles in California; Pinellas, Lee, Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange, Palm Beach, and Hillsborough in Florida; Nassau, Bronx, and Kings in New York; and Jefferson and East Baton Rouge in Louisiana. Many of the out-migration counties are coastal counties already facing challenges from sea level rise.[85]

[85] Hauer, Mathew, Evans, Jason, and Mishra, Deepak. 2016. "Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States." Nature Climate Change, 6, 691-695. Accessed September 8, 2019.; and Hauer, Mathew. 2017. "Migration induced by sea level rise could reshape the US population landscape." Nature Climate Change, 7, pp. 321-325. Accessed September 8, 2019.

100 Million More Americans

The US population is projected to grow from 319 million in 2014 to 417 million in 2060-an increase of 98 million people in less than 50 years.[87] The US has gone through similar periods of population growth in the past: the post-World War II baby boom nearly doubled the population, from 132 million in 1940 to 240 million in 1990.[88] The population grew another 77 million between 1990 and 2015, to 319 million. Foreign-born persons made up 13% of the population in 2014 (43 million) and are expected to comprise 19% (78.2 million) by 2060.

US fertility rates are predicted to decline between 2014 and 2060. This is projected to result in a rising share of foreign-born people in the US.[89] The population will also be older than ever before, as baby boomers and their children age. The percentage of the population aged 65 or older will increase from 15% in 2014 to 24% in 2060, for both native-born and foreign-born. The "working age" (age 18-64) proportion of the population will decrease for both native-born and foreign-born, with the overall percentage decreasing from 62% to 57%.[90] Overall, the population is projected to be more diverse, with non-Hispanic whites projected to decrease from 62.2% of the US population in 2014 to 43.6% in 2060.[91] The Hispanic population will increase from 17.4% to 28.6%; the black population will increase from 12.4 to 13%; and the Asian population will increase from 5.2 to 9.1%. Those who identify as two or more races will more than double, from 2.8% to 5.7%.

Climate + Urbanization Projections

Individuals in the US use approximately four times the global average annual energy consumption. In 2017, the average American used 88.21 MWh of energy, against a global average of only 21.69 MWh.[95] Of this consumption, 80% came from fossil fuels, 9% from nuclear power, and 11% from renewable energy sources.[96] Of the renewable energy, only 3% is considered viable for future expansion: wind and solar. Much of the rest comes from hydroelectricity.

The next 100 million will need 8,645,008 GWh of energy per year if today's consumption patterns are maintained. Since US energy consumption per capita has been increasing (nearly tripling since the nineteen-fifties), then it seems likely that current patterns of consumption will continue, if not increase.[97] Few, if any, proposals for creating a clean energy grid for the US incorporate these population projections into their various buildout scenarios.

[96] "Figure 2f From: Irimia R, Gottschling M (2016) Taxonomic Revision of Rochefortia Sw. (Ehretiaceae, Boraginales). Biodiversity Data Journal 4: E7720. Https://doi.org/10.3897/BDJ.4.e7720." doi:10.3897/bdj.4.e7720.figure2f.

While coastal desalination is the most common form of desalination for potable water, brackish groundwater may offer a less energy intensive, and thus cheaper, source of water for desalination than seawater. There is approximately 35 times more brackish groundwater available than the total annual fresh groundwater withdrawal in the US.[111]

Not only is this a small percentage of carbon emissions, but most carbon offset, sequestration, and credit programs are ineffective, and may in fact be a net negative-as they allow people and organizations to continue to emit as usual, and may have a leakage effect whereby one area of land is conserved at the cost of another.[123]

The US emits 6,456.7 million metric tons of CO 2 equivalents annually-around 20 metric tons per person.[124] If a mature tree can absorb up to 21.77 kg of CO 2 a year, about 930 trees would be required to sequester the carbon emissions of one individual.[125] At this rate, the next 100 million people would need 93 billion new trees.

93 billion trees require land on which to grow. With 3.65 meters of spacing between trees, this would total 1,247,600 square kilometers or 308,288,674 acres of forest-a footprint equivalent to 15% of the total land area of the conterminous US. In 2017, 27% of US land was forest; this would need to increase to 15% by 2060 in order to sequester the carbon produced by the next 100 million; sequestering carbon for the total 2060 population of 417 million would require 62.6% of the total land of the conterminous US in addition to the current forest, for a total of 89.6% of the United States.

Accounting for estimated effects on crop growth of CO 2 fertilization and altered precipitation patterns, national crop yields will be reduced by 9.1% to 12.1% per degree Celsius increase in global mean surface temperature.[129] These calculations account for percent change in area-weighted yields for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton. The Midwest and Southern California, where a significant proportion of US agriculture takes place, will see a decrease of at least 50% of yields; The north and west of the country, from the Dakotas to Northern California, will see an increase of 45%.[130]

By the end of the twenty-first century, as many as 13.1 million people will have been displaced by sea level rise in the US-an average of 159,756 per year-and 6.8 million may be displaced by 2060. In 2017 alone, around 1 million people migrated inside the US due to climate-related events. In comparison, the Dust Bowl of the 1930s saw an estimated 3.5 million people migrate from the Great Plains. The number of migrants fleeing sea level rise in the US will equal 10 times the population displaced by Katrina.

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The 2100 Project: An Atlas for the Green New Deal

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This Atlas was conceived in relation to three intersecting issues. First, excess carbon in the atmosphere is changing the world's climate; sea levels are rising, temperatures are increasing, and destructive weather events are becoming more frequent. Second, because our systems of extraction, production and consumption are causing climate change, an incremental approach to the future is not an option.

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CO2-Abdruck des eigenen Essens ausrechnen

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Unilever Food Solutions - Visit Your Local Site | Unilever Food Solutions

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We believe a Foodservice Business Thrives only when the People who work there Thrive 👨🏽‍🍳 Food Trends/ Chef Training / Professional Products - order online & save.

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Typologie von Prof. Reinhold Leinfelder (@rleinf), FU Berlin & Anthropocene Working Group
Erste Unterrichtsideen: Einordnung der eigenen Haltung, Zuordnung von Zitaten aus den Medien, Entwicklung von Gegenargumenten

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Drastischer Impuls zum Halbjahresthema

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Ökonom prangert klimafeindlichen Lebensstil an "Die Mehrheit lebt wie ökologische Vandalen"

Flugscham, Plastikverzicht, Demonstrationen fürs Klima: Die Bürger denken immer ökologischer. Oder nicht? Der Ökonom Niko Paech beobachtet, dass ausgerechnet jetzt die Nachfrage nach dekadentem Luxus wächst.

Vor der Weltklimakonferenz bescheinigte Paech vielen Bürgern, sich über die fatalen umweltschädlichen Folgen ihres Lebensstils selbst zu täuschen. Inmitten der Klagerufe über die Klimakrise wachse ausgerechnet die Nachfrage nach dekadentem Luxus am stärksten, der einen immensen Ausstoß klimaschädlicher Treibhausgase mit sich bringe, sagte der Ökonom von der Universität Siegen der Nachrichtenagentur dpa.

"Das sind Kreuzfahrten, das sind SUVs, das ist der Luftverkehr, die Digitalelektronik und die Nachfrage nach noch mehr Wohnraum." Dies sei reiner Komfort, der sich nicht als Befriedigung essenzieller Grundbedürfnisse rechtfertigen lasse. "Hier offenbart sich die Lebenslüge einer Gesellschaft, deren Mehrheit meint, sie sei klimakompetent, aber lebt wie ökologische Vandalen."

"Wir haben nichts, aber auch gar nichts erreicht"

Die Uno- Klimakonferenz, die am Montag in Madrid beginnt, berät darüber, wie sich die Erderhitzung auf ein erträgliches Maß begrenzen lässt, ohne dass Ökosysteme in wenigen Jahrzehnten kollabieren.

Paech sagte, nötig sei ein radikales Umsteuern, um den Ausstoß von Treibhausgasen drastisch zu senken - und zwar kurzfristig. Seit Jahrzehnten werde versucht, das Wirtschaftswachstum von Umweltschäden aller Art zu entkoppeln. "Und wir haben nichts, aber auch gar nichts erreicht."

Unabdingbar sei daher nun nicht nur eine Wirtschaft ohne Wachstum, sondern ein Rückbauprogramm. Das sei aber kein Marsch in die Askese oder ins Mittelalter, sondern könne verstanden werden als eine Befreiung vom Überfluss.

"Vordringlich ist der Rückbau einer Mobilität, die mit dekadentem Luxus korrespondiert und dabei Massen an Öl verbraucht. Es gibt kein Menschenrecht darauf, eine Kreuzfahrt zu buchen. Es gibt kein Menschenrecht darauf, Urlaub mit dem Flugzeug zu machen." Es existierten aber unendlich viele Möglichkeiten, hier in Europa Urlaub ohne Kerosin zu verbringen.

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Niko Paech: Ökonom sagt, viele leben wie "ökologische Vandalen" - DER SPIEGEL - Wissenschaft

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Flugscham, Plastikverzicht, Demonstrationen fürs Klima: Die Bürger denken immer ökologischer. Oder nicht? Der Ökonom Niko Paech beobachtet, dass ausgerechnet jetzt die Nachfrage nach dekadentem Luxus wächst. Vor der Weltklimakonferenz bescheinigte Paech vielen Bürgern, sich über die fatalen umweltschädlichen Folgen ihres Lebensstils selbst zu täuschen.

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Satirischer Film zur Plastikvermüllung der Meere

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The Majestic Plastic Bag - A Mockumentary

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Comic (englisch) des WBGU zum Download

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Der WBGU begründet in diesem Bericht die dringende Notwendigkeit einer post-fossilen Wirtschaftsweise, zeigt zugleich die Machbarkeit der Wende zur Nachhaltigkeit auf und präsentiert zehn konkrete Maßnahmenbündel zur Beschleunigung des erforderlichen Umbaus.

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Der WBGU begründet in diesem Bericht die dringende Notwendigkeit einer post-fossilen Wirtschaftsweise, zeigt zugleich die Machbarkeit der Wende zur Nachhaltigkeit auf und präsentiert zehn konkrete Maßnahmenbündel zur Beschleunigung des erforderlichen Umbaus.

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Tipping Points / Kipp-Punkte: Aktueller Nature-Beitrag

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Tipping Points / Kipp-Punkte: Aktueller Nature-Beitrag

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Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against

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The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible climate changes must compel political and economic action on emissions.

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Domino-Effekt: Tipping Points / Kipp-Punkte im Zusammenhang

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Domino-Effekt: Tipping Points / Kipp-Punkte im Zusammenhang

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Infografik, via: https://media.nature.com/w800/magazine-assets/d41586-019-03595-0/d41586-019-03595-0_17429034.jpg

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Öffentliche Ausgaben für eine Wohnung in der Stadt vs in Suburbia (Bezug: USA)

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Öffentliche Ausgaben für eine Wohnung in der Stadt vs in Suburbia (Bezug: USA)

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Infografik, via: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKb9XXJUYAEBwcP?format=jpg&name=medium

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Fahrradzentriertes Mobilitätskonzept in den NL

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Fahrradzentriertes Mobilitätskonzept in den NL

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Twitter-Thread zum Thema.
Klick: https://twitter.com/modacitylife/status/1197836738246455296

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81% of the Dutch population lives within a 20 minute pedal of a rail station.

By unlocking the bike-train combination, residents are given access to the same housing and employment opportunities, and freed from the burden of car dependency.

A cycling city is an affordable city.

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81% of the Dutch population lives within a 20 minute pedal of a rail station.

By unlocking the bike-train combination, residents are given access to the same housing and employment opportunities, and freed from the burden of car dependency.

A cycling city is an affordable city. https://t.co/ya1gHu6eZp

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props_source.data.text
81% of the Dutch population lives within a 20 minute pedal of a rail station.

By unlocking the bike-train combination, residents are given access to the same housing and employment opportunities, and freed from the burden of car dependency.

A cycling city is an affordable city. https://t.co/ya1gHu6eZp

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.original_text
81% of the Dutch population lives within a 20 minute pedal of a rail station.

By unlocking the bike-train combination, residents are given access to the same housing and employment opportunities, and freed from the burden of car dependency.

A cycling city is an affordable city. https://t.co/ya1gHu6eZp

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.text
81% of the Dutch population lives within a 20 minute pedal of a rail station.

By unlocking the bike-train combination, residents are given access to the same housing and employment opportunities, and freed from the burden of car dependency.

A cycling city is an affordable city.

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5 Prinzipien nachhaltiger Lebensmittel und Landwirtschft

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5 Prinzipien nachhaltiger Lebensmittel und Landwirtschft

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Diagramm und Text

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Eating locally grown food is good for your body and the environment

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Farming in a sustainable way has advantages for all ecosystems and organisms, even us. Here's why eating local and seasonal produce is a key part of sustainable agriculture.

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Zur Klimabilanz der Modeindustrie im Globalen Norden

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Zur Klimabilanz der Modeindustrie im Globalen Norden

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Fashion produces more emissions than all international flights and shipping combined.

📕 Read more: https://t.co/s8DeJh2a8f

# data[].attributes.wish_content.attachment_props.original_text
Fashion produces more emissions than all international flights and shipping combined.

📕 Read more: https://t.co/s8DeJh2a8f https://t.co/rT9wCplayu

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props_source.data.text
Fashion produces more emissions than all international flights and shipping combined.

📕 Read more: https://t.co/s8DeJh2a8f https://t.co/rT9wCplayu

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.original_text
Fashion produces more emissions than all international flights and shipping combined.

📕 Read more: https://t.co/s8DeJh2a8f https://t.co/rT9wCplayu

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.text
Fashion produces more emissions than all international flights and shipping combined.

📕 Read more: https://t.co/s8DeJh2a8f

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Welt-Artikel

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Wirtschaft Nordostpassage

Das Eis am Nordpol schmilzt und macht die einst unzugängliche Nordostpassage für Frachtschiffe frei. Im harten Wettbewerb der Reedereien kann die schnellere Route zum entscheidenden Faktor werden. Doch dabei gerät ein riesiges Ökosystem in Gefahr.

Das durchschnittliche Reisetempo des Tankers „Korolev Prospect" auf der Fahrt betrug zwölf Knoten, das sind 22 Kilometer pro Stunde. Auf hoher See ist das kein Rekordtempo. Doch auf der Route, die der Flüssiggastanker gewählt hatte, ist dies einmalig: Zum ersten Mal überhaupt hat sich ein mit Flüssiggas angetriebenes Frachtschiff mit einer Tragfähigkeit von gut 113.000 Tonnen innerhalb von gut einer Woche auf der sogenannten Nordostpassage durch das Eismeer gekämpft.

Mit diesen Schiffen transportiert die russische Reederei Sowkomflot das Flüssiggas LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) aus den Gasfeldern Sibiriens in ferne Länder. Startpunkt ist der Hafen Sabetta unweit der riesigen Gasvorkommen auf der Halbinsel Jamal.

Die im vergangenen Februar in Dienst gestellte „Korolev Prospect" ist bei einer Länge von 250 Metern und einer Breite von 44 Metern ein Schiffsriese. Ausgezeichnet ist der Tanker mit der Eisklasse 1A, über die früher nur Eisbrecher verfügten. Das bedeutet, dass sich das Schiff ohne fremde Hilfe durch Eisschichten von bis zu 2,10 Meter Dicke fortbewegen kann.

Dadurch kann die „Korolev Prospect" als eines der ersten großen Tankschiffe die Nordostpassage entlang der russischen und sibirischen Küsten für sechs Monate von Juli bis Dezember und die Nordwestpassage an Kanada vorbei sogar das ganze Jahr über nutzen. Eis ist natürlich auch dann vorhanden, doch in der Zeit ist die Eisdecke nicht komplett geschlossen.

