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Regional Climate Systems

Program Manager:  Dr. Gemma Narisma

RCS currently has a good composition of full time senior researchers (including a postdoctoral scientist), full time research assistants, graduate students (MS in Atmospheric Science) and undergraduate students (of the Physics Department of Ateneo de Manila University). All of the researchers are involved in atmospheric science research, most are involved in running climate system models and are involved in data processing and analysis. All are involved in the program’s core research as mentioned in the goals and direction matrix. Except for the students, researchers are funded by existing projects.

Personnel

1. Gemma Teresa T. Narisma, PhD

Program head; Faculty, Physics Department

Ateneo de Manila University

2. Faye Abigail Cruz, PhD

Research Associate (post doc).

3. Khervin Cheng Chua

Research Associate, MS in Meteorology

4. Julie Mae Dado

Graduate Assistant, MS Atmospheric Science Student

5. Carlo Jamandre

Ateneo Physics Graduate Assistant

MS Atmospheric Science student

6. Emilio Gozo

Research Assistant, BS Physics

7. Patricia Bonife

3rd year BS Physics-ACS

Ateneo de Manila University

8. Sammy Chua

3rd year BS Physics-ACS

Ateneo de Manila University

External researchers working with RCS on projects:

1. Monica Ortiz, Summer intern

Worked on Agriculture and Climate Change. She is continuing her work on the

vulnerability of bananas to the impacts of climate change.

Projects

“CI:Grasp Study of Patterns of Vulnerability in the Forestry, Agriculture, Water Sectors and the Coastal Zones in Leyte Island, Philippines", GIZ and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), funded by the German Federal Ministry for Environmental Protection, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)., Mar 2010 - Jan 2011.

"Albay Sustainable Development Guidebook", a collaborative project between the Manila Observatory, Albay Provincial Government, Chevron Geothermal Philippines Inc, and funded by the Chevron Geothermal Philippines Inc, Jan 2010 - Jun 2011.

“An Integrated Risk Assessment of the Effects of Tropical Cyclones in Metro Manila:  Tropical Storm Ondoy and Future Applications in Urban Resilience”, funded by Christian Aid-UK, 01 January 2011- 31 March 2012.

“Country Scoping Studies to Build Evidence on Children’s Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Disaster Impacts -- How are Children Likely to be Impacted by Climate Change and What Role Can Children and Development Partners Play in Strengthening Children’s Adaptive Capacity?”, funded by UNICEF, 2011.

Developing Agro-Ecological Zones in the project “Creating an ecology-based spatial framework for an alternative HDI analysis”, for the “Study for the 7th Philippine Human Development Report, Human Development Network.

Modeling extreme storm events and the effects of land use change especially urbanization on rainfall associated with tropical cyclones

The impact of climate change and variability on Philippine agriculture, especially rice production

Renewable energy potentials, especially wind and solar, in light of future climate change variability

Data assimilation in regional climate models for better (extreme) weather forecasting and climate projections

The climatic impacts of land cover and land use change in the Philippines, preliminary results to be presented in the 8th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society.

The spatio-temporal validation of satellite-based rainfall data in the Philippines and its applicability for forecasting extreme rainfall events, preliminary results to be presented in the 8th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society

The Potential Impact of Global Warming on Southwest Monsoon Rainfall in the Philippines, preliminary results to be presented in the 8th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society

The ability of Regional Climate Model 3 to capture extreme temperature and rainfall changes, poster presentation of preliminary results in the “International Conference on the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX”

Workshops / Presentations / Training / Journals

The program held a work climate modeling workshop in Xavier University on 27-28 April, 2011. The goal of the workshop was to help build the capacity of XU for regional climate modeling. RCS installed regional climate models in 4 high performance computers of XU. Key people (physics, computer science, engineering faculty) were then trained for two days on running the regional climate models. Potential areas of support and collaboration were also explored.

“Modeling the Effects of Changing Agricultural Land to Forests in the Philippines”, Dado, Cruz, and Narisma, Oral Presentation, 8th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 08 to 12 August 2011, Taiwan.

“Spatio-Temporal Validation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Data in the Philippines”, Jamandre and Narisma, Oral Presentation, 8th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 08 to 12 August 2011, Taiwan.

