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Members :
Celeste Low Yu Tong S10196177
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In this article, it has shown that China's unemployment rate has increased by 0.2% in July. This has been the highest unemployment rate of year so far, previously recorded in February, a month when many workers look for new employment. This is due to an increase in number of fresh graduates which can be proven from the statistics shown in the article. This is also known as frictional unemployment.

Frictional unemployment naturally occurs even in a growing, stable economy. Workers leaving their jobs or new workers entering the workforce both add to frictional unemployment. It is also the normal time taken for fresh graduates and people who are new to the job market to find a job. However, they will not take too long to find a new job as long as the job market is stable and growing. Recent graduates from school or first-time job seekers may lack the resources or efficiency for finding the company that has the job that is available and suitable for them. As a result, they don't take other work, temporarily holding out for the better-paying job.
Temporary transitions such as moving to another town or city will also add to frictional unemployment since there is often a gap in time between when the workers quit their job and find a new one. These workers don't have another job lined up before quitting their current job.

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China's urban unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points last month to stand at 5.3 percent at the end of July, according to a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) bulletin issued today.

This equalled the highest unemployment rate of year so far, previously recorded in February, a month when many workers look for new employment. See table below.

A spokesperson for the NBS attributed the most recent jump in unemployment primarily to the large number of college graduates entering the job market over the summer. The total number of graduates this year was a record 8.3 million.

The NBS spokesperson pointed out that the unemployment rate for 25-59-year-olds remained constant at 4.6 percent, which she said indicated that the overall employment market was still relatively stable. It also suggests that the rate of youth unemployment is much higher than 5.3 percent but no exact figures were released by the NBS.

The NBS figures are based on monthly surveys of urban workers, including rural migrant workers, and are supposed to be in line with International Labour Organization survey standards. However, rural unemployment is not included and importantly neither are people in short-term or precarious employment who make up an increasingly large proportion of the urban working population.

Most low-paid workers who are laid off (often with no compensation and owed wages in arrears) have to find another job as quickly as possible because they have few savings and bills to pay. However, many of the jobs that are available to laid off workers, particularly in the urban service sector, will be just as low-paid and insecure as their previous employment.

Laid off workers will still stage collective protests in a bid to defend their rights and protect their livelihood but these protests tend to be short-lived. The main purpose is to bring public attention to their grievances in the hope that the local government or even the trade union will intervene on their behalf.

It is increasing rare to see the large, longer-term strikes and protests that were a feature of the mid-2010s.

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China's unemployment rate jumps in July as graduates enter the job market

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China's urban unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points last month to stand at 5.3 percent at the end of July, according to a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) bulletin issued today. This equalled the highest unemployment rate of year so far, previously recorded in February, a month when many workers look for new employment.

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In this article, it is stating about how China has been experiencing slow GDP growth over the year 2019.
GDP is an important indicator of economic performance and it forms the basis of government economic policies. It is the most widely reported measure throughout the world of a nations economic performance.

It is said that China is experiencing its lowest GDP gain in at least 27 and a half years, which is 6% in the third quarter from a year earlier.
China's GDP has already started to fall since the first quarter of 2018 due to credit tightening and the country’s trade dispute with the U.S.
With the trade talks and conflicts with U.S.,  it is likely expected that China will still continue to have slow economy growth.

This is because with those tariffs, of 15%, apply to about $112 billion worth of Chinese goods, it will require China to fork out more money to pay for the tariff.
If they fail to do so, there will be lesser imports and exports of goods to China, causing economy to decline and slower GDP gain.

However, it is mentioned that China Domestic market has caused a bigger issue rather than external tariff battles.

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China said Friday its economy grew by 6% in the third quarter from a year earlier. It's believed to be China's slowest GDP gain in at least 27½ years.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected China's gross national product to grow 6.1% from the third quarter of 2018.

In the second quarter of 2019, China's statistics bureau said the economy grew 6.2% from a year earlier, as the country's trade war with the U.S. took its toll.

China's GDP has fallen sharply since the first quarter of 2018, when it gained 6.8% due to credit tightening and the country's trade dispute with the U.S., said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for the Asia and Oceania Treasury Department at Mizuho Bank.

"There is no doubt that the downturn is serious," Varathan added in a note sent Friday before China released the GDP report.

Economists are pessimistic about the immediate outlook for China even though there were some bright spots in the September data released on Friday, with retail sales up 7.8% from a year ago and industrial output rising 5.8%. Fixed asset investment rose 5.4% from January to September.

"Despite a stronger September, pressure on economic activity should intensify in the coming months," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.

"Cooling global demand will continue to weigh on exports, fiscal constraints mean that infrastructure spending will wane in the near-term and the recent boom in property construction looks set to unwind," he added in a note.

China's growth is likely to continue to slow in the next two quarters, said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard.

That comes as real output growth in services has slowed aggressively in the last few months, Zhuang told CNBC's "Street Signs."

Zhuang expects China's growth to slow to 5.8% in the fourth quarter, with the country's full-year growth target to be 6.1%.

"Given the trade talks and the conflict with the U.S., Chinese authorities are accepting lower growth rate," said Zhuang.

Although Beijing's official GDP figures are tracked as an indicator of the health of the world's second-largest economy, many outside experts have long expressed skepticism about the veracity of China's reports.

Recent data out of China has not been upbeat and analysts including Evans-Pritchard and Zhuang expect economic stimulus measures to be rolled out soon.

China's import and export data for September came in worse than expected amid the country's trade friction with the U.S.

The two economic giants have been embroiled in a trade war for more than a year, with each country applying tariffs on billions of dollars worth of goods from the other.