90 Prozent des Welthandels laufen per Schiff

Über kaum ein anderes Thema wird derzeit in der internationalen Schifffahrt derart hitzig diskutiert wie über die Schiffspassagen durch das Nordmeer. Wer dort fährt, verkürzt den Handelsweg nach Asien um etwa zehn Tage und damit um ein Drittel. Statt des weiten Weges entlang europäischer Küsten und durch den Sueskanal geht es direkt an Russland vorbei gen Osten.

Hohe 90 Prozent des Welthandels werden über die Schifffahrt abgewickelt. Veränderungen der Rahmenbedingungen - selbst wenn sie durch die Erderwärmung hervorgerufen werden - lösen Kettenreaktionen aus. In diesem Fall sind es die vergleichsweise milden Temperaturen im Sommer und der damit verbundene Rückgang der Eisschichten am Nordpol. Dies macht in der früher für die Handelsflotte unzugänglichen Region nun für immer mehr Wochen im Jahr eine Schiffspassage möglich.

Doch den wirtschaftlichen Vorteilen stehen der Einfluss auf die Umwelt und vielfältige Risiken gegenüber. Schiffsabgase bedeuten enorme Umweltbelastungen. Gut zwei Prozent der weltweiten Kohlendioxidemissionen stammen von der Schifffahrt.

Naturschützer warnen zudem vor Gefahren für das Meeresleben bis hin zu Kollisionen der Riesenschiffe etwa mit Belugawalen oder Blauwalen. Erste Organisationen fordern nun, die existierenden Ausschlusszonen am Nordpol auszuweiten und größere Schutzgebiete zu schaffen.

Internationale Konzerne versprechen sich von dem verkürzten Versorgungsweg zu ihren asiatischen Produktionsstätten oder Zulieferbetrieben wirtschaftliche Vorteile. Die von ihnen beauftragten Reedereien wiederum stehen im harten Wettbewerb. Fünf große Unternehmen - Maersk, MSC, CMA-CGM, Cosco und Hapag-Lloyd - überbieten sich mit immer größeren Schiffen und unterbieten sich in einem harten Preiskampf. In diesem Rennen kann die Passage durch das Eismeer zum bestimmenden Faktor werden.

Vorteile wie die Ersparnis von Treibstoff für die Schiffsmotoren gehen rasch in den Millionen-Euro-Bereich pro Schiffseinsatz. Jeder Tag, an dem ein großes Frachtschiff unterwegs ist, verursacht Kosten von mindestens 100.000 Euro. Auch dies ist ein Effekt der Schiffsroute durch das Eismeer: Wird weniger Schiffstreibstoff eingesetzt, sinkt die Menge an Schadstoffen aus dem Maschinenbetrieb.

Nun hat die internationale Politik das Thema entdeckt. Emmanuel Macron hat im Nachgang des jüngsten G-7-Treffens die großen Reedereien dazu aufgefordert, die Nordpassagen nicht als regelmäßige Handelsrouten zu nutzen. Die erste Reaktion auf den Wunsch des französischen Präsidenten kam prompt von der größten Containerreederei des Landes, CMA-CGM aus Marseille.

Der Vorstandsvorsitzende Rodolphe Saadé kündigte nach Informationen des Schifffahrtsportals GCaptain an, dass keines seiner Schiffe diese Routen befahren werde. Dies gelte trotz „des wesentlichen Wettbewerbsvorteils", den die Strecke den Schiffslinien biete. Als Grund für die Zurückhaltung von CMA-CGM zitiert der Manager die Gefahren, denen das „einzigartige natürliche ökologische System des Nordmeeres und seiner Meerestiere" durch eine regelmäßige Schifffahrt ausgesetzt werden würde.

Unterstützung kommt aus einem besonders betroffenen Wirtschaftsbereich. Vor wenigen Wochen haben die Textilhersteller Nike, H&M, Armani und Chanel einen Pakt geschlossen, der ihren Einfluss auf die Umwelt verringern helfen soll. Durch die Produktion dieser Unternehmen in Asien zählt dazu vor allem auch die globale Containerschifffahrt.

Ganz anders verhalten sich die russische Administration und Wirtschaft. Laut einer Wirtschaftsstatistik rechnet das Land damit, dass sich das Transportaufkommen über die Eismeerpassagen von derzeit rund zehn Millionen Tonnen Gütern bis zum Jahr 2022 vervierfachen wird.

Um dies zu fördern, rammen von Atomkraft angetriebene Eisbrecher in den Sommermonaten die Eisrinnen am Nordpol frei und führen internationale Frachtschiffe durch das Packeis. Die Passagen sind ein wichtiger Devisenbringer: Russland nimmt für jede Fahrt eine Gebühr in sechsstelliger Dollar-Höhe. Begründet wird dies damit, dass die Behörde für die Navigation auf der Nordostpassage verantwortlich ist.

In Deutschland heißt es bei Hapag-Lloyd dazu: „Wir haben derzeit keine derartigen Pläne." Im Moment nutze die Reederei weder die Nordwest- noch die Nordostpassage. Im Jahresverlauf sei die Zeit einer eisfreien Passage zu kurz, um über diese Route einen Liniendienst betreiben zu können. Zudem gebe es Einschränkungen, was den Tiefgang der Schiffe und damit die Wirtschaftlichkeit betreffe. Die großen Containerschiffe der Hamburger Schifffahrtslinie fahren mit 20.000 Containern an Bord, voll beladen reicht der Schiffsboden bis zu 14 Meter unter die Wasseroberfläche.

Im Nachbarland Dänemark beschäftigen sich Schifffahrtsunternehmen bereits mit dem aufkommenden Trend. Die größte Containerreederei der Welt, Maersk aus Kopenhagen, hat vor knapp einem Jahr eine Testfahrt über das Nordmeer abgeschlossen. Allerdings hieß es danach, dass der nördliche Seeweg „derzeit keine praktikable Alternative" zu den bestehenden Ost-West-Routen sei. Weitere Entwicklungen sind offen.

Die Veränderungen im Eismeer werden Folgen haben. Forscher etwa des Alfred-Wegener-Instituts erwarten, dass der Nordpol schon in den 2040er-Jahren für mehrere Wochen im Jahr eisfrei sein wird. Das bedeutet auch, dass die Bedingungen für die Schifffahrt einfacher werden.

Zugelassen sind die Passagen schon lange Zeit. Bereits im Jahr 1967 hat die Internationale Schifffahrtsorganisation (IMO) die Nordostpassage als Schiffsroute freigegeben. Im vergangenen Jahr wurden weitere Genehmigungen für die Beringsee vor Alaska erteilt.

Noch allerdings sind diese Schiffsreisen selten: Im Jahr 2017 nutzten 27 Frachtschiffe die Nordostpassage als Transitweg. Hinzu kamen deutlich mehr Versorgungsfahrten, deren Zielpunkte etwa an den Öl- und Gasfeldern der Region lagen. Genannt wird diese Zahl von dem Datenanbieter Drift+Noise Polar Services aus Bremen. Zum Vergleich: Im selben Jahr befuhren 17.550 Handelsschiffe den Sueskanal und nahmen den weiten Seeweg gen Osten.

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Schifffahrt: Der Streit um die Nordostpassage - WELT

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Wirtschaft Nordostpassage Das Eis am Nordpol schmilzt und macht die einst unzugängliche Nordostpassage für Frachtschiffe frei. Im harten Wettbewerb der Reedereien kann die schnellere Route zum entscheidenden Faktor werden. Doch dabei gerät ein riesiges Ökosystem in Gefahr. Das durchschnittliche Reisetempo des Tankers „Korolev Prospect" auf der Fahrt betrug zwölf Knoten, das sind 22 Kilometer pro Stunde.

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Twitter-Thread zur IW-Regionalstudie

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Ein Thread zur #IWRegionalstudie die wir gestern in Berlin vorgestellt haben und die von den Medien stark aufgegriffen wurde

Die Studie identifiziert 19 Regionen in Deutschland, die akute Probleme haben bei
1. Demographie
2. Wirtschaft 
3. Infrastruktur

https://t.co/Saps3RmB8x

# data[].attributes.wish_content.attachment_props.original_text
Ein Thread zur #IWRegionalstudie die wir gestern in Berlin vorgestellt haben und die von den Medien stark aufgegriffen wurde

Die Studie identifiziert 19 Regionen in Deutschland, die akute Probleme haben bei
1. Demographie
2. Wirtschaft 
3. Infrastruktur

https://t.co/Saps3RmB8x https://t.co/vPQPMntfFe

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props_source.data.text
Ein Thread zur #IWRegionalstudie die wir gestern in Berlin vorgestellt haben und die von den Medien stark aufgegriffen wurde

Die Studie identifiziert 19 Regionen in Deutschland, die akute Probleme haben bei
1. Demographie
2. Wirtschaft 
3. Infrastruktur

https://t.co/Saps3RmB8x https://t.co/vPQPMntfFe

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.original_text
Ein Thread zur #IWRegionalstudie die wir gestern in Berlin vorgestellt haben und die von den Medien stark aufgegriffen wurde

Die Studie identifiziert 19 Regionen in Deutschland, die akute Probleme haben bei
1. Demographie
2. Wirtschaft 
3. Infrastruktur

https://t.co/Saps3RmB8x https://t.co/vPQPMntfFe

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.text
Ein Thread zur #IWRegionalstudie die wir gestern in Berlin vorgestellt haben und die von den Medien stark aufgegriffen wurde

Die Studie identifiziert 19 Regionen in Deutschland, die akute Probleme haben bei
1. Demographie
2. Wirtschaft 
3. Infrastruktur

https://t.co/Saps3RmB8x

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Warum ich auch diesen Sommer in den Urlaub fliege

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Warum ich auch diesen Sommer in den Urlaub fliege

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Diskursimpuls zum Thema Lebensstile.
Erste Idee: Diskursanalyse mit dem Wertequadrat oder dem Argumentationsmodell von Toulmin; Verortung in der Zeithorizonte-Maßstabsebenen-Matrix; als inhaltlicher Impuls bei der Erstellung von Tasachen-und-Meinungen-Karten.

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„Für das Klima aufs Fliegen verzichten?", „Umweltbewusst reisen", „Wie klimaschädlich ist Ihr Urlaub?" - Überschriften, die zeigen: Das Thema Urlaub steht in diesem Sommer ganz im Zeichen der Diskussionen, die die Aktivist*innen von Fridays For Future angestoßen haben. Der Tenor der Artikel ist: Fliegen ist eine Klimasünde. Jede*r ist verantwortlich. Die Zeit der Ausreden und Entschuldigungen ist vorbei.

Ich habe meinen Flug in meinen Italienurlaub schon vor einigen Wochen gebucht. Ich fliege regelmäßig, auch im Inland. Ganz ohne schlechtes Gewissen. Ich halte grundsätzlich nichts davon, die Verantwortung für globale Entwicklungen, die erst einmal politische und wirtschaftliche sind, auf Einzelne abzuwälzen. „Wo die Politik nicht handelt, müssen wir den Klimaschutz selbst in die Hand nehmen, Stopp sagen und Druck aufbauen", schrieben die Klima-Aktivist*innen Anne Kretzschmar und Matthias Schmelzer vom Netzwerk Stay Grounded kürzlich in einem Gastbeitrag auf ZEIT ONLINE.

Wer ist dieses ominöse „Wir"?

Ich zähle mich nicht zu diesem ominösen „Wir". Und ich fühle mich nicht angesprochen, aus unterschiedlichen Gründen. Dass das Gesicht der Klimabewegung hierzulande kein diverses ist, wurde von manchen Autor*innen bereits in den vergangen Wochen diskutiert. Einer der ersten Anstöße zu der Debatte kam von der Autorin Yasmine M'Barek in der taz.die tageszeitung. Die Bewegung Fridays For Future sei die einer weißen Mittelschicht, schrieb sie zu Recht. Bewegungen, die derart homogen sind, müssen sich fragen, warum nicht-weiße Menschen aus anderen Klassen in ihren Strukturen keinen Platz finden oder sich nicht von ihren Forderungen angesprochen fühlen.

Wer steht nun in der Verantwortung? „Der weltweite Flugverkehr war 2014 für zwei Prozent der gesamten Treibhausgas-Emissionen weltweit verantwortlich", wie Steven Davis von der University of California in Irvine im vergangenen Jahr mit einem 32-köpfigen Forscher*innenteam analysiert hat. „Zwei Prozent", schrieb der Autor Niels Boeing in einem anderen Artikel für ZEIT ONLINE: „Zum Vergleich: Die globale Zementproduktion trug im selben Jahr vier Prozent der Emissionen bei, die weitere Bauindustrie gar zehn Prozent. Haben Sie je einen Appell vernommen, den Wohnungsbau zu stoppen?"

Das Fliegen wurde im deutschen Diskurs um Klima und Umwelt erst zum Ursprung allen Übels erklärt, als es demokratisiert wurde - als die Preise fielen, als sich immer mehr Menschen eine Flugreise leisten konnten.

Tatsächlich berücksichtigt Boeing an dieser Stelle nicht das Argument vieler Klima-Aktivist*innen, dass das Problem nicht unbedingt aktuelle Auswirkungen des Fliegens auf den Klimawandel sei, sondern der rasante Anstieg von Flugzeugpassagier*innen, der kein Ende zu nehmen scheint. „Seit 1990 gab es einen weltweiten Zuwachs an Passagieren von 100 Prozent - in Deutschland sogar 250 Prozent. Die Klimazerstörung durch das Fliegen ist fast so gravierend wie die des Autoverkehrs. Wenn wir so weitermachen wie bisher, wird der Flugverkehr im Jahr 2050 für fast ein Viertel aller globalen Emissionen verantwortlich sein. Das prognostiziert die Europäische Umweltagentur", schreiben etwa Kretzschmar und Schmelzer.

Jede Stunde auf der Reise zählt

Ich bin keine Klimaexpertin. Wer am Ende Recht behalten wird, kann ich nicht beurteilen. Ich weiß nur: Das Fliegen wurde im deutschen Diskurs um Klima und Umwelt erst zum Ursprung allen Übels erklärt, als es demokratisiert wurde - als die Preise fielen, als sich immer mehr Menschen eine Flugreise leisten konnten.

Es ist kein Zufall, dass die Forderung, auf das Fliegen zu verzichten, am lautesten von Herkunftsdeutschen kommt, die keine Familie im Ausland haben, die sie besuchen oder unterstützen müssen.

Jeden Sommer häufen sich in den türkischen Nachrichten Meldungen über Familien, die auf der Autofahrt auf dem Weg in die Türkei verunglücken. Manchmal überlebt niemand. In meiner Kindheit ist auch meine Familie manchmal mit dem Auto in die Türkei gefahren, weil die Flugtickets zu teuer waren. Wenn man schnell war, konnte man in eineinhalb Tagen die Grenze erreichen. Jede Stunde, die man auf dem Weg verbrachte, war eine zu viel. Jede Stunde, die verstrich und die Rückkehr in den Alltag in Deutschland näher brachte, bereitete Bauchschmerzen.

Außerdem auf ze.tt

Wie du nach deinem Urlaub wieder arbeitest, ohne durchzudrehen

Es ist kein Zufall, dass die Forderung, auf das Fliegen zu verzichten, am lautesten von Herkunftsdeutschen kommt, die keine Familie im Ausland haben, die sie besuchen oder unterstützen müssen. Die jährliche Reise in das Heimatland der Eltern ist in vielen migrantischen Familien obligatorisch. Auch für meine Eltern war das so. Es war der einzige Lichtblick in ihrem Alltag, der meist aus Arbeit und Existenzängsten bestand. Sie wollten zumindest einmal im Jahr sorglos sein, Zeit mit ihrer Familie verbringen, mit ihren Eltern, die ihnen so schmerzhaft fehlten.

