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The last few million years of Earth's climate has been dominated by the ice age cycles. These consisted of long cool periods (glacials) where giant icesheets have grown on the continental land masses at, and near, the poles. With the water evaporated off the oceans being locked up as ice on land, this ice sheet build-up substantially lowered global sea level. During the shorter, warmer, intervals (interglacials) the ice sheets have disintegrated, and with their glacial meltwater draining back into the oceans, sea level has risen. From the coldest part of the last ice age (roughly 20,000 years ago) to present, global sea level has risen an astounding 120 metres.

Although all the details are not well understood, the driving force behind these glacial/interglacial cycles are slow variations in Earth's orbit as it circles the sun, which slightly decreased/increased the amount of sunlight reaching the planet's surface. For the current interglacial, the orbitally-driven warming eventually came to an end after the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO), and by 4-5000 years ago all the vulnerable land-based ice had disappeared. The volume of the global ocean was static until the arrival of the Industrial Revolution, and by the 19th Century global sea level had begun to rise again. Despite undergoing short-term accelerations, and decelerations, globally-averaged sea level has undergone long-term acceleration up to the present day ( Church & White [2006], Merrifield [2009]).
Figure 2 - Global mean sea level from 1870 to 2006 with one standard deviation error estimates (Church 2008 Rapid Coupling Between Ice Volume and Polar Temperature ).
With some 60-70 metres worth of global sea level equivalent locked up in the vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, and with global warming well underway, it raises the question of how much sea level rise we are likely to see this century (and beyond), and just how fast this might happen. Because the dynamics of ice sheet disintegration are only very crudely known, and ice sheet modelling is in its infancy, there is a large range of estimates of future sea level rise. Many now seem to converge on 1-2 metres of sea level rise by 2100 - much higher than current rates. But is this realistic? A recent paper, examining past ice sheet disintegrations, lends credence to these estimates.
Constructing a Well-Resolved Chronological Record of Sea Level
A peer-reviewed paper, Grant (2012), outlines how the authors created a well-dated, and near-continuous, record of sea level over the last 150,000 years, a period which spans the last interglacial ( the Eemian), and the last glacial maximum. Of particular interest is the finding that, during all periods of major global ice volume loss, rates of sea level rise reached at least 1.2 metres per century. An arguably more important finding that the more finely resolved dating uncovered, was that major ice sheet reductions (as implied by sea level rise) followed polar warming much quicker than had previously been suspected.

The backbone of the sea level reconstruction are Foraminifera (forams), tiny shelled marine creatures which float in the water column (planktic), or live on the seafloor (benthic). Because they utilize minerals dissolved in the surrounding seawater to build their shells, forams incorporate elements into their shells which can provide information about the climate at the time in which they lived. Examination of oxygen-18 isotope ratios in the shells of forams, retrieved from Red Sea sediment cores, has revealed that they serve as a useful proxy for relative (i.e local) sea level in the Red Sea (see Siddall [2003] & Siddall [2004]). Although a near-continuous record of relative sea level for the Red Sea has been constructed ( Rohling [2009]), accurate, and independent, dating for comparison with ice-core data has proven problematic. Grant (2012), however, came up with a clever way around this roadblock.

Much like the Red Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea is a basin with only one narrow natural opening ( The Strait of Gibraltar) which connects it to the rest of the oceans. This "basin effect" was exploited to build a sea level history in the Red Sea, because the extremely slow exchange of seawater within the basin means long local seawater residence times. The raising or lowering of sea level therefore acts to either shorten, or prolong the residence time of local seawater, and also diminish or enhance the powerful rate of evaporation in the basin. In other words, changes in the oxygen-18 isotopes ratios, found in Red Sea foram fossils, are extremely sensitive to sea level variations. So the isotopes are, in effect, recorders of local sea level.

Grant (2012) likewise created a sea level history for the eastern Mediterranean Sea, with one distinct improvement; they were able to independently date the sea level variations by taking advantage of oxygen-18 isotopes stored in cave mineral deposits (speleothems) on land downwind of the eastern Mediterranean surface waters. With oxygen-18 isotopes in fossilized forams, and in the cave deposits ( Soreq Cave), linked via the hydrological cycle, Uranium-Thorium dating of the cave deposits therefore gave an accurate date for both, and consequently the timing of sea level variations.
Sea Level Rise Closely Follows Polar Warming
Because of the more complicated weather patterns in the Mediterranean however, the Mediterranean sea level history cannot be used to determine sea level variations with sufficient precision ( Rohling 1999). To do that, the authors transferred their new Mediterranean chronology to the Red Sea sea level history. The basin isolation effect of both sea level records, gave sufficient oxygen isotope signal similarity for accurate transfer. The validity of this newly-dated sea level reconstruction was confirmed by comparison to other dated sea level benchmarks.

Figure 3a - Correlation of Soreq Cave (red line) and eastern Mediterranean (black line) oxygen-18 isotope signals. 3b - Eastern Mediterranean Sea oxygen-18 isotope record from another foram species (green line) and the highest probability sea level curve (blue line). The coloured dots and grey-shaded columns denote other paleodata used to validate and synchronize the reconstructions. From Grant (2012).
Learning From (Sea Level) History
With an accurately dated sea level reconstruction now available, the authors were able to compare these sea level variations in time with that of polar temperature, as ascertained by ice cores extracted from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Within the sea level reconstruction there are 6 periods where sea level rose rapidly, reaching rates of at least 1.2 metres per century - around 4 times the current rate of sea level rise (see Figure 1).

Considering that humans have been warming the climate for several centuries, a more significant finding was the short time lag between warming at the poles (as shown in the ice cores), and the response of sea level rise - which implies the disintegration of the ice sheets. In the case of Antarctica, large ice reductions occur within 400-700 years, and for Greenland, ice reductions occur very quickly - within 100 years.
This piece was originally published at Skeptical Science and was reprinted with permission.
Despite glacial periods having much more vulnerable ice at lower elevation, and closer to the equator than interglacials, the orbitally-driven warming which eventually disintegrated the ice sheets was a leisurely affair. Ice sheet collapse came quickly due to the greater proportion of vulnerable ice. By comparison; today there is far less vulnerable ice, but the warming has been virtually instantaneous, in geological terms. In fact, in the last 300 million years, the Earth has not experienced (as far as we know) such a rapid rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide ( Hönisch [2012]).

The altered characteristics of the background climate state, from glacial to interglacial, makes a direct comparison for modern-day difficult. But current sea level rise estimates, and the rates of rise shown in the reconstruction, are in the same ballpark. With global warming having been underway for several centuries now, and with the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets undergoing accelerated ice mass loss due to polar warming, the past 150,000 years of sea level history suggests we should expect much higher rates of sea level rise in the future.

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150,000 Years Of Sea Level History Suggests High Rates Of Future Sea Level Rise

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The last few million years of Earth's climate has been dominated by the ice age cycles. These consisted of long cool periods (glacials) where giant icesheets have grown on the continental land masses at, and near, the poles. With the water evaporated off the oceans being locked up as ice on land, this ice sheet build-up substantially lowered global sea level.

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Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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101 (± 4.0) mm

This is the "uncertainty margin," or the range from the mean (average) within which there is a high probability that the true number resides. For example, when we say global sea level has risen 101 mm +/- 4 mm, the true value has a high probability of being between 97 and 105 mm. The uncertainty margin exists both because of sea level variability (sea level above the first point in the time series) in the ocean and the accuracy with which we measure the individual values.

Key Takeaway:

Global sea levels are rising as a result of human-caused global warming, with recent rates being unprecedented over the past 2,500-plus years.

Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers, and the expansion of seawater as it warms. The first graph tracks the change in global sea level since 1993, as observed by satellites.