The latest round of trade talks between the world's two largest economies ended late last week in Washington. After the meeting, the U.S. said it would suspend a tariff increase on Chinese goods that were supposed to have taken effect on Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump said China agreed to a "very substantial phase one deal" that will be written over the next three weeks. Trump also said the deal would address intellectual property and financial services concerns, as well as Chinese purchases of about $40 billion to $50 billion U.S. agricultural products.
- CNBC's Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report. Correction: An earlier version misstated when analyst Varathan's note was sent. It was Friday.

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China says its economy grew 6% in the third quarter, slower than expected

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China said Friday its economy grew by 6% in the third quarter from a year earlier. It's believed to be China's slowest GDP gain in at least 27½ years. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected China's gross national product to grow 6.1% from the third quarter of 2018.

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In this article, it is mentioned that China's Consumer Price Index(CPI) in October 2019 rose 3.8 per cent year on year, the most since January 2012.

The main cause to this is the rapid increase of pork prices as the African swine fever killed a huge population of pigs.
The amount of pork supply decreased, yet the demand for the amount of pork remains the same thus leading to cost push inflation whereby sellers raise their goods price to counter the insufficient supply of goods.

Analysts from Nomura said that there is an elevated risk of a wage-price spiral amid surging pork prices and the spillover effects to other food prices. As prices of goods and services increase, wages also increases. This is to help deal the situation of inflation and the cycle continues. The Spillover Effects may include China's Economy decreasing as many companies face inflation, causing prices to increase, and since most of these companies are from other countries and expanded their infrastructure to China, China is only gaining a portion of the profits made from these companies causing them their economic growth to decline, especially if the government chooses to intervene and help their citizens, which would mean that China's economy will suffer even more.

In addition to this, it also affected the accuracy of measuring the changes in the cost of living by calculating CPI.
As the price of pork is included in the calculation of CPI, it resulted in the increase of CPI.

This would overstate inflation as the prices for pork are only increasing for the time being till the African swine fever situation improve.
The price of pork should then decrease back to around its original price.

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BEIJING * China's producer prices fell the most in more than three years last month, as the manufacturing sector weakened on declining demand and a knock from the Sino-US tariff war, reinforcing the case for Beijing to keep the stimulus coming.

The producer price index (PPI), seen as a key indicator of corporate profitability, fell 1.6 per cent from the same month last year, marking the steepest decline since July 2016, National Bureau of Statistics data showed yesterday.

Analysts had predicted a contraction of 1.5 per cent for the PPI.

In contrast, China's consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in almost eight years, driven mostly by a surge in pork prices as African swine fever ravaged the country's hog herds.

Some analysts say the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) could become a concern for policymakers looking to introduce measures to prop up demand.

However, core inflation - which excludes food and energy prices - pressures remain modest.

The factory deflation aligns with other indicators showing shrinking manufacturing activity last month, with the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating contraction for a sixth straight month.

While Washington and Beijing work on finalising the first part of a phased trade agreement, many analysts are wary of the potential back and forth after the sudden collapse of earlier talks in May.

Chinese manufacturers, meanwhile, are expected to face continued pressure from existing tariffs.

More United States tariffs against China are set to take effect on Dec 15, although officials from both countries said last week they have agreed to roll back tariffs on each other's goods if a "Phase 1" trade deal is completed.

Last Friday, though, American President Donald Trump said he has not agreed to the rollbacks sought by the Chinese.

The more-than-year-long trade war has cost China US$35 billion (S$47.3 billion) as the United States has cut down on Chinese imports, driving up prices for American consumers, according to a United Nations study published last Tuesday.

China, for the first time since 2016, cut the interest rate in its one-year medium lending facility loans. The Chinese authorities, though, have been relatively restrained in providing stimulus measures and the cut was by only five basis points.

But surging consumer inflation is adding to the headaches of policymakers, who are racing against the calendar to meet Beijing's annual growth target as the world's second largest economy slows to the lower end of a 6 per cent to 6.5 per cent range for this year.

Last month's CPI rose 3.8 per cent year on year, the most since January 2012, and beat analysts' forecasts of a 3.3 per cent hike.

The rise was driven largely by a steep climb in pork prices and other meats after African swine fever killed a large portion of China's pigs. Pork prices more than doubled year on year last month, according to the statistics bureau.

"Although we expect the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to maintain its easing policy stance, we believe there is elevated risk of a wage-price spiral amid surging pork prices and the spillover effects to other food prices," analysts at Nomura wrote in a note on Nov 1.

"Thus the PBOC could potentially become more reluctant to deliver high-profile policy stimulus in coming quarters to avoid fuelling inflation expectations," the analysts said.

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China factory prices falter; inflation nears 8-year high

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BEIJING * China's producer prices fell the most in more than three years last month, as the manufacturing sector weakened on declining demand and a knock from the Sino-US tariff war, reinforcing the case for Beijing to keep the stimulus coming.. Read more at straitstimes.com.

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Hello Team,
You only have two economic concepts. Perhaps unemployment could be the third for you to analyse.

Articles OK, prelim analysis room for improvement.

Please include full names and IDs of all your team members on this wall before printing out for submission. Your tutorial group too.

Please refer to my questions/feedback below. These are also meant for you to explore in your report writing. So wait no further.

Print out the finalised version of your padlet (pls keep my comments) and submit to me by the deadline (pigeon hole at Blk 72, level 9 or pass it to me in class) and time to kick start your report writing!

Questions to ponder:
GDP (Article 1 & 2)
1. How important is USA to China's trade revenue?
2. How important is China's external market to its real GDP?
3. Is China's domestic market doing well? (Can infer from the chosen article also.)
4. Use the expenditure approach of GDP to study some of the mentioned components.

Inflation
It is not demand-pull inflation when you talk about shortage in supply causing an increase in prices. Check again.

Analyse this statement too " wage-price spiral amid surging pork prices and the spillover effects to other food prices,"