Wir brauchen mehr Differenzierung statt generalisierende Debatten

Ich möchte Menschen, die den Verzicht aufs Fliegen fordern, nicht unterstellen, dass sie dabei in erster Linie migrantische Familien im Sinn haben oder ehemals geflüchtete Menschen, die ihre kranken Eltern besuchen. Fairerweise richten Kretzschmar und Schmelzer ihre Kritik an eine andere Bevölkerungsgruppe: „Doch selbst in Ländern wie Großbritannien sind 15 Prozent der Bevölkerung für 70 Prozent der Flüge verantwortlich. Es sind bildungsbürgerliche, weltoffene, oft auch politisch progressiv scheinende und grün-links-wählende Menschen, die auf ruinöseste Weise den Planeten bereisen. Dass diejenigen, die den Klimaschutzdiskurs bestimmen, so viel fliegen, erklärt vielleicht auch, warum Klimapolitiker so wenig tun, den Flugverkehr einzuschränken", schreiben sie.

Diese wohltuende Differenzierung fehlt mir häufig, wenn ständig davon die Rede ist, „wir" müssten dies und jenes gegen den Klimawandel tun. Ich denke nicht, dass gerade meine Mutter, die immer noch mehrmals im Jahr in die Türkei fliegt, in der Verantwortung steht, darauf zu verzichten. Meine Mutter ist nicht Teil dieses privilegierten Wirs, das den Klimadiskurs anführt oder vom Fliegen profitiert hat, bevor es bezahlbar war.

Ein anderes Beispiel, das zeigt, wie generalisierend die Debatte häufig geführt wird, ist das Argument, man solle sich doch mal nicht so anstellen und die Bahnfahrt buchen, auch wenn sie teurer sei, letztendlich sei das ja alles eine Frage von Prioritäten, Verzicht und ein nötiger Schritt aus der eigenen Komfortzone. So etwas können nur Menschen von sich geben, die es in der Unbequemlichkeitszone, die für andere Realität ist, nicht mal eine Woche aushalten würden.

Klima- und Arbeitspolitik müssen zusammengedacht werden

Die Forderung, Fliegen müsse höher besteuert und teurer werden, ist verantwortungslos, wenn sie nicht in erster Linie mit der Forderung einhergeht, Bahnfahren müsse günstiger werden - und komfortabler. Nein, ich muss nicht den Zug um 4.23 Uhr zum Sparpreis von 60 Euro nehmen. Ich muss nicht fünf Tage die Woche arbeiten und mich dann schlaflos auf einen unbequemen Bahnsitz werfen, während andere bequem in der ersten Klasse ihre Füße ausstrecken.

Hinzu kommt: Bahnfahren günstiger zu machen, ist natürlich ein wichtiger Schritt, wenn man davon ausgeht, dass Geld die einzige Ressource ist, um die es hier geht. Aber was ist mit Zeit? Wenn Menschen, die in einer 50-Stunden-Woche feststecken und sich irgendwo eine Woche Urlaub frei geschaufelt haben - und das ist die Realität vieler lohnarbeitender Menschen -, sich dafür entscheiden, die Abkürzung über die Luft zu wählen, anstatt erst mal einen halben Tag durchs Land und durch den Kontinent zu tuckern, kann ich ihnen das nicht verübeln.

Außerdem auf ze.tt

Warum wir im Alltag so wenig gegen den Klimawandel tun

Mobilität ist für mich ein Grundrecht, das an viele andere Grundrechte geknüpft ist: das Grundrecht zur Teilhabe am gesellschaftlichen, kulturellen und politischen Leben etwa. An anderer Stelle wird Mobilität zu einem Muss: Arbeitgeber*innen erwarten eine immer größere Flexibilität. Viele Menschen sind beruflich deutschland- oder weltweit unterwegs. Wenn ich als freie Journalistin etwa quer durchs Land reise, wird mir die Reisezeit nicht bezahlt. Wenn wir eine andere, umweltfreundlichere Form von Mobilität fordern, müssen damit auch Veränderungen in der Arbeitswelt einhergehen. Wir brauchen mehr finanzielle Sicherheit statt immer mehr Flexibilität. Klimapolitik muss in Zusammenhang mit Arbeitspolitik gedacht werden.

Wir müssen über Fliegen als globales Problem diskutieren

Wenn es soweit ist, können wir gerne davon sprechen, warum „wir" auf das Fliegen verzichten müssen. Und dieses „Wir" sollte ein globales sein. Völlig zu Recht stellen Kretzschmar und Schmelzer fest, dass wir über Fliegen als globales Privileg diskutieren müssen. Es sei ein Privileg von wenigen, das auf Kosten vieler geht: „Es geht um Menschen und um Menschenleben. Und zwar nicht diejenigen der Vielflieger, sondern der anderen. Durch den steigenden Meeresspiegel führen Wetterextreme zu Überschwemmungen, wie im März dieses Jahres der Zyklon Idai in Mosambik, der Hunderte Menschen tötete und die Lebensgrundlagen von Zehntausenden zerstörte. Diejenigen, die am wenigsten zum Klimawandel beitragen, tragen die höchsten Kosten."

Nicht jede Person, die fliegt, ist eine zu viel. Sondern: Jede privilegierte Person, die fliegt, ist eine zu viel.

Während der Diskurs mit Blick auf das globale Außen also durchaus differenziert geführt werden kann, fehlt diese Differenzierung beim Blick nach Innen oftmals. Die Klimabewegung wird weiterhin Menschen ausschließen, solange sie mit universellen Forderungen daher kommt. Jeder Mensch, der es sich finanziell leisten kann, Bahn zu fahren, sollte es tun. Jeder Mensch, der die zeitlichen Ressourcen hat, eine notwendige Reise - ja, dazu gehört auch Urlaub - auf die doppelte oder dreifache Dauer auszudehnen, sollte es tun. Nicht jede Person, die fliegt, ist eine zu viel. Sondern: Jede privilegierte Person, die fliegt, ist eine zu viel.

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Warum ich auch diesen Sommer in den Urlaub fliege - ohne schlechtes Gewissen

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„Für das Klima aufs Fliegen verzichten?", „Umweltbewusst reisen", „Wie klimaschädlich ist Ihr Urlaub?" - Überschriften, die zeigen: Das Thema Urlaub steht in diesem Sommer ganz im Zeichen der Diskussionen, die die Aktivist*innen von Fridays For Future angestoßen haben. Der Tenor der Artikel ist: Fliegen ist eine Klimasünde. Jede*r ist verantwortlich.

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Amsterdam verbannt 11.000+ Parkplätze und alle sind begeistert. 

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Amsterdam verbannt 11.000+ Parkplätze und alle sind begeistert. 

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Impuls für Zukunftswerkstatt zum Thema nachhaltige Stadt-/ Raumplanung?

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Bewoonster Marli Huijer zit op een bankje onder haar raam: "Ik zie buren naar buiten komen. Vroeger bleven ze achter auto's verborgen. Rond zessen strijkt mijn partner neer en schuift altijd een buur aan. Dat doe je niet als een grote zwarte auto voor je neus staat. Bij moskeebezoekers roept het verhalen over hun geboortedorp op."

Huijer, voormalig Denker des Vaderlands, roemt het experiment, dat een maand lang in haar straat en de aanpalende Weesperzijde plaats vond. "Was het maar altijd zo." Wat is de grootste verandering? "Het heeft een enorme impact op je zintuigen. Je ruikt bloemen, ziet insecten. Zelfs de resonantie is anders. Een totaal andere leefomgeving", zegt ze.

E-bakfiets te huur

Na de zomer komt het Amsterdamse stadsbestuur met de Agenda Autoluw. Wethouder verkeer Sharon Dijksma wil 11.200 straatparkeerplekken (van de 265.000) opheffen vóór 2025. Veel bewoners gaat dat niet snel genoeg, en daarom begon deze buurt dit experiment: 'Proeftuin Weesperzijde'.

Om de hoek langs de Amstel wijst een initiatiefnemer, architect Maarten de Boer (67), op een container met vier elektrische fietsen. Te huur om deelmobiliteit te stimuleren. "Elk woonblok kreeg een e-bakfiets te huur." De Boer vond voor 50 auto's parkeerplek in garages van buurthotels en het Amstelstation.

Verrassend is dat het experiment uit de koker komt van autobezitters. "Die zijn hier vaak rijk, stemmen net als ik VVD, rijden Volvo en Range Rover. En ja, ook wij willen parkeerplekken inleveren om de buurt mooier te maken." De Boer haalde (rechtse én linkse) autobezitters over om hun auto een maand in een garage te stallen.

Opgedrongen proeftuin

Voorstanders spreken van een succes. Maar bij een experiment hoort verzet. Initiatiefnemer van de tegenstand is Mario Molina Espeleta: "Die proeftuin is ons opgedrongen. Absurd. De bezettingsgraad voor parkeren is hier 98 procent, dus ik moest nu meer rondjes rijden om een parkeerplek te vinden."

Taxidermist Molina wil best minder auto's, maar 'dan moet er een reëel alternatief zijn'. Hij vindt deelauto's een prima idee, maar niet voor hemzelf.

Marli Huijer is al decennia bewust autoloos. Zij is lovend over het nieuwe buurtgevoel dat tijdens de proef ontstond. Op een zondag aten ruim honderd buren samen aan een tafel die het hele straatje vulde. Het experiment zette haar tot denken aan: "De helft van de buren heeft geen auto. Waarom is het vanzelfsprekend dat wij altijd tegen dat blik aankijken, en zelfs meebetalen aan de dure ruimte die het inneemt?"

Een parkeerplaats adopteren en er een plantenbak plaatsen mag niet. "Je kunt alleen een auto kopen en die vol planten zetten." Raar dat autolozen niet meepraten, concludeert Huijer. En dat terwijl in Amsterdam slechts veertig procent van de huishoudens een auto bezit. De hoogleraar filosofie overweegt een platform te formeren om autolozen een stem in het debat te geven.

Minder vergunningen

Bestuurder van stadsdeelcommissie Oost, Rick Vermin (GroenLinks), betoogt dat hij geen meerderheid ziet voor één van beide kampen: "Helaas is vroeger zoveel ruimte gegeven aan de auto, dat de parkeerdruk heel hoog is. We kunnen geen plekken weghalen, zelfs niet voor deelauto's."

Ook hij is ongeduldig: "De hegemonie van de auto is voorbij. De Weesperzijde wordt na 15 jaar overleg in 2020 een fietsstraat, waar auto's in één richting te gast zijn." Uiteindelijk komen er minder vergunningen. "Maar dat kost tijd."

Bewoner De Boer vindt het jammer dat er geen deelauto's waren om te proberen. Hij concludeert dat een straatexperiment alleen lukt als een ruime meerderheid erachter staat. "In die straten moet de gemeente beginnen." Iedereen heeft nu gezien dat autobezitters willen meedenken. Ook belangrijk: "Voor wie het niet ziet zitten, moet je een oplossing bedenken."

Lees ook: GroenLinks krijgt zijn zin: de fiets wint

De heerschappij van de auto is voorbij, beloofde GroenLinks in haar gemeentelijke verkiezingsprogramma's. Kiezers in de grote steden hapten massaal toe. Komt er een revolutionaire omslag naar een stad met schone lucht waar voetgangers en fietsers de dienst uitmaken?

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Amsterdam wil 11.200 parkeerplaatsen opheffen. In Oost probeerden ze het een maand uit. 'Je ruikt de bloemen'

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Bewoonster Marli Huijer zit op een bankje onder haar raam: "Ik zie buren naar buiten komen. Vroeger bleven ze achter auto's verborgen. Rond zessen strijkt mijn partner neer en schuift altijd een buur aan. Dat doe je niet als een grote zwarte auto voor je neus staat.

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Idee zur Systematisierung räumlicher Strukturen zwecks Handhabbarkeit.

https://twitter.com/PierreAGERON/status/1156769331130306560?s=20

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EA2rjSQXkAAVtQZ?format=jpg&name=large

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"'Entwicklungshilfe' hilft nicht, aber Migration hilft"

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"'Entwicklungshilfe' hilft nicht, aber Migration hilft"

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Interview-Video als möglicher Impuls zum Perspektivwechsel auf das Thema Migration.
Regionales Beispiel Südamerika - Nordamerika.

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Will more US aid stem the tide of migrants fleeing Central America's economic crisis? | Fox News Video

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Insight from economist and NYU professor William Easterly.

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Hilft Digitalisierung die Welt grüner zu machen?

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Hilft Digitalisierung die Welt grüner zu machen?

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Anregender Impuls zur Diskussion zeitgenössischer Lebensstile am schülernahen Beispiel Streaming.

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Streaming music isn't as green as you might think. Here's why

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Assumptions around the environmental friendliness of streamed or on-demand services make a superficial kind of sense. But there's more to the cloud than meets the eye.

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WEF-Überblicksartikel zu wahrscheinlichen Zusammenhängen zwischen demographischen Trends, technischem Fortschritt und "Entwicklung".
Erste Verwendungsideen: SuS arbeiten Erklärungsansätze für Bevölkerungsdiagramme unterschiedlicher Länder heraus. SuS entwickeln auf Basis des Textes begründete Szenarien für unterschiedliche Regionen.

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The built environment and fashion industries are primed to lead the recovery. This is why

By focusing on decarbonization and the promotion of labour rights protections, these industries can create economic opportunities that promote a more human and environment-centered way of...

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What automation means for the future of the global population

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By focusing on decarbonization and the promotion of labour rights protections, these industries can create economic opportunities that promote a more human and environment-centered way of...

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CO2-Fußabdruck-Rechner für die unterschiedlichen Transportmodi

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Compare energy consumption, CO2 emissions and other environmental impacts in respect of planes, cars and trains for passenger transport.

Why EcoPassenger?

The transport sector accounts for more than a quarter of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. More importantly, transport has seen higher emissions growth than any other sector over the past number of decades, and this trend is set to continue.

The International union of railways (UIC) is keen to do its part by:

increasing awareness among transport users of the consequences of our everyday travel choices

supporting decision-making on how to facilitate sustainable choices

challenging existing practices, taking into account the entire energy chain and including energy life cycle costs

What is EcoPassenger?

A user-friendly online tool based on a sound scientific methodology

A calculator for comparison of the energy consumption, CO2 and exhaust atmospheric emissions of planes, cars and trains for passenger transport

fed with the most accurate and latest available data for all transport modes

developed through cooperation between UIC, the Sustainable Development Foundation, ifeu (the German Institute for Environment and Energy) and HaCon
(software)

The EcoPassenger methodology

EcoPassenger does not merely calculate the energy or the fuel it takes to run a train, car or plane. Calculations include emissions from cumulative energy consumption, including the energy used to produce the electricity or fuel, using a "well to wheel" approach.

The methodology used for rail services is based on the Environmental Strategy Reporting System, including dual reporting of the national mix and railways mix for companies seeking guarantees of origin of renewable energies.

EcoPassenger and EcoTransIT World were re-launched in cooperation with the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen in June 2008. The EcoPassenger methodology has been accepted as a contributor to the development of a European standard.

Integrating the EcoPassenger tool in your website

The EcoPassenger tool can be integrated in other websites, offering enhanced options for performing calculations with EcoPassenger that highlight the impact of personal choices on energy consumption, carbon emissions and local air pollution.