The second graph, which is from coastal tide gauge and satellite data, shows how much sea level changed from about 1900 to 2018. Items with pluses (+) are factors that cause global sea level to increase, while minuses (-) are what cause sea level to decrease. These items are displayed at the time they were affecting sea level.

The data shown are the latest available, with a four- to five-month delay needed for processing.

* You now need to create an Earthdata account to access NASA's sea level data. Register here for free. Once logged in, click the "download data" button on this page to access the data.
NASA Sea Level Change

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Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. Current news and data streams about global warming and climate change from NASA.

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tropical maritime trees or shrubs that send out many prop roots and form dense masses important in coastal land building and as foundations of unique ecosystems

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any of a genus (Rhizophora, especially R. mangle of the family Rhizophoraceae) of tropical maritime trees or shrubs that send out many prop roots and form dense masses important in coastal land building and as foundations of unique ecosystems... See the full definition

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Between the 1940s and 1980s, three of the eight tiger subspecies vanished from the map. The Bali tiger, the Caspian tiger and the Javan tiger did not survive intensive hunting, poaching and deforestation.

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With a current population of 4,000 individuals, the Bengal tiger is the most numerous of the subspecies, accounting for roughly half of the world’s tigers.

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The 140,000-hectare Sundarbans is one of the largest mangrove forests in the world, and a sanctuary for rare Ganges and Irabati dolphins, as well as the estuarine crocodile and Indian python. The UNESCO world heritage site is also home to over 500 Bengal tigers.

But coastal erosion and increasing sea levels are gradually devouring the vast forests shared by India and Bangladesh. Flooding of low-lying deltas and acidification of soil are also affecting the livelihoods of the local population and the area's biodiversity.

A number of people from the Sundarbans villages have migrated to the state capital, Kolkata. Rising sea levels and salinity have deprived the people living in the core Sunderbans areas of their main sources of livelihood.

The December oil spill will have a long-term ecological impact, say experts

"Rising tides, cyclone and climate change have affected our livelihoods. It is not easy to find the fish, and many people have changed their professions," Satyanath Patra, a fisherman, told DW.

Some of these people - known as "climate refugees" - are now working in the construction industry or as domestic workers.

Shrinking islands

Recent studies and satellite images show that nearly four percent of the Sundarbans forests (9,990 hectares of land) have disappeared due to land erosion in the past few years. Several islands in this 100-odd island conglomerate have also vanished, whereas a dozen others have been abandoned because of the rising sea levels.

"The coastline is retreating by as much as 200 meters a year. A lot needs to be done to change the scenario," Sanjay Gupta, a senior consultant at the World Bank, told DW.

A recently released report by the financial institution says the cost of environmental damage associated with ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss in the area amounts to some $107 million per year.

Human intervention in the Sundarbans, which include illegal construction of buildings, brick kiln encroachments and shrimp farming, has also put an enormous pressure on the area's fragile ecosystem.

In December last year, a tanker sank and dumped hundreds of liters of furnace oil into the country's protected delta after a collision with another vessel. The oil spread over 350-square-kilometer area straddling Bangladesh and India.

"Unless something drastic is done by the various stakeholders in the Sundarbans, we could be losing these pristine forests very soon. This vulnerable population is least prepared to cope with the devastating effects," Jayanta Basu, an environment and health expert, told DW.

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Rising sea levels threaten Sundarbans forests | Asia | DW | 26.03.2015

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The 140,000-hectare Sundarbans is one of the largest mangrove forests in the world, and a sanctuary for rare Ganges and Irabati dolphins, as well as the estuarine crocodile and Indian python. The UNESCO world heritage site is also home to over 500 Bengal tigers.

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Core samples, tide gauge readings, and, most recently, satellite measurements tell us that over the past century, the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) has risen by 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). However, the annual rate of rise over the past 20 years has been 0.13 inches (3.2 millimeters) a year, roughly twice the average speed of the preceding 80 years.

Over the past century, the burning of fossil fuels and other human and natural activities has released enormous amounts of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. These emissions have caused the Earth's surface temperature to rise, and the oceans absorb about 80 percent of this additional heat.

The rise in sea levels is linked to three primary factors, all induced by this ongoing global climate change:

Thermal Expansion: When water heats up, it expands. About half of the past century's rise in sea level is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.

Melting Glaciers and Polar Ice Caps: Large ice formations, like glaciers and the polar ice caps, naturally melt back a bit each summer. In the winter, snows, primarily from evaporated seawater, are generally sufficient to balance out the melting. Recently, though, persistently higher temperatures caused by global warming have led to greater-than-average summer melting as well as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. This imbalance results in a significant net gain in the ratio of runoff to ocean evaporation, causing sea levels to rise.

Ice Loss from Greenland and West Antarctica: As with the glaciers and ice caps, increased heat is causing the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt at an accelerated pace. Scientists also believe meltwater from above and seawater from below is seeping beneath Greenland's and West Antarctica's ice sheets, effectively lubricating ice streams and causing them to move more quickly into the sea. Higher sea temperatures are causing the massive ice shelves that extend out from Antarctica to melt from below, weaken, and break off.

When sea levels rise rapidly, as they have been doing, even a small increase can have devastating effects on coastal habitats. As seawater reaches farther inland, it can cause destructive erosion, wetland flooding, aquifer and agricultural soil contamination, and lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants.

When large storms hit land, higher sea levels mean bigger, more powerful storm surges that can strip away everything in their path.

In addition, hundreds of millions of people live in areas that will become increasingly vulnerable to flooding. Higher sea levels would force them to abandon their homes and relocate. Low-lying islands could be submerged completely.

Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and is likely to accelerate. Oceans will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the degree to which they will rise is an inexact science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise between 11 and 38 inches (28 to 98 centimeters) by 2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. More dire estimates, including a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, place sea level rise to 23 feet (7 meters), enough to submerge London.

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Core samples, tide gauge readings, and, most recently, satellite measurements tell us that over the past century, the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) has risen by 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). However, the annual rate of rise over the past 20 years has been 0.13 inches (3.2 millimeters) a year, roughly twice the average speed of the preceding 80 years.

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An oil spill in Bengal's unique Sundarbans mangrove forest is threatening the world's greatest population of tigers.

A tanker carrying more than 350,000 litres of oil sank in the Shela river after colliding with another vessel.

The incident occurred near the UNESCO's World Heritage Site Sundarbans forest - of which 60% is in Bangladesh and the rest in India - home to the world's largest tiger reserve.

More than 400 Bengal tigers - declared an endangered species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in 2010 - are believed to live in the area.

Only 3,000 tigers are left in the wild, down from over 100,000 at the beginning of the 20th century.The remaining global population is under severe pressure from poaching and loss of natural habitat.

"The oil tanker, Southern Star 7, has been salvaged. A rescue vessel pulled it out from the river and towed it to a nearby shoal," Amir Hossain, chief forest official of the Sundarbans, was quoted by AP as saying.

"This catastrophe is unprecedented in the Sundarbans and we don't know how to tackle this."

He added that the world's largest mangrove forest, which is in the Suburban region, is also at risk.

"The oil spill has already blackened the shoreline (and is) threatening trees, plankton, vast populations of small fishes and dolphins."

Rubayat Mansur, Bangladesh head of the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society, said:"I visited the sunken trawler this morning. Only few hundred litres of oil remain inside, so almost all the oil has spilled into the Sundarbans."

He added that oil dispersants were "not appropriate for the mangrove ecosystem" and urged local villagers to help collect the oil from nets that have been placed in the river to contain its spread.

Rare Irrawaddy and Ganges dolphins are also threatened by the spill.

Tapan Kumar Dey, a senior wildlife conservation official, said that though wildlife species are at a high risk due to the oil spill, no deaths of any animals had been reported so far.