“The Potential Impact of Global Warming on Southwest Monsoon Rainfall in the Philippines”, Villafuerte and Narisma, Oral Presentation, 8th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 08 to 12 August 2011, Taiwan.

“Evaluation of Simulated Extremes in the Philippines”, Cruz, Narisma, Dado, and Villafuerte, Poster presentation, “International Conference on the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX”, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, 21-26 March 2011.

Publications

The program aims to submit three (3) papers for publication in a peer-reviewed

international journal for 2011.

C. A. Jamandre, G. T. Narisma, 2011: Spatio-temporal validation of satellite based rainfall estimates in the Philippines, Minor revisions

M. Q. Villafuerte II, F. T. Cruz, G. T. Narisma, 2011: A climatological analysis of the southwest monsoon rainfall in the Philippines, Submitted to Atmospheric Research, Major revisions

Research papers and studies completed or expected date of completion:

Dado J.B., R.D. Mero, F.T. Cruz, and G.T. Narisma, The potential impacts of urban

expansion on the Philippine southwest monsoon rainfall: Expected date of

manuscript  submission to an international journal, January 2012.

Gozo, E. and G.T. Narisma, Urbanization and its effects on flooding in the Urban

Metro Manila Watershed, expected date of completion June 2012.

Cruz, F.T. and G.T. Narisma, The effect of urbanization on tropical cyclone rainfall: Case study Tropical Storm Ketsana, expected date of completion June 2012.

Dado J.B., F.T. Cruz, and G.T. Narisma, The relative impacts of deforestation and

global climate change in the Philippines, expected date of completion December

2012.

Jamandre C., and G.T. Narisma, Performance evaluation of regional climate models with satellite observation data assimilation, expected date of completion

December 2012.

The program is contributing to two (2) upcoming report publications on:

“Patterns of vulnerability in the Forest, Water, Agriculture and Coastal Sectors of Silago, Leyte, Philippines”, with the World Agroforestry Centre, and funded by GIZ, to be published by 30 June 2011.

“Albay Sustainable Development Guidebook”, funded by Chevron Geothermal Philippine Holdings, Inc, to be published by 01 August 2011.

Source: Manila Observatory Annual Report

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Regional Climate Systems

Program Manager:  Dr. Emmanuel Anglo

The following activities were implemented:

1. Rainfall Atlas

2. Comparison of RegCM3 and MM5 models in simulating total monthly rainfall for June 2000 and June 2001 [February to May 2005]

3. Publication of Scientific Report No. 13 entitled “Simulation of Luzon Rainfall with the MM5 and the RegCM3 models: A Comparative Study [May 2005]

4. Papers presented at the IAMAS Conference, Beijing [August 2005]: A.R.C. Remedio and M.A. Estoque.

5. Simulation of Luzon Rainfall with the MM5 and the RegCM3 models: A Comparative Study

6. M.A. Estoque and A.R.C. Remedio. Simulatoin of Monthly Rainfall Climatology with the MM5 Model

1. Transboundary Air Transport Research

2. Literature survey on transboundary air transport studies [November 2004 to January 2005]

3. Preliminary simulation on transboundary air transport using RegCM3 for the month of June 1999 for the Philippines and Southeast Asia [January 2005]

4. Simulation on transboundary air transport using RegCM3 during the northeast monsoon (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 1997 for the Philippines and Southeast Asia [February to May 2005]

5. Analysis and paper writing for the simulation on transboundary air transport using RegCM3 during the northeast monsoon (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 1997 for the Philippines and Southeast Asia [Aug to Oct]

6. Creation of database of experts on Transboundary research [August-September 2005]

1. Artificial Neural Network Studies

2. Development and testing of Self-Organizing Feature Maps (SOFM) for clustering of rainfall patterns [May-July 2005]

1. El Nino Studies

2. Analysis of rainfall patterns to determine drought episodes related to El Nino events [February, July 2005]

3. Paper presented at the IAMAS Conference, Beijing [August 2005]: F. B. Avila, E.R. Castillo, and J.T. Villarin SJ. Precipitation anomalies in the Philippines associated with El Nino events

4. Paper presented at the First National Meteorological-Hydrological Convention of the Philippine Meteorological Society, PAGASA Main Building, Science Garden, Quezon City [December 2005]: E.G. Anglo. Decadal Changes in ENSO-Related Anomalies in Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