To implement the EcoPassenger tool on your website, please choose from one of the following:

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EcoPassenger - UIC - International union of railways

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Compare energy consumption, CO2 emissions and other environmental impacts in respect of planes, cars and trains for passenger transport. The transport sector accounts for more than a quarter of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. More importantly, transport has seen higher emissions growth than any other sector over the past number of decades, and this trend is set to continue.

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CO2-Fußabdruck-Rechner für die unterschiedlichen Transportmodi

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.readable_text
Compare energy consumption, CO2 emissions and other environmental impacts in respect of planes, cars and trains for passenger transport.

Why EcoPassenger?

The transport sector accounts for more than a quarter of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. More importantly, transport has seen higher emissions growth than any other sector over the past number of decades, and this trend is set to continue.

The International union of railways (UIC) is keen to do its part by:

increasing awareness among transport users of the consequences of our everyday travel choices

supporting decision-making on how to facilitate sustainable choices

challenging existing practices, taking into account the entire energy chain and including energy life cycle costs

What is EcoPassenger?

A user-friendly online tool based on a sound scientific methodology

A calculator for comparison of the energy consumption, CO2 and exhaust atmospheric emissions of planes, cars and trains for passenger transport

fed with the most accurate and latest available data for all transport modes

developed through cooperation between UIC, the Sustainable Development Foundation, ifeu (the German Institute for Environment and Energy) and HaCon
(software)

The EcoPassenger methodology

EcoPassenger does not merely calculate the energy or the fuel it takes to run a train, car or plane. Calculations include emissions from cumulative energy consumption, including the energy used to produce the electricity or fuel, using a "well to wheel" approach.

The methodology used for rail services is based on the Environmental Strategy Reporting System, including dual reporting of the national mix and railways mix for companies seeking guarantees of origin of renewable energies.

EcoPassenger and EcoTransIT World were re-launched in cooperation with the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen in June 2008. The EcoPassenger methodology has been accepted as a contributor to the development of a European standard.

Integrating the EcoPassenger tool in your website

The EcoPassenger tool can be integrated in other websites, offering enhanced options for performing calculations with EcoPassenger that highlight the impact of personal choices on energy consumption, carbon emissions and local air pollution.

To implement the EcoPassenger tool on your website, please choose from one of the following:

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.title
EcoPassenger - UIC - International union of railways

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.description
Compare energy consumption, CO2 emissions and other environmental impacts in respect of planes, cars and trains for passenger transport. The transport sector accounts for more than a quarter of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. More importantly, transport has seen higher emissions growth than any other sector over the past number of decades, and this trend is set to continue.

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Wenn Neubau in Klein- und Mittelstädten zum Problem wird

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Wenn Neubau in Klein- und Mittelstädten zum Problem wird

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WiWo-Artikel

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IW-Studie Wenn Neubau in Kleinstädten zum Problem wird

In einigen Kleinstädten wird viel zu viel gebaut, warnt das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft in einer aktuellen Studie. Vor welchen Herausforderungen die Städte auf dem Land stehen - und wie es besser geht.

Wer das Wort Wohnungssuche hört, denkt womöglich an Besichtigungen in deutschen Metropolen mit dutzenden Interessenten. Oder an Demonstrationen in Berlin samt Transparenten an Hauswänden, die Ängste der Mieter skandieren, niedrigere Mieten oder gleich die Enteignung von Wohnungsgesellschaften fordern. Und das ist niemandem zu verübeln. In den großen Städten des Landes ist die Wohnungsnot nun mal am stärksten spürbar. Immerhin werden bis 2030 vor allem die Metropolen wie Berlin, Hamburg, München oder Köln mehr als fünf Prozent an Bevölkerung gewinnen. Verfügbarer und bezahlbarer Wohnraum ist hier bereits heute Mangelware.

Das geht aus einer aktuellen Studie des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft in Köln hervor. Genau diese Studie mit dem Titel „Ist der Wohnungsbau auf dem richtigen Weg?" lenkt den Blick allerdings zur Abwechslung auch mal auf das Land. Denn der Wohnungsbau in Klein- und Mittelstädten läuft keinesfalls problemlos ab. Jedoch sind die Nöte in der Provinz ganz andere als in den Metropolen: Es wird zu viel gebaut, zumindest mancherorts. Doch gerade die Devise „Bauen, bauen, bauen" soll doch in Städten wie Berlin endlich zu einer Entspannung auf dem Wohnungsmarkt führen. Zu viel bauen - geht das überhaupt?

Das geht. Etwa in Sachsen-Anhalt, in Sachsen, im Saarland und in Randgebieten Bayerns, wie es in der Studie heißt. Eine Folge von zu viel Neubau kann ein stark verändertes Stadtbild sein. Denn durch Neubaugebiete außerhalb der Stadt- und Dorfzentren der kleinen Städte verlieren Innenstadt und Fußgängerzone an Bedeutung. Der Leerstand, der mancherorts gar bei um die zehn Prozent liegt, kann sich im Stadtzentrum zusätzlich verschärfen. Die Konsequenz daraus: Die Städte müssen sich etwas Neues einfallen lassen als bauen, bauen, bauen.

„Kommunen fernab der Metropolen sollten ein besseres Flächenmanagement betreiben, um attraktiv zu bleiben und Leerstände in der Ortsmitte zu vermeiden." Es gilt „Umbau statt Neubau". In einem Drittel der deutschen Kreise sollte die Bautätigkeit im Neubau gebremst werden, um ein Überangebot zu vermeiden, heißt es in der Studie des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft.

Der Wohnraum in deutschen Großstädten ist knapp, es werden zu wenige Wohnungen gebaut. Das verdeutlicht auch eine neue Studie. In Kleinstädten ist die Entwicklung eine andere - jedoch auch nur mäßig erfreulich.

„Für Klein- und Mittelstädte ist es ganz entscheidend, die Stadt kompakt zu halten und Wohnflächen in fußläufiger Lage zur Innenstadt anzubieten", erklärt auch Peter Dehne, Professor für Planungsrecht und Baurecht an der Hochschule Neubrandenburg. „Hier sind Wohnungen in den vergangenen Jahren deutlich attraktiver geworden, auch für jüngere Leute." Voraussetzung dafür: Die Stadt müsse lebendig sein. Dehne weiß, dass es für kleinere Städte ausgesprochen schwierig sei, „gegen den Wegfall von Einzelhandel oder Gastronomie anzukämpfen".

Vielleicht gelingt das ja mit ausgefalleneren Wohnmodellen. „Auch in der Kleinstadt können Mietwohnungen äußerst attraktiv sein, vor allem, wenn man sie räumlich und gegebenenfalls auch organisatorisch verbindet mit Serviceeinrichtungen wie Kinder- oder Seniorenbetreuung oder sogar mit Mobilitäts- und Sharing-Angeboten", sagt Professor Dehne. Dafür seien kleinere Städte mit ihrer sozialen und räumlichen Nähe fast schon prädestiniert. Die richtige Einschränkung liefert Dehne allerdings direkt mit: „Das müssten sich einfach mehr Unternehmen trauen, doch die Hürde dafür ist noch recht groß."

Verständlicherweise. Denn „wer heute Wohnungen in Berlin baut, wird gewiss Mieter finden. Wer das im Zentrum einer Kleinstadt tut, kann sich da nicht ganz so sicher sein". Hinzu kommt das geringere Mietniveau, das laut Dehne rentierliche Investitionen begrenzt.

Der Professor für Planungs- und Baurecht vermutet, dass viele Kommunen mittlerweile sensibler bei der Ausweisung von Bauland, das recht abgetrennt von der Innenstadt liegt, vorgehen. „Doch immer noch ist das freistehende Einfamilienhaus auf der grünen Wiese begehrt. Außerdem ist die Ausweisung dieses meist freien Baulands wesentlich einfacher, als in der Innenstadt zu verdichten."

Dennoch geschehe das in den zentralen Lagen immer häufiger - so sollen auch ländliche Städte urban werden.

© Handelsblatt GmbH - Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Nutzungsrechte erwerben?

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IW-Studie: Wenn Neubau in Kleinstädten zum Problem wird

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In einigen Kleinstädten wird viel zu viel gebaut, warnt das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft in einer aktuellen Studie. Vor welchen Herausforderungen die Städte auf dem Land stehen - und wie es besser geht. Wer das Wort Wohnungssuche hört, denkt womöglich an Besichtigungen in deutschen Metropolen mit dutzenden Interessenten.

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Anteile an "Treibhausgas"-Emissionen nach Emittenten & notwendige Schritte zur "Klimaneutralität"

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Anteile an "Treibhausgas"-Emissionen nach Emittenten & notwendige Schritte zur "Klimaneutralität"

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Infrografiken

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How to Reduce the World’s Carbon Footprint by 2050 — Information is Beautiful

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To keep global warming & climate change below 3-4 degrees celsius, we have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to renewable energy - globally. A graphical blueprint on how to get to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

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Anteile an "Treibhausgas"-Emissionen nach Emittenten & notwendige Schritte zur "Klimaneutralität"

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Anteile an "Treibhausgas"-Emissionen nach Emittenten & notwendige Schritte zur "Klimaneutralität"

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Infrografiken

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How to Reduce the World’s Carbon Footprint by 2050 — Information is Beautiful

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To keep global warming & climate change below 3-4 degrees celsius, we have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to renewable energy - globally. A graphical blueprint on how to get to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

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Gedenktafel auf Island: Erster Gletscher verliert "Status" als Gletscher

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Gedenktafel auf Island: Erster Gletscher verliert "Status" als Gletscher

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(Wie) kann der Klimakrise begegnet werden? (Inwiefern) sind die Maßnahmen ausreichend? Welche Kriterien sind sinnvoll?
Leitfragen und Zusammenhänge zum Thema Tipping Points / Kipppunkte in einem anregenden Beitrag des Guardian.
Ideen: Als Einstieg ins Thema "Anthropozän"? Als Info-Steinbruch für die Szenario-Methode? Als Grundlage zur Komplexitätsanalyse in einem Wirkungsgefüge / mit dem Syndromansatz?

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The first of Iceland's 400 glaciers to be lost to the climate crisis will be remembered with a memorial plaque - and a sombre warning for the future - to be unveiled by scientists and local people next month.

The former Okjökull glacier, which a century ago covered 15 sq km (5.8 sq miles) of mountainside in western Iceland and measured 50 metres thick, has shrunk to barely 1 sq km of ice less than 15 metres deep and lost its status as a glacier.

Researchers from Rice University in Houston, Texas, a leading Icelandic author, Andri Snær Magnason, and the geologist Oddur Sigurðsson will lead the unveiling ceremony at the site in Borgarfjörður on 18 August, local media said.

"In the next 200 years, all our glaciers are expected to follow the same path," the plaque reads, in Icelandic and English. "This monument is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it."

The memorial is dated August 2019 and also carries the words "415ppm CO 2", referring to the record-breaking level of 415 parts per million of carbon dioxide recorded in the atmosphere in May this year.

The former Okjökull glacier. Photograph: Rice University

A glacier is defined as a persistent mass of compacted ice that accumulates more mass each winter than it loses through summer melt and is constantly moving under its own weight. When this ceases to be the case, the remains are known as "dead ice".

Cymene Howe, an associate professor of anthropology at Rice, said the plaque "would be the first to a glacier lost to climate change anywhere in the world". Marking the moment should draw attention to what is being lost, she said.

With her colleague Dominic Boyer, Howe has been studying the economic and cultural impact of global heating and ice shrinkage on Icelandic communities. "These bodies of ice are the largest freshwater reserves on the planet," she said.

"Frozen within them are histories of the atmosphere. They are also often important cultural forms that are full of significance."

Boyer said Okjökull's fate "will be shared by all of Iceland's glaciers unless we act now to radically curtail greenhouse gas emissions".

The far north of the globe has been warming twice as fast as the rest, helping this June become the hottest ever recorded. Scientists have said a sharp rise in Arctic temperatures is inevitable, potentially creating a climate "tipping point".

With the former mayor of Reykjavik Jón Gnarr, the two US researchers produced a documentary, Not Ok, about the glacier's disappearance last year, in an effort to show how the climate crisis is affecting ordinary people's lives.

"An Icelandic colleague said: 'Memorials are not for the dead; they are for the living,'" Howe said. "We want to underscore that it is up to us, the living, to respond to the rapid loss of glaciers and the ongoing impacts of climate change. For Ok glacier it is already too late."

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Icelandic memorial warns future: 'Only you know if we saved glaciers'

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The first of Iceland's 400 glaciers to be lost to the climate crisis will be remembered with a memorial plaque - and a sombre warning for the future - to be unveiled by scientists and local people next month.

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Avocado & Lachs: Wie nachhaltig ist "Superfood" des urbanen Lebensstils des globalen Nordens?

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Avocado & Lachs: Wie nachhaltig ist "Superfood" des urbanen Lebensstils des globalen Nordens?

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TV-Reportage

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SENDETERMIN So., 21.07.19 | 18:50 Uhr | Das Erste

Die dunkle Seite von Trend-Food

Der Lachs gehört eigentlich nicht in die Küstengewässer von Chile. Er ist auf der Nordhalbkugel heimisch, aber hier wächst er wunderbar zur Schlachtreife heran. So nennen es die Betreiber der Aquakulturen. 700.000 dieser Raubfische züchten sie im Süden von Chile für den Weltmarkt. In den 1980er Jahren war es noch ein Luxusprodukt, zu finden auf den Buffets der Reichen, mittlerweile ist Lachs aber zum Trend-Food geworden.

Auch dank der Massenzucht in Chile ist der Fisch erschwinglich geworden. Relativ billig und eine gesunde Alternative zum Fleisch - alles scheint für den Lachs zu sprechen. Wäre da nicht die dunkle Seite des Booms. Antibiotika-Gaben, damit der Fisch in den Aquakulturen gesund bleibt, bis zu 700-mal mehr als in Norwegen zum Beispiel, weil in Chile die Umweltgesetze so viel laxer sind.

Schließlich wurden die Lachse, die eigentlich Raubfische sind, zu Vegetariern "erzogen". Klingt erst einmal wie eine gute Idee, so kann verhindert werden, dass die Meere leer gefischt werden. Die Kehrseite des "vegetarischen Lachses" findet man in Brasilien. Soja-Anbau in riesigen, immer mehr Land verschlingenden Agrar-Großbetrieben. Dazu kommt, dass die Soja-Pellets für das Lachs-Mästen mit gesundheitsschädlichen Mitteln behandelt werden, die in der EU und in den USA verboten sind. Aber nur so kann das Soja haltbar gemacht werden, um es in riesigen Mengen zu den Lachs-Farmen zu transportieren. Die dunkle Seite des Trend-Foods, wie Matthias Ebert im Süden Lateinamerikas zeigt.

Avocados - das "grüne Gold"

Weiter im Norden bauen Farmer Avocados im großen Stil an. Ein Lebensmittel, das fast schon Kult-Status in den USA und in Europa erreicht hat: Gesundes Fett, cremig liegt es bei Veganern, Vegetariern und der wachsenden Hipster-Gemeinde der Metropolen im Trend.

In Mexiko werden mehr Avocados produziert als irgendwo sonst in der Welt. Das "grüne Gold" nennen sie es hier, doch längst glänzt es nicht mehr, wie Xenia Böttcher zeigt.

Niemals hätte José Gonzalez gedacht, dass Avocados sein Leben so dramatisch verändern würden. Seit 35 Jahren arbeitet er im Avocado-Geschäft und die steigende Nachfrage hat ihn zu einem wohlhabenden Mann gemacht. Und zu einem bedrohten. Nur noch mit schwer bewaffneten Bodyguards geht er auf seine Plantagen, sein Sohn wurde bereits entführt, 100.000 USD sollte er zahlen. Er selbst wurde schon zwei Mal entführt.