"We have spotted dolphins coming out of the water for air and going down again in some places ... crocodiles' movement in the affected areas has been less after the disaster and we are trying to determine actually what happened to them," Dey said.

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Sunderbans: World's largest Bengal tiger population threatened by oil spill

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An oil spill in Bengal's unique Sundarbans mangrove forest is threatening the world's greatest population of tigers. A tanker carrying more than 350,000 litres of oil sank in the Shela river after colliding with another vessel.

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VIDEO

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The Sundarbans are the largest mangrove forest and sanctuary for a number of the world's most endangered species. The forest has the largest single population of Bengal tigers in the world. But this unique ecosystem is under threat. We have to act now. We can save the Sunderbans - not just for us, but for generations to come.

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Bangladesh: Preserving Biodiversity in the Sundarbans

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The Sundarbans are the largest mangrove forest and sanctuary for a number of the world's most endangered species. The forest has the largest single population of Bengal tigers in the world. But this unique ecosystem is under threat. We have to act now.

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The number of tigers in India has increased by almost a third in the last three years, official figures released on Tuesday reveal.

The rise, from 1,706 in 2011 to 2,226 in 2014, will encourage campaigners fighting to protect the endangered species. Activists called the new statistics "robust" and "very good news".

Around 70% of the world's wild tigers live in India, where their habitat has been threatened by uncontrolled development and poaching.

Repeated efforts to stem trade and protect tigers from environmental pressures failed to stop their numbers in India dwindling to 1,411 in 2006.

Prakash Javadekar, the environment minister in the emerging south Asian power, said the latest figures showed a huge success story and demonstrated that the current strategy of creating reserves staffed by specialist government staff was working.

"That is why we want to create more tiger reserves. This is a proof of India's biodiversity and how we care for mitigating climate change. This is India's steps in the right direction, which the world will applaud," he said.

India, one of the world's biggest producers of carbon dioxide but still one of the poorest countries despite recent growth, is under pressure to announce measures on cutting greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change following a recent agreement between the US and China.

The new Indian government has also repeatedly said that it will prioritise economic growth, and has been criticised by some for rolling back moves to protect the environment.

Belinda Wright, of the Wildlife Protection Society of India (WPSI), said the increase in tiger numbers could be attributed to a new focus over the last three or four years which has led to better field patrolling and monitoring, among other factors.

"There still remains the habitat destruction and encroachment. Hopefully the new figures will increase the pressure on the government to tread carefully when it is a matter of development in tiger habitats," Wright said.

The new census was conducted by the National Tiger Conservation Authority and involved nearly 10,000 camera traps. Almost 80% of the tigers counted in the survey had been photographed and identified individually, Javadekar said.

Most of India's tigers live in nearly 50 wildlife reserves set up since the 1970s.

The natural habitat of tigers in India - tropical evergreen forests, deciduous forests, mangrove swamps, thorn forests and grass jungles - has almost disappeared outside reserves. Even inside designated zones, unchecked development of tourism and other industries has restricted space and food. Many end up foraging in areas with large human populations, leading to fatalities.

A 24-year-old man was killed by a tiger on the outskirts of one national park in the central state of Madhya Pradesh earlier this month.

Last year specialist hunters on elephants tracked a tiger in northern India that may have killed as many as 10 people on a 150-mile journey through villages, fields and forests, during which it crossed rivers and six-lane motorways.

"We must ensure animal-human conflict does not happen," said Javadekar. "We have proactively decided that we will create more grasslands and water storage in forest areas so that animals can live well."

In 2013 India's supreme court imposed a temporary ban on tourism in the areas of national parks where tigers live. It was lifted after four months, thanks to vociferous protests from tour operators and guides.

However governance appears to be the main factor. In Uttar Pradesh, the lawless and poor northern state, tiger numbers have fallen, officials have said, with some reserves losing almost half of their population.

Around 40 tigers were killed by poachers in India in 2013 - the highest number since 2005. A total of 923 tigers were killed by poachers between 1994 and 2010, according to WPSI.

Demand for their body parts for use in traditional medicine in China and elsewhere in east Asia remains robust. Leopards and rhinos are also targeted. Prosecution of poachers is rare, convictions rarer and intelligence-led preventive policing non-existent.

Wright, the conservationist, said a major problem was the lack of corridors linking reserves which would permit tigers to travel in search of mates outside their immediate community.

"We need to focus on tiger landscapes and gene-flow. Tigers need to disperse from the source population," she said.

The current tiger population is a fraction of the 45,000 that roamed India a century ago.

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India's tiger population increases by almost a third

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The number of tigers in India has increased by almost a third in the last three years, official figures released on Tuesday reveal. The rise, from 1,706 in 2011 to 2,226 in 2014, will encourage campaigners fighting to protect the endangered species. Activists called the new statistics "robust" and "very good news".

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Between 1900 and 1972, the Bengal tiger population dropped from 40,000-50,000 to under 2,000

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Bengal tiger (Endangered Species) - Humanima - Discovery

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Bengal tigers are hunted for their valuable pelts.

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The Sundarbans mangrove forest, one of the largest such forests in the world (140,000 ha), lies on the delta of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers on the Bay of Bengal. It is adjacent to the border of ...

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Washington DC, June 19, 2013-Bangladesh will be among the most affected countries in South Asia by an expected 2°C rise in the world's average temperatures in the next decades, with rising sea levels and more extreme heat and more intense cyclones threatening food production, livelihoods, and infrastructure as well as slowing the reduction on poverty, according to a new scientific report released today by the World Bank Group.

The report cited Bangladesh as one of more "potential impact hotspots" threatened by "extreme river floods, more intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels and very high temperatures". Cyclone Sidr exposed 3.45 million households to inundation. A potential 10 year return cyclone in 2050 could expose 9.7 million people to more than 3 meters of inundation affecting agriculture and lives.

Depicting life in a not-too-distant future shaped by already present warming trends, the report warns that even 20 to 30 years from now, shifting rain patterns could leave some areas under water and others without enough water for power generation, irrigation or drinking. South Asia is already experiencing a warming climate.

"Bangladesh faces particularly severe challenges with climate change threatening its impressive progress in overcoming poverty," said Johannes Zutt, World Bank Country Director for Bangladesh and Nepal. "Bangladesh has demonstrated itself as a leader in moving the climate change agenda forward. The World Bank is providing support to enhance the country's resilience to climate change impacts through adaptation interventions and better disaster preparedness."

Turn Down The Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience builds on a 2012 Bank report that concluded the world would warm by 4°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century if countries did not take concerted action now. This new report looks at the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities across South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South East Asia.

The report, prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics and peer reviewed by 25 scientists worldwide, says the consequences for South Asia of a warming climate are even worse if global temperatures increased by an average of 4°C by 2090. In this scenario, seen as likely unless action is taken now to limit carbon release in the atmosphere, South Asia would suffer more extreme droughts and floods, rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and declines in food production. For example, flood areas could increase by as much as 29% for a 2.5 ° C in Bangladesh.

A warming climate will contribute to slowing the reduction in poverty. While the lives of everyone in the region will be altered by climate change, the impacts of progressive global warming will fall hardest on the poor. Low crop yields and associated income loss from agriculture will continue the trend toward migration from rural to urban centers. In Bangladesh, 40% of productive land is projected to be lost in the southern region of Bangladesh for a 65cm sea level rise by the 2080s. About 20 million people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh are already affected by salinity in drinking water. Rising sea levels and more intense cyclones and storm surges could intensify the contamination of groundwater and surface water causing more diarrhea outbreaks.

"In the South Asia region, it is urgent to do prevention work, some of which is already happening," said Isabel Guerrero, World Bank Vice President for South Asia Region. "Bangladesh is at the fore front; we have projects and a large multi-donor fund that works on having early warning systems for floods and embankments when there are floods to protect crops and fields and to prevent destruction of the urban infrastructure. And some farmers are already growing vegetables that are adapted to water. Last but not least, it is very important that the countries in the region have a voice in the global conversation about climate change."