1. Urban Modification Studies

2. Documentation of the project “Urban Modification of the Climate of Metro Manila” [May 2005]

3. Paper presented at the IAMAS Conference, Beijing [August 2005]: F. A. Cruz and J. T. Villarin. Urban Modification of the Climate of Metro Manila, Philippines

1. Typhoon and Regional Weather Forecasting

2. Analysis of precipitation related to tropical cyclone events [April to July 2005]

3. Paper presented at the IAMAS Conference, Beijing [August 2005]: F. B. Avila, F. A. Cruz, A. R. C. Remedio, J. T. Villarin SJ and E. G. Anglo. Forecasting tropical cyclone precipitation in the Philippines using MM5

4. Preparation and publication of Scientific Report No. 15 [August]:  A.R.C. Remedio, R.N. Choy, J. T. Villarin and E. G. Anglo.

5. Forecasting Philippine tropical cyclone tracks and associated precipitation using MM5: a sensitivity study

6. Paper presented at the Okinawa Typhoon Center Forum, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan [October 2005]: E. G. Anglo.

7. Decadal Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western Pacific Analysis of the track of Cyclones

Source: Manila Observatory Annual Report

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The Regional Climate Systems (RCS) program aims to understand the local or fine-scale features of Philippine climate in order to: assess the viability of renewable, climate-based resources for sustainable energy and agriculture; and detect past and future changes that might endanger the survival of local ecosystems and communities.

By diagnosing the physical and local impacts of global climate change and variability, the program aims to provide adequate scientific guidance to disaster mitigation, renewable energy planning, and adaptation policy development.  The program focuses on the application of climate modeling and analytical tools to diagnose and forecast the spatio-temporal variations of Philippine climate.

Current projects under this program include:

Philippine climate atlas Rainfall, wind, and solar profiles generated by climate dynamical downscaling through application of MM5, RAMS, and REGCM models

Statistical downscaling via artificial neural networks and multivariate analysis

Philippine climate diagnostics

Local climate change and variability assessment

High resolution climate clustering

Climate monitoring and analysis”

Activities/Events:

Presented a paper entitled “Forecasting Typhoon Tracks Using MM5” presented at the 22nd Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physcis Congress held at the Bohol Tropics Resort in Tagbilaran City, Bohol, on 26 October 2004.

Presented the paper “A Rainfall Climatology of Luzon Using the MM5 Atmospheric Model”, 22nd Samahang Pisika ng Pilipinas Physcis Congress held at the Bohol Tropics Resort in Tagbilaran City, Bohol, on 26 October 2004.

Publications:

Publication of the article entitled, “The Effect of Prevailing Winds on Pollution Patterns in Lingayen Gulf” in the Loyola Schools Review (LSR) [Feb. 2004]

Acceptance of the article entitled, “Diurnal Variations of the NO2 Concentrations at the Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Metro Manila” in the Loyola Schools Review (LSR) [May to Nov. 2004]

Publication of the article entitled, “Predictability of Droughts and Floods Due to El Nino and La Nina Episodes” in Science Diliman [March 2004]

Publication of Scientific Report No. 12 entitled “Simulation of Monthly Rainfall Climatology with the MM5 model” [Dec. 2004]

Source: Manila Observatory Annual Report

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Under the program highlights, the projects/activities of the Regional Climate Systems (RCS) program of the Climate Studies Division:

Project:  Rainfall Atlas for the Philippines

Initial work on climate rainfall atlas was based on simple mixed layer model which gave fairly realistic rainfall patterns

Follow up to this included investigation into the feasibility of applying more realistic three-dimensional models such as ARPS, RAMS, RegCM, and MM5

Initial results with RAMS were not promising

Decided to apply MM5 using new dual processor computer

Project:  Climate and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

Started research on climate downscaling via artificial neural networks

Project:  Land Use and Climate Interaction

Continued research on impact of growing urbanization in Metro Manila on temperature using MM5

Project:  Regional Climate Modeling (RegCM)

Set up RegCM system based on the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) workshop on regional climate modeling

Source: Manila Observatory Annual Report

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Under the program highlights, the projects/activities of the Regional Climate Change program of the Climate Studies Division:

1. Development of a monthly rainfall atlas for the Philippines

The plan is to have maps for each month, which show the geographical distribution of rainfall in terms of isohyets of total rainfall.  In order to produce high-resolution maps, we will formulate a method of estimating rainfall by combining three sources of information:  observed rainfall at rain gauge stations, satellite-estimated rainfall and rainfall obtained by a dynamical model of the atmosphere.