Erhielt Gonzalez für ein Kilo Avocados einst 20 Cent, so sind es jetzt bereits 3,50 Euro. Und es werden Milliarden Avocados exportiert.

Brutaler Machtkampf

Mexikos organisierte Kriminalität will mitmischen beim Geschäft mit dem "grünen Gold". Kartelle streiten im Bundesstaat Michoacan um die Macht. Die "Tempelritter" gegen "Jalisco - neue Generation". Der Kampf ist besonders brutal, Hinrichtungen keine Seltenheit. Der Terror, die Angst soll die Farmer gefügig machen. Wer sein Schutzgeld nicht zahlt, verschwindet oder wird leblos aufgefunden.

In Lateinamerika haben Globalisierung und der Boom von Lebensmitteln, die in den Industriegesellschaften zum Trend werden, nicht selten brutale Auswirkungen. Ausbeutung von Natur und Menschen, damit in der nördlichen Hemisphäre der Tisch gedeckt ist. Eine Reportage der ARD-Lateinamerika-Korrespondenten Xenia Böttcher und Matthias Ebert über die dunkle Seite von Trend-Food.
Ein Film von Xenia Böttcher und Matthias Ebert
Stand: 31.08.2019 13:15 Uhr

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Weltspiegel-Reportage: Lachs und Avocado für Europa | Weltspiegel

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SENDETERMIN So., 21.07.19 | 18:50 Uhr | Das Erste Die dunkle Seite von Trend-Food Der Lachs gehört eigentlich nicht in die Küstengewässer von Chile. Er ist auf der Nordhalbkugel heimisch, aber hier wächst er wunderbar zur Schlachtreife heran. So nennen es die Betreiber der Aquakulturen.

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Diskurs zur "Verkehrswende": Urbane vs. ländliche Perspektiven 

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Diskurs zur "Verkehrswende": Urbane vs. ländliche Perspektiven 

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Ideen: Als Einstiegsimpuls, zur Formulierung von Positionen für Rollenspiele od. Diskussionsrunden, für eine SWOT-Analyse, zur Ermittlung von Wertmaßstäben, zur Diskursanalyse mit Wertequadrat oder Nachhaltigkeitsdreieck, als Impulsgeber für eine Zukunftswerkstatt, ...
Twitter-Thread: https://twitter.com/danielmack/status/1152926323381288965?s=20

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47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität…

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47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität… https://t.co/MPn6hAZ1RP

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47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität… https://t.co/MPn6hAZ1RP

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47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität… https://t.co/MPn6hAZ1RP

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47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität…

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Diskurs zur "Verkehrswende": Urbane vs. ländliche Perspektiven 

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Diskurs zur "Verkehrswende": Urbane vs. ländliche Perspektiven 

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Ideen: Als Einstiegsimpuls, zur Formulierung von Positionen für Rollenspiele od. Diskussionsrunden, für eine SWOT-Analyse, zur Ermittlung von Wertmaßstäben, zur Diskursanalyse mit Wertequadrat oder Nachhaltigkeitsdreieck, als Impulsgeber für eine Zukunftswerkstatt, ...
Twitter-Thread: https://twitter.com/danielmack/status/1152926323381288965?s=20

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47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität…

# data[].attributes.wish_content.attachment_props.original_text
47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität… https://t.co/MPn6hAZ1RP

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props_source.data.text
47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität… https://t.co/MPn6hAZ1RP

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.original_text
47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität… https://t.co/MPn6hAZ1RP

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.text
47 Mio. leben in 🇩🇪 in der #Provinz. Wäre falsch, die #Verkehrswende nur aus der Berlin-Mitte-Sicht zu diskutieren… 

#NewMobility heißt nicht weg vom Auto, sondern hin zu vernetzter Mobilität…

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Teilen/Mieten von Kleidung als Beitrag zu nachhaltiger Lebensstil? 

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Teilen/Mieten von Kleidung als Beitrag zu nachhaltiger Lebensstil? 

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Text, Daten und Grafiken

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Renting clothes could be the future of fashion

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The rise of rental clothing outlets could mean a decline in waste and a more sustainable fashion industry.

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Infografik
Idee: Routenplanung mit marinetraffic.com & z. B. umap.openstreetmap.fr/de unter Beachtung wirtschaftlicher UND ressourcensparender Kriterien.
Via Twitter: https://twitter.com/o_merk/status/1143753781886238720

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How to decarbonise shipping? Nice infographic by @UCL_Energy and @UMAS_15 Also read our own report on this: https://t.co/tsLL02VDhq

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How to decarbonise shipping? Nice infographic by @UCL_Energy and @UMAS_15 Also read our own report on this: https://t.co/tsLL02VDhq https://t.co/kCSEuSalsu

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How to decarbonise shipping? Nice infographic by @UCL_Energy and @UMAS_15 Also read our own report on this: https://t.co/tsLL02VDhq https://t.co/kCSEuSalsu

# data[].attributes.attachment_link.metadata.attachment_props.original_text
How to decarbonise shipping? Nice infographic by @UCL_Energy and @UMAS_15 Also read our own report on this: https://t.co/tsLL02VDhq https://t.co/kCSEuSalsu

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How to decarbonise shipping? Nice infographic by @UCL_Energy and @UMAS_15 Also read our own report on this: https://t.co/tsLL02VDhq

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Beispiel für Raumplanung konkret: Zugänglichkeit und Anbindung von Grünflächen in Hamburg

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Beispiel für Raumplanung konkret: Zugänglichkeit und Anbindung von Grünflächen in Hamburg

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Ideen-Präsentation eines Raumplanungsunternehmens; Erste Gedanken zu möglichen didaktische Zugriffen: Zugrundeliegende Kriterien identifizieren; Bewertung mit Kriterien für nachhaltige Stadtplanung; ...

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GEHL LIVE keeps you updated with the latest news and insights into making 'Cities for People'!

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Atmosphärische Strömung und Relief (Alpen), animierte Visualisierung

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Atmosphärische Strömung und Relief (Alpen), animierte Visualisierung

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Komplexität sichtbar gemacht. Erste Unterrichtsideen: zentrale Elemente identifizieren, Erläuterungstext für Animation entwerfen, lebendiges Diagramm
Via Twitter: https://twitter.com/myweather_ch/status/1137999567264407552?s=20

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WWF-Klimarechner
Idee: Zur Bewertung von Lebensstilen geeignet?

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Civil Society Position on Future Energy

Europa ist mit den Folgen des russischen Krieges gegen die Ukraine konfrontiert, der eine anhaltende Energiekrise mit unbekannten Versorgungsengpässen, massiven Preissprüngen und zunehmender Energiearmut. Die Staaten sind derzeit dabei, ihre Energiesicherheitsstrategien umzugestalten, um den neuen Realitäten Rechnung zu tragen während Klimasorgen und die nachhaltige Energiewende in den Hintergrund treten.

PDF - 262,94 KB

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Civil Society Position on Future Energy Europa ist mit den Folgen des russischen Krieges gegen die Ukraine konfrontiert, der eine anhaltende Energiekrise mit unbekannten Versorgungsengpässen, massiven Preissprüngen und zunehmender Energiearmut. Die Staaten sind derzeit dabei, ihre Energiesicherheitsstrategien umzugestalten, um den neuen Realitäten Rechnung zu tragen während Klimasorgen und die nachhaltige Energiewende in den Hintergrund treten.

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Ranking direkter und indirekter Einflussfaktoren. Idee: Als Hilfe zur Kriterien orientierten Entwicklung und/oder  Auswahl wirksamer Maßnahmen an konkreten Raumbeispielen? Via Twitter.

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Think that #ClimateChange is the only crisis facing #Nature?

The @IPBES #GlobalAssessment Report is the first to rank the relative impact of drivers of #biodiversity loss.

1. Land/Sea Use Change
2. Direct Exploitation
3. Climate Change
4. Pollution
5. Invasive Species

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Think that #ClimateChange is the only crisis facing #Nature?

The @IPBES #GlobalAssessment Report is the first to rank the relative impact of drivers of #biodiversity loss.

1. Land/Sea Use Change
2. Direct Exploitation
3. Climate Change
4. Pollution
5. Invasive Species https://t.co/QZvyB4xz4R

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Think that #ClimateChange is the only crisis facing #Nature?

The @IPBES #GlobalAssessment Report is the first to rank the relative impact of drivers of #biodiversity loss.

1. Land/Sea Use Change
2. Direct Exploitation
3. Climate Change
4. Pollution
5. Invasive Species https://t.co/QZvyB4xz4R

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Think that #ClimateChange is the only crisis facing #Nature?

The @IPBES #GlobalAssessment Report is the first to rank the relative impact of drivers of #biodiversity loss.

1. Land/Sea Use Change
2. Direct Exploitation
3. Climate Change
4. Pollution
5. Invasive Species https://t.co/QZvyB4xz4R

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Think that #ClimateChange is the only crisis facing #Nature?

The @IPBES #GlobalAssessment Report is the first to rank the relative impact of drivers of #biodiversity loss.

1. Land/Sea Use Change
2. Direct Exploitation
3. Climate Change
4. Pollution
5. Invasive Species

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Interaktive Karte und Datenvisualisierung

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Sailing Seas of Plastic - Interactive Data Visualisation

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Sailing Seas of Plastic - Interactive Data Visualisation

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This map shows the global distribution of floating plastic in our oceans based on a recent study estimating a total mass of floating plastic debris of about 268,000 tonnes.

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Lebensstile in den Regionen mit der höchsten Lebenserwartung. Impulse für eine Zukunftswerkstatt?

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The healthiest people in the world don't go to the gym

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Treadmills don't come into it for the populations of the planet's 'Blue Zones' - where life expectancy is highest.

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Text, Karte und Animation

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The Panama Canal was built because what could possibly be more annoying than shipping something from from San Francisco to New York (or Tokyo to London) by going all the way around South America. The canal would save ships almost 8,000 miles of voyage and a ton of time and costs along the way.

So the French embarked on the project in 1881 only to bail when engineering problems and high worker mortality proved too costly. The US, under the rad Teddy Roosevelt, picked things back up in 1904 and finished it by 1914. The whole project cost $921 million, which is almost $10 billion today, but if you take the portion of the GDP $921 million was at the time, it would be like the US spending $119 billion today.

And everyone knows about the Panama Canal, but most people don't realize how it works.

When people picture the canal, they sometimes just imagine a full slot of land carved out, leaving a little bar of ocean cutting through Panama. What's actually happening is that the canal is more like a groove, or a man made river, that runs across the surface of the land, and ships go up over the surface in order to get across. At the highest elevation, ships are 85 feet (26 meters) above sea level.

But how can a 950 foot ship go uphill?

Here's how:

The Panama Canal system of locks allows ships to ascend and descend in steps, like a staircase, keeping them perfectly level at all times. There are three upward steps and three downward steps. When this system was built in 1914, it was one of the greatest works of engineering in history.

Here's a map of the canal showing where the locks are, and here's an animation that shows exactly how the locks work (with the heights exaggerated):

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How the Panama Canal Works - Wait But Why

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The Panama Canal was built because what could possibly be more annoying than shipping something from from San Francisco to New York (or Tokyo to London) by going all the way around South America. The canal would save ships almost 8,000 miles of voyage and a ton of time and costs along the way.

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Interaktive Karte mit Vorfällen der letzten 40 Jahre

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Every year it feels like the gaming industry sees the same stories-record sales, unfathomable market reach, and questions of how much higher the market can go.

We're already far past the point of gaming being the biggest earning media sector, with an estimated $165 billion revenue generated in 2020.

But as our graphic above helps illustrate, it's important to break down shifting growth within the market. Research from Pelham Smithers shows that while the tidal wave of gaming has only continued to swell, the driving factors have shifted over the course of gaming history.

1970-1983: The Pre-Crash Era

At first, there was Atari.

Early prototypes of video games were developed in labs in the 1960s, but it was Atari's release of Pong in 1972 that helped to kickstart the industry.

The arcade table-tennis game was a sensation, drawing in consumers eager to play and companies that started to produce their own knock-off versions. Likewise, it was Atari that sold a home console version of Pong in 1975, and eventually its own Atari 2600 home console in 1977, which would become the first console to sell more than a million units.

In short order, the arcade market began to plateau. After dwindling due to a glut of Pong clones, the release of Space Invaders in 1978 reinvigorated the market.

Arcade machines started to be installed everywhere, and new franchises like Pac-Man and Donkey Kong drove further growth. By 1982, arcades were already generating more money than both the pop music industry and the box office.

1985-2000: The Tech Advancement Race

Unfortunately, the gaming industry grew too quickly to maintain.

Eager to capitalize on a growing home console market, Atari licensed extremely high budget ports of Pac-Man and a game adaptation of E.T. the Extra Terrestrial. They were rushed to market, released in poor quality, and cost the company millions in returns and more in brand damage.

As other companies also looked to capitalize on the market, many other poor attempts at games and consoles caused a downturn across the industry. At the same time, personal computers were becoming the new flavor of gaming, especially with the release of the Commodore 64 in 1982.

It was a sign of what was to define this era of gaming history: a technological race. In the coming years, Nintendo would release the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) home console in 1985 (released in Japan as the Famicom), prioritizing high quality games and consistent marketing to recapture the wary market.

On the backs of games like Duck Hunt, Excitebike, and the introduction of Mario in Super Mario Bros, the massive success of the NES revived the console market.

Estimated Total Console Sales by Manufacturer (1970-2020)

Nintendo looked to continue its dominance in the field, with the release of the Game Boy handheld and the Super Nintendo Entertainment System. At the same time, other competitors stepped in to beat them at their own game.

In 1988, arcade company Sega entered the fray with the Sega Mega Drive console (released as the Genesis in North America) and then later the Game Gear handheld, putting its marketing emphasis on processing power.

Electronics maker Sony released the PlayStation in 1994, which used CD-ROMs instead of cartridges to enhance storage capacity for individual games. It became the first console in history to sell more than 100 million units, and the focus on software formats would carry on with the PlayStation 2 (DVDs) and PlayStation 3 (Blu-rays).

Even Microsoft recognized the importance of gaming on PCs and developed the DirectX API to assist in game programming. That "X" branding would make its way to the company's entry into the console market, the Xbox.

2001-Present: The Online Boom

It was the rise of the internet and mobile, however, that grew the gaming industry from tens of billions to hundreds of billions in revenue.

A primer was the viability of subscription and freemium services. In 2001, Microsoft launched the Xbox Live online gaming platform for a monthly subscription fee, giving players access to multiplayer matchmaking and voice chat services, quickly becoming a must-have for consumers.

Meanwhile on PCs, Blizzard was tapping into the Massive Multiplayer Online (MMO) subscription market with the 2004 release of World of Warcraft, which saw a peak of more than 14 million monthly paying subscribers.

All the while, companies saw a future in mobile gaming that they were struggling to tap into. Nintendo continued to hold onto the handheld market with updated Game Boy consoles, and Nokia and BlackBerry tried their hands at integrating game apps into their phones.

But it was Apple's iPhone that solidified the transition of gaming to a mobile platform. The company's release of the App Store for its smartphones (followed closely by Google's own store for Android devices) paved the way for app developers to create free, paid, and pay-per-feature games catered to a mass market.

Now, everyone has their eyes on that growing $85 billion mobile slice of the gaming market, and game companies are starting to heavily consolidate.