Many of the worst climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming below 2°C, but the window for action is narrowing rapidly. Urgent action is needed to build resilience through economic development to risks to agriculture, water resources, coastal infrastructure, and human health.

" I do not believe the poor are condemned to the future scientists envision in this report. In fact, I am convinced we can reduce poverty even in a world severely challenged by climate change," said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. " We can help cities grow clean and climate resilient, develop climate smart agriculture practices, and find innovative ways to improve both energy efficiency and the performance of renewable energies. We can work with countries to roll back harmful fossil fuel subsidies and help put the policies in place that will eventually lead to a stable price on carbon."

For a copy of Turn Down The Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience go to: https://climatechange.worldbank.org

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Warming Climate to Hit Bangladesh Hard with Sea Level Rise, More Floods and Cyclones, World Bank Report Says

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Washington DC, June 19, 2013- Bangladesh will be among the most affected countries in South Asia by an expected 2°C rise in the world's average temperatures in the next decades, with rising sea levels and more extreme heat and more intense cyclones threatening food production, livelihoods, and infrastructure as well as slowing the reduction on poverty, according to a new scientific report released today by the World Bank Group.

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Introduction

Coastal livelihoods in SW Bangladesh are largely dependent on its natural resources of mangrove forest (timber, wood fuel, honey, fish and other aquatic species) agriculture and marine fisheries. Following construction of the coastal embankment and other development investment there have been drastic environmental changes. Loss of life in major flooding events have been reduced. However, this has not led to overall improvements in the living condition of the majority of people.

Our aim in WD-NACE has been to develop and test participatory methods for gathering the data to populate a conceptual framework to understand decision-making in coastal resources. In Bangladesh the issue of the emergence of shrimp farming, associated land-use changes (where it comes into competition with paddy farming and encroaches upon mangrove areas), ecological changes and social contestation has been identified as an ongoing challenge for decision-making and policy formulation (linkage between ecosystem services (ES) and poverty alleviation (PA)).

The question of how to mitigate negative impacts of shrimp farming on other kinds of livelihood and obtain equitable benefits and alleviate poverty, should be understood as an intersection of individual, community and national-level decision-making. It must also be understood in the context of increasing pressure on resources, global market changes, climate change-related hazards.

Bangladesh in the media

This section provides links to articles that highlight some of the issues being investigated in WD-NACE SW Bangladesh case study. There is huge attention to major flood events, environmental change and livelihood adaptation in the region. This is a collection of informative articles that could be of interest to weADAPT readers.

Here is a good update on what is happening in the SW coast of Bangladesh and what partners ( BCAS, CEGIS and Shushilan) are doing to help: New Internationalist article

Two newspaper articles on the 2nd anniversary of cyclone AILA in the Sundarban area:
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=187254
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=187242

The following sections provide further background to the situation in SW Bangladesh and outline some of the approaches taken to understand the 'whole decision network'. Most of the following work is 'in preparation' for publication; therefore further information will be added soon.
Resource mapping
Approach

Participants engaged in WD-NACE workshops were asked to discuss the state of coastal and marine ecosystems in the Shatkhira district, as a representative case study for Bangladesh. The state of ecosystems was discussed at all levels (national to local), but the trends and drivers of change were discussed in more depth at the local-level workshops. Drivers of change were explored in terms of human actions that contributed to a change in the state of resources and ecosystems.

Social Network Mapping
Since the early 1990s, shrimp farming has surpassed marine shrimp harvesting due to rapid wild shrimp stock decline. The main driver behind the growth of shrimp cultivation is commercial, export-oriented business, which in two decades has displaced labour from other local agricultural activities. Although shrimp farming continues to grow occupying a larger area over time (currently 90% of the area), productivity has decreased in about 30% due to virus attacks and an increase of salinity in water after the cyclone AILA affected the embankment and illegal construction of gates started in the 1990s by influential people at that time. In 2009, a new regulation was introduced by the Bangladesh Water Development Board to close all illegal sluice gates and limit the boundaries of farming to reduce production loss. The former decision had positive effects on salinity control although people started circulating saline water for shrimp farming over pipelines. The latter decision had positive impacts on people and on the shrimp resource. To complement and diversify shrimp farming, crab cultivation and collection has expanded rapidly in the area since the early 2000s supported by an increase in international demand accompanied with low production costs.

Also see this placemark on the resource trends in Munshigonj

Social network mapping (SNM) was used to explore relationships between the different actors that shape the governance of coastal ecosystems in Bangladesh. The method was developed based on the NetMap Toolbox developed by Schiffer (2007, 2010) and adapted to be integrated with steps of the ARDI methodology developed by Etienne et al. (2006). Participatory network mapping was conducted through workshops at the national-l, sub-national-l (i.e. district and regional workshops) and local-levels, involving relevant organizations at each level.

During each workshop, participants were divided in groups with similar or shared interests. As a result, three groups were formed in each workshop: public institutions and authorities, the private sector, and the non-governmental organizations and civil society. In the case of local workshops, the local realities required a different distribution: shrimp businessmen, fishermen, labour workers, and farmers and women.

Groups discussed problematic issues around coastal and marine ecosystems, focusing on the Satkhira district to provide a common reference point. They were asked: "What actors play a role (or should play a role) in the management of coastal and marine ecosystems to improve human well-being and alleviate poverty?"

Once presented with the question above, participants in each group were requested to list all the organizations (i.e. network actors or nodes) that (directly or indirectly) manage the coastal and marine ecosystems in the area. This list of actors was used to develop the social network maps in each working group. They show three types of ties or flows between the actors (i.e. network edges), namely: information/ knowledge flows, capacity support flows, and financial flows. Examples are shown below:

Sustainability analysis

1. Shrimp farming is more profitable than paddy (especially for large land managers that can acheive economies of scale; whereas for small farmers it carries some risks)

2. River water access is necessary for shrimp, and therefore it is likely that farmers near river decide to do shrimp farming

3. Leeching of salt occurs from shrimp area to paddy

4. Build-up of salt deposits may exceed what is rinsed out during monsoon rains

5. High salinity is detrimental to paddy health, and therefore a high % of shrimpfarms leads to overall saline condition, influencing other farmers to decide for shrimp production

Sustainability analysis was carried out at the local, community level in each of the three study regions (Satkhira, Bagerhat and Khulna) as well as at wider scales of decision-making, regional and national, in order to understand how sustainability is framed at different levels and in different locations, using Q-Methodology. The study focused on the three topics of: the mangrove forest ecosystem, coastal waters (including fisheries and flood control) and shrimp-farming activities. Participants were asked their views about the challenges for management and law-making, and about the impacts of different livelihoods/activities or other drivers such as climate change.
Acknowledgement:

Statistical techniques were used to construct groups that shared similar views, followed by qualitative interpretation of the similarities and differences among group responses, to build an aggregated picture of different framings of sustainability and possible tensions where beliefs (and interests) differ. For example, identification of one group oriented towards forest conservation, one group supportive of shrimp farming, and one group with a disapproval of local governance, could help to explain why certain policies have or have not been implemented in an area.

Social-ecological system modelling

Modelling approaches included ecological system modelling, agent-based modelling and multi-criteria analysis decision modelling. A prototype agent-based social simulation model to explore the shrimp-paddy interactions and farm livelihoods was developed through participatory work in the region. The model illustrates the following ideas:

Shrimp farming therefore has a reinforcing character and it is easy to understand how a shrimp farming regime may emerge. A screenshot of the simulation model is shown below.

This work was funded by the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation programme (ESPA) as project number NE/I00288X/1. ESPA is funded by the Department for International Development (DFID), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), as part of the UK's Living with Environmental Change Programme (LWEC).