1. Research work on climatic changes due to urbanization in Metro Manila

This work is aimed at determining the changes in various climatic elements over Metro Manila and its vicinity by using atmospheric models.

1. GPS-based precipitable water vapor profiling

The Global Positioning System of JPL is being used to derive column profiles of precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the tropospheric wet delay in satellite signal propagation.  A continuous record of PWV in this part of the world is seen as instrumental in monitoring the distribution patterns of water vapor, the most important greenhouse gas.

Source: Manila Observatory Annual Report

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The five research programs that constitute the work of the Climate Studies Division are:

1. Urban air quality

2. Regional climate change

3. Climate change capacity development

4. Environmental geomatics

5. Instrumentation and technology development

Projects under the Regional Climate Change program:

1. Development of monthly rainfall atlas for the Philippines

The ultimate objective of the rainfall atlas project is to produce high-resolution climatological rainfall maps for the Philippines.  The plan is to have maps for each month, which show the geographical distribution of rainfall in terms of isohyets of total rainfall.  In order to produce high-resolution maps, we will formulate a method of estimating rainfall by combining three sources of information:  observed rainfall at rain gauge stations, satellite-estimated rainfall and rainfall obtained by a dynamical model of the atmosphere.  The dynamical model will give distributions of rainfall due to orographic effects.

It will be noted that rain gauge observations give accurate by low-resolution (about 100 km horizontal resolution) rainfall values.  On the other hand, satellite observations and model results will provide high-resolution (about 10 km horizontal resolution) but less accurate rainfall values.  Hence, by combining these three sources of information, we hope to obtain a high resolution and moderately accurate geographical rainfall distribution.

During the first half of this year, we were able to formulate a method for determining rainfall distributions which combine the rainfall information from rain gauge data and from integrations of the dynamical model.  The method used for combining these is basically an objective analysis technique.  Fortran code has already been written to compute rainfall distribution using this objective analysis method.  The next task under the project is to incorporate satellite observations in this method.  Due to other pressing projects, this task has been momentarily placed on hold.

1. Climatic changes due to the urbanization of Metro Manila

Research work on this topic is essentially a continuation of research done in the previous year.  The final goal of the project is to determine the changes in various climatic elements over Metro Manila and vicinity by using atmospheric mdoels.  In the past, we developed a theoretical model to determine rainfall changes due to urbanization using idealized conditions such as a straight coastline and hydrostatic balance.  During this year, we began using the more sophisticated ARPS model which assumes a non-hydrostatic atmosphere and includes better representation of heat and momentum fluxes from the ground.

We have just finished experiments designed to determine the climatological changes in rainfall patterns accompanying the increase in the size of the urban area.  The most interesting result is the fact that the change in rainfall accompanying urbanization is not one of intensity but of location.  A scientific report is currently being written to describe the results of our model experiments.  Our future plan under this project is to use the ARPS model for conducting three-dimensional simulations, which incorporate the Metro Manila terrain.

1. GPS-based precipitable water vapor profiling

The JPL GPS that has been used for crustal deformation studies is also being tapped to derive column profiles of precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the tropospheric wet delay in satellite signal propagation.  A continuous record of PWV in this part of the world is seen as instrumental in monitoring the distribution patterns of water vapor, the most important greenhouse gas.

Papers and publications:

Cruz, F. A. and J. T. Villarin, An Analysis of the Precipitable Water Vapor observed over the PIMO GPS station.  Proceedings of the 19th National Physics Congress (Philippines).

Cheng Chua, K. U., F. A. Cruz, E. C. Castillo, and J. T. Villarin, Rainfall simulation using the Fifth-Generation PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). Proceedings of the 19th National Physics Congress (Philippines).

Castillo, E. C. and J. T. Villarin, Representation of a 1961-90 Climatological Rainfall Baseline. Proceedings of the 19th National Physics Congress (Philippines).

Estoque, M. A. and J. T. Villarin, Urban Climate and Architectural Design.  Proceedings of the National Symposium on Filipino Architecture and Design, University of the Philippines, March 2001.