Major Gaming Acquisitions Since 2014

Console makers like Microsoft and Sony are launching cloud-based subscription services even while they continue to develop new consoles. Meanwhile, Amazon and Google are launching their own services that work on multiple devices, mobile included.

After seeing the success that games like had on smartphones-reaching more than $1 billion in yearly revenue-and Grand Theft Auto V's record breaking haul of $1 billion in just three days, companies are targeting as much of the market as they can.

And with the proliferation of smartphones, social media games, and streaming services, they're on the right track. There are more than 2.7 billion gamers worldwide in 2020, and how they choose to spend their money will continue to shape gaming history as we know it.

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Map: Visualizing 40 Years of Nautical Piracy

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Every year it feels like the gaming industry sees the same stories-record sales, unfathomable market reach, and questions of how much higher the market can go. We're already far past the point of gaming being the biggest earning media sector, with an estimated $165 billion revenue generated in 2020.

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taz-Artikel zu Widersprüchen des "touristischen Lebensstils". Mögl. Impuls für das Halbjahresthema?

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Verreisen ist unsere Passion, Nachhaltigkeit unser Wunsch. Wir essen vegan und fliegen billig. Paradoxien im touristischen Zeitalter.

Diese Lustlosigkeit! Es liegt einem die Welt zu Füßen und wir erfreuen uns nicht daran. „Es ist nicht so, dass ich ungern reise. Es ist viel schlimmer. Ich verstehe das ganze Konzept nicht." Warum, fragt der Autor Jürgen Kaube in der FAZ, soll man ganze Tage darauf verwenden und Hunderte von Kilometern zurücklegen, wenn man am Ende dort nichts zu suchen habe? Die Gegenrede wäre beispielsweise: Tapetenwechsel. Diesen betont Valentin Groebner im Contra zu Kaubes Text: Eine der wenigen Chancen für das Unvorhergesehene sei das Wegfahren. „Das ist anstrengend, aber die kleinen Fluchten und das lustvolle Verschnaufen sind sonst nirgendwo mehr zu haben."

Groebner spricht vom Reisen, wie es idealtypisch sein könnte, wenn man Abstand nimmt von der Marktförmigkeit des Tourismus, von der konsumistischen Ausgestaltung des touristischen Universums. Aber vor allem hat er gut reden: er ist Historiker. Die Sehenswürdigkeiten, die er aufsucht, sind grundlegend für sein Forschungsinteresse über den Geschichtstourismus und die Sehnsucht nach dem Authentischen. Er hat dort, wo er hinfährt, etwas zu suchen.

Und all die Millionen anderen, die alljährlich verreisen, was ist mit uns? Wie fühlen wir uns? Tourismus ist die erfolgreichste Industrie der Neuzeit. Der italienische Autor Marco d'Eramo bezeichnet den Tourismus in seinem klugen Buch „Die Welt im Selfie" als wichtiger als Sport und Werbung: „Man kann durchaus so weit gehen", schreibt er, „unsere Epoche als die Epoche des Tourismus zu bezeichnen."

Schätzungsweise 10 Prozent des weltweiten BIP werden inzwischen durch Tourismus generiert. Tourismus schafft 10 Prozent der weltweiten Arbeitsplätze. Er mobilisiert damit verbundene Wirtschaftszweige wie Automobilindustrie, Wohnungs-, Straßen-, Schiffs- und Flugzeugbau, die Verpflegungs-, Souvenir- und Landkartenindustrie. Die Zahl der Touristen weltweit ist im vergangenen Jahr um 7 Prozent gestiegen.

Wie die Welttourismusorganisation (UNWTO) erklärte, wurde der Anstieg vor allem von Europa und dort vom Mittelmeerraum angetrieben, wo 8 Prozent mehr Touristen hinreisten. Die Zahl der internationalen Besucher, die mindestens eine Nacht an ihrem Reiseziel verbringen, erreichte 2017 rund 1,3 Milliarden. Zum Vergleich: 1950 waren es 25 Millionen.

Die weltweiten Tourismuseinnahmen beliefen sich 2017 auf 1.340 Milliarden US-Dollar. Die Länder mit den höchsten internationalen Tourismusausgaben waren mit großem Abstand China, die USA und Deutschland. Die beliebtesten Reiseziele von Touristen aller Nationen sind Frankreich mit fast 90 Millionen Ankünften internationaler Touristen im Jahr 2017, Spanien und die USA. Bis zum Jahr 2030 - so schätzt die UNWTO - dürfte die Zahl der Touristen, die Auslandsreisen machen, weltweit auf 1,8 Milliarden ansteigen. Bei aller Lustlosigkeit und Kritik: Der Tourismus wächst sagenhaft.

Tourismus lebt von Paradoxien

Dabei ist das touristische Reisen stressig, teuer, absurd. Beispielsweise Studienreisende: Sie nehmen gewaltige Anstrengungen auf sich. Sie lassen sich von einem georgischen Kloster ins andere kutschieren, reihen sich ein in die internationale Menge anderer fotografierender Touristen, lassen sich anschließend kitschige Heiligenbilder an zahllosen Ständen vorführen, bevor sie zum nächsten Kloster in abgelegener Bergregion aufbrechen, dort das Gleiche erleben und am Ende eines langen Tages idealerweise sechs Klöster geschafft haben. Glaubt einer ernsthaft, dass er sich damit spirituell einen Gefallen tut?

Aber Unvereinbares zusammenzuschnüren, das war von jeher das Erfolgsmodell des Tourismus. Immer war die Fremde, die uns das Reiseprodukt präsentierte, die schöne Inszenierung einer nicht immer so schönen Wirklichkeit. Im gefälligen Produkt lösen sich Paradoxien wie von Zauberhand von selbst auf. Wir erwarten die Fremde, aber bekommen ein Programm. Wir lassen uns die Inszenierungen historischer Stätten als authentisch aufschwätzen, weil sie zum Welterbe der Unesco gehören.

Wir verfallen der Illusion, dass die Berber im Süden Tunesiens Wüstenfüchse sind, auch wenn sie sich vom Handy navigieren lassen. Tourismus lebt von Paradoxien und er produziert Paradoxien. Es ist sein Geschäft, unsere Reisewünsche nie völlig zu befriedigen. Er verkauft uns etwas als authentisch, was es so nie gegeben hat.

Und auch nicht mehr geben wird: denn die touristische Welt wird sich immer ähnlicher. Ein farbenfroher, ständig aufgehübschter Warenkorb. Inzwischen aber bekommen wir den Aufguss vom Aufguss vom Aufguss. Doch selbst die zehnte Inszenierung des unsterblichen Venedigs erweist sich mehr denn je als elbstläufer, der massenhaft Touristen anzieht.Hotspots.

Erstmals wird über Orte diskutiert, die unter Touristenströmen zusammenzubrechen drohen. Es sind touristische Highlights von gestern, Alhambra, Barcelona, Machu Picchu, Angkor Wat, Rom, deren längst verblasste Aura neuen touristischen Generationen als Ziel dient. Auch ein Paradox?

Die Kunst der Selbstdarstellung

Marco d'Eramo beschreibt den Boom auf klassische Sehenswürdigkeiten als eine sich selbst verstärkende Rückkoppelungsschleife, in der viele Touristen noch mehr Touristen anziehen. Das authentisch Historische würde durch seine touristische Nutzung nicht etwa weniger oder gar zerstört, sondern es würde mehr. Durch ein Mehr an Atmosphäre, an neu hinzukommender „alter" Historie, an Inszenierungen. Und einem Mehr an Touristen - frei nach dem Motto: Was alle wichtig finden, muss auch das Richtige sein.

„Die Attraktion wird also sozial konstruiert", so d'Eramo. Auf diese Weise entstehen „Marker", an denen sich Touristen orientieren, die sie andererseits aber auch durch ihr Verhalten verstärken, wenn sie beispielsweise aller Welt kundtun, dort gewesen zu sein. „Ein Marker ist das, was der touristischen Aktivität das Siegel der Authentizität verleiht." Marco d'Eramo meint, dass der „Prozess des Einsammelns von Markern" sogar die Oberhand über den „Prozess des Reisens" gewinnen und zu dessen Hauptzweck werden kann. Authentizität als Sinn des Reisens.

Tatsächlich ist Authentizität das Thema der Stunde. Ohne Abstriche „man selber" sein, das gilt inzwischen für alle Lebenslagen: im Privaten, im Öffentlichen, im Beruf, in der Kunst. Kein Mensch wie alle anderen zu sein, sondern ganz besonders. Seinen Wünschen ganz nahe, um sich zu einer einzigartigen Persönlichkeit zu entfalten. Sinn und Bestimmung zu finden und dafür lauter „likes" einzusammeln, wird immer mehr zu einem zeitgenössischen Ideal. Gemeinhin wird unter „authentisch" etwas Echtes, Originales, Ursprüngliches, Glaubwürdiges verstanden. Was ist das heute noch?

Mehr denn je ist authentisch sein heute von der Kunst der Selbstdarstellung abhängig. Oder - wie der ozialwissenschaftler Andreas Reckwitz dies bezeichnet - von der „Performance". In seiner gewichtigen Studie „Gesellschaft der Singularitäten" versteht er Authentizität sogar als „Schlüsselbegriff" des mobilen, modernen, weltoffenen, kosmopolitisch orientierten, akademisch gebildeten spätmodernen Menschen.

Das entgrenzte Reisen der neuen Mittelklasse

Als ein Ideal also jener modernen Milieus, die eine globale „neue Mittelklasse" bilden. In ihrer „Hyperkultur" kann jede und jeder als authentisch gelten, wenn sie/er die postmodernen Selbstbilder überzeugend verkörpert und dabei jenes gewisse Etwas zu erkennen gibt, das einen im Spiegel der Mitmenschen als etwas Besonderes dastehen lässt.

Wer exzessiv reist, gilt automatisch als weltoffen, wer sich überall auf der Welt zu Hause wähnt, gilt selbstverständlich als Kosmopolit. Und wer bei diesen Aktivitäten als besonders originell gelten will, surft heute im Pazifik und speist morgen in einem pittoresken Lokal in Umbrien oder einer Wellblechbude in São Paulo, Hauptsache, es verheißt Anerkennung im modernen Lifestyleuniversum. „Die Subjekte lechzen danach, affiziert zu werden und andere affizieren zu können, um selbst als attraktiv und authentisch zu gelten", schreibt Reckwitz.

Allerdings ist diese neue Authentizität nicht leicht zu haben: Sie erfordert ständige Arbeit am Ich, man muss lernen, sein Leben zu kuratieren, man muss ein Gespür dafür entwickeln, was auf dem Markt als attraktiv und interessant gelten könnte, man braucht kulturelles Kapital. Das intensive Arbeitsprogramm am Ich erfordert unter Umständen sogar die Hilfe von Coaches oder Beratern. Denn was als besonders gelten kann, unterliegt dem harten Wettbewerb.

Doch für alle postmodernen Milieus gilt: „Das Reisen in seiner entgrenzten Form ist ein Betätigungsfeld par excellence für die weltzugewandte Selbstverwirklichung, wie sie die Akademikerklasse kultiviert. Im Durchstreifen der Welt, in ihrer natürlichen kulturellen Fülle und Vielfalt reichert das Subjekt sich selbst mit Erlebnissen und Erfahrungen an. Globalität in all ihren Facetten wird zu einer Ressource für die Entwicklung des Ichs ... Reisen ist eine Schlüsselpraxis in der Lebensführung der Akademikerklasse, die ihr kosmopolitisches Bewusstsein prägt", schreibt Reckwitz.

Inzwischen gehört das „entgrenzte" Reisen zum Habitus der neuen Mittelklasse. Aber Tourismus in seiner alten Form - der zweiwöchige Strandurlaub all-inclusive, die Bildungsreise mit einem Studienreiseanbieter nach Kerala - ist unattraktiv. Die klassische Form, Urlaub zu machen, um die Arbeitskraft zu regenerieren, ist überholt, sie ist Tourismus von gestern, der noch dem alten Industiekapitalismus verhaftet war.

Ausweitung der Warenzone

Dabei hat im Tourismus nichts und niemand größere Zuwachsraten als die durch und durch standardisierte Form des Massentourismus auf Kreuzfahrtschiffen. Die Ungereimtheit lässt sich leicht erklären: die Internationale der „Hyperkulturellen" gibt der touristischen Wachstumsspirale den neuen, aber entscheidenden Innovationskick. Sie sorgt in dieser neuen Phase kapitalistischer Veredelung ihrer Lebensbereiche für die Ausweitung der Warenzone - vor allem in der Sphäre der Kultur.

Doch es gibt Ähnlichkeiten zwischen der individualistischen Suche nach dem Besonderen, Einzigartigen der von Reckwitz analysierten Avantgardisten aus der Mittelschicht und den klassischen Kreuzfahrern: Der Schrecken des Fremden, das Befremdende, bleibt draußen vor. Wir lassen uns nicht irritieren, allenfalls anregen. Wir konsumieren. Nichts kommt uns so nah, dass es bedrohlich wird, es soll uns emotional anrühren, aber nicht zu viel. Die Fremde dient dem eigenen Wohlbefinden, dem Ergötzen, Erbauen, als Ressource des Ich.

Wollte man möglicherweise früher noch Land und Leute und Orten begegnen, so interessiert uns heute allenfalls noch die historische Spur der anderen Kultur in kunstvollen Holzmasken afrikanischer Museen, deren Replikate wir kaufen und ins Wohnzimmer stellen können. Identitätssplitter des Fremden als Eckpunkt touristischen Interesses. Aber wo wir uns befinden, der Ort, das konkrete Leben der Menschen dort, das interessiert uns nur bedingt.

Das Ende des Reisens

Es ist das Ende des Reisens. Wenn uns der Ort nicht wirklich interessiert, könnten wir auch im Bali- Center nebenan entspannen, auf Arte die Serie „unsere Erde" gucken, im vietnamesischen Restaurant zwei Straßen weiter lecker asiatisch essen oder die internationale Szenekneipe an der Ecke besuchen und dort Leila und Jane aus New York treffen. Das wäre ökologisch verantwortungsvoll, es würde das Klima schonen, die Ressourcen. Es wäre nachhaltig. Und würde Luft rausnehmen aus der Schnelllebigkeit, unter der in den hochindustrialisierten Ländern immer mehr Menschen leiden.

Die konsumorientierte Lebensweise empfinden immer mehr Menschen als krankmachend und die gesteigerte Mobilität als zu viel für ein einziges Leben. Gereiztheit, Langeweile, Gleichgültigkeit, Betäubung durch Konsum halten Einzug in die psychosoziale Befindlichkeit vieler Menschen. Aber ohne eine andere Reisepraxis gehen die Bedingungen für die lebenswichtige „Resonanz" (Hartmut Rosa) verloren. Es braucht den nötigen Raum, um sich im Austausch mit anderen wirklich zu spüren und die Chancen auf das Unvorhergesehene auch zu erkennen.

Und es braucht Zeit. Um die Qualität des Reisens zu rehabilitieren, sollte man seltener, aber dafür länger und intensiver unterwegs sein. Oder sich bewusst für Einfachheit entscheiden. Etwa für die eigenen Kräfte der Fortbewegung. Sylvain Tesson, französischer Reiseschriftsteller, bezeichnet dies als Reisen „by fair means". Darunter versteht er: zu Fuß, per Rad oder Kanu, zu Pferde und das Klettern mit den Händen. Sein Buch „Kurzer Bericht von der Unermesslichkeit der Welt" gibt Auskunft über die Folgen anderen Reisens: Die Zeit dehne sich wieder und die Welt gewinne die Größe und Großartigkeit zurück, die ihr zusteht.