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Mangrove ecosystem and shrimp aquaculture in SW Bangladesh

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Coastal livelihoods in SW Bangladesh are largely dependent on its natural resources of mangrove forest (timber, wood fuel, honey, fish and other aquatic species) agriculture and marine fisheries. Following construction of the coastal embankment and other development investment there have been drastic environmental changes. Loss of life in major flooding events have been reduced.

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Climate change could drown out Sundarbans tigers - study

One of the world's largest tiger populations could disappear by the end of this century as rising sea levels caused by climate change destroy their habitat along the coast of Bangladesh in an area known as the Sundarbans, according to a new WWF-led study published in the journal Climatic Change.

Tigers are among the world's most threatened species, with only an estimated 3,200 remaining in the wild. WWF officials said the threats facing these Royal Bengal tigers and other iconic species around the world highlight the need for urgent international action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

"If we don't take steps to address the impacts of climate change on the Sundarbans, the only way its tigers will survive this century is with scuba gear," said Colby Loucks, WWF-US deputy director of conservation science and the lead author of the study Sea Level Rise and Tigers: Predicted Impacts to Bangladesh's Sundarbans Mangroves. "Tigers are a highly adaptable species, thriving from the snowy forests of Russia to the tropical forests of Indonesia.

"The projected sea level rise in the Sundarbans will likely outpace the tiger's ability to adapt."

An expected sea level rise of 28 cm above 2000 levels may cause the remaining tiger habitat in the Sundarbans to decline by 96 percent, pushing the total population to fewer than 20 breeding tigers, according to the study.

Action on climate change needed to save the Sundarbans

Unless immediate action is taken, the Sundarbans, its wildlife and the natural resources that sustain millions of people may disappear within 50 to 90 years, the study states.

"The mangrove forest of the Bengal tiger now joins the sea-ice of the polar bear as one of the habitats most immediately threatened as global temperatures rise during the course of this century," said Keya Chatterjee, acting director of the WWF-US climate change program. "To avert an ecological catastrophe on a much larger scale, we must sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for the impacts of climate change we failed to avoid."

The world's largest mangrove forest

The Sundarbans, a UNESCO World Heritage Site shared by India and Bangladesh at the mouth of the Ganges River, is the world's largest single block of mangrove forest. Mangroves are found at the inter-tidal region between land and sea, and not only serve as breeding grounds for fish but help protect coastal regions from natural disasters such as cyclones, storm surges and wind damage.

Providing the habitat for between 250 and 400 tigers, the Sundarbans is also home to more than 50 reptile species, 120 commercial fish species, 300 bird species and 45 mammal species. While their exact numbers are unclear, the tigers living in the Sundarbans of India and Bangladesh may represent as many as 10 percent of all the remaining wild tigers worldwide.

Using the rates of sea level rise projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (2007), the study's authors wrote that a 28 cm sea level rise may be realized around 2070, at which point tigers will be unlikely to survive in the Sundarbans. However, recent research suggests that the seas may rise even more swiftly than what was predicted in the 2007 IPCC assessment.

Tigers already threatened by poaching and habitat loss

In addition to climate change, the Sundarbans tigers, like other tiger populations around the world already face tremendous threats from poaching and habitat loss. Tiger ranges have decreased by 40 percent over the past decade, and tigers today occupy less than seven percent of their original range. Scientists fear that accelerating deforestation and rampant poaching could push some tiger populations to the same fate as their now-extinct Javan and Balinese relatives in other parts of Asia.

Tigers are poached for their highly prized skins and body parts, which are used in traditional Chinese medicine. The 2010 Year of the Tiger will mark an important year for conservation efforts to save wild tigers, with WWF continuing to play a vital role in implementing bold new strategies to save this magnificent Asian big cat.

Recommendations in the study include:

Locally, governments and natural resource managers should take immediate steps to conserve and expand mangroves while preventing poaching and retaliatory killing of tigers.

Regionally, neighboring countries should increase sediment delivery and freshwater flows to the coastal region to support agriculture and replenishment of the land;

Globally, governments should take stronger action to limit greenhouse gas emissions;

2010 is the 'Year of the Tiger', and a year for action to save this species
"It's disheartening to imagine that the Sundarbans - which means 'beautiful forest' in Bengali - could be gone this century, along with its tigers," Loucks said. "We very much hope that in this, the Year of the Tiger, the world will focus on curtailing the immediate threats to these magnificent creatures and preparing for the long-term impacts of climate change."

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Climate change could drown out Sundarbans tigers - study

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One of the world's largest tiger populations could disappear by the end of this century as rising sea levels caused by climate change destroy their habitat along the coast of Bangladesh in an area known as the Sundarbans, according to a new WWF-led study published in the journal Climatic Change.

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Only around 100 tigers remain in Bangladesh's famed Sundarbans forest, far fewer of the endangered animals than previously thought, according to a census.

Some 440 tigers were recorded during the previous census in 2004 in the Sundarbans, the world's largest mangrove forest and one of the last remaining habitats for the big cats.

But experts said better methodology was the reason for the huge drop in the numbers, saying hidden cameras used this time around, rather than pugmarks, gave a much more accurate figure.

Tapan Kumar Dey, the government's wildlife conservator, said analysis of camera footage from the year-long survey that ended in April found numbers ranged between 83 and 130, giving an average of 106.

"So plus or minus we have around 106 tigers in our parts of the Sundarbans. It's a more accurate figure," Dey told Agence France-Presse about the survey, which has not yet been publicly released.

About 74 tigers have previously been counted on the Indian side of the Sundarbans, which makes up nearly 40% of the forest straddling both countries over 10,000 sq km (3,860 sq m).

Bengal tigers live mainly in India, where nationwide there are 2,226, with smaller populations in Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, China and Myanmar.

Monirul Khan, a zoology professor at Bangladesh's Jahangirnagar University and the nation's foremost tiger expert, said the survey confirmed his worst fears.

"It seems the population has declined more than we had feared," Khan said, saying his studies showed the figure was no more than 200.

Khan said the government needed to do more to protect the animals, whose numbers were shrinking because of poaching and rapid development on the edge of the forest.

The World Wildlife Fund says tigers worldwide are in serious danger of becoming extinct in the wild. Their numbers have fallen from 100,000 in 1900 to around 3,200 now.

Officials have conceded that the pugmark tracking system used in 2004 was unreliable and cameras were installed in trees throughout the forest for the latest survey.

YV Jhala, professor at the Wildlife Institute of India, told AFP the new figure was the "reality".

"The 440 figure was a myth and an imagination. Bangladesh parts of the Sundarbans with its prey size can support up to 200 tigers," he said, also urging authorities to act to better protect the cats.

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Only 100 tigers left in Bangladesh's famed Sundarbans forest

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Only around 100 tigers remain in Bangladesh's famed Sundarbans forest, far fewer of the endangered animals than previously thought, according to a census. Some 440 tigers were recorded during the previous census in 2004 in the Sundarbans, the world's largest mangrove forest and one of the last remaining habitats for the big cats.

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Projects : Community Climate Change Project | The World Bank

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World Bank project Community Climate Change Project N/A

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Like Sharifa Begum, many poor families live on sandbars known as chars (shoals) that are spread across the vast Brahmaputra River in northern Bangladesh. Residents who live on these vast stretches of dry, sandy land usually make living from fishing and farming. Agriculture is difficult in the sholas because of the presence of sand and frequent inundation of water. During the dry season, they travel by walking and cycling. Electricity is scarce and wood is mostly used as cooking fuel. In early August, rivers like the Brahmaputra, Dharla and Teesta in the northwestern Bangladesh starts to over flow. Frequent floods devastate poor and marginalized communities, destroying their homes and precious assets, year after year.

Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in extreme rainfall coupled with the melting of the Himalayas will contribute to a greater frequency of riverine and flash floods. The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan has identified inland monsoon flooding and tropical cyclones accompanied with storm surges as two of the three major climate hazards for Bangladesh.

To address extreme inland monsoon flooding, the government of Bangladesh has undertaken Community Climate Change Project (CCCP) under the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF). The project aims to help communities adapt to extreme climate changes. CCCP has already helped around 15,000 households save their assets and livelihoods from floods. The project supported participating communities to raise household plinths and provide opportunities for better and secured livelihood.

The CCCP project empowers local organizations that can access remote areas where the most vulnerable communities live. On a competitive basis, the project provides grant financing to various NGOs to help communities build long-term resilience to climate change impacts. The project focuses on the three most vulnerable climate zones in Bangladesh, composed of: saline affected coastal zones, flood-affected areas and charlands, and drought-affected or rain-scarce areas in north-western Bangladesh. Such community-based adaptation to climate change is based on capturing lessons and sharing best practices among the 41 competitively selected NGOs, and beyond.

Many of the homes in the clusters are raised by five feet on average based on highest flood level of that area to protect the families from being inundated with water. The plinths are designed to offer benefits inclusive of growing vegetables, rearing poultry and providing shelter for domestic animals in addition to providing safe shelter for resident.

In its second year, the project has already made a difference in flood affected regions. The new shelters will continuously be improved with tube-wells, solar lighting, cooking stoves and latrine to be installed on the plinths in the near future.

Beneficiaries did not have to migrate to distant high ground for shelter this year like before. Their crops are also being protected by elevation. Pointing at the rice seedlings on one of the plinths, Rehana, a local resident said, "Last year, the flood destroyed the rice and potato that my husband planted on about half an acre of low land. We hope to recover by growing seedlings in a corner of this raised ground."

A simple solution like raising the plinths of their homesteads has saved many communities from recent floods. These examples, among others, demonstrate how CCCP grant financing is supporting local NGOs and communities to collaborate in finding adaptive solutions to tackle climate change impacts.

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Communities Find Solutions to Tackling Climate Change in Flood Hit Areas in Bangladesh

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Like Sharifa Begum, many poor families live on sandbars known as chars (shoals) that are spread across the vast Brahmaputra River in northern Bangladesh. Residents who live on these vast stretches of dry, sandy land usually make living from fishing and farming.

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Of all the countries in the world, Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The regular and severe natural hazards that already batter the country - tropical cyclones, river erosion, flood, landslides and drought - are all set to increase in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. Rising sea levels will increasingly inundate Bangladesh's coast, and dramatic coastal and river erosion will destroy land and homes. These and the many other adverse effects of climate change will have profound repercussions for the economy and development of the country.

One of the most dramatic impacts will be the forced movement of people throughout Bangladesh as a result of losing their homes, lands, property and livelihoods to the effects of climate change. While it is impossible to predict with complete accuracy how many people will be displaced by climate change, the best current estimates state that rising sea levels alone will displace 18 million Bangladeshis within the next 40 years. The vast majority of these people will be displaced domestically - not across international borders - presenting the government with enormous challenges, particularly when it comes to finding places to live and work for those who have been displaced.
Probal Rashid is a documentary photographer and photojournalist working in Bangladesh. He is represented by Zuma Press.

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Of all the countries in the world, Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The regular and severe natural hazards that already batter the country - tropical cyclones, river erosion, flood, landslides and drought - are all set to increase in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change.

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Core samples, tide gauge readings, and, most recently, satellite measurements tell us that over the past century, the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) has risen by 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). However, the annual rate of rise over the past 20 years has been 0.13 inches (3.2 millimeters) a year, roughly twice the average speed of the preceding 80 years.

Over the past century, the burning of fossil fuels and other human and natural activities has released enormous amounts of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. These emissions have caused the Earth's surface temperature to rise, and the oceans absorb about 80 percent of this additional heat.

The rise in sea levels is linked to three primary factors, all induced by this ongoing global climate change:

Thermal Expansion: When water heats up, it expands. About half of the past century's rise in sea level is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.

Melting Glaciers and Polar Ice Caps: Large ice formations, like glaciers and the polar ice caps, naturally melt back a bit each summer. In the winter, snows, primarily from evaporated seawater, are generally sufficient to balance out the melting. Recently, though, persistently higher temperatures caused by global warming have led to greater-than-average summer melting as well as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. This imbalance results in a significant net gain in the ratio of runoff to ocean evaporation, causing sea levels to rise.

Ice Loss from Greenland and West Antarctica: As with the glaciers and ice caps, increased heat is causing the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt at an accelerated pace. Scientists also believe meltwater from above and seawater from below is seeping beneath Greenland's and West Antarctica's ice sheets, effectively lubricating ice streams and causing them to move more quickly into the sea. Higher sea temperatures are causing the massive ice shelves that extend out from Antarctica to melt from below, weaken, and break off.

When sea levels rise rapidly, as they have been doing, even a small increase can have devastating effects on coastal habitats. As seawater reaches farther inland, it can cause destructive erosion, wetland flooding, aquifer and agricultural soil contamination, and lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants.

When large storms hit land, higher sea levels mean bigger, more powerful storm surges that can strip away everything in their path.

In addition, hundreds of millions of people live in areas that will become increasingly vulnerable to flooding. Higher sea levels would force them to abandon their homes and relocate. Low-lying islands could be submerged completely.

Most predictions say the warming of the planet will continue and is likely to accelerate. Oceans will likely continue to rise as well, but predicting the degree to which they will rise is an inexact science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise between 11 and 38 inches (28 to 98 centimeters) by 2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. More dire estimates, including a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, place sea level rise to 23 feet (7 meters), enough to submerge London.

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Core samples, tide gauge readings, and, most recently, satellite measurements tell us that over the past century, the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) has risen by 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). However, the annual rate of rise over the past 20 years has been 0.13 inches (3.2 millimeters) a year, roughly twice the average speed of the preceding 80 years.

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As our understanding of the role forests play in stabilising global climate increases, it is becoming clear that their destruction is only exacerbating climate change. If we're serious about tackling this, then preserving our remaining ancient forests has to be a priority.

Carbon storehouses

Mature forests store enormous quantities of carbon, both in the trees and vegetation itself and within the soil in the form of decaying plant matter. Forests in areas such as the Congo and the Amazon represent some of the world's largest carbon stores on land.

But when forests are logged or burnt, that carbon is released into the atmosphere, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and accelerating the rate of climate change. So much carbon is released that they contribute up to one-fifth of global man-made emissions, more than the world's entire transport sector.

Deforestation has such a massive effect on climate change that Indonesia and Brazil are now the third and fourth largest emitters of carbon dioxide on the planet. This dubious honour comes not from industrial or transport emissions, but from deforestation - up to 75 per cent of Brazil's emissions come solely from deforestation - with the majority coming from clearing and burning areas of the Amazon rainforest.

Stern words

The link between forests and climate change is now widely accepted. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, commissioned by the UK government and released in October 2006, was in no doubt about the impact forests have on our climate. "Action to preserve the remaining areas of natural forest is needed urgently," it said, and called for "large scale pilot schemes... to explore effective approaches to combining national action and international support".

The report also noted that preventing deforestation would be a relatively cheap method of tackling climate change, allowing forested countries to reduce their emissions by enormous amounts. These countries - such as Indonesia, Brazil and the Democratic Republic of Congo - should lead the way in developing policies to protect and manage their forests, but they also need help from other nations. Preserving forest areas benefits the entire planet and there is now a growing acceptance among the international community for financial incentives to leave forests standing. If that were to happen, forests could be worth more intact than if they were felled for timber or agriculture.

