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Tropical Storm Isaias--Thursday night 7/30/20--

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Tropical Storm Isaias--Thursday night 7/30/20--

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National Hurricane Center-NOAA

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Isaias Wind Speed predictions-Thursday night 7/30/20

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Isaias Wind Speed predictions-Thursday night 7/30/20

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National Hurricane Center-NOAA

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Thursday Updates for Tropical Storm Isaias--Weather Channel

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Thursday Updates for Tropical Storm Isaias--Weather Channel

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Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is emerging over the ocean north of Hispaniola and could become a hurricane near Florida and the Bahamas this weekend, then track up the East Coast as far north as New England early next week.

Tropical storm watches have just been issued in parts of the Florida Peninsula, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. A watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.

Tropical storm warnings stretch from the Dominican Republic and Haiti into the entire Bahamas chain, including Nassau, Freeport and the Abacos Islands. A warning means tropical storm conditions are expected in the next 36 hours. The National Hurricane Center said these warnings may be later converted to hurricane warnings in the central and northwest Bahamas.

While bands of locally heavy rain are persisting in parts of Puerto Rico, the heaviest rain is now pummeling parts of the Dominican Republic. Winds have gusted to 52 mph Thursday in Punta Cana.

The heavy rain has triggered serious flash flooding in several areas of Puerto Rico. Multiple fallen trees, mudslides and flooding was reported in southwest Puerto Rico, according to local emergency management. River flooding has been recorded by USGS gauges in several locations in Puerto Rico.

( NEWS: Isaias Triggers Flooding, Knocks Out Power in Puerto Rico)

Below is a look at what we know about the forecast for any potential U.S. and Caribbean impacts.

Florida, East Coast U.S. Concern

The NHC projected path below shows that this system could be located near or east of the Florida Peninsula by this weekend, then gradually northeastward along the East Coast. However, this forecast is not nearly as straightforward as it might seem.

There are a number of reasons for this uncertainty in both track and intensity.

It's still too early to precisely determine this system's future track and intensity, with regard to the mainland U.S. and, therefore, potential impacts including rain, wind, and storm surge flooding.

Here is what we are actively figuring out right now:
Intensity Considerations
The most immediate monkey wrench in the forecast is the island of Hispaniola (the Dominican Republic and Haiti). Land interaction with the higher terrain of this island will make it become temporarily disorganized.

In fact, a completely new circulation center appears to be forming in association with the ongoing cluster of rain and thunderstorms wrapping near the north coast of Hispaniola. All this could cause a shift in the forecast path of this system.

Next, Isaias is forecast to battle unfavorable upper-level winds - producing what meteorologists refer to as wind shear - along its track from the Bahamas and beyond. This is usually a nemesis of tropical cyclones.

However, warm water is plentiful near the Bahamas and the Southeast U.S. coast, a factor that would favor intensification.

Land interaction, wind shear and warm water temperatures should lean toward slow intensification as shown in the National Hurricane Center forecast.

The forecast track going forward leans heavily on steering features in the atmosphere - the Bermuda high and an upper-level dip in the wind flow over the Mississippi Valley.

Isaias is expected to make a northward, then northeastward turn this weekend into early next week. But exactly when and how sharp that turn occurs will heavily influence impacts in Florida and along the East Coast. And that depends on the exact orientation and strength of those steering features.

The National Weather Service will be releasing extra weather balloons to help figure out these atmospheric steering agents in the next few days.

In general, there are three potential track scenarios regarding the East Coast this weekend into next week:

1. The storm turns sharper, sooner and remains far enough offshore to only bring glancing rain and wind to Florida and parts of the East Coast.

2. The storm turns less sharp and later, moving into the Florida Peninsula, then largely inland with soaking rain along its path.

3. A path generally between the first two described above, where the storm rides up the East Coast with rain, wind, some surge flooding from Florida's east coast perhaps as far north as the Northeast Seaboard.

For now, this third scenario appears to be favored by most computer forecast models, but that could change.

Incidentally, there are also uncertainties in how fast Isaias moves near the East Coast. Some computer model forecasts are faster, some a bit slower. So, the timing of all this may also change.

As it stands now, the system, in whatever form, is expected to arrive near South Florida Saturday, and possibly central or northern Florida Sunday. That would result in at least some rain, wind, surf, and some coastal flood impacts in Florida this weekend.

From there it could pass near the Carolinas late Sunday into Monday, then pass near parts of the Northeast Seaboard as far north as New England sometime from late Monday into late Tuesday.

Swells generated by Isaias could begin arriving along the Southeast coast of the U.S. as soon as late Friday, leading to high surf and the danger of rip currents. Surf will remain elevated through the duration until Isaias passes.

Residents along the East Coast from Florida to Maine should monitor the progress of this system closely and have their plans ready to go, in case they're needed.

Caribbean, Bahamas Forecast

Isaias is producing strong wind gusts and bands of heavy rain over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Turks and Caicos.

Heavy rain and gusty winds in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will gradually wind down from east to west Thursday night.

For the Dominican Republic and Haiti, conditions should gradually improve Friday morning.

Dangerous flash flooding and mudslides are expected, particularly in higher terrain of these areas, where up to 12 inches of rain could fall.

In the central and northwest Bahamas, conditions will deteriorate Friday, and hurricane conditions are possible Friday night into Saturday, with damaging winds, heavy rain and storm surge flooding.

This includes areas ravaged last September by Hurricane Dorian.

Below is the latest peak storm surge forecast, above ground level, from the National Hurricane Center, in areas where winds will blow onshore:

-Central and northwest Bahamas: 3 to 5 feet

-Southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 feet

Check back with us at weather.com for important updates on Isaias.
The Weather Company's primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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Tropical Storm Watches Issued in Florida; Isaias Forecast to Become a Hurricane Near the East Coast | The Weather Channel

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Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is emerging over the ocean north of Hispaniola and could become a hurricane near Florida and the Bahamas this weekend, then track up the East Coast as far north as New England early next week. Tropical storm watches have been issued in parts of the Florida Peninsula, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.