Fliegen, immer öfter, immer weiter

Dem modernen Touristen geht es - trotz vollmundiger Bekenntnisse - nicht um ein nachhaltiges Reisen. Es geht nicht um die Ressourcenfrage, die Umwelt, die ursprüngliche Natur, sonst würde er nicht immer mehr und mehr fliegen. Es geht ihm auch nicht um Erholung und das Fremde an sich: In diesem neuen schönen, authentischen Tourismus geht es vor allem um Wettbewerbsvorteile an der Spitze der globalen Nahrungskette. Es geht um die Steigerung des Ich in allen seiner Potenzen, um besser dazustehen und sich vermarkten zu können. Mobilität und Beschleunigung sind eine Grundessenz der modernen kapitalistischen Entwicklung.

Bewegung ist alles und Reisen die Eintrittskarte in die kosmopolitische Welt, es ist „die Schlüsselpraxis unseres modernen Lebensstils" (Reckwitz). Tourismus ist unverzichtbar für unser gesellschaftliches Prestige. Bevor wir deshalb beim Zuhausebleiben ertappt werden, steigen wir lieber in den nächsten Billigflieger nach Amsterdam. Die Belohnung: Man darf sich als Avantgarde fühlen. Und im Bewusstsein sonnen, ökonomisch, ideologisch und auch im zwischenmenschlichen Bereich die Nase vorn zu haben.

Vielleicht sind die Selfies tatsächlich unsere einzige Selbstvergewisserung, dass wir fort waren. Selfie vor Dünen in der Wüste, dem World Trade Center oder den Ruinen von Machu Picchu.

Deshalb bitte unbedingt lächeln gegen den ganzen Stress.

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Widersprüche im Tourismus: Am Ende der Reise

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Verreisen ist unsere Passion, Nachhaltigkeit unser Wunsch. Wir essen vegan und fliegen billig. Paradoxien im touristischen Zeitalter. Diese Lustlosigkeit! Es liegt einem die Welt zu Füßen und wir erfreuen uns nicht daran. „Es ist nicht so, dass ich ungern reise. Es ist viel schlimmer. Ich verstehe das ganze Konzept nicht."

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Bericht über ein Awareness-Projekt zur Etablierung von Elementen der Kreislaufwirtschaft in der Bekleidungsbranche (Klick auf Bild unten).
Film als Impuls (Klick Link: https://twitter.com/wef/status/1105121202627112966).
Ideen: Zeithorizonte-Maßstabsebenenmatrix oder Raumkonzeptematrix als Basis für eine Awareness-Kampagne am Schulort (LP: Poster, Film, AdobeSpark etc.).

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New York City has a plan to fight fast fashion waste. Here's how it works

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City authorities and major brands are working with the Ellen MacArthur Foundation's #WearNext campaign to stop clothing ending up in landfill as part of a wider push to establish a circular business model for the fashion industry.

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Attribution: Ist das noch Wetter oder schon Klima?

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Attribution: Ist das noch Wetter oder schon Klima?

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Forschung zur Wahrscheinlichkeit der Zusammenhänge von Klimawandel und Extremwetterereignissen

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ATTRIBUTION | August 4. 2022. 16:30

In the early 2000s, a new field of climate-science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms.

Known as "extreme event attribution", the field has gained momentum, not only in the science world, but also in the media and public imagination. These studies have the power to link the seemingly abstract concept of climate change with personal and tangible experiences of the weather.

Scientists have published more than 400 peer-reviewed studies looking at weather extremes around the world, from wildfires in the US and heatwaves in India and Pakistan to typhoons in Asia and record-breaking rainfall in the UK. The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat.

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped - to the best of our knowledge - every extreme-weather attribution study published to date.

Carbon Brief's analysis reveals:

71% of the 504 extreme weather events and trends included in the map were found to be made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change.

9% of events or trends were made less likely or less severe by climate change, meaning 80% of all events experienced some human impact. The remaining 20% of events and trends showed no discernible human influence or were inconclusive.

Of the 152 extreme heat events that have been assessed by scientists, 93% found that climate change made the event or trend more likely or more severe.

For the 126 rainfall or flooding events studied, 56% found human activity had made the event more likely or more severe. For the 81 drought events studied, it's 68%.

First published in July 2017, this article is the fifth annual update (see endnote) to incorporate new studies. The aim is that it serves as a tracker for the evolving field of "extreme event attribution".

Using the map

The map above shows 504 extreme weather events and trends across the globe for which scientists have carried out attribution studies. The different symbols show the type of extreme weather; for example, a heatwave, flood or drought. The colours indicate whether the attribution study found a link to human-caused climate change (red), no link (blue) or was inconclusive (grey).

How to use our map of attribution studies.

Use the plus and minus buttons in the top-left corner, or double click anywhere, to zoom in on any part of the world. Click on a symbol to reveal more information, including a quote from the original paper to summarise the findings and a link to the online version.

The filter on the left allows users to select a specific type of weather event to look at or, for example, only those found to be influenced by climate change.

The filter can also be used to highlight extreme events from a particular year. (Note: earlier versions of this map classified events by the year that the study or analysis was published.) To isolate studies that assess the changing trends of weather extremes, click the "trend" box in the filter.

The software used to make the map currently only works with a Web Mercator projection (as used by virtually all major online map providers). It is worth noting that this - like all map projections - offers a somewhat distorted view of the world.

It is important to note that the weather events scientists have studied so far are not randomly chosen. They can be high-profile events, such as Hurricane Harvey, or simply the events that occurred nearest to scientific research centres. (More on this below.)

The map includes three different types of studies. The circles and hexagons on the map indicate papers published in peer-reviewed journals. The different shapes refer to whether the study considers an individual extreme event (circles), such as a wildfire or storm, or whether it analyses longer-term trends in extreme weather (hexagons), such as the change in frequency of flooding or marine heatwaves over time.

The third shape - triangles - indicate rapid attribution studies. These are quickfire assessments of the climate change contribution to extreme weather events, published online shortly after an event concludes. (More on this below.)

Finally, it is worth noting that some of the icon locations are approximate - particularly for studies that cover large regions. For example, global studies can be found grouped together in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Extreme weather types

The events and trends shown on the map are covered by 431 individual scientific papers or rapid studies. Where a single study covers multiple events or locations, these have been separated out into individual entries on the map.

Combining the evidence over the past 20 years, the literature is heavily dominated by studies of extreme heat (30%), rainfall or flooding (25%) and drought (16%). Together, these make up more than two-thirds of all published studies (71%). The full list is available in this Google sheet.

As the chart below shows, the number of extreme events studied has grown substantially over the past 10-15 years. Note that formal studies typically follow a year or so after the event itself as the writing and peer-review process for journal papers can take many months.

The majority of studies included here have been published in the annual "Explaining extreme events" special issues of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ( BAMS). Each bumper volume typically contains around 15-30 peer-reviewed studies of events from the previous year. Other studies have been found through the Climate Signals database and online searches through journals. This update includes studies published up to the end of May 2022.

(Note: The map currently only includes studies published in English.)

Specific types of event can be displayed in the chart below by clicking on the category names at the top.

Number of attribution studies by extreme weather event type and year. Note: the total number of events dipped in 2017 because the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society special report for that year was published in early 2018 rather than late 2017. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.

Most of the categories of extreme weather are self-explanatory, but "storms" and "oceans" require a bit of explanation.

For this latest iteration of the map, a new category of "compound" extreme events has also been added. This includes, for example, a 2021 study that found climate change had contributed to the "high likelihood" of combined dry and hot events in recent decades over most of China.

A man wades through a flooded road in Madagascar, after tropical cyclone Batsirai, Feb 2022. Credit: Xinhua / Alamy Stock Photo.

Such studies show that attribution studies are increasingly considering the impacts of extremes, rather than focusing purely on the weather event.

This shift towards impacts "is quite significant", says Prof Peter Stott, who leads the climate monitoring and attribution team at the Met Office Hadley Centre and has been a co-editor of the BAMS reports since they began in 2012. He tells Carbon Brief:

"Impacts are hard to do because you have to establish a significant link between the meteorology and the impact in question. As editors, we've been trying to encourage more studies on impacts because it's the impacts rather than the meteorology per se that tends to motivate these types of study - and if we only have the attribution on the meteorological event then we only have an indirect link to the relevant impact."

Attribution of climate impacts could even be used in the courts, one 2021 study explained. The authors wrote a Carbon Brief guest post explaining how attribution science can be "translated into legal causality". They wrote:

"Attribution can bridge the gap identified by judges between a general understanding that human-induced climate change has many negative impacts and providing concrete evidence of the role of climate change at a specific location for a specific extreme event that already has led or will lead to damages."

Human influence on extreme weather

Of the attribution studies included here, scientists found that human-caused climate change has altered the likelihood or severity of an extreme weather event in 80% of cases studied (71% made more severe or likely and 9% made less so).

In Carbon Brief's first edition of this analysis in 2017, 68% of events were found to have a human impact (with 63% made more severe or likely and 6% less so).

While these figures are not representative of all extreme weather events - attribution studies have only been conducted on a relatively small number - previous research has taken this broader view. For example, a 2015 study estimated the fraction of all globally occurring heat and heavy rainfall extremes that was attributable to warming. The authors found that around 75% of "moderate daily hot extremes over land" and 18% of "moderate daily precipitation extremes over land" were attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times. These fractions are expected to increase with further warming, the authors noted.

Note that events are classified here as having an human impact if climate change is found to have influenced at least one aspect of that event. For example, a study of the 2011 East Africa drought found that climate change contributed to the failure of the "long rains" in early 2011, but that the lack of "short rains" in late 2010 was down to the climate phenomenon La Niña. This event is, thus, designated as having a human impact.

For the majority of events affected by climate change, the balance has shifted in the same direction. That is, rising temperatures made the event in question more severe or more likely to occur. These events are represented by the red in the chart below. Clicking on the red "slice" reveals that heatwaves account for 40% of such events, rainfall or flooding for 20%, and droughts for 15%. Return to the original chart, and do the same with the other slices to see the proportion of different weather types in each category.

Pie chart showing the proportion of extreme events/studies that were found to have been made more likely/severe by climate change (red segment), less likely/severe (orange), had no link identified (blue) and were inconclusive or lacked sufficient data (grey). Clicking on a segment reveals the makeup of different types of extremes within that category. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.

In 11% of extreme weather events and trends studied, scientists found no discernible influence from human activity. These are coloured blue in the map and the chart above. For a further 9%, the observational data or modelling techniques used in the study were insufficient to reach a reliable conclusion (shown as grey in the map and pie chart).

In 9% of studied weather events and trends, scientists found climate change had made the event less likely or less severe (pale orange in the chart above).

Interestingly, a 2020 study analysed the way links between climate change and the California drought were portrayed in US media. It finds that the links were "covered widely in both local and national news", but notes:

"However, legitimate differences in the methods underpinning the attribution studies performed by different researchers often resulted in a frame of scientific uncertainty or disagreement in the media coverage."

As the case of California's drought shows, it is often necessary to dig deeper to understand the full picture. The rest of this article looks at the evidence for the three most-studied types of extreme weather - heatwaves, heavy rain and floods, and droughts - as well as some of the main issues in event attribution, and where the field as a whole is heading.

Heatwaves

The attribution map includes studies of 152 extreme heat events, of which 142 (93%) have been made more likely or more severe because of climate change. No studies have found a heatwave that has been made less severe by climate change, while studies of two events (1%) identified no influence and a further eight (5%) were inconclusive.

A volunteer pours water on a pedestrian during a heatwave in southern Pakistan, May 2022. Credit: Xinhua / Alamy Stock Photo.

The studies on extreme heat that did not find a role for climate change were an analysis of the Russian heatwave in 2010 and a rapid attribution study of the all-time high temperatures recorded in Rajasthan, India in May 2016. For the latter, the authors suggested that "the lack of a detectable trend may be due to the masking effect of aerosols on global warming and increased use of irrigation".

A particularly well-studied region for heatwaves in the literature is Australia, which accounts for 10% of the heat-related events included here. And climate change was found to play a role in all but one of the 15 Australian heat events studied. It is worth noting for that one event, however, that although the study (pdf, p145) was inconclusive for the city of Melbourne in south-east Australia, the authors did detect a human influence on extreme heat up the coast in Adelaide.

This raises a few important points. First, finding that climate change contributed to an event is not the same as saying it "caused" that event. Attribution is about working out if the likelihood or magnitude of a particular event happening now is different from what it would be in a world that was not warming.

A useful analogy - as explained in the first BAMS report in 2012 - is of a baseball player who starts taking steroids. If the player begins hitting 20% more home runs than before, it would not be possible to say for sure whether a particular home run is because of the steroids or the player's spontaneous skill. But it is possible to say how the steroids have altered the likelihood that the player hits a home run, by comparing their current and historical performances. As the report put it:

"Given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player's bat results in a home run, you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%."

Another important point is that in cases where attribution science finds that climate change is making a given type of extreme weather more likely, it does not necessarily follow that the chance of experiencing that kind of weather gets incrementally higher each year. Natural variability means that there will still be ups and downs in the strength and frequency of extreme events.

Finally, there is usually a level of confidence attached to attribution results. So, while two studies might both find a role for human influence in a given weather event, the signal may be stronger for one than the other. For the purposes of this analysis, the attribution map does not distinguish between high- and low-confidence results, but users can click through to each study for more details.

Heavy rain and flooding

Of the 126 rainfall or flooding events included in the attribution map, 71 (56%) found human activity had made the event more likely or more severe - a far smaller proportion than for heat-related studies. Nineteen studies (15%) found that climate change had made the whole event less likely to occur. Of the remaining heavy rainfall events, studies of 24 (19%) found no evidence of a link to climate change, while 12 (10%) were inconclusive.

That there is a more divided set of results for extreme rainfall than for heatwaves could suggest several things. In some cases, limited data might make it difficult to detect a clear "signal" of climate change above the "noise" of weather considered normal for a particular region. In other cases, an inconclusive result could reflect the fact that rainfall or flooding events are inherently more complex than heatwaves, with many ways for natural variability to play a role. Human factors, such as land use and drainage, also play a part in whether heavy rain leads to flooding.

Volunteers help move sandbags to protect a home from rising flood waters near Ottawa Canada, during 2019 floods. Credit: Colin Clarke / Alamy Stock Photo.

Take the UK, for example. While one study found climate change had increased the risk of floods in England and Wales in Autumn 2000 by at least 20% (and even up to 90%), another found little influence on summer rainfall in 2012 (pdf, p36).

This raises another important point. When it comes to interpreting the results of event attribution studies, it matters what the question is. For example, a 2013 study asked whether recent wet summers in north-western Europe were a response to retreating Arctic sea ice (pdf, p32). The answer from the study was "no". But, as a foreword from that year's BAMs report explains:

"Given the numerous ways climate change could influence precipitation in this region, a 'no' result for the role of Arctic sea ice should not be interpreted as an absence of any role at all for climate change."

The paper notes that, in a chaotic weather system, the complex dynamics of the atmosphere mean the size and path of a storm or heavy rainfall event has a large element of chance. This can make it tricky to identify where climate change fits in, potentially underestimating its influence.

Therefore, rather than analysing the weather patterns that bring a storm to an area, the authors argue that scientists should be looking at how the impact of that storm has been boosted by temperature changes - known as "thermodynamic" effects. Higher temperatures mean warmer seas, higher sea levels and more moisture evaporating into the atmosphere. These are changes that scientists can be more confident in, the authors wrote, and so should be the focus for attribution studies - rather than looking at changes to circulation patterns in the atmosphere.