Climate change is the biggest problem facing our planet, and preserving our remaining forests is a key part of the solution. You can be a part of that solution too - find out what you can do to help save the remaining forests and stop climate change.

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Deforestation and climate change | Greenpeace UK

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As our understanding of the role forests play in stabilising global climate increases, it is becoming clear that their destruction is only exacerbating climate change. If we're serious about tackling this, then preserving our remaining ancient forests has to be a priority.

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After a century of decline, tiger numbers are on the rise. About 4,500 tigers remain in the wild, but much more work is needed to protect this species that’s still vulnerable to extinction.

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A mega-dam that became one of India's greatest environmental controversies during the three decades it was under construction has been formally declared complete by the prime minister, Narendra Modi.

Activists have warned that 40,000 families across hundreds of villages will lose their homes as a result of the construction of the final stage of the dam and are yet to be adequately compensated.

They said some lower-lying villages inside the "submerge zone" that were most vulnerable to rising water levelshad already started to flood in the week before the structure was officially inaugurated on Sunday.

At a ceremony in Gujarat, Modi said the Sardar Sarovar dam, the second largest in the world by volume of concrete used, had been completed despite a "massive misinformation campaign" by opponents.

He singled out the World Bank, which had offered a US$450m loan for the construction of the dam, but pulled out in 1993 after years of environmental protests - thought to be the first time the organisation backtracked on a funded project.

"World Bank or no World Bank, the people of this country had faith in us and it is due to their determination that this project has been completed," Modi said, adding that temples in Gujarat had donated money to help make up the shortfall left after the international fund reversed its loan.

The dam's reservoir is expected to provide drinking water, irrigation or hydroelectricity to Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, three states that regularly suffer drought.

The foundation stone for the 1.2km-long infrastructure was laid by India's first prime minister in 1961, but formal construction did not begin for another 26 years and was frequently interrupted.

Campaigns led by a grassroots opposition group, Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA), succeeded in pressuring the World Bank to order a review of its funding for the project in 1992. The review found shortcomings in the estimated environmental and social impact of the project and concluded it could proceed only by "unacceptable means".

In response to an NBA lawsuit in 1996, the Indian supreme court halted construction on the dam. It granted permission to restart building four years later with stricter requirements to rehabilitate affected communities.

Medha Patkar, a spokeswoman for NBA, said shops and markets in some villages in Madhya Pradesh had already started to become submerged since water levels rose in the area in the past week. "The water has already reached inside some of the hamlets with 3,000 families," she said.

She said rain in the past week and water releases from further upstream had already begun to cut off bridges into lower-lying land. Police were also beginning to cordon off roads in the threatened areas. "One by one they are going to cut off these villages," Patkar said.

The government says the number of affected families is much lower - about 18,000 - and that those most at threat from rising waters were being helped to relocate.

However, Patkar said many of those moved had been shifted to "temporary tin sheds that cannot even accommodate one single farmer's household ... How can they declare the project is complete when rehabilitation [of communities] is not complete? A dam is not just a concrete wall."

Many of those affected are Adivasis, or Tribals, one of India's poorest communities that has borne the brunt of the country's large-scale development projects.

Patkar said the focus of the movement against the dam would shift to campaigning for adequate compensation for the displaced. "The government is obligated by the supreme court to fulfil all social and environmental conditions," she said. "They can't just dedicate it to the nation and say it is complete."

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Indian PM inaugurates Sardar Sarovar dam in face of activist anger

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A mega-dam that became one of India's greatest environmental controversies during the three decades it was under construction has been formally declared complete by the prime minister, Narendra Modi. Activists have warned that 40,000 families across hundreds of villages will lose their homes as a result of the construction of the final stage of the dam and are yet to be adequately compensated.

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All electricity in Chile should come from renewable energy by 2040, a leading candidate in the country's presidential elections has said.

Sebastian Piñera, of the centre-right National Renewal party, was president between 2010 and 2014 and is currently ahead in the polls.

Chile currently has to import large amounts of fossil fuels because it has virtually no deposits of its own.

However the country is prime territory for wind and solar power plants because of its long coastline and desert climate.

Speaking at a campaign rally, Mr Piñera outlined ambitious plans to decarbonise power generation and public transport.

"The goal is that by 2040, Chile has a 100 per cent clean and renewable electricity grid and a 100 per cent electric public transit system," he said, according to Reuters.

A poll this month put Mr Piñera on 34 per cent of the vote, compared to 16 per cent for centre-left candidate Alejandro Guillier and 15 per cent for Beatriz Sanchez, of the hard-left Frente Amplio group.

Ms Sanchez and Mr Guillier have both spoken in favour of increasing renewable energy without actually giving a target date for the creation of a zero-carbon electricity grid, Reuters reported.

Earlier this year Mr Guillier said he wanted public transport to run on electricity and that he would support renewable energy generation.

The metropolitan railway in Santiago, the capital, was the first in the world to run almost entirely on solar power.

Reuse content

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Chile to have 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2040, vows leading presidential candidate

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All electricity in Chile should come from renewable energy by 2040, a leading candidate in the country's presidential elections has said. Sebastian Piñera, of the centre-right National Renewal party, was president between 2010 and 2014 and is currently ahead in the polls.

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Our climate is changing, both naturally and due to human exploitation. There is already undeniable evidence that animals, birds and plants are being affected by climate change and global warming in both their distribution and behavior. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are severely reduced, climate change could cause a quarter of land animals, birdlife and plants to become extinct.

Climate variability and change affects birdlife and animals in a number of ways; birds lay eggs earlier in the year than usual, plants bloom earlier and mammals are come out of hibernation sooner. Distribution of animals is also affected; with many species moving closer to the poles as a response to the rise in global temperatures. Birds are migrating and arriving at their nesting grounds earlier, and the nesting grounds that they are moving to are not as far away as they used to be and in some countries the birds don't even leave anymore, as the climate is suitable all year round.

A sea level rise of only 50cm could cause sea turtles to lose their nesting beaches - over 30% of Caribbean beaches are used by turtles during the nesting season and would be affected. The already endangered Mediterranean Monk Seals need beaches upon which to raise their pups and a rise in sea level could there could damage shallow coastal areas used annually by whales and dolphins which need shallow, gentle waters in order to rear there small calves.

Humans have already destroyed many of the natural migrations of animals.

The migratory journeys of Wildebeest in several African countries are stopped by fences. Changing rainfall patterns are causing dams to be erected in some areas of our planet, not taking into account the migratory fish and mammals that annually migrate up river to breed and spawn and water birds which rely on wetland sites for migration are at threat from rising sea levels caused by human effects. On the other side of the coin, the atmosphere is sucking moisture from the land at a greater rate than ever before causing severe droughts in many countries which are now facing reduced crop production and major drinking water shortages.

Although it is thought that no species has yet become extinct exclusively because of climate change, many migratory and non-migratory species are expected to become extinct in the near future.

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Our climate is changing, both naturally and due to human exploitation. There is already undeniable evidence that animals, birds and plants are being affected by climate change and global warming in both their distribution and behavior. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are severely reduced, climate change could cause a quarter of land animals, birdlife and plants to become extinct.

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WASHINGTON, DC, January 20, 2010 - One of the world's largest tiger populations could disappear by the end of this century as rising sea levels caused by climate change destroy their habitat along the coast of Bangladesh in an area known as the Sundarbans, according to a new World Wildlife Fund-led study published in the journal Climatic Change.

Tigers are among the world's most threatened species, with only an estimated 3,200 remaining in the wild. WWF officials said the threats facing these Royal Bengal tigers and other iconic species around the world highlight the need for urgent international action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

"If we don't take steps to address the impacts of climate change on the Sundarbans, the only way its tigers will survive this century is with scuba gear," said Colby Loucks, WWF's deputy director of conservation science and the lead author of the study Sea Level Rise and Tigers: Predicted Impacts to Bangladesh's Sundarbans Mangroves. "Tigers are a highly adaptable species, thriving from the snowy forests of Russia to the tropical forests of Indonesia. The projected sea level rise in the Sundarbans will likely outpace the tiger's ability to adapt."