Source: Manila Observatory Annual Report

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These activities (3 of 15) marked the accomplishments of the Climate Studies Division in 2000.  Most of these were in the area of climate research.  Only a handful of studies were made on air quality.

1. In order to confirm the high wind power potential of Northern Luzon, PNOC commissioned the Division to verify the projected power output of a planned wind farm in Burgos and the surrounding areas.  Calculations were based on meteorological data from Laoag airport and NPC sites.

2. Preferred Energy Initiatives also commissioned the Division to remap the output of the Philippine Wind Power Project (c/o DOST, DOE, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (USA)) to include administrative markers as a way to locate the regions of optimum wind power output.  A national map was produced which integrated all the wind data from the regions.  Eighteen local maps were also developed, consisting of one each from the 13 regions, one each for Cordillera, Palawan, and NCR, and 2 maps for the ARMM.

3. The Division was also an active participant of the 18th Samahan ng Pisika ng Pilipinas (SPP) Congress held in Puerto Princesa, Palawan last October.  Five papers were presented:

1. Villarin, J. T. and G. T. Narisma, Regional Climate Simulations of Summer Rainfall over the Philippines.

2. Narisma, G. T. and J. T. Villarin, Global Climate Forecasting by the Simplex Projection Method.

3. Estoque, M. A., M. V. Sta. Maria, and J. T. Villarin, The Southwestern Luzon Climatological Rainfall Maximum.

4. Lagrosas, N., J. Holdsworth, J. T. Villarin, and S. Dorado, Optical Depth Measurements of Clouds Using a Mie Scattering LIDAR System.

5. Castillo, E. and M. Estoque, Climate Changes in Rainfall due to Urbanization.

Source: Manila Observatory Annual Report

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Climate Studies Division

Head:  Fr. Jose Ramon T. Villarin, S. J.

Research under the Climate Studies Division has two main foci:

1. Climate Change – In the face of current assaults on the global and regional climate, the primary objective of the Climate Change Research section is the mitigation of and adaptation to regional climate change.

2. Air Quality – In the light of continued degradation of urban atmospheres especially in Metro Manila, the main objective of the Air Quality section is the protection of the urban atmospheric environment.

Under the Climate Change Research (2 of 5 research topics):

1. Regional Climate Modeling

Under the supervision of Dr. Mariano Estoque, the Regional Climate Modeling Group (RCMG) has been tasked to engage in the challenging work of seasonal forecasting.  It is in this context that the group is now studying the regional effects on rainfall of El Nino and La Nina.  It is also updating a climatology of solar radiation and rainfall distribution, in the hope of coming up with an updated Philippine Climate Atlas, similar to the one produced by Fr. Jose Coronas, SJ.  This work is done using current satellite technology, actual rainfall station data, and reanalysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA) and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (UK).  Efforts are also underway to get the RegCM regional climate model working with the meager computing resources of the CSD. The objective of this work is to supplement the work of seasonal forecasting.

1. Climate Friendly Technology

CSD is venturing into wind energy by initially engaging in wind power resource assessment.  This entails meteorological analysis of wind data and model results to assess the feasibility of installing wind farms at various potential sites in the Philippines.  A small project on wind power assessment in Northern Luzon is now underway.

Source: Manila Observatory Annual Report

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Climate Studies Division

Head:  Fr. Jose Ramon T. Villarin, S. J.

The Climate Studies Division has two main research:

1. Atmospheric Environment

2. Philippine Climate Research

Among the projects that form the core of the Philippine Climate Research (2 of 6 projects) are:

1. Philippine Climate Atlas Project – to review  and validate the current climate classification scheme adopted by PAGASA from Fr. Jose Coronas (the modified Coronas scheme).  This climate scheme will be re-evaluated using satellite rainfall, solar radiation, and meteorological mapping.

Project Consultant:  Mariano A. Estoque, Ph.D.

Remarks:  Anticipated project start date on April 1998

1. Climate Impact Research Project – to assess via regional climate modeling the projected impact of climate change and consequent vulnerability of various regions in the archipelago.  For instance, this may include impacts of sea level rise, saline intrusion, and hydrological extremes on coastal and inland resources.  This will be a joint exercise with the National Disaster Reduction Branch (NDRB) of PAGASA.

Remarks: Project on the pipeline

Source: Manila Observatory Annual Report