For example, the paper reexamines an earlier study (pdf, p15) that suggested climate change had reduced the chances of the five-day heavy rainfall event that hit north-east Colorado in September 2013. Trenberth and colleagues argue that while climate change might not have made the specific weather system that brought the rain more likely, it will have contributed to the sheer volume of moisture in the atmosphere.

Chart shows the number of studies for each type of extreme event that fall within each category of human influence: More severe/likely (red), less severe/likely (yellow), no influence (blue) and inconclusive (grey). Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.

While attribution studies of heatwaves are generally more straightforward than storms - as they focus on thermodynamic influences - the type of question they are asking is still important. The Russian heatwave in 2010 is a good example of this. One study looking at the severity of the event did not find a role for climate change. Yet another one, which did find an influence, looked at the likelihood of the event.

This apparent contradiction is tackled by a third study that reconciles the other two. It explains that "the same event can be both mostly internally-generated [i.e. by natural variability] in terms of magnitude and mostly externally-driven [i.e. by human-caused climate change] in terms of occurrence probability".

Otto, who is lead author of the third study, tells Carbon Brief:

"The studies, thus, only appear to be contradictory, but are, in fact, complementary."

It is also important to stress that the absence of evidence for a link to climate change is not the same as evidence of absence. In other words, it does not necessarily mean there was no human influence, just that a particular analysis did not find one. This is why a single study should never be considered the final word on how climate change influences a given type of extreme weather.

Drought

Of the 81 drought events and trends considered here, climate change was found to have increased the severity or likelihood of 55 (68%). Of the remainder, the likelihood or severity was reduced for one event (1%), while no discernible link with human activity was found for 15 (19%) and 10 (12%) were inconclusive.

This mixed bag of results reflects the inherent complexity of droughts. And, again, the specific question matters. Conclusions about the role of climate change in a specific drought could depend on whether a study looks at temperature, rainfall or soil moisture, for example.

As the 2015 BAMS report explains:

"Drought continues to be an event type where the results require significant context, and easy answers often remain elusive because of the many meteorological, hydrological, and societal drivers that combine to cause drought."

(For more on the different ways that droughts can be categorised, see this Carbon Brief guest post from 2018.)

Geographical reach

While much has been achieved in the field of extreme event attribution in a short space of time, scientists are constantly looking for ways to tailor their work to suit the people who might use it.

One major goal since the early days of the field has been to expand extreme event attribution to cover a larger and more diverse geographical area.

Where in the world scientists can carry out attribution studies - and for what kind of events - will always be limited by the quality and availability of observed data and appropriate models. The attribution map highlights, for example, that there are relatively few studies of extreme weather in Africa and South America.

In another example, scientists hoping to analyse Super Typhoon Mangkhut - which hit the Philippines in September 2018 - were unable to in part because of "very poor quality" observed data in publicly available datasets and a lack of models.

At the moment, there is also a heavy leaning towards weather events that are local to the modelling groups, or that have a particular scientific interest. Otto explains:

"For example, scientists often do attribution studies because an event occurs on their doorstep. The UK, California and Boulder [in Colorado] are, therefore, studied much more than other parts of the world, but that does not necessarily make them places particularly impacted by climate change."

This means that while the studies carried out so far are indicative of the role climate change is playing in extreme weather around the world, they should not be considered representative of all types of extreme weather everywhere, says Otto. She tells Carbon Brief:

"[The studies so far] are part of a picture, but we don't know what's on the missing puzzle pieces. And, crucially, we don't know how many pieces are missing."

For example, Otto recently penned a Carbon Brief guest post on how the lack of monitoring of heatwaves in Africa means they are a "forgotten impact" of climate change.

Real-time extreme weather attribution

As well as expanding the science to cover different types of weather and more of the world, scientists are getting faster at turning the handle on extreme event attribution studies - sometimes crunching the numbers just days after an event has occurred.

The rapid studies included here are all produced by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, described earlier, or the UK Met Office.

An example of analysis performed by the latter includes their review of the UK's weather in 2020, which was published by Carbon Brief. This showed that climate change increased the likelihood of the UK's warm year by approximately a factor of 50.

While the WWA individual rapid assessments are not individually peer-reviewed, they are conducted using methods that have been through the peer-review process. As the 2014 BAMS report explains:

"Much like other routine analysis, such as an operational seasonal forecast, statements made about heat events using these methods do not necessarily need to go through the peer-reviewed literature to be considered credible."

By conducting the analysis in the immediate aftermath of a weather event, these rapid studies provide almost-real-time information on the influence of climate change, rather than having to wait many months for a formal study.

(In some cases, these rapid assessments are later published in peer-reviewed journals. In these instances, the formal study is included in the attribution map, rather than the initial analysis. In some cases, this means earlier rapid assessments are removed from the Carbon Brief map in order to add in the relevant peer-reviewed paper once it is published.)

The Trans Canada highway remains partially submerged by flood water after rainstorms lashed the western Canadian province of British Columbia in November 2021. Credit: Reuters / Alamy Stock Photo.

This collaboration between the UK Met Office, German weather service (DWD), Meteo France, Dutch weather service (KNMI) and the University of Oxford will "demonstrate how attribution of extreme weather events can be carried out operationally by national meteorological services", Prof Stott tells Carbon Brief:

"In this project we are developing and testing the protocols we will need to enable rapid and reliable assessments of the extent to which recent extreme weather events have been made more or less intense or more or less likely by climate change. We started at the beginning of the year and so far we have tested our procedures on an analysis of the 2018 heatwave in Europe."

The progress to date has "demonstrated the importance of international collaboration for developing new techniques and processes", says Stott. But "national meteorological services across Europe will continue to have a particular remit to deliver advice on weather and climate in their own countries", he adds:

"At the Met Office in the UK we are developing our operational attribution capability to help inform the public, policymakers and journalists about the extent to which damaging extreme weather events like the floods in Yorkshire [in 2019] have been affected by climate change."

An evolving science

As the science of extreme event attribution has matured and become more nuanced, so has the choice of terminology around extreme weather and climate change.

While some attest that all extreme weather must be affected by a world that is warming, this warrants some caution. As the first BAMS report in 2012 noted:

"While it has been argued that in the Anthropocene, all extreme weather or climate events that occur are altered by human influence on climate...this does not mean that climate change can be blamed for every extreme weather or climate event. After all, there has always been extreme weather."

But while it would be premature to suggest that any single study is the last word, it is clear that - in many cases - the science can do better than that. Similarly, scientific thinking has clearly moved on from the unsatisfactory statement that it is not possible to attribute any individual weather event to climate change. Indeed, as mentioned earlier, there have been some studies that have concluded that an event - or aspect of an event - would have been impossible without climate change.

Russian Federal Agency for Forestry works to put out a forest fire in Basly, Russia in August 2020. Credit: Reuters / Alamy Stock Photo.

Ultimately, there are no blanket rules in attribution. Scientists need to examine the circumstances of each individual weather event - or a longer pattern of events for trend studies. It is only by combining evidence from all around the world that they can begin to draw broader conclusions.

Attribution studies, therefore, rely heavily on the quality and availability of observational data and climate model simulations. In a short paper for the journal Weather, Dr Otto says that "the models used for attribution need to be able to reliably estimate the likelihoods of the types of events being attributed".

As discussed earlier, attribution studies of heatwaves tend to be more straightforward because of their focus on thermodynamic effects, rather than atmospheric circulation. Yet, Otto tells Carbon Brief that recent studies suggest models overestimate the year-to-year variability of heat extremes in some parts of the world, and thus underestimate the trend and the role of climate change.

In a rapid attribution study of the western Europe summer heatwave in 2019, for example, Otto and her colleagues found that, for the month of June, the models "show about 50% smaller trends than observations in this part of Europe and much higher year-to-year variability than the observations". Similarly, a study of the 2019-20 Australian bushfires noted that "models underestimate the observed trend in heat" and so the "real increase could be much higher".

These findings emphasise how important it is to analyse models and observations together, Otto says:

"This made me realise just how important attribution is for the scientific community - and everyone using climate science - at bringing observations and models together in a very concrete real-world test case.

Attribution can, therefore, be used to help scientists "identify where the models are doing well and for what they are not in a much more direct way than the classical skill assessment of climate projections does", adds Otto.

Forecasted attribution

One attempt to move attribution science forward was the very first "advance forecasted" attribution analysis, which quantified the impact of climate change on the size, rainfall, and intensity of Hurricane Florence before it made landfall in North Carolina in September 2018.

The analysis ran two sets of short-term forecasts for the hurricane: one as the climate is today and the other in a simulated world without human-caused climate change. The researchers concluded at the time:

"We find that rainfall will be significantly increased by over 50% in the heaviest precipitating parts of the storm. This increase is substantially larger than expected from thermodynamic considerations alone. We further find that the storm will remain at a high category on the Saffir-Simpson scale for a longer duration and that the storm is approximately 80km in diameter larger at landfall because of the human interference in the climate system."

The analysis received a mixed reaction. Prof Stott told Carbon Brief that it was "quite a cool idea", but would be dependent on being able to forecast such events reliably. Dr Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, described it as "a bit of a disaster". He told Carbon Brief that the quality of the forecast was questionable for the assessment:

"The forecasts made were not good: the intensity of the forecast storm at landfall was category 4 or 5 as I recall, instead of category 2. And so the statements made were based on quite flawed assumptions: namely, that they had a good forecast."

A key requirement for a reliable attribution study is for models to accurately replicate the extreme event, Trenberth added, but "obviously one can not assess the goodness of the forecast if one does this in advance".

Houses in North Carolina sit in floodwater caused by Hurricane Florence. Credit: Reuters / Alamy Stock Photo.

The authors subsequently published a paper in Science Advances that "reviews the forecasted attribution with the benefit of hindsight". The findings show that climate change increased rainfall amounts "associated with the forecasted storm's core" by around 5%, and contributed to Hurricane Florence being "about 9km larger in mean maximum diameter (or a 1.6% increase in storm area) due to climate change".

The authors acknowledged that the "quantitative aspects of our forecasted attribution statements fall outside broad confidence intervals of our hindcasted statements and are quite different from the hindcasted best estimates". In short, the results are quite a way off what they forecasted.

However, the authors also said they have identified what went wrong with their forecasted analysis. Problems with the way their "without climate change" model runs were set up created a larger contrast against their real-world simulations. The results thus suggested that climate change would have a bigger impact than it actually did.

Nonetheless, the study did identify a quantifiable impact of climate change on Hurricane Florence, adding to the evidence from studies by other author groups, the researchers concluded:

"As the climate continues to warm, it is expected that extreme tropical cyclone precipitation events and resulting inland flooding will become yet more frequent."

In addition, a 2021 study of the record Australian heat event of October 2015 noted the potential of their methods "to provide attribution statements for forecast events within an outlook period". This will "allow for informed messaging to be available as required when an extreme event occurs, which is of particular use to weather and climate services", the authors wrote.

On the topic of forecasts, a 2021 study showed how it was possible to use a weather forecast model for attribution. The researchers, who penned a Carbon Brief guest post about their work, tested their methods using the European heatwave of February 2019 - an event their model successfully predicted:

"We find that the direct impact of the extra carbon dioxide (CO2) that humans have pumped into the atmosphere made the event 42% more likely for the British Isles and at least 100% (two times) more likely for France."

Their work "so far represents just the first few steps towards an operational forecast-based attribution system", they noted.

Finally, as well as casting forwards, attribution can also look back in time. A 2020 study on the US " Dust Bowl " heat and drought events of the 1930s takes an unconventional approach of looking at how the past event "would behave" with present-day levels of greenhouse gases.

The researchers find that "the return period of a 1-in-100-year heatwave summer (as observed in 1936) would be reduced to about 1-in-40 years" in today's climate.

Carbon Brief will continue to add new extreme event attribution studies to the map and update the accompanying analysis every year. Please get in touch with any suggestions of attribution studies that could be included.

This is the fifth iteration of Carbon Brief's attribution map. This is the fourth iteration of Carbon Brief's attribution map. The first, second and third and fourth editions, published in July 2017, March 2019 and April 2020, respectively, are still available at the archived links included here.

Original interactive map by Rosamund Pearce for Carbon Brief. Revised and updated by Tom Prater and Joe Goodman.

Please note: International borders are determined by the mapping software, not Carbon Brief.

Update: This article was updated on 05/08/2022 to include a mention of a 2015 attribution study of all global heat and heavy rainfall extremes.

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Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world

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In the early 2000s, a new field of climate science research emerged that began to explore the human fingerprint on extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms.

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Twitter-Thread als Ideenkiste für Zukunftswerkstatt?
Klick Link: https://twitter.com/BrentToderian/status/939168127991943168

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Are you still being told there just isn’t enough space on your streets to make them enjoyable for walking, biking & transit? The capacity of streets is fundamentally about our priorities. Are streets for cars, or for everyone? #choice #multimodal HT @IanLockwoodPE

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Are you still being told there just isn’t enough space on your streets to make them enjoyable for walking, biking & transit? The capacity of streets is fundamentally about our priorities. Are streets for cars, or for everyone? #choice #multimodal HT @IanLockwoodPE https://t.co/XG5U9onnwq

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Are you still being told there just isn’t enough space on your streets to make them enjoyable for walking, biking & transit? The capacity of streets is fundamentally about our priorities. Are streets for cars, or for everyone? #choice #multimodal HT @IanLockwoodPE https://t.co/XG5U9onnwq

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Are you still being told there just isn’t enough space on your streets to make them enjoyable for walking, biking & transit? The capacity of streets is fundamentally about our priorities. Are streets for cars, or for everyone? #choice #multimodal HT @IanLockwoodPE https://t.co/XG5U9onnwq

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Are you still being told there just isn’t enough space on your streets to make them enjoyable for walking, biking & transit? The capacity of streets is fundamentally about our priorities. Are streets for cars, or for everyone? #choice #multimodal HT @IanLockwoodPE

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These 11 companies are leading the way to a circular economy

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From smart bins that analyse our trash, to chemical-free dyes and roads made of of recycled plastic, these innovations are creating a more sustainable world.

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These 11 companies are leading the way to a circular economy

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From smart bins that analyse our trash, to chemical-free dyes and roads made of of recycled plastic, these innovations are creating a more sustainable world.

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These 11 companies are leading the way to a circular economy

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From smart bins that analyse our trash, to chemical-free dyes and roads made of of recycled plastic, these innovations are creating a more sustainable world.

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Ideen für eine Zukunftswerkstatt?
Film via Twitter. Klick Link: https://twitter.com/thisisgeography/status/1103186382950989824

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Ideen für eine Zukunftswerkstatt?
Film via Twitter. Klick Link: https://twitter.com/thisisgeography/status/1103186382950989824

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Video: Entwicklungschancen durch Human Cloud Industry?

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Video: Entwicklungschancen durch Human Cloud Industry?

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Rolle der Digitalisierung: "Arbeitsplatzvernichter" hier Entwicklungsbeschleuniger dort?
The Economist, via Twitter

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The Economist via Twitter. Klick Link: https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1100168902640836608

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The Apple iPhone may be an American success story, but China has a stranglehold over key elements that go into smartphones

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The Apple iPhone may be an American success story, but China has a stranglehold over key elements that go into smartphones https://t.co/8mMsBzFxYJ

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The Apple iPhone may be an American success story, but China has a stranglehold over key elements that go into smartphones https://t.co/8mMsBzFxYJ

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The Apple iPhone may be an American success story, but China has a stranglehold over key elements that go into smartphones https://t.co/8mMsBzFxYJ

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The Apple iPhone may be an American success story, but China has a stranglehold over key elements that go into smartphones