According to the study, an expected sea level rise of 11 inches above 2000 levels may cause the remaining tiger habitat in the Sundarbans to decline by 96 percent, pushing the total population to fewer than 20 breeding tigers. Unless immediate action is taken, the Sundarbans, its wildlife and the natural resources that sustain millions of people may disappear within 50 to 90 years, the study said.

"The mangrove forest of the Bengal tiger now joins the sea-ice of the polar bear as one of the habitats most immediately threatened as global temperatures rise during the course of this century," said Keya Chatterjee, acting director of WWF's climate change program. "To avert an ecological catastrophe on a much larger scale, we must sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for the impacts of climate change we fail to avoid. In 2010, the Chinese Year of the Tiger, there is no better time for the US to pass domestic climate legislation and to reach an effective international agreement."

The Sundarbans, a UNESCO World Heritage Site shared by India and Bangladesh at the mouth of the Ganges River, is the world's largest single block of mangrove forest. Mangroves are found at the inter-tidal region between land and sea, and not only serve as breeding grounds for fish but help protect coastal regions from natural disasters such as cyclones, storm surges and wind damage.

Providing the habitat for between 250 and 400 tigers, the Sundarbans is also home to more than 50 reptile species, 120 commercial fish species, 300 bird species and 45 mammal species. While their exact numbers are unclear, the tigers living in the Sundarbans of India and Bangladesh may represent as many as 10 percent of all the remaining wild tigers on Earth.

Using the rates of sea level rise projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment Report (2007), the study authors said an 11-inch sea level rise may be realized around 2070, at which point tigers will be unlikely to survive in the Sundarbans. However, recent research suggests that the seas may rise even more swiftly than what was predicted in the 2007 IPCC assessment.

In addition to climate change, the Sundarbans tigers, like other tiger populations around the world already face tremendous threats from poaching and habitat loss. Tiger ranges have decreased by 40 percent over the past decade, and tigers today occupy less than seven percent of their original range. Scientists fear that accelerating deforestation and rampant poaching could push some tiger populations to the same fate as their now-extinct Javan and Balinese relatives in other parts of Asia. Tigers are poached for their highly prized skins and body parts, which are used in traditional Chinese medicine. The 2010 Year of the Tiger will mark an important year for conservation efforts to save wild tigers, with WWF continuing to play a vital role in implementing bold new strategies to save this magnificent Asian big cat.

Recommendations in the study include:

Locally, governments and natural resource managers should take immediate steps to conserve and expand mangroves while preventing poaching and retaliatory killing of tigers.

Regionally, neighboring countries should increase sediment delivery and freshwater flows to the coastal region to support agriculture and replenishment of the land;

Globally, governments should take stronger action to limit greenhouse gas emissions;

"It's disheartening to imagine that the Sundarbans - which means 'beautiful forest' in Bengali - could be gone this century, along with its tigers," Loucks said. "We very much hope that in this, the Year of the Tiger, the world will focus on curtailing the immediate threats to these magnificent creatures and preparing for the long-term impacts of climate change."
Learn more:
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Editors Notes:

1. Photos and video of tigers, and maps showing the projections of sea level rise in the Sundarbans are available upon request.

2. The article appears in the journal Climatic Change, an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climate change. The authors of the article are:

Colby Loucks and Shannon Barber-Meyer, World Wildlife Fund-US

Md. Abdullah Abraham Hossain, Bana Bhaban Forest Department, Bangladesh and the Institute for Environment and Development at Universiti Kebangsaan, Malaysia

Adam Barlow, Zoological Society of London

Ruhul Mohaiman, The World Fish Center, Bangladesh

4. Previous analyses of the impact of sea level rise on the Sundarbans have used relatively coarse data. Loucks and his colleagues used a new high resolution digital elevation model with eight estimates of sea level rise to predict the impact on tiger habitat and population size in the Bangladeshi Sundarbans. By importing over 80,000 Global Positioning System (GPS) elevation points they were able to come up with the most accurate predictions to date of the loss of tiger habitat due to sea level rise.

5. World Wildlife Fund is running a Year of the Tiger campaign to coincide with the Chinese New Year and culminating in a Global Tiger Summit in Vladivostok, Russia. Find out more at: www.worldwildlife.org/tigers

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Climate Change Threatens to Wipe Out One of World's Largest Tiger Populations this Century | Press Releases | WWF

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One of the world's largest tiger populations could disappear by the end of this century as rising sea levels caused by climate change destroy their habitat along the coast of Bangladesh in an area known as the Sundarbans, according to a new World Wildlife Fund-led study published in the journal Climatic Change.

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Mosquitoes capable of spreading serious and potentially deadly diseases such as Zika, dengue and yellow fever could invade about three-quarters of mainland United States, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have warned.

The CDC, a US federal agency, has previously warned that climate change could affect human health in many ways including increasing the number of "disease carriers such as mosquitoes and ticks".

In a paper published in the Journal of Medical Entomology, it revealed maps showing areas where the habitat was suitable for two particular species of mosquito, Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus to survive.

A study found 71 per cent of counties in the 48 contiguous states were suitable for aegypti and 75 per cent could support albopictus.

The paper said the dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses in particular represented a "growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established".

"We anticipate that Aedes aegypti and albopictus will be found more commonly in counties classified as suitable," it said.

"Counties predicted suitable with 90 per cent sensitivity should therefore be a top priority for expanded mosquito surveillance efforts while still keeping in mind that Aedes aegypti and albopictus may be introduced, via accidental transport of eggs or immatures, and potentially proliferate during the warmest part of the year."

Dr Rebecca Eisen, a research biologist with the CDC, said the maps showed the CDC's "best estimate" of the insects potential range.

"In other words, these maps show areas where CDC predicts Aedes aegypti and albopictus mosquitoes could survive and reproduce if introduced to an area during the months when mosquitoes are locally active," she said.

However the experts stressed the maps did not show where mosquitos were currently or the place where there was a risk of virus transmission.

Temperature was a key factor.

If there was just one day in winter when the temperature exceeded 10 degrees Celsius (50F), the chances that the area would be suitable for mosquitoes increased.

Consistently cold temperatures, however, reduced the chances that the insects' eggs would survive the winter, particularly for aegypti, Dr Eisen said.

Rainfall had a significant influence on albopictus as it relies more on water courses filled by rainwater to lay its eggs than aegypti.

Dr Eisen said the maps would help monitor for signs the mosquitoes.

"Surveillance efforts can be focused in counties where Aedes aegypti and albopictus could survive and reproduce if introduced to an area during the months when mosquitoes are locally active or at least survive during summer months if introduced," Dr Eisen said.

"Additionally, the maps can help healthcare providers and the public understand where these types of mosquitoes could be found so that they can take steps to protect against mosquito bites and possible infection."

The CDC has produced advice on how to avoid being bitten by mosquitoes and potentially catching one of the diseases they spread.

Their suggestions include wearing long-sleeved shirts and trousers, staying in places with air conditioning or that use window and door screens, using insect repellents approved by the Environmental Protection Agency, treating clothing with an insecticide, permethrin.

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Mosquitoes carrying deadly diseases could invade 75 per cent of America, warns US government

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Mosquitoes capable of spreading serious and potentially deadly diseases such as Zika, dengue and yellow fever could invade about three-quarters of mainland United States, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have warned. The CDC, a US federal agency, has previously warned that climate change could affect human health in many ways including increasing the number of "disease carriers such as mosquitoes and ticks".